Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the Ukrainian army manage to retake the city of Polohy, specifically the areas around the Polohy Train Station (47.47675302706511, 36.2585252900517) and the House of Culture "Miner" (47.49121534220172, 36.191507899530706), by the 1st of October 2023, as indicated by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map? The resolution criteria will be based on ISW's assessment of the locations' control status, with the question resolving to "Yes" if either location is categorized as "Ukrainian Control," "Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives," or any other category indicating Ukrainian control, and resolving to "No" if the locations are categorized as "Assessed Russian Control," "Assessed Russian Advance," "Claimed Russian Control," or any other category indicating Russian control.

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Russian defensive fortifications**: The Russian side has been building defensive fortifications in territories it controls, which could make it more difficult for the Ukrainian army to break through and retake Polohy. Strength: 7/10
2. **Ukrainian military buildup is not a guarantee of success**: While the Ukrainian army has formed new battalions with western tanks and AFVs, this does not necessarily mean they will be successful in their counteroffensive. Strength: 6/10
3. **Polohy's proximity to the frontline**: Being 20 km from the frontline could make it challenging for the Ukrainian army to launch a successful attack, as they may be vulnerable to Russian counterattacks. Strength: 5/10
4. **Russian military presence in the area**: The Russian military has a significant presence in the region, which could make it difficult for the Ukrainian army to retake Polohy without a significant military advantage. Strength: 8/10

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Ukrainian military buildup and preparations**: The Ukrainian army has been preparing for a counteroffensive, which suggests they are confident in their ability to retake Polohy. Strength: 8/10
2. **Russian vulnerabilities**: The Russian military has faced challenges in recent months, including supply chain issues and manpower shortages, which could make it more difficult for them to defend Polohy. Strength: 7/10
3. **Ukrainian military advancements**: The Ukrainian army has made significant gains in recent months, which suggests they have the capability to retake Polohy. Strength: 9/10
4. **ISW's assessment of Ukrainian control**: ISW has reported Ukrainian control of several locations in the region, which suggests that the Ukrainian army may have a foothold in the area. Strength: 6/10

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for and against the Ukrainian army retaking Polohy, I believe the most significant factors are the Ukrainian military buildup and preparations, Russian vulnerabilities, and Ukrainian military advancements. While the Russian defensive fortifications and military presence in the area are significant concerns, I believe the Ukrainian army has a strong chance of success.

Initial probability: 65

Evaluation of initial probability:

Upon further consideration, I realize that my initial probability may be overly optimistic. The Russian military presence in the area and their defensive fortifications are significant concerns that could hinder the Ukrainian army's progress. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of the Ukrainian army retaking Polohy) is relatively low, given the complexities of modern warfare and the difficulty of predicting military outcomes.

Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the European Union Parliament officially endorse a negotiating mandate for the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Act before the deadline of June 16, 2023, given that the Parliament is scheduled to be in session from June 12-15, with debate on the AI Act scheduled for June 13th, and the current proposal includes a risk classification system for AI systems with four levels of risk (unacceptable, high-risk, limited risk, and minimal risk)?

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. The Parliament's debate on the AI Act is scheduled for June 13th, but it's uncertain if they will have enough time to finalize the negotiating mandate before the deadline of June 16th (strength: 3). 
2. The Parliament may face disagreements or opposition to the proposed AI Act, which could delay or prevent the endorsement of the negotiating mandate (strength: 4).
3. The Parliament's committees have already adopted a negotiating mandate, but the full Parliament may not agree with it, or there may be last-minute changes that cause delays (strength: 2).

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. The Parliament has already adopted a negotiating mandate from two committees, which suggests a level of agreement on the proposal (strength: 4).
2. The scheduled debate on June 13th indicates that the Parliament is actively considering the AI Act, which increases the likelihood of a timely endorsement (strength: 5).
3. The EU Parliament often follows a relatively predictable process for legislative decisions, and the endorsement of a negotiating mandate is a standard step before negotiations begin (strength: 4).

Aggregated considerations:
The Parliament's scheduled debate and the adoption of a negotiating mandate from two committees suggest a strong likelihood of endorsement. However, the uncertainty surrounding the time needed for debate and potential disagreements within the Parliament could lead to delays. The base rate of the EU Parliament endorsing negotiating mandates for proposed laws is not explicitly provided, but it is generally considered a common step in the legislative process.

Initial probability: 80

Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 80 seems relatively confident, but it may be overly optimistic given the uncertainty surrounding the time needed for debate and potential disagreements within the Parliament. A more conservative approach might be warranted, considering the potential for last-minute changes or delays.

Final prediction: *0.7*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will at least two of the following internationally recognized media outlets (BBC News, The Economist, The New York Times, and The Wall Street Journal) report, prior to 11:59pm UTC on June 20, 2023, that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun, based on sourced reporting (including government sources quoted on condition of anonymity), before June 21, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-5, where 1 is the weakest and 5 is the strongest):
- The Ukrainian government and military might not publicly confirm the start of the counteroffensive, even if it has begun, to maintain strategic surprise and avoid alerting Russian forces. (Strength: 4)
- The counteroffensive might not be as imminent as expected, and preparations could be ongoing without an immediate start date. (Strength: 3)
- The media outlets might not have access to reliable sources or might be cautious in reporting on the start of the counteroffensive due to the sensitive nature of the information. (Strength: 2)
- The question's resolution criteria might be too narrow, focusing on specific media outlets and a specific date, which could make it difficult to meet the threshold. (Strength: 1)
- The Ukrainian military might be taking a more gradual or stealthy approach to the counteroffensive, making it harder to pinpoint an exact start date. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-5, where 1 is the weakest and 5 is the strongest):
- Ukrainian officials have hinted at the imminence of the counteroffensive, and President Zelenskyy's statement suggests a sense of urgency and preparation. (Strength: 4)
- The Ukrainian military has been preparing for the counteroffensive, and it's likely that the media outlets will report on the start of the operation once it begins. (Strength: 4)
- The international community is closely watching Ukraine's military efforts, and the media outlets might be more likely to report on a significant development like the start of a counteroffensive. (Strength: 3)
- The question's resolution criteria are specific and clear, making it easier to determine whether the threshold has been met. (Strength: 2)
- The Ukrainian government might intentionally leak information to the media to create a narrative or to put pressure on Russia, which could result in a report from one of the listed outlets. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I think the most significant factors are the Ukrainian government's hints at the imminence of the counteroffensive, the ongoing preparations, and the international attention on the situation. These factors suggest that a report from one of the media outlets is likely, but the narrow resolution criteria and the potential for a stealthy or gradual approach might reduce the likelihood. I'm leaning towards a "yes" answer, but with a moderate level of confidence.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
My initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the considerations above. However, I might be underestimating the Ukrainian government's ability to maintain secrecy and the potential for a gradual or stealthy approach. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive occurring) is not explicitly stated, which might affect the forecast. I should consider this when revising my probability.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Lionel Messi join Futbol Club Barcelona as a club player before June 3, 2025?

Background:
Lionel Messi is a renowned footballer, widely regarded as one of the best of all time. He left Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) in June 2023, after spending two seasons with the club. Messi has a strong association with FC Barcelona, where he spent most of his career and achieved immense success. He is also linked to other clubs, including his boyhood club Newell's Old Boys, Saudi Pro League club Al-Hilal, Premier League club Manchester City, and Major League Soccer club Inter Miami. Messi's next move is highly anticipated, with many speculating about his future.

Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve Yes if Lionel Messi joins Futbol Club Barcelona as a club player before June 3, 2025. It will resolve No for all other clubs. Confirmation of Messi's joining a new club will come from reliable and trustworthy sport news sources, such as Sky Sports, BBC News, and Fabrizio Romano's official Twitter page. If Messi announces retirement or intends to take an indefinite period of rest, the question will resolve No for all clubs. If Messi joins a club in a role that is not a club player (e.g., as a coach), the question will resolve No for that club and all other clubs; a role of player-manager would resolve Yes for that club.

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. Messi has already left Barcelona once and joined PSG, which might indicate that he is open to exploring other opportunities (Strength: 2).
2. Messi has been linked to several clubs, including Al-Hilal, Manchester City, and Inter Miami, which might suggest that he is considering other options (Strength: 3).
3. Messi's current age (38) might be a factor in his decision-making process, as he might prioritize a more relaxed lifestyle or a shorter contract (Strength: 4).
4. Messi's salary expectations might be a significant factor in his decision, and Barcelona might not be able to meet his demands (Strength: 5).
5. Messi's personal and family circumstances might influence his decision, and he might prefer to stay in a different location (Strength: 2).

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. Messi has a strong emotional connection to Barcelona, where he spent most of his career and achieved success (Strength: 5).
2. Barcelona might be willing to meet Messi's salary demands, given his market value and the club's financial resources (Strength: 4).
3. Messi's family has ties to Argentina, and returning to his boyhood club Newell's Old Boys might not be as appealing as returning to Barcelona (Strength: 3).
4. Messi has a strong desire to win more titles and trophies, and Barcelona might offer him the best opportunity to achieve this (Strength: 4).
5. The speculation surrounding Messi's potential return to Barcelona has been ongoing for some time, which might indicate a strong interest from both parties (Strength: 5).

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I will weigh the strengths of each argument. The reasons for a "no" answer have a total strength of 20 (2+3+4+5+2), while the reasons for a "yes" answer have a total strength of 25 (5+4+3+4+5). This suggests that the evidence leans slightly in favor of Messi joining Barcelona.

Initial probability: 55

Evaluation:
My initial probability might be considered slightly too confident, given the uncertainty surrounding Messi's decision. I should consider the base rate of the event, which is relatively low, as Messi has already left Barcelona once and joined PSG. Additionally, the other clubs mentioned have a strong interest in signing him, which might increase the likelihood of a different outcome.

Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Lionel Messi join Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club as a club player before the question close date of June 3, 2025?

Given the information provided, the following are reasons why the answer might be no:

1. Messi's potential return to FC Barcelona: Messi has a strong emotional connection with his former club, and a return to Barcelona could be a more appealing option for him, especially considering the speculation surrounding a potential reunion. (Strength: 6/10)
2. Messi's boyhood club loyalty: Messi has expressed his loyalty to Newell's Old Boys, and joining his boyhood club could be a more sentimental choice for him, potentially making Al-Hilal less likely. (Strength: 5/10)
3. Messi's high salary expectations: Al-Hilal might not be able to match Messi's significant salary demands, which could be a major obstacle for the club. (Strength: 8/10)
4. Messi's desire for a new challenge: Messi has already played in La Liga and the French Ligue 1; joining Al-Hilal could be seen as a less exciting option compared to other leagues like the Premier League or Major League Soccer. (Strength: 4/10)

Given the information provided, the following are reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. Al-Hilal's financial resources: As an exception to the usual salary restrictions, Al-Hilal might be able to offer Messi a significant salary, making it a more viable option. (Strength: 7/10)
2. Messi's desire for a new adventure: Joining Al-Hilal could be an exciting opportunity for Messi to experience a new league and culture, which might appeal to him. (Strength: 6/10)
3. Al-Hilal's ambition: The club has shown ambition in recent years, and signing Messi would be a significant statement of intent, potentially making it a more attractive option for him. (Strength: 5/10)

Aggregate considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against, I believe the likelihood of Messi joining Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club as a club player is relatively low, but not impossible. The high salary expectations and potential desire for a new challenge are significant obstacles, but Al-Hilal's financial resources and ambition could make it a more viable option.

Initial probability: 25

Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 25 seems relatively low, considering the financial resources of Al-Hilal and the potential appeal of a new adventure. However, the high salary expectations and Messi's emotional connections to other clubs make it a challenging decision. Considering the base rate of Messi joining a new club, it's not a common occurrence, and the uncertainty surrounding his next move makes it difficult to predict.

Final prediction: *0.20*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.2
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and expanded question:**

Will Lionel Messi join Manchester City Football Club as a club player by the end of 2025, considering his recent departure from Paris Saint-Germain and ongoing speculation about his next club, with the possibility of a return to Barcelona, a move to Al-Hilal, Inter Miami, or Newell's Old Boys, or another club, as reported by reliable sources such as Sky Sports, BBC News, and Fabrizio Romano's official Twitter page?

**Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong)**

1. Messi's age and potential decline (strength: 4): As a 35-year-old footballer, Messi's performance and playing style might be affected by his age, making it less likely for him to join a new club and perform at his previous level.
2. Personal and family reasons (strength: 3): Messi might have personal or family reasons to stay in one place, such as his family's comfort with their current location or his desire to be closer to his children's schools.
3. Financial considerations (strength: 5): Given his significant salary demands, most clubs might be deterred from signing him, and the exception of Newell's Old Boys might not be feasible due to the significant reduction in salary.
4. Messi's desire for a new challenge (strength: 2): Messi might be looking for a new challenge, but this could also mean a move to a different type of club, such as a team in the United States or the Saudi Pro League, rather than a traditional European club like Manchester City.

**Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong)**

1. Manchester City's resources and ambition (strength: 5): Manchester City is one of the richest clubs in the world, with the resources to attract and retain top talent, making them a strong contender to sign Messi.
2. Pep Guardiola's influence (strength: 4): As the manager of Manchester City, Pep Guardiola has a proven track record of getting the best out of top players, and his influence could be a significant factor in attracting Messi to the club.
3. Messi's desire for success (strength: 5): Messi has consistently shown a desire to win and compete at the highest level, and Manchester City is a team that has the potential to challenge for major trophies.
4. The lack of a clear alternative (strength: 3): While there are several clubs mentioned as potential destinations for Messi, none have been confirmed, and Manchester City might be the most likely option among those mentioned.

**Aggregated considerations**

Considering the reasons above, I would rate the likelihood of Messi joining Manchester City as follows:

* Strengths for a yes: 3.5 (Manchester City's resources and ambition, Pep Guardiola's influence, and Messi's desire for success)
* Weaknesses for a yes: 1.5 (Messi's age and potential decline, personal and family reasons, and financial considerations)
* Weaknesses for a no: 1 (the lack of a clear alternative)

**Initial probability**

Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Messi joining Manchester City as 60.

**Evaluation of initial probability**

The initial probability might be considered slightly too confident, as there are several factors that could affect the outcome, such as Messi's personal preferences, the negotiations between Manchester City and Messi's representatives, and the emergence of other contenders. However, considering the significant resources and ambition of Manchester City, as well as Pep Guardiola's influence, the initial probability seems reasonable.

**Final prediction**

*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**
Will Lionel Messi join Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami as a club player before June 3rd, 2025?

**Background:**
Lionel Messi is one of the best footballers of all time, known for his incredible skills and achievements at FC Barcelona and Argentina. He has recently announced his departure from Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) after two seasons. Given his immense success and high salary expectations, there is significant speculation about his next club. Potential destinations include his former club Barcelona, his boyhood club Newell’s Old Boys, Saudi Pro League club Al-Hilal, Premier League club Manchester City, and Major League Soccer club Inter Miami. However, most clubs are restricted in expressing interest due to his high salary demands, except for Newell’s Old Boys, where he would likely join at a lower salary.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might Be No:**

1. **High Salary Demands**: Messi's salary expectations are likely to be a significant obstacle for most clubs, and Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami may not be willing or able to meet those demands. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Competition from Other Clubs**: Messi is a highly sought-after player, and other clubs, such as Barcelona, Al-Hilal, Manchester City, and Inter Miami, may offer more attractive options or better financial packages. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Personal Preferences**: Messi may have personal reasons for choosing a specific club, such as a desire to return to his boyhood club Newell’s Old Boys or to stay in Europe. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Uncertainty about Messi's Future Plans**: Messi has not publicly announced his next move, and his future plans may change suddenly. (Strength: 4/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might Be Yes:**

1. **Interest from Inter Miami**: Inter Miami has been linked to Messi, and the club's owner, David Beckham, has expressed interest in signing him. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Lower Salary Expectations**: As a Major League Soccer club, Inter Miami may be more willing to offer a lower salary than European clubs, which could make it a more feasible destination for Messi. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Growing Popularity of MLS**: The popularity of Major League Soccer is increasing, and Inter Miami may be an attractive option for a player like Messi who wants to try something new. (Strength: 4/10)
4. **Messi's Desire for a New Challenge**: Messi has spoken about his desire to try new things and take on new challenges, which could make Inter Miami an appealing option. (Strength: 3/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**
Considering the reasons above, the likelihood of Messi joining Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami as a club player before June 3rd, 2025, is relatively low. While there are some potential advantages to joining Inter Miami, the high salary demands and competition from other clubs are significant obstacles. I would rate the likelihood of this event as 20%.

**Initial Probability:** 20

**Evaluation:**
My initial probability seems relatively low, but it's essential to consider the base rate of the event. Given the high level of speculation surrounding Messi's next move, it's not surprising that there are many potential destinations. However, the fact that Inter Miami is a relatively new club with lower salary expectations makes it a less likely destination compared to other clubs. I may have been too cautious in my initial probability.

**Final Prediction:** *0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Lionel Messi join Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys as a club player before the close date of 2025-06-03, considering his departure from Paris Saint-Germain in June 2023 and the speculation surrounding his next club? The question will resolve Yes for Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys if Messi joins the club as a player, No for all other clubs, and No for all clubs if Messi announces retirement or takes an indefinite period of rest or joins the club in a non-player role.

Reasons why the answer might be No (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. Messi's preference for top-tier clubs: Messi has consistently played for top-tier clubs throughout his career, and it's unlikely he would choose to join a club from the Argentine Primera Division, even if it's his boyhood club. (Strength: 4)
2. Financial considerations: While Messi would likely earn a significantly lower salary at Newell's Old Boys compared to his previous clubs, he might still be earning more than he wants to or is comfortable with, especially considering his status as one of the highest-paid athletes in the world. (Strength: 3)
3. Messi's global appeal: As one of the greatest footballers of all time, Messi has a global appeal and might prefer to join a club with a broader international reach and exposure, which Newell's Old Boys might not offer. (Strength: 2)
4. Messi's family and personal considerations: Messi has a family and might prefer to join a club with a more stable and comfortable environment, which might not be the case at Newell's Old Boys. (Strength: 2)
5. Messi's agent's influence: Messi's agent, Carlos Bilardo, might have a significant say in his client's next move, and might prefer to negotiate a deal with a top-tier club. (Strength: 1)

Reasons why the answer might be Yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. Messi's emotional connection to Newell's Old Boys: As Messi's boyhood club, Newell's Old Boys holds a special place in his heart, and he might be drawn to the opportunity to return to his roots. (Strength: 5)
2. Lower salary expectations: Compared to his previous clubs, Newell's Old Boys would likely offer a significantly lower salary, which might be appealing to Messi if he's looking to take a pay cut or wants to focus on his football rather than his finances. (Strength: 4)
3. Messi's desire for a new challenge: After two seasons at PSG, Messi might be looking for a new challenge and a change of scenery, which Newell's Old Boys could offer. (Strength: 3)
4. Messi's loyalty to Argentina: As an Argentine footballer, Messi might want to stay close to his home country and join a club that would allow him to stay involved in Argentine football. (Strength: 2)
5. The lack of other top-tier options: If Messi is not interested in joining other top-tier clubs like Barcelona, Manchester City, or Al-Hilal, Newell's Old Boys might be the most appealing option. (Strength: 2)

Aggregate considerations:

Considering the reasons above, I think the likelihood of Messi joining Newell's Old Boys as a club player is relatively low, but not impossible. The emotional connection to the club, lower salary expectations, and desire for a new challenge are all factors that could draw Messi to Newell's Old Boys. However, the preference for top-tier clubs, financial considerations, and Messi's global appeal might ultimately sway him to choose a different option.

Initial probability: 20

Evaluation:

My initial probability of 20 seems relatively low, considering the emotional connection Messi has with Newell's Old Boys and the lower salary expectations. However, I'm also considering the fact that Messi has consistently played for top-tier clubs throughout his career, and it's unclear whether he would be willing to take a significant pay cut or join a club outside of the top tier.

Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of Messi joining any club as a player), I would say that the probability is relatively low, but not impossible. The base rate of a player of Messi's caliber joining a club like Newell's Old Boys is likely very low, but the emotional connection and lower salary expectations make it a more plausible option than initially thought.

Final prediction: *0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the 2023 NBA Finals or the 2023 Stanley Cup Finals go to a game 7, given that the NBA Finals are currently tied 1-1 between the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat, and the Stanley Cup Finals are currently 2-0 in favor of the Vegas Golden Knights against the Florida Panthers? The series must be decided before June 15th, 2023, to prevent a game 7. What is the likelihood that at least one of the two series will go to a game 7?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat are tied 1-1, which indicates a competitive series, but the Nuggets have home-court advantage, which could give them an edge in the next games (Strength: 3).
- The Vegas Golden Knights have a 2-0 lead in the Stanley Cup Finals, which might be insurmountable for the Florida Panthers (Strength: 4).
- Both teams in the NBA Finals have shown resilience and have the potential to win the series, but they have also shown vulnerabilities (Strength: 2).
- The Florida Panthers might be able to stage a comeback, but they would need to win three consecutive games, which is a challenging task (Strength: 3).
- The Golden Knights' 2-0 lead is not insurmountable, but they would need to win at least one more game to secure the series, which might give the Panthers an opportunity to mount a comeback (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The NBA Finals have a history of series going to game 7, and the current tie makes it more likely (Strength: 4).
- The Miami Heat have shown the ability to come back from 3-1 deficits in the playoffs before, which gives them hope (Strength: 4).
- The Denver Nuggets have also shown resilience and can win on the road, which makes their chances of winning the series higher (Strength: 3).
- The Florida Panthers have a history of comebacks in the playoffs and might be able to mount a successful challenge against the Golden Knights (Strength: 3).
- The Vegas Golden Knights' 2-0 lead might be a result of a hot start, and the Panthers can adjust their strategy to win the next games (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the likelihood of at least one of the series going to a game 7 is relatively high due to the competitive nature of both series and the history of comebacks in the playoffs. However, the Golden Knights' 2-0 lead and the Nuggets' home-court advantage give them an initial edge.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of at least one of the series going to a game 7 to be around 70%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 70% seems reasonable given the competitive nature of both series. However, it might be too confident, considering that the Golden Knights have a 2-0 lead and the Nuggets have home-court advantage. A more conservative estimate might be in order.

7. Final prediction:
*0.6*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the June 24, 2023, Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff, as per the Electoral Commission for Sierra Leone's (ECSL) official announcement, given that a candidate must secure at least 55% of the total votes to win in the first round, and the key contenders are current President Julius Maada Bio of the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP), Samura Kamara of the All People’s Congress (APC), and Kandeh Yumkella's strategic alliance with Bio of the National Grand Coalition (NGC)?

2. Reasons why the answer might be No (with strength ratings):

- The incumbent President Julius Maada Bio has formed a strategic alliance with Kandeh Yumkella, which might give him an advantage in the election. (Strength: 7/10)
- Bio has been the President of Sierra Leone since 2018 and might have an established base of support. (Strength: 6/10)
- The APC party has a strong presence in Sierra Leone, and Samura Kamara might have a significant following. However, his chances of winning without a strong coalition might be limited. (Strength: 5/10)
- The election is taking place in a country with a relatively stable democracy, which might lead to a more predictable outcome. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be Yes (with strength ratings):

- The election is highly competitive, with multiple strong contenders, which might lead to a fragmented vote and prevent any candidate from securing 55% of the total votes. (Strength: 8/10)
- Sierra Leone's electoral history has seen close elections in the past, with the 2018 presidential election being a notable example. (Strength: 7/10)
- The APC and SLPP have a history of close contests, and the election might be too close to call. (Strength: 6/10)
- The fact that the question is asking about a runoff implies that the ECSL might not have a clear winner in mind, which increases the likelihood of a second round. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the factors mentioned above, it seems that the election is likely to be competitive, and a runoff is a plausible outcome. The incumbent President's strategic alliance and established base of support might give him an advantage, but the strong presence of the APC and the history of close elections in Sierra Leone suggest that the outcome is far from certain.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, considering the competitive nature of the election and the history of close contests in Sierra Leone. However, it might be slightly too confident, given the unpredictability of elections and the many factors that can influence the outcome. A more conservative approach might be to consider a lower probability, taking into account the base rate of elections proceeding to a runoff (which is typically lower than 50%).

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before December 31, 2023, that allows users to access and utilize conversation history without needing to explicitly pass it through the API, enabling more efficient and streamlined interactions with the model? This release should be available in a capacity where users can sign up, which may include application requirements or limited access, but the general public must have a reasonable expectation of accessing it soon.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- **Reason 1: Technical complexity** (Strength: 6/10): Implementing a stateful API may require significant technical advancements and infrastructure changes, which could be time-consuming and challenging for OpenAI to achieve before the end of 2023.
- **Reason 2: Resource allocation** (Strength: 5/10): OpenAI might prioritize other projects or features over the development of a stateful API, potentially delaying its release or allocating limited resources to other areas.
- **Reason 3: Regulatory and security concerns** (Strength: 4/10): Introducing a stateful API might raise concerns about data privacy, security, and regulatory compliance, which could slow down the development process or lead to additional hurdles.
- **Reason 4: OpenAI's focus on other products and services** (Strength: 7/10): OpenAI has been expanding its product offerings, such as DALL-E and ChatGPT, which might divert attention and resources away from the development of a stateful API for GPT-4.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- **Reason 1: Sam Altman's statement** (Strength: 9/10): The CEO of OpenAI explicitly mentioned the development of a stateful API in an interview, indicating a clear intention to release it in the future.
- **Reason 2: Industry trend and competition** (Strength: 8/10): Other companies, such as Google and Meta, are developing stateful APIs for their conversational AI models, which might pressure OpenAI to keep up with the competition and release a stateful API to GPT-4.
- **Reason 3: User demand and feedback** (Strength: 6/10): Users have been requesting a stateful API for GPT-4, and OpenAI might prioritize its development to improve user experience and satisfaction.

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, the main factors influencing the outcome are Sam Altman's statement and the industry trend and competition. While there are valid concerns about technical complexity, resource allocation, and regulatory issues, they are not as strong as the positive factors. The CEO's explicit statement and the competitive landscape in the AI industry suggest that OpenAI is likely to release a stateful API for GPT-4 before the end of 2023.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the initial probability to be 70. This reflects the strong indication from Sam Altman's statement and the competitive pressure, but also acknowledges the potential challenges and uncertainties.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

The initial probability of 70 seems reasonable, considering the available information. However, it might be too low, given the explicit statement from the CEO and the industry trend. A more cautious approach would be to consider the base rate of OpenAI's past announcements and their fulfillment. If OpenAI has a history of following through on announced plans, the probability might be higher.

7. Final prediction:

Considering the base rate and the strong indication from Sam Altman's statement, I adjust the initial probability to 85. This takes into account the potential for OpenAI to follow through on its plans and the competitive pressure in the industry.

*0.85*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.85
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will OpenAI announce a price reduction for the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (reducing the price to <= $0.01/1k prompt tokens for an 8k context window) before December 31, 2023? If OpenAI's pricing model changes to a different method (e.g., sampled tokens), this question resolves as ANNULLED. The question is based on Sam Altman's statement that OpenAI aims to drive the cost of intelligence down and reduce the cost of the APIs over time. This question uses the lowest context window that is at least 8k tokens, as specified in the original question.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- OpenAI's focus on profitability: OpenAI needs to balance its business goals with the cost reduction goal. If they prioritize profitability over cost reduction, they might not meet the target. (Strength: 4)
- Limited demand for GPT-4: If the demand for GPT-4 is not high enough, OpenAI might not see a strong incentive to reduce prices. (Strength: 3)
- Technical challenges: Reducing the cost of GPT-4 by 2/3 might require significant technical advancements, which could be time-consuming or even impossible. (Strength: 4)
- Other priorities: OpenAI might have other priorities, such as developing new products or features, that take precedence over reducing the cost of GPT-4. (Strength: 3)
- Historical price cuts might be a one-time event: OpenAI's previous price cuts might have been exceptional and not indicative of future behavior. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Sam Altman's statement: OpenAI's CEO explicitly stated their goal to drive the cost of intelligence down and reduce the cost of APIs. (Strength: 5)
- OpenAI's history of price cuts: OpenAI has a track record of significant price reductions for GPT-3, which suggests they are committed to cost reduction. (Strength: 5)
- Competition: Other AI companies might be developing similar products, and OpenAI needs to stay competitive by reducing prices. (Strength: 4)
- OpenAI's mission: OpenAI's mission is to create a world where AI benefits everyone, which could be achieved by making their products more affordable. (Strength: 4)
- The cost reduction goal is a near-term priority: Sam Altman mentioned that reducing the cost of GPT-4 is a top priority for 2023. (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons for a "no" answer are significant, but they are not overwhelming. The reasons for a "yes" answer are strong, particularly Sam Altman's statement and OpenAI's history of price cuts. Considering these factors, the probability of OpenAI reducing the price of GPT-4 by at least 2/3 before December 31, 2023, seems plausible.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the initial probability to be around 60.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability might be too low, given the strong reasons for a "yes" answer. OpenAI's history of price cuts and Sam Altman's statement suggest a high likelihood of price reduction. However, the reasons for a "no" answer, such as technical challenges and other priorities, should not be ignored.

7. Final prediction:
*0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will OpenAI release a consumer-facing product, distinct from ChatGPT, that is generally available to the public, before December 31, 2023? The product should not be a version or rebrand of ChatGPT, and should not be a beta or a product restricted to a specific audience (e.g., iOS-only). The product can be a web interface, an app, or any other type of consumer-facing service that utilizes OpenAI's technology.

Reasons why the answer might be no:
1. OpenAI's commitment to not releasing competitive products: Sam Altman explicitly stated in the interview that OpenAI would not release more products beyond ChatGPT, which could be seen as a commitment to avoid direct competition with developers who use OpenAI's APIs. Strength: 7/10
2. Focus on improving ChatGPT and APIs: OpenAI's vision for ChatGPT is to be a super smart assistant for work, and they aim to make their APIs better by being customers of their own product. This suggests that their primary focus is on improving ChatGPT and their APIs, rather than releasing new products. Strength: 6/10
3. OpenAI's resources and priorities: OpenAI might be focusing on other areas, such as developing new AI models or improving their existing products, rather than releasing a new consumer-facing product. Strength: 5/10

Reasons why the answer might be yes:
1. OpenAI's history of innovation: OpenAI has a history of developing innovative products, such as DALL-E 2 and Whisper, which suggests that they are capable of releasing new and unexpected products. Strength: 8/10
2. The need for new revenue streams: As a non-profit organization, OpenAI might need to release new products to generate revenue and sustain themselves. Strength: 6/10
3. The potential for a new product to complement ChatGPT: OpenAI might release a product that complements ChatGPT, such as a tool for content creation or a platform for developers to build on top of ChatGPT. Strength: 5/10

Aggregate considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I think that OpenAI's commitment to not releasing competitive products and their focus on improving ChatGPT and APIs are strong arguments against releasing a new product. However, their history of innovation and the need for new revenue streams suggest that they might still release a new product. I'm also considering the possibility that OpenAI might release a product that complements ChatGPT, which could be a way to achieve their goals without directly competing with developers.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability seems relatively low, considering the potential for OpenAI to release a new product. However, I'm still cautious due to their commitment to not releasing competitive products and their focus on improving ChatGPT and APIs. I might be underestimating the potential for a new product, especially if it's not directly competing with developers.

Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will OpenAI make GPT-3, their large language model, freely available as open-source software, including both the model's weights and the code for training the model, by December 31, 2023? The question resolves as "yes" if both the weights and the training code are open-sourced, and "no" otherwise. The consideration of open-sourcing GPT-3 was mentioned by Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, in an interview, but no timeline was provided. The resolution of this question is contingent on OpenAI's actions by the end of 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):
- OpenAI's primary business model is based on generating revenue from GPT-3, and open-sourcing the model would likely lead to a significant loss of revenue (Strength: 5).
- OpenAI might be concerned about the potential misuse of GPT-3 if it is open-sourced, and the company might not be willing to take on that risk (Strength: 4).
- OpenAI might not have the necessary resources or infrastructure to support open-sourcing GPT-3, such as providing support and maintenance for users (Strength: 3).
- OpenAI's leadership might have changed their stance on open-sourcing GPT-3 since the interview with Sam Altman (Strength: 2).
- OpenAI might be waiting for more advancements in model safety and security before open-sourcing GPT-3 (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):
- Sam Altman explicitly mentioned the importance of open-sourcing GPT-3 in the interview (Strength: 5).
- Open-sourcing GPT-3 could lead to increased collaboration and innovation in the field of natural language processing, which might benefit OpenAI in the long run (Strength: 4).
- OpenAI might be willing to take the risk of open-sourcing GPT-3 if they believe it will lead to increased adoption and usage of their technology (Strength: 3).
- OpenAI might have made significant progress in addressing the concerns around GPT-3's safety and security, making it possible to open-source the model (Strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Taking into account the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that the decision to open-source GPT-3 is a complex one, influenced by both the potential benefits and drawbacks. While Sam Altman's statement suggests a willingness to open-source the model, the potential revenue loss and concerns about misuse are significant obstacles. However, the potential benefits of increased collaboration and innovation might outweigh these concerns.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of OpenAI open-sourcing GPT-3 by December 31, 2023, to be around 40%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40% seems relatively low, considering the explicit statement from Sam Altman. However, the potential drawbacks of open-sourcing GPT-3, such as revenue loss and misuse concerns, might be significant enough to reduce the likelihood of this event. The base rate of open-sourcing large language models is relatively low, as most companies in this field tend to keep their models proprietary.

7. Final prediction:
*0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing for third-party apps before July 1, 2023? This question will resolve as Yes if, before July 1, 2023, Reddit announces any modifications to its announced data API fees, including but not limited to:

1. Altering the pricing structure from $0.24 per 1,000 API calls or an equivalent amount.
2. Changing the threshold for free API usage from 100 queries per minute per OAuth client ID if using OAuth authentication and 10 queries per minute if not using OAuth authentication.
3. Delaying the implementation of the new pricing structure to a date later than July 1, 2023.

This question will not consider rates or implementation dates negotiated with individual organizations, but rather the official fee structure policy. Metaculus will make the final determination as to whether an announcement qualifies and may annul the question if it is unclear whether an announcement meets these criteria.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **Reddit's Resolute Stance**: Reddit's CEO, Steve Huffman, has been adamant about implementing the API changes, indicating a strong commitment to the original plan. (Strength: 7/10)
2. **Lack of Public Backlash**: Despite the initial outcry from developers and users, the public backlash has seemingly subsided, and Reddit may feel that it has weathered the storm. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Reddit's Financial Goals**: Reddit aims to break even next year, and the API changes are likely a key part of its strategy to increase profitability. (Strength: 8/10)
4. **Limited Leverage**: The developers and users protesting the changes may not have sufficient leverage to force Reddit to reconsider its stance. (Strength: 6/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **Growing Public Pressure**: The initial backlash has sparked a coordinated protest involving over 8,000 Reddit communities, which could continue to grow and put pressure on Reddit to reconsider. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Concerns about Third-Party App Viability**: The proposed changes could lead to the shutdown of many popular third-party apps, which might harm Reddit's ecosystem and user experience. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Potential for Alternative Revenue Streams**: Reddit might discover alternative revenue streams that don't rely on API fees, making the current plan unnecessary. (Strength: 4/10)
4. **CEO's Past Statements**: In an AMA session, Steve Huffman mentioned that the company is open to feedback, which could indicate a willingness to revisit the API changes. (Strength: 5/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Considering the reasons above, I weigh the pros and cons and conclude that the likelihood of Reddit announcing changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023, is relatively high. The public backlash, concerns about third-party app viability, and potential for alternative revenue streams contribute to this assessment.

**Initial Probability: 60**

**Evaluation of Initial Probability:**

My initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, but it might be too cautious. The growing public pressure and concerns about third-party app viability could lead to a higher probability. However, Reddit's resolute stance and financial goals suggest that it might be more difficult to change its plans.

**Final Prediction:**

*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad, held in Chiba, Japan from July 2 to July 13, 2023, achieve the highest total score or tie for the highest total score at the end of the competition, as reported on the IMO website? This question is based on the team's past dominance, with China achieving the maximum allowed score of 252 points at the 63rd IMO, and the competition's format, which consists of 6 problems worth 7 points each, solved over two consecutive days with a time limit of four-and-a-half hours per day.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **Increased competition**: The math Olympiad attracts talented students from around the world, and other countries, such as South Korea and the US, have consistently performed well in the past. The increased competition might lead to China's score being surpassed. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Changes in problem types**: The IMO problems are designed to require creativity and problem-solving skills, and the prominence of certain topics like algebraic inequalities and complex numbers might not favor China's strengths. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Team dynamics and performance**: The performance of individual team members can significantly impact the overall score. If China's team experiences a downturn in performance, it might not achieve the highest score. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Past performance is not a guarantee**: While China has dominated the IMO in recent years, past performance is not a guarantee of future success. Other teams might have been working on improving their skills and strategies. (Strength: 8/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **China's past dominance**: China has consistently achieved high scores and even the maximum allowed score in recent years, demonstrating their strength in math Olympiads. (Strength: 9/10)
2. **Experience and expertise**: China's team likely has extensive experience and expertise in solving IMO-style problems, which would give them an advantage over other teams. (Strength: 8/10)
3. **Continuous investment in math education**: China has invested heavily in math education, which has led to a strong foundation in math skills among their students. This investment is likely to continue, giving China an edge in math Olympiads. (Strength: 9/10)
4. **Strategic preparation**: China's team likely has a well-planned strategy for the IMO, including a deep understanding of the problem types and formats, which would help them perform well. (Strength: 8/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Considering the reasons above, I believe that China's past dominance, experience, expertise, and investment in math education give them a strong advantage. However, the increased competition, changes in problem types, and team dynamics might affect their performance. I would rate the likelihood of China achieving the highest score as 85%.

**Initial Probability: 85**

**Reevaluation and Final Prediction:**

Upon reevaluation, I consider the base rate of China's dominance in math Olympiads and the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future success. I also think about the potential for other teams to improve their skills and strategies. I would say that my initial probability of 85% might be excessively confident, given the uncertainty of the competition.

**Final Prediction: *0.65***
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Microsoft successfully acquire Activision Blizzard by December 31, 2023, as agreed upon in the merger contract signed on January 18, 2022, despite the Federal Trade Commission's (FTC) lawsuit filed on June 12, 2023, which temporarily blocked the $69 billion purchase to allow for an antitrust review, and other potential antitrust challenges?

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 8/10):
1. The FTC's lawsuit has already temporarily blocked the acquisition, which may indicate that the regulatory hurdles are significant (Strength: 8/10).
2. The acquisition faces antitrust challenges, which could lead to further delays or even the deal's termination (Strength: 7.5/10).
3. Microsoft may not be able to address the FTC's concerns, leading to a failed acquisition (Strength: 6/10).
4. The company might decide to abandon the acquisition due to the prolonged regulatory process and potential financial implications (Strength: 5/10).

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 8.5/10):
1. Microsoft has a strong financial position and may be able to overcome regulatory hurdles (Strength: 9/10).
2. The company has a history of successfully acquiring and integrating other game studios (Strength: 8.5/10).
3. Microsoft may be able to negotiate a settlement with the FTC or address their concerns, allowing the acquisition to proceed (Strength: 8/10).
4. The acquisition would strengthen Microsoft's position in the gaming industry, making it a strategic move for the company (Strength: 7.5/10).

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the acquisition faces significant regulatory challenges, but Microsoft has a strong financial position and a history of successfully integrating acquired studios. The FTC's lawsuit and potential antitrust challenges are significant hurdles, but they are not insurmountable. The company may be able to address the concerns and proceed with the acquisition.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation:
The initial probability of 60 seems to be a reasonable estimate, considering the significant challenges facing the acquisition. However, it may be slightly too high, given the temporary block by the FTC and the potential for further regulatory hurdles. The base rate of successful mergers and acquisitions is around 70-80%, but this case is particularly complex due to the antitrust concerns.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and expanded question:**

Will Meta's Voicebox model or its code be made publicly available through a leak, hack, or any other means, by July 1, 2023, despite Meta's decision not to release it due to potential misuse risks, considering the precedent set by the leak of Meta's LLaMA model in March 2023? This question resolves as Yes if credible media or tech industry reports, or official statements from Meta AI, confirm that the Voicebox AI model or its code is accessible to people not affiliated with Meta or its partners, whether through legal or unauthorized means, by the resolution date.

**Reasons why the answer might be No:**

1. **Meta's caution and control**: Meta has explicitly stated that it will not release the Voicebox model due to potential misuse risks. This suggests that the company is taking a cautious approach to handling sensitive technology. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Lack of precedent**: While LLaMA was leaked, it's possible that Meta has taken additional measures to secure the Voicebox model, such as implementing stronger access controls or monitoring. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Limited information**: There is currently limited information available about the Voicebox model, which makes it harder for potential leakers to target it specifically. (Strength: 4/10)
4. **Meta's track record on AI research**: Meta has a history of conducting responsible AI research and has made efforts to promote transparency and safety in AI development. (Strength: 7/10)

**Reasons why the answer might be Yes:**

1. **Precedent set by LLaMA leak**: The leak of LLaMA in March 2023 demonstrates that Meta's large language models can be vulnerable to leaks, which increases the likelihood of a similar incident with Voicebox. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Growing interest in AI research**: The rapid progress in AI research and the increasing interest in generative models like Voicebox make it more likely that someone will attempt to leak or obtain the model. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Difficulty in securing sensitive data**: Even with robust security measures, sensitive data like AI models can still be leaked or obtained through various means, such as insider threats or sophisticated attacks. (Strength: 6/10)
4. **Potential motivations for leaking**: Researchers, competitors, or individuals with malicious intentions may be motivated to leak or obtain the Voicebox model for their own purposes, despite Meta's efforts to keep it secure. (Strength: 5/10)

**Aggregated considerations:**

Considering the reasons above, I weigh the likelihood of the Voicebox model being leaked as follows:

* Strength of reasons for "No": 22/40
* Strength of reasons for "Yes": 26/40

Given the precedent set by the LLaMA leak and the growing interest in AI research, I lean towards a higher likelihood of a leak.

**Initial probability:** 55

**Evaluation of initial probability:**

My initial probability of 55 seems relatively moderate, considering the reasons for both "Yes" and "No". However, I may be underestimating the likelihood of a leak, given the precedent set by LLaMA and the potential motivations of individuals or organizations to obtain the Voicebox model.

**Final prediction:** *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Tesla's market capitalization exceed $1 trillion before July 1, 2023, given its recent upward trend and current market capitalization of over $850 billion, which is still below its all-time high of over $1.2 trillion in 2021? This question will resolve as Yes if the total market capitalization of Tesla (TSLA) is greater than $1 trillion (USD) at any time between June 20, 2023, and July 1, 2023. Market capitalization data will be obtained from reliable sources such as CompaniesMarketCap or YahooFinance.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The recent 131% increase in share value within 2023 might be a short-term surge, and the market could correct itself before July 1, 2023. (Strength: 3)
- Tesla's market capitalization has already exceeded $850 billion, but it still lags behind its 2021 peak. This might indicate a ceiling or a more challenging path to reaching $1 trillion. (Strength: 4)
- The global economy, particularly the automotive and tech sectors, might experience a downturn or a correction in the coming weeks, affecting Tesla's stock performance. (Strength: 2)
- Tesla's financials and operations might not support a significant increase in market capitalization, given the high valuations and intense competition in the EV market. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Tesla's strong brand, innovative products, and growing demand for electric vehicles could continue to drive its stock price upwards, potentially exceeding $1 trillion. (Strength: 5)
- The company's leadership in the EV market, with a significant lead in terms of market share and production capacity, might allow it to maintain its growth momentum. (Strength: 4)
- Tesla's expanding product lineup, including the Cybertruck and Semi, could attract new investors and increase demand for its shares. (Strength: 3)
- The increasing adoption of electric vehicles globally, driven by government policies and environmental concerns, might continue to boost Tesla's stock price. (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the key factors that will influence Tesla's market capitalization are its financial performance, the global economic environment, and the company's competitive position in the EV market. While there are valid concerns about the market correcting itself or Tesla's financials not supporting a significant increase, the company's strong brand, innovative products, and growing demand for electric vehicles provide a solid foundation for continued growth.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the mixed signals from both sides. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as some of the reasons for a "yes" answer are quite strong (e.g., Tesla's leadership in the EV market and the increasing adoption of electric vehicles). Considering the base rate of the event, it's worth noting that Tesla's market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion is a relatively rare event, and the company's previous peak was only reached in 2021.

7. Final prediction: *0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the 'Titan' submersible, which went missing on June 18, 2023, in the North Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Newfoundland in Canada, be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22? This question resolves as Yes if two credible media reports indicate the recovery of the submersible by the specified time. The submersible was designed to carry five people and was on an expedition to view the wreckage of RMS Titanic.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

*   The recovery operation might be complex and time-consuming, and the initial search efforts may not have been successful. (Strength: 6/10)
*   The submersible's depth and location in the North Atlantic Ocean might make it difficult to recover, especially if it sank to a great depth or is located in a remote area. (Strength: 7/10)
*   The submersible's design or materials might not be suitable for recovery, or it may have suffered significant damage during the incident. (Strength: 5/10)
*   The recovery operation might be delayed due to bad weather, equipment failure, or other unforeseen circumstances. (Strength: 8/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

*   The recovery operation might have been successful in the initial search efforts, and the submersible could be recovered quickly. (Strength: 4/10)
*   The submersible's design and materials might be suitable for recovery, and the recovery team might have access to advanced technology and equipment. (Strength: 6/10)
*   The recovery operation might be prioritized, and resources might be allocated to ensure a swift recovery. (Strength: 7/10)
*   Two credible media reports might emerge indicating the recovery of the submersible, which could increase the likelihood of the answer being yes. (Strength: 9/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the recovery operation's complexity, the submersible's location, and the potential for delays or setbacks, there are more reasons to believe the answer might be no (Strength: 7.6/10). However, the possibility of successful recovery and the potential for two credible media reports to emerge increases the likelihood of the answer being yes (Strength: 6.8/10). Overall, the balance of evidence suggests that the answer might be no.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be around 40. This reflects the uncertainty and the potential for both positive and negative outcomes.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems reasonable, considering the complexity of the recovery operation and the potential for setbacks. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the potential for successful recovery and the emergence of two credible media reports.

7. Final prediction:
Given the considerations above, I would revise the probability to *0.55*. This reflects a moderate level of confidence in the possibility of the submersible being recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**
Will the Black Sea Grain Initiative be extended before July 19, 2023, by a credible source (such as the United Nations or official government statements from Ukraine and Russia) for a period beyond July 18, 2023, with both Ukraine and Russia agreeing to the extension?

**Reasons Why the Answer Might Be No:**

1. **Russian Demands Not Met**: Russia has made several demands, including the removal of obstacles to Russian grain and fertilizer exports, which must be met for the extension. If these demands are not met, Russia might not agree to the extension. Strength: 60% (Russia has been specific about its demands, but it's unclear if Ukraine will agree to them)
2. **Ukraine's Stance**: A Ukrainian diplomat has stated that Russia is 99.9% likely to quit the deal, suggesting that Ukraine is not confident in the extension. Strength: 80% (a high-confidence statement from a Ukrainian diplomat, but it's unclear if this reflects the official Ukrainian position)
3. **Alternative Routes for Ammonia**: Russia's ammonia producer, Uralchem, has found an alternative route for exporting ammonia, reducing the need to use the Ukrainian port of Odesa. Strength: 40% (this might reduce Russia's dependence on the deal, but it's unclear if it's a decisive factor)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might Be Yes:**

1. **Previous Extensions**: The Black Sea Grain Initiative has been extended multiple times in the past, suggesting that both parties are willing to find a compromise. Strength: 70% (previous extensions suggest a willingness to cooperate, but each extension has come with conditions)
2. **Global Food Security Concerns**: The deal has helped alleviate global food security concerns, and both Ukraine and Russia might be motivated to continue it to maintain stability. Strength: 50% (global food security concerns are a significant factor, but it's unclear if they're enough to overcome Russian demands)
3. **UN Involvement**: The United Nations has been instrumental in brokering the deal and might continue to play a mediating role to find a solution. Strength: 60% (the UN's involvement is a positive factor, but its ability to resolve the issue is uncertain)

**Aggregated Considerations:**
Considering the reasons above, the most significant factors are Ukraine's stance and Russia's demands. While there are valid reasons for both sides to extend the deal, the Ukrainian diplomat's statement and Russia's demands create uncertainty. The previous extensions and UN involvement provide some optimism, but they are not enough to overcome the concerns.

**Initial Probability:**
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of the Black Sea Grain Initiative being extended before July 19, 2023, at 40%.

**Evaluation and Final Prediction:**
My initial probability seems relatively low, considering the deal's previous extensions and the global food security concerns. However, the Ukrainian diplomat's statement and Russia's demands introduce significant uncertainty. Upon further reflection, I consider the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of the deal being extended in the past) and the potential for last-minute negotiations. These factors lead me to adjust my initial probability.

**Final Prediction:**
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023, and not be in Russian custody as of June 30, 2023, 7 pm ET, according to Wikipedia? This question assumes that Prigozhin's leadership status will be reflected on Wikipedia, and his arrest status will be publicly known by this date.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 8/10** Prigozhin's alleged armed mutiny against the Russian Ministry of Defense might have led to severe consequences, including arrest, due to the gravity of his actions and the potential threat to national security.
- **Strength: 6/10** The Russian security services have called for Prigozhin's arrest, indicating a strong likelihood of law enforcement action against him.
- **Strength: 4/10** Prigozhin's promise to "March for Justice" might be seen as a provocative statement, potentially leading to a crackdown on him by the authorities.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 3/10** Prigozhin has not been arrested as of the question's background information, suggesting that he might still be at large and potentially in control of the Wagner Group.
- **Strength: 2/10** Prigozhin's actions might be seen as a power struggle within the Russian military, and his survival and continued leadership could be a result of his ability to maintain control within the Wagner Group.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the balance of evidence seems to lean towards Prigozhin being in a precarious position, with the Russian security services calling for his arrest and the severity of his actions against the Ministry of Defense. However, his continued absence of arrest and his control over the Wagner Group suggest that he might still be in a position of power.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively low, considering the severity of Prigozhin's actions and the response from the Russian security services. However, the lack of concrete information on his current status and the uncertainty surrounding the situation might contribute to a relatively lower confidence level. The base rate of such events is also difficult to estimate, as there is limited historical data on armed mutinies within the Russian military.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the Wagner Group or forces aligned with the Wagner Group control any part of Moscow (defined as an area equivalent to at least 1 city block) before 8pm ET on July 1, 2023, as reported by any of the following sources: The Economist, The New York Times, Reuters, The Associated Press, The Guardian, The BBC, Al Jazeera, South China Morning Post, The Institute for the Study of War, International Crisis Group, or Fine Print?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The Wagner Group is a relatively small force, and the Russian military has a significant advantage in terms of numbers and resources (strength: 4).
- The Russian government has vowed to suppress the mutiny, and President Putin has described the Wagner's actions as treason (strength: 5).
- The Wagner Group has not yet engaged in any major ground clashes, which might indicate a lack of momentum (strength: 3).
- The Russian military has the capability to use airpower to weaken the Wagner Group, which could hinder their advance (strength: 4).
- The Russian government has a strong incentive to maintain control over Moscow, and the city is a strategic location (strength: 5).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The Wagner Group has already taken control of Rostov-on-Don and is advancing towards Moscow (strength: 4).
- The Wagner Group has a strong motivation to overthrow the Russian government, which could drive them to take bold action (strength: 4).
- The Russian military's response to the Wagner Group's rebellion has been slow and disorganized, which might give the Wagner Group an opportunity to gain ground (strength: 3).
- The Wagner Group has a significant amount of experience fighting in Ukraine, which could give them an advantage in terms of tactics and strategy (strength: 3).
- President Putin's statement that the Wagner's actions are treasonous might be a sign of weakness, rather than strength, and could embolden the Wagner Group (strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:

The Wagner Group has made significant gains, but the Russian military has a significant advantage in terms of numbers and resources. The Russian government has vowed to suppress the mutiny, and the city of Moscow is a strategic location that they will likely want to maintain control over. However, the Wagner Group has a strong motivation to overthrow the government, and their experience fighting in Ukraine could give them an advantage. The slow response of the Russian military to the rebellion could also give the Wagner Group an opportunity to gain ground.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the answer being yes at 20%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

The initial probability of 20% might be too low, as it does not take into account the Wagner Group's recent gains and their motivation to overthrow the government. However, it also does not account for the significant advantage that the Russian military has in terms of numbers and resources. A more conservative estimate might be 10%, but this is still a relatively low probability.

7. Final prediction:

*0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group, brokered by Alexander Lukashenko, hold through the end of June 2023, meaning that Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group will not publicly declare a mobilization of their forces within Russia with the goal of enacting change within the Russian government, nor will there be credible reports of such mobilizations before 8pm ET on June 30, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

* The Wagner Group has a history of defying authority and taking actions that challenge the Kremlin's control. (Strength: 6/10)
* Yevgeny Prigozhin has a reputation for being a strong-willed leader who may not be easily swayed by a temporary ceasefire agreement. (Strength: 5/10)
* The agreement brokered by Alexander Lukashenko may be seen as a temporary solution, and Prigozhin may choose to renege on it if he feels it is no longer beneficial to him. (Strength: 4/10)
* There may be underlying tensions or power struggles within the Russian government that could lead to a breakdown in the agreement. (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

* The agreement brokered by Alexander Lukashenko may provide a genuine opportunity for Prigozhin to achieve his goals without resorting to violence. (Strength: 6/10)
* Prigozhin may have calculated that a temporary ceasefire is in his best interest, allowing him to regroup and reassess his strategy. (Strength: 5/10)
* The Kremlin may have made concessions to Prigozhin as part of the agreement, which could help to maintain stability in the short term. (Strength: 4/10)
* The international community may be watching closely, and the pressure to maintain the agreement may be too great for Prigozhin to risk a breakdown. (Strength: 3/10)

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the reasons listed above, it seems that the balance of evidence leans slightly towards the agreement holding, but there are still significant uncertainties and potential risks involved. The strength of the reasons for an "yes" outcome seems to outweigh those for a "no" outcome, but the difference is relatively small.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of confidence: My initial probability of 60 may be too confident, given the high level of uncertainty and potential for unexpected events to occur. The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of the agreement holding without any additional information) is likely very low, given the history of the Wagner Group and the Kremlin's relationship. This should temper my confidence in the initial probability.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a publicly-evident cage match directly between the two of them before January 1, 2024? The question is based on a Twitter exchange where Elon Musk suggested a cage fight with Mark Zuckerberg, who responded with a "send me location" message. This exchange has sparked speculation about the possibility of the cage match occurring. The resolution criteria for this question is a publicly-evident cage match between the two billionaires before January 1, 2024.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- Reason 1: Both Musk and Zuckerberg are high-profile figures with a lot to lose. Engaging in a cage fight could damage their public image and potentially harm their business interests (strength: 4).
- Reason 2: The initial Twitter exchange might have been a publicity stunt or a joke, and neither party is genuinely interested in a physical confrontation (strength: 3).
- Reason 3: Organizing a cage fight between two billionaires would be logistically challenging and might require significant resources, which could be a deterrent (strength: 4).
- Reason 4: Both Musk and Zuckerberg have a history of engaging in public feuds, but a cage fight might be too extreme, even for them (strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- Reason 1: The initial Twitter exchange suggests that both parties are interested in a cage fight, and their public statements have been taken seriously by many (strength: 4).
- Reason 2: Both Musk and Zuckerberg are known for their competitive nature, which could lead them to follow through on their initial suggestion (strength: 4).
- Reason 3: A cage fight between the two billionaires could generate significant publicity and attention, which might be beneficial for their business interests (strength: 3).
- Reason 4: The cage fight could be organized as a charity event or a publicity stunt, which would allow both parties to save face while still engaging in the spectacle (strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I believe that the cage fight is more likely to happen than not. However, the reasons against the cage fight ( Reasons 1, 2, and 3) are stronger than the reasons for it (Reasons 1, 2, and 3). The competitive nature of both Musk and Zuckerberg is a significant factor, but their public image and business interests might ultimately prevail.

5. Initial probability:
Based on my aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of a publicly-evident cage match between Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg before January 1, 2024, to be around 20.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability might be too low, considering the competitive nature of both Musk and Zuckerberg. However, the reasons against the cage fight are significant, and it's essential to consider the base rate of such events. A cage fight between two billionaires is an unusual occurrence, and the likelihood of it happening should be adjusted accordingly.

7. Final prediction:
*0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and expanded question:**

Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023, as part of the Chain of Freedom Scotland rally, with the chain being continuous except for openings where roads intersect the canal route, and with an estimated 50,000 people or more in attendance to ensure the chain is nearly continuous? If reports are unclear or conflicting, this question will resolve as Yes if the median attendance estimate is 50,000 people or more.

**Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):**

1. **Logistical challenges**: Organizing an event of this scale requires significant planning, coordination, and resources. There might be unforeseen issues with logistics, such as inclement weather, last-minute cancellations, or transportation disruptions, which could impact the event's success. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Public awareness and participation**: While the event is inspired by a similar event in the past, it's uncertain how well-known the Chain of Freedom Scotland rally is among the general public, which might affect participation rates. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Roads and intersections**: The event organizers have stated that roads will not be blocked, which might lead to gaps in the human chain where roads intersect the canal route. This could make it challenging to achieve a nearly continuous chain. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Weather conditions**: The event is scheduled to take place on 14 October, which might be a day with unpredictable weather in Scotland. Inclement weather could discourage people from attending or make it difficult to maintain a continuous chain. (Strength: 6/10)

**Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):**

1. **Inspiration from a successful precedent**: The Baltic Way event in 1989 was a massive success, with approximately 2 million people participating. This could inspire a similar level of enthusiasm and participation for the Chain of Freedom Scotland rally. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Organizational efforts**: The event organizers have stated that they are estimating one person per meter, which suggests a thorough planning process to ensure sufficient attendance. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Community engagement**: The event aims to promote freedom and unity, which might attract people from various backgrounds and communities, increasing the likelihood of a successful event. (Strength: 6/10)
4. **Media coverage and promotion**: The event has a clear goal and a planned route, which might generate significant media attention and promotion, helping to raise awareness and encourage participation. (Strength: 7/10)

**Aggregated considerations:**

Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I think the event has a good chance of success. The inspiration from a successful precedent, organizational efforts, and potential community engagement and media coverage all contribute to a positive outlook. However, logistical challenges, public awareness, and weather conditions might hinder the event's success.

**Initial probability:** 62

**Evaluation of confidence:**

My initial probability of 62% seems reasonable, considering the factors mentioned above. However, I might be underestimating the impact of community engagement and media coverage, which could contribute to a higher attendance rate. On the other hand, I might be overestimating the impact of logistical challenges, which could be mitigated by the event organizers' planning.

**Final prediction:** *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) close at or above $35,000 before August 1, 2023, given its historical performance and current market trends? This question requires analyzing the DJIA's past milestones, recent fluctuations, and economic indicators to make an informed prediction.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The DJIA has not reached $35,000 since early 2022, indicating a potential stagnation in growth (Strength: 4).
- High inflation and rising federal funds rates in 2022 led to a decline in the DJIA, suggesting that economic pressures could continue to impact the market (Strength: 4).
- The DJIA is a gauge of the broader U.S. economy, and a potential recession or economic downturn could negatively impact the index (Strength: 5).
- The DJIA is heavily influenced by the performance of its 30 components, and any significant decline in one or more of these companies could affect the overall index (Strength: 4).
- The DJIA has a history of fluctuations and corrections, and it's possible that the market may experience a downturn before reaching $35,000 (Strength: 3).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The DJIA has a history of reaching new milestones, and a rebound in the market could lead to a close above $35,000 (Strength: 4).
- The DJIA has shown resilience in the past, and a strong economy could drive the index to new heights (Strength: 4).
- The DJIA's 30 components are diverse, and a strong performance in certain sectors could contribute to the index reaching $35,000 (Strength: 3).
- Central banks and governments may implement policies to stimulate economic growth, which could positively impact the DJIA (Strength: 3).
- Market sentiment and investor confidence can shift rapidly, and a sudden surge in optimism could drive the DJIA to new highs (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I believe that the DJIA's historical performance, current market trends, and economic indicators suggest a moderate likelihood of reaching $35,000 before August 1, 2023. However, the potential for economic downturns, fluctuations, and corrections in the market cannot be ignored.

5. Initial probability: 42

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 42 may be slightly too confident, as it doesn't fully account for the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of the DJIA reaching $35,000 before August 1, 2023, without any external factors). A more conservative approach would be to consider a base rate of around 10-20% for such a specific event, given the DJIA's historical fluctuations and the unpredictability of the market.

7. Final prediction: *0.38*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.38
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023, as reported by reputable sources, given the current financial situation and the statements made by its representatives in response to the initial report by Israel's public broadcasting network in late June 2023? The question resolves Yes if, before January 1, 2024, reputable sources confirm the Palestinian Authority's bankruptcy.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 6/10**: The Palestinian Authority has received financial aid from various countries and international organizations in the past, which might provide a temporary cushion against bankruptcy. 
- **Strength: 8/10**: The Palestinian Authority has been working to diversify its economy and reduce its reliance on foreign aid, which could potentially improve its financial situation.
- **Strength: 4/10**: The Palestinian Authority might be able to negotiate a bailout or financial assistance package with other countries or international organizations to avoid bankruptcy.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 9/10**: The Palestinian Authority has a significant financial crisis, as reported by Israel's public broadcasting network, which could lead to bankruptcy if not addressed.
- **Strength: 7/10**: The Palestinian Authority's financial situation is heavily reliant on foreign aid, which can be unpredictable and subject to change, increasing the risk of bankruptcy.
- **Strength: 5/10**: The Palestinian Authority's economic diversification efforts might not be enough to prevent bankruptcy, especially if the current financial crisis worsens.

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Palestinian Authority's financial situation is uncertain, but the initial report by Israel's public broadcasting network suggests a significant crisis. While there are reasons to believe the Authority might avoid bankruptcy (e.g., foreign aid, economic diversification), the risk of bankruptcy seems higher due to the Authority's reliance on foreign aid and the severity of the financial crisis.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of the Palestinian Authority declaring itself bankrupt before the end of 2023 to be around 60.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems moderately confident, but it might be too high considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of a country declaring bankruptcy is relatively low). Additionally, there are many factors that could influence the Palestinian Authority's financial situation, making it difficult to predict with certainty.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued by the government of Virginia (either state or local) for any area related to a tropical cyclone in the state of Virginia before January 1, 2024? This question includes but is not limited to, a mandatory evacuation for a specific city or region within the state, as long as it is related to a tropical cyclone.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 40%**: Virginia's hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, and the question is asked on June 29. This might suggest that the likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the remaining months of the hurricane season is lower, especially considering that the peak hurricane season in the Atlantic is usually in August, September, and October.
- **Strength: 30%**: Virginia has not been severely affected by a hurricane in recent years, which might indicate that the state's emergency management systems are well-prepared, and the likelihood of a mandatory evacuation order being issued might be lower.
- **Strength: 30%**: The "Know Your Zone" system, which is used for evacuation orders, is designed to minimize unnecessary evacuations and ensure that residents are only evacuated when necessary. This system might lead to fewer mandatory evacuations being issued.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 60%**: The hurricane season in Virginia can be unpredictable, and even a relatively weak storm can cause significant damage and flooding. A tropical cyclone could still form and affect the state, leading to a mandatory evacuation order.
- **Strength: 20%**: The "Know Your Zone" system is designed to respond to emergencies, and the emergency managers at the state and local level will work with local media and social media to notify residents of impacted zones. This might lead to a mandatory evacuation order being issued if the situation warrants it.
- **Strength: 20%**: The Governor, Virginia Emergency Management Officials, and Local Governments have the authority to order a mandatory evacuation, and they might do so if the situation demands it.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the overall likelihood of a mandatory evacuation order being issued by the government of Virginia (either state or local) for any area related to a tropical cyclone in the state of Virginia before January 1, 2024, is around 50-60%. The uncertainty in the hurricane season and the potential for a tropical cyclone to form and affect the state are balanced by the relatively low likelihood of a severe storm occurring in the remaining months of the hurricane season and the effectiveness of the "Know Your Zone" system.

5. Initial probability:
60

6. Evaluation:
The initial probability of 60 might be considered somewhat low, given the potential for a tropical cyclone to form and affect the state. However, considering the relatively low likelihood of a severe storm occurring in the remaining months of the hurricane season and the effectiveness of the "Know Your Zone" system, the probability seems reasonable. The base rate of the event (i.e., the frequency of mandatory evacuations in Virginia due to tropical cyclones) is relatively low, which might also contribute to the moderate probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command as the head of the Russian aerospace forces by July 11th, 2023, due to the ongoing crisis and speculation about his loyalty and divisions within the Russian leadership following the recent uprising led by Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group's movement towards Moscow, and will a new Commander-in-Chief be appointed in his place?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Surovikin's position is not directly tied to the events of the uprising, as he was reportedly aware of it in advance, which might suggest he is not directly involved in the crisis. (Strength: 3)
- The Russian government might choose to keep Surovikin in his position to maintain continuity and stability in the aerospace forces, especially during a time of turmoil. (Strength: 4)
- Surovikin's removal might not be a priority for the Russian leadership, which could be more focused on addressing the immediate consequences of the uprising. (Strength: 3)
- The Russian government might choose to handle the crisis internally, without publicly removing key figures like Surovikin. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Surovikin's association with the Wagner Group and the uprising might make him a liability for the Russian leadership, leading to his removal. (Strength: 5)
- The crisis has already led to significant changes in the Russian military leadership, and Surovikin's removal might be part of a broader shake-up. (Strength: 4)
- Surovikin's involvement in the events leading up to the uprising might be seen as a betrayal by the Russian leadership, leading to his removal. (Strength: 5)
- The Russian government might use Surovikin's removal as a way to demonstrate a strong response to the crisis and restore order. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The strength of the reasons for "yes" seems to outweigh those for "no," with several strong reasons pointing to Surovikin's potential removal. However, the Russian government's handling of the crisis is unpredictable, and the removal of a high-ranking official like Surovikin would be a significant move.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of General Sergei Surovikin being stripped of his command by July 11th at 60%.

6. Evaluation of confidence:
My initial probability seems to be somewhat cautious, given the strength of the reasons for "yes." However, the Russian government's actions are often unpredictable, and the base rate of high-ranking officials being removed or reassigned in times of crisis is relatively low. This might make my initial probability slightly too high.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour de France, which is scheduled to take place on Sunday, July 9th, on a mountainous route featuring a volcano climb, also hold the yellow jersey at the end of stage 9, considering the fact that this stage will be a challenging mountain climbing stage and the first rest day will follow the next day, thereby allowing the current leader to potentially extend their lead, and given that the yellow jersey represents the cyclist with the lowest cumulative time in the general classification?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Unexpected weather conditions** (Strength: 2/10): Unpredictable weather on the mountainous terrain could lead to a significant time gap between the winner of the stage and the current yellow jersey holder, potentially altering the general classification.
- **Reason 2: Other cyclists' strong performances** (Strength: 4/10): A strong performance from a different cyclist could result in them gaining enough time to overtake the current yellow jersey holder, even if the winner of stage 9 is the current leader.
- **Reason 3: Mechanical issues or crashes** (Strength: 3/10): Mechanical issues or crashes could occur during the stage, affecting the performance of the current yellow jersey holder, potentially allowing the winner of stage 9 to take the lead.
- **Reason 4: Tactics and team strategy** (Strength: 6/10): The team of the current yellow jersey holder might employ tactics to protect their leader's position, potentially preventing the winner of stage 9 from taking the yellow jersey.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: The winner of stage 9 is the current leader** (Strength: 9/10): Given that the question asks if the winner of stage 9 will also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage, it is highly likely that the winner of stage 9 is the current leader, making this reason a strong indicator of a yes answer.
- **Reason 2: Mountain stage characteristics** (Strength: 8/10): Mountain stages often result in a significant time gap between the top riders, making it more likely that the winner of the stage will also hold the yellow jersey.
- **Reason 3: Limited time to overtake** (Strength: 7/10): With the next day being a rest day, there is limited time for other cyclists to overtake the winner of stage 9 and take the yellow jersey.

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons for a no answer are relatively weak, while the reasons for a yes answer are strong. The mountain stage and the limited time to overtake the winner of stage 9 increase the likelihood of the current leader retaining the yellow jersey.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the answer being yes to be 85.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 85 seems relatively high, considering the potential for unexpected events like weather conditions, mechanical issues, or strong performances from other cyclists. However, the mountain stage characteristics and the limited time to overtake the winner of stage 9 are strong indicators of a yes answer.

7. Final prediction:
*0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Ukraine regain control of the central area of Bakhmut, specifically the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building located at Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500, by the end of September 2023, as per the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map? The resolution will be based on the building's categorization on the map, which can be accessed by viewing the map, clicking on the'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for the exact location.

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Russian control of the city's administrative center**: Russia has maintained control of the city's administrative building since April 2023, and it may be challenging for Ukraine to regain control of this strategic location. (Strength: 4)
2. **Russian military presence in the area**: The Wagner Group and the Russian army have been actively fighting in Bakhmut, and it's likely that they will maintain a strong presence in the area. (Strength: 4)
3. **Ukrainian counter-offensive challenges**: While Ukraine has launched a counter-offensive in June 2023, it's unclear whether they can successfully retake the central area of Bakhmut, especially considering the ongoing fighting and the Russian military's defenses. (Strength: 3)
4. **Limited Ukrainian resources**: Ukraine's military resources are limited, and it's unclear whether they have sufficient forces to retake the city's administrative center. (Strength: 3)
5. **Russian fortifications**: The Russian military has likely fortified the area, making it difficult for Ukraine to regain control. (Strength: 2)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Ukrainian counter-offensive momentum**: Ukraine's counter-offensive in June 2023 has shown signs of momentum, and it's possible that they can build on this momentum to retake the central area of Bakhmut. (Strength: 4)
2. **Ukrainian military gains**: Ukraine has made significant gains in recent months, and it's possible that they can continue to push back against Russian forces. (Strength: 4)
3. **Russian military setbacks**: The Russian military has suffered significant setbacks in recent months, which could weaken their ability to defend the city's administrative center. (Strength: 3)
4. **International support**: Ukraine has received significant international support, including military aid and diplomatic backing, which could help them regain control of the city. (Strength: 3)
5. **Ukrainian determination**: Ukraine has shown determination to retake the city, and it's possible that they will make a concerted effort to regain control of the administrative center. (Strength: 2)

Aggregate considerations:
Considering the above points, I believe that the probability of Ukraine regaining control of the central area of Bakhmut by the end of September 2023 is relatively low, but not impossible. The Russian military's control of the city's administrative center and the ongoing fighting make it challenging for Ukraine to retake the area. However, Ukraine's counter-offensive momentum, military gains, and international support suggest that there is a possibility of regaining control.

Initial probability: 30

Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 30 seems reasonable, considering the challenging circumstances for Ukraine to regain control of the city's administrative center. However, it's possible that I may be underestimating Ukraine's capabilities and the momentum of their counter-offensive.

Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the Russian Luna-25 mission successfully reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023, given that the mission is currently scheduled to launch from Vostochny Cosmodrome on August 11, 2023, and any credible media report of reaching Earth's orbit before this date will resolve the question as "Yes", while any launch delay beyond this question resolution deadline, mission cancellation, or failure during launch preventing Luna-25 from reaching Earth's orbit will resolve the question as "No"?

Reasons why the answer might be "No" (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. **Launch delay history**: The Luna-25 mission has a history of delays, with the most recent one moving the launch from July to August. This suggests that there might be underlying issues with the mission's preparation or the launch infrastructure. (Strength: 4)
2. **Technical difficulties**: The head of Roscosmos, Yuri Borisov, mentioned that the mission's success is estimated to be 70%, implying that there are still some technical challenges to be overcome. (Strength: 3)
3. **Launch window constraints**: The launch window for Luna-25 is relatively narrow, and any further delays might make it difficult to meet the August 11 launch date. (Strength: 2)
4. **Unforeseen circumstances**: Any unexpected issues, such as a rocket malfunction or bad weather, could potentially delay or cancel the launch. (Strength: 2)

Reasons why the answer might be "Yes" (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. **Recent progress**: According to Yuri Borisov, the preparations for the launch are proceeding as planned, and the landing simulations are being intensively carried out to eliminate any nuances. (Strength: 4)
2. **Reliability of Soyuz-2.1b rocket**: The Soyuz-2.1b rocket has been very reliable in recent years, which increases the chances of a successful launch. (Strength: 4)
3. **Experience with lunar missions**: Although it's been 46 years since the last Soviet lunar mission, Russia has experience with lunar exploration, and this might help them overcome any technical challenges. (Strength: 3)
4. **Motivation and resources**: The Russian space agency, Roscosmos, seems to be motivated to succeed with the Luna-25 mission, and they have the necessary resources to support it. (Strength: 3)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, I would say that the chances of Luna-25 successfully reaching Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023, are moderate to high. The recent progress, reliability of the Soyuz-2.1b rocket, and experience with lunar missions are positive factors, while the launch delay history, technical difficulties, and unforeseen circumstances are potential risks. I would rate the probability of a successful launch at around 70-75%.

Initial probability: 72.5

Evaluation of the calculated probability:

My calculated probability seems reasonable, considering the available information. However, I might be underestimating the potential risks associated with the launch delay history and technical difficulties. Additionally, I should consider the base rate of the event, which is the general success rate of space missions. This might be a useful factor to incorporate into my forecast.

Final prediction: *0.675*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.675
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and expanded question:**

Will Russia successfully land on the Moon with their first attempt of the Luna-25 mission, defined as the first mission to achieve liftoff with a lunar lander on board and the stated intention to land the lander on the Moon, where the lander touches the ground in a controlled and gradual way without being rendered inoperable, and this event is confirmed by credible media sources?

**Reasons why the answer might be no:**

1. **Historical failure rate of Russian lunar missions**: The Soviet Union's lunar program experienced several failures, with only a few successful missions. This suggests a higher risk of failure for the Luna-25 mission. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Technological challenges**: The lunar landing is a complex and challenging task, requiring precise navigation, communication, and control. Russia's space program has faced technological setbacks in the past, which could impact the success of Luna-25. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Launch window and scheduling risks**: The launch window for Luna-25 is scheduled for August 2023, which is relatively soon. Delays or setbacks could impact the mission's success. (Strength: 4/10)
4. **Competing with other lunar missions**: Several countries and private companies are planning lunar missions, which could create a high-pressure environment for Russia's Luna-25 mission. (Strength: 3/10)

**Reasons why the answer might be yes:**

1. **Russia's experience with lunar missions**: Although the Soviet Union's lunar program had its share of failures, they also achieved several successes, including the first impact on the Moon's surface. Russia has experience with lunar missions and has likely learned from past successes and failures. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Advances in technology**: The development of new technologies and materials has improved the chances of successful lunar missions. Russia has likely invested in updating its technology to improve the chances of Luna-25's success. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Russian space program's current capabilities**: Russia's space program has achieved recent successes, such as the Soyuz MS-22 mission to the International Space Station. This suggests that the program has the capability to execute complex space missions. (Strength: 6/10)
4. **Roscosmos's focus on lunar exploration**: Roscosmos has explicitly stated its intention to return to the Moon and has allocated resources for the Luna-25 mission. This focus and commitment suggest a high level of dedication to the mission's success. (Strength: 8/10)

**Aggregated considerations:**

Based on the reasons provided, the balance of evidence suggests that the likelihood of Russia successfully landing on the Moon with their first attempt is moderate. While there are valid concerns about historical failure rates, technological challenges, and competing missions, Russia's experience with lunar missions, advances in technology, and the program's current capabilities and focus on lunar exploration suggest a higher likelihood of success.

**Initial probability:** 55

**Evaluation of confidence:**

The initial probability of 55% seems reasonable, considering the balanced assessment of the reasons for and against a successful mission. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is relatively low, given the historical failure rates of lunar missions. This might suggest a more conservative approach, adjusting the probability downward.

**Final prediction:** *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**
Will Sudan experience a civil war before January 1, 2036, as defined by the Council of Foreign Relations Global Conflict Tracker, where the term "Civil War" appears in either the title of the conflict or the category assigned to the conflict? This prediction will be based on the ongoing political, economic, and social conditions in Sudan, including factors such as political instability, economic disparities, ethnic or religious tensions, and the struggle over resources or territory.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **Stability Efforts:** The Sudanese government has made efforts to stabilize the country, including the signing of the Juba Peace Agreement in 2020, which aimed to address the conflicts in the country's Darfur region. However, the success of these efforts is uncertain. (Strength: 40%)
2. **International Support:** The international community has provided significant support to Sudan, including economic aid and diplomatic engagement. This support could help maintain stability in the country. (Strength: 30%)
3. **Economic Growth:** Sudan has experienced economic growth in recent years, which could help reduce poverty and inequality, potential drivers of civil conflict. (Strength: 20%)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **Ongoing Tensions:** Sudan has a history of civil conflict, and tensions between different ethnic and religious groups remain high. The country's Darfur region has experienced ongoing violence, and other regions, such as the Nuba Mountains, have also seen conflict. (Strength: 80%)
2. **Economic Disparities:** Sudan has significant economic disparities, with many people living in poverty and lacking access to basic services. This could create an environment conducive to civil conflict. (Strength: 60%)
3. **Political Instability:** Sudan's political system is fragile, with a transitional government in place since the ousting of former President Omar al-Bashir in 2019. The country's politics are complex, with various factions vying for power. (Strength: 50%)

**Aggregated Considerations:**
Considering the reasons above, I believe that the likelihood of Sudan experiencing a civil war before 2036 is higher than the likelihood of stability. The ongoing tensions, economic disparities, and political instability in Sudan create a volatile environment that could lead to civil conflict. However, the stability efforts, international support, and economic growth could mitigate these risks to some extent.

**Initial Probability: 65**

**Evaluation of Confidence:**
My initial probability of 65% seems relatively high, but I believe it is justified given the ongoing tensions and instability in Sudan. However, I may be underestimating the impact of stability efforts and international support. I may also be overestimating the likelihood of economic growth reducing poverty and inequality.

**Final Prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Ohio Issue 1, a proposed constitutional amendment that would raise the voter approval threshold for future constitutional amendments to 60% from the current simple majority of 50%+1, eliminate the 10-day "cure" period for addressing invalid signatures, and require signatures from each of Ohio's 88 counties instead of half of them, pass in the August 8, 2023 election in Ohio?

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Historical trend of voters rejecting constitutional amendments**: Ohio voters have a history of rejecting proposed constitutional amendments, which could indicate a general skepticism towards altering the state's constitution. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Potential backlash from groups that support ballot initiatives**: Organizations and individuals who rely on ballot initiatives to bring about policy changes might be strongly opposed to the increased threshold, which could mobilize opposition and sway undecided voters. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Concerns about the impact on marginalized groups**: Some argue that the increased threshold could disproportionately affect marginalized communities, which may have limited resources and representation, making it harder for them to gather signatures and pass amendments. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Potential for voter fatigue**: Ohio voters may be fatigued from previous ballot issues and amendments, leading to a decreased likelihood of supporting another constitutional change. (Strength: 4/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Increased scrutiny of ballot initiatives**: By raising the threshold, Ohio Issue 1 could be seen as a measure to improve the quality and legitimacy of constitutional amendments, making it more likely to pass. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Support from conservative groups**: Some conservative organizations and individuals might support the measure, seeing it as a way to reduce the influence of liberal or progressive groups that have used ballot initiatives to pass policies they support. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **State lawmakers' support**: The Ohio General Assembly has endorsed the measure, which could indicate that there is a strong desire to implement the changes outlined in Issue 1. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Potential for increased civic engagement**: The debate surrounding Ohio Issue 1 could lead to increased civic engagement and discussion about the importance of constitutional amendments, which might ultimately lead to a higher turnout and a more informed electorate. (Strength: 5/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" outcome, I believe that the debate surrounding Ohio Issue 1 will be contentious, with both sides presenting strong arguments. However, the increased scrutiny of ballot initiatives and support from conservative groups and state lawmakers might give the measure an edge.

Initial probability: 55

Evaluation:
My initial probability of 55% seems relatively moderate, considering the mixed reasons for both outcomes. However, I might be underestimating the potential for voter fatigue and the historical trend of rejecting constitutional amendments. Additionally, the base rate of ballot initiatives passing is not particularly high, which could also affect the outcome.

Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Colson Whitehead's book "Crook Manifesto," published on July 18th, 2023, be listed in the top 15 books on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Hardcover Fiction for the list dated August 13th, 2023, considering the dated lists generally include sales data ending about 2 weeks prior and are available online about 1 week prior?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The book's sales might not be strong enough to reach the top 15, especially if it faces stiff competition from other popular fiction releases in July and August (Strength: 4).
- The New York Times Best Sellers list is highly competitive, and many factors influence a book's ranking, such as marketing, publicity, and reader engagement (Strength: 4).
- The book's release date is relatively late in the summer season, which might impact its visibility and sales (Strength: 3).
- The New York Times Best Sellers list can be unpredictable, and there might be other factors not considered that could affect the rankings (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Colson Whitehead is a well-established and acclaimed author with a strong track record of success, which could lead to strong initial sales and visibility (Strength: 5).
- The book is considered one of the most anticipated books of the summer, indicating a high level of interest and potential sales (Strength: 5).
- The book's publication date is not too far from the New York Times Best Sellers list release date, giving it a chance to impact the rankings (Strength: 4).
- Colson Whitehead's previous works have received critical acclaim and commercial success, suggesting that his readership and reputation will likely translate to strong sales for "Crook Manifesto" (Strength: 4).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering both the reasons for a "yes" and "no" answer, the factors pointing to a "yes" seem to be stronger, given Colson Whitehead's established reputation, the book's anticipated release, and the relatively short time frame between publication and the New York Times Best Sellers list release. However, the competitive nature of the list and the unpredictability of reader engagement and sales cannot be discounted.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be 65.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 65 seems reasonable, given the factors in favor of a "yes" and "no" answer. However, it might be slightly on the conservative side, given the strong reputation of Colson Whitehead and the anticipated release of the book. Considering the base rate of books being included in the New York Times Best Sellers list, which is relatively high, the initial probability might be adjusted upward.

7. Final prediction:
*0.72*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.72
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the U2 concert at The Sphere, a $2 billion, 18,000-seat venue at the Venetian Resort in Las Vegas, take place as scheduled on September 29, 2023, given that it is set to be the first concert at this venue and is a highly anticipated event?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- **Reason 1:** The Sphere is a new and complex venue, and there might be technical issues or logistical problems that could cause the concert to be postponed or canceled (Strength: 6/10).
- **Reason 2:** U2 or any of its band members might experience health issues or other personal problems that could force them to cancel the concert (Strength: 4/10).
- **Reason 3:** There might be unforeseen external circumstances such as natural disasters, global health crises, or other events that could affect the concert's feasibility (Strength: 5/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- **Reason 1:** The Sphere is a state-of-the-art venue with a large budget, which should ensure that it is well-prepared for the concert (Strength: 8/10).
- **Reason 2:** U2 is a professional band with a long history of successful concerts and tours, which suggests that they have the experience and resources to handle any potential issues that might arise (Strength: 7/10).
- **Reason 3:** The concert is scheduled for September 29, 2023, which is still a few months away, providing ample time for any potential issues to be addressed (Strength: 6/10).

4. Aggregated considerations: 
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, it seems that the likelihood of the concert taking place as scheduled is higher due to the venue's resources and the band's experience. However, there are still some potential risks and uncertainties that could affect the outcome.

5. Initial probability: 70

6. Thoughts on confidence and base rate:
My initial probability of 70 seems reasonable given the information provided. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the potential risks and uncertainties associated with a new venue and a large-scale event. The base rate of concerts being canceled or postponed is relatively low, but it's still a possibility.

7. Final prediction: *0.7*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the total number of hours of sunshine in Stockholm, Sweden, as recorded by SVT Data Journalism's Sun League, exceed 500 hours during the period from week 26 to 32 (inclusive) of 2023? Given the recent trend of hotter and sunnier summers in Sweden, which has been observed globally, we will consider various factors that might influence the sun hours in Stockholm during this period. The normal range of sun hours in recent history has been between 350-450 hours, and exceeding 500 hours has only occurred four times in the past 20 years. The question resolves based on the data available on or after August 13th, 2023, and will be ambiguous if SVT does not publish any data between August 14th and 17th.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Reason 1: Stockholm's normal sun hours range is between 350-450 hours, and exceeding 500 hours has been rare. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 2: The data from the past 20 years shows that exceeding 500 hours of sun has only happened four times. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 3: The question does not provide any information about the specific weather conditions or potential weather patterns that might lead to an exceptionally high number of sun hours. (Strength: 2)
- Reason 4: The question is based on a relatively short historical period, which may not be representative of the long-term trends or patterns. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Reason 1: The recent trend of hotter and sunnier summers in Sweden might continue, which could lead to an increase in sun hours. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 2: The question mentions that there's no real reason to think the hot and dry weather won't continue, which could contribute to higher sun hours. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 3: The data from the past 20 years might be skewed by cooler or cloudier summers, and this year could be an outlier. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 4: The fact that the question resolves based on data available on or after August 13th, 2023, means that we will have a full week of data from the period of interest, which could provide a more accurate picture. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the main factors influencing the outcome are the normal sun hours range, the rarity of exceeding 500 hours, and the recent trend of hotter and sunnier summers. While the normal range and rarity of exceeding 500 hours suggest a low likelihood, the recent trend and lack of specific weather patterns that would lead to a decrease in sun hours suggest a higher likelihood.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would rate the initial probability of exceeding 500 hours of sun in Stockholm during the specified period as 40.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems reasonable, considering the mixed signals from the reasons above. However, it's worth noting that the base rate of exceeding 500 hours of sun in the past 20 years is relatively low (4 times out of 20), which might suggest that the event is less likely than the initial probability suggests.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander, Vikram, successfully soft-land on the lunar surface near Mutus crater on August 23 or 24, 2023, following its launch on July 14, 2023, by India's space program (ISRO) using a GSLV Mark 3 rocket, thus making India the fourth country to achieve this feat after the Soviet Union, the US, and China? The mission will be considered successful if the lander touches the lunar surface in a controlled and gradual manner without sustaining irreparable damage to its systems, allowing it to perform some of its tasks and maintain communication with the Indian Space Research Organization.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
   a. Technical issues with the GSLV Mark 3 rocket or Vikram lander during the launch or transit phase (Strength: 6) - Although the rocket has been used before, there's always a risk of technical malfunctions.
   b. Software glitch similar to the one that occurred during Chandrayaan-2 (Strength: 8) - The fact that a similar mission had a software-related failure in the past increases the likelihood of a similar issue happening again.
   c. Unforeseen lunar surface conditions or environment (Strength: 4) - The lunar surface is a harsh environment, and unexpected conditions could affect the lander's systems.
   d. Communication loss or data transmission issues (Strength: 5) - Communication with the lander is crucial for successful navigation and control, and any issues could lead to a failed landing.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
   a. ISRO's experience and improvements from Chandrayaan-2 (Strength: 9) - The space agency has learned from its previous failure and made necessary improvements to the lander design and systems.
   b. Successful launch of the GSLV Mark 3 rocket (Strength: 8) - The rocket's performance during the launch phase indicates that the mission has a good chance of proceeding as planned.
   c. Careful planning and testing (Strength: 7) - ISRO has likely conducted extensive testing and simulations to mitigate potential risks and ensure a smooth landing.
   d. India's growing space capabilities and expertise (Strength: 8) - India has demonstrated its capabilities in space exploration and development, increasing the likelihood of a successful mission.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, it's clear that the likelihood of a successful landing is higher due to ISRO's experience, improvements from Chandrayaan-2, and the successful launch of the GSLV Mark 3 rocket. However, technical issues, software glitches, and unforeseen lunar conditions still pose risks.

5. Initial probability: 70

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 70 seems reasonable, but it might be overly confident. Considering the base rate of space missions failing, the initial probability should be adjusted downward. Additionally, the fact that this is a high-stakes mission with significant international attention might influence the outcome.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will there be a nationwide UPS strike in the United States by August 4, 2023, as indicated by credible reports, where the strike is underway as of 12pm ET on that date, considering the ongoing contract negotiations between UPS and the UPS Teamsters union, which are expected to expire on July 31, 2023, and the union's authorization for a strike if talks break down?

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 6/10):
1. **Negotiations might still occur before the deadline**: The article mentions that both the union and company officials have expressed a desire to finalize a deal before the strike deadline, which could indicate a willingness to negotiate and potentially reach an agreement. (Strength: 4/10)
2. **History of successful negotiations**: UPS and the Teamsters union have negotiated contracts in the past without a strike, which suggests that they might be able to reach an agreement this time as well. (Strength: 2/10)
3. **Potential economic consequences**: A strike could have significant economic repercussions, which might motivate both parties to find a compromise and avoid a strike. (Strength: 6/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 8/10):
1. **Negotiations have deadlocked**: The article mentions that negotiations have broken down, which increases the likelihood of a strike. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Union authorization for a strike**: The Teamsters union has authorized a strike if talks break down, which indicates a willingness to take action if an agreement is not reached. (Strength: 9/10)
3. **History of labor disputes**: UPS and the Teamsters union have had labor disputes in the past, including a 15-day strike in 1997, which suggests that they might be more likely to engage in a strike this time as well. (Strength: 7/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against a strike, it seems that the likelihood of a strike is higher due to the deadlocked negotiations and the union's authorization for a strike. However, the potential for last-minute negotiations and the desire to avoid economic consequences might still play a role.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of confidence:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, but it might be too low given the strong indication of a strike due to the deadlocked negotiations and union authorization. The potential for last-minute negotiations and the desire to avoid economic consequences might be overestimated.

Final prediction: *0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will New Zealand win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023? Given the information from past tournaments, including the teams that have won the cup, the host countries, and the number of participating teams, what are the chances of New Zealand emerging as the champion of the 2023 FIFA Women's Women's World Cup?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1 to 5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

* 4/5: New Zealand has never participated in a FIFA Women's World Cup final and has not had a strong performance in the tournament. They might not have the experience and skills to compete with top teams.
* 3/5: The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is being co-hosted by Australia and New Zealand, which might create a challenging environment for New Zealand to perform, as they might be under pressure to perform well in front of their home crowd.
* 2/5: New Zealand's women's national team has not been as successful as other teams in the tournament, with limited experience in the World Cup and a relatively low ranking.
* 1/5: New Zealand's women's national team might face stiff competition from other teams in the group stage, which could lead to an early elimination.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1 to 5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

* 2/5: New Zealand has a strong women's football league and has been investing in developing its women's football program, which could lead to improved performance in the tournament.
* 2/5: The co-hosting of the tournament might actually benefit New Zealand, as they could gain experience and exposure playing in front of a larger and more experienced crowd.
* 1/5: New Zealand has a passionate and dedicated fan base, which could provide a significant boost to the team's morale and performance.
* 1/5: The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup features 32 teams, and New Zealand's chances of winning the cup are slim, but not impossible.

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the most significant factor working against New Zealand is their lack of experience and success in the tournament. However, the co-hosting of the tournament and the investment in their women's football program could potentially work in their favor. Overall, it seems that the chances of New Zealand winning the cup are relatively low, but not impossible.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of New Zealand winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup to be around 5%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:

The calculated probability seems to be relatively low, which is consistent with the general assessment of New Zealand's chances. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is the probability of any team winning the World Cup. The base rate is typically low, as the World Cup is a highly competitive tournament with many teams participating. Considering this, the calculated probability might be slightly too low.

7. Final prediction:

*0.07*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.07
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the Norwegian women's national football team win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023?

Given the information provided, the question will resolve as "Yes" if Norway wins the tournament, and as "No" if any other team wins. The final match is scheduled to take place on August 20, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

- Reason 1: Norway's past performance in the tournament has been inconsistent. They have won the tournament once (in 1995) but have also had some disappointing results in other years. Strength: 6/10
- Reason 2: The 2023 tournament features a stronger field than in previous years, with 32 teams competing. This increased competition may make it harder for Norway to win. Strength: 7/10
- Reason 3: Norway has not had a strong performance in recent international tournaments, which may indicate a decline in their team's abilities. Strength: 5/10
- Reason 4: The host teams, Australia and New Zealand, may have an advantage in terms of familiarity with the local conditions and crowd support. Strength: 4/10
- Reason 5: The team's performance can be influenced by various factors such as injuries, player form, and team dynamics, which can be unpredictable. Strength: 8/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

- Reason 1: Norway has a strong team with experienced players who have performed well in previous international tournaments. Strength: 8/10
- Reason 2: The team has been preparing for this tournament for a long time and has a good chance of capitalizing on their opponents' weaknesses. Strength: 7/10
- Reason 3: Norway has a good coach who has a proven track record of success in international competitions. Strength: 6/10
- Reason 4: The team's past performance in the tournament has shown that they can compete with the best teams in the world. Strength: 7/10
- Reason 5: Norway has a strong home crowd support, which can give them an advantage in terms of motivation and energy. Strength: 4/10

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons provided, it seems that the answer might be no due to the increased competition, inconsistent past performance, and unpredictable factors such as injuries and player form. However, Norway has a strong team with experienced players and a good coach, which suggests that they have a good chance of winning.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Norway winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup to be around 22%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 22% seems to be on the lower side, considering the reasons why the answer might be yes. However, it's also not excessively confident, given the reasons why the answer might be no. The base rate of the event is not explicitly provided, but it's worth noting that the probability of winning a major international tournament like the FIFA Women's World Cup is typically low.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Philippines win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023? This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 9/10**: The Philippines did not qualify for the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup. Given the information provided, it's unlikely they will win the tournament without participating.
- **Strength: 8/10**: The Philippines has limited experience in international football competitions, which may hinder their chances of winning a major tournament like the FIFA Women's World Cup.
- **Strength: 6/10**: The Philippines has a relatively small football infrastructure and resources compared to other participating teams, which may affect their performance in the tournament.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 1/10**: There is no information suggesting that the Philippines has a strong team or recent success in football, making it highly unlikely they will win the tournament.
- **Strength: 0/10**: The Philippines did not participate in the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, making it impossible for them to win the tournament.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it's clear that the Philippines' chances of winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup are extremely low due to their lack of qualification, limited experience, and infrastructure.

5. Initial probability:
Given the information and considerations, I would rate the Philippines' chances of winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup as 0%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 0% might be excessively confident, as it's based on a limited set of information. However, considering the Philippines' lack of qualification and other factors, it's still a reasonable starting point.

7. Final prediction:
*0.00*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.0
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Switzerland win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to take place in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023, and is an international association football tournament among women's national teams held every 4 years since 2001?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated 1-5, 1 being the weakest and 5 being the strongest):
- Reason 1: Switzerland's past performance in the FIFA Women's World Cup is not impressive, with their best finish being a quarterfinal appearance in 2015. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 2: The team's squad composition and strength may not be as competitive as top-tier teams like the United States, Germany, or Sweden. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 3: Switzerland's recent form and performance in the UEFA Women's Championship and other international friendlies might not be as strong as other top contenders. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 4: The team may struggle to adapt to the Australian and New Zealand climate and playing conditions, which could affect their performance. (Strength: 2)
- Reason 5: The team's manager and coaching staff might not have the necessary experience to lead the team to a World Cup title. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated 1-5, 1 being the weakest and 5 being the strongest):
- Reason 1: Switzerland has a strong team with a good balance of experience and youth, which could give them an edge in the tournament. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 2: The team has been performing well in recent international friendlies and might be peaking at the right time. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 3: Switzerland has a good squad depth and a strong team spirit, which could help them overcome adversity and make a deep run in the tournament. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 4: The team's manager has a good track record of success in international tournaments. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 5: Switzerland has a relatively easy group stage draw, which could give them a good chance to progress to the knockout stage. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons provided, the strength of the reasons for a "yes" answer (4.6) is slightly higher than the strength of the reasons for a "no" answer (3.2). However, it's essential to consider that the FIFA Women's World Cup is a highly competitive tournament, and many factors can influence the outcome.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Switzerland winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup to be 40.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too optimistic. The strength of the reasons for a "no" answer is still significant, and Switzerland's past performance in the tournament is not impressive. Additionally, the base rate of the event is low, as Switzerland has not won a major international tournament in the past.

7. Final prediction:
*0.30*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.3
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Australia win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to take place in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023? The tournament will feature 32 teams competing for the championship, with the winner being determined through a single-elimination bracket. The question will resolve as the winner of the tournament, according to FIFA, and all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated. The information provided includes past results of the FIFA Women's World Cup since its inception in 1991, which may offer insights into team performance and trends.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- Australia's home advantage may not be as significant as expected, considering the tournament is co-hosted with New Zealand. (Strength: 2)
- The strength of the teams participating in the 2023 tournament, including Australia, may be evenly matched, making it difficult for any team to dominate. (Strength: 3)
- The 2023 tournament may see a strong performance from other teams, such as the United States or Germany, which have historically performed well in the tournament. (Strength: 4)
- The Australian women's national team may not have the same level of experience and depth as some of the other top teams in the tournament. (Strength: 2)
- Injuries or other factors may impact the team's performance during the tournament. (Strength: 1)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- Australia has been preparing for the tournament as co-hosts and may have an advantage in terms of familiarity with the venues and logistics. (Strength: 3)
- The Australian women's national team has shown improvement in recent years and may be a dark horse contender. (Strength: 2)
- The team's home crowd may provide a significant boost in energy and motivation. (Strength: 2)
- Australia has a strong domestic league and a well-structured national team program, which may give them an edge over other teams. (Strength: 4)
- The team's coach and players may have a good understanding of the opposition and be well-prepared for the tournament. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, it appears that the factors pointing towards a yes are slightly stronger, particularly the home advantage and the team's domestic league and national program. However, the strength of the opposition and the potential for injuries or other factors to impact the team's performance cannot be ignored.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Australia winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% may be considered slightly conservative, given the home advantage and the team's domestic league and national program. However, it is also reasonable to consider the strength of the opposition and the potential for unexpected factors to impact the team's performance. The base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of a team winning the World Cup) is difficult to estimate, but it is likely to be relatively low.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Republic of Ireland win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023?

The question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated. 

2. Reasons why the answer might be No (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Republic of Ireland's past performance in international women's football competitions has been inconsistent, which might affect their chances of winning the World Cup (Strength: 3).
- The Republic of Ireland is not among the top-ranked teams in the FIFA Women's World Rankings (Strength: 4).
- The team's squad and training camp preparation might not be as extensive as those of more established teams (Strength: 2).
- The pressure of competing in a major tournament like the World Cup can be intense, which might affect the team's performance (Strength: 3).
- The competition in the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is expected to be fierce, with many strong teams participating (Strength: 5).

3. Reasons why the answer might be Yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Republic of Ireland has shown improvement in their women's football team in recent years, with a growing pool of talented players (Strength: 3).
- The team has a relatively strong squad with a good balance of experience and youth (Strength: 4).
- The Republic of Ireland's coach has a good track record of leading the team to successful results (Strength: 4).
- The team's preparation and training camp have been well-planned, with a focus on building team cohesion and strategy (Strength: 4).
- Upsets can happen in football, and the Republic of Ireland might be able to cause an upset in the tournament (Strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both Yes and No, it seems that the Republic of Ireland's chances of winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup are relatively low, but not impossible. The team's inconsistent past performance, lower ranking, and competition from other strong teams are significant concerns. However, the team's improvement in recent years, strong squad, and good coaching might provide a glimmer of hope.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the Republic of Ireland's chances of winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup to be around 2%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 2% might be too low, considering that upsets can happen in football and the Republic of Ireland has shown improvement in recent years. However, the team's past performance and competition from other strong teams are significant concerns. I should also consider the base rate of the event, which is the general likelihood of a team winning the World Cup. This base rate is typically low, as only one team can win the tournament.

7. Final prediction:
*0.01*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.01
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Nigeria win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023, according to the FIFA Women's World Cup format, where the team that wins the most matches in the tournament is declared the winner?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, 5 being the strongest):
- Nigeria's women's national football team has not had significant international success in the past, which might indicate a lack of experience and skill at the top level. (Strength: 3)
- The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup features 32 teams, including top-ranked nations like the United States, Germany, and England, which could make it difficult for Nigeria to advance in the tournament. (Strength: 4)
- Nigeria's women's national team has not participated in the FIFA Women's World Cup in recent years, which might indicate a lack of investment and resources in the team. (Strength: 2)
- The team's performance in the 2023 tournament will depend on various factors, including team dynamics, coaching, and individual player performance, which can be unpredictable. (Strength: 5)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, 5 being the strongest):
- Nigeria has been improving its women's football development in recent years, which might lead to a stronger team performance in the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup. (Strength: 2)
- The team's underdog status could motivate them to perform well in the tournament. (Strength: 3)
- Nigeria has a large and passionate football fan base, which could provide the team with significant support and motivation. (Strength: 2)
- The team's coach and players might have a solid game plan and strategy to compete with top-ranked teams. (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the answer is more likely to be no, given Nigeria's lack of international success and recent participation in the FIFA Women's World Cup. However, the team's potential improvement and the underdog status could provide an opportunity for an upset.

5. Initial probability: 5

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 5 seems excessively low, given that it is a binary choice between yes and no. A more reasonable initial probability would be between 0 and 100. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of any team winning the FIFA Women's World Cup), it is relatively low, but not impossible. A more reasonable initial probability might be around 1-5%.

7. Final prediction: *0.02*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.02
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the Canadian women's national football team win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023? 

Background information: 
- The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years, first held in 2001.
- Past winners include the United States (4 times), Germany (2 times), Norway, Japan, and Sweden.
- The tournament features 32 teams this year.
- The Canadian women's national football team has been the host country and runner-up once (in 2003) in the past.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the strongest reason):

- Reason 1: Canada's past performance in the tournament: Although Canada has been a strong team, they have not won the World Cup in the past. This suggests they may not have the necessary experience and skills to win the tournament. (Strength: 6)
- Reason 2: Competition from top teams: The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup features 32 teams, including top-ranked teams like the United States, Germany, and Sweden. These teams have a strong track record in the tournament, which may give them an advantage over Canada. (Strength: 8)
- Reason 3: Home advantage: Although Canada is the host country, they may not have the same home-field advantage as they did in 2015 when they hosted the tournament. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 4: Team dynamics and injuries: Team dynamics and injuries can greatly affect a team's performance in the tournament. If Canada experiences injuries or team conflicts, it may impact their chances of winning. (Strength: 5)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the strongest reason):

- Reason 1: Canadian team's growth and improvement: The Canadian women's national football team has been improving over the years, and they have a strong squad with experienced players. (Strength: 7)
- Reason 2: Home advantage: Although the home-field advantage may not be as significant as in 2015, it can still provide a psychological boost to the team. (Strength: 6)
- Reason 3: Team cohesion and chemistry: A strong team dynamic can make a big difference in the tournament. If the Canadian team has good chemistry and cohesion, it may give them an edge over other teams. (Strength: 8)
- Reason 4: Coaching and strategy: A good coach and effective strategy can make a significant difference in the tournament. If the Canadian team has a strong coaching staff and a well-planned strategy, it may help them succeed. (Strength: 9)

4. Aggregated considerations:

- Strengths: Canada's growth and improvement, home advantage, team cohesion and chemistry, and good coaching and strategy.
- Weaknesses: Past performance, competition from top teams, and potential team dynamics and injuries.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Canada winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup to be around 22%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

The initial probability of 22% may be considered not confident enough, given the strengths of the Canadian team and their home advantage. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is the probability of any team winning the tournament. The base rate is around 1/32 (3.13%) since there are 32 teams participating. This means that the probability of Canada winning the tournament is slightly higher than the base rate, but still relatively low.

7. Final prediction:

*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Spain win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023, according to the FIFA tournament schedule?

Given the information provided, we can infer that the question will resolve as "Yes" if Spain emerges as the winner of the tournament, and as "No" for any other teams that are eliminated. The question's resolution criteria are based on the official outcome of the tournament as declared by FIFA.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

* Reason 1: Spain's performance in the tournament could be inconsistent, leading to an early exit. (Strength: 20%)
* Reason 2: Strong teams such as the United States, Germany, and Sweden might dominate the competition, making it difficult for Spain to progress. (Strength: 30%)
* Reason 3: Spain might struggle with injuries or player absences, affecting their overall performance. (Strength: 15%)
* Reason 4: The team might face a tough draw or group stage, making it challenging to advance to the later stages. (Strength: 25%)
* Reason 5: Spain might not have the same level of experience or team cohesion as other top contenders. (Strength: 10%)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

* Reason 1: Spain has a talented squad with skilled players who can make a significant impact in the tournament. (Strength: 40%)
* Reason 2: The team has been preparing well for the tournament, with a strong training program and strategic planning. (Strength: 35%)
* Reason 3: Spain has a good chance of drawing a favorable group stage and potentially facing weaker teams in the knockout stages. (Strength: 25%)
* Reason 4: The team's coach and management have experience in international competitions, which could be an advantage. (Strength: 20%)
* Reason 5: Spain has a strong team culture and unity, which can contribute to their performance on the field. (Strength: 10%)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the main factors influencing the outcome are Spain's performance, the strength of the competition, and the team's preparation. While there are valid reasons why Spain might not win, the reasons in favor of their victory are more substantial.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of Spain winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup as 55%.

6. Evaluation and refinement:
Upon further reflection, I consider the base rate of the event, which is the general success rate of teams in the FIFA Women's World Cup. Historically, the tournament has seen a mix of dominant performances and upsets. However, the top teams tend to perform well, and Spain's chances are relatively low compared to the likes of the United States, Germany, and Sweden. Considering this, I might adjust my initial probability downward.

7. Final prediction:
Given the refined considerations, I would estimate the probability of Spain winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup as *0.42*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Costa Rica win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, held in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023? This question will resolve as the winner of the tournament, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.

2. Reasons why the answer might be No (with strength ratings):

* Reason 1: Costa Rica is not a top-ranked team in women's football. They are ranked 29th in the FIFA Women's World Rankings as of July 2023. (Strength: 7/10)
* Reason 2: The team has not had significant success in international competitions, with their best finish being a quarterfinals appearance in the 2014 Copa América Femenina. (Strength: 6/10)
* Reason 3: Costa Rica's squad composition and experience might not be as strong as other top contenders in the tournament. (Strength: 5/10)
* Reason 4: The team's performance in the group stage will be crucial, and a tough group draw could hinder their chances of advancing to the knockout stage. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be Yes (with strength ratings):

* Reason 1: Costa Rica has been improving their women's football program in recent years, with a focus on developing young talent and investing in the team's infrastructure. (Strength: 6/10)
* Reason 2: The team has shown resilience and determination in previous international competitions, often punching above their weight. (Strength: 5/10)
* Reason 3: Costa Rica's squad has a mix of experienced players and young talent, which could provide a balanced and dynamic approach to the tournament. (Strength: 5/10)
* Reason 4: Upsets can happen in football, and Costa Rica's underdog status could work in their favor if they can capitalize on opportunities and catch other teams off guard. (Strength: 4/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the balance of evidence suggests that Costa Rica's chances of winning the tournament are low, but not impossible. Their relatively low ranking, lack of significant international success, and potential group stage challenges weigh against them. However, their improving program, resilience, and balanced squad composition provide some grounds for optimism.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate Costa Rica's chances of winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup at 5%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 5% might be too low, considering the potential for upsets in football and the underdog status of Costa Rica. However, it also reflects the team's relatively low ranking and lack of significant international success. The base rate of the event (winning the World Cup) is extremely low, and Costa Rica's chances are likely to be a small fraction of the total probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.05*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.05
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Zambia win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023? Given the information from past tournaments, what are the chances of Zambia emerging as the champion, considering the tournament's history, participating teams, and other factors that might influence the outcome?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 8/10):
   a. Zambia is not a top-ranked team in women's football and has not participated in the FIFA Women's World Cup before. (Strength: 6/10)
   b. The tournament is being held in Australia and New Zealand, which may provide a home advantage to the host teams and other teams from the region, potentially making it harder for Zambia to win. (Strength: 4/10)
   c. The team's performance in the group stage and knockout rounds would need to be exceptional to reach the final, which is a significant challenge for a team with limited experience at this level. (Strength: 8/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 2/10):
   a. There is no specific information or precedent that suggests Zambia has a disadvantage in terms of team strength or experience compared to other teams in the tournament. (Strength: 2/10)
   b. Upsets can occur in any tournament, and Zambia might be able to cause an upset if they perform well and capitalize on opportunities. (Strength: 1/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for a "no" answer, I have a strong basis for skepticism about Zambia's chances due to their limited experience and ranking. However, the lack of specific information about their team's abilities and the possibility of upsets mean that there is some room for a positive outcome.

5. Initial probability: 2

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
My initial probability seems too low, as I have not considered the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of any team winning the World Cup). The base rate is likely to be low, but this does not necessarily apply to Zambia specifically. I also have not considered the potential impact of external factors such as team dynamics, coaching, and player performance.

7. Final prediction: *0.02*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.02
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the team representing Japan win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023?

The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held every four years among women's national football teams. The 2023 edition will feature 32 teams competing in the tournament. The winner of the tournament will be determined by the team that emerges victorious in the final match. Given the information provided, the question will resolve as "Yes" if Japan wins the tournament and "No" if they do not.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- **Reason 1: Japan's past performance in the 2015 FIFA Women's World Cup.** Japan lost to the United States in the final with a score of 5-2. This indicates that Japan may struggle against strong opponents, which could affect their chances in the 2023 tournament. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 2: Strong competition from other teams.** The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup features 32 teams, including powerhouses like the United States, Germany, and Sweden. Japan may face tough competition from these teams, making it challenging for them to win the tournament. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 3: Injuries or team dynamics.** The team's performance can be affected by injuries or internal conflicts, which can impact their overall performance in the tournament. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- **Reason 1: Japan's past performance in the 2011 FIFA Women's World Cup.** Japan won the tournament in 2011, defeating the United States in the final with a score of 3-1 in a penalty shootout. This indicates that Japan has the capability to win the tournament. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 2: Japan's home advantage is not a factor.** Since the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is being held in Australia and New Zealand, Japan does not have a home advantage. However, this also means that they will face the same conditions as other teams, which could level the playing field. (Strength: 4/10)
- **Reason 3: Team improvement and experience.** Japan has likely gained experience and improved their skills since the last tournament, which could give them an edge in the 2023 competition. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons why the answer might be no (Reasons 1, 2, and 3) have a combined strength of 19/30. The reasons why the answer might be yes (Reasons 1, 2, and 3) have a combined strength of 19/30. This suggests that the chances of Japan winning the tournament are roughly equal to the chances of them not winning.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially predict a probability of 50% that Japan will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 50% seems reasonable, as it reflects the balanced considerations of the reasons for and against Japan winning the tournament. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is not explicitly provided. In general, the base rate of a team winning a major international tournament like the FIFA Women's World Cup is low, typically around 10-20%. This might suggest that the initial probability of 50% is excessively confident.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the base rate of the event, I would adjust the initial probability downward to reflect a more conservative estimate. Therefore, my final prediction is: *0.15*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will England win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023, according to the official FIFA tournament results? The question will resolve as the winner of the tournament, and all other teams will be considered as losing.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

* Reason 1: England's recent performance in international competitions, including the 2019 FIFA Women's World Cup where they lost to Sweden in the third-place match, indicates that they may not be a top contender for the title. (Strength: 60)
* Reason 2: England has not had a strong squad in recent years, with some key players leaving the team or facing injuries. This could impact their overall performance in the tournament. (Strength: 70)
* Reason 3: England will face tough competition from other top teams, including the United States, Germany, and France, which could make it difficult for them to progress in the tournament. (Strength: 80)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

* Reason 1: England has been investing in women's football and has been working to improve their squad, which could lead to better performance in the tournament. (Strength: 40)
* Reason 2: England has a strong team spirit and has shown resilience in previous competitions, which could help them overcome challenges and achieve a good result in the tournament. (Strength: 50)
* Reason 3: England has a good coach and a solid team strategy, which could help them make a deep run in the tournament. (Strength: 60)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for and against, I would rate the likelihood of England winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup as follows:
- Strength of reasons for no: 190 (60 + 70 + 80)
- Strength of reasons for yes: 150 (40 + 50 + 60)
- Net strength of reasons for no: 40 (190 - 150)

5. Initial probability:

Based on the net strength of reasons for no, I would initially predict a 28% chance of England winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

The initial probability of 28% may be considered not confident enough, given the relatively low strength of reasons for yes. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is that only one team can win the tournament. The base rate is approximately 1 in 32 teams (32 teams participating in the tournament), which is around 3.1%. This suggests that the probability should be even lower.

7. Final prediction:

*0.023*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.023
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**
Will the team representing Haiti win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023?

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **Lack of recent performance in international competitions**: Haiti has not participated in the FIFA Women's World Cup since 2019, and their recent performance in international competitions has not been impressive. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Competition from strong teams**: The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup features 32 teams, including top-ranked countries like the United States, Germany, and Sweden, which have a strong history of success in the tournament. (Strength: 8/10)
3. **Limited resources and infrastructure**: Haiti's football infrastructure and resources are limited compared to other participating countries, which may hinder their ability to compete at a high level. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Tournament format**: The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup features a group stage followed by a knockout stage, which means that Haiti will need to perform well in the group stage and then win multiple matches in the knockout stage to reach the final. This is a challenging task, especially for a team with limited experience and resources. (Strength: 9/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **Upset potential**: In sports, upsets can happen, and a team with a strong team spirit and determination can sometimes cause an upset against a stronger opponent. (Strength: 4/10)
2. **Haiti's recent progress**: Although Haiti has not participated in the FIFA Women's World Cup since 2019, they may have made significant progress in their training and preparation, which could lead to a better performance in the tournament. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Group stage performance**: Haiti will play in the group stage, and if they can perform well in this stage, they may be able to advance to the knockout stage, where they can face other teams and potentially cause an upset. (Strength: 6/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**
Considering the reasons above, I think that Haiti's chances of winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup are low due to their lack of recent performance, limited resources, and strong competition from other teams. However, there is always a possibility of an upset, and Haiti's recent progress and group stage performance could lead to a better outcome.

**Initial Probability:** 5

**Evaluation:**
My initial probability of 5 is likely too low, as it is not a probability between 0 and 100. I should re-evaluate the strength of each reason and consider the base rate of the event. The base rate of Haiti winning the FIFA Women's World Cup is extremely low, as they have not participated in the tournament since 2019 and have limited resources.

**Final Prediction:** *0.01*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.01
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**
Will Denmark win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023?

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **Denmark's Group Stage Performance**: Denmark might not perform well in the group stage, which could lead to an early exit from the tournament. (Strength: 20/100)
2. **Competition from Strong Teams**: The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup features 32 teams, including top contenders like the United States, Germany, and Sweden. Denmark might struggle to compete against these strong teams. (Strength: 40/100)
3. **Lack of Recent Success**: Denmark has not had a significant impact in recent international women's football tournaments, which might indicate a lack of experience and preparation. (Strength: 30/100)
4. **Injury Concerns**: Denmark might suffer injuries to key players, which could significantly impact their chances of winning the tournament. (Strength: 20/100)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **Recent Form**: Denmark has shown improvement in recent years, including a strong performance in the 2022 UEFA Women's Euro. (Strength: 50/100)
2. **Tactical Flexibility**: Denmark's coach might have a solid tactical plan to counter the strong teams in the tournament. (Strength: 30/100)
3. **Player Talent**: Denmark has talented players, including [insert notable players' names], who could make a significant impact in the tournament. (Strength: 40/100)
4. **Upset Potential**: Denmark might be an underrated team, and an upset victory could be possible against a stronger opponent. (Strength: 20/100)

**Aggregated Considerations:**
Considering the reasons above, I would rate the likelihood of Denmark winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup as follows:

* Strengths: 20% (Recent form, tactical flexibility, player talent, and upset potential)
* Weaknesses: 80% (Group stage performance, competition from strong teams, lack of recent success, and injury concerns)

**Initial Probability:** 20

**Reevaluation:**
Upon reevaluation, I consider the base rate of Denmark winning the tournament (which is extremely low, as only one team can win) and the fact that the question is asked before the tournament starts. This might make my initial probability too high. I also consider that Denmark's strengths are not as significant as the weaknesses. Therefore, I might be overconfident in my initial probability.

**Final Prediction:** *0.05*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.05
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023, be China? The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is the 9th edition of the tournament, featuring 32 teams competing for the championship. The winner will be determined through a knockout stage, with the final match taking place on August 20, 2023. The information provided includes the past results of the tournament since its inception in 1991, with the United States being the most successful team, having won the title four times.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- China has not won the FIFA Women's World Cup since its inception in 1991, and its best finish was runner-up in 1999 (Strength: 4).
- China's performance in recent international competitions has been inconsistent, which may indicate a lack of preparation or team cohesion (Strength: 3).
- The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup features a strong field of teams, including reigning champions the United States, who have a proven track record of success (Strength: 5).
- China's squad may not have the depth or experience to compete with the top teams in the tournament (Strength: 4).
- The home advantage of the host teams, Australia and New Zealand, may give them an edge in the competition (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- China has a rich football culture and a strong women's football league, which could provide a solid foundation for the national team (Strength: 4).
- China has invested heavily in its women's football program, with a focus on developing young talent and improving infrastructure (Strength: 5).
- China's squad features experienced players who have performed well in international competitions, such as Wang Shanshan and Wang Yanwen (Strength: 4).
- The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup format allows for a more balanced competition, with the introduction of a round-robin group stage, which could give China a chance to gain momentum and confidence (Strength: 3).
- China has a strong team dynamic and a good coach, which could help the team perform well under pressure (Strength: 4).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that China faces significant challenges in winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup. However, the team's potential and the format of the tournament suggest that it is not impossible for China to make a deep run. The strength of the competition, China's inconsistent performance, and the home advantage of the host teams are the main factors that weigh against China's chances.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of China winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup to be around 10%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 10% seems relatively low, considering that China has a strong team and a favorable format. However, the strength of the competition and China's inconsistent performance in recent years suggest that the team faces significant challenges. The base rate of China winning the tournament is low, given its past performance, which may also influence the initial probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.12*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.12
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**
Will the United States win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023? The question will resolve as "Yes" if the United States team wins the tournament, and as "No" for all other teams.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **Team Strength and Performance**: The US team has faced stiff competition in the past, and their performance might not be as strong as expected. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Injuries and Player Availability**: The US team might suffer from injuries or player unavailability, which could impact their chances of winning. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Group Stage Performance**: The US team might not perform well in the group stage, which could lead to an early exit from the tournament. (Strength: 4/10)
4. **Competition from Other Teams**: The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup features a strong field of teams, including previous winners and strong contenders, which could make it difficult for the US team to emerge victorious. (Strength: 8/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **US Team's Past Performance**: The US team has a strong history of success in the FIFA Women's World Cup, with four titles and a consistent top-four finish in the past seven tournaments. (Strength: 9/10)
2. **Team Experience and Depth**: The US team has a deep and experienced squad, with many players who have competed at the highest level. (Strength: 8/10)
3. **Coaching and Tactics**: The US team has a experienced coach and a well-developed tactical approach, which could give them an edge over their opponents. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Home Advantage**: Although the tournament is being held in Australia and New Zealand, the US team has a strong following and support from the American expat community, which could provide a psychological advantage. (Strength: 5/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**
Considering the reasons above, I would assign a weightage to each reason:

* Reasons for "No": 24/100 (2.4% of total weightage)
* Reasons for "Yes": 76/100 (7.6% of total weightage)

**Initial Probability:**
Based on the aggregated considerations, my initial probability of the US team winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is 76%.

**Evaluation and Final Prediction:**
My initial probability might be considered excessively confident, given the complexity of the tournament and the many factors that could influence the outcome. I should consider the base rate of the event, which is that the US team has won the tournament four times in nine attempts, a success rate of approximately 44.4%. This suggests that the probability of the US team winning is not as high as my initial estimate.

Taking this into account, I would revise my final prediction to:

*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Vietnam win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023, according to the FIFA Women's World Cup results from past tournaments, which have been held every 4 years since 1991, with the United States being the most successful team in the competition?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is a weak reason and 5 is a strong reason):
- Vietnam is not a top-ranked team in the FIFA Women's World Cup (Strength: 3). Vietnam is not among the top 10 teams in the FIFA Women's World Rankings, which might indicate that they have a lower chance of winning the tournament.
- Vietnam has limited experience in major international competitions (Strength: 3). Vietnam has not participated in the FIFA Women's World Cup before, and their performance in other international tournaments has been inconsistent.
- The competition in the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is extremely strong, with 32 teams participating, including top-ranked teams from Europe, North America, and Asia (Strength: 5). This increased competition might make it difficult for Vietnam to win the tournament.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is a weak reason and 5 is a strong reason):
- Vietnam has been improving their performance in recent years, with a notable win in the 2022 Southeast Asian Games (Strength: 2). This indicates that Vietnam has the potential to perform well in the tournament.
- Vietnam has a young and talented team with a good balance of experience and youth (Strength: 3). This balance could be an advantage in a tournament where teams need to balance experience and energy.
- Vietnam has been preparing well for the tournament, with a solid training program and a strong team spirit (Strength: 4). This preparation could give Vietnam an edge over other teams in the tournament.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I would rate the likelihood of Vietnam winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup as low to moderate. While Vietnam has shown improvement in recent years and has a talented team, the competition in the tournament is extremely strong, and Vietnam's lack of experience in major international competitions is a significant concern.

5. Initial probability:
Based on my aggregated considerations, I would initially predict that Vietnam will not win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, with a probability of 5%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
My initial probability of 5% might be too low, considering that Vietnam has shown improvement in recent years and has a talented team. However, the competition in the tournament is extremely strong, and Vietnam's lack of experience in major international competitions is a significant concern. I will revisit this probability in my final prediction.

7. Final prediction:
*0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Netherlands win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023, according to the FIFA tournament results from past years? The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held every 4 years among women's national football teams, with the first tournament held in 2001. The 2023 tournament will feature 32 teams competing for the championship.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- The Netherlands has not won the FIFA Women's World Cup in the past, and their performance might not be strong enough to win this year's tournament. (Strength: 4/10)
- The Netherlands might face tough competition from other top teams, such as the United States, who have won the tournament four times. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Netherlands' performance in the tournament could be affected by the change in venue from a single host country to co-hosts Australia and New Zealand. (Strength: 3/10)
- The Netherlands might struggle with injuries or player unavailability, which could impact their chances of winning. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- The Netherlands has a strong women's national football team with experienced players, which could give them an edge in the tournament. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Netherlands has shown improvement in their performance in recent years, and they might be able to capitalize on this momentum to win the tournament. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Netherlands might be able to take advantage of the co-hosting format, which could provide them with a more favorable draw or home-field advantage. (Strength: 4/10)
- The Netherlands has a good team chemistry and a strong coach, which could help them perform well in the tournament. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both yes and no, I would weigh the strength of each reason and aggregate them. The reasons for a no answer have a total strength of 24/10 (4 + 6 + 3 + 5), while the reasons for a yes answer have a total strength of 21/10 (7 + 6 + 4 + 5). However, I would adjust the weights of the reasons based on their relevance and the context of the tournament. I would give more weight to the Netherlands' recent improvement and strong team chemistry, as well as their experience in playing in a co-hosted tournament.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially predict that the Netherlands will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup with a probability of 42%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
My initial probability of 42% seems relatively moderate, considering the strengths of the reasons for both yes and no. However, I did not consider the base rate of the Netherlands winning the tournament in the past, which is 0/9. This suggests that the Netherlands has a relatively low chance of winning the tournament based on past performance. I should consider this base rate when refining my prediction.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Portugal win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023? The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held among women's national football teams every 4 years. The tournament was first held in 2001. The question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Portugal's FIFA Women's World Cup performance history.** Portugal has never participated in the FIFA Women's World Cup or has not performed well in the tournament. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 2: Competition from top-ranked teams.** The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup features top-ranked teams such as the United States, Germany, and Sweden, which are likely to be strong contenders for the championship. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 3: Portugal's team dynamics and preparation.** Portugal's team dynamics, coaching, and preparation might not be as strong as those of the top-ranked teams, which could affect their performance in the tournament. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 4: Upsets are possible in any tournament.** Upsets can occur in any tournament, and Portugal might face an unexpected loss in the early stages of the competition. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Portugal's recent performance in international competitions.** Portugal has shown improvement in recent international competitions, which might translate to a strong performance in the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup. (Strength: 3/10)
- **Reason 2: Portugal's team chemistry and unity.** A strong team chemistry and unity can be a significant factor in a team's performance, and Portugal might have a well-coordinated team. (Strength: 4/10)
- **Reason 3: Portugal's preparation and training.** Portugal's team might have invested significant time and effort into preparation and training, which could lead to a strong performance in the tournament. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 4: Upsets are possible in any tournament.** Portugal might face an unexpected win in the early stages of the competition, which could lead to a deeper run in the tournament. (Strength: 4/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the provided information and the reasons listed above, I will consider the strength of each reason and aggregate them to form a prediction. The reasons against Portugal winning the tournament (Reasons 1-4) have a combined strength of 23/10, while the reasons in favor of Portugal winning the tournament (Reasons 1-4) have a combined strength of 16/10. This suggests that there are more factors working against Portugal's win.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Portugal winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup to be 20.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability of 20 seems to be on the lower side, considering that upsets can occur in any tournament. However, the reasons against Portugal winning the tournament seem more substantial, given their lack of experience and the strong competition. The base rate of Portugal winning the FIFA Women's World Cup is extremely low, given the tournament's history and the teams participating.

7. Final prediction:
*0.20*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.2
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will France win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to take place in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023? This question will resolve as the winner of the tournament according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- France's recent performance has been inconsistent, with a mixed record in the past few international tournaments (Strength: 3).
- The team's defense has been vulnerable to counter-attacks, which could be exploited by strong opponents (Strength: 4).
- France has a relatively young squad, which may lack experience in high-pressure situations (Strength: 3).
- The team's key players may be injured or fatigued due to the demanding schedule and travel (Strength: 2).
- The competition in the tournament is extremely strong, with many top-ranked teams participating (Strength: 5).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- France has a strong squad with many talented players, including experienced veterans (Strength: 5).
- The team has been working on improving their defensive solidity and counter-attacking capabilities (Strength: 4).
- France has a good balance between youth and experience, which could be an advantage in the tournament (Strength: 4).
- The team has a strong team culture and cohesion, which can be a significant factor in high-pressure situations (Strength: 4).
- France has a good coach with a proven track record of success in international tournaments (Strength: 5).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Taking into account the reasons for both a yes and no answer, I consider the strengths of each argument. While France's inconsistent performance and vulnerable defense are concerns, the team's strong squad, improved defensive solidity, and good balance between youth and experience are significant advantages. The team's strong team culture and good coach also contribute to their chances of success. However, the extremely strong competition and potential injuries or fatigue are significant risks.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of France winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup as 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 60% may be too high, considering the extremely strong competition and the risks associated with France's performance and injuries. I may have overestimated the team's chances due to their strong squad and improved defensive solidity.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Jamaica national women's football team win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023? This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated. The current date is July 17, 2023, and the question will close on August 20, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Jamaica is a relatively weak team in international football, with limited experience in major tournaments (Strength: 4).
- Jamaica has not qualified for the knockout stages in previous World Cups (Strength: 4).
- Jamaica's opponents in the group stage are likely to be strong teams, which could hinder their chances of advancing (Strength: 3).
- The team's lack of resources and funding might affect their preparation and performance (Strength: 2).
- Jamaica has never won a major international football tournament (Strength: 5).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Jamaica has shown improvement in their women's national team in recent years (Strength: 3).
- The team has a relatively young and talented squad (Strength: 4).
- Jamaica has a strong team spirit and determination, which could help them perform well in the tournament (Strength: 3).
- The team's coach has a good track record of leading the team to success in smaller tournaments (Strength: 2).
- Jamaica has a relatively easy group stage draw, which could help them advance to the knockout stages (Strength: 4).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the main factors working against Jamaica are their relatively weak team status, lack of experience in major tournaments, and the strength of their opponents. However, the team's improvement in recent years, young and talented squad, and relatively easy group stage draw could potentially help them advance. Overall, the balance of reasons suggests that Jamaica's chances of winning the tournament are low, but not impossible.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate Jamaica's chances of winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup at 5%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 5% seems to be quite low, considering that it's a relatively high-stakes tournament with many variables at play. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is extremely low, given the number of teams participating and the difficulty of winning the tournament. Additionally, there is always an element of unpredictability in sports, which could lead to an upset. Therefore, the initial probability might be on the lower end, but it's not excessively confident.

7. Final prediction:
*0.05*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.05
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Brazil win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to take place in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023? This question will resolve as yes if Brazil emerges as the champion of the tournament, and as no if any other team wins the cup.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

* Reason 1: Brazil's performance in the past FIFA Women's World Cups has been inconsistent. They have only reached the final once, in 1999, and have not won the tournament. (Strength: 6/10)
* Reason 2: The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup features a highly competitive field of 32 teams, including top-ranked teams like the United States, Germany, and Sweden. Brazil may struggle to compete against these strong opponents. (Strength: 7/10)
* Reason 3: Brazil has faced challenges in their recent women's football development, including a lack of investment and resources compared to other top teams. This could impact their chances of success in the tournament. (Strength: 5/10)
* Reason 4: The tournament is being held in Australia and New Zealand, which may give some teams a home-field advantage. Brazil may not be as familiar with the conditions and venues as the host teams or other teams from the region. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

* Reason 1: Brazil has a talented squad with experienced players, including some who have played in previous World Cups. They have a good balance of skill, speed, and determination. (Strength: 8/10)
* Reason 2: Brazil has been investing in their women's football program in recent years, which has led to improvements in their performance and competitiveness. (Strength: 7/10)
* Reason 3: The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup format and schedule may favor Brazil's style of play, which emphasizes speed and attacking football. (Strength: 6/10)
* Reason 4: Brazil has a strong team culture and a passionate fan base, which can provide a significant psychological advantage in high-pressure situations. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against Brazil winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, I would rate the overall strength of the case for Brazil winning as 6.4/10. While there are some valid reasons to doubt their chances, there are also some positive factors that suggest they could succeed.

5. Initial probability:
Based on my aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Brazil winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup as 30%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
My initial probability of 30% may be on the lower side, considering the strengths of Brazil's squad and their recent improvements in women's football. However, the tournament is highly competitive, and many factors can influence the outcome. I may need to adjust my probability based on further information and developments in the tournament.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

What is the probability that the Panama women's national football team will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023?

This question requires considering the team's past performance, current team strength, and other factors that might influence their chances of winning the tournament.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- Panama is a relatively new team in the FIFA Women's World Cup, with no previous experience in the tournament (Strength: 6).
- Panama has not qualified for the knockout stage in any of the previous Women's World Cups (Strength: 8).
- The team's strength and depth might not be comparable to top teams in the world, such as the United States, Germany, or the Netherlands (Strength: 9).
- Panama might struggle against more experienced and skilled teams in the group stage or knockout rounds (Strength: 7).
- The team's preparation, coaching, and resources might not be on par with those of the top teams (Strength: 5).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- Panama has shown improvement in their women's football program, with a growing youth development system (Strength: 4).
- The team has some experienced players who have played in the CONCACAF region and might be able to hold their own against top teams (Strength: 3).
- Upsets can happen in football, and a well-prepared and motivated Panama team might cause an upset or two in the tournament (Strength: 2).
- The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup has a larger number of teams than previous tournaments, which might increase the chances of an underdog team like Panama making a deeper run (Strength: 1).

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, the strength of the reasons against Panama winning the tournament seem to outweigh the reasons in favor. Panama's lack of experience, limited resources, and lower team strength compared to top teams make it a long shot to win the tournament. However, the possibility of upsets and the growing women's football program in Panama cannot be entirely ruled out.

5. Initial probability (prediction):

Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of Panama winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup at 1%.

6. Evaluation and final thoughts:

The initial probability seems too low, considering the base rate of upsets in football tournaments. A more realistic estimate might be around 0.1% to 0.5%. However, this is still a very low probability, given the significant gap between Panama and top teams in the world.

7. Final prediction:

*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Sweden win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to take place in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023, according to FIFA? This question will resolve as yes if Sweden emerges as the champion of the tournament, and as no if they are eliminated from the competition.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- Reason 1: Sweden has not won the FIFA Women's World Cup since 2003, and their performance has been inconsistent in recent tournaments. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: The 2023 tournament features 32 teams, which is a significant increase from previous years, increasing the competition and making it more challenging for Sweden to emerge as champions. (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 3: Sweden has faced strong opponents in the past, including the United States, Germany, and Norway, which have consistently performed well in the tournament. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 4: The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup will be held in Australia and New Zealand, which might be an unfamiliar environment for the Swedish team, potentially affecting their performance. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- Reason 1: Sweden has a strong women's national team with a good track record in international competitions. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: The Swedish team has been preparing for the tournament and has a good chance of performing well, considering their past performances. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is a new tournament, and it's difficult to predict the performance of teams with certainty. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 4: Sweden has a good balance of experience and youth in their team, which could be an advantage in the tournament. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the strength of each reason, and the information provided, I will weigh the pros and cons. The reasons why the answer might be no (Reasons 1-4) have a total strength of 22/40, while the reasons why the answer might be yes (Reasons 1-4) have a total strength of 26/40. This suggests that the answer might be yes, but with some uncertainty.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be 55%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 55% seems reasonable, considering the uncertainty surrounding the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup. However, it might be too confident, given the high level of competition and the unpredictability of the tournament. The base rate of the event is also low, as Sweden has not won the tournament in over 20 years. Therefore, it's essential to consider the low base rate and the high level of uncertainty when making the final prediction.

7. Final prediction:
*0.4*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question**

Will South Africa win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023, according to the official FIFA tournament results? The question will resolve as "Yes" if South Africa is the winning team, and as "No" if they are eliminated from the tournament.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No (Strength: 1-5, 5 being the strongest)**

1. **Lack of Experience**: South Africa has not had significant success in international women's football competitions, which might indicate a lack of experience and preparedness for the World Cup. (Strength: 3)
2. **Competition from Strong Teams**: The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup features 32 teams, including top-ranked nations like the United States, Germany, and Sweden, which are likely to be strong contenders for the title. (Strength: 4)
3. **Group Stage Performance**: South Africa will need to navigate a challenging group stage, and a poor performance in this stage could eliminate them from the tournament. (Strength: 2)
4. **Injuries and Team Dynamics**: Injuries to key players or internal team conflicts could negatively impact South Africa's performance and chances of winning the tournament. (Strength: 2)
5. **Upsets and Unpredictability**: Upsets can occur in any tournament, and a surprise loss to a lower-ranked team could knock South Africa out of contention. (Strength: 3)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes (Strength: 1-5, 5 being the strongest)**

1. **Potential Upset Victories**: South Africa might be able to pull off an upset victory against a top-ranked team, which could propel them to the later stages of the tournament. (Strength: 3)
2. **Team Improvements**: South Africa has been investing in women's football development, and they might have made significant improvements since the last tournament. (Strength: 4)
3. **Strong Team Chemistry**: A well-coached and cohesive team with good team chemistry could perform better than expected and make a deep run in the tournament. (Strength: 4)
4. **Home Advantage**: Although the tournament is held in Australia and New Zealand, South Africa's participation in the tournament could be boosted by the home crowd and team morale. (Strength: 2)
5. **Dark Horse Potential**: South Africa might be considered a dark horse in the tournament, and their underdog status could motivate them to perform better than expected. (Strength: 3)

**Aggregated Considerations**

Considering the reasons above, I would rate the likelihood of South Africa winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup as relatively low. While they have some potential advantages, such as team improvements and potential upset victories, the strong competition from top-ranked teams and the challenges of the group stage and knockout rounds make it a difficult task for South Africa to win the tournament.

**Initial Probability**

Based on the considerations above, I would estimate the initial probability of South Africa winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup as 5%.

**Evaluation of Confidence**

My initial probability of 5% might be considered too low, as it does not take into account the base rate of the event. The base rate of a team winning the World Cup is relatively low, but it's not zero. A more conservative estimate might be to consider the probability of South Africa making it to the knockout stages, which could be around 10-20%. This would make their chances of winning the tournament even lower, but still not zero.

**Final Prediction**

*0.02*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.02
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Italian women's national football team win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023?

This question will resolve as the winner of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, according to FIFA. The team winning the cup will resolve as Yes, all other teams will resolve as No as they are eliminated. The resolution will occur on or before August 20, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):
- Italy has not performed well in the FIFA Women's World Cup in the past (strength: 3). They have not won a single title and have only reached the quarterfinals once.
- Italy's women's national team has a relatively young squad and lacks experience in major international tournaments (strength: 4).
- The competition in the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is expected to be fierce, with strong teams like the United States, Germany, and Sweden participating (strength: 5).
- Italy's recent performance in the UEFA Women's Euro has been inconsistent (strength: 2).
- The team's preparation and training before the tournament might not be optimal (strength: 1).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):
- Italy has been improving their women's national team in recent years, with a more focused approach to development and investment (strength: 4).
- The team has a talented young generation of players who have shown promise in international friendlies and smaller tournaments (strength: 4).
- Italy has a relatively weak group in the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which could give them an opportunity to advance to the knockout stage (strength: 3).
- The team's coach has a good track record of preparing the team for major tournaments (strength: 3).
- Italy has a strong domestic league for women's football, which provides a good foundation for the national team (strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both yes and no, I would say that the strength of the reasons against Italy winning the tournament (reasons 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5) outweigh the strength of the reasons for Italy winning the tournament (reasons 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5). However, the reasons for Italy winning the tournament are not negligible, and the team's improvement in recent years is a positive factor.

5. Initial probability:
Based on my aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Italy winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup as 15%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
My initial probability might be too low, as it doesn't take into account the fact that Italy has a relatively weak group in the tournament and has been improving their women's national team in recent years. Additionally, the base rate of the event is not provided, but we can assume that the probability of any team winning the tournament is relatively low (less than 10%).

7. Final prediction:
*0.20*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.2
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Argentina win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023? The winner of the tournament will be determined by the final match, and Argentina is one of the participating teams. The question will resolve as Yes if Argentina emerges victorious, and No if they are eliminated from the competition.

2. Reasons why the answer might be No (Strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- Argentina has not had significant success in the FIFA Women's World Cup, and their women's national team has not been as prominent as other top contenders like the United States, Germany, or the Netherlands. (Strength: 6)
- Argentina might face strong competition from top-ranked teams, potentially limiting their chances of advancing in the tournament. (Strength: 7)
- The team's performance in previous international competitions might not be enough to guarantee a strong showing in the World Cup. (Strength: 5)
- The team's preparation, training, and strategy might not be optimized, which could impact their chances of winning. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be Yes (Strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- Argentina has been improving their women's national team, investing in infrastructure and resources to support their growth. (Strength: 8)
- The team has shown potential in recent international competitions, demonstrating they can compete with top teams. (Strength: 7)
- Argentina has a strong football culture and a large pool of talented players, which could give them an advantage in the tournament. (Strength: 9)
- The team's experience playing in international competitions could help them adapt to the World Cup format and opponents. (Strength: 6)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Argentina's potential strengths, such as their growing investment in their women's national team and the country's football culture, are countered by their relatively low profile in the FIFA Women's World Cup and potential competition from top-ranked teams. Considering these factors, it seems that Argentina's chances of winning the tournament are not extremely high but not entirely impossible either.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I would estimate Argentina's chances of winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup at around 10%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively low, considering the factors that could contribute to Argentina's success. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of any team winning the World Cup). Given the large number of participating teams (32) and the unpredictable nature of football, the base rate of a team winning the World Cup is relatively low. This might suggest that my initial probability is not excessively confident.

7. Final prediction:
*0.12*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.12
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the team representing Germany win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Germany's recent performance in the 2019 FIFA Women's World Cup was not impressive, losing to Sweden in the round of 16. (Strength: 2)
- The team's performance in the 2022 UEFA Women's Euro might not be indicative of their current form, as the tournament was held in July 2022. (Strength: 1)
- Germany has a tough group stage with teams like Spain, Colombia, and Morocco, which might affect their chances. (Strength: 3)
- The team's squad might be affected by injuries or player unavailability. (Strength: 1)
- The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is being held in a new environment, which might affect the team's performance. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Germany has a strong squad with experienced players, including Alexandra Popp, Lena Oberdorf, and Svenja Huth. (Strength: 4)
- The team has a good track record in the FIFA Women's World Cup, having won the tournament in 2003 and 2007. (Strength: 5)
- Germany has been preparing well for the tournament, with a strong performance in the 2022 UEFA Women's Euro. (Strength: 4)
- The team's coach, Martina Voss-Tecklenburg, has experience in leading the team to success. (Strength: 3)
- Germany has a good balance of youth and experience in their squad. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that Germany has a good chance of winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup. However, there are also some potential drawbacks that might affect their performance. The strength of the reasons for a "yes" answer seems to outweigh the strength of the reasons for a "no" answer.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems to be a reasonable estimate based on the aggregated considerations. However, it might be considered not confident enough, given the strength of Germany's squad and their good track record in the tournament. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of any team winning the tournament) is not explicitly considered in the calculation.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Moroccan national women's football team win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand between July 20 and August 20, 2023? 

Given the information provided, it is essential to note that Morocco has not participated in the FIFA Women's World Cup in the past, and their performance in international women's football competitions is not well-documented. This lack of information makes it challenging to assess their chances of winning the tournament.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 9/10):
- **Lack of experience and reputation**: Morocco has not participated in the FIFA Women's World Cup before, and their women's national team has limited international experience compared to top-ranked teams like the United States, Germany, and Sweden.
- **Competition from established teams**: The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup features a strong lineup of teams, including several past champions and top-ranked teams in the world. Morocco will face stiff competition from these teams, making it challenging to advance to the final stages.
- **Limited resources and infrastructure**: Morocco might not have the same level of resources and infrastructure as other participating countries, which could impact their preparation and performance in the tournament.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1/10):
- **Upset potential**: In sports, upsets can occur when less-experienced teams perform better than expected. While this is a long shot, it's not impossible for Morocco to cause an upset and win the tournament.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the lack of experience, reputation, and resources, it's challenging to predict Morocco winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup. However, the possibility of an upset cannot be entirely ruled out. Given the low probability of an upset, the most likely outcome is that Morocco will not win the tournament.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would assign an initial probability of 0.01 (1%) to Morocco winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 0.01 (1%) seems to be a reasonable estimate, considering the significant gap between Morocco's experience and the established teams participating in the tournament. However, this probability might be too low, as it underestimates the potential for upsets in sports. A more realistic approach might be to assign a slightly higher probability, such as 0.05 (5%).

7. Final prediction:
*0.05*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.05
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**
Will Colombia win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to be held in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023?

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**
1. **Lack of Past Success:** Colombia has never participated in the FIFA Women's World Cup final or won the tournament. This lack of experience and past success could be a significant obstacle. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Competition from Strong Teams:** The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup features 32 teams, including top contenders like the United States, Germany, and Sweden. Colombia will face stiff competition from these teams, making it challenging to win the tournament. (Strength: 8/10)
3. **Group Stage Performance:** Colombia needs to perform well in the group stage to advance to the knockout rounds. If they struggle in the group stage, their chances of winning the tournament will be severely limited. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Injuries and Team Chemistry:** Injuries to key players or issues with team chemistry can significantly impact a team's performance. Colombia may be vulnerable to such issues, which could affect their chances of winning the tournament. (Strength: 4/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**
1. **Improving Team Performance:** Colombia has been improving their women's national team in recent years, with a growing pool of talented players. This improvement could translate to a strong performance in the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup. (Strength: 7/10)
2. **Experience and Leadership:** Colombia has gained valuable experience playing in international tournaments, including the Copa América Femenina. This experience and leadership could help them navigate the challenges of the World Cup. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Home Advantage:** Although the tournament is being held in Australia and New Zealand, Colombia's performance could be boosted by the support of their fans, who will be traveling to the tournament. This home advantage could give them an edge over other teams. (Strength: 3/10)
4. **Upset Potential:** In a tournament with many strong teams, upsets can occur. Colombia, with their improving performance and experience, could potentially cause an upset and advance deep into the tournament. (Strength: 5/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**
Considering the reasons for and against Colombia winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, it appears that the team faces significant challenges, including a lack of past success, strong competition, and potential injuries or team chemistry issues. However, they also have reasons to be optimistic, such as improving performance, experience, and the potential for upsets.

**Initial Probability:**
Given the considerations above, I estimate the probability of Colombia winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup to be 5%.

**Evaluation and Final Prediction:**
My initial probability of 5% may be too low, as it does not take into account the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of any team winning the World Cup). In a tournament with 32 teams, the base rate of a team winning is approximately 3.1% (1/32). Considering this base rate, my initial probability may be too conservative.

However, I do not want to be excessively confident in my prediction, as there are many variables that can affect the outcome of the tournament. Therefore, I will stick with my initial probability, but I will also consider the base rate when evaluating my final prediction.

**Final Prediction:**
*0.05*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.05
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question**

Will South Korea win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to take place in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023, according to the official FIFA Women's World Cup standings and results from past tournaments? The FIFA Women's World Cup is an international association football tournament held every 4 years among women's national football teams. The tournament has been held since 1991, and past winners include the United States (4 times), Germany (2 times), Norway (1 time), Japan (1 time), and others. The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup will feature 32 teams, and the winner will be determined by a series of matches, with the final match scheduled to take place on August 20, 2023.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong)**

1. South Korea has not had significant success in the FIFA Women's World Cup, with their best finish being the Round of 16 in 2015 and 2019. (Strength: 3)
2. The competition in the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is expected to be fierce, with many strong teams participating, including defending champion the United States, Germany, and others. (Strength: 4)
3. South Korea's women's national football team has not had a strong recent performance in international friendlies and other tournaments, which may indicate a lack of preparation and form. (Strength: 2)
4. The team's squad and coaching staff may not have the necessary experience and expertise to compete at the highest level. (Strength: 2)
5. South Korea's football infrastructure and resources may not be on par with those of other top-ranked teams, which could hinder their performance. (Strength: 3)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong)**

1. South Korea has been investing heavily in women's football, with a focus on developing young talent and improving the team's overall performance. (Strength: 4)
2. The team has shown improvement in recent years, with a strong performance in the 2022 AFC Women's Asian Cup. (Strength: 3)
3. South Korea has a good chance of advancing to the knockout stage, which could provide them with an opportunity to make a deep run in the tournament. (Strength: 2)
4. The team's players have been gaining experience and confidence through international friendlies and other tournaments. (Strength: 2)
5. South Korea's team spirit and determination could play a significant role in their performance, as they have a strong will to succeed. (Strength: 3)

**Aggregated Considerations**

After considering the reasons why the answer might be yes or no, I conclude that the outcome is uncertain and influenced by various factors. While South Korea has some strengths, such as investment in women's football and recent improvement, they also face significant challenges, including a lack of experience and resources compared to top-ranked teams.

**Initial Probability**

Based on my analysis, I assign an initial probability of 20 to the answer being yes.

**Re-evaluation and Final Prediction**

After re-evaluating my initial probability, I consider the following factors:

* The base rate of the event: The FIFA Women's World Cup is a highly competitive tournament, and the odds are against any team winning.
* The strength of the teams participating: The 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup features many strong teams, making it difficult for South Korea to emerge as champions.
* The uncertainty of the tournament: The outcome of the tournament is uncertain, and many factors can influence the result.

Considering these factors, I adjust my initial probability to a more conservative estimate. I conclude that the probability of South Korea winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup is *0.05*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.05
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land its four-legged lander on the moon and deploy the 60-pound, solar-powered Pragyan rover to the lunar surface, allowing it to establish communication with ISRO for at least two weeks? The landing and rover deployment must be confirmed by credible media sources.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-5, where 1 is a weak reason and 5 is a strong reason):

- **Reason 1: Technical issues with the lander or rover** (Strength: 3) - Although ISRO has made significant improvements since Chandrayaan-2, there is still a possibility of technical issues arising during the mission.
- **Reason 2: Navigation and communication challenges** (Strength: 4) - The precision required for a soft landing on the moon's surface is extremely high, and any miscalculation or communication failure could lead to a failed mission.
- **Reason 3: Environmental factors** (Strength: 2) - The moon's surface environment is harsh, with extreme temperatures and radiation, which could affect the lander and rover's performance.
- **Reason 4: Lack of experience with lunar landers** (Strength: 4) - Although ISRO has experience with space missions, they have not successfully landed a rover on the moon before, making this mission a high-risk endeavor.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-5, where 1 is a weak reason and 5 is a strong reason):

- **Reason 1: ISRO's experience with space missions** (Strength: 4) - ISRO has a proven track record of successfully launching and operating space missions, including the Chandrayaan-1 mission.
- **Reason 2: Improvements made since Chandrayaan-2** (Strength: 5) - ISRO has had time to learn from the mistakes of Chandrayaan-2 and make significant improvements to the lander and rover design.
- **Reason 3: Robust testing and simulation** (Strength: 5) - ISRO has likely conducted extensive testing and simulation to ensure the lander and rover are ready for the mission.
- **Reason 4: Government support and resources** (Strength: 4) - The Indian government has provided significant resources and support for the Chandrayaan program, increasing the likelihood of success.

4. Aggregated considerations:

- Strengths: ISRO's experience, improvements made since Chandrayaan-2, robust testing, and government support.
- Weaknesses: Technical issues, navigation and communication challenges, environmental factors, and lack of experience with lunar landers.

5. Initial probability: 70

6. Evaluation:

- My initial probability of 70 seems reasonable, considering the strengths and weaknesses. However, I may be underestimating the potential risks associated with the mission.
- The base rate of success for lunar missions is relatively low, but ISRO's experience and improvements since Chandrayaan-2 increase the likelihood of success.

7. Final prediction: *0.7*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th, 2023, as reported by credible sources such as the CDC, WHO, or the Algerian government, given the recent preliminary reports of Marburg in Algeria in mid-July and the country's subsequent denial of these reports, and considering the context of the recent Marburg outbreaks in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania in 2023, which were reported to have ended after two consecutive incubation periods (42 days) without a new confirmed case reported?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reason 1: Algeria's denial of the preliminary reports of Marburg in mid-July might indicate that the country is taking proactive measures to prevent the spread of the virus, and this could potentially lead to the identification and isolation of any cases, reducing the likelihood of a confirmed case by July 28th. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: The recent outbreaks in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania were reported to have ended after two consecutive incubation periods (42 days) without a new confirmed case, which suggests that the virus might not be actively circulating in the region. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: Algeria's healthcare system and public health infrastructure might be robust enough to detect and respond to any potential cases, reducing the likelihood of a confirmed case going undetected until July 28th. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Reason 1: The preliminary reports of Marburg in Algeria in mid-July might be true, and the country's denial could be a delay in reporting or a lack of transparency, which could lead to a confirmed case by July 28th. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: The Marburg virus has a relatively high mortality rate and can spread quickly, especially in areas with inadequate healthcare infrastructure, making it possible for a confirmed case to occur in Algeria by July 28th. (Strength: 9/10)
- Reason 3: The recent outbreaks in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania demonstrate that Marburg can spread in Africa, and Algeria's location in the region increases the likelihood of the virus being introduced and spreading in the country. (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the balance of evidence suggests that the likelihood of a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th is relatively high. The recent preliminary reports, the country's denial, and the potential for the virus to spread in the region all contribute to this assessment.

5. Initial probability: 70

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 70 seems reasonable given the available information. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as the potential consequences of a confirmed case of Marburg virus are significant, and the recent outbreaks in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania demonstrate the virus's ability to spread quickly. Considering the base rate of Marburg outbreaks in Africa, which is relatively low, the probability might be adjusted downward.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act (EATS) pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024, considering the bill's aim to prevent states and local jurisdictions from interfering with the production and distribution of agricultural products in interstate commerce, as a response to the Supreme Court's decision upholding Proposition 12, a law that prohibits the sale of eggs, pork, and/or veal from caged animals raised anywhere in the world?

Reasons why the answer might be 'No' (with strength ratings from 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Strong (4)**: The bill has faced criticism from animal welfare advocates who argue that it would worsen animal welfare across the country and reverse decades of progress for hens, pigs, and calves. This opposition might lead to a significant number of Democratic representatives voting against the bill.
2. **Medium (3)**: The bill's passage would require bipartisan support, but the current political climate in the US is highly polarized. The bill might face resistance from Democratic representatives who prioritize animal welfare and environmental concerns over agricultural interests.
3. **Weak (2)**: The bill's proponents argue that it would preserve interstate agricultural trade and prevent undue interference by state and local governments. However, this argument might not resonate with representatives from states that have already implemented anti-confinement laws or those who prioritize animal welfare.
4. **Weak (1)**: The bill's introduction in the Senate on June 15, 2023, might not have generated enough momentum to guarantee its passage in the House of Representatives by January 3, 2024.

Reasons why the answer might be 'Yes' (with strength ratings from 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Strong (5)**: The bill has bipartisan support from Republican senators, which could translate to support in the House of Representatives. The bill's proponents have a clear argument that it would preserve interstate agricultural trade and prevent undue interference by state and local governments.
2. **Medium (4)**: The Supreme Court's decision upholding Proposition 12 might have created a sense of urgency among agricultural interests to pass the EATS Act and prevent similar state-level regulations in the future.
3. **Weak (2)**: The bill's proponents might be able to rally support from representatives who prioritize agricultural interests over animal welfare concerns, especially if they believe the bill would benefit their constituents.

Aggregated considerations:
The bill has both strong support and opposition, and its passage is not guaranteed. However, the bill's proponents have a clear argument, and the Supreme Court's decision might have created a sense of urgency. Animal welfare advocates' opposition is significant, but it might not be enough to block the bill's passage.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 might be too low, considering the bill's bipartisan support and the sense of urgency created by the Supreme Court's decision. However, the opposition from animal welfare advocates and the polarized political climate in the US might still pose significant challenges to the bill's passage.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will a Navy vessel displacing ≥500 tonnes be lost or critically damaged in the Black Sea before January 1, 2025, due to any reason, including but not limited to, sinking, destruction, scuttling, capture, or critical damage while operating in the Black Sea? This prediction includes the cumulative displacement of multiple smaller Navy vessels (displacing <500 tonnes) if their total displacement is ≥500 tonnes.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **Lack of recent incidents**: There have been no significant naval incidents in the Black Sea since the sinking of the Moskva in April 2022. This might indicate a decrease in naval activity or a shift in tactics that could reduce the risk of vessel loss. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Improved Russian naval capabilities**: The Russian Navy has been upgrading its fleet, and the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) has received new vessels, including the frigate Admiral Gorshkov, which was commissioned in 2020. This could lead to improved naval capabilities and reduced risk of loss. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Turkish influence**: Turkey's control over the Bosporus Strait, as per the Montreux Convention, might limit the ability of other navies to engage in naval conflicts in the Black Sea, reducing the risk of vessel loss. (Strength: 4/10)
4. **US Navy's cautious approach**: The US Navy has been cautious in its operations in the Black Sea, with a recent incident involving a downed MQ-9 Reaper UAV. This might indicate a reduced willingness to engage in high-risk operations, reducing the likelihood of vessel loss. (Strength: 3/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **Ongoing conflict**: The Russo-Ukrainian war is ongoing, and the Black Sea has been a key area of conflict. The risk of naval incidents and vessel loss remains high. (Strength: 9/10)
2. **Russian naval activity**: The Russian Navy has been actively operating in the Black Sea, and the BSF has been involved in several incidents, including the sinking of the Moskva. This suggests a continued risk of naval incidents. (Strength: 8/10)
3. **Ukrainian Navy's limited capabilities**: The Ukrainian Navy's limited capabilities and the loss of its larger vessels might lead to a reliance on smaller, more vulnerable vessels, increasing the risk of loss. (Strength: 6/10)
4. **Accidental events**: The risk of accidental events, such as collisions or friendly fire, cannot be ruled out, especially in a high-stress environment like the Black Sea. (Strength: 5/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Considering the ongoing conflict, Russian naval activity, and the risk of accidental events, the likelihood of a Navy vessel being lost or critically damaged in the Black Sea before January 1, 2025, appears to be relatively high. However, the lack of recent incidents and the improved Russian naval capabilities might mitigate this risk to some extent.

**Initial Probability:** 62

**Evaluation of Confidence:**

The initial probability of 62 seems relatively high, but it's essential to consider the base rate of the event. The question asks for a specific outcome (a Navy vessel being lost or critically damaged) in a relatively high-risk environment (the Black Sea during an ongoing conflict). The base rate of this event is likely low, as naval incidents are relatively rare. This might suggest that the initial probability is excessively confident.

**Final Prediction:** *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop their essay requirements for the standard undergraduate application for admission to the 2024 class, considering the growing concern about the use of AI tools like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude in writing essays and the potential impact on academic integrity?

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **Tradition and Academic Integrity**: Essays are a long-standing tradition in the admissions process, and many universities value them as a way to assess a student's writing skills, creativity, and critical thinking. Dropping the essay requirement might undermine the academic integrity of the admissions process. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Assessment of Writing Skills**: Essays provide a way for admissions committees to evaluate a student's writing skills, which are essential for academic success. Without essays, it might be challenging to assess a student's ability to communicate complex ideas effectively. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Differentiation**: Essays help universities differentiate between applicants, especially in highly competitive admissions processes. Without essays, it might be harder for universities to distinguish between strong and weak candidates. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Lack of Alternatives**: There are no obvious alternatives to essays that can effectively assess the same qualities, making it challenging for universities to replace them entirely. (Strength: 4/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **Growing Concerns about AI-generated Essays**: The widespread use of AI tools to write essays has raised concerns about academic integrity, and some universities might decide to drop the essay requirement to avoid these issues. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Increased Competition**: The use of AI tools to write essays might level the playing field, making it harder for universities to distinguish between applicants. Dropping the essay requirement could help universities focus on other factors, such as grades and extracurricular activities. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Time and Resource Constraints**: Essays require significant time and resources from admissions committees, and some universities might decide to allocate these resources elsewhere. (Strength: 4/10)
4. **Adaptation to Changing Times**: Universities might recognize the need to adapt to changing times and technology and decide to drop the essay requirement as a way to stay ahead of the curve. (Strength: 5/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Considering the reasons above, I weigh the pros and cons as follows:

* Traditional arguments for keeping essays (tradition, assessment of writing skills, differentiation, and lack of alternatives) have some merit but are not as strong as the concerns about AI-generated essays.
* The growing concerns about AI-generated essays and the potential for increased competition in the admissions process are significant factors that might lead universities to drop the essay requirement.
* Time and resource constraints and the need for adaptation to changing times are less significant factors.

**Initial Probability:**

Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of at least one of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT dropping their essay requirements for the 2024 class to be around 60%.

**Evaluating Confidence and Base Rate:**

My initial probability might be excessively confident, as it is based on a limited analysis of the situation. The base rate of universities dropping essay requirements is unknown, and there might be other factors at play that I have not considered. A more conservative approach would be to consider the base rate of universities making significant changes to their admissions processes, which is likely to be low.

**Final Prediction:**

*0.40*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023, given the current geopolitical context and recent developments in the region, such as Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the potential for increased tensions between Russia and Ukraine? This question will resolve as Yes if, after July 25, 2023, and before September 25, 2023, credible sources report that a US warship has passed through the Bosphorus Strait into the Black Sea, as defined by the 1936 Montreux Convention. For the purposes of this question, a "warship" will be a ship primarily intended for naval warfare and will include submarines.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- **Reason 1: Historical precedent:** Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Bosphorus Strait has been closed to warships, and the US has not sent warships through the Black Sea. This precedent suggests that the US might continue to avoid entering the Black Sea due to the potential risks and tensions. Strength: 6/10
- **Reason 2: Türkiye's stance:** The Bosphorus Strait is controlled by Türkiye, which has been careful to maintain a neutral stance in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. If Türkiye continues to enforce the 1936 Montreux Convention, it might not allow US warships to pass through the strait. Strength: 5/10
- **Reason 3: US caution:** The US might be cautious about entering the Black Sea due to the increased tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and the potential risks to US personnel and assets. Strength: 7/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- **Reason 1: Retired Admiral Stavridis's proposal:** Retired US Navy Admiral James Stavridis has proposed that US and NATO convoys should protect maritime shipments in the Black Sea. This suggests that the US might consider taking a more active role in the region, including entering the Black Sea. Strength: 8/10
- **Reason 2: Need for grain exports:** Ukraine needs to export grain through the Black Sea, and the US might consider entering the Black Sea to support Ukraine's efforts and maintain stability in the region. Strength: 6/10
- **Reason 3: US interests in the region:** The US has significant interests in the region, including maintaining a strong relationship with Ukraine and countering Russian influence. Entering the Black Sea might be seen as a way to demonstrate US commitment to these interests. Strength: 7/10

4. Aggregated considerations:

- The historical precedent and US caution suggest that the answer might be no (Reasons 1 and 3). However, the proposal by Retired Admiral Stavridis and the need for grain exports suggest that the answer might be yes (Reasons 1 and 2). The US interests in the region also support the possibility of a US warship entering the Black Sea (Reason 3). Overall, the reasons in favor of a US warship entering the Black Sea seem to outweigh the reasons against it.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate that the probability of a US warship entering the Black Sea before September 25, 2023, is around 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, given the considerations above. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as the reasons in favor of a US warship entering the Black Sea seem to outweigh the reasons against it. Additionally, the base rate of US warships entering the Black Sea is zero since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which might suggest a higher probability of a US warship entering the Black Sea in the near future.

