network unknown {
}
variable AidNavigationFailure {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable AirTemperature {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { <0, >0 };
}
variable C_BesettingInIce {
  type discrete [ 3 ] { Significant, Severe, Catastrophic };
}
variable C_Collision {
  type discrete [ 3 ] { Significant, Severe, Catastrophic };
}
variable C_Grounding {
  type discrete [ 3 ] { Significant, Severe, Catastrophic };
}
variable C_ShipIceCollision {
  type discrete [ 3 ] { Significant, Severe, Catastrophic };
}
variable ChannelDepth {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { Inadequate, Adequate };
}
variable ChartUpdating {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable CommunicationEquipmentFailure {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable DriftIce {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable EnvironmentalObstacles {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable Fatigue {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable Fog {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable GrossTonnage {
  type discrete [ 4 ] { _0_500], _500_3000], _3000_10000], > 10000 };
}
variable IceConcentration {
  type discrete [ 3 ] { <3/10, 4/10~6/10, >7/10 };
}
variable IceCondition {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { Poor, Good };
}
variable IceStrength {
  type discrete [ 3 ] { Low, Medium, High };
}
variable IceThickness {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { < 0.5m, > 0.5 m };
}
variable IceType {
  type discrete [ 3 ] { Thin Ice, Medium Ice, Old Ice };
}
variable InadequateKnowledge {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable JudgmentFailure {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable LackCommunication {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable LackSafetyMeasures {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable LackSituationalAwareness {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable MechanicalEquipmentFailure {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable NavigatorFailure {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable Negligence {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable P_BesettingInIce {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable P_Collision {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable P_Grounding {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable P_ShipIceCollision {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable PowerFailure {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable PropellerFailure {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable RadarFailure {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable Rain {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable SeaCurrent {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable SeaTemperature {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { <0, >0 };
}
variable ShipType {
  type discrete [ 5 ] { Oil Tanker, General Cargo Ship, Passenger Ship, Icebreaker, Others };
}
