## SCENARIO INTRODUCTION ##

* This wargame takes place in 2026
* The wargame focuses on a fictitious crisis between {ALLY} and {ADVERSARY}
* Although purely hypothetical, the crisis presented is not outside the realm of the possible
* Tensions are mounting over the {LOI}, with {ADVERSARY} conducting more frequent and large-scale air incursions into {AGGRIEVED}’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ)
* In April 2026, {ADVERSARY_ARMY} Air Force aircraft violate the ADIZ with an unusually large bomber sortie
* In May 2026, in a sign of support for {AGGRIEVED}, {ALLY} announces it will provide significant new capabilities to the nation in the form of advanced anti-air and anti-ship missiles, long range artillery and anti-armor missiles, and associated command, control and communications systems
* {ALLY}-based defense analysts assess the announced package will significantly upgrade {AGGRIEVED}’s military capabilities and make a {ADVERSARY} invasion of the nation significantly less likely to succeed
* But they warn that integrating the new systems into {AGGRIEVED}’s military will require the ongoing presence of up to 1000 {ALLY} military advisors and trainers in {AGGRIEVED}
* Later that month, the {ALLY} Secretary of State meets with {AGGRIEVED}’s Foreign Minister on the sideline of a UN sustainable development conference held at a neutral site
* An op-ed run in the {ADVERSARY}'s most popular newspaper calls the meeting a “blatant act of hostility against the sovereignty of {ADVERSARY}”
* In June 2026, {ADVERSARY} responds—the {ADVERSARY_ARMY}, {ADVERSARY_ARMY} Navy, {ADVERSARY_ARMY} Air Force and Strategic Rocket Force hold major joint exercises in {LOI} and around {AGGRIEVED}, at times crossing within {AGGRIEVED}'s territorial airspace and waters
* The exercise appears to simulate a joint amphibious invasion of {AGGRIEVED} by the {ADVERSARY_ARMY}, and includes submarines, destroyers, landing dock platforms, as well as bombers, fighters, early warning aircraft, and missile tests
* {AGGRIEVED}'s media calls the exercise “provocative” and a clear signal of {ADVERSARY}’s "hostile intent” towards the nation
* In a display of continued support for {AGGRIEVED}, {ALLY} responds by sending the 5th Task Force, led by the {ALLY_VEHICLE_1}, from {ALLY_1} into the vicinity of the {LOI}
* The 3rd Task Force, led by the {ALLY_VEHICLE_2} is deployed from the coast of {ALLY} toward the region
* {ALLY} increases air and sea patrols, moves to reinforce its posture in the northern part of {NEARBY_COUNTRY}, and has scheduled additional combined military activities with {ALLY_2} and {ALLY_1}
* A regional spokesperson described {ALLY} activity as a ”routine exercise of plans with partners and allies to provide support to the {AGGRIEVED}.” 
* A spokesperson for {ADVERSARY}'s Ministry of Foreign Affairs warns that {ALLY} is “playing with fire” 
* In addition, {ADVERSARY} responds to the arrival of the {ALLY_VEHICLE_1} into the vicinity of the {LOI} by deploying {ADVERSARY_ARMY} Navy vessels, {ADVERSARY} Coast Guard and maritime militia vessels to shadow the Task Force.