7. Final prediction:

*0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Meta launch a dedicated, generally accessible, and official website for the Threads app before October 1, 2023, allowing users to access and post content using typical web browsers on desktop computers, without requiring emulation of Android or iOS?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Focus on mobile platforms (Strength: 60%):** Meta might be prioritizing mobile platforms, as they are the primary way people interact with social media, and launching a website might be seen as secondary or less important.
- **Reason 2: Resource allocation (Strength: 40%):** Developing and maintaining a website requires significant resources, and Meta might be allocating those resources to other projects or initiatives.
- **Reason 3: Existing platform dominance (Strength: 20%):** Meta might be confident that the existing Instagram and Facebook platforms can handle the Threads user base and content, making a dedicated website unnecessary.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: User demand (Strength: 80%):** With 30 million users signing up in the first day, there is significant demand for a more accessible and convenient way to use Threads, which a website could provide.
- **Reason 2: Cross-platform compatibility (Strength: 70%):** A website would allow users to access Threads from any device with a web browser, making it more accessible and convenient for users.
- **Reason 3: Meta's past behavior (Strength: 50%):** Meta has launched websites for other services, such as Facebook and Instagram, so it's possible they might follow a similar approach for Threads.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the main factors are user demand and cross-platform compatibility, which suggest a strong likelihood of a website launch. However, the focus on mobile platforms, resource allocation, and existing platform dominance introduce uncertainty. The strength of the "yes" reasons seems to outweigh the "no" reasons, but the uncertainty remains.

5. Initial probability: 65

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 65 seems reasonable, but it might be too high considering the uncertainty surrounding Meta's priorities and resource allocation. The base rate of new social media platforms launching websites is not particularly high, so this event might be less likely than initially thought.

7. Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every single day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history, as compared to the same dates in all years since satellite tracking started in 1979? This question resolves based on the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent reported by the National Snow & Ice Data Center. The resolution criteria are as follows: The question resolves as Yes if the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is less on every single day from September 1st, 2023 to September 30th, 2023 compared to the same dates in all years since satellite tracking started in 1979. The question immediately resolves as No if the extent of Antarctic Sea Ice for any date between September 1, 2023, and September 30, 2023, exceeds the extent for the same day in any year between 1979 and 2022. Forecasters exploring the data from the resolution source should be sure to switch the sea ice extent to "Antarctic." Given that the 2023 Antarctic sea ice season has already set a record low in 2023, with the minimum sea ice extent for the year measuring 136,000 square kilometers less than the previous record low set in 2022, and the current extent is at historic lows, we need to assess whether this trend will continue throughout September.

2. Reasons why the answer might be No:

- Reason 1: Natural climate variability can cause fluctuations in sea ice extent, which might lead to higher sea ice extent on certain days in September 2023 compared to previous years. Strength: 4/10
- Reason 2: The current sea ice extent is already at historic lows, but there is a possibility that the extent might increase due to changes in ocean currents or atmospheric conditions. Strength: 3/10
- Reason 3: The resolution criteria require the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent to be lower on every single day in September 2023 compared to the same dates in all years since satellite tracking started in 1979. If the extent is higher on even a single day, the question resolves as No. Strength: 9/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be Yes:

- Reason 1: The 2023 Antarctic sea ice season has already set a record low in 2023, with the minimum sea ice extent for the year measuring 136,000 square kilometers less than the previous record low set in 2022. This suggests a strong trend of decreasing sea ice extent. Strength: 8/10
- Reason 2: The current extent is at historic lows, and the winter growth phase is typically when sea ice extent increases. However, if the trend of decreasing sea ice extent continues, it is possible that the extent might remain low throughout September. Strength: 6/10
- Reason 3: The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) records show that the Antarctic sea ice extent as of June 27, 2023, was 4.5 million square miles (11.7 million square kilometers), nearly a million square miles (2.6 million square kilometers) below the 1981-2010 average, and approaching a half a million square miles (1.2 million square kilometers) below the previous lowest extent for the day, observed in 2022. This indicates a significant deviation from the average and previous records. Strength: 7/10

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the most significant factor is the resolution criteria, which requires the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent to be lower on every single day in September 2023 compared to the same dates in all years since satellite tracking started in 1979. While there are some reasons why the answer might be Yes, the possibility of natural climate variability and changes in ocean currents or atmospheric conditions leading to higher sea ice extent on certain days in September 2023 cannot be ruled out.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would assign an initial probability of 60 to the answer being Yes.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the strong trend of decreasing sea ice extent in 2023. However, it also does not fully account for the possibility of natural climate variability and changes in ocean currents or atmospheric conditions leading to higher sea ice extent on certain days in September 2023.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the first independent replication attempt, published as a pre-print or in a reputable scientific journal, confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99, a material claimed to be synthesized by the authors of the original study? This confirmation will be achieved if the replication reproduces the synthesis of LK-99, confirms that its critical temperature (Tc) exceeds 400 K (126.85°C), and confirms that the resistivity drops to the stated threshold of 10^-10 Ω·cm. The replication must be conducted by researchers at institution(s) independent from the authors of the original study. If no credible reports of an attempted replication are made before July 1, 2024, or if the original pre-print is withdrawn and a new version is not published before July 1, 2024, and no independent replication has been performed before July 1, 2024, the question will resolve as NO.

Reasons why the answer might be NO (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

1. **Historical precedent of failed replications**: Many high-profile scientific claims have been retracted or failed to be replicated in the past, which can indicate a lack of rigor in the original study or the difficulty of reproducing the results. (Strength: 4)
2. **Lack of peer review**: The original study was published as a pre-print, which may not have undergone the same level of scrutiny as a peer-reviewed journal article. (Strength: 3)
3. **Complexity of superconductivity research**: Superconductivity research is a highly complex and challenging field, and small variations in experimental conditions or materials synthesis can lead to inconsistent results. (Strength: 4)
4. **Potential for contamination or experimental error**: The synthesis and characterization of LK-99 may be prone to contamination or experimental errors, which could affect the accuracy of the results. (Strength: 3)
5. **Institutional or funding pressures**: The authors of the original study may face institutional or funding pressures to produce high-impact results, which could lead to biased or flawed research. (Strength: 2)

Reasons why the answer might be YES (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

1. **Rapid dissemination of the original study**: The original study was published as a pre-print, which allows for rapid dissemination and potential rapid replication attempts. (Strength: 4)
2. **Increased interest in superconductivity research**: The discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity would be a significant breakthrough, which could attract many researchers to attempt to replicate the results. (Strength: 5)
3. **Growing expertise in materials synthesis**: Advances in materials synthesis and characterization techniques have improved in recent years, making it easier for researchers to reproduce complex materials like LK-99. (Strength: 4)
4. **Availability of resources and funding**: The potential significance of the discovery may attract significant funding and resources, allowing researchers to devote time and effort to replicating the results. (Strength: 4)
5. **Open-source nature of the original study**: The pre-print nature of the original study allows for open-source access to the methods and materials used, which could facilitate replication attempts. (Strength: 3)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I think that the answer is more likely to be NO, but not by a large margin. The historical precedent of failed replications, lack of peer review, and complexity of superconductivity research all contribute to a lower likelihood of successful replication. However, the rapid dissemination of the original study, increased interest in superconductivity research, and growing expertise in materials synthesis all suggest that replication attempts may be more successful. I also consider the base rate of successful replications in scientific research, which is generally around 10-20%.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 40 seems relatively low, but I think it's a reasonable starting point. However, I may be underestimating the potential for successful replication attempts. I should consider the following factors that might increase the likelihood of successful replication:

* The potential for multiple replication attempts to be conducted simultaneously, which could increase the chances of successful replication.
* The possibility that the original study may have been more rigorous than initially apparent, which could increase the likelihood of successful replication.
* The potential for the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity to have significant practical applications, which could attract more researchers to attempt replication.

Considering these factors, I may need to adjust my initial probability upward.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer be completed in 19 days, as scheduled by the United Nations, which aims to finish the transfer by August 13, 2023, and is being carried out round-the-clock over the next 19 days, starting from July 25, 2023, despite the vessel's compromised structural integrity and lack of maintenance for eight years?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The vessel's structural integrity is compromised, making it at risk of breaking up or exploding, which could cause a catastrophic failure of the oil transfer operation. (Strength: 4)
- The lack of maintenance for eight years may have caused significant damage to the vessel's systems, potentially leading to equipment failures or other issues that could hinder the transfer process. (Strength: 3)
- The complexity of the operation, involving the transfer of a large amount of oil over a short period, may lead to unforeseen challenges or setbacks. (Strength: 2)
- The involvement of multiple parties and the need for round-the-clock operation may lead to coordination issues or logistical problems. (Strength: 2)
- The history of delays or setbacks in similar operations may suggest a higher likelihood of delays in this case. (Strength: 1)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The United Nations has been working on this operation for months, and the preparatory work has likely identified and mitigated many potential risks. (Strength: 4)
- The fact that the transfer is being carried out round-the-clock suggests a high level of commitment and resources dedicated to the operation. (Strength: 3)
- The involvement of an international team and the use of a purchased vessel to receive the oil may indicate a well-planned and well-resourced operation. (Strength: 3)
- The UN's involvement suggests a high level of priority and commitment to completing the operation. (Strength: 2)
- The fact that the operation is scheduled to be completed in 19 days suggests a clear plan and timeline, which may help to mitigate risks. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons for a "no" outcome are more related to the inherent risks and challenges of the operation, while the reasons for a "yes" outcome are more related to the planning, resources, and commitment involved. The strength of the reasons for a "yes" outcome seems to outweigh those for a "no" outcome, but there is still a significant risk of unforeseen setbacks or challenges.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the oil transfer being completed in 19 days as 70.

6. Evaluation of confidence and base rate:
The initial probability of 70% may be considered moderately confident. The base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of the oil transfer being completed in 19 days without any information) is difficult to estimate, but it is likely to be relatively low due to the complexity and risks involved in the operation.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a credible preprint or paper describing a complete replication attempt of the LK-99 superconductivity results, as reported in the July 22, 2023 arXiv pre-print "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor," be published before August 4, 2023? A complete replication attempt must test the main findings of the original paper, including the synthesis of LK-99, whether the critical temperature (Tc) exceeds 400 K (127 C), and whether the resistance drops to the stated threshold of 10^-10 Ω·cm. The replication attempt's results are irrelevant for the purposes of this question. The preprint or paper must be publicly accessible, and Metaculus may rely on credible sources or machine translation for papers not published in English.

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
1. The scientific community is cautious when it comes to groundbreaking claims, and a replication attempt might be met with skepticism, potentially delaying publication (strength: 3).
2. The original paper's findings are based on a novel material, and reproducing its synthesis and properties might be challenging, which could slow down the replication process (strength: 4).
3. The scientific publication process can be lengthy, and the time required to review and verify the replication attempt's results might exceed the question's deadline (strength: 5).
4. The researchers who originally published the LK-99 results might be too busy or hesitant to share their data and methods, hindering the replication process (strength: 2).
5. The scientific community might be waiting for further validation or corroboration from other researchers before attempting a replication (strength: 3).

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
1. The LK-99 results have garnered significant attention, and several research groups might be actively working on replication attempts, increasing the likelihood of a published preprint or paper (strength: 4).
2. The scientific community is often eager to verify and build upon groundbreaking discoveries, and replication attempts might be expedited to confirm or refute the original findings (strength: 4).
3. The potential impact of a successful replication would be substantial, and researchers might be motivated to publish their results quickly to be among the first to confirm the LK-99 superconductivity (strength: 5).
4. The original paper's authors might be actively collaborating with other researchers to facilitate replication attempts and publication (strength: 3).
5. The arXiv pre-print system allows for rapid dissemination of research, and a replication attempt might be posted as a preprint before being formally published in a journal (strength: 3).

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, I believe that the likelihood of a replication attempt being published before August 4, 2023, is moderate. The scientific community's cautious nature, potential challenges in reproducing the LK-99 material, and the time required for review and verification all contribute to the possibility of a no answer. However, the significant attention surrounding the discovery, the eagerness to verify and build upon groundbreaking findings, and the potential impact of a successful replication attempt suggest that a yes answer is also plausible.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems reasonable, given the mixed considerations. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully capture the potential for a rapid replication attempt and publication. The base rate of scientific breakthroughs and replications is relatively high, which could also influence the forecast.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will credible sources report that Mohamed Bazoum, the former President of Niger, has been effectively re-instated as President of Niger, capable of exerting presidential authority, before August 31, 2023, according to the stipulated time frame and criteria outlined in the original question? This question will resolve as Yes if credible sources confirm that Bazoum holds the presidency and is capable of exerting presidential authority before August 31, 2023, otherwise it will resolve as No.

Reasons why the answer might be No (Strength: 1-5, 5 being the strongest):

1. The military coup that deposed Bazoum on July 26, 2023, was a significant event, and restoring the previous government might be a challenging task (Strength: 4). 
2. The West African countries and the African Union have imposed sanctions on Niger's new military leaders, but this does not necessarily guarantee the reinstatement of Bazoum (Strength: 3).
3. The military leaders might resist giving up power, and there is a possibility that they could maintain control or negotiate a compromise that does not involve Bazoum's return to power (Strength: 4).
4. The situation in Niger is complex, and the international community's influence might not be enough to ensure Bazoum's reinstatement (Strength: 3).
5. There is no clear indication that the military leaders are willing to step down or that Bazoum has the support of the necessary factions to regain power (Strength: 4).

Reasons why the answer might be Yes (Strength: 1-5, 5 being the strongest):

1. The international community, including West African countries and the African Union, has explicitly called for Bazoum's reinstatement, which could lead to significant pressure on the military leaders (Strength: 4).
2. The two-week deadline given by the African Union for the military to restore "constitutional authority" creates a clear timeline for action (Strength: 4).
3. The sanctions imposed by West African countries could have a significant impact on the new military leaders, potentially making it harder for them to maintain control (Strength: 3).
4. The international community might be able to negotiate a compromise that involves Bazoum's return to power or a transition to a more democratic government (Strength: 3).

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that the situation is complex, and there are valid arguments for both possibilities. However, the international community's explicit calls for Bazoum's reinstatement and the two-week deadline given by the African Union create a sense of urgency and pressure on the military leaders. Additionally, the sanctions imposed by West African countries could have a significant impact on the new government. Therefore, while there are valid reasons to believe that Bazoum might not be reinstated, the chances of his return to power seem higher than initially thought.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation:
Upon further consideration, I realize that my initial probability might be too low. The international community's pressure and the two-week deadline create a strong incentive for the military leaders to reinstate Bazoum. Additionally, the sanctions imposed by West African countries could have a significant impact on the new government. However, the situation in Niger is complex, and there are valid reasons to believe that the military leaders might resist giving up power. Therefore, a more balanced approach might be necessary.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will PEPFAR be extended by an act of Congress, signed into law by the President of the United States, before September 30th, 2023, with the extension being a short-term extension (less than five years)? This question resolves based on the duration of the approved extension, with a positive resolution for a short-term extension, a positive resolution for a full extension (five years or more), and a negative resolution for both.

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Bipartisan opposition**: The controversy surrounding PEPFAR's integration of "sexual reproductive health" and concerns about the Biden administration's ideological priorities might lead to bipartisan opposition to a full extension. Strength: 60%
2. **Pro-life groups' opposition**: The Family Research Council and the Heritage Foundation have already expressed strong opposition to a simple extension, citing concerns about the program's expansion of reproductive health services. Strength: 70%
3. **Congressional gridlock**: The 2023-2024 Congressional session is expected to be a challenging one, with a divided Congress and a narrow Republican majority in the House of Representatives. This might lead to difficulties in passing any legislation, including an extension of PEPFAR. Strength: 40%
4. **Alternative funding priorities**: The Biden administration's focus on other global health initiatives, such as the COVID-19 response and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, might divert attention and resources away from PEPFAR. Strength: 30%

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Historical precedent**: PEPFAR has been repeatedly extended on bipartisan grounds, with the most recent extension being for five years by the PEPFAR Extension Act of 2018. Strength: 80%
2. **Global health needs**: The ongoing HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa and other regions continues to require significant international support, and PEPFAR remains a critical program in addressing this need. Strength: 90%
3. **Bipartisan support for global health**: Many lawmakers from both parties recognize the importance of global health initiatives, including PEPFAR, in promoting American interests and addressing global challenges. Strength: 60%
4. **Potential for compromise**: The Biden administration's clarification on the meaning of "reproductive health" under PEPFAR might alleviate some concerns from pro-life groups, potentially leading to a compromise on a short-term extension. Strength: 50%

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the historical precedent, global health needs, and bipartisan support for global health initiatives, the initial probability leans towards a positive resolution. However, the controversy surrounding PEPFAR's expansion and the potential for bipartisan opposition, congressional gridlock, and alternative funding priorities might mitigate this likelihood.

Initial probability: 55

Evaluation of the initial probability:

The initial probability of 55% might be considered not confident enough, given the strong historical precedent and bipartisan support for PEPFAR. However, the controversy surrounding the program and potential opposition from pro-life groups and congressional gridlock might justify a more cautious approach.

Final prediction: *0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) be extended by an act of Congress, which is then signed into law by the President of the United States, before September 30th, 2023, for a duration of at least five years?

**Reasons Why the Answer Might Be No:**

1. **Partisan divisions and controversy over PEPFAR's direction**: The Biden administration's perceived attempts to integrate "sexual reproductive health" into PEPFAR's efforts may have alienated some conservative lawmakers, potentially making it difficult to secure a full extension. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Pro-life groups' opposition to PEPFAR's expansion**: Organizations like the Family Research Council and the Heritage Foundation have expressed strong opposition to PEPFAR's expansion, citing concerns over the program's potential promotion of abortion and radical gender ideology. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Congressional priorities and competing legislative agendas**: With a crowded legislative calendar and competing priorities, Congress may not have the bandwidth or motivation to tackle a contentious issue like PEPFAR's extension. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Potential for a short-term extension or no extension at all**: Given the controversy surrounding PEPFAR, it's possible that Congress may opt for a short-term extension or choose not to extend the program at all, rather than committing to a full five-year extension. (Strength: 6/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might Be Yes:**

1. **Bipartisan support for PEPFAR's legacy**: Despite the controversy, PEPFAR has a strong bipartisan legacy and has been a successful program in addressing the global HIV/AIDS epidemic. Many lawmakers may still be inclined to support its extension. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **The importance of continued HIV/AIDS funding**: The global HIV/AIDS epidemic remains a pressing issue, and continued funding is crucial for sustaining progress made in treating and preventing the disease. (Strength: 9/10)
3. **Potential for compromise and reform**: While there may be disagreements over PEPFAR's direction, there is still room for compromise and reform. Lawmakers may be able to find a middle ground that addresses concerns while still extending the program. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **The Biden administration's commitment to global health**: The Biden administration has expressed a commitment to global health and development, which could translate into support for PEPFAR's extension. (Strength: 6/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Based on the reasons provided, it seems that the opposition to PEPFAR's extension is driven by specific concerns over its direction, rather than a fundamental opposition to the program itself. While these concerns are significant, they may not be insurmountable. The importance of continued HIV/AIDS funding and the bipartisan legacy of PEFAR suggest that a full extension is still possible.

**Initial Probability:**

Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of a full extension of PEPFAR for at least five years at 60%.

**Evaluation and Final Prediction:**

Upon further reflection, I realize that my initial probability may be too high. The controversy surrounding PEPFAR's direction and the opposition from pro-life groups may be more significant than I initially thought. Additionally, the crowded legislative calendar and competing priorities may further complicate the extension process.

Considering these factors, I would revise my probability to 40%. This takes into account the potential for a short-term extension or no extension at all, as well as the challenges in securing a full five-year extension.

**Final Prediction:** *0.40*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger to restore the government of ousted President Mohamed Bazoum and civilian rule before August 12, 2023, given the ultimatum issued on July 30, 2023, and credible media reports of the situation on the ground?

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **ECOWAS's history of diplomatic efforts**: ECOWAS has a history of attempting to resolve conflicts through diplomatic means before resorting to military intervention. This might indicate that they may continue to explore peaceful solutions rather than immediately resorting to force. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **International community's stance**: The international community, including the United Nations, has generally advocated for peaceful resolutions to conflicts. This might lead ECOWAS to prioritize diplomatic efforts over military intervention. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Niger's regional dynamics**: Niger is a landlocked country with limited military capabilities, and any military intervention would require significant resources and coordination. This might make it challenging for ECOWAS to launch a successful intervention. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **ECOWAS's limited military capabilities**: ECOWAS member states have limited military capabilities compared to other regional organizations, which might hinder their ability to launch a successful military intervention. (Strength: 6/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **ECOWAS's ultimatum**: ECOWAS has issued a clear ultimatum, stating that they will take "all necessary measures, which may include the use of force," if President Bazoum is not reinstated within one week. This suggests a strong commitment to action. (Strength: 9/10)
2. **Regional instability**: The coup in Niger is the fourth in an ECOWAS country since 2021, indicating a pattern of instability in the region. This might prompt ECOWAS to take decisive action to prevent further destabilization. (Strength: 8/10)
3. **International pressure**: The international community, including the African Union and the United Nations, has condemned the coup and called for the restoration of civilian rule. This external pressure might influence ECOWAS's decision to intervene militarily. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **ECOWAS's mandate**: As a regional organization, ECOWAS has a mandate to maintain peace and stability in its member states. A military intervention in Niger might be seen as a necessary measure to uphold this mandate. (Strength: 8/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against a military intervention, I weigh the strengths and weaknesses of each argument. The ultimatum issued by ECOWAS and the regional instability in the area are significant factors in favor of an intervention. However, the history of diplomatic efforts, international community's stance, Niger's regional dynamics, and ECOWAS's limited military capabilities are counterarguments that suggest a more cautious approach.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation:
My initial probability of 60 seems relatively high, considering the counterarguments. However, the ultimatum and regional instability are significant factors that suggest a higher likelihood of military intervention. I might be underestimating the effectiveness of diplomatic efforts and the challenges associated with military intervention.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023, to restore the government of ousted President Mohamed Bazoum and civilian rule, as per the ultimatum issued on July 30, 2023, and in line with the organization's history of military intervention in regional conflicts?

Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strong to weak):
1. **ECOWAS's hesitation and delay in taking action** (Strength: 8/10): As of August 9, 2023, ECOWAS has not launched a military intervention, and instead, plans to hold a second emergency summit on August 10. This indicates a possible reluctance to take immediate action.
2. **ECOWAS's past inaction in similar situations** (Strength: 6/10): While ECOWAS has intervened militarily in some regional conflicts, it has also been criticized for its inaction in other situations, such as in Guinea-Bissau. This might suggest that ECOWAS is not always willing to take decisive action.
3. **International diplomatic efforts and potential alternatives to military intervention** (Strength: 5/10): The international community, including the African Union and the United Nations, might be working towards a diplomatic resolution, potentially reducing the likelihood of military intervention.
4. **ECOWAS's limited resources and capabilities** (Strength: 4/10): ECOWAS might not have the necessary military resources or capabilities to launch a successful intervention in Niger.

Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strong to weak):
1. **ECOWAS's ultimatum and threat of force** (Strength: 9/10): ECOWAS explicitly stated that it will take "all necessary measures, which may include the use of force," if President Bazoum is not reinstated within a week. This suggests a strong commitment to taking action.
2. **History of ECOWAS's military intervention** (Strength: 8/10): ECOWAS has a history of intervening militarily in regional conflicts, which suggests that it is willing to take decisive action when necessary.
3. **Regional instability and potential for further destabilization** (Strength: 7/10): The coup in Niger has the potential to destabilize the region, and ECOWAS might intervene to prevent further instability and maintain regional security.
4. **International pressure and support for ECOWAS's actions** (Strength: 6/10): The international community might be pressuring ECOWAS to take action, which could increase the likelihood of military intervention.

Aggregated considerations:
ECOWAS's ultimatum and history of military intervention suggest a strong commitment to taking action. However, the organization's hesitation and delay in taking action, as well as its past inaction in similar situations, might indicate a more cautious approach. The international community's efforts towards a diplomatic resolution and ECOWAS's limited resources and capabilities are also factors to consider.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of confidence:
The initial probability of 60 might be considered not confident enough, given the strong evidence of ECOWAS's commitment to taking action. However, the organization's past inaction and hesitation in taking action suggest that there are valid reasons to be cautious.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will any of the six alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump, identified as Rudy Giuliani, John Eastman, Sidney Powell, Jeffrey Clark, Kenneth Chesebro, or an unknown individual, be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023, as reported by credible sources? This question will resolve as Yes if, after August 2, 2023, and before August 11, 2023, credible sources report that any of the listed individuals have been indicted for a federal felony, regardless of whether the indictment is sealed or not, and regardless of its direct relation to Donald Trump's election interference indictment.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

- The indictment of Donald Trump might be a one-off event, and the co-conspirators might not face similar charges. (Strength: 4/10)
- The Department of Justice might have already investigated and cleared the co-conspirators, or they might be too powerful to indict. (Strength: 3/10)
- The co-conspirators might have already been interviewed or cooperated with the investigation, and their involvement might be limited to a minor role. (Strength: 5/10)
- The indictment might be focused on high-level officials, and the co-conspirators might not be considered high enough priority for indictment. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

- The indictment of Donald Trump sets a precedent for holding others accountable for election interference. (Strength: 6/10)
- The investigation into the 2020 election interference is ongoing, and it's possible that other individuals will be indicted as more evidence is uncovered. (Strength: 7/10)
- The co-conspirators might have more significant roles in the election interference scheme, making them more likely to be indicted. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Department of Justice might be under pressure to hold the co-conspirators accountable, given the public attention surrounding the Trump indictment. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, the most significant factors in favor of the answer being yes are the ongoing investigation and the precedent set by the Trump indictment. However, the co-conspirators' potential involvement and the Department of Justice's priorities also play a role. The reasons against the answer being yes are relatively weaker, but still present.

5. Initial probability:

Given the considerations above, I would initially estimate the probability of the answer being yes at 60.

6. Evaluation and final thoughts:

My initial probability might be too confident, considering the complexity of the situation and the potential for various factors to influence the outcome. The base rate of federal felony indictments is relatively low, which might also affect the probability. Additionally, the unknown co-conspirator's identity and potential involvement could significantly impact the outcome.

7. Final prediction:

*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023, as a result of the petitions that will be heard on September 12, 2023, and considering the court's typical procedures and timelines for handling such cases?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-10 for strength, 1 being the weakest and 10 being the strongest):

- The Israeli High Court might take longer than expected to issue a ruling due to the complexity of the case and the need for thorough deliberation (Strength: 6).
- The court might decide to delay the ruling or issue a non-merits ruling, such as freezing the implementation of the law, rather than a merits-based ruling (Strength: 8).
- The court might not be able to issue a ruling before October 1, 2023, due to scheduling conflicts, vacations, or other logistical issues (Strength: 4).
- The court might be unable to reach a unanimous decision, leading to a delay in the ruling (Strength: 5).
- The court might decide to issue a ruling, but it might be a non-binding advisory opinion rather than a binding decision (Strength: 3).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-10 for strength, 1 being the weakest and 10 being the strongest):

- The court has already agreed to hear the petitions, indicating a willingness to consider the law's constitutionality (Strength: 9).
- The court typically issues rulings in a timely manner, and the petitions have already been scheduled for September 12, 2023, which suggests a relatively quick turnaround (Strength: 8).
- The court may be eager to issue a ruling on the law's constitutionality, given its potential impact on the balance of power between the judiciary and the executive branch (Strength: 7).
- The court might be able to issue a ruling before October 1, 2023, as it often does in similar cases (Strength: 6).
- The court's ruling on the law's constitutionality could be a significant event, and issuing it before October 1, 2023, could help to clarify the law's status before the Knesset's next session (Strength: 5).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I weigh the strengths of each argument. The court's willingness to hear the petitions and its typical procedures suggest a high likelihood of a ruling before October 1, 2023. However, the potential for delays, non-merits rulings, or scheduling conflicts could still impact the timeline. I also consider the potential for the court to issue a non-binding advisory opinion, but this would not meet the criteria for a "yes" answer.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of the Israeli High Court issuing a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023, as 70.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
My initial probability of 70% might be considered relatively confident, but it is not excessively so, given the potential for delays or non-merits rulings. I did not consider the base rate of the event, as this is a specific and complex case.

7. Final prediction:
*0.7*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Israeli High Court of Justice uphold the "reasonableness" law, which limits the power of the courts to hear cases based on administrative decisions being "unreasonable," in their final ruling on the petitions against the law, before October 1, 2024?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Strong opposition from the legal community** (Strength: 8/10): The Israeli legal community and human rights organizations have been vocal in their opposition to the "reasonableness" law, which could indicate a strong likelihood of the High Court upholding the petitions against it.
- **Reason 2: International pressure and diplomatic implications** (Strength: 6/10): The international community, including Western countries, has expressed concerns about the erosion of judicial independence in Israel. This pressure could influence the High Court's decision, making it less likely to uphold the law.
- **Reason 3: The High Court's past decisions** (Strength: 5/10): The Israeli High Court has a history of striking down laws it deems unconstitutional or contrary to basic laws. This precedent could suggest that the court may be inclined to reject the "reasonableness" law.
- **Reason 4: Potential for a divided court** (Strength: 4/10): The High Court's decision may depend on the composition of the panel hearing the case, which could be influenced by the retirement or appointment of judges. A divided court could lead to a rejection of the law.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Government support for the law** (Strength: 9/10): The Israeli government has a strong interest in maintaining its power and control over the judiciary, which could lead to the High Court upholding the "reasonableness" law.
- **Reason 2: The law's alignment with the government's agenda** (Strength: 8/10): The "reasonableness" law aligns with the government's efforts to limit the power of the judiciary and consolidate its authority, which could lead to the court upholding the law.
- **Reason 3: The court's cautious approach** (Strength: 6/10): The Israeli High Court has been known to take a cautious approach when dealing with sensitive issues, which could lead to a more conservative decision in favor of the government.

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons in favor of the answer being "no" (upholding the petitions against the law) are more numerous and stronger, with a total strength of 23/40. The reasons in favor of the answer being "yes" (upholding the law) have a total strength of 23/40. However, the government's strong support for the law and its alignment with the government's agenda give it a slight edge.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the initial probability of the Israeli High Court upholding the "reasonableness" law to be 55.

6. Evaluation of confidence:
The calculated probability of 55 seems reasonable, considering the strength of the reasons on both sides. However, I did not consider the base rate of the event, which could be influenced by the Israeli High Court's past decisions and the country's judicial history.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate of the 2024 primary season, which is currently scheduled to take place on August 23, 2023, in Milwaukee, WI, as sanctioned by the Republican National Committee? If the debate's date is moved or cancelled, the question resolves based on whether Trump participates in the first debate of the 2024 presidential election season that is sanctioned by the Republican National Committee. If no debates are held, the question is annulled.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings out of 10):

- Trump's statement in July suggests he may not participate if he's leading in the polls, as he believes it's unfair to allow candidates with lower polling numbers to "pop him with questions." (Strength: 7)
- Trump's history of criticizing debates and questioning their usefulness in the past may indicate a general skepticism towards debates. (Strength: 6)
- Trump's current legal challenges and potential personal or professional distractions might lead him to prioritize other matters over participating in the debate. (Strength: 5)
- Trump's past behavior, such as skipping debates or events, may suggest he's willing to take risks and challenge conventional norms, which could lead him to opt out of the debate. (Strength: 7)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings out of 10):

- Trump's campaign might view participating in the debate as an opportunity to solidify his lead and maintain momentum in the primary. (Strength: 8)
- Trump's ability to control the narrative and respond to questions directly could help him maintain his lead and stay in the public eye. (Strength: 9)
- The debate might provide a platform for Trump to address his legal challenges and show the public that he's still a viable candidate. (Strength: 6)
- Trump's team might view participating in the debate as a way to demonstrate his commitment to the campaign and his supporters. (Strength: 7)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that Trump's past behavior, current lead in the polls, and potential benefits of participating in the debate (such as solidifying his lead and maintaining momentum) might outweigh his skepticism towards debates and potential distractions. However, his statement in July and history of criticizing debates are notable factors that could influence his decision.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Trump participating in the debate to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively confident, but it's not excessively so. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of a candidate participating in a debate) and the fact that Trump's behavior is often unpredictable. A more conservative approach might be to lower the initial probability.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the uncertainty and potential for Trump's behavior, I would adjust the initial probability downward to 40%. This accounts for the unpredictability of Trump's actions and the potential for him to surprise everyone by opting out of the debate.

Final prediction: *0.4*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Russian President Vladimir Putin attend the G20 summit in New Delhi, India, in person, on September 9-10, 2023, despite his forces invading Ukraine in 2022, as reported by CNBC, citing a Kremlin source? The answer should be based on credible media reports of his in-person attendance, and joining via video conference would not qualify as a positive resolution.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 8/10** International pressure and diplomatic isolation: Given the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the international community's criticism of Russia's actions, Putin might be hesitant to attend the G20 summit in person, which could be seen as a sign of weakness or an attempt to improve his image.
- **Strength: 6/10** Logistical concerns: The Indian government might be hesitant to host Putin in person, given the ongoing tensions between Russia and the West, which could lead to a low-key or even absent attendance.
- **Strength: 4/10** Personal health concerns: Putin's age and health issues might make him less likely to attend the summit in person, but this is speculative and not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 9/10** Economic interests: As a major player in the global economy, Russia might see the G20 summit as an opportunity to promote its economic interests, particularly in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
- **Strength: 7/10** Desire for legitimacy: Putin might want to attend the summit to demonstrate Russia's continued relevance on the world stage and to counter criticism from the international community.
- **Strength: 5/10** Diplomatic efforts: The Russian government might be seeking to engage in diplomatic efforts to ease tensions with the West, and attending the G20 summit could be a step in that direction.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, it seems that the economic interests and desire for legitimacy are strong motivators for Putin to attend the summit in person. However, the international pressure and diplomatic isolation might make him hesitant to do so. The logistical concerns and personal health issues are less significant factors in this context.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Putin attending the G20 summit in person as 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability might be slightly too high, given the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the international community's criticism of Russia's actions. However, the economic interests and desire for legitimacy are significant factors that could lead Putin to attend the summit. Considering the base rate of world leaders attending international summits, it's not uncommon for them to attend despite controversies. Therefore, the initial probability might be reasonable.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the New England Patriots advance to the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, considering the National Football League's playoff structure, where 7 teams from each conference earn positions in the playoffs, and only 4 teams from each conference advance to the divisional round? This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams that advance to the divisional round, according to the National Football League, and as No for the other teams. If the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled. The results on the respective game days will be used for resolution, and any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.

2. Reasons why the answer might be No (with strength ratings):

- The Patriots have a tough schedule in the 2023-2024 season, with several strong teams in their division and conference. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Patriots have had inconsistent performances in recent years, which may affect their chances of advancing to the divisional round. (Strength: 5/10)
- The team's depth and roster quality might not be sufficient to compete with top teams in the conference. (Strength: 4/10)
- Injuries to key players could significantly impact the team's performance and chances of advancing. (Strength: 7/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be Yes (with strength ratings):

- The Patriots have a strong coaching staff and a experienced quarterback, which could help them navigate the playoffs. (Strength: 8/10)
- The team has a good balance of offense and defense, which could be beneficial in the playoffs. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Patriots have a history of making deep playoff runs, which suggests they have the potential to advance to the divisional round. (Strength: 9/10)
- The team's strong team culture and leadership could help them perform well under pressure. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for both Yes and No, I would say that the Patriots have a good chance of advancing to the divisional round, but there are also some concerns. The team's strong coaching staff, quarterback, and team culture are major positives, but the tough schedule, inconsistent performances, and potential injuries are concerns. Overall, I would rate the Patriots' chances of advancing to the divisional round as around 60-70%.

5. Initial probability:

Based on my aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the Patriots advancing to the divisional round as 65.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

Upon further reflection, I think my initial probability might be a bit too high. While the Patriots have some strengths, their inconsistent performances and tough schedule are significant concerns. Additionally, the base rate of teams advancing to the divisional round is relatively low, as only 8 teams from each conference make it. Considering these factors, I might adjust my probability downwards.

7. Final prediction:

*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the New York Jets advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs, considering the 7 top-performing teams from each conference (AFC and NFC) that earn positions in the playoffs, and that the divisional round reduces the number of teams to 4, with the given fine print conditions (divisional round not held by April 1, 2024, or officially cancelled, and any rulings more than 24 hours after the game being disregarded for resolution)? 

Reasons why the answer might be no:
1. The New York Jets are a team with a history of inconsistent performance. They have struggled to win consistently, which makes it challenging for them to secure a spot in the playoffs. (Strength: 7/10)
2. The Jets have a tough division in the AFC East, with teams like the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins being strong contenders. This might make it difficult for the Jets to secure a top spot in their division. (Strength: 8/10)
3. The Jets' quarterback situation is uncertain, which can impact their performance and chances of making the playoffs. (Strength: 6/10)
4. Injuries to key players can significantly impact a team's performance, and the Jets might suffer from injuries that would hinder their chances of making the playoffs. (Strength: 5/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:
1. The Jets have shown improvement in recent years, and their young core of players has the potential to lead them to a successful season. (Strength: 8/10)
2. A strong coaching staff and a solid team strategy can make a significant difference in a team's performance, and the Jets have a good coaching staff. (Strength: 7/10)
3. The Jets have a relatively favorable schedule, which could help them secure more wins and a spot in the playoffs. (Strength: 6/10)
4. The Jets have made significant offseason moves to improve their roster, which could pay off in the 2024 season. (Strength: 8/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both yes and no, I would say that the Jets have a decent chance of making the playoffs, but it's not a certainty. The team's inconsistent performance, tough division, and uncertain quarterback situation are concerns, but their young core, strong coaching staff, favorable schedule, and offseason moves give them a chance to succeed.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of the calculated probability:
My initial probability of 40% seems too low, considering the Jets' potential for improvement and the favorable factors mentioned. I might have underestimated the team's chances.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will the Baltimore Ravens advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs, given the 32 teams in the National Football League are divided into 2 conferences (AFC and NFC), and 7 top-performing teams from each conference earn positions in the playoffs, reducing to 4 teams in the divisional round? This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams that advance to the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs and No for all other teams. If the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **Inconsistent Team Performance:** The Baltimore Ravens' performance may not meet the requirements to secure a spot in the playoffs, given the competitive nature of the league. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Injuries and Roster Issues:** The team may suffer significant injuries or roster issues that affect their ability to compete effectively in the regular season, making it difficult for them to secure a playoff spot. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Tough Schedule:** The Ravens may face a challenging schedule, with tough opponents and a demanding slate of games, which could impact their ability to secure a playoff spot. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Competition from Other Teams:** Other teams in the AFC North or other conferences may perform better, surpassing the Ravens in the standings and securing a playoff spot. (Strength: 8/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **Strong Team Performance:** The Ravens have a strong roster and coaching staff, which could lead to a successful regular season and a playoff spot. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Improved Offseason Moves:** The team may have made significant offseason moves, such as acquiring key players or improving their coaching staff, which could boost their chances of success. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Home-Field Advantage:** The Ravens play in a competitive division, but they may have a strong home-field advantage, which could help them secure wins and improve their chances of advancing to the divisional round. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Coaching Experience:** The team's head coach has experience leading the team to the playoffs, which could be an advantage in navigating the challenges of the regular season and playoffs. (Strength: 7/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Considering the reasons for both a Yes and No answer, I weigh the strengths of each reason. The Ravens' strong roster and coaching staff (8/10 and 7/10 respectively) and potential home-field advantage (5/10) suggest a strong chance of advancing to the divisional round. However, the Ravens' inconsistent team performance (6/10), tough schedule (7/10), and competition from other teams (8/10) suggest a more challenging path to the playoffs.

**Initial Probability:**

Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of the Baltimore Ravens advancing to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs as 62%.

**Evaluation and Refining the Probability:**

Considering the initial probability, I evaluate whether it is excessively confident or not confident enough. Given the competitive nature of the NFL and the many factors that can impact a team's performance, I believe the initial probability is not excessively confident. However, I also consider the base rate of the event, which is approximately 25% (8 teams out of 32). This suggests that the initial probability may be slightly overestimated.

**Final Prediction:**

*0.58*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.58
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the Cincinnati Bengals advance to the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, given that they are one of the 32 teams in the National Football League, and the divisional round is the second round of the playoffs, where 7 teams are reduced to 4, considering the fine print that if the divisional round is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled? The resolution criteria state that the question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League, and all other teams will resolve as No.

2. Reasons why the answer might be No (rated from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

* The Bengals have not consistently been a top-performing team in recent years, which might indicate a lack of strength in the team (6/10).
* The AFC North division is highly competitive, with teams like the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers also vying for a spot in the playoffs (7/10).
* The Bengals have had issues with injuries and player retention in the past, which could impact their performance (5/10).
* The Bengals will need to win at least one game in the playoffs to advance to the divisional round, which is a challenging task (8/10).
* The Bengals have not made significant improvements to their roster during the offseason (4/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be Yes (rated from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

* The Bengals have a strong young core of players, including quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (8/10).
* The Bengals have a solid coaching staff, led by head coach Zac Taylor (6/10).
* The Bengals have a relatively easy schedule in the first few weeks of the season, which could give them a chance to build momentum (5/10).
* The Bengals have made improvements to their defense during the offseason, which could help them compete with other top teams (7/10).
* The Bengals have a strong home-field advantage at Paul Brown Stadium (4/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, the Bengals have some strengths, but also some significant weaknesses. They have a strong young core of players, a solid coaching staff, and a relatively easy schedule in the first few weeks of the season. However, they also have a history of inconsistency, injuries, and a tough division. Given these factors, I would rate the likelihood of the Bengals advancing to the divisional round as around 40%.

5. Initial probability:

40

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:

My initial probability of 40% seems relatively low, considering the Bengals' strengths. However, I also considered the Bengals' weaknesses and the competitiveness of the AFC North division. Upon further reflection, I think the Bengals have a good chance of making the playoffs, but the divisional round is a challenging task. I would say that my initial probability is not excessively confident, but it might be not confident enough.

7. Final prediction:

*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Indianapolis Colts advance to the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs? This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams which advance to the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No. The divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs must be held by April 1, 2024, or be officially cancelled for this question to resolve. Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of a game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. The regular season will determine the 7 teams from each conference that advance to the playoffs. The Indianapolis Colts must be one of these 7 teams from the AFC conference. The Colts must then win their first-round playoff game to advance to the divisional round.

2. Reasons why the answer might be No:
- Reason 1: The Indianapolis Colts may not finish in the top 7 teams in the AFC conference, which would prevent them from advancing to the playoffs. (Strength: 80)
- Reason 2: The Colts may not win their first-round playoff game, which would prevent them from advancing to the divisional round. (Strength: 70)
- Reason 3: The Colts may be severely weakened by injuries or other factors, making it difficult for them to compete in the playoffs. (Strength: 40)
- Reason 4: The Colts may have a difficult schedule in the regular season, making it hard for them to accumulate enough wins to secure a playoff spot. (Strength: 50)

3. Reasons why the answer might be Yes:
- Reason 1: The Colts have a strong team with a good mix of offense and defense, which could help them compete in the playoffs. (Strength: 60)
- Reason 2: The Colts have a relatively easy schedule in the regular season, which could give them a chance to accumulate enough wins to secure a playoff spot. (Strength: 50)
- Reason 3: The Colts have a good coaching staff and front office, which could help them make the right decisions and prepare the team for the playoffs. (Strength: 40)
- Reason 4: The Colts have a strong fan base and home-field advantage, which could give them an edge in the playoffs. (Strength: 30)

4. Aggregated considerations:
- The Colts' chances of advancing to the divisional round are influenced by their performance in the regular season and their ability to win their first-round playoff game. The Colts have a strong team and a relatively easy schedule, which gives them a good chance of securing a playoff spot. However, they will face competition from other teams in the AFC conference, and injuries or other factors could weaken their chances.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the Colts' chances of advancing to the divisional round at 55%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 55% seems reasonable, but it may be too confident. The Colts' chances of advancing to the divisional round are influenced by many factors, including their performance in the regular season, their ability to win their first-round playoff game, and any potential injuries or other factors that may affect their chances. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of a team advancing to the divisional round), it is relatively low, which suggests that the initial probability of 55% may be too high.

7. Final prediction:
*0.4*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs, given that the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs will be held by January 12, 2024, and any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question? The National Football League consists of 32 teams, divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC, with 7 top-performing teams from each conference earning positions in the playoffs. The resolution criteria for this question are as follows: This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams that advance to the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No. If the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled. The question will close on January 15, 2024.

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
1. The Jacksonville Jaguars are a relatively new team with a relatively low Super Bowl win count (0), which could indicate they may not have the necessary experience to advance to the divisional round. (Strength: 4)
2. The Jaguars have had inconsistent performance in recent years, which may indicate a lack of stability and consistency that is necessary for a deep playoff run. (Strength: 5)
3. The Jaguars are in the AFC South division, which is considered one of the more competitive divisions in the NFL, making it difficult for them to secure a top spot in the conference. (Strength: 7)
4. The Jaguars have a tough schedule in the 2023-2024 season, with several difficult matchups against top teams, which could hinder their chances of advancing to the divisional round. (Strength: 6)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
1. The Jaguars have a strong young core of players, including quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who has shown significant improvement in recent seasons. (Strength: 8)
2. The Jaguars have a solid defense, which could help them compete with top teams in the conference. (Strength: 7)
3. The Jaguars have a good coaching staff, led by head coach Doug Pederson, who has experience in the NFL playoffs. (Strength: 6)
4. The Jaguars have a relatively favorable schedule in the first round of the playoffs, which could give them a good chance to advance to the divisional round. (Strength: 5)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I would rate the likelihood of the Jaguars advancing to the divisional round as follows: Strengths for a yes: 30 (8+7+6+5), Weaknesses for a no: 22 (4+5+7+6). This gives a net score of 8, indicating a slight leaning towards a yes.

Initial probability: 40 (Based on the net score of 8, I would estimate the probability of the Jaguars advancing to the divisional round as 40%)

Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 40% may be too low, considering the strengths of the Jaguars' young core, solid defense, and experienced coaching staff. However, the team's inconsistent performance in recent years and tough schedule in the 2023-2024 season may still be significant concerns. The base rate of teams advancing to the divisional round is relatively low, so the Jaguars would need to perform significantly better than average to reach this milestone.

Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Tennessee Titans advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? Given the National Football League's (NFL) playoff structure, where the top 7 teams from each conference qualify for the playoffs, and the divisional round reduces the 7 teams from each conference to 4, what is the likelihood that the Tennessee Titans will be among the 8 teams that advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs?

2. Reasons why the answer might be No (with strength ratings):
   - The Tennessee Titans have a relatively competitive division in the AFC South, which might hinder their chances of securing a top 4 seed in the AFC. (Strength: 6/10)
   - The Titans have struggled with injuries to key players in the past, which could impact their performance in the regular season and playoffs. (Strength: 7/10)
   - The Titans will face stiff competition from other strong teams in the AFC, such as the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills. (Strength: 8/10)
   - The NFL's playoff format can be unpredictable, with upsets occurring frequently. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be Yes (with strength ratings):
   - The Titans have a strong offense led by quarterback Ryan Tannehill, which could propel them to a successful regular season. (Strength: 8/10)
   - The Titans have a solid defense that can help them compete with top teams in the AFC. (Strength: 7/10)
   - The Titans have a relatively favorable schedule in the regular season, which could help them accumulate wins and secure a playoff spot. (Strength: 6/10)
   - The NFL's playoff format rewards teams that perform well in the regular season, and the Titans have shown the potential to do so. (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the Titans have a mix of strengths and weaknesses. Their strong offense and solid defense give them a good chance of competing with top teams in the AFC, but their division and the unpredictable nature of the playoffs could hinder their progress. The Titans' favorable schedule and the NFL's playoff format also work in their favor.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the Tennessee Titans advancing to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs as 55%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 55% seems reasonable, considering the Titans' strengths and weaknesses. However, it might be slightly too optimistic, as the NFL playoffs can be highly unpredictable. A more conservative approach might be warranted, taking into account the base rate of teams advancing to the divisional round (which is typically around 20-25% for a single team). This could bring the probability down to around 40-45%.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Denver Broncos advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs, given the National Football League's playoff structure, which involves two conferences (AFC and NFC) with seven teams each qualifying for the playoffs from the regular season? The divisional round typically reduces the number of teams from seven to four. Considering the Broncos' performance in the 2023-2024 regular season, will they secure one of the top seven spots in their conference to advance to the divisional round?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- The Denver Broncos have a history of inconsistent performance in recent years, which might affect their chances of making the playoffs (Strength: 6).
- The Broncos' schedule for the 2023-2024 season might be challenging, with tough matchups against top teams in their division (Strength: 5).
- Injuries to key players can significantly impact a team's performance, and the Broncos might suffer significant injuries during the season (Strength: 8).
- The Broncos' quarterback situation is uncertain, and a lack of a strong quarterback could hinder their chances of making the playoffs (Strength: 7).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- The Broncos have a strong defense, which could help them compete in the playoffs (Strength: 8).
- They have a solid running game, which can be a key factor in the NFL playoffs (Strength: 6).
- The Broncos have a relatively weak division, which could give them an advantage in terms of wins and playoff seeding (Strength: 9).
- They have a good coaching staff, which could help them make adjustments and capitalize on their strengths (Strength: 5).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, the Broncos' chances of advancing to the divisional round seem uncertain. Their strong defense and solid running game are positives, but their inconsistent performance in recent years, challenging schedule, quarterback uncertainty, and potential injuries are significant concerns. The relatively weak division and good coaching staff might help, but it's unclear whether these factors will be enough to propel them to the divisional round.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems relatively neutral, reflecting the mixed signals from the "yes" and "no" reasons. However, considering the base rate of NFL teams advancing to the divisional round (typically around 50-60%), the Broncos' chances might be slightly lower due to their inconsistent performance and quarterback uncertainty. Additionally, the NFL is a highly competitive league, and many factors can influence a team's chances. Therefore, the initial probability might be slightly too low.

7. Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Las Vegas Raiders advance to the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, given the National Football League's playoff structure and the specified resolution criteria, including the requirement for the divisional round to be held by April 1, 2024, or be officially cancelled? The resolution will be Yes for the 8 teams that advance to the divisional round and No for the remaining teams. If the divisional round is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.

2. Reasons why the answer might be No (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

   a. The Las Vegas Raiders might not perform well in their division, failing to secure a spot in the AFC playoffs. (Strength: 4)
   b. The team could suffer key injuries to crucial players, impacting their performance and chances of advancing in the playoffs. (Strength: 4)
   c. The Raiders might face strong competition from other top teams in the AFC, making it difficult for them to secure a spot in the divisional round. (Strength: 5)
   d. The team's coaching staff or front office might make poor decisions or have a lack of experience, hindering their chances of success in the playoffs. (Strength: 3)
   e. The Raiders could struggle with team chemistry or internal conflicts, affecting their ability to perform well in the playoffs. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be Yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

   a. The Raiders have a strong roster with talented players, which could give them an advantage in the playoffs. (Strength: 5)
   b. The team's coaching staff has experience and a good track record, which could help them make effective decisions and strategies in the playoffs. (Strength: 4)
   c. The Raiders have a solid defense and offense, which could allow them to compete with top teams in the AFC. (Strength: 4)
   d. The team has a good chance of winning their division, which would secure them a spot in the AFC playoffs. (Strength: 5)
   e. The Raiders have a strong home-field advantage at Allegiant Stadium, which could give them an edge in the playoffs. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both Yes and No, I think the Las Vegas Raiders have a good chance of advancing to the divisional round due to their strong roster, coaching staff, and home-field advantage. However, they also face stiff competition from other top teams in the AFC, and injuries or poor decision-making could hinder their chances. I would assign a moderate confidence level to the Raiders' chances.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation:
My initial probability might be considered somewhat conservative, given the Raiders' strong roster and coaching staff. However, the NFL playoffs are inherently unpredictable, and many factors can influence a team's chances. The base rate of teams advancing to the divisional round is around 25% (8/32 teams), so my initial probability is slightly higher than the base rate. I should consider this when refining my forecast.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Los Angeles Chargers advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? To answer this question, we need to consider the team's performance in the 2023-2024 regular season and the outcomes of their potential playoff games. The Los Angeles Chargers must finish among the top 7 teams in their conference to qualify for the divisional round. We will use the results of their regular season games and any subsequent playoff games to determine their chances of advancing to the divisional round. If the divisional round is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, this question will resolve as Annulled.

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Inconsistent performance**: The Chargers have had inconsistent performances in recent seasons, which may indicate that they struggle to maintain a high level of play throughout the season. (Strength: 3)
2. **Strong competition in the AFC West**: The AFC West is a competitive division, with teams like the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders. The Chargers may struggle to finish among the top 7 teams in the conference. (Strength: 4)
3. **Injuries to key players**: The Chargers have a history of injuries to key players, which can significantly impact their performance. If they suffer significant injuries, it may be difficult for them to advance to the divisional round. (Strength: 4)
4. **Poor coaching or front office decisions**: If the coaching staff or front office makes poor decisions, it can negatively impact the team's performance. (Strength: 2)
5. **Lack of depth**: The Chargers may not have sufficient depth on their roster, which can make it difficult for them to overcome injuries or other challenges. (Strength: 3)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Strong roster**: The Chargers have a talented roster, with players like Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen. (Strength: 5)
2. **Improved coaching**: The coaching staff has made improvements, and the team has a solid game plan. (Strength: 4)
3. **Competitive schedule**: The Chargers have a relatively favorable schedule, which can help them rack up wins. (Strength: 3)
4. **Experience in the playoffs**: The Chargers have experience in the playoffs, which can be beneficial in high-pressure situations. (Strength: 3)
5. **Team chemistry**: The team has good chemistry, which can help them perform well in close games. (Strength: 2)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, I believe that the Chargers have a moderate chance of advancing to the divisional round. Their strong roster and improved coaching are positives, but the competitive schedule, potential injuries, and lack of depth are concerns.

Initial probability: 45

Evaluation of confidence:
My initial probability of 45 seems relatively low, considering the Chargers' strong roster and improved coaching. However, the competitive schedule and potential injuries are significant concerns. The base rate of teams advancing to the divisional round is relatively low, as only 8 teams out of 32 teams in each conference make it to this round. This might make the Chargers' chances seem less likely.

Final prediction: *0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the New York Giants advance to the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, given the team's performance in the regular season and the outcome of the wild-card round of the playoffs? The NFL playoffs will culminate in the final game, the Super Bowl, with 32 teams divided into 2 conferences, the AFC and NFC, and 7 top-performing teams from each conference earning positions in the playoffs. The divisional round is the second round of the playoffs, where 7 teams are reduced to 4. This question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams that advance to the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No. If the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled. The results on the respective game days will be used for resolution, and any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.

2. Reasons why the answer might be No (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):
- The New York Giants have a relatively weak schedule in the 2023-2024 season, which might make it difficult for them to secure a top spot in the NFC East division (Strength: 4).
- The Giants have a history of inconsistent performance in the playoffs, which might affect their chances of advancing to the divisional round (Strength: 3).
- The NFC East division is highly competitive, with teams like the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys being strong contenders (Strength: 5).
- The Giants' quarterback situation is uncertain, which might impact their overall performance (Strength: 3).
- Injuries to key players can significantly impact a team's chances of advancing in the playoffs (Strength: 4).

3. Reasons why the answer might be Yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):
- The Giants have a strong defense, which can help them secure wins and advance in the playoffs (Strength: 4).
- They have a solid running game, which can provide a reliable source of scoring (Strength: 3).
- The Giants have a good coaching staff, which can help them make strategic decisions and adapt to different situations (Strength: 4).
- They have a relatively easy schedule in the first few weeks of the season, which can help them build momentum (Strength: 3).
- The Giants have a strong team culture, which can help them stay focused and motivated throughout the season (Strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons provided, the New York Giants face significant challenges in advancing to the divisional round, including a weak schedule, inconsistent playoff performance, and a competitive division. However, they also have some strengths, such as a strong defense and solid running game. Considering these factors, I would rate the likelihood of the Giants advancing to the divisional round as follows:
- Weaknesses: 20% (Giants' schedule, inconsistent playoff performance, competitive division, quarterback situation, and injury risk)
- Strengths: 15% (strong defense, solid running game, coaching staff, schedule, and team culture)
- Neutral factors: 65% (other teams' performance, injuries, and other external factors)

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the New York Giants advancing to the divisional round as 15%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 15% might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the Giants' strengths and the uncertainty of the NFL playoffs. The base rate of teams advancing to the divisional round is relatively low, but the Giants have a good chance of making it if they can overcome their weaknesses.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will the Washington Commanders advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs, assuming the divisional round is held and completed by April 1, 2024? The question is based on the 2023-2024 NFL season, and the resolution will be determined by the outcome of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs. The question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams that advance to the divisional round and No for all other teams. If the divisional round is not held or is officially cancelled by April 1, 2024, the question will resolve as Annulled.

2. Reasons why the answer might be No (with strength ratings):
    - The Washington Commanders have a relatively weak regular season record in recent years, which might indicate a low likelihood of advancing to the divisional round. (Strength: 6/10)
    - The Commanders are in the NFC East division, which is one of the more competitive divisions in the NFL, making it difficult for them to secure a top seed or a wild card spot. (Strength: 7/10)
    - The Commanders have a relatively weak schedule in the first half of the season, which might not prepare them well for the playoff environment. (Strength: 5/10)
    - Injuries to key players can significantly impact a team's chances of advancing to the divisional round. (Strength: 8/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be Yes (with strength ratings):
    - The Commanders have a strong offense led by quarterback Sam Howell, which could help them score points and win close games. (Strength: 7/10)
    - The Commanders have a solid defense that can compete with other top teams in the NFL. (Strength: 6/10)
    - The Commanders have a good coaching staff that can make strategic decisions and adjust to the team's strengths and weaknesses. (Strength: 5/10)
    - The Commanders have a relatively favorable schedule in the second half of the season, which could help them build momentum and secure a playoff spot. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
    The Commanders have some strengths, such as a strong offense and solid defense, but also have some weaknesses, such as a relatively weak regular season record and a competitive division. Considering the reasons provided, I would rate the likelihood of the Commanders advancing to the divisional round as follows:
    Strengths: 34% (average of 7/10 + 6/10 + 5/10 + 6/10)
    Weaknesses: 42% (average of 6/10 + 7/10 + 5/10 + 8/10)
    Neutral factors: 24% (average of 5/10 + 5/10 + 6/10)

5. Initial probability: 34%

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
    The initial probability of 34% seems relatively low, considering the Commanders have some strengths that could help them advance to the divisional round. However, the weaknesses and neutral factors also play a significant role in the evaluation. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of any team advancing to the divisional round), I would expect the probability to be higher, around 50-60%. Therefore, the initial probability might be too low.

7. Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Chicago Bears advance to the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, which is a part of the National Football League playoffs that involves the top 7 teams from each conference (AFC and NFC), culminating in the Super Bowl, the most-watched TV broadcast in the United States? The playoffs will consist of 7 rounds, with the divisional round being the second round, where 7 teams are reduced to 4. The question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams that advance to the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No. If the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled. The results on the respective game days will be used for resolution, and any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.

2. Reasons why the answer might be No:
- The Chicago Bears have not had a strong regular season in recent years, which might indicate a lack of competitiveness and a lower chance of advancing to the divisional round. (Strength: 6/10)
- The NFC North division is highly competitive, with teams like the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions potentially posing a strong challenge to the Bears. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Bears' quarterback situation has been a concern, with uncertainty surrounding the team's starter and depth at the position. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be Yes:
- The Chicago Bears have a strong defense, which has been a consistent strength of the team in recent years. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Bears have a solid running game, led by a talented running back, which could help them control the clock and limit opponents' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 6/10)
- The team has a good coaching staff, which could help them make adjustments and capitalize on opportunities to win close games. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against the Bears advancing to the divisional round, it seems that the team's strong defense and solid running game could be offset by their lack of competitiveness in recent years, quarterback uncertainty, and a tough division. However, the team's coaching staff and potential for making adjustments could be a wild card that could help them make a deep playoff run.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of the Chicago Bears advancing to the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs as 25%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 25% may be too low, considering the team's strong defense and solid running game. However, the lack of competitiveness in recent years and quarterback uncertainty are significant concerns that should not be overlooked. The base rate of NFL teams advancing to the divisional round is relatively low, with only 8 teams out of 32 making it to this round. This could affect the overall probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Minnesota Vikings advance to the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League's playoff format, where the divisional round is typically held after the wild card round and before the conference championships, and the results will be determined by the end of the 2023-2024 NFL regular season and playoffs, with a resolution deadline of January 15, 2024, or earlier if the divisional round is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled?

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. The Vikings' performance in the regular season might not be strong enough to secure a playoff spot, let alone a divisional round appearance (Strength: 4). 
2. Injuries to key players, such as quarterbacks or star wide receivers, could significantly impact the team's chances (Strength: 4).
3. The Vikings might struggle in their division, the NFC North, and finish with a poor record, making it difficult to secure a wild card spot (Strength: 4).
4. The Vikings could have a tough schedule in the second half of the season, with multiple games against strong opponents, which might affect their chances (Strength: 3).
5. The Vikings' coaching staff or front office might make strategic decisions that hinder the team's performance (Strength: 2).

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. The Vikings have a strong roster, with a talented quarterback and a solid defense, which could lead to a successful season (Strength: 5).
2. The Vikings have a relatively easy schedule in the first half of the season, which could help them build momentum and a strong record (Strength: 4).
3. The Vikings have a good track record in the playoffs, with a few deep runs in recent years, indicating they have the potential to make a deep postseason run (Strength: 4).
4. The Vikings' coaching staff and front office have made smart moves in the offseason, which could pay off in the regular season and playoffs (Strength: 3).
5. The Vikings have a strong team culture and a dedicated fan base, which could give them an edge in terms of motivation and performance (Strength: 2).

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the Vikings have a strong roster, a good schedule, and a good track record in the playoffs, which suggests they have a good chance of advancing to the divisional round. However, injuries, a tough schedule, and strategic decisions could hinder their chances. Overall, I would rate their chances of advancing to the divisional round as relatively high, but not extremely likely.

Initial probability: 65

Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 65 seems reasonable, considering the Vikings' strengths and weaknesses. However, it's worth noting that the NFL playoffs are inherently unpredictable, and a team's performance can vary greatly from one season to the next. Additionally, the Vikings are in a competitive division, which might affect their chances.

Final prediction: *0.63*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.63
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will the Atlanta Falcons advance to the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs? Given the information that 32 NFL teams are divided into two conferences, the AFC and NFC, with 7 teams from each conference qualifying for the playoffs based on their regular season performance, what is the likelihood that the Atlanta Falcons will be among the top 8 teams in their conference to advance to the divisional round?

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **Inconsistent Team Performance**: The Atlanta Falcons have had inconsistent performances in recent seasons, which might indicate a lack of stability and a high risk of failing to meet the required playoff standards. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Tough Competition in the NFC South**: The NFC South division is highly competitive, with teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, and Carolina Panthers posing significant challenges to the Falcons' playoff aspirations. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Injury Risks**: The NFL is a high-contact sport, and injuries can have a significant impact on a team's performance. If the Falcons suffer key injuries to key players, it could hinder their chances of making the playoffs. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Coaching and Roster Decisions**: The Falcons' coaching and roster decisions might not be optimal, which could affect their performance and chances of advancing to the divisional round. (Strength: 4/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **Improvement in the Offseason**: The Falcons might have made significant improvements to their roster and coaching staff during the offseason, which could lead to a better performance in the regular season. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Strong Team Chemistry**: The Falcons have a relatively young and talented team, which could lead to improved team chemistry and a higher likelihood of advancing to the divisional round. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Home-Field Advantage**: The Falcons play some of their home games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which has a strong home-field advantage. This could give them an edge in crucial games against divisional opponents. (Strength: 6/10)
4. **Coaching Experience**: The Falcons' head coach has experience in the NFL and might be able to lead the team to a successful season. (Strength: 5/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I would say that the Falcons' chances of advancing to the divisional round are relatively low, but not impossible. The team's inconsistent performance, tough competition in the NFC South, and injury risks are significant concerns. However, the potential improvements in the offseason, strong team chemistry, home-field advantage, and coaching experience might offset some of these concerns.

**Initial Probability:**

Based on my aggregated considerations, I would estimate the Falcons' chances of advancing to the divisional round at 22%.

**Evaluation of Confidence:**

Upon reviewing my initial probability, I realize that it might be too low. The Falcons have made significant improvements in the offseason, and their young talent could lead to a better performance. Additionally, the NFL is a highly unpredictable league, and upsets can occur frequently. Therefore, I might have been too conservative in my initial estimate.

**Final Prediction:**

*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Carolina Panthers advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs, which is scheduled to take place after the regular season, by the end of the divisional round? The regular season typically consists of 18 weeks, with the playoffs following immediately after. The divisional round is the second round of the playoffs and reduces the number of teams from 7 to 4 per conference. The Carolina Panthers must be one of the top 7 teams in their conference to advance to the divisional round. The question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams that advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No. If the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.

2. Reasons why the answer might be No:
- Reason 1: The Carolina Panthers have not been as strong in recent years, and their current roster may not be sufficient to compete with other top teams in the NFC. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: The NFC is a highly competitive conference, with several strong teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, and Dallas Cowboys. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 3: The Panthers' schedule for the upcoming season may be challenging, with tough matchups against top teams in the NFC. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be Yes:
- Reason 1: The Carolina Panthers have a talented young quarterback in Baker Mayfield, who could lead the team to a strong season. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 2: The Panthers have made some key offseason signings and draft picks, which could improve their chances of making the playoffs. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 3: The NFC South is a relatively weak division, which could give the Panthers an opportunity to win their division and earn a spot in the playoffs. (Strength: 9/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Panthers' recent performance and roster strength are concerns, but they also have some positive factors working in their favor, such as a talented quarterback and a relatively weak division. The NFC is highly competitive, but the Panthers have a chance to compete with other teams in the conference.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Panthers advancing to the divisional round at 40%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability is relatively low, but it may be too conservative given the Panthers' positive factors. I did not consider the base rate of teams advancing to the divisional round, which is around 25% for each team. This means that the Panthers have a slightly higher chance of advancing than the average team.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the New Orleans Saints advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? The question will resolve as Yes for the 8 teams that advance to the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, according to the National Football League. All other teams will resolve as No. If the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled. The results on the respective game days will be used for resolution, and any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question. The question is valid from August 12, 2023, to January 15, 2024.

2. Reasons why the answer might be No (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The New Orleans Saints have a challenging schedule in the 2023-2024 season, with tough opponents in their division and a lack of depth in certain positions (Strength: 3).
- The Saints have struggled with injuries in previous seasons, which could impact their performance in the playoffs (Strength: 3).
- The NFC South division is highly competitive, with teams like the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers also vying for a spot in the playoffs (Strength: 4).
- The Saints have not made significant offseason moves to improve their roster, which could hinder their chances (Strength: 2).
- The NFL playoffs are inherently unpredictable, and upsets can occur (Strength: 5).

3. Reasons why the answer might be Yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Saints have a strong quarterback in Drew Brees' successor, who has shown promise in preseason games (Strength: 3).
- The Saints have a solid defense, which could help them compete with top teams in the NFC (Strength: 4).
- The Saints have a good chance of winning their division, which would secure a spot in the playoffs (Strength: 4).
- The Saints have a strong coaching staff, which could help them make adjustments and prepare for the playoffs (Strength: 3).
- The Saints have a good chance of getting a high seed in the NFC, which would give them a better chance of advancing to the divisional round (Strength: 5).

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons for the answer being No are mostly related to the Saints' performance and the competitiveness of the NFC South. The reasons for the answer being Yes are related to the Saints' strengths, such as their quarterback, defense, coaching staff, and potential for a high seed. Considering these factors, it seems that the Saints have a decent chance of advancing to the divisional round, but the competition in the NFC South and the unpredictability of the playoffs make it a challenging task.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems relatively low, considering the Saints' strengths. However, the NFL playoffs are inherently unpredictable, and the competition in the NFC South is fierce. The base rate of teams advancing to the divisional round is relatively low, as only 8 teams out of 32 make it to this round. Considering these factors, the initial probability might be too low.

7. Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Arizona Cardinals advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs, given the current NFL playoff structure, which consists of 32 teams divided into two conferences (AFC and NFC), with 7 top teams from each conference earning positions in the playoffs? The playoffs will culminate in the Super Bowl, and the divisional round reduces the number of teams from 7 to 4. If the divisional round is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled. The results of the respective games will be used for resolution, and any NFL rulings made more than 24 hours after the game will be disregarded. The Arizona Cardinals must meet the criteria to advance to the divisional round, which is a challenging feat considering the competitive nature of the NFL playoffs.

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. The Arizona Cardinals' performance in the regular season might not be strong enough to secure a spot in the top 7 teams in the NFC. (Strength: 4)
2. The Cardinals might face a tough schedule in the playoffs, including potential matchups against top-ranked teams. (Strength: 3)
3. Injuries to key players could significantly impact the team's performance in the playoffs. (Strength: 4)
4. The Cardinals might struggle to contain strong opposing offenses in the playoffs. (Strength: 3)
5. The Cardinals' defense might not be able to maintain a high level of performance throughout the playoffs. (Strength: 3)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. The Arizona Cardinals have a strong offense, which could carry them through the playoffs. (Strength: 4)
2. The team has made significant improvements in the offseason, which could lead to a strong regular season and playoff run. (Strength: 4)
3. The Cardinals have a solid defense, which could help them contain opposing offenses in the playoffs. (Strength: 3)
4. The team's coaching staff has experience in the playoffs and could make strategic decisions to help the team advance. (Strength: 3)
5. The Cardinals have a strong team culture, which could give them an edge in the playoffs. (Strength: 2)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the Arizona Cardinals have a good chance of advancing to the divisional round, but there are also several factors that could work against them. The strength of their offense and recent improvements in the offseason are significant advantages, but the potential for injuries, tough matchups, and defensive struggles could hinder their progress.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems reasonable, given the balanced analysis of the factors that could influence the Arizona Cardinals' chances of advancing to the divisional round. However, it's worth considering the base rate of teams advancing to the divisional round, which is typically around 8 teams (7 from each conference). This might suggest that the probability should be higher, as the Cardinals have a decent chance of meeting the criteria.

Reevaluation of probability:
Considering the base rate of teams advancing to the divisional round, I would increase the probability to 50. This takes into account the Cardinals' strengths and weaknesses, as well as the competitive nature of the NFL playoffs.

Final prediction: *0.5*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.5
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the San Francisco 49ers advance to the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, given the current information available up to August 12, 2023? This question will resolve as "Yes" if the San Francisco 49ers are among the 8 teams that advance to the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, as determined by the National Football League (NFL). The question will resolve as "No" if the 49ers do not advance to the divisional round. If the divisional round is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, the question will resolve as "Annulled." Any rulings by the NFL occurring more than 24 hours after the end of the game will be disregarded for the resolution of this question.

2. Reasons why the answer might be No:

- Reason 1: The San Francisco 49ers' performance in the regular season may not be strong enough to secure a playoff spot. (Strength: 6/10) 
- Reason 2: Injuries to key players could significantly impact the team's performance. (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 3: The 49ers may struggle against other strong teams in their division, making it difficult to secure a playoff spot. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 4: The 49ers may not be able to overcome the competition from other teams in the NFC, which could lead to a weaker record and a lower playoff seeding. (Strength: 6/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be Yes:

- Reason 1: The San Francisco 49ers have a strong team with a good balance of offense and defense, which could lead to a strong regular season record and a playoff spot. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: The 49ers have a good coaching staff and a strong quarterback, which could lead to consistent performance and a high playoff seeding. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: The 49ers have a strong roster with talented players, which could lead to a successful regular season and a playoff spot. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 4: The 49ers have a good team culture and a strong work ethic, which could lead to a strong regular season record and a playoff spot. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Based on the reasons provided, the balance of evidence suggests that the San Francisco 49ers have a good chance of advancing to the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs. However, there are also potential risks and challenges that could impact their performance. Overall, I would rate the likelihood of the 49ers advancing to the divisional round as 65%.

5. Initial probability:

65

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:

The calculated probability of 65% may be considered somewhat conservative, given the strengths of the San Francisco 49ers' team. However, it is also important to consider the base rate of the event, which is that only 8 teams out of 32 will advance to the divisional round. This means that the probability of any given team advancing to the divisional round is relatively low, even for strong teams like the 49ers.

7. Final prediction:

*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Seattle Seahawks advance to the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs, given the standard NFL playoff structure, which includes two conferences (AFC and NFC) with 7 teams from each conference qualifying for the playoffs, and the divisional round reducing the 7 teams from each conference to 4, resulting in a total of 4 teams advancing to the next round from each conference? The resolution criteria for this question will be based on the official NFL playoff results, and if the divisional round is not held by April 1, 2024, or is officially cancelled, all teams will resolve as Annulled.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- The Seattle Seahawks' performance in the 2023-2024 regular season might not be strong enough to secure a top 7 spot in the NFC. (Strength: 6)
- The Seahawks might lose in the wild-card round of the playoffs, which would prevent them from advancing to the divisional round. (Strength: 5)
- Other teams in the NFC, such as the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, or Dallas Cowboys, might perform exceptionally well and take the top spots in the NFC, leaving the Seahawks out of the divisional round. (Strength: 8)
- Injuries to key players, such as the quarterback or star wide receivers, could significantly impact the team's performance and prevent them from advancing. (Strength: 4)
- The Seahawks might struggle with consistency and have a weaker schedule in the second half of the season, which could affect their playoff seeding. (Strength: 7)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- The Seattle Seahawks have a strong team with a good balance of offense and defense, which could help them secure a top 7 spot in the NFC. (Strength: 9)
- They have a talented young quarterback in Geno Smith, who could lead the team to victories and playoff success. (Strength: 8)
- The Seahawks have a solid coaching staff and a good team culture, which could help them perform well in the playoffs. (Strength: 6)
- They have a relatively easy schedule in the first half of the season, which could give them a strong foundation for the playoffs. (Strength: 5)
- The Seahawks have made significant roster improvements during the offseason, which could help them compete with top teams in the NFC. (Strength: 7)

4. Aggregated considerations:
After considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, I believe that the Seahawks have a good chance of advancing to the divisional round, but there are also several factors that could prevent them from doing so. The strength of the NFC and the potential for injuries or inconsistent performance are significant concerns. However, the Seahawks' strong team balance, talented quarterback, and solid coaching staff give them a good foundation for success.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of the Seattle Seahawks advancing to the divisional round of the 2023-2024 NFL playoffs to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of confidence and base rate:
My initial probability of 60% seems relatively moderate, but I should consider the base rate of NFL teams advancing to the divisional round. Typically, about 50% of teams that make the playoffs advance to the divisional round. However, this is not a hard and fast rule, and many factors can influence a team's chances. I should also consider that my initial probability might be overly influenced by the Seahawks' strengths, and I should be more cautious in my assessment.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the state of emergency declared by President Lasso in Ecuador on August 9, 2023, in response to recent violence and the murder of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, be extended beyond the initial 60 days scheduled to end on October 9, 2023, as reported by credible sources before October 10, 2023? This question considers the current state of emergency in Ecuador, which was declared due to rising violence and homicides, and the upcoming snap elections scheduled for August 20, 2023, and potential runoff on October 15, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be No:
- Reason 1: The Ecuadorian government might focus on ensuring the success of the snap elections and the subsequent presidential transition process, potentially leading to a shift in priorities away from extending the state of emergency. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: The government might choose to end the state of emergency to demonstrate a return to normalcy and stability ahead of the elections, which could be seen as a positive signal to voters. (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 3: The opposition parties might not support extending the state of emergency, and the government might not have the necessary votes to override their opposition. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be Yes:
- Reason 1: The recent increase in violence and homicides in Ecuador, including the murder of a presidential candidate, might lead the government to consider extending the state of emergency to maintain public safety and order. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: The government might view the state of emergency as a necessary measure to prevent further violence and maintain stability during a critical period, including the elections and potential runoff. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: President Lasso might choose to extend the state of emergency to maintain his executive powers and influence during the transition period. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the most significant factor is the recent increase in violence and homicides in Ecuador, which might lead the government to extend the state of emergency. The opposition's potential opposition and the government's focus on the elections are also relevant factors, but their impact is less certain.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would assign an initial probability of 60% that the state of emergency will be extended beyond the initial 60 days.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability might be considered not confident enough, given the significant factors pointing towards an extension of the state of emergency. However, the opposition's potential opposition and the government's focus on the elections introduce uncertainty. Considering the base rate of state of emergency extensions in similar situations, it is not excessively confident.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election scheduled for August 20, 2023, according to the final results as first reported directly by the National Electoral Council of Ecuador or via secondary credible sources? If final official results are not reported before October 1, 2023, this question will be annulled.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Unpredictability of Ecuadorian Politics** (Strength: 6/10): Ecuadorian politics has been marked by significant turmoil, including the recent dissolution of the National Assembly and the declaration of a state of emergency after a presidential candidate's murder. This environment can make it difficult to predict the outcome of the election.
- **Reason 2: Presence of Other Strong Candidates** (Strength: 5/10): Although Luisa González is currently in the lead, there may be other strong candidates in the running who could potentially overtake her. Without recent polls, it's difficult to gauge the level of support for these candidates.
- **Reason 3: Voter Sentiment and Mobilization** (Strength: 4/10): The recent rise in violence and the state of emergency may have shifted voter sentiment, potentially affecting the outcome of the election.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Current Polling** (Strength: 8/10): Although the most recent polls were conducted before the murder of Fernando Villavicencio, Luisa González was still in the lead. This suggests that she may have a strong base of support.
- **Reason 2: Party Affiliation and Experience** (Strength: 7/10): As a candidate from the Citizen Revolution Movement party, González may benefit from her party's existing infrastructure and support base, which could give her an advantage in the election.
- **Reason 3: National Mood** (Strength: 6/10): The recent violence and instability may have galvanized public opinion around certain candidates, and González may be seen as a strong alternative to the current government.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that the likelihood of Luisa González receiving the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election is uncertain. However, the current polling and her party affiliation suggest that she may have a strong chance of success.

5. Initial probability:
60

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the uncertainty surrounding the election outcome. However, it may be on the lower end, as the current polling and González's party affiliation suggest a higher likelihood of her success. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a candidate receiving the most votes in a first-round election), this probability may be conservative.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will Luisa González win the 2023 Ecuadorian presidential election, which is scheduled to take place on Sunday, August 20, 2023? This question is specific to the presidential election and does not include other general election outcomes. The candidates running for the presidency include Bolívar Armijos (AMIGO Movement), Luisa González (Citizen's Revolution Movement), Xavier Hervas (RETO Movement), Daniel Noboa Azín (ADN alliance), Yaku Pérez Guartambel (Claro Que Se Puede alliance and Pachakutik), Otto Sonnenholzner (Actuemos alliance and Democratic Left), and Jan Topić (Por Un País Sin Miedo alliance). The question will be resolved based on credible sources' reporting of the election results. If the election does not occur by the end of 2023, or if it is impossible to determine the result before January 1, 2024, all subquestions will be annulled. If someone other than the listed candidates is elected, all subquestions will resolve as No.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):**

1. **Competition from other strong candidates**: The Ecuadorian presidential election features a diverse range of candidates, including experienced politicians and well-known figures. This competition may make it challenging for Luisa González to secure a majority of votes. (Strength: 4)
2. **Lack of information about Luisa González**: Compared to other candidates, there is limited information available about Luisa González's background, policies, and campaign strategy. This lack of transparency might make it difficult for voters to make informed decisions. (Strength: 3)
3. **Ecuador's complex political landscape**: Ecuador has a history of political instability and polarization, which can lead to unpredictable election outcomes. This complexity might make it challenging for any candidate to secure a decisive victory. (Strength: 4)
4. **Fernando Villavicencio's assassination**: The assassination of Fernando Villavicencio, another candidate, might have altered the dynamics of the election. It is unclear how this event will impact the remaining candidates, including Luisa González. (Strength: 3)
5. **Uncertainty about voter preferences**: Ecuadorian voters may be uncertain about their preferences, which can lead to a divided vote and a potential upset. (Strength: 2)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):**

1. **Luisa González's popularity**: Luisa González has gained significant attention and support from various sectors of Ecuadorian society, which could translate into a strong voter base. (Strength: 4)
2. **Citizen's Revolution Movement's momentum**: The Citizen's Revolution Movement, led by Luisa González, has been gaining momentum in recent months, which could indicate a strong grassroots support for the candidate. (Strength: 4)
3. **Lack of a clear frontrunner**: With multiple strong candidates in the running, it is possible that Luisa González could capitalize on the lack of a clear frontrunner and secure a surprise victory. (Strength: 3)
4. **Ecuador's growing dissatisfaction with the current government**: Ecuadorians may be seeking change, which could lead to a shift in support towards a new candidate like Luisa González. (Strength: 3)
5. **Luisa González's unique appeal**: Luisa González's background and policies may resonate with a significant portion of Ecuadorian voters, potentially giving her an edge in the election. (Strength: 2)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

After considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, I believe that the election is too uncertain to make a definitive prediction. However, based on the available information, Luisa González's popularity and the momentum of the Citizen's Revolution Movement suggest that she has a strong chance of winning. On the other hand, the competition from other candidates and the complex Ecuadorian political landscape make it difficult to predict a clear victory.

**Initial Probability: 55**

**Evaluation and Final Prediction:**

Upon re-evaluation, I realize that my initial probability might be too low, given Luisa González's popularity and the momentum of the Citizen's Revolution Movement. However, I also acknowledge that the competition and Ecuador's complex political landscape make it challenging to predict a clear victory. Considering the base rate of presidential election outcomes, which is typically around 50%, I adjust my initial probability to a more conservative estimate.

**Final Prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Daniel Noboa Azín win Ecuador's 2023 presidential election, which is scheduled to take place on August 20, 2023? This question will resolve based on credible sources' reporting of the election results. If the election does not occur by the end of 2023 or it is impossible to know the result before January 1, 2024, all subquestions will be annulled. If someone other than the listed candidates is elected, all subquestions will resolve as No. If a candidate wins the election according to credible sources prior to official vote counts being finalized, and later official results report a different winner due to a recount or legal disputes, the question will be re-resolved to the final results.

Reasons why the answer might be No:

1. Daniel Noboa Azín is a relatively new figure in Ecuadorian politics, and his "ADN" alliance may not have a strong enough presence to secure a majority of the votes. (Strength: 6/10)
2. The Ecuadorian presidential election is highly competitive, with several strong candidates from various parties and alliances. This may make it difficult for Daniel Noboa Azín to emerge as the clear winner. (Strength: 7/10)
3. Ecuador's electoral landscape is often influenced by factors such as economic conditions, social issues, and regional support, which may not favor Daniel Noboa Azín's candidacy. (Strength: 5/10)

Reasons why the answer might be Yes:

1. Daniel Noboa Azín has the backing of the "ADN" alliance, which has a significant presence in Ecuadorian politics. This may give him an advantage in terms of resources and organization. (Strength: 8/10)
2. Noboa Azín's campaign has been gaining momentum, and he has been actively engaging with voters and addressing key issues. This could help him build a strong base of support. (Strength: 7/10)
3. Ecuador's economic situation may be a key factor in the election, and Noboa Azín's campaign has focused on economic issues. If the economy is a top concern for voters, he may be well-positioned to capitalize on this. (Strength: 6/10)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for both a Yes and No answer, I believe that Daniel Noboa Azín has a decent chance of winning the election, but there are also significant challenges and uncertainties. His relatively new status in Ecuadorian politics and the competitive nature of the election are concerns. However, his alliance with "ADN" and his campaign's momentum are positives. I will assign a moderate probability to his win.

Initial probability: 42

Evaluation of initial probability:

My initial probability of 42 seems relatively moderate, but it may be too low given the relatively strong reasons for a Yes answer. I should consider the base rate of the event, which is that a candidate winning a presidential election is not a rare event. However, the Ecuadorian presidential election is highly competitive, and the outcome is far from certain. I will consider these factors in my final prediction.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will Christian Zurita win Ecuador's 2023 presidential election?

This question is about the outcome of the presidential election in Ecuador, which is scheduled to take place on August 20, 2023. The question will resolve based on the official results of the election, and not on any preliminary or unofficial counts. If the election is postponed or canceled, or if it is impossible to determine the winner by January 1, 2024, all subquestions will be annulled. Additionally, if someone other than the listed candidates is elected, all subquestions will resolve as No. The question will be re-resolved if credible sources report a different winner prior to the official vote counts being finalized.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):**

1. **Divided opposition (Strength: 4)**: The opposition in Ecuador is divided among several candidates, which might make it difficult for any one candidate to win a majority of the vote. This could lead to a runoff election or a victory for the incumbent or another candidate.
2. **Economic challenges (Strength: 3)**: Ecuador is facing economic challenges, including high inflation and a struggling economy. This might make it difficult for any candidate to win the election, especially if they are seen as unable to address these issues.
3. **Populist sentiment (Strength: 2)**: There is a strong populist sentiment in Ecuador, which might make it difficult for a candidate who is seen as too establishment or tied to the current government to win the election.
4. **External factors (Strength: 1)**: External factors, such as global economic trends or international events, might affect the outcome of the election.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):**

1. **Strong campaign (Strength: 4)**: Christian Zurita has a strong campaign and a clear platform, which might help him win the election.
2. **Support from key groups (Strength: 3)**: Zurita has support from key groups, such as indigenous communities and some business leaders, which might give him an advantage in the election.
3. **Incumbent's unpopularity (Strength: 2)**: The current president of Ecuador is unpopular, which might make it easier for a challenger like Zurita to win the election.
4. **Zurita's experience (Strength: 1)**: Zurita has experience in politics and has held various public offices, which might make him a more attractive candidate to voters.

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Based on the reasons above, I think that Christian Zurita has a moderate chance of winning the election. While there are some challenges facing him, such as the divided opposition and economic challenges, he has some advantages, such as a strong campaign and support from key groups. I will take a more nuanced view of the situation and assign a probability that reflects the balance of these factors.

**Initial Probability: 45**

**Evaluation of Confidence:**

My initial probability of 45 is based on a rough estimate of the balance of factors. However, I should note that this is a relatively high-stakes election, and there are many uncertainties involved. I might be underestimating or overestimating the importance of certain factors. I should also consider the base rate of presidential election upsets, which is relatively low. However, I do not have a strong enough basis to adjust my probability significantly.

**Final Prediction: *0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the WHO list BA.2.86 as a "Variant of Interest" before October 1, 2023, based on the criteria that it has genetic changes affecting virus characteristics such as transmissibility, virulence, antibody evasion, susceptibility to therapeutics, and detectability, and identified to have a growth advantage over other circulating variants in more than one WHO region with increasing relative prevalence alongside increasing number of cases over time, or other apparent epidemiological impacts suggesting an emerging risk to global public health, before the question close date of September 30, 2023?

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. The WHO has only recently labeled BA.2.86 as a "Variant Under Monitoring" and may need more time to assess its characteristics and impact. (Strength: 4)
2. The limited number of sequences available for BA.2.86 (only 3) may hinder the WHO's ability to make a definitive assessment of its characteristics and potential impact. (Strength: 4)
3. The WHO may be cautious in designating a new variant as a "Variant of Interest" due to the potential for overreaction and unnecessary public concern. (Strength: 3)
4. The current global situation with SARS-CoV-2 may not be conducive to a new variant of concern, with many countries having relaxed their COVID-19 measures and vaccination rates high in many areas. (Strength: 2)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. The large number of mutations (34) in the spike gene of BA.2.86 compared to BA.2, which is similar to the number of mutations seen between the original omicron (BA.1) and the ancestral Wuhan strain, may indicate a potential growth advantage. (Strength: 5)
2. The fact that BA.2.86 has been detected in three continents suggests a potential for rapid spread. (Strength: 4)
3. The WHO has a history of designating new variants as "Variants of Interest" when they have a potential impact on public health, and BA.2.86's characteristics may warrant such a designation. (Strength: 4)
4. The WHO's designation of BA.2.86 as a "Variant Under Monitoring" indicates that they are closely watching its development and may upgrade its status to "Variant of Interest" if it meets the necessary criteria. (Strength: 3)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I believe that the WHO is likely to list BA.2.86 as a "Variant of Interest" before October 1, 2023. The large number of mutations in the spike gene and the detection of BA.2.86 in three continents suggest a potential growth advantage, which is a key criterion for designation as a "Variant of Interest." However, the limited number of sequences available and the WHO's cautious approach to designating new variants as "Variants of Interest" may temper this likelihood.

Initial probability: 70

Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 70 may be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully capture the potential implications of the large number of mutations in the spike gene and the detection of BA.2.86 in three continents. However, it also acknowledges the limitations in the available data and the WHO's cautious approach to designating new variants.

Final prediction: *0.85*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.85
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will a non-proprietary large language model (LLM) be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023, according to the leaderboard's ranking system based on user ratings and the Elo rating system, considering the current ranking of proprietary models as of August 22, 2023, and the non-proprietary models currently ranked below them?

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 8/10):

1. **Current ranking of proprietary models**: As of August 22, 2023, all the top 5 models are proprietary, which suggests that non-proprietary models have not yet reached the same level of performance or user recognition. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Proprietary models' strong performance**: Proprietary models like GPT-4 and Claude-1 have high Elo ratings, indicating their strong performance and user ratings. This might make it difficult for non-proprietary models to surpass them in the ranking. (Strength: 7.5/10)
3. **Competition from new proprietary models**: New proprietary models might be developed and released between August 22 and September 30, 2023, which could further strengthen the hold of proprietary models on the top 5 spots. (Strength: 6.5/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 5/10):

1. **Potential for non-proprietary models to improve**: Non-proprietary models like Vicuna-33B, Vicuna-13B, MPT-30B-chat, WizardLM-13B-v1.1, and Guanaco-33B might receive updates or improvements that enhance their performance and user ratings, potentially allowing them to surpass proprietary models. (Strength: 5/10)
2. **User ratings can change**: User ratings can fluctuate based on various factors, and non-proprietary models might receive more positive ratings due to factors like better documentation, community engagement, or improved performance on specific tasks. (Strength: 4.5/10)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the current ranking of proprietary models, their strong performance, and the potential for new proprietary models to be released, the likelihood of a non-proprietary model being in the top 5 seems low. However, the potential for non-proprietary models to improve and user ratings to change provides a glimmer of hope. Overall, the balance of evidence suggests that the answer is more likely to be no.

Initial probability: 25

Evaluation of initial probability:

The initial probability of 25 might be considered too low, given the potential for non-proprietary models to improve and user ratings to change. However, the current ranking of proprietary models and their strong performance make it challenging for non-proprietary models to surpass them.

Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed dead by credible sources before November 1, 2023, due to any cause, or will he make a public appearance or have his health or whereabouts confirmed before that date?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1 to 10, with 1 being the weakest and 10 being the strongest):
- Prigozhin might have survived the plane crash and be in hiding or under protection (8/10). Given the circumstances, it's possible that he could have survived and avoided detection or capture.
- The crash might have been staged or faked, and Prigozhin could be alive (6/10). Although this is a less likely scenario, it's not impossible, especially considering the complex nature of the conflict in Ukraine.
- Russian authorities or Wagner Group might be withholding information about Prigozhin's fate to maintain control or avoid panic (5/10). This is a plausible scenario, but it's difficult to assess the likelihood without more information.
- Prigozhin might have had a prior plan to fake his own death or create a diversion (4/10). While this is possible, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where he would fake his own death without any apparent motive.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1 to 10, with 1 being the weakest and 10 being the strongest):
- The Russian aviation authorities have confirmed that all 10 people on the plane were killed, and eight bodies have been recovered (9/10). This suggests a high likelihood of a fatal outcome for Prigozhin.
- The plane crash was a significant event, and it's unlikely that Prigozhin would have survived (8/10). Given the severity of the crash, it's probable that he did not survive.
- There have been no credible reports of Prigozhin making a public appearance or being spotted since the crash (7/10). This lack of information suggests that he might be deceased.
- The Russian media have reported on the crash and the recovery of bodies, which implies a high level of confidence in the outcome (6/10). The fact that the media have reported on the incident suggests that the Russian authorities are treating it as a confirmed event.

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons for the answer being "no" are plausible but less convincing than the reasons for the answer being "yes." The lack of credible reports of Prigozhin's survival and the confirmation of the plane crash by Russian authorities make it more likely that he is deceased.

5. Initial probability: 80

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident. The base rate of plane crashes being fatal is relatively high, and the fact that Prigozhin was on the plane increases the likelihood of a fatal outcome. However, the possibility of Prigozhin surviving or faking his own death cannot be entirely ruled out.

7. Final prediction: *0.7*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability receive unrestricted access to the requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden's Ukraine dealings before September 1st, 2023, as requested by Chairman James Comer? This includes access to unredacted documents, communications, and specific records such as those in Case Number 2023-0022-F, pseudonym-protected documents, communications involving Hunter Biden, Eric Schwerin, or Devon Archer, and drafts of then-Vice President Joe Biden's speech delivered to the Ukrainian Rada in December 2015. The Committee's investigation aims to address potential deficiencies in ethics laws and disclosure of financial interests related to the immediate family of Vice Presidents and Presidents.

2. Reasons why the answer might be "no" (with strength ratings from 1 to 10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- The National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) might deny the request due to potential national security concerns or privacy issues (Strength: 8)
- The Biden administration might resist releasing the records to avoid political backlash and potential embarrassment (Strength: 7)
- The records might be heavily redacted or classified, limiting the Committee's access (Strength: 6)
- The Committee might not have the necessary authority or jurisdiction to request these specific records (Strength: 4)
- The request might be bogged down in bureaucratic red tape, delaying the release of the records (Strength: 5)

3. Reasons why the answer might be "yes" (with strength ratings from 1 to 10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- Chairman James Comer has a strong track record of pursuing investigations and obtaining records (Strength: 9)
- The Committee has evidence suggesting potential wrongdoing, which could motivate the release of the records (Strength: 8)
- The Biden administration might be more willing to release records to demonstrate transparency and cooperation (Strength: 7)
- The Committee has the authority to request these records under the Presidential Records Act (Strength: 6)
- The public and media pressure might force the release of the records (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I weigh the strengths and weaknesses. The Committee's strong track record and evidence of potential wrongdoing give them a significant advantage. However, the potential for national security concerns, bureaucratic delays, and resistance from the Biden administration could hinder the release of the records.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I estimate the probability of the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability receiving unrestricted access to the requested Joe Biden records before September 1st, 2023, as 62%.

6. Evaluation of confidence:
My initial probability might be too confident, as it's based on a relatively narrow set of factors. I should consider the base rate of the event (i.e., the frequency of successful record releases in similar cases) and the potential for unexpected events or developments that could affect the outcome. To be more conservative, I should reduce my initial probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Javier Milei win the 2023 Argentine presidential election, which is scheduled to be held on October 22, 2023, given that he placed first in the August 13th primary with over 30% of the total votes, and considering the current candidates and their positions on the economy, such as Sergio Massa, the current Minister of Economy, who is the main 'unity' candidate for the Peronist coalition's Union por la Patria grouping, and Patricia Bullrich, a former security minister, representing the more conservative wing of the center-right Together for Change coalition? This question resolves as Yes for Javier Milei if he wins the election, and as No for all other candidates. It will resolve on the basis of credible sources reporting the election results. The question is Annulled if the election is postponed past 2023 or otherwise cancelled.

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Strong party machine behind Sergio Massa**: The Peronist coalition has a strong party machine and a long history of winning elections in Argentina. Massa's position as the main 'unity' candidate for the coalition gives him a significant advantage. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Conservative opposition bloc**: The Together for Change coalition, led by Patricia Bullrich, is a strong opposition force in Argentina, and Bullrich's tough-on-crime and austerity measures might appeal to a significant portion of the electorate. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Economic challenges**: Argentina's economy is facing significant challenges, including high inflation and dwindling reserves. The next president will need to address these issues, and it's unclear whether Milei's radical proposals will be effective or appealing to voters. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Milei's unorthodox style**: Milei's unconventional approach to politics, including his histrionics and rock songs, might not appeal to all voters, especially those who prefer more traditional politicians. (Strength: 4/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Surprising primary result**: Milei's strong showing in the primary election suggests that he has significant support among voters who are dissatisfied with the traditional politicians and their policies. (Strength: 9/10)
2. **Anti-establishment sentiment**: Argentina has a history of anti-establishment sentiment, and Milei's message of change and reform might resonate with voters who feel that the current system is not working for them. (Strength: 8/10)
3. **Economic dissatisfaction**: The current economic situation in Argentina is dire, and voters might be willing to take a chance on a radical solution, such as dollarization and shrinking the state, if they believe it will bring about improvement. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Milei's economic expertise**: As an economist, Milei might be seen as a credible alternative to Massa, who has been criticized for his handling of the economy. (Strength: 6/10)

Aggregated considerations:

Milei's strong primary result and the anti-establishment sentiment in Argentina are significant advantages for him. However, the strong party machine behind Massa and the conservative opposition bloc, as well as the economic challenges facing the country, are significant obstacles. Additionally, Milei's unorthodox style and radical proposals might not appeal to all voters.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of the initial probability:

The initial probability of 40% might be too low, considering Milei's strong primary result and the anti-establishment sentiment in Argentina. However, it's also important to consider the strong party machine behind Massa and the conservative opposition bloc, which might make it difficult for Milei to win. Additionally, the economic challenges facing the country are significant, and voters might be hesitant to take a chance on a radical solution.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Sergio Massa win the 2023 Argentine presidential election, which is scheduled to be held on October 22, 2023, considering the current political landscape and recent primary election results? This question resolves as Yes for Sergio Massa if he wins the election, and as No for all other candidates. The question is Annulled if the election is postponed past 2023 or otherwise cancelled.

Reasons why the answer might be No:

1. **Javier Milei's strong primary performance**: Milei's surprise win in the August 13th primary with >30% of the total votes indicates a significant level of support among Argentine voters, which could translate to a strong challenge for Massa in the general election. (Strength: 7/10)
2. **Conservative opposition bloc's strength**: The conservative opposition bloc, represented by Patricia Bullrich, is seen as a strong contender, and their candidate may be able to capitalize on voter dissatisfaction with the current economic situation. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Voter dissatisfaction with the current economic situation**: Argentina's high inflation rate (116%) and dwindling reserves under Massa's watch may lead voters to seek alternative candidates who promise more drastic solutions, such as Milei's proposal to dollarize the economy. (Strength: 8/10)
4. **Divisions within the Peronist coalition**: Massa's mixed relationship with the left-wing of the coalition may hinder his ability to unite the party and secure a decisive victory. (Strength: 5/10)

Reasons why the answer might be Yes:

1. **Massa's popularity**: Massa is the single most popular candidate in most opinion polls, indicating a strong foundation of support. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Peronist coalition's overall strength**: Although the coalition is seen as being behind the conservative opposition bloc, it still has a significant following and may be able to mobilize its supporters to secure a win for Massa. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Massa's pragmatism**: As a centrist and a pragmatist, Massa may be able to appeal to a broad range of voters and navigate the complexities of Argentine politics more effectively than his opponents. (Strength: 6/10)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for both a Yes and No answer, I would rate the strength of the reasons as follows:

* Reasons for a Yes answer: 7.8/10 (average of 8, 7, and 6)
* Reasons for a No answer: 6.7/10 (average of 7, 6, and 5)

Given these considerations, I would initially predict that Sergio Massa will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election with a probability of 62%.

Evaluation of initial probability:

My initial probability of 62% seems reasonable, considering the strength of the reasons for both a Yes and No answer. However, I may be underestimating the potential impact of voter dissatisfaction with the current economic situation, which could lead to a higher probability of a No answer. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of Massa winning the election without any additional information) is difficult to estimate, but it is likely to be lower than 50% given the competitive nature of the election.

Final prediction:

*0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2023 Argentine presidential election, which is scheduled to take place on October 22, 2023? The election outcome will be based on the results from the general election, and the question resolves as Yes if Patricia Bullrich is declared the winner, and as No for all other candidates. The question will be annulled if the election is postponed past 2023 or otherwise cancelled. The question's close date is November 19, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be No (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Patricia Bullrich faces a tough competition from the main conservative opposition bloc, which might hinder her chances of winning (Strength: 3).
- Patricia Bullrich's conservative stance might not appeal to the majority of voters who are looking for a more centrist or left-wing candidate (Strength: 3).
- Patricia Bullrich's economic proposals, such as removing capital controls and cutting spending, might be too drastic for some voters (Strength: 2).
- Patricia Bullrich's lack of popularity compared to Sergio Massa, the main Peronist candidate, might make it difficult for her to win (Strength: 4).

3. Reasons why the answer might be Yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Patricia Bullrich's conservative stance might appeal to voters who are looking for a tough-on-crime approach and economic stability (Strength: 3).
- Patricia Bullrich's experience as a former security minister might give her an edge in terms of leadership and crisis management (Strength: 4).
- Patricia Bullrich's economic proposals might appeal to voters who are looking for a more business-friendly environment (Strength: 2).
- Patricia Bullrich's campaign might gain momentum in the remaining months leading up to the election (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided above, Patricia Bullrich's chances of winning the election seem to be lower than those of Sergio Massa, the main Peronist candidate. However, Patricia Bullrich's conservative stance and experience as a former security minister might appeal to a significant portion of the voters. The election outcome will depend on various factors, including the campaign strategies of the candidates, voter turnout, and the overall economic situation in Argentina.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate Patricia Bullrich's chances of winning the election to be around 15%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems to be relatively low, considering the information provided. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is the probability of a candidate winning the election without any additional information. In this case, the base rate is unknown, but it's likely to be low, given the competitive nature of the election. Therefore, the initial probability might be considered not confident enough.

7. Final prediction:
*0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Juan Schiaretti win the 2023 Argentine presidential election, which is scheduled to take place on October 22, 2023? This question resolves as Yes if Juan Schiaretti is announced as the winner of the election by credible sources, and as No for all other outcomes. The question is Annulled if the election is postponed past 2023 or otherwise cancelled. If the election is simply moved backwards or forwards within 2023, this question resolves as outlined above.

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Juan Schiaretti is not mentioned in the provided information**: There is no mention of Juan Schiaretti in the original text, which suggests that he might not be a prominent candidate in the election. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **The primary election results favor other candidates**: Javier Milei has already placed first in the August 13th primary election with over 30% of the total votes, which might indicate that he has a strong chance of winning the presidential election. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Sergio Massa is the distant favorite to win the nomination**: Massa is considered the main 'unity' candidate for the Peronist coalition and is seen as the favorite to win the nomination, which might give him an advantage in the election. (Strength: 6/10)
4. **The conservative opposition bloc is strong**: The conservative opposition bloc is seen as the main opposition to the Peronist coalition, and their candidate, Patricia Bullrich, might have a strong chance of winning the election. (Strength: 5/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Juan Schiaretti's name is mentioned as a possible candidate**: Although Juan Schiaretti is not mentioned in the original text, it's possible that he might be a candidate in the election, and his name being mentioned suggests that he might have a chance of winning. (Strength: 3/10)
2. **Anything can happen in an election**: In any election, there are always surprises and unexpected outcomes, and it's possible that Juan Schiaretti might win the election despite the current polls and primary results. (Strength: 2/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the information provided and the reasons above, it seems that Juan Schiaretti is not a prominent candidate in the election, and the primary results favor other candidates. However, anything can happen in an election, and there is a small chance that Juan Schiaretti might win.

Initial probability: 2

This probability seems too low, as it doesn't take into account the fact that Juan Schiaretti is not a prominent candidate in the election. A more reasonable initial probability would be 0.5, which reflects the uncertainty and lack of information about Juan Schiaretti's chances.

Final probability: *0.05*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.05
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Myriam Bregman win the 2023 Argentine presidential election, which is scheduled to take place on October 22, 2023? The election is a crucial event in Argentina's political landscape, with several prominent candidates vying for the top spot, including Sergio Massa, Patricia Bullrich, Javier Milei, and potentially others. Myriam Bregman is not mentioned as one of the main candidates in the provided Reuters overview. However, given the question's structure, it is likely that the question is asking about the possibility of any candidate other than those mentioned winning the election. If that's the case, the question can be rephrased as:

Will a candidate other than Sergio Massa, Patricia Bullrich, or Javier Milei win the 2023 Argentine presidential election?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 8/10**: The current frontrunners, Sergio Massa and Javier Milei, have a significant lead in the polls, making it challenging for other candidates to catch up. Patricia Bullrich is also a strong contender, and her conservative wing of the center-right coalition might gain support.
- **Strength: 6/10**: Myriam Bregman is not mentioned in the provided overview as a prominent candidate, which might indicate a lack of significant support or a lower profile in the election.
- **Strength: 5/10**: The primary election results showed Javier Milei's surprise performance, but it's uncertain whether this momentum will translate to the general election.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 4/10**: The Argentine political landscape is known for its unpredictability, and unexpected events can occur, potentially leading to an upset.
- **Strength: 3/10**: Myriam Bregman might have a strong grassroots movement or a unique platform that resonates with voters, potentially gaining her a significant following.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strength of the main candidates, the unpredictability of the Argentine political landscape, and the lack of information about Myriam Bregman's chances, I would rate the likelihood of a candidate other than Sergio Massa, Patricia Bullrich, or Javier Milei winning the election as relatively low.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of a candidate other than Sergio Massa, Patricia Bullrich, or Javier Milei winning the 2023 Argentine presidential election as 20%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively low, considering the strength of the main candidates. However, the unpredictability of the Argentine political landscape and the lack of information about other candidates might justify a lower confidence level. It's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is the probability of any candidate other than the mentioned three winning the election. This base rate is difficult to estimate without more information.

7. Final prediction:
Given the considerations above, I would slightly increase the initial probability to account for the unpredictability of the Argentine political landscape. However, I would still maintain a relatively low confidence level due to the strength of the main candidates. The final prediction is:

*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Chevron and Offshore Alliance reach a credible agreement before September 25, 2023, that either avoids the commencement of industrial actions scheduled to begin on September 7, 2023, or ends the industrial actions if they have already commenced, affecting three Chevron sites in Western Australia: Gorgon, Wheatstone downstream, and Wheatstone platform facilities? The agreement must be announced, not necessarily ratified, and can be a result of negotiations between the parties or mediated by a third party. A delay in the commencement of industrial actions until after September 25, 2023, will also be considered a resolution. 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strongest to weakest):
- **Reason 1: History of labor disputes** (Strength: 8/10): Offshore Alliance has announced industrial actions, and the history of labor disputes suggests that agreements are often reached after strikes or actions have commenced. This pattern may indicate a high likelihood of industrial actions proceeding as planned.
- **Reason 2: Union's decision to notify Chevron** (Strength: 6/10): The Offshore Alliance has already notified Chevron of their intention to go ahead with industrial actions, suggesting that they are committed to their plans. This may indicate that the union is less likely to back down.
- **Reason 3: Potential economic consequences** (Strength: 4/10): Both sides may be aware of the potential economic consequences of industrial actions, including losses for Chevron and potential disruptions to the local economy. This may motivate them to reach an agreement, but it's not a strong motivator in this specific situation.
- **Reason 4: Government involvement** (Strength: 2/10): There is no indication that the government will intervene to resolve the dispute, which reduces the likelihood of an agreement being reached through external mediation.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strongest to weakest):
- **Reason 1: Timeframe for negotiations** (Strength: 9/10): There are approximately 18 days between the announcement of industrial actions and the deadline of September 25, 2023, which provides sufficient time for negotiations and potential agreements.
- **Reason 2: Economic incentives** (Strength: 7/10): Both parties may be motivated to reach an agreement to avoid losses and potential damage to their reputation.
- **Reason 3: Union's goals** (Strength: 5/10): The Offshore Alliance may be seeking improvements in working conditions or benefits, and an agreement could be reached if Chevron is willing to compromise on these issues.
- **Reason 4: Government pressure** (Strength: 3/10): While there is no indication of government intervention, the Australian government may still exert pressure on the parties to reach an agreement to avoid disruptions to the economy.

4. Aggregated considerations: 
The history of labor disputes and the union's decision to notify Chevron suggest a higher likelihood of industrial actions proceeding as planned. However, the timeframe for negotiations and economic incentives may motivate the parties to reach an agreement. The union's goals and potential government pressure also provide some motivation for an agreement. Considering these factors, the likelihood of an agreement being reached before September 25, 2023, is moderate.

5. Initial probability: 45

6. Evaluation of initial probability: 
The initial probability of 45 may be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the potential for negotiations and compromise. However, it also does not overestimate the likelihood of an agreement being reached, considering the history of labor disputes and the union's commitment to their plans.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will France intervene militarily in Gabon by January 1, 2024, to counter the coup led by the Gabonese military, following the election victory of President Ali Bongo, given the current tensions and the country's history as a former French colony? This intervention could include sending French soldiers, providing military aid to other organizations like ECOWAS, or supporting a transition of power in Gabon.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- France's adjusted foreign policy towards its former colonies might lead to a more cautious approach, prioritizing diplomatic efforts over military intervention (Strength: 4).
- France has been involved in several military interventions in Africa in the past, but it might be hesitant to repeat this pattern, especially given the current global economic and geopolitical climate (Strength: 4).
- The African Union and other regional organizations, like ECOWAS, might be better equipped to handle the situation, reducing the need for French military intervention (Strength: 3).
- France's military might be preoccupied with other pressing issues, such as the situation in Mali or the Sahel region, limiting its ability to intervene in Gabon (Strength: 3).
- The international community might be focused on other pressing global issues, such as the conflict in Ukraine or the Middle East, potentially diverting attention and resources away from the Gabonese situation (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- France has a historical responsibility towards its former colonies, which might lead to a sense of obligation to intervene in Gabon (Strength: 4).
- The European Union and other international organizations might pressure France to take a more active role in resolving the crisis in Gabon (Strength: 3).
- France has a significant military presence in the region, which could facilitate a rapid and effective intervention (Strength: 3).
- The Gabonese military's actions might be seen as a threat to regional stability, prompting France to take a more assertive stance (Strength: 2).
- France might be concerned about the potential for China or other external powers to exploit the situation in Gabon, leading it to intervene to maintain its influence in the region (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the balance of evidence suggests that France might be inclined to intervene militarily in Gabon, but the factors against intervention are significant. The historical responsibility towards its former colonies and the potential for regional instability weigh in favor of intervention, while the cautious approach to foreign policy and the potential for other international priorities to divert attention and resources argue against it.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of France intervening militarily in Gabon by January 1, 2024, to be around 40.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 might be considered not confident enough, given the significant historical and regional factors that suggest France might intervene. However, the cautious approach to foreign policy and the potential for other international priorities to divert attention and resources should not be underestimated. The base rate of military interventions by France in its former colonies is relatively low, which might also influence the probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will General Brice Oligui Nguema be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023, following the disputed re-election of President Ali Bongo Ondimba and the ongoing coup in Gabon, as reported by the BBC, where the army has replaced Mr. Bongo with General Brice Oligui Nguema as the head of the presidential guard?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 6/10**: There might be a possibility of a counter-coup or a reversal of the current situation, potentially leading to General Brice Oligui Nguema no longer being in power.
- **Strength: 5/10**: The situation in Gabon is still unfolding, and it's possible that the international community or other factions within the country might intervene, potentially altering the current power dynamics.
- **Strength: 4/10**: General Brice Oligui Nguema might not be able to consolidate his power or maintain control over the country, leading to a change in the de facto leader.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 9/10**: As reported by the BBC, the army has already replaced President Ali Bongo Ondimba with General Brice Oligui Nguema, indicating a significant shift in power.
- **Strength: 8/10**: The fact that the army is involved in the coup suggests that General Brice Oligui Nguema has significant backing and control over the military, making it likely that he will remain in power.
- **Strength: 7/10**: The disputed re-election of President Ali Bongo Ondimba created a power vacuum, which General Brice Oligui Nguema has taken advantage of, increasing the likelihood that he will remain in power.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Taking into account the reasons provided above, it seems that the likelihood of General Brice Oligui Nguema being the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023, is higher than the likelihood of him not being in power. However, there are still some uncertainties and potential challenges that could affect the situation.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be around 80.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 80 seems relatively high, considering the uncertainties and potential challenges mentioned above. However, it's also based on the current information available, which suggests a significant shift in power in favor of General Brice Oligui Nguema. Considering the base rate of coups and power changes in African countries, the probability might be slightly lower. However, the specific circumstances in Gabon, including the disputed re-election and the involvement of the army, increase the likelihood of a change in leadership.

7. Final prediction:
*0.7*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will President Ali Bongo Ondimba be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023, following the ongoing coup in the country, where the army has replaced him with General Brice Oligui Nguema as the head of the presidential guard, and considering the disputed re-election of President Ali Bongo Ondimba over his primary challenger Albert Ondo Ossa, according to the BBC, which has an ongoing simple guide to the Gabon coup?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reason 1: The army has already replaced President Ali Bongo Ondimba with General Brice Oligui Nguema as the head of the presidential guard, which could indicate a significant shift in power. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: The disputed re-election of President Ali Bongo Ondimba may not be widely recognized as legitimate, potentially weakening his claim to the presidency. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: The ongoing coup in Gabon may result in a power vacuum or a prolonged period of instability, potentially leading to a change in leadership. (Strength: 6/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Reason 1: The fact that the army has not explicitly stated that President Ali Bongo Ondimba is no longer the leader of Gabon, and he may still maintain some level of influence or support. (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 2: The disputed re-election of President Ali Bongo Ondimba may still be recognized by some international bodies or domestic stakeholders, potentially maintaining his claim to the presidency. (Strength: 4/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the balance of evidence suggests that President Ali Bongo Ondimba is unlikely to be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023. The army's replacement of him with General Brice Oligui Nguema as the head of the presidential guard and the disputed nature of his re-election weigh heavily against his continued leadership.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of President Ali Bongo Ondimba being the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023, to be around 20%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 20% seems relatively low, given the disputed nature of the re-election and the army's replacement of President Ali Bongo Ondimba. However, considering the complexities of the situation and the potential for various stakeholders to maintain their claims to power, the probability may be more nuanced. The base rate of coups in Gabon is relatively low, which could also affect the forecast.

7. Final prediction:
*0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Albert Ondo Ossa be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023, according to credible sources? This question will resolve Yes if credible sources confirm Albert Ondo Ossa as the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023. It will resolve No for all other individuals. If there is no consensus on the current de facto leader of Gabon, all sub-questions will resolve No.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 8/10**: Albert Ondo Ossa might not be the de facto leader due to the ongoing coup, and the army replacing President Ali Bongo with General Brice Oligui Nguema. This could indicate that Albert Ondo Ossa's claim to the presidency is not currently recognized by the military.
- **Strength: 6/10**: The situation in Gabon is complex, and it might take time for Albert Ondo Ossa to consolidate power, making it unlikely he will be the de facto leader on September 30, 2023.
- **Strength: 4/10**: The information available might not be up-to-date, and there could be other factors at play that are not currently known to the public, which could affect Albert Ondo Ossa's chances of becoming the de facto leader.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 9/10**: Albert Ondo Ossa was the primary challenger to President Ali Bongo in the disputed election, which suggests he has significant support and a strong claim to the presidency. This could lead to him becoming the de facto leader if the coup is successful and he is able to consolidate power.
- **Strength: 7/10**: The fact that the army has replaced President Ali Bongo with General Brice Oligui Nguema might be a sign of a power struggle, which could ultimately lead to Albert Ondo Ossa taking the reins.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the information provided, it seems that Albert Ondo Ossa has a strong claim to the presidency, but the situation in Gabon is complex, and the coup is still ongoing. The fact that the army has replaced President Ali Bongo with General Brice Oligui Nguema adds uncertainty to the situation. However, this could also be a sign of a power struggle, which might ultimately lead to Albert Ondo Ossa becoming the de facto leader.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Albert Ondo Ossa being the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023, to be 60.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, considering the complexity of the situation in Gabon and the ongoing coup. However, it might be too low, as Albert Ondo Ossa's strong claim to the presidency and the potential for a power struggle could increase his chances of becoming the de facto leader.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the United Auto Workers (UAW) union call a strike against one or more of the Big Three Detroit automakers (General Motors, Ford, or Stellantis) before September 19, 2023, given that the existing UAW contracts with the Big Three expire at 11:59 PM on September 14, and a strike authorization vote has been passed with near universal approval from the 150,000 union workers at the Big Three, but does not guarantee a strike will be called?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The UAW might reach a last-minute agreement with one or more of the Big Three automakers, avoiding a strike. (Strength: 4)
- The UAW might decide that the benefits of a strike do not outweigh the costs, given the current economic climate and the potential impact on their members. (Strength: 3)
- The UAW might be satisfied with the current negotiations and not feel that a strike is necessary to achieve their goals. (Strength: 2)
- The UAW might face internal divisions or disagreements among its members, making it difficult to call a strike. (Strength: 2)
- The Big Three automakers might make significant concessions or offers that the UAW finds acceptable, reducing the likelihood of a strike. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The UAW has passed a strike authorization vote with near universal approval from its members, indicating a strong willingness to take action if necessary. (Strength: 5)
- The UAW has a history of calling strikes when they feel that their members' interests are not being represented, and the current negotiations might not be meeting their expectations. (Strength: 4)
- The UAW might feel that the current economic climate and the automakers' profits justify a strike to improve wages and benefits for its members. (Strength: 4)
- The UAW might be seeking significant concessions from the Big Three, and negotiations might break down if they are not met. (Strength: 3)
- The UAW might be trying to maintain its bargaining power and leverage by calling a strike, even if it's not their first choice. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons provided, the main factors influencing the outcome are the UAW's willingness to strike, the current negotiations, and the potential concessions from the Big Three automakers. The UAW's strike authorization vote and history of calling strikes suggest a strong likelihood of a strike, but the potential for last-minute agreements, internal divisions, and concessions from the Big Three automakers might reduce the likelihood.

5. Initial probability:

Given the considerations above, I would estimate the initial probability of the UAW calling a strike before September 19, 2023, as 60.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:

The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, but it might be too high given the potential for last-minute agreements and concessions from the Big Three automakers. The base rate of the event (i.e., the frequency of strikes in similar situations) is not provided, but it's essential to consider that the UAW has a history of calling strikes when necessary. However, the current economic climate and the automakers' profits might influence the UAW's decision.

7. Final prediction:

*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023, considering the following criteria:
- The bill is introduced after September 7, 2023.
- The bill would give precedence to the name Bharat, either by making it the primary official name, or by making it the name used in most aspects of governance while still keeping India as an official name, or by removing India as an official name and leaving Bharat as the only official name.

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Lack of concrete evidence**: Despite the rumors and the government's special session of parliament, there is no concrete evidence that a bill to change the country's name is being prepared or will be introduced. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Potential opposition from other parties**: The move to change the country's name might face opposition from other parties in the parliament, which could hinder the introduction of a bill. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Constitutional implications**: Changing the official name of the country might have significant constitutional implications, which could be a complex and time-consuming process. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Prioritization of other legislative agendas**: The government might prioritize other legislative agendas over the name change, especially if they are more pressing or have a higher priority. (Strength: 6/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Indian Prime Minister's preference**: The Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has previously referred to the country as Bharat, suggesting a personal preference for the name. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Hindu nationalist sentiment**: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has a strong Hindu nationalist ideology, and changing the country's name to Bharat might be seen as a way to emphasize this aspect of Indian identity. (Strength: 9/10)
3. **Government's special session of parliament**: The government has called a special session of parliament, which could be an opportunity to introduce a bill to change the country's name. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **News18's report**: News18 reported that unnamed government sources said BJP lawmakers would put forward a special resolution to give precedence to the name Bharat, which could be a credible source of information. (Strength: 8/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against, it seems that the momentum is in favor of the bill being introduced. The Indian Prime Minister's preference for the name Bharat, the Hindu nationalist sentiment, and the government's special session of parliament all point towards a possible bill introduction. However, the lack of concrete evidence, potential opposition from other parties, and constitutional implications might slow down the process.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, but it might be too high given the lack of concrete evidence and potential opposition. The base rate of the event is also not known, but it's likely to be low given the complexity of changing a country's official name. Considering these factors, the probability might be adjusted downward.

Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approve a US spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) by January 1, 2024? The approval would allow a US-based ETF directly tracking the price of Ethereum, enabling conventional retail investors to gain straightforward exposure to this emergent digital asset by trading on public stock exchanges like existing ETFs. This development would be a significant milestone for the increased mainstream and institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, potentially leading to a substantial increase in investment flows and a subsequent rise in Ethereum prices.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The SEC has historically been cautious in approving cryptocurrency-related products, and it may take more time to develop a framework for a spot ETF (Strength: 4)
- The SEC may be concerned about the lack of regulatory clarity around cryptocurrency spot markets, which could make it challenging to approve a spot ETF (Strength: 4)
- The SEC might require additional information or changes to the proposed ETF structure before approving it (Strength: 3)
- The ETF applicant may withdraw their application or experience delays in the approval process (Strength: 2)
- The SEC's priorities may shift to other regulatory matters, potentially delaying the approval of the ETF (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The SEC has shown a willingness to approve cryptocurrency-related products, such as Bitcoin futures ETFs (Strength: 4)
- The growing demand for Ethereum exposure and the potential benefits of a spot ETF for investors may lead to increased pressure on the SEC to approve the application (Strength: 4)
- The ETF applicant, such as ARK Invest, has a strong track record and may have a well-structured proposal that addresses the SEC's concerns (Strength: 3)
- The SEC may be more open to approving a spot ETF as the regulatory framework for cryptocurrency markets continues to evolve (Strength: 3)
- The approval of a spot ETF could bring significant benefits to the cryptocurrency market, including increased adoption and investment flows, which may motivate the SEC to approve the application (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The SEC's cautious approach to approving cryptocurrency-related products and the lack of regulatory clarity around spot markets are significant concerns. However, the growing demand for Ethereum exposure and the potential benefits of a spot ETF for investors may lead to increased pressure on the SEC to approve the application. The ETF applicant's strong track record and well-structured proposal may also contribute to a positive outcome. Considering these factors, the balance of evidence suggests that the SEC may approve a US spot Ethereum ETF, but it's uncertain.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the mixed signals from the SEC and the complexities of regulatory approval. However, it may be too optimistic, considering the SEC's cautious approach to approving cryptocurrency-related products. The base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of the SEC approving a spot ETF in any given year) is likely low, which should temper the initial probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Black Sea Grain Initiative be reinstated before October 1, 2023, as reported by credible sources, with both Ukraine and Russia agreeing to the reinstatement, and the agreement starting before October 1, 2023?

Reasons why the answer might be no:
1. **Russian demands not met**: Russia has been demanding that Western nations lift restrictions on banking and logistics before rejoining the agreement. If these demands are not met, Russia may continue to withhold its participation, making the reinstatement unlikely. Strength: 7/10.
2. **Lack of progress in negotiations**: The negotiations between Turkey, Russia, and the UN have been ongoing, but there has been no significant progress reported. If the negotiations stall or reach an impasse, the reinstatement may not occur. Strength: 6/10.
3. **Ukrainian concerns about Russia's participation**: Ukraine has expressed concerns about Russia's intentions and the terms of the agreement. If Ukraine is not satisfied with the terms, it may not agree to the reinstatement. Strength: 5/10.
4. **Global politics and geopolitics**: The situation is highly politicized, and the reinstatement may be influenced by broader geopolitical considerations. If the global situation changes, it may impact the likelihood of the reinstatement. Strength: 4/10.

Reasons why the answer might be yes:
1. **Economic pressure**: The reinstatement of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is crucial for global food security and the economies of Ukraine and Russia. Economic pressure from countries dependent on Ukrainian grain exports may lead to a compromise. Strength: 8/10.
2. **Turkey's efforts**: Turkey has been actively mediating the negotiations and has a strong interest in reviving the agreement. If Turkey's efforts are successful, the reinstatement may occur. Strength: 7/10.
3. **UN involvement**: The UN has been facilitating the negotiations and has a strong interest in reviving the agreement. If the UN can facilitate a compromise, the reinstatement may occur. Strength: 6/10.
4. **Short-term benefits**: The reinstatement of the agreement would provide short-term benefits for global food security and the economies of Ukraine and Russia. This may create an incentive for both parties to reach a compromise. Strength: 5/10.

Aggregate considerations:
The reasons for a "no" answer are significant, but the reasons for a "yes" answer are also substantial. The economic pressure and Turkey's efforts may lead to a compromise, but the lack of progress in negotiations and Ukrainian concerns about Russia's participation may hinder the reinstatement. The global politics and geopolitics also add uncertainty to the situation.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation:
The calculated probability of 40% seems relatively low, given the significant economic and global implications of the reinstatement. However, the lack of progress in negotiations and the concerns about Russia's participation may justify this estimate. Considering the base rate of international agreements being reached, the probability might be lower than expected.

Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Donald Trump participate in the second Republican presidential debate sanctioned by the Republican National Committee, which is scheduled to take place on September 27th, 2023, or a subsequent debate if the original date is moved or the debate is cancelled, before the question is annulled on September 28th, 2023?

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Loss of momentum**: Trump's decision to skip the first debate may have cost him some support, and participating in the second debate may not be enough to regain the momentum he had earlier. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Alternative media opportunities**: Trump has already used alternative platforms like Tucker Carlson's interview on X (Twitter) to stay in the spotlight, and he may not see the second debate as a necessary step to maintain his visibility. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Risk of further scrutiny**: By participating in the debate, Trump may face more intense scrutiny and criticism from moderators and other candidates, which could further erode his support. (Strength: 4/10)
4. **Trump's past behavior**: Trump has a history of skipping debates or events when he feels he's ahead or when the stakes are low, which could indicate a pattern of behavior that may continue in the second debate. (Strength: 7/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Desire to maintain frontrunner status**: Trump may still see the value in participating in the debate to maintain his position as the frontrunner and to prevent other candidates from gaining traction. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Need to address criticisms**: Trump may feel the need to address criticisms and concerns raised during the first debate and use the second debate as an opportunity to clarify his positions and respond to his opponents. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Pressure from party leaders**: The Republican National Committee or other party leaders may pressure Trump to participate in the debate to maintain party unity and avoid a perception of him being out of touch with the party. (Strength: 4/10)
4. **Trump's ego and competitive nature**: Trump is known for his competitive nature and desire to win, which could motivate him to participate in the debate to prove his dominance and outperform his opponents. (Strength: 9/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I weigh the strength of each argument and conclude that Trump's desire to maintain his frontrunner status and his competitive nature are the most significant factors in his decision to participate in the second debate. However, his loss of momentum, alternative media opportunities, and risk of further scrutiny also play a role in his potential decision-making process.

Initial probability: 62

Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 62 may be slightly too confident, as there are several factors that could influence Trump's decision, and the outcome is far from certain. However, I have considered the available information and weighed the strengths of each argument to arrive at this probability.

Final prediction: *0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the United States Congress pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 or a bill containing its core components, which include definitions of "non-human intelligence" and "technologies of unknown origin," a requirement for the US government to have eminent domain over recovered technologies, and the creation of an independent agency for disclosure, and will President Biden sign the bill into law before the end of the current federal fiscal year on September 30, 2023?

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Complexity and controversy**: The UAP Disclosure Act is an extraordinary piece of legislation that deals with sensitive and potentially controversial topics, such as the existence of non-human intelligence and technologies of unknown origin. This complexity may lead to delays or opposition from various stakeholders, making it harder for the bill to pass. (Strength: 4)
2. **Partisan divisions**: The bill's bipartisan introduction does not guarantee its passage, as Congress is often divided along party lines. If one party strongly opposes the bill, it may not have the necessary support to pass. (Strength: 4)
3. **Prioritization of other legislation**: With a packed legislative agenda and limited time before the end of the federal fiscal year, Congress may prioritize other bills over the UAP Disclosure Act. (Strength: 3)
4. **Lack of public awareness and pressure**: Unlike other high-profile issues, UAPs may not generate significant public attention or pressure on lawmakers to act. This lack of momentum may reduce the bill's chances of passage. (Strength: 2)
5. **Bureaucratic hurdles**: The bill's creation of an independent agency and the government's acquisition of recovered technologies may raise concerns about jurisdiction, funding, and implementation, potentially slowing down the legislative process. (Strength: 3)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Bipartisan support**: The bill's introduction on a bipartisan basis suggests that there is some level of agreement among lawmakers on the issue, which can facilitate its passage. (Strength: 4)
2. **Growing interest in UAPs**: The increasing attention to UAPs in the media and the public sphere may create a sense of urgency and momentum for the bill. (Strength: 4)
3. **National security implications**: The bill's focus on national security and the potential risks associated with UAPs may attract support from lawmakers who prioritize defense and security issues. (Strength: 4)
4. **President Biden's support**: As the bill's sponsor, President Biden's support for the legislation can help push it through the legislative process. (Strength: 4)
5. **Sense of urgency**: The end of the federal fiscal year creates a sense of urgency, as Congress may feel pressure to pass key legislation before the deadline. (Strength: 3)

Aggregate considerations:

Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, I weigh the strengths of each argument. While there are valid concerns about the bill's complexity, partisan divisions, and bureaucratic hurdles, the bipartisan support, growing interest in UAPs, national security implications, and President Biden's support create a strong foundation for the bill's passage. The sense of urgency and the fact that the bill is part of the National Defense Authorization Act, a high-priority legislation, also increase its chances.

Initial probability: 65

Evaluation of confidence:

My initial probability of 65% may be considered moderately confident. However, I should consider the base rate of similar legislation passing in the past. While there are instances of significant legislation passing in the US Congress, the UAP Disclosure Act's unique nature and potential controversy may make its passage less likely. I should also consider the possibility of last-minute delays or amendments that could impact the bill's chances.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and expanded question:**

Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023, given that the resolution must be introduced by a member of the Republican Party and a vote on the resolution must occur before October 1, 2023? Both the introduction of the resolution and the vote must take place before the deadline. The outcome of the vote and any resolutions introduced by representatives who are not Republicans are irrelevant for the purposes of this question. Additionally, the resolution must be introduced and voted on in accordance with the rules of the House of Representatives, specifically Rule IX, which governs questions of privilege and the procedures for removing the Speaker.

**Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong)**

1. **Kevin McCarthy's concessions to the House Freedom Caucus**: McCarthy has made concessions to the House Freedom Caucus, which may have weakened his position as Speaker, but it's unclear whether these concessions will lead to a vote to remove him. (Strength: 2)
2. **Lack of clear opposition**: While there are some Republicans who may be unhappy with McCarthy's leadership, there is no clear indication that they have the numbers to remove him. (Strength: 3)
3. **Rules of the House**: The rules of the House, specifically Rule IX, may make it difficult to introduce and pass a resolution to remove the Speaker, especially if it is not introduced by direction of a party caucus or conference. (Strength: 4)
4. **Matt Gaetz's involvement**: Matt Gaetz is mentioned as a potential proponent of the resolution, but it's unclear whether he has the support of other Republicans or the ability to introduce the resolution successfully. (Strength: 2)
5. **Lack of urgency**: There is no clear indication that the situation in the House is dire enough to warrant a vote to remove McCarthy, which could be a reason to expect a vote to happen. (Strength: 1)

**Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5)**

1. **Matt Gaetz's involvement**: Matt Gaetz's involvement suggests that there is at least one Republican who is willing to introduce a resolution to remove McCarthy, which increases the likelihood of a vote. (Strength: 4)
2. **Weak position of McCarthy**: McCarthy's concessions to the House Freedom Caucus and the contentious election process may have weakened his position as Speaker, making it more likely that a vote to remove him could happen. (Strength: 4)
3. **Rules of the House**: While the rules of the House may make it difficult to introduce and pass a resolution to remove the Speaker, they do not entirely preclude it, and a vote could still be held. (Strength: 3)
4. **Dissatisfaction among Republicans**: There may be other Republicans who are dissatisfied with McCarthy's leadership and may be willing to support a vote to remove him. (Strength: 3)
5. **Potential for surprise**: In the House, surprises can happen, and a vote to remove McCarthy could be a surprise move by a group of Republicans. (Strength: 2)

**Aggregated considerations**

Considering the reasons why the answer might be yes or no, I believe that the likelihood of a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House before October 1, 2023, is higher than the likelihood of it not happening. The involvement of Matt Gaetz and the potential dissatisfaction among Republicans suggest that there is a plausible path forward for a vote to remove McCarthy.

**Initial probability**

Based on my aggregated considerations, I estimate the initial probability of a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House before October 1, 2023, to be 60.

**Evaluation of confidence**

My initial probability of 60 may be excessively confident, given the uncertainty surrounding the situation in the House and the potential for surprises. Additionally, the base rate of the event is low, as votes to remove the Speaker are relatively rare.

**Final prediction**

*0.40*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023? This question involves assessing the likelihood of the UN Security Council taking action in response to the recent military operation launched by Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed region between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The resolution can be related to the conflict in general or specifically address the current situation. A resolution that mentions both Armenia and Azerbaijan but does not explicitly mention Nagorno-Karabakh will also be considered sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The question is relevant given the recent escalation of the conflict and the emergency meeting of the UN Security Council scheduled for September 21st.

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 6/10):
1. The UN Security Council has a history of inaction in similar conflicts, and the previous emergency meeting in August did not result in a resolution. This suggests a lack of momentum for taking decisive action. (Strength: 6/10)
2. Russia, a key player in the conflict due to its peacekeeping presence in Nagorno-Karabakh, has historically been close to Armenia but has also been increasing its ties with Azerbaijan. This might make it difficult for Russia to push for a resolution that favors one side over the other. (Strength: 4/10)
3. The conflict is complex, with multiple regional and global interests involved. This complexity might make it challenging for the UN Security Council to reach a consensus on a resolution. (Strength: 5/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 8/10):
1. The recent military operation by Azerbaijan has escalated the situation, and the UN Security Council has already scheduled an emergency meeting to address the issue. This suggests a sense of urgency and a willingness to take action. (Strength: 8/10)
2. France has condemned Azerbaijan's actions and called for the emergency meeting, indicating a strong push for the UN Security Council to take a stance. (Strength: 7/10)
3. The conflict has significant implications for regional stability and global security, which might prompt the UN Security Council to take action to prevent further escalation. (Strength: 8/10)

Aggregate considerations:
Considering the reasons for both "yes" and "no," I weigh the strengths of each argument. The recent escalation of the conflict, the scheduled emergency meeting, and the involvement of key players like France suggest a strong likelihood of the UN Security Council taking action. However, the complexity of the conflict, Russia's role, and the history of inaction in similar conflicts temper this optimism.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of the calculated probability:
My initial probability of 60 might be considered not confident enough, given the recent escalation of the conflict and the scheduled emergency meeting. However, the complexity of the conflict and the history of inaction in similar conflicts suggest that there are valid reasons for caution. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the frequency of UN Security Council resolutions), this event might be more common than initially thought.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023, considering the ongoing conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, the recent military operation launched by Azerbaijan on September 19, 2023, and the blockade of the Lachin corridor, which has led to shortages of essential supplies in the region? The resolution criteria for this question include: 
- Stepanakert / Khankendi is under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023, as per the consensus of credible reports.
- Stepanakert / Khankendi is not under the control of the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh/the Republic of Artsakh, or another breakaway entity, as per the consensus of credible reports.
- Control of the city is not disputed, as per the consensus of credible reports.

Reasons why the answer might be No (Strength: 8/10):
1. The Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh/the Republic of Artsakh has maintained control over Stepanakert / Khankendi for decades, and the region has a significant ethnic Armenian population. (Strength: 6/10)
2. Azerbaijan's recent military operation has been widely condemned by Western nations, which may indicate that Azerbaijan's actions are not likely to result in a quick takeover of the city. (Strength: 4/10)
3. The blockade of the Lachin corridor has led to shortages of essential supplies in the region, which may weaken Azerbaijan's ability to assert control over Stepanakert / Khankendi. (Strength: 5/10)
4. The Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh/the Republic of Artsakh has a well-established military presence in the region and may be able to defend Stepanakert / Khankendi against Azerbaijani forces. (Strength: 7/10)

Reasons why the answer might be Yes (Strength: 6/10):
1. Azerbaijan has a significant military advantage over the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh/the Republic of Artsakh, which may allow them to assert control over Stepanakert / Khankendi. (Strength: 5/10)
2. Azerbaijan's recent military operation has already led to significant territorial gains, which may indicate a shift in the balance of power in the region. (Strength: 4/10)
3. The blockade of the Lachin corridor has weakened the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh/the Republic of Artsakh's ability to receive essential supplies, which may make it more difficult for them to defend Stepanakert / Khankendi. (Strength: 5/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the above points, it seems that the situation is complex and dynamic, with both sides having valid reasons to assert control over Stepanakert / Khankendi. However, the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh/the Republic of Artsakh has maintained control over the city for decades, and Azerbaijan's recent military operation has been widely condemned. The blockade of the Lachin corridor has also weakened the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh/the Republic of Artsakh's ability to receive essential supplies.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation:
My initial probability of 40 may be too low, considering the significant military advantage Azerbaijan has over the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh/the Republic of Artsakh. However, the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh/the Republic of Artsakh has a well-established military presence in the region and has maintained control over Stepanakert / Khankendi for decades. Additionally, the blockade of the Lachin corridor has weakened Azerbaijan's ability to assert control over the city. Considering these factors, my initial probability may be too low.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will US Senator Bob Menendez announce his resignation from the Senate before October 1, 2023, given his recent indictment on bribery charges and the calls for his resignation from several Senate Democrats, including Senator Cory Booker?

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **History of Resilience**: As a seasoned politician with a long-standing career, Senator Menendez might be inclined to fight the charges and maintain his position, rather than resign. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Lack of a Clear Guilty Plea**: Without a guilty plea or a clear indication of his willingness to step down, it's possible that Menendez might choose to contest the charges and continue serving in the Senate. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Potential for Political Support**: As a prominent Democrat, Menendez might receive support from his party and constituents, which could help him weather the scandal and maintain his position. (Strength: 4/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Growing Pressure from Democrats**: The calls for resignation from several Senate Democrats, including Senator Cory Booker, might create significant pressure on Menendez to step down. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **High-Profile Indictment**: The bribery charges against Menendez are serious and high-profile, which could damage his reputation and make it difficult for him to continue serving in the Senate. (Strength: 9/10)
3. **Potential Loss of Credibility**: If Menendez were to continue serving in the Senate despite the indictment, it could lead to a loss of credibility and trust among his constituents and colleagues. (Strength: 7/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the pressure from Democrats, the severity of the indictment, and the potential loss of credibility, it seems more likely that Senator Menendez will announce his resignation before October 1, 2023. However, his history of resilience and potential for political support suggest that there is still a chance he might choose to fight the charges and continue serving.

Initial probability: 65

Evaluation:
Upon further consideration, I realize that the initial probability might be excessively confident. While the reasons for a "yes" answer are strong, the reasons for a "no" answer are still significant. Additionally, the base rate of politicians resigning in response to indictment is not extremely high. Therefore, I might want to adjust the probability downward.

Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and expanded question:**

Will the party that wins the most seats in the 2023 Dutch parliamentary elections be the VVD? Given the recent fall of the Rutte IV cabinet, the rise of the agrarian BBB party, and the significant changes in the Dutch political landscape, including the retirement of several prominent politicians and the formation of a left-wing alliance between PvdA and GL, what are the chances that the VVD will emerge as the party with the most seats in the upcoming elections?

**Reasons why the answer might be No (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):**

1. The BBB party has already shown significant strength in the States-Provincial elections, winning the highest number of seats in every province. This suggests that they may have a strong following among the Dutch population. (Strength: 4)
2. The VVD has been part of the outgoing Rutte IV cabinet, which has been plagued by scandals and policy disputes, including the contentious nitrogen emission policy. This may have damaged the party's reputation and made it harder for them to win over voters. (Strength: 3)
3. The PvdA and GL have formed an alliance, which may attract left-wing voters who are dissatisfied with the current government. This could potentially split the vote and make it harder for the VVD to win the most seats. (Strength: 2)
4. Pieter Omtzigt's new party, NSC, is focused on issues of parliamentary oversight and social security, which may appeal to voters who are dissatisfied with the current government's handling of these issues. (Strength: 1)
5. The Dutch political landscape is highly unpredictable, and there may be other factors at play that are not currently accounted for. (Strength: 1)

**Reasons why the answer might be Yes (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):**

1. The VVD has a long history of success in Dutch politics and has been a dominant force in the country's parliament for many years. (Strength: 4)
2. The party has a strong leader and a well-established campaign team, which may help them to navigate the complexities of the election. (Strength: 3)
3. The VVD has a broad appeal and has traditionally been able to attract voters from across the political spectrum. (Strength: 2)
4. The party has a strong track record on economic issues, which may appeal to voters who are concerned about the country's economic prospects. (Strength: 2)
5. The VVD has a strong grassroots organization and a large number of local politicians, which may help them to mobilize support at the local level. (Strength: 1)

**Aggregated considerations:**

Based on the above analysis, I would say that the VVD has a moderate chance of winning the most seats in the 2023 Dutch parliamentary elections. While the BBB party has shown significant strength in the States-Provincial elections, and the PvdA and GL alliance may attract left-wing voters, the VVD has a long history of success and a strong campaign team. However, the unpredictable nature of Dutch politics and the potential for other factors to come into play mean that the outcome is far from certain.

**Initial probability: 60**

**Evaluation of initial probability:**

My initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, but it may be overly confident. The Dutch political landscape is highly unpredictable, and there are many factors that could affect the outcome of the election. Additionally, the BBB party's strong performance in the States-Provincial elections suggests that they may be a significant force in the parliamentary elections. Therefore, I may have underestimated the likelihood of the BBB party winning the most seats.

**Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the PvdA-GL alliance win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? The PvdA and GL parties have announced they will participate in the elections as one alliance, with one list of candidates and one candidate for prime minister, amidst a turbulent period in Dutch politics. The fall of the Rutte IV cabinet and the rise of the agrarian BBB party have significantly altered the political landscape. The BBB party won the States-Provincial elections of 2023, gaining the highest number of seats in every province. Additionally, prominent figures have left the ruling coalition, and new parties have emerged, including the Christian Democratic NSC party. Given this context, what are the chances that the PvdA-GL alliance will win the most seats in the 2023 Dutch parliamentary elections?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-10, where 1 is a weak reason and 10 is a strong reason):

* The BBB party has already shown significant success in the States-Provincial elections, winning the highest number of seats in every province. (Strength: 8)
* The PvdA and GL parties are merging, which might lead to a loss of individual identities and voter loyalty. (Strength: 6)
* The BBB party's focus on agrarian issues might appeal to a significant portion of the Dutch electorate, potentially drawing votes away from the PvdA-GL alliance. (Strength: 7)
* The emergence of the NSC party might siphon off votes from the PvdA-GL alliance, especially if voters are dissatisfied with the current political landscape. (Strength: 5)
* The PvdA and GL parties have not yet demonstrated a strong track record of cooperation, which might lead to internal conflicts and a divided voter base. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-10, where 1 is a weak reason and 10 is a strong reason):

* The PvdA-GL alliance has a strong combined presence in Dutch politics, which could translate to a significant number of seats in the parliamentary elections. (Strength: 9)
* The alliance's decision to merge might appeal to voters seeking a unified left-wing front against the BBB party. (Strength: 8)
* The PvdA and GL parties have a strong history of cooperation on various issues, which could lead to a cohesive campaign and voter base. (Strength: 7)
* The current political landscape is highly unstable, and the PvdA-GL alliance might benefit from the discontent among voters with the current government. (Strength: 6)
* The BBB party's focus on agrarian issues might not resonate with a significant portion of the Dutch electorate, potentially leaving room for the PvdA-GL alliance to capitalize on other issues. (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Based on the reasons provided, the BBB party's success in the States-Provincial elections and its focus on agrarian issues are significant concerns for the PvdA-GL alliance. However, the alliance's strong combined presence, potential appeal to voters seeking a unified left-wing front, and the unstable political landscape might work in its favor. The emergence of the NSC party and potential internal conflicts within the PvdA-GL alliance are also factors to consider.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of the PvdA-GL alliance winning the most seats in the 2023 Dutch parliamentary elections to be around 40%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:

The initial probability of 40% seems reasonable, given the mixed signals from the reasons provided. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the BBB party's strong performance in the States-Provincial elections. A more conservative estimate might be warranted, considering the BBB party's momentum.

7. Final prediction:

*0.30*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.3
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the party that wins the most seats in the 2023 Dutch parliamentary elections be the BBB party, led by Caroline van der Plas, who has put forward former CDA State Secretary for Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, Mona Keijzer, as her candidate for prime minister? 

Given the context of the Dutch political landscape, where the fall of the Rutte IV cabinet has led to a turbulent period in politics, the rise of the agrarian BBB party following the States-Provincial elections, and the announcement of several high-profile retirements from established parties, we need to consider the potential factors that could influence the outcome of the 2023 Dutch parliamentary elections. This question will resolve as Yes if the BBB party wins the most seats, and as No for all other parties. If two or more parties announce a shared list of candidates, they will be considered as one party. In the event of a tie for the most seats, both parties will resolve as Yes. If a party not listed in the question wins the most seats, all questions will resolve as No.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- **Strength: 6/10**: The BBB party's success in the States-Provincial elections might be an anomaly, and they might not be able to replicate this performance in the parliamentary elections.
- **Strength: 7/10**: The BBB party's focus on agrarian issues might not be enough to win over a broad coalition of voters, potentially limiting their appeal to a specific demographic.
- **Strength: 5/10**: The alliance between PvdA and GL might create a strong left-wing bloc that could challenge the BBB party's chances of winning the most seats.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- **Strength: 8/10**: The BBB party's success in the States-Provincial elections suggests a strong grassroots support and momentum, which could translate to the parliamentary elections.
- **Strength: 9/10**: The retirement of several high-profile politicians from established parties has created a power vacuum, which the BBB party might be well-positioned to fill.
- **Strength: 6/10**: Caroline van der Plas's decision to remain in parliament and put forward Mona Keijzer as her candidate for prime minister could help to maintain the party's momentum and appeal to a broader audience.

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for a "yes" and "no" outcome, I would rate the likelihood of the BBB party winning the most seats in the 2023 Dutch parliamentary elections as follows:

- Strength of reasons for a "yes" outcome: 23/30
- Strength of reasons for a "no" outcome: 18/30

This suggests that the evidence points slightly more towards a "yes" outcome, but there are still some uncertainties and potential challenges that could affect the BBB party's chances.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the BBB party winning the most seats in the 2023 Dutch parliamentary elections as 65%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

The initial probability of 65% seems relatively confident, but it's still within a reasonable range given the uncertainty surrounding the outcome. However, it's worth considering the base rate of the event, which is that the BBB party is a relatively new and untested party in the Dutch political landscape. This might suggest that the probability should be adjusted downwards to account for the uncertainty and unpredictability of the outcome.

7. Final prediction:

*0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and expanded question:**

Will the party that wins the most seats in the 2023 Dutch parliamentary elections be the National-Socialist and Conservative (NSC) party, led by Pieter Omtzigt?

**Background information:**

- The Rutte IV cabinet fell on July 7th, 2023, due to immigration issues and other policy disputes.
- The agrarian BBB party won the States-Provincial elections in 2023, gaining the highest number of seats in every province.
- Several high-profile figures from the ruling coalition have announced their retirement from national politics.
- The PvdA and GL parties have formed an alliance for the parliamentary elections, presenting a shared list of candidates and a single candidate for prime minister.
- Pieter Omtzigt, a former CDA member, founded the NSC party, focusing on parliamentary oversight and social security.
- The party leaders of the BBB and NSC have stated they will remain in parliament, but have not put forward alternative candidates for prime minister.

**Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1 to 10 for strength):**

1. **The BBB party's strong performance in the States-Provincial elections**: The BBB party's success in the provincial elections suggests they have significant support among the Dutch population, which could translate to a strong performance in the parliamentary elections. (Strength: 8)
2. **The alliance between PvdA and GL**: The combined forces of the PvdA and GL parties could lead to a significant challenge for the NSC party, potentially allowing another party to win the most seats. (Strength: 6)
3. **The BBB party's strong leader, Caroline van der Plas**: Mona Keijzer, the BBB party's candidate for prime minister, has a strong background in economic affairs and climate policy, which could give the BBB party an advantage in the elections. (Strength: 5)
4. **The NSC party's lack of a strong leader**: Pieter Omtzigt's decision not to run for prime minister might hinder the NSC party's ability to attract voters and gain momentum. (Strength: 4)
5. **The Dutch electoral system**: The Dutch electoral system is based on proportional representation, which can make it difficult for a single party to win a majority of seats. (Strength: 3)

**Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1 to 10 for strength):**

1. **The NSC party's focus on key issues**: The NSC party's emphasis on parliamentary oversight and social security might resonate with voters who are dissatisfied with the current government's performance. (Strength: 8)
2. **Pieter Omtzigt's popularity**: As a former CDA member, Pieter Omtzigt has a strong reputation and might be able to attract voters from across the political spectrum. (Strength: 7)
3. **The BBB party's potential fragmentation**: While the BBB party performed well in the States-Provincial elections, they might struggle to translate this success into a parliamentary majority, potentially allowing the NSC party to win the most seats. (Strength: 6)
4. **The NSC party's ability to attract disaffected voters**: The NSC party's focus on issues that are not being addressed by the current government might attract voters who are dissatisfied with the status quo. (Strength: 5)

**Aggregated considerations:**

Considering the reasons above, I believe that the NSC party has a decent chance of winning the most seats in the 2023 Dutch parliamentary elections. However, the BBB party's strong performance in the States-Provincial elections and the alliance between PvdA and GL might hinder the NSC party's progress.

**Initial probability: 55**

**Evaluation:**

My initial probability might be considered overly confident, given the uncertainty surrounding the Dutch electoral system and the various factors that can influence voter behavior. However, I have taken into account the BBB party's strong performance in the States-Provincial elections and the potential fragmentation of the Dutch political landscape.

**Final prediction:** *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the party D66 win the most seats in the first Dutch parliamentary election of 2023, given the current political landscape, where the Rutte IV cabinet has fallen due to immigration issues and the rise of the agrarian BBB party, and considering the retirement of prominent figures from the ruling coalition and the potential impact of the PvdA and GL joining as one alliance, as well as the emergence of the NSC party led by Pieter Omtzigt?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reason 1: The BBB party has already shown significant success in the States-Provincial elections, winning the highest number of seats in every province, which could indicate a strong presence in the parliamentary election. Strength: 8/10
- Reason 2: The PvdA and GL joining as one alliance might split the left-wing vote, potentially benefiting other parties like D66, but it could also lead to a stronger left-wing presence, which might not necessarily help D66. Strength: 6/10
- Reason 3: The NSC party, led by Pieter Omtzigt, might attract voters who are dissatisfied with the current political situation, potentially drawing votes away from D66. Strength: 5/10
- Reason 4: The Netherlands has a history of voting for centrist parties, and D66 is often considered a centrist party. However, the current political landscape is highly unstable, and voters might be more inclined to vote for more extreme parties. Strength: 4/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Reason 1: D66 has historically been a strong performer in Dutch parliamentary elections, and its centrist platform might appeal to voters looking for a stable alternative to the BBB party. Strength: 8/10
- Reason 2: The PvdA and GL joining as one alliance might create a more unified left-wing presence, which could help D66 by drawing votes away from the BBB party. Strength: 7/10
- Reason 3: The NSC party, while potentially attracting some votes, is a new party and might not have the same level of infrastructure and recognition as established parties like D66. Strength: 6/10
- Reason 4: The current political situation is highly unstable, and voters might be looking for a party that can provide stability and leadership, which D66 might be able to offer. Strength: 7/10

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the most significant factors are the BBB party's strong performance in the States-Provincial elections and D66's historical performance in parliamentary elections. The PvdA and GL joining as one alliance and the NSC party's emergence also play a role, but their impact is less clear. Overall, the balance of reasons suggests that D66 might not win the most seats, but it's not impossible.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of D66 winning the most seats as 40%.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
My initial probability might be too high, given the BBB party's strong performance in the States-Provincial elections. However, the Dutch parliamentary election is a different contest, and D66 has a strong track record. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of any party winning the most seats in a Dutch parliamentary election), it's relatively low. This might suggest that my initial probability is too high.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will the Party for Freedom (PVV) win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023, considering the current political landscape and recent developments, such as the fall of the Rutte IV cabinet, the rise of the agrarian BBB party, the merger of the mainstream left-wing parties PvdA and GL, and the emergence of the Christian Democratic NSC party?

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **Competition from BBB**: The BBB party has already shown significant strength in the States-Provincial elections, winning the highest number of seats in every province. This momentum could translate to the parliamentary elections, potentially making it difficult for PVV to surpass them. (Strength: 7/10)
2. **PvdA-GL Alliance**: The merger of PvdA and GL could create a formidable force, potentially siphoning off votes from PVV and other parties. This alliance could also appeal to voters seeking a more unified left-wing alternative. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **NSC Party's Focus on Governance**: Pieter Omtzigt's NSC party is centered around issues of parliamentary oversight and social security, which could attract voters dissatisfied with the current government's performance. This could potentially draw support away from PVV. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **PVV's History of Polarization**: PVV has been known for its polarizing stance on issues like immigration and Islam, which may not appeal to a broad range of voters. This could limit their ability to win over a significant share of the electorate. (Strength: 8/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **PVV's Established Base**: Despite the challenges, PVV has a strong and dedicated base of supporters, particularly among those who identify with its anti-immigration and anti-Islam stances. This core support could provide a solid foundation for the party's electoral performance. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Geert Wilders' Leadership**: Geert Wilders, the leader of PVV, is a well-known and charismatic figure in Dutch politics. His ability to mobilize his base and attract new supporters could help PVV perform well in the elections. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Current Unpopularity of Mainstream Parties**: The recent scandals and controversies surrounding the Rutte IV cabinet have damaged the reputation of the mainstream parties, potentially creating an opportunity for PVV to capitalize on voter dissatisfaction. (Strength: 6/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

After weighing the reasons for and against, I consider the PVV's established base and Geert Wilders' leadership to be significant strengths. However, the competition from BBB, the PvdA-GL alliance, and the NSC party's focus on governance are potential challenges that could limit PVV's growth. I also consider the PVV's history of polarization to be a significant weakness.

**Initial Probability:**

Based on my analysis, I estimate the probability of PVV winning the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023 to be around 40%.

**Evaluation and Final Prediction:**

Upon reviewing my initial probability, I consider it to be somewhat conservative. While there are valid reasons to doubt PVV's ability to win the most seats, the party's established base and Wilders' leadership provide a solid foundation for their electoral performance. I also consider the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of PVV winning the most seats in a typical Dutch parliamentary election) to be relatively low, which should be taken into account when evaluating the probability.

**Final Prediction:**

*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will the CDA (Christian Democratic Appeal) party win the most seats in the 2023 Dutch parliamentary elections, considering the current political landscape, party alliances, and recent events such as the fall of the Rutte IV cabinet, the rise of the BBB party, and the announcement of the PvdA and GL parties to run as one alliance?

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **BBB's Strong Performance in States-Provincial Elections**: The BBB party has already shown its strength in the States-Provincial elections, winning the most seats in every province. This could indicate a strong base of support for the party, making it a potential winner in the parliamentary elections. (Strength: 7/10)
2. **PvdA-GL Alliance**: The alliance between the PvdA and GL parties could potentially draw votes away from the CDA, as it presents a united left-wing front. This could be especially damaging if the alliance performs well in the elections. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Pieter Omtzigt's NSC Party**: The NSC party, led by Pieter Omtzigt, a former CDA member, could potentially siphon off some CDA votes, especially if Omtzigt's popularity translates to electoral success. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Base Rate of the Event**: Historically, the CDA has not been the largest party in the Dutch parliament, and the current political landscape is highly uncertain. This could make it more challenging for the CDA to win the most seats. (Strength: 4/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **CDA's Experience and Infrastructure**: The CDA is an established party with a strong infrastructure and a long history of winning elections. This could give them an edge over newer parties like the BBB and NSC. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Mona Keijzer's Candidacy**: Mona Keijzer, the former CDA State Secretary for Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, has been put forward as a candidate for prime minister by the BBB party. This could indicate that the CDA has a strong potential candidate to lead the country, which could boost their chances of winning the most seats. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Stability and Credibility**: The CDA has a reputation for being a stable and credible party, which could appeal to voters in uncertain times. (Strength: 6/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Considering the reasons above, I would say that the CDA has a decent chance of winning the most seats in the 2023 Dutch parliamentary elections. However, the rise of the BBB party and the PvdA-GL alliance make the outcome uncertain. The CDA's experience and infrastructure are significant advantages, but the BBB's strong performance in the States-Provincial elections and the PvdA-GL alliance's united front could counterbalance these advantages.

**Initial Probability:** 55

**Evaluation of Confidence:**

My initial probability of 55 seems reasonable, considering the uncertain nature of the election outcome. However, I may be underestimating the impact of the PvdA-GL alliance and the BBB party's momentum. Additionally, I may be overestimating the CDA's experience and infrastructure as a guarantee of success.

**Final Prediction:** *0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Velikiy Tokmak railway station in Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, on January 1, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War's map, which shows the territory as not under either "assessed Russian advance" or "assessed Russian control"? This question considers the control of the southern end of the town, where the railway station is located, as of the latest available information. If the ISW ceases to publish this information or changes the naming conventions for the assessed territory, the resolution will be based on information provided by ISW or other credible sources. In the event that the railway station no longer stands at its current location or is fully destroyed, the resolution will be based on control of the area where the building was located on the 21st of February 2022, as seen on the latest available Google Earth image.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-10, 10 being the strongest):

* Ukraine's counteroffensive has faced significant challenges, including strong Russian defenses and logistical difficulties. (Strength: 8)
* The Russian military has shown a history of adapting to and countering Ukrainian advances. (Strength: 7)
* The frontlines in the region are relatively close to Tokmak, and a change in control could be influenced by various factors, including Russian troop movements and Ukrainian military strategies. (Strength: 6)
* There is a risk of Russian counterattacks or stabilization of the frontlines, potentially preventing Ukrainian control of the railway station. (Strength: 5)
* The Ukrainian military's ability to maintain control over a newly liberated area can be challenging, and there is a risk of losing ground to Russian forces. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-10, 10 being the strongest):

* The general leading Ukraine's counteroffensive has stated that liberating Tokmak is a key objective, indicating a strong commitment to achieving this goal. (Strength: 9)
* Ukraine has made significant gains in the region since the start of the counteroffensive in June 2023. (Strength: 8)
* The Institute for the Study of War's map is a reliable source of information on the current situation on the ground, and its data suggests that Ukrainian forces are making progress. (Strength: 7)
* The Ukrainian military has demonstrated its ability to adapt and improve its tactics, which could contribute to a successful outcome in this region. (Strength: 6)
* The railway station's location on the southern end of the town, which is a relatively exposed area, might be more vulnerable to Ukrainian advances. (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the balance of evidence suggests that the answer is more likely to be yes, but with some uncertainty. The strong commitment of the Ukrainian military to liberating Tokmak, their recent gains in the region, and the reliability of the Institute for the Study of War's map all contribute to this assessment. However, the challenges faced by the Ukrainian military, the adaptability of the Russian forces, and the risks associated with maintaining control over newly liberated areas all introduce uncertainty.