variable SteeringFailure {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable StrongWind {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable UnsafeAct {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable UnsafeCondition {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable UnsafeSpeed {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { No, Yes };
}
variable Visibility {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { Poor, Good };
}
variable WaterwayCondition {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { Poor, Good };
}
variable WeatherCondition {
  type discrete [ 2 ] { Poor, Good };
}
probability ( AidNavigationFailure | NavigatorFailure, RadarFailure ) {
  (No, No) 1.0, 0.0;
  (Yes, No) 0.1, 0.9;
  (No, Yes) 0.1, 0.9;
  (Yes, Yes) 0.0, 1.0;
}
probability ( AirTemperature ) {
  table 0.29, 0.71;
}
probability ( C_BesettingInIce | GrossTonnage, ShipType ) {
  (_0_500], Oil Tanker) 0.835, 0.150, 0.015;
  (_500_3000], Oil Tanker) 0.857, 0.130, 0.013;
  (_3000_10000], Oil Tanker) 0.889, 0.100, 0.011;
  (> 10000, Oil Tanker) 0.91, 0.08, 0.01;
  (_0_500], General Cargo Ship) 0.89, 0.10, 0.01;
  (_500_3000], General Cargo Ship) 0.92, 0.07, 0.01;
  (_3000_10000], General Cargo Ship) 0.95, 0.04, 0.01;
  (> 10000, General Cargo Ship) 0.98, 0.01, 0.01;
  (_0_500], Passenger Ship) 0.97, 0.02, 0.01;
  (_500_3000], Passenger Ship) 0.975, 0.015, 0.010;
  (_3000_10000], Passenger Ship) 0.977, 0.013, 0.010;
  (> 10000, Passenger Ship) 0.98, 0.01, 0.01;
  (_0_500], Icebreaker) 0.98, 0.02, 0.00;
  (_500_3000], Icebreaker) 0.985, 0.015, 0.000;
  (_3000_10000], Icebreaker) 0.99, 0.01, 0.00;
  (> 10000, Icebreaker) 0.995, 0.005, 0.000;
  (_0_500], Others) 0.89, 0.10, 0.01;
  (_500_3000], Others) 0.92, 0.07, 0.01;
  (_3000_10000], Others) 0.95, 0.04, 0.01;
  (> 10000, Others) 0.98, 0.01, 0.01;
}
probability ( C_Collision | GrossTonnage, ShipType ) {
  (_0_500], Oil Tanker) 0.835, 0.150, 0.015;
  (_500_3000], Oil Tanker) 0.857, 0.130, 0.013;
  (_3000_10000], Oil Tanker) 0.889, 0.100, 0.011;
  (> 10000, Oil Tanker) 0.982, 0.008, 0.010;
  (_0_500], General Cargo Ship) 0.82, 0.15, 0.03;
  (_500_3000], General Cargo Ship) 0.845, 0.130, 0.025;
  (_3000_10000], General Cargo Ship) 0.87, 0.11, 0.02;
  (> 10000, General Cargo Ship) 0.905, 0.080, 0.015;
  (_0_500], Passenger Ship) 0.966, 0.020, 0.014;
  (_500_3000], Passenger Ship) 0.973, 0.015, 0.012;
  (_3000_10000], Passenger Ship) 0.977, 0.013, 0.010;
  (> 10000, Passenger Ship) 0.982, 0.010, 0.008;
  (_0_500], Icebreaker) 0.79, 0.20, 0.01;
  (_500_3000], Icebreaker) 0.842, 0.150, 0.008;
  (_3000_10000], Icebreaker) 0.894, 0.100, 0.006;
  (> 10000, Icebreaker) 0.946, 0.050, 0.004;
  (_0_500], Others) 0.79, 0.20, 0.01;
  (_500_3000], Others) 0.842, 0.150, 0.008;
  (_3000_10000], Others) 0.894, 0.100, 0.006;
  (> 10000, Others) 0.946, 0.050, 0.004;
}
probability ( C_Grounding | GrossTonnage, ShipType ) {
  (_0_500], Oil Tanker) 0.835, 0.150, 0.015;
  (_500_3000], Oil Tanker) 0.857, 0.130, 0.013;
  (_3000_10000], Oil Tanker) 0.889, 0.100, 0.011;
  (> 10000, Oil Tanker) 0.91, 0.08, 0.01;
  (_0_500], General Cargo Ship) 0.3053435, 0.4580153, 0.2366412;
