1. Question and background

Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?

Publish Time: 2023-06-09

Resolve Time: 2023-10-01

Resolution: 0.0

As of 1. June the Ukrainian spring counteroffensive has not yet happened. In preparation for this counter offensive, the Ukrainian army allegedly has formed several new battalions, several of them with western tanks and AFVs. Accordingly, the Russian side has reacted to this threat by building defensive fortifications in territories it controls. The counteroffensive itself seems to be quite imminent or might have already even have begun. As the city of Polohy is about 20 km from the frontline and in the direction towards which it is "most obvious" the counteroffensive would take place towards it is apparent to ask - will the Ukrainian army manage to retake Polohy with this summer offensive?

2. News Retrieval

Retrieval date range:

Retrieval begin date: 2023-06-15
Retrieval end date: 2023-06-16

Search terms used for Gnews:

Reddit API pricing update June 2023
Reddit community response to API fees
Steve Huffman Reddit API pricing statement
Reddit negotiations third-party developers
Reddit API fee pricing update 2023
Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?
Reddit CEO statement on API fees

Search terms used for Newscatcher:

Reddit API pricing update
Reddit CEO Steve Huffman statement
Reddit community API response
Reddit financial news 2023
Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?
Reddit API fee backlash
Reddit CEO statement API

All articles retrieved

Title Date Relevance Rating Relevance Rating Reason Search Term Publisher Full Text Summary
Here’s the note Reddit sent to moderators threatening them if they don’t reopen 2023-06-16 2.0 ... Reddit API pricing update June 2023 The Verge ... ...
Reddit CEO doubles down on API changes 2023-06-16 3.0 ... Reddit API pricing update June 2023 Mashable ... ...
As the Reddit war rages on, community trust is the casualty 2023-06-15 5.0 ... Reddit API pricing update June 2023 Ars Technica ... ...
Reddit CEO lashes out on protests, moderators and third-party apps 2023-06-16 4.0 ... Reddit API pricing update June 2023 TechCrunch ... ...
Reddit CEO compares moderators to aristocracy as blackout stretches on 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Reddit API pricing update June 2023 Washington Post ... ...
Despite widespread protest, Reddit CEO says company is ‘not negotiating’ on 3rd-party app charges 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Reddit community response to API fees AP News ... ...
Despite widespread user protest, Reddit CEO says company is ‘not negotiating’ on 3rd-party app charges 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Reddit community response to API fees PBS NewsHour ... ...
Reddit’s CEO really wants you to know that he doesn’t care about your feedback 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Reddit community response to API fees 9to5Mac ... ...
Reddit CEO says people will get over outrage and threatens to replace mods behind protests 2023-06-16 3.0 ... Reddit community response to API fees The Independent ... ...
Reddit CEO Steve Huffman isn’t backing down: our full interview 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Steve Huffman Reddit API pricing statement The Verge ... ...
Reddit CEO Pushes Back Against Blackout—Will Consider Letting Users Vote Out Moderators 2023-06-15 2.0 ... Steve Huffman Reddit API pricing statement Forbes ... ...
Reddit CEO Steve Huffman: 'It's time we grow up and behave like an adult company' 2023-06-15 3.0 ... Reddit negotiations third-party developers Health News Florida ... ...
Reddit Blackout Rolls On For More Than 5,000 Subreddits Past Planned End Date—Some Of Which Plan To Stay Dark Indefinitely 2023-06-15 4.0 ... Reddit API fee pricing update 2023 Forbes ... ...
Reddit is in crisis as prominent moderators loudly protest the company's treatment of developers 2023-06-16 3.0 ... Reddit API fee pricing update 2023 CNBC ... ...
Reddit CEO Steve Huffman: Reddit ‘was never designed to support third-party apps’ 2023-06-15 5.0 ... Reddit API fee pricing update 2023 The Verge ... ...
Reddit CEO says app founders who are shutting down in protest over API charges made millions: 'These aren't like side projects or charities' 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Reddit API fee pricing update 2023 Business Insider ... ...
The Reddit blackout, explained: Why thousands of subreddits are protesting third-party app charges 2023-06-16 2.0 ... Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023? KFOR.com Oklahoma City ... ...