5. Initial probability: 62

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 62% seems reasonable, given the balance of evidence. However, it may be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully capture the strength of the Ukrainian military's commitment to liberating Tokmak and the recent gains in the region. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of Ukraine achieving its objectives in this region) is difficult to estimate, but it is likely higher than 0.5 due to the Ukrainian military's recent successes.

7. Final prediction: *0.72*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.72
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Governor Gavin Newsom appoint Rep. Barbara Lee (D) as the temporary replacement for Sen. Dianne Feinstein in the United States Senate, considering his previous commitment to appointing a Black woman to the seat if he had a second Senate appointment, but also his recent statement that he would not choose Rep. Lee as the interim replacement, and that he would not select any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, including Rep. Adam Schiff and Rep. Katie Porter?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

- Newsom's recent statement directly contradicts his previous commitment to appointing Rep. Lee (Strength: 4)
- Newsom's intention to select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Lee (Strength: 4)
- Newsom's desire not to influence the 2024 election by selecting a candidate from the current field (Strength: 3)
- Rep. Lee might not be the top choice among other potential candidates (Strength: 2)
- The Governor's office might consider other factors not publicly disclosed (Strength: 1)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

- Newsom's initial commitment to appointing a Black woman, which Rep. Lee meets (Strength: 4)
- Rep. Lee is a prominent figure in California politics and a well-known Democrat (Strength: 3)
- Newsom might still honor his initial commitment despite his recent statement (Strength: 2)
- Rep. Lee's experience and qualifications as a member of Congress (Strength: 2)
- The Governor's office might not have a strong alternative candidate (Strength: 1)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons provided, the balance of evidence suggests that Newsom's recent statement is a strong indication that he will not appoint Rep. Lee. However, his initial commitment and Rep. Lee's qualifications still provide some grounds for optimism. Considering the strength of the reasons, I would rate the likelihood of Newsom appointing Rep. Lee as 20%.

5. Initial probability: 20

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 20% seems relatively low, considering the weight of Newsom's recent statement. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of such appointments, which might be low due to the specific circumstances of this case. Additionally, the Governor's office might still have reasons to appoint Rep. Lee that are not publicly disclosed. Therefore, the initial probability might be underconfident.

7. Final prediction: *0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will California Governor Gavin Newsom appoint Representative Adam Schiff (D) to replace the late Senator Dianne Feinstein in the U.S. Senate, considering that Newsom has committed to appointing a Black woman if he had a second Senate appointment but has stated he would select an interim replacement rather than Representative Barbara Lee, the only Black woman running for Feinstein’s seat, and that he will not choose any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, including Representative Adam Schiff and Representative Katie Porter, given that the primary election to determine the major-candidates for the seat will be held on March 5, 2024?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
   - Reason 1: Governor Newsom has explicitly stated that he would select an interim replacement rather than Representative Barbara Lee, the only Black woman running for Feinstein’s seat. This suggests that he might not appoint Representative Adam Schiff, who is also running for the seat, as an interim replacement. (Strength: 4)
   - Reason 2: Governor Newsom has also stated that he would not choose any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, which includes Representative Adam Schiff. This statement might imply that he will not appoint Representative Schiff as an interim replacement. (Strength: 4)
   - Reason 3: Representative Adam Schiff might not be the most qualified or suitable candidate for the interim replacement position, and Governor Newsom might choose someone else from within California's pool of politicians. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
   - Reason 1: Governor Newsom has not explicitly ruled out appointing Representative Adam Schiff as an interim replacement, and it is possible that he might choose Schiff despite his statement about not selecting any of the Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election. (Strength: 3)
   - Reason 2: Representative Adam Schiff is a well-known and experienced politician, and his appointment might be seen as a way to provide stability and continuity in the Senate. (Strength: 2)
   - Reason 3: Governor Newsom might choose Representative Schiff as a way to build support for his own potential future political ambitions, as Schiff is a prominent Democrat in California. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons why the answer might be no seem stronger than the reasons why the answer might be yes, as Governor Newsom has explicitly stated that he would not choose Representative Adam Schiff and that he would select an interim replacement rather than Representative Barbara Lee. However, there is still some uncertainty, as Governor Newsom has not explicitly ruled out appointing Representative Schiff.

5. Initial probability: 20
Given the information provided, it seems that the likelihood of Governor Newsom appointing Representative Adam Schiff is relatively low, as he has explicitly stated that he would not choose Representative Schiff and that he would select an interim replacement rather than Representative Barbara Lee.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully capture the uncertainty and nuance of Governor Newsom's statements. There might be other factors at play that could influence his decision, such as his relationship with Representative Schiff or the potential political implications of his appointment.

7. Final prediction: *0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Governor Gavin Newsom (D) appoint Rep. Katie Porter (D) to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) in the U.S. Senate if he selects an interim replacement for the remainder of her term, given that he has committed to appointing a Black woman if he had another Senate appointment but now plans to choose an interim replacement, has ruled out Rep. Barbara Lee (D) and the other Democrats running for Feinstein’s seat in the 2024 election, including Rep. Adam Schiff (D) and Rep. Katie Porter (D), and the primary election to determine the major-candidates for the seat is scheduled for March 5, 2024?

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. Governor Newsom has ruled out Rep. Porter and other candidates running for the seat in the 2024 election, which might suggest he has a different preference for an interim replacement. (Strength: 7/10)
2. The fact that Newsom is choosing an interim replacement rather than allowing the primary election to determine the next senator might indicate he wants to appoint someone with specific qualifications or characteristics that are not necessarily tied to Rep. Porter. (Strength: 6/10)
3. There might be other qualified candidates that Newsom is considering for the interim replacement that are not Rep. Porter. (Strength: 5/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. Governor Newsom has committed to appointing a Black woman if he had another Senate appointment, and Rep. Porter is a Black woman. (Strength: 9/10)
2. Rep. Porter is a well-known and respected member of Congress, and her appointment would be a significant boost to the Democratic Party. (Strength: 8/10)
3. Newsom has not publicly announced any other candidates he is considering for the interim replacement, which might suggest that Rep. Porter is still in the running. (Strength: 7/10)

Aggregate considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the most significant factor in favor of Rep. Porter's appointment is Newsom's commitment to appointing a Black woman. However, the fact that he has ruled out Rep. Porter and other candidates running for the seat in the 2024 election, and his decision to choose an interim replacement rather than allowing the primary election to determine the next senator, might suggest that he has other preferences or considerations. Overall, the balance of evidence suggests that Rep. Porter is still a strong candidate for the interim replacement, but the uncertainty surrounding Newsom's preferences and the fact that he is choosing an interim replacement rather than allowing the primary election to determine the next senator might reduce the likelihood of her appointment.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable given the balance of evidence, but it might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully capture the strength of Newsom's commitment to appointing a Black woman. Additionally, the fact that Newsom has ruled out Rep. Porter and other candidates running for the seat in the 2024 election might suggest a stronger likelihood of her appointment.

Final prediction: *0.70*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will California Governor Gavin Newsom appoint a Black woman as the temporary replacement for Sen. Dianne Feinstein, following her death on September 28, 2023, given that he has committed to doing so in the past, but has also stated he would select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman running for Feinstein's seat in the 2024 election, and has ruled out choosing any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, including Reps. Adam Schiff and Katie Porter?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reason 1: Governor Newsom's statement that he would select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee could imply that he might choose someone else, even if they are a Black woman. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: The fact that Governor Newsom has ruled out choosing Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman running for the seat in the 2024 election, might suggest that he is looking for someone else. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: Governor Newsom might not feel pressured to appoint a Black woman due to the fact that he has not explicitly stated that he will choose a Black woman for the temporary replacement. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Reason 1: Governor Newsom has previously committed to appointing a Black woman to the Senate seat if he had the opportunity, which suggests that he is committed to this goal. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: The fact that Governor Newsom has ruled out choosing Reps. Adam Schiff and Katie Porter, who are both white, suggests that he is looking for a more diverse candidate, which could increase the likelihood of appointing a Black woman. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: Governor Newsom's commitment to diversity and representation in government might lead him to appoint a Black woman, even if it's not Rep. Barbara Lee. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons provided, the likelihood of Governor Newsom appointing a Black woman as the temporary replacement for Sen. Dianne Feinstein seems to be slightly higher than the likelihood of not doing so. The reasons in favor of a yes answer seem to have slightly more weight, particularly Governor Newsom's previous commitment to appointing a Black woman.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be around 60-70%. This is a moderate level of confidence, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding Governor Newsom's decision-making process.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability of 60-70% seems to be a reasonable estimate, given the information provided. However, it's worth noting that this is a relatively low level of confidence, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding Governor Newsom's decision-making process. Additionally, it's worth considering the base rate of the event, which is relatively low, as Governor Newsom has not made a similar appointment before. This might suggest that the probability is even lower than initially estimated.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Governor Gavin Newsom of California appoint Representative Maxine Waters to replace Senator Dianne Feinstein, who passed away on September 28, 2023, considering that he has expressed a commitment to appointing a Black woman if he were to make another Senate appointment, but has also mentioned that he would choose an interim replacement rather than Representative Barbara Lee, the only Black woman running for Feinstein's seat, and has ruled out choosing any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, including Representatives Adam Schiff and Katie Porter?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Newsom's statement on choosing an interim replacement instead of Representative Barbara Lee**: This might suggest that Newsom is leaning towards not appointing Representative Maxine Waters, as he has explicitly mentioned choosing an interim replacement rather than Lee. Strength: 7/10
- **Reason 2: Newsom's ruling out of other Democrats**: This might indicate that Newsom is looking for a different candidate, potentially someone not among the current running candidates, including Representative Maxine Waters. Strength: 6/10
- **Reason 3: Waters' age and potential retirement plans**: Representative Maxine Waters is 84 years old, which might make her a less likely choice for a temporary appointment, as Newsom might want someone with a longer term perspective. Strength: 4/10
- **Reason 4: Newsom's potential desire for a longer-term appointment**: As the temporary replacement would serve until the next election, Newsom might prefer to appoint someone who would be more invested in the long-term prospects of the seat, rather than someone who might retire or not run again. Strength: 5/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Newsom's commitment to appointing a Black woman**: Representative Maxine Waters is a Black woman, and Newsom has expressed a commitment to appointing one to the seat. Strength: 8/10
- **Reason 2: Waters' seniority and experience**: As a long-serving Representative, Maxine Waters brings significant experience and seniority to the table, which could make her an attractive choice for Newsom. Strength: 7/10
- **Reason 3: Waters' alignment with Newsom's policies**: Representative Maxine Waters is a progressive Democrat, which aligns with Newsom's own policies and might make her a preferred choice. Strength: 6/10

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against, it seems that Newsom's commitment to appointing a Black woman and Waters' seniority and experience are strong arguments in favor of her appointment. However, Newsom's statement on choosing an interim replacement and his ruling out of other Democrats create uncertainty. Additionally, Waters' age and potential retirement plans are potential drawbacks.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Newsom appointing Representative Maxine Waters as 60%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems relatively high, considering the uncertainty surrounding Newsom's intentions and the potential drawbacks of appointing Waters. However, it is also based on the information available, and without further updates, it remains a reasonable estimate.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Governor Gavin Newsom (D) of California appoint a Black woman to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) in the U.S. Senate, given that he has committed to doing so if he gets another Senate appointment and considering his recent statement that he would select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman running for Feinstein's seat?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- Reason 1: Governor Newsom might change his mind about appointing a Black woman, despite his previous commitment. (Strength: 20)
- Reason 2: The Governor might prioritize other factors, such as the candidate's qualifications, experience, or party loyalty, over the desire to appoint a Black woman. (Strength: 30)
- Reason 3: The Governor might face opposition from other Democratic party leaders or members who do not support his decision to appoint a Black woman. (Strength: 40)
- Reason 4: The Governor might choose to appoint a more established or well-known politician, rather than a relatively unknown Black woman. (Strength: 20)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- Reason 1: Governor Newsom has already committed to appointing a Black woman if he gets another Senate appointment, which suggests he is likely to follow through on this promise. (Strength: 60)
- Reason 2: The Governor's recent statement about selecting an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee implies that he is still committed to appointing a Black woman, albeit in a different context. (Strength: 50)
- Reason 3: Appointing a Black woman would be a significant step towards diversity and representation in the Senate, which might be an important consideration for Governor Newsom. (Strength: 30)
- Reason 4: Governor Newsom might see appointing a Black woman as an opportunity to boost his own reputation as a champion of diversity and inclusion. (Strength: 20)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons provided, the balance of evidence suggests that Governor Newsom is likely to appoint a Black woman to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein. However, there are some factors that could potentially influence his decision, such as his personal preferences, party politics, or external pressures.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Governor Newsom appointing a Black woman to be around 70.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 70 seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too high considering the potential for Governor Newsom to change his mind or face opposition. However, the strength of the reasons in favor of appointing a Black woman are substantial, and the Governor's commitment to doing so provides a strong foundation for this prediction.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will California Governor Gavin Newsom select Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D) as the interim replacement for Sen. Dianne Feinstein's seat in the U.S. Senate, considering that he has committed to appointing a Black woman if he gets another Senate appointment, but has stated he will choose an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, and has ruled out other Democratic candidates running for the seat in the 2024 election, including Rep. Adam Schiff and Rep. Katie Porter? The resolution criteria for this question will be based on an announcement from the Office of the Governor or credible sources.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Strength: 6/10 - Rep. Kamlager-Dove is not the only Black woman in California, and Governor Newsom has committed to appointing a Black woman, but it's possible he might choose a different one. 
- Strength: 4/10 - Governor Newsom has ruled out Rep. Barbara Lee, but it doesn't explicitly mean he won't choose another Black woman, including Rep. Kamlager-Dove. 
- Strength: 2/10 - There's no information suggesting Rep. Kamlager-Dove has any personal connections or relationships with Governor Newsom that could influence his decision.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Strength: 8/10 - Governor Newsom has committed to appointing a Black woman for the seat, and Rep. Kamlager-Dove is a Black woman and a member of the California State Assembly, which might make her a suitable candidate for the role.
- Strength: 6/10 - As a member of the California State Assembly, Rep. Kamlager-Dove has experience in state-level politics, which might be beneficial for the role of a U.S. Senator.

4. Aggregated considerations:
While Governor Newsom has ruled out some candidates, it's still uncertain whether Rep. Kamlager-Dove will be chosen. However, her status as a Black woman and a member of the California State Assembly might give her an advantage in the selection process. Considering the reasons for and against, the probability leans slightly towards a positive outcome.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 55% might be too low considering the Governor's commitment to appointing a Black woman. However, there's still uncertainty surrounding the selection process, and the Governor's decision might be influenced by various factors. The base rate of Governor Newsom appointing a Black woman is relatively high, given his stated commitment.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will California Governor Gavin Newsom select Holly Mitchell, a Black woman, as the temporary replacement for Senator Dianne Feinstein, who passed away on September 28, 2023, given that he has committed to appointing a Black woman if he got a second Senate appointment and has ruled out Rep. Barbara Lee and other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- **Reason 1: Governor Newsom's flexibility in decision-making**: Newsom might still choose a different candidate, even if he has committed to appointing a Black woman. He might decide that the current situation or other factors outweigh his previous commitment. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 2: Alternative candidates**: There might be other Black women who are not running in the 2024 election but are still viable candidates. Newsom might choose one of them instead of Holly Mitchell. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 3: Changing circumstances**: The situation could change between now and the appointment, leading Newsom to reconsider his decision. For example, new information about Holly Mitchell or other candidates might emerge, influencing his choice. (Strength: 7/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- **Reason 1: Governor Newsom's commitment to appointing a Black woman**: Newsom has explicitly stated that he would appoint a Black woman if he got a second Senate appointment, and Holly Mitchell is a Black woman. (Strength: 9/10)
- **Reason 2: Holly Mitchell's qualifications and experience**: As a California state senator, Holly Mitchell has the necessary experience and qualifications to serve in the Senate. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 3: Newsom's past actions**: Newsom has shown a commitment to diversity and representation in his appointments, making it more likely that he will follow through on his promise to appoint a Black woman. (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
- Strengths for "yes": 9 + 8 + 8 = 25
- Weaknesses for "yes": 0
- Strengths for "no": 6 + 5 + 7 = 18
- Weaknesses for "no": 0

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of Holly Mitchell being appointed as 80. This is based on the strength of Newsom's commitment to appointing a Black woman and Holly Mitchell's qualifications.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability might be excessively confident, as it does not take into account the uncertainty of Newsom's decision-making process and the potential for new information to emerge. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of Newsom appointing a Black woman without any specific commitment) is not well-defined. A more conservative estimate might be warranted.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo occur before January 1, 2024, characterized by at least one of the following events:
- At least 100 overtly flagged members of the Serbian military enter Kosovan territory.
- At least 100 overtly flagged members of the Kosovan military enter Serbian territory.
- Combat between overtly flagged forces of the Serbian and Kosovan militaries results in an estimated 50 or more military deaths within a 30-day period, with the conflict occurring after September 28, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Reason 1: Diplomatic efforts and international pressure may prevent conflict escalation (Strength: 4). The international community, including the US and EU, has been involved in mediating the conflict, which might lead to a peaceful resolution.
- Reason 2: Economic costs of war might deter Serbia and Kosovo (Strength: 3). Both countries have limited economic resources, and the costs of a war could be devastating, potentially leading to a peaceful resolution.
- Reason 3: Military superiority of NATO and international forces in the region (Strength: 4). NATO has a significant military presence in Kosovo, and the US has a strong commitment to maintaining regional stability, which might deter Serbia from engaging in conflict.
- Reason 4: Domestic instability in Serbia and Kosovo might prevent conflict escalation (Strength: 2). Both countries face internal challenges, such as economic issues and political instability, which might divert attention away from conflict with each other.
- Reason 5: Historical precedent of de-escalation (Strength: 4). In the past, Serbia and Kosovo have de-escalated tensions through negotiations, which might lead to a similar outcome in the current situation.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5):

- Reason 1: Escalating rhetoric and military buildup (Strength: 5). The recent military deployment by Serbia and the statements from the White House National Security Council suggest a high level of tension and a potential for conflict.
- Reason 2: Kosovo's declaration of independence and Serbia's refusal to recognize it (Strength: 4). The unresolved status of Kosovo's independence could lead to continued tensions and conflict.
- Reason 3: Historical grievances and nationalist sentiment (Strength: 5). The complex history between Serbia and Kosovo, including the Kosovo War, has created deep-seated nationalist tensions that could lead to conflict.
- Reason 4: External factors, such as Russian support for Serbia (Strength: 3). Russia's involvement in the conflict could provide Serbia with military and diplomatic support, increasing the likelihood of conflict.
- Reason 5: Limited international leverage over Serbia (Strength: 2). The international community's ability to influence Serbia's actions is limited, which might embolden the country to take a more aggressive stance.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I weigh the strength of each argument. The reasons for a "yes" answer seem more compelling, particularly the escalating rhetoric and military buildup, historical grievances, and external factors. However, the reasons for a "no" answer, such as diplomatic efforts and military superiority, also carry significant weight.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I estimate the probability of a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024, at 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability might be considered not confident enough, as it underestimates the potential for conflict. The reasons for a "yes" answer are strong, and the international community's ability to prevent conflict is uncertain. However, I have not considered the base rate of military conflicts in the region, which might be relatively low.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will California Governor Gavin Newsom appoint former Senator Barbara Boxer (D) to replace the late Senator Dianne Feinstein (D) in the U.S. Senate, given his commitment to appointing a Black woman as an interim replacement, and his intention to select an interim replacement rather than Representative Barbara Lee, the only Black woman running for Feinstein's seat, and excluding other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, including Representative Adam Schiff and Representative Katie Porter, by the deadline of October 13, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reason 1: Governor Newsom's commitment to appointing a Black woman might not necessarily mean he will choose Barbara Boxer, as he has not explicitly mentioned her name. (Strength: 60)
- Reason 2: Barbara Boxer is a former Senator, not a Black woman, which contradicts Governor Newsom's stated criteria. (Strength: 80)
- Reason 3: Governor Newsom might choose a different Black woman not currently running for the seat, potentially undermining his commitment to Representative Lee. (Strength: 40)
- Reason 4: Governor Newsom might choose a Black woman who is not a politician, or someone from a different field, to fulfill his commitment. (Strength: 30)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Reason 1: Governor Newsom has expressed a willingness to appoint a Black woman to the seat, and Barbara Boxer is a well-known and respected figure in California politics. (Strength: 70)
- Reason 2: Governor Newsom might see appointing Barbara Boxer as a way to honor the legacy of Senator Feinstein and maintain party unity. (Strength: 50)
- Reason 3: Barbara Boxer's experience and connections in the state might make her a strong candidate for the appointment. (Strength: 60)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the balance of evidence suggests that Governor Newsom is unlikely to appoint Barbara Boxer, given his stated commitment to appointing a Black woman and the fact that she is not a Black woman. However, there is some evidence to suggest that he might consider her due to her experience and connections in the state.

5. Initial probability:
Given the reasons provided, I would estimate the probability of Governor Newsom appointing Barbara Boxer as follows: 20

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively low, considering the reasons provided. However, it is possible that Governor Newsom might still consider Barbara Boxer due to her experience and connections. To adjust for this, I would consider the base rate of the event, which is likely to be low given Governor Newsom's stated commitment to appointing a Black woman.

7. Final prediction:
*0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will California Governor Gavin Newsom appoint a Black woman as the temporary replacement for Senator Dianne Feinstein, given his previous commitment to appointing a Black woman if he had a second Senate appointment, and considering his decision to select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman running for Feinstein's seat, and his intention to not choose any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election?

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **Governor Newsom might have changed his mind**: Newsom's previous commitment to appoint a Black woman was made in the context of a second Senate appointment, not necessarily an interim replacement. He might have reevaluated his priorities or received new information that makes him reconsider his decision. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Newsom might prioritize other factors over demographic representation**: As Governor, Newsom might prioritize other qualities or qualifications over demographic representation, such as policy expertise, experience, or personal relationships. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Newsom might choose a more established politician**: Newsom might opt for a more established politician with a stronger track record, rather than a relatively unknown Black woman. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Newsom might face opposition or criticism**: Newsom's decision might be influenced by opposition or criticism from various stakeholders, including the Democratic Party, interest groups, or the public, which could lead him to choose a different candidate. (Strength: 4/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **Newsom's previous commitment**: Newsom has explicitly stated his commitment to appointing a Black woman, which suggests a strong likelihood of following through on this promise. (Strength: 9/10)
2. **Newsom's stated intention to select an interim replacement**: By choosing an interim replacement, Newsom is explicitly bypassing the primary election and can select a candidate of his choice, which increases the likelihood of appointing a Black woman. (Strength: 8/10)
3. **Newsom's desire to avoid controversy**: By selecting a Black woman, Newsom can avoid controversy and potential backlash from the Democratic Party, interest groups, or the public, which might be a consideration given the current political climate. (Strength: 6/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Considering the reasons for and against, I weigh the likelihood of Newsom appointing a Black woman as follows:

* Strength of reasons for "Yes": 23/40
* Strength of reasons for "No": 16/40
* Overall, the balance tips slightly in favor of Newsom appointing a Black woman, but the decision is not a certainty.

**Initial Probability:**

Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the initial probability of Newsom appointing a Black woman as 62%.

**Evaluation and Refinement:**

Upon further consideration, I realize that the initial probability might be too confident. The reasons for and against are relatively evenly matched, and the decision ultimately depends on Newsom's personal preferences and priorities. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of Newsom appointing a Black woman in general) is not explicitly known.

**Final Prediction:**

Considering these factors, I revise my initial probability to a more conservative estimate. *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will California Governor Gavin Newsom appoint a Black woman to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein in the United States Senate, given that he has committed to appointing a Black woman if he gets a second Senate appointment and has ruled out Rep. Barbara Lee and other Democrats running for Feinstein’s seat in the 2024 election, with the primary election scheduled for March 5, 2024, and considering his previous stance on appointing an interim replacement rather than Rep. Lee?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- Strength: 4/10 - Newsom might change his stance or reconsider his previous commitment to appointing a Black woman, especially if other factors such as party loyalty or political expediency come into play.
- Strength: 3/10 - There might be other qualified candidates that Newsom believes are better suited for the role, even if they are not Black women, which could lead him to deviate from his initial commitment.
- Strength: 2/10 - Newsom might face opposition from within his party or from other stakeholders who disagree with his decision to appoint a Black woman, potentially leading him to reconsider his choice.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- Strength: 8/10 - Newsom has publicly committed to appointing a Black woman if he gets a second Senate appointment, which suggests a strong likelihood of him following through on this promise.
- Strength: 6/10 - The fact that he has ruled out Rep. Barbara Lee and other Democrats running for Feinstein’s seat in the 2024 election suggests that he is serious about finding an alternative Black woman to fill the role.
- Strength: 5/10 - Newsom's commitment to diversity and representation in government, as well as his previous efforts to promote diversity in his administration, suggest that he is likely to prioritize appointing a Black woman to the Senate seat.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against, the strength of Newsom's commitment to appointing a Black woman, and the context of his previous statements and actions, it seems that the likelihood of him appointing a Black woman to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein is relatively high.

5. Initial probability: 80

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
While the initial probability of 80 seems reasonable, it might be slightly too confident given the uncertainty surrounding Newsom's decision-making process and the potential for unforeseen factors to influence his choice. However, the fact that Newsom has made a public commitment to appointing a Black woman and has ruled out other candidates suggests a strong likelihood of him following through on this promise. Additionally, the base rate of governors appointing candidates from underrepresented groups is relatively low, which might suggest that Newsom's commitment is more significant than it would be in a more typical scenario.

7. Final prediction: *0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will California Governor Gavin Newsom select Lateefah Simon as the interim replacement for the seat vacated by the late Senator Dianne Feinstein, considering his statement that he will appoint a Black woman if he gets a second Senate appointment, but he has also mentioned that he might choose an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman running for Feinstein’s seat, and excluding other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, including Rep. Adam Schiff and Rep. Katie Porter, given the current timeline and information available as of September 30, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Strength: 6/10 - Lateefah Simon may not be the top choice among the other candidates, and Governor Newsom might consider other factors, such as party loyalty or experience, when making the appointment.
- Strength: 4/10 - There is no concrete information about Governor Newsom's personal relationship with Lateefah Simon, which might influence his decision.
- Strength: 3/10 - Lateefah Simon's qualifications and background might not align with Governor Newsom's expectations for the seat.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Strength: 8/10 - Governor Newsom has explicitly stated his intention to appoint a Black woman to the seat, and Lateefah Simon fits this criterion.
- Strength: 7/10 - Lateefah Simon's background as a community leader and advocate might align with Governor Newsom's values and goals for the seat.
- Strength: 6/10 - As a Black woman, Lateefah Simon might be seen as a more diverse and representative choice for the seat, which could be an important factor in Governor Newsom's decision.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that Governor Newsom's explicit statement about appointing a Black woman and Lateefah Simon's alignment with this criterion are significant factors. However, the lack of concrete information about Governor Newsom's personal relationship with Lateefah Simon and the potential for other considerations (e.g., party loyalty, experience) might affect the decision.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Governor Newsom selecting Lateefah Simon as the interim replacement at 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively moderate, considering the available information. However, it might be too high, as there are still many unknown factors that could influence Governor Newsom's decision. A more cautious approach might be to reduce the probability to account for these uncertainties.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will California Governor Gavin Newsom appoint a Black woman to replace the late Senator Dianne Feinstein in the U.S. Senate, given that he has committed to appointing a Black woman if he gets a second Senate appointment, but has recently stated that he would select an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee, the only Black woman running for Feinstein's seat, and has also ruled out selecting any of the other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, including Rep. Adam Schiff and Rep. Katie Porter?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- **Strength: 8/10**: Governor Newsom might not have the opportunity to appoint a Black woman, as he might choose an interim replacement to serve until the end of the term, which would not necessarily be a Black woman. This could be due to various factors, such as the desire to appoint someone with specific experience or qualifications for the role.
- **Strength: 6/10**: Governor Newsom might not want to prioritize appointing a Black woman, despite his previous commitment, if he believes it would be unpopular or create controversy.
- **Strength: 4/10**: Governor Newsom might not have a strong pool of qualified Black women to choose from, which could limit his options.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- **Strength: 9/10**: Governor Newsom has previously committed to appointing a Black woman, which suggests that he is likely to follow through on this promise.
- **Strength: 8/10**: Governor Newsom has a track record of prioritizing diversity and representation in his appointments, which increases the likelihood that he will appoint a Black woman.
- **Strength: 6/10**: Governor Newsom might see appointing a Black woman as a way to boost his own popularity and reputation, especially given the recent controversy surrounding his decision to appoint an interim replacement rather than Rep. Barbara Lee.

4. Aggregated considerations:

Based on the reasons provided, the balance of evidence suggests that Governor Newsom is likely to appoint a Black woman to replace Senator Feinstein. While there are some potential reasons why he might not, the strength of the reasons for a "yes" answer outweigh those for a "no" answer.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Governor Newsom appointing a Black woman to replace Senator Feinstein at 80%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:

The initial probability of 80% may be excessively confident, given that there are still some uncertainties and potential reasons why Governor Newsom might not appoint a Black woman. However, the strength of the reasons for a "yes" answer and Governor Newsom's previous commitment to appointing a Black woman suggest that this is a plausible outcome.

7. Final prediction:

*0.7*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Governor Gavin Newsom (D) appoint Laphonza Butler, a Black woman, as the interim replacement for Senator Dianne Feinstein (D) in the United States Senate, considering his previous commitment to appoint a Black woman in case of a second Senate appointment and his intention to select an interim replacement rather than Representative Barbara Lee, one of the candidates running for the seat in the 2024 election, given that the primary election for the seat will be held on March 5, 2024?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- Reason 1: Governor Newsom's commitment to appointing a Black woman might be seen as a political move to appease certain groups, rather than a genuine intention to appoint Laphonza Butler. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: There might be other qualified candidates that Governor Newsom prefers over Laphonza Butler, even if they are not Black women. (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 3: The appointment process might be influenced by other factors, such as party politics or personal relationships, that could lead to a different choice. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 4: Laphonza Butler might not be the only candidate being considered, and Governor Newsom might choose someone else. (Strength: 8/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- Reason 1: Governor Newsom has explicitly stated his commitment to appointing a Black woman in case of a second Senate appointment. (Strength: 9/10)
- Reason 2: Laphonza Butler is a prominent figure in California politics and a union leader, which might make her a strong candidate for the appointment. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 3: Governor Newsom's intention to select an interim replacement rather than Representative Barbara Lee suggests that he might be willing to choose a different candidate, potentially Laphonza Butler. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 4: The appointment process might be influenced by Governor Newsom's desire to promote diversity and representation in the Senate. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for and against the appointment of Laphonza Butler, I would rate the likelihood of the appointment as follows:

- Strength of reasons for yes: 8.6/10
- Strength of reasons for no: 6.8/10
- Net strength: 1.8/10

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Laphonza Butler being appointed as *70%.

6. Evaluation of confidence:

My initial probability might be excessively confident, as there are several factors that could influence the appointment process, such as Governor Newsom's personal preferences, the opinions of other politicians, and the potential for unexpected developments. However, Governor Newsom's commitment to appointing a Black woman and his intention to select an interim replacement rather than Representative Barbara Lee suggest a strong likelihood of Laphonza Butler being appointed.

7. Final prediction:

*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and expanded question:**

Will California Governor Gavin Newsom appoint a Black woman to replace Senator Dianne Feinstein in the US Senate, given that he has previously committed to doing so in the case of a second Senate appointment and has ruled out appointing Rep. Barbara Lee and other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election?

**Reasons why the answer might be no:**

1. **Lack of a specific commitment**: Although Newsom has committed to appointing a Black woman in the case of a second Senate appointment, he has not explicitly stated that he will appoint a Black woman in this specific situation. Strength: 2/10
2. **Potential for changing circumstances**: Newsom may have changed his mind or face new circumstances that could influence his decision. Strength: 4/10
3. **Alternative candidates**: Newsom has not ruled out appointing a non-Black woman or a man, potentially giving him flexibility in his choice. Strength: 6/10

**Reasons why the answer might be yes:**

1. **Previous commitment**: Newsom has a clear track record of committing to appoint a Black woman in the case of a second Senate appointment, which suggests he may follow through on this promise. Strength: 8/10
2. **Political considerations**: Appointing a Black woman may be a strategic move to appeal to Democratic voters and maintain party unity. Strength: 7/10
3. **Limited alternatives**: Newsom has already ruled out Rep. Barbara Lee and other Democrats running for the seat, which may limit his options and increase the likelihood of appointing a Black woman. Strength: 9/10

**Aggregated considerations:**

Considering the reasons above, the most significant factor is Newsom's previous commitment to appointing a Black woman. While there are some potential caveats and uncertainties, the strength of this commitment and the limited alternatives suggest that appointing a Black woman is a likely outcome.

**Initial probability:**

Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of Newsom appointing a Black woman to be around 80%.

**Evaluation of confidence:**

Upon reflection, I realize that my initial probability may be overly confident. While Newsom's commitment is a strong factor, there are still uncertainties and potential caveats that could influence his decision. A more cautious approach might be to assign a probability of 60-70%, acknowledging the uncertainty and potential for unexpected developments.

**Final prediction:**

*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will Governor Gavin Newsom appoint a Black woman to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein, given that he has committed to doing so if he got a second Senate appointment and has ruled out Rep. Barbara Lee and other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reason 1: Governor Newsom's initial commitment to appointing a Black woman might be subject to change, especially if he considers other factors such as party loyalty or geographical representation. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: Newsom might decide to appoint someone with specific policy expertise or experience that he believes would better serve the state of California, even if they don't fit his initial criteria. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: The appointment process might involve negotiations or lobbying from various stakeholders, which could lead to a different candidate being chosen. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Reason 1: Governor Newsom has explicitly stated his commitment to appointing a Black woman to the seat, which suggests a strong likelihood of following through on this promise. (Strength: 9/10)
- Reason 2: Newsom has already ruled out Rep. Barbara Lee and other Democrats running for the seat in the 2024 election, which implies that he is serious about appointing someone from outside the current pool of candidates. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 3: The appointment of a Black woman would be a significant step towards increasing diversity in the Senate, which aligns with Newsom's stated values and goals. (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
While there are valid reasons to consider both "yes" and "no" possibilities, the strength of the reasons in favor of appointing a Black woman (Reasons 1-3) outweigh those against it (Reasons 1-3). Newsom's explicit commitment and the fact that he has ruled out other candidates contribute to a strong likelihood of appointing a Black woman.

5. Initial probability: 85

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 85 might be excessively confident, as there are still various factors that could influence the appointment process. However, considering the explicit commitment and the ruling out of other candidates, it seems reasonable to start with a high probability. Another consideration is that Governor Newsom has a track record of making progressive and inclusive appointments, which supports the "yes" possibility.

7. Final prediction: *0.80*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.8
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2023 Major League Baseball World Series, which is scheduled to take place after the conclusion of the regular season on October 3, 2022, and will be held before November 4, 2023? The resolution criteria for this question are as follows: the question resolves as Yes if the Atlanta Braves win the 2023 World Series according to Major League Baseball and No for all other teams.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength of each reason: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Atlanta Braves have a strong divisional rival in the National League East, the New York Mets, and could potentially face them in the playoffs (Strength: 3)
- The Braves have had inconsistent performances in previous postseasons, which may impact their chances of winning the World Series (Strength: 4)
- The American League teams, particularly the New York Yankees and Houston Astros, have historically been strong contenders for the World Series title (Strength: 4)
- The Braves' starting rotation and bullpen may not be as deep as some other teams in the league, which could be a weakness in the postseason (Strength: 3)
- The Atlanta Braves have not won a World Series title since 1995, which could be a psychological factor affecting their performance (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength of each reason: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Atlanta Braves have a strong lineup with talented players like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies (Strength: 5)
- The Braves have a deep farm system and have made savvy trades to strengthen their roster (Strength: 4)
- The team has a strong manager in Brian Snitker, who has experience in the postseason (Strength: 4)
- The Braves have a good mix of veteran leadership and young talent, which can be beneficial in the postseason (Strength: 3)
- The team has a strong home-field advantage at Truist Park, which could give them an edge in the playoffs (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided above, the Atlanta Braves have a strong roster and management, but also face stiff competition from other teams in the league. Their inconsistent postseason performances and potential weaknesses in the rotation and bullpen are concerns. However, their talented lineup and deep farm system are significant strengths.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of the Atlanta Braves winning the 2023 World Series to be 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, but it may be too confident given the many variables that can affect the outcome of the World Series. The base rate of a team winning the World Series is low, and there are many factors that can influence the outcome, such as injuries, team chemistry, and luck. To account for this, I may want to consider a more conservative estimate.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the many variables that can affect the outcome of the World Series and the low base rate of a team winning, I would revise my initial probability to a more conservative estimate. Therefore, my final prediction is: *0.45*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2023 Major League Baseball World Series, which is scheduled to take place after the end of the regular season in 2023, and whose outcome will be determined by October 31, 2023, at the latest?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
    a. Injuries to key players: The Los Angeles Dodgers have a history of key players getting injured during the season, which can significantly impact their performance in the World Series. (Strength: 6/10)
    b. Strong competition in the National League: The National League has several strong teams that could potentially compete with the Dodgers in the World Series, such as the Atlanta Braves or the New York Mets. (Strength: 7/10)
    c. Postseason fatigue: The Dodgers have been in the playoffs several times in recent years, which can lead to fatigue and decreased performance in the World Series. (Strength: 5/10)
    d. Other teams' hot streaks: The World Series is often won by teams that are on a hot streak, and other teams could potentially catch fire and surpass the Dodgers. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
    a. Strong roster: The Dodgers have a talented roster with several key players, including Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Clayton Kershaw, who have a history of performing well in the postseason. (Strength: 9/10)
    b. Experienced manager: The Dodgers have a seasoned manager in Dave Roberts, who has experience in the playoffs and has led the team to several championships. (Strength: 8/10)
    c. Home-field advantage: The Dodgers have a strong home record and could potentially use their home-field advantage to their benefit in the World Series. (Strength: 7/10)
    d. Momentum from the regular season: The Dodgers finished the regular season with a strong record and could carry that momentum into the World Series. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that the Dodgers have a strong roster and experienced manager, which are significant advantages in the World Series. However, they also face strong competition in the National League and potential injuries to key players, which could impact their performance. Overall, the balance of reasons suggests that the Dodgers have a good chance of winning the World Series, but it's not a certainty.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Dodgers winning the World Series at 65%.

6. Evaluation of confidence:
The initial probability of 65% seems reasonable, but it may be too high given the uncertainty of the World Series outcome. The base rate of the Dodgers winning the World Series is not significantly higher than other teams, and there are several factors that could impact their performance. Therefore, the initial probability may be excessively confident.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2023 World Series, which is the annual championship series of the American Major League Baseball (MLB), held after the end of the 2023 regular season, before the question resolution date of November 4, 2023?

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Inconsistent team performance**: The Milwaukee Brewers may experience an inconsistent performance during the regular season, which could negatively impact their chances in the playoffs. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Competition from other teams**: The 2023 World Series will feature the best teams from both the American League (AL) and National League (NL), and the Brewers might face strong competition from teams like the Houston Astros, New York Yankees, or Los Angeles Dodgers. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Injuries to key players**: The Brewers may suffer injuries to key players during the regular season or playoffs, which could weaken their lineup and pitching staff. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Poor postseason experience**: The Brewers might not have enough postseason experience, which could affect their ability to perform under pressure in the World Series. (Strength: 4/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Strong regular season performance**: The Brewers have a strong regular season record, which indicates their potential to perform well in the playoffs. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Experience in the NL Central**: The Brewers are familiar with the NL Central division and have experience competing against their divisional opponents, which could give them an edge in the playoffs. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Well-rounded roster**: The Brewers have a well-rounded roster with a mix of experienced players and young talent, which could help them adapt to different situations in the World Series. (Strength: 8/10)
4. **Managerial experience**: The Brewers' manager has experience leading the team and has a good understanding of the roster, which could help them make strategic decisions during the World Series. (Strength: 6/10)

Aggregated considerations:
The Brewers have a strong regular season record and a well-rounded roster, which suggests they have a good chance of winning the World Series. However, they also face strong competition from other teams and may experience injuries or inconsistent performance. Considering these factors, I would rate their chances of winning the World Series at 60%.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident. The Brewers' chances of winning the World Series depend on various factors, and there is a significant amount of uncertainty involved. A more conservative approach would be to consider a lower probability, such as 40-50%. However, this would also be too cautious, as the Brewers do have a strong regular season record and a well-rounded roster.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2023 World Series, according to Major League Baseball, given the current date is October 2nd, 2023, and the World Series is scheduled to take place following the end of the regular season on October 3rd, 2023, and the question will be resolved by November 4th, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- The Philadelphia Phillies have a tough division in the National League East, which may have drained their resources and talent, weakening their chances (Strength: 6)
- The Phillies have a relatively young roster, which might make it difficult for them to navigate the long and grueling postseason schedule (Strength: 7)
- The Phillies' bullpen has been inconsistent this season, which could be a liability in the high-pressure World Series (Strength: 5)
- The Phillies will have to face other strong teams in the postseason, such as the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers, which may be too much for them to handle (Strength: 8)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- The Phillies have a strong lineup led by Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, which could be a game-changer in the postseason (Strength: 9)
- The Phillies have a solid starting rotation, with Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler leading the way (Strength: 8)
- The Phillies have a good mix of veteran leadership and young talent, which could give them an edge in the postseason (Strength: 7)
- The Phillies have a strong manager in Rob Thomson, who has experience leading the team to the postseason (Strength: 6)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Phillies have a strong lineup and rotation, but their bullpen has been inconsistent, and they face tough competition in the postseason. Their young roster may also be a liability. However, their veteran leadership and good mix of talent could give them an edge.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I would initially estimate the probability of the Phillies winning the 2023 World Series to be 40.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
My initial probability of 40% may be too low, considering the Phillies' strong lineup and rotation. However, the bullpen's inconsistency and the tough competition in the postseason may still give them a lower chance of winning. I should also consider the base rate of the event, which is around 1 in 30 teams winning the World Series each year. This may make my initial probability too high.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2023 World Series, according to Major League Baseball, given the current date of October 2, 2023, and the World Series taking place after the regular season ends on October 3, 2022, with the playoff bracket provided, before the question's resolution date of November 4, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The Miami Marlins have not been a top contender in recent years, and their performance might not be strong enough to make it to the World Series. (Strength: 4)
- The team's recent performance has been inconsistent, which could impact their chances of winning the World Series. (Strength: 3)
- Other teams, such as the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, or Houston Astros, might have stronger lineups and pitching, making it difficult for the Marlins to compete. (Strength: 5)
- The playoffs often involve a series of unpredictable events, and the Marlins might not be able to withstand the pressure and competition. (Strength: 4)
- The team's injuries or player suspensions might impact their performance during the playoffs. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The Miami Marlins have made some key roster moves and trades, which could strengthen their lineup and pitching. (Strength: 3)
- The team's manager or coaching staff might have a strategy that could help them succeed in the playoffs. (Strength: 2)
- The Marlins have a strong home-field advantage, which could give them an edge in the World Series. (Strength: 4)
- The team's young players might be motivated to prove themselves in the playoffs and make a deep run. (Strength: 3)
- The Marlins' recent performance in the regular season might be an indicator of their potential in the playoffs. (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the Marlins' chances of winning the World Series seem uncertain. While they have some strengths, such as a strong home-field advantage and a potentially improved roster, they also have significant weaknesses, including their recent inconsistent performance and the competition from other teams.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the Marlins' chances of winning the World Series to be around 12%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 12% seems relatively low, considering the Marlins' potential strengths. However, it also takes into account the team's recent inconsistent performance and the strong competition in the playoffs. The base rate of the event (winning the World Series) is also relatively low, as only one team can win the championship.

7. Final prediction:
*0.12*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.12
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2023 Major League Baseball World Series, given the current date of October 2, 2023, and the playoff bracket, before the conclusion of the 2023 World Series on November 4, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have a relatively new team roster and might struggle with team cohesion and chemistry (Strength: 6).
- The Diamondbacks have faced stiff competition in the National League, particularly from the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves (Strength: 8).
- The team's pitching staff might not have the depth and experience to compete against top-tier teams in the American League (Strength: 5).
- Injuries to key players can significantly impact a team's performance, and the Diamondbacks might suffer from key injuries (Strength: 4).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- The Diamondbacks have a strong offense led by players like Corbin Carroll and Christian Walker (Strength: 8).
- The team's manager, Torey Lovullo, has experience leading the team and has made strategic decisions that have paid off in the past (Strength: 6).
- The Diamondbacks have a solid bullpen with a mix of experienced and young pitchers (Strength: 7).
- The team's recent performance has been strong, indicating they have the potential to make a deep playoff run (Strength: 9).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses, the Diamondbacks have a solid foundation but face significant competition. Their strong offense and bullpen give them an advantage, but their pitching staff's depth and experience might be a concern. The team's recent performance and manager's experience are positives, but the stiff competition in the National League and potential injuries could impact their chances.

5. Initial probability: 40
The Diamondbacks have a solid team, but their competition and potential weaknesses give me pause. I'm not confident in their ability to win the World Series, but I don't think they're a long shot either.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be too low considering the Diamondbacks' recent performance. I didn't consider the base rate of the event, but I know that World Series winners often come from teams that have strong offenses and bullpens. The Diamondbacks meet this criteria, so I might be underestimating their chances.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2023 World Series, according to Major League Baseball, given that the 2023 World Series will be held following the end of the regular season on October 3, 2022, and considering the current date is October 2, 2023, and the question will be resolved on November 4, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
   - The Baltimore Orioles have not been consistent in their performance throughout the season, which might impact their chances in the playoffs. (Strength: 3)
   - The Orioles have a relatively weak pitching rotation, which could be a significant disadvantage in the World Series. (Strength: 4)
   - Other teams in the American League, such as the Houston Astros or the New York Yankees, have a strong lineup and pitching staff, making it difficult for the Orioles to compete. (Strength: 4)
   - The Orioles might face tough competition in the playoffs, and the pressure of the World Series could be overwhelming. (Strength: 2)
   - The Orioles have not won a World Series title in a long time, which could be a psychological disadvantage. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
   - The Orioles have a strong lineup with talented players like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, which could be a key factor in their success. (Strength: 4)
   - The Orioles have a good team defense, which could help them in the World Series. (Strength: 3)
   - The Orioles have been playing well in the second half of the season, showing improvement and momentum. (Strength: 3)
   - The Orioles have a strong bullpen, which could be a significant advantage in the World Series. (Strength: 4)
   - The Orioles have a good manager in Brandon Hyde, who has made strategic decisions that have helped the team succeed. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations: The Orioles have both strengths and weaknesses that could impact their chances in the World Series. While they have a strong lineup and bullpen, they also have a relatively weak pitching rotation and might face tough competition in the playoffs. However, they have been playing well in the second half of the season and have a good team defense.

5. Initial probability: 45 (I am 45% confident that the Orioles will win the 2023 World Series.)

6. Evaluation: My calculated probability might be not confident enough, considering the Orioles' strengths, such as their strong lineup and bullpen. However, I have also considered their weaknesses, such as their pitching rotation and potential competition in the playoffs. The base rate of the event (winning the World Series) is relatively low, as only one team can win the championship.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2023 World Series, according to Major League Baseball, before the question resolution date of 2023-11-04?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

   - The Tampa Bay Rays have not won a World Series title since 2008, which may indicate a lack of recent success. (Strength: 3)
   - The team's performance in the 2023 regular season may not be strong enough to carry over to the playoffs. (Strength: 2)
   - The American League East division is competitive, and the Rays may face stiff competition from other teams. (Strength: 4)
   - The team's bullpen may struggle to close out games, which could be a liability in the postseason. (Strength: 3)
   - Injuries to key players could impact the team's chances of winning the World Series. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

   - The Tampa Bay Rays have a strong core of young players who have shown promise in the past. (Strength: 4)
   - The team has a solid pitching staff, which is crucial in the postseason. (Strength: 5)
   - The Rays have a good manager in Kevin Cash, who has experience leading the team to the playoffs. (Strength: 3)
   - The team's analytics-driven approach may give them an edge in terms of in-game strategy. (Strength: 4)
   - The Rays have a strong farm system, which could provide a boost to the team in the future. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against the Tampa Bay Rays winning the 2023 World Series, it seems that the team has both strengths and weaknesses. The team's strong pitching staff and young core of players are significant advantages, but the lack of recent success and competitive division may be liabilities. Overall, it's a close call, but the team's strengths seem to outweigh their weaknesses.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Tampa Bay Rays winning the 2023 World Series as 55%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 55% seems reasonable, but it may be on the higher side given the team's lack of recent success. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the frequency of teams winning the World Series), it's not uncommon for teams to win the championship for the first time in many years. However, the team's recent performance and competitive division may still be a concern. To adjust for this, I would consider reducing the probability to around 45%.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Houston Astros win the 2023 World Series of the Major League Baseball (MLB) championship series, which will be held after the end of the regular season on October 3, 2022, and conclude by November 4, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
   a. The Astros have a history of inconsistent performance in the playoffs, often underperforming in the World Series. (Strength: 6/10)
   b. The 2023 MLB season has seen significant changes in team lineups and player trades, which could disrupt the Astros' rhythm. (Strength: 5/10)
   c. The Astros' pitching staff may struggle to contain strong offenses from other teams, potentially leading to early exits in the playoffs. (Strength: 7/10)
   d. The Astros' manager, Dusty Baker, may face challenges in making strategic decisions during the high-pressure World Series. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
   a. The Astros have a strong lineup with talented players like Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve, which could propel them to victory. (Strength: 8/10)
   b. The Astros' pitching staff has a deep rotation with experienced starters like Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez. (Strength: 9/10)
   c. The team has a solid bullpen with reliable closers like Ryan Pressly, which could help them secure wins in crucial games. (Strength: 8/10)
   d. The Astros have a strong team chemistry and a proven track record of success in the playoffs. (Strength: 9/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths of both the reasons for a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that the Astros have a strong foundation for success in the 2023 World Series. However, their inconsistent playoff performance and potential challenges in the pitching staff and management might hinder their chances.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially predict a 70% chance of the Astros winning the 2023 World Series.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident given the uncertainty surrounding the Astros' performance in the playoffs. The base rate of the event (winning the World Series) is relatively low, and there are many factors that could influence the outcome. A more conservative approach might be to reduce the initial probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2023 World Series of Major League Baseball, which will be held after the end of the regular season on October 3, 2022, and concludes on or before November 4, 2023, according to Major League Baseball's official schedule and rules?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The Texas Rangers have not appeared in the World Series since 2011 and have not won a championship since 2010. (Strength: 3)
- The team has had inconsistent performances in recent seasons, finishing with a record of 68-94 in 2021 and 66-96 in 2022. (Strength: 4)
- The American League is highly competitive, with multiple strong teams like the Houston Astros, New York Yankees, and Tampa Bay Rays. (Strength: 5)
- The Texas Rangers have not had significant roster changes or upgrades that would indicate a substantial improvement in their chances. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The Texas Rangers have a strong young core, including players like Adolis Garcia and Jonathan Ornelas, who have shown promise in recent seasons. (Strength: 3)
- The team has a good manager in Bruce Bochy, who has experience leading teams to championships. (Strength: 4)
- The Rangers have a strong farm system, which could provide them with future talent and depth. (Strength: 4)
- The team has a good chance to compete in the American League West division, given the Houston Astros' recent injuries and the Los Angeles Angels' inconsistent performance. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Texas Rangers have a history of inconsistency and have not appeared in the World Series recently. However, they have a strong young core and a good farm system, which could provide them with future success. The team's manager, Bruce Bochy, has experience leading teams to championships, and they have a chance to compete in the American League West division.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the Texas Rangers winning the 2023 World Series to be around 20.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 20 may be too low, given the Rangers' young core and strong farm system. However, the team's history of inconsistency and lack of recent success may be a more significant factor in their chances. Considering the base rate of World Series winners, it's also worth noting that the Rangers are not a top contender, but they do have a chance to compete.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2023 World Series, according to Major League Baseball, given the information that the World Series is the annual championship series of the American MLB and it will be held following the end of the regular season on October 3, 2022? The question resolves Yes for the Toronto Blue Jays if they win the 2023 World Series and No for all other teams.

Reasons why the answer might be No (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Injury to key players** (Strength: 3): The Toronto Blue Jays may have key players injured during the regular season or the playoffs, which could affect their performance in the World Series. (Reason for uncertainty: Injuries are unpredictable and can have a significant impact on a team's chances.)
2. **Competition from other teams** (Strength: 4): The 2023 MLB season has seen strong performances from several teams, including the Houston Astros, New York Yankees, and Los Angeles Dodgers, which could make it difficult for the Toronto Blue Jays to win the World Series. (Reason for uncertainty: Other teams have shown strong performances and could potentially upset the Blue Jays.)
3. **Home-field advantage** (Strength: 2): The World Series is typically held in a best-of-seven format, with the team with home-field advantage hosting Games 1, 2, 6, and 7. However, this advantage may not be significant if the Blue Jays are able to perform well on the road. (Reason for uncertainty: Home-field advantage is not always a guarantee of success.)
4. **Managerial decisions** (Strength: 2): The Toronto Blue Jays' manager may make decisions that hinder the team's chances of winning the World Series, such as overusing key players or making poor in-game decisions. (Reason for uncertainty: Managerial decisions can have a significant impact on a team's performance.)
5. **Unpredictability of the playoffs** (Strength: 5): The MLB playoffs are notoriously unpredictable, with upsets and unexpected performances common. (Reason for uncertainty: The playoffs are inherently unpredictable, making it difficult to forecast the outcome.)

Reasons why the answer might be Yes (Strength: 1-5):

1. **Strong regular season performance** (Strength: 4): The Toronto Blue Jays have had a strong regular season, which could translate to success in the playoffs. (Reason for confidence: A strong regular season performance is often a good indicator of a team's potential in the playoffs.)
2. **Depth and talent** (Strength: 4): The Blue Jays have a deep and talented roster, which could give them an advantage over other teams in the playoffs. (Reason for confidence: A strong roster is essential for success in the playoffs.)
3. **Experience in the playoffs** (Strength: 3): The Blue Jays have experience playing in the playoffs, which could help them navigate the postseason and make adjustments as needed. (Reason for confidence: Experience in the playoffs can be beneficial in terms of adapting to different situations and opponents.)
4. **Coaching and leadership** (Strength: 3): The Blue Jays' coaching staff and leadership may be able to make key adjustments and motivate the team to perform well in the playoffs. (Reason for confidence: A good coaching staff and leadership can make a significant difference in a team's performance.)
5. **Home-field advantage** (Strength: 2): The Blue Jays may have home-field advantage in the World Series, which could give them an edge in the series. (Reason for confidence: Home-field advantage can be beneficial, especially in a best-of-seven format.)

Aggregated considerations:
The Toronto Blue Jays have a strong regular season performance, a deep and talented roster, and experience in the playoffs. However, they also face competition from other teams and may be impacted by injuries, managerial decisions, and the unpredictability of the playoffs.

Initial probability: 45

Evaluation:
The initial probability of 45 seems relatively low, considering the Blue Jays' strong regular season performance and talented roster. However, the unpredictability of the playoffs and the potential for injuries and managerial decisions to impact the team's chances may justify a lower probability. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of any team winning the World Series), it's essential to note that the Blue Jays are one of many teams competing for the championship.

Final prediction: *0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2023 World Series, as determined by Major League Baseball, within the timeframe from the end of the regular season on October 3, 2022, to the end of the World Series in November 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
   - The Minnesota Twins have not won the World Series in recent years (Strength: 4). They last won the World Series in 1987 and 1991.
   - The team's performance in the 2023 season might not be strong enough to carry them through the playoffs (Strength: 6). Their regular season performance is not yet known.
   - Other teams in the league, such as the New York Yankees, Houston Astros, or Los Angeles Dodgers, might have a stronger team (Strength: 8). These teams have a history of winning the World Series.
   - Injuries to key players can significantly impact a team's chances (Strength: 9). If the Twins suffer significant injuries, their chances of winning the World Series might decrease.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
   - The Twins have a strong farm system, which can provide a boost to their roster (Strength: 5). They have a good pipeline of young talent that can contribute to their success.
   - The team's manager, Rocco Baldelli, has experience leading the team and might make strategic decisions that give them an edge (Strength: 4). He has been managing the Twins since 2019.
   - The Twins have a strong home-field advantage at Target Field, which can give them an edge in the playoffs (Strength: 3). They have a good record at home and might be able to capitalize on this advantage in the playoffs.
   - The Twins have a deep roster with multiple strong players, including Jose Miranda, Carlos Correa, and Sonny Gray (Strength: 8). This depth can help them overcome injuries and make a deep playoff run.

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Twins have some strengths, such as their farm system and deep roster, but also have some weaknesses, such as their recent World Series drought and the competition from other teams. Considering these factors, I would say that their chances of winning the World Series are moderate.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the above considerations, I would initially estimate their chances of winning the World Series at 40%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
My initial probability of 40% might be too low, considering that the Twins have a strong farm system and a deep roster. However, it's also possible that other teams, such as the Yankees or Astros, might have a stronger team. I should consider the base rate of the event, which is that the Twins winning the World Series is a relatively rare occurrence. This might make my initial probability too high.

7. Final prediction:
*0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Kevin McCarthy (R) be elected as the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following his removal from the position, given that he has been ousted as Speaker on October 2nd, 2023, and considering the current context and dynamics within the 118th U.S. Congress, as well as the Speaker election process and the potential candidates for the position?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strong to weak):
- Reason 1: Kevin McCarthy's removal as Speaker on October 2nd, 2023, indicates significant opposition within his own party, which may make it challenging for him to regain the position. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: The hardline Republicans who opposed McCarthy's leadership may still hold significant influence within the party and could potentially block his re-election. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: McCarthy's concessions to win the speakership initially, including making it easier to oust the Speaker, may have created a precedent that could be used against him in his re-election bid. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 4: McCarthy's willingness to compromise on the stopgap funding bill, which angered some hardline Republicans, may have damaged his credibility within the party. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strong to weak):
- Reason 1: Kevin McCarthy has already served as Speaker and has experience navigating the complexities of the position, which could give him an advantage in his re-election bid. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: McCarthy's statement that he is willing to risk his job to stand up for the American public may indicate his commitment to the position and his willingness to fight for it. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: The Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress, which could provide McCarthy with a strong foundation for his re-election bid. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 4: McCarthy's experience in negotiating with Democrats and passing legislation may have earned him some goodwill and credibility within the party. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that the factors weighing against McCarthy's re-election are significant, particularly his removal from the position and the opposition from hardline Republicans. However, his experience as Speaker and his willingness to take risks for the position may still give him a chance. Overall, the balance of evidence suggests that McCarthy's re-election is uncertain.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 40% may be too low, considering that McCarthy has already served as Speaker and has experience navigating the position. However, the opposition from hardline Republicans and his removal from the position are significant factors that cannot be ignored. A more realistic probability might be higher, but not excessively high, given the uncertainty surrounding the situation.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Jim Jordan (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal, given the current dynamics of the Republican Party and the history of the House of Representatives, according to credible news reports?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- Reason 1: Jim Jordan's conservative stance might alienate moderate Republicans who were previously aligned with Kevin McCarthy. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: The House of Representatives has a history of voting for the Speaker without reaching the 218-vote threshold, but this might not be applicable in this scenario, as the circumstances are different. (Strength: 4/10)
- Reason 3: Jim Jordan might face opposition from the same faction that led to Kevin McCarthy's downfall, making it difficult for him to gain enough votes. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 4: The base rate of a Speaker being removed and replaced within the same Congress is low, which might suggest that the likelihood of Jim Jordan being elected is also low. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- Reason 1: Jim Jordan has been a prominent figure in the Republican Party and has built a strong following among conservatives, which could give him a solid base of support. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: The removal of Kevin McCarthy might create an opportunity for a new leader to emerge, and Jim Jordan might be well-positioned to capitalize on this. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: The Republican Party's right-wing faction, which was instrumental in McCarthy's downfall, might still support Jim Jordan as a more conservative alternative. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 4: The House of Representatives has a history of electing Speakers who have not reached the 218-vote threshold, which could be a precedent for Jim Jordan's election. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against Jim Jordan being elected Speaker, it seems that the factors in favor of his election are slightly stronger than those against it. However, the strength of the opposition to Jim Jordan is not negligible, and the base rate of a Speaker being removed and replaced within the same Congress is low.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 55 seems reasonable, given the considerations above. However, it might be slightly too confident, as the factors against Jim Jordan's election are not insignificant. Additionally, the base rate of a Speaker being removed and replaced within the same Congress is low, which might suggest that the likelihood of Jim Jordan being elected is lower than initially thought.

7. Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Given the removal of Kevin McCarthy as the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, will Andy Biggs (R) be elected as the new Speaker of the House for the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports, within the given timeframe (October 3, 2023, to November 15, 2023)?

**Reasons Why the Answer Might Be No:**

1. **Lack of Clear Support**: The article does not mention Andy Biggs as a strong contender for the Speaker position. His chances of being elected might be low due to a lack of clear support from the Republican caucus. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Fractured Republican Caucus**: The Republican Party is known to be fractured, and the removal of Kevin McCarthy suggests that the party is still struggling to unite behind a leader. This could make it difficult for Andy Biggs to gain the necessary votes. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Alternative Candidates**: The article does not mention any other potential candidates, but it's possible that other Republicans might throw their hats into the ring, potentially splitting the vote and making it difficult for Andy Biggs to win. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Democratic Opposition**: Although Democrats voted to remove Kevin McCarthy, they might not necessarily support Andy Biggs as a replacement. If they were to oppose him, it could make it harder for him to reach the necessary majority. (Strength: 4/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might Be Yes:**

1. **Andy Biggs' Experience**: Andy Biggs has been a member of the House of Representatives since 2017 and has experience leading the House Freedom Caucus, which might give him an edge in terms of leadership skills and knowledge of the House procedures. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Conservative Support**: As a member of the House Freedom Caucus, Andy Biggs might have the support of conservative Republicans who are looking for a leader who shares their views. (Strength: 9/10)
3. **Lack of Clear Alternatives**: The article does not mention any other strong contenders for the Speaker position, which might make Andy Biggs the default choice for the Republican caucus. (Strength: 8/10)
4. **Republican Party's Need for Unity**: The Republican Party needs to present a united front to counter the Democratic opposition, and electing a Speaker who can unite the party might be a priority. Andy Biggs' experience and conservative credentials might make him an attractive choice for this role. (Strength: 8/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Based on the reasons above, I would rate the likelihood of Andy Biggs being elected as the new Speaker of the House as follows:

* Strengths: 8.6/10 (average of 8, 9, 8, and 8)
* Weaknesses: 5.6/10 (average of 6, 7, 5, and 4)

**Initial Probability:**

Given the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Andy Biggs being elected as the new Speaker of the House as 65%.

**Evaluation of Initial Probability:**

The initial probability of 65% might be considered moderately confident. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a Speaker being elected in a similar scenario) and the potential for new information to emerge that might affect the outcome.

**Final Prediction:**

*0.63*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.63
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will Jim Banks (R) be elected as the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal, given that a simple majority of House members who are voting is required, and considering the current Republican Party majority in the 118th Congress?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reason 1: Jim Banks may not have enough support within the Republican Party to secure the necessary votes. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: The process of removing McCarthy was chaotic, and it's uncertain whether a new candidate like Jim Banks can unite the fractured Republican caucus. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: The Republican Party's internal dynamics may not favor a candidate like Jim Banks, who may be seen as too moderate or not conservative enough by some hardline Republicans. (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 4: The Democratic Party may not provide enough support for Jim Banks, potentially making it difficult for him to reach the required majority. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Reason 1: Jim Banks has been a prominent figure in the Republican Party and may have enough support from his fellow Republicans to secure the speakership. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: The Republican Party's majority in the 118th Congress may provide a clear advantage for a Republican candidate like Jim Banks. (Strength: 9/10)
- Reason 3: Jim Banks may be able to appeal to a broad range of Republicans, including both moderates and hardliners, which could help him secure the necessary votes. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 4: The fact that Jim Banks is a Republican and the party holds the majority in the House may make it more likely that he will be elected as Speaker. (Strength: 9/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
- The Republican Party's majority in the 118th Congress and the fact that Jim Banks is a Republican candidate are strong advantages for his election.
- The process of removing McCarthy was chaotic, and it's uncertain whether a new candidate like Jim Banks can unite the fractured Republican caucus.
- The Democratic Party's potential support for Jim Banks may not be crucial in securing his election, given the Republican majority.
- Jim Banks' ability to appeal to a broad range of Republicans and his prominence within the party may help him secure the necessary votes.

5. Initial probability: 65

6. Evaluation:
- The initial probability of 65 seems reasonable, given the aggregated considerations. However, it may be slightly too confident, as the Republican Party's internal dynamics are uncertain, and the process of removing McCarthy was chaotic.
- The base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of a Republican being elected as Speaker in a Republican-majority House) is not explicitly known but is likely high.
- Other factors that might affect the forecast include the potential for a third-party candidate or a compromise candidate, the role of external factors like public opinion, and the specific dynamics of the Republican caucus.

7. Final prediction: *0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Patrick McHenry (R) be elected as the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal, according to credible news reports, by the end of the 2023-11-15 deadline?

The Speaker of the House is a crucial position in the U.S. government, with the power to set the legislative agenda and preside over the House of Representatives. After Kevin McCarthy's removal, the Republican Party will need to choose a new Speaker to lead the House. Patrick McHenry, a Republican representative, is a potential candidate for the position.

The Speaker of the House is chosen by a simple majority of House members voting, which means that at least 218 votes are required to win. However, lawmakers can also vote "present," which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Given the Republican Party's majority in the 118th Congress, the process of electing a new Speaker could be challenging and may involve negotiations and concessions.

Considering the current situation and the information provided, what are the chances that Patrick McHenry (R) will be elected as the Speaker of the House following Kevin McCarthy's removal?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- Reason 1: McHenry might not have the necessary support within the Republican Party to secure the required votes. The Republican Party is fractured, and hardline conservatives may oppose him. Strength: 7/10
- Reason 2: The removal of Kevin McCarthy was a surprise, and it's unclear how the Republican Party will react to the power vacuum. McHenry might not be the preferred candidate among some Republicans. Strength: 6/10
- Reason 3: McHenry might not be able to overcome the opposition from Democrats, who may not want to see a Republican Speaker. Strength: 4/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- Reason 1: McHenry has been a key ally of Kevin McCarthy and has supported him in the past. He may have the necessary connections and support within the Republican Party to secure the required votes. Strength: 8/10
- Reason 2: McHenry has been involved in negotiations with Democrats and has shown a willingness to work across the aisle. This might make him a more palatable candidate for some Democrats. Strength: 7/10
- Reason 3: McHenry has experience as a member of the House and has held leadership positions within the Republican Party. He may have the necessary skills and experience to lead the House. Strength: 8/10

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons provided, I would say that the chances of McHenry being elected as the Speaker of the House are influenced by the strength of his support within the Republican Party and his ability to overcome opposition from Democrats. While there are valid reasons to doubt his chances, there are also reasons to believe that he has a strong foundation to become the Speaker.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation of confidence:
My initial probability of 40 seems relatively cautious, given the reasons why McHenry might be elected. However, I want to consider the base rate of the event and the fact that the Speaker of the House is a crucial position that often requires a consensus among party members. I might be underestimating the challenges McHenry will face in securing the necessary votes.

7. Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Elise Stefanik (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal, considering the current political climate, party dynamics, and the process of electing a new Speaker of the House in the 118th U.S. Congress, as reported by credible news sources, by November 15, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- Reason 1: Elise Stefanik might not have the necessary support from the Republican Party's far-right faction, who might prefer another candidate or seek to block her from becoming Speaker (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: The process of electing a new Speaker could be prolonged, with multiple candidates vying for the position, which might lead to a delay in finding a consensus (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 3: Elise Stefanik's past actions and policies might not align with the views of a majority of House members, potentially making her an unappealing candidate for the position (Strength: 4/10)
- Reason 4: The Democratic Party might try to block Elise Stefanik's election by voting against her, potentially in an attempt to gain leverage or influence the outcome (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- Reason 1: Elise Stefanik has a strong reputation within the Republican Party and has been a loyal supporter of Kevin McCarthy, which might earn her the support of some party members (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: As a member of the House Republican leadership team, Elise Stefanik has experience in navigating the complexities of House politics, which might make her a more attractive candidate for the position (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: Elise Stefanik has built relationships with various factions within the Republican Party, including the far-right, which might help her secure the necessary votes for election (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 4: The Republican Party's majority status in the House might give Elise Stefanik an advantage in the election process, as she would likely have the support of her party's majority members (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the provided information and my analysis, the factors in favor of Elise Stefanik being elected Speaker of the House seem to outweigh those against her. However, the Republican Party's internal dynamics and the potential for unexpected events to occur during the election process introduce uncertainty.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of confidence level:
My initial probability of 60 might be considered not confident enough, given the importance of the Speaker of the House position and the potential for significant consequences of the election outcome. I should consider the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a Speaker being elected in a similar situation) and the fact that Elise Stefanik has a strong reputation within the Republican Party.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and expanded question:**

Will Hakeem Jeffries (D) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal, considering the current political climate and the Republican Party's fractured state, as well as the Speaker's role in the U.S. government and the requirements for election?

**Reasons why the answer might be no:**

1. **Party divisions and potential opposition from Republicans**: The Republican Party is fractured, and some members may still be loyal to Kevin McCarthy or have differing opinions on who should lead the party. This could lead to opposition to Hakeem Jeffries or other Democratic candidates. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Potential for a Republican candidate to emerge**: Although Kevin McCarthy has been removed, it's possible that a Republican candidate could still emerge and challenge Hakeem Jeffries for the Speaker position. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Democratic infighting**: Although Hakeem Jeffries is the clear frontrunner, there may be internal Democratic Party disagreements that could impact his chances of being elected Speaker. (Strength: 4/10)
4. **Unpredictability of the situation**: The removal of Kevin McCarthy and the subsequent power vacuum creates an unpredictable environment, making it difficult to accurately forecast the outcome. (Strength: 8/10)

**Reasons why the answer might be yes:**

1. **Hakeem Jeffries' position as the clear Democratic frontrunner**: As the House Minority Leader, Hakeem Jeffries has a strong position within the Democratic Party and is likely to be the party's choice for Speaker. (Strength: 9/10)
2. **Republican divisions and lack of a clear alternative**: The Republican Party's fractured state and lack of a clear alternative to Hakeem Jeffries make it more likely that he will be elected Speaker. (Strength: 8/10)
3. **Historical precedent**: Hakeem Jeffries' experience as House Minority Leader and his seniority within the Democratic Party make him a strong candidate for Speaker, following the precedent set by Nancy Pelosi and John Boehner. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Democratic unity**: The Democratic Party is likely to be unified behind Hakeem Jeffries, which could make it more difficult for Republicans to block his election as Speaker. (Strength: 6/10)

**Aggregated considerations:**

Based on the reasons provided, I weigh the strength of each argument and consider the overall context. The Republican Party's divisions and potential opposition to Hakeem Jeffries are significant concerns, but the lack of a clear alternative and Hakeem Jeffries' strong position within the Democratic Party make him a strong candidate for Speaker. The unpredictable nature of the situation and potential for Democratic infighting also play a role, but I believe Hakeem Jeffries' strengths outweigh these concerns.

**Initial probability: 70**

**Evaluation of initial probability:**

My initial probability of 70% may be slightly too confident, given the unpredictable nature of the situation and the potential for unexpected events to impact the outcome. However, I believe that Hakeem Jeffries' strengths and the Republican Party's divisions make him a strong candidate for Speaker.

**Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Don Bacon (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal, given the current context of the 118th U.S. Congress, the Republican Party's majority, and the dynamics within the party, including the recent ousting of Kevin McCarthy and the potential for a contentious speaker election?

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 6/10):
1. **Lack of information about Don Bacon's candidacy**: There is no clear indication that Don Bacon is a strong candidate for the speaker position, or that he has the support of the Republican Party or its members. (Strength: 4/10)
2. **The Republican Party is fractured**: The party's divisions and hardline factions may make it difficult for any candidate to secure the necessary votes, including Don Bacon. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Don Bacon's voting record and leadership style may not align with the hardline Republicans**: If Don Bacon's voting record and leadership style do not align with the views of the hardline Republicans, it may be difficult for him to secure their support. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Other candidates may emerge**: There may be other candidates who emerge as alternatives to Don Bacon, potentially splitting the vote and making it harder for him to secure the necessary votes. (Strength: 4/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 8/10):
1. **Don Bacon has a moderate voting record**: As a moderate Republican, Don Bacon may be able to appeal to a broader range of voters within the party, potentially securing the necessary votes. (Strength: 7/10)
2. **He has experience in the House**: As a current member of the House, Don Bacon has experience working with colleagues and may be able to build alliances and secure support. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **The Republican Party may be looking for a unifying figure**: After the ousting of Kevin McCarthy, the party may be looking for a unifying figure who can bring the party together, and Don Bacon's moderate record and experience may make him a strong candidate for this role. (Strength: 8/10)
4. **Don Bacon has a strong track record of working with Democrats**: As a moderate Republican, Don Bacon has a history of working with Democrats, which may make him a more appealing candidate to some Republicans who value bipartisanship. (Strength: 6/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I believe that Don Bacon's chances of being elected Speaker of the House are higher than initially thought, due to his moderate voting record, experience in the House, and potential appeal to a broader range of voters within the party.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation:
My initial probability may be too low, given the reasons why the answer might be yes. I may have underestimated the potential for Don Bacon to secure the necessary votes due to his moderate record and experience. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of any Republican being elected Speaker of the House) is relatively high, given the Republican Party's majority.

Final prediction: *0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Steve Scalise (R) be elected as the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following the removal of Kevin McCarthy (R) from the position, according to credible news reports, by the end of the 2023-11-15 deadline?

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Lack of clear support from hardline Republicans**: Steve Scalise might not have the full support of the hardline Republicans who were opposed to Kevin McCarthy's leadership. This could lead to a challenge from within the Republican party, potentially making it difficult for Scalise to secure the necessary votes. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Scalise's past disagreements with McCarthy**: Scalise and McCarthy have had their differences in the past, and Scalise might not be the first choice among some Republican members. This could lead to a divided vote or even a challenge from another Republican candidate. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Gaetz's influence**: Matt Gaetz, who led the effort to remove McCarthy, might still have influence within the Republican party and could potentially back another candidate or cause trouble for Scalise. (Strength: 4/10)
4. **Potential for a dark horse candidate**: There might be another Republican candidate who emerges as a dark horse, challenging Scalise's bid for the speakership. (Strength: 3/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Scalise's seniority and experience**: As the House Majority Leader, Scalise has significant experience and seniority, which could give him an advantage in the speaker election. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Support from the Republican establishment**: Scalise is likely to have the support of the Republican establishment, including many moderate and conservative Republicans who might see him as a more stable and effective leader than McCarthy. (Strength: 8/10)
3. **Lack of clear alternatives**: Without a clear alternative candidate, Scalise might be the default choice for Speaker, especially if the hardline Republicans do not coalesce around another candidate. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Scalise's past performance**: Scalise has a strong track record as a leader and has been seen as a more effective and less divisive figure than McCarthy. This could make him a more attractive choice for many Republicans. (Strength: 7/10)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the above points, I believe that Scalise has a strong chance of being elected as the Speaker of the House. While there are potential challenges and uncertainties, his seniority, experience, and support from the Republican establishment give him an advantage. The lack of clear alternatives and his past performance also work in his favor.

Initial probability: 70

Evaluation:

My initial probability might be slightly overconfident, as there are still many uncertainties and potential challenges that could arise. However, I have considered the available information and the context of the situation, and I believe that Scalise has a strong chance of being elected.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Donald Trump be elected as the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following the removal of Kevin McCarthy, considering the current political climate, Republican Party dynamics, and potential opposition from within the party, according to credible news reports, by November 15, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- **Strength: 7/10**: Donald Trump's polarizing figure and potential difficulties in uniting the Republican Party behind him could lead to a divided vote, making it challenging for him to secure the required majority.
- **Strength: 6/10**: Trump's past experience in the White House and his current role as an ex-president might not translate to the same level of influence or authority within the House of Representatives, potentially limiting his ability to secure the speakership.
- **Strength: 5/10**: The Republican Party's right wing, which has been critical of McCarthy, might not necessarily support Trump as a replacement, potentially creating an alternative candidate or faction that could block his path to the speakership.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- **Strength: 8/10**: Trump's significant influence within the Republican Party, particularly among its conservative base, could provide a strong foundation for his candidacy and help him secure the necessary votes.
- **Strength: 7/10**: Trump's experience in the White House and his ability to navigate complex political situations might give him an advantage in building coalitions and securing support within the House of Representatives.
- **Strength: 6/10**: Trump's popularity among some conservative Republicans and his ability to rally support among the party's base could help him overcome potential opposition and secure the speakership.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against, I weigh the strength of each argument. The reasons for a "yes" outcome seem more substantial, with two strong arguments and one moderate one. The reasons for a "no" outcome are weaker, with two moderate arguments and one relatively weak one. This suggests that Trump's chances of being elected Speaker are higher than not.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The calculated probability seems somewhat confident, but not excessively so. However, I didn't consider the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a Speaker being elected from outside the current House leadership). This could affect the forecast, as Trump is a relatively unusual candidate for the speakership. Additionally, the time frame for the event (by November 15, 2023) might be quite short, which could impact the likelihood of a smooth transition.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Byron Donalds (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal, considering the potential candidates and the dynamics within the Republican Party, before the November 15th question close date?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Party divisions and infighting**: The Republican Party is known for its internal divisions, and the removal of Kevin McCarthy might lead to further infighting, making it challenging for Byron Donalds or any other candidate to gain the necessary support to become the Speaker. Strength: 7/10
- **Reason 2: Alternative candidates**: There might be other Republican members who could potentially run for the Speaker position, and Byron Donalds might not be the most popular or well-supported candidate. Strength: 5/10
- **Reason 3: Lack of experience**: Byron Donalds is a relatively new member of Congress, which might make it challenging for him to gain the trust and support of his colleagues. Strength: 4/10
- **Reason 4: Gaetz's influence**: Matt Gaetz, who filed the resolution to remove Kevin McCarthy, might continue to exert his influence and potentially block Byron Donalds' bid for the Speaker position. Strength: 6/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Republican Party unity**: The Republican Party might come together to support a single candidate, and Byron Donalds could be that candidate. Strength: 8/10
- **Reason 2: Donalds' popularity**: Byron Donalds has gained popularity within the Republican Party, particularly among the conservative wing, which could help him gain the necessary support to become the Speaker. Strength: 7/10
- **Reason 3: McCarthy's concessions**: Kevin McCarthy's concessions to hardline Republicans might not have been enough, and Byron Donalds could be seen as a more conservative alternative who can satisfy the party's right wing. Strength: 6/10
- **Reason 4: Party leadership support**: If key party leaders, such as Minority Leader Steve Scalise, support Byron Donalds, it could help him gain the necessary votes to become the Speaker. Strength: 8/10

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons for a "yes" outcome seem to outweigh the reasons for a "no" outcome, but the strength of the reasons is not evenly distributed. The party's internal divisions and potential alternative candidates are significant concerns, but the popularity of Byron Donalds and potential party leadership support could help him gain the necessary votes.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Byron Donalds being elected Speaker of the House at 60.

6. Evaluation of confidence:
My initial probability might be too confident, as the Republican Party's internal dynamics are notoriously unpredictable. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a Speaker being elected) is relatively low, as it requires a simple majority of votes. Considering these factors, I might adjust my initial probability downward.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Fred Upton (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 118th Congress following Kevin McCarthy's removal, according to credible news reports, given the current political climate and the Republican Party's fractured caucus, considering the party's right-wing members are likely to seek a more conservative candidate to replace McCarthy?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- Strength: 6/10
Reason: The Republican Party's right-wing members, who were dissatisfied with McCarthy's concessions to Democrats, might not support Upton, who is considered a more moderate Republican. They might prefer a more conservative candidate.

- Strength: 4/10
Reason: Upton's lack of experience as a leader in the House of Representatives might make it difficult for him to garner enough support from his fellow Republicans, who might prefer a more seasoned candidate.

- Strength: 5/10
Reason: The Republican Party's internal divisions and the presence of other potential candidates might make it challenging for Upton to secure the necessary votes to become the Speaker.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- Strength: 7/10
Reason: As a senior member of the House Republican Conference and the former Chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Upton has significant experience and a strong reputation, which could help him build a broad coalition of support among Republicans.

- Strength: 8/10
Reason: Upton's moderate stance and ability to work across the aisle might appeal to some Democrats and independents, potentially gaining him votes in a Speaker election where a majority is required.

- Strength: 6/10
Reason: The Republican Party's desire to maintain a unified front and avoid further internal divisions might lead them to coalesce around Upton, a more moderate candidate who can appeal to a broader range of voters.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that Upton's experience, moderate stance, and ability to work across the aisle are significant advantages in his favor. However, the Republican Party's internal divisions and the presence of other potential candidates create uncertainty. The strength of these factors makes me lean towards a moderate probability of Upton being elected Speaker.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability seems relatively low, considering the factors in Upton's favor. However, the uncertainty surrounding the Republican Party's internal dynamics and the potential for other candidates to emerge might make it difficult for Upton to secure the necessary votes. The base rate of a Speaker being removed and replaced is low, which might also influence my initial probability.

7. Final prediction: *0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Kevin Hern (R) be elected as the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal, given the current dynamics of the Republican Party and the 118th U.S. Congress, according to credible news reports?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 60%**: Kevin Hern is not a well-known figure in the Republican Party, and his lack of seniority and experience might make it difficult for him to garner enough support from the party's hardliners.
- **Strength: 40%**: The removal of Kevin McCarthy might create a power vacuum, and other potential candidates might emerge to challenge Kevin Hern for the Speaker position.
- **Strength: 20%**: The Republican Party's internal divisions and infighting might lead to a prolonged and contentious Speaker selection process, potentially favoring a more established figure.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 80%**: Kevin Hern has been mentioned as a potential candidate to replace Kevin McCarthy, indicating that he has some level of support within the party.
- **Strength: 60%**: The fact that Kevin McCarthy offered concessions to win the Speaker position in the past suggests that the party is willing to compromise and work with different factions, which could benefit Kevin Hern.
- **Strength: 40%**: Kevin Hern's relatively moderate stance might appeal to a broader range of Republicans, allowing him to build a coalition and secure the necessary votes.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against Kevin Hern's election, it seems that his chances are relatively high, but not extremely likely. The Republican Party's internal dynamics and Kevin Hern's relatively unknown status make it a challenging environment for him to secure the Speaker position.

5. Initial probability:
70

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too high given the Republican Party's internal divisions and Kevin Hern's lack of experience. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a new Speaker being elected after a previous one is removed) is relatively low, which should be taken into account when making the final prediction.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling of 11,000 or more before January 1, 2024, following the UN Security Council's consideration of the mission's future and the DRC President's request to accelerate the mission's withdrawal? This question is based on the information that the UN Security Council has expressed its readiness to decide on the future of MONUSCO and its gradual, responsible, and sustainable withdrawal by the end of 2023, and that the current mandate has a troop ceiling of 13,500 military personnel. The question will resolve as Yes if the UN Security Council extends the mission with a troop ceiling of 11,000 or more military personnel before January 1, 2024, and as No if the mission is not extended or extended with a troop ceiling below 11,000.

Reasons why the answer might be No (Strength: 8/10):
1. The DRC President has requested an accelerated withdrawal of MONUSCO, which might lead to a reduction in the troop ceiling rather than an increase. (Strength: 7/10)
2. The UN Security Council has expressed its readiness to decide on the future of MONUSCO, which might imply a reduction in the troop ceiling as part of the mission's gradual withdrawal. (Strength: 6/10)
3. The current mandate has a troop ceiling of 13,500, and reducing it to 11,000 might be seen as a compromise between the DRC government's request for an accelerated withdrawal and the need to maintain a sufficient military presence in the region. (Strength: 5/10)

Reasons why the answer might be Yes (Strength: 9/10):
1. The UN Security Council has expressed its readiness to decide on the future of MONUSCO, which implies that the mission's mandate might be extended with a troop ceiling of 11,000 or more. (Strength: 8/10)
2. The current mandate has a troop ceiling of 13,500, and it is possible that the UN Security Council might choose to maintain or increase the troop ceiling as part of the mission's gradual withdrawal. (Strength: 7/10)
3. The UN Security Council's decision to extend the mission's mandate in December 2022 with a troop ceiling of 13,500 suggests that the council is willing to maintain a significant military presence in the region. (Strength: 6/10)

Aggregated considerations: The reasons for a No answer are somewhat plausible, but the reasons for a Yes answer are stronger. The UN Security Council's decision to extend the mission's mandate in December 2022 with a troop ceiling of 13,500 suggests that the council is willing to maintain a significant military presence in the region. However, the DRC President's request for an accelerated withdrawal and the UN Security Council's readiness to decide on the future of MONUSCO create uncertainty.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of initial probability: The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, but it might be too low. The reasons for a Yes answer are stronger, and the UN Security Council's decision to extend the mission's mandate in December 2022 with a troop ceiling of 13,500 suggests that the council is willing to maintain a significant military presence in the region.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Nancy Mace (R) be elected as the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal, given that she is a Republican Representative and has been a key figure in the House, but considering the dynamics of the Republican caucus and the historical precedent of the Speaker's election requiring a simple majority of voting members?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 60%** Nancy Mace has been a vocal critic of Kevin McCarthy's leadership, but it's unclear if she has the necessary support from the Republican caucus to become the Speaker. Her past disagreements with McCarthy might not translate to an automatic win.
- **Strength: 30%** The Republican Party is fractured, and there might be other candidates who could potentially emerge as a more viable alternative to Nancy Mace. The dynamics of the party's internal politics could shift in favor of another candidate.
- **Strength: 10%** Nancy Mace's voting record and public statements might not align with the more conservative wing of the Republican Party, potentially alienating her from some of the party's hardliners who could block her bid for Speaker.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 80%** Nancy Mace has been a prominent figure in the House and has the potential to unite the Republican caucus. Her experience and reputation could make her a strong candidate for the Speaker position.
- **Strength: 15%** The Republican Party's internal dynamics might not allow for a more conservative candidate to emerge, making Nancy Mace the most viable option. Her centrist views could appeal to a broader range of Republicans.
- **Strength: 5%** Nancy Mace has already demonstrated her willingness to challenge Kevin McCarthy's leadership, showing that she is not afraid to take on powerful figures within the party. This could be seen as a positive trait for a Speaker candidate.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that Nancy Mace has a strong foundation to become the next Speaker of the House. However, the Republican Party's internal dynamics and the potential emergence of other candidates could impact her chances. The fact that she has been a vocal critic of Kevin McCarthy's leadership might not necessarily be a hindrance, but rather a testament to her willingness to challenge the status quo.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 55 seems reasonable, given the considerations above. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as the reasons in favor of Nancy Mace becoming the next Speaker are quite strong. A more confident prediction might be warranted.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Tom Emmer (R) be elected as the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal, based on credible news reports, before November 15, 2023?

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Internal Republican divisions**: The Republican Party is fractured, and the right-wing faction that supported Kevin McCarthy's removal might not be satisfied with Tom Emmer as a replacement. Strength: 6/10
2. **Gaetz's influence**: Matt Gaetz, who led the effort to remove McCarthy, might still wield significant influence within the party and could potentially block Emmer's election. Strength: 5/10
3. **Alternative candidates**: There might be other Republican candidates who could potentially challenge Emmer for the Speakership, either within the party or from the right-wing faction. Strength: 4/10
4. **Party dynamics**: The Republican Party's internal dynamics and power struggles could lead to a prolonged Speakership election process, potentially delaying or preventing Emmer's election. Strength: 5/10

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Emmer's experience**: Tom Emmer has experience as a House member and has been a key player in the Republican Party, which could help him secure the Speakership. Strength: 7/10
2. **Republican Party unity**: The Republican Party might rally behind Emmer as a compromise candidate, especially if they see him as a more stable alternative to McCarthy. Strength: 6/10
3. **Lack of alternative candidates**: Without a strong alternative candidate, Emmer might be the default choice for the Speakership. Strength: 5/10
4. **Party leadership support**: Emmer might receive support from key Republican Party leaders, which could help secure his election. Strength: 6/10

Aggregate considerations:
Considering the factors mentioned above, it seems that Tom Emmer has a moderate chance of being elected as the Speaker of the House. The internal Republican divisions and Gaetz's influence might pose challenges, but Emmer's experience and potential party unity could work in his favor.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of confidence:
The initial probability of 60 seems relatively moderate, given the uncertainty surrounding the Republican Party's internal dynamics and the potential for alternative candidates. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is the probability of a Speaker being removed and a new one being elected. In the past, Speaker removals have been relatively rare, which might suggest a lower base rate for this event.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Conservative party win the 2023 Mid Bedfordshire by-election, which is scheduled to take place on October 19, 2023, and will be the first by-election in the constituency, with the seat having been held by the Conservatives since 1931 and the current MP, Nadine Dorries, having resigned on June 9, 2023, but not formally resigning until August 29, 2023, with the main contenders being the Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, the Labour candidate, Alistair Strathern, and the Liberal Democrat candidate, Emma Holland-Lindsay, with polling data from early September showing the Conservatives and Labour at 29% and the Liberal Democrats at 22%, and the Conservative candidate winning the seat with a majority of 24,664 votes in the 2019 general election?

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. The Conservative Party has a history of losing by-elections in the UK, especially when the sitting MP resigns (Strength: 2). 
2. The Labour Party has been gaining popularity in recent years, and the Conservative Party's support has been declining (Strength: 3).
3. The Liberal Democrats are a significant force in the constituency, with a strong candidate in Emma Holland-Lindsay, and the party's polling numbers are higher than in some previous by-elections (Strength: 3).
4. The by-election is being held in a constituency that has been held by the Conservatives for a long time, which can sometimes lead to a backlash against the incumbent party (Strength: 2).
5. The Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, is a relatively new face in the constituency, which can make it harder for him to connect with voters (Strength: 2).

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. The Conservative Party has a strong tradition of winning in the Mid Bedfordshire constituency, and the party has a large support base in the area (Strength: 5).
2. The Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, is a well-known figure in the constituency, having served as the Bedfordshire Police Commissioner (Strength: 4).
3. The Labour Party's candidate, Alistair Strathern, is a relatively unknown figure in the constituency, which can make it harder for him to gain traction (Strength: 3).
4. The Liberal Democrats' polling numbers are lower than the Conservative and Labour parties, making it harder for them to win (Strength: 3).
5. The Conservative Party has a strong national brand and a large amount of resources to devote to the by-election campaign (Strength: 4).

Aggregated considerations:
The Conservative Party has a strong tradition of winning in the Mid Bedfordshire constituency, and the party has a large support base in the area. However, the Labour Party has been gaining popularity in recent years, and the Liberal Democrats are a significant force in the constituency. The Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, is a well-known figure in the constituency, but the Labour candidate, Alistair Strathern, is a relatively unknown figure. The Liberal Democrats' polling numbers are lower than the Conservative and Labour parties, making it harder for them to win.

Initial probability: 65

Evaluation:
The calculated probability of 65 is a relatively high level of confidence, but it is not excessively confident. However, it is worth noting that the base rate of the event is not particularly high, as the Conservative Party has held the seat since 1931. Additionally, the by-election is being held in a constituency that has been relatively safe for the Conservative Party, which may affect the outcome.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the UK's AI Safety Summit result in a joint declaration or statement, endorsed by at least five of the top institutions participating in the summit, that includes at least three of the following commitments proposed by the Future of Life Institute: 
- An agreement to reconvene in six months (or less) to work on AI governance
- A commitment to increase public funding for AI safety research
- A commitment by signatory nations to develop a national-level AI strategy that contains at least two of the following measures:
  - Standards for advanced AI, with associated benchmarks and thresholds for dangerous capabilities
  - Mandatory pre-deployment audits for potentially dangerous AI systems by independent third parties
  - Monitoring of entities with large-scale AI compute concentrations
  - Safety protocols to prevent systems with dangerous capabilities from being developed, deployed, or stolen
  - Restrictions on open source AI based on capability thresholds
  - Immediate enhancement of cybersecurity standards at leading AI companies
  - Adaptation of national liability law to AI-specific challenges
- A post-summit working group with a mandate to develop a blueprint for international AI governance
- Encouragement of AI labs to share information with the UK Foundation Model Task Force?

If not, will the Future of Life Institute issue a public statement indicating that the outcomes from the summit have exceeded their expectations? The summit must be held before March 1, 2024, and a joint declaration or statement meeting the criteria must be publicly available before November 10, 2023, or 168 hours following the end of the summit, whichever is later.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- **Reason 1: Difficulty in reaching consensus** (Strength: 8/10) - The summit involves multiple nations and institutions with differing interests, which can make it challenging to reach a consensus on concrete commitments.
- **Reason 2: Limited scope and influence** (Strength: 6/10) - The summit's objectives may not be comprehensive enough to address all the complex issues related to AI safety, and the influence of the summit may be limited in the long run.
- **Reason 3: Prioritization of other interests** (Strength: 7/10) - The participating institutions may prioritize their own interests over AI safety, which could lead to a lack of concrete commitments.
- **Reason 4: Limited commitment to follow-through** (Strength: 5/10) - Even if commitments are made, there is no guarantee that the institutions will follow through on them.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- **Reason 1: International cooperation on AI safety** (Strength: 9/10) - The UK government's initiative to host the summit demonstrates a willingness to address AI safety concerns, which could lead to meaningful commitments from participating institutions.
- **Reason 2: Growing awareness of AI risks** (Strength: 8/10) - The increasing awareness of AI risks and potential consequences may lead institutions to take concrete actions to mitigate these risks.
- **Reason 3: Future of Life Institute's influence** (Strength: 7/10) - The Future of Life Institute has been a prominent advocate for AI safety, and their involvement in the summit may help ensure that meaningful commitments are made.
- **Reason 4: UK government's commitment to AI safety** (Strength: 8/10) - The UK government has demonstrated a commitment to AI safety through the summit, which could lead to concrete commitments from participating institutions.

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for a "yes" and "no" outcome, I believe that the likelihood of the UK AI Safety Summit resulting in concrete and meaningful commitments is moderate to high. The international cooperation on AI safety, growing awareness of AI risks, and the UK government's commitment to AI safety all contribute to a positive outlook. However, the difficulty in reaching consensus, limited scope and influence, prioritization of other interests, and limited commitment to follow-through are potential challenges that could hinder the outcome.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the initial probability of the answer being "yes" to be 65.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

My initial probability seems reasonably cautious, taking into account the potential challenges and complexities involved in the summit. However, I may have underestimated the influence of the UK government's commitment to AI safety and the Future of Life Institute's advocacy. Additionally, I may have overestimated the difficulty in reaching consensus.

7. Final prediction:

*0.72*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.72
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Hamas lose control of the Gaza Strip before December 31, 2023, considering the current conflict initiated by the October 7, 2023, surprise attack on Israel? This question resolves as Yes if, at any point between October 7, 2023, and December 31, 2023, the consensus of credible reports is that Hamas no longer has de facto control of the majority of the land area of the Gaza Strip. It resolves as No in all other cases, including if the consensus of credible reports is that control of Gaza is disputed, or if there is no consensus of credible reports.

Reasons why the answer might be No (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Hamas's entrenched position**: Hamas has been in control of Gaza since 2007 and has a strong support base among the local population. Their control is likely to be difficult to break. (Strength: 4)
2. **Past conflicts have not led to a change in control**: Despite previous conflicts with Israel, Hamas has maintained control of Gaza. This suggests that their control is resilient. (Strength: 4)
3. **International support for the Palestinian Authority**: The Palestinian Authority, led by Fatah, has international recognition and support. However, this has not translated into a significant challenge to Hamas's control of Gaza. (Strength: 2)
4. **Economic dependence on Hamas**: Many Gazans rely on Hamas for essential services, including healthcare and education. This dependence may make it difficult for an alternative government to gain traction. (Strength: 3)
5. **Hamas's military capabilities**: Hamas has a well-organized military wing and has shown the ability to launch significant attacks on Israel. This military strength may allow them to maintain control of Gaza. (Strength: 5)

Reasons why the answer might be Yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Israeli military response**: Israel's Operation Iron Swords has already resulted in significant casualties in Gaza, which could lead to a weakening of Hamas's control. (Strength: 4)
2. **International pressure on Hamas**: The international community may pressure Hamas to relinquish control of Gaza, particularly if the conflict escalates. (Strength: 3)
3. **Divisions within Hamas**: There may be divisions within Hamas that could lead to a loss of control, particularly if key leaders are killed or captured. (Strength: 2)
4. **Economic sanctions**: Israel and other countries may impose economic sanctions on Gaza, which could weaken Hamas's control. (Strength: 3)
5. **UN and international efforts to broker a peace deal**: The UN and other international actors may work to broker a peace deal that could lead to a change in control of Gaza. (Strength: 2)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, I believe that the likelihood of Hamas losing control of Gaza before December 31, 2023, is relatively low, but not impossible. The entrenched position of Hamas, their military capabilities, and the economic dependence of the Gazan population on Hamas make it difficult to predict a loss of control. However, the Israeli military response, international pressure, and potential divisions within Hamas could contribute to a weakening of their control.

Initial probability: 20

Evaluation:

My initial probability of 20% may be too low, considering the potential for the Israeli military response to weaken Hamas's control. However, the entrenched position of Hamas and their military capabilities make it difficult to predict a loss of control. I may be underestimating the resilience of Hamas's control.

Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Israel explicitly acknowledge and carry out a deadly attack on Iran, resulting in the deaths of at least five Iranians, before January 1, 2024? The attack can be a kinetic operation, using physical violence or weaponry, and can include cross-border missile or ballistic attacks. The deaths must occur within a 24-hour span, and Israel's acknowledgment can be through the Israeli government or any agency of the government. This question will resolve as Yes if credible sources report on the attack and its aftermath, and the attack meets the specified criteria.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Israel's current focus is on the ongoing conflict with Hamas, and a significant military operation against Iran might divert resources and attention away from this conflict (strength: 3).
- Iran's denial of involvement in the Hamas attack might suggest that Iran is not directly involved in planning future attacks against Israel, reducing the likelihood of an Israeli response (strength: 2).
- Israel's history of cautious military actions, particularly in sensitive regions, might lead to a more measured approach in responding to perceived threats from Iran (strength: 4).
- The international community's reaction to the current conflict with Hamas might lead to increased diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation, reducing the likelihood of an Israeli attack on Iran (strength: 3).
- The potential consequences of an Israeli attack on Iran, including regional instability and potential retaliation, might deter Israel from taking such action (strength: 5).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The current conflict with Hamas has already shown Israel's willingness to take bold military action, which might translate to a more aggressive approach against Iran (strength: 4).
- The reported Iranian involvement in the Hamas attack might be seen as a provocation, leading to an Israeli response (strength: 3).
- Israel's desire to weaken Iran's influence in the region and its support for militant groups like Hamas might lead to a military operation against Iran (strength: 5).
- The Israeli government's rhetoric and actions suggest a willingness to take a harder line against Iran, which could lead to military action (strength: 4).
- The potential benefits of an Israeli attack on Iran, such as weakening its nuclear program or reducing its influence in the region, might outweigh the potential risks (strength: 4).

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, the following factors stand out:

- Israel's willingness to take bold military action, as seen in the current conflict with Hamas, might translate to a more aggressive approach against Iran (strength: 4).
- The potential consequences of an Israeli attack on Iran, including regional instability and potential retaliation, might deter Israel from taking such action (strength: 5).
- The reported Iranian involvement in the Hamas attack might be seen as a provocation, leading to an Israeli response (strength: 3).
- The Israeli government's rhetoric and actions suggest a willingness to take a harder line against Iran, which could lead to military action (strength: 4).

5. Initial probability:

Given the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of Israel explicitly acknowledging and carrying out a deadly attack on Iran before January 1, 2024, to be around 40.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:

The initial probability of 40% might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the potential consequences of an Israeli attack on Iran, including regional instability and potential retaliation. Additionally, the base rate of the event, which is a relatively rare occurrence, might be lower than 40%. However, the current conflict with Hamas and the reported Iranian involvement in the attack might increase the likelihood of an Israeli response.

7. Final prediction:

*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before January 1, 2024, due to one of the following reasons: stepping down, being replaced, being captured by Israel, or dying, as reported by credible sources?

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. Hamas's control over the Gaza Strip has been relatively stable since 2007, and Yahya Sinwar has maintained his position as the Hamas Chief. (Strength: 3)
2. The group's leadership structure is not well-documented, and it's unclear if there are any clear succession plans or potential successors. (Strength: 4)
3. Hamas has historically been able to withstand Israeli military operations and maintain its control over the Gaza Strip, which might suggest that Sinwar's position is secure. (Strength: 3)
4. The international community's response to the recent conflict has been relatively muted, which might indicate that there is no significant pressure on Hamas to change its leadership. (Strength: 2)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. The recent Israeli bombing of Sinwar's home could be a sign that Israel is targeting him directly, which might lead to his removal or incapacitation. (Strength: 4)
2. The severity of the recent conflict and the scale of the Israeli response might create internal divisions within Hamas, potentially leading to a change in leadership. (Strength: 3)
3. The international community's condemnation of the recent violence might lead to increased pressure on Hamas to reform or change its leadership. (Strength: 2)
4. Sinwar's age (born in 1962) might make him more vulnerable to health issues or other factors that could lead to his removal. (Strength: 1)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, I believe that the likelihood of Yahya Sinwar ceasing to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before January 1, 2024, is relatively low. The reasons for a "no" answer seem more substantial and well-established, while the reasons for a "yes" answer are more speculative and uncertain. However, the recent Israeli bombing of Sinwar's home and the scale of the recent conflict might increase the likelihood of a change in leadership.

Initial probability: 20

Evaluation of confidence:

My initial probability of 20% might be considered not confident enough, given the potential for significant changes in the situation. The recent conflict and the Israeli response might create new dynamics that could lead to a change in leadership. However, the lack of clear succession plans and the group's history of maintaining control over the Gaza Strip make it difficult to predict a change in leadership.

Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before November 7, 2023, as part of a military operation, as explicitly reported by credible sources, where the building is located at Omer El Mokhtar Street in Gaza? This question will resolve as Yes if, before the listed dates, credible sources report that Israeli military ground forces have reached the location of the building, or if nearby landmarks have been reached that characterize Israeli forces as present in the surrounding area encompassing the building location, or if a map indicates that Israeli forces are nearby and present in the surrounding area encompassing the building location, or if a map indicates that Israeli forces have control of the area at the building location.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):
- Reason 1: Hamas's strong defensive capabilities and control over the Gaza Strip make it challenging for Israeli forces to reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 2: The densely populated area and potential for civilian casualties might limit Israel's ability to launch a ground operation in the area. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 3: Israel's past experiences with ground operations in Gaza have been challenging, and it might be hesitant to repeat such operations. (Strength: 2)
- Reason 4: The information provided does not give a clear indication of Israel's military strategy or capabilities in this operation. (Strength: 1)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):
- Reason 1: Israel's military has a history of conducting ground operations in Gaza, and it's likely they will attempt to do so in this operation. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 2: The large number of rockets launched by Hamas might prompt Israel to launch a ground operation to neutralize the threat. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 3: Israel's goal is to weaken Hamas, and a ground operation could be a means to achieve this goal. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 4: The Israeli military might use the cover of the ongoing operation to push into Gaza and capture key locations, including the Palestinian Legislative Council building. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
- The Israeli military has a history of conducting ground operations in Gaza, which increases the likelihood of them reaching the Palestinian Legislative Council building.
- However, the densely populated area, strong defensive capabilities of Hamas, and potential for civilian casualties might limit Israel's ability to launch a successful ground operation.
- The information provided does not give a clear indication of Israel's military strategy or capabilities in this operation.

5. Initial probability: 40 (I am 40% confident that Israeli forces will reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before November 7, 2023, as part of a military operation.)

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
- The initial probability is not excessively confident or not confident enough. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is unknown.
- The base rate of Israeli forces reaching the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza as part of a military operation is likely low, given the challenging environment and past experiences.
- The probability might be adjusted based on additional information about Israel's military strategy, Hamas's defensive capabilities, and the effectiveness of the operation.

7. Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will credible sources report that explicitly flagged members of Israeli military ground forces perform a military operation in Gaza and reach the location of the Palestinian Legislative Council building, located at Omer El Mokhtar Street in Gaza, before January 1, 2024, as part of a military operation or following the surrender of Hamas forces in the region? This question will resolve as Yes if, before the listed date, there are reports from credible sources that explicitly mention Israeli forces reaching the surrounding area encompassing the building location, such as nearby landmarks, maps indicating Israeli presence, or control of the area.

Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is a weak reason and 5 is a strong reason):

1. **Hamas's military capabilities and resilience**: Hamas has a history of putting up a strong resistance against Israeli military operations, which could potentially slow down or prevent Israeli forces from reaching the Legislative Council building. (Strength: 4)
2. **Geographical challenges**: The Gaza Strip is a densely populated and urban area, with a complex network of streets and alleys, which could hinder Israeli forces' movement and make it difficult for them to reach the Legislative Council building. (Strength: 3)
3. **Hamas's use of tunnels and underground infrastructure**: Hamas has a well-developed network of tunnels and underground infrastructure, which could allow them to launch surprise attacks on Israeli forces and slow down their advance. (Strength: 4)
4. **International pressure and diplomatic efforts**: The international community may put pressure on Israel to avoid a ground invasion or to limit the scope of the military operation, which could prevent Israeli forces from reaching the Legislative Council building. (Strength: 2)
5. **Israeli military strategy**: Israel may choose not to prioritize the Legislative Council building as a key target, focusing instead on other strategic objectives or areas with higher military value. (Strength: 3)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is a weak reason and 5 is a strong reason):

1. **Israeli military power and capabilities**: The Israeli military has a significant advantage in terms of firepower, technology, and training, which could allow them to quickly and effectively reach the Legislative Council building. (Strength: 5)
2. **Previous Israeli military operations**: Israel has successfully conducted military operations in Gaza in the past, including the 2014 and 2021 conflicts, which suggests that they have the capability to reach the Legislative Council building. (Strength: 4)
3. **Hamas's weakened position**: Hamas's military capabilities have been weakened by the October 7, 2023, attack, which could make it easier for Israeli forces to reach the Legislative Council building. (Strength: 4)
4. **Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's declaration of war**: Netanyahu's declaration of war suggests that Israel is committed to a significant military operation, which could include reaching the Legislative Council building. (Strength: 3)
5. **The importance of the Legislative Council building as a strategic target**: The Legislative Council building may be a key target for Israel, as it represents the seat of Hamas's power and control in Gaza. (Strength: 4)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, I believe that the likelihood of Israeli forces reaching the Legislative Council building before January 1, 2024, is relatively high. While Hamas's military capabilities and geographical challenges may pose obstacles, the Israeli military's power and capabilities, previous experience in Gaza, and the importance of the Legislative Council building as a strategic target all suggest that they may be able to reach the building.

Initial probability: 70

Evaluation of confidence:

My initial probability of 70 seems reasonable, given the strength of the reasons on both sides. However, I may be underestimating the difficulty of the operation, given Hamas's military capabilities and the complexity of the Gaza Strip's geography. On the other hand, I may be overestimating the importance of the Legislative Council building as a target.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Israeli forces reach the location of the Palestinian Legislative Council building, situated at Omer El Mokhtar Street in Gaza City, before March 1, 2024, as part of a military operation, following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, and as confirmed by credible sources explicitly mentioning the presence of Israeli military ground forces in the surrounding area?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- Reason 1: The Israeli military operation, Operation Iron Swords, has been focused on airstrikes and ground operations might be challenging due to the densely populated and urban terrain of Gaza, making it difficult to reach the building without significant civilian casualties or infrastructure damage. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: The Palestinian resistance, particularly Hamas, might have prepared defensive positions and tunnels in the area, potentially hindering Israeli ground forces' progress. (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 3: The Israeli military might be cautious and adopt a gradual approach to minimize casualties, which could lead to a slower progression of ground forces. (Strength: 4/10)
- Reason 4: The international community's response, including potential diplomatic efforts and humanitarian interventions, might influence the Israeli military's strategy and pace. (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- Reason 1: The Israeli military has a history of successfully conducting ground operations in Gaza, and Operation Iron Swords has already claimed a significant number of casualties in Gaza, indicating a strong military presence. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: The initial Hamas attack on Israel was unprecedented in scale and surprise, which might have caught the Israeli military off guard, but they could still adapt and respond with a strong ground operation. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: The Israeli military might prioritize targeting key locations, including the Palestinian Legislative Council building, as a symbol of Hamas's control and a strategic objective. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 4: The Israeli military has experience operating in Gaza and has a good understanding of the terrain, which could facilitate their progress. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the balance of evidence suggests that the Israeli military is likely to reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building before March 1, 2024. The reasons for a "yes" outcome seem stronger, with a total strength of 26/40, compared to the reasons for a "no" outcome, with a total strength of 18/40.

5. Initial probability: 65

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
The initial probability of 65 might be considered not confident enough, as the reasons for a "yes" outcome are relatively strong. However, the complexities of the situation, including the densely populated terrain, potential defensive positions, and international influences, might still affect the outcome. Additionally, the base rate of successful Israeli ground operations in Gaza is not explicitly stated, which could impact the overall probability.

7. Final prediction: *0.7*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the Federal Funds target rate, set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve, increase before December 18, 2023, from its current range of 5.25-5.50% as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York? Given the recent speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole, where he emphasized the Fed's commitment to bringing inflation down to its 2% target, and considering the ongoing efforts to combat persistently high inflation, what are the chances that the FOMC will raise the Federal Funds rate before the specified deadline?

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Uncertainty about inflation trends**: Despite the decline in inflation from its peak, it remains elevated, and the exact trajectory of inflation is uncertain. This uncertainty might lead the FOMC to wait and observe the inflation trends before making a decision. Strength: 6/10
2. **Economic growth concerns**: The Fed might be cautious about raising rates too high, potentially slowing down economic growth, and thus, might choose not to increase the Federal Funds rate. Strength: 5/10
3. **Market expectations**: The implied probability of a rate hike before the end of the year is relatively low (27.8%), which might suggest that the market does not expect a rate hike. Strength: 7/10
4. **FOMC's restrictive policy stance**: The Fed has already implemented a restrictive policy stance, and further rate hikes might not be necessary to achieve their inflation target. Strength: 8/10

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Fed's commitment to inflation target**: The Fed has explicitly stated its commitment to bringing inflation down to its 2% target, and raising rates might be necessary to achieve this goal. Strength: 9/10
2. **Powell's speech at Jackson Hole**: Chairman Powell's speech emphasized the Fed's determination to combat inflation, which suggests that the Fed might be inclined to raise rates further. Strength: 8/10
3. **Market expectations might be too low**: The implied probability of a rate hike might be too low, and the market might underestimate the likelihood of a rate hike. Strength: 6/10
4. **FOMC's dual mandate**: The Fed has a dual mandate of price stability and full employment, and raising rates might be necessary to achieve both goals. Strength: 8/10

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, the balance of evidence suggests that the FOMC is likely to raise the Federal Funds rate before December 18, 2023. The Fed's commitment to inflation target, Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, and the FOMC's dual mandate all suggest that a rate hike is more likely than not.

Initial probability: 62

Evaluation of the initial probability:

The initial probability of 62 seems reasonable, given the balance of evidence. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as the reasons why the answer might be yes are stronger than those why the answer might be no. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of a rate hike without any new information) is likely higher than 0, but it's difficult to estimate without more information.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Hong Kong's Chief Executive, John Lee, receive an official invitation from the organizers of the APEC summit to attend the APEC summit in November 2023, despite being barred by the US government and facing opposition from exiled activists? 

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **US Sanctions**: The US has already announced that it will bar John Lee from attending the APEC summit, which sets a clear precedent. (Strength: 9/10)
2. **Opposition from Exiled Activists**: Exiled activists from Hong Kong have been calling for John Lee to be banned from APEC, which suggests that there may be significant opposition to his attendance. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **China's Limited Influence**: While China has been hinting at the US to reconsider, it may not have sufficient influence to change the US decision. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **US Domestic Politics**: The US may prioritize its domestic politics and public opinion over diplomatic relations with China, making it less likely to invite John Lee. (Strength: 4/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **China's Economic Influence**: As a major player in the global economy, China may be able to exert significant pressure on the US to reconsider its decision. (Strength: 7/10)
2. **APEC's Inclusive Nature**: APEC is known for its inclusive nature, and inviting John Lee could be seen as a way to promote dialogue and cooperation among member economies. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Hong Kong's Economic Interests**: Hong Kong is an important economic hub, and its participation in APEC is crucial for its economic interests. (Strength: 4/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I think the US is unlikely to back down from its decision to bar John Lee from attending the APEC summit. While China's economic influence and APEC's inclusive nature may play a role, the US sanctions and opposition from exiled activists seem to be strong obstacles to his attendance.

Initial probability: 25

Evaluation:
My initial probability may be too low, given the significant economic interests at stake for Hong Kong and China. Additionally, the US may be more willing to compromise on this issue than I initially thought. However, the US sanctions and opposition from exiled activists still pose significant challenges to John Lee's attendance.

Final prediction: *0.4*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, a militant group and political party active in Lebanon and the Syrian civil war, before January 1, 2024, as a direct result of military actions or clashes between the military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah, taking into account both combatant and non-combatant deaths? The conflict in question began with the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel and subsequent rocket and artillery fire exchange between Israel and Hezbollah, with Hezbollah expressing support for Hamas' attack and issuing threats against Israel.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1 to 10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- Israel and Hezbollah might engage in a limited and controlled conflict, avoiding large-scale civilian casualties. (Strength: 6)
- Diplomatic efforts and international pressure might lead to a ceasefire or de-escalation of the conflict. (Strength: 5)
- Hezbollah's military capabilities and tactics might not be as effective against Israel's military, limiting the number of casualties. (Strength: 7)
- Israel's military might employ strategies to minimize civilian casualties and avoid large-scale conflict. (Strength: 8)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1 to 10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- Hezbollah's support for Hamas and its threats against Israel might lead to a more intense and prolonged conflict. (Strength: 9)
- Israel's military might respond aggressively to Hezbollah's actions, leading to a larger number of casualties. (Strength: 8)
- The conflict could escalate into a larger regional conflict, involving other countries or factions, leading to a higher number of casualties. (Strength: 6)
- Hezbollah's military capabilities and tactics might be more effective than expected, leading to a larger number of casualties. (Strength: 7)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the likelihood of a large-scale conflict with 400 or more deaths seems plausible, given the history of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as the current escalation. However, the factors that suggest a limited or controlled conflict should not be underestimated. A moderate probability seems most reasonable.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, but it might be too low, given the history of conflict and the current escalation. The base rate of large-scale conflicts in the region is relatively high, and the current situation seems to be a significant escalation. Considering this, the probability might be higher than initially thought.

7. Final prediction: *0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will Tom Cole (R) be elected as the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal, considering credible news reports up to October 13, 2023, and based on the rules of the U.S. House of Representatives, including the ability to vote "present" which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership, and the fact that the Republican Party holds the majority in the 118th Congress?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
    - Strength: 6/10 - Tom Cole (R) might not have the necessary support from the Republican Party, particularly from the right-wing, who might be seeking an alternative candidate. The fact that Kevin McCarthy had to offer concessions to win the speakership suggests that the party is divided, and Tom Cole might face similar challenges.
    - Strength: 4/10 - Tom Cole (R) might not be a well-known or charismatic figure, which could make it difficult for him to rally support from his party members.
    - Strength: 3/10 - Tom Cole (R) might not have the experience or skills necessary to effectively navigate the complex politics of the House of Representatives.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
    - Strength: 8/10 - Tom Cole (R) has been a member of the House of Representatives since 2003 and has served in various leadership positions, which suggests he has the experience and skills necessary to be an effective Speaker.
    - Strength: 7/10 - Tom Cole (R) is a Republican and has the support of his party, which is the majority in the 118th Congress. This gives him a strong foundation to build support for his speakership.
    - Strength: 6/10 - Tom Cole (R) might be seen as a more moderate candidate who could potentially unite the Republican Party and attract some Democratic support, which could help him win the speakership.

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the reasons above, it seems that Tom Cole (R) has a good chance of being elected as the Speaker of the House, but there are also potential challenges he might face. The fact that he has experience and the support of his party are strong advantages, but the divisions within the Republican Party and the need for a majority vote (or potentially less if some members vote "present") make the outcome uncertain.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of initial probability: The initial probability seems relatively confident, but considering the complexities of the situation and the potential for unexpected events, it might be too high. The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a Speaker being elected in these circumstances) is also unknown, but it's likely to be relatively low.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Austin Scott (R) be elected as the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal, considering the current political landscape, the Republican Party's majority, and the potential candidates for the position, according to credible news reports, by the question close date of November 15, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- Strength: 6/10
Austin Scott might not have enough support from the Republican Party's hardline faction, which could still be upset with McCarthy's concessions and might not be willing to back another speaker who could potentially make similar deals. This faction has already shown its willingness to oust McCarthy, and they might not be easily swayed by Scott's candidacy.

- Strength: 4/10
Austin Scott might not have the necessary experience or leadership skills to win over a majority of House members, including some Democrats who might be needed to secure the speakership. The Speaker's position requires strong negotiation and coalition-building skills, and Scott might not possess these qualities.

- Strength: 3/10
Austin Scott might face opposition from other Republican candidates who could potentially challenge him for the speakership, splitting the party's vote and making it difficult for him to win. This could lead to a prolonged and contentious process, potentially delaying the selection of a new Speaker.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- Strength: 8/10
Austin Scott has been a long-time member of the Republican Party and has held various leadership positions, including serving as the House Republican Conference chair. He has a strong reputation within the party and might be able to build a coalition of support among Republicans and potentially some Democrats to win the speakership.

- Strength: 7/10
The Republican Party's majority in the House and the current political landscape might create an environment where a more moderate candidate like Austin Scott could win over enough votes to become Speaker. Scott's experience and reputation might make him a more attractive choice for some Republicans who are looking for a more stable and experienced leader.

- Strength: 5/10
Austin Scott's support from the party leadership and his ability to build coalitions might give him an advantage in the speaker election, especially if he is able to win over some Democrats who are willing to support him. This could potentially give him the necessary votes to secure the speakership.

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons for a "yes" answer seem more compelling than the reasons for a "no" answer, with three strong reasons for a "yes" and two weaker reasons for a "no." However, the Republican Party's hardline faction and the potential for opposition from other candidates might still pose challenges for Austin Scott's candidacy.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Austin Scott being elected as Speaker of the House at 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 might be slightly too confident, given the uncertainty surrounding the Republican Party's hardline faction and the potential for opposition from other candidates. However, the reasons for a "yes" answer do seem more compelling, and Scott's experience and reputation might give him an advantage in the speaker election.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia between October 10, 2023, and January 1, 2024, as indicated by credible sources and confirmed by the Government of Azerbaijan or two or more Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council, with the number of Azerbaijani troops entering Armenian territory exceeding 100, and such actions being deliberate and unauthorized by the Government of Armenia or the UN? The invasion must occur at least partially within the specified timeframe, and the definition of Armenian territory is based on the de jure border as of October 10, 2023, excluding the Nagorno-Karabakh region and any other territory de jure part of Azerbaijan.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- **Reason 1: Diplomatic efforts and negotiations**: Azerbaijan and Armenia have been engaged in negotiations and diplomatic efforts to resolve their conflict, which might lead to a peaceful resolution and reduce the likelihood of an invasion. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 2: Economic concerns**: An invasion could lead to significant economic losses and damage to Azerbaijan's reputation, which might deter the government from taking such a drastic action. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 3: International pressure**: The international community, including the US, might put pressure on Azerbaijan to avoid an invasion, which could influence the government's decision. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 4: Military risks**: An invasion could be risky for Azerbaijan, given the potential for Armenian resistance and the involvement of other regional actors. (Strength: 8/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- **Reason 1: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's threat**: Aliyev has previously threatened to solve the issue "by force," which suggests a willingness to use military action. (Strength: 9/10)
- **Reason 2: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's warning**: Blinken's warning that the US is tracking the possibility of an Azerbaijani invasion indicates that there are concerns about the situation escalating. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 3: Azerbaijani control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region**: Azerbaijan's recent gains in the region could embolden the government to pursue further military action. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 4: Regional instability**: The region is already experiencing tensions and conflicts, which could create an environment conducive to an invasion. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for and against an Azerbaijani invasion, I weigh the strength of each argument. The reasons against an invasion (Reasons 1-4) have a total strength of 26/40, while the reasons for an invasion (Reasons 1-4) have a total strength of 33/40. This suggests that the likelihood of an invasion is higher, but not overwhelmingly so.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the initial probability of an Azerbaijani invasion between October 10, 2023, and January 1, 2024, to be 55.

6. Evaluation and additional considerations:

Upon reviewing my initial probability, I consider the base rate of the event, which is difficult to estimate without historical data on similar conflicts. However, I also consider the potential for miscalculation and the complexity of the situation. I might be underestimating the likelihood of an invasion due to the unpredictability of human behavior and the potential for escalation.

7. Final prediction:

*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will either Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize, as announced at the event at Old Billingsgate, London, on November 26, 2023, or share the prize with any other author?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- The shortlist is male-dominated, with only two out of four authors being women (Strength: 6/10). This might indicate that the judges were biased towards male authors.
- The past three prizes (2020, 2021, and 2022) were won by men, which could suggest a trend of favoring male authors (Strength: 7/10).
- The judges emphasized the quality of the work rather than the author's gender, but this might not necessarily translate to a win for either Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo (Strength: 4/10).
- The other two shortlisted authors, Paul Murray and Paul Lynch, might have stronger competition and be more likely to win (Strength: 8/10).
- The judges' focus on the quality of the work might have led them to overlook the contributions of female authors (Strength: 5/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Both Sarah Bernstein and Chetna Maroo have written highly acclaimed and critically acclaimed novels, which could increase their chances of winning (Strength: 9/10).
- The judges' emphasis on the quality of the work suggests that they might have considered the contributions of female authors (Strength: 8/10).
- The fact that the shortlist is diverse and includes authors from different backgrounds and styles might indicate that the judges are open to a wide range of perspectives, including those of female authors (Strength: 7/10).
- The Guardian article suggests that the judges were focused on the quality of the work rather than the author's gender, which could increase the chances of a female author winning (Strength: 8/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:
- The reasons for a "no" answer seem to be more circumstantial and based on past trends, while the reasons for a "yes" answer are more directly related to the quality of the authors' work and the judges' emphasis on quality.
- The strength of the "yes" reasons seems to outweigh the strength of the "no" reasons.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
- The calculated probability seems to be relatively low, considering the reasons for a "yes" answer.
- The base rate of the event is not provided, but it's likely that the probability of a female author winning the Booker Prize is higher than 0, given the increasing representation of women in literature and the efforts to promote diversity and inclusion in the literary world.
- The calculated probability might be too cautious, considering the emphasis on the quality of the work and the diversity of the shortlist.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Brian Fitzpatrick (R) be elected as the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following the removal of Kevin McCarthy, given the current context of the 118th U.S. Congress, the Republican Party's majority, and the historical precedent of the Speaker's election process, according to credible news reports, by November 15th, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-5, with 5 being the strongest reason):

- **Reason 1: Brian Fitzpatrick's potential opposition from within the Republican Party** (Strength: 3). As a moderate Republican, Brian Fitzpatrick may face opposition from hardline Republicans who might prefer a more conservative candidate. This could lead to a challenging path for Fitzpatrick to secure the necessary votes.
- **Reason 2: The need for a candidate to appeal to a broad coalition** (Strength: 4). To become Speaker, Brian Fitzpatrick would need to appeal to a broad coalition of Republicans and potentially some Democrats to secure the necessary votes. This could be a challenging task, especially given the current divisions within the Republican Party.
- **Reason 3: The Speaker's role in the House** (Strength: 2). As a moderate, Brian Fitzpatrick might struggle to balance the competing interests and demands of the various factions within the Republican Party, which could impact his ability to secure the necessary votes.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-5, with 5 being the strongest reason):

- **Reason 1: Brian Fitzpatrick's moderate reputation** (Strength: 4). As a moderate Republican, Brian Fitzpatrick might be seen as a unifying figure who can appeal to a broad coalition of Republicans and potentially some Democrats, making him a more viable candidate for Speaker.
- **Reason 2: The Republican Party's need for a unifying figure** (Strength: 5). Given the current divisions within the Republican Party, the party may be in need of a unifying figure who can bring the various factions together. Brian Fitzpatrick's moderate reputation and experience as a member of the House might make him an attractive candidate for this role.
- **Reason 3: The precedent of moderate Speakers** (Strength: 3). Historically, moderate Speakers like Nancy Pelosi and John Boehner have been able to win the Speakership without reaching 218 votes, suggesting that a moderate candidate like Brian Fitzpatrick might be able to secure the necessary votes.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the key factors that will influence the outcome are Brian Fitzpatrick's moderate reputation, the Republican Party's need for a unifying figure, and the precedent of moderate Speakers. While there are valid concerns about opposition from within the Republican Party and the need for a candidate to appeal to a broad coalition, these factors seem less significant compared to the potential benefits of Fitzpatrick's moderate reputation and the party's need for unity.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Brian Fitzpatrick being elected as the Speaker of the House as 60%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, given the current context and the factors that will influence the outcome. However, it is essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is relatively low, as the Speaker of the House is a unique position that requires a broad coalition of support. This might suggest that the probability is slightly lower than 60%.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from the House of Commons in 2023 (without first resigning) due to the Independent Expert Panel's recommendation for a 6-week suspension, which was made on October 16, 2023, for multiple acts of bullying and one act of sexual misconduct against a staff member in 2012 and 2013, before January 1, 2024, as reported by credible sources?

Reasons why the answer might be no (rated 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
1. **Lobbying efforts by Peter Bone's supporters and Conservative Party**: The Conservative Party might lobby to reduce the severity of the punishment or prevent the suspension altogether, which could lead to a successful appeal or a reduced sentence. (Strength: 3)
2. **Delays in the process**: The process of suspending an MP can be lengthy, and there might be delays in the approval of the suspension, which could prevent it from happening before January 1, 2024. (Strength: 2)
3. **Peter Bone's influence and seniority**: As a senior MP and former Deputy Leader of the House of Commons, Peter Bone might have connections and influence that could help him avoid or reduce the suspension. (Strength: 2)
4. **Changing political landscape**: The political landscape in the UK can change rapidly, and a change in government or leadership could impact the outcome of the suspension. (Strength: 1)
5. **Peter Bone's potential resignation**: If Peter Bone resigns from the House of Commons before the suspension is approved, the question would resolve as no. (Strength: 5)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
1. **The severity of the misconduct**: The Independent Expert Panel's report highlights serious misconduct, including violence, bullying, and sexual misconduct, which might lead to a swift and severe punishment. (Strength: 5)
2. **The Recall of MPs Act 2015**: The Recall of MPs Act 2015 provides a mechanism for the public to trigger a by-election if 10% of the electorate sign a petition, which could lead to Peter Bone's suspension being enforced. (Strength: 4)
3. **Public pressure and media scrutiny**: The public and media might put pressure on the Conservative Party and the House of Commons to enforce the suspension, which could lead to a swift decision. (Strength: 3)
4. **The Independent Expert Panel's recommendation**: The Independent Expert Panel's recommendation for a 6-week suspension is a clear indication that the misconduct was serious and warrants punishment. (Strength: 4)
5. **The Conservative Party's previous actions**: The Conservative Party has previously taken action against other MPs for misconduct, which suggests that they might enforce the suspension in this case. (Strength: 2)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the most significant factors pointing towards a yes answer are the severity of the misconduct, the Recall of MPs Act 2015, and the Independent Expert Panel's recommendation. However, the lobbying efforts by Peter Bone's supporters, potential delays, and his influence and seniority might mitigate these factors.

Initial probability: 70

Evaluation:
The calculated probability of 70 might be considered excessively confident, as there are many variables at play, and the outcome is uncertain. However, considering the severity of the misconduct and the mechanisms in place, it seems likely that Peter Bone will be suspended.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Mike Johnson (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal, considering the current political climate, the Republican Party's majority in the 118th Congress, and the historical precedent of Speakers winning with less than 218 votes, given that a resolution to vacate the speaker position has succeeded for the first time in U.S. history, and credible news reports will be used to determine the outcome by November 15th, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

* Reason 1: The Republican Party is divided, and hardline Republicans may not support Mike Johnson as a suitable replacement for Kevin McCarthy. (Strength: 4)
* Reason 2: The fact that Kevin McCarthy was ousted as Speaker suggests that there is significant opposition within the Republican Party, which might extend to Mike Johnson. (Strength: 4)
* Reason 3: The successful resolution to vacate the speaker position sets a precedent for future challenges to the Speaker's authority, making it harder for Mike Johnson to maintain the Speakership. (Strength: 3)
* Reason 4: The current political climate is highly polarized, and the Republican Party may struggle to coalesce around a new Speaker. (Strength: 3)
* Reason 5: Mike Johnson may not have the same level of support or charisma as Kevin McCarthy, which could make it harder for him to win the Speakership. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

* Reason 1: Mike Johnson is a senior Republican leader and has experience in the House, which could make him a strong candidate for Speaker. (Strength: 4)
* Reason 2: The Republican Party still holds a majority in the House, and Mike Johnson may be able to win the Speakership with a majority of Republican votes. (Strength: 4)
* Reason 3: The fact that Kevin McCarthy was able to win the Speakership with concessions and compromises suggests that Mike Johnson may be able to follow a similar path to victory. (Strength: 3)
* Reason 4: Mike Johnson has experience working with the Republican caucus and may have built relationships that could help him win the Speakership. (Strength: 3)
* Reason 5: The Democratic Party's overwhelming support for the stopgap funding bill may have weakened their ability to block a Republican Speaker, making it easier for Mike Johnson to win. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, I would rate the overall likelihood of Mike Johnson being elected Speaker as follows:

* Strength of reasons for a no answer: 17/25
* Strength of reasons for a yes answer: 18/25
* Overall, the reasons for a yes answer are slightly stronger, but the reasons for a no answer are still significant.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Mike Johnson being elected Speaker as 55%.

6. Evaluation of confidence:
My initial probability of 55% seems reasonable given the current situation. However, I may be underestimating the strength of the opposition to Mike Johnson, given the successful resolution to vacate the speaker position and the Republican Party's divisions. On the other hand, Mike Johnson's experience and seniority in the House may give him an advantage in winning the Speakership.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Lee Zeldin (R) be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal, considering the complex dynamics of the 118th U.S. Congress, the history of the Speaker's election process, and the current state of the Republican Party?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 6/10**: Lee Zeldin's chances of being elected Speaker might be low if the Republican Party decides to choose a more moderate candidate who can appeal to a broader range of party members and potentially gain some Democratic support.
- **Strength: 8/10**: Zeldin might struggle to secure the necessary votes from the far-right faction of the Republican Party, which has been a major obstacle for previous Speakers, including Kevin McCarthy.
- **Strength: 4/10**: The fact that Zeldin is a relatively unknown quantity among some Republican members might make it difficult for him to gain the necessary support, especially if they prefer a more established or well-known candidate.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 9/10**: Lee Zeldin has gained significant attention and support within the Republican Party, particularly from the right-wing faction, due to his conservative views and his role in opposing the Biden administration.
- **Strength: 7/10**: As a member of the Republican leadership team, Zeldin has already demonstrated his ability to work within the party and potentially build relationships with other members, which could help him secure the necessary votes.
- **Strength: 5/10**: The fact that Zeldin has been a vocal critic of Kevin McCarthy's leadership and has been involved in efforts to remove him as Speaker might make him a more attractive candidate for some Republicans who are dissatisfied with the current leadership.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against Lee Zeldin being elected Speaker, it appears that he has a significant chance of being elected due to his popularity among the right-wing faction of the Republican Party and his experience working within the party. However, the complex dynamics of the Speaker's election process and the potential opposition from other Republican members make it difficult to predict a definitive outcome.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, considering the mixed signals and the uncertainty surrounding the Speaker's election process. However, it may be slightly too high, given the complexity of the situation and the potential for unexpected events to influence the outcome.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before January 1, 2024, based on the following criteria:

1. The Israeli Government, the Israeli Defense Force, or a high elected official or civil servant of Israel acting in an official capacity acknowledges that the explosion was caused by Israeli military action.
2. At least three of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council publicly attribute the attack to Israel.
3. At least two reports are published by credible sources, each quoting a separate government source from a Five Eyes country, which attribute the attack to Israel. These reports must rely on a government source or document, and together provide at least two statements or documents that independently attribute the explosion to Israel.
4. If there is ambiguity about any of the above points, a panel of three Metaculus admins will make the final determination by majority decision.

If any of the above conditions are met before January 1, 2024, the question resolves as "Yes." Otherwise, it resolves as "No." The question also resolves as "No" if any group other than Israel claims responsibility for the attack and that claim is validated by credible sources.

Reasons why the answer might be "No" (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. Israel has a history of denying involvement in attacks on civilian targets, which might lead to a delay in acknowledging responsibility (strength: 3).
2. The Israeli government and military might not publicly acknowledge responsibility even if they were involved, due to political considerations (strength: 4).
3. The Five Eyes countries might not publicly attribute the attack to Israel due to diplomatic relations or strategic considerations (strength: 3).
4. The reports from credible sources might not be published before January 1, 2024, due to the time-consuming process of verifying information (strength: 2).
5. The ambiguity clause might lead to a delay in resolving the question, as the Metaculus admins might take time to make a final determination (strength: 2).

Reasons why the answer might be "Yes" (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. The international community might put pressure on Israel to acknowledge responsibility, especially if there is strong evidence of Israeli involvement (strength: 4).
2. The Five Eyes countries might publicly attribute the attack to Israel if they have credible evidence, despite potential diplomatic considerations (strength: 4).
3. Credible sources might publish reports attributing the attack to Israel before January 1, 2024, based on government sources or documents (strength: 3).
4. The Israeli government or military might acknowledge responsibility in the face of mounting evidence or international pressure (strength: 3).
5. The UN Security Council might publicly attribute the attack to Israel if there is strong evidence, despite potential diplomatic considerations (strength: 3).

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the above points, I think the most likely scenario is that the answer is "No." While there are some reasons why the answer might be "Yes," the Israeli government and military have a history of denying involvement in attacks on civilian targets, and the Five Eyes countries might not publicly attribute the attack to Israel due to diplomatic considerations. However, the international community might put pressure on Israel to acknowledge responsibility, and credible sources might publish reports attributing the attack to Israel before January 1, 2024.

Initial probability: 25

Evaluation:
My calculated probability seems to be on the lower side, considering the potential for international pressure on Israel to acknowledge responsibility. However, the Israeli government and military have a history of denying involvement in attacks on civilian targets, which might lead to a delay in acknowledging responsibility. Additionally, the Five Eyes countries might not publicly attribute the attack to Israel due to diplomatic considerations. I did not consider the base rate of the event, but it seems that the occurrence of Western institutions determining Israel's responsibility for attacks on civilian targets is relatively rare.

Final prediction: *0.3*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.3
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and expanded question:**

Will at least two of the internationally recognized media sources listed below (BBC News, The Economist, The New York Times, or The Wall Street Journal) publish reports, based on sourced reporting, that unequivocally state that a large-scale Israeli ground offensive into Gaza has begun before November 1, 2023?

To meet the threshold for a Yes resolution, a report must:

1. Be published by one of the four listed media sources (BBC News, The Economist, The New York Times, or The Wall Street Journal).
2. Be based on sourced reporting, which can include government sources quoted on condition of anonymity.
3. Clearly and unequivocally state that a large-scale Israeli ground offensive into Gaza has begun.
4. Not be an opinion piece or a speculative article, but rather a report based on factual information.
5. Not describe the operation as a "raid" or a brief incursion with a specific goal after which troops will withdraw, unless the sources also clearly state that the operation is a large-scale ground offensive.

**Reasons why the answer might be No:**

1. **Israel's military strategy might prioritize airstrikes and other forms of military action**: Israel has a history of using airstrikes and other forms of military action to target Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza. A large-scale ground offensive might be seen as too costly or risky, and Israel might opt for alternative strategies. (Strength: 60%)
2. **The evacuation of 1.1 million people from northern Gaza might be a precursor to a different type of operation**: The evacuation of 1.1 million people from northern Gaza might be a humanitarian effort to minimize civilian casualties, rather than a precursor to a large-scale ground offensive. (Strength: 40%)
3. **The Israeli military might be waiting for a specific opportunity or intelligence**: The Israeli military might be waiting for a specific opportunity or intelligence that will make a large-scale ground offensive more effective or necessary. (Strength: 30%)
4. **The international community might be pressuring Israel to avoid a large-scale ground offensive**: The international community, including the United States and other countries, might be pressuring Israel to avoid a large-scale ground offensive, which could lead to a more limited or diplomatic response. (Strength: 20%)

**Reasons why the answer might be Yes:**

1. **The Israeli military has been preparing for a large-scale ground offensive**: The Israeli military has been calling up 300,000 reservists and ordering the evacuation of 1.1 million people from northern Gaza, which suggests that a large-scale ground offensive is imminent. (Strength: 80%)
2. **Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023, might have escalated the situation**: Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023, which killed over 1,400 Israeli civilians, might have escalated the situation and led to a more significant Israeli response, including a large-scale ground offensive. (Strength: 70%)
3. **The Israeli government might be under pressure to respond decisively**: The Israeli government might be under pressure from the public and the international community to respond decisively to the Hamas attack, which could lead to a large-scale ground offensive. (Strength: 50%)
4. **The Israeli military might have a clear plan and timeline for a large-scale ground offensive**: The Israeli military might have a clear plan and timeline for a large-scale ground offensive, which could be executed before November 1, 2023. (Strength: 40%)

**Aggregated considerations:**

Based on the reasons above, I think that the likelihood of a large-scale Israeli ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023, is relatively high. The Israeli military's preparations, including the call-up of reservists and the evacuation of 1.1 million people from northern Gaza, suggest that a large-scale ground offensive is imminent. However, there are also reasons to be cautious, including the possibility that Israel might opt for alternative strategies or wait for a specific opportunity or intelligence.

**Initial probability: 60**

**Evaluation:**

My initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, but it might be too low given the Israeli military's preparations and the escalation of the situation. I might be underestimating the likelihood of a large-scale ground offensive. However, I am also cautious about the potential risks and uncertainties involved in such an operation.

**Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will George Weah win re-election as President of Liberia in the 2023 Liberian General Election, as officially declared by the National Elections Commission (NEC), given that the election has proceeded to a runoff with a second round of voting scheduled for November 7, 2023, between Weah and Joseph Boakai?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength ratings):

- Weah's opponent, Joseph Boakai, has a strong platform focused on infrastructure and agriculture projects, which could appeal to voters who are dissatisfied with Weah's performance. (Strength: 6/10)
- Boakai's health issues and "Sleepy Joe" label might harm his chances, but they might not be decisive factors for voters who prioritize policy over personality. (Strength: 4/10)
- Weah's position as the incumbent president might not be as strong as it seems, given his low vote share in the first round (43.84%) and the fact that the election is heading to a runoff. (Strength: 7/10)
- The fact that the 2017 runoff between Weah and Boakai was won by Weah with a significant margin (61.54%) might not be a reliable indicator, given the changing circumstances and the closer vote margin in the first round this year. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength ratings):

- Weah's positioning as the "plucky outsider" and his ability to connect with voters might give him an edge over Boakai, who is seen as an establishment figure. (Strength: 8/10)
- Weah's campaign message and platform might resonate with voters who are looking for change and are dissatisfied with the status quo. (Strength: 7/10)
- The fact that Weah won the 2017 runoff with a significant margin suggests that he has a strong base of support among Liberian voters. (Strength: 6/10)
- Weah's experience as president and his ability to navigate the complexities of Liberian politics might give him an advantage over Boakai, who has been out of office for several years. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons above, the key factors that might influence the outcome of the election are Weah's positioning as the "plucky outsider" and his ability to connect with voters, as well as the fact that he has a strong base of support among Liberian voters. However, Boakai's strong platform and the fact that the election is heading to a runoff also suggest that the outcome is uncertain.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of George Weah winning re-election as President of Liberia in the 2023 Liberian General Election as 60%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% might be considered somewhat confident, but it is based on a careful analysis of the factors that might influence the outcome of the election. However, it is essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is that the incumbent president is often re-elected in African elections. This might suggest that Weah has an advantage, but it also means that the probability of his re-election is not extremely high.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index (AQI) for at least four days out of the seven days from October 29 to November 4, 2023, according to the historical data shown on or after November 6, 2023, on the AirNow page for New Delhi? The AQI will be considered "Very Unhealthy" or worse if at least one hour on that date is listed as "Very Unhealthy" or worse (AQI value of 201 or higher) in the historical data.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- **Reason 1: Weather Conditions**: New Delhi's air quality can be influenced by various weather conditions, such as wind speed and direction, which can help disperse pollutants and improve air quality. If there are sustained periods of strong winds during the week, it could potentially reduce the concentration of pollutants in the air, making it less likely to reach "Very Unhealthy" levels. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 2: Emissions Reduction Efforts**: The implementation of the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) by the Environment Minister Gopal Rai, including increasing the frequency of public transport services, may help reduce emissions and mitigate the severity of air pollution. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 3: Unpredictability of Agricultural Burning**: While agricultural burning is a significant contributor to Delhi's air pollution, the exact timing and extent of burning can be unpredictable. If there is a delay or reduction in burning during the specified period, it could lead to better air quality. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 4: Historical Variability**: Air quality in Delhi can fluctuate significantly from year to year and even within the same year. There may be periods where the air quality remains relatively good, even during the typically polluted winter months. (Strength: 8/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- **Reason 1: Seasonal Pattern**: Delhi's air quality typically deteriorates during the winter months due to various factors, including low wind speeds, cold temperatures, and increased biomass burning. This seasonal pattern suggests that the air quality is likely to be poor during the specified period. (Strength: 9/10)
- **Reason 2: GRAP Limitations**: While the GRAP has been implemented to combat air pollution, its effectiveness in reducing emissions and improving air quality may be limited, especially if the measures are not strictly enforced or if other factors, such as agricultural burning, are not adequately addressed. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 3: Population and Emissions**: Delhi is one of the world's most populous cities, with a large number of vehicles and industrial activities contributing to emissions. This suggests that the city's air quality is likely to be poor, especially during periods of high pollution. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 4: Historical Data**: Historical data from previous years shows that Delhi's air quality often reaches "Very Unhealthy" levels during the winter months. This suggests that the city's air quality is likely to be poor during the specified period. (Strength: 9/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against, the most significant factors influencing the answer are the seasonal pattern, historical data, and the city's population and emissions. While there are some potential mitigating factors, such as weather conditions and emissions reduction efforts, they are not strong enough to counterbalance the likelihood of poor air quality due to the seasonal pattern and historical data.

5. Initial probability: 70

6. Evaluation of confidence:
The initial probability of 70 seems reasonable, given the aggregated considerations. However, it may be slightly too confident, as there are some potential mitigating factors that could influence the air quality. It's also worth noting that the base rate of poor air quality in Delhi during the winter months is relatively high, which should be taken into account when making the prediction.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: 

Will India request that at least one additional Canadian diplomat be recalled from Canada before January 1, 2024, following the ongoing diplomatic tensions between Canada and India over the alleged involvement of Indian authorities in the killing of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a leader in the movement for an independent Sikh state in the Punjab region of India? 

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. India may have already made its point: By expelling a top Canadian diplomat and issuing an ultimatum for Canada to remove 41 of its diplomats, India may have effectively communicated its displeasure and may not see the need to escalate further. (Strength: 4)
2. Canada's compliance with the ultimatum may have de-escalated tensions: By recalling the 41 Canadian diplomats, Canada may have shown that it is willing to compromise and de-escalate the situation, which could lead India to refrain from further actions. (Strength: 3)
3. India may be focusing on other priorities: India has a wide range of domestic and international issues to focus on, and the diplomatic dispute with Canada may not be a high enough priority to warrant further action. (Strength: 2)
4. Canada may be making concessions: Canada may be making concessions or taking steps to address India's concerns, which could lead India to refrain from further action. (Strength: 2)
5. The situation may be too complex to predict: Diplomatic tensions can be unpredictable and influenced by a wide range of factors, making it difficult to accurately forecast India's next move. (Strength: 1)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. India may feel that Canada has not sufficiently apologized or taken action: India may feel that Canada's response to the allegations has been insufficient, leading India to request further action. (Strength: 4)
2. The killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar may be a sensitive issue for India: The killing of a prominent Sikh leader could be a highly sensitive issue for India, leading India to take further action to demonstrate its displeasure. (Strength: 4)
3. India may be seeking to reassert its authority: India may be seeking to reassert its authority and demonstrate its ability to protect its citizens abroad, which could lead to further action. (Strength: 3)
4. Canada may not have fully complied with India's ultimatum: If Canada did not fully comply with India's ultimatum, India may see this as a sign of disrespect and request further action. (Strength: 2)
5. Diplomatic tensions can escalate quickly: Diplomatic tensions can escalate quickly, and India may request further action as a way to maintain pressure on Canada. (Strength: 2)

Aggregate considerations:

Considering the reasons above, I think that the situation is complex and influenced by a wide range of factors. However, I also think that India may feel that Canada has not sufficiently apologized or taken action, and that the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar is a sensitive issue for India. I would rate the likelihood of India requesting that at least one additional Canadian diplomat be recalled as moderate to high.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of the initial probability:

My initial probability may be overly confident, as the situation is complex and influenced by many factors. However, I think that the reasons why the answer might be yes are stronger than the reasons why the answer might be no. I did not consider the base rate of the event, but I think that it is relatively low, as diplomatic tensions between countries are relatively rare.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Mike Johnson remain as the Speaker of the US House of Representatives continuously until the end of 2023, considering all possible reasons for his potential removal or change in position, including but not limited to resignation, retirement, election loss, loss of majority party status, vote of no confidence, expulsion, impeachment and conviction, disqualification, death, or incapacity, amidst the backdrop of an already tumultuous period in US politics, characterized by intra-Republican discord, conservative divisions, and challenges in finding bipartisan solutions to pressing issues like border security, inflation, and the Middle East conflict, with an impending November 17 deadline to agree on government funding to avoid a shutdown?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Reason 1: Mike Johnson's conservative stances on various policy issues, such as challenging the 2020 election results, may lead to opposition from Democrats, potentially causing a vote of no confidence or other challenges to his leadership. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 2: The looming deadline to agree on government funding and avoid a shutdown could lead to a vote of no confidence or other challenges if Johnson's leadership is perceived as ineffective in resolving the issue. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 3: The ongoing intra-Republican discord and divisions within the party could lead to a leadership challenge or a vote of no confidence against Johnson. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 4: The challenges in finding bipartisan solutions to pressing issues like border security, inflation, and the Middle East conflict could lead to a loss of support for Johnson's leadership. (Strength: 2)
- Reason 5: Mike Johnson's health or personal issues could lead to his incapacitation or resignation. (Strength: 1)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Reason 1: Johnson's election as Speaker, with 220 votes, indicates significant support from within his party, which could help him maintain his position. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 2: The fact that Johnson has outlined key priorities and pledged support for a bill in favor of Israel could help him maintain bipartisan support. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 3: Johnson's conservative stances may also appeal to his base within the Republican Party, which could help him maintain his position. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 4: The fact that Johnson has been elected to the role amid a tumultuous period in US politics may indicate that he has the ability to navigate challenging situations and maintain his position. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against Mike Johnson remaining as Speaker, it seems that the opposition to his leadership is not as strong as the support he has within his party. However, the ongoing challenges in finding bipartisan solutions and the looming deadline to agree on government funding are potential risks to his position.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems relatively confident, considering the potential risks to Johnson's leadership. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is the probability of a Speaker remaining in office until the end of their term. This rate is typically high, as Speakers often serve out their terms. Considering this, the initial probability may be too low.

7. Final prediction: *0.7*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: Will Sevilla win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League final, which is scheduled to take place on June 1st, 2024, at Wembley Stadium? The UEFA Champions League is an annual club association football competition where top-division European clubs compete in a round-robin group stage and a double-legged knockout format to determine the winner. This year's edition features 32 teams, and the winner will be decided in a single-leg final. The question resolves to "Yes" if Sevilla wins the final and "No" for all other teams.

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. Sevilla's recent performance in the Champions League has been inconsistent (Strength: 3). They have not consistently shown the ability to perform at a high level in the competition, which might affect their chances of winning.
2. Sevilla's squad depth and quality might not be enough to compete with top-tier teams (Strength: 4). While they have some talented players, their overall squad depth and quality might not be sufficient to overcome stronger opponents in the knockout stages.
3. Sevilla's head-to-head record against other top teams in the competition might be poor (Strength: 2). This could indicate that they struggle against stronger opponents, which could affect their chances of advancing in the competition.
4. Sevilla's team dynamics and chemistry might not be optimal (Strength: 3). Issues within the team, such as poor communication or conflicting personalities, could negatively impact their performance on the field.
5. Sevilla might face stiff competition from other strong teams in the competition (Strength: 5). The Champions League features many talented teams, and Sevilla might struggle to overcome them in the knockout stages.

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. Sevilla has a strong squad with talented players (Strength: 4). They have some excellent players who can make a significant impact in the competition.
2. Sevilla has a good coach with experience in the Champions League (Strength: 4). Their coach has a good understanding of the competition and can make strategic decisions to help the team succeed.
3. Sevilla has a strong team spirit and a good defense (Strength: 4). They have a solid foundation that can help them compete with top teams.
4. Sevilla has a good record in European competitions (Strength: 3). They have shown that they can perform well in European competitions, which could give them an edge in the Champions League.
5. Sevilla might be able to capitalize on other teams' weaknesses (Strength: 5). If other teams have vulnerabilities, Sevilla might be able to exploit them and advance in the competition.

Aggregated considerations:

* Sevilla's inconsistent performance in the Champions League is a significant concern.
* Their squad depth and quality might not be enough to compete with top-tier teams.
* They have a strong squad with talented players, a good coach, and a solid defense.
* They have a good record in European competitions and might be able to capitalize on other teams' weaknesses.

Initial probability: 30

Evaluation of the calculated probability:

* The calculated probability is relatively low, which might be due to Sevilla's inconsistent performance in the Champions League.
* The base rate of Sevilla winning the Champions League is likely low, as the competition features many strong teams.
* There are valid reasons why Sevilla might win, but there are also significant concerns about their ability to compete with top-tier teams.

Final prediction: *0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Manchester United win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League, which is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA), contested by top-division European clubs, featuring a round robin group stage to qualify for a double-legged knockout format, and a single leg final at Wembley Stadium on June 1st, 2024?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

- Manchester United's squad depth and injury concerns might hinder their performance in the competition. (Strength: 3)
- The team's recent performance in the Premier League has been inconsistent, which might affect their performance in the Champions League. (Strength: 2)
- Other top teams in the competition, such as Real Madrid, Barcelona, or Bayern Munich, might have a stronger squad and more experience in the competition. (Strength: 4)
- Manchester United's manager, Erik ten Hag, might not have the necessary experience to lead the team to a Champions League title. (Strength: 2)
- The team's away form in the Champions League has been a concern in the past. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

- Manchester United has a strong squad with talented players like Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho, and Lisandro Martinez. (Strength: 4)
- The team has shown significant improvement under manager Erik ten Hag, who has a good track record of developing young players. (Strength: 4)
- Manchester United has a good balance of experience and youth in their squad, which could be an advantage in the Champions League. (Strength: 3)
- The team's recent performance in the Premier League has shown signs of improvement, which could translate to the Champions League. (Strength: 3)
- Manchester United has a strong fan base and a rich history of success in the Champions League, which could give them an psychological advantage. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I would say that the team's squad depth, recent performance in the Premier League, and experience of other teams in the competition are significant concerns. However, Manchester United's strong squad, manager's experience, and balance of youth and experience are also notable advantages. Overall, it's a closely balanced competition, but I would lean slightly towards a "no" answer due to the concerns mentioned earlier.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 40% might be too low, considering the team's strong squad and recent improvement under Erik ten Hag. However, the concerns about squad depth, away form, and experience of other teams in the competition might be valid. To balance these factors, I might consider the base rate of Manchester United winning the Champions League, which is relatively low. I might also consider the fact that the team has not won the Champions League in over 20 years.

7. Final prediction: *0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Newcastle United win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League, which is scheduled to be played at Wembley Stadium on June 1st, 2024, according to the UEFA Champions League format? The question resolves "Yes" if Newcastle United emerges victorious in the final, and "No" for any other outcome.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The team's performance in the group stage may not be strong enough to secure a high seeding in the knockout rounds, making it difficult to progress to the final. (Strength: 3)
- Newcastle United may face a tough opponent in the knockout rounds, potentially knocking them out before the final. (Strength: 4)
- The team's squad depth and overall strength may not be sufficient to compete with the top European clubs. (Strength: 2)
- Injuries or suspensions to key players may impact the team's performance in the competition. (Strength: 3)
- The team's manager may not have the tactical expertise or experience to navigate the competition successfully. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Newcastle United has a strong squad with talented players who have performed well in the Premier League. (Strength: 4)
- The team's manager has experience in managing in European competitions and has a good track record. (Strength: 4)
- Newcastle United has a strong team spirit and a good home record, which could give them an advantage in the competition. (Strength: 3)
- The team has invested in their squad during the transfer window, which could give them an edge over other teams. (Strength: 4)
- Newcastle United's fans are known for their dedication and support, which could provide a boost to the team's performance. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons provided, the main factors that could affect Newcastle United's chances are their performance in the group stage, the strength of their squad, and their manager's experience. While there are some potential drawbacks, such as injuries and tough opponents, there are also several positive factors that could work in their favor.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate that the probability of Newcastle United winning the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League is around 12%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 12% may be too low, considering that Newcastle United has a strong squad and a good manager. However, there are many factors that could affect their performance, and it's difficult to predict the outcome of the competition. The base rate of Newcastle United winning the Champions League is low, as the competition is highly competitive and many top teams are vying for the title.

7. Final prediction:
*0.12*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.12
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will AC Milan win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League, which will be determined by the outcome of the final match on 1st June 2024 at Wembley Stadium? The competition features 32 teams, and the winner will be decided through a round-robin group stage and a double-legged knockout format.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
   a. The strength of the competition: The 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League features 32 teams from top divisions across Europe, including strong teams like Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, and Manchester City. These teams have a high level of experience and talent, which could make it challenging for AC Milan to emerge victorious. (Strength: 6/10)
   b. Injuries and team dynamics: Injuries to key players or internal conflicts within the team can significantly impact a team's performance. AC Milan might face injuries or team dynamics issues that could hinder their chances of winning the tournament. (Strength: 5/10)
   c. Group stage performance: AC Milan's performance in the group stage will be crucial in determining their chances of advancing to the knockout stage. If they struggle in the group stage, they might not qualify for the knockout stage, making it impossible to win the tournament. (Strength: 7/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
   a. AC Milan's squad quality: AC Milan has a strong squad with talented players like Olivier Giroud, Rafael Leão, and Fikayo Tomori. They have a good balance of youth and experience, which could help them compete against other top teams. (Strength: 8/10)
   b. Coaching experience: AC Milan has a relatively new coach, but Stefano Pioli has shown his ability to manage the team effectively, and his experience in Italian football could be an asset. (Strength: 6/10)
   c. Recent form: AC Milan has been in good form in the 2023/2024 season, which could give them momentum heading into the Champions League. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the reasons above, it seems that AC Milan faces a tough competition and might struggle in the group stage or face internal issues. However, their squad quality and recent form are positives that could help them in the tournament.

5. Initial probability: Based on the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of AC Milan winning the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League to be around 20%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability: The initial probability might be too low, as it doesn't account for the base rate of the event. The UEFA Champions League is a highly competitive tournament, and it's not uncommon for underdogs to win. However, considering the strength of the competition, I still believe that AC Milan's chances are relatively low.

7. Final prediction: *0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Union Berlin win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League final, which is scheduled to take place at Wembley Stadium on June 1, 2024, according to the official UEFA competition schedule? The UEFA Champions League is an annual club football competition featuring 32 top European teams, with the winner determined through a group stage and a knockout format. The question resolves to "Yes" if Union Berlin emerges as the champion on the final day of the competition.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The team might not perform well in the knockout stage, particularly in the semi-finals or quarter-finals, which could eliminate them from the competition (Strength: 4).
- Union Berlin might struggle to adapt to the high level of competition in the Champions League, which features some of the best teams in Europe (Strength: 4).
- The team might face a strong opponent in the final, potentially led by a more experienced or skilled coach (Strength: 4).
- Union Berlin could suffer from injuries or suspensions to key players, which could weaken their chances of winning (Strength: 3).
- The team might not be able to overcome the pressure and expectations of playing in the Champions League final (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Union Berlin has shown impressive form in the Bundesliga, which could translate to success in the Champions League (Strength: 4).
- The team has a strong squad with talented players who could excel in the Champions League (Strength: 4).
- Union Berlin's coach has experience managing teams in high-pressure situations, which could help the team perform well in the final (Strength: 3).
- The team's home fans could provide a significant advantage in the final, which could boost their morale and energy (Strength: 3).
- Union Berlin has a good balance of youth and experience in their squad, which could give them an edge over more one-dimensional teams (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I would say that the "no" reasons are slightly stronger, particularly the first four points. However, Union Berlin's form in the Bundesliga and the strength of their squad are significant advantages. I would also consider the home advantage in the final, which could give them an edge.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would initially estimate the probability of Union Berlin winning the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League at 25%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability seems quite low, considering that Union Berlin has shown impressive form in the Bundesliga. However, the Champions League is a highly competitive competition, and many factors can influence the outcome. I might be underestimating the strength of the other teams in the competition. Additionally, the base rate of the event (winning the Champions League) is relatively low, as only one team can win the competition.

7. Final prediction:
*0.22*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.22
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Lens win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League title, which is scheduled to be decided in a single-legged final match at Wembley Stadium on June 1, 2024? 

This question is based on the UEFA Champions League, a prestigious annual club football competition featuring 32 top-division European teams. The competition progresses through a round-robin group stage and a double-legged knockout format before the final. Given the information, we need to determine the likelihood of Lens emerging as the champions in the 2023/2024 edition.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- Lens has a relatively weaker squad compared to other top teams in the competition (Strength: 3).
- The team might struggle with the pressure of playing in the Champions League, which can be intense and demanding (Strength: 2).
- Lens may face strong competition from other top teams in their group, potentially making it difficult for them to advance (Strength: 4).
- The team's performance in the group stage might not be consistent, which could impact their chances in the knockout rounds (Strength: 3).
- Injuries to key players could significantly affect Lens's performance and chances of winning the title (Strength: 5).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- Lens has a strong team dynamic and a well-structured playing style, which could help them perform consistently throughout the competition (Strength: 4).
- The team has shown promising results in previous seasons, indicating their potential to compete at a high level (Strength: 3).
- Lens has a good balance of experienced players and young talent, which could be beneficial in the Champions League (Strength: 4).
- The team's manager has a proven track record of success in European competitions, which could be an asset (Strength: 5).
- Lens has a strong home record, which could give them an advantage in the knockout stages (Strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both yes and no, it seems that the strengths of the arguments are relatively balanced. However, the potential for injuries (Strength: 5) and the team's relative weakness compared to others (Strength: 3) might give a slight edge to the "no" argument. On the other hand, Lens's team dynamic, balance of experience and youth, and the manager's track record are significant strengths that could contribute to a "yes" outcome.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of Lens winning the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League title to be around 22.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
Upon reflection, the initial probability of 22 might be considered relatively low, especially considering the strengths of the "yes" arguments. The initial probability might be influenced by the general underdog status of Lens in the competition. However, it's essential to consider that the Champions League is unpredictable, and upsets can occur. The base rate of the event (winning the Champions League) is relatively low, but it's also a competition where underdogs can sometimes achieve remarkable results.

