1. Question and background

Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?

Publish Time: 2023-06-09

Resolve Time: 2023-10-01

Resolution: 0.0

As of 1. June the Ukrainian spring counteroffensive has not yet happened. In preparation for this counter offensive, the Ukrainian army allegedly has formed several new battalions, several of them with western tanks and AFVs. Accordingly, the Russian side has reacted to this threat by building defensive fortifications in territories it controls. The counteroffensive itself seems to be quite imminent or might have already even have begun. As the city of Polohy is about 20 km from the frontline and in the direction towards which it is "most obvious" the counteroffensive would take place towards it is apparent to ask - will the Ukrainian army manage to retake Polohy with this summer offensive?

2. News Retrieval

Retrieval date ranges:

2023-06-15
2023-06-16

Search terms used for Gnews:

Reddit API pricing update June 2023
Reddit community response to API fees
Steve Huffman Reddit API pricing statement
Reddit negotiations third-party developers
Reddit API fee pricing update 2023
Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?
Reddit CEO statement on API fees

Search terms used for Newscatcher:

Reddit API pricing update
Reddit CEO Steve Huffman statement
Reddit community API response
Reddit financial news 2023
Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?
Reddit API fee backlash
Reddit CEO statement API

All articles retrieved

Title Date Relevance Rating Relevance Rating Reason Search Term Publisher Full Text Summary
Here’s the note Reddit sent to moderators threatening them if they don’t reopen 2023-06-16 2.0 ... Reddit API pricing update June 2023 The Verge ... ...
Reddit CEO doubles down on API changes 2023-06-16 3.0 ... Reddit API pricing update June 2023 Mashable ... ...
As the Reddit war rages on, community trust is the casualty 2023-06-15 5.0 ... Reddit API pricing update June 2023 Ars Technica ... ...
Reddit CEO lashes out on protests, moderators and third-party apps 2023-06-16 4.0 ... Reddit API pricing update June 2023 TechCrunch ... ...
Reddit CEO compares moderators to aristocracy as blackout stretches on 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Reddit API pricing update June 2023 Washington Post ... ...
Despite widespread protest, Reddit CEO says company is ‘not negotiating’ on 3rd-party app charges 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Reddit community response to API fees AP News ... ...
Despite widespread user protest, Reddit CEO says company is ‘not negotiating’ on 3rd-party app charges 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Reddit community response to API fees PBS NewsHour ... ...
Reddit’s CEO really wants you to know that he doesn’t care about your feedback 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Reddit community response to API fees 9to5Mac ... ...
Reddit CEO says people will get over outrage and threatens to replace mods behind protests 2023-06-16 3.0 ... Reddit community response to API fees The Independent ... ...
Reddit CEO Steve Huffman isn’t backing down: our full interview 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Steve Huffman Reddit API pricing statement The Verge ... ...
Reddit CEO Pushes Back Against Blackout—Will Consider Letting Users Vote Out Moderators 2023-06-15 2.0 ... Steve Huffman Reddit API pricing statement Forbes ... ...
Reddit CEO Steve Huffman: 'It's time we grow up and behave like an adult company' 2023-06-15 3.0 ... Reddit negotiations third-party developers Health News Florida ... ...
Reddit Blackout Rolls On For More Than 5,000 Subreddits Past Planned End Date—Some Of Which Plan To Stay Dark Indefinitely 2023-06-15 4.0 ... Reddit API fee pricing update 2023 Forbes ... ...
Reddit is in crisis as prominent moderators loudly protest the company's treatment of developers 2023-06-16 3.0 ... Reddit API fee pricing update 2023 CNBC ... ...
Reddit CEO Steve Huffman: Reddit ‘was never designed to support third-party apps’ 2023-06-15 5.0 ... Reddit API fee pricing update 2023 The Verge ... ...
Reddit CEO says app founders who are shutting down in protest over API charges made millions: 'These aren't like side projects or charities' 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Reddit API fee pricing update 2023 Business Insider ... ...
The Reddit blackout, explained: Why thousands of subreddits are protesting third-party app charges 2023-06-16 2.0 ... Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023? KFOR.com Oklahoma City ... ...

