	cathay pacific profit seen above target buoyed by low fuel prices and favourable currency factors cathay pacific airways ltd s caph hk profits are expected to surpass the airline s forecast of one billion h k dlrs stock analysts said analysts said they expect the airline to show net ings of between billion and billion dlrs when it reports results tomorrow for its first year as a public company cathay pct owned by swire pacific ltd swpc hk made its ings forecast in the prospectus for its flotation in may last year cathay is expected to pay a cent final dividend making a total of cents for the year as forecast in the prospectus analysts polled by reuters said they said the airline s performance improved in the second half of the year after it reported interim profits of mln dlrs the weakness of the local currency pegged at to one u s dollar and low fuel prices moved further in the company s favour from the assumptions made in the prospectus at the time of the flotation james capel far east ltd said james capel estimates average fuel prices for the airline industry in at u s cents per gallon pct below the level it said a one pct movement in fuel prices would affect cathay s net profits by mln dlrs and forecast profits of billion dlrs analysts said the company s estimates of fuel price and currency movements set out in its prospectus were conservative this is reflected in their interim results which showed that profit margin has increased said frederick tsang of mansion house securities f e ltd cathay s six month turnover rose pct from year earlier levels but profits rose pct the rise in oil prices in late had little impact on the company s fuel oil bill last year as aviation fuel prices usually lag behind crude price movements by several months analysts said by last september the yen had risen some pct against the hong kong dollar from the end of the mark pct and sterling pct overall the weakness of the hong kong dollar against cathay s major trading currencies helped push passenger yields in the first half up pct said james capel this should continue through the second half to enable passenger yields to end the year up pct a strong performance from the billion dlrs in cash under management also improved profits james capel said a general improvement in air traffic last year contributed to cathay s revenue increase but the company s load factor declined because of increased competition and an expansion of its fleet and services james capel estimated cathay s passenger kilometres flown last year rose six pct from and freight kilometres flown climbed pct though the airline s load factor probably fell to pct from pct cathay added new planes and was forced to fly some routes last year because of the threat of competition from dragon air said tsang this affected its load factor fear of possible competition from fledgling carrier hong kong dragon airways ltd may have contributed to cathay s decision to resume service to new zealand last year analysts said reuter 