7. Final prediction:
*0.28*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.28
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Benfica win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League, which is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA), featuring 32 top-division European teams competing in a round robin group stage followed by a double-legged knockout format culminating in a single-leg final on June 1st, 2024, at Wembley Stadium?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1 to 5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Reason 1: Benfica's inconsistent performance in the Champions League in recent years (Strength: 2)
- Reason 2: The strong competition from top-tier teams in the 2023/2024 edition (Strength: 4)
- Reason 3: Injuries or suspensions to key players (Strength: 3)
- Reason 4: Upsets in the knockout stages, which are notoriously unpredictable (Strength: 5)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1 to 5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Reason 1: Benfica's strong squad and recent domestic league performance (Strength: 4)
- Reason 2: The team's experience and familiarity with the Champions League format (Strength: 3)
- Reason 3: The potential for a favorable draw in the group stage and knockout rounds (Strength: 2)
- Reason 4: The possibility of key players performing well and rising to the occasion (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Benfica's strong squad and recent domestic league performance are significant advantages, but the strong competition, potential injuries, and upsets in the knockout stages are significant drawbacks. The team's experience and familiarity with the Champions League format could be a decisive factor, but it's hard to predict the outcome of upsets.

5. Initial probability: 45

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 45% seems reasonable, considering the factors mentioned. However, it might be too low, given Benfica's strong squad and recent performance. The base rate of the event (winning the Champions League) is relatively low, but Benfica's chances are higher than average due to their strengths.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Feyenoord win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League, which is scheduled to be decided in a single-leg final on the 1st of June 2024 at Wembley Stadium? The UEFA Champions League is a prestigious annual club association football competition featuring top-division European clubs, with 32 teams competing in the 2023/2024 edition. Feyenoord's chances of winning the competition will be determined by their performance in the group stage and knockout rounds, culminating in the final match. The question resolves to "Yes" if Feyenoord emerges victorious in the final, and "No" for all other teams.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Feyenoord's squad depth and team cohesion might be a concern (Strength: 3). 
- Other teams, such as Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Bayern Munich, have historically dominated the competition and might have a strong chance of winning (Strength: 5).
- Feyenoord might struggle with injuries or player suspensions during the competition (Strength: 2).
- The team's performance in the group stage might not be strong enough to secure a favorable knockout round draw (Strength: 4).
- Other factors such as team morale, coaching, and strategic decisions can significantly impact the outcome (Strength: 3).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Feyenoord has a talented squad with skilled players (Strength: 4).
- The team has a good coach and a well-structured coaching staff (Strength: 3).
- Feyenoord has a strong home record and can use their home advantage in the competition (Strength: 2).
- The team's determination and team spirit might give them an edge in crucial matches (Strength: 3).
- Feyenoord might be able to exploit weaknesses in their opponents' defenses (Strength: 4).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, Feyenoord's chances of winning the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League are affected by various factors, including their squad depth, team cohesion, and performance in the group stage. While they have talented players and a good coach, they face stiff competition from other top teams. The strength of their squad and team dynamics will be crucial in determining their chances.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I estimate Feyenoord's chances of winning the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League to be around 12%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 12% seems relatively low, considering that Feyenoord is a strong team with a good coach and talented players. However, the competition is fierce, and other top teams have historically dominated the competition. It's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is the general likelihood of a team winning the Champions League. This base rate is relatively low, as only a few teams have won the competition in recent years.

7. Final prediction:
*0.12*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.12
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will RB Salzburg win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League, which is scheduled to be played on June 1st, 2024, at Wembley Stadium, as determined by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA)? The competition involves 32 teams, with a round-robin group stage and a double-legged knockout format leading up to the final. The question resolves to "Yes" if RB Salzburg emerges as the winner on the final day.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- RB Salzburg has a relatively small budget compared to other top European teams (Strength: 3). This might limit their ability to attract and retain top talent.
- They have not historically performed well in the Champions League, with limited success in previous tournaments (Strength: 4). This suggests they might struggle against stronger opponents.
- The team's performance can be inconsistent, with fluctuations in form affecting their chances of winning the competition (Strength: 2). This inconsistency might make it difficult for them to sustain a winning streak throughout the tournament.
- Other teams in the competition, such as the favorites like Real Madrid, Barcelona, or Manchester City, have stronger squads and more experience in the Champions League (Strength: 5). This gives them a significant advantage over RB Salzburg.
- Injuries or key player absences can significantly impact a team's performance, and RB Salzburg might be vulnerable to such setbacks (Strength: 3).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- RB Salzburg has a strong team dynamic and a well-structured playing style, which has served them well in the Austrian Bundesliga (Strength: 4). This cohesion could help them perform well in the Champions League.
- They have a talented young squad with players who can make a significant impact on the competition (Strength: 4). This youth and energy might give them an edge over more experienced teams.
- RB Salzburg's manager, Matthias Jaissle, has experience in the Champions League and has shown his ability to adapt to the competition (Strength: 3). This experience could be crucial in guiding the team through the tournament.
- The team has a strong home record, which could give them an advantage in the group stage and potentially in the knockout rounds (Strength: 3). This home-field advantage might help them secure crucial wins.
- RB Salzburg has shown improvement in recent seasons, both domestically and in European competitions, which suggests they are on an upward trajectory (Strength: 4). This trend could continue and help them achieve success in the Champions League.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that the team's lack of experience and budget might be significant drawbacks. However, their strong team dynamic, talented young squad, and improving performance over the past few seasons suggest they are a force to be reckoned with. The team's ability to adapt and perform well in the Champions League will be crucial in determining their chances of winning.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of RB Salzburg winning the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League at 30%.

6. Evaluation and additional considerations:
Upon further reflection, I realize that my initial probability might be too low. While RB Salzburg's drawbacks are significant, their recent improvement and the unpredictability of the Champions League make it difficult to rule them out entirely. Additionally, the base rate of the event is relatively low, as only one team can win the competition. Considering these factors, I might be underestimating their chances.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Celtic win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? 
Given that the UEFA Champions League is an annual club association football competition, and the 2023/2024 edition features 32 teams competing in a round-robin group stage followed by a double-legged knockout format, and culminating in a single-leg final at Wembley Stadium on June 1st, 2024, what are the chances of Celtic emerging victorious?

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating out of 5):
1. Celtic's recent performance in European competitions has been inconsistent, with a history of struggling against top-tier teams (Strength: 4).
2. The team's squad depth and quality may not be on par with other top European clubs, which could hinder their chances of progressing in the competition (Strength: 3.5).
3. Celtic will face stiff competition from other top teams in the group stage, which could lead to a difficult path to the final (Strength: 4.5).
4. The team's experience in managing the physical and mental demands of a long European campaign may be a challenge (Strength: 3).

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating out of 5):
1. Celtic has shown resilience and determination in previous seasons, often punching above their weight in European competitions (Strength: 4).
2. The team has a strong home record, which could be a significant advantage in the competition (Strength: 4.5).
3. Celtic has a talented young squad with potential for growth and development, which could be a key factor in their success (Strength: 4).
4. The team's manager has experience in European competitions and has shown the ability to adapt and make strategic decisions (Strength: 4).

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of Celtic, as well as the competitive nature of the UEFA Champions League, it's essential to weigh the factors that could contribute to their success. While Celtic's recent performance has been inconsistent, and their squad depth and quality may not be on par with top European clubs, they have shown resilience and determination in previous seasons. Additionally, their strong home record and talented young squad could be significant advantages.

Initial probability: 22

Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability of 22% may be too low, given Celtic's history of punching above their weight in European competitions. However, it's essential to consider the competitive nature of the UEFA Champions League and the many factors that could affect Celtic's chances. The base rate of Celtic winning the competition is extremely low, given the number of participating teams and the difficulty of the competition. This should temper the initial probability.

Final prediction: *0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Galatasaray win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League, which will be decided by the outcome of the final match on 1st June 2024 at Wembley Stadium? This question is contingent upon the team's performance in the round-robin group stage and the subsequent knockout format, ultimately culminating in the final match.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated 1-5, with 5 being the strongest):
- **Reason 1: Competition from top European teams** (Strength: 4/5) - The UEFA Champions League features top teams from Europe, including powerhouses like Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, and Manchester City, which could pose a significant challenge to Galatasaray's chances.
- **Reason 2: Inconsistent performance in previous seasons** (Strength: 3/5) - Galatasaray's past performance in the Champions League has been inconsistent, with some strong seasons and others where they failed to make a significant impact.
- **Reason 3: Group stage difficulties** (Strength: 4/5) - The group stage can be a challenging hurdle for any team, and Galatasaray might struggle to advance to the knockout phase, which would eliminate them from the competition.
- **Reason 4: Lack of experience in the knockout stage** (Strength: 2/5) - Galatasaray might not have the same level of experience as other teams in the knockout stage, which could put them at a disadvantage.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated 1-5, with 5 being the strongest):
- **Reason 1: Recent form and team improvement** (Strength: 4/5) - Galatasaray has shown improvement in recent seasons and has been performing well in the Turkish Super League, which could translate to success in the Champions League.
- **Reason 2: Strong squad and depth** (Strength: 4/5) - Galatasaray has a solid squad with a good balance of experience and youth, which could be an advantage in the competition.
- **Reason 3: Home advantage in the final (if they make it that far)** (Strength: 3/5) - If Galatasaray were to make it to the final, playing at home could be a significant advantage, as they would be familiar with the conditions and crowd.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the factors that seem to have the most significant impact on Galatasaray's chances are their recent form, squad strength, and the competition from top European teams. While there are valid reasons to doubt their chances, the team's improvement and strong squad give them a glimmer of hope.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would rate Galatasaray's chances of winning the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League at 22%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the potential impact of Galatasaray's recent form and squad strength. However, it also acknowledges the significant competition from top European teams, which could be a major obstacle for Galatasaray.

7. Final prediction:
*0.22*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.22
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Braga win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League title, as determined by the outcome of the final match on 1st June 2024 at Wembley Stadium, according to the official UEFA Champions League competition rules and regulations? 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- Braga's performance in the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League group stage may not be strong enough to carry them through the knockout stages (Strength: 6/10)
- Braga's squad depth and team cohesion might be inferior to other top-tier teams in the competition (Strength: 7/10)
- Braga's coach or manager might not have the tactical expertise to outmaneuver other top teams (Strength: 5/10)
- Braga might face a tough draw in the knockout stages, potentially leading to an early exit (Strength: 8/10)
- Braga's players might suffer injuries or other setbacks during the competition, impacting their chances (Strength: 6/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- Braga has shown improvement in recent seasons and might be able to capitalize on their momentum (Strength: 4/10)
- Braga has a talented young squad with potential for growth and development (Strength: 5/10)
- Braga's home stadium and fan support could provide a significant advantage in the competition (Strength: 3/10)
- Braga might be able to exploit weaknesses in the opposing teams' defenses (Strength: 6/10)
- Braga has a good record against top-tier teams in European competitions (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
- The strengths of the "no" reasons are higher, with a total of 32 out of 50, while the strengths of the "yes" reasons add up to 23 out of 50.
- The "no" reasons seem to be more impactful and plausible, given the competitive nature of the UEFA Champions League.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of Braga winning the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League at 20%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 20% might be too low, given the uncertainty of the competition and the possibility of Braga's underdog story unfolding. However, considering the strengths of the "no" reasons and the competitive nature of the UEFA Champions League, the initial probability seems reasonable.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Young Boys win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League, which is scheduled to be decided by a final match at Wembley Stadium on June 1, 2024, according to UEFA? The competition involves 32 teams competing in a round-robin group stage followed by a double-legged knockout format, and the final match will determine the winner among the remaining teams. The question resolves "Yes" for Young Boys if they win the final match, and "No" for all other teams.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-10 for strength, with 1 being weak and 10 being strong):
- Young Boys might not make it past the group stage, which could eliminate them from the competition (strength: 6). 
- They could lose in the knockout rounds, potentially in a single-elimination match (strength: 7).
- Other top teams, such as Real Madrid, Barcelona, or Manchester City, might have a stronger squad or more experience in the Champions League, giving them an advantage over Young Boys (strength: 8).
- Young Boys might struggle with the pressure and physical demands of the competition, particularly if they are considered underdogs (strength: 4).
- Injuries or suspensions to key players could weaken Young Boys' chances (strength: 5).
- The team's performance in the group stage might not be strong enough to secure a high seeding in the knockout rounds, making it harder for them to progress (strength: 6).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-10 for strength, with 1 being weak and 10 being strong):
- Young Boys have shown improvement in recent seasons and might be a dark horse in the competition (strength: 4).
- They have a strong team dynamic and could benefit from their experience playing together (strength: 5).
- Young Boys' coach, Raphaël Wicky, has a good track record of leading the team to success (strength: 6).
- The team's home stadium, the Stade de Suisse Wankdorf, might provide a significant advantage in the group stage, especially if they are able to secure home-field advantage (strength: 3).
- Young Boys have a good squad with a balance of youth and experience, which could help them compete with top teams (strength: 7).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the factors working against Young Boys are stronger than those in their favor. However, it's essential to note that the UEFA Champions League is an unpredictable competition, and upsets can occur. Young Boys' performance in the group stage and knockout rounds will be crucial in determining their chances.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Young Boys winning the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League to be around 12%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability of 12% might be considered too low, given that Young Boys have a chance of winning the competition. However, the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of any team winning the Champions League) is not explicitly stated, but it's generally considered to be around 1 in 32, or approximately 3.1%. This means that Young Boys' probability of winning is actually higher than the base rate, but still relatively low.

7. Final prediction:
*0.125*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.125
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will Crvena Zvezda win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League, which is scheduled to take place at Wembley Stadium on the 1st of June 2024? This question resolves to "Yes" if Crvena Zvezda emerges as the winner of the tournament, and "No" for any other outcome. The question is based on the current information available up to 2023-10-26.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
   - Crvena Zvezda's performance in the group stage might be inconsistent, which could lead to an early elimination (Strength: 4). 
   - The team might face a strong opponent in the knockout stages, potentially knocking them out (Strength: 6).
   - Crvena Zvezda could experience injuries or key player absences that would impact their chances (Strength: 5).
   - The team's overall squad depth and quality might not be sufficient to compete against top-tier teams (Strength: 7).
   - Other top teams in the competition might have a stronger squad or more experience, giving them an advantage (Strength: 8).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
   - Crvena Zvezda has a strong squad and a well-coached team, which could give them an edge (Strength: 8).
   - The team has shown potential in recent matches and might be able to capitalize on their momentum (Strength: 6).
   - Crvena Zvezda has a good balance between youth and experience, which could be beneficial in the competition (Strength: 5).
   - The team's home crowd support could provide a significant advantage in their matches (Strength: 4).
   - Crvena Zvezda might be able to exploit the weaknesses of their opponents (Strength: 7).

4. Aggregated considerations:
   The reasons for a "no" outcome are stronger, with a total strength rating of 30 (4+6+5+7+8). The reasons for a "yes" outcome have a total strength rating of 24 (8+6+5+4+7). This suggests that the likelihood of Crvena Zvezda winning the UEFA Champions League is lower.

5. Initial probability: 35. Based on the aggregated considerations, the initial probability of Crvena Zvezda winning the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League is 35.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
   The initial probability of 35 seems to be a reasonable estimate based on the provided information. However, it might be too low considering the strength of Crvena Zvezda's squad and their recent performances. The base rate of the event (winning the UEFA Champions League) is relatively low, but it's difficult to estimate without more information.

7. Final prediction: *0.375*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.375
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League, which is scheduled to be held at Wembley Stadium on the 1st of June 2024, as determined by the outcome of the final match, according to the official UEFA Champions League rules and regulations? 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reason 1: Shakhtar Donetsk's inconsistent performance in previous seasons. (Strength: 3/10)
Shakhtar Donetsk has experienced fluctuations in their performance in recent years, which might impact their chances in the Champions League. However, this reason is relatively weak as it doesn't directly relate to their current team dynamics or the upcoming season.
- Reason 2: Competition from top-tier teams. (Strength: 7/10)
The 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League features a strong lineup of teams, including reigning champions, previous winners, and top teams from various European leagues. Shakhtar Donetsk will face stiff competition, which increases the likelihood of them not winning.
- Reason 3: Team injuries and player availability. (Strength: 4/10)
Injuries and player unavailability can significantly impact a team's performance, especially in a high-stakes competition like the Champions League. However, without specific information about Shakhtar Donetsk's current injury situation, this reason is relatively weak.
- Reason 4: Group stage performance. (Strength: 5/10)
Shakhtar Donetsk's performance in the group stage will be crucial in determining their chances of advancing to the knockout stage. A poor performance in the group stage could make it challenging for them to progress, increasing the likelihood of them not winning the Champions League.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Reason 1: Shakhtar Donetsk's recent form. (Strength: 6/10)
Shakhtar Donetsk has shown promising performances in recent seasons, including a strong start to the 2023/2024 season. This recent form could indicate a strong chance of success in the Champions League.
- Reason 2: Managerial experience. (Strength: 5/10)
Shakhtar Donetsk's manager has experience in European competitions and has led the team to success in the past. This experience could be beneficial in navigating the Champions League.
- Reason 3: Team cohesion. (Strength: 7/10)
A strong team dynamic and cohesion can significantly impact a team's performance in the Champions League. Shakhtar Donetsk has a dedicated fan base and a history of producing talented players, which could contribute to a cohesive team.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the most significant factors affecting Shakhtar Donetsk's chances of winning the Champions League are their competition from top-tier teams (Reason 2) and their recent form (Reason 1). While Shakhtar Donetsk has shown promise in recent seasons, they will face stiff competition from other strong teams. However, their recent form and managerial experience might give them an edge.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Shakhtar Donetsk winning the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League to be around 12%. This is a relatively low probability due to the strong competition and the uncertainty surrounding the team's performance.

6. Evaluation and additional considerations:
Upon further reflection, I realize that my initial probability might be too low. The Champions League is a highly unpredictable competition, and many factors can influence the outcome. Additionally, Shakhtar Donetsk has a dedicated fan base and a history of producing talented players, which could contribute to their chances. Considering the base rate of the event (the probability of any team winning the Champions League), I should adjust my initial probability to be more conservative but not excessively low.

7. Final prediction:
*0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Antwerp win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League, which is scheduled to be held at Wembley Stadium on June 1st, 2024, as determined by the final outcome according to the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA)? The 2023/2024 edition features 32 teams competing in a round-robin group stage followed by a double-legged knockout format, and the final will be the culmination of this competition. 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- Antwerp might not perform well in the group stage, failing to advance to the knockout rounds (Strength: 4).
- The team might face a strong opponent in the knockout rounds, potentially leading to an early elimination (Strength: 7).
- Antwerp's squad might suffer injuries or suspensions during the competition, affecting their performance (Strength: 3).
- The team's form might dip during the latter stages of the competition, causing them to lose momentum (Strength: 5).
- Other top teams in the competition might perform better, making it difficult for Antwerp to win the title (Strength: 8).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- Antwerp has a strong squad with talented players who can compete against top teams (Strength: 6).
- The team's coach has experience in managing high-pressure situations and might lead the team to a successful run (Strength: 5).
- Antwerp's home crowd might provide a significant advantage in their matches, helping the team gain momentum (Strength: 4).
- The team has shown improvement in their previous performances, indicating potential for success (Strength: 7).
- Antwerp's opponents might underestimate them, allowing the team to gain an advantage (Strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, it seems that the reasons for a no answer are slightly stronger. The top reasons for a no answer are the potential for Antwerp to face strong opponents, their squad's vulnerability to injuries or suspensions, and the possibility of other top teams performing better. However, the reasons for a yes answer also have some weight, particularly Antwerp's strong squad and coach experience.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of Antwerp winning the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League to be around 25.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability might be considered not confident enough, given the strength of some of the reasons for a no answer. However, it's also important to consider the base rate of the event, which is that a team winning the Champions League is a relatively rare occurrence. This might affect the overall probability, but it's difficult to quantify without more information.

7. Final prediction:
*0.20*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.2
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will there be at least six Russian companies that complete their Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (MICEX) by the end of 2023, according to data from PREQVECA.ru? The question focuses on the MICEX trading floor and Russian companies that have completed their IPOs between January 1, 2023, and December 31, 2023. The resolution of this question depends on the number of additional Russian IPOs on the MICEX in 2023, considering that five companies have already gone public as of November 1, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Russian economy has been facing significant challenges due to the ongoing conflict with Ukraine and international sanctions, which may deter companies from going public. (Strength: 4)
- The Russian stock market has been volatile, and the economic uncertainty might discourage companies from undertaking IPOs. (Strength: 3)
- The regulatory environment in Russia might be less favorable for IPOs, making it more challenging for companies to go public. (Strength: 2)
- The data from PREQVECA.ru might not be comprehensive or up-to-date, potentially underestimating the number of IPOs. (Strength: 1)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Russian government has been actively promoting the development of the stock market, which might encourage companies to go public. (Strength: 4)
- The MICEX has been working to improve its infrastructure and attract more investors, making it a more attractive platform for IPOs. (Strength: 3)
- The existing five IPOs in 2023 indicate a growing interest in going public among Russian companies, which could lead to more companies following suit. (Strength: 4)
- The data from PREQVECA.ru might be accurate, and there could be a steady flow of IPOs throughout the year. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the factors pointing towards a "no" are more related to the external environment (economy, sanctions, and regulatory environment), while the factors pointing towards a "yes" are more related to the internal factors (government promotion, market development, and existing IPOs). The strength of the "no" factors is slightly higher, but the "yes" factors are still significant. A balanced assessment suggests that there is a possibility of additional IPOs, but the uncertainty surrounding the external environment might limit the number of new IPOs.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the initial probability of at least six Russian companies completing their IPOs on the MICEX by the end of 2023 as 60.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, considering the balanced assessment of the factors. However, it might be considered not confident enough, given the strength of the "no" factors. A more conservative approach might be warranted.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024, given that the first integrated flight test occurred on April 20, 2023, and resulted in significant damage to the launchpad, debris, and particulate matter concerns? Considering the FAA's ongoing environmental review, which includes an updated Biological Assessment under the Endangered Species Act, will the necessary regulatory hurdles be cleared in time for the second integrated flight test to occur before the end of 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- The FAA's environmental review is still pending, which could lead to further delays. (Strength: 8/10)
- The first integrated flight test resulted in significant damage to the launchpad, which may require extensive repairs or modifications, potentially delaying the next test. (Strength: 7/10)
- The FAA and the USFWS must complete their consultation on the updated Biological Assessment under the Endangered Species Act, which may take time. (Strength: 6/10)
- SpaceX may need to address additional regulatory or safety concerns raised by the mishap investigation and safety review. (Strength: 5/10)
- The company might prioritize other projects or tasks over the second integrated flight test. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- SpaceX has a history of pushing the boundaries of space technology and achieving ambitious goals, which might motivate the company to expedite the second integrated flight test. (Strength: 7/10)
- The FAA's investigation and review processes may be completed more quickly than expected, allowing for an earlier test date. (Strength: 6/10)
- SpaceX might have made significant progress in addressing the issues raised by the first integrated flight test, reducing the risk of further delays. (Strength: 5/10)
- The company has a strong track record of innovation and efficiency, which could help them overcome regulatory hurdles and complete the necessary work in a timely manner. (Strength: 5/10)
- The second integrated flight test might be scheduled to occur sooner than initially anticipated, allowing for an earlier launch date. (Strength: 4/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the ongoing environmental review, potential delays in repairs or modifications to the launchpad, and the need for further consultation with the USFWS, the initial inclination is that the answer might be no. However, SpaceX's history of innovation and efficiency, as well as the possibility of an accelerated test schedule, suggest that the answer might be yes. The strength of the reasons against the answer being yes (environmental review, launchpad repairs, and regulatory concerns) outweighs the reasons for it being yes, but the possibility of an accelerated test schedule and SpaceX's track record of innovation mitigate this.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems reasonable given the ongoing environmental review and potential delays in repairs or modifications to the launchpad. However, it may be too cautious, as SpaceX's history of innovation and efficiency could lead to a more optimistic outcome. The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a second integrated flight test occurring within a specific timeframe) is not explicitly stated, but it's likely that the event is rare, which might influence the probability.

7. Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024, as a result of court proceedings related to the indictments in New York, Florida, Washington D.C., and Georgia, or the civil case in New York, given the current gag order violations and fines imposed on him?

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong)**

1. Trump's ability to appeal and challenge court decisions (Strength: 4) - As a high-profile figure with significant resources, Trump may be able to appeal and challenge court decisions, potentially delaying or preventing his confinement.
2. The complexity of the cases (Strength: 3) - The multiple indictments and cases against Trump may lead to a complex and lengthy legal process, making it less likely that he will be confined before January 1, 2024.
3. The unpredictability of judges and court decisions (Strength: 2) - Judges may be hesitant to impose harsh penalties on Trump, given his high profile and potential for public backlash.
4. Trump's ability to comply with gag orders (Strength: 1) - Trump has shown a willingness to disregard gag orders in the past, but it is possible that he may comply with them in the future, avoiding confinement.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong)**

1. The severity of the DC case (Strength: 5) - As mentioned by Ty Cobb, Judge Tanya Chutkan's case may lead to a heavier penalty, including confinement, given the reinstatement of the gag order after Trump's appeal.
2. Trump's history of disregarding court orders (Strength: 4) - Trump's past behavior suggests that he may continue to disregard court orders, leading to potential penalties, including confinement.
3. The cumulative effect of multiple cases (Strength: 3) - The multiple indictments and cases against Trump may lead to a cumulative effect, increasing the likelihood of confinement.
4. The desire for a deterrent effect (Strength: 2) - Judges may impose confinement as a deterrent to Trump's behavior, given the severity of the cases and the need to maintain the integrity of the legal process.

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Considering the reasons above, I believe that the likelihood of Trump being confined to a jail cell before January 1, 2024, is moderate to high. While there are valid reasons why he may avoid confinement, the severity of the DC case and Trump's history of disregarding court orders suggest that confinement is a plausible outcome.

**Initial Probability: 60**

**Evaluation of Confidence:**

My initial probability of 60 may be too low, given the strength of the reasons why Trump may be confined. However, I want to consider the base rate of the event, which is relatively low. The probability of a high-profile figure like Trump being confined to a jail cell is not common, and I should not overestimate the likelihood.

**Final Prediction:**

*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Bitcoin (BTC) reach or exceed a price of $40,000 before January 1, 2024, based on the price data from CoinMarketCap, which is the primary resolution source? The resolution criteria is met if the price is reached or exceeded at any point before January 1, 2024, regardless of whether it is sustained or not. If there is uncertainty regarding the threshold being met, we will use the five-minute increments available on the one-day price view on the chart. The question resolves based solely on the availability of data from CoinMarketCap, and if it is unavailable, other comparable sources may be used, with CoinMarketCap being the primary source in case of disagreements. The question is open until December 31, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- The crypto market has been historically volatile, and a downturn could occur before January 1, 2024 (Strength: 6). 
- The FTX collapse and the general crypto market downturn in 2022 set a precedent for significant price drops, and a similar event could occur (Strength: 7).
- Regulatory pressures and government crackdowns on crypto could negatively impact the market (Strength: 5).
- The current surge in price might be a short-term bubble that bursts before reaching $40,000 (Strength: 8).
- The global economic situation, including inflation and interest rates, could negatively impact the demand for Bitcoin (Strength: 6).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- The recent surge in price suggests a growing interest in Bitcoin and a potential long-term increase in value (Strength: 8).
- The limited supply of Bitcoin and increasing demand could drive the price up (Strength: 9).
- The adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors and companies could increase its value (Strength: 7).
- The current economic uncertainty and inflation could drive investors to Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset (Strength: 6).
- The improvements in infrastructure and usability of Bitcoin could increase its adoption and value (Strength: 5).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, I weigh the strength of each argument. The arguments for a no answer are centered around the historical volatility of the crypto market, potential regulatory pressures, and the risk of a short-term bubble. The arguments for a yes answer focus on the recent surge in price, limited supply, increasing demand, adoption by institutional investors, and the potential for Bitcoin to serve as a safe-haven asset. While there are valid concerns about the crypto market, the recent price surge and growing adoption suggest a potential for continued growth. However, the volatility and potential regulatory risks cannot be ignored.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations, I estimate the probability of Bitcoin reaching $40,000 before January 1, 2024, to be around 62%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
My initial probability seems reasonable, considering the arguments for both sides. However, I might be underestimating the potential for a short-term bubble or regulatory pressures. On the other hand, I might be overestimating the impact of historical volatility. Considering the base rate of the event, it's essential to remember that Bitcoin's price has been known to fluctuate significantly over the years. This question's resolution is dependent on a specific event (reaching $40,000) within a short timeframe, which adds to the uncertainty.

7. Final prediction:
*0.625*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.625
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before December 31, 2023, in a move that is publicly acknowledged and documented, despite previous instances of cancelled trips and the reluctance of Israeli leaders to publicly condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the fact that Israel has maintained friendly relations with Russia, which may create tension in Zelenskyy's visit?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-5, where 1 is a weak reason and 5 is a strong reason):
- Zelenskyy's previous trip was cancelled due to Israeli concerns, indicating that the Israeli government might still be hesitant to host him (Strength: 4)
- Israel's ongoing friendly relations with Russia may create a delicate situation, making it difficult for Zelenskyy to visit (Strength: 4)
- Zelenskyy's desire for a public visit might be met with resistance from Israeli leaders, who may prefer a more private approach (Strength: 3)
- The recent leak of the trip's planning might have damaged the relationship between the two countries, making it harder for Zelenskyy to visit (Strength: 3)
- The Gaza-Israel conflict and the tensions surrounding it might overshadow Zelenskyy's visit, making it less of a priority (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-5, where 1 is a weak reason and 5 is a strong reason):
- Zelenskyy's initial intention to visit Israel suggests that he is willing to make the trip despite the challenges (Strength: 4)
- The recent reporting on the trip's advanced planning stages indicates that there is still momentum behind the visit (Strength: 4)
- Ukraine's pro-Israel stance might create a common ground for cooperation and diplomacy, making the visit more feasible (Strength: 3)
- Zelenskyy's desire for a public visit might be a sign of his confidence in the relationship between the two countries (Strength: 3)
- The fact that the trip was leaked and then cancelled might have been a tactical move by Israeli leaders to gauge public opinion and create a more favorable environment for the visit (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, I would rate the overall strength of the reasons for a yes answer as 3.5 out of 5 and the reasons for a no answer as 3.2 out of 5. This suggests that the balance of evidence slightly favors a yes answer, but it's a close call.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially predict a probability of 55% that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will visit Israel before December 31, 2023.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 55% seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident given the close balance of evidence. A more conservative approach might be to assign a lower probability, around 40-50%. This would reflect the uncertainty and potential for both yes and no outcomes.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Delhi perform cloud seeding with chemicals like silver iodide or dry ice to induce precipitation and potentially alleviate air pollution in the region before December 1, 2023, as per reports from credible sources, considering the Indian Institute of Technology in Kanpur plans to carry out the experiment around November 20, 2023, if weather conditions are favorable, and Delhi officials are seeking permission from federal agencies to try cloud seeding?

Reasons why the answer might be no:
1. **Lack of cloud cover**: Delhi generally lacks significant cloud cover with reasonable moisture content during the winter, which is a requirement for cloud seeding to work properly. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Uncertainty in weather conditions**: Weather conditions are unpredictable, and it's possible that the planned cloud seeding date of November 20 might not be feasible due to unfavorable weather conditions. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Delays in obtaining necessary permissions**: Delhi officials are seeking permission from federal agencies, which might lead to delays in the cloud seeding experiment. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Alternative solutions**: Delhi has tried other methods to alleviate air pollution, such as traffic restriction measures, air filtration towers, and water-spraying trucks, which might be prioritized over cloud seeding. (Strength: 4/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:
1. **Planned experiment**: The Indian Institute of Technology in Kanpur plans to carry out the experiment around November 20, 2023, if weather conditions are favorable. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Desperation for solutions**: Delhi's air quality is extremely poor, and the city is desperate for effective solutions, making cloud seeding a viable option. (Strength: 9/10)
3. **China's success with cloud seeding**: China has used artificial rain to tackle air pollution in the past, which might inspire Delhi to try a similar approach. (Strength: 6/10)
4. **Government support**: Delhi officials are seeking permission from federal agencies, indicating a willingness to try new approaches to alleviate air pollution. (Strength: 7/10)

Aggregated considerations:
The main factors influencing the outcome are the planned experiment, the desperation for solutions, and the government's willingness to try new approaches. While there are valid concerns about the lack of cloud cover and uncertainty in weather conditions, these factors seem to be mitigated by the planned experiment and the government's support. Considering the strength of the reasons, I would assign a moderate confidence level to the prediction.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, but it might be on the lower side given the desperation for solutions and the government's willingness to try new approaches. However, the lack of cloud cover and uncertainty in weather conditions are significant concerns that might affect the outcome. Considering these factors, the initial probability might be slightly too optimistic.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the US House of Representatives expel Representative George Santos from the House before January 1, 2024, given the high threshold of a two-thirds majority vote and the historical context of only five members being expelled in the House's history for severe misconduct? This question will resolve as Yes if Representative George Santos is officially removed from the House of Representatives before January 1, 2024.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strengths):
- Reason 1: High threshold of a two-thirds majority vote (Strength: 8/10) - Expulsion from the House requires a significant majority, which might be difficult to achieve given the current political climate.
- Reason 2: Santos has announced he will not seek re-election (Strength: 6/10) - This might reduce the urgency for his expulsion, as he will be leaving the House at the end of his term anyway.
- Reason 3: Historical context of only five expulsions (Strength: 5/10) - The rarity of expulsions might make it less likely that the House will take this drastic measure, especially for a representative who has not been accused of treason or bribery.
- Reason 4: Potential political backlash (Strength: 4/10) - Expelling Santos might be seen as a partisan move, potentially leading to a backlash against the party responsible.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strengths):
- Reason 1: Santos' fabrications and potential legal issues (Strength: 9/10) - The severity of Santos' misconduct and potential legal issues might make his expulsion more likely, especially if there is public pressure to hold him accountable.
- Reason 2: Public opinion and media scrutiny (Strength: 7/10) - The public and media might continue to pressure the House to take action against Santos, making his expulsion more likely.
- Reason 3: Potential for bipartisan support (Strength: 6/10) - If both parties can agree that Santos' actions are unacceptable, his expulsion might be more likely, even if it requires a two-thirds majority.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the likelihood of the House expelling Representative George Santos before January 1, 2024, seems to be influenced by the severity of his misconduct and the potential for public and bipartisan pressure. However, the high threshold of a two-thirds majority vote and the historical context of expulsions remain significant barriers.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of the House expelling Representative George Santos before January 1, 2024, to be around 40%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 40% might be considered not confident enough, given the severity of Santos' misconduct and the potential for public and bipartisan pressure. However, the high threshold of a two-thirds majority vote and the historical context of expulsions should not be underestimated.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the US Congress approve an additional package of foreign aid for Ukraine before January 1, 2024, considering the $77 billion in aid already provided between January 2022 and July 2023, and the recent bipartisan support shown in the past? This question resolves as Yes if credible sources report that the US Congress has approved an additional package of foreign aid for Ukraine by the end of the day on December 31, 2023, and the aid is included in a bill sent to President Biden for signature.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

* The recent bipartisan support in September 2023 was not enough to secure new foreign aid for Ukraine in the latest bill passed by Congress, indicating potential difficulties in finding consensus on this issue. (Strength: 8/10)
* The US Congress has a history of delaying or withholding foreign aid due to various reasons, including budget constraints and differing opinions on foreign policy. (Strength: 7.5/10)
* The US has already provided a significant amount of aid to Ukraine, which might lead to a decrease in public support for further assistance. (Strength: 6/10)
* The US Congress might prioritize other domestic or international issues over providing additional aid to Ukraine. (Strength: 5.5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

* The US has consistently shown bipartisan support for Ukraine, and many lawmakers have expressed their commitment to providing further assistance. (Strength: 8.5/10)
* The Biden administration has been a strong advocate for Ukraine, and the President has repeatedly emphasized the importance of continued US support. (Strength: 8/10)
* The international community, including European countries and the G7, has been pressuring the US to provide more aid to Ukraine. (Strength: 7.5/10)
* The US has a strategic interest in supporting Ukraine to counter Russian aggression and maintain regional stability. (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the balance of evidence suggests that the US Congress is likely to approve additional aid for Ukraine before January 1, 2024. While there are valid concerns about the difficulties in finding consensus and the potential for prioritizing other issues, the consistent bipartisan support and the strategic interest in supporting Ukraine weigh heavily in favor of approval.

5. Initial probability: 72

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 72 seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too high given the recent lack of progress on new aid in the September bill. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of the US Congress approving foreign aid in general), the probability might be adjusted downward to account for the challenges in securing bipartisan support.

7. Final prediction: *0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season, according to the CDC's RESP-NET data? This question will resolve as Yes if all three respiratory illnesses (COVID-19, influenza, and RSV) show a hospitalization rate of 3.0 or higher in the same week for at least one week in the 2023-24 season, as recorded by the Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET). The season will be considered to begin with the week ending on October 7, 2023, and end on the week ending June 1, 2024. The rates used will be for all ages, races, and sexes, and the data will be filtered to show the correct rates after the reporting delay period, typically 4 weeks after the week end date.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength of each reason):

* Reason 1: The 2023-24 season might not reach the same level of severity as the 2022-23 season, which was a "tripledemic" due to high incidence of COVID, flu, and RSV. (Strength: 6/10)
* Reason 2: Improved vaccination rates and treatments for COVID-19, influenza, and RSV might reduce the number of hospitalizations. (Strength: 7/10)
* Reason 3: Weather patterns, such as a colder winter, might not be as favorable for the spread of respiratory illnesses. (Strength: 4/10)
* Reason 4: The RESP-NET surveillance might not capture all hospitalizations, potentially underestimating the actual rates. (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength of each reason):

* Reason 1: The 2022-23 season was a "tripledemic," and the 2023-24 season might follow a similar pattern. (Strength: 8/10)
* Reason 2: The lack of immunity in the population to COVID-19 and influenza might lead to a higher number of hospitalizations. (Strength: 7/10)
* Reason 3: The RSV season typically starts earlier than the COVID-19 and influenza seasons, which might lead to a higher number of hospitalizations in the 2023-24 season. (Strength: 6/10)
* Reason 4: The RESP-NET surveillance might capture a significant portion of hospitalizations, providing a reliable estimate of the rates. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Based on the reasons provided, the most significant factors contributing to a "yes" answer are the potential for a "tripledemic" similar to the 2022-23 season and the lack of immunity in the population to COVID-19 and influenza. However, the reasons for a "no" answer, such as improved vaccination rates and treatments, and the potential for underestimation by RESP-NET, should not be ignored.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the answer being yes as 60.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:

Upon reviewing my initial probability, I realize that it might be too high, considering the reasons for a "no" answer. Additionally, the base rate of the event is not explicitly stated, but it is likely low, given the complexity of predicting the spread of respiratory illnesses. Considering these factors, I might reduce my initial probability.

7. Final prediction:

*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Sam Altman be announced as the CEO of OpenAI and return to the position before January 1, 2026, after being fired on November 17, 2023, due to concerns about his communication with the board and a lack of confidence in his leadership?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- Reason 1: The board of OpenAI explicitly stated they have lost confidence in Sam Altman's ability to lead the company. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: The reasons for his removal from the position involved a lack of transparency and candor, which might indicate deeper issues with his leadership style. (Strength: 7.5/10)
- Reason 3: The board's decision to remove him was a collective and deliberative process, suggesting a strong consensus against his return. (Strength: 8.5/10)
- Reason 4: The timeline for his potential return is quite long, and the likelihood of him being able to regain the board's confidence within this timeframe is uncertain. (Strength: 6/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- Reason 1: Sam Altman has expressed his love for OpenAI and the work he did there, which could indicate a strong personal connection to the company. (Strength: 4/10)
- Reason 2: The possibility of external factors, such as changes in the board's composition or new information coming to light, could lead to a reevaluation of Altman's leadership abilities. (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 3: Altman's departure from the CEO position might have been a temporary setback, and he could potentially return to the role if he addresses the issues that led to his removal. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 4: The tech industry is known for its dynamic nature, and companies often undergo significant changes in leadership and strategy. (Strength: 4/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons against his return (Reasons 1-4) seem more substantial and directly related to the situation, with an average strength of 7.6/10. The reasons for his return (Reasons 1-4) are more speculative and less directly connected to the situation, with an average strength of 4.8/10. Considering these factors, it seems more likely that Sam Altman will not return as CEO.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Sam Altman returning as CEO before January 1, 2026, at 20.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems quite low, considering the potential for external factors or changes in the company's dynamics to influence the situation. However, the reasons against his return seem more substantial and directly related to the situation.

7. Final prediction:
*0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Mira Murati be the permanent CEO of OpenAI by the end of 2024, given that she is currently the interim CEO after Sam Altman's departure on November 17, 2023, due to a loss of confidence in his ability to lead the company effectively?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: New CEO appointment process might not be swift or transparent** (Strength: 6/10): The board may take their time in finding a suitable candidate, and Mira Murati might not be the final choice. This could lead to a delay in her appointment as the permanent CEO.
- **Reason 2: Alternative candidates might emerge** (Strength: 7/10): Other potential candidates might come forward, and the board might choose one of them over Mira Murati. This could be due to their expertise, experience, or other qualities that make them a better fit for the role.
- **Reason 3: Board dynamics and power struggles** (Strength: 5/10): The board's decision to fire Sam Altman might not be a unanimous one, and there could be internal conflicts that might affect Mira Murati's chances of becoming the permanent CEO.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Mira Murati's interim appointment as CEO** (Strength: 9/10): As the current interim CEO, Mira Murati has already been given the responsibility of leading OpenAI, which suggests that the board has confidence in her abilities.
- **Reason 2: Mira Murati's experience as CTO** (Strength: 8/10): As the former CTO of OpenAI, Mira Murati has a deep understanding of the company's technology and operations, which could make her a strong candidate for the permanent CEO role.
- **Reason 3: The board's decision to fire Sam Altman** (Strength: 8/10): The fact that the board lost confidence in Sam Altman's ability to lead the company effectively might indicate that they are looking for a change in leadership style or direction, which Mira Murati might be able to provide.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that Mira Murati has a strong case for becoming the permanent CEO of OpenAI. Her interim appointment and experience as CTO are significant advantages, and the board's decision to fire Sam Altman suggests that they are looking for a new direction. However, there are some potential challenges, such as the possibility of alternative candidates emerging or internal conflicts within the board.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Mira Murati becoming the permanent CEO of OpenAI by the end of 2024 to be around 70%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 70% seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident. There are still many uncertainties involved in the process, and the board's decision-making process might be influenced by various factors that are not yet known. Additionally, the base rate of CEOs being replaced or changed in a company is relatively high, which might affect the overall probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Ilya Sutskever be appointed as the permanent CEO of OpenAI by March 31, 2024, following Mira Murati's tenure as interim CEO, considering the board's decision to remove Sam Altman due to a lack of candor in communication?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Current Interim CEO (Strength: 6/10)**: Mira Murati is already serving as the interim CEO, which might suggest that she could be a strong candidate for the permanent position. This might reduce the likelihood of Ilya Sutskever becoming the next CEO.
- **Reason 2: Lack of Public Information (Strength: 4/10)**: There is limited public information available about the decision-making process or potential candidates for the permanent CEO position. This lack of transparency makes it challenging to assess the likelihood of Ilya Sutskever's appointment.
- **Reason 3: Alternative Candidates (Strength: 7/10)**: The board might consider other candidates, potentially internal or external, for the CEO position. The absence of information about these candidates makes it difficult to assess their relative likelihood compared to Ilya Sutskever.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Ilya Sutskever's Role in OpenAI (Strength: 8/10)**: As a former CTO and key figure in the development of OpenAI's technology, Ilya Sutskever has significant expertise and knowledge of the company's operations. This might make him a strong candidate for the CEO position.
- **Reason 2: No Official Statement Against Ilya Sutskever (Strength: 5/10)**: There is no public information suggesting that Ilya Sutskever is not a candidate or that the board has lost confidence in him. This lack of negative information might imply that he is still in the running for the position.
- **Reason 3: OpenAI's Need for Stability (Strength: 9/10)**: After the removal of Sam Altman, OpenAI needs a stable and experienced leader to guide the company through this transition period. Ilya Sutskever's technical expertise and knowledge of the company's inner workings might make him an attractive candidate for this role.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the likelihood of Ilya Sutskever becoming the next CEO seems to be influenced by his role in OpenAI and the need for stability. However, the lack of public information and the possibility of alternative candidates might reduce the likelihood.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Ilya Sutskever becoming the next CEO as 60.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems relatively high, considering the lack of information about the decision-making process and potential candidates. This might be due to the strength of Ilya Sutskever's connection to OpenAI and the need for stability. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of CEO changes in similar companies and the potential for unexpected events that might affect the outcome.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Sam Altman be appointed as the non-interim CEO of OpenAI by the time the question closes on March 31, 2024, given that he was fired as CEO on November 17, 2023, and Mira Murati is currently the interim CEO?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Sam Altman's removal as CEO was due to a lack of trust from the board.** (Strength: 8/10) The fact that the board stated they no longer have confidence in Altman's ability to lead OpenAI suggests a significant rift, making it less likely he would be reinstated.
- **Reason 2: Mira Murati's appointment as interim CEO indicates a clear direction away from Altman.** (Strength: 6/10) The fact that the board chose Murati as the interim CEO implies they have a plan to move forward without Altman, reducing the likelihood of his return.
- **Reason 3: The OpenAI board's decision was a significant departure from the status quo.** (Strength: 5/10) The board's decision to fire Altman was a drastic move, suggesting they are looking for a new direction and possibly a new leader, making it less likely Altman would be reinstated.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Sam Altman's past performance and achievements at OpenAI.** (Strength: 4/10) Altman was a key figure in the development of OpenAI, and his departure might be seen as a loss of talent and expertise, potentially leading to his reinstatement.
- **Reason 2: The board's decision might be a result of internal politics or external pressures.** (Strength: 3/10) It's possible that the board's decision was influenced by factors outside of Altman's performance, such as internal politics or external pressures, which could lead to his reinstatement.
- **Reason 3: The uncertainty surrounding the future of OpenAI.** (Strength: 2/10) The tech industry is known for its rapid changes and uncertainties, and OpenAI's future direction might be influenced by various factors, including the departure of key personnel like Altman.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that the factors pointing towards a "no" are stronger than those pointing towards a "yes." The fact that the board has lost confidence in Altman's leadership and has appointed an interim CEO suggests a clear direction away from him. However, the reasons for his departure might be complex, and his past achievements and the uncertainty surrounding OpenAI's future could potentially lead to his reinstatement.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of Sam Altman being the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI as 20.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
My initial probability of 20 seems relatively low, considering the potential for external pressures or internal politics influencing the board's decision. However, the board's clear statement of losing confidence in Altman's leadership and the appointment of an interim CEO suggest a strong direction away from him.

7. Final prediction:
*0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Eric Schmidt be appointed as the permanent or next non-interim CEO of OpenAI following the departure of Sam Altman on November 17, 2023, given that Mira Murati has been appointed as the interim CEO, and the question resolves as Yes for Eric Schmidt and No for all others, including Mira Murati and Sam Altman? The question will be resolved on or before March 31, 2024.

2. Reasons why the answer might be No:
- Reason 1: Mira Murati is already the interim CEO, and it's common for interim CEOs to remain in the position until a permanent replacement is found or until the situation stabilizes. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: OpenAI might prefer to choose an internal candidate for the permanent CEO position, given the sensitive nature of the situation. (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 3: The board might want to conduct a thorough search for a new CEO, considering the significant challenges OpenAI is facing, and Eric Schmidt might not be their top choice. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 4: Eric Schmidt's background and experience might not align with the specific needs and goals of OpenAI at this time. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be Yes:
- Reason 1: Eric Schmidt has a strong background in technology and leadership, which could be beneficial for OpenAI. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: His experience as the CEO of Google could provide valuable insights for OpenAI, given their AI focus. (Strength: 9/10)
- Reason 3: Eric Schmidt has been involved in various tech-related ventures and initiatives, which could make him a strong candidate for the OpenAI CEO position. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the board might be inclined to choose an external candidate with significant experience and expertise in the tech industry. Eric Schmidt's background and experience make him a strong candidate for the position. However, the board's decision will also depend on various factors, including their confidence in his ability to lead OpenAI and his alignment with the company's goals.

5. Initial probability:
Given the reasons provided, I would initially estimate the probability of Eric Schmidt being the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI as 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability seems relatively high, considering that Mira Murati is already the interim CEO and there is no public information about Eric Schmidt's involvement with OpenAI. I should consider the base rate of the event, which is unknown, and the fact that the question resolves as Yes for Eric Schmidt specifically. This might make the event more likely, but I should also consider the strength of the reasons against the event.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the aggregated considerations and the evaluation of the initial probability, I would adjust my final prediction to *0.55*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Satya Nadella be appointed as the permanent CEO of OpenAI by the board of directors before or on March 31, 2024, following the removal of Sam Altman as the CEO on November 17, 2023, and the appointment of Mira Murati as the interim CEO?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
   - Reason 1: Satya Nadella is the CEO of Microsoft, a different company. He might not be interested in taking on the role at OpenAI. (Strength: 4/10)
   - Reason 2: The OpenAI board might be looking for a candidate with more direct experience in AI or tech, and Satya Nadella's background in enterprise software might not be a good fit. (Strength: 6/10)
   - Reason 3: Satya Nadella has a strong track record as the CEO of Microsoft, and the board might not want to disrupt the leadership of a successful company like Microsoft. (Strength: 8/10)
   - Reason 4: OpenAI might be looking for a candidate with a more direct connection to the AI industry, and Satya Nadella's background in enterprise software might not be a good fit. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
   - Reason 1: Satya Nadella has a strong track record of leadership and might be a good fit for the CEO role at OpenAI. (Strength: 8/10)
   - Reason 2: Microsoft and OpenAI have a partnership, and Satya Nadella might be a good choice to lead OpenAI given the partnership between the two companies. (Strength: 7/10)
   - Reason 3: Satya Nadella has a strong background in technology and innovation, which might be valuable for a company like OpenAI that is pushing the boundaries of AI research. (Strength: 9/10)
   - Reason 4: The OpenAI board might be looking for a candidate with a strong track record of leadership and Satya Nadella fits that description. (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons provided, the strengths of the reasons for a "yes" answer (8.2/10) outweigh the strengths of the reasons for a "no" answer (5.6/10). This suggests that Satya Nadella might be a strong candidate for the CEO role at OpenAI.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Satya Nadella being the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI as 60.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable given the strengths of the reasons for a "yes" answer and the lack of strong reasons for a "no" answer. However, it is possible that the board might be considering other candidates or factors that are not currently known. The base rate of Satya Nadella being appointed as the CEO of OpenAI is likely to be very low, given that he is the CEO of Microsoft and has no prior experience with OpenAI.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Andrej Karpathy be appointed as the permanent Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of OpenAI before or on March 31, 2024, following the departure of Sam Altman as CEO, given that Mira Murati was appointed as the interim CEO on November 17, 2023, due to concerns over Altman's communication with the board?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The board's decision to replace Altman with an interim CEO suggests they are prioritizing stability and continuity over making a permanent appointment immediately (Strength: 4).
- OpenAI has not publicly announced any plans or intentions to appoint Andrej Karpathy as the permanent CEO (Strength: 2).
- The departure of Altman may have created uncertainty within the company, which could make it difficult for the board to make a decision on a permanent CEO (Strength: 3).
- The board may have other candidates in mind for the permanent CEO position, and Karpathy may not be their top choice (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- Karpathy has been a key figure in OpenAI's development, serving as the company's head of AI research and a director of the company (Strength: 4).
- His experience and expertise in AI research could make him a strong candidate for the CEO position (Strength: 4).
- The board may want to maintain continuity and familiarity within the company, and Karpathy's existing role and experience make him a natural fit (Strength: 3).
- The board may have already considered Karpathy as a potential candidate for the permanent CEO position before Altman's departure (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against Karpathy becoming the next CEO, it seems that the board's decision to appoint an interim CEO and the lack of public announcements about Karpathy's candidacy are significant factors working against his appointment. However, Karpathy's experience and expertise in AI research are substantial advantages that could make him a strong candidate.

5. Initial probability: 30

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
The initial probability of 30 seems relatively low, given the lack of public information about Karpathy's candidacy. However, it is essential to consider the base rate of CEOs being appointed from within the company, which might be higher than the general population. Additionally, the board's decision-making process may be more complex and influenced by various factors not publicly disclosed.

7. Final prediction: *0.40*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Emmett Shear be appointed as the permanent Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of OpenAI, replacing Mira Murati, who is currently serving as the interim CEO, following the departure of Sam Altman, who was fired on November 17, 2023, due to concerns about his communication with the board of directors?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reason 1: Mira Murati, the current interim CEO, might be considered for the permanent position, given her experience as the former CTO of OpenAI. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: The board of directors might seek an external candidate with a different skill set or background, rather than promoting an existing employee. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: Emmett Shear's past experience as the CEO of Twitch and his background in the gaming industry might not align with the needs and goals of OpenAI. (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 4: OpenAI's board of directors might have a different vision for the company's future and might not see Emmett Shear as the best fit. (Strength: 8/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Reason 1: Emmett Shear has experience as a CEO, having led Twitch from 2011 to 2023, which could be beneficial for OpenAI's leadership. (Strength: 9/10)
- Reason 2: Shear's background in the gaming industry could be an asset for OpenAI, given the overlap between AI and gaming. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 3: Emmett Shear might be seen as a stabilizing force after the departure of Sam Altman, bringing a sense of continuity and calm to the company. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 4: The board of directors might have already identified Emmett Shear as their preferred candidate and might be moving to appoint him as the permanent CEO. (Strength: 9/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
- The reasons in favor of Emmett Shear being appointed as the permanent CEO are stronger and more numerous than the reasons against. The board of directors' decision to fire Sam Altman and appoint Mira Murati as interim CEO suggests they are actively seeking a new leader, and Emmett Shear's experience and background make him a strong candidate.

5. Initial probability: 80

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
- The initial probability of 80 seems reasonable, given the strength of the reasons in favor of Emmett Shear being appointed as the permanent CEO. However, it might be slightly too confident, considering the uncertainty surrounding the board of directors' decision-making process.
- Base rate: There is no specific base rate for this event, as it is a unique situation. However, the fact that the board of directors has already made a significant change by firing Sam Altman and appointing Mira Murati as interim CEO suggests that they are actively seeking a new leader, which might increase the likelihood of Emmett Shear being appointed.

7. Final prediction: *0.7*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for both ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023, considering the company's past performance, the recent leadership change, and potential future disruptions? The question resolves Yes if, on January 1, 2024, OpenAI's status page for both ChatGPT and the API reports ≥ 99% uptime for the month of December 2023. It resolves No otherwise, including in cases where the status page ceases to exist or if OpenAI discontinues either ChatGPT or the API and the status page is not updated to reflect this.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Leadership change and potential disruption** (Strength: 8/10): The ouster of CEO Sam Altman may lead to a period of instability and disruption within the company, which could negatively impact the reliability of ChatGPT and the API. (Reasoning: Leadership changes can cause uncertainty and potentially disrupt business operations.)
- **Reason 2: Increased scrutiny and potential security concerns** (Strength: 6/10): The recent leadership change may attract increased scrutiny from regulators and the public, potentially leading to security concerns and increased maintenance, which could impact uptime. (Reasoning: Increased scrutiny can lead to additional security measures, which may affect system performance.)
- **Reason 3: OpenAI's financial situation** (Strength: 5/10): The company's financial situation may be uncertain following the leadership change, potentially leading to cost-cutting measures that could impact the reliability of their services. (Reasoning: Financial constraints can lead to reduced investment in maintenance and infrastructure.)
- **Reason 4: Technical issues and maintenance** (Strength: 4/10): ChatGPT and the API are complex systems, and technical issues can arise unexpectedly, potentially impacting uptime. (Reasoning: Technical issues can occur due to various factors, including software bugs or hardware failures.)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: OpenAI's past performance** (Strength: 9/10): OpenAI has consistently reported high uptime for ChatGPT, with the exception of its launch month. (Reasoning: Historical data suggests a high level of reliability.)
- **Reason 2: OpenAI's resources and infrastructure** (Strength: 8/10): OpenAI has the resources and infrastructure to maintain high uptime, given their significant investment in technology and talent. (Reasoning: OpenAI has the means to invest in maintaining high uptime.)
- **Reason 3: Limited impact of leadership change on infrastructure** (Strength: 7/10): The leadership change may not directly impact the underlying infrastructure and maintenance of ChatGPT and the API. (Reasoning: Leadership changes may not necessarily affect the technical aspects of the service.)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, the balance of evidence suggests that OpenAI's past performance and resources are strong indicators of high uptime. However, the leadership change and potential disruption, increased scrutiny, and technical issues may contribute to a slightly lower probability of achieving ≥99% uptime. The strength of the reasons for a yes answer outweighs those for a no answer, but the uncertainty surrounding the leadership change and potential disruptions introduces some doubt.

5. Initial probability: 65

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 65 may be too conservative, given OpenAI's past performance and resources. However, the recent leadership change and potential disruptions introduce some uncertainty, making it difficult to assign a higher probability. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of achieving ≥99% uptime in general), it's likely that OpenAI will report high uptime, but the recent events may affect their ability to meet the specific threshold.

7. Final prediction: *0.72*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.72
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Israel and Hamas conduct a prisoner exchange involving ≥20 Israelis and ≥20 Palestinians by December 31, 2023, given that:
- Hamas has stated it captured 200 hostages and that 50 more are held by other groups in Gaza, with 200 Israelis being held in Gaza according to public broadcaster Kan.
- Approximately 57 hostages have been reported to have died in Israeli strikes on Gaza as of November 2, 2023.
- Intense bombing persists in the region.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- **Reason 1: Ongoing conflict and lack of a clear path to a negotiated agreement** (Strength: 4): The intense bombing and ongoing conflict might make it challenging for Israel and Hamas to engage in a prisoner exchange, especially if neither side is willing to make concessions.
- **Reason 2: Uncertainty about the number of hostages and their status** (Strength: 3): The reported numbers of hostages and deaths might be inaccurate or changing, which could hinder negotiations and a potential prisoner exchange.
- **Reason 3: Potential for more violence and instability** (Strength: 4): The situation in Gaza is volatile, and further violence could escalate tensions and make a prisoner exchange less likely.
- **Reason 4: Differences in Israeli and Hamas demands and goals** (Strength: 4): The two parties might have different expectations for a prisoner exchange, which could lead to a breakdown in negotiations.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- **Reason 1: Historical precedent for prisoner exchanges** (Strength: 4): Israel and Hamas have engaged in prisoner exchanges in the past, suggesting that it's a feasible option.
- **Reason 2: Potential benefits for both sides** (Strength: 5): A prisoner exchange could benefit both parties by reducing the number of hostages and potentially easing tensions, which could lead to a more stable situation.
- **Reason 3: International pressure and diplomatic efforts** (Strength: 3): The international community might apply pressure on both sides to engage in a prisoner exchange, and diplomatic efforts could facilitate negotiations.
- **Reason 4: Humanitarian concerns** (Strength: 5): The deaths and suffering of hostages and civilians in Gaza could lead to increased pressure on both sides to find a solution, including a prisoner exchange.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I would rate the overall strength of the reasons for a "yes" answer as 3.6 (average of 4.25) and the overall strength of the reasons for a "no" answer as 3.8 (average of 4.1). This suggests that the situation is complex, with both sides having valid reasons for and against a prisoner exchange.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of a prisoner exchange involving ≥20 Israelis and ≥20 Palestinians by December 31, 2023, as 40.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems reasonable given the complex situation and the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of prisoner exchanges between Israel and Hamas, which might be relatively low due to their history of conflict. This could lead to a more conservative estimate.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will at least three of the following individuals leave the OpenAI Board of Directors before December 1, 2023: Ilya Sutskever, Adam D'Angelo, Helen Toner, and Tasha McCauley? This question resolves Yes if at least three of these individuals are no longer on the board by the specified deadline.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The current board members may resist leaving, and their positions may be secure. (Strength: 4)
- The employees' ultimatum may not be effective in compelling the board members to resign. (Strength: 3)
- The board members may have strong connections or leverage that keeps them in their positions. (Strength: 2)
- The company's leadership structure may not be easily altered. (Strength: 1)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The employees' collective threat to quit may be a powerful motivator for the board members to leave. (Strength: 5)
- The employees' letter, signed by key figures like Ilya Sutskever, may indicate a strong opposition to the current board. (Strength: 4)
- The board members may be isolated and unable to maintain their positions against the will of the employees. (Strength: 3)
- The pressure from employees and potential loss of talent may force the board to reconsider their roles. (Strength: 2)
- The current situation may be a catalyst for a more significant change in the company's leadership structure. (Strength: 1)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the collective strength of the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" outcome, the employees' ultimatum and the potential loss of talent may be a significant motivator for the board members to leave. However, the board members' resistance and potential connections may also play a role in their decision.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of at least three board members leaving before December 1, 2023, to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, but it may be slightly too confident given the uncertainty surrounding the situation. The base rate of board members leaving due to employee ultimatums is not well-established, and there may be other factors at play that are not considered in this analysis.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the number of employees at OpenAI be 100 or fewer before January 1, 2024, given the recent announcement of CEO Sam Altman's departure, the potential resignation of employees, and the formation of a new Microsoft subsidiary led by Altman and Greg Brockman, as reported by credible sources as of November 20, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* OpenAI's employees may remain loyal to the company despite the recent leadership changes and potential dissatisfaction with the board (strength: 2). 
* The company may find ways to retain key employees or attract new talent to maintain its current workforce (strength: 2).
* The economic benefits of working at OpenAI, such as competitive salaries and opportunities for growth, may outweigh the concerns about the company's leadership (strength: 3).
* The formation of a new Microsoft subsidiary may not be a direct competitor to OpenAI, and employees may not see it as a viable alternative (strength: 2).
* OpenAI's current workforce may be committed to seeing the company through a transition period and may not choose to leave en masse (strength: 3).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* The letter signed by over 700 employees expressing their dissatisfaction with the current leadership and potential resignation may lead to a significant number of employees leaving the company (strength: 5).
* The formation of a new Microsoft subsidiary led by Altman and Brockman may be seen as a more attractive option for employees, potentially leading to a mass exodus from OpenAI (strength: 4).
* The uncertainty and instability caused by the recent leadership changes may lead to a decline in employee morale and productivity, potentially resulting in employees choosing to leave (strength: 4).
* The lack of confidence in the current board's ability to lead the company may lead to a brain drain, as employees may choose to leave before the company's direction becomes clearer (strength: 4).
* The potential for a power struggle within the company may lead to a disruption in operations, potentially causing employees to leave (strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that the potential for a significant number of employees to leave OpenAI is high, given the letter signed by over 700 employees and the formation of a new Microsoft subsidiary. However, the company may still find ways to retain key employees or attract new talent, and some employees may remain loyal to the company. The strength of the reasons for an "yes" answer outweighs the strength of the reasons for a "no" answer, suggesting that the probability of OpenAI having fewer than 100 employees before January 1, 2024, is higher.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the uncertainty and instability caused by the recent leadership changes. However, it may be on the lower end, as the strength of the reasons for an "yes" answer is higher. Considering the base rate of employees leaving companies due to leadership changes, it's not uncommon for a significant number of employees to leave in such situations. This may suggest that the actual probability is higher than 60.

7. Final prediction: *0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will OpenAI have fewer than or equal to 300 employees before January 1, 2024, as a result of the current crisis, including resignations and potential departures of employees who signed a letter expressing their dissatisfaction with the current board and leadership changes, or any other significant changes in employment levels that occur before the specified date?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

* Many employees may choose not to leave or may stay with the company despite their dissatisfaction with the current leadership, as they may still be committed to the company's mission and values. (Strength: 4)
* The company may implement changes to address the concerns of the employees, such as appointing new board members or reinstating Sam Altman, which could alleviate the dissatisfaction and prevent further departures. (Strength: 3)
* OpenAI may offer retention packages or other incentives to keep key employees from leaving, which could mitigate the impact of the crisis on the company's headcount. (Strength: 2)
* The company may experience a natural fluctuation in employment levels due to normal business operations, such as employees leaving for other job opportunities or retiring, which could offset the impact of the current crisis. (Strength: 1)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

* The letter signed by over 700 employees indicates a significant level of dissatisfaction and a willingness to leave the company, which could lead to a substantial number of departures. (Strength: 5)
* The crisis has already led to the resignation of key employees, including President Greg Brockman, which could create a domino effect and lead to further departures. (Strength: 4)
* The departure of Sam Altman, the former CEO, may lead to a loss of morale and confidence among employees, making it more likely that they will leave the company. (Strength: 3)
* The uncertainty and instability created by the crisis may lead to a brain drain, as employees may choose to leave the company to seek more stable and secure opportunities. (Strength: 2)
* The company's reputation may suffer as a result of the crisis, making it more difficult to attract and retain top talent, which could lead to a decline in employment levels. (Strength: 1)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for and against, it seems that the crisis has created a significant risk of employee departures, particularly given the number of employees who signed the letter expressing their dissatisfaction. However, there are also potential mitigating factors, such as the company's ability to implement changes to address employee concerns or offer retention packages to keep key employees. The strength of the reasons for and against suggests that the answer is more likely to be yes, but the outcome is still uncertain.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of OpenAI having fewer than or equal to 300 employees before January 1, 2024, as 60%.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:

The initial probability of 60% may be considered relatively confident, but it's essential to consider the base rate of employee departures in the tech industry and the potential for unexpected events that could impact the outcome. A more conservative approach might be to consider a lower probability, such as 40-50%, to account for the uncertainty and potential mitigating factors.

7. Final prediction:

*0.50*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.5
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the number of employees at OpenAI be less than or equal to 600 before January 1, 2024, considering credible sources' reports of employee numbers as of November 20, 2023, and accounting for potential changes in employment due to employee resignations, new hires, restructuring, or other factors that may affect the company's overall employee count?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-10, where 10 is the strongest):

* Many employees have already expressed their commitment to staying with OpenAI, despite the leadership changes and the letter signed by over 700 employees. This suggests that a significant portion of the staff may remain loyal to the company. (Strength: 6)
* OpenAI's current employees may be more motivated to stay and help the company navigate the current crisis, potentially leading to increased retention rates. (Strength: 5)
* The company may implement measures to retain employees, such as offering bonuses, promotions, or other incentives, which could help maintain the current employee count. (Strength: 4)
* The threat of a mass resignation may be an empty one, and employees may not actually leave the company. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-10, where 10 is the strongest):

* The letter signed by over 700 employees suggests a significant portion of the staff is dissatisfied with the current leadership and may choose to leave. (Strength: 9)
* The loss of key employees, such as Greg Brockman, may lead to a domino effect, causing other employees to resign as well. (Strength: 8)
* The uncertainty and instability caused by the leadership change and employee dissatisfaction may lead to a brain drain, as employees seek more stable and secure work environments. (Strength: 7)
* The company may struggle to replace departing employees, particularly in a competitive job market, leading to a decline in the overall employee count. (Strength: 6)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, the most significant factors pointing towards a "yes" answer are the letter signed by over 700 employees and the loss of key employees like Greg Brockman. However, the reasons pointing towards a "no" answer, such as employee loyalty and potential retention measures, are still significant. Overall, I believe the balance of evidence leans towards a decline in employee numbers, but the outcome is uncertain.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

My initial probability of 60 may be too confident, as the outcome is uncertain and influenced by various factors. I should consider the base rate of employee turnover in the tech industry, which is typically high. Additionally, the company's ability to retain employees and adapt to the current crisis may be underestimated. A more conservative approach would be to consider a lower probability, around 40-50.

7. Final prediction:

*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause, announced on November 22, 2023, be extended beyond its initial four-day duration, with credible sources reporting that the extension has officially commenced before the question resolution date of November 30, 2023?

Reasons why the answer might be No (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. Historical precedent: Previous humanitarian pauses between Israel and Hamas have been short-lived, often lasting only a few days. (Strength: 3)
2. Ongoing tensions: The conflict between Israel and Hamas is complex and deeply ingrained, making it challenging to sustain a ceasefire. (Strength: 4)
3. Lack of a comprehensive agreement: The current agreement focuses on a humanitarian pause and prisoner exchange, but does not address the underlying issues driving the conflict. (Strength: 4)
4. External factors: The involvement of external actors like the United States and Egypt may not be sufficient to sustain a prolonged ceasefire. (Strength: 3)
5. Hamas's past behavior: Hamas has a history of violating agreements and launching attacks despite ceasefires. (Strength: 5)

Reasons why the answer might be Yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. International pressure: The international community, particularly the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, may exert pressure on both parties to extend the pause. (Strength: 4)
2. Humanitarian needs: The agreement aims to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, which may create a sense of urgency to extend the pause. (Strength: 3)
3. Potential for a broader agreement: The current pause could be a stepping stone for a more comprehensive agreement, increasing the likelihood of an extension. (Strength: 4)
4. Israeli interests: Extending the pause might be in Israel's interest, as it would allow for a reduction in violence and potentially improve its international image. (Strength: 3)
5. Qatari mediation: Qatar's involvement as a mediator could help facilitate an extension, given its reputation for facilitating diplomatic efforts in the region. (Strength: 4)

Aggregate considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "Yes" and "No" answer, I assess the situation as follows:

* The historical precedent and Hamas's past behavior suggest that an extension is less likely.
* However, the involvement of external actors, international pressure, and the potential for a broader agreement increase the likelihood of an extension.
* The humanitarian needs and Israeli interests also contribute to the possibility of an extension.
* The strength of the reasons for a "Yes" answer (average strength: 3.8) is slightly higher than the strength of the reasons for a "No" answer (average strength: 3.6).

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation:
My initial probability of 60 may be overly optimistic, given the complex and volatile nature of the conflict. The base rate of humanitarian pauses being extended is not well-established, and the situation is highly dependent on various factors, including the actions of the parties involved and external actors.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a novel pathogen, as defined by a pathogen that has not previously been found to infect humans and is not an immediate descendent of pathogens currently causing human disease, be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?

Given the context, a novel pathogen is a new pathogen that has not been previously identified in humans and is not a variant of an existing pathogen causing human disease. This includes pathogens resulting from antigenic shift, which is a significant change in a flu A virus, but excludes minor variations of existing pathogens.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- The pneumonia cases may be caused by a known pathogen that has not been well-documented in the region, but still an existing one (strength: 60%).
- The Chinese government may be slow to report new information or downplay the severity of the outbreak, making it harder to identify a novel pathogen (strength: 40%).
- The symptoms described (high fever and pulmonary nodules) are not uncommon for various respiratory infections, making it difficult to pinpoint a novel pathogen (strength: 80%).
- The medical community and researchers may be focused on more established causes of pneumonia, such as influenza, mycoplasma, or bronchopneumonia, and may not be actively searching for a novel pathogen (strength: 30%).
- The lack of specific information on the pathogen's genetic makeup or transmission dynamics makes it challenging to identify a novel pathogen (strength: 90%).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- The rapid spread of the disease and the severity of the symptoms suggest a highly contagious and virulent pathogen, which could be a novel one (strength: 70%).
- The fact that children and teachers are getting infected suggests a highly contagious pathogen, which could be a novel one (strength: 60%).
- The fact that the Chinese government has not yet identified the cause of the outbreak suggests that it may be a novel pathogen (strength: 40%).
- The description of the symptoms, such as high fever and pulmonary nodules, could be indicative of a novel pathogen (strength: 50%).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the likelihood of a novel pathogen being identified as responsible for the pneumonia in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023, is influenced by the severity and rapid spread of the disease, the lack of information on the pathogen's genetic makeup, and the fact that the Chinese government has not yet identified the cause of the outbreak. However, the symptoms described are not uncommon for various respiratory infections, and the medical community may be focused on more established causes of pneumonia.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I would estimate the initial probability to be 30.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 30 may be too low, given the severity and rapid spread of the disease. The lack of information on the pathogen's genetic makeup and the fact that the Chinese government has not yet identified the cause of the outbreak suggest that there may be a higher likelihood of a novel pathogen. However, the symptoms described are not uncommon for various respiratory infections, which may suggest that the probability is not as high as 50 or 60. Considering the base rate of novel pathogens being identified, which is relatively low, the initial probability of 30 may be a reasonable estimate.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the Government of Venezuela send Venezuelan ground troops into Guyanese territory, without the permission of the currently recognized Government of Guyana and without UN assent, between October 10, 2023, and January 1, 2024, as announced or acknowledged by the Government of Venezuela or at least two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council, with credible sources confirming the number of troops entering exceeds 100, and these events take place at least in part between the launch of this question and January 1, 2024, as defined by the border between the two countries as of October 10, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1-10, where 1 is a weak reason and 10 is a strong reason):

- The international community, including the UN and the US, has been actively engaging with the parties involved, which may discourage Venezuela from taking aggressive action. (Strength: 6)
- The economic costs of a war would be significant for Venezuela, which may outweigh any potential benefits from asserting its claims. (Strength: 7)
- The US has been increasing its presence in the region, which could serve as a deterrent to Venezuela. (Strength: 5)
- Guyana has been strengthening its military in anticipation of potential threats, which could make an invasion more difficult for Venezuela. (Strength: 4)
- The international community has a strong interest in maintaining stability in the region and may intervene if Venezuela were to invade. (Strength: 8)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1-10, where 1 is a weak reason and 10 is a strong reason):

- Venezuela's recent actions suggest a willingness to take aggressive steps to assert its claims. (Strength: 9)
- The Venezuelan government has been vocal about its claims to Guyanese territory and has been seeking international support for its position. (Strength: 8)
- The economic situation in Venezuela is dire, and the government may see an invasion as a way to distract from domestic issues or gain international sympathy. (Strength: 6)
- The Venezuelan military has been modernizing and increasing its capabilities, which could make an invasion more feasible. (Strength: 7)
- The current government of Venezuela has a history of authoritarian behavior and may be willing to take risks to maintain power. (Strength: 9)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, it seems that the balance of evidence points towards a higher likelihood of Venezuela taking aggressive action. The Venezuelan government's recent behavior, its vocal claims to Guyanese territory, and its military modernization efforts all suggest a willingness to take risks. However, the international community's engagement, the economic costs of a war, and Guyana's military preparations all serve as deterrents.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Venezuela invading Guyana before January 1, 2024, as 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

The initial probability of 60 may be overly confident, given the complexity of the situation and the many factors at play. The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a country invading its neighbor) is likely low, and the international community's engagement and economic costs may serve as significant deterrents. However, the Venezuelan government's behavior and military modernization efforts suggest a higher likelihood of aggression.

7. Final prediction:

*0.40*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 out of the 9 largest European cities (Istanbul, Moscow, London, Saint Petersburg, Berlin, Madrid, Rome, Bucharest, Paris) in 2023? A white Christmas is defined as snowfall on either December 24th or 25th. To determine this, we will consult METAR historic data from the corresponding airports (LTFM, UUEE, EGLL, ULLI, EDDB, LEMD, LIRF, LROP, LFPG) for the period from 00:00 UTC on December 24th to 23:00 UTC on December 25th. We will consider any mention of snow (SN), snow grains (SG), snow pellets (SP or GS), or snow showers (SW) as indicative of a white Christmas. If at least 4 out of the 9 cities experience a white Christmas, the answer is Yes; otherwise, it is No. If we are unable to find reliable METAR data for any of the airports, the answer will be Ambiguous.

Reasons why the answer might be No (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. Unusually mild winter: Some winters in Europe can be unusually mild, leading to little to no snowfall in many cities. (Strength: 3)
2. Climate change: Rising global temperatures might lead to reduced snowfall in some European cities. (Strength: 4)
3. Unfavorable weather patterns: Certain weather patterns, such as high-pressure systems or warm air masses, can prevent snowfall in some areas. (Strength: 3)
4. Lack of snow in previous years: Some European cities have experienced little to no snow in recent years, which might be a trend. (Strength: 2)
5. Limited snowfall in surrounding areas: If surrounding areas do not experience significant snowfall, it might be less likely for the cities in question to receive snow. (Strength: 2)

Reasons why the answer might be Yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. Historical snowfall in European cities: Many European cities experience snowfall during the winter months, including December. (Strength: 4)
2. Cold air masses from the north: Cold air masses from the Arctic can bring snow to European cities, especially those in the north. (Strength: 5)
3. Snowfall in nearby mountains: Mountains surrounding some European cities can create orographic lift, leading to snowfall in the surrounding areas. (Strength: 4)
4. Weather patterns favoring snow: Certain weather patterns, such as low-pressure systems or cold fronts, can bring snow to European cities. (Strength: 4)
5. Recent snowfall in surrounding areas: If surrounding areas have experienced recent snowfall, it might be more likely for the cities in question to receive snow. (Strength: 3)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, I believe that the answer might be Yes, as many European cities experience snowfall during the winter months, and cold air masses from the north can bring snow to the region. However, the possibility of an unusually mild winter or unfavorable weather patterns could prevent snowfall in some cities. I will need to consider the specific weather patterns and conditions leading up to December 24th and 25th to make a more informed decision.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of the initial probability:

My initial probability of 60 might be too low, as it does not fully account for the historical snowfall in European cities during the winter months. Additionally, the base rate of snowfall in European cities is relatively high, which should be taken into account. I will adjust my probability accordingly.

Final prediction: *0.70*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a majority of voters in Venezuela's December 3, 2023, referendum approve the creation of the Guayana Esequiba state, incorporating the disputed territory into Venezuelan territory, as proposed in the fifth question of the referendum, which includes granting citizenship and Venezuelan identity cards to the current and future population of the territory, in accordance with the Geneva Agreement and international law? This question is contingent on the referendum taking place on December 3, 2023, and the results being reported by Venezuela.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1 to 10 for strength):
- International pressure from Guyana and the international community might sway some voters to reject the proposal (Strength: 6)
- The disputed territory has been administered by Guyana for decades, and some Venezuelans might be hesitant to alter the status quo (Strength: 4)
- The economic costs of incorporating the territory might be significant, and some voters might be concerned about the financial implications (Strength: 3)
- The Venezuelan economy is struggling, and some voters might prioritize economic stability over territorial expansion (Strength: 5)
- The referendum's legitimacy might be questioned due to Guyana's opposition and the lack of international recognition (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1 to 10 for strength):
- Venezuela has a long-standing claim to the territory, and many Venezuelans might see it as a matter of national pride and sovereignty (Strength: 8)
- The Geneva Agreement provides a framework for resolving the dispute, and some voters might see it as a way to resolve the issue peacefully (Strength: 7)
- The creation of the Guayana Esequiba state could provide economic benefits and opportunities for the region (Strength: 5)
- The Venezuelan government's strong stance on the issue might mobilize nationalist sentiment in favor of the proposal (Strength: 6)
- The referendum is a way for the Venezuelan government to demonstrate its commitment to reclaiming the territory (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for a "yes" and "no" outcome, I believe that the strong nationalist sentiment and the long-standing Venezuelan claim to the territory will likely outweigh the concerns about international pressure, economic costs, and the legitimacy of the referendum. However, the uncertainty surrounding the referendum's legitimacy and the potential for voter hesitation due to the disputed territory's long administration by Guyana might temper the outcome.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I estimate the probability of a majority of voters approving the creation of the Guayana Esequiba state at 65%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 65% might be considered moderately confident, but it does not account for the potential for last-minute changes in voter sentiment or the impact of external factors, such as international pressure or economic developments, on the outcome. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a referendum taking place and being legitimate) is not explicitly considered in the initial probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.625*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.625
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will any of the seven major Republican candidates for president, including Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie, Doug Burgum, and Asa Hutchinson, drop out of the 2024 presidential race before the start of the New Year (January 1, 2024), given that the Iowa caucus is scheduled for January 15, 2024, and Donald Trump has maintained a stable lead in the polls, with a roughly 60% share as of November 29, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

* Reason 1: Donald Trump's stable lead in the polls (Strength: 8/10) - Trump's consistent polling numbers might make it difficult for other candidates to catch up, reducing the likelihood of them dropping out.
* Reason 2: Financial resources and support - Candidates with strong financial backing and a loyal supporter base are more likely to stay in the race (Strength: 6/10).
* Reason 3: Limited alternative options - If the remaining candidates are not seen as viable alternatives, they might choose to stay in the race to maintain their relevance (Strength: 5/10).
* Reason 4: Polarized party - The Republican Party is known for its polarization, which might make it difficult for candidates to drop out without losing support from their base (Strength: 7/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

* Reason 1: Financial strain - Running a presidential campaign is expensive, and candidates with limited financial resources might be forced to drop out (Strength: 8/10).
* Reason 2: Lack of momentum - If a candidate is not gaining traction or momentum in the polls, they might choose to drop out to avoid further financial losses (Strength: 7/10).
* Reason 3: Personal reasons - Candidates might drop out due to personal reasons, such as health issues or family concerns (Strength: 4/10).
* Reason 4: Party dynamics - The Republican Party has a history of candidate dropouts, and the current field might be no exception (Strength: 6/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, it seems that the likelihood of a candidate dropping out is influenced by a combination of factors, including polling numbers, financial resources, and personal reasons. While Donald Trump's stable lead and financial resources of some candidates might make it difficult for them to drop out, the financial strain and lack of momentum might push some candidates to exit the race.

5. Initial probability:

Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of a candidate dropping out before January 1, 2024, to be around 40%. This is a relatively moderate estimate, taking into account both the reasons for and against a candidate dropping out.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

Upon reflection, I realize that my initial probability might be too high. The base rate of candidate dropouts in presidential elections is relatively low, and the Republican Party's polarization and Trump's stable lead might make it even less likely for candidates to drop out. Additionally, some candidates might choose to stay in the race to maintain their relevance and influence within the party. Considering these factors, I might adjust my initial probability downward.

7. Final prediction:

*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Joe Biden's approval rating on 538 be 40% or higher on the following dates: 
2023-12-31? 
This question is asking whether Joe Biden's approval rating on 538 will meet or exceed 40% on December 31st, 2023, at 17:00 UTC. The answer to this question is relevant to understanding public opinion and its impact on policy and election predictions. It is essential to consider various factors that might influence Biden's approval rating and the accuracy of the prediction.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- **Reason 1: Current Unpopularity**: Biden's approval rating has been declining in recent months, which might indicate a trend of decreasing popularity. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 2: Economic Concerns**: The US economy has been facing challenges, including high inflation and a possible recession, which could negatively impact Biden's approval rating. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 3: Partisan Divisions**: The US is a highly polarized country, and Biden's approval rating might be influenced by partisan divisions, with some groups being more critical of his performance. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 4: Scandals and Controversies**: If there are any significant scandals or controversies surrounding the Biden administration in the coming months, it could further erode his approval rating. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- **Reason 1: Strong Economic Performance**: If the US economy experiences a strong recovery or shows signs of stability, it could positively impact Biden's approval rating. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 2: Effective Policy Implementation**: If the Biden administration successfully implements policies that benefit the majority of the population, it could lead to an increase in his approval rating. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 3: Improved Public Perception**: If there is a shift in public perception of Biden's performance, with more people viewing him favorably, it could lead to an increase in his approval rating. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 4: Lack of Significant Scandals**: If there are no significant scandals or controversies surrounding the Biden administration in the coming months, it could help maintain or increase his approval rating. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the factors pointing towards a decline in Biden's approval rating (Reasons 1-4 in section 2) are stronger than those pointing towards an increase (Reasons 1-4 in section 3). However, it is essential to note that the strength of these reasons can change over time, and new information might emerge that could influence the outcome.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Biden's approval rating being 40% or higher on December 31st, 2023, at 17:00 UTC to be around 25%. This is a relatively low probability due to the stronger reasons pointing towards a decline in his approval rating.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:

The initial probability of 25% seems relatively low, considering the complexity of predicting public opinion and the various factors that can influence it. It might be beneficial to consider the base rate of the event, which in this case is the general trend of presidential approval ratings. However, without more specific data, it is challenging to estimate this base rate accurately.

7. Final prediction:

*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024, given the ongoing negotiations with Deutsche Bahn and the previous warning strike in November? This question will resolve as Yes if, after December 5, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that a German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) strike has begun, including but not limited to a warning strike. An announcement that a strike will take place is not sufficient; the strike must actually begin. Reports that the strike is underway are not strictly necessary; an announcement of a strike combined with an absence of reporting stating that the strike did not occur will be sufficient to resolve as Yes.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on strength from 1 to 10, where 10 is the strongest):

* Reason 1: The GDL may have reached a tentative agreement with Deutsche Bahn, potentially averting a strike. (Strength: 6) 
* Reason 2: The union may have decided to focus on other negotiation strategies, such as mediation or arbitration, rather than a strike. (Strength: 4)
* Reason 3: Strikes can be costly and unpopular, and the GDL may be hesitant to disrupt services again. (Strength: 3)
* Reason 4: The GDL may be waiting for a more favorable time to strike, such as after the holiday season. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on strength from 1 to 10, where 10 is the strongest):

* Reason 1: The previous warning strike in November suggests that the GDL is willing to take action to pressure Deutsche Bahn. (Strength: 8)
* Reason 2: The GDL has a history of using strikes to achieve their goals, and they may see this as an effective tactic. (Strength: 7)
* Reason 3: The union may feel that the current negotiations are not progressing in their favor and may decide to strike to gain leverage. (Strength: 6)
* Reason 4: Strikes can be a way for the GDL to demonstrate their strength and unity to Deutsche Bahn and the public. (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:

The reasons for a strike (Reasons 1-4 in step 3) seem to outweigh the reasons against a strike (Reasons 1-4 in step 2). The GDL's willingness to take action, their history of using strikes, and the potential for leverage in negotiations all suggest that a strike is more likely. However, the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of negotiations and the potential for a tentative agreement or alternative strategies could mitigate this likelihood.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the reasons for and against a strike. However, it may be considered not confident enough, as the reasons for a strike seem to be relatively strong. Considering the base rate of strikes in the labor sector, which is typically around 10-20%, the initial probability may be slightly too high. However, the specific context of the GDL's previous strike and their willingness to take action may justify a higher probability.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024, given that on December 11, 2023, US Special Counsel Jack Smith filed a petition for a writ of certiorari before judgment to the Supreme Court, seeking judgment on the question of whether a former President is absolutely immune from federal prosecution for crimes committed while in office or is constitutionally protected from federal prosecution when he has been impeached but not convicted before the criminal proceedings begin? The petition reflects the latest event in the ongoing prosecution of Donald Trump for election interference and is asking the Supreme Court to decide on the immunity issue promptly so that the trial can proceed as scheduled on March 4, 2024. The Supreme Court has responded to the petition by moving to expedite consideration of the petition and directing Trump to file a response by December 20th. The question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2024, the US Supreme Court has issued a decision either granting or denying a writ of certiorari before judgment for the petition filed by US Special Counsel Jack Smith against Donald Trump.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- The Supreme Court's calendar is often busy and complex, and the Court may prioritize other cases over this one. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Supreme Court may be hesitant to take on a high-profile case, especially one involving a former President, which could lead to a delay in the decision. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Supreme Court's decision-making process can be unpredictable and may take longer than expected. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Court's order to expedite consideration of the petition may not necessarily mean that a decision will be issued before January 1, 2024. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- The Supreme Court has moved to expedite consideration of the petition, which suggests a sense of urgency and a desire to resolve the issue quickly. (Strength: 8/10)
- The petition is related to a high-profile case, and the Supreme Court may want to resolve the issue before the trial begins on March 4, 2024. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Supreme Court has a history of issuing decisions on high-profile cases relatively quickly, especially when there is a sense of urgency. (Strength: 9/10)
- The Court's order directing Trump to file a response by December 20th suggests that they are actively considering the petition and may issue a decision soon. (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons provided, I would say that the factors pointing towards a "yes" are slightly stronger than those pointing towards a "no". The Supreme Court's order to expedite consideration of the petition, the high-profile nature of the case, and the Court's history of issuing decisions on similar cases quickly all suggest that a decision may be issued before January 1, 2024. However, the unpredictability of the Court's decision-making process and the potential for delays in their calendar also suggest that a decision may not be issued on time.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate that the probability of the US Supreme Court issuing a decision on the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024, is around 70%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 70% seems reasonable, but it may be slightly too confident given the unpredictability of the Supreme Court's decision-making process. The Court's calendar and decision-making process can be complex and unpredictable, and there is always a risk of delays or unexpected events that could impact the timing of the decision.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will it be announced before January 1, 2024, that either Harvard President Claudine Gay or Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) President Sally Kornbluth will vacate their position as president of their respective university, due to the current controversy surrounding their handling of antisemitism on campus, potential backlash from the US government, and recent calls for their resignation from the US House of Representatives, despite having previously expressed support from the Harvard board of directors and facing no immediate action against them?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The Harvard board has already expressed support for President Gay, which might indicate a lack of pressure for her to resign. (Strength: 4)
- President Gay and President Kornbluth have not faced immediate disciplinary action from their universities, suggesting that they may be able to weather the current controversy. (Strength: 4)
- The US House of Representatives' resolution condemning antisemitism and calling for their resignation is not a binding measure, and it may not be enough to prompt their resignation. (Strength: 3)
- The universities may be able to take steps to address the controversy without requiring the resignation of their presidents. (Strength: 3)
- The presidents may be able to weather the storm and remain in their positions until their terms expire or are up for renewal. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The US House of Representatives' resolution condemning antisemitism and calling for their resignation carries significant weight and may put pressure on the universities to take action. (Strength: 5)
- The controversy surrounding the presidents' handling of antisemitism on campus may continue to escalate, making it difficult for them to remain in their positions. (Strength: 5)
- The universities may face further scrutiny and criticism from the US government, leading to a loss of confidence in the presidents' ability to lead. (Strength: 4)
- The presidents may face internal pressure from faculty, students, or alumni to resign, particularly if they are seen as not taking sufficient action to address antisemitism on campus. (Strength: 4)
- The controversy may damage the reputations of the universities, leading to a desire to distance themselves from the presidents and remove them from office. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:

The reasons for the answer being no are strong, but the reasons for the answer being yes are even stronger. The US House of Representatives' resolution and the ongoing controversy surrounding the presidents' handling of antisemitism on campus create significant pressure for them to resign. While the Harvard board has expressed support for President Gay, this may not be enough to insulate her from the fallout. The universities may need to take action to address the controversy, and removing the presidents may be seen as a necessary step.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the answer being yes at 80.

6. Evaluation of the probability:

The initial probability of 80 may be excessively confident, as there are many variables at play and the outcome is uncertain. The controversy may continue to escalate or subside, and the universities may take steps to address the issue without requiring the resignation of their presidents. However, the US House of Representatives' resolution and the ongoing criticism of the presidents create a strong likelihood that they will face pressure to resign. The base rate of presidents resigning in similar circumstances is not readily available, but it is likely to be low. This may make the event less likely than my initial estimate.

7. Final prediction:

*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and expanded question:**

Will NASA successfully re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before January 1, 2024, by implementing a fix to the current issue with its flight data system (FDS), which appears to be stuck on auto-repeat, sending back a repeating pattern of ones and zeroes? If the solution does not involve the suspected FDS, will NASA start receiving either science or engineering data from Voyager 1 before January 1, 2024?

**Reasons why the answer might be no:**

1. **Time constraint**: The mission team has already acknowledged that a fix is unlikely to be implemented before the new year, and it could take several weeks for engineers to develop a new plan to remedy the issue. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Complexity of the issue**: The problem with the FDS is a complex one, and finding solutions to challenges the probes encounter often entails consulting original, decades-old documents written by engineers who didn't anticipate the issues that are arising today. This complexity increases the likelihood of delays. (Strength: 7.5/10)
3. **Risk of unintended consequences**: The mission team is cautious about implementing new commands to avoid unintended consequences, which might lead to further delays or even more complex problems. (Strength: 6.5/10)
4. **Base rate of successful fixes**: Historically, fixing issues with Voyager 1 and 2 has been a challenging and time-consuming process, with periods of communication loss and recovery. (Strength: 6/10)

**Reasons why the answer might be yes:**

1. **Dedicated mission team**: NASA has a dedicated team working on the Voyager mission, and they have successfully resolved previous issues with the probes. (Strength: 7/10)
2. **Prior experience with similar issues**: The team has experience with similar problems, such as the 2020 issue with Voyager 2's antenna orientation, which they were able to resolve using a long-shot "shout" technique. (Strength: 6.5/10)
3. **Advances in technology and expertise**: The team may have access to new technologies and expertise that can help them develop a more efficient solution to the current issue. (Strength: 5.5/10)

**Aggregated considerations:**

Considering the time constraint, complexity of the issue, risk of unintended consequences, and base rate of successful fixes, the initial probability of a successful re-establishment of communications before January 1, 2024, is relatively low. However, the dedicated mission team, prior experience with similar issues, and potential advances in technology and expertise suggest that there is still a chance of success.

**Initial probability:**

Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the initial probability of a successful re-establishment of communications before January 1, 2024, to be 25%.

**Evaluation of initial probability:**

The initial probability of 25% seems relatively low, given the team's experience and the potential for advances in technology and expertise. However, the complexity of the issue and the time constraint are significant concerns. Considering the base rate of successful fixes, it's possible that the actual probability is even lower.

**Final prediction:**

*0.20*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.2
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**
Will the US Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to the presidential immunity case filed by US Special Counsel Jack Smith against Donald Trump before February 1, 2024, given that the petition was filed on December 11, 2023, and the Supreme Court has already responded with a motion to expedite consideration and a deadline for Trump's response by December 20th, considering the ongoing trial schedule and the potential implications of the Supreme Court's decision on the proceedings?

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **Heavy workload and limited time**: The Supreme Court has a significant backlog of cases, and the justices might prioritize other cases over this one, especially considering the tight deadline for a decision before February 1, 2024. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Complexity of the issue**: The question of presidential immunity is a complex and contentious issue, and the Supreme Court might be hesitant to take it on, especially given the high stakes and potential implications for future cases. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Lack of clear precedent**: The Supreme Court might be hesitant to create new precedent on this issue, especially given the potential for far-reaching consequences. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Potential for delay tactics**: Trump's lawyers might try to delay the proceedings by appealing to the Supreme Court, which could lead to a longer delay in the trial. (Strength: 4/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **Urgency of the case**: The Supreme Court has already shown a willingness to expedite consideration of the petition, which suggests that they might be eager to resolve the issue quickly. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Importance of the issue**: The question of presidential immunity is a significant one, and the Supreme Court might be motivated to take it on to provide clarity and guidance on the issue. (Strength: 9/10)
3. **Potential for a significant decision**: A decision on presidential immunity could have far-reaching implications for future cases, and the Supreme Court might be eager to take on the issue to establish a clear precedent. (Strength: 8/10)
4. **Pressure from the trial schedule**: The trial is scheduled to begin on March 4, 2024, and the Supreme Court might feel pressure to make a decision before then to allow the trial to proceed as scheduled. (Strength: 7/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**
Considering the reasons above, I think the likelihood of the Supreme Court granting a writ of certiorari before February 1, 2024, is relatively high. The Supreme Court has already shown a willingness to expedite consideration of the petition, and the issue is significant and complex. However, the heavy workload and potential for delay tactics from Trump's lawyers might still pose some challenges.

**Initial Probability:**
Based on my aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of the Supreme Court granting a writ of certiorari before February 1, 2024, to be 70.

**Evaluation of Initial Probability:**
My initial probability of 70 seems relatively confident, but I might be underestimating the potential for delay tactics from Trump's lawyers. Additionally, the Supreme Court's workload and the complexity of the issue might still pose some challenges. However, the urgency of the case and the potential for a significant decision might still tip the scales in favor of a Supreme Court decision.

**Final Prediction:**
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a major shipping company from the list of Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, Evergreen, or BP announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before December 31, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, without any conditions, and with a clear intention or plan to resume shipments, as reported by credible sources?

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Uncertainty about the effectiveness of the US naval protection force**: The US naval protection force may not be sufficient to guarantee the safety of merchant ships in the Red Sea, which could lead shipping companies to remain cautious and not resume shipments. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Ongoing tensions and potential for further attacks**: The conflict in the Red Sea is ongoing, and there is a risk of further attacks on merchant ships, which could deter shipping companies from resuming shipments. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Shipping companies may prefer to avoid the Red Sea**: Shipping companies may choose to avoid the Red Sea due to the risks associated with navigating the area, even if the US naval protection force is in place. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Shipping companies may prioritize other routes**: With the Red Sea being a critical shipping route, companies may choose to prioritize other routes, such as the Suez Canal, to minimize disruptions to their operations. (Strength: 6/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Announcement of the US naval protection force**: The announcement of the US naval protection force may provide a sense of security for shipping companies, leading them to resume shipments. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Shipping companies may see the US naval protection force as a game-changer**: The US naval protection force may be seen as a significant development that changes the risk assessment for shipping companies, leading them to resume shipments. (Strength: 9/10)
3. **Economic pressure to resume shipments**: Shipping companies may face economic pressure to resume shipments as soon as possible to minimize disruptions to their operations and maintain customer satisfaction. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Shipping companies may be optimistic about the situation**: Shipping companies may be optimistic about the situation in the Red Sea and believe that the risks are manageable, leading them to resume shipments. (Strength: 5/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against, I believe that the announcement of the US naval protection force is a significant development that may lead shipping companies to resume shipments. However, the uncertainty about the effectiveness of the protection force and the ongoing tensions in the region are significant concerns. I also consider the economic pressure on shipping companies to resume shipments and their potential optimism about the situation.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 60 may be overly optimistic, as it does not fully account for the uncertainty and risks associated with the situation in the Red Sea. However, it also does not fully capture the potential benefits of the US naval protection force.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before January 1, 2024, due to an attack by the Yemeni Houthi rebels or any other entity, excluding non-combat deaths such as those occurring during training or by accident? This event must occur after December 20, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- The US has announced a naval protection force for merchant ships in the Red Sea, which might deter further attacks or make it more difficult for the Houthi rebels to target US military personnel. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Houthi rebels might be cautious about attacking US military personnel directly, given the potential consequences of such an action. (Strength: 5/10)
- The US military might have taken additional security measures to protect its personnel in the Red Sea. (Strength: 4/10)
- The Houthi rebels might be focused on attacking commercial shipping rather than targeting the US military. (Strength: 7/10)
- The US and its allies might be able to negotiate a ceasefire or a reduction in tensions in the region, reducing the likelihood of further attacks. (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- The Houthi rebels have a history of launching attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, and there is no indication that they have changed their tactics. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Houthi rebels have been emboldened by the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, which might lead them to continue their attacks in the Red Sea. (Strength: 9/10)
- The US military presence in the Red Sea is significant, and it is likely that the Houthi rebels will continue to target US military personnel as part of their broader strategy. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Houthi rebels have a wide degree of support in the Arab world, which might embolden them to continue their attacks. (Strength: 7/10)
- The US military might not be able to prevent all attacks, and the Houthi rebels might be able to launch a successful attack despite the naval protection force. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the most significant factors that contribute to the likelihood of a US military combat death in the Red Sea before January 1, 2024, are the Houthi rebels' history of launching attacks, their emboldenment by the Hamas attack on Israel, and their likely targeting of US military personnel. However, the presence of the US naval protection force and the potential for the US and its allies to negotiate a ceasefire or reduce tensions in the region also play a role.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the balanced consideration of both the reasons for and against a US military combat death in the Red Sea before January 1, 2024. However, this probability might be considered not confident enough, given the high likelihood of the Houthi rebels continuing their attacks and the potential for a successful attack despite the US naval protection force.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and expanded question:**
Will the ban on imports of Apple watches containing blood oxygen sensors, which was ruled by the U.S. International Trade Commission in October 2023 due to patent infringement claims by Masimo, take effect before December 27, 2023, considering that the presidential review period ends on December 25th and the ban will be considered effective if the International Trade Commission order becomes final after the review period, or if the President has not disapproved the order or has affirmatively approved it?

**Reasons why the answer might be no:**

1. **Presidential veto**: The President has the power to veto the ban, which has been done in the past, and it's unclear whether President Biden will uphold the ban. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Uncertainty about the President's decision**: The President's decision to veto or uphold the ban is not yet known, and it's difficult to predict their actions. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **History of presidential vetoes**: President Biden has previously upheld an ITC ruling that would see Apple Watch imports banned over the EKG feature, but also vetoed an ITC import ban on the iPhone 4 and certain iPad models. This mixed history makes it harder to predict their decision. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Timeframe for presidential review**: The presidential review period ends on December 25th, which leaves a relatively short timeframe for the ban to take effect before December 27th. (Strength: 4/10)

**Reasons why the answer might be yes:**

1. **Previous import ban upheld**: President Biden has previously upheld an ITC ruling that would see Apple Watch imports banned over the EKG feature, suggesting they may be inclined to uphold this ban as well. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **ITC ruling is in place**: The U.S. International Trade Commission has already ruled in favor of Masimo, and the ban will be considered effective if the President does not disapprove the order or has affirmatively approved it. (Strength: 9/10)
3. **Apple's previous actions**: Apple has already announced that they will halt sales of the affected Apple watches, which suggests they are preparing for the ban to take effect. (Strength: 6/10)
4. **Lack of clear opposition**: There is no clear indication of opposition to the ban from other parties, which could facilitate its implementation. (Strength: 5/10)

**Aggregated considerations:**
Considering the reasons above, the likelihood of the ban taking effect before December 27th seems higher than not. The fact that the ITC ruling is in place and the President has previously upheld a similar ban suggests that the ban may be implemented. However, the uncertainty about the President's decision and the history of presidential vetoes introduce some uncertainty.

**Initial probability:** 65

**Evaluation of initial probability:**
The initial probability seems relatively high, but considering the uncertainty about the President's decision and the mixed history of presidential vetos, it may be too confident. The base rate of the event (i.e., the frequency of presidential vetos) is also not provided, which could affect the forecast.

**Final prediction:** *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will US federal criminal charges be filed against Changpeng Zhao, the founder of Binance, for actions related to the operation of Binance and/or Binance.US before December 30, 2023?

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating out of 10):
1. The US Department of Justice (DOJ) has historically taken time to investigate and charge high-profile individuals, often taking years or even decades. (Strength: 6)
2. The DOJ may be prioritizing civil charges against Binance and Zhao, which could be a more efficient way to address the alleged wrongdoing without the added complexity of a criminal trial. (Strength: 5)
3. Zhao and Binance may be cooperating with the DOJ, potentially leading to a negotiated settlement or reduced charges. (Strength: 4)
4. The DOJ may not have gathered sufficient evidence to secure a conviction, or may be facing challenges in building a strong case. (Strength: 7)
5. The DOJ may be waiting for further developments or events, such as the outcome of the ongoing civil cases against Binance, before deciding to pursue criminal charges. (Strength: 6)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating out of 10):
1. The DOJ has already launched an investigation into Binance and Zhao, and the SEC and CFTC have filed civil complaints, indicating a strong interest in holding them accountable. (Strength: 9)
2. The alleged wrongdoing by Binance and Zhao, including potential sanctions evasion and market manipulation, could be serious enough to warrant criminal charges. (Strength: 8)
3. The Biden administration has been actively pursuing cryptocurrency regulation, which could lead to increased enforcement actions, including criminal charges. (Strength: 6)
4. The public scrutiny and pressure on Binance and Zhao may be mounting, making it more likely that the DOJ will take action to demonstrate its commitment to enforcing the law. (Strength: 5)

Aggregated considerations:
The reasons for a "no" outcome are somewhat plausible, but the strength of the reasons for a "yes" outcome are stronger and more directly related to the current situation. The DOJ's investigation and the civil complaints from the SEC and CFTC suggest a high level of interest in holding Binance and Zhao accountable. However, the DOJ's historical pace and the potential challenges in building a strong case could still lead to a delay or a different outcome.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of confidence:
The initial probability of 60 seems relatively cautious, given the strong reasons for a "yes" outcome. However, the DOJ's track record and the potential challenges in building a case suggest that there is still a significant degree of uncertainty. The base rate of criminal charges being filed in high-profile cases like this is relatively low, which may also contribute to the uncertainty.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will SpaceX successfully launch its next Starship orbital flight test before October 15, 2023? Considering the current timeline, which suggests a launch as soon as summer 2023, and the criteria for a successful launch being a successful first stage separation, what are the chances of SpaceX meeting this deadline?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- SpaceX has a history of delays and setbacks in their development and testing of Starship, which might impact their ability to meet the timeline (Strength: 6/10).
- The complexity of the Starship program, including the development of the Raptor engine and the integration of the spacecraft, might introduce unforeseen challenges that could delay the launch (Strength: 7/10).
- The summer 2023 timeline is ambitious, and the company might need more time to complete the necessary testing and preparations (Strength: 5/10).
- The successful launch of the next Starship orbital flight test depends on various factors, including the availability of resources, personnel, and equipment, which might not be fully aligned (Strength: 4/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- SpaceX has made significant progress in recent months, including successful engine tests and the development of the Starship spacecraft (Strength: 8/10).
- Elon Musk has stated that the company aims to launch the next Starship orbital flight test as soon as possible, indicating a strong commitment to the timeline (Strength: 7/10).
- The company has a history of rapid progress and innovation, which could help them overcome any challenges and meet the deadline (Strength: 6/10).
- The summer 2023 timeline is still relatively close, and SpaceX might be able to accelerate their development and testing efforts to meet the deadline (Strength: 5/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that the factors pointing towards a successful launch before October 15, 2023, are slightly stronger. However, the history of delays and the complexity of the Starship program still introduce some uncertainty.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of a successful launch before October 15, 2023, to be around 65.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
The initial probability seems relatively high, considering the history of delays and setbacks in the Starship program. However, the company's progress in recent months and their commitment to the timeline suggest that they might be able to meet the deadline. Another factor to consider is the base rate of successful orbital launch tests, which is relatively low in the space industry. This might suggest that SpaceX's chances of success are actually lower than initially estimated.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will North Korea successfully put a satellite into orbit before 23 September 2023, given their previous attempts and capabilities, despite past failures and the challenges associated with launching a spy satellite?

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Past failures and technical challenges**: North Korea's previous attempts at launching a spy satellite have been unsuccessful, which suggests that they may still be working on resolving technical issues that hinder their ability to achieve a successful launch. Strength: 8/10
2. **Limited resources and expertise**: North Korea's space program is relatively underdeveloped compared to other countries, which may limit their access to advanced technology and expertise. Strength: 6/10
3. **International sanctions and restrictions**: The international community has imposed sanctions on North Korea, which may limit their access to resources and technology necessary for launching a satellite. Strength: 5/10
4. **Uncertainty about the launch window**: The exact timing of the launch is uncertain, and it's possible that North Korea may not be able to meet the deadline. Strength: 4/10

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Previous successes**: North Korea has successfully launched at least two satellites into orbit in the past, which suggests that they have some level of capability and expertise. Strength: 9/10
2. **Dedication to space program**: North Korea has shown a strong commitment to their space program, which may indicate that they are willing to invest time and resources into overcoming technical challenges. Strength: 8/10
3. **Potential for learning from past failures**: North Korea may have learned from their past failures and made significant improvements to their technology and launch capabilities. Strength: 7/10
4. **Desire for prestige and international recognition**: Launching a successful satellite could be a significant achievement for North Korea, which may motivate them to succeed. Strength: 6/10

Aggregate considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, I would rate the overall likelihood of North Korea successfully launching a satellite into orbit before 23 September 2023 as moderate. While there are valid reasons to doubt their ability to succeed, their past successes and commitment to their space program suggest that they may have made significant progress in overcoming technical challenges.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 60 may be overly optimistic, as it does not take into account the base rate of satellite launches being successful. In reality, many satellite launches fail, so the base rate of success is likely lower than 60. Additionally, the consequences of failure may be significant for North Korea, which could impact their motivation and ability to succeed.

Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) vote to approve a new collective bargaining agreement with the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) before 1 October 2023, considering the ongoing labor unrest and potential White House intervention, and given that dock workers have been working without a contract since July 2022?

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **ILWU's strong bargaining position**: The ILWU has been working without a contract for over a year, which may give them significant leverage in negotiations. If they feel that the proposed agreement does not meet their demands, they may reject it. Strength: 6/10
2. **Union's history of tough negotiations**: The ILWU has a history of engaging in contentious negotiations with the PMA, and their members may be hesitant to accept a deal that doesn't fully address their concerns. Strength: 7/10
3. **Potential for White House intervention**: If the White House intervenes, it may create uncertainty and potentially disrupt the negotiations, leading to a rejection of the proposed agreement. Strength: 5/10
4. **ILWU's desire for improved working conditions and wages**: The union may be seeking significant improvements in working conditions and wages, which may not be met by the proposed agreement. Strength: 8/10

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Economic pressure**: The prolonged labor dispute has already caused significant economic losses, and the ILWU may feel pressure to accept a deal that avoids further disruption. Strength: 9/10
2. **PMA's willingness to negotiate**: The PMA has been engaging in negotiations with the ILWU, indicating a willingness to find a mutually acceptable agreement. Strength: 8/10
3. **ILWU's interest in stability**: The union may prioritize stability and a return to work over continued labor unrest, making them more likely to accept a deal. Strength: 7/10
4. **Potential for concessions**: The PMA may offer concessions to the ILWU to secure a deal, which could lead to a successful vote. Strength: 6/10

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the above factors, I believe that the ILWU's strong bargaining position, history of tough negotiations, and desire for improved working conditions and wages make a rejection of the proposed agreement more likely. However, the economic pressure, PMA's willingness to negotiate, ILWU's interest in stability, and potential for concessions may contribute to a more positive outcome.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 40 may be too low, considering the economic pressure and PMA's willingness to negotiate. I may have underweighted the potential for concessions and the ILWU's interest in stability. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a collective bargaining agreement being approved) is likely higher than 0, as many such agreements are ultimately reached.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities (total, not each) before December 16, 2023? This question is focused on a specific type of conflict, excluding incidents involving unauthorized armed forces or law enforcement personnel. The situation involves the ongoing tensions between Russia and NATO, particularly in the context of Ukraine's defense against Russia, where NATO has provided support without direct involvement. We will consider all 31 NATO member states in this assessment. The question's resolution criteria are not applicable, and the current date is June 16, 2023, with a close date of December 16, 2023.

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Current diplomatic efforts**: Ongoing diplomatic efforts between Russia, NATO, and other global leaders might reduce tensions and prevent a direct confrontation. (Strength: 3)
2. **NATO's cautious approach**: NATO's support for Ukraine is indirect, and they have been cautious in their actions, which might prevent a direct confrontation. (Strength: 4)
3. **Russian military capabilities**: Russia's military capabilities are significant, but they might be hesitant to engage in a direct confrontation with NATO forces, considering the potential consequences. (Strength: 4)
4. **International pressure**: The international community is likely to apply significant pressure on both Russia and NATO to avoid a direct confrontation, which could help prevent a lethal confrontation. (Strength: 3)
5. **Lack of clear provocation**: There hasn't been a clear, direct provocation that would necessitate a lethal confrontation between Russia and a NATO member state. (Strength: 5)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Escalating tensions**: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the tensions between Russia and NATO could escalate, leading to a direct confrontation. (Strength: 4)
2. **Russian military build-up**: Russia's military build-up near NATO borders and in Ukraine could be seen as a provocation, increasing the likelihood of a confrontation. (Strength: 4)
3. **Miscalculation or accident**: A miscalculation or accident could lead to a lethal confrontation between Russian and NATO forces. (Strength: 3)
4. **NATO's commitment to Ukraine**: NATO's commitment to supporting Ukraine could lead to a direct confrontation with Russia, especially if Russia perceives it as a threat. (Strength: 4)
5. **Geopolitical tensions**: The current geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West could lead to a confrontation, given the complex and sensitive nature of the situation. (Strength: 4)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for both "yes" and "no," I believe that the likelihood of a lethal confrontation between Russia and a NATO member state is relatively low, but not impossible. The cautious approach of NATO, ongoing diplomatic efforts, and international pressure all contribute to a lower likelihood. However, the escalating tensions, Russian military build-up, and geopolitical tensions suggest that a confrontation is still possible.

Initial probability: 25

Evaluation of the initial probability:

The initial probability of 25 seems relatively low, considering the ongoing tensions and the potential for miscalculation or accident. However, the cautious approach of NATO and the ongoing diplomatic efforts might reduce the likelihood of a direct confrontation.

Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will any territory in the Ukrainian oblasts of Chernihiv, Kyiv, Rivne, Volyn, or Zhytomyr cease to be under Ukrainian control and be assessed as either "Assessed Russian Advance" or "Assessed Russian Control" by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine before November 1, 2023, given the current situation of Russia potentially invading Ukraine via a renuclearized Belarus that is providing sanctuary to the Wagner Group?

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Strength: 6/10**: Ukraine's military has shown resilience and determination in defending its territory, and it's possible that they might be able to maintain control over the bordering oblasts despite the potential threat from Belarus and Russia.
2. **Strength: 5/10**: The Ukrainian military has received significant support from Western countries, including military aid and economic assistance, which could help them maintain control over their territory.
3. **Strength: 4/10**: The Russian military has faced significant challenges in Ukraine, including logistical issues and a determined Ukrainian resistance, which might limit their ability to launch a successful invasion.

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Strength: 9/10**: The presence of the Wagner Group in Belarus and the potential for Russia to renuclearize the country creates a significant threat to Ukraine's security and could lead to a loss of control over the bordering oblasts.
2. **Strength: 8/10**: The Russian military has a significant advantage in terms of military power and resources, which could allow them to launch a successful invasion of Ukraine, including the bordering oblasts.
3. **Strength: 7/10**: The instability in Belarus, with the country providing sanctuary to the Wagner Group, creates an opportunity for Russia to launch a surprise attack on Ukraine, which could lead to a loss of control over the bordering oblasts.

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, the main factors that influence the outcome are the potential threat from Russia and Belarus, Ukraine's military resilience, and the level of support from Western countries. The presence of the Wagner Group in Belarus and the potential for Russia to renuclearize the country creates a significant threat to Ukraine's security, but Ukraine's military has shown resilience and determination in defending its territory. The level of support from Western countries could also play a crucial role in determining the outcome.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of the initial probability:

The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the conflicting factors that could influence the outcome. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as the potential threat from Russia and Belarus is significant. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of Ukraine losing control over its territory), it's likely that the actual probability is higher than 60.

Final prediction: *0.80*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.8
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will federal legislation waiving Section 230 immunity with regard to the use of generative artificial intelligence (AI) become law before January 12, 2024, considering the current legislative process, the complexity of AI regulation, and the potential opposition from tech companies and other stakeholders?

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
1. The legislative process in the US can be slow and unpredictable, with many bills dying in committee or being delayed due to partisan disagreements (Strength: 4). 
2. Tech companies and their lobbyists may strongly oppose any changes to Section 230, which could lead to a prolonged and difficult negotiation process (Strength: 5).
3. The regulation of AI is a complex and contentious issue, with different stakeholders having varying opinions on how to approach it (Strength: 4).
4. The US Congress has many other pressing issues to address, such as the economy, healthcare, and national security, which may take priority over AI regulation (Strength: 3).

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
1. There is bipartisan support for regulating AI, with some lawmakers from both parties recognizing the need for greater accountability and transparency (Strength: 4).
2. The use of AI has raised significant concerns about its impact on society, including issues related to disinformation, job displacement, and bias (Strength: 5).
3. The US has a history of updating laws and regulations to address emerging technologies, such as the Communications Decency Act of 1996, which updated Section 230 (Strength: 4).
4. Some lawmakers may see waiving Section 230 immunity as a way to hold tech companies accountable for the content generated by their AI systems (Strength: 3).

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the complex and contentious nature of AI regulation, the opposition from tech companies, and the slow legislative process, I would rate the likelihood of federal legislation waiving Section 230 immunity with regard to generative AI becoming law before January 12, 2024, as relatively low. However, the bipartisan support for regulating AI and the growing concerns about its impact on society suggest that there is a possibility of some form of legislation being passed.

Initial probability: 30

Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability of 30 may be too low, given the bipartisan support for regulating AI and the growing concerns about its impact on society. However, the slow legislative process and opposition from tech companies may still pose significant challenges to passing any legislation before January 12, 2024.

Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will NATO or a NATO member state publicly accuse the Republic of Serbia's national military forces and/or law enforcement of entering Kosovo without authorization before November 1, 2023, given the current tensions between Serbia and Kosovo, the deployment of NATO's KFOR peacekeeping forces, and the domestic political protests in Serbia? 

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Diplomatic efforts to avoid escalation**: NATO and Serbia might engage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and avoid further conflict, which could include avoiding public accusations against each other. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **KFOR's presence and mandate**: KFOR's presence in Kosovo is to maintain peace and stability, and they might be cautious not to provoke further conflict by making public accusations against Serbia. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **NATO's reluctance to escalate**: NATO might be hesitant to escalate the situation by publicly accusing Serbia, as it could lead to further tensions and potential military action. (Strength: 7/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Escalating tensions**: The current tensions between Serbia and Kosovo, including the clashes between Serb protesters and KFOR forces, might lead to increased tensions and a higher likelihood of public accusations. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Serbia's previous requests**: Serbia's previous request to deploy its forces in Kosovo, which was declined by KFOR, might lead to a sense of mistrust and increase the likelihood of public accusations. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **NATO's need to maintain credibility**: NATO might feel the need to maintain its credibility and authority in the region by publicly addressing and condemning any unauthorized actions by Serbia's military forces or law enforcement. (Strength: 5/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I think that the likelihood of NATO or a NATO member state publicly accusing the Republic of Serbia's national military forces and/or law enforcement of entering Kosovo without authorization before November 1, 2023, is moderate.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability might be slightly too high, as it does not take into account the base rate of such events, which might be relatively low. Additionally, the situation is complex and influenced by various factors, which could lead to a lower probability.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) be approved and begin trading on a US exchange before December 30, 2023, considering the ongoing efforts of asset managers like BlackRock, who submitted an application to the SEC in June 2023, and excluding ETFs for bitcoin derivatives or firms with cryptocurrency exposure?

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. Regulatory hurdles (strength: 4): The SEC has historically been cautious about approving cryptocurrency-related products, and the regulatory environment in the US is still evolving. The approval process may take longer than expected, or the SEC might reject the application.
2. Concerns about market volatility and investor protection (strength: 3): The SEC might be hesitant to approve a bitcoin ETF due to concerns about market volatility and the potential for investor losses.
3. Competition from other investment products (strength: 2): The emergence of other investment products, such as futures or other types of funds, might reduce the demand for a bitcoin ETF, making it less likely to be approved.
4. BlackRock's past experience with SEC rejections (strength: 2): BlackRock has faced rejections from the SEC in the past, which might indicate a cautious approach to approving their applications.

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. Growing demand for cryptocurrency investment products (strength: 5): The increasing popularity of cryptocurrency investments and the growing demand for a more accessible and regulated way to invest in bitcoin might lead to a positive decision from the SEC.
2. BlackRock's experience and resources (strength: 4): As a well-established and reputable asset manager, BlackRock has the resources and expertise to navigate the regulatory process and address any concerns the SEC might have.
3. SEC's increasing openness to cryptocurrency regulation (strength: 3): The SEC has shown a willingness to engage with the cryptocurrency industry and explore regulatory frameworks for digital assets, which might indicate a more favorable environment for approving a bitcoin ETF.
4. Other successful ETF approvals (strength: 2): The approval of other ETFs, including those with exposure to other assets, might set a precedent for the SEC to approve a bitcoin ETF.

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, I would weigh the strength of each argument. The regulatory hurdles and concerns about market volatility are significant obstacles, but the growing demand for cryptocurrency investment products and BlackRock's experience and resources might counterbalance these concerns. The SEC's increasing openness to cryptocurrency regulation and the precedent set by other ETF approvals also support a positive outcome.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the mixed signals from the reasons for both a yes and no answer. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as some of the reasons for a yes answer are quite strong (e.g., growing demand for cryptocurrency investment products and BlackRock's experience).

Additional considerations:
The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a bitcoin ETF being approved in the US) is relatively low, as the SEC has been cautious about approving cryptocurrency-related products in the past. However, the increasing demand for cryptocurrency investment products and the growing acceptance of digital assets by regulatory bodies might have changed the landscape.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Between 9 June 2023 and 29 September 2023, will the shares of Alphabet (Google) outperform the shares of Microsoft in terms of percentage change, where the performance is determined by dividing the closing values of each stock on 29 September 2023 by their respective closing values on 9 June 2023? In the event of an exact tie, the stock with the greater percentage increase at any point between the close on 9 June 2023 to the close on 29 September 2023 will be deemed the outperformer. If either company undergoes a stock split, the price of shares will be adjusted accordingly.

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. Microsoft has a more diversified business model, with a stronger presence in the enterprise software market, which could provide a stable revenue stream and reduce the impact of potential fluctuations in the AI market (strength: 3).
2. Microsoft has been investing heavily in AI research and development, but its existing strengths in areas like Azure and Office could provide a solid foundation for growth, making it less dependent on AI-specific advancements (strength: 4).
3. Alphabet (Google) has a significant lead in AI research and development, but its reliance on advertising revenue could be vulnerable to economic downturns or changes in consumer behavior (strength: 2).
4. Microsoft has a more established partnership with OpenAI, a leading AI research organization, which could provide access to cutting-edge technology and expertise (strength: 4).
5. The AI market is highly competitive, and Alphabet (Google) might face challenges in maintaining its lead, allowing Microsoft to catch up or surpass it (strength: 5).

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. Alphabet (Google) has a significant lead in AI research and development, with a strong track record of innovation and a large talent pool (strength: 5).
2. Alphabet (Google) has a strong presence in the cloud computing market, which is critical for AI development and deployment (strength: 4).
3. Alphabet (Google) has a large and diverse portfolio of AI-powered products and services, including Google Cloud AI Platform, Google Cloud Vision, and Google Cloud Natural Language Processing (strength: 4).
4. Alphabet (Google) has a strong brand and reputation in the tech industry, which could provide a competitive advantage in the AI market (strength: 3).
5. Alphabet (Google) has a strong track record of investing in emerging technologies, including AI, and has made significant investments in AI research and development (strength: 5).

Aggregated considerations:
The question is asking for a prediction about the relative performance of two companies in a specific time period. Both companies have strengths and weaknesses, and the outcome is uncertain. However, Alphabet (Google) has a significant lead in AI research and development, a strong presence in the cloud computing market, and a large and diverse portfolio of AI-powered products and services. Microsoft has a more diversified business model, a strong presence in the enterprise software market, and a established partnership with OpenAI. Considering these factors, I would argue that Alphabet (Google) is more likely to outperform Microsoft in terms of percentage change.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of confidence:
My initial probability is 60, which I consider to be a moderate level of confidence. I have considered various factors, but there are still many uncertainties involved in predicting the performance of these two companies. The base rate of the event is not explicitly stated, but I assume it is around 50% since it's a binary outcome.

Final prediction: *0.625*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.625
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Harvard Crimson defeat the Yale Bulldogs in their 139th annual college football game, scheduled to take place at Yale Bowl Stadium on November 18, 2023? This question is based on the historical context of the rivalry between the two teams, with Yale leading the overall series 69-61-8 since 1875. Given the current date of November 7, 2023, the outcome of the game is uncertain, and various factors can influence the result. 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- The Yale Bulldogs have historically led the series with a significant margin (69-61-8), indicating a potential advantage for Yale.
- Strength of the teams: Although the provided information does not mention the current strength of the teams, it is possible that Yale might have a stronger team in 2023.
- Yale's home-field advantage at Yale Bowl Stadium could impact the outcome, as the team might be more familiar with the playing conditions.
- Harvard might be underdogs going into the game, which could affect their performance and overall chances of winning.

Strength ratings: 
- Yale's historical advantage: 8/10
- Strength of the teams: 6/10
- Yale's home-field advantage: 7/10
- Harvard being underdogs: 5/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- The Harvard Crimson might have improved their team since the last meeting, which could give them an edge over Yale.
- Coaching and team dynamics can play a significant role in football, and Harvard might have a better coaching staff or team morale.
- Upsets can happen in sports, and Harvard might be able to pull off an upset victory.

Strength ratings:
- Harvard's potential improvement: 6/10
- Coaching and team dynamics: 5/10
- Upsets in sports: 8/10

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the historical advantage of Yale, the potential strength of the teams, and the home-field advantage, it seems that Yale has a slight edge in the game. However, the possibility of Harvard improving, upsets in sports, and coaching and team dynamics cannot be ruled out. A balanced view would be that Yale has a slight advantage, but it's not a guarantee.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the initial probability of Harvard defeating Yale as 40%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40% seems reasonable, considering the historical context and the potential factors that could influence the outcome. However, it might be slightly too confident, as the actual outcome could be heavily influenced by various factors not considered here, such as team injuries, weather conditions, and other external factors.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Israel publicly acknowledge or announce a hostage/prisoner exchange with a group holding one or more Israelis captured in the attack in southern Israel in early October 2023, before 9 April 2024, involving the release of at least one Israeli hostage or prisoner, which can be directly to the group holding the hostages or through a third party as part of an agreement? The exchange can include releasing persons to third parties, such as transferring jailed prisoners to other countries, in accordance with an agreement.

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, 5 being the strongest):

1. **Hamas's history of holding onto hostages**: Hamas has a history of holding onto hostages for extended periods, often using them as leverage in negotiations. This suggests that they might not be willing to release hostages quickly or easily. (Strength: 4)
2. **Israel's reluctance to negotiate with Hamas**: Israel has historically been hesitant to negotiate directly with Hamas, viewing them as a terrorist organization. This reluctance might lead to a delay or refusal to engage in a hostage exchange. (Strength: 3)
3. **Security concerns and conditions**: Israel might have security concerns about releasing prisoners or hostages, potentially including concerns about their safety or the potential for further attacks. This could lead to a delay in negotiations or a refusal to engage in an exchange. (Strength: 2)
4. **Diplomatic efforts and international pressure**: The international community, including the United States, the European Union, and other countries, might put pressure on Israel to engage in negotiations and secure the release of hostages. However, this could also lead to a delay in negotiations as Israel considers the diplomatic implications. (Strength: 2)
5. **Internal Israeli politics**: The Israeli government might be divided on how to handle the hostage situation, potentially leading to a delay in negotiations or a refusal to engage in an exchange. (Strength: 1)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, 5 being the strongest):

1. **International pressure and diplomatic efforts**: The international community's pressure on Israel to engage in negotiations and secure the release of hostages could lead to a quick resolution. (Strength: 4)
2. **Previous hostage exchanges**: Israel has engaged in previous hostage exchanges with Hamas, suggesting that they are willing to negotiate under the right circumstances. (Strength: 3)
3. **Humanitarian concerns**: The humanitarian situation of the hostages and their families might lead to a sense of urgency and a desire to resolve the situation quickly. (Strength: 3)
4. **Military considerations**: Israel might assess that a quick resolution is necessary to minimize the risk of further violence and to prevent the hostages from being used as human shields. (Strength: 2)
5. **Economic considerations**: A prolonged hostage situation could have significant economic costs for Israel, including the impact on trade and tourism. A quick resolution might be seen as a way to minimize these costs. (Strength: 2)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, I would argue that the answer is more likely to be "no" due to Hamas's history of holding onto hostages, Israel's reluctance to negotiate with Hamas, and security concerns. However, the international pressure, previous hostage exchanges, and humanitarian concerns might contribute to a resolution. I would rate the likelihood of a resolution before 9 April 2024 as 40%.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of the calculated probability:

The calculated probability seems reasonable, but it might be too low given the international pressure and previous hostage exchanges. The base rate of hostage exchanges between Israel and Hamas is not particularly high, but it's not zero either. The calculated probability should be adjusted to reflect this.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the next Speaker of the US House of Representatives be elected with votes from both Republicans and Democrats in the upcoming Speaker election, which is expected to take place on or before October 25, 2023? Given the current situation, where Republicans are exploring various paths to elect a new Speaker, it is essential to consider the potential outcomes of this election. The question remains open-ended, and the outcome will be determined by the votes of the members of the House of Representatives, with each party's representatives required to vote for their preferred candidate.

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. **Party-line voting**: Historically, Speaker elections often follow party lines, with members from each party voting for their party's preferred candidate. This suggests that the outcome might be influenced by party loyalty rather than bipartisan support. (Strength: 4)
2. **Partisan divisions**: The current political climate in the US is characterized by deep partisan divisions, which might make it challenging for Republicans and Democrats to come together and support a candidate from the opposing party. (Strength: 4)
3. **Lack of incentives for bipartisanship**: In the current Speaker election, each party is focused on electing their preferred candidate, which might not create an environment conducive to bipartisan cooperation. (Strength: 3)
4. **Potential for a minority party leader**: If a significant number of Republicans defect from their party's preferred candidate, it's possible that the Speaker could be elected with votes from a single party. However, this would require a significant number of defections, which is uncertain. (Strength: 2)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. **Bipartisan efforts to resolve the Speaker crisis**: Some members, including Representative Hakeem Jeffries, have expressed interest in finding a bipartisan solution to the Speaker election. This suggests that there might be a willingness to work across party lines. (Strength: 4)
2. **Need for stability and cooperation**: The ongoing Speaker crisis has led to a delay in the start of the new legislative session, and a bipartisan solution could provide much-needed stability and cooperation in the House. (Strength: 4)
3. **Potential for a compromise candidate**: If a compromise candidate emerges who is acceptable to both parties, it's possible that they could be elected with bipartisan support. (Strength: 3)
4. **Historical precedent**: While Speaker elections often follow party lines, there have been instances of bipartisan support for Speaker candidates in the past. (Strength: 2)

Aggregated considerations: Considering the reasons above, it seems that the likelihood of a bipartisan Speaker election is uncertain. While there are valid reasons to believe that the outcome might be influenced by party loyalty and partisan divisions, there are also indications that some members are open to finding a bipartisan solution. The need for stability and cooperation in the House might also encourage bipartisan cooperation.

Initial probability: 30

Evaluation of the initial probability: The initial probability of 30 seems relatively low, given the potential for bipartisan efforts to resolve the Speaker crisis. However, considering the historical trend of party-line voting and the current partisan divisions, it's not unreasonable to start with a relatively low probability.

Final consideration: The base rate of bipartisan cooperation in the US Congress is relatively low, which might affect the forecast. However, the specific context of the Speaker election and the efforts of some members to find a bipartisan solution might increase the likelihood of a bipartisan outcome.

Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the US civilian labor force participation rate in December 2023 be higher than it was in October 2023, considering the long-term trend of declining labor force participation rates since the beginning of the 21st century? This question will be evaluated using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, once the December 2023 figures are released in January 2024.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-10, where 1 is a weak reason and 10 is a strong reason):
- The labor force participation rate has been trending down since the beginning of the 21st century, which might indicate a continued decline in the coming months. (Strength: 8)
- Economic uncertainty, such as ongoing inflation concerns and potential recession risks, might discourage people from entering or re-entering the labor force. (Strength: 6)
- The labor market might be experiencing a natural slowdown due to the business cycle, which could lead to a decrease in labor force participation. (Strength: 5)
- The aging population and potential retirement of baby boomers might contribute to a decline in labor force participation. (Strength: 8)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-10, where 1 is a weak reason and 10 is a strong reason):
- The labor market might experience a rebound or stabilization in the coming months, potentially leading to an increase in labor force participation. (Strength: 4)
- Government policies or programs aimed at supporting workforce development and re-entry might lead to an increase in labor force participation. (Strength: 3)
- A strong job market with low unemployment rates might encourage people to re-enter the labor force. (Strength: 7)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the long-term trend of declining labor force participation rates and the potential economic and demographic factors contributing to this trend, it seems more likely that the labor force participation rate will continue to decline. However, there are some potential factors that could lead to a stabilization or increase in labor force participation. Overall, the evidence suggests that the answer is more likely to be no.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the initial probability to be around 60.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident. Considering the uncertainty surrounding the labor market and the potential for unexpected events, a more conservative approach might be warranted. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of the labor force participation rate being higher in December 2023 than in October 2023) is not explicitly known, but it can be assumed to be around 50% (i.e., a coin flip). This might suggest that the initial probability should be adjusted downward.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Before 15 January 2024, will a US court or state-level electoral authority announce that Donald Trump is ineligible to become president pursuant to Section 3 of the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution due to his actions on 6 January 2021 in Washington, DC? For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state, and a ruling in either a state or federal court would count. The consideration of appeals and subsequent litigation is immaterial, and the focus is solely on the initial ruling or announcement. This question will be resolved based on the occurrence or non-occurrence of the event before the specified deadline.

Reasons why the answer might be no (rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Courts are generally cautious in their decisions**: The judiciary tends to exercise restraint when interpreting the Constitution, especially when it comes to disqualifying a major party candidate. (Strength: 3)
2. **Section 3's application is complex**: The 14th Amendment's Section 3 has been rarely invoked in US history, and its application to Trump's actions on 6 January 2021 is not straightforward. (Strength: 4)
3. **Trump's supporters and allies might challenge the ruling**: Trump has a large and dedicated base, and they might challenge any ruling that declares him ineligible. This could lead to appeals and delays. (Strength: 2)
4. **The courts might prioritize other issues**: The courts may have other pressing cases and might not prioritize the Section 3 issue, potentially delaying a ruling. (Strength: 3)
5. **There might be a lack of clear evidence**: The courts might struggle to find clear evidence of Trump's involvement in an "insurrection or rebellion" on 6 January 2021. (Strength: 4)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Section 3's broad language**: The 14th Amendment's Section 3 explicitly states that individuals who engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the US are ineligible for federal or state office. (Strength: 5)
2. **Trump's involvement in the 6 January 2021 events**: Trump has been accused of inciting the mob that stormed the US Capitol on 6 January 2021, which could be seen as an insurrection or rebellion. (Strength: 4)
3. **The growing momentum for Section 3 applications**: There is increasing momentum among Democrats and some Republicans to apply Section 3 to Trump, which could lead to a court or electoral authority ruling in favor of ineligibility. (Strength: 4)
4. **The courts might be more willing to take on Trump**: After the 2020 election and the 6 January 2021 events, the courts might be more willing to take on Trump and his actions. (Strength: 3)
5. **The potential for a court-ordered ruling**: A court could order a ruling on Trump's eligibility, even if it's not a voluntary decision by a state-level electoral authority. (Strength: 5)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I weigh the strength of each point. The "yes" reasons seem more compelling, particularly the broad language of Section 3 and Trump's involvement in the 6 January 2021 events. However, the "no" reasons, such as the courts' caution and potential delays, also carry significant weight.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of the initial probability:

The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the complexity of the issue and the potential for both sides to present strong arguments. However, it may be too cautious, as the "yes" reasons seem more compelling. Considering the base rate of the event, it's essential to note that this is a unique situation, and there is no clear precedent for applying Section 3 to a major party candidate.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the administrative services building in Bakhmut, Ukraine, located at Myru St, 44, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500, be under Ukrainian control on 8 August 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War's interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which is the primary source of information for determining the outcome of this question? The outcome will be determined based on the location identified by the interactive map, regardless of whether the building is damaged or destroyed. The question does not consider the extent of the damage to the building, and "Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives" will be counted as a factor in determining the outcome.

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 6/10):
1. The ongoing fighting in Bakhmut (strength: 8/10): The city is a key location in the Donetsk region, and the fighting there is intense, which increases the likelihood that the administrative services building might be under Russian or separatist control.
2. Russian and separatist forces' presence in Bakhmut (strength: 7/10): Chechen leaders have deployed special forces in Bakhmut, indicating a significant Russian presence in the area, which could lead to the administrative services building being under Russian or separatist control.
3. Difficulty in retaking the city (strength: 5/10): The city has been a focal point of the conflict, and retaking it might be challenging for Ukrainian forces, which could lead to the administrative services building remaining under Russian or separatist control.

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 8/10):
1. Ukrainian counteroffensives (strength: 9/10): The question specifies that "Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives" will be counted as a factor in determining the outcome, which suggests that Ukrainian forces are actively working to retake the city and the administrative services building.
2. Ukrainian control of surrounding areas (strength: 6/10): If Ukrainian forces have control of surrounding areas, it increases the likelihood that they will be able to retake the administrative services building in Bakhmut.
3. ISW's map as a reliable source (strength: 5/10): The Institute for the Study of War's interactive map is a reliable source of information, and its data might indicate that the administrative services building is under Ukrainian control.

Aggregated considerations: Considering the ongoing fighting in Bakhmut, the Russian and separatist presence, and the difficulty in retaking the city, there is a moderate risk that the administrative services building might be under Russian or separatist control. However, the fact that Ukrainian counteroffensives are being conducted and the ISW's map is a reliable source suggest that there is a reasonable chance that the building will be under Ukrainian control.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of the initial probability: The initial probability of 40 seems reasonable, considering the moderate risk of the building being under Russian or separatist control and the potential for Ukrainian counteroffensives. However, this probability might be too low, given the ongoing Ukrainian efforts to retake the city. The base rate of the event is not directly relevant in this case, as the outcome is specific to the administrative services building in Bakhmut.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the film "Barbie" win more Golden Globes than the film "Oppenheimer" at the 2024 Golden Globes ceremony, which is scheduled to take place on January 7, 2024, given that "Barbie" has received the most Golden Globe nominations with nine, including three in the same category of Best Original Song - Motion Picture, while "Oppenheimer" has received eight nominations?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- **Reason 1: Competition in categories** (Strength: 6/10): While "Barbie" has more nominations, "Oppenheimer" might have a stronger presence in other categories, such as acting or directing, which could result in more wins.
- **Reason 2: Historical trends** (Strength: 5/10): Historically, the Golden Globes have been unpredictable, and the number of nominations does not always translate to wins. This unpredictability could work against "Barbie" despite its higher number of nominations.
- **Reason 3: Industry recognition** (Strength: 4/10): "Oppenheimer" might receive more recognition from the film industry, which could lead to more wins at the Golden Globes.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- **Reason 1: More nominations often translate to more wins** (Strength: 8/10): Typically, the film with more nominations has a higher chance of winning more awards, as it indicates a stronger presence in multiple categories.
- **Reason 2: "Barbie" has a strong presence in a key category** (Strength: 9/10): With three nominations in the same category of Best Original Song - Motion Picture, "Barbie" has a strong chance of winning in this category, which could give it an edge over "Oppenheimer".
- **Reason 3: The film with more nominations often receives more votes** (Strength: 7/10): Given that the Golden Globes voting process involves a large number of voters, the film with more nominations is likely to receive more votes overall.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the above points, the reasons why the answer might be yes seem more compelling, especially given the strong presence of "Barbie" in the Best Original Song - Motion Picture category. However, the unpredictability of the Golden Globes and the potential for "Oppenheimer" to perform well in other categories cannot be ignored.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially predict that "Barbie" will win more Golden Globes than "Oppenheimer" with a probability of 65.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 65 seems reasonable given the information provided. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the potential strength of "Oppenheimer" in other categories. A more cautious approach might be to lower the probability to 55.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the US impose new export restrictions on Nvidia's current A800 microchips to Chinese entities or China without a license before November 10, 2023, as reported by the Wall Street Journal in June 2023? For the purposes of this question, "Chinese entities" refers to those listed on the Entity List maintained by the US Commerce Department, specifically those from the "CHINA, PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF" category. "Current A800 microchips" are those with specifications as of the launch of this question, which can be found on VideoCardz. The restrictions will be considered imposed upon the effective date of a rule published by the US government, similar to the example provided by the Bureau of Industry and Security's Press Release on October 7, 2022. This question will be answered based on the information available up to November 10, 2023.

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. The US government might not find it necessary to impose new restrictions on Nvidia's A800 microchips, considering the existing export controls and regulations in place. (Strength: 2)
2. The US and China might be engaged in diplomatic efforts to resolve trade and technology transfer issues, which could lead to a delay or cancellation of new restrictions. (Strength: 3)
3. Nvidia and other US companies might be working with the US government to develop new export control mechanisms that do not involve an outright ban on A800 microchips to Chinese entities. (Strength: 2)
4. The US government might prioritize other trade and national security concerns over restricting the export of A800 microchips to China. (Strength: 4)
5. There might be technical or logistical challenges in implementing new export restrictions, which could lead to a delay or cancellation of the planned restrictions. (Strength: 2)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. The US government has a history of imposing export restrictions on Chinese entities, and the A800 microchips are considered critical for China's AI development. (Strength: 5)
2. The US government might view the export of A800 microchips as a national security risk, given their potential use in advanced AI applications. (Strength: 4)
3. The US government might be concerned about the potential for A800 microchips to be used in military or surveillance applications in China. (Strength: 4)
4. The US government might be under pressure from Congress or other stakeholders to take a stronger stance on export controls to China. (Strength: 3)
5. The US government has been increasing its scrutiny of Chinese companies and individuals involved in AI and technology development, which could lead to new export restrictions. (Strength: 4)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, I believe that the US government is likely to impose new export restrictions on Nvidia's current A800 microchips to Chinese entities or China without a license before November 10, 2023. The strong reasons in favor of imposing restrictions (reasons 1-5) outweigh the weaker reasons against imposing restrictions (reasons 1-5). However, I will take into account the complexity of the issue and the potential for diplomatic efforts to resolve trade and technology transfer issues.

Initial probability: 70

Evaluation of initial probability:

My initial probability of 70 seems reasonable, considering the strong reasons in favor of imposing restrictions. However, I might be underestimating the potential for diplomatic efforts to resolve trade and technology transfer issues. Additionally, the base rate of the US imposing export restrictions on Chinese entities is relatively high, which could affect the confidence in my prediction.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the United States publicly acknowledge that it executed a military strike from the air or sea against a ground target within the territory of Yemen before 1 March 2024, where the strike was a deliberate action and not the result of stray bullets or ordinance, and the target was located on land rather than in territorial waters? Both the strike and acknowledgement must occur during the question's open period, which ends on 1 March 2024.

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Historical precedent of secrecy**: The US government has a history of not publicly acknowledging military operations, especially in sensitive or controversial regions. (Strength: 4)
2. **Diplomatic considerations**: Acknowledging a military strike in Yemen might strain relations with Iran, which supports the Houthi forces, and potentially escalate tensions in the region. (Strength: 3)
3. **Operational security concerns**: Publicly acknowledging a military strike might reveal sensitive information about US military capabilities and tactics. (Strength: 4)
4. **Limited public interest**: The US public may not be aware of or interested in the specifics of military operations in Yemen, reducing pressure for the government to acknowledge the strike. (Strength: 2)
5. **Lack of clear evidence**: Without concrete evidence, it's possible that the US might not publicly acknowledge the strike even if it occurred. (Strength: 3)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Increased transparency in US military operations**: In recent years, the US has made efforts to increase transparency in its military operations, which might lead to more public acknowledgement of strikes. (Strength: 3)
2. **Growing public scrutiny**: The increasing use of social media and other digital platforms has made it more difficult for the US government to keep military operations secret. (Strength: 4)
3. **Need for accountability**: Publicly acknowledging military strikes can help the US government demonstrate accountability and adherence to international law. (Strength: 2)
4. **Growing tensions in the region**: The ongoing conflict in Yemen and the presence of Iranian-backed Houthi forces might lead to increased US military involvement, making it more likely for the US to publicly acknowledge a strike. (Strength: 4)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the historical precedent of secrecy, diplomatic considerations, and operational security concerns, it's likely that the US government might not publicly acknowledge a military strike in Yemen. However, the increasing transparency in US military operations, growing public scrutiny, and need for accountability might counterbalance these factors. The strength of the reasons for a "no" answer seems slightly higher than the reasons for a "yes" answer.

Initial probability: 30

Evaluation of the calculated probability:

The initial probability of 30 seems not confident enough, given the strength of the reasons for a "yes" answer. The increasing transparency in US military operations and growing public scrutiny might lead to a higher probability of public acknowledgement. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a military strike occurring in Yemen), it's difficult to estimate, but it's likely higher than 0. The base rate might be influenced by the ongoing conflict in Yemen and the presence of Iranian-backed Houthi forces.

Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Egypt officially allow Palestinian refugees from the Gaza Strip, who are not foreign nationals of a UN member state, to enter the country and potentially continue their journey to another location before November 20, 2023? This question excludes individualized circumstances, such as medical evacuations, and requires evidence that Palestinians have actually crossed into Egypt. The answer will be considered a 'yes' if there is a formal announcement from the Egyptian government or other credible sources indicating that the country will open its border for Palestinian refugees to enter and potentially continue their journey.

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 8/10):

1. **Historical opposition to allowing Palestinian refugees**: Egypt has historically been cautious about allowing Palestinian refugees to enter the country, and has expressed opposition to allowing them to enter Sinai, as reported by Voice of America. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Security concerns**: Egypt may have security concerns about allowing Palestinian refugees into the country, given the potential for instability and the presence of extremist groups in the region. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Economic and social pressures**: Egypt may be hesitant to take on the economic and social burdens associated with hosting a large influx of refugees. (Strength: 6/10)
4. **Diplomatic relations with other countries**: Egypt may be hesitant to take a stance that could strain its diplomatic relations with other countries, particularly Israel, with which it has a peace treaty. (Strength: 5/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 6/10):

1. **International pressure**: The international community, including the United Nations and other countries, may be exerting pressure on Egypt to allow Palestinian refugees to enter the country. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Humanitarian concerns**: The humanitarian situation in Gaza is dire, and allowing refugees to enter Egypt could be seen as a humanitarian gesture. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Egypt's role as a regional leader**: As a regional leader, Egypt may feel a sense of responsibility to take a more active role in addressing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. (Strength: 4/10)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, I would rate the likelihood of Egypt officially allowing Palestinian refugees from the Gaza Strip to enter the country before November 20, 2023, as follows:

* Historical opposition and security concerns weigh heavily against a 'yes' answer.
* International pressure and humanitarian concerns may push in the direction of a 'yes' answer, but these factors are not as strong as the opposing factors.
* Egypt's role as a regional leader may also contribute to a 'yes' answer, but this factor is relatively weak.

Initial probability: 20

Evaluation of initial probability:

The initial probability of 20 seems too low, given the humanitarian concerns and international pressure that may be exerted on Egypt. However, the historical opposition and security concerns from Egypt may still be significant factors to consider.

Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: 

Will American journalist Evan Gershkovich, who was arrested in Russia on 29 March 2023 for espionage, be released from Russia and leave the country before 1 January 2024, given that US officials have been discussing a possible prisoner exchange with Russia?

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Russian government's stance on espionage charges**: The Russian government has been adamant in its stance on espionage charges, and it may be unwilling to release Gershkovich without a significant concession from the US. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Lack of a clear prisoner exchange agreement**: While US officials have discussed a possible prisoner exchange, there is no clear indication that an agreement has been reached. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Russian government's history of detainment and trial**: The Russian government has been known to detain and try foreign nationals on espionage charges, and it may be willing to drag out the process to make a point. (Strength: 4/10)
4. **International relations between the US and Russia**: The current state of US-Russia relations is tense, which may make it more difficult to secure a prisoner exchange. (Strength: 6/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **US-Russia prisoner exchange discussions**: The fact that US officials have been discussing a possible prisoner exchange suggests that there is some momentum towards a resolution. (Strength: 7/10)
2. **US government's commitment to bring Gershkovich home**: The Biden administration has publicly stated its commitment to bringing Gershkovich home, which may increase the pressure on Russia to release him. (Strength: 8/10)
3. **International pressure and diplomatic efforts**: The international community may put pressure on Russia to release Gershkovich, and diplomatic efforts may be underway to secure his release. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Potential for a deal to be reached before 1 January 2024**: Given the discussions between the US and Russia, it is possible that a deal could be reached before the end of the year. (Strength: 6/10)

Aggregated considerations: Considering the reasons above, I would rate the likelihood of Gershkovich leaving Russia before 1 January 2024 as follows: the reasons for a "yes" outcome are stronger, but the reasons for a "no" outcome are still significant. I would assign a weight of 60% to the "yes" reasons and 40% to the "no" reasons.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of initial probability: My initial probability of 60 may be excessively confident, as there are many variables at play and the situation is still uncertain. I may have overestimated the strength of the "yes" reasons and underestimated the complexity of the situation.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the United States publicly acknowledge that it has executed a military strike within the territory of the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, or the West Bank before October 30, 2023? The US announcement of sending naval forces to the Eastern Mediterranean following Hamas' attack in southern Israel in early October 2023 does not guarantee a military strike, and the US would need to publicly acknowledge such an action. The definition of a military strike includes any weapon detonating or discharging on or over the specified territories, excluding cyberattacks. A strike in or over Gazan or Lebanese airspace or territorial waters would also count. The question does not consider the severity or implications of the strike, only the public acknowledgment of its occurrence.

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Historical precedent**: The US has not always publicly acknowledged its military actions, especially when they involve sensitive or controversial targets. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Classification and secrecy**: Military operations often involve classified information, and the US might choose to keep the strike classified to maintain operational security or avoid public backlash. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Diplomatic considerations**: Acknowledging a military strike could strain relationships with regional actors, particularly if the strike is seen as aggressive or provocative. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Limited information**: The question is based on a specific time frame and limited context, and there may be factors not considered in this analysis that could influence the US decision to acknowledge a strike. (Strength: 4/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Escalating tensions**: The US has already announced a military response to the Hamas attack, and a strike could be seen as a natural progression of this escalation. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Public pressure**: The US might feel pressure to be transparent about its actions, especially if the strike is seen as a necessary response to a legitimate security threat. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **International obligations**: The US has a commitment to transparency and accountability in its military actions, and acknowledging a strike could be seen as a way to maintain credibility and trust with international partners. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Operational necessity**: In the event of a military strike, the US might need to acknowledge the action to provide context and justification for the operation, as well as to inform its allies and adversaries. (Strength: 8/10)

Aggregated considerations:

The reasons in favor of the US publicly acknowledging a military strike (8/10 + 6/10 + 5/10 + 8/10 = 27/40) are slightly stronger than those against it (6/10 + 7/10 + 5/10 + 4/10 = 22/40). However, the strength of these reasons is not overwhelming, and there are valid concerns about classification, secrecy, and diplomatic considerations.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of confidence:

The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the mixed considerations. However, it may be too low, as the reasons in favor of acknowledgment are slightly stronger. Considering the base rate of the event, it's difficult to estimate, as there is no clear precedent for the US publicly acknowledging a military strike in this context. However, the US has a history of transparency in its military actions, which might suggest a higher probability of acknowledgment.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the jury find Sam Bankman-Fried guilty of any federal crime in his trial that began on 3 October 2023, before the question closes on 2 November 2023? A guilty or no contest plea without a verdict from the jury would not count. If the judge declares a mistrial or dismisses the charges, the question would close "No." The granting of a motion for a judgment of acquittal after the jury reaches a verdict would be immaterial, and appeals and litigation subsequent to a trial are immaterial. If the trial is still underway as of the closing date of this question, the closing date will be extended.

Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strongest to weakest):

1. **Strong: The prosecution has to prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt**. The burden of proof lies with the prosecution, and they will need to provide sufficient evidence to convince the jury of Sam Bankman-Fried's guilt. If they fail to do so, the jury might return a not-guilty verdict. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **The defense might raise reasonable doubt through effective cross-examination**. The defense team might be able to challenge the prosecution's evidence and raise reasonable doubt in the minds of the jurors, leading to an acquittal. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **The jury might be swayed by sympathy or public opinion**. The jury might be influenced by public opinion or sympathy for Sam Bankman-Fried, which could lead to a not-guilty verdict. (Strength: 4/10)
4. **The trial might be delayed or adjourned**. If the trial is delayed or adjourned, it could potentially impact the timing of the verdict, and the question might close before a verdict is reached. (Strength: 3/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strongest to weakest):

1. **The prosecution has a strong case against Sam Bankman-Fried**. The prosecution has already presented several charges against Sam Bankman-Fried, and they might have sufficient evidence to prove his guilt. (Strength: 9/10)
2. **The defense team might struggle to present an effective defense**. The defense team might not be able to effectively challenge the prosecution's evidence, making it more likely for the jury to return a guilty verdict. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **The public perception of Sam Bankman-Fried is negative**. The public perception of Sam Bankman-Fried is already negative due to the FTX scandal, which could influence the jury's decision. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **The prosecution has a strong track record of success**. The prosecution has a reputation for being effective in high-profile cases, which could increase the likelihood of a guilty verdict. (Strength: 4/10)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, I believe that the prosecution has a strong case against Sam Bankman-Fried, and the defense team might struggle to present an effective defense. However, the burden of proof lies with the prosecution, and the defense might be able to raise reasonable doubt through effective cross-examination. The public perception of Sam Bankman-Fried is also a factor, but it's difficult to quantify its impact on the jury's decision.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of initial probability:

My initial probability of 60 seems relatively conservative, considering the strength of the prosecution's case. However, the burden of proof and the potential for reasonable doubt to be raised by the defense team should not be underestimated. I might be underestimating the effectiveness of the defense team or the potential for the jury to be swayed by sympathy or public opinion.

Final prediction: *0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: Will the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) authorize SpaceX to launch a third flight of Starship Super Heavy before January 1, 2024, given that Elon Musk has stated they could be ready for the third test within three to four weeks after the second successful, though not completely successful, test on November 18, 2023, and considering the FAA's license authorization for the second flight was given on November 15, 2023?

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Regulatory hurdles**: The FAA might not be satisfied with the results of the second test, potentially leading to additional review and delays in authorizing the third flight. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Safety concerns**: The FAA might identify new safety concerns or issues with the Starship design, requiring additional modifications or testing before authorization. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Changes in FAA priorities or policies**: The FAA's priorities or policies might shift, causing them to reevaluate their approval process for the Starship program. (Strength: 4/10)
4. **Technical issues**: SpaceX might encounter unforeseen technical difficulties that would prevent them from meeting the desired timeline for the third flight. (Strength: 7/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Elon Musk's optimistic timeline**: Elon Musk has stated that they could be ready for the third test within three to four weeks, indicating a high level of confidence in their preparations. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **FAA's previous approval**: The FAA authorized the second flight on November 15, 2023, suggesting they are moving forward with the Starship program. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **SpaceX's experience and progress**: SpaceX has made significant progress with the Starship program, and their experience with previous launches and tests might enable them to meet the desired timeline. (Strength: 6/10)
4. **Industry pressure and competition**: The private space industry is highly competitive, and SpaceX might face pressure to meet their timeline to maintain their lead and stay ahead of competitors. (Strength: 5/10)

Aggregated considerations: Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I weigh the strengths of each argument. The most significant factors are Elon Musk's optimistic timeline and the FAA's previous approval, which suggest a "yes" answer. However, regulatory hurdles, safety concerns, and technical issues might slow down the process, leaning towards a "no" answer. I also consider the base rate of the event, which is difficult to estimate without more information.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of confidence: My initial probability of 60 might be considered not confident enough, given the optimistic tone of Elon Musk's statement and the FAA's previous approval. However, I have to consider the potential risks and challenges involved in the authorization process.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the US office vacancy rate in the third quarter of 2023 be 16.5% or higher, as reported by Colliers, exceeding the previous peak of 16.3% during the global financial crisis, given the current market downturn? This question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using US office vacancy data as first reported by Colliers in the fourth quarter of 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reason 1: Market correction: The office market downturn might lead to a stabilization or slight improvement in vacancy rates, potentially preventing the rate from reaching 16.5% or higher. (Strength: 4/10)
- Reason 2: Government policies and incentives: Governments might implement policies or incentives to boost the office market, such as tax breaks or subsidies for businesses, which could lead to a decrease in vacancy rates. (Strength: 3/10)
- Reason 3: Shift to remote work: The shift to remote work might continue, reducing the demand for office space and potentially lowering vacancy rates. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Reason 1: Continued market downturn: The office market downturn might worsen, leading to increased vacancy rates as businesses struggle to maintain or expand their office spaces. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: Economic uncertainty: Economic uncertainty, such as rising interest rates or recession fears, could lead to a decrease in business confidence and investment in office spaces, contributing to higher vacancy rates. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: Limited new supply: The supply of new office spaces might be limited, allowing existing vacancy rates to rise as the existing supply is not enough to meet the demand. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the strength of each reason, it seems that the factors pointing to a higher vacancy rate (Reasons 1 and 2 in both sections) have a stronger impact. The factors pointing to a lower vacancy rate (Reasons 1 and 3 in the "no" section) have a relatively weaker impact.

5. Initial probability: Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be 70.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability: The initial probability seems to be moderately confident, but it might be overly optimistic given the complexity of the office market and the potential for unexpected events. However, it's also essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is not explicitly provided. Assuming a neutral base rate, the initial probability seems reasonable.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will any territory in Crimea that was under Russian control before 24 February 2022 cease to be under "Assessed Russian Control" according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map before 15 December 2023? Given the ongoing war in Ukraine, will there be any changes in the control status of Crimea's territory as per the ISW's interactive map before the specified deadline? The question focuses on the potential changes in control status within the time frame, considering the current conflict and the map data provided by the ISW.

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 8/10):
1. **Stability of Russian control**: Russia has maintained control over Crimea since 2014, and there is no indication that this control will be relinquished anytime soon. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Ukraine's military focus**: Ukraine's military efforts are primarily focused on the Donbas region and other areas of Ukraine, rather than Crimea. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Russian military presence**: Russia has a significant military presence in Crimea, which would make it difficult for Ukraine to retake the territory. (Strength: 8/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 4/10):
1. **Ukrainian counterattack**: Although unlikely, a successful Ukrainian counterattack could potentially lead to changes in control status. (Strength: 4/10)
2. **International pressure**: International pressure on Russia to relinquish control over Crimea could lead to changes in the situation. (Strength: 3/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the stability of Russian control, the focus of Ukraine's military efforts, and the significant Russian military presence in Crimea, it is unlikely that any territory in Crimea will cease to be under "Assessed Russian Control" before 15 December 2023. However, the possibility of a Ukrainian counterattack or international pressure cannot be ruled out entirely.

Initial probability: 92

Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability of 92 seems excessively confident, considering the complexity of the situation and the potential for unexpected events. It is essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is the likelihood of any territory changing control status in Crimea. This base rate is likely low, given the stability of Russian control.

Final prediction: *0.7*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the government of Belarus publicly acknowledge or officially confirm that its armed forces have engaged in armed fighting in Ukraine (including the internationally recognized boundaries of Ukraine, such as Donbas and Crimea) before October 21, 2023? This includes any situation where Belarusian troops are placed under the command of the Belarusian government and are subsequently involved in combat operations in Ukraine. This does not include scenarios where Belarusian citizens or members of the Belarusian armed forces may have volunteered to fight in a Russian or Ukrainian military unit under their respective commands, as this would not be an official acknowledgement by the Belarusian government.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Lukashenko's cautious approach** (Strength: 8/10): Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has been cautious in his involvement in the conflict, and publicly declaring involvement could be seen as a significant escalation. This might lead him to avoid making such an announcement.
- **Reason 2: International pressure and sanctions** (Strength: 7/10): Belarus might be hesitant to announce involvement in the conflict due to potential international backlash, including economic sanctions, which could harm the country's economy.
- **Reason 3: Belarus's role as a buffer state** (Strength: 6/10): Belarus might prefer to maintain its position as a neutral or buffer state between Russia and the West, and publicly acknowledging involvement in the conflict could jeopardize this status.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Growing Russian influence** (Strength: 9/10): Belarus has been increasingly aligned with Russia, and it's possible that the Belarusian government might feel pressure from Russia to publicly acknowledge involvement in the conflict to demonstrate solidarity.
- **Reason 2: Belarusian troops already present in Ukraine** (Strength: 8/10): There have been reports of Belarusian troops being present in Ukraine, and if these troops are involved in combat operations, it's possible that the Belarusian government might eventually acknowledge this to avoid further scrutiny.
- **Reason 3: Domestic pressure and propaganda** (Strength: 6/10): The Belarusian government might feel pressure from domestic sources, including propaganda efforts, to demonstrate strength and patriotism, which could lead to a public acknowledgement of involvement in the conflict.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the most significant factors influencing the likelihood of the Belarusian government acknowledging involvement in the conflict are Lukashenko's cautious approach and the potential consequences of international pressure and sanctions. However, the growing Russian influence and the presence of Belarusian troops in Ukraine might counterbalance these factors. Given these considerations, it's likely that the Belarusian government will avoid publicly acknowledging involvement in the conflict, at least for now.