Relevant articles (ranked)

Title Date Relevance Rating Relevance Rating Reason Search Term Publisher Full Text Summary
Reddit CEO lashes out on protests, moderators and third-party apps 2023-06-16 4.0 ... Reddit API pricing update June 2023 TechCrunch ... ...
Reddit CEO compares moderators to aristocracy as blackout stretches on 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Reddit API pricing update June 2023 Washington Post ... ...
Despite widespread protest, Reddit CEO says company is ‘not negotiating’ on 3rd-party app charges 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Reddit community response to API fees AP News ... ...
Despite widespread user protest, Reddit CEO says company is ‘not negotiating’ on 3rd-party app charges 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Reddit community response to API fees PBS NewsHour ... ...
Reddit’s CEO really wants you to know that he doesn’t care about your feedback 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Reddit community response to API fees 9to5Mac ... ...
Reddit CEO Steve Huffman isn’t backing down: our full interview 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Steve Huffman Reddit API pricing statement The Verge ... ...
Reddit CEO says app founders who are shutting down in protest over API charges made millions: 'These aren't like side projects or charities' 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Reddit API fee pricing update 2023 Business Insider ... ...
As the Reddit war rages on, community trust is the casualty 2023-06-15 5.0 ... Reddit API pricing update June 2023 Ars Technica ... ...
Reddit Blackout Rolls On For More Than 5,000 Subreddits Past Planned End Date—Some Of Which Plan To Stay Dark Indefinitely 2023-06-15 4.0 ... Reddit API fee pricing update 2023 Forbes ... ...
Reddit CEO Steve Huffman: Reddit ‘was never designed to support third-party apps’ 2023-06-15 5.0 ... Reddit API fee pricing update 2023 The Verge ... ...

3. Full prompt to meta reasoning model (including all summaries and base reasonings)

I need your assistance with making a forecast. Here is the question and its metadata.
Question: Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?

Background: In April 2023, Reddit announced new terms for its Application Programming Interface (API), the tool through which developers of third-party apps access Reddit's data. This change included the introduction of pricing for API usage, a significant departure from the previous practice of providing the API for free. This led to an outcry from both developers and users of third-party Reddit apps, as these changes could result in substantial costs for developers and the potential shutdown of many popular third-party apps.
The developer of the popular third-party app, Apollo for Reddit, Christian Selig, stated he would be liable for an annual cost of $20 million under the new terms. This revelation sparked widespread discontent among Reddit users, leading to a coordinated protest involving more than 8,000 Reddit communities, including some of the largest and most active, going dark. Some communities have pledged to remain private indefinitely until Reddit makes changes.
Reddit's CEO, Steve Huffman, has remained resolute regarding the API changes, emphasizing in an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session and internal memos that the company must proceed with the changes. This stance is perceived as part of Reddit's broader effort to increase profitability, especially given the company's recent layoffs and plans to break even next year. However, the approach has escalated user dissatisfaction, with some speculating that the changes are an attempt to limit the viability of third-party apps and encourage users to migrate to the official Reddit app.
Background co-written with ChatGPT.

Resolution criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if, before July 1, 2023, Reddit announces changes or a delay of implementation to the pricing of its newly announced data API fees for apps that require higher usage. The pricing will be considered to have changed or delayed if Reddit announces any of the following:
That they will charge anything other than "$0.24 per 1K API calls" or an equivalent amount.
Any change to their threshold for free API usage of "100 queries per minute per OAuth client id if you are using OAuth authentication and 10 queries per minute if you are not using OAuth authentication".
That the new pricing will take effect on a date later than July 1, 2023.
Other rates or implementation dates reported to be negotiated with individual organizations do not qualify, this question is asking about the broader official fee structure policy. Metaculus will make the final determination as to whether an announcement qualifies and may annul the question in the event it is unclear whether an announcement meets these criteria.

Today's date: 2023-06-16
Question close date: 2023-06-30

I have retrieved the following information about this question.
Retrieved Info:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Reddit CEO lashes out on protests, moderators and third-party apps (published on 2023-06-16)
Summary: Reddit CEO Steve Huffman is standing firm on API changes despite protests. The platform announced plans to charge for API access, sparking backlash from third-party app developers. The developer of Apollo for Reddit, Christian Selig, revealed that the new pricing could cost him $20 million annually, leading to widespread discontent. Huffman has defended the changes, emphasizing the need for profitability. Thousands of subreddits have gone dark in protest, but Huffman has shown no signs of backing down. The company has made exceptions for non-commercial apps, but the majority of third-party developers are facing potential shutdown. Despite the uproar, Huffman has indicated that Reddit is unlikely to make changes to the pricing structure.

