	dollar seen falling unless japan spurs economy underlying dollar sentiment is bearish and operators may push the currency to a new low unless japan takes steps to stimulate its economy as pledged in the paris accord foreign exchange analysts polled by reuters said here the dollar is expected to try its psychological barrier of yen and to fall even below that level a senior dealer at one leading bank said the dollar has eased this week but remains stable at around yen six major industrial countries agreed at a meeting in paris in february to foster currency stability some dealers said the dollar may decline in the long term but a drastic fall is unlikely because of u s fears of renewed inflation and fears of reduced japanese purchases of u s treasury securities needed to finance the u s deficit dealers generally doubted whether any economic package japan could adopt soon would be effective enough to reduce its trade surplus significantly and said such measures would probably invite further u s steps to weaken the dollar under the paris accord tokyo promised a package of measures after the fiscal budget was passed to boost domestic demand increase imports and cut its trade surplus but debate on the budget has been delayed by an opposition boycott of parliamentary business over the proposed imposition of a five pct sales tax and the government has only a slim chance of producing a meaningful economic package in the near future the dealers said if no such steps are taken protectionist sentiment in the u s congress will grow putting greater downward pressure on the dollar they said the factors affecting the u s currency have not changed since before the paris accord they added underlying sentiment for the dollar remains bearish due to a still sluggish u s economic outlook the international debt crisis triggered by brazil s unilateral suspension of interest payments on its foreign debts and the reduced clout of the reagan administration as a result of the iran contra arms scandal said a senior dealer at a leading trust bank there is a possibility that the dollar may decline to around yen by the end of this year said chemical bank tokyo branch vice president yukuo takahashi but operators find it hard to push the dollar either way for fear of possible concerted central bank intervention dealers said there were widespread rumours that the u s federal reserve telephoned some banks in new york to ask for quotes last wednesday and even intervened to sell the dollar when it rose to marks the bank of england also apparently sold sterling in london when it neared dlrs on wednesday they said but other dealers said they doubted the efficacy of central bank intervention saying it may stimulate the dollar s decline because many dealers are likely to await such dollar buying intervention as a chance to sell dollars however first national bank of chicago tokyo branch assistant manager hiroshi mochizuki said the dollar will not show drastic movement at least to the end of march other dealers said the u s seems unwilling to see any strong dollar swing until japanese companies close their books for the fiscal year ending on march because a weak dollar would give japanese institutional investors paper losses on their foreign holdings which could make them lose interest in purchases of u s treasury securities u s monetary officials may refrain from making any comments this month to avoid influencing rates they said reuter 