5. Initial probability:
60

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the mixed factors at play. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is relatively low, as Belarus has not publicly acknowledged involvement in the conflict thus far. This might suggest that the probability should be adjusted downward.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will SpaceX's next Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before February 1, 2024, considering that SpaceX is still awaiting a license from the FAA, and a successful launch will be determined by a successful first-stage separation? Given the current status of preparations and the regulatory hurdles, what is the likelihood of the orbital flight test meeting this timeline?

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
1. Regulatory delays (Strength: 4): The FAA license is still pending, which might cause delays in the launch schedule. (Space.com, Spaceflight Now, CNN)
2. Technical issues (Strength: 3): Although SpaceX has completed stacking and is preparing for the test, there might be unforeseen technical issues that could push back the launch date.
3. Complexity of the mission (Strength: 4): The orbital flight test is a complex operation, and any unexpected challenges could lead to delays or cancellations.
4. Prior SpaceX Starship test history (Strength: 2): SpaceX has faced delays in its previous Starship tests, which might indicate a pattern of challenges in meeting timelines.

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
1. SpaceX's track record of innovation (Strength: 4): SpaceX has consistently demonstrated its ability to innovate and adapt, which might help overcome technical challenges.
2. Elon Musk's confidence (Strength: 3): Elon Musk has stated that the Starship is ready for its next test, which suggests a high level of confidence in the mission's readiness.
3. Preparation and rehearsal (Strength: 4): SpaceX has been actively rehearsing and preparing for the test, which indicates a high level of readiness.
4. FAA's priority on commercial spaceflight (Strength: 3): The FAA has been working to streamline regulations for commercial spaceflight, which might help expedite the licensing process.

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the factors above, the likelihood of the orbital flight test meeting the February 1, 2024, timeline is uncertain. While SpaceX has demonstrated innovation and a high level of preparation, regulatory delays and the complexity of the mission pose significant challenges. The strength of the reasons for a successful launch is balanced by the strength of the reasons for a delayed or unsuccessful launch.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40% seems reasonable, given the balance of factors. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as it doesn't fully account for the FAA's priority on commercial spaceflight and SpaceX's track record of innovation.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the US House of Representatives officially open an impeachment inquiry into President Biden before January 1, 2024, as defined by either a vote by the full House to begin an impeachment inquiry or a public announcement by the Speaker of the House of Representatives that an impeachment inquiry has begun or is beginning, considering the reported consideration by House Republicans of opening an impeachment inquiry into President Biden and corruption claims related to family business dealings?

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. The Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, has stated that he won't open an impeachment inquiry without a House vote, which suggests that he may not be inclined to take such action without a clear mandate from the House (Strength: 4).
2. The impeachment process is complex and time-consuming, and opening an inquiry would require significant resources and effort from the House, which may be a deterrent (Strength: 3).
3. The Republican Party may not have a unified position on impeachment, which could make it difficult to pass a vote to open an inquiry (Strength: 2).
4. The public's attention may be focused on other issues, such as the economy or the upcoming 2024 presidential election, which could make impeachment less of a priority (Strength: 2).
5. The Biden administration may have taken steps to mitigate any potential corruption claims, which could reduce the likelihood of an impeachment inquiry (Strength: 1).

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. House Republicans have been vocal about their desire to investigate President Biden's family business dealings, and an impeachment inquiry could be a way to achieve that goal (Strength: 4).
2. The Republican Party may see impeachment as a way to gain an advantage in the 2024 presidential election, which could motivate them to take action (Strength: 4).
3. The Speaker of the House has the authority to initiate an impeachment inquiry without a vote, which means that he could potentially start the process without needing to wait for a vote (Strength: 3).
4. The House has the power to hold investigations and issue subpoenas, which could lead to the discovery of new evidence that could support an impeachment inquiry (Strength: 3).
5. Public opinion on impeachment is often unpredictable and can shift quickly, and there may be a segment of the public that is eager to see an impeachment inquiry (Strength: 2).

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I believe that the likelihood of the House opening an impeachment inquiry into President Biden before January 1, 2024, is relatively low. While there are some factors that suggest an inquiry is possible, such as the desire to investigate President Biden's family business dealings and the potential for political gain, there are also several factors that suggest it is unlikely, such as the complexity of the process, the lack of a unified Republican position, and the potential for public apathy.

Initial probability: 20

Evaluation of confidence:
My initial probability of 20 is relatively low, which reflects my assessment of the various factors that suggest an impeachment inquiry is unlikely. However, I may be underestimating the potential for an inquiry, as the Republican Party has been vocal about their desire to investigate President Biden, and impeachment can be a complex and unpredictable process.

Final prediction: *0.20*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.2
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will all work stoppages (either strikes or lockouts) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union and the "Big Three" US automakers (Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, which includes Chrysler) cease before 16 November 2023, given the current labor disputes and negotiations that began in September 2023 after the expiration of their collective bargaining agreements?

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Strength: 6/10**: The negotiations between the UAW and the Big Three US automakers have been ongoing for months, and there is a history of labor disputes leading to prolonged strikes. This could indicate that a resolution might not be reached before the deadline.
2. **Strength: 8/10**: The UAW has been pushing for significant wage and benefit increases, which could be a contentious issue for the automakers. If the two parties are unable to come to an agreement, a strike or lockout could continue beyond the deadline.
3. **Strength: 4/10**: The UAW has been facing internal conflicts and declining membership in recent years, which could impact their bargaining power and ability to reach a resolution.

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Strength: 9/10**: The Big Three US automakers have a strong incentive to resolve the dispute quickly, as a prolonged strike could lead to significant financial losses and damage to their reputation.
2. **Strength: 7/10**: The UAW and the automakers have a history of reaching agreements, and there may be a desire to avoid a prolonged conflict that could harm both parties.
3. **Strength: 5/10**: The US government has shown a willingness to intervene in labor disputes in the past, and it's possible that they could exert pressure on the parties to reach a resolution.

Aggregated considerations: 
Considering the reasons above, it seems that there are both strong arguments for and against the resolution of the labor dispute before 16 November 2023. However, the automakers' incentive to resolve the dispute quickly and the history of the UAW and automakers reaching agreements give me a slight edge to the "yes" side.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation: 
My initial probability of 60 might be too low, given the strong incentive for the automakers to resolve the dispute quickly. Additionally, the base rate of labor disputes being resolved in the auto industry is relatively high. Considering these factors, I might have been too cautious in my initial estimate.

Final prediction: *0.70*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for July 2023 be greater than 3.6% as reported by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in August 2023, considering the unemployment rate for June 2023 was 3.6% and new jobs came in lighter than expected in June 2023? The question will be suspended on August 4, 2023, and the outcome will be determined based on the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported in August 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The economy has shown resilience in recent months, with a slight decrease in the unemployment rate in June 2023 (Strength: 3).
- The labor market has been relatively strong, with low unemployment rates in the past (Strength: 4).
- The US economy has shown signs of slowing down, but it's not necessarily a guarantee that the unemployment rate will increase (Strength: 2).
- The unemployment rate has been volatile in the past, and a small increase is not uncommon (Strength: 3).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The jobs report for June 2023 showed new jobs came in lighter than expected, which could indicate a slowing economy (Strength: 4).
- The US economy has been showing signs of slowing down, which could lead to an increase in unemployment (Strength: 5).
- The June 2023 unemployment rate was already at 3.6%, which is relatively low, and a slight increase is possible (Strength: 3).
- The US economy is heavily dependent on consumer spending, and a decrease in consumer confidence could lead to an increase in unemployment (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the mixed signals from the economy, the resilience of the labor market, and the volatility of the unemployment rate, it's difficult to make a definitive prediction. However, the fact that new jobs came in lighter than expected in June 2023 and the US economy is showing signs of slowing down suggests that the unemployment rate might increase.

5. Initial probability:
60

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 60 is not excessively confident or not confident enough, as it reflects the mixed signals from the economy. However, it's worth considering the base rate of the event, which is that the unemployment rate is often subject to fluctuations. Additionally, the fact that the question is asking about a specific month (July 2023) adds an element of uncertainty.

7. Final prediction:
*0.57*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.57
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a winner of the 2023 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences have a faculty appointment at Harvard University or the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) when the prize is announced on 9 October 2023? A faculty appointment is defined as having a current or emeritus title, including affiliate faculty titles, at either institution. This question includes both current and past faculty appointments, as well as any current affiliations with either university.

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Lack of affiliation**: There are many economists with expertise in various fields of economics who do not have a faculty appointment at either Harvard or MIT. The pool of potential winners is vast, and it's possible that a winner might not have any affiliation with either institution. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Global presence of economic experts**: Economists from various countries and institutions worldwide are eligible for the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. A winner might not be affiliated with Harvard or MIT due to their global presence and expertise. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Recent winners' affiliations**: Not all recent Nobel Memorial Prize winners in Economic Sciences have been affiliated with Harvard or MIT. There might be a lack of a direct correlation between the prize and faculty appointments at these institutions. (Strength: 5/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Harvard and MIT's reputation and influence**: Both Harvard and MIT have a long history of producing Nobel Laureates among both faculty and graduates. The prestige and influence of these institutions might attract top economists, increasing the likelihood of a winner being affiliated with one of them. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Previous winners' affiliations**: Many past Nobel Memorial Prize winners in Economic Sciences have been affiliated with Harvard or MIT. This trend suggests a strong connection between the prize and faculty appointments at these institutions. (Strength: 9/10)
3. **Economic research and collaboration**: Harvard and MIT are renowned for their research centers and programs in economics, which might attract economists and foster collaborations that could lead to a Nobel Prize. (Strength: 7/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, I would weigh the strengths of each argument. The fact that Harvard and MIT have a long history of producing Nobel Laureates among both faculty and graduates, and the recent trend of past winners being affiliated with these institutions, suggests a strong connection between the prize and faculty appointments. However, the global presence of economic experts and the lack of direct correlation between the prize and faculty appointments at these institutions might mitigate this connection.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability of 60 seems reasonable, as it reflects the balance between the strengths of the arguments for both a yes and no answer. However, it might be considered not confident enough, given the strong reputation and influence of Harvard and MIT in the field of economics.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) invade Lebanon with ten or more tanks and/or armored vehicles before 13 December 2023, crossing the Blue Line and remaining in Lebanon for more than 36 hours, as reported by credible open-source media outlets? The IDF invasion will be considered confirmed when it is reported by multiple sources, and the question will be closed retroactively upon the start of the invasion.

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. **International diplomatic efforts**: The international community, including the United States, might engage in diplomatic efforts to prevent a conflict escalation, which could deter the IDF from invading Lebanon. (Strength: 4)
2. **Hezbollah's military capabilities**: Hezbollah is a well-armed and well-trained militia, and the IDF might be cautious about engaging in a conflict that could lead to significant casualties and a prolonged conflict. (Strength: 4)
3. **Economic considerations**: Invading Lebanon could lead to significant economic costs, including damage to infrastructure, loss of trade, and potential sanctions. (Strength: 3)
4. **IDF's current focus on Gaza**: The IDF is currently engaged in a conflict with Hamas in Gaza, and invading Lebanon might divert resources away from this conflict. (Strength: 3)
5. **UN presence in Lebanon**: The presence of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) might deter the IDF from invading, as it could lead to international condemnation and potential involvement of other countries. (Strength: 2)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. **Iran's involvement in Lebanon**: Iran's support for Hezbollah might lead to increased tensions between Israel and Lebanon, making an invasion more likely. (Strength: 5)
2. **IDF's military capabilities**: The IDF is a well-trained and well-equipped military, and it might see an invasion of Lebanon as an opportunity to demonstrate its capabilities. (Strength: 4)
3. **Escalation of the Gaza conflict**: The conflict with Hamas in Gaza might escalate, leading to a desire for the IDF to expand its military operations into Lebanon. (Strength: 4)
4. **IDF's security concerns**: The IDF might be concerned about Hezbollah's military capabilities and the potential threat it poses to Israel, leading to a desire to invade Lebanon. (Strength: 3)
5. **Domestic politics in Israel**: The Israeli government might see an invasion of Lebanon as a way to boost its popularity and demonstrate its commitment to national security. (Strength: 2)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the likelihood of the IDF invading Lebanon before 13 December 2023 is uncertain. However, the presence of Iran's involvement in Lebanon, the IDF's military capabilities, and the escalation of the Gaza conflict might make an invasion more likely. On the other hand, international diplomatic efforts, Hezbollah's military capabilities, and economic considerations might deter the IDF from invading.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation:
The calculated probability of 40 might be considered not confident enough, given the uncertainty surrounding the situation. However, it is also not excessively confident, as there are valid reasons on both sides of the argument. The base rate of the event is low, as the IDF has not invaded Lebanon in recent years.

Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the 28th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28), scheduled to be held from November 30, 2023, to December 12, 2023, in Dubai, UAE, result in an agreement that includes explicit language committing to phase out all fossil fuels for energy production by a specific date, adopted by consensus, where the specific date can be a fixed point in the future (e.g., a specific day, month, or year, or a fixed term such as within 50 years of this meeting)?

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

1. **Lack of previous commitments**: There has been no commitment to phase out all fossil fuels in previous COP agreements, indicating that countries may not be willing to take such a drastic step. (Strength: 4)
2. **Diverse interests and priorities**: Countries with significant fossil fuel reserves and industries may resist such a commitment, prioritizing economic and energy security concerns over climate goals. (Strength: 5)
3. **Technical and economic challenges**: Phasing out fossil fuels entirely by a specific date may be technically and economically challenging, particularly for countries with limited renewable energy infrastructure and resources. (Strength: 3)
4. **Negotiation dynamics**: The COP28 negotiations may be influenced by various factors, such as geopolitics, national interests, and lobby groups, which could hinder the adoption of a binding agreement. (Strength: 4)
5. **Limited international cooperation**: The global response to climate change is often hindered by a lack of international cooperation and trust among countries, making it difficult to achieve a consensus on a binding agreement. (Strength: 5)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

1. **Growing climate concerns**: The increasing awareness of climate change impacts and the need for urgent action may lead countries to adopt more ambitious commitments, including phasing out fossil fuels. (Strength: 4)
2. **Renewable energy advancements**: The cost and efficiency of renewable energy technologies have improved significantly, making them more viable alternatives to fossil fuels, which may encourage countries to phase out fossil fuels. (Strength: 4)
3. **Global momentum**: The COP28 may build on the momentum from previous climate agreements, such as the Paris Agreement, and the increasing number of countries transitioning away from fossil fuels. (Strength: 3)
4. **Youth activism and public pressure**: The growing climate movement and public awareness may influence governments to take more decisive action on climate change, including phasing out fossil fuels. (Strength: 3)
5. **Economic benefits**: Phasing out fossil fuels can have economic benefits, such as creating new job opportunities in the renewable energy sector and reducing healthcare costs associated with air pollution. (Strength: 2)

Aggregated considerations:

The reasons why the answer might be no are stronger than the reasons why it might be yes. The lack of previous commitments, diverse interests and priorities, technical and economic challenges, negotiation dynamics, and limited international cooperation all suggest that a binding agreement to phase out fossil fuels by a specific date may be difficult to achieve. However, the growing climate concerns, renewable energy advancements, global momentum, youth activism, and economic benefits may contribute to a more ambitious outcome.

Initial probability: 20

Evaluation:

The initial probability of 20 may be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully reflect the complexity of the issue and the various factors at play. The reasons why the answer might be no are significant, but the growing climate concerns and renewable energy advancements suggest that there is a possibility of a more ambitious agreement.

Final prediction: *0.30*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.3
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and expanded question:**
Will a United Nations (UN) member state, excluding the United States and the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), publicly acknowledge and confirm that it conducted a deliberate military strike from the air or sea against a ground target within the territory of Yemen before March 1, 2024? This question excludes any incidents where stray bullets or ordinance accidentally hit an unintended target and does not include targets in Yemen's territorial waters. The acknowledgment must occur within the specified time frame, from the current date (December 15, 2023) to January 12, 2024.

**Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):**

1. **Diplomatic considerations**: UN member states might avoid publicly acknowledging military actions that could be perceived as aggressive or provocative, especially in a sensitive region like the Middle East, to maintain good relations with other countries and avoid escalating tensions. (Strength: 4)
2. **Fear of repercussions**: Publicly acknowledging a military strike could lead to repercussions, such as criticism from other countries, international organizations, or non-state actors, which might deter UN member states from taking credit for the action. (Strength: 3)
3. **Deniability**: Some UN member states might prefer to deny involvement in military actions to maintain plausible deniability and avoid accountability for potential consequences. (Strength: 4)
4. **Limited involvement**: The conflict in Yemen is complex, and some UN member states might not be directly involved in military actions, making it less likely for them to publicly acknowledge a strike. (Strength: 2)
5. **International law and regulations**: The Geneva Conventions and other international laws governing military actions might influence UN member states to avoid publicly acknowledging strikes that could be seen as violating these regulations. (Strength: 2)

**Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):**

1. **Escalating conflict**: The ongoing conflict in Yemen might lead to increased military involvement from various countries, making it more likely for a UN member state to publicly acknowledge a strike. (Strength: 4)
2. **Regional alliances**: Some UN member states might be part of regional alliances or coalitions that could lead to increased military cooperation and, subsequently, a greater likelihood of publicly acknowledging a strike. (Strength: 3)
3. **Shift in international dynamics**: Changes in the international landscape, such as shifts in global power dynamics or the emergence of new alliances, could lead to increased military involvement and, consequently, a higher likelihood of publicly acknowledged strikes. (Strength: 2)
4. **Humanitarian concerns**: Some UN member states might publicly acknowledge a strike as a means to express concern about the humanitarian situation in Yemen or to justify their involvement in the conflict. (Strength: 2)
5. **Historical precedent**: There have been instances of UN member states publicly acknowledging military actions in the past, which could set a precedent for future actions. (Strength: 1)

**Aggregated considerations:**
Considering the reasons above, I weigh the likelihood of a UN member state (excluding the US and GCC members) publicly acknowledging a military strike in Yemen as follows:

The strength of reasons against publicly acknowledging a strike (4, 3, 4, 2, and 2) totals 15, while the strength of reasons for publicly acknowledging a strike (4, 3, 2, 2, and 1) totals 12. This suggests that there are more significant obstacles to publicly acknowledging a strike than there are incentives.

**Initial probability: 40**

**Evaluation and final thoughts:**
My initial probability might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the complexity of international relations and the potential for unexpected events. However, I do not want to overestimate the likelihood of a publicly acknowledged strike, given the strong reasons against it.

**Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the Supreme Court of Israel, in a future decision, outright strike down the 2023 amendment to Basic Law: The Judiciary regarding the "reasonableness" standard, which restricts the court's power to block government decisions on appointments and administrative matters, when hearing the scheduled challenges to the amendment on September 12, 2023, or any subsequent dates? The answer will be determined upon the handing down of the court's decision on the case or other final action, such as dismissal, by December 31, 2023. If the court does not reach a decision by this date, the question will be extended.

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Historical context of Israeli politics and judiciary**: The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has been pushing for judicial reforms, and this amendment is part of that effort. The government may have the support of a majority in the Knesset, which could lead to a more sympathetic court ruling. Strength: 6/10.
2. **Potential for a divided court**: The Supreme Court of Israel has a complex composition, with some justices being more conservative and others more liberal. A divided court might not be willing to strike down the amendment, especially if it means taking a stance against the government. Strength: 7/10.
3. **Lack of clear legal precedent**: The concept of "reasonableness" is not clearly defined in Israeli law, which might make it difficult for the court to strike down the amendment. Strength: 5/10.
4. **Government pressure and potential backlash**: The government might put pressure on the court to rule in its favor, and a strike-down decision could lead to a backlash against the court and its justices. Strength: 4/10.

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Constitutional concerns**: The amendment could be seen as undermining the separation of powers and the independence of the judiciary, which are fundamental principles of Israeli democracy. Strength: 8/10.
2. **International pressure and diplomatic implications**: The international community, including the United States, has expressed concerns about the amendment and its implications for Israeli democracy. This pressure might influence the court's decision. Strength: 7/10.
3. **Public opinion and civil society opposition**: There is significant opposition to the amendment among the Israeli public and civil society, which could lead to a more sympathetic court ruling. Strength: 6/10.
4. **Potential for a landmark decision**: The Supreme Court of Israel has a history of taking bold decisions on constitutional matters, and striking down the amendment could be seen as a landmark decision in defense of Israeli democracy. Strength: 8/10.

Aggregate considerations:

Considering the reasons above, I believe that the likelihood of the Supreme Court of Israel outright striking down the 2023 amendment to Basic Law: The Judiciary is moderate. While there are valid arguments on both sides, the potential for a divided court, lack of clear legal precedent, and government pressure weigh against a strike-down decision. However, the constitutional concerns, international pressure, public opinion, and potential for a landmark decision suggest that the court might be inclined to strike down the amendment.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation:

Upon further consideration, I realize that the initial probability might be too low. The international pressure, public opinion, and potential for a landmark decision suggest a stronger likelihood of a strike-down decision. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the frequency of the Supreme Court of Israel striking down laws or amendments) is not well-known, but it is likely higher than average, given the court's history of taking bold decisions on constitutional matters.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Country Garden, a major Chinese property developer, default on any bond payments before January 1, 2024, considering only defaults by its business segments or wholly-owned subsidiaries, and excluding any creditor-approved bond restructuring or grace periods that would delay payment?

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Country Garden's history of avoiding defaults**: Country Garden has been one of the few major property developers in China to have not defaulted on debt, indicating a strong ability to manage its finances. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Government support**: The Chinese government has been known to provide support to struggling state-owned enterprises, and while Country Garden is not state-owned, it may still receive some level of support or protection. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Potential for further bond extensions or restructuring**: Country Garden may be able to negotiate further extensions or restructuring of its bond payments, avoiding a default. (Strength: 7/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **High debt burden**: Country Garden has a significant amount of debt, which can be a major risk factor for default. (Strength: 9/10)
2. **Slowing Chinese economy**: China's economic slowdown can impact the property market, reducing demand for Country Garden's properties and making it harder for the company to meet its debt obligations. (Strength: 8/10)
3. **Global market volatility**: Global market volatility can affect the value of Country Garden's bonds, making it more difficult for the company to refinance or sell new bonds to meet its debt obligations. (Strength: 6/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that the risk of Country Garden defaulting on bond payments before January 1, 2024, is significant. While the company has a history of avoiding defaults, its high debt burden, the slowing Chinese economy, and global market volatility all increase the risk of default.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of confidence:
My initial probability of 60 may be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully capture the potential risks associated with Country Garden's high debt burden and the slowing Chinese economy. However, it is also not excessively confident, as it acknowledges the company's history of avoiding defaults and potential government support.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: 

Will an official announcement of an end to diplomatic relations between Israel and at least one of the following countries: Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and the UAE be made before January 1, 2024, due to the escalation of the Israeli conflict in the Gaza Strip following attacks in southern Israel in early October 2023, without counting the expulsion or recalling of individuals as a reason for the end of diplomatic relations? 

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

1. The current escalation of the conflict might not lead to a complete breakdown of diplomatic relations, but rather a temporary reevaluation of ties (strength: 6). 
2. The involved Arab states may try to maintain diplomatic relations with Israel as part of their broader regional strategies (strength: 7).
3. The diplomatic efforts of the involved countries may focus on finding a way to de-escalate the conflict rather than cutting ties (strength: 8).
4. The involved countries may be hesitant to openly announce an end to diplomatic relations due to potential backlash from their own populations (strength: 9).

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

1. The current escalation of the conflict could lead to increased public pressure on the involved Arab states to reconsider their diplomatic ties with Israel (strength: 8).
2. The Arab states may feel that maintaining diplomatic relations with Israel is no longer tenable due to the ongoing conflict (strength: 9).
3. The involved countries may decide to reevaluate their priorities and focus on other regional or international relationships (strength: 7).
4. The international community may pressure the involved countries to take a stronger stance against Israel, potentially leading to a breakdown in diplomatic relations (strength: 6).

Aggregate considerations:
Considering the strength of the reasons provided, it seems that the involved Arab states are more likely to maintain diplomatic relations with Israel, at least in the short term. However, the current escalation of the conflict and the potential backlash from their own populations may lead to a reevaluation of ties. The strength of the reasons suggesting a breakdown in diplomatic relations is moderate, but the reasons suggesting a continuation of relations are stronger.

Initial probability: 20

Thoughts on the initial probability:
The initial probability of 20 seems relatively low, considering the potential for a breakdown in diplomatic relations. However, it is essential to consider the base rate of the event and the potential for the involved countries to maintain diplomatic relations despite the ongoing conflict.

Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire within the next month (by November 22, 2023) following the recent intense fighting that broke out after an attack on Israel by Hamas, as reported by CNN, The Guardian, and AP News?

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. **History of failed negotiations**: Israel and Hamas have a long history of failed negotiations and broken ceasefires, which could indicate a low likelihood of a successful agreement. (Strength: 4)
2. **Divergent goals and interests**: Israel and Hamas have fundamentally different goals and interests, with Israel seeking to protect its citizens and Hamas aiming to resist Israeli occupation and assert Palestinian rights. This divergence could make it challenging to reach a mutually acceptable agreement. (Strength: 5)
3. **Escalating violence**: The recent attack by Hamas and the subsequent Israeli response have led to a significant escalation of violence, which could make it difficult to achieve a ceasefire. (Strength: 4)
4. **Hamas's support for militant groups**: Hamas's ties to other militant groups, such as Islamic Jihad, could complicate its ability to negotiate a ceasefire and maintain control over its own militant factions. (Strength: 3)
5. **Israeli domestic politics**: The Israeli government's response to the attack may be influenced by domestic politics, with some politicians pushing for a hardline stance against Hamas. This could limit the government's flexibility in negotiating a ceasefire. (Strength: 3)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. **International pressure**: The international community, including the United States, Egypt, and other countries, may apply pressure on both sides to reach a ceasefire, which could increase the likelihood of an agreement. (Strength: 4)
2. **Egypt's role as a mediator**: Egypt has a long history of mediating between Israel and Hamas, and its efforts may lead to a successful ceasefire. (Strength: 4)
3. **Humanitarian concerns**: The humanitarian situation in Gaza, where many civilians are affected by the violence, may lead to a ceasefire as both sides seek to alleviate suffering and prevent further casualties. (Strength: 3)
4. **Economic considerations**: The economic costs of continued violence, including damage to infrastructure and loss of trade, may encourage both sides to seek a ceasefire. (Strength: 3)
5. **Previous ceasefires**: Although previous ceasefires have failed, the fact that they have been attempted in the past suggests that both sides are willing to consider a temporary halt in violence, which could increase the likelihood of a future agreement. (Strength: 2)

Aggregate considerations: Considering the reasons above, I would rate the likelihood of a ceasefire as follows: the reasons against a ceasefire (4.4) are stronger than the reasons for a ceasefire (3.2). However, the strength of the reasons against a ceasefire is not overwhelming, and the international pressure and humanitarian concerns may still lead to a successful agreement.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation: My initial probability may be too low, given the history of failed ceasefires and the divergent goals of the two sides. However, the international pressure and humanitarian concerns may still lead to a successful agreement. The base rate of ceasefires in similar conflicts is not well-established, but it is likely relatively low.

Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire within the next month (by November 22, 2023), ending the ongoing conflict that began with an attack by Hamas on Israel, as reported by CNN, The Guardian, and AP News? This question will be resolved using official announcements or news media reports of a negotiated agreement to cease hostilities between the two parties. The cessation of fighting without a negotiated agreement will not count toward resolution.

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Historical pattern of failed negotiations**: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has a long history of failed negotiations and broken ceasefires, which could suggest that a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas is unlikely in the near future. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Hamas's stated goals**: Hamas's primary objective is to establish an independent Palestinian state, which is not aligned with Israel's interests. This fundamental disagreement could make it challenging to reach a mutually acceptable ceasefire agreement. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Israeli government's stance**: The Israeli government has shown a willingness to use military force to protect its citizens and interests, which might make it reluctant to agree to a ceasefire without significant concessions from Hamas. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Hamas's military capabilities**: Hamas's military capabilities have improved in recent years, which could embolden the group to resist a ceasefire or negotiate from a position of strength. (Strength: 4/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **International pressure**: The international community, including the United States, the European Union, and other countries, has called for a ceasefire and a return to negotiations. This pressure could encourage both parties to agree to a ceasefire. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Humanitarian concerns**: The ongoing conflict has caused significant humanitarian suffering, which could motivate both parties to seek a ceasefire to alleviate the suffering of civilians. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Egypt's role**: Egypt has played a key role in mediating previous ceasefires and negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Egypt's involvement could help facilitate a ceasefire agreement. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Economic interests**: A prolonged conflict could harm the economies of both Israel and Gaza, which might incentivize both parties to seek a ceasefire to restore economic stability. (Strength: 5/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against a ceasefire, I weigh the strength of each argument. The historical pattern of failed negotiations and Hamas's stated goals are significant obstacles, but the international pressure, humanitarian concerns, Egypt's role, and economic interests provide a counterbalance. I assign a moderate probability to a ceasefire agreement.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully capture the complexity of the situation. The conflict has a history of unexpected developments, and the strength of each reason could change over time. However, considering the base rate of ceasefire agreements in similar conflicts, a 40% probability might be a reasonable starting point.

Final prediction: *0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024, given the growing use of AI in music creation, the success of AI-generated song "Heart on My Sleeve" in 2023, and the ongoing conversations around intellectual property rights and copyright law?

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Limited awareness and adoption**: While AI-generated music is gaining attention, it may still be a relatively new and niche concept, and many listeners may not be aware of or familiar with AI-generated vocals, which could limit its streaming potential. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Copyright and licensing issues**: The use of AI-generated vocals raises complex copyright and licensing questions, which could lead to legal challenges and potentially limit the song's availability on streaming platforms. (Strength: 8/10)
3. **Quality and authenticity concerns**: Listeners may be skeptical about the quality and authenticity of AI-generated vocals, which could impact their willingness to stream and engage with the music. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Competition from human artists**: The music industry is highly competitive, and human artists may still dominate the streaming landscape, making it difficult for AI-generated music to gain traction. (Strength: 5/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Growing interest in AI-generated music**: The success of "Heart on My Sleeve" and other AI-generated songs suggests a growing interest in this type of music, which could lead to increased streaming numbers. (Strength: 9/10)
2. **Advancements in AI technology**: Improvements in AI technology could lead to higher-quality and more convincing AI-generated vocals, making them more appealing to listeners. (Strength: 8/10)
3. **Increased visibility and promotion**: The controversy surrounding AI-generated music could lead to increased visibility and promotion, which could help raise awareness and drive streaming numbers. (Strength: 6/10)
4. **Experimentation and innovation**: The music industry is often driven by innovation and experimentation, and AI-generated music could be seen as a new and exciting development that attracts listeners. (Strength: 7/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I think the answer is more likely to be yes, but with a moderate level of confidence. The growing interest in AI-generated music, advancements in AI technology, and increased visibility and promotion all suggest that a new song with AI-generated vocals could reach 10 million streams on Spotify before June 2024. However, the limitations of awareness and adoption, copyright and licensing issues, and quality and authenticity concerns also present challenges that could impact the song's success.

Initial probability: 62

Evaluation:
Upon further consideration, I realize that my initial probability may be too high. The music industry is highly unpredictable, and the success of AI-generated music is still uncertain. Additionally, the base rate of a song reaching 10 million streams on Spotify is likely very low, which should temper my expectations. A more conservative estimate would be more appropriate.

Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will any of the major streaming platforms, Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime, release a film or episode that is at least 20 minutes in length and has been significantly created using AI-generated content (text-to-video or other AI-powered tools) before September 1, 2023? This includes films or episodes that use AI-generated content as a primary component, such as AI-generated backgrounds, characters, or entire scenes, but does not include films or episodes that use AI-generated content in only a few scenes or for minor visual effects.

Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-10 for strength):

1. **Limited availability of suitable AI tools**: While AI-powered text-to-video tools are becoming more accessible, they may still be in the early stages of development, and the quality and reliability of these tools may not be suitable for high-end productions. (Strength: 6)
2. **High production values required for streaming platforms**: Major streaming platforms like Netflix, Hulu, and Disney+ have high standards for the content they release, and AI-generated content may not meet these standards. (Strength: 8)
3. **Risk of backlash from audiences and critics**: Releasing an AI-generated film or episode may lead to negative reviews and backlash from audiences and critics, which could harm the reputation of the streaming platform. (Strength: 5)
4. **Lack of clear guidelines and regulations**: There may be a lack of clear guidelines and regulations around the use of AI-generated content in film and television, which could make it difficult for streaming platforms to navigate. (Strength: 4)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-10 for strength):

1. **Growing interest in AI-generated content**: The success of AI-generated films like "The Crow" at the Cannes Film Festival has shown that AI-generated content can be viable and even award-winning. (Strength: 9)
2. **Increasing accessibility of AI tools**: AI-powered text-to-video tools are becoming more accessible and user-friendly, making it easier for creators to experiment with AI-generated content. (Strength: 8)
3. **Innovative storytelling opportunities**: AI-generated content can offer new and innovative storytelling opportunities that may not be possible with traditional production methods. (Strength: 7)
4. **Competition among streaming platforms**: The competition among streaming platforms to produce unique and engaging content may drive them to experiment with AI-generated content. (Strength: 6)

Aggregated considerations:

While there are valid reasons to think that the answer might be no, the growing interest in AI-generated content and the increasing accessibility of AI tools suggest that it's possible that at least one of the major streaming platforms will release an AI-generated film or episode before September 1, 2023. However, the high production values required for streaming platforms and the risk of backlash from audiences and critics are significant concerns.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of the initial probability:

The initial probability of 40 seems too low, given the growing interest in AI-generated content and the increasing accessibility of AI tools. However, the high production values required for streaming platforms and the risk of backlash from audiences and critics are significant concerns that should not be overlooked.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will forces affiliated with Wagner gain majority control of Moscow by Tuesday, June 27, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET? If so, this market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The question is based on the assumption that Wagner's forces are actively attempting to take Moscow. This question does not consider the motivations behind Wagner's actions or the broader geopolitical implications of their potential control of the city.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- Wagner's forces are not known for their conventional military capabilities, and they might face significant resistance from the Russian military. (Strength: 8/10)
- Moscow is a heavily fortified city with a strong military presence, making it a challenging target for an external force to capture. (Strength: 9/10)
- The Russian military has shown a history of effective defense against external threats, which might hinder Wagner's advance. (Strength: 7.5/10)
- The question's timeframe is extremely short (by Tuesday), which might not provide enough time for Wagner's forces to mobilize and execute a successful assault. (Strength: 8.5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- Wagner has a history of being involved in high-stakes military operations in Ukraine, which suggests they have the capabilities to engage in urban warfare. (Strength: 6.5/10)
- The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has shown that external forces can influence the outcome of battles, and Wagner might be able to capitalize on this momentum. (Strength: 7/10)
- Wagner's involvement in the conflict could be seen as a proxy for Russian interests, which might imply that they have a level of support from the Russian government. (Strength: 5.5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the above points, it seems that the primary reasons against Wagner taking Moscow are the city's defenses, the Russian military's effectiveness, and the short timeframe. While Wagner has shown capabilities in high-stakes operations, their lack of conventional military capabilities and the defenses of Moscow make it a challenging task. The involvement of Wagner as a proxy for Russian interests is a factor, but its strength is uncertain.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would rate the likelihood of Wagner taking Moscow by Tuesday at 20%.

6. Evaluation and refinement:
Upon further consideration, I realize that the initial probability might be too low, given the complex nature of the conflict and the involvement of Wagner. However, the short timeframe and the city's defenses make it a challenging task. The base rate of such events is difficult to assess, as it depends on the specific context and the capabilities of Wagner's forces.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the 2023 film 'The Inventor' gross more than $8 million on its opening weekend in the United States and Canada, as reported by Box Office Mojo, by the end of its first three days of release (Friday to Sunday, September 15-17, 2023)? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the actual domestic box office gross for the film exceeds $8 million during this period. If the actual domestic box office gross is $8 million or less, the market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Domestic Weekend section on Box Office Mojo for the specified weekend, and if no final data is available by September 24, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, an alternative credible source will be used for resolution.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
   a. The film may not have received significant marketing or publicity, potentially limiting its appeal to a wider audience. (Strength: 3)
   b. The film's genre or plot may not be of interest to a broad range of viewers, which could lead to lower box office earnings. (Strength: 4)
   c. The release date coincides with other movies or events that might draw attention away from 'The Inventor.' (Strength: 2)
   d. The film's budget and production values may not be high enough to generate significant buzz or interest among viewers. (Strength: 3)
   e. The box office performance of similar films in the same genre has been inconsistent or poor in recent times. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
   a. The film has a unique or intriguing premise that could attract viewers who are looking for something different. (Strength: 4)
   b. The cast or crew involved in the film may have a strong track record of success, which could generate interest and buzz. (Strength: 5)
   c. The film's marketing campaign has been well-executed and targeted effectively, potentially drawing in a sizable audience. (Strength: 4)
   d. The film's release date does not coincide with other major releases or events that might cannibalize its audience. (Strength: 3)
   e. The film's production values and budget are sufficient to create a visually appealing and engaging cinematic experience. (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Taking into account both the reasons for a "yes" and "no" outcome, I consider the strengths of each argument. The reasons for a "yes" outcome seem to have a slightly higher overall strength, with a few strong points (e.g., the cast or crew's track record, the film's marketing campaign, and its production values). However, the reasons for a "no" outcome also present some valid concerns, such as the film's genre, release date, and budget. Overall, I need to balance these factors to arrive at a probability.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I estimate the probability of 'The Inventor' grossing over $8 million on its opening weekend to be around 62%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon reviewing my initial probability, I consider it to be somewhat conservative. While there are valid reasons for a "no" outcome, the reasons for a "yes" outcome seem more compelling. I also consider the base rate of films grossing over $8 million on their opening weekend, which is not extremely low. However, I still need to be cautious and consider the specific factors affecting 'The Inventor.'

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Blur Season 2 come to an end by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, as announced on February 14, 2023? The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Blur (e.g., XXXX, XXXX, etc.), and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- Blur Season 2's end date may be delayed due to the complexity of the project or unforeseen technical issues (Strength: 6/10).
- Blur's team may be working on new features or updates that require extending the season (Strength: 5/10).
- Blur might be prioritizing other aspects of their platform over the completion of Season 2 (Strength: 4/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- Blur announced Season 2 on February 14, 2023, indicating a clear plan for the season's duration (Strength: 8/10).
- Blur's announcement of Season 2 suggests a structured timeline, which typically implies a commitment to completing the season within the announced timeframe (Strength: 7/10).
- Blur's official communication channels may not always reflect the actual development pace, but the announced start date and no official updates about a delay suggest a likely completion within the given timeframe (Strength: 6/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the announced start date, the structured timeline, and the lack of official updates about a delay, the initial probability leans towards a yes answer. However, the complexity of the project, potential unforeseen issues, and Blur's prioritization of other aspects of their platform introduce uncertainty.

5. Initial probability:
60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the available information. However, it may be too low, considering the structured timeline and the lack of official updates about a delay. The base rate of Blur's announcements and their follow-through on those announcements is not explicitly known, which might affect the forecast.

7. Final prediction:
*0.80*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.8
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Saudi Arabia agree to sell oil to China in Yuan for at least 1 million tonnes of crude oil before December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This agreement would imply that Saudi Arabia would accept the Chinese Yuan (CNY) as a legitimate currency for oil transactions, potentially deviating from the traditional US Dollar (USD) standard. The agreement would be a significant development in the global energy market and could have far-reaching implications for the economic relationship between Saudi Arabia and China. The question will resolve to "Yes" if Saudi Arabia officially announces or confirms such an agreement before the specified deadline. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No" (with strength ratings):
- Saudi Arabia's long-standing reliance on the US Dollar for oil transactions: Saudi Arabia has historically maintained a strong relationship with the United States and has traditionally priced its oil sales in USD. A switch to the Yuan could be seen as a significant departure from this norm, potentially straining diplomatic ties with the US. (Strength: 8/10)
- US pressure on Saudi Arabia to maintain the status quo: The US government might exert pressure on Saudi Arabia to continue using the USD for oil transactions, given the significant influence the US has on global economic policies. (Strength: 6/10)
- Logistical challenges in implementing a new payment system: Changing the currency used for oil transactions would require significant adjustments to the existing infrastructure and payment systems of both countries. This could lead to delays, inefficiencies, and potential losses. (Strength: 5/10)
- Potential economic risks for Saudi Arabia: Accepting the Yuan could expose Saudi Arabia to exchange rate fluctuations and potential losses if the value of the Yuan drops significantly. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes" (with strength ratings):
- Growing economic ties between Saudi Arabia and China: Saudi Arabia has been actively seeking to diversify its economic relationships, and China has become a significant trading partner. A shift to the Yuan could be seen as a way to strengthen this relationship. (Strength: 7/10)
- China's increasing global influence: As China continues to grow its economic and military presence, it may be able to exert more pressure on Saudi Arabia to accept the Yuan. (Strength: 6/10)
- Potential benefits for Saudi Arabia in terms of reduced reliance on the USD: By diversifying its currency options, Saudi Arabia could reduce its dependence on the US and gain more flexibility in its economic dealings. (Strength: 5/10)
- China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Saudi Arabia has expressed interest in participating in the BRI, which could lead to increased economic cooperation and potentially pave the way for a shift to the Yuan. (Strength: 4/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
While there are valid reasons on both sides, the growing economic ties between Saudi Arabia and China, China's increasing global influence, and potential benefits for Saudi Arabia in terms of reduced reliance on the USD seem to outweigh the reasons against a shift to the Yuan. However, the historical reliance on the USD and potential logistical challenges cannot be ignored.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of Saudi Arabia agreeing to sell oil to China in Yuan for at least 1 million tonnes of crude oil before December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon further consideration, I believe my initial probability might be too high. The historical reliance on the USD and potential logistical challenges are significant factors that could hinder a shift to the Yuan. Additionally, the base rate of such a significant change in global economic policy is relatively low. Therefore, I might need to adjust my initial probability downward.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the U.S. government sign a new aid package to Israel into law by November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, based on official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting?

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No" and their strength:
   a. The U.S. government may face opposition from various groups, including some lawmakers, who might argue that the aid package is not necessary or that the funds could be better spent elsewhere. (Strength: 6/10)
   b. The U.S. government may be preoccupied with other pressing domestic or international issues, potentially delaying the passage of the aid package. (Strength: 7/10)
   c. There may be disagreements within the U.S. government about the terms or conditions of the aid package, leading to a delay in its passage. (Strength: 5/10)
   d. The U.S. government may be waiting for a response from Israel regarding certain conditions or concessions before signing the aid package. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes" and their strength:
   a. The U.S. government has historically been a strong supporter of Israel, and a new aid package may be seen as a way to continue this support. (Strength: 9/10)
   b. The U.S. government may have already begun negotiations with Israel regarding the aid package, and a deal may be in place. (Strength: 8/10)
   c. The U.S. government may be under pressure from pro-Israel groups and lawmakers to pass the aid package, which could lead to swift passage. (Strength: 7/10)
   d. The aid package may be part of a broader U.S. foreign policy strategy in the Middle East, and its passage could be seen as a key component of this strategy. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons provided, it seems that there are more reasons pointing towards a "Yes" answer (4) than a "No" answer (4), but the strengths of the reasons vary. The strongest reasons are the U.S. government's historical support for Israel (9/10) and the potential pressure from pro-Israel groups and lawmakers (7/10). However, there are also potential obstacles, such as opposition from lawmakers (6/10) and disagreements within the U.S. government (5/10).

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the U.S. government signing a new aid package to Israel into law by November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, to be 70.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 70 seems relatively high, considering the potential obstacles mentioned earlier. However, the U.S. government's historical support for Israel and the potential pressure from pro-Israel groups and lawmakers suggest a strong likelihood of passage. To account for the potential risks, I would adjust the probability to a more conservative estimate.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Milady Maker have a higher finalized daily floor price than Azuki on any day between August 10 and August 31, 2023, inclusive, based on OpenSea Pro's daily floor price analytics, with Blur as an alternative data source if OpenSea Pro becomes unavailable? The question will resolve to "Yes" if Milady Maker achieves this feat at any point during the specified period, and to "No" otherwise.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- **Reason 1: Azuki's popularity and market presence**: Azuki has a well-established market presence and a strong community, which could lead to higher demand and, consequently, a higher floor price. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 2: Milady Maker's limited market presence**: Milady Maker might not have the same level of recognition or market presence as Azuki, potentially limiting its price growth. (Strength: 7.5/10)
- **Reason 3: Market trends and overall NFT sentiment**: The broader NFT market might be experiencing a downturn or a period of decreased demand, affecting Milady Maker's floor price and its ability to surpass Azuki's. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 4: Limited data availability and OpenSea Pro's reliability**: If OpenSea Pro becomes unavailable, using Blur as an alternative might introduce uncertainty, potentially leading to inaccurate floor price data and affecting the resolution of the question. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- **Reason 1: Milady Maker's unique features and community engagement**: If Milady Maker has unique features, a dedicated community, or upcoming events that could drive interest and increase its floor price, it might surpass Azuki's. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 2: Azuki's market saturation**: If Azuki's market has become saturated, leading to decreased demand and a lower floor price, Milady Maker might be able to capitalize on this and surpass Azuki's price. (Strength: 5.5/10)
- **Reason 3: Unexpected market events or trends**: Unforeseen events, such as a significant NFT-related announcement or a shift in market sentiment, could benefit Milady Maker and lead to a higher floor price. (Strength: 4.5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the most significant factors seem to be Azuki's established market presence and popularity, as well as the potential for market trends and limited data availability to impact the outcome. However, there are also opportunities for Milady Maker to surpass Azuki, driven by its unique features, community engagement, or unexpected market events.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the answer being "yes" to be around 30%. This is a relatively low probability, given the established market presence and popularity of Azuki.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems to be on the cautious side, given the potential for Milady Maker to capitalize on Azuki's market saturation or unexpected events. However, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of one NFT collection surpassing another's floor price in a given timeframe) is not explicitly known, but it is likely to be low. This might suggest that the initial probability is not excessively confident.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
"Will Mariah Carey's 'All I Want for Christmas is You' be the #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of January 6, 2024? This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Mariah Carey's song is indeed at the top of the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of January 6, 2024. The market will resolve to 'No' if it is not. The primary source for this resolution will be the official Billboard website (XXXX). The market may resolve as soon as data for the week of January 6 is released, which typically occurs on the Tuesday following that week (January 2). The question will be closed on January 6, 2024."

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

- Mariah Carey's song may have strong competition from other popular holiday songs or new releases in the week of January 6, 2024 (Strength: 6/10).
- The Billboard Hot 100 chart can be influenced by various factors such as streaming, sales, and radio airplay, and there might be an unexpected shift in these metrics that affects Mariah Carey's song's ranking (Strength: 7/10).
- Mariah Carey's song may have peaked in popularity earlier in the holiday season and lost momentum by January 6, 2024 (Strength: 5/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

- Mariah Carey's 'All I Want for Christmas is You' is a highly popular holiday song that consistently performs well on the Billboard Hot 100 chart, especially during the holiday season (Strength: 9/10).
- The song has been a holiday staple for many years and has a strong following, which could contribute to its high ranking on the chart (Strength: 8/10).
- The song's popularity is likely to be boosted by its consistent release and promotion each year, making it a strong contender for the top spot on the chart (Strength: 8/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided above, the strength of the reasons for 'yes' outweigh those for 'no'. Mariah Carey's song has a strong track record of performing well on the Billboard Hot 100 chart during the holiday season, and its consistent release and promotion each year contribute to its high ranking. However, there is still some uncertainty due to the potential competition from other popular songs and the influence of various chart metrics.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Mariah Carey's 'All I Want for Christmas is You' being #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of January 6, 2024, to be 80.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 80 seems reasonably confident, but not excessively so. It acknowledges the song's strong track record and promotion, while also considering the potential competition and uncertainties in the chart metrics. However, it's essential to keep in mind that the base rate of a song reaching #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart is relatively low, and the actual probability might be influenced by various factors not considered in this analysis.

7. Final prediction:
*0.80*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.8
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will any sovereign nation outside of Israel officially declare war on either Israel or Hamas by December 31, 2023, ET? This declaration must be clear, explicit, and from a recognized sovereign nation. A declaration of war by Israel or Hamas will not be considered for this question. Additionally, if a non-state actor like Hezbollah declares war, it will not satisfy a "Yes" resolution. Only the declaration of war from the sovereign nation itself, in this case Lebanon, will be considered. The resolution of this question will be based on whether such a declaration of war is made by the specified date.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-10 for strength):
- **Reason 1: Diplomatic efforts**: The international community, particularly the United States, European Union, and other influential nations, may continue to push for a peaceful resolution to the conflict through diplomatic means, reducing the likelihood of another nation declaring war. (Strength: 6)
- **Reason 2: Economic sanctions**: The potential economic consequences of declaring war, including sanctions from other nations, may deter countries from taking such a drastic action. (Strength: 5)
- **Reason 3: Military involvement risks**: The involvement of other nations in the conflict may lead to unpredictable outcomes, including the risk of escalation, which might discourage nations from declaring war. (Strength: 7)
- **Reason 4: International law and norms**: The international community may be reluctant to recognize a declaration of war due to the potential for violating international law and norms. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-10 for strength):
- **Reason 1: Regional tensions**: The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas may lead to increased tensions in the region, potentially drawing other nations into the conflict. (Strength: 8)
- **Reason 2: Ideological alignment**: Some nations may have ideological or strategic interests that align with those of Hamas, potentially leading to a declaration of war. (Strength: 5)
- **Reason 3: Proxy wars**: The conflict may escalate into a proxy war, with other nations supporting either Israel or Hamas, which could lead to a declaration of war. (Strength: 6)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the likelihood of another nation declaring war on either Israel or Hamas by December 31, 2023, seems low due to the potential risks and consequences of such an action. However, the regional tensions and ideological alignment may increase the likelihood of a declaration of war. I will weigh these factors and provide an initial probability.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of another nation declaring war on either Israel or Hamas by December 31, 2023, to be around 20%. This is a relatively low estimate due to the potential risks and consequences of such an action.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems to be relatively low, but it may be excessively cautious. The regional tensions and ideological alignment could potentially lead to a declaration of war. However, the potential risks and consequences may still outweigh the likelihood of such an event. The base rate of nations declaring war is relatively low, which should be considered when evaluating the probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Federal Reserve raise the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at any point between September 5, 2023, and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an increase in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at any point between September 5, 2023, and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (XXXX), with a consensus of credible reporting also being considered.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- The Federal Reserve has already raised interest rates multiple times in 2022, and a recession might be looming, which could lead to a decrease in interest rates rather than an increase. (Strength: 6/10)
- The current inflation rate might be decreasing, and the Federal Reserve might be more likely to pause or decrease interest rates to stimulate economic growth. (Strength: 5/10)
- The labor market might be showing signs of weakness, which could lead to a decrease in interest rates to boost employment. (Strength: 4/10)
- The Federal Reserve might be prioritizing economic growth over inflation control, which could lead to a decrease in interest rates. (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- The Federal Reserve has been committed to fighting inflation, and raising interest rates is a key tool in achieving this goal. (Strength: 9/10)
- The current inflation rate is still above the Federal Reserve's target, and a rate increase would be consistent with their inflation-fighting goals. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Federal Reserve has a history of raising interest rates in response to inflation, and there is no indication that this trend will change. (Strength: 7/10)
- The economy might be strong enough to withstand a rate increase, and the Federal Reserve might want to maintain its hawkish stance to prevent overheating. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons for a rate increase are stronger than the reasons for a rate decrease, as the Federal Reserve has a clear commitment to fighting inflation and has a history of raising rates in response to inflation. However, the potential for a recession and the current state of the labor market are potential wildcards that could lead to a decrease in interest rates.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Federal Reserve raising the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at any point between September 5, 2023, and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET to be around 70.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 70 seems reasonable given the strength of the reasons for a rate increase and the potential wildcards that could lead to a decrease in interest rates. However, it's worth noting that the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in a given year) is relatively high, as the Federal Reserve has been raising rates in recent years. Therefore, the initial probability might be slightly too low.

7. Final prediction:
*0.72*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.72
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will 'The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' have a higher domestic opening weekend gross than 'The Marvels' when the final domestic weekend box office numbers are available for both movies, specifically considering the 3-day weekend box office results (including Thursday's previews) from November 17-19 for 'The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' and November 10-12 for 'The Marvels', as per the data on Box Office Mojo? If there is no final data available by November 27, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):

- The Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) has a massive global fan base, and 'The Marvels' is the next installment in this popular franchise, which often attracts a large audience. (Strength: 8/10)
- 'The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' is a prequel to the original Hunger Games series, which might not have the same level of excitement and anticipation as a new entry in a long-running franchise like the MCU. (Strength: 6/10)
- The marketing campaign for 'The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' might not have been as extensive or effective as 'The Marvels', which often receives significant promotional support from Disney. (Strength: 5/10)
- The opening weekend box office performance of 'The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' might be impacted by the fact that it is a prequel, which can sometimes lead to lower initial interest compared to a new, original story. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):

- 'The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' has received positive reviews from critics, which can help generate buzz and attract audiences. (Strength: 7/10)
- The prequel's unique storyline and setting, taking place 64 years before the events of the original series, might appeal to both new and old fans of the franchise. (Strength: 6/10)
- The movie's cast, including Tom Blythe and Rachel Zegler, might draw in audiences and help generate interest in the film. (Strength: 5/10)
- 'The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' has a built-in audience from the original series, which could lead to a strong opening weekend. (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The MCU's massive fan base and the marketing muscle behind 'The Marvels' are significant advantages for the movie. However, the positive reviews and unique storyline of 'The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' might help it attract a strong audience. The prequel's built-in fan base and the cast's appeal also work in its favor. Considering these factors, I would initially estimate that the probability of 'The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' having a higher domestic opening weekend gross than 'The Marvels' is around 40%.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability seems to be on the lower end, considering the potential advantages of 'The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes'. However, the MCU's strength and the marketing efforts behind 'The Marvels' cannot be underestimated. The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a movie having a higher opening weekend gross than another) is difficult to estimate, but it's likely around 50%. Considering this, my initial probability might be slightly too low.

7. Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a publicly announced and mutually agreed upon halt in military engagement between Israel and Hamas, resulting in the exchange of hostages, be in place by November 10, 2023, 11:59 PM IST (UTC + 2), as confirmed by official statements from Hamas, Israel, the United States, and/or the relevant nations to whom the released hostages belong, before the resolution date?

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No":
   a. Historical tensions between Israel and Hamas: The two parties have a history of conflict, which might make it challenging to reach a mutually agreeable ceasefire. (Strength: 7/10)
   b. Differences in demands and expectations: The parties might have differing expectations and demands for the ceasefire, which could hinder negotiations. (Strength: 6/10)
   c. External factors: International pressure and other external factors might not be sufficient to bring about a ceasefire. (Strength: 5/10)
   d. Complexity of hostage release: The release of hostages can be a complex process, involving various stakeholders and interests, which might delay or prevent a ceasefire. (Strength: 8/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes":
   a. International pressure: The international community might apply sufficient pressure on both parties to reach a ceasefire. (Strength: 8/10)
   b. Economic considerations: A prolonged conflict can have significant economic costs, which might motivate both parties to seek a peaceful resolution. (Strength: 7/10)
   c. Humanitarian concerns: The humanitarian situation in Gaza and the potential for further civilian casualties might prompt both parties to seek a ceasefire. (Strength: 9/10)
   d. Previous ceasefires: There have been previous instances of ceasefires between Israel and Hamas, which might indicate a possibility of a repeat. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the historical tensions, differing demands, and complexity of the situation, there are valid reasons for a "No" outcome. However, the international pressure, economic considerations, humanitarian concerns, and previous ceasefires suggest a possibility of a "Yes" outcome. I will weigh the strengths of each reason to form a prediction.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of a ceasefire being in place by November 10, 2023, 11:59 PM IST (UTC + 2), as 42%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 42% seems reasonable, given the complexities of the situation and the various factors at play. However, it might be considered slightly conservative, as the humanitarian concerns and international pressure could potentially push the parties towards a ceasefire. I will consider these factors in the final prediction.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Sheikh Jassim acquire a controlling stake (at least 50% of Manchester United FC shares) in Manchester United FC by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, as officially confirmed by Manchester United FC or credible public sources? This market will resolve immediately if any deal to acquire a controlling stake in Manchester United FC is reached, including other bidders. 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- The complexities and difficulties of buying a large football club like Manchester United FC, including regulatory hurdles and potential opposition from the club's existing ownership and fans, might deter Sheikh Jassim (Strength: 6/10).
- Other potential bidders might emerge, increasing competition for the club and potentially making it harder for Sheikh Jassim to secure a controlling stake (Strength: 7/10).
- The current market situation and economic conditions might not be favorable for a large acquisition like this, affecting Sheikh Jassim's ability to secure funding or make the deal financially viable (Strength: 5/10).
- Sheikh Jassim might not be willing or able to meet the financial requirements of acquiring a controlling stake in Manchester United FC (Strength: 8/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- Sheikh Jassim has already expressed interest in buying Manchester United FC, indicating a clear desire to acquire the club (Strength: 9/10).
- He has the financial resources to potentially secure a controlling stake in the club (Strength: 9/10).
- Manchester United FC's current ownership structure and the club's need for investment might create an opportunity for Sheikh Jassim to negotiate a favorable deal (Strength: 7/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the main factors influencing the outcome are Sheikh Jassim's ability to secure a controlling stake, the presence of other potential bidders, and the financial feasibility of the deal. While there are valid reasons why the answer might be no, the fact that Sheikh Jassim has expressed interest and has the financial resources to back it up gives him an advantage.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of Sheikh Jassim buying Manchester United FC by December 31, 2023, at 60%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident given the complexity of the situation and the potential for unexpected events. Considering the base rate of large football club acquisitions, it's not uncommon for deals to fall through or be delayed. Additionally, there might be other factors at play that could affect the outcome, such as the involvement of other stakeholders or changes in the global economic landscape.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will another member of the U.S. House of Representatives be censured by the House of Representatives by 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2023, following the precedent set by the censure of Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan on November 8 for her rhetoric about the Israel-Hamas war?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The U.S. House of Representatives has a history of censuring members, but it's a rare and serious action, and it might be difficult for another member to meet the threshold for censure. (Strength: 4)
- The House has a relatively short time frame to censure another member before the November 30 deadline, which might limit the likelihood of another censure. (Strength: 3)
- The censure of Rep. Tlaib was a significant event, and it might be challenging for another member to spark a similar level of controversy and outrage. (Strength: 4)
- The House has a large number of members, and it's possible that another member might not be able to accumulate enough support for censure. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The censure of Rep. Tlaib set a precedent, and other members might feel emboldened to speak out on contentious issues, increasing the likelihood of another censure. (Strength: 4)
- The House has a history of taking action against members who engage in behavior deemed unacceptable, and another member might be censured for a similar reason. (Strength: 4)
- The November 30 deadline creates a sense of urgency, which might prompt the House to act quickly on any potential censure cases. (Strength: 3)
- The House has a diverse membership, and there are many members who might engage in behavior that could lead to censure. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against, it seems that the likelihood of another member being censured is relatively low, but not impossible. The precedent set by Rep. Tlaib's censure and the potential for another member to spark controversy are counterbalanced by the rarity of censure and the limited time frame for action.

5. Initial probability: 20

6. Evaluation:
The initial probability of 20 seems relatively low, considering the potential for another member to spark controversy or engage in behavior that could lead to censure. However, the rarity of censure and the limited time frame for action might temper this likelihood. Additionally, the base rate of censure is relatively low, which could affect the forecast.

7. Final prediction: *0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: Will the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approve the first spot Bitcoin ETF on January 10, 2024, or will it make a decision to approve the first spot Bitcoin ETF before this date?

Reasons why the answer might be no:
1. **Historical precedent of SEC delays**: Historically, the SEC has taken a cautious approach to approving Bitcoin ETFs, and it's possible that they might take more time than expected to review the application. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Regulatory concerns**: The SEC might still have regulatory concerns about the potential risks associated with Bitcoin, such as market volatility, security risks, and potential for manipulation. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Public opinion and pressure**: There might be public pressure and opposition to approving a Bitcoin ETF, which could influence the SEC's decision. (Strength: 4/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:
1. **SEC's recent actions**: The SEC has recently approved a few Bitcoin futures ETFs, which might indicate a shift in their stance on approving Bitcoin-based financial products. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Growing institutional interest**: There is growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, and approving a spot Bitcoin ETF could attract more institutional investors to the market. (Strength: 9/10)
3. **Market demand**: The market has been demanding a spot Bitcoin ETF, and approving it could be seen as a way for the SEC to cater to market demand and promote financial innovation. (Strength: 8/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both "yes" and "no," it seems that the SEC's recent actions and growing institutional interest in Bitcoin are strong indicators that they might approve the first spot Bitcoin ETF. However, historical precedent and regulatory concerns might still influence their decision.

Initial probability: 60

Thoughts on initial probability:
My initial probability is relatively low because I'm considering the historical precedent of the SEC taking a cautious approach to approving Bitcoin ETFs. However, I'm also considering the recent SEC actions and growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, which suggest that they might be more open to approving a spot Bitcoin ETF.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Emmanuel Macron remain the President of France without interruption from July 3, 2023, through July 10, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET (inclusive), according to the CIA World Factbook page for France and a consensus of credible reporting? This question will resolve to "Yes" if Macron continues to hold the presidency throughout the specified time period, and to "No" if he is interrupted or removed from office before July 10, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- Macron's health issues (Strength: 2): Macron has had health concerns in the past, and a serious health issue could lead to his removal from office.
- Impeachment or indictment (Strength: 3): Although unlikely, Macron could face impeachment or indictment, which would result in his removal from office.
- Protests or civil unrest (Strength: 2): France has experienced protests in the past, and widespread unrest could potentially lead to Macron's removal.
- Constitutional changes (Strength: 4): France's constitution allows for the president to be removed from office through a vote of no-confidence, which could be triggered by a change in the parliamentary majority.
- Assassination or incapacitation (Strength: 5): Although highly unlikely, Macron could be assassinated or incapacitated, leading to his removal from office.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- Macron's strong party control (Strength: 4): Macron's party, La République En Marche, holds a significant majority in the National Assembly, making it difficult for opponents to remove him from office.
- Macron's popularity (Strength: 3): Macron's approval ratings have been relatively stable, suggesting that he enjoys a strong level of support from the French public.
- Lack of clear opposition (Strength: 2): While there are opposition parties in France, there is no clear alternative to Macron, making it difficult for him to be removed from office.
- Constitutional protections (Strength: 5): The French constitution provides strong protections for the president, making it difficult for him to be removed from office through impeachment or other means.
- Macron's leadership (Strength: 4): Macron has demonstrated strong leadership skills, which could help him navigate any challenges and maintain his position.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I weigh the strength of each reason. Macron's strong party control, popularity, and leadership skills provide a strong foundation for him to remain in office. However, potential health issues, impeachment or indictment, protests, and constitutional changes pose some risk to his position. Assassination or incapacitation is highly unlikely but cannot be ruled out entirely.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of Macron remaining President of France without interruption from July 3, 2023, through July 10, 2023, to be 85.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 85% may be overly confident, as it does not account for the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of a president being removed from office in a given time period). However, given the strong protections in place for the French presidency and Macron's current position, I believe this probability is reasonable.

7. Final prediction:
*0.80*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.8
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the ETH-USD price on Coinbase reach or exceed $2,500 at any point between July 13, 2023, 12:00, and July 31, 2023, 23:59, in the ET timezone, based on the "High" prices available on the Coinbase ETH-USD chart with 1-minute candles? The resolution will be based on the "High" prices available on the Coinbase ETH-USD chart, specifically the "H" value displayed when hovering over particular candles.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 6/10**: The current market trend and overall cryptocurrency market conditions might not favor a significant price increase, making it less likely for ETH-USD to reach $2,500.
- **Strength: 5/10**: Historical data may show that ETH-USD has struggled to maintain significant price increases, indicating a possible difficulty in reaching the target price.
- **Strength: 4/10**: The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, but a sudden and significant increase to $2,500 might be unlikely given the current market conditions and trends.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 8/10**: The cryptocurrency market can experience rapid price swings, and a combination of market factors could lead to a significant increase in ETH-USD price.
- **Strength: 7/10**: There is always a possibility of a surprise event or announcement that could positively impact the cryptocurrency market and cause a rapid price increase.
- **Strength: 6/10**: Some market analysts and experts might be predicting a price increase in ETH-USD, which could contribute to a self-fulfilling prophecy and drive the price up.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the most significant factor is the possibility of a rapid price swing in the cryptocurrency market (Strength: 8/10). However, this is countered by the likelihood of the current market trend and conditions not favoring a significant price increase (Strength: 6/10). The historical data and market volatility also play a role, but to a lesser extent.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of ETH-USD reaching or exceeding $2,500 by July 31, 2023, to be around 40%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 40% might be considered not confident enough, as it does not account for the potential impact of significant market events or announcements that could greatly influence the price. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of ETH-USD reaching $2,500 by July 31, 2023) is unknown, but it is likely to be relatively low.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, which began on November 24, 2023, 7 AM IST (Israeli Standard Time), last at least 10 full days (240 consecutive hours) as part of the hostage/prisoner exchange deal, considering credible information and reporting up to December 4, 2023? The resolution of this market depends on the duration of the ceasefire, and it will be resolved to "Yes" if the ceasefire lasts for at least 10 days, and to "No" otherwise.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):

- **Reason 1: History of Violations**: The history of past ceasefires between Hamas and Israel is marked by frequent violations, which could indicate a pattern of behavior that might lead to a breach in the current agreement. Strength: 6/10
- **Reason 2: Unresolved Issues**: The underlying issues driving the conflict, such as territorial disputes and ideological differences, remain unresolved. Strength: 7/10
- **Reason 3: External Factors**: External factors like regional tensions, international pressure, or unforeseen events could lead to a breakdown in the ceasefire. Strength: 5/10
- **Reason 4: Hamas's Stance**: Hamas's stance on the agreement and their willingness to adhere to it could be a significant factor in its success or failure. Strength: 4/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):

- **Reason 1: International Pressure**: The international community's pressure on both parties to maintain the ceasefire could contribute to its success. Strength: 8/10
- **Reason 2: Economic Interests**: The economic interests of both parties in maintaining a stable situation could motivate them to uphold the ceasefire. Strength: 6/10
- **Reason 3: Humanitarian Concerns**: The humanitarian aspects of the agreement, including the release of hostages and prisoners, could create a sense of urgency and motivation for both sides to adhere to the ceasefire. Strength: 7/10
- **Reason 4: Diplomatic Efforts**: The involvement of diplomatic efforts and negotiations could help to maintain the ceasefire and resolve underlying issues. Strength: 5/10

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the primary concerns for the ceasefire's success or failure lie in the history of past violations, unresolved issues, and external factors. However, the international pressure, economic interests, humanitarian concerns, and diplomatic efforts also play a significant role in the likelihood of the ceasefire lasting 10 days.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the ceasefire lasting 10 days at 40%.

6. Evaluation and refinement:
The initial probability seems somewhat cautious, given the presence of factors that could contribute to the ceasefire's success. However, considering the history of past failures and the complexity of the issues involved, it seems reasonable to start with a moderate level of confidence. The base rate of ceasefires lasting in this context is not explicitly stated, but given the history of conflicts between Hamas and Israel, it is likely low.

7. Final prediction:
*0.4*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Lionel Messi score a goal in his next game for Inter Miami CF scheduled for August 19, 2023? The resolution of this question will be based on official footage of the game and a consensus of credible reporting from sources such as ESPN (XXXX). The market will resolve to "Yes" if Messi scores in his next game, and to "No" if he does not score.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Messi might be having an off-game (Strength: 3) - As a professional athlete, Messi can have off-games, and it's possible that he might not be in top form on August 19.
- Inter Miami CF might be facing a strong defense (Strength: 4) - If the opposing team has a solid defense, it could be challenging for Messi to score.
- Messi might be playing in a new system or with new teammates (Strength: 2) - Adjusting to a new system or teammates can take time, and it's possible that Messi might not be able to adjust quickly enough to score.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Messi is an exceptional goal-scorer (Strength: 5) - As one of the greatest soccer players of all time, Messi has a proven track record of scoring goals.
- Messi has a high level of fitness and skill (Strength: 5) - At his age, Messi is still considered one of the fittest and most skilled players in the world.
- Inter Miami CF has a strong attacking lineup (Strength: 4) - With Messi on the team, Inter Miami CF has a strong attacking lineup that can create scoring opportunities.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the main factors that influence the outcome are Messi's individual skill and fitness level, the strength of Inter Miami CF's attacking lineup, and the possibility of an off-game or a strong opposing defense. Given these factors, the probability of Messi scoring in his next game is likely to be high.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Messi scoring in his next game to be around 80.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 80 seems reasonable, given Messi's skill level and the strength of Inter Miami CF's attacking lineup. However, it's worth considering the base rate of the event, which is not explicitly provided. Assuming that the base rate of a player scoring in a game is around 50% (a rough estimate), the initial probability of 80 might be slightly too high. However, considering Messi's exceptional skill level, the initial probability might be more accurate than a base rate of 50%.

7. Final prediction:
*0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Hunter Biden face new, previously unfiled, criminal charges against him by November 1, 2023, 12:00 AM ET? This question considers charges that were not formally filed against him before September 18, 2023. The resolution of this question will be based on the filing of new charges, not the outcome of any existing cases or investigations.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Limited information on ongoing investigations** (Strength: 6/10): There is limited information available on the current status of investigations related to Hunter Biden, which might imply that there are no new charges being prepared.
- **Reason 2: Prosecutorial discretion and timing** (Strength: 8/10): Prosecutors often consider various factors before deciding to file charges, and the timing of such decisions can be unpredictable. They might be hesitant to file charges before the midterm elections to avoid controversy.
- **Reason 3: No public announcements of new investigations** (Strength: 7/10): There have been no public announcements of new investigations or charges against Hunter Biden since September 18, 2023, which could indicate that no new charges are being prepared.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Ongoing investigations and potential discoveries** (Strength: 9/10): Investigations into Hunter Biden's activities are ongoing, and it is possible that new evidence has been discovered that could lead to new charges.
- **Reason 2: Political pressure and public scrutiny** (Strength: 5/10): The ongoing public scrutiny and potential political pressure might lead to the filing of new charges, especially if there is evidence of wrongdoing that could be used to damage the Biden administration.
- **Reason 3: Potential for unexpected developments** (Strength: 8/10): The legal process can be unpredictable, and unexpected developments, such as new witnesses coming forward or previously unknown evidence being discovered, could lead to new charges.

4. Aggregated considerations: 
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the possibility of new charges being filed against Hunter Biden is not entirely ruled out. However, the lack of public announcements and limited information on ongoing investigations might suggest that new charges are less likely. The potential for unexpected developments and ongoing investigations could still lead to new charges, but the uncertainty and unpredictability of the situation make it challenging to estimate the likelihood of new charges being filed.

5. Initial probability: 
Given the considerations above, I estimate the initial probability of Hunter Biden facing new criminal charges before November 1, 2023, to be 30.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively low, considering the ongoing investigations and potential for unexpected developments. However, the lack of public announcements and limited information on ongoing investigations might be contributing factors to this estimate. It's essential to consider the base rate of new charges being filed in similar cases and the potential for prosecutors to file charges without public announcements.

7. Final prediction: 
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will the closing price of Bitcoin (BTC) on Coinbase BTC-USD be between $40,000.00 and $42,500.00 (inclusive) 1 hour after the official announcement of the approval of the first Bitcoin spot ETF by the SEC, as per the 1-minute candle close price, if the approval is confirmed by January 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET?

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **Market Reaction to ETF Approval Uncertainty**: The market might not react positively to the ETF approval, or the reaction might be delayed, leading to a price outside the specified range. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **SEC Approval is Not a Guarantee**: Even if the SEC approves the ETF, it's possible that the market might not react as expected, or the approval might be conditional, leading to a price outside the range. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Market Volatility**: Bitcoin's price is known for its volatility, and a 1-hour time frame is relatively short, making it challenging to predict the market's behavior. (Strength: 8/10)
4. **ETF Approval Might Not be the Only Market Driver**: Other market events or news might overshadow the ETF approval, affecting the price of Bitcoin. (Strength: 5/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **ETF Approval is a Positive Development**: The approval of the first Bitcoin spot ETF is a significant event that could lead to increased institutional investment and adoption, potentially driving up the price of Bitcoin. (Strength: 9/10)
2. **Market Expectations**: Traders and investors might be expecting a positive reaction to the ETF approval, leading to a price increase within the specified range. (Strength: 8/10)
3. **Limited Time Frame**: The 1-hour time frame after the approval announcement is relatively short, allowing for a more contained market reaction, which could increase the likelihood of the price being within the specified range. (Strength: 6/10)
4. **ETF Approval Might Lead to Increased Liquidity**: The approval of the ETF could lead to increased liquidity and trading activity, which might help stabilize the price within the specified range. (Strength: 7/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Considering the reasons above, the likelihood of the price being within the specified range seems plausible, but there are also significant uncertainties and potential market reactions that could lead to a price outside the range. The strength of the "Yes" reasons seems to outweigh the "No" reasons, but the overall uncertainty is still relatively high.

**Initial Probability:**

Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the price being within the specified range as 55%.

**Evaluation and Final Prediction:**

Upon further consideration, I realize that the initial probability might be too high, given the significant uncertainties and potential market reactions. The base rate of the event (ETF approval) is also relatively low, which might affect the overall confidence in the prediction. Additionally, the market's reaction to the approval might be more complex and nuanced than initially considered.

Therefore, I would revise the initial probability to a more conservative estimate, taking into account the uncertainties and potential market reactions.

**Final Prediction:**

*0.40*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Fabiano Caruana finish in the top 3 of the 2023 FIDE World Cup? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Fabiano Caruana finishes in the top 3 of the 2023 FIDE World Cup. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The market may resolve immediately to "No" if it becomes impossible for Fabiano Caruana to win a top 3 position in the 2023 FIDE World Cup based on the rules of the tournament. Conversely, if it becomes a certainty that Fabiano Caruana will win a top 3 position in the 2023 FIDE World Cup, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes." If the 2023 FIDE World Cup top 3 are not decided by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament (e.g., XXXX), including live footage.

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No":

- Reason 1: Strong competition: The 2023 FIDE World Cup will feature many strong chess players, which increases the difficulty for Fabiano Caruana to finish in the top 3. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: Previous performance: Fabiano Caruana's past performances in the World Cup may not have been consistent enough to guarantee a top 3 finish. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 3: Potential upsets: Upsets can occur in any tournament, and Fabiano Caruana might face an opponent who beats him unexpectedly. (Strength: 7/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes":

- Reason 1: Fabiano Caruana's past performances: Fabiano Caruana has shown his skills and potential in previous tournaments, which could lead to a top 3 finish. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: His current ranking: As a top-ranked chess player, Fabiano Caruana has a good chance of making it to the top 3. (Strength: 9/10)
- Reason 3: His experience: Fabiano Caruana has experience playing in high-level tournaments, which could give him an edge over other competitors. (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of the reasons for both "Yes" and "No," I believe the most significant factor is Fabiano Caruana's current ranking and past performances. His experience and skills are likely to give him an advantage over other competitors. However, the strong competition and potential upsets are also significant factors that could affect his chances.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of Fabiano Caruana finishing in the top 3 of the 2023 FIDE World Cup to be 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, considering the strengths and weaknesses of the reasons for both "Yes" and "No." However, I should consider the base rate of the event, which is not explicitly mentioned. Assuming that finishing in the top 3 is a challenging task, the base rate might be relatively low. This could lead to a lower initial probability.

7. Final prediction:
After considering the base rate and the initial probability, I would adjust the final prediction to *0.55*. This reflects a slightly lower confidence in Fabiano Caruana's chances due to the strong competition and potential upsets.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will "Trump" be mentioned at least once by every participating candidate during the Republican National Committee (RNC) primary debate scheduled for September 27, 2023? The market will resolve to "Yes" if the word "Trump" or "trump" (including pluralization and possessive forms) is mentioned at least once by every participating candidate during the debate. The resolution source will be live video of the debate, with official transcripts and/or a consensus of credible reporting used to resolve any ambiguity. If the debate is cancelled or delayed beyond October 27, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No."

Reasons why the answer might be "No" (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

1. Debate format and moderation: The debate format and moderation style might focus on specific topics and candidates, potentially limiting the opportunities for candidates to mention "Trump." (Strength: 4)
2. Candidate strategy: Some candidates might choose not to mention "Trump" in an attempt to avoid controversy or maintain a more positive tone. (Strength: 6)
3. Debate topic focus: The debate might focus on policy issues rather than personal attacks or references to specific individuals, reducing the likelihood of "Trump" being mentioned. (Strength: 5)
4. Candidate pool dynamics: The pool of participating candidates might be relatively small, and some candidates might not feel the need to mention "Trump" to establish themselves. (Strength: 3)

Reasons why the answer might be "Yes" (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

1. Current political climate: The current political climate is highly polarized, and "Trump" is a prominent figure in American politics. It's likely that candidates will mention him to appeal to their base or criticize their opponents. (Strength: 9)
2. Campaign strategies: Many candidates have already mentioned "Trump" in their campaigns, and it's likely that they will continue to do so in the debate. (Strength: 8)
3. Debate format and audience: The debate will be live, and the audience will likely be composed of party loyalists who are eager to hear candidates discuss their views on Trump. (Strength: 7)
4. Media attention: The debate will receive significant media attention, and candidates will likely try to capitalize on this by mentioning "Trump" to generate attention and publicity. (Strength: 6)

Aggregated considerations:

While there are valid reasons why the answer might be "No," the current political climate, campaign strategies, and media attention suggest that it's likely that "Trump" will be mentioned by every participating candidate. However, the debate format, moderation style, and candidate pool dynamics might limit the opportunities for candidates to mention "Trump." I'll need to balance these factors to make an informed prediction.

Initial probability: 80

Evaluation of initial probability:

My initial probability of 80 seems excessively confident, considering the potential limitations on debate format and moderation. However, the current political climate and campaign strategies suggest that "Trump" will be a prominent topic. I'll adjust my probability to account for these factors.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the 2023 film 'Blue Beetle' gross more than $13 million domestically in the United States and Canada during the 3-day weekend from August 25 to August 27, according to the numbers reported by Box Office Mojo? The market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Blue Beetle' meets or exceeds this domestic box office milestone, and to "No" otherwise. If the final weekend box office data is not available by September 4, 2023, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible source will be used to determine the resolution. This prediction is based on the information available up to August 24, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- The movie 'Blue Beetle' is a relatively new release, and it might not have a strong marketing campaign or sufficient buzz to attract a large audience. (Strength: 6/10)
- The film might be competing with other popular movies or events during the weekend, drawing attention and viewers away from 'Blue Beetle'. (Strength: 7/10)
- The domestic box office has been experiencing a decline in recent years, which could impact the overall box office performance of 'Blue Beetle'. (Strength: 5/10)
- The movie's genre or target audience might not appeal to a broad enough demographic to generate significant box office revenue. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- 'Blue Beetle' has received generally positive reviews from critics, which could attract a loyal fan base and generate word-of-mouth buzz. (Strength: 8/10)
- The film's release in the summer season, when many people have more free time and are more likely to go to the movies, could work in its favor. (Strength: 6/10)
- The movie's budget and production values might be relatively low, allowing it to turn a profit even with a modest box office performance. (Strength: 5/10)
- The DC Comics brand and the success of previous DC Extended Universe movies might help 'Blue Beetle' attract a dedicated fan base and generate interest. (Strength: 9/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I think that the positive factors (positive reviews, summer release, DC Comics brand) outweigh the negative ones (competition, domestic box office decline, genre appeal). However, the strength of the reasons is not overwhelmingly in favor of a "yes" answer, and there are some concerns about the movie's marketing campaign and competition.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
My initial probability of 55% seems reasonable, considering the mixed factors at play. However, I should consider the base rate of movies grossing over $13 million in their opening weekend, which is relatively high. This might make my initial probability too conservative.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will X officially implement a policy requiring all users to pay a mandatory fee for accessing its platform by December 31st, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, as stated in the market resolution criteria?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating out of 10):
- X might not see a significant enough revenue increase from charging a mandatory fee to justify the potential backlash from users and loss of market share.
    (Strength: 6/10)
- The company might be concerned about the impact on user engagement and retention if they implement a mandatory fee.
    (Strength: 7/10)
- There could be regulatory hurdles or anti-trust concerns that prevent X from implementing a mandatory fee.
    (Strength: 4/10)
- X might be exploring alternative revenue models, such as subscription-based services or advertising, instead of a mandatory fee.
    (Strength: 5/10)
- The company might be waiting for a more favorable market or economic environment before making such a move.
    (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating out of 10):
- X might be struggling financially and sees the mandatory fee as a necessary measure to stay afloat.
    (Strength: 8/10)
- The company might be trying to reduce its reliance on advertising revenue and wants to diversify its income streams.
    (Strength: 6/10)
- X might be in a competitive market where charging a mandatory fee is a necessary move to stay competitive.
    (Strength: 5/10)
- The company might be looking to reduce its user base and only allow paying users, increasing its average revenue per user.
    (Strength: 4/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the most significant factors influencing the outcome are X's financial struggles and its desire to diversify its revenue streams. However, there are also valid concerns about user backlash, regulatory hurdles, and the impact on user engagement and retention.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would initially estimate the probability of X implementing a mandatory fee as 40%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon further consideration, I realize that my initial probability might be too low, given the potential financial struggles of X. However, it's also possible that the company might not want to take the risk of alienating its user base. Additionally, there are many companies that have successfully implemented mandatory fees without significant backlash.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl LVIII? Given the current NFL playoff bracket and the rules of the National Football League, what is the likelihood that the Indianapolis Colts will emerge victorious in Super Bowl LVIII? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Colts win the championship, and "No" if it becomes impossible for them to win the Super Bowl based on their performance in the playoffs. The market will be closed on February 10, 2024.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
   a. The Indianapolis Colts have not performed exceptionally well in the recent past, with a mediocre record in the 2023-2024 season. (Strength: 6/10)
   b. The Colts face stiff competition in their division and the NFL playoffs, which increases the likelihood of them being eliminated early. (Strength: 7/10)
   c. The Colts have struggled with consistency and have a history of underperforming in crucial games. (Strength: 5/10)
   d. The NFL is a highly competitive league, and even strong teams can be upset by weaker opponents on any given day. (Strength: 8/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
   a. The Colts have a talented young quarterback in their lineup, which could give them an edge in the playoffs. (Strength: 4/10)
   b. The Colts have made some savvy offseason moves to strengthen their roster, which could pay off in the postseason. (Strength: 5/10)
   c. The Colts have a solid defense, which is crucial in the playoffs, where teams often rely on their defense to make a deep run. (Strength: 6/10)
   d. The Colts have a good coaching staff and a strong team culture, which could help them stay focused and motivated in the playoffs. (Strength: 3/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I would say that the Colts face significant challenges in their pursuit of a Super Bowl victory. While they have some positive factors working in their favor, such as their young quarterback and solid defense, their recent performance and history of underperforming in crucial games give me pause. I would estimate that the Colts have a lower chance of winning the Super Bowl than many other teams in the league.

5. Initial probability:
Based on my aggregated considerations, I would estimate the Colts' chance of winning Super Bowl LVIII at around 15%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon reflection, I realize that my initial probability might be too low. While the Colts do face challenges, they are not an implausible contender. The NFL is a highly unpredictable league, and upsets can occur frequently. I should consider the base rate of Super Bowl winners and the fact that many teams have won the championship despite being underdogs. I would revise my initial probability to be slightly higher.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Confederate memorial at Arlington National Cemetery in Virginia, USA be completely removed by January 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, as mandated by the Defense Department, despite a federal judge's halt on the removal on December 19, 2023?

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-10, 1 being the weakest and 10 being the strongest):

1. The federal judge's halt on the removal could potentially lead to a prolonged legal battle, delaying the removal process. (Strength: 8)
2. The removal of the memorial may require significant logistical and financial resources, which could be a challenge for the Defense Department to complete on time. (Strength: 6)
3. There may be ongoing opposition to the removal from various groups, including some veterans and historical preservationists, which could lead to further delays or even a reversal of the decision. (Strength: 5)
4. The judge's decision to halt the removal could be appealed, potentially leading to a longer delay or even a reversal of the original mandate. (Strength: 8)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-10, 1 being the weakest and 10 being the strongest):

1. The Defense Department may find ways to work around the federal judge's halt and still complete the removal by the deadline, potentially using alternative means or seeking further clarification on the court's decision. (Strength: 7)
2. The Biden administration may use executive authority to override the federal judge's decision and proceed with the removal, although this would likely be a contentious move. (Strength: 9)
3. The removal of the memorial may be a symbolic gesture with minimal logistical requirements, allowing the Defense Department to complete it quickly despite the judge's halt. (Strength: 4)
4. The public and media pressure to remove the memorial could lead to a swift resolution, with the Defense Department feeling compelled to complete the removal by the deadline. (Strength: 6)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" outcome, I believe the likelihood of the Confederate memorial being removed by January 1, 2024, is relatively low. The federal judge's halt and potential for a prolonged legal battle are significant obstacles, but the Biden administration's executive authority and public pressure could potentially overcome these challenges. I will assign a moderate probability to the outcome.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of confidence:
My initial probability of 40% may be too low, considering the strong likelihood of the Biden administration using executive authority to override the judge's decision. Additionally, the removal of the memorial may be a symbolic gesture with minimal logistical requirements, making it more feasible to complete by the deadline. I may be underestimating the ability of the Defense Department to work around the judge's halt.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Nina Agdal be granted a restraining order against Dillon Danis by October 14, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Courts, with a consensus of credible reporting used as a secondary source. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nina Agdal is granted any type of restraining order against Dillon Danis by the specified date and time. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The question's resolution criteria are not applicable or available for this query.

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No":
- Reason 1: Lack of publicly available information on the case: If there is limited or no public information available about the case, it may be challenging to determine the likelihood of Nina Agdal being granted a restraining order. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: Restraining order process complexity: The process of obtaining a restraining order can be complex and time-consuming, and it's possible that Nina Agdal may not meet the necessary criteria or follow the correct procedures, leading to a denial of her request. (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 3: Dillon Danis' potential legal representation: If Dillon Danis has a skilled lawyer, it may be more challenging for Nina Agdal to obtain a restraining order against him, as they could argue against her claims and provide evidence to refute them. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 4: Limited context on Nina Agdal's motivations: Without knowing the specific circumstances surrounding Nina Agdal's request for a restraining order, it's difficult to assess the likelihood of her being granted one. If her reasons for seeking a restraining order are not compelling or are seen as frivolous, it may be denied. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes":
- Reason 1: Public figures often have access to legal resources: As a public figure, Nina Agdal may have access to experienced lawyers and resources that can help her navigate the legal system and increase her chances of obtaining a restraining order. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: Restraining orders can be granted in cases of harassment or threats: If Nina Agdal can provide evidence of harassment or threats from Dillon Danis, a court may grant her a restraining order to protect her safety and well-being. (Strength: 9/10)
- Reason 3: Courts prioritize victim safety: In cases where a person's safety is at risk, courts often prioritize granting restraining orders to protect the victim. If Nina Agdal can demonstrate that she is in danger, a court may be more likely to grant her a restraining order. (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both "Yes" and "No," it seems that the likelihood of Nina Agdal being granted a restraining order against Dillon Danis is moderate. The strength of the reasons for "Yes" (average strength: 8.33/10) outweighs the reasons for "No" (average strength: 5.5/10), suggesting that the possibility of a restraining order being granted is more likely than not.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the initial probability of Nina Agdal being granted a restraining order against Dillon Danis by October 14, 2023, to be around 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon further consideration, I realize that my initial probability might be too high. The base rate of restraining orders being granted is not publicly available, and there is a possibility that the case may not be as straightforward as initially thought. Additionally, the lack of publicly available information on the case and the complexity of the restraining order process may contribute to a lower probability. I should consider a more conservative estimate.

7. Final prediction:
*0.4*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the Federal Reserve, at its July 2023 meeting, decide to keep the upper bound of the target federal funds rate unchanged, resulting in no change (0 basis points) compared to its level prior to the meeting? The decision on the target federal funds rate is made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and the outcome will be determined by the FOMC's statement after its meeting scheduled for July 25-26, 2023. If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate remains the same after the meeting, the market will resolve to "Yes," otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The market may resolve as soon as the FOMC's statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by August 3, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

2. Reasons why the answer might be No (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The US economy is showing signs of slowing down, which might prompt the Fed to lower interest rates to stimulate growth (Strength: 4). 
- Inflation remains a concern, and the Fed might choose to keep interest rates high to combat inflationary pressures (Strength: 3).
- The labor market is strong, which could lead the Fed to keep interest rates high to prevent overheating (Strength: 3).
- There is a possibility of a recession in the near future, and the Fed might want to prepare for it by keeping interest rates high (Strength: 2).
- The Fed might want to maintain a tight monetary policy to combat global economic uncertainty (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be Yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The Fed has already raised interest rates significantly, and a pause might be necessary to assess the impact (Strength: 5).
- The economy is experiencing a period of high inflation, and a pause in rate hikes could give the Fed time to re-evaluate its stance (Strength: 4).
- The market is expecting a rate hike, but a pause could be a surprise that benefits the economy (Strength: 3).
- The Fed might want to give the economy time to adjust to the previous rate hikes before making further adjustments (Strength: 3).
- A pause in rate hikes could be seen as a sign of a more dovish Fed, which could boost the stock market (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons for a "No" outcome are stronger, with a total strength of 14 (4 + 3 + 3 + 2 + 2), while the reasons for a "Yes" outcome have a total strength of 13 (5 + 4 + 3 + 3 + 2). However, the strength of the reasons can be subjective and may not accurately reflect the likelihood of the outcome.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the answer being "Yes" to be around 40%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability seems reasonable, given the current economic environment and the Fed's recent actions. However, it is relatively low, which might be due to the strong reasons for a "No" outcome. Considering the base rate of the event, which is the likelihood of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged, it is relatively low. The Fed has been actively raising interest rates, and a pause would be a departure from its recent actions.

7. Final prediction:
*0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will A.P. Moller-Maersk resume all container shipments through the Red Sea by December 31, 2023, as announced on December 15, 2023, following Houthi attacks on international shipping? The primary resolution source will be official information from Maersk, and a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Maersk makes an official announcement to resume shipping through the Red Sea between December 18, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, and to "No" otherwise.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 8/10** - The Houthi attacks on international shipping are ongoing, and the situation in the Red Sea might not have improved sufficiently for Maersk to resume operations. This could be due to ongoing security concerns, damage to Maersk's infrastructure, or other logistical challenges.
- **Strength: 6/10** - Maersk might have decided to reroute their shipments through alternative routes, such as the Suez Canal or the Cape of Good Hope, which could be more secure and efficient. This would allow them to maintain their operations without directly addressing the security concerns in the Red Sea.
- **Strength: 4/10** - Maersk might be facing internal issues or operational challenges that prevent them from resuming shipments through the Red Sea. This could include issues with staffing, equipment, or other logistical matters that are not directly related to the security situation.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 9/10** - Maersk might have taken steps to address the security concerns and ensure the safety of their operations. They could have implemented additional security measures, such as increased naval escorts or more secure routes, to mitigate the risks associated with shipping through the Red Sea.
- **Strength: 7/10** - Maersk might have reached an agreement with other shipping companies or governments to provide additional security or support for their operations in the Red Sea. This could include joint naval patrols or increased military presence in the region.
- **Strength: 5/10** - Maersk might have decided to resume operations as a matter of business necessity, even if the security situation is not ideal. This could be due to the importance of maintaining their presence in the region or the potential costs associated with rerouting their shipments.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons provided, the balance of evidence suggests that the answer might be no. The ongoing security concerns and the potential for logistical challenges weigh heavily against a resumption of operations. However, the possibility of Maersk taking steps to address these concerns and the potential for business necessity to drive their decision also suggest that the answer might be yes.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of Maersk resuming shipments through the Red Sea by December 31, 2023, as 40.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 40 seems relatively cautious, given the potential for Maersk to take steps to address security concerns and the importance of maintaining their operations in the region. However, the ongoing security situation and logistical challenges also suggest that a resumption of operations might be uncertain. I did not consider the base rate of the event, as this is a specific scenario that is difficult to quantify.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the US soldier who crossed into North Korean territory on July 18, 2023, be released from North Korean territory and physically exit North Korean territory by July 25, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, based on official statements from the US government and a consensus of credible reporting?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Diplomatic tensions**: The situation might escalate due to diplomatic tensions between the US and North Korea, potentially hindering a swift release of the soldier. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 2: North Korea's historical behavior**: North Korea has a history of holding foreign nationals for extended periods, often using them as leverage in negotiations. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 3: Complexity of negotiations**: The release process might be complicated by the need for negotiations between the US and North Korea, which could take time. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 4: Potential for military action**: In extreme circumstances, the situation might escalate into a military conflict, preventing a peaceful release. (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: International pressure**: The international community might put pressure on North Korea to release the soldier, potentially leading to a swift resolution. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 2: Humanitarian concerns**: The US government might negotiate a release to prioritize the soldier's safety and well-being. (Strength: 9/10)
- **Reason 3: Previous releases**: North Korea has released US citizens in the past, suggesting a possible precedent for a peaceful resolution. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 4: US-North Korea communication channels**: The two countries have maintained communication channels, which could facilitate a release. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the balance of evidence suggests that the US soldier is likely to be released. The strong humanitarian concerns and previous releases by North Korea weigh in favor of a peaceful resolution. However, diplomatic tensions and historical behavior also pose potential risks.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the initial probability to be 70.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively confident, but it might be too high considering the potential risks associated with diplomatic tensions and North Korea's historical behavior. A more cautious approach might be warranted.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Donald J. Trump physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of Israel between October 19 and November 15, 11:59 PM ET, as per official information from Trump, his verified social media accounts, and official information from Israel, with a consensus of credible reporting serving as a secondary verification source?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 8/10**: Donald Trump's recent public appearances and activities have been limited, and he has not made any official announcements about visiting Israel during this timeframe. This lack of information could indicate that he has no plans to visit Israel.
- **Strength: 6/10**: Trump has been involved in various controversies and lawsuits, which might make it difficult for him to travel, especially internationally.
- **Strength: 4/10**: The current global situation, including potential travel restrictions or health concerns, might deter Trump from traveling to Israel.
- **Strength: 3/10**: Trump might have other priorities or commitments that prevent him from visiting Israel during this timeframe.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 9/10**: Donald Trump has a history of making surprise visits to countries, including Israel, which could increase the likelihood of him visiting Israel during this timeframe.
- **Strength: 7/10**: Trump's relationships with Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have been strong in the past, which could facilitate a visit.
- **Strength: 5/10**: Trump might use this visit as an opportunity to boost his public image or to support his political interests, especially given the upcoming US elections.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" outcome, it seems that the reasons for a "yes" outcome have slightly more weight, given Trump's history of surprise visits and his relationships with Israeli leaders. However, the lack of official announcements and the current global situation could still impact his travel plans.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be around 55.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems to be a reasonable estimate, given the mixed signals and uncertainty surrounding Trump's travel plans. However, it might be slightly too low, considering Trump's history of surprise visits and his relationships with Israeli leaders.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Vox win over 45 seats in the 2023 Spanish general election scheduled for July 23, 2023, in the Congress of Deputies (Congreso de los Diputados)? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vox obtains more than 45 seats in the Congress of Deputies. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, official information from the Spanish government and/or information published through the official website of the Kingdom of Spain's Ministry of the Interior (XXXX) will be used. The question will be resolved on July 24, 2023, based on the results of the election.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- Vox's popularity has been relatively stable in recent years, and there hasn't been a significant surge in support that would suggest they could exceed 45 seats. (Strength: 60%)
- The Spanish economy has been performing well, which might reduce the appeal of populist parties like Vox. (Strength: 40%)
- The other major parties in Spain, such as the PSOE and PP, have traditionally dominated the political landscape, and it's possible that they will continue to split the vote, making it difficult for Vox to reach 45 seats. (Strength: 80%)
- Vox's ideology might not resonate with a significant portion of the Spanish electorate, limiting their potential for growth. (Strength: 70%)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- Vox has been gaining popularity in recent years, especially among conservative voters. (Strength: 80%)
- The current political climate in Spain is uncertain, and Vox's anti-establishment stance might appeal to voters disillusioned with the traditional parties. (Strength: 60%)
- Vox has a strong grassroots organization and a charismatic leader, which could help them mobilize voters and exceed expectations. (Strength: 50%)
- The fragmentation of the Spanish political landscape might allow Vox to capitalize on the votes of voters who are dissatisfied with the other parties. (Strength: 40%)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the most significant factor is the fragmentation of the Spanish political landscape, which could benefit Vox. However, the stability of Vox's popularity and the potential for the other parties to split the vote also play a significant role. The economy and Vox's ideology are also relevant factors, but their impact is less certain.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Vox winning over 45 seats to be around 30%. This is a relatively low probability, given the uncertainty surrounding the election and the various factors at play.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 30% might be considered not confident enough, given the significant factors that could influence the outcome. However, it's also difficult to assign a higher probability without more information about the current state of public opinion and the election dynamics.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner Group, be arrested by July 15, 2023 (ET), according to a consensus of credible reporting, official information from governments involved, and statements from Prigozhin and Wagner's legal representatives?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- Prigozhin's close ties with the Russian government and military might protect him from arrest (strength: 8). As the founder of the Wagner Group, a private military company, Prigozhin has strong connections with the Russian government, which could limit the likelihood of his arrest.
- Prigozhin's current location and activities might be unknown or difficult to track (strength: 6). As a private individual, Prigozhin's movements and activities might not be publicly disclosed, making it challenging to determine whether he will be arrested by July 15.
- The Russian government might not consider Prigozhin's arrest a priority (strength: 5). The Russian government's priorities and actions might not focus on arresting Prigozhin, especially if he is seen as a useful asset or a minor figure in the larger context of the conflict.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- The international community's pressure on Russia to hold Prigozhin accountable might lead to his arrest (strength: 9). The international community's condemnation of Russia's actions in Ukraine and the Wagner Group's involvement in the conflict might create pressure on the Russian government to arrest Prigozhin.
- Prigozhin's public statements and actions might provoke a response from the Russian government (strength: 8). If Prigozhin continues to make provocative statements or take actions that are seen as detrimental to the Russian government, it could lead to his arrest.
- The Russian government's internal power struggles might lead to Prigozhin's arrest (strength: 7). The Russian government's internal power dynamics might shift, and Prigozhin's arrest could be a means to consolidate power or eliminate a potential rival.

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, the likelihood of Prigozhin's arrest by July 15, 2023, seems uncertain. While there are valid reasons to believe he might be arrested, there are also strong reasons to believe he might not be. The strength of the reasons for and against his arrest is relatively balanced.

5. Initial probability:

Given the considerations above, I would initially estimate the probability of Prigozhin being arrested by July 15, 2023, to be around 40%. This is a moderate estimate, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the situation.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

Upon reviewing my initial probability, I realize it might be too confident. The base rate of Prigozhin's arrest is difficult to determine, and there are many variables at play. A more conservative approach might be warranted. Additionally, the possibility of unexpected events or developments could significantly impact the outcome.

7. Final prediction:

Considering the uncertainty and the potential for unexpected events, I adjust my initial probability to *0.35*. This reflects a more cautious approach, acknowledging the complexity of the situation and the many factors that could influence the outcome.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Hamas release 12 or more hostages in a single 24-hour period between December 1, 2023, and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas releases 12 or more hostages in any 24-hour period between these dates. A negotiated release of hostages will also trigger a "Yes" resolution. The primary sources for resolution will be official information from Hamas, Israel, the United States, and/or the relevant nations to which any potential released hostages belong, as well as a consensus of credible reporting.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- Hamas may not see a significant enough incentive to release a large number of hostages in a short period, given their current goals and strategies (Strength: 4).
- Israel and other nations may not be willing to negotiate or provide concessions to facilitate a large-scale hostage release (Strength: 4).
- Hamas may be holding hostages for leverage in future negotiations, rather than releasing them in a single event (Strength: 4).
- The logistics and security risks associated with releasing a large number of hostages may be too great for Hamas to manage (Strength: 3).
- There may not be a significant international push or pressure to prompt Hamas to release a large number of hostages (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- International pressure and diplomatic efforts may lead to a negotiated release of hostages (Strength: 5).
- Hamas may seek to use a large-scale hostage release as a way to demonstrate their power and influence (Strength: 4).
- Israel or other nations may be willing to make concessions or trade-offs to secure the release of hostages (Strength: 4).
- A large-scale hostage release could be a way for Hamas to alleviate international criticism and pressure (Strength: 3).
- There may be a humanitarian crisis or other external factors that prompt Hamas to release hostages (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the balance of evidence suggests that a large-scale hostage release is possible but not highly likely. The strength of the "yes" arguments is somewhat stronger, particularly given the potential for international pressure and diplomatic efforts to facilitate a negotiated release. However, the "no" arguments also have significant weight, particularly the potential lack of incentive for Hamas to release hostages and the logistical challenges associated with such an event.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Hamas releasing 12 or more hostages in a single 24-hour period between December 1, 2023, and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET as 25.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 25 may be considered somewhat conservative, given the potential for international pressure and diplomatic efforts to facilitate a negotiated release. However, it is also cautious, given the significant logistical and strategic challenges associated with a large-scale hostage release. The base rate of hostage releases is also relatively low, which should be taken into account when evaluating the probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) of the United States reschedule marijuana from Schedule I to any other level or unschedule it completely by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, as per the US government's official information and credible reporting?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The DEA has historically been conservative in its scheduling decisions, particularly for substances with a history of abuse and potential for dependence, such as marijuana (Strength: 4).
- The Biden administration's stance on marijuana rescheduling is unclear, and the DEA may not have the necessary support from the White House to reschedule marijuana (Strength: 3).
- The DEA may be waiting for further research on the medical benefits and risks of marijuana before making a decision (Strength: 2).
- There may be concerns about the potential impact of rescheduling on public health and safety, particularly regarding youth access and potential for increased use (Strength: 2).
- The DEA may be hesitant to reschedule marijuana due to potential pushback from law enforcement and other stakeholders (Strength: 1).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- There is growing public support for marijuana legalization and rescheduling, which could influence the DEA's decision (Strength: 4).
- Several states have legalized marijuana for recreational or medical use, and the DEA may be pressured to align federal policies with state laws (Strength: 3).
- The 2020 Farm Bill already descheduled hemp, a cannabis derivative, and the DEA may be more likely to reschedule marijuana given this precedent (Strength: 3).
- Some lawmakers and advocacy groups have been pushing for marijuana rescheduling, which could lead to legislative pressure on the DEA (Strength: 2).
- The DEA may be considering the economic benefits of rescheduling, such as increased tax revenue and job creation (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the reasons above, it seems that the DEA's decision is influenced by a mix of factors, including public opinion, state laws, research, and potential economic benefits. However, the DEA's conservative approach and potential pushback from stakeholders may also hinder rescheduling. Overall, the balance of reasons suggests that rescheduling is possible but not guaranteed.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation of confidence: The initial probability of 40 may be too low, considering the growing public support for marijuana rescheduling and the DEA's recent actions (e.g., the 2020 Farm Bill). However, the DEA's conservative approach and potential pushback from stakeholders may still pose significant challenges. The base rate of the event (i.e., the DEA rescheduling marijuana) is difficult to estimate, but it's likely relatively low given the DEA's history.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Donald J. Trump be smiling in his first front-view mugshot released after the inception of this market, based on credible reporting and/or official information from law enforcement? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump is smiling in his mugshot and to "No" if he is not. If no mugshot is released by September 30, 2023 ET, this market will resolve to "No." The determination of whether Trump is smiling in his mugshot will be made by the market's decentralized resolver, UMA.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-10, with 1 being a weak reason and 10 being a strong reason):

- Trump's mugshot is typically taken after an arrest or a court appearance, and he has a history of being charged with serious crimes, which might make him appear somber or serious. (Strength: 6)
- Trump is 78 years old and may not be in the best physical or mental health, which could affect his facial expression in a mugshot. (Strength: 4)
- Trump has been known to be defensive and critical of law enforcement, which might lead him to avoid smiling in his mugshot to avoid being seen as cooperative or friendly. (Strength: 5)
- Mugshots are often taken in a formal setting, which might make people more likely to appear serious or stern. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-10, with 1 being a weak reason and 10 being a strong reason):

- There is no inherent reason why Trump would be prohibited from smiling in his mugshot, and people are often allowed to smile in their mugshots. (Strength: 8)
- Trump has a history of being confident and assertive, which could lead him to smile in his mugshot as a way to project a positive image. (Strength: 7)
- Some people might smile in their mugshots as a way to show a more relaxed or friendly side, even in a formal setting. (Strength: 5)
- Trump has been known to be a showman and might use his mugshot as an opportunity to project a positive image. (Strength: 9)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I think the likelihood of Trump smiling in his mugshot is higher than not. While there are some reasons why he might not smile, such as his history of being charged with serious crimes or his defensive nature, there are also strong reasons why he might smile, such as his confidence and showmanship.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 60 seems like a reasonable starting point, but it might be a bit too high given the seriousness of the context in which mugshots are taken. The base rate of people smiling in their mugshots is likely low, and Trump's history of being charged with serious crimes and his defensive nature might make him less likely to smile. I should consider this base rate and the seriousness of the context when refining my forecast.

7. Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the US federal government raise or suspend the current debt ceiling, as defined by Title 31 of the U.S. Code, § 3101, between May 16, 2023, and June 2, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported by credible sources such as the U.S. federal government's official website (XXXX) or other reliable news outlets?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength of each reason rated on a scale of 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

* The US Congress has a history of last-minute negotiations and votes on debt ceiling increases, which may lead to a delay or failure to raise the debt ceiling before the deadline. (Strength: 6)
* The current political climate in the US, with a divided government and ongoing partisan tensions, may hinder the ability of lawmakers to reach a consensus on raising the debt ceiling. (Strength: 8)
* The debt ceiling increase may be tied to other legislative priorities or budget negotiations, which could slow down the process or lead to a stalemate. (Strength: 5)
* The US government may attempt to use alternative measures, such as emergency funding or other accounting maneuvers, to avoid raising the debt ceiling. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength of each reason rated on a scale of 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

* The US government has a history of raising the debt ceiling to avoid defaulting on its debt obligations, and it is likely that lawmakers will find a way to do so again. (Strength: 9)
* The economic consequences of a US debt default would be severe, and lawmakers may be motivated to raise the debt ceiling to avoid these consequences. (Strength: 8)
* The Biden administration and Congressional leaders may be working behind the scenes to reach a deal on raising the debt ceiling, which could be announced before the deadline. (Strength: 6)
* The US economy is currently experiencing growth, which may give lawmakers more flexibility to negotiate and reach a deal on the debt ceiling. (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" outcome, I believe that the likelihood of the US government raising or suspending the debt ceiling before June 2, 2023, is relatively high. The strong motivation to avoid economic consequences and the historical precedent of raising the debt ceiling weigh in favor of a "yes" outcome. However, the current political climate and the potential for last-minute negotiations or alternative measures could still lead to a "no" outcome.

5. Initial probability:

Based on my aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of the US government raising or suspending the debt ceiling before June 2, 2023, to be 85.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

My initial probability of 85% may be overly confident, as it does not fully account for the uncertainty and potential for last-minute developments in the US government's negotiations. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of the US government raising or suspending the debt ceiling in any given year) is not explicitly provided, which could also impact the accuracy of my forecast.

7. Final prediction:

*0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a golfer contracted with LIV Golf win The Open Championship in 2023? This question will resolve to "Yes" if any golfer who has a contractual agreement with LIV Golf wins the tournament. The resolution of this question may be immediate if all remaining golfers in the tournament are contracted with LIV Golf or if there are no remaining golfers from LIV Golf. If the winner of the tournament is not decided by August 6, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this question will resolve to 50% likelihood. The primary source of information for resolving this question will be official announcements from The Open, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Reason 1: The Open Championship has historically been dominated by golfers from the PGA Tour and European Tour. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 2: LIV Golfers might not have the same level of experience and preparation as golfers from the traditional tours. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 3: The Open Championship is a major tournament that requires a high level of skill and course management, and LIV Golfers might not have the same level of expertise. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 4: The LIV Golf tour has been criticized for its format and player pool, which might affect the performance of its golfers in a traditional major tournament. (Strength: 2)
- Reason 5: The Open Championship has a strong field with many top-ranked golfers from the PGA Tour and European Tour, which might make it difficult for LIV Golfers to win. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Reason 1: Some LIV Golfers, such as Phil Mickelson and Brooks Koepka, have a strong track record of success in major tournaments. (Strength: 5)
- Reason 2: LIV Golfers have been competing in a series of tournaments with a similar format to The Open Championship, which might help them prepare for the major. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 3: The LIV Golf tour has attracted some top talent from the traditional tours, which might give its golfers an edge in a major tournament. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 4: The Open Championship is a major tournament that requires a high level of skill and course management, and some LIV Golfers have the ability to perform well in such events. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 5: The LIV Golf tour has been gaining popularity and attracting more top golfers, which might lead to an increase in the number of LIV Golfers competing in and winning major tournaments. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided above, the main factors that influence the likelihood of a LIV Golfer winning The Open Championship are their level of experience and preparation, their track record in major tournaments, and the quality of the field at The Open Championship. While there are some concerns about the format and player pool of the LIV Golf tour, some of its golfers have a strong track record of success in major tournaments. The strength of the field at The Open Championship and the level of competition might also affect the likelihood of a LIV Golfer winning.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I would estimate the initial probability of a LIV Golfer winning The Open Championship to be 30.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 30% might be considered not confident enough, given the presence of some strong LIV Golfers who have a good track record in major tournaments. However, the concerns about the format and player pool of the LIV Golf tour and the strength of the field at The Open Championship might also be valid. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a LIV Golfer winning The Open Championship in a typical year), it is relatively low, which might also influence the initial probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Drake's album 'For All the Dogs' have over 350,000 sales, including streaming equivalents, in its first week according to the HITS TOP 50 list found at XXXX, considering it as the primary resolution source? If the specified chart is unavailable or does not list 'For All the Dogs', another credible resolution source may be chosen. The question will be resolved according to the figure in the column titled 'TOTAL' once the list is finalized. The market will resolve from 'Yes' if the album meets the sales criteria and 'No' otherwise.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- Drake's past sales have been declining, and 'For All the Dogs' might not be as commercially successful as his previous albums (Strength: 6/10)
- The album might not receive as much mainstream attention or promotion as his previous releases (Strength: 5/10)
- The music industry has experienced changes in consumer behavior and streaming habits, which might affect album sales (Strength: 4/10)
- Drake's fanbase might be saturated, leading to decreased interest in his new album (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- Drake is a highly successful artist with a large and dedicated fanbase (Strength: 9/10)
- 'For All the Dogs' has been highly anticipated and received significant pre-release hype (Strength: 8/10)
- The album's release coincides with a peak in streaming activity, which could boost its initial sales (Strength: 7/10)
- Drake's previous albums have consistently performed well in their first week, indicating a strong potential for 'For All the Dogs' (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the points above, the main factors influencing the outcome are Drake's past success, the album's hype, and the current state of the music industry. While there are valid reasons for both a 'yes' and 'no' outcome, the evidence suggests that Drake's album is likely to perform well in its first week.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of 'For All the Dogs' having over 350,000 sales, including streaming equivalents, in its first week to be 80.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident given the uncertainty surrounding the music industry and consumer behavior. However, considering Drake's past success and the album's hype, it's not entirely unfounded.

7. Final prediction:
*0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Twitter allow unverified users to view more than 1000 posts per day by July 10, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Twitter relaxes its current restrictions on the number of posts unverified users can view per day, allowing them to see more than 1000 posts. If new unverified accounts are restricted to fewer than 1000 posts per day, but existing unverified accounts are not, this market will still resolve to "Yes". The primary sources of information for resolving this market will be official statements from Twitter, including those made by Elon Musk, as well as a consensus of credible reporting.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- Twitter may prioritize user safety and reduce the number of posts users can view to prevent the spread of misinformation and reduce the risk of harassment. (Strength: 4)
- Elon Musk may not want to increase the visibility of unverified accounts to maintain the platform's integrity and credibility. (Strength: 3)
- Twitter may be concerned about the potential impact of increased post visibility on user engagement and ad revenue. (Strength: 2)
- The current restrictions on unverified accounts may be in place to prevent spam and abuse, and relaxing them could lead to an increase in unwanted activity. (Strength: 4)
- Twitter's moderation policies may not be ready to handle the increased load of unverified users viewing more posts, leading to technical issues. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- Elon Musk has stated that he wants to make Twitter more user-friendly and increase its accessibility, which could include relaxing restrictions on unverified accounts. (Strength: 5)
- Relaxing the post limit could increase user engagement and attract more users to the platform. (Strength: 3)
- Twitter may see the benefits of allowing unverified users to view more posts as outweighing the potential risks, such as increased moderation costs. (Strength: 2)
- The current restrictions on unverified accounts may be seen as too restrictive and limiting, and relaxing them could improve the user experience. (Strength: 4)
- Twitter may be working on new features or tools to mitigate the risks associated with increased post visibility, such as improved moderation tools. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that the decision to allow unverified users to view more than 1000 posts per day is uncertain. However, Elon Musk's statements and Twitter's desire to increase user engagement and accessibility may suggest that the answer is more likely to be yes. The potential risks and concerns, such as user safety and moderation costs, may also be mitigated by new features or tools.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I would estimate the initial probability of the answer being yes to be around 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 may be too high, considering the potential risks and concerns associated with relaxing the post limit. However, Elon Musk's statements and Twitter's goals may suggest that the answer is more likely to be yes. A more conservative estimate might be around 40-50.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Threads, a social media app from Meta, become the #1 free iPhone app on the US iPhone App Store's "Top Free Apps" chart within a week after its launch, specifically by July 12, 2023, at 12 PM ET? This question will resolve to "Yes" if Threads is indeed the #1 free iPhone app at the specified time. The resolution source is the US iPhone App Store's "Top Free Apps" chart, which can be viewed here: XXXX. The Polymarket description will be updated with the #1 app at resolution time. Given the original question's resolution criteria is not applicable/available, no specific criteria are mentioned.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 8/10**: Threads might struggle to gain traction among users due to the already saturated social media market and the presence of established platforms like Instagram, which is also owned by Meta. The competition for users' attention and engagement might be too high for Threads to reach the top spot within a week.
- **Strength: 6/10**: The app's user interface and features might not be significantly different or appealing enough to draw users away from existing social media apps, making it difficult for Threads to gain a large user base and reach the #1 spot.
- **Strength: 4/10**: The launch timing might coincide with a period when users are less active or engaged with their iPhones, which could affect the app's visibility and adoption rate.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 9/10**: Meta has a large user base and existing social media platforms, which could provide a strong foundation for Threads to leverage and quickly gain popularity. This could lead to a rapid increase in downloads and user engagement, potentially propelling Threads to the top spot.
- **Strength: 7/10**: The app's AI-powered features, such as Remini - AI Photo Enhancer, might be highly appealing to users, especially those interested in photo editing and enhancement. This could attract a significant number of users and contribute to the app's rapid growth.
- **Strength: 5/10**: Meta might invest heavily in promoting Threads, using its existing user base and marketing channels to drive downloads and user engagement. This could lead to a significant increase in visibility and adoption rate, potentially putting Threads at the top of the charts.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the points above, the factors that contribute to a "yes" outcome seem to have a stronger weight, given Meta's existing user base and the potential appeal of the app's features. However, the competition in the social media market and the app's ability to differentiate itself are significant concerns. A balanced assessment suggests that while Threads has a good chance of reaching the top spot, it's not a guaranteed outcome.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I would initially estimate the probability of Threads becoming the #1 free iPhone app within a week after its launch at 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon reflection, I realize that my initial probability might be too low, given the strong foundation provided by Meta's existing user base and the potential appeal of the app's features. However, the competition in the social media market and the app's ability to differentiate itself are significant concerns that should not be underestimated. The base rate of new apps reaching the top spot within a week is relatively low, which might also influence the probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will a European team win the 2023 League of Legends World Championship, which is scheduled to take place in the latter part of 2023? This market will resolve to "Yes" if a team from the Europe region, such as MAD Lions, G2 Esports, Team BDS, or Fnatic, wins 1st place in the tournament. The primary resolution source for this market is official information provided directly from Riot Games (e.g. lolesports.com) and official footage of the tournament. If the winner of the Worlds 2023 is not determined by December 31, 2023 ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The question will be closed on November 19, 2023.

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 8/10):
1. Historical dominance of non-European teams: In recent years, teams from other regions, particularly Korea and China, have dominated the League of Legends World Championship. This trend might continue in 2023. (Strength: 6/10)
2. Strong competition from other regions: The LCK (Korea), LPL (China), and LCK (Korea) have consistently produced top-tier teams, which might make it challenging for European teams to win the championship. (Strength: 7/10)
3. Team performance variability: The performance of teams can be unpredictable, and even strong teams can have off days or seasons. This unpredictability might affect the chances of European teams. (Strength: 5/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 9/10):
1. European teams' recent improvements: Teams like MAD Lions, G2 Esports, and Fnatic have shown significant improvement in recent years, indicating a potential for them to compete at a higher level. (Strength: 8/10)
2. Strong team rosters: European teams have assembled talented rosters with experienced players, which could give them an edge in the competition. (Strength: 8/10)
3. Region-specific advantages: European teams might have an advantage in certain regions or stages of the tournament, such as the group stage, which could help them advance and ultimately win the championship. (Strength: 6/10)

Aggregated considerations:
While there are valid reasons to doubt the chances of European teams, there are also compelling arguments in their favor. The recent improvements and strong rosters of European teams suggest that they might be more competitive than in previous years. However, the historical dominance of non-European teams and the strong competition from other regions cannot be ignored.

Initial probability: 40%

Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively low, considering the recent improvements of European teams. However, the historical context and strong competition from other regions should not be underestimated. It's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is the overall probability of a European team winning the World Championship. This base rate is likely low, given the dominance of non-European teams in recent years.

Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively state that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by August 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, as confirmed through official government information or a consensus of credible reporting?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-10, with 1 being the weakest and 10 being the strongest):
- Lack of concrete evidence: There is currently no concrete evidence of extraterrestrial life or technology, which makes it difficult for the US government to confirm its existence. (Strength: 9)
- Government secrecy: The US government has a history of secrecy regarding sensitive information, which might lead to a reluctance to disclose any potential evidence of extraterrestrial life or technology. (Strength: 7)
- No compelling reason to disclose: Without a significant reason to disclose the information, the US government might not feel pressured to confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology. (Strength: 6)
- No credible leaks: There has been no credible leaks or whistleblowers within the government or military that could indicate the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology. (Strength: 5)
- The existence of extraterrestrial life might not be a priority: The US government might not consider the existence of extraterrestrial life a priority, which could lead to a lack of confirmation. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-10, with 1 being the weakest and 10 being the strongest):
- Increased interest in space exploration: The US government has been investing in space exploration and research, which might lead to the discovery of extraterrestrial life or technology. (Strength: 8)
- Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP): The US government has acknowledged the existence of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP), which might be related to extraterrestrial life or technology. (Strength: 9)
- Increased transparency: The US government has been working towards increased transparency, which might lead to a confirmation of extraterrestrial life or technology. (Strength: 6)
- Scientific breakthroughs: Recent scientific breakthroughs in the fields of astrobiology and exoplanetary science might lead to the discovery of extraterrestrial life or technology. (Strength: 7)
- Government announcements: The US government has made announcements about the possibility of extraterrestrial life, which might lead to a confirmation by August 31. (Strength: 8)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that the lack of concrete evidence and government secrecy are strong reasons why the answer might be no. However, the increased interest in space exploration, UAP, and scientific breakthroughs are strong reasons why the answer might be yes. The existence of extraterrestrial life might not be a priority, but the US government's increased transparency might lead to a confirmation.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of the answer being yes to be around 40%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40% seems reasonable, but it might be too low considering the recent interest in space exploration and the acknowledgment of UAP. However, the lack of concrete evidence and government secrecy are significant factors that need to be considered. The base rate of the event is also low, as there is no historical evidence of the US government confirming the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Emmett Shear remain in the official position of CEO of OpenAI through November 26, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, without stepping down, being replaced, or otherwise ceasing to hold the position, based on official OpenAI announcements or a consensus of credible media reporting?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated by strength of reason):

- **Reason 1: OpenAI's history of CEO changes**: OpenAI has undergone significant changes in leadership, with Sam Altman replacing Greg Brockman as the chairman of the board in 2022. This suggests that the company may be more prone to leadership changes, which could increase the likelihood of Emmett Shear stepping down. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 2: Industry pressure and scrutiny**: As a prominent AI company, OpenAI faces intense scrutiny and pressure from various stakeholders, including investors, regulators, and the public. This pressure could lead to Emmett Shear's departure, especially if the company faces significant challenges or criticism. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 3: Emmett Shear's background**: Emmett Shear's background is primarily in social media and online communities, rather than AI or technology. This could lead to concerns about his ability to lead a cutting-edge AI company, potentially resulting in his departure. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated by strength of reason):

- **Reason 1: Emmett Shear's tenure as CEO**: Emmett Shear has been CEO of OpenAI since 2022, and there is no public indication that he plans to step down. This suggests that he may continue in the position for the foreseeable future. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 2: OpenAI's growth and success**: Under Emmett Shear's leadership, OpenAI has experienced significant growth and success, including the release of the highly popular ChatGPT model. This could indicate that the company is satisfied with his leadership and is likely to retain him. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 3: Lack of public announcements**: There have been no public announcements or credible media reports suggesting that Emmett Shear plans to step down or has been replaced. This suggests that he remains in the position and is likely to continue as CEO. (Strength: 9/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons provided, the balance of evidence suggests that Emmett Shear is likely to remain CEO of OpenAI through November 26, 2023. The lack of public announcements or credible reports indicating his departure, combined with the company's success under his leadership, outweighs the potential concerns about his background and industry pressure.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of Emmett Shear remaining CEO of OpenAI through November 26, 2023, to be 85.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:

The initial probability of 85% may be considered moderately confident. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of CEO changes in the tech industry, which can be relatively high. Additionally, the lack of public announcements or credible reports may not necessarily indicate that Emmett Shear will remain CEO, as companies often do not publicly disclose leadership changes until they are finalized.

7. Final prediction:

*0.85*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.85
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Sergio Massa win the 2023 Argentina Presidential election by a margin of more than 5% in the second round, as determined by the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by Sergio Massa and Javier Milei, where valid votes are defined as votes cast for either Sergio Massa or Javier Milei, excluding votes that are blank, null, etc.? The percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each candidate receives by the sum of all valid votes received by both candidates. The resolution of this market will be based on official information from the Argentine government.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- Javier Milei has been gaining popularity and has a strong following among certain segments of the Argentine population (Strength: 6). His supporters might be motivated to vote for him in the second round, potentially reducing Massa's margin of victory.
- Argentina has a history of volatile politics, and it's possible that unforeseen events or controversies could sway voters away from Massa (Strength: 4).
- Milei's campaign has focused on economic issues, which might resonate with voters who are dissatisfied with Argentina's economic situation (Strength: 5).
- The second round of the election might see a higher turnout, which could benefit Milei if his supporters are more motivated to vote (Strength: 3).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- Sergio Massa has been the front-runner in the election, and his campaign has had a strong presence in various regions of Argentina (Strength: 8).
- Massa has the support of various political parties and coalitions, which could help him mobilize voters in the second round (Strength: 7).
- The Argentine economy has been experiencing difficulties, and Massa's campaign has focused on addressing these issues, which might appeal to voters who are concerned about the economy (Strength: 6).
- Massa has a strong organizational structure and a well-established network of supporters, which could help him in the second round (Strength: 9).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided above, it seems that both candidates have strengths and weaknesses. However, Massa's stronger organizational structure, broad support, and focus on economic issues give him an advantage. Additionally, the fact that he has been the front-runner in the election suggests that he has a strong foundation to build on. On the other hand, Milei's popularity and potential to sway voters with his economic message are significant challenges for Massa.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Sergio Massa winning by more than 5% to be around 70.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively high, considering the uncertainties surrounding the election. However, it's essential to remember that the base rate of the event is not explicitly provided. Assuming that the base rate is around 50% (i.e., Massa winning by more than 5% is a relatively rare event), the initial probability might be overconfident. Therefore, I would consider adjusting it downward to account for the uncertainty.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the uncertainties and the potential for unforeseen events, I would adjust the initial probability downward to 55. This takes into account the base rate of the event and the complexities of the election.

*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Cori Dionne "Coco" Gauff win the 2023 US Open Women's Singles tournament, considering her performance and any potential outcomes that could lead to her winning or elimination from the tournament? The market will resolve to "Yes" if she wins, and to "No" if it becomes impossible for her to win based on the US Open rules. The primary resolution source will be official information from the US Open (XXXX), with credible reporting also being used as a secondary source.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):

- **Reason 1: Competition from top-ranked players** (Strength: 8/10): The 2023 US Open Women's Singles tournament features a strong field with several top-ranked players, including Iga Świątek, Aryna Sabalenka, and Ons Jabeur, who have been performing well in recent tournaments.
- **Reason 2: Gauff's past tournament performance** (Strength: 6/10): While Gauff has shown impressive skills, she has not consistently performed well in Grand Slam tournaments, which might affect her chances of winning the US Open.
- **Reason 3: Gauff's potential draw** (Strength: 5/10): The draw can significantly impact a player's chances of winning a tournament. If Gauff faces a tough opponent early on, it might be challenging for her to advance to the later rounds.
- **Reason 4: Injuries or health issues** (Strength: 4/10): Any injuries or health issues that affect Gauff's performance could significantly impact her chances of winning the tournament.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):

- **Reason 1: Gauff's recent form** (Strength: 8/10): Gauff has been performing well in recent tournaments, showing improvements in her game and gaining experience, which could give her an edge in the US Open.
- **Reason 2: Gauff's skills and potential** (Strength: 9/10): Gauff is a talented player with a strong all-around game, which could help her overcome challenges and win the tournament.
- **Reason 3: Gauff's experience in Grand Slam tournaments** (Strength: 7/10): Although Gauff has not consistently performed well in Grand Slam tournaments, she has gained experience and learned from her past experiences, which might help her perform better in the US Open.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the factors that might lead to Gauff's elimination from the tournament (Reasons 1-4) have a combined strength of 23/40, while the factors that might contribute to her winning the tournament (Reasons 1-3) have a combined strength of 24/40. This suggests that the factors that might lead to her winning are slightly stronger.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of Gauff winning the US Open Women's Singles tournament to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% might be slightly too confident, given that the factors that might lead to her elimination from the tournament are still present. However, considering the strengths of the factors that might contribute to her winning, the initial probability seems reasonable. Additionally, the base rate of Gauff winning the US Open is relatively low, which should be taken into account when evaluating the probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 

Will any New York Times staff, including journalists or executives, face formal consequences (such as termination, suspension, or disciplinary action) as a direct result of the 'Israel strikes Gaza hospital' headline controversy by November 1, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This question will be resolved based on official announcements from The New York Times or confirmed reports from reputable news sources. Informal consequences, such as negative publicity, will not be considered.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- The New York Times has a history of correcting and apologizing for errors without taking disciplinary action against staff members (Strength: 6).
- The company may prioritize avoiding further controversy and negative publicity over taking disciplinary action against staff (Strength: 8).
- The newspaper industry is known for its editorial independence, and disciplinary action against staff might be seen as an overreach or an attempt to stifle free speech (Strength: 5).
- The New York Times might view the controversy as a minor mistake that does not warrant disciplinary action (Strength: 4).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- The New York Times has a strong commitment to accuracy and fact-checking, and disciplinary action might be taken to maintain journalistic standards (Strength: 9).
- The controversy surrounding the 'Israel strikes Gaza hospital' headline might be seen as a serious error with significant consequences, leading to disciplinary action (Strength: 8).
- The company may face pressure from readers, advertisers, or other stakeholders to take disciplinary action against staff members involved in the controversy (Strength: 7).
- The New York Times has a history of taking disciplinary action against staff members for errors or misconduct (Strength: 6).

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the reasons for both possibilities, I think the most significant factors are the New York Times' commitment to accuracy and fact-checking, the potential for disciplinary action in response to serious errors, and the pressure from readers and stakeholders. These factors lean towards a higher likelihood of disciplinary action.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of the initial probability: My initial probability seems relatively low, given the potential for disciplinary action in response to serious errors. However, considering the New York Times' history of correcting and apologizing for errors without taking disciplinary action, my initial probability might be too high. I should consider the base rate of disciplinary action in the newspaper industry and the specific circumstances of this case.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce break up by the end of the 2023-2024 NFL regular season (January 7, 2024, 11:59 PM ET)? The market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reporting confirms they have ended their romantic relationship, and to "No" otherwise. If the nature of their relationship is unclear, the market will resolve to the side with the stronger argument based on credible reporting.

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is strongest):

1. **Public Relationship**: Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce have been open about their relationship, which might indicate a strong commitment to each other. (Strength: 4)
2. **Media Attention**: As a high-profile celebrity couple, they may be under pressure to maintain a united front, especially considering their individual public images. (Strength: 3)
3. **Taylor Swift's Relationship History**: Taylor Swift has been known for her high-profile relationships and has often used her music to express her emotions. However, she has also shown a capacity for long-term relationships, such as with Joe Alwyn. (Strength: 2)
4. **Travis Kelce's Personality**: Travis Kelce is known for being a private person, which might indicate that he values his personal life and may be more likely to maintain a relationship. (Strength: 2)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is strongest):

1. **High-Profile Relationship**: As a celebrity couple, they are under constant media scrutiny, which can put pressure on their relationship. (Strength: 5)
2. **Touring Schedules**: Taylor Swift is a touring artist, and Travis Kelce has a demanding NFL schedule. The constant time apart could strain their relationship. (Strength: 4)
3. **Relationship Age**: Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce have been dating for a relatively short period, and their relationship may be in its early stages. (Strength: 3)
4. **Taylor Swift's Music**: Taylor Swift's music often reflects her personal experiences, including her relationships. If she were to write a song about a breakup, it could be a strong indication of the end of their relationship. (Strength: 2)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both possibilities, I believe that the high-profile nature of their relationship, their touring and NFL schedules, and the relatively short duration of their relationship are the most significant factors. However, Taylor Swift's history of maintaining long-term relationships and Travis Kelce's private nature could mitigate these risks.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation:
My initial probability of 60 might be considered not confident enough, as I have not taken into account the base rate of celebrity breakups. Celebrity relationships often have a relatively high failure rate, so it's possible that the base rate could influence the outcome.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will 'Barbie' (2023) gross more than $170,000,000 domestically on its 3-day opening weekend, as per the final values listed in the "Domestic Weekend" tab on XXXX, by July 24, 2023? If there is no final data available by July 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The film might not appeal to a broad audience, potentially limiting its box office potential. (Strength: 3)
- The film's marketing campaign might not be effective in generating sufficient interest among potential viewers. (Strength: 2)
- The film's release date might coincide with other popular movies or events that could draw attention away from 'Barbie'. (Strength: 4)
- The film's budget and production values might be too high to justify a massive opening weekend. (Strength: 1)
- The film's genre (drama/comedy) might not be as commercially viable as other genres, such as action or superhero movies. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- 'Barbie' has a well-known brand and IP, which could attract a large audience. (Strength: 5)
- The film's star-studded cast, including Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling, could draw in viewers. (Strength: 4)
- The film's marketing campaign has been extensive and well-promoted, potentially generating significant buzz. (Strength: 4)
- The film's themes of female empowerment and self-discovery might appeal to a broad audience, including families and young viewers. (Strength: 3)
- The film's release date is during a relatively slow period in the summer blockbuster season, giving it a clearer path to box office success. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the film has a strong chance of success due to its well-known brand, star-studded cast, and extensive marketing campaign. However, there are also potential drawbacks, such as the film's genre and release date, which could affect its box office performance. Overall, the reasons in favor of a successful opening weekend seem to outweigh those against it.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of 'Barbie' grossing over $170,000,000 on its opening weekend at 80.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively confident, but not excessively so. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is the typical opening weekend gross for a major Hollywood film. While 'Barbie' has a strong chance of success, it's still a relatively high bar to clear, and there are many factors that could affect its performance.

7. Final prediction:
*0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Magnus Carlsen finish in the top 3 of the 2023 FIDE World Cup? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Magnus Carlsen achieves a top 3 position in the 2023 FIDE World Cup. It will resolve to "No" if it becomes impossible for him to do so based on the tournament rules. If the top 3 positions are not decided by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the tournament, including live footage.

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No" and their strength:
- Reason 1: Magnus Carlsen's recent performance has been inconsistent, and he might struggle against stronger opponents in the FIDE World Cup. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: The FIDE World Cup features a large field of talented chess players, increasing the difficulty for Carlsen to secure a top 3 spot. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: Carlsen's age and potential fatigue might affect his performance in the tournament. (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 4: The FIDE World Cup's format and opponents could be challenging for Carlsen, potentially hindering his chances of a top 3 finish. (Strength: 6/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes" and their strength:
- Reason 1: Magnus Carlsen is a highly skilled chess player with a strong track record in major tournaments. (Strength: 9/10)
- Reason 2: Carlsen's experience and adaptability in high-pressure situations could help him navigate the FIDE World Cup and secure a top 3 spot. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 3: Carlsen's familiarity with the tournament format and opponents might give him an edge in the competition. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 4: Carlsen's training and preparation for the tournament could be sufficient to overcome potential challenges and achieve a top 3 finish. (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons for a "No" answer are somewhat plausible, but the strengths of the reasons for a "Yes" answer are significantly higher. Carlsen's skills, experience, and adaptability make him a strong contender for a top 3 spot. However, the large field of talented opponents and potential challenges in the tournament format could still affect his chances.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of Magnus Carlsen finishing in the top 3 of the 2023 FIDE World Cup to be around 70%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability might be considered somewhat confident, but it's not excessively so. The reasons for a "Yes" answer are strong, but the potential challenges in the tournament could still affect Carlsen's chances. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the general likelihood of a top player like Carlsen achieving a top 3 finish in a major tournament), the initial probability seems reasonable.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will President Biden physically set foot in Hawaii by Friday, August 18, 2023, 11:59 PM HST, as a response to the state's recent fires, given his statement on August 15 that he and his wife, Jill, plan to visit as soon as possible?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Strength: 6/10 - President Biden's schedule might be too packed with other pressing issues, such as domestic and international matters, to allow for a visit to Hawaii within the given timeframe.
- Strength: 4/10 - There might be logistical or security concerns that would make it difficult for the President to visit Hawaii by Friday, such as finding a suitable window for travel, accommodating his wife's schedule, or ensuring adequate security measures are in place.
- Strength: 3/10 - The President's statement might have been a general expression of sympathy and support, rather than a firm commitment to visit Hawaii.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Strength: 8/10 - The President has already stated his intention to visit Hawaii as soon as possible in response to the state's fires, indicating a clear commitment to supporting the affected area.
- Strength: 6/10 - Given the severity of the fires, it's likely that the President would prioritize visiting the area to show solidarity and support for the people affected.
- Strength: 5/10 - The President's visit could be a symbolic gesture to demonstrate the federal government's support for Hawaii, which might be beneficial for the state's recovery efforts.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the President's commitment to visiting Hawaii is a strong indicator of a "yes" answer. However, the potential logistical and scheduling challenges, as well as the possibility that his statement was a general expression of sympathy, introduce some uncertainty. The President's commitment and the symbolic value of his visit outweigh these concerns, but there is still a reasonable chance that the visit might not happen by Friday.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, as it reflects the balance between the President's commitment to visiting Hawaii and the potential challenges that might prevent him from doing so. However, it's worth considering the base rate of presidential visits to disaster areas, which might be relatively high. This could suggest that the probability of the President visiting Hawaii is higher than initially thought.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Dillon Danis pull out of his scheduled fight with Logan Paul, which is set to take place on October 14, 2023, as of the current date (August 17, 2023)? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dillon Danis officially announces his withdrawal from the fight through his representatives or via credible reporting from reliable sources. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution criteria are based on official statements from Dillon Danis or his representatives, and a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No" (Strength: 6/10):
- Dillon Danis has a history of speaking his mind and engaging in controversy, which might not necessarily indicate a likelihood of pulling out of the fight. 
- As a professional mixed martial artist, Danis might be committed to the fight and willing to put in the necessary work to prepare for the bout.
- Danis has a strong social media presence, and withdrawing from the fight might damage his reputation and popularity.
- The fight is scheduled for October 14, 2023, which is still several weeks away, giving Danis ample time to prepare and potentially overcome any issues that might arise.

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes" (Strength: 7/10):
- Dillon Danis has a history of being outspoken and has made several inflammatory comments in the past, which might put him at odds with his opponent, Logan Paul, or the event organizers.
- The intense media attention and scrutiny surrounding high-profile fights might take a toll on Danis' mental or physical well-being, potentially leading to a withdrawal.
- The fight is a high-stakes event, and the pressure to perform might be overwhelming for Danis, causing him to reconsider his participation.
- Logan Paul is known for his boxing skills and popularity, which might make Danis feel uncertain about his chances of winning.

4. Aggregated considerations:
While Dillon Danis has shown resilience and determination in the past, the intense media scrutiny and pressure surrounding high-profile fights might take a toll on him. However, he has a history of being outspoken and confident, which could indicate a willingness to face challenges head-on. The fight is still several weeks away, giving Danis ample time to prepare and potentially overcome any issues that might arise.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively moderate, reflecting the mixed signals from Danis' past behavior and the factors that might influence his decision. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of fighters pulling out of fights, which is relatively low. This might suggest that the initial probability should be adjusted downward.

7. Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Yahya Sinwar remain the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip uninterrupted from December 3, 2023, to December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, according to a consensus of credible reporting?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- Potential internal power struggles within Hamas (Strength: 6/10) - As with any organization, internal conflicts or disagreements among leaders can lead to a change in leadership.
- External pressures from other countries or organizations (Strength: 7/10) - Israel, the United States, or other countries might exert pressure on Hamas to change its leadership, potentially leading to Sinwar's removal.
- Health issues or personal reasons (Strength: 3/10) - Sinwar's personal health or family circumstances could potentially lead to his resignation or removal as leader.
- Other leadership contenders emerging (Strength: 5/10) - If other strong leaders within Hamas gain popularity or support, they might challenge Sinwar's leadership.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- Lack of credible challengers (Strength: 8/10) - If there are no strong, well-supported contenders within Hamas, it's more likely that Sinwar will remain the leader.
- Hamas's internal cohesion (Strength: 7/10) - If Hamas maintains a unified stance and Sinwar enjoys broad support within the organization, it's less likely that he will be removed.
- External factors not favoring a change (Strength: 4/10) - If external pressures or circumstances do not favor a change in leadership, it's more likely that Sinwar will remain in power.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the most significant factors pointing towards Sinwar remaining the leader are his lack of credible challengers and Hamas's internal cohesion. However, external pressures and potential internal power struggles could potentially lead to his removal. It's essential to weigh these factors and consider their likelihood of occurrence.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Yahya Sinwar remaining the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip from December 3, 2023, to December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, as 65.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively confident, but considering the uncertainty surrounding internal power struggles and external pressures, it might be slightly too high. However, without more information, it's challenging to adjust the probability significantly. A more conservative approach might be warranted, considering the potential risks involved.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will LeBron James, by July 31, 2023 11:59 PM ET, publicly state or imply that the COVID-19 vaccine could have caused his son Bronny James's cardiac arrest? This market will resolve based on verifiable statements made by LeBron James, and there is no additional context or criteria for resolution beyond his public statements.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- LeBron James might be cautious in his public statements regarding his son's health and avoid speculating on potential causes of the cardiac arrest. (Strength: 4)
- The medical community generally attributes cardiac arrests to a combination of factors, and LeBron James might be aware of this, leading him to avoid making a direct connection to the COVID-19 vaccine. (Strength: 4)
- LeBron James might prioritize supporting his son during a difficult time and avoid making public statements that could be perceived as critical of the COVID-19 vaccine. (Strength: 3)
- LeBron James might not have publicly discussed the potential causes of Bronny's cardiac arrest yet, but when he does, he might not attribute it to the COVID-19 vaccine. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- LeBron James has been an outspoken advocate for vaccination and public health, and if he believes the COVID-19 vaccine caused his son's cardiac arrest, he might feel compelled to speak out about it. (Strength: 4)
- LeBron James has been vocal about his concerns regarding vaccine safety in the past, and if he believes his son's cardiac arrest is related to the COVID-19 vaccine, he might make a public statement. (Strength: 4)
- LeBron James has a history of speaking out on social justice and health issues, and if he believes the COVID-19 vaccine caused his son's cardiac arrest, he might use his platform to raise awareness. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that LeBron James's public statements and history of advocacy for vaccination and social justice might contribute to a higher likelihood of him making a statement about the potential link between the COVID-19 vaccine and his son's cardiac arrest. However, the potential for him to avoid making a direct connection due to caution or the medical community's general understanding of cardiac arrests also presents a counterargument.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of LeBron James stating that the COVID-19 vaccine could have caused Bronny James's cardiac arrest to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon further consideration, I realize that the initial probability might be too high, given the potential for LeBron James to avoid making a direct connection to the COVID-19 vaccine due to caution or the medical community's general understanding of cardiac arrests. Additionally, the base rate of public figures speaking out about vaccine safety concerns is relatively low, which might further decrease the likelihood of LeBron James making a statement about the COVID-19 vaccine causing his son's cardiac arrest.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Kylian Mbappé join a Saudi club during the 2023 summer transfer window, which is scheduled to close on September 1, 2023? This question will be resolved based on official and credible announcements from either Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) or the signing club. If PSG announces a contract extension for Mbappé, or if the signing club announces that Mbappé has joined them but later retracts the statement, the market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the initial announcement.

Reasons why the answer might be "No" (with strength ratings):

1. **Mbappé's loyalty to PSG**: Mbappé has been with PSG since 2017, and his loyalty to the club might be a significant factor in his decision. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Financial considerations**: Mbappé is one of the highest-paid players in the world, and the financial benefits of staying with PSG or joining another top European club might outweigh the potential benefits of joining a Saudi club. (Strength: 8/10)
3. **Mbappé's career goals**: Mbappé has expressed his desire to win major trophies, and joining a Saudi club might not align with his career goals. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **UEFA's Financial Fair Play regulations**: The Saudi Pro League's financial resources might not be compliant with UEFA's Financial Fair Play regulations, which could impact Mbappé's decision. (Strength: 4/10)

Reasons why the answer might be "Yes" (with strength ratings):

1. **Financial incentives**: The Saudi Pro League's massive financial resources could offer Mbappé a significant increase in salary and other benefits. (Strength: 9/10)
2. **Mbappé's desire for a new challenge**: Mbappé has expressed a desire to take on new challenges, and joining a Saudi club could provide him with a fresh start. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Lack of Champions League success**: PSG has not won the Champions League since 2020, and Mbappé might see joining a Saudi club as an opportunity to win major trophies. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Mbappé's influence on the Saudi Pro League**: Mbappé's arrival could bring significant attention and credibility to the Saudi Pro League, making it a more attractive destination for top players. (Strength: 3/10)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for and against Mbappé joining a Saudi club, I believe that the financial incentives and Mbappé's desire for a new challenge are significant factors in his decision. However, his loyalty to PSG, financial considerations, and career goals might also play a role. I will assign a weight of 60% to the reasons in favor of Mbappé joining a Saudi club and 40% to the reasons against.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of the initial probability:

My initial probability of 40% seems relatively low, considering the significant financial incentives offered by the Saudi Pro League. However, I am also considering the potential drawbacks of joining a Saudi club, such as the lack of Champions League competition and the potential impact on Mbappé's career goals. I will revisit my probability after considering the base rate of the event.

Base rate consideration:

The base rate of top players joining the Saudi Pro League is relatively low, with only a few high-profile signings in recent years. This might indicate that Mbappé's decision is not a certainty, and I should adjust my probability accordingly.

Final probability: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Donald J. Trump be elected as the next permanent Speaker of the House of Representatives in the United States after Kevin McCarthy's ousting on October 3, 2023, by the end of the 118th Congress on June 30, 2024, according to official US government sources and credible reporting? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump is formally elected as the Speaker, excluding any temporary or unelected Speakers such as the Speaker Pro Tempore. If a new Speaker is not elected by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

Reasons why the answer might be "No" (rated on a scale of 1-10, with 1 being a weak reason and 10 being a strong reason):

1. **Party dynamics and infighting**: The Republican Party has shown signs of infighting and divisions, which might hinder Trump's chances of becoming Speaker. (Strength: 6)
2. **Lack of support from moderate Republicans**: Some moderate Republicans might not support Trump's candidacy due to his polarizing figure and past controversies. (Strength: 5)
3. **Potential opposition from Democrats**: Democrats might use their votes to block Trump's election, either to weaken the Republican Party or to maintain their own power. (Strength: 4)
4. **Procedural hurdles**: The Speaker election process involves a complex set of rules and procedures, which might create obstacles for Trump's candidacy. (Strength: 3)

Reasons why the answer might be "Yes" (rated on a scale of 1-10, with 1 being a weak reason and 10 being a strong reason):

1. **Trump's popularity among Republicans**: Trump remains a popular figure within the Republican Party, which could give him a strong base of support. (Strength: 8)
2. **Trump's ability to mobilize his base**: Trump has a proven track record of mobilizing his supporters, which could help him win over undecided Republicans. (Strength: 9)
3. **Republican Party's desire for unity**: The Republican Party might see Trump's election as a way to unify the party and present a unified front against Democrats. (Strength: 7)
4. **Trump's experience in negotiations**: Trump has experience negotiating with politicians and might be able to navigate the complex Speaker election process effectively. (Strength: 6)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, I think the outcome is uncertain but slightly leans towards "No." The Republican Party's infighting and potential opposition from moderate Republicans and Democrats create obstacles for Trump's candidacy. However, Trump's popularity among Republicans and his ability to mobilize his base give him a strong foundation. I will need to weigh these factors to make a prediction.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of initial probability:

My initial probability of 40 seems relatively cautious, considering the potential for Trump's popularity and his ability to mobilize his base. However, the Republican Party's infighting and potential opposition from Democrats and moderate Republicans might still hinder his chances. I might be underestimating the strength of these obstacles.

Final prediction: *0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the total number of times the words "Ukraine" (including "Ukrainian" and its pluralization/possessive forms) are mentioned by the invited candidates during the RNC primary debate scheduled for December 6, 2023, be 8 or more? If the debate is cancelled or delayed beyond December 12, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is live video of the debate, with official transcript and/or credible reporting used in case of ambiguity.

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No":
- The debate may focus on domestic issues, with relatively little discussion on Ukraine. (Strength: 6/10)
- The candidates may be cautious in their discussion of Ukraine to avoid controversy or alienating voters. (Strength: 5/10)
- The debate may be heavily moderated, limiting the time for candidates to discuss Ukraine. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes":
- Ukraine has been a significant topic in recent US politics, with ongoing military aid and diplomatic efforts. (Strength: 8/10)
- The debate may be an opportunity for candidates to demonstrate their foreign policy expertise and stance on Ukraine. (Strength: 7/10)
- The candidates may feel pressure to address Ukraine to appeal to a specific demographic or voter bloc. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the recent significance of Ukraine in US politics, the debate's potential focus on foreign policy, and the candidates' desire to demonstrate their expertise, it seems likely that the topic will be discussed extensively. However, the debate's moderation, potential focus on domestic issues, and candidates' caution may limit the number of mentions. Overall, the balance of factors suggests a moderate likelihood of the answer being "Yes."

5. Initial probability:
60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 may be too low, considering the significance of Ukraine in recent US politics. The base rate of the event (the debate occurring and candidates discussing Ukraine) is likely high, and the factors suggesting a low probability may be overstated. A more realistic estimate might be higher, but without more information, 60 seems like a reasonable starting point.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will 'Joy Ride' (2023) gross more than $13,500,000 on its 3-day opening weekend (July 07 - July 09) domestically, according to the final data available from a credible source such as Box Office Mojo, with the Domestic Weekend tab on XXXX being used to resolve this market? This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Joy Ride' (2023) grosses more than $13,500,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Opening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release.

Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

1. **Lack of well-known cast or franchise**: The film 'Joy Ride' (2023) may not have a well-known cast or be part of a popular franchise, which could negatively impact its box office performance. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Competition from other releases**: There might be other films released around the same time as 'Joy Ride' (2023) that could draw audiences away from it, making it harder for the film to reach the $13.5 million mark. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Genre-specific audience**: 'Joy Ride' (2023) might be a film that appeals to a niche audience, which could limit its box office potential and make it harder to reach the $13.5 million mark. (Strength: 4/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

1. **Summer blockbuster season**: The film's release in July coincides with the summer blockbuster season, which is typically a peak time for movie releases and box office earnings. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Marketing and promotion**: The film's marketing and promotion efforts might be effective in generating buzz and attracting a large audience, leading to a strong opening weekend. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Potential for word-of-mouth**: If 'Joy Ride' (2023) receives positive reviews or has a strong trailer, it could generate positive word-of-mouth, leading to a successful opening weekend. (Strength: 6/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the factors mentioned above, it seems that the film has some potential for success, but there are also some challenges to overcome. The summer blockbuster season and marketing efforts could help the film reach a large audience, but the lack of a well-known cast or franchise and competition from other releases could hinder its box office performance.

Initial probability: 55

Evaluation:
The calculated probability of 55% seems to be a reasonable estimate based on the factors considered. However, it's worth noting that the base rate of films grossing over $13.5 million on their opening weekend is not provided, which could affect the forecast. Additionally, the strength of the reasons provided for both a "yes" and "no" answer might be subjective and open to interpretation.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the closing price of the 1-minute candle for ETH-USD on Coinbase on August 31, 2023, at 23:59 in the ET timezone be at or above $2,000? The resolution will be based on the closing price provided by Coinbase at the specified time, and not on any other sources or spot markets. This question will resolve to "Yes" if the closing price meets or exceeds $2,000.01, and to "No" otherwise.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strongest to weakest):

- The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and ETH-USD prices can fluctuate rapidly. This volatility might lead to a price drop below $2,000 before the specified time. (Strength: 8/10)
- Historical trends might not be indicative of future performance, but ETH-USD has experienced significant price drops in the past. (Strength: 6/10)
- Global economic factors, regulatory changes, or other external events could negatively impact the cryptocurrency market, causing ETH-USD to decline. (Strength: 5/10)
- The market might be experiencing a natural correction or consolidation phase, leading to a price drop. (Strength: 4/10)
- The question's resolution relies on the specific Coinbase ETH-USD closing price, which might not accurately reflect the market's overall sentiment or other sources. (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strongest to weakest):

- The cryptocurrency market has experienced significant growth in recent years, and ETH-USD has been gaining value. (Strength: 8/10)
- ETH-USD has shown resilience and the ability to recover from price drops in the past. (Strength: 7/10)
- Positive sentiment, adoption, and interest in cryptocurrencies could drive the price up. (Strength: 6/10)
- The market might be experiencing a bull run, leading to an increase in prices. (Strength: 5/10)
- The question's resolution is based on a specific time frame and might not accurately capture the market's overall trend or sentiment. (Strength: 3/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The market's volatility, historical trends, and external factors could both positively and negatively impact the price. However, the cryptocurrency market's growth and resilience suggest a potential for the price to remain stable or increase. Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that the factors pointing to a price increase are slightly stronger.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 55 seems reasonable given the mixed signals from both the "yes" and "no" reasons. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as the cryptocurrency market is known for its unpredictability. A more cautious approach would be to consider a lower probability, acknowledging the potential for unexpected events or price movements.

7. Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Elon Musk be named the TIME Person of the Year for 2023, either alone or in conjunction with another person or thing, according to any official announcement made by TIME magazine by January 15, 2024 (11:59 PM ET), and if not, will this market resolve to "No"? If TIME magazine's cover and other webpages have different winners for the Person of the Year, only one of them needs to mention Elon Musk as the winner for this market to resolve to "Yes".

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reason 1: Elon Musk has been a polarizing figure, and his controversies might deter TIME magazine from selecting him as the Person of the Year. (Strength: 4/10)
- Reason 2: TIME magazine has a history of selecting a diverse range of individuals and groups as the Person of the Year, and Elon Musk might not be the most fitting choice for 2023. (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 3: The Person of the Year selection process is subjective and influenced by various factors, including current events, social movements, and cultural trends. Elon Musk might not be the most relevant or impactful figure in 2023, making him an unlikely choice. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 4: TIME magazine has not consistently chosen business leaders or entrepreneurs as the Person of the Year in the past, which might reduce the likelihood of Elon Musk being selected. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Reason 1: Elon Musk has been a dominant figure in the tech industry and has made significant contributions to space exploration, electric cars, and renewable energy, making him a strong contender for the Person of the Year award. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: Musk's leadership in the Twitter acquisition and his efforts to shape the platform's direction might make him a relevant choice for the Person of the Year. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 3: TIME magazine often selects individuals who have had a significant impact on the world, and Elon Musk's achievements and influence in various fields make him a strong candidate. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 4: The Person of the Year selection process is often influenced by current events, and Elon Musk's involvement in high-profile projects and controversies might make him a newsworthy choice. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons provided, the balance of evidence suggests that Elon Musk has a strong chance of being named the TIME Person of the Year for 2023. While there are valid reasons to doubt his selection, his achievements and influence in various fields make him a compelling candidate.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I estimate the probability of Elon Musk being named the TIME Person of the Year for 2023 as 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 might be considered moderately confident, but it could be adjusted based on the base rate of the event. Historically, TIME magazine has chosen a wide range of individuals and groups as the Person of the Year, making it difficult to predict with certainty. However, considering Elon Musk's significant influence and achievements, the initial probability might be on the lower end of the confidence spectrum.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the next Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's ousting be elected by October 10, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, as per the standard procedures and definitions outlined in the question, excluding any unelected or temporary Speakers, such as the Speaker Pro Tempore?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-10, 10 being the strongest):

* The U.S. House of Representatives may be unable to reach a consensus on a new Speaker, leading to a prolonged process (Strength: 6). This is a possibility given the current polarization in the House and the challenges in finding a candidate that can garner enough support.
* The Republican Party may face internal divisions, making it difficult to agree on a new Speaker (Strength: 7). The party's internal dynamics and potential factions may hinder the process.
* The Democrats may try to delay or obstruct the Speaker election process, which could prolong the resolution (Strength: 4). While this is possible, it's not a guaranteed outcome, and the Democrats' ability to do so would depend on various factors.
* The Speaker election process may be impacted by external factors, such as a government shutdown or other national crises, which could divert attention and energy away from the Speaker election (Strength: 3). While possible, this is a relatively low-probability scenario.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-10, 10 being the strongest):

* The House Republicans may be able to come together and elect a new Speaker quickly, potentially even before the October 10 deadline (Strength: 8). This is a plausible outcome given the need for the House to function and pass legislation.
* Kevin McCarthy's ousting may create an opportunity for a more consensus-driven Speaker election, which could lead to a faster resolution (Strength: 7). The circumstances surrounding McCarthy's ousting may lead to a more collaborative approach.
* The House leadership may be motivated to elect a new Speaker promptly to restore stability and normalcy to the legislative process (Strength: 9). This is a strong reason, as the House needs a functioning Speaker to pass legislation and conduct its business.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the most significant factors are the internal dynamics of the Republican Party and the need for the House to function. While there are valid reasons for the answer to be no, the likelihood of a prolonged process is lower than the possibility of a relatively quick election. The House Republicans may be able to come together and elect a new Speaker, and the circumstances surrounding McCarthy's ousting may lead to a more consensus-driven approach.

5. Initial probability: 65

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 65 seems reasonable, given the considerations above. However, it may be considered not confident enough, as the factors favoring a quick election are stronger. The base rate of the event is also relatively high, as Speaker elections are typically resolved within a short period.

7. Final prediction: *0.85*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.85
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the Coalition of the Radical Left – Progressive Alliance (Syriza, ΣΥΡΙΖΑ) receive a greater number of votes than the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK, ΠΑΣΟΚ) in the 2023 Greek legislative election scheduled for June 25, as per the official results announced by the Hellenic Republic's Ministry of the Interior or credible media reports? This question will be resolved based on the final official count and may not consider any potential recounts or disputed results.

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. PASOK has historically been a significant player in Greek politics and has maintained a strong presence in the country's political landscape (Strength: 4). Given their experience and established base, it's plausible they could retain a substantial number of votes.
2. Syriza's popularity may have waned since their last electoral success in 2015, and they might not be as strong as they once were (Strength: 3). This could give PASOK an advantage in terms of voter support.
3. PASOK might have made significant campaign promises and alliances that could attract voters away from Syriza (Strength: 2). If successful, this could lead to PASOK receiving more votes than Syriza.
4. The current economic situation in Greece might not favor Syriza's policies, potentially leading to a decrease in their vote share (Strength: 4). If voters are more concerned with economic stability, they might opt for PASOK's more moderate approach.

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. Syriza has maintained a strong anti-austerity stance, which could appeal to voters dissatisfied with the current economic situation (Strength: 5). If voters are looking for a change, Syriza's platform might attract more support.
2. Syriza has a strong presence in certain regions of Greece, particularly in the north, where they have a significant following (Strength: 4). This regional support could translate into a higher number of votes.
3. PASOK's leadership and campaign might not be as effective as Syriza's, potentially giving the latter an advantage (Strength: 3). If PASOK's campaign is perceived as weak, Syriza might capitalize on this and gain more votes.
4. Syriza's emphasis on social welfare and progressive policies might resonate with younger voters and those seeking change (Strength: 4). If Syriza can mobilize these groups effectively, they could gain a significant advantage.

Aggregated considerations: Considering the strengths of both parties, their historical performance, and the current economic situation, it's challenging to make a definitive prediction. However, Syriza's strong anti-austerity stance and regional support might give them an edge. On the other hand, PASOK's experience and potential campaign promises could attract voters. Given these factors, I would initially estimate a probability of Syriza receiving more votes than PASOK.

Initial probability: 55

Evaluation of the calculated probability: The initial probability of 55% might be considered somewhat conservative, given Syriza's strong stance on anti-austerity and their regional support. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of Syriza's success in previous elections and the potential for PASOK to adapt and respond effectively to Syriza's campaign. A more accurate prediction would require further analysis of the current campaign dynamics, voter sentiment, and any potential external factors that might influence the outcome.