  (_500_3000], General Cargo Ship) 0.4174120, 0.3577818, 0.2248062;
  (_3000_10000], General Cargo Ship) 0.2624672, 0.5249344, 0.2125984;
  (> 10000, General Cargo Ship) 0.25, 0.50, 0.25;
  (_0_500], Passenger Ship) 0.667, 0.333, 0.000;
  (_500_3000], Passenger Ship) 0.4285714, 0.5714286, 0.0000000;
  (_3000_10000], Passenger Ship) 0.5, 0.5, 0.0;
  (> 10000, Passenger Ship) 0.667, 0.333, 0.000;
  (_0_500], Icebreaker) 0.8, 0.2, 0.0;
  (_500_3000], Icebreaker) 0.85, 0.15, 0.00;
  (_3000_10000], Icebreaker) 0.9, 0.1, 0.0;
  (> 10000, Icebreaker) 0.95, 0.05, 0.00;
  (_0_500], Others) 0.64, 0.35, 0.01;
  (_500_3000], Others) 0.7062857, 0.2857143, 0.0080000;
  (_3000_10000], Others) 0.744, 0.250, 0.006;
  (> 10000, Others) 0.796, 0.200, 0.004;
}
probability ( C_ShipIceCollision | GrossTonnage, ShipType ) {
  (_0_500], Oil Tanker) 0.835, 0.150, 0.015;
  (_500_3000], Oil Tanker) 0.857, 0.130, 0.013;
  (_3000_10000], Oil Tanker) 0.889, 0.100, 0.011;
  (> 10000, Oil Tanker) 0.91, 0.08, 0.01;
  (_0_500], General Cargo Ship) 0.82, 0.15, 0.03;
  (_500_3000], General Cargo Ship) 0.845, 0.130, 0.025;
  (_3000_10000], General Cargo Ship) 0.87, 0.11, 0.02;
  (> 10000, General Cargo Ship) 0.905, 0.080, 0.015;
  (_0_500], Passenger Ship) 0.966, 0.020, 0.014;
  (_500_3000], Passenger Ship) 0.973, 0.015, 0.012;
  (_3000_10000], Passenger Ship) 0.977, 0.013, 0.010;
  (> 10000, Passenger Ship) 0.982, 0.010, 0.008;
  (_0_500], Icebreaker) 0.98, 0.02, 0.00;
  (_500_3000], Icebreaker) 0.985, 0.015, 0.000;
  (_3000_10000], Icebreaker) 0.99, 0.01, 0.00;
  (> 10000, Icebreaker) 0.995, 0.005, 0.000;
  (_0_500], Others) 0.886, 0.100, 0.014;
  (_500_3000], Others) 0.917, 0.070, 0.013;
  (_3000_10000], Others) 0.948, 0.040, 0.012;
  (> 10000, Others) 0.979, 0.010, 0.011;
}
probability ( ChannelDepth ) {
  table 0.02837, 0.97163;
}
probability ( ChartUpdating ) {
  table 0.82, 0.18;
}
probability ( CommunicationEquipmentFailure ) {
  table 0.99934, 0.00066;
}
probability ( DriftIce | SeaCurrent, StrongWind ) {
  (No, No) 0.99738, 0.00262;
  (Yes, No) 0.8, 0.2;
  (No, Yes) 0.9, 0.1;
  (Yes, Yes) 0.6, 0.4;
}
probability ( EnvironmentalObstacles ) {
  table 0.96, 0.04;
}
probability ( Fatigue ) {
  table 0.96, 0.04;
}
probability ( Fog ) {
  table 0.96, 0.04;
}
probability ( GrossTonnage ) {
  table 0.17, 0.41, 0.23, 0.19;
}
probability ( IceConcentration | SeaTemperature ) {
  (<0) 0.87, 0.09, 0.04;
  (>0) 1.0, 0.0, 0.0;
}
probability ( IceCondition | DriftIce, IceConcentration, IceStrength ) {
  (No, <3/10, Low) 0.05, 0.95;
  (Yes, <3/10, Low) 0.15, 0.85;
  (No, 4/10~6/10, Low) 0.3, 0.7;
  (Yes, 4/10~6/10, Low) 0.4, 0.6;
  (No, >7/10, Low) 0.7, 0.3;
  (Yes, >7/10, Low) 0.85, 0.15;
  (No, <3/10, Medium) 0.1, 0.9;
  (Yes, <3/10, Medium) 0.25, 0.75;
  (No, 4/10~6/10, Medium) 0.5, 0.5;
  (Yes, 4/10~6/10, Medium) 0.6, 0.4;
  (No, >7/10, Medium) 0.8, 0.2;
  (Yes, >7/10, Medium) 0.9, 0.1;
  (No, <3/10, High) 0.3, 0.7;
  (Yes, <3/10, High) 0.4, 0.6;
  (No, 4/10~6/10, High) 0.7, 0.3;
  (Yes, 4/10~6/10, High) 0.75, 0.25;
  (No, >7/10, High) 0.95, 0.05;
  (Yes, >7/10, High) 1.0, 0.0;
}
probability ( IceStrength | IceThickness, IceType ) {
  (< 0.5m, Thin Ice) 0.9, 0.1, 0.0;