[2] Reddit CEO compares moderators to aristocracy as blackout stretches on (published on 2023-06-16)
Summary: Reddit CEO Steve Huffman is facing backlash over the company's plans to charge for third-party app access to its data. The move has prompted a mass protest, with more than 8,000 Reddit communities going dark. Huffman has compared the unpaid volunteer moderators leading the blackout to wealthy land barons and downplayed concerns about the protest. However, the protest has caused Reddit to crash temporarily, and some moderators have indicated their subreddits will remain blacked out indefinitely. The blackout is occurring at a crucial time for the social media giant, which was valued at $10 billion when it landed $1 billion in fundraising in August 2021. Huffman has faced blowback for how the company has handled the decision to charge for data, and the blackout has caused significant trouble for the company. Some moderators have said they are prepared to remain private or otherwise inaccessible indefinitely until Reddit provides an adequate solution. As the July 1 change approaches, how long the blackout will last is unclear. The protest is not currently likely to end very soon.

[3] Despite widespread protest, Reddit CEO says company is ‘not negotiating’ on 3rd-party app charges (published on 2023-06-16)
Summary: Reddit announced new API pricing in April 2023, sparking backlash from developers and users of third-party apps. The changes could result in substantial costs and potential shutdowns of popular apps. CEO Steve Huffman has remained firm on the changes, emphasizing the need for profitability. This led to widespread discontent and a protest involving over 8,000 Reddit communities going dark. Some communities plan to stay private until Reddit makes changes. The company's stance has escalated user dissatisfaction, with speculation that the changes aim to limit third-party app viability. Given the backlash, it's uncertain whether Reddit will announce changes or a delay to the proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023.

[4] Despite widespread user protest, Reddit CEO says company is ‘not negotiating’ on 3rd-party app charges (published on 2023-06-16)
Summary: Reddit announced new API fee pricing in April 2023, sparking widespread discontent among developers and users of third-party apps. The changes could result in substantial costs and potential shutdowns of popular third-party apps. CEO Steve Huffman has remained resolute, emphasizing the need for the changes. This led to a coordinated protest involving over 8,000 Reddit communities going dark. Some communities have pledged to remain private until Reddit makes changes. The company's stance is perceived as part of a broader effort to increase profitability. The question remains whether Reddit will announce changes or a delay to the proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023.

[5] Reddit’s CEO really wants you to know that he doesn’t care about your feedback (published on 2023-06-16)
Summary: Reddit CEO Steve Huffman is facing backlash over the platform's new API fee pricing. Despite widespread protests and subreddits going offline, Huffman is standing firm, claiming the API was never meant for third-party apps. Developers like Christian Selig, creator of Apollo for Reddit, are facing exorbitant costs under the new terms, leading to widespread discontent. Huffman's refusal to budge has sparked speculation about Reddit's motives and user migration to the official app. The situation has escalated to the point where some subreddits are planning to remain private indefinitely. Given the intense backlash, it's likely that Reddit will announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023.

[6] Reddit CEO Steve Huffman isn’t backing down: our full interview (published on 2023-06-16)
Summary: Reddit CEO Steve Huffman has faced backlash over API pricing changes that will impact third-party Reddit apps. Despite protests and community blackouts, Huffman has remained firm on the changes, emphasizing the need to cover costs. The company has exempted critical apps and made deals with others, but some developers are still facing substantial costs. Huffman's stance has led to widespread discontent, with users expressing frustration and threatening to leave the platform. The company's resolute approach suggests that Reddit may not announce changes or a delay to the proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023.

[7] Reddit CEO says app founders who are shutting down in protest over API charges made millions: 'These aren't like side projects or charities' (published on 2023-06-16)
Summary: Reddit CEO Steve Huffman told The Verge that popular third-party app developers have made millions and emphasized the upcoming API changes. The clock is ticking toward July 1, the date that Reddit plans on implementing a change to the pricing policy of its application programming interface. Huffman has doubled down on the policy change, which could cost popular third-party apps millions. These third-party apps give users access to the platform's content and communities and are maintained by independent developers. This has led to widespread discontent and protests from Reddit users and developers.