Final prediction: *0.58*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.58
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the ongoing United Auto Workers (UAW) strike end by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, according to official information from the UAW (XXXX) and a consensus of credible reporting? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the strike ends by the specified deadline, and to "No" if it does not.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strongest to weakest):
   1. **Strongest:** The UAW and the automakers (e.g., Ford, General Motors, Stellantis) have not reached a tentative agreement, indicating a potential for a prolonged strike. (Strength: 8/10)
   2. The UAW's previous strikes have been marked by tense negotiations, which might lead to a prolonged strike. (Strength: 6/10)
   3. The automakers might not be willing to meet the UAW's demands, leading to a stalemate. (Strength: 5/10)
   4. The strike could be influenced by external factors, such as the US economy or global events, which might prolong the strike. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strongest to weakest):
   1. **Strongest:** The UAW and the automakers have a history of reaching agreements, and a resolution might be reached before the deadline. (Strength: 8/10)
   2. The UAW has been actively negotiating with the automakers, which might lead to a swift resolution. (Strength: 6/10)
   3. The automakers might be willing to compromise on certain issues to avoid further disruptions. (Strength: 5/10)
   4. The UAW and the automakers might use mediation or arbitration to resolve disputes, which could lead to a quick resolution. (Strength: 4/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The UAW and the automakers have a history of reaching agreements, but the current negotiations have been tense. The UAW's previous strikes have been marked by prolonged negotiations, and the automakers might not be willing to meet the UAW's demands. However, the UAW and the automakers have been actively negotiating, and mediation or arbitration might be used to resolve disputes.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of the UAW strike ending by October 31, 2023, at 60.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability might be slightly too confident, given the uncertainty surrounding the negotiations. However, the UAW and the automakers have a history of reaching agreements, which might lead to a resolution before the deadline. The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of the strike ending within the specified timeframe) is not available, but it is likely to be relatively low, given the complexity of the negotiations.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Joe Biden be the President of the United States on December 1, 2023, 12 PM ET, as officially substantiated by US government sources such as the White House website (XXXX) and other official government sources? This question will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden is still serving as the President of the United States on December 1, 2023, and "No" if he is no longer serving as President at that time.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Joe Biden's age and health: As President Biden is 80 years old in 2023, there is a possibility of health issues that could lead to his resignation or incapacitation (strength: 3).
- Potential impeachment: Although highly unlikely, there is a possibility of impeachment proceedings against President Biden (strength: 2).
- Presidential term limits: Joe Biden's term as President ends on January 20, 2025, but there is a possibility of him resigning or being removed from office before that (strength: 2).
- Unexpected events: There might be unforeseen circumstances, such as a national emergency or a significant scandal, that could lead to his resignation or removal (strength: 4).
- Vice President Harris's ascension: If President Biden resigns or is removed from office, Vice President Kamala Harris would become the new President (strength: 1).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Joe Biden's commitment to serving his full term: President Biden has stated his intention to serve his full four-year term (strength: 4).
- Lack of clear opposition: There is no clear candidate or party that has announced plans to challenge President Biden for the presidency (strength: 3).
- No significant scandals: President Biden has not been involved in any major scandals that could lead to his resignation or removal (strength: 2).
- Vice President Harris's loyalty: Vice President Harris has publicly expressed her loyalty to President Biden and has not indicated any plans to challenge him (strength: 2).
- Constitutional and legal framework: The US Constitution and laws provide a clear process for the peaceful transfer of power, making it unlikely that President Biden would be removed from office without going through this process (strength: 5).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided above, the most significant factors contributing to the likelihood of President Biden still being in office on December 1, 2023, are his commitment to serving his full term, the lack of clear opposition, and the constitutional and legal framework that protects his presidency. However, there are also potential risks, such as his age and health, impeachment, and unforeseen events, that could lead to his removal from office.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of President Biden still being in office on December 1, 2023, to be around 85%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 85% may be excessively confident, given the potential risks and uncertainties associated with President Biden's presidency. However, it is also not confident enough, considering the strong reasons in favor of him serving his full term.

7. Final prediction:
*0.8*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.8
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3' (2023) gross over $10 million on its 3-day opening weekend, as per the Domestic Weekend tab on Box Office Mojo, when the final values for the weekend (September 8-10) are available? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the film's opening weekend domestic box office gross exceeds $10 million. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The opening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. If there is no final data available by September 17, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Franchise fatigue**: The first two films in the series were released in 2002 and 2016, respectively. A 7-year gap between the second and third installments might lead to a decrease in interest and a lower box office performance. Strength: 6/10
2. **Competition from other September releases**: September is a relatively quiet month for movie releases, but there might be other films that could draw attention and audience share away from 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3.' Strength: 5/10
3. **Changing audience preferences**: The film industry has evolved significantly since the release of the first two films, with changing audience preferences and tastes. The third installment might not resonate with the same audience as the original. Strength: 4/10
4. **Marketing and promotion**: The effectiveness of the marketing campaign for 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3' could be a significant factor in its box office performance. If the marketing efforts are not sufficient, the film might not reach its full potential. Strength: 6/10

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Brand recognition and fan base**: The 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding' franchise has a dedicated fan base, and the third installment might attract a loyal audience. Strength: 8/10
2. **Positive word-of-mouth and reviews**: If the film receives positive reviews and word-of-mouth, it could lead to a strong opening weekend. Strength: 7/10
3. **Nostalgia and cultural relevance**: The film's themes of family, culture, and love might resonate with audiences, especially during a time when people are looking for feel-good movies. Strength: 8/10
4. **Strong marketing and promotion**: If the marketing campaign is well-executed and effective, it could generate significant buzz and interest in the film. Strength: 8/10

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I weigh the factors as follows:

* Brand recognition and fan base (8/10) and nostalgia and cultural relevance (8/10) are strong positives.
* Positive word-of-mouth and reviews (7/10) and strong marketing and promotion (8/10) are also significant factors.
* Franchise fatigue (6/10), competition from other September releases (5/10), changing audience preferences (4/10), and marketing and promotion (6/10) are relatively weaker factors.

Initial probability: 72

Evaluation of confidence:

My initial probability of 72 seems relatively high, considering the factors that might lead to a lower box office performance. However, the strong brand recognition, nostalgia, and cultural relevance of the franchise, combined with positive word-of-mouth and reviews, make a strong case for a successful opening weekend.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Nate Silver, a renowned statistician and author, win the 2023 World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event, which is one of the most prestigious poker tournaments globally? The market will resolve to "Yes" if Nate Silver wins the tournament, and it will immediately resolve to "No" if he is eliminated. This question is based on a consensus of credible reporting, and the resolution criteria are not applicable or available.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

- Nate Silver's poker skills might not be strong enough to compete with professional poker players (Strength: 4). While he is a skilled statistician, poker is a different skillset that requires experience, strategy, and a strong understanding of human psychology.
- Nate Silver might not have the necessary experience in high-stakes poker tournaments (Strength: 3). While he has likely played poker before, he may not have the same level of experience as professional poker players who have spent years honing their skills.
- The competition in the WSOP Main Event is extremely tough, with many skilled players vying for the top prize (Strength: 5). The WSOP Main Event attracts some of the best poker players in the world, making it a challenging field for anyone to win.
- Nate Silver might not be able to handle the pressure of a high-stakes tournament (Strength: 2). While he is known for his confidence in his statistical analysis, he may not be prepared for the mental and emotional demands of a high-stakes poker tournament.
- There may be other factors that could affect Nate Silver's performance, such as his physical and mental well-being (Strength: 1). While he is likely in good health, there is always a risk of injury or illness that could impact his performance.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

- Nate Silver's analytical skills could give him an edge in the tournament (Strength: 4). As a statistician, he has a deep understanding of probability and decision-making, which could help him make better decisions at the table.
- Nate Silver has likely prepared extensively for the tournament (Strength: 3). As a well-known poker enthusiast, he may have spent a significant amount of time studying and practicing to improve his skills.
- He may have a strong support system and resources to help him prepare for the tournament (Strength: 2). As a well-known figure, he may have access to top-notch coaching, training, and advice from experienced poker players.
- Nate Silver's confidence in his abilities could give him an edge (Strength: 1). He is known for his confidence in his statistical analysis, which could translate to confidence at the poker table.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the most significant factors working against Nate Silver's chances of winning the WSOP Main Event are the strength of the competition and his lack of experience in high-stakes poker tournaments. However, his analytical skills and potential preparation could give him an edge. Overall, the chances of Nate Silver winning the tournament seem low, but not impossible.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the initial probability of Nate Silver winning the WSOP Main Event to be around 5%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively low, which is reasonable given the strength of the competition and Nate Silver's lack of experience in high-stakes poker tournaments. However, it may be worth considering the base rate of the event, which is the probability of any player winning the WSOP Main Event. This base rate is likely low, but it's difficult to estimate without more information.

7. Final prediction:
*0.05*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.05
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will 'Barbie' (2023) gross more than $90,000,000 domestically on its second weekend, which spans from July 28 to July 30, 2023? The domestic daily box office data from XXXX will be used to determine the final values for each day of the second weekend. If the data is not available by August 7, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source will be chosen to resolve this market. The market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Barbie' (2023) exceeds $90,000,000 in its second weekend domestic box office earnings and to "No" otherwise.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The movie's opening weekend may not have been strong enough to sustain a high level of interest and viewership for its second weekend. (Strength: 3)
- The competition in the box office during the second weekend might be intense, potentially drawing away viewers from 'Barbie'. (Strength: 4)
- The movie may not appeal to a broad audience, limiting its box office potential. (Strength: 2)
- The summer season is coming to an end, which could reduce the number of people going to the movies. (Strength: 4)
- The movie's marketing campaign may not have been effective in generating buzz and excitement among potential viewers. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The movie has a strong brand recognition and a large following, which could lead to a high level of interest and viewership. (Strength: 5)
- The movie's star-studded cast, including Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling, could attract a large audience. (Strength: 4)
- The movie's marketing campaign has been extensive and well-promoted, generating significant buzz and excitement among potential viewers. (Strength: 5)
- The movie's theme and style may appeal to a broad audience, including families and children, which could lead to a high box office gross. (Strength: 4)
- The movie's opening weekend was strong, indicating a potential for sustained interest and viewership. (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" outcome, I believe that the factors in favor of a "yes" outcome are stronger. The movie's strong brand recognition, star-studded cast, and effective marketing campaign all point to a high level of interest and viewership. Additionally, the movie's theme and style may appeal to a broad audience, which could lead to a high box office gross.

However, the reasons for a "no" outcome, such as the competition in the box office and the end of the summer season, do pose some challenges for the movie's box office performance. Nevertheless, I believe that the positive factors outweigh the negative ones, leading to a higher likelihood of the movie grossing over $90,000,000 in its second weekend.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of 'Barbie' grossing over $90,000,000 in its second weekend to be around 70%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
Upon reviewing my initial probability, I realize that it may be overly confident. The reasons for a "no" outcome, such as the competition and the end of the summer season, could still have a significant impact on the movie's box office performance. Additionally, the base rate of movies grossing over $90,000,000 in their second weekend is relatively low, which should temper my initial probability.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the potential risks and challenges, I would revise my initial probability to a more conservative estimate. I believe that the probability of 'Barbie' grossing over $90,000,000 in its second weekend is around *0.55*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will 'The Exorcist: Believer' (2023) gross more than $28,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend, defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of its release, based on the final values available on the "Domestic Weekend" tab of Box Office Mojo? If there is no final data available by October 16, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'The Exorcist: Believer' (2023) meets the grossing requirement, and to "No" otherwise.

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. The Exorcist: Believer is a horror movie, a genre that often faces competition from other popular horror movies and franchises, which can affect its box office performance. (Strength: 4)
2. The Exorcist: Believer is a sequel to a classic horror movie, and sequels can be hit-or-miss in terms of box office success. (Strength: 3)
3. The movie's marketing campaign and trailers may not have generated sufficient buzz or excitement among audiences. (Strength: 2)
4. The release date of the movie may coincide with other major releases or events that could draw attention and box office revenue away from The Exorcist: Believer. (Strength: 1)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. The Exorcist is a well-known and iconic horror franchise, which can attract a dedicated fan base and generate interest in the movie. (Strength: 5)
2. The movie's marketing campaign and trailers may have effectively generated buzz and excitement among horror fans and audiences. (Strength: 4)
3. The movie's release date may not coincide with other major releases or events that could draw attention and box office revenue away from The Exorcist: Believer. (Strength: 3)
4. Horror movies often perform well at the box office, especially during the fall season. (Strength: 2)

Aggregate considerations:

Considering the reasons above, I believe that the movie's iconic franchise, effective marketing campaign, and the horror genre's potential for success are strong factors in its favor. However, the competition from other horror movies and franchises, as well as the uncertainty of the movie's marketing campaign's effectiveness, are potential drawbacks.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of initial probability:

My initial probability of 60 seems relatively cautious, given the strong factors in favor of the movie's success. However, I have considered the potential drawbacks and uncertainties, which may affect the movie's box office performance. I may be underestimating the movie's potential, but I am also aware that the box office is inherently unpredictable.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Adam22 and Lena The Plug publicly confirm their break-up by July 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, as indicated by direct statements or unambiguous indicators on their official social media accounts, or through credible reporting? This question will resolve to "Yes" if either Adam22 or Lena The Plug announces their separation, and to "No" if there is no public confirmation of a break-up by the specified date.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- They have been together for a long time and have not publicly announced any issues. (Strength: 3)
- Both Adam22 and Lena The Plug have a strong online presence and may be cautious about sharing personal details about their relationship. (Strength: 4)
- They may be working on their relationship and prefer to keep it private. (Strength: 2)
- There is no publicly available information suggesting a break-up. (Strength: 5)
- They have a strong online fanbase and may be hesitant to share negative news. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- Social media influencers often face intense scrutiny and pressure, which can put a strain on their relationships. (Strength: 3)
- Public figures often prioritize their public image over their personal relationships. (Strength: 2)
- They may have grown apart or have differing priorities. (Strength: 2)
- There could be personal issues or conflicts that have not been publicly disclosed. (Strength: 4)
- The nature of their relationship may be subject to scrutiny and criticism from their fans or the public. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations: 
Taking into account the reasons for both "yes" and "no," I consider the following:
- The lack of publicly available information about a potential break-up (Strength: 5) is a strong indicator that the answer might be "no."
- The potential strain on their relationship due to public scrutiny (Strength: 3) and their prioritization of their public image (Strength: 2) could contribute to a break-up.
- The absence of any credible reporting or public statements about a break-up suggests that the answer might be "no."

5. Initial probability: 20
Based on the aggregated considerations, I assign a 20% probability to the answer being "yes" and an 80% probability to the answer being "no."

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
My initial probability is relatively low, considering the potential strain on their relationship due to public scrutiny. However, the lack of publicly available information about a potential break-up and their cautious nature regarding personal details suggests that the answer might be "no." I consider the base rate of celebrity break-ups to be relatively high, but I do not have a specific number to rely on. Given this uncertainty, I may need to adjust my probability.

7. Final prediction: *0.25*
Considering the potential for a break-up due to public scrutiny, I slightly increase the probability to 25%. However, the lack of publicly available information and their cautious nature regarding personal details still lead me to believe that the answer is more likely to be "no."
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Kevin McCarthy be officially elected as the Speaker of the House of Representatives after his ousting on October 3, 2023, and remain in the position by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, without being replaced or removed by a new Speaker? The resolution will be based on official US government information and a consensus of credible reporting. Temporary or unelected Speakers, such as the Speaker Pro Tempore, will not be considered for a "Yes" resolution. If a new Speaker of the House is not elected by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No."

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No" (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Kevin McCarthy's leadership style and policies may not be acceptable to a significant portion of the Republican Party, potentially leading to a loss of support and his inability to secure the necessary votes. (Strength: 4)
- McCarthy may face opposition from moderate or progressive Democrats who could potentially join forces with some Republicans to block his speakership. (Strength: 3)
- The ongoing investigations and controversies surrounding McCarthy, including his handling of the January 6th committee and potential ethics issues, may erode his support among his own party members. (Strength: 4)
- The Republican Party's internal divisions and the presence of alternative candidates may lead to a prolonged Speakership battle, making it difficult for McCarthy to secure the necessary votes. (Strength: 5)
- The increasing polarization and partisanship in the US Congress may lead to a more contentious Speakership election process, potentially resulting in McCarthy's defeat. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes" (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Kevin McCarthy has been a prominent figure in the Republican Party and has a strong support base, which could help him secure the necessary votes for the Speakership. (Strength: 4)
- McCarthy has been working to build relationships with moderate Democrats and Republicans, potentially increasing his chances of securing a majority vote. (Strength: 3)
- The Republican Party's need for a unified leadership and a clear direction may lead to a consensus around McCarthy's speakership. (Strength: 4)
- McCarthy's experience as a House leader and his ability to navigate complex party politics may give him an advantage in the Speakership election. (Strength: 4)
- The lack of a clear alternative candidate or a strong opposition to McCarthy may make it easier for him to secure the Speakership. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "Yes" and "No" outcome, I weigh the strengths of each argument. The strong opposition from within the Republican Party and potential external opposition from Democrats may pose significant challenges for McCarthy's speakership. However, his experience, support base, and efforts to build relationships with moderate politicians could still give him an advantage.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of Kevin McCarthy being elected as the Speaker of the House and remaining in the position by June 30, 2024, to be around 40%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40% may be considered somewhat cautious, given the potential challenges McCarthy faces. However, it is also based on the assumption that the Republican Party will be able to come to a consensus around a single candidate, which may not necessarily be the case. The base rate of a Speaker being ousted or replaced is relatively low, but it's not negligible.

7. Final prediction:
*0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Kanye West announce his candidacy for the 2024 United States presidential election between June 27, 2023, and July 11, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, as per his official statements, social media, or his legal representation, or will credible reporting confirm such an announcement within this timeframe?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Kanye West has not publicly shown any concrete steps towards a presidential campaign, which might indicate a lack of seriousness or preparation (Strength: 3).
- Kanye West has a history of making provocative statements, but it's uncertain if he will follow through on this particular statement (Strength: 2).
- Kanye West has been open about his mental health struggles and has been hospitalized in the past; this might impact his ability to run a successful campaign (Strength: 4).
- Kanye West has a significant following and influence, but his presidential bid might be seen as a publicity stunt or a distraction, which could lead to a lack of serious consideration from the public and the media (Strength: 3).
- Kanye West has not yet formed a political party or established a clear platform, which is a crucial step for a presidential candidate (Strength: 5).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Kanye West has a strong social media presence and has used it to express his opinions and engage with his audience, which could be a platform for announcing a presidential bid (Strength: 4).
- Kanye West has been open about his dissatisfaction with the current state of politics and has expressed a desire to challenge the status quo, which might be a driving force behind a presidential run (Strength: 4).
- Kanye West has a strong following and has been able to mobilize his fans around various causes, which could translate to a successful presidential campaign (Strength: 4).
- Kanye West has a history of pushing boundaries and challenging conventional norms, which might lead him to pursue a presidential bid (Strength: 4).
- Kanye West has already expressed interest in running for president in the past, which might indicate a genuine desire to do so in the future (Strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I weigh the strengths of each argument. The reasons against a presidential bid (Strength: 1-5) add up to 17, while the reasons for a presidential bid add up to 19. This slight imbalance suggests that Kanye West might be more likely to announce a presidential bid. However, the strength of the reasons against a bid, particularly the lack of concrete steps and the uncertainty surrounding his mental health, should not be underestimated.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of Kanye West announcing his candidacy between June 27 and July 11, 2023, to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% might be considered relatively high, given the lack of concrete evidence and the uncertainty surrounding Kanye West's intentions. However, considering his history of making provocative statements and his strong social media presence, it's not entirely implausible that he might announce a presidential bid. The base rate of presidential candidates announcing their candidacy is relatively low, so the event is not extremely common.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Progresívne Slovensko (Progressive Slovakia) win more than 18% of the votes in the 2023 Slovak parliamentary elections scheduled for September 30, 2023? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party achieves a vote share above 18%, and to "No" if it falls below this threshold. In case the election results are not known by March 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the Slovakian government and/or information published through the official website of Slovakia's Ministry of the Interior (XXXX) used in case of ambiguity.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-10, with 1 being a weak reason and 10 being a strong reason):

* The party's popularity might be low due to a lack of a strong leader or unclear policy positions (6/10). 
* The party might struggle to gain traction in a crowded political landscape, with several other parties competing for votes (7/10).
* Progresívne Slovensko might not have a strong presence in certain regions, which could affect their overall vote share (5/10).
* The party's platform might not appeal to a broad enough range of voters, limiting their potential support (6/10).
* The party's name might not be well-known to the general public, which could make it harder for them to gain votes (4/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-10, with 1 being a weak reason and 10 being a strong reason):

* Progresívne Slovensko has been gaining popularity in recent years, with a strong online presence and a clear, progressive platform (8/10).
* The party has a strong, charismatic leader who could help attract voters (9/10).
* The party's platform aligns with the values of a growing segment of the Slovak population, particularly younger voters (8/10).
* The party has been actively campaigning and has a strong grassroots presence, which could help them mobilize supporters (7/10).
* The party's policies might appeal to voters who are dissatisfied with the current government or political establishment (6/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I think the most significant factors in favor of Progresívne Slovensko winning more than 18% of the votes are their strong leader, clear platform, and growing popularity. However, the party's relatively low name recognition and potential struggles in certain regions could also impact their vote share. Overall, I think the party has a good chance of achieving the 18% threshold, but it's not a certainty.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
My initial probability of 55% seems relatively moderate, considering the factors in favor and against Progresívne Slovensko. However, I might be underestimating the party's potential, given their strong leader and clear platform. On the other hand, the party's relatively low name recognition and potential regional challenges might be more significant than I initially thought.

7. Final prediction: *0.57*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.57
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will there be a confirmed volcanic eruption in Iceland between November 15 and November 30, 2023, according to a consensus of media reporting, considering the recent declaration of a state of emergency due to intense earthquakes linked to a possible future eruption?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The state of emergency declared on November 11 might not necessarily lead to an eruption. This is a weak reason (2) because the state of emergency could be a precautionary measure rather than an indicator of an imminent eruption.
- Iceland has a complex geology, and earthquakes do not always lead to eruptions. This is a weak reason (2) because while it's true, it's also possible for earthquakes to be indicative of an impending eruption.
- The Icelandic Met Office (IMO) or other authorities might have measures in place to mitigate or prevent an eruption. This is a weak reason (2) because it's unclear if such measures would be effective in preventing an eruption.
- The recent earthquakes might be part of a normal seismic activity pattern in Iceland, not necessarily related to an impending eruption. This is a moderate reason (4) because Iceland is a geologically active region with frequent earthquakes, but the recent increase in earthquakes is unusual.
- The volcanic system might not be primed for an eruption, despite the earthquakes. This is a moderate reason (4) because it's difficult to predict volcanic activity, and there might be factors at play that are not immediately apparent.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The recent increase in earthquakes is a strong indication of magma movement, which could lead to an eruption. This is a strong reason (5) because earthquakes are often a precursor to volcanic activity.
- The state of emergency declaration suggests that authorities are taking the situation seriously, which might imply a higher likelihood of an eruption. This is a moderate reason (4) because it's unclear what specific factors led to the declaration.
- Iceland's volcanic history shows that eruptions can occur with relatively short notice. This is a moderate reason (4) because while it's true, each volcanic event is unique, and the circumstances might be different this time.
- The earthquakes are occurring in a region with a history of volcanic activity, which increases the likelihood of an eruption. This is a moderate reason (4) because it's a factor that contributes to the overall risk, but it's not a guarantee.
- The IMO or other authorities might not have accurate or up-to-date information about the volcanic system, which could lead to an eruption. This is a weak reason (3) because it's unclear how accurate or up-to-date the information is.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the most significant factor is the recent increase in earthquakes, which is a strong indication of magma movement and a potential eruption. However, the other factors, both for and against, are moderate or weak, indicating a level of uncertainty. Given the complex geology of Iceland and the difficulty in predicting volcanic activity, it's essential to consider the base rate of eruptions in the region.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of a volcanic eruption in Iceland between November 15 and November 30, 2023, to be around 60.

6. Evaluation and refinement:
Considering the initial probability, it might be excessively confident. The base rate of eruptions in Iceland is relatively low, and the factors contributing to the likelihood of an eruption are complex and uncertain. A more conservative approach would be to consider a lower probability. Additionally, it's essential to note that the resolution of this question will be based on a consensus of media reporting, which might not always be accurate or up-to-date.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Zury Mayté Ríos Sosa win the 2023 Guatemalan presidential election, scheduled to take place on June 25, 2023? This market will resolve to "Yes" if she wins the election, either in the first round or in a potential second round, based on official information from the Guatemalan government (e.g., XXXX) or a consensus of credible reporting. If the result is not known by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* Zury Ríos Sosa is a relatively unknown figure in Guatemalan politics, which might make it difficult for her to gain widespread support (strength: 3).
* The Guatemalan electoral landscape is known for being unpredictable and influenced by various factors such as corruption, crime, and economic conditions (strength: 4).
* Zury Ríos Sosa might face strong competition from other candidates, potentially splitting the vote and hindering her chances (strength: 4).
* The Guatemalan electoral system might not favor her, potentially leading to a second round where she faces an even tougher opponent (strength: 3).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* Zury Ríos Sosa has a strong family background, being the daughter of Efraín Ríos Montt, a former president of Guatemala (strength: 4).
* She has experience in politics, having served as a congresswoman and a senator (strength: 4).
* Zury Ríos Sosa has a strong message and platform that might appeal to Guatemalan voters, particularly women and those seeking change (strength: 4).
* The Guatemalan electorate might be looking for a fresh face and a new perspective, which Zury Ríos Sosa could provide (strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Taking into account the reasons provided above, it seems that Zury Ríos Sosa has some advantages, but also faces significant challenges. Her family background and experience in politics are strong points, but the unpredictable nature of the Guatemalan electoral landscape and the potential for a second round make it difficult to predict her chances.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of Zury Ríos Sosa winning the 2023 Guatemalan presidential election to be around 40%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40% seems reasonable, but it might be on the lower end considering Zury Ríos Sosa's strong family background and experience in politics. However, the unpredictable nature of the Guatemalan electoral landscape and the potential for a second round make it difficult to be more confident.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the 2023 film 'Haunted Mansion' gross more than $30 million domestically on its 3-day opening weekend (Friday, July 28 - Sunday, July 30), based on the final values from the 'Domestic Weekend' tab on Box Office Mojo? If the domestic weekend gross is over $30 million, the market will resolve to "Yes." If not, it will resolve to "No." The market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number, which may include the domestic box office revenue from the United States and/or Canada, depending on the definition used by the website. If there is no final data available by August 7th, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible source will be used to resolve the market.

Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):

1. **Weak:** The film is a family-friendly horror-comedy, which might not appeal to the broadest audience, potentially limiting its box office draw. (Strength: 2/10)
2. **Weak:** The film's release date coincides with a relatively crowded summer season, with several other movies also opening in the same week, which could lead to a diluted audience. (Strength: 3/10)
3. **Weak:** The movie's marketing campaign may not have generated sufficient buzz or excitement among potential viewers, potentially affecting its opening weekend box office performance. (Strength: 2/10)
4. **Moderate:** The film's Rotten Tomatoes score or audience score might be lower than expected, which could negatively impact its box office performance. (Strength: 5/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):

1. **Strong:** Disney, the studio behind the film, has a proven track record of successfully launching family-friendly movies, which could lead to a strong opening weekend. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Moderate:** The film's star-studded cast, including Rosario Dawson and LaKeith Stanfield, could attract a significant audience, particularly families and fans of the original Haunted Mansion franchise. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Moderate:** The film's unique blend of horror and comedy elements might appeal to a broad audience, including both horror and family-friendly viewers. (Strength: 6/10)
4. **Weak:** The film's trailer or marketing campaign might have generated sufficient interest and excitement among potential viewers, leading to a strong opening weekend. (Strength: 3/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses mentioned above, the factors pointing towards a strong opening weekend (Disney's track record, star-studded cast, and unique blend of genres) seem to outweigh the potential drawbacks (crowded release schedule, marketing campaign, and Rotten Tomatoes score). However, the strength of the arguments is relatively evenly balanced, making it challenging to make a definitive prediction.

Initial probability: 55

Evaluation of confidence:
Upon reevaluation, I consider my initial probability to be slightly too confident. The factors pointing towards a strong opening weekend are indeed present, but the potential drawbacks, such as the crowded release schedule and marketing campaign, could still impact the film's box office performance. Additionally, the base rate of films grossing over $30 million on their opening weekend is relatively low, which should temper my initial confidence.

Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will 'Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom' gross over $40 million on its 4-day opening weekend, from December 22 to December 25, based on the final box office numbers from Box Office Mojo, considering the domestic weekend data for the USA and potentially Canada, or other regions included in the "Domestic Weekend" tab? The market will resolve to "Yes" if the film's 4-day opening weekend gross exceeds $40 million, and to "No" if it does not.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Weak (20%):** The film's marketing campaign might not have generated sufficient hype, leading to lower-than-expected box office performance.
- **Weak (20%):** The competition from other movies released around the same time could draw audiences away from 'Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom', affecting its box office earnings.
- **Weak (15%):** The film's storyline or characters might not resonate with a significant portion of the target audience, leading to lower box office numbers.
- **Weak (15%):** The 4-day opening weekend might be affected by the holiday season, with some potential viewers choosing to watch other content or take a break from going to the movies.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Medium (40%):** The success of the previous 'Aquaman' film (2018) and the popularity of the DC Extended Universe might attract a large audience to 'Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom', leading to a strong box office performance.
- **Medium (30%):** The film's release during the holiday season might capitalize on the increased demand for family-friendly content and festive entertainment.
- **Weak (15%):** Positive word-of-mouth and reviews could contribute to a strong opening weekend, especially if the film receives widespread critical acclaim.
- **Weak (15%):** The film's marketing campaign might have effectively targeted and engaged the desired audience, generating significant interest and excitement for the movie.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the points mentioned above, the most significant factors influencing the outcome are the film's connection to the successful 'Aquaman' franchise and the popularity of the DC Extended Universe, as well as the potential for positive word-of-mouth and reviews. However, the competition from other movies and the holiday season's impact on box office attendance are also significant factors to consider.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of 'Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom' grossing over $40 million on its 4-day opening weekend to be 60%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, considering the factors that could influence the box office performance. However, it may be on the more confident side, given the uncertainty surrounding the film's marketing campaign, competition, and audience reception. It's essential to consider the base rate of box office success, which is typically lower than 60%.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the US Department of Justice (DOJ) file any charges against Binance and/or Binance.US by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? The primary resolution source will be official information from the DOJ, but a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The question will be resolved based on the actual filing of charges by the specified deadline, not on any announcements, investigations, or other actions that may precede or follow the deadline.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1 to 5, where 1 is a weak reason and 5 is a strong reason):
- The DOJ might be taking a more cautious approach to investigating Binance and Binance.US, and any charges might be filed after the specified deadline. (Strength: 3)
- The DOJ might be focusing on other high-priority cases and investigations, delaying the filing of charges against Binance and Binance.US. (Strength: 4)
- Binance and Binance.US might be cooperating with the DOJ and making concessions or agreements that would avoid the need for charges to be filed. (Strength: 2)
- The DOJ might not have gathered sufficient evidence to file charges against Binance and Binance.US by the specified deadline. (Strength: 4)
- The DOJ might be waiting for the outcome of other regulatory actions or investigations before filing charges against Binance and Binance.US. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1 to 5, where 1 is a weak reason and 5 is a strong reason):
- The DOJ has been actively investigating Binance and Binance.US for several months, and it's likely that charges will be filed soon. (Strength: 5)
- The SEC and other regulatory agencies have already taken action against Binance and Binance.US, indicating a high level of scrutiny. (Strength: 4)
- The public and media attention on Binance and Binance.US has increased significantly, which could pressure the DOJ to take action. (Strength: 3)
- The DOJ has a history of filing charges against high-profile targets, and Binance and Binance.US fit this profile. (Strength: 4)
- The deadline of September 30, 2023, creates a sense of urgency, and the DOJ might be motivated to file charges before the deadline to meet this timeline. (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons why the answer might be no are somewhat plausible, but they are outweighed by the reasons why the answer might be yes. The DOJ's active investigation, regulatory actions, public scrutiny, and history of filing charges against high-profile targets all suggest that charges against Binance and Binance.US are likely.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of the DOJ filing charges against Binance and/or Binance.US by September 30, 2023, to be around 80.

6. Evaluation of confidence:
My initial probability of 80 might be excessively confident, considering the complexity of the situation and the various factors that could influence the DOJ's decision. However, I believe that the reasons why the answer might be yes are more compelling than the reasons why it might be no. The base rate of the event is not particularly relevant, as this is a unique situation with specific circumstances.

7. Final prediction:
*0.7*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will Coinbase.com list $PEPE (Etherscan token address: 0x6982508145454Ce325dDbE47a25d4ec3d2311933) as a tradable asset on their platform, allowing users to open spot trading pairs with $PEPE by July 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET?

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **Lack of Information about $PEPE**: There is limited information available about $PEPE, which might make it difficult for Coinbase to evaluate its legitimacy, security, and potential for trading volume. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Regulatory Hurdles**: Coinbase is a US-based exchange, and listing a new asset may require compliance with various regulatory requirements, which might slow down or even prevent the listing of $PEPE. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Competition from Established Assets**: Coinbase already lists a large number of assets, and adding a new one might require significant resources and effort, which could be a challenge, especially if there are more established and popular assets competing for attention. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Low Trading Volume or Interest**: If there is little to no interest in $PEPE or low trading volume, Coinbase might not see the value in listing it, as it could lead to minimal trading activity and revenue. (Strength: 8/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **Growing Demand for New Assets**: The cryptocurrency market is constantly evolving, and users are always looking for new assets to trade. If $PEPE has a strong community and demand, Coinbase might see an opportunity to capitalize on this interest. (Strength: 9/10)
2. **Coinbase's History of Listing New Assets**: Coinbase has a history of listing new assets, including those with lower market capitalization, which suggests that they are open to exploring new opportunities. (Strength: 8/10)
3. **Potential for High Trading Volume**: If $PEPE has a strong following or is part of a larger ecosystem, it could attract significant trading volume, making it an attractive asset for Coinbase to list. (Strength: 9/10)
4. **Community Engagement and Promotion**: If the $PEPE community is active and promoting the asset, it could increase visibility and interest, making it more likely for Coinbase to consider listing it. (Strength: 7/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Considering the reasons above, I weigh the likelihood of Coinbase listing $PEPE by July 31, 2023. While there are valid concerns about regulatory hurdles, lack of information, and competition, the potential for high trading volume, community engagement, and Coinbase's history of listing new assets suggest that the answer might be yes.

**Initial Probability:**

Based on my analysis, I estimate the probability of Coinbase listing $PEPE by July 31, 2023, to be around 60%.

**Evaluating Confidence:**

My initial probability of 60% might be considered not confident enough, given the potential for high trading volume and community engagement. However, I have not considered the base rate of Coinbase listing new assets, which might be a relevant factor.

**Final Prediction:**

After reevaluating my considerations, I adjust my probability to 65%. I believe this is a more accurate reflection of the potential for Coinbase to list $PEPE by July 31, 2023.

*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2023 Tour de France general classification? What are the chances that Tadej Pogačar will be declared the winner of the 110th edition of the Tour de France by July 31, 2023 (11 PM ET)? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tadej Pogačar wins the 2023 Tour de France general classification and to "No" otherwise. Any revisions to the results after the champion receives the trophy will have no bearing on this market.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 6/10** Tadej Pogačar has had to deal with injuries in the past, and there's a risk of him getting injured during the 2023 Tour de France, which could affect his performance.
- **Strength: 4/10** The competition in the 2023 Tour de France might be stronger than in previous years, with other top cyclists potentially challenging Pogačar's dominance.
- **Strength: 3/10** Pogačar might experience a mental or physical block during the competition, which could impact his performance.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 8/10** Tadej Pogačar is the current defending champion and has shown impressive form in previous years, indicating a strong potential to repeat his success.
- **Strength: 6/10** Pogačar has a well-established team and support system, which could provide him with the necessary resources to perform well in the competition.
- **Strength: 5/10** Pogačar has been training and preparing for the 2023 Tour de France, and his team has likely developed strategies to address potential weaknesses.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that Pogačar's past performance and current situation give him an advantage. However, there are some potential risks and challenges that could affect his performance. To calculate a probability, I will weigh the strength of each reason and consider the overall context.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of Tadej Pogačar winning the 2023 Tour de France to be around 70%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 70% might be slightly overconfident, as it doesn't fully account for the uncertainty surrounding Pogačar's performance and the potential risks mentioned earlier. However, it's also not overly conservative, as it acknowledges Pogačar's strengths and advantages.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the 2023 Argentina presidential election require a second round of voting, as determined by official information from Argentina's government or a consensus of credible reporting? The market will resolve to "Yes" if the election outcome necessitates a second round, and to "No" if the election is won by a candidate with an absolute majority in the first round. This question is relevant for the period from the market's opening to October 23, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- A candidate might win the election with a strong margin, securing more than 50% of the votes in the first round (Strength: 4). 
- Argentina's electoral system might favor a single-round election, where the candidate with the most votes wins the presidency (Strength: 3).
- The current political landscape in Argentina might not indicate a close election, with one candidate having a clear lead (Strength: 4).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Argentina's electoral system does not have a runoff provision for presidential elections, which means a candidate needs to win more than 50% of the valid votes to be elected (Strength: 5).
- The country's history of elections has seen multiple rounds in the past, which could suggest that the current election might also require a second round (Strength: 3).
- The election might be highly competitive, with multiple strong candidates running, leading to a close result and necessitating a second round (Strength: 4).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the given information and my analysis, the reasons for a second round (yes) seem stronger than the reasons against it (no). The fact that Argentina's electoral system does not have a runoff provision for presidential elections, combined with the country's history of competitive elections, suggests that a second round is more likely.

5. Initial probability: 70

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
My initial probability of 70 seems reasonable, given the reasons for a second round. However, it might be considered slightly too confident, as the reasons against a second round (e.g., a strong candidate winning the first round) are not entirely negligible. The base rate of second rounds in presidential elections is also not well-established, which could affect the forecast.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg publicly confirm that they have agreed to engage in a physical fight by July 15, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, as stated by both individuals through direct statements? This confirmation does not require the fight to take place before July 15, but rather a public announcement of their agreement to fight. The primary resolution source for this market will be direct statements from both Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

- **Reason 1: Lack of interest in a physical fight**: Both Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg are high-profile individuals with busy schedules and multiple commitments. They might not have the time or interest in engaging in a physical fight. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 2: Safety concerns**: A physical fight between two high-profile individuals could lead to severe consequences, including physical harm and potential lawsuits. This might deter them from publicly announcing a fight. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 3: Public image**: Both individuals have a strong public image, and engaging in a physical fight could damage their reputations. They might avoid announcing a fight to maintain a positive public image. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 4: Lack of a clear platform or motivation**: Without a clear platform or motivation for the fight, it's unclear why they would publicly announce such an event. (Strength: 8/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

- **Reason 1: Publicity and entertainment value**: A fight between Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg could generate massive publicity and entertainment value, which might be appealing to both parties. (Strength: 9/10)
- **Reason 2: Personal rivalry or animosity**: The two individuals have publicly disagreed on various topics in the past, which could lead to a personal rivalry or animosity, making a fight more likely. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 3: Charitable or fundraising purposes**: They might announce a fight for a charitable cause or to raise funds for a specific organization, which could be a motivating factor. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the most significant factor is the potential publicity and entertainment value of a fight between Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg (Strength: 9/10). While there are valid reasons why the answer might be no, the possibility of a high-profile fight generating significant attention and revenue might outweigh these concerns.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the balanced consideration of both reasons for a "yes" and "no" outcome. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of such events and the potential for unexpected factors that might influence their decision.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the base rate of such events and the potential for unexpected factors, the final prediction is slightly adjusted downward to account for the uncertainty. The final prediction is *0.55*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Mark Cuban announce that he is running for president of the United States of America in 2024 by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, as per his official statements, his legal representation, or a consensus of credible reporting?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

- He has not publicly expressed interest in running for president in the past, which might indicate a lack of ambition or preparation for a presidential campaign (Strength: 4)
- Mark Cuban has been focused on his business ventures and investments, which might leave him little time or energy for a presidential campaign (Strength: 3)
- He has not been actively involved in politics, which might make it difficult for him to build a strong campaign (Strength: 3)
- He has expressed support for certain politicians and policies, but not necessarily for a presidential run himself (Strength: 2)
- He might not want to leave his current business empire and philanthropic efforts to pursue a presidential campaign (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

- Mark Cuban has been increasingly vocal about his opinions on politics and social issues, which might indicate a growing interest in public service (Strength: 4)
- He has a strong platform and network to leverage for a campaign, given his business and media presence (Strength: 4)
- He has been a vocal critic of certain politicians and policies, which might indicate a desire to take a more active role in shaping public policy (Strength: 3)
- He has expressed admiration for certain politicians, such as Barack Obama, which might suggest he is open to public service (Strength: 2)
- He has a strong track record of entrepreneurship and leadership, which might make him a compelling candidate (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that Mark Cuban has the potential to announce a presidential run, but there are also several reasons that suggest he might not. The strength of the "yes" reasons seems to outweigh the "no" reasons, but the "no" reasons are not negligible. Therefore, a cautious approach is necessary.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of Mark Cuban announcing a presidential run by the end of the year at around 60%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
Upon further consideration, I realize that the initial probability of 60% might be too high, given the lack of clear indicators that Mark Cuban is seriously considering a presidential run. A more conservative approach might be warranted, taking into account the low base rate of celebrities announcing presidential runs and the difficulty of launching a successful campaign. Therefore, a lower probability might be more appropriate.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will 'A Haunting in Venice' (2023) gross more than $14 million on its 3-day opening weekend in the domestic market (USA and/or Canada) according to the final box office numbers available on Box Office Mojo by September 24, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This market considers the opening weekend as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release, and the domestic market is defined as the USA and/or Canada, depending on the box office data provided by Box Office Mojo.

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Competition from established franchises**: The film 'A Haunting in Venice' is a part of the popular Agatha Christie's Poirot series, but it may face stiff competition from other established franchises and movies that have a strong following. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Limited brand recognition**: Although the Poirot series has a dedicated fan base, it may not be as widely recognized as some other franchises, which could impact the film's box office performance. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Mixed reception of the previous Poirot film**: The previous film in the series, 'Death on the Nile', received mixed reviews and underperformed at the box office, which might affect the audience's expectations and interest in 'A Haunting in Venice'. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **High production costs**: The production budget for 'A Haunting in Venice' is not publicly available, but it's likely to be substantial, which could make it challenging for the film to break even, let alone gross over $14 million on its opening weekend. (Strength: 8/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Strong fan base**: The Agatha Christie's Poirot series has a dedicated fan base, and 'A Haunting in Venice' is likely to appeal to fans of the series and mystery/thriller genres. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Positive reception of the trailer**: The trailer for 'A Haunting in Venice' received positive reviews, indicating that the film may have a strong marketing campaign and generate interest among potential viewers. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Good timing**: The film's release date in late September might allow it to benefit from a relatively quiet period in the box office calendar, potentially leading to a stronger opening weekend. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Strong cast**: The film features a well-known cast, including Kenneth Branagh and Michelle Yeoh, which could attract a broader audience and contribute to a successful opening weekend. (Strength: 7/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" outcome, I would rate the overall confidence in 'A Haunting in Venice' grossing over $14 million on its opening weekend as moderate. The strong fan base, positive reception of the trailer, and good timing are factors that suggest a positive outcome, while the competition from established franchises, limited brand recognition, and high production costs are concerns that might impact the film's performance.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, considering the mixed factors at play. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of films grossing over $14 million on their opening weekend, which is relatively high. This might suggest that the initial probability is slightly too conservative.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem' (2023) gross more than $42,500,000 on its 5-day opening weekend, which spans from August 2nd (Wednesday) to August 6th (Sunday)? This prediction will be based on the actual box office numbers from Box Office Mojo's Domestic Daily for the specified weekend, and not on studio estimates. If the final data is not available by August 14th, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible source will be used for resolution. The question will resolve to "Yes" if the film exceeds the specified gross, and to "No" otherwise.

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. The film might not have received widespread critical acclaim, which could negatively impact its box office performance (Strength: 3). 
2. The market is highly competitive, with other movies and franchises potentially drawing audiences away from 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem' (Strength: 4).
3. The film's marketing campaign might not have been effective in generating sufficient buzz and interest among the target audience (Strength: 2).
4. The film's genre, an animated action-comedy, might not appeal to a broad enough audience to achieve high box office numbers (Strength: 2).

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. The 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles' franchise has a dedicated fan base, which could lead to a strong opening weekend (Strength: 5).
2. The film's animation and action sequences might appeal to a broad audience, including families and fans of the genre (Strength: 4).
3. The film's release during the summer season, when many families and children are on vacation, could contribute to a strong box office performance (Strength: 4).
4. The film's marketing campaign might have been effective in generating interest and excitement among the target audience (Strength: 3).

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both sides, I believe that the 'Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem' franchise's dedicated fan base and the film's potential appeal to a broad audience are significant factors in its favor. However, the competitive market and the possibility of a lackluster marketing campaign or critical reception are concerns that could impact its box office performance.

Initial probability: 62

Evaluation of confidence:
My initial probability of 62 seems reasonable, given the mixed factors at play. However, I may have underestimated the impact of the competitive market and the potential for a weak marketing campaign. Additionally, I have not considered the base rate of films grossing over $42.5 million on their opening weekend, which might be relatively low.

Final prediction: *0.58*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.58
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Coinbase 1-minute candle for BTC-USD on September 30th, 2023, at 23:59 ET have a "Close" price of 23,456.79 or higher, considering the historical price trends, market conditions, and other relevant factors that may influence the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase?

This rephrased question aims to provide a clearer understanding of the market condition and potential factors that may impact the price of Bitcoin on the specified date and time.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with rated strength):
- **Reason 1: Historical price fluctuations**: Bitcoin's price can be highly volatile, and it's possible that the price might drop below 23,456.78 due to various market factors, such as a global economic downturn or a significant shift in investor sentiment. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 2: Market trends**: The cryptocurrency market is known for its unpredictable nature, and a downtrend in the market could cause the price to drop below the specified threshold. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 3: Regulatory changes or events**: Unexpected regulatory changes or events could negatively impact the price of Bitcoin, leading to a decline below 23,456.78. (Strength: 4/10)
- **Reason 4: Global economic conditions**: Economic instability or a recession could lead to a decrease in investor confidence, causing the price of Bitcoin to drop. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with rated strength):
- **Reason 1: Long-term growth trend**: Historically, Bitcoin has shown a long-term growth trend, and it's possible that the price will continue to rise above 23,456.78. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 2: Increased adoption**: Growing adoption of cryptocurrencies and increasing institutional investment could lead to a price increase above the specified threshold. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 3: Limited supply**: The limited supply of Bitcoin could lead to a price increase as demand continues to grow. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 4: Positive market sentiment**: A positive market sentiment, driven by factors such as a strong economy or technological advancements, could cause the price to rise above 23,456.78. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, it appears that the market conditions and historical trends are relatively balanced. However, the limited supply of Bitcoin and long-term growth trend suggest a slight bias towards a positive outcome.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate an initial probability of 55% for the answer to be yes.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 55% seems reasonable, considering the balanced nature of the "yes" and "no" reasons. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is not explicitly provided. Assuming a relatively low base rate (i.e., the probability of the event occurring without any additional information), the initial probability of 55% might be excessively confident.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will 'Barbie' (2023) gross more than $150,000,000 domestically on its 3-day opening weekend (July 21 - July 23, 2023)? If the actual box office data is not available by July 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, we will use another credible source to determine the resolution of this market. The resolution will be "Yes" if 'Barbie' (2023) meets or exceeds the $150,000,000 domestic box office gross on its opening weekend; otherwise, it will be "No."

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The film's marketing campaign might not have generated enough buzz among the target audience (Strength: 3). While the film has a star-studded cast, including Margot Robbie, it's uncertain if the campaign effectively captured the attention of the younger demographic.
- The film's Rotten Tomatoes score might be lower than expected, affecting its overall appeal (Strength: 2). A lower critical reception could deter some viewers from watching the film, impacting its box office performance.
- The film's release date coincides with other summer blockbusters, potentially splitting the audience (Strength: 4). With multiple movies released in the same period, 'Barbie' might struggle to stand out and attract a large audience.
- The film's theme and content might not resonate with the current cultural and societal climate (Strength: 3). The film's focus on a more traditional, idealized portrayal of femininity might not align with the current cultural values and preferences of the target audience.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The film has a highly anticipated and well-known cast, including Margot Robbie, Ryan Gosling, and Will Ferrell (Strength: 5). The involvement of these stars can generate significant excitement and attract a large audience.
- The film's marketing campaign has been extensive and well-executed, with a strong social media presence (Strength: 4). The campaign has effectively targeted the younger demographic and created a buzz around the film.
- The film's release date coincides with the summer vacation season, a peak time for moviegoers (Strength: 5). Families and teenagers are likely to be on summer break, making it an ideal time for a blockbuster film like 'Barbie' to perform well.
- The film's theme and content might appeal to a wide range of audiences, including families and nostalgic viewers (Strength: 4). The film's colorful and vibrant visuals, combined with its lighthearted tone, could make it an enjoyable experience for a broad audience.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, I believe that the film's strong marketing campaign, well-known cast, and release date are significant advantages. However, the potential competition from other summer blockbusters and the film's theme might be drawbacks. I will weigh these factors to form a probability estimate.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I estimate the probability of 'Barbie' (2023) grossing more than $150,000,000 domestically on its opening weekend to be around 80%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability seems relatively high, but I believe it's justified given the film's strong marketing campaign and well-known cast. However, I might be underestimating the potential impact of competition from other summer blockbusters. I will consider this when refining my estimate.

7. Final prediction:
*0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Claudine Gay remain as the President of Harvard University until 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2023, according to official statements from Harvard University or a consensus of credible reporting? If Claudine Gay leaves the office before the expiry date, the market will resolve to "No" immediately. 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, 5 being the strongest):

- Claudine Gay might step down due to health issues (Strength: 2)
- Claudine Gay might face a scandal or controversy that leads to her resignation (Strength: 3)
- Harvard University might decide to change its leadership due to internal or external factors (Strength: 4)
- Claudine Gay might be involved in a conflict with the university's board of directors, leading to her departure (Strength: 2)
- Claudine Gay might be involved in a scandal or controversy related to her personal life (Strength: 1)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, 5 being the strongest):

- Claudine Gay has not shown any signs of leaving the position, and her term has not been publicly discussed (Strength: 4)
- Harvard University typically has a formal process for removing presidents, and there is no indication that this process is underway (Strength: 4)
- Claudine Gay has been in the position since 2023, and her tenure has not been marked by controversy (Strength: 3)
- Claudine Gay has a strong reputation as an academic and administrator, which suggests she may be able to maintain her position (Strength: 3)
- There is no credible reporting or rumors suggesting Claudine Gay's departure (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the provided information and my analysis, I consider the reasons for a "yes" answer to be stronger. Claudine Gay's reputation, the lack of controversy surrounding her tenure, and the absence of credible reporting or rumors about her departure all suggest that she is likely to remain in the position. However, I also consider the potential for unexpected events or scandals that could lead to her departure.

5. Initial probability: 80

6. Evaluation:
My initial probability of 80 seems reasonably confident, given the available information. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of presidents leaving their positions, which is relatively high. Additionally, I may have overestimated the strength of some of the "yes" reasons. To balance this, I should consider the possibility of an unexpected event that could lead to Claudine Gay's departure.

7. Final prediction: *0.7*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the US Department of Justice (DOJ) file any charges against Binance and/or Binance.US by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This question will be resolved based on official information from the DOJ, with a possible secondary consideration of a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution criteria are not applicable for this question.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1 to 10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- The DOJ might not find sufficient evidence to file charges against Binance and/or Binance.US (Strength: 6). 
- The DOJ might be prioritizing other cases or investigations (Strength: 4).
- Binance and/or Binance.US might be cooperating with the DOJ, leading to a settlement or other resolution that does not involve charges (Strength: 7).
- The DOJ might be taking a cautious approach to avoid a high-profile case against a major cryptocurrency exchange (Strength: 5).
- The DOJ might be waiting for more information or evidence before making a decision (Strength: 8).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1 to 10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- The DOJ has already launched an investigation into Binance and/or Binance.US, indicating a high likelihood of charges (Strength: 9).
- Binance and/or Binance.US have been accused of various regulatory breaches and non-compliance issues (Strength: 8).
- The DOJ has been increasing its focus on cryptocurrency regulation and enforcement (Strength: 7).
- There have been reports of other regulatory bodies taking action against Binance and/or Binance.US, which could lead to DOJ involvement (Strength: 6).
- The DOJ might be looking to make a statement with a high-profile case against a major cryptocurrency exchange (Strength: 5).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that there is a moderate to high likelihood of the DOJ filing charges against Binance and/or Binance.US by the end of the year. The strength of the reasons for a "yes" outcome appears to outweigh those for a "no" outcome. However, the DOJ's cautious approach and the potential for a settlement or cooperation between the parties should not be underestimated.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the DOJ filing charges against Binance and/or Binance.US by the end of the year to be around 70%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 70% seems reasonable, given the strength of the reasons for a "yes" outcome. However, it may be considered not confident enough, as the reasons for a "no" outcome are not entirely negligible. It is also worth noting that the base rate of the DOJ filing charges against major companies is not publicly available, which could affect the forecast.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will 'Barbie' gross at least two times the domestic box office revenue of 'Oppenheimer' on their opening weekend (defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of each film's release, July 21-23)? This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Barbie' achieves this target. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." We will rely on the 'Domestic Weekend' data from XXXX for the resolution, and if final data is not available by July 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible source will be chosen for resolution.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- 'Barbie' is a highly anticipated film, but it's also a live-action adaptation, which might not appeal to the same audience as the animated versions. (Strength: 2)
- 'Oppenheimer' is a biographical drama directed by Christopher Nolan, which often performs well at the box office due to its prestige and Nolan's fan base. (Strength: 4)
- 'Oppenheimer' has received widespread critical acclaim and might attract a larger audience due to its historical significance and Nolan's reputation. (Strength: 4)
- The opening weekend of 'Barbie' might be affected by the strong competition from other summer releases. (Strength: 3)
- 'Barbie' is a family-friendly film, which might limit its appeal to a broader audience compared to 'Oppenheimer'. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- 'Barbie' has a massive marketing campaign and a strong brand recognition, which could attract a large audience. (Strength: 5)
- The film's star-studded cast, including Margot Robbie, Ryan Gosling, and Will Ferrell, might draw in viewers. (Strength: 4)
- 'Barbie' is a highly anticipated film, especially among the female audience, which could lead to a strong opening weekend. (Strength: 4)
- The film's themes of female empowerment and self-discovery might resonate with a wide range of audiences. (Strength: 3)
- 'Barbie' has the potential to be a cultural phenomenon, which could lead to a strong opening weekend. (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:

After weighing the reasons for both possibilities, I consider the strengths of the arguments. The reasons for 'Barbie' performing well are strong, especially the massive marketing campaign, star-studded cast, and potential cultural phenomenon. However, the reasons for 'Barbie' performing poorly are also significant, particularly the competition from other summer releases and the potential limitations of a live-action adaptation.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of 'Barbie' grossing at least two times the domestic box office revenue of 'Oppenheimer' on their opening weekend to be around 60.

6. Evaluation and refinement:

Upon further consideration, I realize that the initial probability might be too high. The base rate of films grossing significantly more than another film on their opening weekend is relatively low. Additionally, the competition from other summer releases and the potential limitations of a live-action adaptation might affect 'Barbie's performance more than initially considered.

7. Final prediction:

*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Hamas remain the predominant political and military authority in the Gaza Strip by October 31, 2023, based on credible reporting and without any significant disruptions to its control? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas maintains its primary governing authority in the Gaza Strip by the given date. In cases of shared governance or disruptions, the group or authority with the majority of control will be considered the primary governing authority.

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No" (rated from 1 to 10, with 1 being a weak reason and 10 being a strong reason):

- **Reason 1:** Israel's military operations in Gaza could lead to a significant weakening of Hamas's control (Strength: 8/10). Israel has a history of military actions in Gaza, which could potentially disrupt Hamas's governance.
- **Reason 2:** The Palestinian Authority's efforts to establish a unified government in the West Bank and Gaza could lead to a shift in power dynamics (Strength: 6/10). If the Palestinian Authority gains more control, Hamas's influence might decrease.
- **Reason 3:** International pressure and sanctions could weaken Hamas's ability to govern effectively (Strength: 5/10). The international community might impose sanctions or pressure on Hamas to relinquish control or compromise its governance.
- **Reason 4:** Internal power struggles within Hamas could lead to a loss of control (Strength: 4/10). Infighting within Hamas could weaken its governance capabilities.

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes" (rated from 1 to 10, with 1 being a weak reason and 10 being a strong reason):

- **Reason 1:** Hamas's entrenched presence in Gaza and its ability to maintain control through its military and social services (Strength: 9/10). Hamas has a strong network of supporters and a well-organized military presence in Gaza.
- **Reason 2:** The lack of a viable alternative to Hamas in the Gaza Strip (Strength: 8/10). The Palestinian Authority's influence in Gaza is limited, and other factions might not have the capacity to challenge Hamas's control.
- **Reason 3:** Hamas's ability to adapt to changing circumstances and maintain its grip on power (Strength: 7/10). Hamas has shown resilience in the face of Israeli military operations and international pressure.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Hamas's entrenched presence in Gaza, its military capabilities, and its ability to maintain control through social services are strong factors in its favor. However, Israel's military operations, the Palestinian Authority's efforts, and international pressure could potentially weaken Hamas's control. Internal power struggles and the lack of a viable alternative to Hamas are also considerations.

5. Initial probability:
Given the factors mentioned, I would estimate the probability of Hamas remaining the primary governing authority in the Gaza Strip by October 31, 2023, to be around 65.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability might be considered relatively confident, given the strong factors in favor of Hamas maintaining control. However, the potential for external disruptions, internal power struggles, and the influence of the Palestinian Authority and international community could affect the outcome. A base rate of 50-60% for Hamas maintaining control in the past might also be a consideration.

7. Final prediction:
*0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Donald J. Trump be found to have violated the conditions of his release (broadly defined to include any conditions of release, bail, or bond) by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, as per a ruling by a judge and/or based on a consensus of credible reporting from official statements from the presiding court?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- The conditions of Trump's release are clearly defined and understood, and Trump is likely to comply with them, reducing the likelihood of a violation (Strength: 6/10)
- Trump's legal team is experienced and will take steps to ensure compliance with the conditions (Strength: 5/10)
- The court has not shown a history of taking drastic action against Trump, suggesting that they may be lenient (Strength: 4/10)
- Trump has a track record of navigating complex legal situations, which could aid him in avoiding a bail violation (Strength: 6/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- Trump has a history of controversy and potential legal issues, which could lead to unintentional or intentional non-compliance with the conditions (Strength: 7/10)
- The complexity of the case and the high stakes involved may lead to mistakes or oversights by Trump or his team (Strength: 6/10)
- The court may be more vigilant in monitoring Trump's behavior due to the high-profile nature of the case (Strength: 5/10)
- Trump's personal behavior and statements may lead to unintentional violations of the conditions (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the likelihood of Trump violating his bail conditions is moderate, with both sides having some compelling arguments. However, the factors pointing towards a violation (Trump's history of controversy and potential for mistakes) seem slightly stronger than those suggesting compliance (Trump's experienced legal team and ability to navigate complex situations).

5. Initial probability:
60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, but it might be slightly on the lower side given the potential for Trump's history of controversy and the high stakes involved. It's also worth noting that the base rate of bail violations is generally low, which could suggest that the actual probability is even lower. However, this is a high-profile case with unique circumstances, so the base rate may not be directly applicable.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Donald J. Trump tweet from his verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) at least once between September 25, 2023, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump tweets any original content (including quotes and replies) from his verified account during this specified time period. Retweets will not count towards a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account: XXXX.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- Trump's Twitter activity has decreased since his presidency, which might indicate a lower likelihood of frequent tweeting. (Strength: 6/10)
- Trump has not been as active on social media in recent years, which might suggest a lower probability of him tweeting during this period. (Strength: 5/10)
- Trump has been known to take extended periods of time without tweeting, which could imply a higher chance of no tweets between September 25 and December 31. (Strength: 7/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- Trump has consistently used his Twitter account for various purposes, including political commentary and personal statements. (Strength: 8/10)
- Trump has a history of tweeting about current events, which makes it likely he will continue to do so during the specified time period. (Strength: 9/10)
- Trump's Twitter account has remained active and engaged, with occasional tweets, which suggests a higher likelihood of continued activity. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that the likelihood of Trump tweeting between September 25 and December 31 is higher due to his past behavior and the potential for him to comment on current events. However, the decreased frequency of his tweets and the possibility of extended periods without activity might lower the probability.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Trump tweeting between September 25 and December 31 to be around 70%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 70% seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident given the uncertainty surrounding Trump's Twitter activity. The base rate of Trump tweeting is not well-defined, and the factors influencing his activity are complex. A more cautious approach might be to consider a lower probability, taking into account the potential for unanticipated events or changes in Trump's behavior.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the initial probability and the need for a more cautious approach, I would adjust the final prediction to *0.55*. This accounts for the uncertainty surrounding Trump's Twitter activity and the potential for unanticipated events.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Venezuela initiate a military invasion or military action intended to establish control over any portion of Guyana by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official statements from Venezuela, Guyana, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, or credible reporting?

This question will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela launches a military operation, including but not limited to, a full-scale invasion, a limited incursion, or any other form of military action aimed at gaining control over any part of Guyana's territory. The resolution will not consider minor skirmishes or isolated incidents that do not represent a broader military strategy.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Reason 1: Venezuela's economic crisis and internal instability (Strength: 4) - Venezuela is currently facing severe economic difficulties, which might limit its ability to finance and execute a large-scale military operation.
- Reason 2: International opposition and diplomatic efforts (Strength: 3) - The international community, including the United Nations, might condemn any Venezuelan military action, potentially isolating Venezuela and limiting its options.
- Reason 3: Guyana's military capabilities (Strength: 2) - Guyana has a relatively small military, but it might still be able to resist a Venezuelan invasion, especially if supported by other countries.
- Reason 4: Historical relations between Venezuela and Guyana (Strength: 2) - The two countries have had tensions in the past, but there is no clear indication of an imminent conflict.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Reason 1: Venezuela's territorial claims (Strength: 5) - Venezuela has long claimed a portion of Guyana's territory, the Essequibo region, which could be a valid reason for military action.
- Reason 2: Maduro's authoritarian regime (Strength: 4) - President Maduro's regime has a history of aggressive behavior and disregard for international norms, making a military invasion more plausible.
- Reason 3: Regional power dynamics (Strength: 3) - Venezuela's actions might be influenced by its relationships with other regional powers, such as Cuba or Russia, which could provide support for a military operation.

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, the most significant factors are Venezuela's economic crisis and international opposition, which might limit its ability to execute a military operation. However, the country's historical territorial claims and Maduro's authoritarian regime make a military action more plausible. The historical relations between Venezuela and Guyana, as well as Guyana's military capabilities, are less significant factors.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the considerations above, I would estimate the initial probability of Venezuela invading Guyana by December 31, 2023, to be around 30.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:

The initial probability seems relatively low, considering the historical tensions between the two countries and Venezuela's territorial claims. However, the economic crisis and international opposition might limit Venezuela's options. The base rate of the event is low, as military invasions are relatively rare. Considering these factors, the initial probability might be too low.

7. Final prediction:

*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Houthis forcefully board and take control of another ship registered by any country besides Yemen between November 27 and December 8, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This event will be resolved based on official information from involved governments and/or from the Houthis, with a consensus of credible sources used as a secondary verification method. The question will resolve to "Yes" if this event occurs, and to "No" if no such event occurs within the specified timeframe.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is a weak reason and 5 is a strong reason):

- Reason 1: The Houthis might be deterred by international pressure and the potential consequences of attacking a foreign-registered ship. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 2: The Houthis might be focused on domestic conflicts and internal power struggles, diverting their attention away from international maritime targets. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 3: The Houthis' capabilities and resources might be limited, making it difficult for them to launch a successful attack on a foreign-registered ship. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 4: The international community, including naval powers, might increase their presence in the region, making it more difficult for the Houthis to launch a successful attack. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is a weak reason and 5 is a strong reason):

- Reason 1: The Houthis have a history of attacking foreign-registered ships in the past, indicating a pattern of behavior that could continue. (Strength: 5)
- Reason 2: The Houthis might view attacking foreign-registered ships as a means to disrupt global trade and pressure governments to address their grievances. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 3: The Houthis might have the capabilities and resources to launch a successful attack on a foreign-registered ship, particularly if they have been planning and preparing for such an operation. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 4: The Houthis might be motivated to attack a foreign-registered ship to gain leverage in ongoing negotiations or to create a distraction from domestic issues. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" outcome, I weigh the strength of each reason. The Houthis' history of attacking foreign-registered ships and their potential motivations to do so again are strong reasons for a "yes" outcome. However, the potential deterrents, such as international pressure and the Houthis' limited capabilities, are also significant factors. I also consider the possibility of the Houthis being focused on domestic conflicts, which could divert their attention away from international targets.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of the Houthis seizing another ship by December 8 as 55%.

6. Evaluation of confidence:
My initial probability seems to be relatively moderate, taking into account both the reasons for a "yes" and "no" outcome. However, I consider the base rate of the event, which is the Houthis' history of attacking foreign-registered ships. This base rate suggests that such events are not uncommon, which might increase the likelihood of another attack. I also consider the potential for the Houthis to adapt and evolve their tactics, making it more difficult to predict their behavior.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will OpenAI announce a new permanent CEO by December 31, 2023 ET, as per official statements released by the company or a consensus of credible reporting, marking a change in leadership from the current interim or acting CEO, if applicable?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):

- **Reason 1: Current CEO stability**: Sam Altman has been acting as the interim CEO of OpenAI since January 2023, and there is no clear indication of a change in leadership. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 2: Focus on AI development**: OpenAI might be prioritizing the development of its AI technology over leadership changes, which could delay the announcement of a new permanent CEO. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 3: No clear candidate**: There is no publicly known candidate for the position of permanent CEO, which could indicate that OpenAI is still searching for the right person or waiting for the right time to make the announcement. (Strength: 7/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):

- **Reason 1: Need for stability**: A permanent CEO can bring stability and direction to the company, which might be essential for OpenAI's growth and development. (Strength: 9/10)
- **Reason 2: Previous announcements**: OpenAI has made significant announcements in the past, and a new CEO could be part of a larger strategy to revamp the company's image or direction. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 3: Industry trends**: The tech industry is known for frequent leadership changes, and OpenAI might be following this trend to stay competitive and adapt to changing market conditions. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, it seems that there are both valid arguments for and against the possibility of OpenAI announcing a new permanent CEO by December 31, 2023. However, the reasons in favor of a new CEO seem slightly more compelling, especially the need for stability and direction in the company.

5. Initial probability:

Given the considerations above, I would estimate the initial probability of OpenAI announcing a new permanent CEO by December 31, 2023, to be around 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

Upon reviewing my initial probability, I think it might be a bit too high. The reasons against a new CEO are still significant, and there is no concrete evidence to suggest that OpenAI is planning to announce a new permanent CEO by the end of the year. A more conservative approach would be to consider the base rate of leadership changes in the tech industry, which is relatively high. This might suggest that OpenAI is more likely to announce a new CEO in the future but not necessarily by the end of 2023.

7. Final prediction:

*0.40*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will 'Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny' (2023) gross more than $70.5 million on its 3-day opening weekend, considering the domestic box office performance, the popularity of the Indiana Jones franchise, the current market trends, and the overall competition in the film industry at that time? This question will be resolved based on the actual box office figures from the 'Domestic Weekend' tab on Box Office Mojo for the film's opening weekend (June 30 - July 02), which will be used to determine whether the film grossed more than $70.5 million. If the actual figures are not available by July 10, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
1. Competition from other summer releases: There might be other highly anticipated movies released around the same time, which could draw audiences away from 'Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny' and affect its box office performance (Strength: 4).
2. Declining interest in the Indiana Jones franchise: The Indiana Jones franchise has been successful in the past, but the series has not had a new installment in several years, which might have led to a decline in fan interest and anticipation (Strength: 3).
3. Mixed reviews and potential audience fatigue: If the movie receives mixed or negative reviews, it might not perform well at the box office, and if audiences are already saturated with other movies, they might not be interested in another adventure film (Strength: 4).
4. Limited marketing and promotion: If the marketing and promotion for 'Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny' are not effective, it might not generate enough buzz and excitement among potential viewers, leading to lower box office numbers (Strength: 3).
5. Historical context: The opening weekend for Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull was $ 151.1 million, while the opening weekend for Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade was $ 37.9 million. The opening weekend for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny might not match the opening weekend of the previous films (Strength: 2).

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
1. Strong brand recognition: The Indiana Jones franchise is well-known and beloved, which could attract a large audience and generate significant box office revenue (Strength: 5).
2. Positive marketing and promotion: Effective marketing and promotion can create a buzz around the movie and attract a large audience, leading to a successful opening weekend (Strength: 4).
3. High anticipation and excitement: The film's release has been highly anticipated, and many fans are eager to see the next installment in the series, which could lead to a strong opening weekend (Strength: 5).
4. Good word-of-mouth: If the movie receives positive reviews and audiences enjoy it, word-of-mouth could help attract more viewers and lead to a successful box office performance (Strength: 4).
5. Strong cast and crew: The film features a talented cast and crew, which could contribute to its success and attract a large audience (Strength: 4).

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I think that the likelihood of 'Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny' grossing more than $70.5 million on its 3-day opening weekend is moderate. The strong brand recognition, positive marketing, high anticipation, and good word-of-mouth are all factors that could contribute to a successful opening weekend. However, the competition from other summer releases, declining interest in the franchise, mixed reviews, and limited marketing and promotion are potential factors that could affect its performance.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too high considering the factors that could affect the movie's performance. The competition from other summer releases and declining interest in the franchise are significant concerns that could lead to a lower opening weekend. However, the strong brand recognition and positive marketing could still contribute to a successful opening weekend.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Israel initiate a large-scale military operation involving ground forces within Gaza, specifically south of Wadi Gaza, by December 8, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reporting indicates the start of such an operation, which is defined as a significant deployment of Israeli ground forces, and not smaller raids or special operations. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the event occurs before the market's expiry date, the market will resolve immediately. The resolution criteria are not applicable for this question.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Israel might prioritize diplomatic efforts over military action (Strength: 3) - Israel may attempt to resolve the conflict through negotiations or other means before resorting to a large-scale ground offensive.
- The international community might apply pressure to prevent a large-scale operation (Strength: 4) - The United Nations, the United States, or other influential nations might urge Israel to avoid a ground invasion, which could deter them from taking such action.
- Israel's military might be focused on other priorities, such as the Iran nuclear deal or domestic issues (Strength: 2) - Israel's military resources and attention might be allocated elsewhere, making a large-scale operation in Gaza less likely.
- The costs and risks of a ground operation might outweigh the benefits (Strength: 4) - A large-scale ground invasion could result in significant Israeli casualties, damage to infrastructure, and international condemnation, which might outweigh the perceived benefits of such an operation.
- The current military situation in Gaza might not be conducive to a large-scale operation (Strength: 3) - The balance of military power, the presence of Hamas's rocket capabilities, and the potential for civilian casualties might make a large-scale operation too risky for Israel.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The escalating rocket attacks from Gaza might prompt a large-scale response (Strength: 5) - Continuous rocket fire from Gaza could lead to increased Israeli frustration and a desire for a more decisive military response.
- Israel's government might feel pressure from its citizens to take action (Strength: 4) - Public opinion in Israel might demand a more aggressive response to the rocket attacks, leading to a large-scale operation.
- The Israeli military might be preparing for a potential operation (Strength: 3) - Intelligence gathering, troop mobilization, or other preparatory actions could indicate that Israel is planning a large-scale operation.
- The current political climate in Israel might favor a more aggressive approach (Strength: 3) - The Israeli government's composition and policies might make a large-scale operation more likely.
- Hamas's actions might be seen as a provocation, justifying a large-scale response (Strength: 4) - Hamas's rocket attacks, tunnel digging, or other activities might be perceived as a direct challenge to Israel's sovereignty, prompting a more significant military response.

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons provided, the strength of the "yes" reasons seems to outweigh the "no" reasons. The escalating rocket attacks, the potential for public pressure, and the possibility of a more aggressive Israeli government all contribute to a higher likelihood of a large-scale operation. However, the risks and costs associated with such an operation, as well as the potential for diplomatic efforts to prevent it, should not be underestimated.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be around 60.

6. Evaluation and final considerations:

The initial probability seems reasonable, given the current situation. However, it might be too low, considering the strength of the "yes" reasons. The base rate of large-scale military operations in Gaza is relatively high, which might suggest a higher probability. Additionally, the potential for miscalculation or escalation in the region could lead to a higher likelihood of a large-scale operation.

7. Final prediction:

*0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Bob Menendez announce his resignation as the United States Senator from New Jersey before the end of his current term, which is set to expire between September 22 and December 31, 2023, ET? The primary sources for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Bob Menendez or his representative. A consensus of credible reporting will also be considered sufficient for resolving this market.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Menendez has not shown any public intention to resign (Strength: 4). He has been in office for a long time and has not publicly expressed any desire to leave.
- There is no known scandal or major controversy surrounding Menendez that would lead to his resignation (Strength: 3). While Menendez has been involved in some controversies, none of them seem severe enough to force his resignation.
- The Senate is a powerful position, and Menendez might not want to give up his influence (Strength: 2). Senators often hold significant power and influence, which might make them hesitant to leave office.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Menendez has been involved in some controversies, including corruption charges (Strength: 4). While he has not been convicted, the ongoing investigations and allegations might lead to his resignation.
- There is a general trend of politicians announcing their retirements or resignations in the US (Strength: 3). This could be a factor in Menendez's decision-making process.
- Menendez might be planning to run for another office or pursue other opportunities (Strength: 2). If he has other ambitions, he might choose to leave the Senate to pursue them.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that the balance of evidence points towards Menendez not resigning. While there are some potential reasons for him to leave, they are not strong enough to outweigh the reasons for him to stay. His lack of public intention to resign, the absence of a major scandal, and the power of his position all contribute to this assessment.

5. Initial probability: 20

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively low, but it's based on a careful consideration of the available information. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of politicians announcing their resignations. This is a common occurrence, and it's possible that Menendez might follow this trend. Additionally, there might be unknown factors that could influence his decision.

7. Final prediction: *0.30*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.3
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Shedeur Sanders officially be awarded the Heisman Trophy for the 2023 college football season by the Heisman Trust's official announcement or credible sports news outlets on or before December 10th, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, considering his performance throughout the season and potential competition from other players?

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Competition from other top-performing players**: There may be other players who have exceptional performances in the 2023 season, such as Bryce Young, J.J. McCarthy, or others, which could potentially sway the Heisman voters and lead to Shedeur Sanders not receiving the award. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Shedeur Sanders' performance might not meet expectations**: Despite being a top contender, Shedeur Sanders may not meet the expectations of the Heisman voters, either due to a decline in performance or injuries throughout the season. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Voter biases and preferences**: Heisman voters might have personal biases or preferences towards certain players or teams, which could influence their decision and lead to Shedeur Sanders not receiving the award. (Strength: 4/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Shedeur Sanders' impressive performance**: Shedeur Sanders has been performing exceptionally well throughout the season, which could lead to him being the top choice for the Heisman Trophy. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Shedeur Sanders' consistency**: His consistent performance and leadership throughout the season could make him a strong candidate for the award. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Shedeur Sanders' reputation and hype**: As a well-known player with a strong reputation, Shedeur Sanders might receive more attention and support from the media and fans, which could increase his chances of winning the award. (Strength: 6/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, Shedeur Sanders' impressive performance, consistency, and reputation are strong factors in his favor. However, the competition from other top-performing players and potential biases from voters could impact his chances. The competition from other players is a significant concern, but Shedeur Sanders' performance and reputation might be enough to secure the award.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the considerations above. However, it might be slightly on the lower side, as Shedeur Sanders' performance and reputation are strong indicators of his chances. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a player winning the Heisman Trophy), it's relatively low, which might make the initial probability too high.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Mike Johnson be elected as the permanent Speaker of the House of Representatives after Kevin McCarthy's ousting on October 3, 2023, by the time June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, considering that temporary or unelected Speakers, such as the Speaker Pro Tempore, will not count towards a "Yes" resolution?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 8/10**: Mike Johnson might face opposition from other Republican members who could challenge him for the Speaker position or might not support him due to disagreements on party policies or personal reasons. This could lead to a prolonged Speaker election process or even prevent him from being elected.
- **Strength: 6/10**: The Republican Party might not be unified, and internal conflicts could hinder the election of a Speaker. If the party is divided, it might be challenging for Mike Johnson or any other candidate to gain the necessary support for the Speaker position.
- **Strength: 4/10**: There might be alternative candidates who could emerge as more popular choices for Speaker, potentially altering the dynamics of the election and reducing Mike Johnson's chances of being elected.
- **Strength: 3/10**: External factors, such as the ongoing investigations into President Biden or other national issues, might divert attention away from the Speaker election and create uncertainty, potentially affecting Mike Johnson's chances.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 9/10**: Mike Johnson has a strong position within the Republican Party, having served as the House Majority Leader and Whip. His experience and seniority could make him a strong candidate for Speaker, increasing his chances of being elected.
- **Strength: 8/10**: The Republican Party might rally behind Mike Johnson due to his conservative stance and his ability to work with other party members. This could give him the necessary support to secure the Speaker position.
- **Strength: 6/10**: The Speaker election process might not be as contentious as expected, and Mike Johnson's experience and leadership skills could help him navigate any challenges and secure the necessary votes.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the above points, the factors pointing towards a "no" resolution are relatively weaker compared to those pointing towards a "yes" resolution. Mike Johnson's experience, seniority, and conservative stance within the Republican Party make him a strong candidate for Speaker. However, the potential for internal conflicts, opposition, and external factors might still impact his chances.

5. Initial probability: 70

6. Evaluation:
The initial probability of 70 seems reasonable, given the considerations above. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as the factors pointing towards a "yes" resolution are relatively strong. The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of any given person being elected Speaker) is also not explicitly stated, but it's likely low. Considering these factors, the confidence in the initial probability might be too low.

7. Final prediction: *0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increase by more than 0.2% from May 2023 to June 2023, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics? This question is based on the month-to-month inflation rate, which is a key indicator of the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of goods and services. The resolution source for this market will be the official June 2023 Consumer Price Index report, scheduled to be released on July 12, 2023, at 8:30 AM ET. The resolution will take place upon the release of this data.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* The U.S. economy has experienced periods of low inflation in recent years, and a significant increase in the CPI-U might be unlikely (Strength: 3).
* The current economic conditions, such as interest rates and the overall state of the economy, might not be conducive to high inflation (Strength: 4).
* The Bureau of Labor Statistics might revise the previous month's CPI-U downward, which could impact the month-to-month inflation rate (Strength: 2).
* The CPI-U might not capture all the price changes, especially for specific goods and services (Strength: 1).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* The ongoing war in Ukraine and supply chain disruptions could lead to higher prices for certain goods and services (Strength: 5).
* The U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions might lead to inflationary pressures (Strength: 4).
* The housing market, particularly in the United States, has been experiencing price increases, which could contribute to higher CPI-U (Strength: 4).
* Seasonal factors, such as the end of the school year and summer vacation, might lead to increased spending and prices (Strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the factors mentioned above, the overall trend of the economy, and the potential for various factors to impact the CPI-U, it seems that the probability of the CPI-U increasing by more than 0.2% from May to June 2023 is moderate.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon reviewing the initial probability, I consider it to be somewhat conservative, given the potential for various factors to contribute to higher inflation. However, it's essential to remember that predicting inflation is inherently uncertain, and the actual outcome might differ from expectations.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Netherlands win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Netherlands team is declared the Champion of the FIFA Women's World Cup 2023. The resolution of this market will be based on official information from FIFA, including official World Cup scores, fixtures, and updates. If the Netherlands is eliminated or has no path to victory in the tournament, this market will resolve to "No". In the event that no champion is declared by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to a 50-50 outcome.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- The Netherlands has a talented team, but their performance might be hindered by the strong competition in the tournament. (Strength: 6/10)
- The team might face a tough opponent in the knockout stages, potentially leading to an early elimination. (Strength: 7/10)
- Injuries to key players could significantly impact the team's chances of winning. (Strength: 5/10)
- The team's performance in previous tournaments has been inconsistent, which might affect their chances in the 2023 World Cup. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- The Netherlands has a strong team with skilled players, which could give them an advantage in the tournament. (Strength: 8/10)
- The team has been preparing well for the World Cup and has a good chance of making it to the final stages. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Netherlands has a good coach and a solid team strategy, which could help them navigate the competition effectively. (Strength: 6/10)
- The team's home crowd support might give them an edge in the knockout stages. (Strength: 3/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the Netherlands has a strong team with skilled players, a good coach, and a solid team strategy. However, they also face strong competition and might be vulnerable to injuries and tough opponents. The team's past performance has been inconsistent, which adds uncertainty to their chances.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the Netherlands' chances of winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup to be around 40%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40% might be on the lower side, considering the Netherlands' strong team and preparation. However, the uncertainty surrounding their past performance and potential vulnerabilities might justify this estimate. Additionally, the base rate of the Netherlands winning the World Cup is relatively low, which should be taken into account.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will there be officially acknowledged, foreign military intervention by countries other than Niger in the form of offensive ground operations within the sovereign territory of Niger between August 1, 2023, and August 14, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This question will resolve to "Yes" if credible evidence and official statements from foreign governments confirm the presence of foreign military forces conducting combat operations in Niger during the specified timeframe. The intervention must not be limited to surveillance or intelligence gathering and must be acknowledged by the foreign government involved.

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No":

- **Reason 1: International community's reluctance to intervene** (Strength: 8/10): The international community, particularly the African Union and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), have historically been cautious in intervening in internal conflicts in Africa, preferring to support diplomatic efforts and regional organizations. This reluctance might lead to a delay or avoidance of military intervention.
- **Reason 2: Niger's geographical location and regional dynamics** (Strength: 6/10): Niger's location in the Sahel region, a region with complex security dynamics and various terrorist groups, might make it challenging for external powers to intervene without facing significant operational challenges.
- **Reason 3: Limited foreign interests in Niger** (Strength: 4/10): Compared to other countries in the region, Niger might not have significant strategic or economic importance for major world powers, which could lead to a lower likelihood of foreign military intervention.

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes":

- **Reason 1: Regional security concerns** (Strength: 9/10): The Sahel region is plagued by terrorist groups like Boko Haram and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), which pose a threat not only to Niger but also to neighboring countries. Foreign powers might intervene to address these security concerns and protect their interests.
- **Reason 2: France's involvement in the Sahel** (Strength: 8/10): France has a long history of military involvement in the Sahel region, particularly through Operation Barkhane, and has a significant military presence in neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso. It is possible that France or other Western countries might expand their military presence to Niger to counter the growing terrorist threat.
- **Reason 3: China's growing influence in Africa** (Strength: 6/10): China has been expanding its military presence and economic influence in Africa, and Niger is a key partner in the region. China might see Niger as an opportunity to increase its presence and counterbalance Western influence in the region.

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons provided, the likelihood of foreign military intervention in Niger seems plausible, particularly given the regional security concerns and France's existing involvement in the Sahel. However, the international community's reluctance to intervene and Niger's limited strategic importance might mitigate this likelihood. The regional dynamics and limited foreign interests in Niger also play a role in this assessment.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of foreign military intervention in Niger between August 1, 2023, and August 14, 2023, to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:

The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, considering the plausible reasons for and against intervention. However, it might be considered not confident enough, given the significant regional security concerns and France's existing presence in the Sahel. A more cautious approach might be warranted, considering the complexity of the situation and the potential for unexpected developments.

7. Final prediction:

*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Adam D'Angelo leave or be removed from the OpenAI board by November 30, 2023, as announced by OpenAI or Adam D'Angelo himself, or confirmed by a definitive consensus of credible media sources, by November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? An announcement of his departure before the given date, regardless of when it takes effect, will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- Adam D'Angelo has a significant role in OpenAI, and his departure might not be imminent (Strength: 60). 
- OpenAI might not see a need to remove him from the board, given his current contributions (Strength: 40).
- Adam D'Angelo's position on the board might be secure, and there's no indication of a conflict that would lead to his removal (Strength: 30).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- Adam D'Angelo has been involved in various controversies and criticisms surrounding OpenAI (Strength: 70). 
- There have been reports of changes in leadership and management within OpenAI, which could potentially affect board members (Strength: 50).
- Adam D'Angelo's goals and priorities might differ from those of the company, leading to his removal (Strength: 40).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the most significant factor is Adam D'Angelo's involvement in controversies and criticisms surrounding OpenAI. This could lead to his removal from the board. However, the other factors, such as his secure position and the lack of immediate necessity for his departure, provide some counterbalance.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I estimate the probability of Adam D'Angelo leaving or being removed from the OpenAI board by November 30, 2023, to be around 65.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 65 might be considered slightly too confident, given the relatively low strength of some of the reasons provided. However, the presence of some uncertainty and the potential for unaccounted factors makes it difficult to assign a lower probability. The base rate of executive changes or board member removals in the tech industry is relatively high, which might also support a higher probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Kevin McCarthy, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, formally announce his intention to step down from his position or have his resignation reported by a reputable source, such as a government website or major news outlet, by 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2023, thereby resolving this market to "Yes"? 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Lack of public pressure**: There is no significant public outcry or opposition from within his party that would necessitate his resignation. (Strength: 4/10)
- **Reason 2: McCarthy's past actions**: Kevin McCarthy has shown resilience in the face of adversity and has a history of navigating difficult situations within his party. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 3: No clear successor**: There is no obvious replacement for McCarthy, and any attempt to step down might create a leadership vacuum that he might not want to leave his party to deal with. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 4: McCarthy's desire for power**: As Speaker of the House, McCarthy holds significant power and influence, which might make him reluctant to relinquish it. (Strength: 7/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Personal reasons**: Kevin McCarthy might have personal reasons for stepping down, such as health issues or family concerns. (Strength: 3/10)
- **Reason 2: Party infighting**: McCarthy's leadership has been criticized, and there might be internal party tensions that could lead to his resignation. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 3: External pressures**: McCarthy might face external pressures from other branches of government or external forces that could make his position untenable. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 4: Announcement of resignation as a bargaining chip**: McCarthy might announce his resignation as a bargaining chip to achieve certain concessions or goals within his party or from other branches of government. (Strength: 4/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the factors weighing against his resignation (Reasons 1-4 in "Reasons why the answer might be no") have a slightly higher strength than the factors in favor of his resignation (Reasons 1-4 in "Reasons why the answer might be yes"). However, it's essential to note that the strength of each reason can fluctuate over time, and new information might emerge that could alter the balance.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Kevin McCarthy resigning by November 30, 2023, to be around 22.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability might be considered not confident enough, as it doesn't fully capture the complexities of the situation. Additionally, I might be underestimating the potential for internal party tensions or external pressures that could lead to McCarthy's resignation. Considering the base rate of resignation among politicians, it's also worth noting that Speaker of the House positions often come with significant tenure, and McCarthy has shown resilience in the past.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a Korean team win the 2023 League of Legends World Championship (Worlds 2023) first place, considering that the primary resolution source for this market is official information from Riot Games (e.g., lolesports.com) and official tournament footage, and other credible reporting may be used? This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Korean team wins the championship, otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the winner of the Worlds 2023 is not determined by December 31, 2023 ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The Korean teams participating in the tournament are Gen.G, T1, KT Rolster, and Dplus KIA.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- **Reason 1: Global Competition**: The League of Legends World Championship is an international tournament with teams from various regions competing. Other strong teams from regions like China, North America, and Europe might have an advantage, potentially making it difficult for Korean teams to secure the top spot. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 2: Team Performance Fluctuations**: League of Legends is a highly competitive game where team performance can fluctuate significantly throughout the tournament. A Korean team might have a strong start but struggle in the later stages, allowing other teams to catch up. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 3: Upsets and Unexpected Results**: Upsets can occur in any tournament, and a Korean team might face an unexpected loss to a less favored team, affecting their chances of winning the championship. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 4: External Factors**: External factors like team roster changes, player injuries, or coaching decisions can impact a team's performance, potentially affecting Korean teams' chances of winning. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- **Reason 1: Korean Teams' Consistency**: Korean teams have historically performed well in the League of Legends World Championship, with some teams consistently showing strong results. This consistency could give them an edge in the competition. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 2: Strong Rosters**: Many Korean teams have strong rosters with experienced players who have performed well in previous tournaments. This could be an advantage in a highly competitive event like the World Championship. (Strength: 9/10)
- **Reason 3: Home-Field Advantage**: While not directly applicable in this case (as the tournament might not be held in Korea), Korean teams are familiar with the game and the region, which could give them an edge in terms of strategy and team dynamics. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 4: Experience and Adaptability**: Korean teams have had experience competing at the highest level and adapting to different strategies and opponents. This experience could help them perform well in the World Championship. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for a "yes" and "no" outcome, it seems that the strengths of the reasons for a "yes" outcome outweigh those for a "no" outcome. Korean teams have a history of performing well, have strong rosters, and have experience competing at the highest level.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially predict a probability of 65 for the answer being yes.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively high, considering the factors that could affect the outcome. However, it is not excessively confident, as it takes into account the potential for upsets and external factors. The base rate of Korean teams winning the World Championship is also relatively high, which supports the initial probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2023 World Series? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Arizona Diamondbacks are the 2023 MLB World Series Champion. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The market may immediately resolve to "No" if the Arizona Diamondbacks are eliminated during the playoffs. This question will be resolved on November 3rd, 2023, and is contingent on the outcome of the 2023 MLB season and playoffs.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-10 for strength, with 10 being the strongest):
- The Diamondbacks have a relatively new team composition and may take time to adjust to each other's playing styles, which could affect their performance in the playoffs. (Strength: 6)
- The team has faced intense competition in the National League West, which might have taken a toll on their players and preparedness for the postseason. (Strength: 7)
- The Diamondbacks have a relatively young roster, and their inexperience in high-pressure situations could be a factor in their World Series chances. (Strength: 5)
- The team's pitching rotation and bullpen may not be strong enough to carry them through a long playoff run. (Strength: 8)
- The Diamondbacks may face tough opponents in the playoffs, such as the Los Angeles Dodgers or Atlanta Braves, which could be challenging for them to overcome. (Strength: 9)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-10 for strength, with 10 being the strongest):
- The Diamondbacks have a strong lineup with players like Corbin Carroll and Christian Walker, which could provide a solid foundation for their offense. (Strength: 6)
- The team's manager, Torey Lovullo, has experience in managing in the postseason and could help the team navigate the pressure of the World Series. (Strength: 5)
- The Diamondbacks have a relatively balanced roster, with a mix of veteran and young players, which could help them adapt to different situations during the playoffs. (Strength: 7)
- The team's home-field advantage in the World Series could give them an edge, especially if the series goes to a deciding game. (Strength: 4)
- The Diamondbacks have shown resilience and determination throughout the season, which could help them overcome adversity in the playoffs. (Strength: 6)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the Diamondbacks face significant challenges, particularly with their pitching rotation and inexperience in high-pressure situations. However, they also have some strengths, such as their balanced roster and home-field advantage. Based on these considerations, the initial probability of the Diamondbacks winning the World Series is around 20%.

5. Initial probability:
20

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 20% seems relatively low, considering the Diamondbacks' strengths and the fact that they have made the playoffs in recent years. However, the base rate of teams winning the World Series is relatively low, and the Diamondbacks face tough competition in the playoffs. Additionally, the team's inexperience and pitching concerns are significant factors that could affect their chances.

7. Final prediction:
*0.22*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.22
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the unsealed documents containing the names of Jeffrey Epstein's associates, ordered to be unsealed by Federal Judge Loretta Preska on December 19, contain any mention of Donald J. Trump? If the documents are not unsealed by February 29, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, with a consensus of credible reporting also being considered. The market will close on February 29, 2024.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

- Reason 1: The documents may not be fully unsealed by the deadline, but that does not necessarily mean they will not be unsealed at a later date. However, this reason is weak (2/10) because it's uncertain when or if the documents will be fully unsealed.
- Reason 2: The unsealed documents might not contain any information about Donald Trump, even if they do contain the names of Jeffrey Epstein's associates. This reason is moderate (5/10) because it's plausible that Trump's name might not be in the documents, even if they are related to Epstein's associates.
- Reason 3: The unsealed documents may be heavily redacted or contain information that is not relevant to Donald Trump. This reason is moderate (5/10) because it's possible that the documents might be heavily redacted or contain information that is not directly related to Trump.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

- Reason 1: Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein had a well-documented relationship, and it's possible that Trump's name could be mentioned in the unsealed documents. This reason is strong (8/10) because of the known connection between the two.
- Reason 2: The documents contain information about Epstein's associates, and Trump has been linked to Epstein in the past, so it's plausible that his name could be in the documents. This reason is moderate (6/10) because it's a plausible connection, but not a certainty.
- Reason 3: The unsealed documents might contain information that has not been previously reported or made public, and it's possible that Trump's name could be mentioned in these new revelations. This reason is moderate (6/10) because it's possible that new information could come to light.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons above, the most significant factor is the known connection between Trump and Epstein. This suggests that it's likely that Trump's name could be mentioned in the unsealed documents. However, the reasons for a "no" answer are also plausible, and the uncertainty around the unsealed documents and their contents makes it difficult to assign a high level of confidence.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would assign an initial probability of 60. This reflects the moderate strength of the reasons for a "yes" answer and the plausible reasons for a "no" answer.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable given the information available. However, it's worth considering the base rate of the event, which is the likelihood of a public figure like Trump being mentioned in documents related to Epstein's associates. This base rate is likely low, but it's difficult to estimate without more information. Additionally, the uncertainty around the unsealed documents and their contents makes it challenging to assign a high level of confidence.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Hezbollah officially declare war on Israel by November 30, 2023, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time, as explicitly stated through a clear and unambiguous declaration, without any ambiguity or implicit actions that may be misconstrued as a declaration of war by Israel or Hamas?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Hezbollah has historically been cautious in its military actions and might prefer a more calculated approach to escalating tensions with Israel. (Strength: 3)
- The current regional dynamics might not favor an immediate Hezbollah-Israel conflict, given the presence of other regional actors and the potential for unintended consequences. (Strength: 4)
- Hezbollah's leadership might be prioritizing domestic issues or other regional conflicts over a direct confrontation with Israel. (Strength: 2)
- Hezbollah might be waiting for a specific opportunity or provocation to declare war, which has not yet materialized. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Hezbollah has been increasingly aggressive in its rhetoric against Israel in recent years, which could indicate a higher likelihood of military action. (Strength: 4)
- The Israeli government's policies and actions, such as settlement expansions or military operations in Lebanon, might provoke Hezbollah into a declaration of war. (Strength: 5)
- Hezbollah's military capabilities and alliances with other regional actors, such as Iran, could embolden them to take a more aggressive stance against Israel. (Strength: 3)
- The current regional tensions and conflicts might create an environment conducive to a Hezbollah-Israel conflict. (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Hezbollah's past behavior and regional dynamics suggest a cautious approach, but their increasing rhetoric and potential regional alliances might indicate a higher likelihood of military action. The strength of the reasons for a "yes" answer seems to outweigh the reasons for a "no" answer, but the uncertainty and complexity of the situation make it challenging to predict with certainty.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Hezbollah officially declaring war on Israel by November 30, 2023, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time to be 60.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 60 might be considered relatively confident, given the uncertainty surrounding the situation. However, considering the complexity and unpredictability of international politics, it might be more accurate to assign a lower probability, such as 40-50. Additionally, the base rate of Hezbollah declaring war on Israel is relatively low, which should be taken into account when evaluating the forecast.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the next speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, following Kevin McCarthy's ousting, be elected by October 17, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, according to information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the elected speaker meets the criteria of being a permanent speaker, not an unelected or temporary speaker, such as a Speaker Pro Tempore.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- **Reason 1: Complexity of the process** (Strength: 4): The process of electing a new speaker can be complex and may take time, potentially leading to delays and difficulties in achieving a consensus among House members. (4)
- **Reason 2: Partisan divisions** (Strength: 5): The House is currently divided, and the Republican Party is struggling to maintain unity. This division may hinder the ability to elect a new speaker in a timely manner. (5)
- **Reason 3: External factors** (Strength: 2): External factors, such as national events or other pressing issues, may distract from the speaker election process or create additional challenges. (2)
- **Reason 4: Potential for a stalemate** (Strength: 4): There is a possibility that the House members may not be able to agree on a new speaker, leading to a stalemate and delaying the election. (4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- **Reason 1: Pressure to resolve the situation** (Strength: 5): The current situation with Kevin McCarthy's ousting creates pressure for a swift resolution, which may motivate House members to elect a new speaker quickly. (5)
- **Reason 2: Experience with previous elections** (Strength: 3): The U.S. House of Representatives has experience with electing new speakers, and the process is well-established, which may facilitate a relatively smooth transition. (3)
- **Reason 3: Potential for a compromise** (Strength: 4): House members may be able to find a compromise candidate or reach an agreement on a new speaker, leading to a timely election. (4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the complexity of the process, partisan divisions, and potential for a stalemate are significant challenges that may hinder the election of a new speaker by October 17. However, the pressure to resolve the situation, experience with previous elections, and potential for a compromise may work in favor of a timely election.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of the next speaker being elected by October 17 as 40.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
Upon reflection, I consider my initial probability to be relatively conservative, given the potential for a stalemate or delays. However, I also recognize that the U.S. House of Representatives has a history of finding ways to resolve such situations. I should consider the base rate of the event, which is that a new speaker is typically elected relatively quickly. This may increase the likelihood of a timely election.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Sweden officially join NATO as a full member state by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, as per the official NATO website (XXXX), or any other credible sources? This question will resolve to "Yes" if Sweden's membership status changes to a full member state on or before the specified date and time, and to "No" if it does not.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-5 for strength):
- Reason 1: Sweden's government might be slow in the ratification process (Strength: 4). The ratification process involves parliamentary approval, and it may take time for the necessary procedures to be completed.
- Reason 2: Public opposition to NATO membership might hinder the process (Strength: 3). Some Swedes may be opposed to joining NATO due to concerns about national sovereignty or military involvement.
- Reason 3: Potential domestic or international issues might arise that delay the process (Strength: 2). Unforeseen circumstances, such as changes in government or shifts in international relations, could impact Sweden's decision to join NATO.
- Reason 4: Sweden might not meet NATO's membership requirements (Strength: 2). The country might not meet the necessary criteria for membership, which could lead to delays or rejection.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-5 for strength):
- Reason 1: Sweden's government has expressed a strong desire to join NATO (Strength: 5). The country has been actively pursuing membership, indicating a high level of commitment.
- Reason 2: The ratification process is underway, and progress has been made (Strength: 4). Sweden has taken steps to align its laws and policies with NATO standards, which suggests a high likelihood of successful ratification.
- Reason 3: NATO membership would provide Sweden with security benefits and strategic advantages (Strength: 4). Joining NATO would enhance Sweden's defense capabilities and provide a sense of security in the region.
- Reason 4: The process has been moving relatively quickly, with a clear timeline for completion (Strength: 3). Sweden has set a goal to complete the ratification process by the end of 2023, which suggests a sense of urgency and momentum.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both "yes" and "no," it seems that the balance of evidence leans towards Sweden joining NATO by October 31, 2023. The strong desire for membership, the progress made in the ratification process, and the potential benefits of joining NATO all contribute to a positive outlook. However, the potential for domestic or international issues to arise, as well as the need for ratification, introduce some uncertainty.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% might be considered not confident enough, given the strong desire for membership and the progress made in the ratification process. However, the potential for unforeseen circumstances and the need for ratification introduce some uncertainty, which might warrant a more cautious approach.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Syriza (ΣΥΡΙΖΑ, Coalition of the Radical Left – Progressive Alliance, Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Προοδευτική Συμμαχία) receive more than 20% of the total votes in the 2023 Greek legislative election scheduled for June 25, as per the unrounded percent of the vote, based on official information from the Greek government and/or information published through the official website of the Hellenic Republic's Ministry of the Interior (XXXX) and/or a consensus of credible media reports?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- Reason 1: Syriza's popularity has been declining in recent years, and the party has faced internal divisions and leadership changes, which might impact its chances of achieving a 20% vote share. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: The Greek political landscape is highly fragmented, with multiple parties vying for votes, which might make it difficult for Syriza to surpass the 20% threshold. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: The election is scheduled for June 25, which is relatively close, and Syriza might not have enough time to recover from its recent setbacks and regain momentum. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- Reason 1: Syriza has a strong base of support among left-wing voters in Greece, and the party's ideology might appeal to those who are dissatisfied with the current government. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: The Greek economy has been struggling, and Syriza's anti-austerity stance might resonate with voters who are experiencing economic hardship. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: Syriza has a well-established presence in Greek politics, and the party's leadership has experience in navigating the country's complex political landscape. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the outcome is uncertain, but the factors favoring a "yes" outcome are slightly stronger. Syriza's strong base of support, its anti-austerity stance, and its experience in Greek politics might help the party surpass the 20% threshold. However, the party's declining popularity, internal divisions, and the fragmented Greek political landscape are potential obstacles.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Syriza receiving more than 20% of the votes at 60%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, given the uncertainty surrounding the outcome. However, it might be slightly too confident, as the factors opposing a "yes" outcome are not insignificant. It's also worth considering the base rate of the event, which is the overall probability of a party receiving more than 20% of the votes in a legislative election. This base rate is difficult to estimate, but it's likely to be relatively low, given the high fragmentation of the Greek political landscape.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the US House of Representatives pass one or more articles of impeachment against President Joseph Biden by a simple majority vote on or before September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, regardless of the outcome of a subsequent Senate trial or conviction? If President Biden ceases to be President before being impeached by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, the answer will be "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, with a consensus of credible reporting used as a secondary source.

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No" (with strength ratings):

- The House of Representatives is controlled by Democrats, who generally support President Biden. (Strength: 6/10)
- Impeachment proceedings are typically a lengthy and complex process, requiring significant evidence and bipartisan support. (Strength: 8/10)
- President Biden's popularity among his party and the general public might make it difficult for Republicans to gather enough support for impeachment. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Biden administration has not faced significant scandals or controversies that could lead to impeachment. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes" (with strength ratings):

- The House of Representatives has impeached two presidents in recent history (Clinton and Trump), and the process can be initiated by a simple majority vote. (Strength: 7/10)
- President Biden has faced criticism and investigations related to his handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal, Ukraine, and other issues. (Strength: 6/10)
- Republican lawmakers have expressed concerns about President Biden's policies and actions, which could lead to impeachment proceedings. (Strength: 5/10)
- The House Judiciary Committee has the power to initiate impeachment proceedings, and they have been critical of the Biden administration in the past. (Strength: 4/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the above points, it seems that while there are valid reasons for both a "Yes" and "No" answer, the likelihood of impeachment seems relatively low due to the Democratic-controlled House and the complexity of the impeachment process. However, the criticisms and controversies surrounding President Biden's administration could potentially lead to impeachment proceedings.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the above considerations, I would estimate the probability of the House of Representatives passing one or more articles of impeachment against President Biden by September 30, 2023, as 20.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
My initial probability seems relatively low, but it's essential to consider the base rate of impeachment proceedings. Historically, impeachment is a rare occurrence, and it's difficult to predict with certainty. However, I'm not excessively confident in my initial probability, as there are valid reasons for both a "Yes" and "No" answer.

7. Final prediction:
*0.20*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.2
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Bernardo Arévalo win the 2023 Guatemalan presidential election, including any potential second round, as determined by official information from the Guatemalan government or a consensus of credible reporting, by December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET? The market will resolve to "Yes" if Bernardo Arévalo is declared the winner, and to "No" otherwise.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- **Reason 1: Strong opposition:** Bernardo Arévalo might face strong opposition from other candidates, which could lead to a difficult campaign and a potential loss in the election. (Strength: 4)
- **Reason 2: Electoral system:** Guatemala's electoral system can be complex, and the second round of voting may favor a different candidate. (Strength: 3)
- **Reason 3: Voter turnout:** Low voter turnout or a lack of enthusiasm for any candidate could lead to an unexpected outcome. (Strength: 2)
- **Reason 4: External factors:** External factors such as economic instability, security concerns, or international pressure could impact the election outcome. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- **Reason 1: Popularity:** Bernardo Arévalo might have a strong base of support among the Guatemalan people, which could translate to a winning vote. (Strength: 4)
- **Reason 2: Party affiliation:** As a member of the National Unity of Hope (UNE) party, Arévalo might benefit from the party's existing infrastructure and voter base. (Strength: 3)
- **Reason 3: Policy platform:** Arévalo's policy platform might resonate with a significant portion of the Guatemalan population, leading to a strong showing at the polls. (Strength: 4)
- **Reason 4: Past electoral performance:** Bernardo Arévalo's past electoral performance, including his performance in the 2021 presidential election, might indicate a strong chance of winning. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, the balance of evidence suggests that Bernardo Arévalo has a good chance of winning the 2023 Guatemalan presidential election. However, there are potential challenges and uncertainties that could impact the outcome. The strength of his opposition, the complexities of the electoral system, and external factors all contribute to the uncertainty of the election.

5. Initial probability:

Given the considerations above, I would estimate an initial probability of 60% that Bernardo Arévalo will win the 2023 Guatemalan presidential election.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:

The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, but it may not fully capture the uncertainty associated with the election. The strength of the opposition, the complexities of the electoral system, and external factors all contribute to the uncertainty of the outcome. However, the popularity of Bernardo Arévalo and his party affiliation suggest a strong chance of winning. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a candidate winning a presidential election in Guatemala) is not provided, but it is generally higher than 50% due to the relatively high voter turnout and the competitive nature of Guatemalan elections.

7. Final prediction:

*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Hezbollah officially deploy ground forces in Israel and engage in combat against Israel in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas on or before October 14, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This question will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources confirming the deployment. If no such deployment occurs by the resolution date, the answer will be "No." It's essential to note that the market may resolve before the expiry date if Hezbollah's deployment of ground forces is confirmed prior to October 14, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No" (with strength ratings from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- Hezbollah's military strategy might not prioritize a ground invasion of Israel, instead focusing on other tactics like rocket attacks and guerrilla warfare (Strength: 8)
- Israel's military might be prepared to respond aggressively to any ground invasion, deterring Hezbollah from deploying troops (Strength: 9)
- Hezbollah might be waiting for a more favorable opportunity or a shift in the conflict dynamics before committing to a ground invasion (Strength: 6)
- The risk of significant casualties and potential international backlash might discourage Hezbollah from deploying ground forces (Strength: 7)
- The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas might not be the optimal time for Hezbollah to engage in a ground invasion, given the focus on other regional conflicts (Strength: 5)

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes" (with strength ratings from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- Hezbollah has historically demonstrated its willingness to engage in combat with Israel, and a ground invasion might be part of its strategy (Strength: 9)
- The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas creates an opportunity for Hezbollah to pressure Israel and gain leverage (Strength: 8)
- Hezbollah might be seeking to protect its interests in Lebanon and the region, which could lead to a ground invasion of Israel (Strength: 7)
- The deployment of ground forces could be a way for Hezbollah to demonstrate its military capabilities and deter future Israeli aggression (Strength: 6)
- Hezbollah's allies, such as Iran, might be pressuring the group to engage in a more aggressive stance against Israel (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the "No" side has stronger arguments, with more points that could deter Hezbollah from deploying ground forces. However, the "Yes" side also presents valid points that could lead to a ground invasion. A balanced approach is necessary to account for the complexity of the situation.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be around 20%. This reflects the uncertainty and the relatively weak arguments in favor of a ground invasion.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
Upon further consideration, I realize that the initial probability might be too low. The ongoing conflict and the historical context of Hezbollah's actions suggest that a ground invasion is not entirely implausible. However, the reasons against a ground invasion are still more convincing. A more accurate probability might be between 10% and 30%. The base rate of such events is also relatively low, as ground invasions are rare and complex operations.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will the U.S. federal government raise or suspend the current debt ceiling, as set by Title 31 of the U.S. Code, § 3101, between May 16, 2023, and June 3, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, considering the primary resolution source will be information from the U.S. federal government (e.g., XXXX) and a consensus of credible reporting?

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **Partisan gridlock**: The U.S. Congress is divided between the two major parties, which often leads to disagreements on fiscal policy, including debt ceiling increases. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Republican opposition**: Historically, some Republicans have been skeptical of increasing the debt ceiling, and it's possible they might resist a hike. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Economic concerns**: Some lawmakers might be hesitant to increase the debt ceiling due to concerns about inflation, interest rates, or the national debt's impact on the economy. (Strength: 4/10)
4. **Lack of a clear plan**: Without a clear plan from the Biden administration or Congress on how to address the debt ceiling, it might be challenging to reach a consensus. (Strength: 3/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **Bipartisan support for a deal**: There have been instances where lawmakers from both parties have come together to pass debt ceiling increases, and it's possible a deal could be reached. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Economic necessity**: The U.S. government has a significant debt burden, and failing to increase the debt ceiling could lead to a default, which would have severe economic consequences. (Strength: 9/10)
3. **Prior agreements**: The U.S. government has a history of increasing the debt ceiling, and it's possible that a similar agreement will be reached this time around. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Pressure from markets and ratings agencies**: The financial markets and credit rating agencies might exert pressure on lawmakers to reach a deal to avoid a default and maintain the country's credit rating. (Strength: 8/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Considering the reasons above, the likelihood of the U.S. government raising or suspending the debt ceiling between May 16, 2023, and June 3, 2023, seems higher than the likelihood of not doing so. The economic necessity and pressure from markets and ratings agencies are strong arguments in favor of a deal, while partisan gridlock and Republican opposition are potential obstacles. However, the history of bipartisan support for debt ceiling increases and the economic consequences of a default suggest that a deal is more likely than not.

**Initial Probability:** 70

**Evaluation of Initial Probability:**

The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too low given the strong arguments in favor of a deal. The economic necessity and pressure from markets and ratings agencies are significant factors that should increase the likelihood of a debt ceiling hike. However, the potential for partisan gridlock and Republican opposition could still cause delays or complications.

**Final Prediction:** *0.85*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.85
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) secure the most seats in the House of Representatives following the 2023 Dutch general election, thereby achieving a plurality? The resolution of this market will be based on the final results of the election, which must be known by April 30, 2024. In the event that the election results are not known by this date, the market will resolve to a 50-50 outcome. The primary sources for determining the resolution will be credible reporting, official government information, and information from the official website of the Dutch electoral council (XXXX).

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The VVD has historically faced challenges in maintaining a strong lead in Dutch politics, often being surpassed by other parties. (Strength: 4)
- The current Dutch political landscape is increasingly fragmented, with several smaller parties gaining popularity. This could lead to a more evenly distributed seat allocation, making it harder for the VVD to secure a plurality. (Strength: 4)
- The VVD's popularity has been affected by internal conflicts and controversies in recent years, which might impact their performance in the election. (Strength: 3)
- The Dutch voter base is known for its unpredictability and tendency to vote for a variety of parties, making it difficult to predict a clear winner. (Strength: 2)
- The rise of other parties, such as the Forum for Democracy (FvD) and the Party for Freedom (PVV), could potentially siphon votes away from the VVD, reducing their chances of securing a plurality. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The VVD has a strong track record of electoral success and has historically performed well in Dutch general elections. (Strength: 4)
- The party's leader, Mark Rutte, has maintained a high level of popularity and has been a dominant figure in Dutch politics. (Strength: 4)
- The VVD has a well-established and well-organized party structure, which can help them to mobilize their supporters effectively. (Strength: 3)
- The party has a clear and well-defined platform that appeals to a broad range of voters, which could help them to secure a plurality. (Strength: 3)
- The VVD has a strong presence in the Dutch media and has been able to effectively communicate their message to the public. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Taking into account the reasons provided above, I would rate the likelihood of the VVD securing a plurality in the 2023 Dutch general election as follows:
- The VVD's historical performance and strong party structure are significant advantages, but the challenges posed by the fragmented Dutch political landscape and the rise of other parties are also notable.
- The internal conflicts and controversies affecting the VVD might have a negative impact on their performance.
- The unpredictability of the Dutch voter base and the potential for vote-splitting among smaller parties are also factors to consider.

5. Initial probability:
Based on these considerations, I would estimate the probability of the VVD securing a plurality in the 2023 Dutch general election as 55.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon further reflection, I realize that my initial probability might be overly confident, given the complexity and unpredictability of the Dutch electoral landscape. The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a party securing a plurality in a general election) is not explicitly known, but it is likely to be relatively low. Additionally, the Dutch voter base is known for its unpredictability, which makes it challenging to make accurate predictions. Therefore, I should be more cautious in my assessment.

7. Final prediction:
*0.40*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Koalicja Obywatelska (KO), a Polish political coalition, achieve a vote share of more than 31% in the 2023 Polish parliamentary elections scheduled for October 15, 2023? The resolution of this market will be based on the outcome of the elections, with a consensus of credible reporting serving as the primary resolution source. In the event that the election results are not known by April 30, 2024, at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to a 50-50 outcome. Official information from the Polish government and/or the official website of Poland's National Electoral Commission (PKW) will be used to resolve any ambiguity.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Polish political landscape is complex, and voter sentiment may shift in favor of other parties, potentially reducing KO's vote share. (Strength: 3)
- KO may face challenges in maintaining unity among its coalition members, which could lead to a decline in its overall vote share. (Strength: 2)
- The Polish government's policies and actions may have alienated some voters, potentially hurting KO's chances. (Strength: 4)
- KO may struggle to appeal to voters in rural areas, where other parties have traditionally performed well. (Strength: 2)
- The election campaign period may not be favorable for KO, with external factors like economic conditions or global events potentially affecting voter sentiment. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- KO has a strong track record of performance in previous elections and has maintained a consistent message. (Strength: 4)
- The party's leadership has been effective in rallying support among its base and may be able to maintain its current momentum. (Strength: 4)
- KO has a well-organized campaign and a strong online presence, which could help it reach and engage with voters. (Strength: 3)
- The party's policy platform may resonate with a significant portion of the Polish electorate, potentially leading to a higher vote share. (Strength: 4)
- KO has been able to attract high-profile endorsements and support from influential individuals, which could boost its visibility and credibility. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the factors favoring a "yes" outcome are slightly stronger, with a few high-strength points (4s) in favor of KO's chances. However, there are also some moderate-strength reasons (3s) suggesting potential challenges for the party. To balance these factors, I will assign a moderate level of confidence to the prediction.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I estimate the initial probability of KO achieving a vote share of more than 31% to be 55%.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
Upon reflection, I realize that my initial probability may be too confident. The Polish political landscape is inherently uncertain, and there are many factors that could influence the outcome of the election. Additionally, the base rate of the event (KO achieving a vote share of more than 31%) is not explicitly known, which could affect the interpretation of the probability. To account for this, I will adjust my confidence level downward.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Did the Israeli government or intelligence agencies have substantial and specific knowledge of a Hamas attack planned for October 7, 2023, prior to its occurrence, and deliberately chose not to act on this information to prevent the attack? The resolution of this market depends on credible evidence that unequivocally demonstrates the Israeli government's or intelligence agencies' foreknowledge of the attack and their decision to take no action. This market will resolve to "Yes" if such evidence emerges by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, and "No" otherwise.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The Israeli government and intelligence agencies may not have had access to credible information about the specific attack planned by Hamas on October 7, 2023 (strength: 4). 
- The Israeli government and intelligence agencies may have had general warnings or intelligence about potential Hamas activity, but not specific information about the October 7 attack (strength: 4).
- The Israeli government and intelligence agencies may have taken actions to prevent the attack, but their efforts were unsuccessful (strength: 3).
- The Israeli government and intelligence agencies may have been focused on other priorities or threats, and the October 7 attack was not a top concern (strength: 2).
- There may be a lack of evidence or credible reporting on the matter, making it difficult to determine the Israeli government's or intelligence agencies' level of foreknowledge (strength: 5).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- There have been reports of increased tensions between Israel and Hamas leading up to the October 7 attack, which could suggest that the Israeli government and intelligence agencies had some level of foreknowledge (strength: 3).
- The Israeli government and intelligence agencies have a history of gathering intelligence on Hamas, and it is possible that they had specific information about the October 7 attack (strength: 4).
- The attack on October 7, 2023, was a significant and coordinated event, and it is possible that the Israeli government and intelligence agencies had some level of foreknowledge about it (strength: 4).
- There may be internal conflicts or disagreements within the Israeli government or intelligence agencies that led to a decision not to act on the information (strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against, it seems that the Israeli government and intelligence agencies may have had some level of foreknowledge about the October 7 attack, but the strength of the evidence is uncertain. The fact that there have been reports of increased tensions between Israel and Hamas, and the history of Israeli intelligence gathering on Hamas, suggest that the Israeli government and intelligence agencies may have had some specific information about the attack. However, the lack of concrete evidence and the possibility of internal conflicts or disagreements within the Israeli government or intelligence agencies make it difficult to determine the extent of their foreknowledge.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of the answer being "yes" as 60.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 may be overly confident, given the uncertainty surrounding the Israeli government's and intelligence agencies' level of foreknowledge. The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of the Israeli government and intelligence agencies having foreknowledge of a specific attack) is also unknown. To account for this uncertainty, I would consider a more conservative estimate.

7. Final prediction:
*0.40*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Hamas release 20 or more hostages in a single 24-hour period by November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas releases 20 or more hostages in any 24-hour period between November 15 and November 30, 2023. The resolution criteria will be based on official information from Hamas, Israel, the United States, and/or the relevant nations to which any potential released hostages belong, with a consensus of credible reporting also being considered. A negotiated release of hostages will also trigger a "Yes" resolution. If Hamas releases hostages on the last day within this market's range, the 24-hour period will commence starting with the release of the first hostage.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Hamas' past hostage release patterns: Hamas has historically been inconsistent in releasing hostages, often in small numbers or as part of larger deals (Strength: 3).
- Ongoing conflict dynamics: The Israel-Palestine conflict is complex and multifaceted, with various factors influencing Hamas' actions, making it difficult to predict a large-scale hostage release (Strength: 4).
- Potential for continued escalation: The conflict might escalate, leading Hamas to prioritize other objectives over hostage releases (Strength: 4).
- Logistical challenges: Releasing 20+ hostages in a single day could be logistically challenging, especially considering the need for safe passage and potential negotiations (Strength: 2).
- Limited international pressure: The international community's response to the conflict might not be sufficient to prompt a large-scale hostage release (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Previous negotiations: Hamas has engaged in negotiations with Israel in the past, resulting in hostage releases (Strength: 4).
- International pressure: The international community, including the US, might exert pressure on Hamas to release hostages, especially if it could lead to a resolution or de-escalation (Strength: 3).
- Humanitarian concerns: Releasing hostages could be seen as a humanitarian gesture, potentially improving Hamas' image and reducing international criticism (Strength: 3).
- Potential for a deal: A large-scale hostage release could be part of a broader deal or agreement between Hamas and Israel, which might be in the works (Strength: 4).

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the complexity of the conflict, Hamas' inconsistent past behavior, and the logistical challenges involved, there are valid reasons to doubt a large-scale hostage release. However, previous negotiations, international pressure, humanitarian concerns, and the potential for a deal suggest that a release is possible. The strength of the "no" reasons seems to outweigh the "yes" reasons, but the latter should not be entirely dismissed.

5. Initial probability:

Given the considerations above, I would estimate the initial probability of Hamas releasing 20+ hostages in a single day by November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET to be 20.

6. Evaluation and additional considerations:

The initial probability seems relatively low, considering the potential for a deal or humanitarian gesture. However, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a large-scale hostage release in a conflict like this) is difficult to estimate. It's essential to consider the context of previous conflicts and the potential for unexpected events. The probability might be adjusted upward if there are credible reports of ongoing negotiations or a significant shift in the conflict dynamics.

7. Final prediction:

*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Elizabeth “Liz” Magill remain as the President of the University of Pennsylvania until 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2023, according to official statements from the University of Pennsylvania or a consensus of credible reporting? This question resolves to "Yes" if Magill continues to hold the office until the specified date, and to "No" if she departs from the office before the expiry date. The resolution will be immediate if Magill leaves the position prior to December 31, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No" (with strength ratings):
- **Reason 1:** University presidents often have fixed terms or contract durations. If Magill's contract or term ends before December 31, 2023, she might not remain the president. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 2:** There could be internal conflicts or controversies within the university that lead to Magill's resignation or removal. (Strength: 4/10)
- **Reason 3:** Magill might be appointed to a higher position or receive a different opportunity that requires her to step down from her current role. (Strength: 3/10)
- **Reason 4:** Personal reasons, such as health issues or family concerns, might force Magill to leave the position. (Strength: 2/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes" (with strength ratings):
- **Reason 1:** There is no publicly available information indicating that Magill's term or contract ends before December 31, 2023. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 2:** University presidents often serve multi-year terms, and there is no indication that Magill's term will end early. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 3:** Magill has not publicly announced any plans to leave the position, suggesting she intends to continue serving as president. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the provided information and my knowledge of the world, I believe that the likelihood of Elizabeth “Liz” Magill remaining as the President of the University of Pennsylvania until December 31, 2023, is higher than the likelihood of her not remaining. The reasons suggesting a "Yes" outcome are stronger and more supported by the available information.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the initial probability to be 70.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My calculated probability seems reasonable, given the available information. However, I should consider the base rate of university presidents leaving their positions early, which might be relatively low. This could suggest that the probability should be even higher.

7. Final prediction:
*0.85*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.85
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Donald J. Trump post on Threads, Instagram's new social media app, by July 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, with the post being a new thread, a quote thread, or a reply, and not a repost? This market resolves to "Yes" if Trump creates and posts original content on Threads by the specified deadline. A consensus of credible media reporting will be used to verify the authenticity of the post. The primary resolution source remains Trump's post on Threads.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strongest to weakest):

- **Strong:** Trump has been known for his preference for Twitter, and it's uncertain whether he will adapt to a new platform like Threads. (Strength: 8/10)
- Trump might be focused on his presidential campaign or other activities and not have the time to create content for Threads. (Strength: 6/10)
- Trump might not see the value in using a new platform like Threads or might be dissatisfied with the features or user experience. (Strength: 5/10)
- Trump's team might not have a strategy to utilize Threads, or there might be internal disagreements about its use. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strongest to weakest):

- **Strong:** Trump has a history of being active on social media and often uses it to engage with his supporters and respond to critics. (Strength: 9/10)
- Instagram is owned by Meta, which has a close relationship with Trump through the former's acquisition of Twitter, increasing the likelihood of Trump adapting to Threads. (Strength: 7/10)
- Trump has a large following on various social media platforms, and using Threads could help him maintain his online presence. (Strength: 6/10)
- Trump's team might see the potential benefits of using Threads to reach a new audience or rebrand his image. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering both the reasons for a "yes" and "no" outcome, it seems that Trump's past behavior and the potential benefits of using Threads give him a slight advantage in posting on the platform by the deadline. However, his potential dissatisfaction with the platform or lack of time might hinder his ability to adapt. The strength of the reasons for a "yes" outcome outweighs those for a "no" outcome, but the difference is not significant.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be around 60. This reflects the uncertainty surrounding Trump's adaptability and potential reasons for not using Threads.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

The initial probability of 60 might be considered not confident enough, given the strength of reasons for a "yes" outcome. Considering the base rate of Trump's social media activity, it's likely that he will post on a new platform, especially one owned by Meta. This might suggest a higher initial probability.

7. Final prediction:

*0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the 2023 film 'Transformers: Rise of the Beasts' gross over $45 million on its opening weekend in the domestic market (defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of its release), according to the final box office data from a credible source such as Box Office Mojo? The domestic weekend gross is considered to be the total earnings from the USA and possibly other countries in North America (Canada, etc.), but not limited to just the USA. If there is no final data available by June 19, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. The Transformers franchise has been experiencing a decline in popularity and box office performance in recent years, which might affect the box office performance of 'Transformers: Rise of the Beasts'. (Strength: 4)
2. The film might not have received a strong marketing campaign or buzz, which could impact its opening weekend box office performance. (Strength: 3)
3. The film's genre (action-adventure) might not be as appealing to a broad audience as other genres like superhero movies or rom-coms. (Strength: 2)
4. The film's competition during its opening weekend might be strong, with other movies releasing around the same time, potentially drawing away potential viewers. (Strength: 4)
5. The film's budget and production costs might be high, which could make it challenging for it to gross over $45 million on its opening weekend. (Strength: 3)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. The Transformers franchise has a dedicated fan base and a strong brand recognition, which could lead to a decent opening weekend box office performance. (Strength: 4)
2. The film's action-packed and visually stunning visuals might appeal to a broad audience, including fans of the franchise and new viewers. (Strength: 4)
3. The film's marketing campaign might have generated enough buzz and excitement among fans and casual viewers, leading to a strong opening weekend. (Strength: 3)
4. The film's release date might coincide with a relatively slow period in the summer blockbuster season, allowing it to attract more viewers. (Strength: 3)
5. The film's opening weekend performance might be boosted by the fact that it's a reboot of the franchise, which could attract both old and new fans. (Strength: 4)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the mixed performance of the Transformers franchise in recent years, the strong competition during the opening weekend, and the potential high production costs, the likelihood of the film grossing over $45 million on its opening weekend seems uncertain. However, the franchise's dedicated fan base, strong brand recognition, and the potential appeal of its action-packed visuals might contribute to a decent opening weekend performance.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems relatively cautious, considering the factors that might contribute to a strong opening weekend performance. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is the historical average opening weekend gross of the Transformers franchise. The base rate might be lower than the initial probability, as the franchise has experienced a decline in box office performance in recent years.

Final prediction: *0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will 'The Flash' (2023) gross over $100 million on its domestic opening weekend, as per the official box office numbers from Box Office Mojo, when the 3-day weekend data for June 16-18 is finalized? This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'The Flash' grosses more than $100,000,000 on its first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of release. The domestic weekend box office total may include earnings from the United States, Canada, or other countries, as per the Box Office Mojo definition. If final data is not available by June 26, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible source will be used to resolve the market.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Weak (2): The DC Extended Universe (DCEU) has been experiencing a decline in box office performance in recent years, which might affect 'The Flash' (Strength: 2).
- Weak (2): The movie's production and release were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and other issues, which might have impacted its marketing and overall quality (Strength: 2).
- Weak (1): The movie's trailers and teasers received mixed reviews from critics and fans, which might affect its box office performance (Strength: 1).
- Weak (1): The movie has a relatively high production budget, which might put pressure on its box office performance to break even (Strength: 1).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Strong (4): The 'Flash' has a dedicated fan base and a well-established character in the DCEU, which can drive box office interest (Strength: 4).
- Strong (4): The movie's release coincides with the summer season, typically a peak time for blockbuster movies and high box office earnings (Strength: 4).
- Weak (2): The movie's cast, including Ezra Miller and Michael Keaton, has a strong following and can attract viewers (Strength: 2).
- Weak (1): The movie's marketing campaign has been significant, with a strong focus on action and visuals, which can appeal to a wide audience (Strength: 1).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the mixed reasons for both "yes" and "no," it seems that the "yes" reasons have a slight edge. The dedicated fan base and summer release are strong factors in favor of a successful opening weekend. However, the decline of the DCEU and the movie's production issues are concerns that might affect its performance.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
My initial probability seems to be somewhat conservative, given the strong "yes" reasons. However, considering the base rate of movies grossing over $100 million on their opening weekend, it's not an extremely rare event. I should not be overly confident in my prediction. Additionally, the box office landscape is subject to various external factors, such as competition from other movies and global events.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Donald J. Trump participate in the first Republican National Committee (RNC)-sanctioned presidential primary debate scheduled for August 23, 2023? This question considers participation as directly speaking at least once during the debate and being acknowledged by the moderator. If the debate is split into multiple days or rounds, all days will be considered. If the debate is cancelled, delayed, or rescheduled to start after September 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, the answer will be "No." The primary resolution source will be footage of the debate, with credible reporting serving as a secondary source.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Trump might be hesitant to participate in debates due to past experiences, such as the 2020 presidential debates, where he felt he was treated unfairly. (Strength: 3)
- Trump's campaign might decide to boycott debates to avoid potential attacks or to focus on other campaign strategies. (Strength: 4)
- The debate's format, moderators, or other circumstances might be seen as unfavorable to Trump, causing him to decline participation. (Strength: 2)
- Trump might have prior commitments or personal reasons that prevent him from attending the debate. (Strength: 1)
- The debate's scheduling might conflict with other important events or activities that Trump has planned. (Strength: 1)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Trump has a history of using debates to his advantage, and participating in this debate could help him maintain momentum in the Republican primary. (Strength: 4)
- Trump's campaign might see participating in the debate as an opportunity to reach a large audience and potentially gain support from undecided voters. (Strength: 4)
- The debate's format and moderators might be more favorable to Trump, allowing him to present his message effectively. (Strength: 2)
- Trump has previously shown a willingness to participate in debates, even in the face of controversy or criticism. (Strength: 3)
- The RNC might have made concessions or changes to the debate format to accommodate Trump's preferences, increasing the likelihood of his participation. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that the balance of factors is leaning slightly towards Trump participating in the debate. His history of using debates to his advantage and the potential benefits of participating in the debate outweigh the reasons for him not participating.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Trump participating in the debate at 60%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% might be considered not confident enough, given the potential importance of this event for Trump's presidential campaign. It's essential to consider the base rate of Trump participating in debates, which is generally high. Additionally, the potential consequences of him not participating, such as losing momentum or alienating supporters, might be significant.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the importance of this event and the potential consequences of Trump not participating, I would adjust the probability to a more conservative estimate. *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Detroit Pistons lose 27 games in a row in the 2023-24 season, extending their current losing streak beyond the current NBA record of 26 games? The Pistons have currently lost 23 games in a row, and if they win any of their next four games, this market will immediately resolve to "No". If they tie for the longest single-season losing streak at 26 games, it will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - they must lose 27 games in a row. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA, including game footage, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No":

- **Reason 1: Historical precedent**: The Detroit Pistons have shown resilience in the past and have come back from adversity. They might be due for a turnaround in their performance. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 2: Coaching adjustments**: The team's coach may make strategic adjustments to break the losing streak. This could lead to a win in one of their next games. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 3: Team dynamics**: The players may be motivated to break the losing streak and prove themselves. This could lead to a win in one of their next games. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 4: Schedule**: The Pistons might face a favorable schedule in the coming games, which could give them an opportunity to win. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes":

- **Reason 1: Current form**: The Pistons have already lost 23 games in a row, showing a clear downward trend. It's possible that they continue this trend and lose more games. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 2: Lack of team cohesion**: The team may be struggling with internal issues, which could contribute to their losing streak. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 3: Injuries and player absences**: Key players may be injured or absent, affecting the team's performance and increasing the likelihood of more losses. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 4: Team's recent performance**: The Pistons have shown a lack of ability to string together wins, which could continue if they fail to make significant changes. (Strength: 9/10)

4. Aggregated considerations: 
The main factors to consider are the Pistons' current losing streak, their historical performance, and the potential for a turnaround. While there are valid reasons for both a "Yes" and a "No" answer, the team's current form and recent performance suggest that they are more likely to continue their losing streak.

5. Initial probability: 70

6. Evaluation of the initial probability: 
The initial probability of 70 seems reasonable, given the considerations above. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event. The Pistons' current losing streak is significant, but it's not unprecedented. Teams have come back from longer losing streaks before. Therefore, the probability might be slightly lower than 70.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Sam Altman officially announce the creation of a new company where he holds a significant position (such as founder, co-founder, CEO, etc.) by November 24, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, through a public and verifiable announcement on official channels, including but not limited to, his verified social media accounts, press releases, media reports, or official company announcements? The announcement must explicitly reference the creation of a new company and not merely imply it. Note that an announcement by the resolution date of a new company suffices - the company need not be created by the resolution date.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Lack of public statements**: Sam Altman has not made any public statements about starting a new company, which might indicate that he is not planning to do so. Strength: 6/10
- **Reason 2: Current involvement with Y Combinator**: As the president of Y Combinator, Sam Altman might be too busy with his current role to start a new company. Strength: 5/10
- **Reason 3: Limited information available**: There is limited information available about Sam Altman's plans for a new company, making it difficult to predict whether he will announce one. Strength: 4/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Sam Altman's entrepreneurial history**: Sam Altman has a history of starting new companies, including Loopt and Y Combinator, which suggests that he might be planning to start another one. Strength: 8/10
- **Reason 2: The growing trend of startup founders starting new companies**: The startup ecosystem is constantly evolving, and it's not uncommon for successful founders to start new companies. Strength: 6/10
- **Reason 3: Sam Altman's influence and resources**: As the president of Y Combinator, Sam Altman has access to resources and networks that could help him start a new company. Strength: 7/10

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both yes and no, it seems that the factors pointing towards a new company being announced are stronger than those against it. Sam Altman's entrepreneurial history, his influence, and the growing trend of startup founders starting new companies all suggest that he might announce a new company. However, the lack of public statements and his current involvement with Y Combinator might temper these expectations.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Sam Altman announcing a new company by November 24, 2023, to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, but it might be too confident. Given the limited information available and the uncertainty surrounding Sam Altman's plans, a more conservative estimate might be warranted. Additionally, the base rate of successful startup founders starting new companies is relatively high, which should be taken into account when making this prediction.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the above points, I would adjust the initial probability to 55%. This takes into account the uncertainty and the base rate of successful startup founders starting new companies. 

*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Egyptian government officially announce and implement a policy or measure by November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, allowing Palestinian refugees to pass through the Rafah border crossing, establish a humanitarian corridor, or create another mechanism for direct passage into Egypt? This market will resolve to "Yes" if such an announcement and implementation occur before the specified deadline, and to "No" if not.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-10 for strength):

- The Egyptian government has historically been cautious in opening the Rafah border crossing, often citing security concerns and the need for coordination with Israel and other parties. (Strength: 8)
- The current Egyptian government has maintained a tough stance on the Palestinian issue, with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi being critical of Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. (Strength: 7)
- The Egyptian government might prioritize domestic issues and economic concerns over opening the border for Palestinian refugees. (Strength: 6)
- The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is complex, and Egypt's role in resolving the issue is limited, which might lead to a lack of clear direction from the Egyptian government on the border issue. (Strength: 5)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-10 for strength):

- There have been instances in the past where Egypt has temporarily opened the Rafah border crossing for humanitarian reasons, such as during the 2014 Gaza conflict. (Strength: 6)
- The Egyptian government might be pressured by international organizations and countries to take a more active role in addressing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. (Strength: 7)
- A potential agreement or deal between Egypt, Israel, and the Palestinian Authority could lead to the opening of the border. (Strength: 8)
- The Egyptian government might be seeking to improve its relations with the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, which could lead to a more open border policy. (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the balance of evidence suggests that the Egyptian government is unlikely to open the border for Palestinian refugees by November 30, 2023, due to its historical caution and current stance on the Palestinian issue. However, there are some potential factors that could lead to a more open policy, such as international pressure and a potential agreement between Egypt, Israel, and the Palestinian Authority.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of the Egyptian government opening the border for Palestinian refugees by November 30, 2023, at 30%.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
My initial probability might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the potential impact of international pressure and a potential agreement between Egypt, Israel, and the Palestinian Authority. However, the historical context and current stance of the Egyptian government suggest that a more cautious approach is likely. Considering the base rate of the event, which is relatively low, my initial probability might be considered reasonable.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Israel initiate a large-scale military operation involving more than 1000 ground forces in Gaza by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (UTC +3), marking the beginning of a major ground offensive? This question will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting, and the event must occur before the specified deadline for it to be considered resolved. If the event occurs before the expiry date, the market will resolve immediately.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Israel has been conducting smaller-scale military operations and special operations in Gaza, but there is no indication of a large-scale ground offensive in the near future (Strength: 3).
- The current Israeli government has been focused on maintaining a fragile ceasefire with Hamas, and a major ground offensive could destabilize the situation (Strength: 4).
- The international community, including the United States, has been urging restraint from both Israel and Hamas, which might discourage a large-scale military operation (Strength: 3).
- Israel's military has been conducting a significant amount of airstrikes and artillery bombardments in Gaza, but this does not necessarily indicate a large-scale ground offensive (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Tensions between Israel and Hamas have been escalating, and a major ground offensive could be a response to increased rocket attacks or other provocations (Strength: 4).
- Israel's military has been preparing for a potential ground operation, including mobilizing troops and equipment (Strength: 3).
- The Israeli government has been facing domestic pressure to take action against Hamas, which could lead to a major ground offensive (Strength: 3).
- A major ground offensive could be a response to a specific event or incident, such as a major rocket attack or a terrorist operation (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the provided information and my analysis, I consider the following factors:

- The lack of clear indication of a large-scale ground operation in the near future.
- The fragile ceasefire and the potential consequences of a major ground offensive.
- The international community's urging for restraint.
- The escalation of tensions between Israel and Hamas.
- The Israeli military's preparations for a potential ground operation.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I estimate the initial probability of Israel launching a major ground offensive in Gaza by October 31, 2023, to be 40.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
My initial probability seems relatively moderate, considering the uncertain nature of the situation. However, I should consider the base rate of major ground offensives in Gaza, which might be relatively low. Additionally, I should consider the potential for unexpected events or incidents that could trigger a major ground operation. I should also consider the potential for the Israeli government to delay or cancel a planned operation due to domestic or international pressure.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Egyptian government officially announce and open the Rafah border crossing or establish a humanitarian corridor allowing Palestinian refugees to enter Egypt by November 1, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, according to official information from the Egyptian government and a consensus of credible reporting? This question includes any mechanism that directly allows Palestinian refugees to enter Egypt, not just the Rafah border crossing.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- **Egypt's historical reluctance to open its borders:** Egypt has been cautious about opening its borders to Palestinian refugees in the past, citing security concerns and potential economic burdens (Strength: 4).
- **Current regional tensions:** The Middle East is experiencing heightened tensions, which might lead Egypt to prioritize security over humanitarian concerns (Strength: 3).
- **Egypt's economic priorities:** Egypt is focused on its domestic economic development and might not be willing to divert resources to support a large influx of refugees (Strength: 3).
- **Logistical challenges:** Opening the border or establishing a humanitarian corridor would require significant logistical efforts, which might be difficult to implement in a timely manner (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- **International pressure:** The international community, particularly the United States and the European Union, might pressure Egypt to open its borders or establish a humanitarian corridor (Strength: 4).
- **Humanitarian concerns:** The situation in Gaza is dire, and the international community might push Egypt to take action to alleviate the humanitarian crisis (Strength: 4).
- **Egypt's diplomatic efforts:** Egypt has been actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which might lead to a more open stance on refugee issues (Strength: 3).
- **Potential economic benefits:** Opening the border or establishing a humanitarian corridor could bring economic benefits, such as increased trade and investment, which might outweigh the costs (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I weigh the strength of each argument. The historical reluctance of Egypt to open its borders and current regional tensions are significant concerns. However, the international pressure, humanitarian concerns, and potential economic benefits might outweigh these concerns. I also consider the fact that the question is focused on a specific date (November 1, 2023) and a specific action (opening the border or establishing a humanitarian corridor), which might be more feasible than a broader policy shift.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the initial probability of Egypt opening its border or establishing a humanitarian corridor by November 1, 2023, to be 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, but it might be too high considering the historical context and current regional tensions. I should be more cautious and consider the base rate of such events, which is typically low. A more conservative estimate would be to consider a lower probability, such as 40-50%.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Ohio Issue 1, the proposed constitutional amendment that guarantees certain rights to access abortion-related healthcare in Ohio, pass in the November 7, 2023, election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the amendment is approved by the voters. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, with any ambiguity resolved by official governmental information, such as the Ohio Secretary of State's website (XXXX). 

2. Reasons why the answer might be No (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Stronger opposition from conservative groups and politicians (Strength: 4): The proposed amendment may face significant opposition from conservative groups and politicians who are against abortion, which could sway voters to reject the amendment.
- Potential misinformation and disinformation campaigns (Strength: 3): The abortion debate is often marred by misinformation and disinformation campaigns, which could confuse voters and lead them to reject the amendment.
- Historical trend of Ohio voters being more conservative on social issues (Strength: 4): Ohio has historically voted more conservatively on social issues, which could indicate that voters are more likely to reject the amendment.
- Stronger turnout of conservative voters (Strength: 5): A higher turnout of conservative voters could increase the likelihood of the amendment being rejected.
- Economic concerns and other issues taking priority (Strength: 3): Economic concerns and other issues, such as inflation, crime, and education, may take priority over the abortion issue, leading voters to reject the amendment.

3. Reasons why the answer might be Yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Growing support for abortion rights (Strength: 4): There has been a growing trend of support for abortion rights in recent years, particularly among younger voters and those in urban areas.
- Strong advocacy from pro-choice groups (Strength: 5): Pro-choice groups have been actively advocating for the amendment and mobilizing their supporters, which could increase the likelihood of its passage.
- Democratic voter turnout (Strength: 4): A high turnout of Democratic voters, who are more likely to support the amendment, could increase its chances of passage.
- Increased awareness and education on the issue (Strength: 3): Greater awareness and education on the issue could lead to a more informed voting decision and a higher likelihood of the amendment passing.
- Momentum from other states' abortion rights initiatives (Strength: 2): The passage of abortion rights initiatives in other states could create momentum for Ohio's amendment and increase its chances of passage.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against the amendment's passage, I would rate the likelihood of its passage as follows:

- Stronger opposition from conservative groups and politicians: -15%
- Potential misinformation and disinformation campaigns: -10%
- Historical trend of Ohio voters being more conservative on social issues: -15%
- Stronger turnout of conservative voters: -20%
- Economic concerns and other issues taking priority: -10%
- Growing support for abortion rights: +15%
- Strong advocacy from pro-choice groups: +20%
- Democratic voter turnout: +15%
- Increased awareness and education on the issue: +10%
- Momentum from other states' abortion rights initiatives: +5%

Total: -20%

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the amendment passing as 80%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 80% may be excessively confident, as it is based on a relatively simple aggregation of factors. However, I have not considered other factors that could affect the outcome, such as the specific wording of the amendment, the effectiveness of the pro-choice and pro-life campaigns, and the potential for last-minute changes in voter sentiment.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will there be an official announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, acknowledged and accepted by both the Russian and Ukrainian governments, and applicable to the entire territory of Ukraine as defined by the UN, including all regions currently involved in the conflict?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- **Reason 1: Historical tensions and ongoing conflict**: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been ongoing for years, and the two countries have a history of failed peace negotiations and broken agreements. (Strength: 4)
- **Reason 2: Lack of clear communication channels**: The current communication channels between Russia and Ukraine are limited, and there is no clear indication of a willingness to negotiate a ceasefire from either side. (Strength: 3)
- **Reason 3: Russian military gains and momentum**: Russia has been making gains in the conflict, which might make them less inclined to agree to a ceasefire. (Strength: 2)
- **Reason 4: Ukrainian government's stance**: The Ukrainian government has been consistent in its refusal to negotiate with Russia while the conflict continues, which might make a ceasefire agreement less likely. (Strength: 4)
- **Reason 5: International involvement and sanctions**: The international community's continued sanctions on Russia might make it less likely for them to agree to a ceasefire, as they might see it as a concession to the West. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- **Reason 1: International pressure and diplomacy**: The international community, including the United States, the European Union, and other countries, has been applying pressure on Russia to negotiate a ceasefire. (Strength: 4)
- **Reason 2: Economic costs of the conflict**: The ongoing conflict has significant economic costs for both Russia and Ukraine, which might make a ceasefire more appealing to both sides. (Strength: 3)
- **Reason 3: Humanitarian concerns**: The humanitarian situation in Ukraine has been deteriorating, and a ceasefire might be seen as a way to alleviate suffering and reduce the number of casualties. (Strength: 4)
- **Reason 4: Potential for a negotiated settlement**: A ceasefire might be a stepping stone for a more comprehensive negotiated settlement, which could address the underlying issues driving the conflict. (Strength: 3)
- **Reason 5: Shift in Russian priorities**: There might be a shift in Russian priorities, with a focus on domestic issues or other international concerns, making a ceasefire more likely. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the likelihood of a ceasefire is uncertain. The historical tensions and ongoing conflict, lack of clear communication channels, Russian military gains, and Ukrainian government's stance are all factors that make a ceasefire less likely. However, the international pressure and diplomacy, economic costs of the conflict, humanitarian concerns, and potential for a negotiated settlement are factors that make a ceasefire more likely.

5. Initial probability:

Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of a ceasefire announcement by December 31, 2023, at 30%.

6. Evaluation and refinement of the initial probability:

Upon further consideration, I realize that the base rate of ceasefires in similar conflicts is relatively low. Additionally, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been ongoing for years, and the situation is complex and multifaceted. Therefore, my initial probability might be too optimistic. I would refine the probability to 20%.

7. Final prediction:

*0.20*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.2
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will there be a kinetic attack causing significant structural damage to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant between August 2 and September 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, according to credible reporting and consensus among experts, as determined by the market's decentralized resolver, UMA?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

- The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has been a focal point of international attention, and any attack on it would likely be met with severe diplomatic and military consequences, potentially deterring potential attackers. (Strength: 7/10)
- Ukraine and Russia have been engaged in a protracted conflict, but there have been periods of relative calm and diplomatic efforts to resolve the situation peacefully. (Strength: 6/10)
- The plant's location in a disputed region may make it more difficult for an attacker to approach and cause significant damage without being detected or repelled. (Strength: 5/10)
- The international community, including the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has been closely monitoring the plant's safety and security, which may have contributed to a sense of stability. (Strength: 6/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

- The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has been ongoing for years, with periodic escalations and no clear signs of a lasting resolution. This ongoing tension increases the likelihood of further incidents. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has already been the site of shelling and other attacks in the past, which could indicate a willingness by parties involved to target the facility. (Strength: 7/10)
- The plant's location in a contested area makes it a potential target for both sides in the conflict, increasing the risk of an attack. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Russian military has been known to use tactics that could potentially damage the plant, such as artillery strikes or sabotage. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the factors mentioned above, it seems that the likelihood of a kinetic attack causing significant structural damage to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant between August 2 and September 30, 2023, is higher due to the ongoing conflict and the potential for escalation. However, the deterrent effect of international attention and the presence of international monitoring may mitigate this risk.

5. Initial probability: 62

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable given the context, but it might be considered slightly too confident. The ongoing conflict and the potential for escalation are significant factors, but the deterrent effect of international attention and the presence of monitoring should not be underestimated. The base rate of the event is relatively low, as nuclear power plants are typically well-protected and heavily guarded facilities.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will PASOK (The Panhellenic Socialist Movement) receive more than 12% of the total votes in the 2023 Greek legislative election scheduled for June 25, 2023, according to the official results announced by the Hellenic Republic's Ministry of the Interior or credible media sources? The percentage of the vote will be considered unrounded for this market's resolution.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

* PASOK has been a declining force in Greek politics since its peak in the 1980s, which might indicate a decrease in voter support (Strength: 4).
* The Greek political landscape has shifted towards the center-right and far-right parties, potentially reducing PASOK's appeal to voters (Strength: 4).
* PASOK's leadership has faced internal conflicts and criticism, which might have weakened the party's overall performance (Strength: 3).
* The 2023 election is a national election, and PASOK might struggle to gain traction against stronger national parties (Strength: 2).
* PASOK's campaign and policies might not resonate with a significant portion of the Greek electorate, leading to a low vote share (Strength: 3).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

* PASOK still maintains a dedicated voter base and might attract support from those who value social democracy and left-wing policies (Strength: 4).
* The party has a long history in Greek politics and has won elections in the past, indicating its potential to still be a competitive force (Strength: 3).
* PASOK's campaign might focus on issues that resonate with a significant portion of the electorate, such as economic inequality or social justice (Strength: 3).
* The party's platform and policies might appeal to younger voters or those who feel disillusioned with the current government (Strength: 2).
* PASOK has a strong presence in certain regions, which could translate to a higher vote share (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the factors pointing towards a "no" outcome (PASOK receiving less than 12% of the votes) are slightly stronger. However, it's essential to note that PASOK still has a dedicated voter base and a rich history in Greek politics. The party's ability to attract support from those who value social democracy and left-wing policies might still be a significant factor.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would initially estimate the probability of PASOK receiving more than 12% of the votes at around 20%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
Upon further reflection, I realize that the initial probability might be too low. PASOK's dedicated voter base and historical presence in Greek politics suggest that it's not entirely implausible for the party to receive a significant portion of the votes. Additionally, the base rate of PASOK receiving less than 12% of the votes is not particularly high, as the party has historically performed better in elections. Therefore, the initial probability might be too conservative.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the above points, I adjust my initial probability to a more moderate level. My final prediction is: *0.45*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Hezbollah officially declare war on Israel by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, marking a clear and explicit declaration of hostilities, without any declarations of war by Israel or Hamas being considered in this assessment?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Hezbollah has maintained a delicate balance between its militant activities and diplomatic efforts in Lebanon and the region, which might lead them to avoid an official declaration of war. (Strength: 4)
- The ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict and regional dynamics might not be favorable for Hezbollah to initiate a direct confrontation with Israel, at least for now. (Strength: 4)
- Hezbollah's military and strategic priorities might be focused on other regional conflicts or domestic issues, such as the Lebanese economy and internal politics. (Strength: 3)
- Hezbollah's leadership might be cautious about provoking a wider conflict that could destabilize Lebanon or the region. (Strength: 4)
- Hezbollah's recent actions and statements do not suggest an imminent intention to declare war on Israel. (Strength: 5)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Hezbollah has a history of militant actions against Israel, and their rhetoric has been increasingly aggressive in recent years. (Strength: 4)
- The Israeli government's policies in the region, such as its stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and its actions in the Gaza Strip, might be perceived by Hezbollah as provocative and justify a declaration of war. (Strength: 4)
- Hezbollah's strategic partnership with Iran might lead them to seek a confrontation with Israel as a way to distract from domestic issues or to demonstrate their strength to Iran. (Strength: 3)
- Hezbollah's domestic support base and its role in Lebanese politics might require them to take a more assertive stance against Israel to maintain their influence. (Strength: 4)
- The ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the potential for miscalculation or escalation might lead to a situation where Hezbollah feels forced to declare war on Israel. (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the above points, the most significant factors against an official declaration of war by Hezbollah are their cautious approach to regional conflicts and their focus on domestic issues. However, their history of militant actions, aggressive rhetoric, and the potential for miscalculation in the region suggest that there is a possibility of a declaration of war.

5. Initial probability: 25

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 25 might be considered too low given the history of Hezbollah's militant actions and aggressive rhetoric towards Israel. However, the cautious approach and focus on domestic issues in Lebanon also suggest that an official declaration of war is not a certainty. The base rate of Hezbollah declaring war on Israel is difficult to estimate, but it is likely to be relatively low given their history of avoiding direct confrontations with Israel.

7. Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Javier Milei win the 2023 Argentina Presidential election by more than 5% in the second round, as determined by the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes he receives and the percentage of valid votes received by Sergio Massa? The margin of victory will be calculated by subtracting Massa's percentage of valid votes from Milei's percentage of valid votes. Valid votes are defined as votes cast for either Sergio Massa or Javier Milei, excluding votes that are blank, null, etc. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each candidate receives by the sum of all valid votes received by both candidates. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Argentine government.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1 to 10, where 1 is a weak reason and 10 is a strong reason):
- Argentina has a history of close presidential elections, and the margin of victory is often relatively small. (Strength: 8)
- Sergio Massa has been the current president and has a strong support base, which might help him to stay competitive in the election. (Strength: 6)
- The second round of the election is often more unpredictable than the first round, and it's possible that other factors could influence the outcome. (Strength: 4)
- The Argentine economy has faced significant challenges in recent years, and the election outcome might be influenced by economic factors that are difficult to predict. (Strength: 9)
- Javier Milei's campaign has been marked by controversy and criticism, which might hurt his chances of winning by a significant margin. (Strength: 5)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1 to 10, where 1 is a weak reason and 10 is a strong reason):
- Javier Milei has gained significant momentum in the polls in recent months, which suggests that he has a strong chance of winning the election. (Strength: 9)
- Milei's message of economic reform and change has resonated with many Argentinians, who are frustrated with the current economic situation. (Strength: 8)
- The Argentine economy is facing significant challenges, and voters might be looking for a change in leadership. (Strength: 7)
- Milei has a strong social media presence and has been able to mobilize a large following, which could help him to win the election. (Strength: 5)
- The second round of the election is often more about the personality and charisma of the candidates, and Milei has been able to connect with voters in a way that Massa has not. (Strength: 6)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided above, the main factors that will influence the outcome of the election are the margin of victory, the economic situation in Argentina, and the candidates' ability to connect with voters. While there are valid reasons to believe that the answer might be no, the momentum behind Javier Milei's campaign and the economic challenges facing Argentina suggest that he has a strong chance of winning the election by a significant margin.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Javier Milei winning the election by more than 5% as 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable given the factors mentioned above. However, it's worth noting that the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of a candidate winning by a significant margin in a presidential election) is not well-defined. Additionally, there are many factors that could influence the outcome of the election, including economic factors, campaign strategies, and voter turnout.

7. Final prediction:
*0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Drake's album "For All the Dogs" be released by October 6, 2023, 11:59 PM PT? If the album is officially available on Spotify or Apple Music by the specified date and time, or if credible reporting confirms its release by this date, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, with primary consideration given to the album's official release on major music streaming platforms.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-10, with 10 being the strongest reason):
- Drake has been known to delay releases in the past, which might indicate a tendency towards perfectionism or strategic marketing (Strength: 8)
- The album's production process, which often involves collaborations and features from other artists, might be taking longer than expected (Strength: 6)
- Drake's previous album releases have been subject to last-minute changes or delays, which could be a pattern (Strength: 5)
- There might be issues with the album's mastering, mixing, or other technical aspects that could cause a delay (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-10, with 10 being the strongest reason):
- Drake has a history of releasing albums on a relatively consistent schedule, suggesting a possible release on the announced date (Strength: 9)
- The album's marketing campaign has been active, which might indicate a release is imminent (Strength: 8)
- Drake often releases albums on Fridays, which is a common practice in the music industry (Strength: 7)
- The album's release date has been announced, and it's possible that Drake's team is sticking to the planned schedule (Strength: 6)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both "yes" and "no," it seems that Drake's history of releasing albums on schedule and the active marketing campaign for "For All the Dogs" might outweigh the potential reasons for a delay. However, the possibility of delays due to perfectionism or technical issues cannot be ruled out entirely.

5. Initial probability: 70
Based on the aggregated considerations, I believe there's a 70% chance that Drake's album "For All the Dogs" will be released by October 6, 2023.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
Upon reviewing my initial probability, I realize it might be too high. While Drake's history and marketing efforts suggest a possible release, the reasons for a delay are not insignificant. Additionally, the base rate of album releases being delayed is relatively high in the music industry. Considering these factors, I might have been too optimistic.

7. Final prediction: *0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Federal Reserve increase the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 0 basis points (bps) after its September 2023 meeting, as indicated by the FOMC's decision on the target federal funds range, as stated in the FOMC's meeting statement scheduled for September 19-20, 2023, which will be released on the official Federal Reserve website? 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- **Reason 1: Economic indicators suggest a need for rate hikes.** (Strength: 6/10) - If the economic indicators such as inflation rates, GDP growth, or labor market conditions are stronger than expected, the Fed might choose to raise interest rates to control inflation or prevent overheating.
- **Reason 2: Concerns about economic downturn.** (Strength: 4/10) - If there are concerns about an impending economic recession or a slowdown, the Fed might choose to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy.
- **Reason 3: Previous rate hikes.** (Strength: 7/10) - The Fed has already raised interest rates multiple times in 2022 and 2023, and they might choose to pause or slow down the rate hikes to avoid over-tightening the economy.
- **Reason 4: Global economic uncertainty.** (Strength: 5/10) - Global economic uncertainty, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Chinese economic slowdown, or other international events, might lead the Fed to be cautious and not raise interest rates.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- **Reason 1: Inflation control.** (Strength: 8/10) - The Fed has been focusing on controlling inflation, and if inflation rates remain high, they might choose to raise interest rates to keep inflation in check.
- **Reason 2: Strong labor market.** (Strength: 6/10) - A strong labor market with low unemployment rates might lead the Fed to raise interest rates to prevent wage growth and inflation from getting out of control.
- **Reason 3: Previous rate cuts.** (Strength: 4/10) - The Fed has raised interest rates multiple times in the past, and they might choose to continue this trend to maintain their credibility and control over the economy.
- **Reason 4: Hawkish Fed stance.** (Strength: 5/10) - The Fed has been taking a hawkish stance on interest rates, and they might choose to continue raising rates to combat inflation and maintain economic stability.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the Fed's decision to raise interest rates by 0 bps seems unlikely, as the inflation control and strong labor market suggest a need for further rate hikes. However, the previous rate hikes, global economic uncertainty, and concerns about economic downturn might lead to a pause or slower rate hikes.

5. Initial probability: 30

6. Evaluation of confidence and base rate:
The initial probability of 30 seems too low, as the Fed has been raising interest rates consistently in the past. The base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 0 bps) is likely low, but the initial probability might be too conservative. Considering the strong labor market and inflation control, the probability should be higher.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) detonate a nuclear device in any capacity by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting? This includes intentional nuclear tests, but excludes failed detonations, fake weapons, dirty bombs, or the use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate. A successful nuclear detonation initiated by North Korea will result in a "Yes" resolution.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

- North Korea's economy is heavily dependent on international trade, and a nuclear detonation would likely lead to severe economic sanctions, potentially crippling its economy. (Strength: 6/10)
- The international community, particularly the United States, China, and South Korea, have consistently demonstrated a strong opposition to North Korea's nuclear program and would likely impose harsher sanctions in response to a detonation. (Strength: 7/10)
- North Korea's military has not demonstrated the capability to successfully deliver a nuclear warhead to a target, which could limit the likelihood of a nuclear detonation. (Strength: 5/10)
- The country's nuclear program has experienced setbacks in the past, including the failed launch of a Hwasong-17 missile in November 2022. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

- North Korea has consistently demonstrated a willingness to conduct nuclear tests, with six previous nuclear tests between 2006 and 2017. (Strength: 8/10)
- The country has continued to develop its nuclear program, with increased activity at the Yongbyon nuclear facility and the launch of a Hwasong-17 missile in November 2022. (Strength: 7/10)
- North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un, has repeatedly stated his commitment to developing the country's nuclear program and has shown a willingness to take risks to achieve his goals. (Strength: 8/10)
- The country's nuclear program is likely driven by a desire to ensure its national security and deter potential threats from the United States and its allies. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it appears that the likelihood of a nuclear detonation is influenced by a mix of internal and external factors. While North Korea has a history of nuclear tests and a continued commitment to its program, the country's economic dependence on international trade and the international community's opposition to its nuclear program create obstacles to a detonation.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40% may be too low, given the country's history of nuclear tests and its continued development of its program. However, the potential consequences of a detonation, including severe economic sanctions and international condemnation, should not be underestimated. The base rate of the event is difficult to estimate, as there is no clear precedent for North Korea's behavior.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Holly Mitchell be officially appointed or elected to replace Dianne Feinstein in the US Senate by the specified question close date (2024-11-04), based on official information from the State of California and the government of the United States, and a consensus of credible reporting?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Holly Mitchell might not be the chosen candidate for replacement by the State of California or the US government. (Strength: 3)
- Dianne Feinstein's health might improve, and she could continue serving in the US Senate. (Strength: 2)
- There might be other candidates with stronger qualifications or backing that could be preferred for the position. (Strength: 4)
- The process of appointing or electing a replacement could be delayed or stalled due to various reasons such as political gridlock or bureaucratic issues. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Holly Mitchell is a well-known and respected politician in California, and her appointment or election could be a popular choice. (Strength: 4)
- The State of California or the US government might prioritize diversity and representation, and Holly Mitchell's appointment could be seen as a way to increase representation. (Strength: 4)
- Dianne Feinstein has announced her intention to retire, which could make it more likely for a replacement to be appointed or elected. (Strength: 5)
- The process of appointing or electing a replacement could be expedited due to a sense of urgency or a desire to fill the vacancy quickly. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the most significant factor is Dianne Feinstein's announced intention to retire, which gives a strong indication that a replacement will be appointed or elected. However, there are also factors that could potentially delay or complicate the process, such as the preference for another candidate or bureaucratic issues.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be around 80.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident. The process of appointing or electing a replacement can be complex and influenced by various factors, which could lead to delays or unexpected outcomes. Additionally, the base rate of Holly Mitchell being appointed or elected is not particularly high, as there are many factors at play.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the evaluation, I would adjust the initial probability to a more conservative estimate. *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will Draymond Green receive a suspension of 11 or more games from the NBA between November 14, 2023, and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, excluding any potential suspensions resulting from incidents prior to November 14, 2023? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Draymond Green is suspended for more than 10 games during the specified timeframe and will resolve to "No" if he is not suspended for more than 10 games or if no suspension is issued by the NBA by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **Draymond Green's History of Discipline (Strength: 6/10)**: Draymond Green has had his share of disciplinary issues in the past, but he has also shown the ability to manage his behavior and avoid lengthy suspensions. His recent actions and behavior might suggest that he is more mindful of his conduct on the court.
2. **NBA's Treatment of Draymond Green (Strength: 4/10)**: The NBA has been relatively lenient with Draymond Green in the past, often imposing lighter suspensions or fines for similar infractions. This leniency might continue, reducing the likelihood of a lengthy suspension.
3. **Golden State Warriors' Performance (Strength: 3/10)**: The Golden State Warriors' recent performance and playoff aspirations might lead the NBA to be more cautious in imposing suspensions that could harm their chances in the playoffs.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **Draymond Green's Physicality and Aggression (Strength: 9/10)**: Draymond Green is known for his physical play and has been involved in several altercations on the court. His aggressive behavior increases the likelihood of a suspension, especially if he commits a flagrant foul or engages in a fight.
2. **Recent Incidents and Escalation (Strength: 8/10)**: Draymond Green has been involved in several high-profile incidents in recent years, and the NBA might be more likely to impose a longer suspension if he is involved in another altercation, especially if it results in injury to an opponent.
3. **NBA's Increased Emphasis on Player Safety (Strength: 7/10)**: The NBA has been emphasizing player safety and enforcing rules to reduce physical contact and altercations on the court. If Draymond Green is involved in an incident that results in injury or excessive contact, the NBA might impose a longer suspension.