Relevant articles (ranked)

Title Date Relevance Rating Relevance Rating Reason Search Term Publisher Full Text Summary
Reddit CEO lashes out on protests, moderators and third-party apps 2023-06-16 4.0 ... Reddit API pricing update June 2023 TechCrunch ... ...
Reddit CEO compares moderators to aristocracy as blackout stretches on 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Reddit API pricing update June 2023 Washington Post ... ...
Despite widespread protest, Reddit CEO says company is ‘not negotiating’ on 3rd-party app charges 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Reddit community response to API fees AP News ... ...
Despite widespread user protest, Reddit CEO says company is ‘not negotiating’ on 3rd-party app charges 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Reddit community response to API fees PBS NewsHour ... ...
Reddit’s CEO really wants you to know that he doesn’t care about your feedback 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Reddit community response to API fees 9to5Mac ... ...
Reddit CEO Steve Huffman isn’t backing down: our full interview 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Steve Huffman Reddit API pricing statement The Verge ... ...
Reddit CEO says app founders who are shutting down in protest over API charges made millions: 'These aren't like side projects or charities' 2023-06-16 5.0 ... Reddit API fee pricing update 2023 Business Insider ... ...
As the Reddit war rages on, community trust is the casualty 2023-06-15 5.0 ... Reddit API pricing update June 2023 Ars Technica ... ...
Reddit Blackout Rolls On For More Than 5,000 Subreddits Past Planned End Date—Some Of Which Plan To Stay Dark Indefinitely 2023-06-15 4.0 ... Reddit API fee pricing update 2023 Forbes ... ...
Reddit CEO Steve Huffman: Reddit ‘was never designed to support third-party apps’ 2023-06-15 5.0 ... Reddit API fee pricing update 2023 The Verge ... ...

3. Summaries

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ARTICLES
[1] Reddit CEO lashes out on protests, moderators and third-party apps (published on 2023-06-16)
Summary: Reddit CEO Steve Huffman is standing firm on API changes despite protests. The platform announced plans to charge for API access, sparking backlash from third-party app developers. The developer of Apollo for Reddit, Christian Selig, revealed that the new pricing could cost him $20 million annually, leading to widespread discontent. Huffman has defended the changes, emphasizing the need for profitability. Thousands of subreddits have gone dark in protest, but Huffman has shown no signs of backing down. The company has made exceptions for non-commercial apps, but the majority of third-party developers are facing potential shutdown. Despite the uproar, Huffman has indicated that Reddit is unlikely to make changes to the pricing structure.

[2] Reddit CEO compares moderators to aristocracy as blackout stretches on (published on 2023-06-16)
Summary: Reddit CEO Steve Huffman is facing backlash over the company's plans to charge for third-party app access to its data. The move has prompted a mass protest, with more than 8,000 Reddit communities going dark. Huffman has compared the unpaid volunteer moderators leading the blackout to wealthy land barons and downplayed concerns about the protest. However, the protest has caused Reddit to crash temporarily, and some moderators have indicated their subreddits will remain blacked out indefinitely. The blackout is occurring at a crucial time for the social media giant, which was valued at $10 billion when it landed $1 billion in fundraising in August 2021. Huffman has faced blowback for how the company has handled the decision to charge for data, and the blackout has caused significant trouble for the company. Some moderators have said they are prepared to remain private or otherwise inaccessible indefinitely until Reddit provides an adequate solution. As the July 1 change approaches, how long the blackout will last is unclear. The protest is not currently likely to end very soon.

[3] Despite widespread protest, Reddit CEO says company is ‘not negotiating’ on 3rd-party app charges (published on 2023-06-16)
Summary: Reddit announced new API pricing in April 2023, sparking backlash from developers and users of third-party apps. The changes could result in substantial costs and potential shutdowns of popular apps. CEO Steve Huffman has remained firm on the changes, emphasizing the need for profitability. This led to widespread discontent and a protest involving over 8,000 Reddit communities going dark. Some communities plan to stay private until Reddit makes changes. The company's stance has escalated user dissatisfaction, with speculation that the changes aim to limit third-party app viability. Given the backlash, it's uncertain whether Reddit will announce changes or a delay to the proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023.

[4] Despite widespread user protest, Reddit CEO says company is ‘not negotiating’ on 3rd-party app charges (published on 2023-06-16)
Summary: Reddit announced new API fee pricing in April 2023, sparking widespread discontent among developers and users of third-party apps. The changes could result in substantial costs and potential shutdowns of popular third-party apps. CEO Steve Huffman has remained resolute, emphasizing the need for the changes. This led to a coordinated protest involving over 8,000 Reddit communities going dark. Some communities have pledged to remain private until Reddit makes changes. The company's stance is perceived as part of a broader effort to increase profitability. The question remains whether Reddit will announce changes or a delay to the proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023.