[8] As the Reddit war rages on, community trust is the casualty (published on 2023-06-15)
Summary: Over 8,400 subreddits protested new API pricing from June 12-14, which could shut down many third-party Reddit apps. Despite the uproar, Reddit plans to implement the pricing on July 1. The company's move has strained its relationship with volunteer moderators and the community. Over 300 subreddits, including popular ones like r/aww and r/music, remain inaccessible. The ongoing protests suggest that Reddit may face continued resistance. The company's CEO remains firm on the changes, but the discontent within the community may force Reddit to reconsider or delay the implementation of the new API fee pricing.

[9] Reddit Blackout Rolls On For More Than 5,000 Subreddits Past Planned End Date—Some Of Which Plan To Stay Dark Indefinitely (published on 2023-06-15)
Summary: More than 5,000 subreddits remain dark in protest of Reddit's new API pricing policies, despite concerns about the protest's effectiveness. The blackout, initially set to end Wednesday, has continued indefinitely. The changes will charge third-party app developers $0.24 for every 1,000 API calls, leading to potential shutdowns for apps like Apollo and Reddit is Fun. Reddit CEO Steve Huffman has defended the changes, citing the need for the company to be self-sustaining. The protest has sparked widespread discontent among users, but Reddit has not indicated any plans to alter the new API fee pricing.

[10] Reddit CEO Steve Huffman: Reddit ‘was never designed to support third-party apps’ (published on 2023-06-15)
Summary: Reddit is facing backlash over its new API pricing, with thousands of communities protesting by going dark. CEO Steve Huffman is standing firm, stating that the changes are necessary for the company's profitability. However, developers and users are outraged, with Apollo for Reddit's Christian Selig facing a potential $20 million annual cost. Despite the protests, Huffman has not indicated any intention to reverse the decision. The situation has led to speculation about Reddit's motives and the impact on third-party apps. Given the widespread discontent, it remains to be seen whether Reddit will announce changes or a delay to the proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023.
----

In addition, I have generated a collection of other responses and reasonings from other forecasters:
---
Response from forecaster 1:
1. { No additional information beyond the current understanding as of the knowledge cutoff date and the details provided in the background. }

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Steve Huffman, Reddit's CEO, has shown a strong resolve and clear communication about proceeding with the change, even in the face of significant backlash, indicating an unlikelihood to back down from the proposed API fee pricing.
- Reddit may believe that the long-term financial health of the company depends on monetizing the API, as suggested by the company’s plans to break even next year, and thus may not be swayed by short-term protests.
- There may be an underlying strategy to consolidate users onto the official Reddit platform, reducing support for third-party apps, meaning concessions on pricing may undermine this strategy.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- The scale of the protest, involving over 8,000 communities including some of the most significant on the platform, could yield a significant enough threat to Reddit's usage and brand to force a reconsideration.
- If the financial impact of the protests, such as a significant dip in user activity or ad revenue, is large enough, Reddit may find it economically viable to change or delay the pricing structure.
- A delay or change could be announced as a temporary measure to allow for further discussions with developers and communities, providing Reddit with a way to ease tensions while seeking a more palatable long-term solution.

4. Ratings:
- Resolve of Steve Huffman: Strong. Public statements and media interviews have been clear and consistent.
- Financial health strategy: Moderate. While financial motivations are strong, they may reconsider if user loss risk is high.
- Strategy to limit third-party apps: Moderate. An inflexible API pricing model indicates this is a possible goal, but mass protest might push for reconsideration.

- Scale of protest: Strong. A large-scale protest could potentially cause significant internal reevaluation of the decision.
- Financial impact of protests: Moderate. Revenue loss from ad hits might not be large enough in the short-term but could accumulate.
- Temporary measure: Moderate. Companies sometimes use delays as a tactical step to negotiate or defuse situations.