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Considering the reasons above, I weigh the likelihood of a lengthy suspension for Draymond Green. While there are valid reasons for both a "Yes" and "No" outcome, the factors pointing towards a suspension (Draymond Green's physicality, recent incidents, and the NBA's emphasis on player safety) seem more significant.

**Initial Probability: 60**

**Evaluation and Refining the Probability:**

Upon further consideration, I realize that the base rate of lengthy suspensions for Draymond Green is relatively low, and the NBA's leniency in the past might influence their decision. However, the recent emphasis on player safety and Draymond Green's aggressive behavior suggest that a lengthy suspension is possible.

**Final Probability: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the "High" price of any 1-minute candle for BTC-USD on Coinbase between July 7, 2023, 12:00 ET and July 14, 2023, 23:59 ET reach or exceed $32,500.00? The resolution of this market is based solely on the "High" prices available on Coinbase's BTC-USD 1-minute candle chart, which can be accessed at XXXX with "1m" and "Candles" selected. The "High" price for each candle can be viewed by hovering over the candle and looking at the value "H" at the top of the chart.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- Reason 1: Historical volatility: The price of Bitcoin has been known to be highly volatile, and it's possible that the price might not reach $32,500.00 due to market fluctuations. (Strength: 8)
- Reason 2: Current market trends: If the current market trends indicate a decline or stagnation in the price of Bitcoin, it's less likely to reach $32,500.00. (Strength: 6)
- Reason 3: Global economic factors: Global economic factors such as inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical tensions can affect the price of Bitcoin, making it less likely to reach $32,500.00. (Strength: 7)
- Reason 4: Regulatory changes: Changes in regulations or policies regarding cryptocurrencies can negatively impact the price of Bitcoin, making it less likely to reach $32,500.00. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- Reason 1: Bullish sentiment: If there's a strong bullish sentiment among investors and traders, it's possible that the price of Bitcoin might reach $32,500.00. (Strength: 9)
- Reason 2: Positive news and announcements: Positive news and announcements about Bitcoin, such as partnerships or adoption by major companies, can increase the price and make it more likely to reach $32,500.00. (Strength: 8)
- Reason 3: Increased institutional investment: Increased institutional investment in Bitcoin can drive up the price and make it more likely to reach $32,500.00. (Strength: 7)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Based on the reasons provided, it seems that the reasons for a "no" answer are stronger, with a total strength of 29 (8 + 6 + 7 + 8) and the reasons for a "yes" answer having a total strength of 24 (9 + 8 + 7). However, it's essential to consider the uncertainty and unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market, which might lead to an unexpected outcome.

5. Initial probability:

Given the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of the answer being yes at 40%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:

The initial probability of 40% seems relatively low, considering the potential for unexpected events or market movements. It's also essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is not explicitly provided. However, based on historical data, it's likely that the base rate of the event (i.e., the price of Bitcoin reaching $32,500.00) is relatively low.

7. Final prediction:

Considering the initial probability and the evaluation, I would adjust the probability to 25%. This takes into account the uncertainty and unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market and the relatively low base rate of the event.

Final prediction: *0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will every participating candidate in the Republican National Committee (RNC) primary debate scheduled for August 23, 2023, say the word "Biden" at least once during the live debate? The resolution source will be live video of the debate, with official transcripts and/or a consensus of credible reporting considered in case of ambiguity. If the debate is cancelled or delayed beyond September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No."

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Strength: 6/10
   Some candidates might be running on an anti-establishment or outsider platform, which could lead them to avoid mentioning Biden or downplay their connection to him.
- Strength: 4/10
   The debate might not focus heavily on Biden, with other topics like the economy, foreign policy, or social issues taking center stage, potentially minimizing the chances of candidates mentioning him.
- Strength: 3/10
   A few candidates might be relatively unknown or new to the national stage, potentially leading to a lack of familiarity with Biden or hesitation to bring him up in conversation.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Strength: 9/10
   Given the current political climate and the fact that the debate is a primary, it's likely that many candidates will want to establish their differences with the incumbent president, which would involve mentioning Biden.
- Strength: 8/10
   The debate will likely cover topics like the 2024 election, and discussing Biden's policies or actions will be a natural part of those discussions.
- Strength: 7/10
   The RNC primary debate will feature a diverse range of candidates, and many will likely feel the need to differentiate themselves from Biden, who is the incumbent president from the opposing party.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the debate's focus on the 2024 election and the desire of candidates to differentiate themselves from the incumbent president suggest a high likelihood of candidates mentioning Biden. However, the potential for some candidates to avoid mentioning him or downplay their connection to him could temper this expectation.

5. Initial probability: 85
Given the considerations above, I believe there is an 85% chance that every participating candidate in the RNC primary debate will say the word "Biden" at least once during the live debate.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability might be excessively confident, given the uncertainty surrounding individual candidate behavior and the potential for unexpected topics or moments during the debate. However, considering the base rate of candidates mentioning the incumbent president in a primary debate, it's not too far-fetched to assume that many will bring him up.

7. Final prediction: *0.8*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.8
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Vladimir Putin remain the President of Russia without interruption from June 12, 2023, through December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, according to the CIA World Factbook or a consensus of credible reporting? This question assumes that Putin's term as President will end on December 31, 2023, as per the current Russian presidential term limit, which is six years. If Putin does not relinquish the presidency, is removed from office, or if he dies in office, the market will resolve to "No."

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):

   a. Health issues: Putin's health has been a subject of speculation in recent years, and any significant decline in his health could potentially lead to his removal from office or his inability to continue serving as President. (Strength: 6/10)
   b. Constitutional changes: Russia's Constitution can be amended, and there is a possibility that the current presidential term limit could be extended or abolished. (Strength: 4/10)
   c. Economic or social unrest: Widespread economic or social unrest could lead to Putin's removal from office or a change in government. (Strength: 5/10)
   d. International pressure or sanctions: International pressure or sanctions could potentially lead to Putin's removal from office or a change in government. (Strength: 4/10)
   e. Succession crisis: Putin has not publicly named a clear successor, and a potential succession crisis could lead to a change in government. (Strength: 6/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):

   a. Putin's control over Russian politics: Putin has maintained a tight grip on Russian politics for decades and has shown a willingness to do whatever it takes to maintain power. (Strength: 8/10)
   b. Lack of opposition: The Russian opposition has been weakened, and there are few credible alternatives to Putin. (Strength: 7/10)
   c. Putin's popularity: Putin remains relatively popular in Russia, and his popularity could help him maintain power. (Strength: 6/10)
   d. Constitutional term limit: Putin's current term is set to end on December 31, 2023, and he has not indicated any intention to extend his term. (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Putin's control over Russian politics, his popularity, and the lack of opposition all suggest that he will likely remain in power. However, the potential for health issues, constitutional changes, economic or social unrest, international pressure, and a succession crisis could potentially lead to his removal from office.

5. Initial probability: 70

6. Evaluation:
The initial probability of 70 seems reasonable given the factors considered. However, it may be overly confident, as there are many potential variables that could affect the outcome. The base rate of the event (Putin remaining in power) is likely high, given his past performance and control over Russian politics. However, the potential for unexpected events, such as a health crisis or a sudden change in public opinion, could affect the outcome.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will former President Bill Clinton be arrested between January 3rd and January 10th, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, according to a consensus of credible reporting? The resolution of this question is contingent upon verifiable information from reliable news sources, and the question will be resolved based on the occurrence of an arrest within the specified timeframe.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 8/10):
   a. Bill Clinton is a well-connected and respected figure in American politics, and it's unlikely that he would be arrested without significant evidence of wrongdoing. (Strength: 6/10)
   b. Former presidents are generally accorded a high level of respect and deference, and it's possible that law enforcement would be hesitant to arrest a former head of state without a compelling reason. (Strength: 5/10)
   c. There have been no public indications of any ongoing investigations or charges against Bill Clinton that would suggest an arrest is imminent. (Strength: 8/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 4/10):
   a. Bill Clinton has faced numerous controversies throughout his career, including the Monica Lewinsky scandal and allegations of financial impropriety. (Strength: 3/10)
   b. The current political climate in the United States is highly polarized, and it's possible that prosecutors or law enforcement might be motivated to pursue charges against a high-profile figure like Bill Clinton. (Strength: 4/10)
   c. There have been recent high-profile arrests of public figures, suggesting that law enforcement is willing to pursue charges against prominent individuals. (Strength: 2/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the balance of evidence suggests that an arrest of Bill Clinton between January 3rd and January 10th, 2024, is unlikely. While there are some potential reasons why an arrest could occur, the strength of these reasons is relatively low. The fact that there have been no public indications of any ongoing investigations or charges against Bill Clinton, combined with his high level of respect and connection in American politics, makes it less likely that he would be arrested.

5. Initial probability: 20

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 20% may be overly cautious, given the low strength of the reasons why the answer might be yes. However, it's also possible that there are factors not yet publicly known that could influence the likelihood of an arrest. The base rate of former presidents being arrested is extremely low, which should be taken into account when evaluating the probability.

7. Final prediction: *0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the closing price of the BTC-USD 1-minute candle on Coinbase for August 31, 2023, at 23:59 ET be $26,000.01 or higher?

To better answer this question, I will consider various factors that might influence the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase, including market trends, economic conditions, and potential events that could impact the cryptocurrency market. I will also analyze the historical price movements of Bitcoin on Coinbase and the factors that have driven its price fluctuations in the past.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strong to weak):

- **Strong (8/10)**: Historically, Bitcoin's price has been known to be highly volatile, and a significant price drop could occur due to market sentiment, regulatory changes, or other unforeseen events. This volatility might lead to a price below $26,000.01 on August 31.
- **Medium (6/10)**: The cryptocurrency market is often subject to speculation, and investors might be selling their Bitcoin holdings in the days leading up to August 31, potentially driving the price down.
- **Weak (4/10)**: The global economic situation, including inflation rates and interest rates, could influence the price of Bitcoin. If the global economy experiences a downturn, it might negatively impact the price of Bitcoin.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strong to weak):

- **Strong (8/10)**: There is a possibility that the cryptocurrency market will continue to recover from its previous downturns, and investors might be optimistic about the future of Bitcoin, leading to a higher price on August 31.
- **Medium (6/10)**: The increasing adoption of cryptocurrencies and the development of new use cases for Bitcoin might lead to increased demand and a higher price.
- **Weak (4/10)**: Some investors might be holding onto their Bitcoin in anticipation of a price increase, which could lead to a higher closing price on August 31.

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the above factors, it seems that the market is evenly split between a potential price drop and a potential price increase. However, the strong possibility of a price drop due to historical volatility and market speculation might slightly tip the balance in favor of a no answer.

5. Initial probability:

Based on my analysis, I would initially estimate the probability of the answer being yes to be around 40%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

Upon reviewing my initial probability, I realize that it might be too low. While there are valid reasons for a potential price drop, the cryptocurrency market is known for its unpredictability, and a price increase is also a plausible outcome. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of the price being above $26,000.01 on any given day) is not provided, but it is likely to be low. Considering these factors, I might adjust my initial probability to a more conservative estimate.

7. Final prediction:

*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Drake's album 'For All the Dogs' sell over 400,000 units (including streaming equivalents) in its first week of release, which is scheduled to be August 25, 2023? If the album is not released by September 30, 2023, PT, the market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at XXXX. If the specified chart is unavailable or does not list 'For All the Dogs', another credible resolution source may be chosen. The market will be resolved according to the figure in the column titled "TOTAL" once the list is finalized.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Drake's recent chart performance has been inconsistent, with some albums not reaching the same heights as his earlier works (Strength: 6/10). 
- The music industry is highly competitive, and many albums are released simultaneously, which might dilute Drake's potential sales (Strength: 7/10).
- The album's release date coincides with the end of summer, which might lead to a slower sales pace compared to the peak summer months (Strength: 5/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Drake has a massive fan base and a strong track record of selling well, especially in the United States (Strength: 9/10).
- The album's release date is relatively late in the year, which might help it capitalize on the holiday season and year-end sales (Strength: 8/10).
- Drake's marketing and promotional efforts are typically well-executed, which could lead to strong initial sales (Strength: 8/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Taking into account the reasons provided, it seems that Drake's past performance, fan base, and marketing efforts are strong indicators of potential success. However, the competitive music industry, inconsistent chart performance, and release timing might hinder his sales. The overall balance of these factors leans towards a positive outcome for Drake.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of Drake's album selling over 400,000 units in its first week to be around 70%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, considering Drake's past performance and strong marketing efforts. However, it might be slightly too confident, given the competitive music industry and inconsistent chart performance. Additionally, the base rate of albums selling over 400,000 units in their first week is relatively low, which should be taken into account when adjusting the probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will anyone be arrested by July 15, 2023 ET in connection with the discovery of a bag of cocaine found in the White House, as per official information from the US government or credible reporting? This market will resolve to "Yes" if an arrest is made, regardless of the outcome of any subsequent investigations or trials. The resolution of this market is not contingent on the guilt or innocence of the arrested individual(s).

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-10, where 10 is the strongest):
- The White House has a robust security system and protocols in place, which might prevent the cocaine from being related to a current or former employee or visitor. (Strength: 6)
- The investigation might be ongoing, and the authorities might not have enough evidence to make an arrest by July 15. (Strength: 8)
- The cocaine might have been planted or introduced into the White House by an outsider, and the authorities might not be able to identify the perpetrator by the deadline. (Strength: 5)
- The US government might be aware of the situation but choose not to make an arrest due to diplomatic or other considerations. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-10, where 10 is the strongest):
- The discovery of a bag of cocaine in the White House is a serious incident, and the authorities might expedite the investigation to prevent any potential security breaches or reputational damage. (Strength: 9)
- The White House has a history of taking swift action in cases of security breaches or incidents involving illicit substances. (Strength: 7)
- The authorities might have already identified a suspect or suspects and are waiting for the right moment to make an arrest. (Strength: 6)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I believe that the authorities are likely to make an arrest by July 15 due to the seriousness of the incident and the need to maintain public trust in the White House. However, the strength of the security system and the possibility of an ongoing investigation might delay the arrest.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
My initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the strength of the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer. However, I might be underestimating the efficiency of the investigation and the desire of the authorities to resolve the situation quickly. Additionally, I should consider the base rate of arrests in similar cases, which might be relatively low.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the State of Israel announce a temporary pause in the fighting for a period of at least 24 consecutive hours between November 12 and 30, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) for humanitarian purposes, such as allowing people to leave a conflict area, repairs to be made, or bringing in humanitarian relief or other supplies, as per the official information from the State of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):

- Israel's military objectives and strategic interests may not align with a humanitarian pause, potentially leading to continued fighting. (Strength: 6/10)
- The current situation in the conflict may not be conducive to a pause, such as ongoing escalations or significant military operations. (Strength: 7/10)
- Israel's government or military may not feel pressured or inclined to announce a humanitarian pause, given the current circumstances. (Strength: 5/10)
- There may be alternative solutions or strategies being explored by Israel that do not involve a humanitarian pause. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):

- International pressure and diplomatic efforts may encourage Israel to announce a humanitarian pause for the sake of de-escalation and humanitarian aid. (Strength: 8/10)
- A humanitarian pause could be seen as a strategic opportunity for Israel to demonstrate its commitment to minimizing civilian casualties and addressing humanitarian concerns. (Strength: 7/10)
- The State of Israel may recognize the benefits of a temporary pause to allow for humanitarian relief, repairs, or evacuations, potentially improving the situation on the ground. (Strength: 6/10)
- A humanitarian pause could be a way for Israel to signal a willingness to negotiate or engage in peace talks. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the factors working against a humanitarian pause (reasons for "no") are stronger than those working in favor of it (reasons for "yes"). However, the strength of the reasons is not overwhelmingly one-sided, and there are some plausible arguments for both sides.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the initial probability of Israel announcing a 24h+ humanitarian pause by November 30 to be around 30.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon reflection, I consider my initial probability to be not confident enough, as the factors working in favor of a humanitarian pause (international pressure, strategic benefits, and potential for humanitarian relief) are not negligible. However, the base rate of such announcements is not provided, and I may be overestimating the likelihood of a pause. I should also consider the potential for a pause to be announced but not actually implemented, which could affect the resolution of the market.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will 'Gran Turismo' (2023) gross more than $22 million on its 3-day opening weekend in the domestic box office, which includes the United States and possibly other countries, as reported by Box Office Mojo under the "Domestic Weekend" tab? This prediction is based on the film's actual box office earnings for the first Friday to Sunday of its release, and not on studio estimates. If there is no final data available by September 4, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source will be used for resolution. The opening weekend is defined as the first three days of the film's release, specifically Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. The market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Gran Turismo' (2023) meets or exceeds the $22 million threshold, and to "No" otherwise.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- Reason 1: Competition from other new releases - There may be other movies released around the same time as 'Gran Turismo' (2023), which could attract a significant portion of the audience and reduce the box office earnings of the film. Strength: 6/10
- Reason 2: Genre-specific audience - 'Gran Turismo' (2023) is a racing film, which may appeal to a niche audience. If the film does not attract a broad enough audience, its box office earnings could be lower than expected. Strength: 5/10
- Reason 3: Marketing and promotion - The marketing and promotion strategy of the film may not be effective in reaching a wide audience, leading to lower box office earnings. Strength: 4/10
- Reason 4: Previous films in the series - The 'Gran Turismo' franchise may not have a strong track record in terms of box office performance, which could indicate that the film may not meet the $22 million threshold. Strength: 3/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- Reason 1: Positive reviews and word-of-mouth - If 'Gran Turismo' (2023) receives positive reviews and generates good word-of-mouth, it could attract a large audience and lead to higher box office earnings. Strength: 8/10
- Reason 2: Strong brand recognition - The 'Gran Turismo' franchise has a strong brand recognition, which could attract fans of the series and lead to higher box office earnings. Strength: 7/10
- Reason 3: High production values - The film's high production values, including its visual effects and action sequences, could make it an attractive option for audiences and lead to higher box office earnings. Strength: 6/10
- Reason 4: Summer blockbuster season - The film's release during the summer blockbuster season could lead to higher box office earnings due to the typical increase in movie-going during this time. Strength: 5/10

4. Aggregated considerations:

Based on the reasons provided, it seems that the factors pointing towards a lower box office earnings are relatively weak, while the factors pointing towards higher earnings are stronger. However, it's also possible that the film may not meet the $22 million threshold due to the competition from other releases and the niche audience for racing films.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of 'Gran Turismo' (2023) grossing over $22 million on its opening weekend to be around 62%.

6. Evaluation of confidence:

My initial probability of 62% seems relatively cautious, considering the strong brand recognition and positive reviews that the film is likely to receive. However, the competition from other releases and the niche audience for racing films may still impact the film's box office earnings. I may need to revisit my estimate if more information becomes available.

7. Final prediction:

*0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Jesus Christ return by August 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, according to a consensus of credible sources? The resolution of this market will be based on a collective assessment of the most reliable and widely accepted sources, including theological, biblical, and historical interpretations. This question will be resolved to "Yes" if there is a verified, widely accepted report of Jesus Christ's return by the specified date and time, and to "No" if there is no such report or evidence.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 8/10):
- Jesus Christ's Second Coming is a widely believed event in Christianity, but there is no established timeline or specific date predicted in the Bible or by Christian theologians.
- Many interpretations of Christian eschatology suggest that the timing of Jesus' return is unknown and not specified in the Bible, making it impossible to predict with certainty.
- The concept of the Second Coming is often seen as a spiritual or metaphysical event rather than a physical occurrence that can be measured or verified.
- The idea of Jesus' return is often associated with the end of the world or the apocalypse, which is not a specific event that can be predicted with precision.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1/10):
- There is no concrete evidence or credible sources indicating that Jesus Christ will return by August 31, 2023.
- The Bible does not provide a specific date or timeline for Jesus' return, and most Christian theologians and scholars emphasize the importance of being prepared and vigilant for the Second Coming rather than trying to predict its exact timing.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the lack of concrete evidence, the absence of a specific timeline in the Bible, and the emphasis on spiritual preparation rather than prediction, it seems unlikely that Jesus Christ will return by August 31, 2023. The strength of the "no" reasons outweighs the "yes" reasons, and the absence of credible sources supporting a specific date for the Second Coming further supports this conclusion.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the initial probability of Jesus Christ returning by August 31, 2023, to be 0.05 (5%).

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 0.05 might be considered not confident enough, given the lack of any credible sources or evidence suggesting a specific date for the Second Coming. However, it is essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is extremely low, as the Second Coming is a highly unlikely event in the eyes of most Christians and scholars. This low base rate should be taken into account when evaluating the probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.05*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.05
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the 2023 film 'Barbie' gross more than $16 million domestically in the United States and Canada during the 3-day weekend of August 25-27? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the domestic weekend box office total for 'Barbie' (2023) exceeds $16,000,000 according to the numbers reported on Box Office Mojo, regardless of whether domestic refers to the USA alone or to the USA and Canada combined. If there is no final data available by September 4, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The current date is August 24, 2023, and the question will close on August 27, 2023.

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. Competition from other movies: The weekend of August 25-27 might see the release of other movies that could draw audiences away from 'Barbie'. (Strength: 4)
2. Declining interest in the film: The hype around 'Barbie' might have peaked earlier in its release, and audiences might be losing interest in the film. (Strength: 3)
3. Limited appeal: 'Barbie' might not appeal to a broad audience, potentially limiting its box office potential. (Strength: 2)
4. Previous underperformance: If 'Barbie' underperformed in its previous weekends, it might indicate a trend of declining box office success. (Strength: 1)
5. Unfavorable release timing: The summer blockbuster season has ended, and the fall season hasn't started yet, which might affect the film's box office performance. (Strength: 2)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. Strong marketing campaign: The marketing campaign for 'Barbie' has been extensive and well-promoted, which could lead to high box office numbers. (Strength: 5)
2. Star power: The film features a star-studded cast, including Margot Robbie, which could attract a large audience. (Strength: 5)
3. Cultural significance: 'Barbie' has become a cultural phenomenon, generating significant buzz and interest among audiences. (Strength: 4)
4. Positive word-of-mouth: If the film has received positive reviews, it could lead to strong word-of-mouth, driving more people to see the movie. (Strength: 3)
5. Established brand recognition: The 'Barbie' brand is well-known and beloved by many, which could lead to a strong box office performance. (Strength: 4)

Aggregated considerations: Considering the strong marketing campaign, star power, cultural significance, and established brand recognition, the reasons for a positive outcome seem to outweigh the reasons for a negative outcome. However, the competition from other movies and potential declining interest in the film could still impact the box office performance.

Initial probability: 62

Evaluation: The initial probability seems relatively confident, but considering the base rate of box office performances, it might be excessively confident. The base rate of films grossing over $16 million in a single weekend is relatively high, so a more conservative approach might be warranted.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Changpeng Zhao (CZ) remain the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Binance from November 21, 2023, through December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This question will resolve to "Yes" if CZ is confirmed to be the CEO of Binance throughout this specified timeframe. The resolution will be based on official information from Binance and/or CZ, with a consensus of credible reporting sources also considered. An announcement that CZ will no longer be CEO on or before December 31, 2023, will not be sufficient to resolve this market; only confirmation of CZ's departure from the CEO position within the specified timeframe will result in a "No" resolution.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):

- CZ's personal life and health issues might lead to his departure (Strength: 20%): CZ has been known for his demanding work schedule and high stress levels, which could take a toll on his health. If he were to experience a significant health issue, it might force him to step down as CEO.
- Regulatory pressures and potential lawsuits might lead to his departure (Strength: 30%): Binance has faced regulatory challenges and potential lawsuits in various jurisdictions. If the pressure becomes too great, CZ might decide to step down to avoid further controversy.
- CZ's personal ambitions and interests might lead to his departure (Strength: 15%): CZ has expressed his desire to focus on other projects, such as the development of the Binance Smart Chain and his involvement in the Web3 ecosystem. If these projects gain significant traction, he might choose to devote more time to them, leading to a transition in leadership.
- Binance's leadership structure might be reorganized, leading to CZ's departure (Strength: 35%): As Binance continues to grow and expand, it's possible that the company might reorganize its leadership structure, potentially replacing CZ with a more experienced executive or a team of leaders.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):

- CZ's commitment to Binance and his leadership style (Strength: 40%): CZ has consistently demonstrated his dedication to Binance and has shown a strong leadership style that has contributed to the company's success. It's likely that he will continue to lead the company through 2023.
- Binance's growth and success might reinforce CZ's position (Strength: 30%): As Binance continues to grow and expand, it's possible that CZ's leadership will be seen as instrumental in the company's success, making it less likely that he will be replaced.
- CZ's vision for Binance's future aligns with his role as CEO (Strength: 30%): CZ has a clear vision for Binance's future, and it's likely that he will continue to lead the company as it executes on this vision.

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, it seems that the likelihood of CZ remaining CEO of Binance through 2023 is higher than the likelihood of him departing. However, there are still some potential risks and uncertainties that could lead to his departure.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of CZ remaining CEO of Binance through 2023 as 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability and additional considerations:

Upon reviewing my initial probability, I realize that it might be too confident. The reasons for CZ's potential departure are significant, and it's possible that one or more of these factors could come to fruition. Additionally, the base rate of CEO turnover is relatively high, which should temper my initial probability.

7. Final prediction:

Considering the potential risks and uncertainties, I would revise my initial probability to *0.55*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Kylian Mbappé sign a transfer contract with Real Madrid during the 2023 summer transfer window, which closes on September 1, 2023, as his current contract with Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) is set to expire? This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official announcement is made confirming Mbappé's transfer to Real Madrid. It will resolve to "No" if Mbappé signs a contract extension with PSG or joins another club during the transfer window. If a club announces Mbappé's signing but later retracts the announcement, the market will resolve based on the initial announcement. The resolution source will be official, credible announcements from either PSG or the signing club.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 8/10**: Mbappé has consistently expressed his love for PSG and the city of Paris, indicating a strong emotional connection that may make him less likely to leave.
- **Strength: 6/10**: Mbappé has been linked to several high-profile transfers in the past, but ultimately remained at PSG. This could suggest that he values stability and may prefer to stay with his current club.
- **Strength: 4/10**: Real Madrid's transfer window has been impacted by the club's financial struggles, which may limit their ability to meet Mbappé's transfer demands.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 9/10**: Real Madrid's pursuit of Mbappé has been ongoing for several years, and the club's interest in him remains strong. They may be willing to meet his transfer demands to secure his signature.
- **Strength: 7/10**: Mbappé's desire for a new challenge and the prospect of playing in La Liga could be a significant factor in his decision-making process.
- **Strength: 5/10**: The transfer market has become increasingly unpredictable, and Mbappé's decision may be influenced by various factors, including the performance of other clubs and the transfer negotiations.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that Mbappé's emotional connection to PSG and the potential financial constraints at Real Madrid could work against a transfer. However, the ongoing interest from Real Madrid and Mbappé's desire for a new challenge could still make a transfer possible.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Mbappé signing for Real Madrid at 40.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon further reflection, I realize that my initial probability may be too low. While there are valid reasons to doubt a transfer, the strength of Real Madrid's interest and Mbappé's desire for a new challenge should not be underestimated. Additionally, the base rate of high-profile transfers is relatively high, which could influence the outcome.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will the Openpen Edition floor price exceed 0.69 ETH on July 28, 2023, at 12:00 PM ET? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the lowest price of listings that have existed for at least 30 minutes on OpenSea, Blur, LooksRare, and other marketplaces listed on pro.opensea.io, excluding those with a "suspicious activity" marker, is greater than 0.69 ETH at the specified time. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". The floor price will be memorialized on the Polymarket market description after the resolution time passes.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No (with strength ratings):**

1. **Market volatility:** The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and prices can fluctuate rapidly. A sudden market downturn could cause the floor price to drop below 0.69 ETH. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Lack of liquidity:** If there are few buyers or sellers in the market, the floor price may not accurately reflect the true value of the Openpen Edition, leading to a price below 0.69 ETH. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Market manipulation:** The presence of suspicious activity or market manipulation could artificially inflate or deflate the floor price, potentially leading to a price below 0.69 ETH. (Strength: 4/10)
4. **Limited market activity:** If there is limited interest in the Openpen Edition, the floor price may not accurately reflect the market's true value, leading to a price below 0.69 ETH. (Strength: 3/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes (with strength ratings):**

1. **Increasing demand:** As more people become aware of the Openpen Edition, demand may increase, driving the floor price above 0.69 ETH. (Strength: 7/10)
2. **Investor confidence:** If investors are confident in the value of the Openpen Edition, they may be willing to pay a higher price, potentially exceeding 0.69 ETH. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Limited supply:** If the supply of Openpen Editions is limited, it could lead to a higher floor price as buyers compete for a scarce resource, potentially exceeding 0.69 ETH. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Market momentum:** If the market is trending upwards, the floor price may continue to rise, exceeding 0.69 ETH. (Strength: 4/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Considering the potential reasons for a "Yes" or "No" answer, I weigh the strengths of each argument. The "Yes" arguments have a stronger overall strength, with increasing demand, investor confidence, limited supply, and market momentum contributing to a potential price increase. However, the "No" arguments, such as market volatility, lack of liquidity, market manipulation, and limited market activity, also have some merit.

**Initial Probability:**

Given the considerations above, I estimate the probability of the answer being "Yes" as 60%.

**Evaluation of Initial Probability:**

Upon further reflection, I realize that my initial probability may be too high. The "No" arguments, although not as strong as the "Yes" arguments, still have some merit. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of the floor price exceeding 0.69 ETH without any specific knowledge of the market) is unknown. To be more conservative, I should adjust my probability downward.

**Final Prediction:**

*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will 'The Marvels' (2023) gross more than $55 million domestically on its 3-day opening weekend, according to the final box office numbers from Box Office Mojo, which may or may not include data from previews, and considering the movie's performance in the United States and Canada, or other countries that are typically included in the domestic box office total? If no final data is available by November 20, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, a credible alternative resolution source will be used.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) has experienced a decline in box office performance in recent years, with some movies underperforming expectations. (Strength: 4)
- The release of 'The Marvels' is close to the holiday season, which may lead to a decrease in ticket sales due to increased competition from other movies and events. (Strength: 3)
- The movie's marketing campaign may not have been as effective as previous Marvel movies, potentially affecting its opening weekend box office performance. (Strength: 2)
- The global box office environment has been affected by various factors, including economic uncertainty and changes in consumer behavior, which might impact the movie's opening weekend performance. (Strength: 2)
- The movie's genre (superhero) might be over-saturated, leading to decreased interest and lower box office numbers. (Strength: 1)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The Marvel Cinematic Universe has a large and dedicated fan base, which often generates significant box office revenue for its movies. (Strength: 5)
- The movie's star-studded cast, including Brie Larson, Iman Vellani, and Teyonah Parris, may attract a wide audience and contribute to its box office success. (Strength: 4)
- The movie's marketing campaign has been extensive, with a strong focus on promoting the film's action-packed sequences and the return of fan-favorite characters. (Strength: 4)
- The movie's opening weekend is during a relatively slow period for new releases, which might give it an advantage in terms of audience attention. (Strength: 3)
- The movie's trailers and promotional materials have received positive reactions from fans and critics, indicating a strong level of anticipation and excitement. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both sides, I believe that the factors in favor of a successful opening weekend outweigh those against it. The Marvel Cinematic Universe's dedicated fan base, the movie's marketing campaign, and the positive reactions to the trailers and promotional materials suggest that 'The Marvels' has the potential to perform well at the box office.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of 'The Marvels' grossing more than $55 million domestically on its 3-day opening weekend to be around 80%.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
My initial probability seems reasonably confident, but I should consider the base rate of movies exceeding this box office threshold. According to Box Office Mojo, it's not uncommon for movies to gross over $55 million on their opening weekend, especially for big-budget franchises like the MCU. However, it's also worth noting that there are many factors that can affect box office performance, and it's difficult to predict with certainty.

7. Final prediction:
*0.78*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.78
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the 2023 NBA Finals Series between the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat last exactly 6 games, given that the series could potentially be shorter or longer based on the NBA's best-of-seven format and the teams' performance? The market will resolve to "Yes" if the series indeed lasts 6 games. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The market may immediately resolve to "No" if, according to the NBA's rules, it becomes impossible for the series to last exactly 6 games.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1 to 10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

* The team that wins the series in 5 games would win the championship, making a 6-game series impossible. (Strength: 9)
* The team that wins the series in 4 games would win the championship, making a 6-game series impossible. (Strength: 9)
* The team that wins the series in 7 games would win the championship, making a 6-game series impossible. (Strength: 8)
* One of the teams might be significantly more dominant, potentially sweeping the series in 4 games. (Strength: 4)
* The teams might experience an uneven performance throughout the series, leading to a shorter or longer series. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1 to 10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

* The series could go back and forth, with each team winning one or two games, making a 6-game series plausible. (Strength: 8)
* The teams might have a closely matched performance, with neither team able to gain a significant advantage. (Strength: 7)
* The series could be a closely contested one, with each game being closely won or lost. (Strength: 6)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the NBA's best-of-seven format and the teams' performance, there are several factors that could influence the length of the series. The strength of the reasons for a 6-game series (8 and 7) seems to be higher than the reasons against it (4 and 3). However, the possibility of one team sweeping the series in 4 games or winning in 5 or 7 games is a significant factor. Given these considerations, the possibility of a 6-game series seems plausible but not extremely likely.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of the series lasting exactly 6 games to be around 20%. This is a relatively low probability due to the possibility of a sweep or a 5- or 7-game series.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
Upon further reflection, I realize that my initial probability might be too low. The NBA Finals are often closely contested, and a 6-game series is not uncommon. Additionally, the teams' performance and the series' momentum could lead to a closely matched series. Considering these factors, I might increase my initial probability. However, I should also consider the base rate of the event, which is not explicitly provided. Assuming that a 6-game series is not extremely common, I might adjust my probability accordingly.

7. Final prediction:
*0.30*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.3
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will Hamas release any hostages between October 31 and November 17, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official information from Hamas, Israel, the United States, and/or the relevant nations to whom any potential released hostages belong, and/or a consensus of credible reporting?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating out of 5):
    * Hamas' history of holding hostages: Hamas has a history of using hostages as leverage in negotiations, which might suggest they are unlikely to release them without achieving significant concessions. (Strength: 4)
    * Ongoing conflict: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is ongoing, and releasing hostages might be seen as a sign of weakness by Hamas, potentially escalating the situation. (Strength: 3)
    * Hamas' potential goals: Hamas might be seeking to use hostages as bargaining chips to achieve more significant concessions from Israel or other parties, which could delay or prevent their release. (Strength: 4)
    * Difficulty in negotiations: The complexities of negotiations between Hamas and other parties might lead to a stalemate, making it challenging for hostages to be released. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating out of 5):
    * International pressure: The international community, including the United States, might exert pressure on Hamas to release hostages, which could lead to their release. (Strength: 3)
    * Humanitarian concerns: The prolonged captivity of hostages might lead to growing public pressure and humanitarian concerns, prompting Hamas to release them. (Strength: 2)
    * Potential for a negotiated deal: Hamas and other parties might reach a negotiated agreement, leading to the release of hostages. (Strength: 4)
    * Humanitarian efforts: Organizations and individuals working to secure the release of hostages might be successful, leading to the release of some or all hostages. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the reasons for both "yes" and "no," it appears that Hamas' history of holding hostages and their potential goals might make it less likely for them to release hostages without significant concessions. However, international pressure, humanitarian concerns, and the potential for a negotiated deal could also contribute to their release. A balanced view would take into account the complexities of the situation and the various factors at play.

5. Initial probability: 40%

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations: The initial probability of 40% might be considered relatively cautious, given the complexities of the situation. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of hostage releases in similar situations, which might be relatively low. This could lead to a more conservative estimate. Additionally, the time frame of 17 days might be relatively short for a significant development like a hostage release, which could also contribute to a lower probability.

7. Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Lil Uzi Vert's new album 'The Pink Tape' sell over 175,000 units in its first week, according to the finalized version of the 'HITS TOP 50' list on hitsdailydouble.com, which tracks album sales and streaming data, specifically for the week ending July 6, 2023? This prediction will be based on the figure in the column titled "ALBUMS" on the specified list. If the list is unavailable or does not list 'The Pink Tape', another credible resolution source may be chosen.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Lil Uzi Vert's previous album sales have been inconsistent (Strength: 3). 
- The album may not receive the same level of promotion as previous releases (Strength: 2).
- The music industry has experienced fluctuations in album sales in recent years (Strength: 4).
- Lil Uzi Vert's fanbase may not be as large or dedicated as other artists (Strength: 2).
- The album may not have a clear single or standout track (Strength: 1).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Lil Uzi Vert has a dedicated fanbase and a strong reputation in the hip-hop industry (Strength: 5).
- The album may receive significant promotion through social media and streaming platforms (Strength: 4).
- Lil Uzi Vert has a history of successful releases and collaborations (Strength: 5).
- The album may benefit from the current popularity of hip-hop music (Strength: 4).
- Lil Uzi Vert's fanbase may be eager to support his new release (Strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Taking into account the reasons for both a yes and no answer, I consider the following factors:
- Lil Uzi Vert's dedicated fanbase and reputation in the industry (Strength: 5)
- The album's potential promotion through social media and streaming platforms (Strength: 4)
- The current popularity of hip-hop music (Strength: 4)
- Lil Uzi Vert's history of successful releases and collaborations (Strength: 5)
- The album's potential to benefit from Lil Uzi Vert's fanbase eagerness to support his new release (Strength: 3)
- The inconsistent album sales of Lil Uzi Vert's previous releases (Strength: 3)
- The fluctuations in the music industry (Strength: 4)
- The album's potential to not have a clear single or standout track (Strength: 1)
- Lil Uzi Vert's fanbase size and dedication (Strength: 2)

Considering these factors, I believe the album's potential to sell over 175,000 units in its first week is moderate.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 60 seems reasonable given the mixed factors at play. However, I should consider the base rate of the event, which is the typical sales performance of hip-hop albums. Hip-hop albums often perform well in their first week, but the sales figures can vary greatly. I should also consider that the question is asking for a specific number (175,000 units), which may be a relatively high target. This could make the event less likely.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will 'Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom' (2023) gross more than $35 million on its 4-day opening weekend (December 22-25) in the domestic box office, as reported by Box Office Mojo? This prediction will be based on the final domestic weekend box office data for the 4-day weekend. If the final data is not available by January 2, 2024, an alternative credible source will be used for resolution. The domestic weekend box office figure may include the domestic box office earnings from the USA and/or Canada, and possibly other countries. The resolution will be based solely on the numerical value of the domestic weekend box office earnings.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- Reason 1: Competition from other holiday releases: The 4-day weekend coincides with the holiday season, and other movies might attract a significant share of the audience, potentially affecting Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom's box office performance. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: Sequel fatigue: As the fourth installment in the DC Extended Universe, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom might suffer from sequel fatigue, which could lead to lower box office earnings. (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 3: Mixed reviews or negative word-of-mouth: If the movie receives mixed or negative reviews, it might deter potential viewers, impacting its box office performance. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- Reason 1: Established franchise: The DC Extended Universe has a dedicated fan base, and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom might benefit from this existing audience. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: Holiday season: The 4-day weekend is a popular time for movie releases, and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom might capitalize on the increased audience interest during the holiday season. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: Positive marketing and promotion: Effective marketing campaigns can generate buzz and attract viewers, which could lead to a strong opening weekend for Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I weigh the strength of each point. The established franchise and holiday season are strong factors in favor of a positive outcome, while competition from other releases, sequel fatigue, and mixed reviews are potential drawbacks. I consider the strengths and weaknesses, and my initial assessment is that the movie has a decent chance of exceeding the $35 million mark.

5. Initial probability:
Based on my considerations, I predict that Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom will gross over $35 million on its 4-day opening weekend with a probability of 62%.

6. Evaluation of confidence:
My initial probability might be slightly too confident, given the uncertainty surrounding the movie's performance. However, I've considered various factors, including the established franchise, holiday season, and potential drawbacks. To account for this uncertainty, I might adjust my confidence level downward.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the uncertainty and potential factors that could affect the outcome, I revise my initial probability to *0.55*. This reflects a moderate confidence level, acknowledging that the outcome is uncertain but leaning slightly towards a positive result.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Chelsea F.C. win at least one more Premier League game between September 18, 2023, and December 31, 2023? This question is contingent upon the official Premier League results, and it will resolve to "Yes" if Chelsea F.C. records a win in any of their remaining matches within the specified timeframe. If no such win is recorded, the market will resolve to "No."

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strong to weak):
- Chelsea F.C.'s current form and performance (Strength: 7/10): Chelsea's performance can be inconsistent, and their recent form might not be strong enough to secure a win in every match.
- Injuries and player unavailability (Strength: 6/10): Key players being injured or unavailable due to various reasons might affect the team's performance and chances of winning.
- Tough fixtures and schedule (Strength: 5/10): Chelsea might face challenging opponents and a demanding schedule, which could impact their ability to secure wins.
- Managerial decisions and team dynamics (Strength: 4/10): The team's performance can be influenced by the manager's tactics and player dynamics, which might not always be in their favor.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strong to weak):
- Chelsea F.C.'s history and past performance (Strength: 8/10): As a top-tier team, Chelsea has a history of performing well in the Premier League and might be expected to win some games.
- Home advantage (Strength: 6/10): Playing at home can give Chelsea an edge, and they might be more likely to win games at Stamford Bridge.
- Squad depth and quality (Strength: 5/10): Chelsea has a relatively strong squad with talented players, which could help them secure wins.
- Momentum and confidence (Strength: 4/10): A win in their previous game or a positive performance can give the team momentum and confidence, increasing their chances of winning in the following games.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that Chelsea F.C.'s past performance and home advantage are significant factors in their favor. However, their current form, injuries, and challenging fixtures might hinder their chances of winning every game. The team's managerial decisions and player dynamics also play a role, but it's harder to assess their impact. Overall, the factors pointing towards a "Yes" seem to outweigh those pointing towards a "No," but the margin is relatively small.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially predict a 55% chance of Chelsea F.C. winning at least one more Premier League game between September 18, 2023, and December 31, 2023.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident. The factors pointing towards a "No" are not negligible, and Chelsea's performance can be unpredictable. Additionally, the base rate of the event is relatively high, as it's likely that Chelsea will win at least one game in the specified timeframe. Considering this, the initial probability might be adjusted downward.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian businessman and leader of the Wagner Group, make a verified, authentic public or digital appearance between August 23, 1:00 PM ET, and August 25, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This appearance must be confirmed by credible reporting and cannot be AI-generated. The resolution source for this question will be a consensus of credible news outlets. 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- Prigozhin is currently in hiding or under low profile, and his team might not want to risk exposing his location or status. (Strength: 4)
- The Wagner Group is involved in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and Prigozhin's appearance might be seen as a provocation or a distraction from the military operations. (Strength: 3)
- Prigozhin might be in negotiations or meetings with other parties, and his appearance would compromise his position or the negotiations. (Strength: 2)
- The question's resolution criteria rely on credible reporting, but there might be a delay in reporting or verification, leading to a "no" resolution. (Strength: 1)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- Prigozhin has a history of making public statements and appearances, and he might want to address the ongoing situation in Ukraine or other issues. (Strength: 5)
- The Wagner Group is a significant player in the conflict, and Prigozhin's appearance could be a strategic move to influence the situation or demonstrate his group's strength. (Strength: 4)
- Prigozhin might use his appearance to send a message to his followers, the Russian government, or the international community. (Strength: 3)
- There is a possibility that Prigozhin's team is planning a public appearance or statement, and it will happen within the given timeframe. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the most significant factor is Prigozhin's history of making public statements and appearances. However, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the potential risks associated with his appearance might lead to a "no" resolution. The reliance on credible reporting for resolution also introduces uncertainty.

5. Initial probability: 40
Given the considerations above, I believe there is a 40% chance that Yevgeny Prigozhin will make a verified, authentic public or digital appearance between August 23, 1:00 PM ET, and August 25, 2023, 11:59 PM ET.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be too low considering Prigozhin's history of public appearances. However, the ongoing conflict and the potential risks associated with his appearance introduce uncertainty, making a 40% probability a cautious estimate. The base rate of the event is unknown, but it's likely that Prigozhin has made public appearances in the past, which could influence the outcome.

7. Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Cruise successfully relaunch its driverless taxi operations in San Francisco by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, following the California DMV's suspension of its driverless taxi service in San Francisco on October 24, 2023, due to safety concerns? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cruise resumes its driverless operations in San Francisco, and does not include mere tests and demonstrations. The resolution source will be information from Cruise, in addition to credible media reporting.

Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

1. **Regulatory hurdles**: The California DMV has already suspended Cruise's driverless taxi service, indicating that regulatory issues are a significant concern. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Safety concerns**: The DMV's suspension was due to safety concerns, which Cruise will need to address before resuming operations. (Strength: 7.5/10)
3. **Technical issues**: Cruise may need to overcome technical issues that led to the suspension, which could be a significant challenge. (Strength: 6/10)
4. **Public backlash**: The public may be hesitant to accept driverless taxis, which could lead to further regulatory hurdles or public pressure. (Strength: 5/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

1. **Cruise's resources**: Cruise is a well-funded company with significant resources to invest in addressing regulatory and technical issues. (Strength: 8.5/10)
2. **Experience and learning**: Cruise has experience operating in San Francisco and has likely learned from previous incidents, which could help it improve its operations. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Industry pressure**: Other companies, such as Waymo, are already operating in San Francisco, which could put pressure on Cruise to resume operations. (Strength: 6.5/10)
4. **Regulatory cooperation**: The California DMV may work with Cruise to address safety concerns and facilitate a relaunch. (Strength: 6/10)

Aggregated considerations:

Based on the reasons above, the balance of evidence suggests that the answer is more likely to be "no" due to regulatory and safety concerns. However, Cruise's resources and experience could help mitigate these risks.

Initial probability: 25

Evaluation of confidence:

The initial probability of 25 seems relatively low, considering the potential for Cruise to overcome regulatory and safety concerns with its resources and experience. However, the base rate of successful relaunches of suspended services is low, and the DMV's suspension indicates a significant level of concern. This suggests that a more conservative estimate may be warranted.

Final prediction: *0.20*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.2
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will 'Saw X' (2023) gross more than $21,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend in the domestic box office, as per the final numbers from Box Office Mojo, or another credible source if available by October 9, 2023? The domestic box office is defined as the box office revenue from the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release, which may include revenue from the United States, Canada, and possibly other countries. The market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Saw X' (2023) meets or exceeds this threshold, and to "No" otherwise.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The 'Saw' franchise has been declining in box office performance over the years (Strength: 4). The previous films in the series have seen a decrease in opening weekend box office revenue, which might indicate a similar trend for 'Saw X'.
- The horror genre has faced increased competition in recent years, with many other popular horror movies being released (Strength: 3). This might make it harder for 'Saw X' to stand out and attract a large audience.
- The 'Saw' franchise has a dedicated fan base, but its appeal might be limited to a specific demographic (Strength: 2). This could result in a smaller overall audience and lower box office revenue.
- The movie's marketing campaign might not have been effective in generating buzz and attracting new viewers (Strength: 2). If the marketing efforts were lacking, it could impact the film's box office performance.
- The movie's release date might be too close to other notable releases, potentially drawing attention and audiences away from 'Saw X' (Strength: 1). However, this is not a strong reason as the release date is not specified.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The 'Saw' franchise has a strong brand recognition and a loyal fan base (Strength: 5). This could lead to a strong opening weekend, even if the film's marketing campaign was not particularly effective.
- The horror genre has been consistently popular in recent years, with many successful releases (Strength: 4). This trend might continue with 'Saw X', leading to a strong opening weekend.
- The movie's R-rating could attract a younger audience, which might be eager to see a new horror film (Strength: 3). This demographic is often drawn to R-rated movies and might contribute to a strong box office performance.
- The 'Saw' franchise has a history of performing well in the box office, with some films even breaking even or turning a profit (Strength: 3). This suggests that the franchise has a certain level of box office appeal.
- The movie's release might coincide with a lull in other notable releases, giving it a chance to attract a larger audience (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and a "no" answer, I believe that the 'Saw' franchise's brand recognition and loyal fan base, combined with the horror genre's consistent popularity, are strong factors in favor of a successful opening weekend. However, the franchise's declining box office performance and increased competition from other horror movies are also significant concerns.

5. Initial probability:

Based on my aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of 'Saw X' grossing more than $21,000,000 on its opening weekend to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

My initial probability might be slightly too confident, given the uncertainty surrounding the movie's marketing campaign and the potential impact of other releases. However, I believe that the 'Saw' franchise's brand recognition and the horror genre's popularity are strong enough to push the box office performance above the $21,000,000 threshold.

7. Final prediction:

*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**
Will Lex Fridman, host of the Lex Fridman Podcast, conduct a public interview with Vladimir Putin, the current President of Russia, and make it available on his regular podcast platforms or verified social media accounts by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2023?

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest)**

1. **Historical tension between Russia and the West**: The current geopolitical climate between Russia and Western countries, including the United States, may make it difficult for Putin to agree to an interview with a prominent figure like Lex Fridman, who is associated with Western media and institutions. (Strength: 4)
2. **Putin's control over information**: As the President of Russia, Putin has a significant amount of control over the media landscape within Russia. He might not want to grant an interview that could be perceived as challenging his views or policies, especially if it's with a host who is critical of Russia. (Strength: 4)
3. **Lex Fridman's podcast style**: Lex Fridman's podcast is known for its in-depth and sometimes critical discussions with guests. Putin might not want to engage in an interview that could lead to scrutiny or criticism of his actions or policies. (Strength: 3)
4. **Logistical challenges**: The logistics of arranging an interview between a high-profile figure like Putin and a host like Lex Fridman could be complex, especially considering the current tensions between Russia and the West. (Strength: 2)
5. **Putin's media appearances**: Putin has been known to grant interviews to select media outlets, but he often chooses outlets that align with his views or are sympathetic to Russia. Lex Fridman's podcast might not fit into this category. (Strength: 2)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest)**

1. **Lex Fridman's reputation as a neutral interviewer**: Lex Fridman is known for his ability to engage in respectful and in-depth conversations with guests from diverse backgrounds, including those with differing views. This could make him an attractive choice for an interview with Putin. (Strength: 4)
2. **Putin's desire for international engagement**: Despite the tensions between Russia and the West, Putin has shown a willingness to engage with international leaders and media outlets in the past. An interview with Lex Fridman could be seen as a way to promote Russia's perspective and interests. (Strength: 4)
3. **Lex Fridman's influence and audience**: Lex Fridman's podcast has a significant following, and an interview with Putin could help increase his visibility and influence in the Western media landscape. (Strength: 3)
4. **Potential for a controlled narrative**: Putin might see an interview with Lex Fridman as an opportunity to shape the narrative and present his views to a Western audience in a more controlled environment. (Strength: 3)
5. **Previous high-profile interviews**: Putin has granted interviews to prominent media outlets and figures in the past, including Western journalists and politicians. This could suggest that he is open to engaging with Western media. (Strength: 2)

**Aggregated Considerations**

Considering the reasons for and against, I believe that the likelihood of Lex Fridman interviewing Vladimir Putin by December 31, 2023, is relatively low. The historical tensions between Russia and the West, Putin's control over information, and the potential for logistical challenges all contribute to this assessment. However, the possibility of a controlled narrative, Lex Fridman's reputation as a neutral interviewer, and Putin's past willingness to engage with international media outlets suggest that there is still a chance for the interview to happen.

**Initial Probability: 20**

**Evaluation of Confidence**

My initial probability of 20% seems relatively low, but considering the current geopolitical climate and Putin's control over information, it's a cautious assessment. However, I might be underestimating the potential for a controlled narrative or Lex Fridman's ability to persuade Putin to participate in an interview.

**Final Prediction: *0.22*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.22
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the KyberSwap hacker return at least 50% of the exploited funds ($27.35 million or more) to KyberSwap or relevant parties by December 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This question will be resolved based on official announcements by KyberSwap, transactions from the hacker returning funds to relevant parties, or the conversion value of the returned funds meeting or exceeding $27.35 million. For the purposes of this question, the funds returned do not necessarily need to be in the same form or cryptocurrency as the initial exploitation, as long as their conversion to USD is $27.35 million or more. If the funds are returned in a different manner and KyberSwap confirms the return, it will also be considered a resolution of the question.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-5, with 5 being the strongest reason):

- The hacker might not see the return as a priority or might be unwilling to return the funds due to the potential consequences of getting caught (Reason strength: 4)
- The hacker might be planning to launder or hide the funds, making it difficult for them to return the majority of the stolen funds (Reason strength: 4)
- Returning 50% of the funds might not be in the hacker's best interest, as it would still leave them with a significant amount of money and potentially expose them to law enforcement (Reason strength: 3)
- The hacker might be using the stolen funds for malicious purposes, such as further attacks or other illicit activities, making it less likely for them to return the funds (Reason strength: 3)
- The hacker might be unable to return the funds due to unforeseen circumstances, such as the funds being lost or stolen themselves (Reason strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-5, with 5 being the strongest reason):

- The hacker might be trying to minimize their exposure and avoid law enforcement by returning a portion of the stolen funds (Reason strength: 4)
- Returning 50% of the funds might be a way for the hacker to negotiate a reduced sentence or plea deal with authorities (Reason strength: 4)
- The hacker might be motivated to return the funds due to a change of heart or a desire to make amends (Reason strength: 3)
- KyberSwap might be working with the hacker or relevant authorities to facilitate the return of the funds, increasing the likelihood of a successful return (Reason strength: 3)
- The hacker might be using the stolen funds for a legitimate purpose, such as investing or donating, and returning the majority of the funds as a way to clean their reputation (Reason strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the likelihood of the hacker returning 50% of the funds is relatively low, but not impossible. The hacker's motivations and actions are difficult to predict, and there are various factors that could influence their decision. However, the reasons for returning the funds seem to be more speculative, while the reasons for not returning the funds seem more concrete.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the hacker returning 50% of the exploited funds by December 15, 2023, as 20.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon reevaluation, I consider the initial probability of 20 to be relatively low, given the uncertainty surrounding the hacker's motivations and actions. However, it is also not excessively confident, as there are valid reasons to doubt the hacker's willingness to return the funds. Considering the base rate of such events, it's essential to note that hackers rarely return stolen funds voluntarily. This should be taken into account when evaluating the likelihood of the event.

7. Final prediction:
*0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the US government unseal documents containing the names of Jeffrey Epstein's associates by January 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, as per the order issued by Federal Judge Loretta Preska on December 19, 2023? This market will be resolved based on official information from the US government, with a consensus of credible reporting serving as a secondary source. The resolution criteria for this question are not applicable or available.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength ratings):

* The US government might be slow in processing and releasing the documents due to the complexity and sensitivity of the case (strength: 6/10).
* There could be appeals or legal challenges to the order to unseal the documents, potentially delaying their release (strength: 7/10).
* The government might be hesitant to release the documents due to potential backlash or controversy surrounding the associates' names (strength: 5/10).
* The government might prioritize other tasks or cases over unsealing the documents (strength: 4/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength ratings):

* Federal Judge Loretta Preska has already issued an order to unseal the documents, indicating a clear intention to release them (strength: 9/10).
* The order to unseal the documents was made public, which suggests a level of transparency and accountability (strength: 8/10).
* The US government has a responsibility to uphold the law and follow court orders, which could lead to the timely release of the documents (strength: 8/10).
* The documents are likely to be released as part of a larger effort to increase transparency and accountability in the Epstein case (strength: 7/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons provided, it seems that the likelihood of the documents being unsealed by January 31, 2024, is high, but there are some potential obstacles that could delay the process. The strength of the reasons favoring a "yes" answer outweighs those favoring a "no" answer, but there is still a risk of delays or challenges.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the initial probability of the documents being unsealed by January 31, 2024, to be around 70.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident given the potential for delays or challenges. It's also worth noting that the base rate of court orders being enforced in a timely manner is generally high, but not 100%. The initial probability should be adjusted to reflect this.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: 

Will the 2023 film 'Five Nights at Freddy's' gross more than $80,000,000 in its 3-day opening weekend (October 27-29) domestically, according to the final numbers from Box Office Mojo? The domestic weekend total includes the 3-day weekend, which typically includes Thursday's previews. If there is no final data available by November 6, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. 

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

1. The 'Five Nights at Freddy's' franchise has not had a major film adaptation before, which might indicate a risk for the movie's performance. (Strength: 4)
2. Horror movies often have a niche audience, and their opening weekends can be unpredictable. (Strength: 4)
3. The movie might not appeal to a broad audience, potentially limiting its box office potential. (Strength: 3)
4. The film's marketing campaign might not be strong enough to generate sufficient buzz and attract viewers. (Strength: 3)
5. The movie's release date might coincide with other popular releases, potentially drawing attention and box office revenue away from 'Five Nights at Freddy's'. (Strength: 2)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

1. The 'Five Nights at Freddy's' franchise has a dedicated fan base, which could translate to a strong opening weekend. (Strength: 5)
2. Horror movies can have a strong opening weekend if marketed correctly, and 'Five Nights at Freddy's' has a unique and terrifying premise. (Strength: 4)
3. The movie's release date is in October, a popular month for horror movie releases. (Strength: 4)
4. The film's trailer and marketing campaign have generated significant buzz and excitement among fans and potential viewers. (Strength: 3)
5. The movie's potential for word-of-mouth and positive reviews could contribute to a strong opening weekend. (Strength: 3)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both sides, I believe the likelihood of 'Five Nights at Freddy's' grossing over $80,000,000 in its opening weekend is moderate to high. The franchise's dedicated fan base, unique premise, and October release date are strong factors in its favor. However, the lack of a major film adaptation, niche audience, and potential competition from other releases are concerns that could impact its box office performance.

Initial probability: 65

Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 65 seems reasonable, as it reflects the moderate to high likelihood of 'Five Nights at Freddy's' grossing over $80,000,000 in its opening weekend. However, I may be underestimating the movie's potential, as the franchise's dedicated fan base and unique premise could lead to a stronger opening weekend.

Final prediction: *0.675*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.675
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will US President Joe Biden use the word "alien" or "aliens" in any public, recorded video or audio statement between July 27 and August 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, in any context, such as discussing immigration, space exploration, or extraterrestrial life, but not including written statements or private conversations?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strengths):
   - Biden might be cautious in his public statements, avoiding sensitive or potentially divisive topics, including references to extraterrestrial life. (Strength: 6/10)
   - The topic of aliens or extraterrestrial life is not a priority for the Biden administration, and he might not see the need to address it publicly. (Strength: 5/10)
   - The US government has not made any significant announcements or discoveries related to aliens or extraterrestrial life, which might reduce the likelihood of Biden mentioning it. (Strength: 4/10)
   - Biden's public statements are often scripted and reviewed by multiple people, which might limit his ability to make spontaneous or unexpected comments about aliens. (Strength: 7/10)
   - The market is focused on a relatively short time frame (August 31), and it's possible that Biden might not have a relevant public statement scheduled during this period. (Strength: 8/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strengths):
   - Biden has made unconventional comments and statements in the past, which might suggest he is open to discussing unexpected topics like aliens. (Strength: 5/10)
   - The Biden administration has taken a more open approach to discussing space exploration and the possibility of extraterrestrial life, which might increase the likelihood of him mentioning aliens. (Strength: 6/10)
   - There have been recent developments in the field of astrobiology and the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI), which might prompt Biden to make a statement about aliens. (Strength: 4/10)
   - Biden has been known to use his public statements to address a wide range of topics, including those that might be considered unconventional or unexpected. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Taking into account the reasons for both "yes" and "no," I consider the following:
- The strength of the reasons for "no" are generally higher than those for "yes," but not overwhelmingly so.
- The possibility of Biden making an unexpected comment about aliens cannot be ruled out, given his past behavior.
- The short time frame of the market (August 31) increases the likelihood that Biden might not have a relevant public statement scheduled.
- The Biden administration's approach to space exploration and the possibility of extraterrestrial life might increase the likelihood of him mentioning aliens.

5. Initial probability:
Based on these considerations, I estimate the initial probability of Biden mentioning aliens by August 31 to be 22.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 22% might be considered relatively low, given the possibility of Biden making an unexpected comment about aliens. However, the reasons for "no" are generally stronger, and the short time frame of the market increases the uncertainty. The base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of Biden mentioning aliens in any public statement) is likely low, but difficult to estimate.

7. Final prediction:
*0.22*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.22
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will 'The Equalizer 3' (2023) gross more than $35,000,000 on its 4-day opening weekend, which includes the Labor Day holiday, in the domestic market (USA and possibly Canada or other territories)? This market will be resolved using the final box office numbers from Box Office Mojo for the 4-day weekend or the individual 4-day daily box office numbers. If the final data is not available by September 10th, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source will be used for resolution. The question will be answered based on the actual numbers for the first Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday of the film's release.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Equalizer 2 (2023) had a lower opening weekend compared to the first film, which might indicate a decline in the series' box office performance (Strength: 4).
- The Labor Day weekend is considered a relatively weak holiday weekend for box office performance, as many people may be on vacation or have other plans (Strength: 3).
- The film might not have a strong marketing campaign or sufficient buzz to attract a large audience (Strength: 2).
- The film might be facing competition from other new releases or established franchises (Strength: 2).
- The domestic box office has been declining in recent years, which could impact the overall box office performance (Strength: 3).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Equalizer franchise has a dedicated fan base and a strong brand recognition, which could lead to a successful opening weekend (Strength: 5).
- The film's marketing campaign might be strong, generating excitement and buzz among fans and potential viewers (Strength: 4).
- The Labor Day weekend might not be as weak as expected, with some people using the long weekend to catch up on movies (Strength: 2).
- The film's opening weekend might be boosted by positive word-of-mouth and early reviews (Strength: 3).
- The domestic box office has seen successful openings for other action and thriller films in recent years (Strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the most significant factors influencing the outcome are the performance of the previous film in the franchise, the strength of the marketing campaign, and the potential for positive word-of-mouth. The franchise's dedicated fan base and brand recognition are also crucial. However, the decline in domestic box office performance and potential competition from other releases are also factors to consider.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of 'The Equalizer 3' grossing over $35,000,000 on its 4-day opening weekend to be around 70%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, considering the strengths and weaknesses of the film and the current box office trends. However, it might be slightly overconfident, as the domestic box office has been unpredictable in recent years. Additionally, the base rate of films grossing over $35,000,000 on their opening weekend is relatively low, which should temper the initial probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will 'The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' (2023) gross more than $40,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend in the domestic market, considering the typical box office trends, marketing efforts, competition, and other relevant factors? This market will resolve based on the actual domestic weekend box office numbers from Box Office Mojo for the specified weekend (November 17 - November 19). If the final data is not available by November 27, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source will be used for resolution. The market will resolve to "Yes" if the actual domestic weekend gross is more than $40,000,000, and to "No" otherwise.

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. The Hunger Games franchise has seen a decline in box office performance with each subsequent installment (Strength: 4). The first film grossed $694.5 million, the second grossed $865.3 million, and the third grossed $755.4 million. The prequel might not be able to match the performance of the previous films.
2. The prequel's storyline is set 64 years before the original Hunger Games, which might make it harder for audiences to connect with the new characters and storyline (Strength: 3). This could lead to a lower opening weekend gross.
3. The marketing campaign for the prequel might not be as strong as previous films in the franchise, potentially affecting its box office performance (Strength: 2).
4. The competition from other movies and events during the same time period could impact the prequel's box office performance (Strength: 4).
5. The global box office environment has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors, which could lead to a lower opening weekend gross (Strength: 5).

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. The Hunger Games franchise has a dedicated fan base, and the prequel might attract a significant number of fans eager to see the new storyline (Strength: 5).
2. The film has a strong cast, including Tom Blythe, Rachel Zegler, and Josh Andrés Rivera, which could attract new audiences and maintain the interest of existing fans (Strength: 4).
3. The marketing campaign for the prequel has been significant, with a strong focus on social media and promotional events (Strength: 4).
4. The film's release date, November 17, is strategically positioned to capitalize on the holiday season and attract audiences looking for a big-screen experience (Strength: 3).
5. The prequel's storyline offers a fresh perspective on the Hunger Games universe, which could appeal to both new and existing fans (Strength: 3).

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the prequel's box office performance is uncertain. However, the dedicated fan base, strong cast, and strategic release date are positive factors. On the other hand, the decline in box office performance of the previous films, competition, and global box office environment are negative factors. Based on these considerations, I would initially predict a moderate probability of the prequel grossing over $40,000,000 on its opening weekend.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be too high given the decline in box office performance of the previous films and the global box office environment. A more conservative approach might be warranted, considering these factors.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Given that the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of WorldCoin ($WLD) at 5:00 AM ET on July 24, 2023, was $22,780,000,000, I need to determine if the FDV of $WLD will exceed $10,000,000,000 by July 31, 2023, 5:00 AM ET. The FDV will be calculated by multiplying the Binance close price of the 1m WLD candle titled "07/31/2023 05:00" in the ET timezone by the total supply of $WLD. If the calculated FDV is greater than $10,000,000,000, the answer will be "Yes," otherwise, it will be "No."

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **Market Volatility:** The cryptocurrency market is known for its high volatility, which can lead to significant price fluctuations. A sharp decline in the price of $WLD could result in an FDV below $10,000,000,000. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Limited Adoption:** If $WLD has not gained significant traction or adoption within the cryptocurrency community, its price may not increase substantially, leading to an FDV below the threshold. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Competition from Established Coins:** The cryptocurrency market is highly competitive, with many established coins vying for market share. $WLD may struggle to gain significant market share, which could limit its price growth and FDV. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Regulatory Uncertainty:** Regulatory changes or uncertainty in the cryptocurrency space can negatively impact the price of $WLD, leading to a lower FDV. (Strength: 5/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **Initial Market Capitalization:** The initial FDV of $22,780,000,000 indicates a strong starting point for $WLD, suggesting that the coin has significant potential for growth. (Strength: 9/10)
2. **Investor Interest:** If investors are optimistic about the future prospects of $WLD, they may drive up the price, leading to an FDV exceeding $10,000,000,000. (Strength: 8/10)
3. **Innovative Features:** If $WLD offers innovative features or solutions that address significant pain points in the cryptocurrency space, it may attract a large following and drive up its price. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Marketing and Promotion:** Effective marketing and promotion efforts can increase awareness and interest in $WLD, leading to a higher price and FDV. (Strength: 6/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Considering the reasons above, I believe that the probability of the FDV exceeding $10,000,000,000 is relatively high, but not guaranteed. The initial market capitalization, investor interest, and innovative features of $WLD are strong indicators of potential growth, while market volatility, limited adoption, competition, and regulatory uncertainty pose risks. I will assign a moderate confidence level to my initial prediction.

**Initial Probability:** 60

**Evaluation and Final Thoughts:**

My initial probability of 60 may be considered not confident enough, given the strong initial market capitalization and potential for growth. However, the cryptocurrency market is inherently unpredictable, and unforeseen events can impact the price of $WLD. I will maintain my initial probability, but consider it a baseline for further refinement as more information becomes available.

**Final Prediction:** *0.6*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Sam Altman be officially charged with a criminal offense by any legal entity within the United States by November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is formally accused and charged with a crime, as confirmed by reliable news sources or an official statement from a recognized legal authority, such as a court of law, prosecutor's office, or police department. The market will resolve to "No" if no such charges are placed by the resolution date.

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No" (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- **Reason 1: Lack of public information**: There is no public information available about ongoing investigations or potential charges against Sam Altman, suggesting that there may not be any credible evidence to support charges. (Strength: 4)
- **Reason 2: No recent scandals or controversies**: Sam Altman is the CEO of Y Combinator, a prominent startup accelerator, and has not been involved in any high-profile scandals or controversies that could lead to criminal charges. (Strength: 3)
- **Reason 3: Effective legal representation**: As a prominent figure, Sam Altman likely has access to top-notch legal representation, which could help him avoid or mitigate any potential charges. (Strength: 2)
- **Reason 4: No clear motive**: There is no apparent motive for someone to bring charges against Sam Altman, which reduces the likelihood of charges being filed. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes" (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- **Reason 1: High-profile position**: As the CEO of Y Combinator, Sam Altman is a high-profile figure, and his actions are closely watched. This could lead to increased scrutiny and potential charges if he is involved in any questionable activities. (Strength: 4)
- **Reason 2: Potential conflicts of interest**: Sam Altman has been involved in various business ventures and investments, which could create potential conflicts of interest or lead to allegations of wrongdoing. (Strength: 3)
- **Reason 3: Regulatory scrutiny**: As a prominent figure in the tech industry, Sam Altman may be subject to increased regulatory scrutiny, which could lead to charges if he is found to be in non-compliance with laws or regulations. (Strength: 2)
- **Reason 4: Personal or professional mistakes**: Sam Altman, like any high-profile figure, may make mistakes or engage in behavior that could lead to charges, even if unintentional. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons provided, the likelihood of Sam Altman being charged with a criminal offense by November 30, 2023, seems relatively low. While there are some potential reasons why charges could be filed, the lack of public information and the absence of clear motives or scandals suggest that the likelihood of charges is low. However, the high-profile nature of Sam Altman's position and the potential for conflicts of interest or regulatory scrutiny mean that there is still some risk of charges being filed.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of Sam Altman being charged with a criminal offense by November 30, 2023, to be around 15%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:

The initial probability of 15% seems relatively low, considering the potential risks and uncertainties involved. However, it is also not excessively confident, given the lack of clear motives and public information. One consideration that could affect the forecast is the base rate of high-profile figures being charged with crimes, which may be relatively low. However, this could also be influenced by the fact that high-profile figures often receive more scrutiny and attention, which could lead to charges if they are found to be in non-compliance with laws or regulations.

7. Final prediction:

*0.17*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.17
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will authorized fuel (oil or gas) shipments, facilitated by the state of Israel, Egypt, or the United Nations, enter Gaza by November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This question only considers shipments that are officially sanctioned and does not account for any unauthorized fuel imports, such as those smuggled in by Hamas. The primary sources for this question will be official announcements from Israel, Egypt, the UN, and/or Hamas, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

*   Israel has historically been cautious about allowing fuel shipments to Gaza due to security concerns, particularly with Hamas in control of the territory (Strength: 4)
*   The recent history of fuel shortages and electricity cuts in Gaza might lead to a lack of urgency for Israel to facilitate shipments (Strength: 3)
*   There might be ongoing tensions or conflicts between Israel and Hamas that could impact the ability to facilitate fuel shipments (Strength: 4)
*   The complexity of the situation and the multiple parties involved might lead to delays or a lack of progress (Strength: 3)
*   The lack of a clear agreement or resolution on fuel shipments might indicate a lack of progress (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

*   The international community, including the UN, has been pushing for the resumption of fuel shipments to Gaza (Strength: 4)
*   There have been previous instances where Israel has allowed fuel shipments to enter Gaza, indicating a precedent for cooperation (Strength: 3)
*   The humanitarian situation in Gaza might be severe enough to prompt Israel to allow fuel shipments (Strength: 4)
*   Diplomatic efforts and negotiations might be underway to facilitate the resumption of fuel shipments (Strength: 3)
*   The need for a stable energy supply in Gaza might outweigh security concerns, leading to a decision to allow shipments (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for a "no" and a "yes" outcome, I would rate the likelihood of fuel shipments entering Gaza by November 30, 2023, as follows: There are strong reasons to believe that Israel might be cautious about allowing shipments due to security concerns and ongoing tensions with Hamas. However, there are also strong reasons to believe that the international community's pressure and the humanitarian situation in Gaza might prompt Israel to allow shipments. The situation is complex, and multiple factors are at play. I would rate the likelihood of fuel shipments entering Gaza by November 30, 2023, as 60%.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable given the complex situation and the multiple factors at play. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the strong reasons to believe that Israel might allow shipments due to international pressure and the humanitarian situation in Gaza. Considering the base rate of the event, it is also worth noting that fuel shipments to Gaza have been allowed in the past, which might increase the likelihood of it happening again.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will OpenSea announce a token by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, confirming their intention to have a token, regardless of when the actual token launch takes place? This confirmation can be made through OpenSea's official blog (XXXX), Twitter (XXXX), or OpenSea Pro (XXXX). The announcement of NFTs does not count as announcing a token. The question will resolve based on information available from these sources.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

- OpenSea might be focusing on other projects and not prioritizing token development (Strength: 6/10). OpenSea has been expanding its NFT platform and may not see the need for a token at this time.
- The complexity of creating a token might be too high, and OpenSea might be hesitant to take on this challenge (Strength: 7/10). Developing a token requires significant resources and expertise, which might be a barrier for OpenSea.
- OpenSea might be waiting for a more opportune time to announce a token, such as after a major platform update or a significant event (Strength: 5/10). This could be a strategic decision to maximize the impact of the token announcement.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

- OpenSea has been exploring the concept of tokens and might have already made significant progress (Strength: 8/10). OpenSea has been actively engaging with the NFT community and has discussed the potential benefits of tokens in the past.
- The increasing demand for tokens in the NFT space might encourage OpenSea to develop its own token (Strength: 9/10). As more platforms and marketplaces adopt tokens, OpenSea might feel pressure to stay competitive.
- OpenSea might see a token as a way to enhance its platform and offer more features to users (Strength: 8/10). A token could provide new opportunities for engagement, rewards, and community building.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that OpenSea has been exploring token development and is under pressure to stay competitive in the NFT market. However, the complexity of creating a token and the potential for prioritizing other projects are also significant factors.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of OpenSea announcing a token by September 30 at 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, given the mixed signals from the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as the reasons for a "yes" answer seem stronger. Considering the base rate of OpenSea's announcements and the increasing demand for tokens in the NFT space, it's possible that the actual probability is higher.

7. Final prediction:
*0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will any Chinese team from JDG, BLG, LNG, or WBG win the 2023 Season World Championship (Worlds 2023) in League of Legends? This market will resolve to "Yes" if a team from the China region wins 1st place. If the winner of the Worlds 2023 is not determined by December 31, 2023 ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is official information provided directly from Riot Games (e.g. lolesports.com) and official footage of the tournament, however other credible reporting may be used.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reason 1: The competitive balance between regions has shifted in favor of other regions, such as Korea and Europe, which have historically dominated the World Championship. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: The Chinese teams may face stiff competition from other strong teams from various regions, making it challenging for them to secure a top spot. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: Injuries or team dynamics issues within the Chinese teams may impact their performance in the tournament. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Reason 1: China has been consistently producing strong teams and players in recent years, with JDG and BLG being top contenders. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: The Chinese region has invested heavily in their teams and infrastructure, providing them with a competitive advantage. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: The format of the tournament allows for upsets, and China has a history of causing upsets in the Worlds. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the competitive balance between regions, and the strength of the Chinese teams, I would rate the likelihood of a Chinese team winning the Worlds 2023 as follows:
- Strengths for a Chinese win: 20 (8 + 7 + 5)
- Weaknesses for a Chinese win: 17 (6 + 7 + 4)
- Overall strength of evidence: 3 (20/17)

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of a Chinese team winning the Worlds 2023 as 54.5% (20/37).

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly biased towards the Chinese teams due to their recent performance. Considering the base rate of Chinese teams winning the Worlds, which is relatively low, the initial probability might be too high. A more conservative approach would be to lower the probability to account for this base rate.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will there be a confirmed volcanic eruption in Iceland by November 15, 2023, 11:59 PM Iceland Time (UTC + 0), following the declaration of a state of emergency on November 11, 2023, due to a series of intense earthquakes linked to a possible future volcanic eruption? The resolution will be based on a consensus of media reporting on whether an eruption occurred.

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No":
- **Reason 1: History of false alarms** (Strength: 6/10): Iceland has experienced numerous instances of volcanic unrest without actual eruptions. The recent earthquakes might not necessarily lead to a full-blown eruption.
- **Reason 2: Monitoring and prediction capabilities** (Strength: 8/10): Iceland has advanced monitoring systems to track volcanic activity. These systems might be able to detect potential eruptions before they occur, potentially preventing or minimizing damage.
- **Reason 3: No immediate eruption signs** (Strength: 4/10): As of November 13, there have been no reported immediate signs of an eruption, such as ash clouds, lava flows, or increased seismic activity. This lack of immediate signs might indicate that the situation is not as dire as initially thought.

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes":
- **Reason 1: Recent earthquake activity** (Strength: 9/10): The recent series of intense earthquakes indicates significant volcanic unrest, which often precedes eruptions. The increased seismic activity could be a sign that magma is moving beneath the surface.
- **Reason 2: State of emergency declaration** (Strength: 8/10): The Icelandic government declared a state of emergency, suggesting that they believe the situation is serious enough to warrant immediate action. This declaration might imply that an eruption is more likely than not.
- **Reason 3: Geothermal activity** (Strength: 7/10): Iceland is known for its geothermal activity, and the recent earthquakes might be a sign of increased geothermal activity, which could lead to an eruption.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the likelihood of an eruption is higher due to the recent earthquake activity and the state of emergency declaration. However, the history of false alarms and the lack of immediate signs of an eruption suggest that the situation might not be as dire as initially thought.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be around 60%. This is a moderate level of confidence, acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding volcanic eruptions.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon further consideration, I realize that the base rate of volcanic eruptions in Iceland is relatively low. Additionally, the accuracy of predictions and monitoring systems can be improved over time. These factors might suggest that the initial probability is slightly too high. I might consider lowering it to around 55%.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl LVIII (58) in the 2024 NFL season? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Atlanta Falcons win the Super Bowl LVIII. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the Falcons are eliminated from the playoff bracket at any point based on the NFL's playoff rules, this market will resolve immediately to "No." The question will be resolved on or before February 10, 2024, given the current date is January 6, 2024.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
   - The Falcons have not won a Super Bowl in their franchise history, which suggests a lack of experience in high-pressure situations and a potential disadvantage against more successful teams. (Strength: 6/10)
   - The Falcons have not had a strong regular season record in recent years, which may indicate a lack of consistency and a lower chance of making it to the Super Bowl. (Strength: 7/10)
   - The NFL is a highly competitive league with many strong teams, and the Falcons may face tough opponents in the playoffs, increasing the likelihood of an early elimination. (Strength: 8/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
   - The Falcons have a talented young quarterback in Desmond Ridder, who may improve his skills and performance throughout the season. (Strength: 5/10)
   - The Falcons have a strong running game, which can be a key factor in the playoffs, and a solid defense that can help them compete against top teams. (Strength: 6/10)
   - The Falcons have a relatively favorable schedule in the 2024 season, which may give them a chance to gain momentum and make a deep playoff run. (Strength: 4/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the Falcons face significant challenges in winning the Super Bowl, including their lack of experience, inconsistent regular season record, and tough opponents in the playoffs. However, they do have some positive factors, such as a talented young quarterback and a strong running game. Overall, the negative factors seem to outweigh the positive ones, making it less likely for the Falcons to win the Super Bowl.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Falcons winning the Super Bowl at around 10%.

6. Evaluation and refinement:
Upon further consideration, I realize that the base rate of the Falcons winning the Super Bowl is extremely low, given their franchise history and recent performance. This should temper my initial probability. Additionally, the NFL is a highly unpredictable league, and upsets can occur frequently. Therefore, it's essential to be cautious and not overestimate the Falcons' chances.

7. Final prediction:
*0.05*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.05
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Logan Paul's CryptoZoo refund at least $1,000,000 of investors' money by October 14, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, as reported by credible sources? The market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting, and the primary resolution source for this market will be not applicable/available for this question.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- **Reason 1: Financial instability and potential bankruptcy**: Logan Paul's CryptoZoo might be facing financial difficulties, making it challenging for the company to refund investors. Strength: 8/10
- **Reason 2: Lack of transparency and accountability**: If CryptoZoo has a history of poor communication or lack of transparency, it might be difficult for investors to trust that they will receive refunds. Strength: 6/10
- **Reason 3: Regulatory issues and lawsuits**: If CryptoZoo is facing regulatory issues or lawsuits, it might divert funds away from refunds and towards legal fees. Strength: 7/10
- **Reason 4: Market volatility and cryptocurrency fluctuations**: The cryptocurrency market can be highly volatile, and CryptoZoo's assets might not be liquid enough to cover refunds. Strength: 5/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- **Reason 1: Logan Paul's reputation and influence**: As a popular social media personality, Logan Paul has a significant following and influence, which could help him raise funds or negotiate with investors. Strength: 4/10
- **Reason 2: Public statements and promises**: If Logan Paul has publicly stated his intention to refund investors, it could indicate a commitment to honoring his promises. Strength: 3/10
- **Reason 3: Potential for a settlement or restructuring**: CryptoZoo might be working with investors or regulatory bodies to reach a settlement or restructuring agreement that includes refunds. Strength: 6/10

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons provided, it seems that the likelihood of CryptoZoo refunding at least $1,000,000 of investors' money by October 14, 2023, is uncertain. However, the reasons for a "no" outcome seem slightly more plausible, given the potential for financial instability, regulatory issues, and lack of transparency. On the other hand, Logan Paul's reputation and potential for a settlement or restructuring offer some hope for a positive outcome.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of CryptoZoo refunding at least $1,000,000 of investors' money by October 14, 2023, to be around 30%.

6. Evaluation and adjustment:
Considering the initial probability, it seems that I might be underestimating the potential for a positive outcome. However, I also don't want to overestimate the likelihood of a refund, given the potential risks and challenges mentioned earlier. Upon further consideration, I think the base rate of successful refunds in similar situations is relatively low, and CryptoZoo's situation might be more complex than initially thought. Therefore, I will slightly adjust my probability downward.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will The New York Times, on any of its official platforms, definitively state that Israel was not responsible for the hospital blast in Gaza by November 1, 2023? This could be in the form of a corrected article, a retraction, an updated headline, or a public statement explicitly attributing the blast to a different party (Hamas, PIJ, etc.). The question focuses on the New York Times' stance on the responsibility of the hospital blast in Gaza, specifically looking for a definitive statement from the publication. The resolution criteria are based on the New York Times' official publications and statements.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- Reason 1: The New York Times has a history of maintaining a balanced stance in reporting on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which might lead to them not making a definitive statement. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 2: The New York Times might be waiting for more concrete evidence or an official investigation before making a definitive statement. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 3: The New York Times might be concerned about being seen as taking a side in the conflict and therefore might avoid making a definitive statement. (Strength: 2)
- Reason 4: The New York Times might be under pressure from various groups or individuals to maintain their current stance on the issue. (Strength: 1)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- Reason 1: The New York Times has a history of correcting and updating their articles when new information becomes available, which could lead to a definitive statement on the hospital blast. (Strength: 5)
- Reason 2: The New York Times has a commitment to accuracy and fairness in their reporting, which might lead them to make a definitive statement if they find evidence that Israel was not responsible for the blast. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 3: The New York Times might have access to information that suggests Israel was not responsible for the blast, leading them to make a definitive statement. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons for the answer being "no" are relatively strong, especially considering the New York Times' history of maintaining a balanced stance and avoiding taking sides. However, the reasons for the answer being "yes" are also significant, particularly the New York Times' commitment to accuracy and fairness in their reporting.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would rate the initial probability of the answer being "yes" as 40.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems to be a reasonable estimate, considering the balanced nature of the New York Times' reporting and the potential for them to maintain their current stance. However, it might be on the lower end, given the New York Times' commitment to accuracy and fairness. The base rate of the event (i.e., the New York Times making a definitive statement on this issue) is difficult to estimate, but it's likely to be low given the complexity of the topic and the New York Times' cautious approach.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Aaron Rodgers play in any official NFL regular or post-season game during the remainder of the 2023-2024 season, considering he is currently on a team that has not been eliminated from the playoffs? The market resolves to "Yes" if he plays in any official game, and to "No" if his team is eliminated from the season before he plays another game.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Injury concerns** (Strength: 60%): Aaron Rodgers has had injuries in the past, and it's possible he could get hurt again, which would prevent him from playing in the remainder of the season. 
- **Reason 2: Team performance** (Strength: 40%): If Rodgers' current team struggles and is eliminated from the playoffs, he will not be able to play in the remainder of the season. However, this is not a strong reason since the market conditions state that the team has not been eliminated yet.
- **Reason 3: Contract or personal issues** (Strength: 20%): Rodgers might have contract disputes or personal issues that could lead to him sitting out the remainder of the season. However, this is a relatively weak reason, as there is no public information available to support this.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Past performance** (Strength: 80%): Aaron Rodgers is known for his exceptional playing ability and has a history of performing well even in the latter stages of the season.
- **Reason 2: Team's playoff chances** (Strength: 60%): As long as Rodgers' current team is still in the playoff hunt, there is a good chance he will play in the remainder of the season.
- **Reason 3: Coaching and team strategy** (Strength: 40%): The coaching staff and management might choose to play Rodgers in the remainder of the season to maintain his performance and team morale, even if they are not a top seed.

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons for "yes" are stronger than the reasons for "no." Rodgers' past performance, his team's playoff chances, and coaching decisions all point towards him playing in the remainder of the season. While injury concerns and team performance could affect his playing time, they are less significant factors given the current information.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, the initial probability that Aaron Rodgers will play in the remainder of the 2023-2024 season is 85.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
The initial probability might be slightly too confident, as there are some uncertainties involved, such as injury concerns and team performance. However, considering the strong reasons for "yes" and the relatively weak reasons for "no," the initial probability seems reasonable. The base rate of the event is difficult to determine, as there is no specific data on the likelihood of players playing in the remainder of the season.

7. Final prediction:
*0.80*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.8
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the co-founder of Binance, be arrested by June 30, 2023 (ET), according to credible reporting from governments involved, CZ's, and Binance's legal representatives? This market resolves to "Yes" if CZ is arrested by the specified date and "No" otherwise.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- CZ might have strong connections and resources that prevent his arrest (Strength: 6). As the CEO of a large and influential cryptocurrency exchange, CZ has a significant network and financial backing that could help him avoid or delay arrest.
- The authorities might not have enough evidence to warrant an arrest (Strength: 4). Without concrete evidence, the authorities might not have sufficient grounds to arrest CZ, especially if they are trying to gather more information or build a stronger case.
- CZ might be cooperating with the authorities, leading to a more lenient treatment (Strength: 5). If CZ is cooperating with the authorities, it's possible that he might not be arrested or might receive a more lenient treatment, especially if he provides valuable information or assistance.
- The authorities might not prioritize CZ's arrest due to other pressing cases (Strength: 3). The authorities might have more pressing cases or priorities, and CZ's arrest might not be a top priority for them, leading to a delay or no arrest at all.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- There have been ongoing investigations and lawsuits against Binance and CZ (Strength: 8). The fact that there are ongoing investigations and lawsuits against Binance and CZ suggests that the authorities are taking action, which increases the likelihood of an arrest.
- CZ's public persona and controversies might have raised concerns among regulators (Strength: 7). CZ's public statements and actions have raised concerns among regulators, which might have led to increased scrutiny and potential investigations.
- The increasing regulatory pressure on the cryptocurrency industry might lead to CZ's arrest (Strength: 6). As the cryptocurrency industry faces increasing regulatory pressure, it's possible that CZ might be arrested as part of a broader crackdown on the industry.
- CZ's past behavior might have raised suspicions among the authorities (Strength: 5). CZ's past behavior, such as his comments on regulatory matters, might have raised suspicions among the authorities, leading to increased scrutiny and potential arrest.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that there are more factors pointing towards a possible arrest (Strength: 8) than those pointing towards no arrest (Strength: 5). However, the strength of the factors pointing towards an arrest is somewhat offset by the potential influence of CZ's connections and resources.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of CZ being arrested by June 30, 2023, to be around 60.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems relatively high, considering the base rate of high-profile individuals being arrested is relatively low. Additionally, the fact that CZ has a strong network and resources might mitigate the likelihood of an arrest. However, the ongoing investigations and lawsuits against Binance and CZ, as well as the increasing regulatory pressure on the cryptocurrency industry, suggest that an arrest is possible.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will the US House of Representatives pass one or more articles of impeachment against President Joseph Biden by a simple majority vote by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, making it the first step towards impeachment, regardless of the outcome of a potential Senate trial or removal from office? If President Biden ceases to be the President before being impeached, the market will resolve to "No." This question relies on information from the federal government of the United States and credible reporting.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong)**

1. **Lack of clear evidence**: The impeachment process typically requires substantial evidence of wrongdoing or high-level wrongdoing, which might not be present in this case. (Strength: 4)
2. **Divided Republican Party**: The Republican Party is not unified, and there might not be enough votes in the House to pass articles of impeachment. (Strength: 3)
3. **Focus on other issues**: The Biden administration might be focused on addressing pressing domestic and international issues, leaving impeachment proceedings unlikely to gain traction. (Strength: 2)
4. **Historical context**: Impeachment is a rare and serious process, and the House might be hesitant to pursue it, especially without strong evidence. (Strength: 4)
5. **Biden's popularity**: President Biden's approval ratings are relatively stable, which might make it harder for Republicans to gather support for impeachment. (Strength: 3)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes (Strength: 1-5)**

1. **Partisan divisions**: The House is divided along party lines, and Republicans might be eager to use impeachment as a tool to weaken the Biden administration. (Strength: 5)
2. **High-profile investigations**: There are ongoing investigations into the Biden family, which could potentially uncover evidence of wrongdoing. (Strength: 4)
3. **Republican leadership support**: Some prominent Republicans have expressed support for impeachment, which could help build momentum. (Strength: 3)
4. **Potential for a scandal**: A new development or revelation could emerge that provides grounds for impeachment. (Strength: 4)
5. **Impeachment as a political tool**: Impeachment can be a powerful tool for Republicans to gain an advantage in the 2024 elections. (Strength: 5)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

After weighing the reasons for both "Yes" and "No," I conclude that the impeachment process is possible but not likely. The reasons for "No" (e.g., lack of clear evidence, divided Republican Party, and focus on other issues) seem more substantial, but the potential for a scandal or a high-profile investigation could still lead to impeachment.

**Initial Probability: 30**

My initial probability of 30 reflects the uncertainty surrounding the situation and the need for a significant event or development to occur before impeachment proceedings can begin.

**Reevaluation and Final Thoughts:**

Considering my initial probability, I think it might be too low. Impeachment is a serious process that requires a significant amount of evidence and support. However, the current environment is highly polarized, and Republicans might be more likely to pursue impeachment than I initially thought.

**Base rate of impeachment:** Impeachment is a relatively rare event, and the base rate of impeachment is low.

**Final Prediction: *0.45***
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the documents containing information about Jeffrey Epstein's associates, ordered to be unsealed by Federal Judge Loretta Preska on December 19, 2023, contain any mention of Prince Andrew by February 29, 2024, 11:59 PM ET? The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, with a consensus of credible reporting used as a secondary source. If the documents are not unsealed by February 29, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 6/10):
- The documents might not contain any information about Prince Andrew, as he has not been directly implicated in any significant way in the Epstein case, and the focus has been on Epstein's more direct associates.
- The unsealing of documents might be delayed or blocked by appeals or other legal challenges, preventing the information from being made public by February 29, 2024.
- The documents might not be thoroughly reviewed or searched for mentions of Prince Andrew, leading to a missed mention.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 8/10):
- Prince Andrew has been linked to Epstein and has been named in various reports and investigations related to the case, making it plausible that his name could be mentioned in the documents.
- The documents are ordered to be unsealed, which suggests that they contain information relevant to the Epstein case, and it is likely that Prince Andrew's involvement would be included if he was involved.
- The unsealing of documents often reveals new information, and it is possible that Prince Andrew's name could be mentioned in the unsealed documents, even if he has not been directly implicated before.

4. Aggregated considerations: 
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that there is a moderate chance that the documents could contain information about Prince Andrew, given his association with Epstein and the nature of the documents being unsealed. However, there are also plausible reasons why his name might not be mentioned, such as a lack of direct involvement or delayed or blocked unsealing of documents.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of initial probability: 
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too low given the strength of the reasons why the answer might be yes. Considering the base rate of the event, it is also worth noting that the probability of the documents containing information about Prince Andrew is not extremely low, given the context of the case.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the U.S. government officially state that Iran was directly involved in the recent attack on Israel in 2023, beyond just funding organizations and proxies, through a verifiable statement from a U.S. government official in a reputable news outlet or official U.S. government release on or before December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, and before the question resolves?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

   a. The U.S. government might be cautious not to escalate tensions with Iran, and therefore, might avoid making a direct accusation. (Strength: 6)
   b. The U.S. government might not have concrete evidence to support direct involvement by Iran, making it difficult to make a public statement. (Strength: 8)
   c. The U.S. government might be trying to negotiate a diplomatic solution with Iran and avoid further confrontation, leading to a reluctance to make a public accusation. (Strength: 5)
   d. The U.S. government might be aware of the potential consequences of accusing Iran, including retaliation or increased tensions in the region, and therefore, might choose to downplay the situation. (Strength: 7)
   e. The U.S. government might be relying on intelligence that is not yet publicly available or verifiable, and therefore, might not make a public statement. (Strength: 9)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

   a. The U.S. government might have strong evidence of direct involvement by Iran, making it difficult for them not to make a public statement. (Strength: 9)
   b. The U.S. government might be trying to send a strong message to Iran and other nations that they will not tolerate direct aggression, leading to a public statement. (Strength: 6)
   c. The U.S. government might be under pressure from the international community, including Israel and other allies, to take a strong stance against Iran. (Strength: 5)
   d. The U.S. government might be trying to build international support for a potential military or diplomatic response to the attack, making a public statement a necessary step. (Strength: 7)
   e. The U.S. government might have a history of making public statements about Iranian aggression, and this situation might be no exception. (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the U.S. government might be cautious not to escalate tensions with Iran, but also might have strong evidence of direct involvement. The pressure from the international community and the need to build support for a potential response might also play a role. However, the lack of concrete evidence and the potential consequences of making a public statement might also be a factor.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be around 40. This reflects the mixed signals and the potential for various factors to influence the U.S. government's decision.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, considering the mixed signals and the potential for various factors to influence the U.S. government's decision. However, it might be worth considering the base rate of the event, which is relatively low, given the complex nature of international relations and the U.S. government's cautious approach to making public statements about sensitive topics.

7. Final prediction:
*0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the US Congress pass and the President sign a new aid package to Israel by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET?

This question will resolve to "Yes" if a bill granting a new aid package to Israel is signed into law in the United States by the specified deadline. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, but a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. The resolution criteria are not applicable or available for this question. The current date is November 27, 2023, and the question will close on December 31, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

- **Reason 1: Congressional gridlock and partisanship**: The US Congress has experienced significant gridlock and partisanship in recent years, which might hinder the passage of a new aid package to Israel. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 2: Opposition from progressive Democrats**: Some progressive Democrats in Congress might oppose a new aid package to Israel, potentially blocking its passage. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 3: Budget constraints**: The US government might face budget constraints, making it difficult to allocate funds for a new aid package to Israel. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 4: Prioritization of other issues**: The US government might prioritize other issues over a new aid package to Israel, such as domestic policy or other international concerns. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

- **Reason 1: Strong bipartisan support for Israel**: The US has historically maintained strong bipartisan support for Israel, which could facilitate the passage of a new aid package. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 2: Existing aid package expiration**: The current aid package to Israel is set to expire, and a new package is likely to be passed to maintain US support for Israel. (Strength: 9/10)
- **Reason 3: US national security interests**: A new aid package to Israel could be seen as essential for US national security interests in the region. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 4: Potential bipartisan agreement**: There might be a bipartisan agreement to pass a new aid package to Israel, which could overcome potential obstacles. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the overall balance of evidence suggests that a new aid package to Israel is likely to be passed by the specified deadline. The strong bipartisan support for Israel, the expiration of the current aid package, and US national security interests all contribute to this assessment. However, the potential for congressional gridlock, opposition from progressive Democrats, budget constraints, and prioritization of other issues might hinder the passage of the package.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of a new aid package to Israel being passed by December 31, 2023, at 70.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 70 seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too optimistic given the potential obstacles mentioned above. However, it is also possible that the US government will find a way to overcome these challenges and pass the package. The base rate of the event is not particularly relevant in this case, as the outcome is not a common occurrence.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a hurricane make landfall in the conterminous United States within the timeframe of August 1 to August 31, 2023, according to the initial announcement by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on their website (XXXX)? This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline within the specified timeframe. If no tropical systems with hurricane status make landfall in the conterminous United States within this timeframe, the market will resolve to "No." The market will only resolve to "No" after August 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met. The resolution is based on the initial announcement by NOAA, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No":

- **Reason 1: Historical Trend (Strength: 6/10)**: August is the peak month for hurricane landfalls in the US, but the number of landfalls has been decreasing over the past few decades. This trend might indicate a lower likelihood of a hurricane making landfall in August 2023.
- **Reason 2: El Niño Conditions (Strength: 4/10)**: The possibility of El Niño conditions developing in 2023 might suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic, leading to fewer landfalls.
- **Reason 3: Cooler than Average Sea Surface Temperatures (Strength: 5/10)**: Cooler sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean might reduce the energy available for hurricanes to form and intensify.

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes":

- **Reason 1: Active Atlantic Hurricane Season (Strength: 8/10)**: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2023, with 14-22 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. This prediction suggests a higher likelihood of a hurricane making landfall in the US.
- **Reason 2: Favorable Atmospheric Conditions (Strength: 7/10)**: The African Easterly Jet Stream and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are atmospheric conditions that can contribute to hurricane formation and intensification. These conditions are expected to be favorable in August 2023.
- **Reason 3: Warm Sea Surface Temperatures (Strength: 9/10)**: The Atlantic Ocean has been warming over the past few months, providing a conducive environment for hurricane formation and intensification.

4. Aggregated considerations:
The factors contributing to a "Yes" resolution seem to outweigh those contributing to a "No" resolution. The predicted active Atlantic hurricane season, favorable atmospheric conditions, and warm sea surface temperatures are strong indicators of a higher likelihood of a hurricane making landfall in the US. However, the historical trend and El Niño conditions might slightly reduce the likelihood.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would assign an initial probability of 70 to the event.

6. Evaluation:
The initial probability seems reasonable, considering the factors mentioned. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of hurricane landfalls in the US, which is around 1-2 events per year. This might suggest that the initial probability is slightly too high. Additionally, the resolution is based on the initial announcement by NOAA, which might introduce some uncertainty.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the US successfully rescue at least one American hostage currently held by Hamas through a direct operation or negotiation by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This rescue operation or negotiation must be attributed to the U.S. and verifiable through reliable sources, such as verified news outlets or official U.S. government statements. If a rescue operation results in the return of at least one American hostage before the expiry date, the market will immediately resolve to "Yes". The rescue operation can take various forms, including a military operation, a diplomatic effort, or a combination of both.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The complexity of the situation: The hostage crisis involving Hamas and the US is a sensitive and complex issue, involving multiple stakeholders and interests. This complexity might make it challenging for the US to successfully rescue the hostages. (Strength: 4)
- The presence of other parties: The involvement of other countries, such as Israel, the Palestinian Authority, or other regional actors, might complicate the rescue efforts and hinder the US's ability to act unilaterally. (Strength: 4)
- The potential for a prolonged conflict: The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas might lead to a prolonged hostage crisis, making it more challenging for the US to rescue the hostages. (Strength: 3)
- The US's limited leverage: The US might not have sufficient leverage or influence over Hamas to negotiate the release of the hostages, making a rescue operation more difficult. (Strength: 3)
- The risks of unintended consequences: A US rescue operation might have unintended consequences, such as escalating the conflict or harming civilians, which could lead to a "no" outcome. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The US's military capabilities: The US has significant military capabilities and resources that could be used to rescue the hostages. (Strength: 5)
- The US's diplomatic efforts: The US has been actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis, which could lead to a successful rescue operation. (Strength: 4)
- The potential for a negotiated release: Hamas might be willing to negotiate the release of the hostages in exchange for concessions or other benefits, which could lead to a successful rescue. (Strength: 4)
- The US's experience in hostage rescue: The US has a history of successfully rescuing hostages in complex situations, which could increase the chances of a successful outcome. (Strength: 3)
- The international pressure: The international community might put pressure on Hamas to release the hostages, which could lead to a successful rescue operation. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the complexity of the situation, and the involvement of multiple stakeholders, it is likely that the US will face significant challenges in rescuing the hostages. However, the US's military capabilities, diplomatic efforts, and experience in hostage rescue operations suggest that there is a reasonable chance of a successful outcome. The strength of the "yes" reasons outweighs the strength of the "no" reasons, but the complexity of the situation and the potential for unintended consequences should not be underestimated.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of a successful rescue at 60.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, but it might be too low considering the US's military capabilities and diplomatic efforts. However, the complexity of the situation and the potential for unintended consequences might justify a lower probability. Additionally, the base rate of successful hostage rescues by the US is relatively high, which should be taken into account when evaluating the probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will New Democracy (Νέα Δημοκρατία, N.D.) secure more than 42% of the unrounded percentage of votes in the 2023 Greek legislative election scheduled for June 25, 2023, according to the official results finalized after the election? The resolution will be based on official information from the Greek government and/or the official website of the Hellenic Republic's Ministry of the Interior (XXXX), or a consensus of credible media reports.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reason 1: N.D. has faced internal conflicts and challenges within the party, which may have weakened its overall performance in the election. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: The Greek economy has been experiencing difficulties, which might have led to voter dissatisfaction with the current government or parties in general. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: The Greek political landscape is complex, with multiple parties vying for power, which might make it difficult for N.D. to achieve a majority of votes. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Reason 1: N.D. has a strong leader, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who has been popular among some Greek voters. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: The party has been working to address some of the economic issues in Greece, which might have improved its chances of gaining more votes. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: N.D. has a strong presence in certain regions of Greece, which could give it an advantage in the election. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that the factors favoring a yes outcome (Reasons 1-3) are stronger than those favoring a no outcome (Reasons 1-3). However, the strength of the reasons is not evenly distributed, and the outcome is still uncertain.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of N.D. securing more than 42% of the votes to be around 62%.

6. Evaluation:
The initial probability seems relatively moderate, taking into account the uncertainty surrounding the election. However, it might be considered not confident enough, given the relatively strong reasons in favor of a yes outcome. The base rate of N.D. winning the election is also relatively low, which might affect the forecast.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Declan Rice sign for Arsenal in the 2023 summer transfer window, which closes on September 1, 2023? This prediction market will resolve to "Yes" if Declan Rice officially signs with Arsenal during the transfer window. If a club announces that Rice has signed with them but later retracts that announcement, the market will resolve according to the initial announcement. The resolution source for this market will be official, credible announcements from either West Ham United or the signing club.

Reasons why the answer might be "No":

1. **Financial constraints**: West Ham United might not be willing to sell Declan Rice at a price that Arsenal is willing to pay, or the two clubs might be far apart in their negotiations. (Strength: 6/10)
2. Declan Rice has been a key player for West Ham United, and the club might not want to lose him, especially if they are not confident in their ability to replace him. (Strength: 5/10)
3. Declan Rice might prefer to stay at West Ham United or join another club, such as Manchester United or Chelsea, that he has been linked to in the past. (Strength: 4/10)
4. The transfer window might close without a deal being reached, or Arsenal might not be able to agree on a transfer fee and other terms with West Ham United. (Strength: 6/10)

Reasons why the answer might be "Yes":

1. **Arsenal's need for a defensive midfielder**: Arsenal have been linked to Declan Rice for some time, and his signing would address a key position of need for the club. (Strength: 8/10)
2. Declan Rice has been consistently linked to Arsenal, and the club has been actively pursuing him. (Strength: 9/10)
3. West Ham United might be willing to sell Declan Rice if they receive a significant transfer fee, which Arsenal might be willing to pay. (Strength: 7/10)
4. Declan Rice has expressed his desire to play in the Champions League, and joining Arsenal would give him a chance to compete at the highest level. (Strength: 6/10)

Aggregated considerations: Considering the reasons above, I think the likelihood of Declan Rice signing for Arsenal is relatively high due to the club's need for a defensive midfielder and the consistent links between the two parties. However, there are also potential obstacles, such as financial constraints and Declan Rice's personal preferences.

Initial probability: 70

Evaluation of the initial probability: I think my initial probability is not excessively confident, but it might be slightly too confident given the potential obstacles mentioned above. I did not consider the base rate of the event, which is likely to be low since transfer deals are often complex and difficult to negotiate.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Josh Giddey's contract with the Oklahoma City Thunder be officially terminated by the team or the NBA before 11:59 PM ET on December 7, 2023, due to any reason, as confirmed by reputable sports news sources? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Giddey is released from his contract by the Thunder, even if he is subsequently signed by another team. If there is no official confirmation of contract termination before the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- Josh Giddey is still a valuable player for the Thunder, and the team might see no need to terminate his contract. (Strength: 3)
- The Thunder may be working towards a trade or extension with Giddey, and a termination is not in their plans. (Strength: 2)
- Giddey's performance has been satisfactory, and the team is willing to keep him on the roster. (Strength: 2)
- The Thunder's management is happy with Giddey's development and does not see a reason to release him. (Strength: 2)
- There is no information about any issues or controversies surrounding Giddey's contract that would lead to termination. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- Josh Giddey has been involved in controversy or has underperformed, which could lead to contract termination. (Strength: 4)
- The Thunder are rebuilding and might be looking to free up cap space by releasing underperforming players, including Giddey. (Strength: 3)
- Giddey's contract is not suitable for the team's future plans, and they decide to release him. (Strength: 3)
- There is a trade in the works that involves Giddey's release from the Thunder. (Strength: 4)
- Giddey's contract is seen as a burden to the team's salary cap, and they decide to release him. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the most significant factors are the Thunder's plans for Giddey's contract and his performance on the court. If the team is satisfied with his development and sees him as a valuable player, the likelihood of termination decreases. However, if there are issues with his performance or the team's plans, the likelihood of termination increases.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Josh Giddey's contract being terminated as 40.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, as there are valid reasons for both a "yes" and "no" outcome. However, it might be slightly biased towards the "no" outcome due to the reasons provided, which seem to lean towards the Thunder keeping Giddey on the roster. To adjust for this, I might consider the base rate of contract terminations in the NBA, which could be around 10-20% per season. This might suggest that the initial probability should be adjusted downwards.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the share price of any Friend Tech user exceed 5 ETH at any point by Friday, August 25, 11:59 PM ET? Given the current market conditions and available information, what is the likelihood that at least one Friend Tech user's share price will surpass 5 ETH by the end of the specified time frame? This question will resolve based on data from the friend.tech app, and a consensus of credible sources will also be considered if necessary. The resolution criteria are not applicable or available for this question.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- **Reason 1:** Friend Tech's user base may not have a significant number of users with high-value shares, making it unlikely for any user's share price to exceed 5 ETH. (Strength: 6)
- **Reason 2:** The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, but Friend Tech's share prices might not be as sensitive to market fluctuations, reducing the likelihood of a share price exceeding 5 ETH. (Strength: 5)
- **Reason 3:** The question's resolution relies on a specific time frame (by Friday, August 25), which might be too short for a significant event or announcement to cause a substantial increase in share prices. (Strength: 7)
- **Reason 4:** Friend Tech's user base might be relatively small, and a high share price of 5 ETH might be an outlier, making it less likely to occur. (Strength: 8)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- **Reason 1:** Friend Tech's user base might be composed of experienced investors or enthusiasts who are willing to invest in high-risk, high-reward opportunities, increasing the likelihood of a share price exceeding 5 ETH. (Strength: 4)
- **Reason 2:** The cryptocurrency market is known for its unpredictability, and a significant event or announcement could cause a substantial increase in share prices, making it possible for a user's share price to exceed 5 ETH. (Strength: 9)
- **Reason 3:** Friend Tech's share prices might be more sensitive to social media trends and community engagement, which could lead to a rapid increase in share prices if the community is enthusiastic about the project. (Strength: 6)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I weigh the strengths of each argument. The reasons for a "no" answer seem more substantial, with a higher total strength rating (30) compared to the reasons for a "yes" answer (19). However, the cryptocurrency market's unpredictability and the potential for a significant event or announcement to cause a substantial increase in share prices cannot be entirely ruled out.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the initial probability of the share price exceeding 5 ETH to be around 20%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 20% seems relatively conservative, given the potential for a significant event or announcement to cause a substantial increase in share prices. However, considering the reasons for a "no" answer and the relatively short time frame for the event to occur, the initial probability might be too high. The base rate of the event is not explicitly provided, but it's essential to consider that the question's resolution relies on a specific time frame and a relatively high share price threshold.

7. Final prediction:
*0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) post at least one original tweet between June 26, 2023, and July 15, 2023 (11:59:59 PM ET), considering all quotes and replies as tweets, but not retweets? This market will resolve based on the activity on the verified Twitter account XXXX, and tweets from other accounts, even if verified, will not be considered for this market's resolution.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- Donald J. Trump has been known to take breaks from social media, which might suggest he might not be active on Twitter during this period. (Strength: 6/10)
- The market is asking for a specific behavior (tweeting at least once) within a short timeframe, which might be a challenging task for someone with a busy schedule. (Strength: 5/10)
- It's possible that Trump might be busy with other activities or events that could distract him from using Twitter. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- Donald J. Trump is known for being active on Twitter and often uses it to communicate with his followers. (Strength: 8/10)
- He has a large following and might feel the need to maintain a consistent presence on the platform. (Strength: 7/10)
- The market's timeframe is relatively short, and Trump has shown the ability to tweet frequently, even in the past. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and a "no" outcome, I think the likelihood of Donald J. Trump tweeting at least once between June 26, 2023, and July 15, 2023, is moderate. While there are valid reasons to believe he might not tweet, his history of activity on the platform and the relatively short timeframe suggest a higher likelihood of tweeting.

5. Initial probability:
65

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
My initial probability of 65 seems reasonable, given the balanced considerations of both "yes" and "no" outcomes. However, I should consider the base rate of the event, which might be difficult to estimate without more information. Additionally, I should consider the possibility that my initial probability might be too high or too low, given the subjective nature of the factors I've considered.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Pope Francis remain the Pope without interruption from June 29, 2023, through December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, based on official information from the Vatican and a consensus of credible reporting?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- Death of Pope Francis (strength: 8): Pope Francis is 86 years old as of 2023, and his advanced age increases the likelihood of health issues or mortality.
- Resignation due to health reasons (strength: 6): If Pope Francis's health declines significantly, he might resign to ensure a smooth transition and avoid any potential controversy.
- Vatican politics or internal conflicts (strength: 4): The Vatican has experienced internal conflicts in the past, which could lead to a change in the papacy.
- External pressures or threats (strength: 3): While unlikely, external pressures or threats could potentially force Pope Francis to resign or step down.
- Other unforeseen circumstances (strength: 2): There could be unforeseen events or circumstances that might lead to Pope Francis's resignation.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- Pope Francis's current health (strength: 7): While Pope Francis is 86 years old, he appears to be in relatively good health, which increases the likelihood of him serving out his term.
- No recent indication of resignation (strength: 8): There has been no indication from Pope Francis or the Vatican that he plans to resign.
- Pope Francis's commitment to serving the Church (strength: 9): Pope Francis has consistently expressed his commitment to serving the Church and has shown no signs of wanting to step down.
- The Vatican's stability (strength: 6): The Vatican has a well-established process for electing a new Pope, which reduces the likelihood of sudden changes.

4. Aggregated considerations: 
Considering the reasons for a "no" and "yes" outcome, I weigh the likelihood of Pope Francis's death or resignation due to health reasons as the most significant factors. However, his current health and commitment to serving the Church suggest that he will likely remain the Pope. The Vatican's stability and the lack of recent indications of resignation further support this conclusion.

5. Initial probability: 70

6. Evaluation: My initial probability might be slightly too confident, given the uncertainty surrounding Pope Francis's health and the potential for unforeseen circumstances. However, considering the base rate of papal resignations, which is relatively low, I should not adjust my probability significantly.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the 2023 film 'Five Nights at Freddy's' gross more than $60 million in its opening weekend in the domestic box office, according to the numbers on Box Office Mojo, specifically under the "Domestic Weekend" tab, which includes the 3-day weekend (Thursday to Sunday) revenue? The opening weekend is from October 27 to 29, 2023. If no final data is available by November 6, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The market will resolve to "Yes" if the film's opening weekend gross exceeds $60 million; otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The film's genre (horror) might not appeal to a broad audience, potentially limiting its box office performance. (Strength: 3)
- The film's competition during the opening weekend could be strong, drawing viewers away from 'Five Nights at Freddy's'. (Strength: 4)
- The film's marketing campaign might not have effectively reached a wide audience, affecting its box office potential. (Strength: 2)
- The film's Rotten Tomatoes score or Metacritic score might be low, indicating a lack of critical acclaim, which could negatively impact box office performance. (Strength: 4)
- The film's budget might be high, making it challenging to achieve a $60 million opening weekend. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The 'Five Nights at Freddy's' franchise has a dedicated fan base, which could translate to a strong opening weekend. (Strength: 5)
- The film's marketing campaign might have effectively targeted the horror genre's dedicated audience. (Strength: 4)
- Horror movies often perform well during the Halloween season, which could boost 'Five Nights at Freddy's' box office. (Strength: 5)
- The film's trailers and promotional materials have generated significant buzz and interest among horror fans. (Strength: 4)
- The film's opening weekend coincides with the Halloween season, which could lead to increased interest in horror movies. (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the factors pointing towards a strong opening weekend (genre, marketing, Halloween season, and fan base) seem to outweigh the potential drawbacks (competition, marketing, budget, and Rotten Tomatoes/Metacritic scores). The strength of the horror fan base and the Halloween season's impact on box office performance are significant advantages for 'Five Nights at Freddy's'.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of 'Five Nights at Freddy's' grossing over $60 million on its opening weekend to be 80.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 80% seems reasonable, but it might be excessively confident given the uncertainty surrounding the film's marketing campaign and competition during the opening weekend. The base rate of horror movies achieving a $60 million opening weekend is not explicitly provided, but it's essential to consider this when evaluating the forecast.

7. Final prediction:
*0.7*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will there be an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, as publicly announced and mutually agreed upon by both parties, between December 1, 2023, 11:00 AM ET and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, lasting at least 48 hours? This agreement must be recognized by both Israel and Hamas, and any form of informal, unratified, or verbal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- **Reason 1:** History of failed negotiations and ongoing tensions between Israel and Hamas, indicating a low likelihood of a mutually agreeable ceasefire (Strength: 4). 
- **Reason 2:** Ongoing Israeli military operations and targeted killings in Gaza, which may escalate tensions and hinder the possibility of a ceasefire (Strength: 3).
- **Reason 3:** The potential for internal divisions within Hamas and the Israeli government to hinder negotiations (Strength: 2).
- **Reason 4:** The possibility of external factors, such as regional conflicts or international pressure, disrupting the peace process (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- **Reason 1:** International pressure from the United States, the European Union, and other countries to negotiate a ceasefire and achieve a lasting peace (Strength: 4).
- **Reason 2:** Previous ceasefires between Israel and Hamas have been successful, indicating a possibility of a repeat (Strength: 3).
- **Reason 3:** Economic and humanitarian concerns in Gaza, which may motivate both parties to seek a peaceful resolution (Strength: 3).
- **Reason 4:** The potential for a negotiated agreement to address some of the underlying issues driving the conflict (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" outcome, it appears that the factors favoring a ceasefire are relatively strong, but the history of failed negotiations and ongoing tensions between Israel and Hamas suggest that a ceasefire is not guaranteed. The strength of international pressure and the potential for economic and humanitarian concerns to drive a peaceful resolution may outweigh the obstacles, but the situation remains uncertain.

5. Initial probability:

Given the considerations above, I would estimate the initial probability of an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas between December 1, 2023, and December 31, 2023, at 45%.

6. Evaluation and refinement:

Upon reviewing the initial probability, it seems relatively cautious but not excessively confident. However, considering the base rate of ceasefire agreements between Israel and Hamas, which have historically been rare and often short-lived, it's possible that the actual probability is even lower. This suggests that the initial probability may be too high.

7. Final prediction:

Considering the refined evaluation, I adjust the initial probability downward to account for the low base rate of ceasefire agreements between Israel and Hamas. The final prediction is:

*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump) post at least one tweet from his verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) between July 18 and September 30, 11:59 PM ET, considering that all quote and reply tweets count toward a "Yes" resolution, but retweets will not count? The resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account: XXXX. This market resolution will not consider tweets from any other account, even if they are from Donald J. Trump. The market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump tweets at least once during the specified time period, and to "No" if he does not tweet at all.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- Donald Trump has been relatively quiet on Twitter since taking office (Strength: 6). He has not been as active on the platform as he was during his presidential campaign.
- He might be focusing on other platforms, such as Truth Social, to communicate with his audience (Strength: 4). Although he still maintains an active presence on Twitter, he may be shifting his focus to other platforms.
- Donald Trump's Twitter account has been suspended or restricted in the past (Strength: 8). This could indicate a lack of commitment to the platform or difficulties in managing his online presence.
- Donald Trump's age and health might affect his ability to maintain a consistent Twitter presence (Strength: 5). As he gets older, he may face challenges in managing his online activities.
- The market might be subject to the "base rate fallacy" (Strength: 3). The base rate of Donald Trump tweeting is not provided, but if it's low, it could influence the market's resolution.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- Donald Trump has historically been an active Twitter user (Strength: 9). He has used the platform to communicate with his supporters and engage in public discourse.
- The specified time period is during the 2024 US presidential election season (Strength: 8). Donald Trump is likely to use Twitter to campaign and engage with his base, increasing the likelihood of tweets.
- Donald Trump has maintained a strong presence on Twitter despite past controversies and account restrictions (Strength: 7). He has consistently found ways to adapt and continue using the platform.
- The market resolution criteria only require one tweet, which is a relatively low bar (Strength: 6). Even if Donald Trump is not as active as he used to be, a single tweet would still satisfy the market's conditions.
- Donald Trump's Twitter account has a large following and is a key channel for his communication (Strength: 9). He is likely to continue using the platform to reach his audience.

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for both a "Yes" and "No" answer, the aggregated considerations suggest that the likelihood of Donald Trump tweeting at least once between July 18 and September 30 is relatively high. The historical evidence of his Twitter activity, his engagement in the 2024 presidential election, and the low bar for market resolution all contribute to a positive outlook.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate an initial probability of 80.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:

The initial probability of 80 seems reasonable, considering the historical data and the context of the 2024 presidential election. However, it may be slightly too confident, given the uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's Twitter activity and potential changes in his online behavior. A more conservative estimate might be warranted.

7. Final prediction:

*0.7*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Shohei Ohtani sign with the Toronto Blue Jays for the 2024 season? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Shohei Ohtani signs a contract with the Toronto Blue Jays for the 2024 season. It will resolve to "No" if it is announced that Ohtani has signed with any other team for the 2024 season. This market will stay open until it is definitively determined whether Shohei Ohtani will sign with the Blue Jays for the 2024 season. The resolution source will be official, credible announcements from either the Toronto Blue Jays or the signing team. The market will be open until January 12th, 2024.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength of each reason):

- Reason 1: Shohei Ohtani's agent, Nez Balelo, has a history of exploring multiple options and negotiating with various teams. This might indicate that Ohtani is open to signing with other teams. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: The Toronto Blue Jays have limited financial resources compared to other teams, which might make it difficult for them to match the offers from other teams. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: Ohtani's personal preferences and family considerations might play a significant role in his decision, and he might choose to sign with a team that is closer to his family or has a more desirable environment. (Strength: 4/10)
- Reason 4: The Blue Jays might not be the top choice for Ohtani, and he might prefer to sign with a team that is a more competitive contender in the American League East. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength of each reason):

- Reason 1: The Toronto Blue Jays have a strong pitching staff and a talented young core, which could be an attractive factor for Ohtani. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: The Blue Jays have a strong management team and a proven track record of making savvy moves, which might indicate that they have a good chance of signing Ohtani. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: Ohtani has mentioned in the past that he values the opportunity to play in a big market, and Toronto is a major city with a strong baseball following. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 4: The Blue Jays have a strong farm system and a good mix of veteran players, which could make them an appealing team for Ohtani to join. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons provided, it seems that the reasons for the answer being no are stronger than the reasons for the answer being yes. However, it's essential to consider the strength of each reason and the overall context. The Blue Jays' strong management team and talented young core are significant factors in their favor, but the limited financial resources and Ohtani's agent's history of exploring multiple options are significant concerns.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Shohei Ohtani signing with the Toronto Blue Jays for the 2024 season to be around 30%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 30% seems relatively low, considering the Blue Jays' strong management team and talented young core. However, the limited financial resources and Ohtani's agent's history of exploring multiple options are significant concerns. It's also essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is that Shohei Ohtani is a highly sought-after free agent, and it's challenging to predict his decision with certainty.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Kevin McCarthy formally announce his intention to step down as a member of the US House of Representatives or have his resignation reported by a reputable source, such as a government website or major news outlet, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No" (and their strength):
- Reason 1: Kevin McCarthy has not publicly expressed any intentions to resign, and there is no indication that he plans to leave his position. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: McCarthy has faced significant challenges in his role as Speaker of the House, but he has managed to navigate these challenges and maintain his position. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 3: There is no clear successor or alternative candidate who could potentially replace McCarthy, which might make it more difficult for him to step down. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes" (and their strength):
- Reason 1: Kevin McCarthy has faced significant opposition within his own party, particularly from the Freedom Caucus, and has struggled to maintain party unity. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 2: McCarthy has been criticized for his handling of certain issues, including the debt ceiling and government shutdowns, which could potentially lead to his resignation. (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 3: McCarthy has been a polarizing figure, and his continued presence in the House could continue to be a source of controversy and division. (Strength: 3/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both "Yes" and "No," it seems that the balance of evidence is slightly in favor of Kevin McCarthy remaining in his position. However, the reasons for "Yes" are not insignificant, and there are potential catalysts that could lead to his resignation.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Kevin McCarthy resigning from the House by December 31, 2023, to be 30.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 30 seems relatively low, given the potential for significant opposition and criticism that McCarthy faces. However, there is no clear indication that he plans to resign, and he has managed to navigate challenging situations in the past. The base rate of politicians resigning from office is relatively low, which might suggest that the probability is lower than it actually is.

7. Final prediction:
*0.40*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will there be any community notes attached to a tweet or post made by @JoeBiden on his official X account (formerly Twitter) or x.com between December 4, 12:00 AM ET and December 11, 11:59 PM ET? The resolution of this market will primarily rely on the official Biden X account, with credible reporting serving as a secondary source for verification.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

* Biden might be on a scheduled break or vacation during this period and not post anything on X (Strength: 20%)
* He might be dealing with a crisis or sensitive situation that requires his attention, leading to reduced online activity (Strength: 30%)
* He could be focusing on high-level diplomatic or official events that prevent him from posting on X (Strength: 25%)
* He might be experiencing technical issues with his X account, preventing him from posting (Strength: 10%)
* He could simply not feel the need to post anything during this time (Strength: 15%)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

* As the President, Biden regularly engages with his audience on social media to share updates and interact with the public (Strength: 40%)
* He often uses his social media accounts to address current events, policies, or announcements, which might occur between December 4 and 11 (Strength: 35%)
* Given the nature of his job, there might be ongoing events, policies, or initiatives that require his online presence (Strength: 25%)
* He could be using his X account to promote an upcoming event or initiative, increasing the likelihood of a post (Strength: 10%)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both "yes" and "no," it seems that the balance tips slightly towards the likelihood of Biden posting something on X between December 4 and 11. However, there are still several factors that could prevent him from doing so.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of community notes being attached to a Biden X post between December 4 and 11 to be 55.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon reviewing my initial probability, I consider it to be not excessively confident but also not entirely conservative. Given the nature of the job and the importance of social media presence for a public figure like the President, it's reasonable to expect some level of activity. However, there are always unforeseen circumstances that could affect his online presence. I consider the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a typical day for Biden posting on X) to be around 60-70%, which might be slightly higher than my initial estimate.

7. Final prediction:
*0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will at least 90% of the money diverted from Remilia by the developer cited in the tweet by Charlotte Fang (@charlottefang77) be returned by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This market will resolve based on official information from Remilia or Charlotte Fang (@CharlotteFang77), with a secondary consideration of credible reporting. The question will be resolved to "Yes" if the condition is met, and "No" otherwise.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- The developer may be unwilling to return the funds, citing financial difficulties or other reasons (Strength: 6/10).
- Remilia or Charlotte Fang may not have the leverage or resources to pressure the developer into returning the funds (Strength: 5/10).
- The developer might be involved in a larger financial scandal, making it difficult to recover the funds (Strength: 4/10).
- There may be unforeseen circumstances, such as a global financial crisis or regulatory issues, that could prevent the return of the funds (Strength: 3/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- Remilia or Charlotte Fang may have established a clear plan to recover the funds, increasing the likelihood of success (Strength: 7/10).
- The developer may have a history of cooperating with authorities or returning funds in similar situations (Strength: 6/10).
- There may be a strong public backlash against the developer, motivating them to return the funds (Strength: 5/10).
- Remilia or Charlotte Fang may have obtained a court order or other legal means to compel the developer to return the funds (Strength: 8/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the factors pointing towards a "yes" outcome have slightly stronger evidence and more convincing arguments. The developer's willingness to return funds, a clear plan, and potential public pressure all contribute to a more optimistic outlook. However, the uncertainty surrounding the developer's intentions, leverage, and potential unforeseen circumstances introduce some doubt.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the funds being returned as 60%.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
The initial probability of 60% might be considered relatively low, given the strength of the reasons pointing towards a "yes" outcome. It's essential to consider the base rate of similar events, which might be relatively rare. However, without more information, it's challenging to accurately estimate this base rate. Additionally, the specific context and details of the situation, such as the developer's reputation and Remilia's resources, could impact the outcome.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Sam Altman be directly mentioned as the 2023 TIME Person of the Year in any of TIME magazine's official announcements or publications, either alone or in conjunction with another person or thing, by January 15, 2024 (11:59 PM ET)? This market resolves to "Yes" if Sam Altman is directly referenced as the Person of the Year, either individually or alongside another entity, in the official TIME magazine announcements or publications. If there is any ambiguity or discrepancy between TIME's cover and other web pages, this market resolves to "Yes" if Sam Altman is mentioned as the Person of the Year in any of these official announcements or publications.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reason 1: Sam Altman's involvement in OpenAI might not be significant enough to warrant him being named Person of the Year (Strength: 20/100). As the CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman's impact on the company might not be substantial enough to earn him the title.
- Reason 2: Other individuals or entities might have had a more significant impact in 2023, overshadowing Sam Altman's accomplishments (Strength: 30/100). The Person of the Year title often goes to individuals who have made significant contributions or have had a substantial impact on the world in the given year.
- Reason 3: TIME magazine might choose to recognize a group or entity rather than an individual, which would not include Sam Altman (Strength: 50/100). In recent years, TIME has recognized groups, such as the COVID-19 Frontline Workers or the Climate Activists, as Person of the Year, rather than an individual.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Reason 1: Sam Altman's leadership at OpenAI and the company's rapid growth and advancements in AI might make him a strong candidate for Person of the Year (Strength: 60/100). OpenAI's development of ChatGPT and other AI models has been significant, and Sam Altman's role in this process might be recognized by TIME.
- Reason 2: Sam Altman's influence on the tech industry and his advocacy for AI development might make him a prominent figure in 2023, increasing his chances of being named Person of the Year (Strength: 40/100). As a prominent figure in the tech industry, Sam Altman's opinions and actions have significant impact on the field.
- Reason 3: TIME magazine has a history of recognizing individuals who have made significant contributions to the world, and Sam Altman's work in AI could be seen as a major achievement (Strength: 80/100). TIME has recognized individuals who have made significant contributions in various fields, and Sam Altman's work in AI could be seen as a major achievement.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons provided, the strengths of the reasons for a "no" answer are relatively low, with a total strength of 100/100. The strengths of the reasons for a "yes" answer are higher, with a total strength of 180/100. This suggests that the answer is more likely to be "yes," but there is still a chance that the answer could be "no."

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be around 65%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 65% seems reasonable, given the reasons provided. However, it might be slightly too confident, as the reasons for a "no" answer are not entirely negligible. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of an individual being named Person of the Year) is relatively low, which should be taken into account when making the final prediction.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will 'The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' (2023) gross more than $50 million on its 3-day opening weekend in the domestic market, as reported by Box Office Mojo? The market will resolve to "Yes" if the film's domestic weekend box office total for the period from November 17 to November 19 exceeds $50 million. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The market will consider the domestic weekend box office total, which may include Thursday previews, and will not be based on studio estimates. If final data is not available by November 27, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, an alternative credible source will be used to determine the resolution.

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Reasonable opening weekend expectations:** The film is a prequel, which might not generate the same level of excitement as the original Hunger Games series. This could lead to a lower opening weekend gross. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Competition from other releases:** The movie might face competition from other films released around the same time, potentially drawing away audiences and reducing the opening weekend gross. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Mixed reception of the prequel's trailer:** The trailer for 'The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes' received mixed reviews, which might affect audience interest and, consequently, the opening weekend box office performance. (Strength: 4/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Strong brand recognition:** The Hunger Games franchise has a dedicated fan base, which could translate to a strong opening weekend performance. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Marketing efforts:** The film's marketing campaign might be effective in generating buzz and excitement among fans and potential viewers. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Positive word-of-mouth:** The prequel's storyline and characters might resonate with audiences, leading to positive word-of-mouth and a strong opening weekend. (Strength: 7/10)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that the factors pointing towards a strong opening weekend (brand recognition, marketing efforts, and positive word-of-mouth) outweigh the potential drawbacks (reasonable opening weekend expectations, competition, and mixed reception of the trailer). However, the strength of these factors varies, and the prequel's performance is uncertain.

Initial probability: 62

Evaluation of initial probability:

The calculated probability seems reasonable, but it might be on the conservative side. The Hunger Games franchise has a strong brand, and the prequel's marketing efforts have been substantial. However, the prequel's storyline and mixed trailer reception introduce some uncertainty.

Considering the base rate of the event (a successful opening weekend for a big-budget film like this), the initial probability might be too low. The base rate for a film grossing over $50 million on its opening weekend is likely higher than 62%.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas account for less than 25.0% of Saudi Arabia's GDP in Q3 of 2023, according to the official information from the General Authority for Statistics (XXXX), specifically the percentage in the pie chart in their Q3 report? If no information is released by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is strongest):

- Reason 1: Historically, the oil sector has been a significant contributor to Saudi Arabia's GDP, with Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas often accounting for more than 50% of the country's GDP. This suggests that a sudden drastic decline in the oil sector's contribution is unlikely. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 2: The Saudi government has been actively diversifying its economy through the Vision 2030 program, which aims to reduce the country's dependence on oil exports. However, this process might not be completed by Q3 2023, and the oil sector might still be a dominant contributor to the GDP. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 3: Saudi Arabia has been increasing its oil production in recent years to meet global demand, which could lead to a higher contribution of the oil sector to the country's GDP. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is strongest):

- Reason 1: The Saudi government has been making efforts to diversify its economy and reduce the country's dependence on oil exports. A successful implementation of these plans could lead to a decrease in the oil sector's contribution to the GDP. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 2: The global shift towards renewable energy and the increasing competition from other oil-producing countries might lead to a decrease in the global demand for Saudi oil, reducing the oil sector's contribution to the country's GDP. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 3: The General Authority for Statistics might have released new data or methods for calculating GDP that could lead to a revised percentage, potentially showing a decrease in the oil sector's contribution. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the historical dominance of the oil sector in Saudi Arabia's GDP and the ongoing efforts to diversify the economy, it is unlikely that Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas will account for less than 25.0% of the country's GDP in Q3 2023. However, the Saudi government's diversification efforts and the global shift towards renewable energy might lead to a decrease in the oil sector's contribution. The strength of these opposing factors is relatively balanced, but the historical dominance of the oil sector gives it a slight edge.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas accounting for less than 25.0% of Saudi Arabia's GDP in Q3 2023 as 20.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 20 seems to be relatively low, considering the Saudi government's efforts to diversify the economy. However, the historical dominance of the oil sector and the ongoing efforts to increase oil production might justify this estimate. The base rate of the event is not explicitly mentioned, but it is likely that the oil sector has historically accounted for a significant percentage of Saudi Arabia's GDP. This might make the event less likely than initially estimated.

7. Final prediction:
*0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Drake's album 'For All the Dogs' achieve over 300,000 sales, including streaming equivalents, in its first week of release (ending August 31, 2023)? The resolution of this market will be based on the "TOTAL" figure from the HITS TOP 50 list found at XXXX, which is the primary resolution source. If the specified chart is unavailable or does not list 'For All the Dogs', an alternative credible source will be used. The market will resolve to "Yes" if the album reaches the specified sales milestone and to "No" otherwise. The current date is August 22, 2023, and the question will close on August 31, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Drake's previous album 'Honestly, Nevermind' received a lukewarm reception, which might indicate a decline in his commercial appeal (Strength: 3)
- The album release date is relatively late in August, which could lead to a shorter sales window before the end of the month (Strength: 2)
- The music industry's current trends and consumer behavior might not favor traditional album sales, potentially impacting Drake's sales numbers (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Drake is a highly successful and popular artist with a large fan base, which could lead to strong sales (Strength: 5)
- The album's release date is still within the summer season, a historically popular time for music releases and sales (Strength: 4)
- The album's marketing and promotion efforts might generate significant buzz and interest among fans and the general public (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, Drake's popularity and commercial appeal are significant factors in his favor. However, the lukewarm reception of his previous album and the late release date in August might hinder his sales. The current music industry trends and consumer behavior could also impact his numbers. Overall, while there are valid reasons for both a "Yes" and "No" outcome, the evidence suggests a slightly higher likelihood of the album achieving over 300,000 sales.

5. Initial probability:
60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, considering the factors mentioned. However, it might be slightly biased towards a "Yes" outcome due to Drake's popularity. To account for this, the probability could be adjusted slightly downward. Additionally, the base rate of albums achieving over 300,000 sales in their first week is relatively low, which should be considered when evaluating the probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will Lionel Messi score a goal in his next official game for Inter Miami CF after August 29, 2023, 12:00 PM ET, considering goals and penalties scored during regular time and extra time but excluding goals scored during a penalty shootout? The primary resolution source for this market will be official footage of the game, with a consensus of credible reporting from sources like ESPN (XXXX) serving as a secondary source.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
   a. Messi might be having an off-game or struggling with form, which could affect his ability to score. (Strength: 6/10)
   b. Inter Miami CF might be facing a strong defensive team that could limit Messi's scoring opportunities. (Strength: 5/10)
   c. Messi might not be fully fit or healthy, which could impact his performance and scoring chances. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
   a. Messi is a highly skilled and experienced player with a proven track record of scoring goals. (Strength: 9/10)
   b. Inter Miami CF might be playing a team that Messi is familiar with, which could give him an advantage. (Strength: 6/10)
   c. Messi has a strong work ethic and is known for his ability to adapt to different situations and opponents. (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the reasons for both "yes" and "no," it seems that Messi's skills and experience give him a significant advantage. However, the uncertainty surrounding his form, fitness, and the opponent's defense could affect his scoring chances.

5. Initial probability: 70

6. Evaluation: The initial probability of 70 seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident given the uncertainty surrounding Messi's form and the opponent's defense. The base rate of a player scoring in a game is relatively high, but it's essential to consider the specific context of this game. A more conservative approach might be warranted.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the 2023 film 'Elemental' gross more than $37,500,000 domestically on its opening weekend, which spans from June 16 to June 18, according to the final numbers reported by Box Office Mojo? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the film's 3-day domestic box office total exceeds $37,500,000. If not, it will resolve to "No." The opening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. The market will resolve based on the Domestic Weekend tab on Box Office Mojo, which may include domestic box office earnings from the United States, Canada, or other countries, depending on the source. If no final data is available by June 26, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible source will be used for resolution.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):

- The film's marketing campaign might not have generated enough buzz or interest among the target audience, leading to lower ticket sales. (Strength: 6/10)
- The competition from other films released around the same time could have drawn viewers away from 'Elemental.' (Strength: 7/10)
- The film's genre or storyline might not appeal to a broad enough audience to generate significant box office revenue. (Strength: 5/10)
- The film's production budget and marketing costs might be too high, making it challenging for it to break even, let alone gross over $37.5 million on its opening weekend. (Strength: 4/10)
- The film's release date might coincide with a period of economic uncertainty or other factors that could deter people from going to the movies. (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):

- The film's marketing campaign has generated significant buzz and interest among the target audience, particularly among fans of the film's director or cast. (Strength: 8/10)
- The film's unique visual style and storyline, which combines elements of animation and sci-fi, could appeal to a broad audience and generate significant box office revenue. (Strength: 9/10)
- The film's release date coincides with a period of relatively low competition from other major film releases, giving it a better chance to attract viewers. (Strength: 6/10)
- The film's production budget and marketing costs are reasonable, allowing it to break even and potentially generate a profit. (Strength: 5/10)
- The film's cast, which includes Angelina Jolie and Leah Clark, might attract a significant number of viewers interested in seeing them on the big screen. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided above, the film's potential to gross over $37.5 million on its opening weekend seems uncertain. However, the reasons in favor of a successful opening weekend (particularly the unique visual style and storyline, and the relatively low competition) seem more compelling than the reasons against it. Therefore, my initial probability assessment is that the film will gross over $37.5 million on its opening weekend.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 55% might be slightly too conservative, as the reasons in favor of a successful opening weekend seem more substantial than the reasons against it. However, I have not considered the base rate of films grossing over $37.5 million on their opening weekend, which might be relatively low. This could affect the overall probability assessment.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will 'The Last Voyage of the Demeter' gross more than $8 million on its 3-day opening weekend in the domestic market (USA and Canada) as per the final data available on Box Office Mojo? The market will resolve to "Yes" if the film's opening weekend box office collection exceeds $8 million, and to "No" if it is less than or equal to $8 million. The opening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. If there is no final data available by August 21, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The market will be resolved based on the Box Office Mojo numbers under the "Domestic Weekend" tab for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA or to the USA and Canada, etc.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Reason 1: The film is a horror movie based on a lesser-known source material, which might limit its appeal to a broader audience. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 2: The film's marketing campaign might not have been extensive or effective, potentially affecting its box office performance. (Strength: 2)
- Reason 3: The film's release date coincides with other movies or events that might draw attention away from 'The Last Voyage of the Demeter'. (Strength: 1)
- Reason 4: The film's production budget might be high, making it challenging for it to break even, let alone gross over $8 million on its opening weekend. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Reason 1: The film has a strong cast and crew, which could attract a dedicated fan base and positive word-of-mouth. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 2: Horror movies have a dedicated fan base, and 'The Last Voyage of the Demeter' might appeal to this audience. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 3: The film's unique premise and setting (a ship at sea) could provide a fresh take on the horror genre and generate interest among audiences. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 4: The film's release date might coincide with a lull in new releases, giving it a clearer path to box office success. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both "yes" and "no," it seems that the film has some factors working in its favor, such as its unique premise and strong cast, but also faces challenges, including its lesser-known source material and potential competition from other releases. The strength of the reasons for "yes" seems to outweigh those for "no," but the overall uncertainty and the base rate of films grossing over $8 million on their opening weekend are still significant.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would initially estimate the probability of 'The Last Voyage of the Demeter' grossing over $8 million on its opening weekend as 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident given the uncertainty surrounding the film's performance. Considering the base rate of films grossing over $8 million on their opening weekend, which is likely to be relatively low, the probability might be adjusted downward. Additionally, the film's marketing campaign and release date might have a significant impact on its box office performance, which is difficult to quantify.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Twitter/X Corp. initiate a lawsuit against Meta by July 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, considering both official announcements from Twitter and Meta and credible reporting? This market includes any subsidiaries of X Corp and Meta. The resolution criteria for this market are based on official information from both parties and a consensus of credible reporting.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- Twitter and Meta might resolve their issues through negotiations or settlements before the deadline (Strength: 6/10)
- The companies might decide to drop the lawsuit or postpone it indefinitely (Strength: 5/10)
- There is no credible evidence or leaks suggesting an imminent lawsuit (Strength: 4/10)
- The companies might be working on a non-litigious resolution, such as a partnership or agreement (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- There have been ongoing tensions and disputes between Twitter and Meta, which could lead to a lawsuit (Strength: 8/10)
- Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter and the subsequent changes in leadership might have increased the likelihood of a lawsuit (Strength: 7/10)
- The companies have a history of litigation, and it's possible they might sue each other over various issues (Strength: 6/10)
- The deadline of July 15 is close, and it's possible that Twitter might initiate a lawsuit before the deadline (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that there are more reasons pointing towards a possible lawsuit between Twitter and Meta. However, the reasons against a lawsuit are not negligible, and there's a possibility that the companies might resolve their issues through other means.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of Twitter suing Meta by July 15 as 62.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
Upon further consideration, I realize that my initial probability might be too high. The base rate of lawsuits between companies is relatively high, but the specific circumstances of this case are unique. I should consider the fact that the companies might be more likely to resolve their issues through negotiations or settlements, given their size and influence. This might make the probability lower than my initial estimate.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Aaron Rodgers, the quarterback of the New York Jets, play in at least one NFL game between September 12, 2023, PM ET and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? The resolution of this question is based on official information from the NFL, including game footage, and a consensus of credible reporting. For the purposes of this market, "playing another NFL game" means Aaron Rodgers is on the field through the completion of at least one down. This question will resolve to "Yes" if Aaron Rodgers meets this criterion within the specified time frame and to "No" if he does not.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Aaron Rodgers has been dealing with injuries in the past, which could impact his ability to play by December 31 (strength: 4). 
- Rodgers is 39 years old, which could contribute to his decreased playing time or ability to perform at a high level by the end of the year (strength: 3).
- Rodgers might choose to sit out games to rest and recover, potentially affecting his availability for the remainder of the season (strength: 4).
- Rodgers' team, the New York Jets, might choose to rest him for the remainder of the season due to a strong position in the standings or playoff seeding (strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Aaron Rodgers has a history of playing through injuries and has shown resilience throughout his career (strength: 5).
- The NFL season is long, and Rodgers has consistently played in 16 games in the past (strength: 4).
- The New York Jets might choose to have Rodgers play to maintain momentum and secure a strong playoff position (strength: 3).
- There is no indication from Rodgers or the team that he is retiring or planning to sit out the remainder of the season (strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that Aaron Rodgers has a strong track record of playing through injuries and maintaining a high level of performance. However, his age and the possibility of resting games to recover or maintain a strong playoff position could impact his availability. The strength of the reasons for a "yes" answer outweigh the reasons for a "no" answer.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Aaron Rodgers playing in at least one NFL game between September 12, 2023, and December 31, 2023, to be 85.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 85 seems reasonable given the information available. However, it might be slightly overly confident, as there are several variables that could impact Rodgers' availability, such as his team's performance and the strength of their playoff position. Additionally, the base rate of NFL players playing in the final weeks of the season is high, so it's essential to consider this when evaluating the probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.80*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.8
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Saudi Arabia officially accept an invitation to join the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) economic bloc by the initiation date of January 1, 2024, thereby becoming the sixth member of the group? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Saudi Arabia accepts the invitation to join BRICS. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If Saudi Arabia does not join BRICS by January 1, 2024, this market will resolve to "No." There is no additional information available for resolving this question.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- **Reason 1: Geopolitical tensions**: Saudi Arabia's close relationship with the United States and other Western countries might hinder its ability to join BRICS, which is seen as a rival economic bloc to the Western-dominated World Bank and International Monetary Fund (Strength: 6/10).
- **Reason 2: Economic concerns**: Joining BRICS might require Saudi Arabia to make significant economic concessions, such as restructuring its economy or increasing its dependence on other BRICS members (Strength: 5/10).
- **Reason 3: Domestic opposition**: There might be domestic opposition in Saudi Arabia to joining BRICS, potentially due to concerns about the country's sovereignty or the potential impact on its economy (Strength: 4/10).
- **Reason 4: Uncertainty about BRICS' future**: There is uncertainty about the future of BRICS and its potential to become a more significant economic force, which might make Saudi Arabia hesitant to join (Strength: 3/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- **Reason 1: Economic benefits**: Joining BRICS could provide Saudi Arabia with access to new markets, investment opportunities, and a more stable economic environment (Strength: 8/10).
- **Reason 2: Diversification of economic partnerships**: Joining BRICS would allow Saudi Arabia to diversify its economic partnerships and reduce its dependence on the United States and other Western countries (Strength: 7/10).
- **Reason 3: Increased influence**: As a member of BRICS, Saudi Arabia would gain a stronger voice in global economic decision-making and potentially increase its influence in international organizations (Strength: 6/10).
- **Reason 4: China's influence**: China, a key player in BRICS, has significant economic and strategic interests in Saudi Arabia, and might use its influence to persuade the country to join the bloc (Strength: 5/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the economic benefits and increased influence seem to be the most significant advantages of Saudi Arabia joining BRICS. However, the geopolitical tensions, economic concerns, and domestic opposition might hinder the country's ability to join. The uncertainty about BRICS' future and China's influence also play a role. Based on these considerations, the initial probability of Saudi Arabia accepting the invitation to join BRICS by January 1, 2024, is 60.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be overly optimistic. The geopolitical tensions and economic concerns might be more significant than initially considered. The base rate of the event is also unknown, which could affect the forecast. However, considering the economic benefits and increased influence, the probability might be slightly higher than the base rate.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will any part of the missing F-35 fighter jet be located by the United States Armed Forces or any credible sources confirming the recovery of the aircraft by September 20, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, as stated by the US Government or the United States Armed Forces?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-10, 10 being the strongest):
- The search area might be too vast, making it difficult to locate the F-35, especially if it crashed in a remote or hard-to-reach location. (Strength: 6)
- The F-35 could be buried underwater or in a hard-to-reach terrain, making recovery challenging or even impossible. (Strength: 8)
- The US Armed Forces might not have the necessary resources or technology to locate the F-35 within the given timeframe. (Strength: 5)
- The pilot's ejection and subsequent crash might have caused significant damage to the aircraft, making it harder to identify or locate. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-10, 10 being the strongest):
- The US Armed Forces have extensive search and rescue capabilities, including advanced technology and equipment, which could aid in locating the F-35. (Strength: 9)
- The F-35 is a relatively new aircraft, and its design might make it easier to locate, especially if it has any distinctive features or markings. (Strength: 7)
- The search area might be relatively small, increasing the chances of locating the F-35 within the given timeframe. (Strength: 6)
- The US Armed Forces might have already started searching the area and have a good idea of the F-35's location, increasing the chances of a successful recovery. (Strength: 8)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths of the reasons for both possibilities, the reasons for the answer being yes seem more substantial. The US Armed Forces' search capabilities, the F-35's design, and the potential for a relatively small search area all contribute to a higher likelihood of locating the aircraft. However, the vastness of the search area, the potential for the F-35 to be buried, and the lack of resources or technology could hinder the recovery efforts.

5. Initial probability: 70

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident. The base rate of locating a missing aircraft is relatively low, and the complexity of the search operation should be taken into account. However, the US Armed Forces' capabilities and the potential for a successful recovery within the given timeframe should not be underestimated.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Harry Kane sign a contract with Bayern Munich during the 2023 Summer transfer window, which closes on September 1, 2023? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kane officially signs with Bayern Munich during this period. It will resolve to "No" if Kane signs a contract extension with Tottenham Hotspur or signs with another club. If a club announces Kane's signing but later retracts the announcement, the market will resolve based on the initial announcement. The resolution source will be official, credible announcements from Tottenham Hotspur or the signing club.

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No" and their strength:
- Kane has been with Tottenham Hotspur for most of his career and has shown loyalty to the club, which might make him less likely to leave. (Strength: 60%)
- Bayern Munich has a strong squad and might not be desperate to sign Kane, which could affect their willingness to meet Tottenham's transfer demands. (Strength: 40%)
- Kane has been linked with other clubs in the past, but ultimately stayed with Tottenham, which could indicate a strong preference for staying with his current club. (Strength: 50%)
- The transfer window is closing soon, which might limit the time for negotiations and could make a deal less likely. (Strength: 30%)
- There might be personal or family reasons that make it difficult for Kane to move to Bayern Munich. (Strength: 20%)

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes" and their strength:
- Bayern Munich has a strong financial backing and could offer Kane a significant salary increase, making it an attractive option. (Strength: 80%)
- The club has a history of signing high-profile players, and Kane would be a great addition to their squad. (Strength: 70%)
- Bayern Munich has a strong manager in Thomas Tuchel, who might be able to convince Kane to join the club. (Strength: 50%)
- Kane has been linked with Bayern Munich in the past, and the club has been rumored to be interested in signing him. (Strength: 60%)
- A change of scenery and a chance to play in the Champions League might be appealing to Kane, especially if he feels stagnant at Tottenham. (Strength: 40%)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the balance of evidence suggests that the answer is more likely to be "No" due to Kane's loyalty to Tottenham and the short time frame for negotiations. However, the potential financial benefits and the club's strong squad make a move to Bayern Munich plausible. A weighted average of the strengths of the reasons provided suggests a slight lean towards "No."

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the initial probability to be 40.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability seems reasonable, considering the balance of evidence. However, it might be slightly too low, given the strong financial incentives and the club's interest in signing Kane. A more nuanced approach might consider the specific circumstances of the transfer window and the clubs involved.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the total count of the word "terrorist" (including its plural and possessive forms) mentioned by the invited candidates during the live 4th RNC primary debate on December 6, 2023, exceed or equal 10? If the debate is cancelled or delayed beyond December 12, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is live video of the debate, with official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting serving as a tiebreaker in case of ambiguity.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The debate's format might not focus on terrorism or national security, potentially limiting the number of times the word "terrorist" is mentioned. (Strength: 3)
- The candidates might be cautious in their language to avoid being seen as inflammatory or divisive, which could lead to fewer mentions of the word "terrorist." (Strength: 4)
- The debate might cover a wide range of topics, diluting the focus on any single issue, including terrorism. (Strength: 2)
- The candidates might use more nuanced or coded language to discuss terrorism, avoiding explicit mentions of the word. (Strength: 3)
- The debate might be relatively short, limiting the total number of statements and, consequently, the number of times the word "terrorist" is mentioned. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The RNC primary debate is a high-stakes event, and candidates might use the word "terrorist" to emphasize their tough stance on national security. (Strength: 4)
- The debate might focus on foreign policy or national security, increasing the likelihood of terrorism-related discussions. (Strength: 5)
- The candidates might be trying to appeal to a specific demographic or base, using the word "terrorist" to rally support. (Strength: 3)
- The debate might be live, and the candidates might feel pressure to respond to current events or recent attacks, leading to more mentions of the word "terrorist." (Strength: 4)
- The word "terrorist" is a emotive and attention-grabbing term, and candidates might use it to make a point or create a dramatic effect. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and a "no" answer, I think the debate's format, the candidates' language choices, and the focus of the debate will play a significant role in determining the outcome. While there are valid reasons to expect a low count, the potential for the candidates to use the word "terrorist" to emphasize their stance on national security or to appeal to their base suggests a higher likelihood of the word being mentioned multiple times.

5. Initial probability:

Given the considerations above, I estimate the probability of the word "terrorist" being mentioned 10 or more times during the debate at 40%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:

My initial probability seems relatively low, considering the potential for the candidates to use the word "terrorist" to make a point or appeal to their base. However, I also considered the possibility that the debate might not focus on terrorism or that the candidates might be cautious in their language. A more nuanced approach might be to consider the base rate of the event, which is not explicitly provided. However, given the high-stakes nature of the debate and the potential for the candidates to use the word "terrorist," I think my initial probability is a reasonable starting point.

7. Final prediction:

*0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the US Department of Defense (DoD) announce the Biden Administration's forty-third drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine by July 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, considering this will resolve the market to "Yes"? The resolution is based on official information from the DoD (e.g., XXXX) and a consensus of credible reporting. This market only concerns the forty-third drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021 and does not account for other aid packages.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength rating out of 10):

- The Biden Administration might prioritize other foreign policy or domestic issues over Ukraine aid, potentially delaying the drawdown announcement (Strength: 6/10).
- The US Congress might not provide sufficient funding for Ukraine aid, leading to a delay in the drawdown (Strength: 5/10).
- The DoD might face bureaucratic or logistical challenges in preparing and announcing the forty-third drawdown (Strength: 4/10).
- The US and Ukraine might reach a negotiated agreement that reduces the need for additional aid, potentially delaying the drawdown announcement (Strength: 3/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength rating out of 10):

- The Biden Administration has consistently provided aid to Ukraine since August 2021, suggesting a pattern of support (Strength: 9/10).
- The US has a strong commitment to supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, making it likely that the DoD will continue to provide aid (Strength: 8/10).
- The DoD has already conducted 42 previous drawdowns, indicating a high level of preparedness and efficiency in the process (Strength: 7/10).
- The US and Ukraine have a well-established relationship and communication channels, facilitating the announcement of the forty-third drawdown (Strength: 6/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" outcome, I weigh the strength of each argument. The Biden Administration's consistent support for Ukraine and the established relationship between the US and Ukraine suggest a high likelihood of the forty-third drawdown announcement. However, potential bureaucratic and logistical challenges, as well as competing priorities, might slow down the process. I assign a moderate confidence level to the outcome.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the initial probability of the DoD announcing the forty-third drawdown by July 31, 2023, to be 70.

6. Evaluation and adjustment:

Considering the initial probability, I assess it as not excessively confident but also not confident enough. The Biden Administration's track record and the established relationship with Ukraine suggest a strong likelihood of the drawdown announcement. However, the potential for bureaucratic and logistical challenges might affect the timing. I should consider the base rate of the event, which is the number of previous drawdowns that have occurred on or before the specified deadline. In this case, the base rate is 42 out of 42 previous drawdowns (100%), which supports the initial probability.

7. Final prediction:

Given the considerations above, I adjust the initial probability to 80, acknowledging the strong likelihood of the DoD announcing the forty-third drawdown by July 31, 2023.

*0.80*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.8
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will Donald J. Trump, the 45th President of the United States, become the subject of a gag order by any federal or state court in the United States between September 18, 2023, and October 15, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET? A gag order, as defined for this market, is a legally binding court order that prohibits Trump from discussing, commenting on, or disseminating information related to a specific legal case or investigation. This definition includes orders issued by a federal or state court within the United States, including the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a state. The primary sources for determining the resolution of this market will be official information from US courts and government, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No (Strength Rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):**

1. **Historical Precedent**: Trump has been the subject of numerous lawsuits and investigations throughout his presidency and post-presidency, but gag orders have not been a common outcome. (Strength: 4)
2. **Trump's Ability to Navigate the Legal System**: As a seasoned politician and businessman, Trump has shown an ability to navigate the US legal system and avoid gag orders in the past. (Strength: 3)
3. **Potential for Delayed or Appealed Orders**: Even if a gag order is issued, it may be delayed or appealed, potentially preventing it from being in effect by October 15. (Strength: 2)
4. **Limited Scope of Investigations**: Some investigations may not involve Trump directly, or may not be significant enough to warrant a gag order. (Strength: 2)
5. **Trump's Media Presence**: As a public figure, Trump has a significant media presence, which could make it difficult for a gag order to be enforced. (Strength: 1)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes (Strength Rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):**

1. **Ongoing Investigations and Lawsuits**: Trump is currently facing numerous investigations and lawsuits, including those related to his business dealings and the January 6th Capitol riot. (Strength: 5)
2. **Increased Scrutiny and Public Pressure**: As a public figure, Trump is under intense scrutiny, and courts may be more likely to issue gag orders in response to public pressure. (Strength: 4)
3. **Courts' Ability to Issue Gag Orders**: Federal and state courts have the authority to issue gag orders, and some may be more likely to do so in high-profile cases involving public figures. (Strength: 4)
4. **Potential for New Developments**: New evidence or information may come to light between September 18 and October 15, leading to the issuance of a gag order. (Strength: 3)
5. **Courts' Desire to Maintain Order**: Courts may issue gag orders to maintain order and prevent interference with ongoing investigations or proceedings. (Strength: 2)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Based on the reasons above, I believe that the probability of a gag order being issued to Trump between September 18 and October 15 is moderate to high. While there are valid reasons to believe that a gag order may not be issued, the ongoing investigations and lawsuits against Trump create a strong likelihood of a gag order being issued.

**Initial Probability: 65**

**Evaluation of Initial Probability:**

My initial probability of 65 may be considered overly confident, given the uncertainty surrounding the outcome. However, I have considered a range of factors, including Trump's historical precedent, his ability to navigate the legal system, and the potential for delayed or appealed orders. While these factors may reduce the likelihood of a gag order, they do not eliminate it entirely. I have also considered the ongoing investigations and lawsuits, as well as the courts' ability to issue gag orders.

**Final Prediction: *0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will there be a confirmed volcanic eruption in Iceland by November 17, 2023, 11:59 PM Iceland Time (UTC + 0), following the declaration of a state of emergency on November 11, 2023, due to a series of intense earthquakes linked to a possible future volcanic eruption? The resolution of this question will be based on a consensus of media reporting regarding the occurrence of a volcanic eruption.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):
- The earthquakes that triggered the state of emergency might not necessarily lead to a volcanic eruption, as earthquakes can occur without an eruption. (Strength: 4)
- Iceland has a complex geology, and volcanic eruptions can be unpredictable. It's possible that the current seismic activity might not result in an eruption. (Strength: 4)
- Iceland's volcanoes have had periods of increased seismicity without resulting in a major eruption. (Strength: 3)
- The current situation might be a false alarm, and the volcanic system might not be building up to a major eruption. (Strength: 3)
- The declaration of a state of emergency might be a precautionary measure, and the authorities might be overreacting to the situation. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):
- The series of intense earthquakes indicates a significant increase in seismic activity, which is often a precursor to a volcanic eruption. (Strength: 5)
- Iceland's geology is characterized by numerous volcanoes, and eruptions can occur without warning. (Strength: 4)
- The state of emergency was declared due to the earthquakes, suggesting that the authorities are taking the situation seriously and are preparing for a possible eruption. (Strength: 4)
- The recent earthquakes might be a sign that magma is moving beneath the surface, increasing the likelihood of an eruption. (Strength: 4)
- Iceland's volcanoes have a history of producing large-scale eruptions, and the current situation could be a sign of a similar event. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the likelihood of a volcanic eruption in Iceland by November 17, 2023, seems to be relatively high. The intensity of the earthquakes, the declaration of a state of emergency, and the country's geological characteristics all suggest that an eruption is possible. However, the unpredictability of volcanic eruptions and the possibility of a false alarm should not be underestimated.

5. Initial probability: 70

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 70 seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too low considering the intensity of the earthquakes and the declaration of a state of emergency. However, it's also possible that the authorities are overreacting, and the situation might not escalate to a major eruption. The base rate of volcanic eruptions in Iceland is relatively low, but the current situation is unique, and the probability should be adjusted accordingly.

7. Final prediction: *0.80*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.8
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will any participant in the 2023 RNC primary debate on August 23 say the words "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at any point during the event? The resolution will be determined by live video of the debate, with official transcripts and/or credible reporting serving as a secondary source in case of ambiguity. If the debate is cancelled or delayed beyond September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No."

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
1. Debate topics might focus on other issues (Strength: 3) - The RNC primary debate might focus on domestic and foreign policy issues, economy, healthcare, etc., rather than AI or technology. This could lead to less discussion of AI-related topics.
2. Candidates might not see AI as a priority (Strength: 2) - Some candidates might not consider AI a significant issue or might not have a clear stance on it, which could result in minimal or no discussion of AI during the debate.
3. AI might not be a pressing concern for Republican voters (Strength: 1) - Republican voters might not prioritize AI as a key issue, which could lead to less emphasis on AI during the debate.

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
1. AI has gained significant attention in recent years (Strength: 5) - AI has become a prominent topic in various fields, including technology, healthcare, education, and the economy, making it likely to be discussed in the debate.
2. AI has implications for various sectors (Strength: 4) - AI affects multiple areas, such as jobs, national security, healthcare, and education, which are often discussed in debates. Candidates might touch on AI-related issues in these contexts.
3. Debate moderators might ask AI-related questions (Strength: 4) - The debate moderators might ask questions about AI, its applications, or its impact on society, which could lead to the words "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" being mentioned.

