	canada  rise seen as start of recovery canada s  picture has brightened considerably underscoring economists predictions the sector would post a long awaited recovery this year the federal government reported today that the monthly surplus soared to billion canadian dlrs in february double january s mln dlrs surplus and sharply higher than february s mln dlr tally hopefully it s the beginning of a trend said richardson greenshields of canada ltd economist susan clark in toronto economists generally don t expect such large gains over the next months but are looking for an upward trend throughout the year we thought the  balance would improve over the year and it certainly looks as if this morning s figure is indicative of that commented economist james donegan at the toronto securities firm of midland doherty ltd statistics canada reported the surplus was driven by a pct gain in automobile product exports to a record billion dls in the month recovery in the automotive sector helped push the value of exports up by pct in february the agency said in its monthly report total exports expanded to billion dlrs from billion dlrs in february while imports slipped to billion dlrs from billion dlrs economists have predicted the  surplus would end up three to five billion dlrs higher than last year s dismal billion dlr total in the surplus was billion dlrs money market analysts said the positive  news touched off a modest rally in the canadian dollar which rose to u s cts on north american markets early this morning after closing at cts wednesday the currency was hovering around cts in early afternoon trading economists have been banking on an improved  performance this year to stimulate an otherwise sluggish canadian economy money market analysts said the positive  news touched off a modest rally in the canadian dollar which rose to u s cts on north american markets early this morning after closing at cts wednesday the currency was hovering around cts in early afternoon trading economists have been banking on an improved  performance this year to stimulate an otherwise sluggish canadian economy they say the country s consumers who have been spending at a torrid pace in recent years will sharply curtail outlays this year and this should help curtail the flow of imports into the country meanwhile demand for canadian exports in the united states by far the country s largest market is expected to be strong as a result of a projected rise in american consumer spending and the relatively low value of the canadian currency we maintain what s going to drive canada s export performance is income growth in the u s said midland s donegan but at the bank of nova scotia deputy chief economist warren jestin was less optimistic about the u s outlook and said it could be a mistake to read too much into february s  upturn jestin said given the fact the u s economy is showing signs of weakening particularly car sales it would indicate that part of the strength in canada s  figures is probably transitory reuter 