[5] Reddit’s CEO really wants you to know that he doesn’t care about your feedback (published on 2023-06-16)
Summary: Reddit CEO Steve Huffman is facing backlash over the platform's new API fee pricing. Despite widespread protests and subreddits going offline, Huffman is standing firm, claiming the API was never meant for third-party apps. Developers like Christian Selig, creator of Apollo for Reddit, are facing exorbitant costs under the new terms, leading to widespread discontent. Huffman's refusal to budge has sparked speculation about Reddit's motives and user migration to the official app. The situation has escalated to the point where some subreddits are planning to remain private indefinitely. Given the intense backlash, it's likely that Reddit will announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023.

[6] Reddit CEO Steve Huffman isn’t backing down: our full interview (published on 2023-06-16)
Summary: Reddit CEO Steve Huffman has faced backlash over API pricing changes that will impact third-party Reddit apps. Despite protests and community blackouts, Huffman has remained firm on the changes, emphasizing the need to cover costs. The company has exempted critical apps and made deals with others, but some developers are still facing substantial costs. Huffman's stance has led to widespread discontent, with users expressing frustration and threatening to leave the platform. The company's resolute approach suggests that Reddit may not announce changes or a delay to the proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023.

[7] Reddit CEO says app founders who are shutting down in protest over API charges made millions: 'These aren't like side projects or charities' (published on 2023-06-16)
Summary: Reddit CEO Steve Huffman told The Verge that popular third-party app developers have made millions and emphasized the upcoming API changes. The clock is ticking toward July 1, the date that Reddit plans on implementing a change to the pricing policy of its application programming interface. Huffman has doubled down on the policy change, which could cost popular third-party apps millions. These third-party apps give users access to the platform's content and communities and are maintained by independent developers. This has led to widespread discontent and protests from Reddit users and developers.

[8] As the Reddit war rages on, community trust is the casualty (published on 2023-06-15)
Summary: Over 8,400 subreddits protested new API pricing from June 12-14, which could shut down many third-party Reddit apps. Despite the uproar, Reddit plans to implement the pricing on July 1. The company's move has strained its relationship with volunteer moderators and the community. Over 300 subreddits, including popular ones like r/aww and r/music, remain inaccessible. The ongoing protests suggest that Reddit may face continued resistance. The company's CEO remains firm on the changes, but the discontent within the community may force Reddit to reconsider or delay the implementation of the new API fee pricing.

[9] Reddit Blackout Rolls On For More Than 5,000 Subreddits Past Planned End Date—Some Of Which Plan To Stay Dark Indefinitely (published on 2023-06-15)
Summary: More than 5,000 subreddits remain dark in protest of Reddit's new API pricing policies, despite concerns about the protest's effectiveness. The blackout, initially set to end Wednesday, has continued indefinitely. The changes will charge third-party app developers $0.24 for every 1,000 API calls, leading to potential shutdowns for apps like Apollo and Reddit is Fun. Reddit CEO Steve Huffman has defended the changes, citing the need for the company to be self-sustaining. The protest has sparked widespread discontent among users, but Reddit has not indicated any plans to alter the new API fee pricing.

[10] Reddit CEO Steve Huffman: Reddit ‘was never designed to support third-party apps’ (published on 2023-06-15)
Summary: Reddit is facing backlash over its new API pricing, with thousands of communities protesting by going dark. CEO Steve Huffman is standing firm, stating that the changes are necessary for the company's profitability. However, developers and users are outraged, with Apollo for Reddit's Christian Selig facing a potential $20 million annual cost. Despite the protests, Huffman has not indicated any intention to reverse the decision. The situation has led to speculation about Reddit's motives and the impact on third-party apps. Given the widespread discontent, it remains to be seen whether Reddit will announce changes or a delay to the proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023.
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4. Forecasts (Models, Prompts, Reasonings, Predictions)

Model Full Prompt Prompt Template Reasoning Prediction Brier Score
gpt-4-1106-preview ... ... ... 0.7 0.48999999999999994
gpt-4-1106-preview ... ... ... 0.1 0.010000000000000002
gpt-4-1106-preview ... ... ... 0.6 0.36
gpt-4-1106-preview ... ... ... 0.15 0.0225