  (> 0.5 m, Thin Ice) 0.6, 0.3, 0.1;
  (< 0.5m, Medium Ice) 0.6, 0.3, 0.1;
  (> 0.5 m, Medium Ice) 0.1, 0.3, 0.6;
  (< 0.5m, Old Ice) 0.1, 0.3, 0.6;
  (> 0.5 m, Old Ice) 0.0, 0.1, 0.9;
}
probability ( IceThickness | SeaTemperature ) {
  (<0) 0.74, 0.26;
  (>0) 0.95, 0.05;
}
probability ( IceType ) {
  table 0.1, 0.8, 0.1;
}
probability ( InadequateKnowledge ) {
  table 0.86, 0.14;
}
probability ( JudgmentFailure | InadequateKnowledge, LackCommunication, LackSituationalAwareness ) {
  (No, No, No) 0.875, 0.125;
  (Yes, No, No) 0.6, 0.4;
  (No, Yes, No) 0.8, 0.2;
  (Yes, Yes, No) 0.1, 0.9;
  (No, No, Yes) 0.75, 0.25;
  (Yes, No, Yes) 0.2, 0.8;
  (No, Yes, Yes) 0.67, 0.33;
  (Yes, Yes, Yes) 0.05, 0.95;
}
probability ( LackCommunication | CommunicationEquipmentFailure ) {
  (No) 0.82, 0.18;
  (Yes) 0.1, 0.9;
}
probability ( LackSafetyMeasures ) {
  table 0.75, 0.25;
}
probability ( LackSituationalAwareness | Fatigue ) {
  (No) 0.7, 0.3;
  (Yes) 0.1, 0.9;
}
probability ( MechanicalEquipmentFailure | AidNavigationFailure, CommunicationEquipmentFailure, PowerFailure ) {
  (No, No, No) 1.0, 0.0;
  (Yes, No, No) 0.1, 0.9;
  (No, Yes, No) 0.1, 0.9;
  (Yes, Yes, No) 0.05, 0.95;
  (No, No, Yes) 0.1, 0.9;
  (Yes, No, Yes) 0.05, 0.95;
  (No, Yes, Yes) 0.05, 0.95;
  (Yes, Yes, Yes) 0.0, 1.0;
}
probability ( NavigatorFailure ) {
  table 0.99995604, 0.00004396;
}
probability ( Negligence ) {
  table 0.96, 0.04;
}
probability ( P_BesettingInIce | IceCondition, UnsafeAct, UnsafeCondition, WeatherCondition ) {
  (Poor, No, No, Poor) 0.95, 0.05;
  (Good, No, No, Poor) 0.999, 0.001;
  (Poor, Yes, No, Poor) 0.9, 0.1;
  (Good, Yes, No, Poor) 0.99, 0.01;
  (Poor, No, Yes, Poor) 0.85, 0.15;
  (Good, No, Yes, Poor) 0.96, 0.04;
  (Poor, Yes, Yes, Poor) 0.8, 0.2;
  (Good, Yes, Yes, Poor) 0.95, 0.05;
  (Poor, No, No, Good) 0.97, 0.03;
  (Good, No, No, Good) 1.0, 0.0;
  (Poor, Yes, No, Good) 0.95, 0.05;
  (Good, Yes, No, Good) 0.995, 0.005;
  (Poor, No, Yes, Good) 0.9, 0.1;
  (Good, No, Yes, Good) 0.98, 0.02;
  (Poor, Yes, Yes, Good) 0.82, 0.18;
  (Good, Yes, Yes, Good) 0.97, 0.03;
}
probability ( P_Collision | IceCondition, UnsafeAct, UnsafeCondition, WeatherCondition ) {
  (Poor, No, No, Poor) 0.975, 0.025;
  (Good, No, No, Poor) 0.99, 0.01;
  (Poor, Yes, No, Poor) 0.963, 0.037;
  (Good, Yes, No, Poor) 0.973, 0.027;
  (Poor, No, Yes, Poor) 0.965, 0.035;
  (Good, No, Yes, Poor) 0.975, 0.025;
  (Poor, Yes, Yes, Poor) 0.95027624, 0.04972376;
  (Good, Yes, Yes, Poor) 0.96, 0.04;
  (Poor, No, No, Good) 0.986, 0.014;
  (Good, No, No, Good) 1.0, 0.0;
  (Poor, Yes, No, Good) 0.973, 0.027;
  (Good, Yes, No, Good) 0.983, 0.017;
  (Poor, No, Yes, Good) 0.975, 0.025;
  (Good, No, Yes, Good) 0.985, 0.015;
  (Poor, Yes, Yes, Good) 0.96, 0.04;
  (Good, Yes, Yes, Good) 0.97, 0.03;
}
probability ( P_Grounding | UnsafeAct, UnsafeCondition, WaterwayCondition, WeatherCondition ) {
  (No, No, Poor, Poor) 0.85, 0.15;
  (Yes, No, Poor, Poor) 0.81, 0.19;
  (No, Yes, Poor, Poor) 0.82, 0.18;
  (Yes, Yes, Poor, Poor) 0.7734807, 0.2265193;
  (No, No, Good, Poor) 0.88, 0.12;
  (Yes, No, Good, Poor) 0.845, 0.155;
  (No, Yes, Good, Poor) 0.855, 0.145;