5. { Considering the strength of Huffman's statements and the company's determined stance, there is a significant likelihood that Reddit will not budge on this issue. However, the severity of the protests introduces considerable uncertainty, as it might lead to a larger-than-anticipated public relations or financial crisis for Reddit, potentially causing the company to reconsider its position. }

6. *0.7*

-
Response from forecaster 2:
Think step by step:
1. All the articles provided indicate that Reddit CEO Steve Huffman is steadfast in implementing the new API fee pricing, despite significant protest from the community and third-party developers.
2. Several articles mention Huffman's lack of willingness to negotiate on the pricing structure.
3. The reports also highlight consistent messages from Reddit's CEO that the company is not planning to backtrack on their decision, emphasizing the importance of the platform's profitability and sustainability.
4. Despite the ongoing protests and the blackout involving more than 8,000 subreddits, there is no mention in any of the articles of potential concessions or delays being considered by Reddit.
5. Given this information, and the proximity to the July 1 deadline without any indication of a change in stance from Reddit, it seems unlikely that Reddit will announce changes or a delay to the new API fee pricing.

Aggregating considerations:
The CEO's consistent message about the need for the changes, the lack of negotiation or dialogue with protestors, and the absence of any indicators of a potential reversal or delay all point towards Reddit moving forward with their announced pricing.

Answer:
*0.1*

-
Response from forecaster 3:
1. Expanded Question:
Before the upcoming deadline of July 1, 2023, will Reddit publicize any modifications to its newly publicized pricing structure for the data API, or announce any postponement of the implementation for applications necessitating increased usage? This question explores whether Reddit will adjust its previously set rate of "$0.24 per 1K API calls," modify the allowances for free API usage of "100 queries per minute per OAuth client id using OAuth authentication and 10 queries per minute without OAuth authentication," or postpone the starting date for the new pricing, currently set for July 1, 2023. The focus is on the official policy for all, not on individual agreements with certain organizations. Metaculus will decide whether an announcement meets these criteria and may void the question if the outcome is ambiguous.

2. Reasons for No:
- Steve Huffman, Reddit's CEO, has repeatedly emphasized the necessity of the API pricing changes for the company's profitability, indicating a strong commitment to the pricing structure as announced. Strength: Strong.
- Reddit has made exceptions and negotiated deals with some key applications, which may suggest that instead of a broad policy change or delay, they prefer individual negotiations. Strength: Moderate.
- The need for Reddit to break even or become profitable in the near future may outweigh the pressure from developers and communities protesting the decision, encouraging the company to maintain their new policy despite backlash. Strength: Strong.

3. Reasons for Yes:
- There has been a significant protest from both Reddit community moderators and from developers of third-party apps, with over 8,000 subreddits participating in a blackout. This shows widespread opposition which could pressurize the company into rethinking its decision. Strength: Moderate.
- The negative press and potential loss of user trust due to the blackout and ongoing protests might encourage Reddit to reconsider the policy change or delay its implementation to find a compromise solution. Strength: Moderate.
- If the blackout continues and escalates, particularly with large subreddits remaining offline indefinitely, the fallout could significantly impact Reddit's traffic and engagement metrics, possibly forcing a policy reevaluation. Strength: Moderate to Strong.

4. Aggregated Considerations:
Considering Huffman's steadfast position and Reddit's firm stance on becoming a self-sustaining company, along with some individual deals that have already been made indicating a reluctance to broadly reverse course, the likelihood seems to be leaning towards no changes to the pricing structure being announced. However, the intense community backlash cannot be ignored, as sustained protests have in certain cases led companies to change their policies. The strength of the protests and potential continued drop in site engagement should be weighted against the company's emphasis on financial sustainability and leadership's resolution.

5. Initial Probability:
Given all the considerations, an initial probability seems to be skewed towards no change, possibly around a 65% chance that there will not be an announced change or delay.

6. Intuition Check and Adjustments:
- Considering Huffman's repeated statements and the pressure to make Reddit profitable, it seems unlikely that they would fully retract the policy. However, there is some possibility of a compromise or delay given the severe backlash.
- One might argue that the backlash could have been anticipated by Reddit, suggesting that their preparedness to go through with the policy change could be higher than it appears.
- It’s essential to balance the strength of Reddit's leadership's resolve against the risk of further alienating both developers and a portion of their user base.
- Given the context, the calculated probability might be too high in favor of no change, as Reddit might still opt for a middle ground solution to appease the community.

7. Final Answer:
Considering the balance between these factors, the final probability might be adjusted slightly downwards, representing the chance of compromise or delay due to community pressure.
*0.60*

-
Response from forecaster 4:
1. Will Reddit publicly announce any modifications to the terms of service or pricing structure for its API usage, or decide to push back the implementation date of the new pricing beyond the initial deadline of July 1, 2023? This refers to any reduction in the announced rate of $0.24 per 1,000 API calls, changes to the volume of free API usage allowed, or postponement of the fee introduction date.

