	u s oil prices strong ahead of opec meeting u s  oil prices are at their highest level in more than a year ahead of next week s opec meeting even though most industry analysts do not expect any policy changes from the session they said prices which have steadily climbed since the organization s accord in december have risen on technical factors within the market and concerns about supplies because of the iran iraq war which could disrupt deliveries from the gulf the u s benchmark  west texas intermediate is trading around dlrs in the july contract on new york mercantile exchange s energy futures and in the spot market that is its highest level since january opec conference president rilwanu lukman who is nigeria s oil minister said friday he expects the meeting in vienna to be brief and calm and that opec s current price and production agreement may only need a slight review although most industry experts expect just a reaffirmation of the december agreement oil prices continue to climb due to a desire to hedge positions in case of any surprises analysts expect the higher prices to continue until soon after the opec meeting at that point barring any increased tension in the gulf or changes in opec s policies prices should begin easing opec will probably not do anything it hasn t already agreed to in december because oil prices are firm said john hill a vice president at merrill lynch futures opec agreed in december to maintain official oil prices at dlrs a barrel and raise the group s production ceiling to mln barrels per day in the third quarter and to mln barrels in the fourth quarter this agreement helped send prices sharply higher rising from dlrs a barrel in early december several opec members who are price hawks including iran algeria and libya will seek a higher official price and a reduction in output and if u s west texas intermediate  continues to trade above dlrs a barrel there is a greater chance that opec will raise its official dlrs price said nauman barakat analyst at smith barney harris upham and co but most analysts expect the more moderate producers such as saudi arabia to block any changes in policy the meeting will be a non event with no change in the official prices because opec and in particular the saudis are committed to stabilizing the market said rosario ilacqua analyst with l f rothschild however some analysts said opec may need to hold a meeting in september to re evaluate market conditions overproduction by opec will become a real problem in the fourth quarter when the quota is raised to mln barrels a day and iraq s pipeline through turkey brings another barrels to the market each day said john lichtblau president of petroleum industry ressearch foundation most expect saudi arabia to oppose a price increase at this meeting but many look for an increase by year end to dlrs to offset the decline in the dollar oil prices are denominated throughout the world in dollars so as the currency declines producers receive less money for their oil the only real production restraint in opec is saudi arabia said sanford margoshes analyst at shearson lehman brothers in the second half of the year we expect the saudis not to produce at their mln barrel a day quota and therefore act as a vehicle to stablize the market and pave the way for a two dlrs a barrel price increase at the december meeting he said one uncertain factor is the course of the iran iraq war the wild card is the increased tensions in the persian gulf said frank knuettel analyst with prudential bache securites oil tankers taking oil from iraq and kuwait have been regular targets for iranian planes the reagan administration is planning to put kuwait tankers under the protection of the u s flag with naval escorts extra oil inventories are needed during a time of crisis like this and just general nervousness over an incident that could disrupt oil supplies drives prices up knuettel said reuter 