  (Yes, Yes, Good, Poor) 0.84, 0.16;
  (No, No, Poor, Good) 0.91, 0.09;
  (Yes, No, Poor, Good) 0.85, 0.15;
  (No, Yes, Poor, Good) 0.86, 0.14;
  (Yes, Yes, Poor, Good) 0.83, 0.17;
  (No, No, Good, Good) 1.0, 0.0;
  (Yes, No, Good, Good) 0.885, 0.115;
  (No, Yes, Good, Good) 0.895, 0.105;
  (Yes, Yes, Good, Good) 0.9, 0.1;
}
probability ( P_ShipIceCollision | IceCondition, UnsafeAct, UnsafeCondition, WeatherCondition ) {
  (Poor, No, No, Poor) 0.95, 0.05;
  (Good, No, No, Poor) 0.999, 0.001;
  (Poor, Yes, No, Poor) 0.94, 0.06;
  (Good, Yes, No, Poor) 0.996, 0.004;
  (Poor, No, Yes, Poor) 0.92, 0.08;
  (Good, No, Yes, Poor) 0.992, 0.008;
  (Poor, Yes, Yes, Poor) 0.9, 0.1;
  (Good, Yes, Yes, Poor) 0.99, 0.01;
  (Poor, No, No, Good) 0.98, 0.02;
  (Good, No, No, Good) 1.0, 0.0;
  (Poor, Yes, No, Good) 0.94, 0.06;
  (Good, Yes, No, Good) 0.998, 0.002;
  (Poor, No, Yes, Good) 0.93, 0.07;
  (Good, No, Yes, Good) 0.995, 0.005;
  (Poor, Yes, Yes, Good) 0.91, 0.09;
  (Good, Yes, Yes, Good) 0.994, 0.006;
}
probability ( PowerFailure | PropellerFailure, SteeringFailure ) {
  (No, No) 1.0, 0.0;
  (Yes, No) 0.1, 0.9;
  (No, Yes) 0.1, 0.9;
  (Yes, Yes) 0.0, 1.0;
}
probability ( PropellerFailure ) {
  table 0.9997128, 0.0002872;
}
probability ( RadarFailure ) {
  table 0.9996632, 0.0003368;
}
probability ( Rain ) {
  table 0.93, 0.07;
}
probability ( SeaCurrent ) {
  table 0.96, 0.04;
}
probability ( SeaTemperature ) {
  table 0.42, 0.58;
}
probability ( ShipType ) {
  table 0.06, 0.28, 0.38, 0.03, 0.25;
}
probability ( SteeringFailure ) {
  table 0.99986, 0.00014;
}
probability ( StrongWind ) {
  table 0.79, 0.21;
}
probability ( UnsafeAct | ChartUpdating, JudgmentFailure, LackSafetyMeasures, Negligence ) {
  (No, No, No, No) 1.0, 0.0;
  (Yes, No, No, No) 0.3, 0.7;
  (No, Yes, No, No) 0.3, 0.7;
  (Yes, Yes, No, No) 0.2, 0.8;
  (No, No, Yes, No) 0.3, 0.7;
  (Yes, No, Yes, No) 0.2, 0.8;
  (No, Yes, Yes, No) 0.2, 0.8;
  (Yes, Yes, Yes, No) 0.1, 0.9;
  (No, No, No, Yes) 0.3, 0.7;
  (Yes, No, No, Yes) 0.2, 0.8;
  (No, Yes, No, Yes) 0.2, 0.8;
  (Yes, Yes, No, Yes) 0.1, 0.9;
  (No, No, Yes, Yes) 0.2, 0.8;
  (Yes, No, Yes, Yes) 0.1, 0.9;
  (No, Yes, Yes, Yes) 0.01, 0.99;
  (Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes) 0.0, 1.0;
}
probability ( UnsafeCondition | MechanicalEquipmentFailure, UnsafeSpeed ) {
  (No, No) 0.9, 0.1;
  (Yes, No) 0.2, 0.8;
  (No, Yes) 0.2, 0.8;
  (Yes, Yes) 0.1, 0.9;
}
probability ( UnsafeSpeed | PowerFailure ) {
  (No) 0.6, 0.4;
  (Yes) 0.1, 0.9;
}
probability ( Visibility | Fog, Rain ) {
  (No, No) 0.08, 0.92;
  (Yes, No) 0.8, 0.2;
  (No, Yes) 0.7, 0.3;
  (Yes, Yes) 0.95, 0.05;
}
probability ( WaterwayCondition | ChannelDepth, EnvironmentalObstacles ) {
  (Inadequate, No) 0.9, 0.1;
  (Adequate, No) 0.0, 1.0;
  (Inadequate, Yes) 1.0, 0.0;
  (Adequate, Yes) 0.7, 0.3;
}
probability ( WeatherCondition | AirTemperature, StrongWind, Visibility ) {
  (<0, No, Poor) 0.75, 0.25;
  (>0, No, Poor) 0.6, 0.4;
  (<0, Yes, Poor) 0.8, 0.2;
  (>0, Yes, Poor) 0.7, 0.3;
  (<0, No, Good) 0.2, 0.8;
  (>0, No, Good) 0.05, 0.95;
  (<0, Yes, Good) 0.15, 0.85;
  (>0, Yes, Good) 0.1, 0.9;
}