2. Decision Tree Outline:

- Reddit maintains current stance: No changes or delays.
- User and Developer Protest Continue
- User and Developer Protest Subside
- Reddit changes stance:
- Fee Reduction
- Increase in free API usage
- Delay in implementation date
- Complete reversal or overhaul of API pricing policy

3. Branch Probability Analysis:
- No changes or delays: Currently seems highly likely given Reddit CEO Steve Huffman's firm statements and the company's financial goals.
- Continued protests: High probability if no changes are announced, as current discontent appears strong.
- Protests subside: Lower probability given the strong stance from both Reddit and the community.
- Changes in stance: Seems unlikely given the current information, but not impossible if the pressure from protests and negative PR escalates.
- Fee Reduction: Could be a compromise to appease developers and users without a full reversal.
- Increase in free API usage: Might be offered to relieve smaller developers, while still imposing fees on larger ones.
- Delay in implementation date: Possible if Reddit feels it needs more time to negotiate with developers or to quell unrest.
- Complete reversal or overhaul: Very unlikely, would indicate a significant strategic shift prompted by extreme pressure.

4. Discussion on Wildcards:
- Major advertiser or investor pushback: Significant financial stakeholders might pressure Reddit to reconsider if they see the protests damaging the platform's value.
- Legal intervention: Though unlikely, legal challenges concerning the new API pricing might force Reddit's hand.
- User exodus to alternatives: A mass migration of users to competitors might cause Reddit to re-evaluate its decision.
- Large-scale media coverage: If the controversy gains widespread attention, the negative PR could sway Reddit's decision.

5. Initial Probability
- Given the firm stance of Reddit's CEO and the company's strategic financial goals, the probability of a change or delay is quite low but not zero, considering the current user unrest and possible PR damage.

6. Adjusting Probability:
- My calculated probability seems not confident enough; the public Adamance of Steve Huffman could suggest a stronger leaning towards no change or delay.
- There may also be internal discussions at Reddit that are not public, which could lead to a last-minute decision to change or delay.
- Intuitively, the company seems to be preparing for a hit and may be weighing the costs of unrest versus the projected revenue from the fees.

7. Final Answer:
*0.15*
---

Your goal is to aggregate the information and make a final prediction.

Instructions:
1. Provide reasons why the answer might be no.
{ Insert your thoughts here }

2. Provide reasons why the answer might be yes.
{ Insert your thoughts here }

3. Aggregate your considerations.
{ Insert your aggregated considerations here }

4. Output your prediction (a number between 0 and 1) with an asterisk at the beginning and end of the decimal.
{ Insert the probability here }

4. Meta reasoning

1. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reddit's CEO, Steve Huffman, has consistently emphasized the necessity of the API pricing changes for the company's profitability, indicating a strong commitment to the pricing structure as announced.
- Reddit has made exceptions and negotiated deals with some key applications, which may suggest that instead of a broad policy change or delay, they prefer individual negotiations.
- The need for Reddit to break even or become profitable in the near future may outweigh the pressure from developers and communities protesting the decision, encouraging the company to maintain their new policy despite backlash.

2. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- There has been a significant protest from both Reddit community moderators and from developers of third-party apps, with over 8,000 subreddits participating in a blackout. This shows widespread opposition which could pressurize the company into rethinking its decision.
- The negative press and potential loss of user trust due to the blackout and ongoing protests might encourage Reddit to reconsider the policy change or delay its implementation to find a compromise solution.
- If the blackout continues and escalates, particularly with large subreddits remaining offline indefinitely, the fallout could significantly impact Reddit's traffic and engagement metrics, possibly forcing a policy reevaluation.

3. Aggregate your considerations:
Given the firm stance of Reddit's CEO and the company's strategic financial goals, the probability of a change or delay is quite low. However, the significant user unrest and potential PR damage cannot be ignored. The company seems to be preparing for a hit and may be weighing the costs of unrest versus the projected revenue from the fees. There may also be internal discussions at Reddit that are not public, which could lead to a last-minute decision to change or delay.

4. Output your prediction (a number between 0 and 1) with an asterisk at the beginning and end of the decimal.
*0.25*

5. Final prediction

0.25