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the factors above, the debate's focus on pressing issues, candidates' priorities, and the growing relevance of AI in various sectors, it's likely that AI will be mentioned during the debate. However, the strength of the reasons for a "no" answer suggests that there's a possibility that AI might not be a significant topic.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the mixed considerations. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event and the potential for unexpected factors to influence the debate.

Final prediction: *0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will 'The Nun II' (2023) gross over $40 million on its 3-day opening weekend in the domestic box office, according to the final numbers provided by Box Office Mojo? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the film's domestic weekend box office total for September 8-10, 2023, exceeds $40,000,000. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The opening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release. If there is no final data available by September 17, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

1. **Weak (4)**: The film's predecessor, 'The Nun' (2018), had a successful opening weekend but not extremely high ($53.8 million). However, this might not directly translate to the sequel's performance.
2. **Weak (3)**: The horror genre has seen some decline in recent years, which might affect the film's box office performance.
3. **Weak (2)**: The film's marketing campaign might not have generated sufficient buzz or excitement among audiences.
4. **Weak (1)**: There might be other factors, such as competition from other movies or external events, that could impact the film's opening weekend.

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

1. **Moderate (6)**: The 'Conjuring' universe has a dedicated fan base, which might drive interest in the sequel.
2. **Strong (8)**: The film's release in September often allows for a strong opening weekend, as it avoids the crowded summer months and the holiday season.
3. **Moderate (5)**: The film's marketing campaign has generated some buzz and excitement among fans, which could translate to a strong opening weekend.
4. **Weak (2)**: The film's Rotten Tomatoes score and audience score are positive, indicating some critical and audience acclaim, which might help its box office performance.

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the most significant factors influencing the outcome are the dedicated fan base of the 'Conjuring' universe and the film's marketing campaign. However, the decline of the horror genre and potential competition from other movies might also impact the film's performance.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, as it reflects the mixed signals from the reasons above. However, it might be considered not confident enough, given the potential strength of the 'Conjuring' franchise and the film's marketing campaign.

Re-evaluation:
Upon re-evaluation, I consider the base rate of films grossing over $40 million on their opening weekend, which is relatively high. This might suggest that the initial probability should be higher. However, the potential decline of the horror genre and competition from other movies could still impact the film's performance.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the New Social Contract (NSC) party win a plurality of seats in the 2023 Dutch General Election, i.e., secure the most seats in the House of Representatives compared to any other party? This market will resolve to "Yes" if NSC achieves this outcome after the election results are finalized. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." In the event that the election results are not known by April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary sources for resolving this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, official information from the government of the Netherlands, and/or information published through the official website of the Dutch electoral council (XXXX).

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strongest to weakest):
   - **Strongest (8/10)**: The current Dutch political landscape is dominated by established parties like the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), the Labour Party (PvdA), and the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), which have a strong base of support and a long history of success. These parties might be able to maintain their influence and prevent NSC from securing a plurality of seats.
   - **Moderate (6/10)**: The NSC party is a relatively new and smaller party, which might make it challenging for them to gain significant traction and secure a plurality of seats in the election.
   - **Weak (4/10)**: The Dutch political landscape is subject to various factors like voter sentiment, economic conditions, and global events, which can influence the election outcomes. While these factors can impact the NSC's performance, they do not necessarily guarantee a loss for the party.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strongest to weakest):
   - **Strongest (8/10)**: The NSC party has gained popularity in recent years, and their message of a "new social contract" resonates with some segments of the Dutch population. If they can maintain their momentum, they might be able to secure a plurality of seats.
   - **Moderate (6/10)**: The NSC party has a clear and distinct platform, which might appeal to voters disillusioned with the traditional parties. If they can effectively communicate their message and build a strong campaign, they might be able to attract enough support to secure a plurality of seats.
   - **Weak (4/10)**: The NSC party has a relatively strong online presence and social media following, which can be an advantage in reaching a younger and more digitally savvy electorate.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the factors mentioned above, the NSC party's chances of securing a plurality of seats seem uncertain. While they have some strengths, such as their distinct platform and online presence, they also face significant challenges, including the dominance of established parties and the unpredictable nature of the Dutch political landscape.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I would estimate the initial probability of the NSC party winning a plurality of seats in the 2023 Dutch General Election at 40%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability seems reasonable, considering the uncertainty surrounding the election outcomes. However, it might be slightly too low, given the NSC party's recent popularity and the potential for a significant shift in voter sentiment. The base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of any party winning a plurality of seats in a Dutch general election) is difficult to estimate, but it is likely relatively low, given the fragmented nature of the Dutch political landscape.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Donald J. Trump tweet from his verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) at least once between July 9 and July 31, 11:59 PM ET? This market will resolve to "Yes" if he tweets at least once during this time frame, including quote and reply tweets, but excluding retweets. The resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account (@realdonaldtrump). If Donald J. Trump tweets from another account, it will not affect the resolution of this market.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):

- **Reason 1: Donald J. Trump's Twitter usage has decreased since his presidency.** (Strength: 6/10) Donald J. Trump's Twitter activity has been less frequent since his presidency, which might indicate a reduced reliance on the platform.
- **Reason 2: Donald J. Trump has not been actively promoting his Twitter account.** (Strength: 4/10) There has been no notable effort from Donald J. Trump to promote his Twitter account or increase his online presence.
- **Reason 3: Donald J. Trump's focus has shifted to other platforms.** (Strength: 5/10) Donald J. Trump has been using other platforms, such as Truth Social, which might indicate a reduced reliance on Twitter.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):

- **Reason 1: Donald J. Trump has a history of being active on Twitter.** (Strength: 8/10) Donald J. Trump was known for his frequent and often provocative tweets during his presidency.
- **Reason 2: Twitter is still a significant platform for Donald J. Trump.** (Strength: 7/10) Despite his decreased usage, Twitter remains a prominent platform for Donald J. Trump to communicate with his followers and respond to current events.
- **Reason 3: Donald J. Trump often uses Twitter to respond to news and events.** (Strength: 9/10) Donald J. Trump frequently uses Twitter to react to news, controversy, and current events, which increases the likelihood of him tweeting during the specified time frame.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for a "yes" and "no" outcome, it appears that Donald J. Trump's past behavior and Twitter usage patterns suggest a higher likelihood of him tweeting during the specified time frame. However, his decreased Twitter activity and focus on other platforms might indicate a lower likelihood.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Donald J. Trump tweeting at least once between July 9 and July 31, 11:59 PM ET, to be around 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems to be a reasonable estimate, considering the mixed signals from Donald J. Trump's past behavior and current platform usage. However, it might be slightly too confident, given the uncertainty surrounding his Twitter activity.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will TIME magazine name "AI" or a phrase directly referring to artificial intelligence (e.g., ChatGPT, GPT-4) as the 2023 Person of the Year, either alone or in conjunction with another person or entity, on its cover or official website by January 15, 2024? If TIME's cover and other webpages have different winners for the Person of the Year, only one of them needs to mention AI or AI models/interfaces as the winner for this market to resolve to "Yes." If the 2023 TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by January 15, 2024, this market will resolve to "No."

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- **Reason 1: Historical precedent**: TIME magazine has traditionally named a person, not an abstract concept or technology, as the Person of the Year. This suggests that the magazine might continue this trend. Strength: 6/10
- **Reason 2: Focus on human impact**: TIME magazine often selects individuals who have made significant contributions or had a substantial impact on society, which might lead them to choose a person rather than an AI system. Strength: 7/10
- **Reason 3: Technical difficulties**: Naming AI as the Person of the Year might be a complex decision, requiring a nuanced explanation and justification, which could be challenging for the magazine to execute. Strength: 4/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- **Reason 1: Growing influence of AI**: AI has become increasingly influential in various aspects of society, including technology, healthcare, finance, and education, making it a plausible choice for the Person of the Year. Strength: 8/10
- **Reason 2: Popularity of AI-related topics**: The media and public discourse have been focusing on AI-related topics, such as ChatGPT and GPT-4, which could increase the likelihood of AI being chosen as the Person of the Year. Strength: 9/10
- **Reason 3: Time's willingness to experiment**: TIME magazine has been known to experiment with non-traditional choices for the Person of the Year, such as the 2020 choice of "The Climate Crisis." This suggests that they might be open to selecting AI as the Person of the Year. Strength: 6/10

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both "yes" and "no," I weigh the strengths and weaknesses. The growing influence of AI, its popularity in the media, and TIME's willingness to experiment with non-traditional choices make the case for AI being the Person of the Year more compelling. However, the historical precedent and focus on human impact provide some counterarguments.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 60% might be considered not confident enough, given the strong reasons for the "yes" case. The influence of AI and its popularity in the media make a strong argument for it being chosen as the Person of the Year. However, I have considered the historical precedent and focus on human impact, which might lead to a more cautious approach.

7. Final prediction: *0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Turkish Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee raise the one-week repo auction rate (policy rate) above its current level of 8.5% at its scheduled June 2023 meeting? The decision will be based on the TCMB's statement after the meeting, and the market will resolve to "Yes" if the rate is raised, and "No" if it remains the same or is lowered. If no statement is released by July 6, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, the market will resolve 50-50.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The Turkish economy has been experiencing a recession, and the central bank might want to maintain a low interest rate to stimulate growth (Strength: 4).
- The current inflation rate in Turkey is relatively high, but the central bank might be cautious about raising interest rates too quickly, given the risk of exacerbating the economic downturn (Strength: 3).
- The Turkish lira has been relatively stable against the US dollar, which might reduce the need for a rate hike (Strength: 2).
- The central bank might be waiting for more economic data before making a decision (Strength: 2).
- The current policy rate is already relatively high at 8.5%, which might limit the room for a further increase (Strength: 1).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The inflation rate in Turkey is still relatively high, and a rate hike could help combat inflation (Strength: 5).
- The Turkish economy has been experiencing a large current account deficit, and a rate hike could help reduce the deficit by making imports more expensive (Strength: 4).
- The central bank has a history of raising interest rates to combat inflation, and it might continue this trend (Strength: 4).
- The Turkish lira has been relatively volatile, and a rate hike could help stabilize the currency (Strength: 3).
- The central bank might want to maintain its credibility and independence by taking a hawkish stance on inflation (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and a "no" answer, it seems that the Turkish Central Bank has a strong motivation to raise interest rates to combat inflation and stabilize the economy. However, the current economic downturn and the relatively high current policy rate might limit the room for a further increase. The central bank's decision will likely be data-dependent, and it might wait for more economic data before making a decision.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Turkish Central Bank raising interest rates at its June meeting to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, but it might be too high given the uncertainty surrounding the central bank's decision. The base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of the central bank raising interest rates in any given month) is likely low, as the central bank has been relatively dovish in recent months. Therefore, the initial probability might be adjusted downward to reflect this.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Hakeem Jeffries receive the most votes in the first vote for the new Speaker of the House of Representatives after Kevin McCarthy's ousting, which is expected to occur before December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hakeem Jeffries receives the most votes in this vote. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If no vote for a new US Speaker of the House takes place by the specified deadline, the market will resolve 50-50.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is a weak reason and 5 is a strong reason):
- The Republican Party holds a slim majority in the House of Representatives, which might lead to a more conservative candidate being chosen as Speaker. (Strength: 3)
- Hakeem Jeffries is a Democrat, and the Republican Party might not want to give the Speaker position to a member of the opposing party. (Strength: 4)
- There are other potential Republican candidates who could receive more votes than Hakeem Jeffries in the first round. (Strength: 2)
- The House of Representatives is known for its unpredictability and factionalism, which could lead to an unexpected outcome. (Strength: 4)
- Hakeem Jeffries might not have the necessary support or consensus among his own party members to secure the most votes. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is a weak reason and 5 is a strong reason):
- Hakeem Jeffries is the House Minority Leader, which could give him a strong advantage in securing votes from his party members. (Strength: 5)
- As the leader of the minority party, Jeffries might have a strong network and relationships within the House that could help him secure votes. (Strength: 4)
- The Democratic Party is likely to unite behind a single candidate, increasing the chances of Jeffries receiving the most votes. (Strength: 4)
- Hakeem Jeffries has been a prominent figure in the Democratic Party and has experience working with various factions within the party. (Strength: 3)
- The current situation in the House of Representatives is highly fluid, and Jeffries might be able to capitalize on the uncertainty and divisions within the Republican Party. (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against, it seems that the balance of power and the fluid situation in the House of Representatives make it difficult to predict the outcome with certainty. However, the fact that Hakeem Jeffries is the House Minority Leader and has experience working with various factions within the Democratic Party gives him a strong advantage. The unpredictability of the House and the potential divisions within the Republican Party also make it possible for Jeffries to receive the most votes.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Hakeem Jeffries receiving the most votes in the first vote for the new Speaker of the House to be around 40%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems to be on the lower side, considering the advantages that Hakeem Jeffries has as the House Minority Leader. However, the unpredictability of the House and the potential divisions within the Republican Party make it difficult to assign a high probability to any outcome. The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a Democrat being chosen as Speaker in a Republican-majority House) is relatively low, which should be taken into account when evaluating the probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Moriah Mills publish a sex tape featuring Zion Williamson on or before July 1, 2023, 12:59:59 PM ET? The primary resolution source for this market will be credible reporting about a video posted by Moriah Mills on any platform. This question will resolve based on the release of a sex tape that includes Zion Williamson, regardless of whether the tape is authentic or leaked.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- Zion Williamson's team and management may have taken proactive measures to prevent such a leak, potentially reducing the likelihood of a sex tape being released. (Strength: 4)
- Moriah Mills may not have a motive to release the tape, as she could be using the rumors to her advantage without actually releasing the content. (Strength: 3)
- The lack of credible reports or hints about a sex tape suggests that there may not be any evidence or plans to release one. (Strength: 4)
- The consequences of releasing a sex tape could be severe for both Moriah Mills and Zion Williamson, potentially deterring her from making such a move. (Strength: 5)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The rumors and speculation surrounding a sex tape featuring Zion Williamson may have already created a significant amount of attention and interest, potentially motivating Moriah Mills to capitalize on the situation. (Strength: 4)
- The possibility of a large payout or other benefits from releasing the tape could be a strong incentive for Moriah Mills. (Strength: 5)
- The increasing prevalence of celebrity sex tapes and leaks in the media may make it more likely that a tape is released. (Strength: 3)
- Moriah Mills may not have a strong reason to keep the tape private, as it could be used to her advantage in various ways. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the strength of the "no" arguments seems slightly higher due to the potential consequences for both parties involved and the lack of credible reports or hints about the tape. However, the potential benefits and motivations for Moriah Mills to release the tape should not be underestimated.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations, I would estimate the probability of Moriah Mills releasing a sex tape featuring Zion Williamson to be around 40%.

6. Evaluation and refinement of the probability:
Upon further consideration, the base rate of celebrity sex tape leaks is relatively high, which could make this event more likely. However, the specific circumstances and potential consequences for both parties involved may still mitigate the likelihood. The initial probability of 40% may be slightly too high, considering the potential risks and consequences. A more cautious approach would be to adjust the probability downward.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a hostage deal be successfully brokered with Hamas for the release of one or more hostages currently held by Hamas by November 1, 2023, as reported by credible sources or confirmed by the respective governments of the hostages? This question will resolve to "Yes" if such a deal is brokered and to "No" if no deal is brokered by the resolution date.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Hamas's history of resisting negotiations and demands for concessions (Strength: 4) 
- The complexity of negotiations involving Hamas, which may involve multiple parties and conflicting interests (Strength: 4)
- The ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which could hinder diplomatic efforts (Strength: 5)
- The potential for extremist elements within Hamas to reject any deal (Strength: 3)
- The lack of a clear, unified Israeli government stance on negotiations with Hamas (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- International pressure from the United States, the European Union, and other countries to resolve the hostage situation (Strength: 4)
- The humanitarian aspect of the hostage situation, which could motivate parties to find a resolution (Strength: 4)
- The potential for a deal to be brokered through backchannel negotiations or third-party mediators (Strength: 3)
- The possibility of Hamas releasing hostages as a goodwill gesture or to improve its image (Strength: 2)
- The presence of previous instances of hostage releases negotiated with Hamas (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The aggregated considerations are a balance of the reasons for a "yes" and "no" outcome. The strong reasons for a "no" outcome include the complexity of negotiations and the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which could hinder diplomatic efforts. However, the international pressure and humanitarian aspect of the hostage situation could motivate parties to find a resolution. The presence of previous instances of hostage releases negotiated with Hamas also suggests that a deal is possible.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate a 30% probability of a successful hostage deal being brokered with Hamas by November 1, 2023.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively cautious, considering the potential for international pressure and humanitarian motivations to drive a resolution. However, the complexity of negotiations and the ongoing conflict should not be underestimated. The base rate of successful hostage deals with Hamas is not well-defined, but previous instances suggest that it is possible, albeit challenging. The initial probability may be slightly underconfident, given the potential for a breakthrough in negotiations.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will 'Meg 2: The Trench' (2023) gross more than $23,500,000 domestically on its 3-day opening weekend (August 4-6, 2023)? The domestic opening weekend box office earnings will be determined by the final numbers provided on Box Office Mojo under the "Domestic Weekend" tab for the specified weekend. If the final data is not available by August 14th, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible source will be used to resolve this question.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- The 'Meg' franchise has not seen significant growth in box office earnings for its sequels, which might indicate a decline in interest or audience appeal (Strength: 6/10)
- The film's marketing campaign might not have been effective in generating sufficient buzz or excitement among potential viewers (Strength: 5/10)
- The opening weekend might be affected by the release of other competing movies or events (Strength: 4/10)
- The film's budget and production values might not have been sufficient to generate a strong opening weekend (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- The 'Meg' franchise has a built-in audience and a recognizable brand, which could lead to a strong opening weekend (Strength: 8/10)
- The film's marketing campaign might have effectively targeted the core audience and generated sufficient interest (Strength: 7/10)
- The opening weekend might be boosted by positive word-of-mouth and social media buzz (Strength: 6/10)
- The film's production values and special effects might have been improved, leading to a more engaging cinematic experience (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the points above, it seems that the reasons for a strong opening weekend are more substantial than those for a weak one. However, the factors influencing the box office performance are complex and unpredictable, making it challenging to predict the outcome with certainty.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of 'Meg 2: The Trench' grossing over $23,500,000 on its opening weekend to be around 62%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, given the mixed factors influencing the box office performance. However, it might be slightly too confident, as the reasons for a weak opening weekend are not entirely negligible. Considering the base rate of films grossing over $23.5 million on their opening weekend, it's not extremely rare, but it's also not a guaranteed outcome. A more conservative approach might be warranted.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the JN.1 variant of SARS-CoV-2 be responsible for the most COVID-19 cases by proportion in the United States, according to the CDC's Nowcast Estimates in the US, as of December 23, 2023? This question will be resolved based on the initial information released by the CDC on or before December 23, 2023, regardless of any later updates. If the CDC stops reporting COVID-19 figures or ceases to use the Nowcast before the end of this market, the resolution will be a 50-50 outcome.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

* The JN.1 variant may not have reached the peak of its transmission rate in the US, and other variants might still be more prevalent (Strength: 6/10).
* The US might have implemented effective public health measures or vaccination campaigns that reduce the spread of the JN.1 variant (Strength: 5/10).
* Other variants, such as XBB or XBB.1.5, might be more contagious or have a higher reproduction number than JN.1, making them more dominant (Strength: 7/10).
* The CDC's Nowcast Estimates might not accurately reflect the actual prevalence of the JN.1 variant due to delays or limitations in data collection (Strength: 4/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

* The JN.1 variant has been spreading rapidly in several countries, including the US, and its high transmissibility might lead to a higher proportion of cases (Strength: 8/10).
* The JN.1 variant might have a growth advantage over other variants, allowing it to become the most prevalent (Strength: 7/10).
* The CDC's Nowcast Estimates have consistently shown the JN.1 variant as one of the top variants in recent weeks, indicating its increasing presence (Strength: 6/10).
* The JN.1 variant might have a higher affinity for the human receptor, ACE2, which could contribute to its higher transmissibility (Strength: 5/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the balance of evidence suggests that the JN.1 variant might have a higher chance of becoming the most prevalent in the US. However, there are still uncertainties and factors that could influence the outcome. The high transmissibility of the JN.1 variant and its recent spread in several countries are significant advantages, while the potential limitations of the CDC's Nowcast Estimates and the emergence of other variants are concerns.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of the JN.1 variant being the most prevalent in the US as of December 23, 2023, to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, considering the available information. However, it might be slightly too confident, given the uncertainties and potential limitations in the data. The base rate of the event is also unknown, but it's likely that the JN.1 variant will become one of the top variants in the US, given its recent spread.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a clear and original picture or video of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift in close physical proximity be made public between September 25, 12:00 PM ET and October 31, 11:59 PM ET, as verified by credible reporting and/or the representatives of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Strength: 8/10
Reason: Travis Kelce is an NFL player and Taylor Swift is a global pop star with busy schedules, making it less likely for them to have a chance encounter or a planned event together within the given timeframe.
- Strength: 6/10
Reason: The NFL season is in full swing during the given timeframe, and Travis Kelce's schedule might be filled with games, practices, and other football-related activities, making it difficult for him to have time for a public appearance with Taylor Swift.
- Strength: 5/10
Reason: Taylor Swift is known for her private life, and she might not publicly engage in activities that could be seen as a publicity stunt or an attempt to attract media attention, which could reduce the likelihood of her being seen with Travis Kelce in public.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Strength: 9/10
Reason: Travis Kelce is a celebrity in his own right, and his friendship with Taylor Swift has been publicly acknowledged in the past, which increases the likelihood of them being seen together in public.
- Strength: 7/10
Reason: Taylor Swift is known for her love of music and entertainment, and Travis Kelce has been involved in various charity events and activities, which could provide opportunities for them to meet and be seen together in public.
- Strength: 6/10
Reason: The given timeframe includes several major music festivals and events, which could provide a platform for Taylor Swift to attend and potentially be seen with Travis Kelce.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Taking into account the reasons provided, it seems that the likelihood of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift being seen together in public within the given timeframe is relatively high, given their publicized friendship and the potential opportunities for them to attend events together. However, their busy schedules and Taylor Swift's private nature might reduce the likelihood.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be around 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, considering the factors mentioned. However, it might be slightly too high, given the busy schedules of both individuals and Taylor Swift's private nature. A more conservative estimate might be warranted.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the US government implement a formal prohibition, restriction, or suspension of travel to China for non-US citizens, non-permanent residents, or all people, regardless of citizenship, at any point between December 3 and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET?

This question considers a travel ban as a formal announcement by the US government, which may include restrictions on travel due to health concerns, security threats, or other reasons. The resolution will be based on official information from the US government, with credible reporting serving as a secondary source.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* The US government has not imposed a travel ban on China in recent years, despite various global health concerns (Strength: 4). This suggests a pattern of not taking such drastic measures without significant justification.
* The US and China have maintained diplomatic relations, and a travel ban would likely be a significant escalation (Strength: 4).
* The US has not implemented travel restrictions on China in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has affected the country significantly (Strength: 4).
* The US government might be hesitant to impose a travel ban due to economic and trade concerns, as China is a significant trade partner (Strength: 3).
* The US has not issued travel warnings or advisories for China in the past few months, which could indicate a lack of immediate concern (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and its variants could lead to a reevaluation of travel restrictions, especially if the situation worsens (Strength: 5).
* The US has imposed travel restrictions on other countries in response to health concerns, and China has seen recent outbreaks (Strength: 4).
* Tensions between the US and China have been escalating, which could lead to increased scrutiny and potential travel restrictions (Strength: 4).
* The US government has the authority to impose travel restrictions under various circumstances, including national security concerns (Strength: 3).
* China's human rights record and treatment of Uyghur Muslims have been a point of contention, which could lead to increased scrutiny and potential travel restrictions (Strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the points above, the likelihood of a US travel ban on China seems low, given the lack of recent restrictions and the ongoing diplomatic relations. However, the ongoing pandemic and escalating tensions between the US and China create a possibility for a ban. The strength of the reasons for a ban (Strength: 4-5) is higher than the reasons against it (Strength: 2-4), indicating a moderate likelihood.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation:
The initial probability of 40 seems reasonable, considering the points above. However, it might be on the lower end, given the ongoing pandemic and tensions between the US and China. The base rate of the event (i.e., the frequency of travel bans imposed by the US government) is relatively low, which might affect the confidence in the prediction. Additionally, the US government's recent actions on travel restrictions might influence the likelihood of a ban.

7. Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will MEXC become insolvent by July 3, 2023, or will it suspend withdrawals for a majority of users for at least 3 full days (72 hours) in a row for BTC and/or ETH by July 3, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, as announced by official MEXC information, representatives, or credible reporting?

Reasons why the answer might be "No" (rated from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

1. MEXC has a history of operating and maintaining its services (strength: 6) - As a well-established cryptocurrency exchange, MEXC has likely developed robust systems and procedures to manage its finances and operations.
2. No prior announcements of insolvency or significant financial difficulties (strength: 8) - There is no public information available indicating that MEXC is facing financial difficulties or insolvency.
3. Ongoing business operations (strength: 5) - MEXC continues to operate and provide services, which suggests that it has the resources to do so.
4. Regulatory compliance (strength: 7) - As a regulated entity, MEXC is likely to maintain compliance with relevant laws and regulations, which would help prevent insolvency.

Reasons why the answer might be "Yes" (rated from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

1. Cryptocurrency market volatility and regulatory risks (strength: 9) - The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and regulatory changes can significantly impact exchanges like MEXC.
2. History of exchange hacks and security breaches (strength: 6) - MEXC has experienced security issues in the past, which could lead to financial difficulties.
3. Global economic uncertainty (strength: 8) - The current economic environment is uncertain, and MEXC may face challenges in managing its finances.
4. Competition and market pressure (strength: 5) - MEXC operates in a competitive market, and decreased market share or revenue could lead to financial difficulties.

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the factors above, the likelihood of MEXC becoming insolvent or suspending withdrawals for a majority of users seems relatively low. While there are potential risks, the exchange's history of operation, regulatory compliance, and ongoing business activities suggest that it has the capacity to manage its finances. However, the cryptocurrency market's volatility and regulatory risks cannot be ignored, and MEXC's past security issues and global economic uncertainty may pose challenges.

Initial probability: 20

Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 20 seems too low, as it does not accurately reflect the potential risks associated with the cryptocurrency market and MEXC's specific situation. A more cautious approach is warranted, considering the exchange's history and the current market environment.

Final prediction: *0.40*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2023 Argentine general election, scheduled to take place on October 22, 2023? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Patricia Bullrich wins the election in the first or second round. The market will resolve based on official information from the Argentine government or a consensus of credible reporting. If the election result is not known by June 30, 2024, the market will resolve to 50-50.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- Patricia Bullrich is a member of the Republican Proposal party, which might not be as popular as other parties in Argentina, especially considering the country's economic and social challenges (strength: 4).
- Argentina has a history of political polarization, and Bullrich's right-wing stance might not appeal to the majority of voters (strength: 4).
- The current economic situation in Argentina, including high inflation and unemployment, might affect the popularity of the current government and its potential candidates, including Bullrich (strength: 5).
- Patricia Bullrich has been involved in controversies in the past, which might negatively impact her chances of winning the election (strength: 3).
- The Argentine presidential election is highly competitive, and other candidates, such as Alberto Fernández, might have a stronger chance of winning (strength: 4).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- Patricia Bullrich has experience in politics, serving as the Minister of Security and a member of the National Congress, which might give her an advantage in the election (strength: 4).
- The Republican Proposal party has been gaining popularity in Argentina, and Bullrich might benefit from this trend (strength: 3).
- Bullrich has a strong stance on security issues, which is a critical concern for many Argentines, and this might appeal to voters (strength: 4).
- She has a strong social media presence and is known for her effective communication skills, which could help her connect with voters (strength: 3).
- The current economic situation in Argentina might create an opportunity for a new leader to emerge, and Bullrich might be a viable option for those seeking change (strength: 4).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the factors mentioned above, it seems that Patricia Bullrich faces significant challenges, including the current economic situation, her party's popularity, and the competitiveness of the election. However, she also has some advantages, such as her experience in politics and her strong stance on security issues. Based on these factors, I would rate the likelihood of her winning the election as moderate.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of Patricia Bullrich winning the election as 30.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 30 seems relatively low, considering that Bullrich has some advantages and a strong social media presence. However, the current economic situation and the competitiveness of the election might still give her a disadvantage. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of a candidate winning an election), which is typically around 50%, the initial probability seems reasonable.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Kari Lake be elected as the next Speaker of the House of Representatives after Kevin McCarthy's ousting on October 3, 2023, by the end of June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, considering only permanent and elected Speakers, and excluding temporary or unelected Speakers like Speaker Pro Tempore?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Party dynamics and leadership struggles** (Strength: 6/10): The Republican Party has been plagued by internal conflicts and leadership struggles, which could make it challenging for Kari Lake to secure the necessary votes to become Speaker. 
- **Reason 2: Alternative candidates and alliances** (Strength: 7/10): Other Republican members might form alliances or run against Kari Lake, potentially weakening her chances of becoming Speaker.
- **Reason 3: Changing party dynamics and shifting loyalties** (Strength: 5/10): The Republican Party's dynamics could change over time, potentially leading to shifting loyalties and a loss of support for Kari Lake.
- **Reason 4: External factors and events** (Strength: 4/10): External events or factors, such as a significant scandal or a major shift in public opinion, could impact the Republican Party's dynamics and affect Kari Lake's chances.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Kari Lake's popularity and conservative base** (Strength: 8/10): Kari Lake has a strong conservative base and has been a popular figure among some Republican voters, which could help her secure the necessary votes to become Speaker.
- **Reason 2: Republican Party's desire for a strong leader** (Strength: 7/10): The Republican Party might see Kari Lake as a strong leader who can unite the party and help them achieve their goals, increasing her chances of becoming Speaker.
- **Reason 3: Limited alternative candidates** (Strength: 6/10): The Republican Party might not have strong alternative candidates, making Kari Lake a more viable option for Speaker.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no outcome, it seems that Kari Lake faces significant challenges in becoming the next Speaker of the House. However, her popularity and conservative base could give her an advantage. The Republican Party's dynamics and leadership struggles also play a crucial role in determining her chances.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Kari Lake becoming the next Speaker of the House as 25%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems to be relatively low, which might be due to the many challenges and uncertainties surrounding Kari Lake's chances. However, considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of any Republican becoming Speaker), it might be worth revising the probability upwards.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a team from a minor region (defined as Latin America, Southeast Asia, Japan, Oceania, Turkey, the Commonwealth of Independent States, and Brazil) win the 1st place title in the League of Legends 2023 Season World Championship (Worlds 2023), which is scheduled to take place between October 5, 2023, and November 11, 2023? This market will resolve to "Yes" if a team from a minor region wins the championship, and "No" otherwise. If the winner is not determined by December 31, 2023 ET, the market will resolve to a 50-50 probability.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Historical dominance of top regions**: Historically, teams from the top regions (LCK, LPL, LCS, and LEC) have dominated the League of Legends World Championship. This suggests that teams from minor regions might face a significant disadvantage in terms of experience, skill, and resources. Strength: 8/10
- **Reason 2: Limited resources**: Teams from minor regions often have limited resources, which can make it difficult for them to compete with the top teams. This can affect their ability to attract and retain top talent, invest in team operations, and participate in high-level tournaments. Strength: 7.5/10
- **Reason 3: Lack of experience in high-level competitions**: Teams from minor regions might not have as much experience competing in high-level tournaments, which can make it challenging for them to adapt to the pressure and intensity of the World Championship. Strength: 6.5/10
- **Reason 4: Limited access to top players**: Minor region teams might not have the same access to top players, which can affect their overall team strength and competitiveness. Strength: 7/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Upset potential**: Upsets can occur in any tournament, and teams from minor regions have the potential to cause significant upsets if they can execute their strategies well and take advantage of their opponents' weaknesses. Strength: 8/10
- **Reason 2: Recent successes of minor region teams**: In recent years, teams from minor regions have shown that they can compete with top teams, and some have even won international tournaments. This suggests that the gap between minor and top regions is narrowing. Strength: 8.5/10
- **Reason 3: Innovative strategies and team compositions**: Teams from minor regions might have unique strategies and team compositions that can be effective against top teams. Strength: 7/10
- **Reason 4: Potential for underdog mentality**: Teams from minor regions often have an underdog mentality, which can give them an edge in terms of motivation and determination. Strength: 6/10

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the historical dominance of top regions, limited resources, and lack of experience, the initial inclination is to believe that the answer is no. However, the potential for upsets, recent successes of minor region teams, innovative strategies, and underdog mentality suggest that there is a possibility of a minor region team winning. The aggregated consideration is that while there are valid reasons to believe that a minor region team can win, the historical context and structural advantages of top regions make it less likely.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, the initial probability is 20.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability might be considered not confident enough, given the recent successes of minor region teams and the potential for upsets. However, the historical context and structural advantages of top regions suggest that the probability should not be too high. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the frequency of minor region teams winning the World Championship), it is relatively low.

7. Final prediction:
*0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the 2023 film "Insidious: The Red Door" gross more than $26.5 million on its 3-day opening weekend in the domestic market, as reported by Box Office Mojo, considering the opening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of the film's release, and the market will resolve based on the final domestic weekend box office numbers, not studio estimates? If there is no final data available by July 17, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Reasons why the answer might be no:
1. The film might not have a strong marketing campaign or sufficient advertising budget, which could lead to lower box office performance (Strength: 4/10). 
2. The film's genre (horror) might not be as popular as it was in previous years, potentially affecting its box office performance (Strength: 5/10).
3. The film might face competition from other movies or events that could draw audiences away from it (Strength: 6/10).
4. The film's budget might be high, which could make it difficult for it to turn a profit if it doesn't gross a significant amount at the box office (Strength: 7/10).

Reasons why the answer might be yes:
1. The "Insidious" franchise has a dedicated fan base and a history of performing well at the box office (Strength: 8/10).
2. Horror movies often perform well in the summer months, and July is a good time for horror releases (Strength: 7/10).
3. The film's marketing campaign might be strong, generating interest and excitement among potential viewers (Strength: 6/10).
4. The film's release date might coincide with a lull in other major movie releases, giving it a clearer path to box office success (Strength: 5/10).

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the factors mentioned above, it seems that the reasons for a "yes" answer are stronger than those for a "no" answer. The "Insidious" franchise has a dedicated fan base, and horror movies often perform well in the summer. However, there are also potential risks, such as a weak marketing campaign, competition from other movies, and a high budget.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively cautious, given the factors mentioned above. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event (i.e., how often movies gross more than $26.5 million on their opening weekend). Horror movies often perform well, and the "Insidious" franchise has a dedicated fan base, which might make it more likely to meet this threshold.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Joe Biden's approval rating, as reported by FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator on January 7, 2024, be greater than 39.5%? This question will be resolved based on the green trend line approval rating for the specified date, considering any changes in methodology by FiveThirtyEight will not affect the resolution. The resolution will be based on the available data for January 7, or the nearest previous approval rating if no January 7 data is available by January 10, 2024, at 11:59:59 PM ET. The approval rating is reported to one decimal point, so this precision will be used when resolving the market. The question will not be resolved until the January 8 datapoint is available, or until January 10, 2024, if no January 7 data is available.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reason 1: Joe Biden's approval ratings have been trending downwards in recent months, which might indicate a decline in public support. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 2: The US economy has been experiencing inflation and recession concerns, which can negatively impact presidential approval ratings. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 3: There might be ongoing controversies or issues that could lead to a decrease in Biden's approval rating. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Reason 1: Despite the current economic challenges, Biden's administration has implemented policies aimed at addressing inflation and supporting the economy, which could lead to an increase in approval ratings. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: The approval ratings can be volatile and subject to short-term fluctuations, so a slight increase is possible. (Strength: 4/10)
- Reason 3: The US public might be more focused on other issues, such as social justice or foreign policy, which could lead to a higher approval rating for Biden. (Strength: 3/10)

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the reasons provided, the current trend of declining approval ratings and economic concerns are the most significant factors. However, the administration's policies and short-term fluctuations in public opinion could lead to a slight increase in approval ratings. The strength of the reasons for a no answer is higher, but a small chance of a yes answer exists.

5. Initial probability: Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate an initial probability of 25% for the answer being yes.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability: The calculated probability seems relatively low, considering the current trend of declining approval ratings. However, the factors that could lead to an increase in approval ratings, such as the administration's policies and short-term fluctuations, should not be entirely disregarded. The base rate of the event (i.e., the general trend of presidential approval ratings) should also be considered, which might be around 50% or lower for a specific rating to be above 39.5%. The calculated probability might be too low, considering these factors.

7. Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) name 21 or more storms during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30? This prediction is based on NOAA's official list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (XXXX), including storms that form before the designated period but remain active during it. The resolution criteria for this market will be the official count of named storms by NOAA, and it will only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2023, at 11:59:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not occurred before then.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-10, where 1 is a weak reason and 10 is a strong reason):

- **Reason 1: Historical averages**: The Atlantic hurricane season has averaged around 14 named storms over the past 30 years, which is below the 21-storm threshold. (Strength: 6)
- **Reason 2: Neutral El Niño conditions**: Neutral El Niño conditions are expected for the 2023 hurricane season, which might lead to a less active season. (Strength: 5)
- **Reason 3: Cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures**: Some climate models predict cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, which could reduce the number of named storms. (Strength: 4)
- **Reason 4: Increased wind shear**: Higher wind shear in the Atlantic might make it more difficult for storms to develop and strengthen. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-10, where 1 is a weak reason and 10 is a strong reason):

- **Reason 1: Above-average sea surface temperatures**: Some climate models predict above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, which could lead to a more active season. (Strength: 9)
- **Reason 2: Weaker-than-average wind shear**: Lower wind shear in the Atlantic might make it easier for storms to develop and strengthen. (Strength: 8)
- **Reason 3: Increased atmospheric moisture**: Higher atmospheric moisture in the Atlantic could lead to more intense and frequent storms. (Strength: 7)
- **Reason 4: Recent trends**: The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season saw 14 named storms, and some climate models predict a continuation of this trend. (Strength: 6)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I weigh the pros and cons of the situation. The above-average sea surface temperatures and weaker-than-average wind shear are strong indicators of a more active season, while the historical averages, neutral El Niño conditions, cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures, and increased wind shear are indicators of a less active season. Given the strength of these factors, I lean towards a more active season.

5. Initial probability:
Based on my aggregated considerations, I predict a 65% chance that NOAA will name 21 or more storms during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon further reflection, I realize that my initial probability might be overly confident. The Atlantic hurricane season is inherently unpredictable, and the factors influencing it are complex and interconnected. I should consider the base rate of the event, which is around 50% (historical average). This means that my initial probability should be adjusted downward to account for the uncertainty and unpredictability of the season.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the above factors, I adjust my initial probability to a more conservative 55%. Therefore, my final prediction is: *0.55*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will "Trump" or "trump" be said at least once by every single candidate participating in the 4th RNC primary debate scheduled for December 6, 2023? The resolution source will be live video of the debate, and in case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered. The market will resolve to "Yes" if the condition is met, and to "No" if any candidate does not mention "Trump" or "trump" during the debate. If the debate is cancelled or delayed beyond December 12, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No."

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- Some candidates might not be aware of the market or the attention it is receiving, and therefore might not mention "Trump" to attract attention or appease the market. (Strength: 3/10)
- A few candidates might be so focused on their own policies or other issues that they might not mention "Trump" at all during the debate. (Strength: 6/10)
- The debate might be structured in a way that does not allow for a lot of back-and-forth between candidates, reducing the chances of "Trump" being mentioned. (Strength: 5/10)
- Some candidates might be trying to avoid controversy or polarizing topics, and therefore might not mention "Trump" to maintain a more neutral stance. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- The debate is likely to be heavily focused on the current political climate and the influence of former President Trump, making it more likely that candidates will mention "Trump" in their statements. (Strength: 8/10)
- Many candidates have already mentioned "Trump" in previous debates or public statements, suggesting that it is a topic they are comfortable discussing. (Strength: 7/10)
- The market's existence might actually encourage candidates to mention "Trump" more often, as they might try to capitalize on the attention and controversy surrounding it. (Strength: 6/10)
- The debate format might be structured in a way that encourages candidates to engage with each other and respond to their opponents' statements, increasing the chances of "Trump" being mentioned. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the above points, it seems that the reasons in favor of "yes" are stronger than those in favor of "no". The debate's focus on the current political climate and the candidates' previous willingness to discuss "Trump" suggest that it is likely that every candidate will mention "Trump" at least once during the debate.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be 85.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
Upon further consideration, I realize that the initial probability might be too high. While the reasons in favor of "yes" are strong, the reasons in favor of "no" should not be entirely dismissed. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of every candidate mentioning "Trump" during a debate) is difficult to estimate, but it is likely to be relatively low. Therefore, I should be less confident in my initial probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.6*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will 'Oppenheimer' (2023) gross more than $50 million domestically on its second weekend, spanning from July 28 to July 30, 2023? This prediction will be resolved once the final box office data for each day of the second weekend is available on the 'Domestic Daily' tab of XXXX. If there is no final data available by August 7, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength of each reason in parentheses):
- The movie 'Oppenheimer' is a biographical drama with a complex and potentially niche subject matter, which might limit its appeal to a broader audience (6/10).
- The film received a PG-13 rating, which might not be as attractive to some viewers who prefer more mature content (5/10).
- The movie's runtime is around 3 hours, which could deter some viewers who prefer shorter films (4/10).
- The movie's competition in the same weekend might be strong, potentially drawing viewers away from 'Oppenheimer' (7/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength of each reason in parentheses):
- The film has received widespread critical acclaim, which can lead to positive word-of-mouth and higher box office earnings (8/10).
- The movie has a strong marketing campaign and a well-known director, Christopher Nolan, which can attract a large audience (8/10).
- The film's subject matter, focusing on the life of J. Robert Oppenheimer, might appeal to fans of biographical dramas and history (6/10).
- The movie's runtime of 3 hours might be seen as an immersive experience by some viewers, potentially leading to higher engagement and positive reviews (5/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the factors pointing towards a lower box office performance ('Oppenheimer' being a biographical drama, PG-13 rating, long runtime, and competition) seem to have a moderate to strong impact. However, the positive factors (critical acclaim, strong marketing, and subject matter) also have a significant influence. To make a prediction, I will weigh these factors and consider the average performance of biographical dramas and Christopher Nolan's films.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I estimate the probability of 'Oppenheimer' grossing over $50 million on its second weekend to be around 60%. This is a moderate level of confidence, acknowledging the mixed factors at play.

6. Evaluation of confidence:
Upon reflection, I realize that my initial probability might be too high, considering the niche subject matter and potential competition. However, I also acknowledge that Christopher Nolan's films often perform well at the box office, and the critical acclaim might lead to positive word-of-mouth. To adjust my confidence level, I will consider the base rate of biographical dramas and Christopher Nolan's films, which tend to perform moderately well. This might suggest a lower confidence level.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Faze Banks' share price exceed 10 ETH at any point between August 21, 2023, and August 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, according to the friend.tech app or a consensus of credible sources?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-10, 1 being the weakest and 10 being the strongest):
- Faze Banks is a gaming organization and the cryptocurrency market can be highly volatile, but there's no clear indication that their share price would be significantly affected by external market fluctuations (Strength: 3)
- Faze Banks' share price might be influenced by factors such as their performance in gaming tournaments, partnerships, or sponsorships, but these factors might not necessarily drive their share price above 10 ETH (Strength: 4)
- The cryptocurrency market, particularly the price of Ethereum, might experience a downturn or a sharp decline, which could negatively impact Faze Banks' share price (Strength: 6)
- The current market conditions and the overall state of the gaming industry might not favor Faze Banks' growth, leading to a stagnant or declining share price (Strength: 5)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-10, 1 being the weakest and 10 being the strongest):
- Faze Banks has a strong reputation and following in the gaming community, which could contribute to a high share price (Strength: 7)
- The gaming industry is growing, and Faze Banks might be well-positioned to capitalize on this growth, leading to an increase in their share price (Strength: 8)
- Faze Banks might have strong partnerships or sponsorships that could drive their share price up (Strength: 6)
- The cryptocurrency market might experience a surge or a significant increase in the price of Ethereum, which could positively impact Faze Banks' share price (Strength: 9)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the factors favoring a yes answer have a slightly higher strength and number, but the reasons against a yes answer are still significant. The cryptocurrency market's volatility and potential downturn are significant concerns.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be around 60.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too optimistic given the concerns about the cryptocurrency market and Faze Banks' potential stagnation. The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a share price exceeding 10 ETH in a given month) is not explicitly stated, but it's likely low. This should be taken into account when refining the probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Sam Altman be fired as CEO of OpenAI due to a data leak or privacy issue by November 30, 2023, according to official information from OpenAI and/or Sam Altman, or a consensus of credible reporting? The resolution of this market will be based on evidence that definitively links his termination to a data leak or privacy issue. If no such evidence is released or reported by the given deadline, this market will resolve to "No".

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength ratings):

- Sam Altman's termination might be due to other reasons such as performance issues, disagreements with the board, or personal reasons, which are not related to data leaks or privacy issues (Strength: 6/10).
- The board might have been planning to replace Sam Altman as part of a larger strategic shift or restructuring, unrelated to any data leak or privacy issue (Strength: 5/10).
- OpenAI might not publicly disclose the reasons for Sam Altman's termination, and the actual cause might be unrelated to data leaks or privacy issues (Strength: 4/10).
- The company might have experienced a data leak or privacy issue, but it might not have been a significant enough reason for Sam Altman's termination (Strength: 3/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength ratings):

- Sam Altman has been involved in controversies and criticisms regarding data handling and AI safety, which might have led to his termination (Strength: 7/10).
- There have been reports of data leaks and security concerns at OpenAI in the past, which could have contributed to Sam Altman's termination (Strength: 6/10).
- Sam Altman's leadership style and decisions regarding data handling and AI development might have raised concerns among the board or investors, leading to his removal (Strength: 5/10).
- The recent rise of AI-related scandals and controversies might have led to increased scrutiny of OpenAI, resulting in Sam Altman's termination (Strength: 4/10).

4. Aggregated considerations: 
Taking into account the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that there are valid points on both sides. However, the reasons pointing towards a "yes" answer seem slightly more plausible, given Sam Altman's past controversies and OpenAI's past data leak issues.

5. Initial probability: 
Given the considerations above, I would initially estimate the probability of Sam Altman being fired due to a data leak or privacy issue to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of confidence and base rate: 
My initial probability might be considered relatively confident, but not excessively so. However, the base rate of CEOs being fired due to data leaks or privacy issues is relatively low, which might affect the overall probability. Considering this, I might adjust my initial probability downward.

7. Final prediction: 
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be directly referenced as the 2023 TIME Person of the Year, either alone or in conjunction with another person or thing, as announced by TIME magazine by January 15, 2024, or will the Person of the Year be announced after this date, resulting in a resolution of "No"?

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 6/10):
1. TIME magazine has a history of selecting a diverse range of individuals and groups as Person of the Year, and there is no guarantee that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be chosen. (Strength: 5/10)
2. The Person of the Year selection process involves a complex decision-making process involving the TIME editorial team, and it's possible that they might choose a different individual or group that they believe has had a more significant impact in 2023. (Strength: 6/10)
3. The war in Ukraine is a significant global issue, but there may be other individuals or events that TIME magazine considers more impactful or newsworthy in 2023. (Strength: 5/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 8/10):
1. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been a prominent figure in the global news landscape in 2023 due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, and his leadership and resilience have garnered international attention. (Strength: 8/10)
2. TIME magazine has a history of selecting leaders and individuals who have made significant contributions to global events, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy's leadership during the war in Ukraine could make him a strong candidate for Person of the Year. (Strength: 8/10)
3. The Person of the Year selection often recognizes individuals who have had a significant impact on the world in the past year, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy's efforts to lead Ukraine through a challenging time could make him a strong contender. (Strength: 7/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I believe that Volodymyr Zelenskyy has a strong chance of being selected as the 2023 TIME Person of the Year, but there are also valid reasons why he might not be chosen. The strength of the reasons for a "yes" answer outweigh the reasons for a "no" answer, but the uncertainty of the selection process and the diversity of past selections make it difficult to predict with certainty.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation:
My calculated probability of 60 seems reasonable given the considerations above, but it might be slightly too confident. The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of any person being selected as Person of the Year) is relatively low, and there are many factors that could influence the selection process. To account for this uncertainty, I might reduce my probability slightly.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Claudine Gay cease to be the President of Harvard University for any length of time from December 19, 2023, through March 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET? If Claudine Gay announces her resignation before this market's end date, it will immediately resolve the market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation goes into effect. The resolution source will be official statements from Harvard University or a consensus of credible reporting.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Claudine Gay has been serving as the President of Harvard University since July 2023, and there is no public information about her plans to step down (Strength: 3).
- Harvard University has not made any public announcements about Claudine Gay's resignation or retirement (Strength: 4).
- Claudine Gay has not been involved in any high-profile controversies or scandals that might lead to her resignation (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Claudine Gay has been serving in an acting capacity, and her appointment might be subject to review or change (Strength: 2).
- Harvard University has a history of having short-term presidents, and Claudine Gay's tenure might be subject to evaluation and potential change (Strength: 3).
- There might be internal conflicts or disagreements within Harvard University that could lead to Claudine Gay's resignation (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the available information, Claudine Gay's continued service as the President of Harvard University seems likely. However, there are some potential factors that could lead to her resignation. The strength of the "no" reasons seems to outweigh the strength of the "yes" reasons, but it is essential to consider the base rate of presidential changes and the potential for unexpected events.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Claudine Gay ceasing to be the President of Harvard University from December 19, 2023, through March 31, 2024, as 20.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 20 seems relatively low, considering the potential for unexpected events or internal conflicts within Harvard University. However, without more information, it is challenging to assign a higher probability. The base rate of presidential changes is relatively low, but it is essential to consider the specific context of Claudine Gay's tenure.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Volodymyr Zelensky physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of Israel between November 3 and November 10, 11:59 PM IST? This market resolves to "Yes" if Zelensky enters Israel during this timeframe, as confirmed by official information from Zelensky, Ukraine, Israel, or credible reporting. A "visit" is defined as Zelensky's physical presence within Israel's borders or territorial waters, regardless of whether he enters Israeli airspace.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-10 for strength):

- **Reason 1: Logistical challenges**: Zelensky might face difficulties in planning and executing a visit to Israel due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, potential security concerns, or scheduling conflicts. (Strength: 6)
- **Reason 2: Diplomatic tensions**: There might be ongoing diplomatic tensions between Ukraine and Israel, making a visit less likely or even impossible. (Strength: 4)
- **Reason 3: Zelensky's schedule**: Zelensky's schedule might be too busy with other international engagements or domestic matters to allow for a visit to Israel. (Strength: 5)
- **Reason 4: Personal reasons**: Zelensky might have personal reasons for not wanting to visit Israel, such as health concerns or family obligations. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-10 for strength):

- **Reason 1: Diplomatic efforts**: Zelensky and Israeli leaders might be engaging in diplomatic efforts to strengthen ties between their countries, making a visit more likely. (Strength: 8)
- **Reason 2: International support**: Israel has been a vocal supporter of Ukraine, and a visit could be a gesture of appreciation for this support. (Strength: 7)
- **Reason 3: Symbolic significance**: A visit to Israel could be a symbolic gesture of Ukraine's commitment to international cooperation and friendship. (Strength: 6)
- **Reason 4: Previous visits**: Zelensky has visited other countries recently, indicating a willingness to engage in international diplomacy. (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons provided, the likelihood of Zelensky visiting Israel between November 3 and November 10 seems to be influenced by a mix of diplomatic, logistical, and personal factors. While there are valid reasons for both a "yes" and "no" outcome, the strength of the reasons favoring a visit seems slightly higher.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Zelensky visiting Israel between November 3 and November 10 to be around 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the mix of factors at play. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as some of the reasons favoring a visit seem relatively strong. A more cautious approach might be warranted, taking into account the uncertainty surrounding Zelensky's schedule and potential diplomatic tensions.

7. Final prediction:

Considering the evaluation, I would slightly adjust the initial probability downward to reflect the uncertainty. The final prediction is: *0.55*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will WeWork announce that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by November 12, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, through an official or verified channel (e.g., their website newsroom, social media, or a statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other authorized individual or team)? The announcement itself is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the actual filing occurs, and can be supported by credible reporting.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No (Strength Rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong)**

1. WeWork has received a significant investment from SoftBank (Strength: 3) - In 2021, SoftBank invested $1 billion in WeWork, providing the company with a lifeline. This investment could potentially help WeWork avoid bankruptcy.
2. WeWork has been working to reduce its debt (Strength: 4) - WeWork has been taking steps to reduce its debt burden, which might give the company more time to recover and avoid bankruptcy.
3. WeWork has been restructuring its business (Strength: 4) - WeWork has been working to restructure its business, which could help the company become more financially stable and less likely to file for bankruptcy.
4. WeWork's financial situation might not be as dire as expected (Strength: 2) - While WeWork has faced significant financial challenges, its financial situation might not be as severe as initially thought, making bankruptcy less likely.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes (Strength Rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong)**

1. WeWork's financial struggles persist (Strength: 5) - WeWork has been facing significant financial challenges, including a large debt burden and declining revenue.
2. WeWork's business model has been criticized (Strength: 4) - WeWork's business model has been questioned, and the company has struggled to achieve profitability, making it more likely to file for bankruptcy.
3. WeWork's market value has declined significantly (Strength: 4) - WeWork's market value has declined significantly, indicating a lack of investor confidence in the company's prospects.
4. WeWork has faced regulatory scrutiny (Strength: 3) - WeWork has faced regulatory scrutiny, which could lead to further financial difficulties and increase the likelihood of bankruptcy.

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Considering the reasons above, I believe that WeWork's financial struggles, declining market value, and regulatory scrutiny make bankruptcy a plausible outcome. However, the investment from SoftBank and WeWork's efforts to reduce debt and restructure its business provide some reason to believe that bankruptcy might not be imminent.

**Initial Probability: 60**

**Evaluation of Confidence:**

My initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, given the mixed signals from WeWork's financial situation and efforts to recover. However, I might be underestimating the company's ability to avoid bankruptcy, given the significant investment from SoftBank and WeWork's restructuring efforts.

**Final Prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Tom Emmer be elected as the next US Speaker of the House after Kevin McCarthy's ousting on October 3, 2023, by the end of June 30, 2024? For the purpose of resolving this market, unelected or temporary Speakers, such as the Speaker Pro Tempore, will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, and a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. If a new US Speaker of the House is not elected by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- Tom Emmer might face opposition from a significant number of House Republicans, potentially leading to a prolonged or unsuccessful Speaker election process (strength: 4).
- Tom Emmer's conservative views might not align with a broad coalition of House Republicans and Democrats, making it difficult for him to secure the necessary votes (strength: 3).
- The House of Representatives might experience a leadership vacuum, with multiple candidates vying for the position, leading to a prolonged election process or no clear winner (strength: 5).
- The ongoing investigations and controversies surrounding House Republicans might create a toxic environment, making it challenging for Tom Emmer to secure the necessary votes (strength: 4).
- Tom Emmer's personal characteristics, experience, or past actions might be perceived as unfavorable by a significant number of House members, hindering his chances of becoming Speaker (strength: 3).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- Tom Emmer has been a prominent figure in the House of Representatives and has built relationships with his colleagues, which could aid him in securing the necessary votes (strength: 4).
- As a member of the House Republican leadership, Tom Emmer has experience navigating the complexities of House politics and might be well-positioned to secure the Speaker position (strength: 4).
- Tom Emmer's conservative views align closely with the majority of House Republicans, which could make it easier for him to secure their support (strength: 4).
- The House Republicans might coalesce around Tom Emmer as a consensus candidate, making it easier for him to secure the necessary votes (strength: 4).
- Tom Emmer's leadership style and personal characteristics might be perceived as favorable by a significant number of House members, increasing his chances of becoming Speaker (strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided above, I weigh the strengths of both the "yes" and "no" arguments. While there are valid concerns about Tom Emmer's potential opposition and the challenges he might face, his experience, relationships, and conservative views also provide a strong foundation for his potential success. I believe that Tom Emmer's chances of becoming Speaker are higher than those of a random House member, but the uncertainty surrounding the process and potential opposition cannot be ignored.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate Tom Emmer's chances of being elected as the next US Speaker of the House to be around 60%. This is a relatively cautious estimate, taking into account the potential challenges he might face.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 60% might be considered not confident enough, given the significance of the event and the potential consequences of the outcome. However, it's also essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is relatively low, as the Speaker of the House is a high-profile position that requires a significant amount of support from the House members. This might make it more challenging for Tom Emmer to secure the necessary votes.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the 2023 film adaptation of 'Five Nights at Freddy's' gross over $100 million in its opening weekend in the domestic market (typically including the USA, Canada, and possibly other countries) based on the final 3-day weekend box office numbers from Box Office Mojo, or another credible source if Box Office Mojo data is not available by November 6, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? The market will resolve to "Yes" if the film's domestic weekend box office gross exceeds $100 million; otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

1. **Competition from other Halloween releases**: With the release of 'Five Nights at Freddy's' coinciding with the Halloween season, other horror movies or family-friendly films might draw away some of the audience, potentially reducing the film's box office earnings. (Strength: 6)
2. **Mixed reviews and word-of-mouth**: If the film receives mixed or negative reviews from critics and audiences, it might lead to a lower box office performance. (Strength: 4)
3. **Limited brand recognition**: While 'Five Nights at Freddy's' has a dedicated fan base, its popularity might not translate to a broader audience, potentially limiting its box office potential. (Strength: 5)
4. **Budget and marketing constraints**: The film's production budget and marketing campaign might not be substantial enough to generate sufficient buzz and attract a large audience. (Strength: 3)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

1. **Strong brand recognition and fan base**: 'Five Nights at Freddy's' has a dedicated and passionate fan base, which could lead to a strong opening weekend. (Strength: 9)
2. **High demand for horror and family-friendly content**: The Halloween season and the film's appeal to both horror fans and families could create a high demand for the movie. (Strength: 8)
3. **Well-timed release**: The film's release date coincides with the Halloween season, which could lead to a strong opening weekend. (Strength: 7)
4. **Potential for positive word-of-mouth**: If the film receives positive reviews and audiences enjoy the movie, it could lead to a strong word-of-mouth campaign and increased box office earnings. (Strength: 6)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, the film's strong brand recognition and fan base, high demand for horror and family-friendly content, and well-timed release are significant factors in its favor. However, the competition from other Halloween releases, mixed reviews, limited brand recognition, and budget and marketing constraints might reduce its box office potential. Overall, the factors in favor of a strong opening weekend seem to outweigh those against it.

Initial probability: 62

Evaluation of confidence:
The initial probability of 62 seems relatively moderate, considering the factors in favor and against a strong opening weekend. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of films grossing over $100 million in their opening weekend, which is relatively high. This might suggest that the initial probability should be adjusted downward to account for the base rate.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will any federal or state jurisdiction in the United States announce a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump at least once before August 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, marking a third indictment in 2023? For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a state are considered part of a state. Official information from US governmental sources and a wide consensus of credible reporting will be used as the primary sources for resolution.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

- **Reason 1:** The likelihood of a third indictment within the given timeframe might be low due to the complexity and time-consuming nature of the legal process. The strength: 6/10.
- **Reason 2:** The current legal challenges and investigations against Trump are ongoing, and a new indictment might not be imminent. The strength: 7/10.
- **Reason 3:** The possibility of a third indictment is contingent on the outcome of ongoing investigations and potential appeals, which might not yield the desired results. The strength: 8/10.
- **Reason 4:** Trump's previous indictments have not led to a conviction, which might indicate that the prosecution faces significant challenges. The strength: 9/10.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

- **Reason 1:** The ongoing investigations and legal challenges against Trump might lead to new evidence that supports a third indictment. The strength: 5/10.
- **Reason 2:** The increasing scrutiny and public pressure on Trump and his associates might lead to a more aggressive prosecution. The strength: 6/10.
- **Reason 3:** The precedent set by previous indictments and the willingness of prosecutors to pursue high-profile cases might indicate a higher likelihood of a third indictment. The strength: 7/10.
- **Reason 4:** The possibility of a new indictment is not entirely ruled out, given the dynamic nature of ongoing investigations and the potential for new developments. The strength: 8/10.

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, the likelihood of a third indictment within the given timeframe appears to be moderate. The reasons for a "no" answer seem more substantial, with a higher strength rating. However, the ongoing investigations and the dynamic nature of the situation might still lead to new developments that support a "yes" answer.

5. Initial probability:

Given the considerations above, I would assign an initial probability of 40% to the answer being "yes."

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

The initial probability of 40% seems reasonable, given the moderate likelihood of a third indictment within the given timeframe. However, this probability might be too low, considering the ongoing investigations and the potential for new developments. It's also worth noting that the base rate of the event (a third indictment within a specific timeframe) is not explicitly known, which might affect the forecast.

7. Final prediction:

*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the discovery of LK99 as a room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor be replicated at least two times by independent researchers unaffiliated with the authors of the paper titled "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" (XXXX) by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, as verified by a consensus of credible sources and experts, and if not, will a publication of a replication result in a reputable journal by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes"?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 8/10**: Replication is a challenging and time-consuming process, and the scientific community might not be able to verify the findings within the given timeframe.
- **Strength: 6/10**: The authors of the original paper might have made an error in their experiment or analysis, and subsequent attempts to replicate the results might fail.
- **Strength: 4/10**: The discovery of a room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor would be a groundbreaking finding, and some researchers might be hesitant to replicate the results due to concerns about the potential implications and the pressure to publish high-impact research.
- **Strength: 3/10**: The scientific community might be skeptical about the results and require more evidence before accepting them as true.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 9/10**: The discovery of a room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor would be a significant breakthrough in materials science, and many researchers would be eager to verify the findings.
- **Strength: 7/10**: The scientific community has a history of verifying groundbreaking discoveries through replication, and this process is an essential part of the scientific method.
- **Strength: 5/10**: The authors of the original paper have likely taken steps to ensure the accuracy of their results, and their findings might be more robust than initially thought.

4. Aggregated considerations:
While there are valid reasons to be skeptical about the replication of the discovery, the scientific community's track record of verifying groundbreaking findings suggests that replication is likely to occur. However, the timeframe for replication and the potential for errors or skepticism in the community might impact the outcome.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable given the considerations above. However, it might be too low, as the discovery of a room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor would be a significant breakthrough, and the scientific community might be more likely to replicate the results than initially thought. Additionally, the base rate of groundbreaking discoveries in materials science is relatively low, which might suggest a higher probability of replication.

7. Final prediction: *0.70*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2023 US Open Men's Singles tournament, given that he will not be eliminated based on the rules of the US Open and that the final resolution source will be official information from the US Open or credible reporting? The market will resolve to "Yes" if Novak Djokovic wins the tournament, and it will resolve to "No" if it becomes impossible for him to win based on the US Open rules.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

* Reason 1: Injuries - Novak Djokovic has been prone to injuries throughout his career, and any significant injury could prevent him from participating in the tournament or hinder his performance. (Strength: 6/10)
* Reason 2: Competition from younger players - The men's tennis scene has seen a rise in talented young players, such as Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, who could potentially challenge Djokovic in the tournament. (Strength: 5/10)
* Reason 3: Fatigue - Novak Djokovic has been actively competing in various tournaments throughout the year, which could lead to fatigue and decreased performance in the US Open. (Strength: 4/10)
* Reason 4: Upset losses - Djokovic has experienced upset losses in the past, and it's possible that he could face an unexpected loss in the US Open. (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

* Reason 1: Djokovic's past performance - Novak Djokovic has a strong track record in the US Open, with multiple titles and consistent performances. (Strength: 8/10)
* Reason 2: Experience and adaptability - As one of the most experienced players in the world, Djokovic has demonstrated his ability to adapt to different surfaces and opponents, which could give him an edge in the US Open. (Strength: 7/10)
* Reason 3: Dominance in Grand Slams - Djokovic has been one of the most dominant players in Grand Slam tournaments, and his experience and skillset make him a strong contender for the US Open title. (Strength: 9/10)
* Reason 4: Recent form - Djokovic has been performing well in recent tournaments, which suggests that he is in good shape and ready for the US Open. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, it's clear that Djokovic's past performance, experience, and dominance in Grand Slams give him a significant advantage. However, the potential for injuries, competition from younger players, fatigue, and upset losses could still impact his chances. Overall, the balance of reasons suggests that Djokovic has a strong chance of winning the US Open.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Novak Djokovic winning the US Open at 70%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon re-evaluation, I consider that the initial probability might be too confident, given the potential risks and uncertainties mentioned earlier. The base rate of Djokovic winning the US Open is not explicitly stated, but considering the high level of competition in tennis, it's likely that the probability of any given player winning is relatively low. Additionally, the potential for unexpected events, such as injuries or upsets, could further reduce the probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) plead guilty to any charge by August 21, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US court system, and a consensus of credible reporting will also be used to verify the resolution. This question will resolve based on SBF's actions and any official statements or court documents confirming his guilty plea.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- SBF's defense team might be seeking a more favorable plea deal or trial date, which could delay a guilty plea until after August 21 (strength: 3).
- The complexity of the case might lead to a longer trial or more negotiations, potentially pushing a guilty plea beyond the specified deadline (strength: 4).
- SBF or his team might be trying to negotiate with the prosecution, which could result in a delay (strength: 3).
- The court might not be ready to accept a guilty plea by August 21 due to scheduling or other logistical reasons (strength: 2).
- SBF might not be willing to plead guilty at this time, choosing to contest the charges instead (strength: 4).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- SBF might be cooperating with the prosecution and seeking to plead guilty to reduce his sentence (strength: 5).
- The prosecution might be pushing for a quick resolution, which could result in a guilty plea by the deadline (strength: 4).
- SBF's team might be aware of the looming deadline and is working to finalize a plea deal (strength: 3).
- A guilty plea would allow SBF to avoid a potentially lengthy trial, which could be in his best interest (strength: 4).
- The court might be moving quickly to resolve the case, with a guilty plea being a possibility by August 21 (strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that the case is not straightforward. The strength of the reasons for a "no" answer (total: 16) is somewhat balanced by the strength of the reasons for a "yes" answer (total: 19). However, the reasons for a "yes" answer seem more concrete and directly related to the situation, while the "no" reasons are more speculative.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of SBF pleading guilty by August 21 to be around 60.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the balanced strength of the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the potential consequences of a guilty plea for SBF and the prosecution. A guilty plea would likely have significant implications for both parties, which could influence their actions.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Mahmoud Abbas remain in power as the President of the State of Palestine and the Palestinian National Authority until 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2023, as confirmed by reliable sources such as verified news outlets or official Palestinian government statements? This question considers the possibility of Abbas's death, resignation, removal, or any other circumstances that may cause him to vacate the office of the President of Palestine by the specified date.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- Abbas's advanced age (4/5): As the President of the State of Palestine is 87 years old, his health may deteriorate, making it difficult for him to continue in office.
- Ongoing health issues (4/5): Abbas has been experiencing health problems in the past, which may affect his ability to hold the office.
- Potential opposition and protests (3/5): The Palestinian people have expressed discontent with Abbas's leadership, and there may be opposition movements or protests that could lead to his removal.
- Succession crisis (4/5): The Palestinian National Authority has not clearly defined a clear line of succession, which may lead to a power struggle if Abbas vacates the office.
- External pressures and international factors (3/5): The Israeli-Palestinian conflict and international politics may influence Abbas's position and lead to his removal.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- No clear successor (4/5): The lack of a clear line of succession may make it difficult for Abbas's opponents to remove him from office.
- Abbas's current health status (3/5): While Abbas has health issues, he has been able to maintain his position so far, and his current health status may not be severe enough to force him to resign.
- Palestinian National Authority's institutional stability (4/5): The Palestinian National Authority has maintained stability despite internal conflicts and external pressures, which may suggest that Abbas will continue in office.
- Abbas's determination to remain in power (3/5): Abbas has shown a willingness to stay in power and may continue to do so until his term ends or he is forced out.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both "yes" and "no" answers, I weigh the strength of each argument. The potential for external pressures, opposition, and health issues may lead to Abbas's removal, but the lack of a clear successor and the Palestinian National Authority's stability suggest that he may remain in office. I will assign a probability based on these considerations.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of Mahmoud Abbas remaining in power as the President of the State of Palestine and the Palestinian National Authority until 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2023, to be 60.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% may be considered not confident enough, given the potential for significant external pressures and internal conflicts that could lead to Abbas's removal. However, the lack of a clear successor and the Palestinian National Authority's stability provide some reasons for optimism. The base rate of the event is not directly applicable, as this is a specific event with a clear deadline.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Hakeem Jeffries be elected as the next US Speaker of the House after Kevin McCarthy's ousting on October 3, 2023, before or on June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, and serve as the permanent Speaker of the House, not just as an interim or temporary Speaker Pro Tempore? This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hakeem Jeffries is elected and serves as the permanent Speaker of the House. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Lack of Republican support (Strength: 6/10)**: Although Hakeem Jeffries is a Democrat, the Speaker of the House is typically chosen by a majority vote in the House of Representatives. If a significant number of Republicans do not support Hakeem Jeffries, he may not be able to secure the necessary votes to become the Speaker.
- **Reason 2: Party divisions within the Democratic Party (Strength: 4/10)**: The Democratic Party has its own internal divisions, which could potentially hinder the election of Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker. If some Democrats do not support him, it may be difficult for him to gather enough votes to become the Speaker.
- **Reason 3: Unexpected events or scandals (Strength: 3/10)**: The House of Representatives is known for its unpredictability, and unexpected events or scandals could potentially prevent Hakeem Jeffries from becoming the Speaker.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Hakeem Jeffries' leadership experience and seniority (Strength: 8/10)**: As a senior member of the Democratic Party and a former Chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, Hakeem Jeffries has the necessary leadership experience and seniority to potentially become the Speaker of the House.
- **Reason 2: Democratic Party unity (Strength: 7/10)**: The Democratic Party has shown a strong desire to elect a minority leader who can effectively lead the party in the House. If the party unites behind Hakeem Jeffries, he may be able to secure the necessary votes to become the Speaker.
- **Reason 3: Republican divisions (Strength: 6/10)**: The Republican Party is currently divided, which could potentially hinder their ability to elect a Speaker. If the Republicans are unable to come to an agreement, it may create an opportunity for Hakeem Jeffries to become the Speaker.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I believe that Hakeem Jeffries' leadership experience and seniority, as well as the Democratic Party's unity and Republican divisions, make it more likely that he will be elected as the next US Speaker of the House. However, the lack of Republican support and potential party divisions within the Democratic Party could potentially hinder his election.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Hakeem Jeffries being elected as the next US Speaker of the House to be 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 60% may be slightly too confident, given the unpredictability of the House of Representatives and the potential for unexpected events or scandals to occur. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of a new Speaker being elected in a given timeframe) is relatively low, which should also be taken into account when making the prediction.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Japan win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to take place in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023? The market will resolve to "Yes" if Japan is declared the champion of the tournament. If Japan is eliminated or has no path to victory based on the rules of the FIFA Women's World Cup 2023, the market will resolve to "No." If no champion is declared by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA, including official footage from the World Cup, with a consensus of credible reporting also being considered.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-10, where 10 is the strongest):

- Japan's group stage performance: Japan was drawn into Group D, which also includes Spain, England, and Haiti. This group is considered competitive, and a poor start could put Japan under significant pressure. (Strength: 6)
- Lack of recent success: Japan has not won the Women's World Cup since 2011, and their recent performances have been inconsistent. (Strength: 5)
- Strong competition in the tournament: The 2023 Women's World Cup features many strong teams, including the United States, Germany, and France, which could pose a significant challenge to Japan. (Strength: 8)
- Team injuries or suspensions: Injuries or suspensions to key players could significantly impact Japan's chances of winning the tournament. (Strength: 4)
- Upset potential: Upsets can occur in any tournament, and Japan could potentially lose to a lower-ranked team. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-10, where 10 is the strongest):

- Japan's recent improvements: Japan has shown significant improvement in recent years, including a third-place finish at the 2019 World Cup. (Strength: 7)
- Strong team cohesion: Japan has a well-coached team with a good balance of experience and youth. (Strength: 8)
- Home advantage: Japan has a strong following in the Asia-Pacific region, which could provide a significant home advantage in the tournament. (Strength: 6)
- Strong squad depth: Japan has a deep squad with many talented players, which could help them navigate the tournament. (Strength: 9)
- Recent form: Japan has been in good form leading up to the tournament, winning several recent friendlies. (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that Japan's strong team cohesion, squad depth, and recent form are significant positives. However, the strong competition in the tournament, lack of recent success, and potential for upsets are significant negatives. Japan's group stage performance and potential injuries or suspensions are also concerns.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate Japan's chances of winning the 2023 Women's World Cup to be around 20%. This is a relatively low estimate due to the strong competition and potential risks mentioned earlier.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 20% may be too low, as it does not fully capture the potential for upsets and the fact that Japan has shown significant improvement in recent years. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of any team winning the World Cup) is likely to be around 1 in 8, given the number of teams participating. This means that Japan's probability should be adjusted upwards to reflect the fact that they are one of many possible winners.

7. Final prediction:
*0.28*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.28
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain in power as the Prime Minister of Israel until 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2023, as confirmed by reliable sources such as verified news outlets or official government statements, and not be removed, resign, or pass away by that date?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- **Reason 1: Potential legal issues:** Netanyahu is facing ongoing corruption charges, and there's a possibility that he could be convicted or forced to resign due to these charges. Strength: 60%
- **Reason 2: Coalition instability:** The Israeli government has historically been prone to instability, and Netanyahu's coalition might collapse, leading to his removal. Strength: 50%
- **Reason 3: Election or new government:** There's a possibility that new elections could be called, potentially leading to a change in government and Netanyahu's removal. Strength: 40%
- **Reason 4: Health issues:** Netanyahu is 73 years old, and health issues could force him to resign or be unable to continue serving. Strength: 20%

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- **Reason 1: Current coalition support:** Netanyahu's coalition seems stable, and he has the support of the necessary parties to maintain power. Strength: 70%
- **Reason 2: Lack of clear alternative:** There is no clear alternative to Netanyahu within the Likud party, and he has maintained a strong grip on the party. Strength: 60%
- **Reason 3: Israeli politics:** Israeli politics often prioritize short-term interests over long-term stability, and Netanyahu's removal might not be a priority for many politicians. Strength: 40%

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the likelihood of Netanyahu remaining in power is higher than the likelihood of him being removed. However, the potential for legal issues, coalition instability, and election-related changes cannot be ruled out.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Netanyahu remaining in power by the end of 2023 at 65%.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
The initial probability of 65% seems reasonable, but it might be considered somewhat overly confident given the uncertainty surrounding Israeli politics. However, considering the base rate of prime ministers being removed from office is relatively low, the probability might be slightly higher than it would be in other countries.

7. Final prediction:
*0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the Republican party gain control of both the Virginia Senate and the Virginia House of Delegates following the 2023 legislative elections in Virginia? This question will be resolved to "Yes" if, after the 2023 elections, the Republican party holds a majority in both the Senate and the House of Delegates. A tie in the Senate, where the Republican Lieutenant Governor acts as the tiebreaker, will be considered a "Yes" resolution. However, a tie in the House of Delegates will result in a "No" resolution, as tie votes in the House fail to advance a bill for further action. The resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting or, in case of ambiguity, the final state election authority certification or other official determination of the 2023 election results.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength of each reason):

- The Democratic party has traditionally been strong in Virginia, holding the governor's office and having a majority in the House of Delegates in the previous legislative session. (Strength: 6/10)
- Historically, Virginia has trended Democratic in recent years, which might make it challenging for the Republican party to gain control. (Strength: 5/10)
- The 2023 elections might see a strong Democratic turnout, which could favor the incumbent party. (Strength: 4/10)
- The Republican party might struggle to appeal to moderate voters in key districts. (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength of each reason):

- The Republican party has been gaining ground in Virginia in recent years, and the 2022 gubernatorial election saw a closer-than-expected result. (Strength: 7/10)
- The 2023 elections might see a shift in voter sentiment, with Republicans benefiting from a backlash against the Democratic party's policies. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Republican party has a strong candidate pool and might be able to capitalize on issues like inflation, crime, and education. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Lieutenant Governor's ability to break ties in the Senate could be a significant factor in the Republican party's favor. (Strength: 4/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for both a "Yes" and "No" answer, I believe that the Republican party has a moderate chance of gaining control of both the Senate and the House of Delegates. While the Democratic party has historically been strong in Virginia, the Republican party has been gaining ground in recent years, and the 2023 elections might see a shift in voter sentiment. However, the Democratic party's traditional strength and the potential for a strong Democratic turnout are also factors to consider.

5. Initial probability:

Given the considerations above, I would estimate the initial probability of the Republican party gaining control of both the Senate and the House of Delegates to be around 55%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:

My initial probability of 55% might be slightly too confident, given the uncertainty surrounding the 2023 elections and the potential for unexpected events to impact the outcome. However, I do not think it is too conservative, as there are valid reasons to believe that the Republican party has a chance of gaining control.

7. Final prediction:

*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the 2023 film 'Wonka' gross more than $40 million in its domestic 3-day opening weekend, according to the numbers from Box Office Mojo, considering the data from December 15-17? This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Wonka' (2023) grosses more than $40,000,000 on its 3-day opening. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The market will be resolved based on the final numbers available under the "Domestic Weekend" tab on Box Office Mojo, which might include Thursday's previews. If there is no final data available by December 22, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The question will be resolved based on the domestic weekend box office performance in the United States and possibly Canada, depending on the definition used by Box Office Mojo.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

* Reason 1: The film's marketing campaign may not have generated enough buzz, leading to lower ticket sales. (Strength: 4/10)
* Reason 2: The film might be facing stiff competition from other holiday releases, which could draw away potential viewers. (Strength: 6/10)
* Reason 3: The film's Rotten Tomatoes score or audience score might be lower than expected, potentially impacting box office performance. (Strength: 3/10)
* Reason 4: The film's production budget might be higher than expected, making it harder to achieve a high opening weekend gross. (Strength: 2/10)
* Reason 5: The film's genre (family-friendly musical) might not be as popular as other genres, affecting its box office performance. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

* Reason 1: The film has a well-known and beloved source material (Roald Dahl's 'Charlie and the Chocolate Factory'), which could attract a large audience. (Strength: 8/10)
* Reason 2: The film's cast, including Timothée Chalamet, has a strong following, potentially drawing in viewers. (Strength: 7/10)
* Reason 3: The film's marketing campaign has been extensive, with a strong social media presence and promotional tie-ins. (Strength: 6/10)
* Reason 4: The film's release date in December might capitalize on the holiday season, attracting families and children. (Strength: 9/10)
* Reason 5: The film's genre (family-friendly musical) might be more appealing to a wider audience than some other genres. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Based on the provided information and my analysis, I consider the reasons for a "yes" to be stronger than the reasons for a "no." The well-known source material, strong cast, and holiday release date are significant advantages for the film's box office performance. However, the competition from other holiday releases and the potential for a lower production budget could impact the film's performance.

5. Initial probability:

Given the considerations above, I estimate the probability of 'Wonka' grossing over $40 million in its domestic 3-day opening weekend to be around 65%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:

My initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too cautious. The film's strong cast, marketing campaign, and holiday release date provide a solid foundation for a successful opening weekend. However, I have not considered the base rate of films grossing over $40 million in their opening weekend, which might be relatively high. This could potentially increase the probability.

7. Final prediction:

*0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the first ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, agreed upon and initiated as part of a hostage/prisoner exchange deal, last for at least 4 full days (96 consecutive hours) from the time it starts? If no such ceasefire begins by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM IST (Israeli Standard Time), the answer will be "No". This market's primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible information and reporting.

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No":

- **Reason 1: History of Ceasefire Breakdowns** (Strength: 8/10) - There have been numerous instances where ceasefires between Hamas and Israel have been short-lived, with both parties often accusing each other of violating the agreements. This history suggests that the current ceasefire might not last long.
- **Reason 2: Fundamental Differences in Goals** (Strength: 9/10) - Hamas and Israel have fundamentally different goals, with Hamas seeking to establish an independent Palestinian state and Israel aiming to maintain its sovereignty and security. These differences make it challenging to achieve a lasting ceasefire.
- **Reason 3: External Influences** (Strength: 6/10) - External factors such as regional politics, international pressure, and other global events can impact the ceasefire's duration. For example, the involvement of other countries or organizations might disrupt the agreement.

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes":

- **Reason 1: Hostage/Prisoner Exchange Deal** (Strength: 7/10) - The fact that a hostage/prisoner exchange deal is involved might create a strong incentive for both parties to maintain the ceasefire, at least for a short period.
- **Reason 2: International Pressure** (Strength: 8/10) - The international community, including key players like the United States, European Union, and other countries, might exert significant pressure on both parties to adhere to the ceasefire agreement.
- **Reason 3: Economic Interests** (Strength: 5/10) - A prolonged conflict can have severe economic consequences for both Hamas-controlled Gaza and Israel. A ceasefire might be beneficial for both parties to focus on rebuilding and economic recovery.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the likelihood of the ceasefire lasting at least 4 full days seems uncertain. While there are valid arguments for both sides, the history of ceasefire breakdowns and fundamental differences in goals between Hamas and Israel weigh heavily against a long-lasting agreement. However, the involvement of a hostage/prisoner exchange deal and international pressure might create a temporary incentive for both parties to maintain the ceasefire.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would initially estimate the probability of the ceasefire lasting at least 4 full days at 40%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40% seems reasonable, considering the uncertainty surrounding the situation. However, it might be too low, given the potential benefits of a ceasefire for both parties. A more optimistic assessment might be warranted, taking into account the international pressure and the hostage/prisoner exchange deal.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Sheikh Hasina be re-elected as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh in the general election scheduled for January 7, 2024, as officially announced by the Bangladesh government or as reported by a consensus of credible news sources?

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No":

* The opposition parties in Bangladesh, such as the BNP, have been vocal about their intention to contest the election and potentially challenge Sheikh Hasina's leadership (Strength: 6/10). This could indicate a strong opposition presence that might impact the outcome of the election.
* The Bangladesh Election Commission has faced criticism in the past for alleged irregularities and bias, which could raise concerns about the fairness of the election (Strength: 5/10).
* The Bangladesh economy has faced challenges in recent years, including high inflation and a large trade deficit, which might affect the ruling party's popularity (Strength: 4/10).
* Sheikh Hasina's Awami League party has been in power for a long time, and there might be a sense of fatigue among voters, potentially leading to a change in leadership (Strength: 3/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes":

* Sheikh Hasina's Awami League party has a strong grassroots presence and a significant following among the Bengali-speaking population (Strength: 8/10).
* The party has implemented various development projects and policies that have improved the lives of many Bangladeshis, which could boost their popularity (Strength: 7/10).
* Sheikh Hasina has been a key figure in Bangladesh's economic development, and her party's economic policies have received international recognition (Strength: 6/10).
* The opposition parties have faced internal divisions and challenges, which might weaken their ability to mount a strong challenge to the ruling party (Strength: 5/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the above points, it seems that the factors in favor of Sheikh Hasina's re-election are stronger than those against it. The Awami League's grassroots presence, development projects, and economic policies are significant advantages. However, the opposition's potential challenges and criticisms of the Election Commission and the economy are notable concerns.

5. Initial probability: 80

6. Evaluation:
The calculated probability seems relatively high, but it's not excessively confident. The factors against Sheikh Hasina's re-election are present, but they seem less significant than the advantages in favor of her re-election. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is that incumbent prime ministers are often re-elected in Bangladesh. This might influence the final probability.

7. Final prediction: *0.85*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.85
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Poloniex hacker return at least 80% of the $120 million stolen on or before November 17, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, as per Justin Sun's ultimatum, based on official information from Poloniex and Justin Sun, and a consensus of credible reporting?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Hacker's intentions and motivations**: The hacker's primary goal is likely to profit from the stolen funds, rather than returning them. This motivation suggests that returning the funds might not be in their best interest. Strength: 8/10
- **Reason 2: Lack of trust in the hacker**: The hacker's identity and location are unknown, making it difficult to establish trust or a sense of responsibility for returning the funds. Strength: 7/10
- **Reason 3: Complexity of returning funds**: Returning the funds might be a complex process, requiring cooperation from multiple parties and potentially involving law enforcement. This could lead to delays or difficulties in returning the funds. Strength: 6/10
- **Reason 4: Justin Sun's ultimatum might be a bluff**: Justin Sun's tweet could be a strategic move to pressure the hacker into returning the funds, rather than a genuine threat. If this is the case, the hacker might not feel obligated to return the funds. Strength: 5/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Justin Sun's ultimatum creates a sense of urgency**: The 7-day deadline set by Justin Sun creates a sense of urgency, which might prompt the hacker to return the funds to avoid engaging with law enforcement. Strength: 8/10
- **Reason 2: Potential for reputation and public scrutiny**: Returning the funds could help the hacker avoid public scrutiny and maintain a lower profile. Strength: 6/10
- **Reason 3: Possibility of a deal or negotiation**: Justin Sun or Poloniex might be in contact with the hacker, negotiating a deal to return some or all of the funds. Strength: 5/10

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons for the answer being "no" (Reasons 1-4) have a combined strength of 26/10. The reasons for the answer being "yes" (Reasons 1-3) have a combined strength of 19/10. Considering the strength of these reasons, it seems that the hacker returning the funds is less likely.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the hacker returning at least 80% of the stolen funds to be around 25%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 25% seems to be on the lower end, considering the potential consequences of not returning the funds, such as engaging with law enforcement. However, the reasons for the answer being "no" have a higher combined strength, which might indicate a lower likelihood of the hacker returning the funds. The base rate of the event is unknown, but it's likely that hackers rarely return stolen funds, which could further support a lower probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.20*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.2
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the United States engage in a kinetic strike or deploy new troops on the ground with the explicit purpose of combat operations in the 2023 Israel-Hamas conflict by October 31, 2023, as per official announcements from the U.S. Department of Defense, the White House, or public speeches by the U.S. President or Secretary of Defense? This market will resolve to "Yes" if such intervention occurs, and "No" if no such intervention is announced or deployed by the specified deadline.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- The United States has historically been cautious in its military interventions, especially in sensitive regions like the Middle East, which might lead to a more measured approach. (Strength: 6/10)
- The US has maintained a relatively hands-off approach to the Israel-Hamas conflict in recent years, preferring diplomatic efforts over direct military intervention. (Strength: 7/10)
- The US might be hesitant to intervene due to potential backlash from other nations, particularly in the Arab world, or from domestic groups who oppose military involvement. (Strength: 5/10)
- The current US administration might prioritize diplomatic efforts or economic sanctions over military intervention. (Strength: 6/10)
- The conflict's escalation might not reach a point where the US feels compelled to intervene militarily. (Strength: 8/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- The US has a long-standing commitment to supporting Israel, and a strong alliance between the two countries could lead to US military involvement. (Strength: 8/10)
- The US has a history of intervening in regional conflicts when it perceives a threat to its national interests or regional stability. (Strength: 7/10)
- The conflict could escalate to a point where the US feels compelled to intervene to protect its citizens, allies, or regional stability. (Strength: 9/10)
- The US might see an opportunity to demonstrate its military capabilities and influence in the region. (Strength: 5/10)
- The US could be pushed into intervention by international pressure or a perceived moral obligation to act. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for a "yes" and "no" outcome, it seems that the US has a history of caution and a preference for diplomatic efforts in the region. However, the strength of the reasons for a "yes" outcome, particularly the US's commitment to Israel and the potential for conflict escalation, might outweigh the reasons for a "no" outcome.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of the US engaging in a kinetic strike or deploying new troops on the ground by October 31, 2023, as 40%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability might be considered not confident enough, given the strong reasons for a "yes" outcome. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of US military interventions in the region, which might be relatively low. This could suggest that the initial probability is reasonable, but further consideration of the specific circumstances surrounding the conflict is necessary.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Federal Reserve increase the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by exactly 25 basis points after its September 2023 meeting? This question will be resolved based on the FOMC's statement after its meeting scheduled for September 19-20, 2023. The resolution source is the FOMC's statement, and the relevant data is published on the official website of the Federal Reserve at XXXX. If no statement is released by September 27, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to a 50-50 outcome.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Federal Reserve might be cautious about further rate hikes due to concerns about the economy's resilience and potential recession risks (Strength: 4).
- Inflation might have decreased significantly since the last FOMC meeting, reducing the need for rate hikes (Strength: 3).
- The Federal Reserve might be prioritizing other policy tools, such as forward guidance or quantitative tightening, over rate hikes (Strength: 2).
- The market expectations for rate hikes might be already priced in, making a 25-basis-point increase unnecessary (Strength: 2).
- The Federal Reserve might be waiting for more data or a clearer economic picture before making a decision (Strength: 4).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Federal Reserve has previously indicated a hawkish stance on interest rates, suggesting a continued tightening of monetary policy (Strength: 5).
- The labor market remains strong, with low unemployment and rising wages, justifying further rate hikes (Strength: 4).
- The Federal Reserve might be trying to combat inflation, which has been above the target range, by increasing the target federal funds rate (Strength: 5).
- The market expectations for rate hikes might be too low, and the Federal Reserve wants to surprise the market with a rate hike (Strength: 3).
- The Federal Reserve might be trying to maintain the credibility of its inflation-fighting stance by making a rate hike (Strength: 4).

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Federal Reserve has been hawkish on interest rates, and the labor market remains strong. However, there are concerns about the economy's resilience and potential recession risks. The market expectations for rate hikes might be too low, and the Federal Reserve might be trying to surprise the market. On the other hand, inflation has been above the target range, and the Federal Reserve might be trying to combat it by increasing the target federal funds rate.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike after the September 2023 meeting to be around 60.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability seems reasonable, considering the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the strong labor market. However, it might be too high, as there are concerns about the economy's resilience and potential recession risks. The base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of a rate hike in general) is likely around 50-60%, given the Federal Reserve's previous actions. Considering this, the calculated probability might be slightly too high.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approve at least one Ethereum-based futures ETF by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, considering the primary resolution source to be information from the SEC and a consensus of credible reporting?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The SEC has historically been cautious when it comes to approving new cryptocurrency-related products, which could lead to a delay or rejection of an Ethereum-based ETF (Strength: 4).
- The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is still evolving, and the SEC might require additional time to finalize their stance on ETFs (Strength: 3).
- The SEC might be concerned about the potential risks associated with investing in Ethereum, such as market volatility and security risks (Strength: 2).
- The SEC might be overwhelmed with other priorities and unable to review and approve an Ethereum-based ETF before the deadline (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- There has been increasing demand for Ethereum-based ETFs, which could put pressure on the SEC to approve one (Strength: 4).
- The SEC has already approved other cryptocurrency-related products, such as Bitcoin futures ETFs, which could set a precedent for Ethereum-based ETFs (Strength: 4).
- The SEC might be more open to approving an Ethereum-based ETF due to the growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies in the financial industry (Strength: 3).
- The SEC might be working on a framework for approving Ethereum-based ETFs, which could lead to a faster approval process (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, it seems that the SEC's cautious approach to cryptocurrency regulation and the evolving regulatory environment could lead to a delay or rejection of an Ethereum-based ETF. However, the increasing demand for Ethereum-based ETFs and the SEC's previous approval of other cryptocurrency-related products could also contribute to a faster approval process.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the SEC approving an Ethereum-based ETF by December 31, 2023, to be around 60.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 might be considered not confident enough, given the potential for the SEC to approve an Ethereum-based ETF due to the increasing demand and the precedent set by previous approvals. However, the SEC's cautious approach and the evolving regulatory environment could also lead to a delay or rejection.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the potential for the SEC to approve an Ethereum-based ETF, but also the cautious approach and regulatory environment, I would adjust the probability to 65%. Therefore, the final prediction is: *0.65*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the State of Israel announce and begin flooding Hamas tunnels with seawater by December 15, 2023, 11:59 IST (Israel Standard Time, GMT+2), as part of a military operation or strategy against Hamas, according to official statements or credible reporting? This question will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed announcement and initiation of the flooding by the specified deadline, and to "No" if no such announcement or action is taken.

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No" and their strength:
- **Reason 1:** Israel might not consider flooding tunnels as an effective or necessary military strategy, given the potential risks and consequences, such as civilian casualties, damage to infrastructure, or escalation of the conflict. Strength: 6/10
- **Reason 2:** The Israeli government might be focused on diplomatic efforts or other military strategies to address the Hamas threat, making tunnel flooding a lower priority. Strength: 4/10
- **Reason 3:** Flooding tunnels could be a complex operation requiring significant resources and planning, and Israel might not be ready to execute it by the specified deadline. Strength: 5/10
- **Reason 4:** The Israeli government might be cautious about announcing a significant military operation, especially one that could be perceived as escalatory, and therefore might not make a public announcement about flooding tunnels. Strength: 7/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes" and their strength:
- **Reason 1:** Israel has used similar tactics in the past, such as flooding tunnels in the 2014 Gaza War, and might see flooding tunnels as a viable option to weaken Hamas. Strength: 8/10
- **Reason 2:** The Israeli government might view flooding tunnels as a way to disrupt Hamas's military capabilities and create a strategic advantage in the conflict. Strength: 9/10
- **Reason 3:** There have been reports and warnings about Hamas's tunnel network, and Israel might be planning to take action to address this threat. Strength: 6/10

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the most significant factors pointing towards a "Yes" answer are the potential effectiveness of flooding tunnels as a military strategy and the possibility that Israel has been planning to take action against Hamas's tunnel network. However, there are also valid reasons to consider a "No" answer, including the potential risks and complexities of such an operation, and the possibility that Israel might not see it as a priority.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the initial probability of the answer being "Yes" to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, given the available information and the strength of the reasons provided. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of such events and the potential for Israel to take unexpected actions. The base rate of Israel using tunnel flooding as a military tactic is relatively low, and there is always a possibility that Israel might choose a different approach. Therefore, the initial probability might be slightly too high.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Israel initiate a large-scale ground military operation in Gaza involving more than 1000 Israeli ground forces by October 22, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, based on a consensus of credible reporting?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Israel's military has been conducting smaller-scale operations and airstrikes in Gaza, which might suggest a preference for targeted and less invasive methods (strength: 4).
- The international community, including the US, has been urging restraint and a diplomatic solution, which might limit Israel's willingness to launch a major ground operation (strength: 4).
- The Gaza Strip has been under a tight blockade, and a major ground operation could lead to significant humanitarian consequences, which might be a deterrent (strength: 3).
- Israel's military might be focused on other priorities, such as its ongoing conflicts with Hezbollah and Iran, rather than a large-scale operation in Gaza (strength: 2).
- A major ground operation could be costly in terms of human life and resources, which might be a concern for the Israeli government (strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Tensions between Israel and Hamas have been escalating, with frequent rocket attacks and retaliatory airstrikes, which might create a need for a more significant military response (strength: 5).
- The Israeli government has been criticized for not taking decisive action against Hamas, which might lead to pressure from domestic politics to launch a more substantial operation (strength: 4).
- A major ground operation could be seen as a way to weaken Hamas's military capabilities and improve Israel's security situation (strength: 4).
- The Israeli military has been preparing for a potential operation in Gaza, with reports of troop mobilizations and equipment deployments (strength: 3).
- A major ground operation could be seen as a way to demonstrate Israel's military strength and deter future attacks (strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the situation is complex and influenced by multiple factors. The strength of the reasons for a "no" and a "yes" are relatively balanced, but there are a few factors that give a slight edge to the "no" side, such as the international pressure for restraint and the potential humanitarian consequences of a major operation. However, the escalating tensions and the need for a more significant military response from Israel's perspective might push the situation in the opposite direction.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Israel launching a major ground offensive in Gaza by October 22, 2023, to be around 60.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems to be relatively high, considering the potential risks and consequences of a major ground operation. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of such events, which might be relatively low. Additionally, the situation in Gaza is volatile, and new developments could change the dynamics of the situation. To adjust for this, I might reduce the initial probability to account for the uncertainty and potential for unexpected events.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will every candidate participating in the 4th RNC primary debate scheduled for December 6, 2023, mention the name "Biden" at least once during their speech or in response to a question, considering the pluralization or possessive forms of the name also count towards the resolution of this market? The resolution source will be live video of the debate, with official transcripts and/or credible reporting serving as a tiebreaker in case of ambiguity. If the debate is cancelled or delayed beyond December 12, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No":

- **Reason 1: Debate format and time constraints** (Strength: 4/10): The debate might be structured in a way that limits the time available for each candidate to speak, potentially reducing the likelihood of every candidate mentioning the name "Biden."
- **Reason 2: Candidate strategy and focus** (Strength: 6/10): Some candidates might deliberately avoid mentioning the name "Biden" to avoid drawing attention to a potential rival or to maintain a neutral stance.
- **Reason 3: Debate moderation and question topics** (Strength: 3/10): The debate moderators might not ask questions directly related to President Biden, which could reduce the likelihood of candidates mentioning his name.

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes":

- **Reason 1: Expected topics and questions** (Strength: 8/10): Given the current political climate and the fact that President Biden is a prominent figure in the Republican Party's primary debates, it's likely that some questions will be directed towards him or his policies, increasing the chances of candidates mentioning his name.
- **Reason 2: Candidates' past behavior** (Strength: 7/10): Historically, candidates in Republican primary debates have often mentioned their opponents, including President Biden, to criticize or differentiate themselves.
- **Reason 3: Live debate dynamics** (Strength: 5/10): The live format of the debate can lead to spontaneous moments and reactions, increasing the likelihood of candidates mentioning the name "Biden" in response to a question or a statement from another candidate.

4. Aggregated considerations:
The debate format and time constraints might limit the opportunities for candidates to mention the name "Biden." However, the expected topics and questions, candidates' past behavior, and live debate dynamics all suggest that it's likely that at least some candidates will mention the name. Considering these factors, the probability of every candidate mentioning "Biden" seems higher than the probability of no candidate mentioning it.

5. Initial probability: 65

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability seems relatively low, considering the factors that suggest a higher likelihood of candidates mentioning the name "Biden." However, the debate format and time constraints might still play a significant role in limiting opportunities for candidates to mention the name. Additionally, the base rate of candidates mentioning their opponents in primary debates is relatively high, which might support the initial probability. However, this base rate might be influenced by past debates that were more focused on President Biden, and the current debate might have a different tone and focus.

7. Final prediction: *0.70*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and expanded question:**

Will incumbent President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi win the 2023 Egyptian presidential election, scheduled to take place on December 10-12, 2023? This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by October 31, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Egyptian government, but a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

**Reasons why the answer might be no:**

1. **Growing dissatisfaction with el-Sisi's government**: There have been increasing protests and demonstrations in Egypt, particularly among young people and the middle class, who are dissatisfied with the government's handling of the economy and human rights issues. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Potential opposition candidate strength**: The opposition, although fragmented, has been gaining momentum, and a strong candidate could potentially challenge el-Sisi's dominance. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Economic challenges**: Egypt's economy is facing significant challenges, including high inflation, a large budget deficit, and a reliance on foreign aid. This could erode support for el-Sisi's government. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **International pressure**: The international community has been critical of el-Sisi's human rights record, and there may be pressure on him to reform or face diplomatic consequences. (Strength: 4/10)

**Reasons why the answer might be yes:**

1. **El-Sisi's popularity**: Despite growing discontent, el-Sisi remains a popular figure in Egypt, particularly among the older population and the military. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Control of the electoral process**: El-Sisi's government has significant control over the electoral process, which could give him an advantage in the election. (Strength: 9/10)
3. **Lack of a strong opposition candidate**: The opposition is fragmented, and it's unclear if a strong candidate will emerge to challenge el-Sisi. (Strength: 6/10)
4. **Military backing**: El-Sisi has the support of the military, which is a powerful institution in Egypt and could help him maintain power. (Strength: 9/10)

**Aggregated considerations:**

Considering the reasons above, it seems that el-Sisi has a significant advantage in the election. However, the growing dissatisfaction with his government and the potential for a strong opposition candidate could potentially challenge his dominance. The control of the electoral process and military backing also work in his favor.

**Initial probability:**

Based on the above considerations, I would estimate the probability of el-Sisi winning the election at 80%.

**Evaluation of initial probability:**

My initial probability seems relatively high, but it's not excessively confident. However, it's worth considering the base rate of the event, which is that incumbent presidents often win re-election. Additionally, the Egyptian electoral process is often criticized for being unfair, which could affect the outcome.

**Final prediction:**

*0.85*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.85
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will Joe Biden's approval rating, as reported by FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator on December 12, 2023, be 38.0% or higher? The resolution of this market will be based on the green trend line for the approval rating on December 12. If no datapoint for December 12 is available by December 13, 11:59:59 PM ET, the market will resolve according to the nearest previous approval rating to December 12. The market will be resolved as soon as the December 13 datapoint becomes available. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reason 1: Joe Biden's approval ratings have been trending downwards since his inauguration, which might indicate a continued decline in his approval ratings. Strength: 6/10
- Reason 2: The president's approval ratings are often affected by current events, and December 12 might coincide with a period of negative news for the administration. Strength: 5/10
- Reason 3: Historical data might show that presidential approval ratings tend to be lower in December compared to other months. Strength: 4/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Reason 1: Joe Biden's approval ratings have shown stability and resilience in the past, which might indicate that he can maintain a relatively high approval rating. Strength: 7/10
- Reason 2: The president's approval ratings can be influenced by his policy initiatives and actions, and he might announce positive news or policies that boost his approval rating on or before December 12. Strength: 6/10
- Reason 3: The FiveThirtyEight approval rating poll aggregator might not accurately reflect the president's actual approval rating, and there could be factors not captured by the poll that contribute to a higher approval rating. Strength: 3/10

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that there are more factors that could contribute to a lower approval rating (Reasons 1 and 2 in both sections) than a higher approval rating. However, Joe Biden's approval ratings have shown resilience in the past, and there is a possibility that positive news or policies could boost his rating. Additionally, the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregator might not accurately reflect the president's actual approval rating. Taking these factors into account, it seems that the probability of the answer being "yes" is relatively low.

5. Initial probability: 25

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 25 seems relatively low, considering that there are some factors that could contribute to a higher approval rating. However, the historical trend of declining approval ratings and the potential for negative news or events to affect the rating might justify a lower probability. The base rate of the event is not explicitly provided, but it is likely that the president's approval ratings are generally lower than 38% at some point in their term.

7. Final prediction: *0.30*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.3
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl LVIII? Given the current information, what is the likelihood that the Jacksonville Jaguars will emerge victorious in the NFL playoffs and ultimately win Super Bowl LVIII, considering their current team performance, the strength of their opponents, and any other relevant factors that may impact their chances?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is a weak reason and 5 is a strong reason):

- The Jacksonville Jaguars have not had a strong regular season performance in recent years, which may indicate underlying issues with the team. (Strength: 3)
- The team's division is competitive, and they may struggle to secure a high seed in the playoffs. (Strength: 4)
- The Jaguars have a tough schedule ahead of them in the playoffs, with potential matchups against strong teams. (Strength: 4)
- The team has a young roster, which may lack experience and depth. (Strength: 2)
- The NFL is a highly competitive league, and many teams have a strong chance of winning the Super Bowl. (Strength: 1)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is a weak reason and 5 is a strong reason):

- The Jaguars have shown flashes of brilliance in recent games, indicating potential for a deep playoff run. (Strength: 3)
- The team has a strong young quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, who has the potential to make a significant impact in the playoffs. (Strength: 4)
- The Jaguars have a solid defense that can potentially carry them through the playoffs. (Strength: 4)
- The team has a good coaching staff that can make adjustments and strategize effectively. (Strength: 3)
- The Jaguars have a strong team culture and a motivated roster, which can be a key factor in a deep playoff run. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that the Jaguars face significant challenges in their playoff run, including a tough schedule and a competitive division. However, they also have some positive factors working in their favor, such as a strong young quarterback and a solid defense. Overall, it seems that the Jaguars are unlikely to win the Super Bowl, but not impossible.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I would estimate the Jaguars' chances of winning Super Bowl LVIII to be around 5%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon reflection, I realize that my initial probability might be too low. While the Jaguars do face challenges, they also have some positive factors working in their favor. Additionally, the NFL playoffs are inherently unpredictable, and upsets can occur. Considering these factors, I may have underestimated the Jaguars' chances.

7. Final prediction:
*0.10*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.1
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Kevin McCarthy remain the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives without interruption from September 13, 2023, through October 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, according to official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Kevin McCarthy or his representative, and considering credible reporting as a consensus?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
   a. Kevin McCarthy's leadership has faced opposition from within his own party, which could potentially lead to a vote of no confidence or a leadership challenge (Strength: 60%).
   b. The U.S. government is known for its polarized environment, and a change in leadership could be a consequence of the ongoing partisan tensions (Strength: 40%).
   c. The 2024 U.S. presidential election may lead to a shift in the balance of power in Congress, potentially affecting McCarthy's position (Strength: 20%).
   d. McCarthy's relationship with the Republican Party's right-wing faction could deteriorate, leading to a challenge to his leadership (Strength: 30%).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
   a. Kevin McCarthy has maintained his position as Speaker despite previous challenges, indicating his ability to navigate the complexities of the Republican Party (Strength: 70%).
   b. The Republican Party has a slim majority in the House of Representatives, making it less likely for a challenge to succeed (Strength: 50%).
   c. McCarthy has made concessions to his party members to maintain their support, which could help him stay in power (Strength: 40%).
   d. The current environment in the U.S. Congress is relatively stable, with no major events announced that would lead to a change in leadership (Strength: 30%).

4. Aggregated considerations:
The aggregated considerations are a combination of the reasons provided above. Considering the reasons for a "no" answer, there are potential challenges to McCarthy's leadership, but they are not extremely strong. The reasons for a "yes" answer suggest that McCarthy has maintained his position despite previous challenges and has made concessions to his party members. However, the aggregated strength of the reasons for a "yes" answer (40% + 50% + 40% + 30% = 160%) is higher than the reasons for a "no" answer (60% + 40% + 20% + 30% = 150%).

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Kevin McCarthy remaining Speaker through October 15, 2023, to be 60%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, considering the reasons for both a "yes" and a "no" answer. However, it might be considered not confident enough, given the potential for significant events to occur in the U.S. Congress. The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a Speaker being removed from office) is difficult to estimate, but it is likely low.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Taylor Swift be the sole or a part of the TIME magazine's 2023 Person of the Year, either alone or in conjunction with another person or thing, as announced by TIME magazine by January 15, 2024 (11:59 PM ET), or will it not be announced by then?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- Strength: 6/10
   Taylor Swift has been named Person of the Year before, but it's not a guarantee she will be again. The selection process for TIME's Person of the Year is subjective and influenced by various factors, including current events and social impact.

- Strength: 7/10
   Other celebrities or public figures might be more impactful or relevant to the current year's events, making them more likely to be chosen as Person of the Year.

- Strength: 8/10
   Taylor Swift has been in the news for her music and personal life, but she may not be seen as having a significant enough impact on the world to be chosen as Person of the Year.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- Strength: 4/10
   Taylor Swift has a large and dedicated fan base, which could contribute to her being chosen as Person of the Year.

- Strength: 6/10
   Taylor Swift has been a prominent figure in the music industry and has used her platform to advocate for various causes, which might make her a suitable choice for Person of the Year.

- Strength: 8/10
   Taylor Swift has been in the news for her music and personal life, and her influence on popular culture could make her a strong candidate for Person of the Year.

4. Aggregated considerations:

The reasons for the answer being no are more substantial and have a higher combined strength (21/10) compared to the reasons for the answer being yes (18/10). This suggests that Taylor Swift being chosen as Person of the Year is less likely.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability of 40% seems relatively low given Taylor Swift's influence and popularity. However, considering the subjective nature of the Person of the Year selection and the presence of other strong candidates, this probability might be reasonable. The base rate of Taylor Swift being chosen as Person of the Year in the past is not significantly higher than other celebrities, which might also contribute to this relatively low probability.

7. Final prediction: *0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Joe Biden be the President of the United States as of October 1, 2023, 12 PM ET, according to official US government sources, such as the White House website (XXXX), as substantiated by credible news outlets and government records?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- **Reason 1: Presidential term limit**: Joe Biden is currently serving his second term as President, and according to the 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution, a President is limited to two terms. Although this is not directly relevant to his status on October 1, 2023, it might influence his ability to run for re-election. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 2: Health issues**: As President ages, health concerns may arise, potentially affecting his ability to serve. (Strength: 4/10)
- **Reason 3: Resignation or impeachment**: Although unlikely, there is a possibility of Joe Biden resigning or being impeached before October 1, 2023. (Strength: 2/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- **Reason 1: Current status**: As of the current date (2023-06-22), Joe Biden is still the President of the United States. (Strength: 9/10)
- **Reason 2: No announced plans to resign or step down**: There is no public information suggesting that Joe Biden plans to resign or step down as President before October 1, 2023. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 3: No impeachment proceedings**: As of the current date, there are no known impeachment proceedings against Joe Biden. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the most significant factor is Joe Biden's current status as President and the lack of announced plans to resign or step down. While health issues and presidential term limits are potential concerns, they are less relevant to his status on October 1, 2023. The possibility of impeachment or resignation is low.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of Joe Biden being President on October 1, 2023, to be around 95%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability seems excessively confident, as it does not account for the possibility of unforeseen events or changes in circumstances that could affect Joe Biden's status. However, considering the lack of information suggesting otherwise, the probability remains high.

7. Final prediction:
*0.85*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.85
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will there be a third criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump by a Federal or State jurisdiction in the United States announced before June 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET? This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point before the resolution time, official information from US governmental sources or a wide consensus of credible reporting indicates that a third indictment has been announced. The definition of a State includes the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Reason 1: Lack of concrete evidence (Strength: 4) - There might not be sufficient evidence to support a third indictment, given the scrutiny and investigation that would be required to reach such a decision.
- Reason 2: Investigation timelines (Strength: 3) - Investigations can be lengthy and complex, and it's possible that any new developments or announcements might be pushed beyond the resolution date.
- Reason 3: Previous indictments' outcomes (Strength: 2) - The outcomes of previous indictments might not necessarily set a precedent for a third indictment, and each case is unique.
- Reason 4: Trump's ability to avoid indictment (Strength: 4) - Trump has managed to avoid indictment in the past, and it's possible that he might continue to do so.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Reason 1: Ongoing investigations (Strength: 5) - There are ongoing investigations into Trump's activities, and it's possible that new evidence might come to light that could lead to a third indictment.
- Reason 2: Previous indictments (Strength: 4) - The fact that Trump has been indicted twice before suggests that he is not immune to prosecution, and it's possible that a third indictment could follow.
- Reason 3: Increased scrutiny (Strength: 4) - Trump's actions and behavior have been under intense scrutiny, and it's possible that investigators might find enough evidence to support a third indictment.
- Reason 4: Legal precedents (Strength: 3) - Previous legal precedents set by the cases against Trump might make it more likely that a third indictment could be successful.

4. Aggregated considerations:

Based on the reasons above, I consider the likelihood of a third indictment to be relatively high, but not guaranteed. The strength of the reasons for a "yes" answer outweigh the reasons for a "no" answer, but the uncertainty surrounding the outcome is still significant.

5. Initial probability:

Given the considerations above, I would initially estimate the probability of a third indictment at 70%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:

Upon further consideration, I realize that the initial probability might be overly confident. The base rate of indictment for high-profile individuals like Trump is relatively low, and the complexity of the investigations involved makes it difficult to predict the outcome with certainty. Additionally, the fact that the resolution date is relatively close (June 29) means that there is still time for new developments to arise that could affect the outcome.

7. Final prediction:

*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE, The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) receive more than 28.0% of the total votes for the Congress of Deputies in the 2023 Spanish general election, which is scheduled to take place on July 23, 2023? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the PSOE achieves more than 28.0% of the total votes, and it will resolve to "No" if the PSOE gets 28.0% or less. The primary source of information for resolving this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, official information from the Spanish government and/or information published through the official website of the Kingdom of Spain's Ministry of the Interior (XXXX) will be used.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The PSOE has been facing internal divisions and a decline in popularity in recent years (Strength: 4). This could lead to a decrease in voter support.
- The emergence of new parties or movements might draw votes away from the PSOE (Strength: 3). For example, the rise of Vox or other far-right parties could affect the PSOE's vote share.
- The Spanish economy has faced challenges, including high inflation and a recession, which might negatively impact the PSOE's chances (Strength: 4).
- The PSOE's policies might not align with the preferences of a significant portion of the Spanish electorate (Strength: 3).
- The election campaign might not be effective in mobilizing PSOE supporters or presenting a compelling message (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The PSOE has a strong organizational structure and a large membership base, which could help in mobilizing supporters and volunteers (Strength: 4).
- The party has a long history of success in Spanish politics and a strong brand recognition (Strength: 4).
- The PSOE has a diverse and experienced leadership team, which could help in navigating the complexities of the election campaign (Strength: 3).
- The party has a clear policy platform that addresses the concerns of various segments of the Spanish electorate (Strength: 3).
- The PSOE has a strong presence in key regions and municipalities, which could translate into a significant vote share (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided above, the PSOE's internal divisions and the emergence of new parties or movements might negatively impact their chances. However, the party's strong organizational structure, experienced leadership, and clear policy platform could help mitigate these challenges. The Spanish economy's performance and the election campaign's effectiveness will also play a crucial role in determining the PSOE's vote share.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of the PSOE receiving more than 28.0% of the total votes in the 2023 Spanish general election to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% might be considered not confident enough, given the strong reasons why the PSOE might receive more than 28.0% of the votes. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is that the PSOE has historically received a significant share of the votes in Spanish general elections. Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding the election outcome and the complexity of the Spanish political landscape might warrant a more cautious approach.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will George Santos start an OnlyFans page featuring himself by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? The OnlyFans page must be verified and publicly accessible on the OnlyFans platform. Credible reporting from reputable news sources will be used in conjunction with OnlyFans to determine the resolution of this market. This question will be resolved based on the presence or absence of an OnlyFans page created by George Santos by the specified deadline.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength ratings):

- George Santos might not have the necessary personal or professional interest in creating an OnlyFans page. (Strength: 6/10)
- Creating an OnlyFans page could be seen as a distraction or a liability for someone with a public persona like George Santos, potentially harming his reputation or career prospects. (Strength: 7/10)
- George Santos might not have the necessary skills or experience to create engaging content for an OnlyFans page. (Strength: 5/10)
- He might not see a financial incentive in creating an OnlyFans page, given the potential earnings and the existing public scrutiny surrounding him. (Strength: 8/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength ratings):

- George Santos has a history of controversy and scandal, which could lead him to seek alternative revenue streams or attention through unconventional means like an OnlyFans page. (Strength: 8/10)
- The platform's potential for anonymity or pseudonymity might appeal to someone with a public persona like George Santos, who may want to explore creative expression outside of his public image. (Strength: 6/10)
- The current public attention surrounding George Santos could create a demand for more content from him, which he might fulfill through an OnlyFans page. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that the "no" side has slightly stronger arguments, mainly due to potential reputational and career concerns. However, the "yes" side has some plausible reasons, especially considering George Santos's history of controversy and potential desire for alternative revenue streams.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of George Santos starting an OnlyFans page by December 31, 2023, to be around 25%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
My initial probability seems somewhat conservative, given the potential for George Santos to seek attention or revenue through unconventional means. However, the base rate of people starting OnlyFans pages is relatively low, and the potential reputational risks associated with it might deter him. Considering these factors, the initial probability seems reasonable.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2023 NBA Finals Series 4-0 against the Miami Heat, thus sweeping the series? This market may immediately resolve to "No" if it becomes impossible for the Nuggets to win 4-0 (e.g., they lose a game). The resolution of this market is contingent on the outcome of the series between the Nuggets and the Heat, which is scheduled to conclude on June 11, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Historical context of NBA series sweeps**: The NBA has seen only a few instances of sweeps in the NBA Finals, with the Miami Heat being one of the teams that have managed to achieve this feat in the past. This implies that the Heat might have a chance to pull off a similar upset. (Strength: 40%)
- **Reason 2: The Heat's experience in the playoffs**: The Miami Heat have a history of performing well in the playoffs, often going on deep runs. Their experience and resilience might allow them to push the series to at least 4 games. (Strength: 35%)
- **Reason 3: The Nuggets' inconsistency**: The Denver Nuggets have shown inconsistency throughout the season and playoffs, which might affect their ability to maintain a high level of performance throughout the series. (Strength: 25%)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: The Nuggets' strong regular season performance**: The Denver Nuggets had a remarkable regular season, showcasing their dominance and consistency. This could translate to a strong performance in the NBA Finals. (Strength: 60%)
- **Reason 2: The Heat's injuries**: The Miami Heat have been plagued by injuries throughout the season, which might affect their ability to perform at their best in the series. (Strength: 40%)
- **Reason 3: The Nuggets' home-court advantage**: The Nuggets have a strong home-court advantage, which could give them an edge in the series. (Strength: 30%)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the Nuggets' strong regular season performance, injuries affecting the Heat, and the Nuggets' home-court advantage give them a significant advantage. However, the Heat's experience and the Nuggets' inconsistency could potentially impact the series. The historical context of NBA series sweeps and the Heat's resilience also need to be taken into account.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would initially predict a 55% chance that the Nuggets will sweep the Heat.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon further consideration, I realize that the initial probability might be too high. The Heat's experience and resilience, as well as the Nuggets' inconsistency, might be more significant factors than initially thought. The base rate of NBA series sweeps is also relatively low, which should temper our expectations. A more cautious approach might be warranted.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will 'The Marvels' (2023) gross more than $65 million domestically on its opening weekend? Based on the available information, I will be using the domestic weekend gross from Box Office Mojo under the "Domestic Weekend" tab for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews) for the USA and possibly Canada or other territories, to determine if 'The Marvels' (2023) has achieved this milestone. If there is no final data available by November 20, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, I will choose another credible resolution source. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'The Marvels' (2023) grosses more than $65,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend and to "No" otherwise.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) has seen a decline in box office performance in recent years, which might indicate a decrease in audience interest. (Strength: 4)
- The film's release date coincides with the start of the holiday season, which might divert attention and box office revenue towards other movies and events. (Strength: 3)
- The film's marketing campaign might not have been effective in generating sufficient buzz and excitement among audiences. (Strength: 2)
- The film's competition from other movies and streaming services might have a negative impact on its box office performance. (Strength: 3)
- The film's genre and target audience might not be as appealing to a wide range of viewers, limiting its box office potential. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The MCU has a massive and dedicated fan base, which will likely drive box office revenue for 'The Marvels' (2023). (Strength: 5)
- The film's trailers and marketing materials have generated significant excitement and anticipation among fans. (Strength: 4)
- The film's star-studded cast, including Brie Larson and Teyonah Parris, will likely attract a large audience. (Strength: 4)
- The film's release in IMAX and other premium formats will provide an additional revenue stream. (Strength: 3)
- The film's positive reviews and word-of-mouth will help to drive additional box office revenue. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I believe that the strength of the MCU brand and the excitement generated by the film's marketing campaign will drive box office revenue. However, the decline in box office performance of recent MCU movies and the competition from other movies and streaming services might limit the film's potential.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I estimate that the probability of 'The Marvels' (2023) grossing more than $65 million domestically on its opening weekend is 60%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
My initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, considering the mixed factors that might influence the film's box office performance. However, I should consider the base rate of the event, which is the typical box office performance of Marvel movies. Marvel movies usually perform well at the box office, with many grossing over $65 million on their opening weekend. This might suggest that the probability should be higher.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Steve Scalise be elected as the next permanent Speaker of the House of Representatives after Kevin McCarthy's ousting on October 3, 2023, by the time the House of Representatives convenes on or before June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, considering that unelected or temporary Speakers (such as Speaker Pro Tempore) will not be counted towards a "Yes" resolution?

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 6/10):
1. **Internal party divisions**: The Republican Party has been plagued by internal divisions, which might hinder their ability to elect a new Speaker. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Potential opposition from conservative Republicans**: Some conservative Republicans might resist Scalise's candidacy, potentially leading to a prolonged or unsuccessful Speaker election process. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **External factors**: External events, such as elections, scandals, or national crises, might distract from the Speaker election process or create an environment that makes it difficult for Scalise to be elected. (Strength: 4/10)
4. **Scalise's popularity among some Republicans**: Scalise's past votes on issues like immigration and gun control might make him unpopular among some conservative Republicans, potentially affecting his chances of being elected Speaker. (Strength: 4/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 8/10):
1. **Scalise's experience and seniority**: As the House Majority Leader, Scalise has significant experience and seniority within the Republican Party, making him a strong candidate for Speaker. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Support from Kevin McCarthy**: As Scalise's predecessor, McCarthy might support him as the next Speaker, which could help secure his election. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Republican Party unity**: While there are internal divisions, the Republican Party might rally behind Scalise as a unifying figure to move forward. (Strength: 6/10)
4. **Lack of alternative candidates**: Without a strong, alternative candidate, Scalise might be the most viable option for the Republican Party. (Strength: 5/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the most significant factors are Scalise's experience and seniority, as well as potential opposition from conservative Republicans. The Republican Party's internal divisions and external factors also play a role, but their impact is less clear. Overall, the balance of factors suggests that Scalise's chances of being elected as the next Speaker are relatively high.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation:
The calculated probability of 60 seems relatively confident, given the uncertainty surrounding the Speaker election process. However, it might be slightly overconfident, considering the potential for external factors and internal party divisions to affect the outcome. The base rate of the event is also relatively low, as Speaker elections are often unpredictable and can be influenced by various factors.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Sally Kornbluth remain as the President of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) until 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2023, according to official statements from MIT or a consensus of credible reporting? If she departs from office before the expiry date, the market will resolve immediately to "No".

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No":

* Reason 1: Sally Kornbluth's health issues (Strength: 3/10) - Although there is no public information available about her health, it's possible that she might experience health issues that would require her to step down.
* Reason 2: Change in leadership or administration (Strength: 5/10) - MIT, like many institutions, undergoes changes in leadership and administration. If there's a shift in the administration, it might lead to Kornbluth's departure.
* Reason 3: Personal or professional conflicts (Strength: 2/10) - Kornbluth might face personal or professional conflicts that would make it difficult for her to continue as the President of MIT.
* Reason 4: External factors (Strength: 4/10) - External factors like economic downturns, scandals, or changes in government policies might lead to Kornbluth's departure.

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes":

* Reason 1: Lack of information about her term (Strength: 8/10) - There is no public information about Kornbluth's term as the President of MIT, suggesting that she might be serving a fixed term or has a long-term appointment.
* Reason 2: No recent announcements of departure (Strength: 9/10) - There is no credible reporting or official statement from MIT about Kornbluth's departure, which suggests that she is still in her position.
* Reason 3: No apparent reasons for her departure (Strength: 7/10) - There are no apparent reasons or controversies that would lead to Kornbluth's departure, suggesting that she might continue as the President of MIT.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the lack of information about Kornbluth's term and the absence of any credible reporting about her departure are strong indicators that she might remain as the President of MIT until the end of 2023. However, external factors, health issues, and personal or professional conflicts cannot be ruled out entirely.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would assign an initial probability of 80% that Sally Kornbluth will remain as the President of MIT until 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2023.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability might be excessively confident, as external factors, health issues, and personal or professional conflicts could still lead to Kornbluth's departure. Additionally, the base rate of the event is unknown, and there might be other factors that are not considered here.

7. Final prediction:
*0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a candidate participating in the GOP debate scheduled for September 27, 2023, make an explicitly racist statement during the debate, defined as comments that directly discriminate, degrade, or express prejudice towards a particular race? The resolution source will be live video of the debate, with official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting considered in case of ambiguity. If the debate is cancelled or delayed beyond October 4, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No."

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Strength: 60
Reason: The Republican Party has been working to distance itself from racist ideologies in recent years, and many prominent candidates have publicly denounced racism. This might lead to a more measured and polished performance from the candidates during the debate.

- Strength: 40
Reason: The debate format often involves a high level of scrutiny, and candidates may be cautious about making inflammatory statements that could harm their reputation or chances of winning the election.

- Strength: 20
Reason: The debate may be heavily moderated, with a focus on keeping the conversation civil and on-topic, which could reduce the likelihood of racist comments.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Strength: 80
Reason: The Republican Party has a history of controversy surrounding racist comments from its members, and some candidates may not be as careful in their language, particularly if they feel pressured to appeal to their base.

- Strength: 60
Reason: The debate may create a high-stakes environment where candidates feel the need to differentiate themselves and make bold statements, which could lead to unintended and hurtful comments.

- Strength: 40
Reason: Some candidates may be more prone to making racist comments due to their past behavior or lack of self-awareness, and the debate may bring these tendencies to the forefront.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, there is a moderate likelihood of a candidate making an explicitly racist statement during the debate. While the Republican Party's efforts to distance itself from racism and the high level of scrutiny during the debate may reduce the likelihood, the party's history of controversy and the high-stakes environment of the debate increase the likelihood.

5. Initial probability:
70

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 70 seems reasonable, given the mixed reasons for and against a candidate making an explicitly racist statement. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of such events and the potential for candidates to make unintentional or poorly phrased comments that could be misinterpreted as racist.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will any of the candidates participating in the RNC primary debate on August 23, 2023, say the word "Bidenomics" during the live debate? If the debate is cancelled or delayed beyond September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is live video of the debate, and in case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered. The pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):
- The candidates might be focusing on other issues and avoid using the term "Bidenomics" to avoid controversy or to present themselves as distinct from the incumbent administration (Strength: 4).
- The debate format and time constraints might not provide opportunities for candidates to discuss or mention "Bidenomics" (Strength: 3).
- The term "Bidenomics" might be seen as too closely associated with the incumbent administration, and candidates might choose not to use it to maintain a neutral stance (Strength: 4).
- The candidates might be more focused on their own economic policies and proposals rather than criticizing or referencing the incumbent's policies (Strength: 3).
- The debate moderators might not ask questions or topics that would naturally lead to the mention of "Bidenomics" (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):
- The candidates might see "Bidenomics" as a valid target for criticism or a way to differentiate themselves from the incumbent administration (Strength: 5).
- The debate might touch on economic issues that are closely related to "Bidenomics," such as inflation, jobs, or economic growth (Strength: 4).
- The candidates might use the term "Bidenomics" as a shorthand to refer to the incumbent administration's economic policies, which could be a common talking point in the debate (Strength: 4).
- The debate might include questions or topics that are likely to elicit a response from the candidates that includes the term "Bidenomics" (Strength: 3).
- The candidates might feel pressure to respond to criticisms or attacks from their opponents that involve the term "Bidenomics" (Strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both yes and no, it seems that the debate format, the candidates' strategies, and the topics discussed could all influence the likelihood of the term "Bidenomics" being mentioned. The strength of the reasons for a yes outcome seems to outweigh those for a no outcome, but there are still significant uncertainties.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of a candidate saying "Bidenomics" during the debate as 60.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
The initial probability seems to be a reasonable estimate, but it might be considered not confident enough given the potential for controversy and the focus on economic issues in the debate. However, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a candidate mentioning a specific term in a debate) is unknown, and it's difficult to estimate. Additionally, the debate's tone and dynamics could influence the outcome.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the 2023 film 'Oppenheimer' gross more than $65,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend in the domestic box office, as reported by Box Office Mojo, considering its release on July 21, 2023? This prediction will be based on the final numbers for the weekend of July 21-23, and if no final data is available by July 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible source will be chosen for resolution.

Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
1. The film is a biographical drama about a historical figure, which might not appeal to a broad audience, potentially limiting its box office performance. (Strength: 6/10)
2. The film's runtime is 3 hours and 5 minutes, which might deter some viewers who prefer shorter movies. (Strength: 4/10)
3. The film's subject matter might not be of interest to a large portion of the general audience, potentially affecting its box office performance. (Strength: 7/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
1. The film is directed by Christopher Nolan, known for his complex and engaging storytelling, which often attracts a large and dedicated audience. (Strength: 9/10)
2. The film features a talented cast, including Cillian Murphy and Emily Blunt, which could attract viewers interested in the performances. (Strength: 8/10)
3. The film's release coincides with a relatively quiet summer season, potentially allowing it to stand out and attract a larger audience. (Strength: 6/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the film's chances of success seem uncertain. The potential drawbacks, such as the subject matter and runtime, might limit its appeal, while the strengths, such as the director and cast, could attract a large audience. Overall, the situation is balanced, but slightly leaning towards a positive outcome.

Initial probability: 52

Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 52 seems reasonable, given the balanced considerations. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the strengths of the film's cast and director. Additionally, the base rate of films grossing over $65 million on their opening weekend is relatively high, which should be taken into account.

Final prediction: *0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the number of confirmed employee resignations from OpenAI by November 24, 2023, at 11:59 PM ET be greater than 500? This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are over 500 voluntary departures from current positions within the organization by the specified deadline. A resignation is defined as a voluntary departure from a current position within the organization. Confirmation of resignations must come from official OpenAI announcements, credible news reporting, or direct statements from the individuals involved. This market may stay open past the deadline until it is unambiguous as to whether the number of resignations before the specified date was over or under 500.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- Reason 1: OpenAI has been working to improve its internal culture and employee satisfaction, which could potentially lead to fewer resignations (Strength: 40%).
- Reason 2: The company has been expanding rapidly, and some employees might be leaving due to the challenges associated with scaling up, but this could also lead to more new hires, which might balance out the number of resignations (Strength: 30%).
- Reason 3: The market for AI talent is highly competitive, and OpenAI might be able to retain its employees due to its competitive compensation and benefits packages (Strength: 20%).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- Reason 1: The recent mass layoffs in the tech industry, including other AI companies, might lead to a wave of employees seeking new opportunities, including at OpenAI (Strength: 60%).
- Reason 2: OpenAI's rapid growth and high expectations might lead to burnout and turnover among employees (Strength: 50%).
- Reason 3: The company's internal struggles, such as reports of a toxic work environment, could lead to a significant number of resignations (Strength: 40%).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the balance of evidence leans towards a higher number of resignations, but the strength of the reasons for "yes" and "no" is relatively evenly matched. However, the recent mass layoffs in the tech industry and the high expectations placed on OpenAI might contribute to a higher number of resignations.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of over 500 confirmed employee resignations from OpenAI by November 24, 2023, to be around 55%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be too high given the relatively evenly matched strength of the reasons for "yes" and "no." Additionally, the base rate of employee turnover in the tech industry is relatively high, which might suggest a lower probability of over 500 resignations.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Sergei Shoigu remain the Russian Minister of Defense without interruption from June 24, 2023, through July 1, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, according to official information from the Russian government or a consensus of credible reporting? This question will resolve to "Yes" if there is no official announcement or credible reporting of his removal, resignation, or replacement as the Russian Minister of Defense during this time period. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Health issues (Strength: 6/10)**: Sergei Shoigu's health has been a concern in the past, and if he were to experience a severe health issue, it could potentially lead to his removal or replacement as the Minister of Defense.
- **Reason 2: Putin's leadership changes (Strength: 8/10)**: Vladimir Putin has made significant changes to his cabinet in the past, and if he decides to shake up his government, Shoigu might be replaced.
- **Reason 3: International pressure or sanctions (Strength: 4/10)**: International pressure or sanctions could lead to a change in the Russian government, potentially affecting Shoigu's position.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Shoigu's long tenure (Strength: 9/10)**: Sergei Shoigu has been the Minister of Defense since 2012, and his tenure suggests a high level of stability and confidence in his position.
- **Reason 2: Putin's loyalty to Shoigu (Strength: 8/10)**: Vladimir Putin has shown loyalty to Shoigu in the past, and it's possible that he will continue to support him in his role.
- **Reason 3: Lack of recent changes (Strength: 7/10)**: There hasn't been any recent news or announcements about Shoigu's removal or replacement, suggesting that he might continue in his position.

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the reasons above, the most significant factor is Shoigu's long tenure and Putin's loyalty to him. However, the possibility of health issues or international pressure cannot be ruled out entirely. The strength of the reasons for a "Yes" outcome seems slightly higher than the reasons for a "No" outcome.

5. Initial probability: 70

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability: The initial probability seems reasonable, considering the factors mentioned above. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is not explicitly provided. Without knowing the typical turnover rate of the Russian Minister of Defense, it's challenging to assess the likelihood of Shoigu's removal. Additionally, the probability might be influenced by the fact that this question is focused on a specific time period, which could be a relatively short time frame for a cabinet change.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Sam Altman (@sama) post a new tweet on his verified Twitter account (@sama) between November 17, 2023, 1:00 PM ET and November 19, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? For the purpose of this question, all original tweets, including quote and reply posts, will be considered as a "Yes" resolution, but reposts will not be counted. The resolution source for this market will be Sam Altman's verified Twitter account, and only tweets from this account will be considered.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- Sam Altman might be taking a break from social media, including Twitter, due to personal reasons or a pre-planned absence. (Strength: 4)
- He might be busy with work or other commitments, such as meetings or events, and does not have time to tweet. (Strength: 3)
- Sam Altman could be dealing with a personal or professional crisis that makes it difficult for him to maintain his social media presence. (Strength: 2)
- He might be intentionally avoiding Twitter due to controversy or backlash. (Strength: 1)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- Sam Altman is an active Twitter user and regularly shares updates and insights about his work and life. (Strength: 5)
- As the CEO of Y Combinator, he might have a strong incentive to maintain a public presence and engage with his followers. (Strength: 4)
- Sam Altman often uses Twitter to share his opinions and engage in discussions, which suggests he values the platform. (Strength: 4)
- He has a large following and might want to maintain his online presence to stay connected with his audience. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Taking into account the reasons for both a "Yes" and "No" outcome, it seems that Sam Altman's active Twitter presence and his role as the CEO of Y Combinator suggest that he is likely to tweet between November 17 and 19. However, the possibility of personal or professional commitments, or a pre-planned absence, could prevent him from doing so.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be 70.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Considering the initial probability, it seems relatively high but not excessively confident. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is not explicitly provided. Assuming a typical Twitter user might tweet around 1-2 times a day, the base rate of Sam Altman tweeting within the given timeframe is likely higher due to his active Twitter presence. However, without a specific base rate, it's challenging to adjust the initial probability.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the initial probability and the evaluation, the final prediction is: *0.70*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will definitive evidence be released by November 30, 11:59 PM ET, showing that at least one of the reasons Sam Altman was fired as CEO of OpenAI was for the sexual abuse of his sister?

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. Sam Altman's firing was a complex decision with multiple factors involved (Strength: 4). OpenAI's board of directors might have cited various reasons for his dismissal, and it's possible that his sister's abuse allegations were not a primary or even a secondary reason. 
2. There is no publicly available information about Sam Altman's sister being abused (Strength: 2). Without concrete evidence, it's difficult to make a definitive claim about the reason for his firing.
3. OpenAI might have other reasons for not releasing information about the reason for Sam Altman's firing (Strength: 3). The company might be protecting its reputation or avoiding a public scandal, which could prevent the release of information about the alleged abuse.
4. Sam Altman might not have abused his sister (Strength: 5). The initial claim might be unfounded or false, and there is no concrete evidence to support it.

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. OpenAI's decision to fire Sam Altman might be highly publicized, and the company might be forced to reveal the reasons behind it (Strength: 4). If the allegations of abuse are true, it's possible that the company will release information to avoid further controversy.
2. Sam Altman's departure from OpenAI might be a result of a thorough investigation (Strength: 4). If the investigation found evidence of abuse, it's likely that the company will release the information to justify his firing.
3. Sam Altman's personal reputation and public image might be severely damaged if the allegations are true (Strength: 3). He might be more likely to release information or admit to the allegations to clear his name or avoid further damage to his reputation.

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the above points, I believe that the answer might be no, as there is no concrete evidence to support the allegations, and OpenAI might have multiple reasons for firing Sam Altman. However, the possibility of the allegations being true and the company releasing information about it cannot be ruled out entirely.

Initial probability: 20

Evaluation of the calculated probability:
My initial probability of 20% might be too low, given the potential severity of the allegations. However, without concrete evidence, it's difficult to assign a higher probability. I should also consider the base rate of false allegations and the possibility of a thorough investigation clearing Sam Altman's name.

Final prediction: *0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Joe Biden's approval rating as reported by FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator on January 7, 2024, be less than 38.5%? The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve according to the datapoint for January 7 as soon as a datapoint for January 8 becomes available. If no datapoint for January 7 is available by January 10, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous approval rating to January 7. The approval rating value is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). This is the level of precision used when resolving the market.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Biden's approval ratings have been relatively stable in the past year, with some fluctuations. This stability might indicate that his rating is not likely to drop below 38.5% (Strength: 3).
- Biden's approval ratings have shown some improvement in recent months, suggesting that his popularity might be increasing (Strength: 2).
- The US economy has been performing relatively well, which could contribute to a higher approval rating (Strength: 2).
- Biden's approval ratings are often influenced by various factors, including his handling of specific issues, the state of the economy, and national events. If these factors remain favorable, his rating might not drop below 38.5% (Strength: 4).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Biden's approval ratings have been volatile in the past, and a decline below 38.5% is within the realm of possibility (Strength: 4).
- The US economy has faced challenges, such as inflation and rising interest rates, which might negatively impact Biden's approval rating (Strength: 4).
- Biden's handling of specific issues, such as the border crisis or the Ukraine-Russia conflict, might be perceived negatively by the public, contributing to a lower approval rating (Strength: 3).
- The 2024 presidential election is approaching, and a low approval rating could make it more challenging for Biden to win re-election (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the factors mentioned above, the answer might be yes, but there are also some reasons to believe it might be no. The stability of Biden's approval ratings and the recent improvements might suggest a higher rating, while the volatility, economic challenges, and handling of specific issues might indicate a lower rating.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of the answer being yes as 55%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 55% seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident. The reasons for a lower rating are strong, but the factors contributing to a higher rating should not be dismissed. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of Biden's approval rating being below 38.5% on January 7) is not provided, which might affect the forecast.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will all current board members of OpenAI as of November 19 (Ilya Sutskever, Adam D'Angelo, Helen Toner, Tasha McCauley) officially step down from their positions or be replaced by the OpenAI management by November 26, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official OpenAI communication or credible news sources?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- The current board members may have a strong desire to maintain their positions and influence within the company (Strength: 6).
- The process of replacing board members can be complex and time-consuming, and it may take longer than expected to complete (Strength: 8).
- The board members may have a significant amount of leverage and control within the company, making it difficult for them to be replaced (Strength: 9).
- There may be a lack of clear succession planning or a suitable replacement for the current board members (Strength: 5).
- The company may not have a clear reason to replace the current board members, and they may be performing their duties adequately (Strength: 4).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- There may be internal conflicts or disagreements within the company that lead to the resignation of the current board members (Strength: 7).
- The company may be undergoing significant changes or restructuring, which could lead to the replacement of the current board members (Strength: 8).
- The current board members may have been involved in controversies or scandals that could lead to their removal (Strength: 6).
- There may be a desire for a fresh perspective or new leadership within the company (Strength: 5).
- The company may be experiencing financial difficulties or performance issues that could lead to a change in leadership (Strength: 8).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the balance of evidence suggests that the answer is more likely to be "no" than "yes". The strong reasons for the answer being "no" (replacing board members can be complex, the board members have leverage and control, and a lack of clear succession planning) outweigh the reasons for the answer being "yes" (internal conflicts, company changes, controversies, desire for fresh perspective, and financial difficulties).

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the answer being "yes" to be around 20%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability of 20% seems to be relatively low, considering the potential for internal conflicts, company changes, and controversies that could lead to the replacement of the current board members. However, the strong reasons for the answer being "no" (complexity of replacing board members, leverage and control, and lack of clear succession planning) provide a counterbalance to this. Considering the base rate of board member changes in similar companies, the probability might be slightly higher.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Party for Freedom (PVV) win a plurality in the 2023 Dutch General Election, securing more seats in the House of Representatives than any other party, according to the final results? The resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the government of the Netherlands and/or the official website of the Dutch electoral council (XXXX) used in case of ambiguity. If the election results are not finalized by April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to a 50-50 probability.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The PVV has historically struggled to maintain a strong position in Dutch politics, with the party's popularity often being volatile and influenced by various factors. (Strength: 4)
- The Dutch political landscape is known for its fragmentation, with multiple parties often holding significant power, making it challenging for any single party to secure a clear plurality. (Strength: 4)
- The PVV has faced internal conflicts and controversies in the past, which might have negatively impacted its public image and voter support. (Strength: 3)
- The 2023 election is expected to be influenced by various national and international issues, such as the economic crisis and the Ukraine-Russia conflict, which might not favor the PVV's ideology. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The PVV has a dedicated and loyal voter base, which has consistently supported the party despite its fluctuations in popularity. (Strength: 4)
- The party's leader, Geert Wilders, is a well-known and charismatic figure in Dutch politics, which might contribute to the PVV's appeal to voters. (Strength: 3)
- The PVV has been successful in tapping into public concerns about immigration and national identity, which are significant issues in the Netherlands. (Strength: 4)
- The PVV has a strong grassroots presence and a well-organized campaign, which might help the party mobilize its supporters and attract new voters. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The PVV has a history of volatility and fragmentation in Dutch politics, which makes it challenging for the party to secure a clear plurality. However, the party's dedicated voter base, charismatic leader, and ability to tap into public concerns might contribute to its success. The Dutch political landscape is complex, and various factors will influence the outcome of the election.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 40% seems reasonable, considering the complexity of the Dutch political landscape and the PVV's history of volatility. However, this probability might be too low, as the PVV has shown resilience and adaptability in the past. Additionally, the party's ability to tap into public concerns and mobilize its supporters might be underestimated.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the MrBeast YouTube channel (XXXX) reach 200 million subscribers by November 23, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, considering historical growth trends, YouTube algorithm changes, and the creator's past performances and strategies? The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (XXXX) or a consensus of credible reporting.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

- **Reason 1:** MrBeast's growth rate might slow down due to the increasing competition on YouTube, making it difficult to sustain a rapid growth rate. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 2:** The YouTube algorithm might change in a way that negatively affects MrBeast's content or engagement, leading to a decrease in subscribers. (Strength: 4/10)
- **Reason 3:** MrBeast might experience a period of content drought or a decrease in the quality of his content, leading to a loss of subscribers. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 4:** MrBeast's audience might become saturated, and the channel's growth might plateau or decline. (Strength: 7/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

- **Reason 1:** MrBeast has consistently demonstrated a strong ability to create engaging content and adapt to changes in the YouTube algorithm, which has contributed to his rapid growth. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 2:** MrBeast has a large and dedicated fan base, which will likely continue to support and subscribe to the channel. (Strength: 9/10)
- **Reason 3:** MrBeast has a strong track record of collaborations and giveaways, which can help attract new subscribers and increase engagement. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 4:** The YouTube algorithm has been favoring creators with high engagement and watch time, and MrBeast consistently achieves both. (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the primary factors that will influence MrBeast's growth are his ability to adapt to the YouTube algorithm, the quality of his content, and his ability to maintain a strong engagement with his audience. While there are some potential risks, such as a decrease in growth rate or a change in the algorithm, MrBeast's past performances and strategies suggest that he will continue to grow and reach 200 million subscribers by November 23, 2023.

5. Initial probability: 80

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability of 80 seems relatively high, considering the potential risks mentioned earlier. However, it is essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is that it is highly unlikely for a YouTube channel to reach 200 million subscribers. This might make the probability seem more reasonable. Additionally, MrBeast's past performances and the current state of the YouTube platform suggest that he has a high chance of reaching this milestone.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Trzecia Droga (TD), a Polish political party, receive more than 11% of the votes in the 2023 Polish parliamentary elections, which are scheduled to take place on October 15, 2023? The results of this election will determine the number of seats Trzecia Droga will have in the Sejm. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trzecia Droga gets over 11% of the votes. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the results of the election are not known by April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, official information from the Polish government and/or information published through the official website of Poland's National Electoral Commission (PKW) will be used.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Trzecia Droga is a relatively new and smaller party in Polish politics (Strength: 4). It might not have the same level of recognition and support as larger parties like Law and Justice (PiS) or Civic Coalition (KO).
- The Polish political landscape is highly polarized, and voters might stick to their traditional choices (Strength: 4). This could make it difficult for Trzecia Droga to gain significant support.
- The party's platform and ideology might not resonate with a large portion of the Polish electorate (Strength: 3). If the party's message is not clear or appealing to a broad audience, it might struggle to gain traction.
- The Polish electoral system might not favor smaller parties like Trzecia Droga (Strength: 3). The system could make it difficult for them to win seats in the Sejm.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Trzecia Droga has a clear and distinct platform that might appeal to a significant portion of the Polish electorate (Strength: 4). If the party's message is well-received, it could attract a substantial number of voters.
- The party has a strong online presence and might be able to mobilize younger voters (Strength: 3). This could be an advantage in the digital age, where online engagement is increasingly important.
- Trzecia Droga has a charismatic leader who could help the party gain visibility and support (Strength: 3). A strong leader can make a significant difference in a party's popularity.
- The Polish electorate might be looking for a change from the traditional parties (Strength: 2). If voters are dissatisfied with the current political landscape, they might be open to supporting a new and alternative party like Trzecia Droga.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided above, the factors that might contribute to Trzecia Droga getting over 11% of the votes include a clear and distinct platform, a strong online presence, a charismatic leader, and a potential desire for change among the Polish electorate. However, the party's relatively new and smaller status, the polarized Polish political landscape, and the electoral system might work against it. Overall, while there are valid reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, the factors that might contribute to a "yes" outcome seem slightly more promising.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of Trzecia Droga getting over 11% of the votes at 40%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 40% seems reasonable, but it might be too cautious. The factors that contribute to a "yes" outcome seem more promising than those that contribute to a "no" outcome. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is the general likelihood of a new party gaining significant support in a highly polarized electoral landscape. This base rate is likely low, which might suggest that the initial probability should be adjusted downward.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the base rate and the factors that contribute to both a "yes" and "no" outcome, I would adjust the initial probability downward. My final prediction is: *0.30*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.3
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Egypt open its border with Gaza for Palestinian refugees by October 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, as indicated by official information from the Egyptian government or a consensus of credible reporting, through the opening of the Rafah border crossing, creation of a humanitarian corridor, or any other mechanism allowing the passage of Palestinian refugees directly into Egypt?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Egyptian Government's Historical Stance**: Egypt has historically been cautious in its approach to allowing refugees from Gaza into the country, often citing security concerns and the need to maintain border control. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 2: Regional Politics and Tensions**: The Middle East is known for its complex web of regional politics and tensions, which might make Egypt hesitant to open its border, especially if it could be seen as supporting Hamas or other Palestinian groups. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 3: Security Concerns and Border Control**: Egypt has invested heavily in border security, and opening the border could potentially compromise this control, creating a risk of terrorist infiltration or other security threats. (Strength: 8/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Humanitarian Crisis**: The humanitarian situation in Gaza is dire, and international pressure might force Egypt to reconsider its stance on opening the border to alleviate the suffering of Palestinian refugees. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 2: International Diplomatic Efforts**: Diplomatic efforts from the international community, including the United Nations and other countries, might persuade Egypt to open its border to provide humanitarian aid and alleviate the crisis. (Strength: 4/10)
- **Reason 3: Economic Benefits**: Allowing refugees to enter Egypt could provide economic benefits, such as increased trade and investment, which might outweigh the potential security concerns. (Strength: 3/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both "yes" and "no," it appears that the security concerns and regional politics are the most significant factors influencing Egypt's decision. While there are some potential benefits to opening the border, the risks and challenges seem to outweigh them. However, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and international diplomatic efforts might still push Egypt to reconsider its stance.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Egypt opening its border for Palestinian refugees by October 15, 2023, as 40%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too low, given the potential for international pressure and humanitarian concerns to influence Egypt's decision. However, the base rate of such events is relatively low, and the Egyptian government's historical stance and security concerns should not be underestimated.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will North Korea (DPRK) conduct a missile test between August 8, 2023, 9:00 AM ET and August 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- North Korea might be engaging in diplomatic efforts and avoiding provocative actions (Strength: 4). The country has shown a willingness to engage in diplomatic talks with other nations, which could lead to a temporary halt in missile testing.
- The international community might be exerting significant pressure on North Korea to refrain from missile testing (Strength: 4). The United Nations Security Council has imposed sanctions on North Korea, and other countries have expressed strong disapproval of its missile activities.
- North Korea might be focusing on other priorities, such as economic development or internal politics (Strength: 3). The country has been working to improve its economy and address internal issues, which could divert attention away from missile testing.
- The timing might not be favorable for a missile test (Strength: 2). August is a summer month, and the weather conditions might not be ideal for a test.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- North Korea has a history of conducting missile tests during this time of year (Strength: 5). The country has launched several missiles in August in the past, which suggests a pattern of behavior.
- The country might be seeking to demonstrate its military capabilities or respond to perceived threats (Strength: 5). North Korea has consistently used missile tests as a means to showcase its military prowess and respond to perceived threats from other nations.
- The current international environment might be conducive to a missile test (Strength: 4). Tensions between North Korea and other nations, particularly the United States, could lead to increased tensions and a higher likelihood of a missile test.
- North Korea might be testing new technologies or systems (Strength: 3). The country has been working on developing new missile systems, and a test could be an opportunity to showcase these advancements.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that North Korea's history of missile testing in August and its desire to demonstrate military capabilities are strong indicators of a potential test. However, the country's diplomatic efforts, international pressure, and other priorities might temper this likelihood. The timing of the question also suggests that the window for a test is relatively short, which could affect the country's ability to plan and execute a launch.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate an initial probability of 70% that North Korea will conduct a missile test between August 8 and August 31, 2023.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively confident, given the short time frame and the country's history of missile testing. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of North Korea's missile tests, which is relatively high. This might suggest that the initial probability is not excessively confident. Additionally, the country's diplomatic efforts and international pressure could still impact the likelihood of a test.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the United States Women's National Soccer Team win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup, which is scheduled to take place in Australia and New Zealand from July 20 to August 20, 2023? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the USA team emerges as the champion of the tournament. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The market will immediately resolve to "No" if the team is eliminated or has no path to victory based on the rules of the FIFA Women's World Cup 2023. If no champion is declared by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA, including official footage from the World Cup, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The United States Women's National Team has faced stiff competition in recent years, including losses to international teams like Sweden and the Netherlands in friendlies. (Strength: 3)
- The team has undergone some lineup changes and has been dealing with injuries to key players. (Strength: 2)
- The tournament will be held in Australia and New Zealand, which may give some teams an advantage due to the familiarity with the local conditions. (Strength: 2)
- The USA team has not been as dominant as they were in previous World Cups, and other teams may be catching up. (Strength: 3)
- The team's performance in the group stage and knockout rounds will be crucial in determining their chances of winning the tournament. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The United States Women's National Team has a strong squad with many experienced players who have performed well in previous World Cups. (Strength: 4)
- The team has been training and preparing for this tournament, and they have a good chance of beating any team in the world on a given day. (Strength: 5)
- The USA team has a strong coach and support staff who have experience in leading the team to success. (Strength: 3)
- The team's offense has been scoring goals consistently, which is crucial in a tournament where teams are often decided by small margins. (Strength: 4)
- The USA team has a strong team culture and a good balance of youth and experience, which could give them an edge over other teams. (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for both "yes" and "no," I think the USA team has a good chance of winning the tournament, but there are some concerns that could impact their performance. The team's experience, strong squad, and good coaching are all positives, but the competition will be fierce, and the team's recent losses to international teams and injuries to key players are concerns.

5. Initial probability:

Based on my analysis, I would estimate the probability of the USA team winning the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:

Upon further consideration, I think my initial probability might be too low. The USA team has a strong squad and a good chance of beating any team in the world on a given day. While there are some concerns, I think the team's experience and coaching will help them navigate the tournament and make a deep run. I also think the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of the USA team winning the World Cup) is relatively high, given their past performance and the strength of their squad.

7. Final prediction:

*0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Binance.com announce the listing of the $RLB token (Etherscan token address: 0x046eee2cc3188071c02bfc1745a6b17c656e3f3d) by August 18, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, regardless of whether the actual listing occurs?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Binance.com might not see $RLB as a valuable addition to their platform (Strength: 3). This could be due to various factors, such as the token's market capitalization, trading volume, or the overall demand for the token.
- Binance.com might have already decided not to list $RLB due to regulatory concerns or internal policies (Strength: 4). The cryptocurrency market is heavily regulated, and Binance.com might be hesitant to list tokens that don't meet their regulatory requirements or internal standards.
- Binance.com might be focusing on more prominent or popular tokens, leaving $RLB on the sidelines (Strength: 2). As a large exchange, Binance.com often prioritizes well-known and widely traded tokens over lesser-known ones.
- The $RLB token might not meet Binance.com's listing requirements, such as liquidity, trading volume, or market capitalization thresholds (Strength: 4). Binance.com typically has strict listing criteria to ensure a smooth and stable trading experience for their users.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Binance.com has a history of listing new tokens, and $RLB might be part of their ongoing efforts to expand their offerings (Strength: 4). Binance.com has listed numerous tokens in the past, and their willingness to do so might indicate a positive disposition towards listing $RLB.
- The $RLB token might have a strong community or developer backing, which could lead Binance.com to list it (Strength: 3). A strong community or developer support can be an attractive factor for exchanges looking to list new tokens.
- Binance.com might see $RLB as a strategic listing opportunity to tap into a specific market or user base (Strength: 3). By listing $RLB, Binance.com might be attempting to attract new users or expand their presence in a particular market.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for a "no" and a "yes" outcome, I think the most significant factors are Binance.com's listing requirements and their regulatory concerns. If $RLB meets Binance.com's listing requirements and doesn't pose any regulatory risks, it's more likely that they will list the token.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of Binance.com announcing the listing of $RLB by August 18, 2023, to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
My initial probability might be overly optimistic, as it doesn't take into account the base rate of Binance.com listing new tokens. While Binance.com has listed numerous tokens in the past, it's essential to consider that they receive many listing requests and can be selective about which tokens to list.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will George Santos, the U.S. Representative from New York's 3rd congressional district, be officially expelled from the U.S. House of Representatives by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, as a result of a formal vote by the House of Representatives, or will he cease to be a member of Congress through resignation, death, or another means before the end of 2023? This question will resolve based on official resolutions from the House of Representatives and credible reporting from the Government of the United States.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Reason 1: George Santos has not been charged or convicted of any crimes that would necessitate his expulsion from Congress. (Strength: 2)
- Reason 2: The U.S. House of Representatives has not shown a strong appetite for expelling members in the past, and the process is typically reserved for extreme cases. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 3: The Democratic Party controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and they may not have the necessary votes to expel George Santos. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 4: George Santos has been facing multiple investigations, but it is unclear whether these investigations will lead to his expulsion. (Strength: 2)
- Reason 5: The U.S. Constitution requires a two-thirds majority vote in the House of Representatives to expel a member, which might be difficult to achieve. (Strength: 5)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Reason 1: George Santos has been under intense scrutiny and investigation for various allegations, including lying about his background and involvement in a Ponzi scheme. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 2: The Democratic Party, which controls the U.S. House of Representatives, has been critical of George Santos and may seek to expel him. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 3: The House Ethics Committee has been investigating George Santos, and their findings could lead to his expulsion. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 4: There have been several calls for George Santos to resign or be expelled from Congress, including from some Republican lawmakers. (Strength: 2)
- Reason 5: The public pressure and media scrutiny on George Santos could lead to a vote to expel him. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons why the answer might be no (reasons 1-5) have a total strength rating of 20, while the reasons why the answer might be yes (reasons 1-5) have a total strength rating of 16. However, the strength of the reasons is not the only factor to consider. The fact that the Democratic Party controls the House of Representatives and has been critical of George Santos gives them the power to expel him if they choose to do so. Additionally, the public pressure and media scrutiny on George Santos could lead to a vote to expel him.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of George Santos being expelled from Congress by December 31, 2023, at 40.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 may be too low, considering the Democratic Party's control of the House of Representatives and their criticism of George Santos. Additionally, the public pressure and media scrutiny on George Santos could lead to a vote to expel him. However, the process of expulsion is complex and requires a two-thirds majority vote, which might be difficult to achieve. Therefore, the initial probability might be a reasonable starting point.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will 'The Marvels' (2023) gross more than $45 million domestically on its opening weekend, based on the final numbers reported by Box Office Mojo under the 'Domestic Weekend' tab for the 3-day weekend (including Thursday's previews) from November 10 to 12? If there is no final data available by November 20, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The market will resolve to "Yes" if 'The Marvels' (2023) meets the specified grossing requirement, and to "No" otherwise.

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. The Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) fatigue (Strength: 3): The MCU has been releasing movies at an increasingly rapid pace, which might lead to audience fatigue and decreased box office performance. (However, this is somewhat mitigated by the fact that 'The Marvels' is a sequel to a successful film and has a built-in fanbase.)
2. Competition from other movies (Strength: 4): There might be other movies released around the same time that could draw away potential viewers from 'The Marvels', reducing its box office performance.
3. General decline in movie theater attendance (Strength: 2): Movie theater attendance has been declining in recent years, which could negatively impact the box office performance of 'The Marvels'.
4. Uncertainty about the movie's quality (Strength: 1): There is always some uncertainty about how well a movie will be received by audiences and critics, which could affect its box office performance.

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. The success of previous MCU movies (Strength: 5): The MCU has had a string of successful movies, and 'The Marvels' is likely to benefit from the goodwill and excitement surrounding the franchise.
2. Strong marketing campaign (Strength: 4): The marketing campaign for 'The Marvels' is likely to be extensive and well-funded, which could help generate buzz and attract viewers.
3. Built-in fanbase (Strength: 4): 'The Marvels' is a sequel to 'Captain Marvel', which has a dedicated fanbase, and is likely to attract viewers who are interested in the franchise.
4. Positive word-of-mouth (Strength: 3): If 'The Marvels' receives positive reviews and word-of-mouth, it could help drive box office performance.

Aggregate considerations: Considering the strength of the reasons for both a "yes" and a "no" answer, I think that the reasons for a "yes" answer are stronger. The success of previous MCU movies, strong marketing campaign, built-in fanbase, and potential positive word-of-mouth all suggest that 'The Marvels' is likely to perform well at the box office. However, the possibility of MCU fatigue, competition from other movies, and general decline in movie theater attendance are potential risks that could impact the movie's performance.

Initial probability: 75

Evaluation of initial probability: My initial probability of 75% seems reasonable, but it might be too confident given the uncertainty surrounding the movie's quality and the potential risks mentioned above. I should also consider the base rate of movies grossing more than $45 million on their opening weekend, which is likely to be relatively high.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, initiated on November 24, 2023, at 7 AM IST (Israeli Standard Time), as part of a hostage/prisoner exchange deal, last for at least 8 full days (192 consecutive hours) without any significant escalation or major violations from either side? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ceasefire holds, and to "No" if it does not. The primary source of resolution will be a consensus of credible information and reporting.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):

- **Reason 1: History of previous ceasefires**: The history of failed or short-lived ceasefires between Hamas and Israel suggests that the current agreement might not last long. Strength: 6/10.
- **Reason 2: Fundamental differences in goals and ideologies**: Hamas and Israel have fundamentally different goals and ideologies, which can lead to disagreements and conflicts. Strength: 8/10.
- **Reason 3: External factors**: External factors, such as regional tensions or international pressure, might affect the ceasefire agreement. Strength: 5/10.
- **Reason 4: Hamas's past actions**: Hamas has been known to engage in provocative actions, which can lead to a breakdown in the ceasefire. Strength: 7/10.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):

- **Reason 1: The prisoner exchange aspect**: The inclusion of a prisoner exchange in the agreement might provide a strong incentive for both sides to maintain the ceasefire. Strength: 9/10.
- **Reason 2: International pressure**: International pressure and diplomatic efforts might help maintain the ceasefire. Strength: 6/10.
- **Reason 3: Ceasefire agreement specifics**: The specifics of the ceasefire agreement, such as the terms and conditions, might be designed to prevent major escalations. Strength: 8/10.
- **Reason 4: Hamas's desire for stability**: Hamas might desire stability and an end to the conflict, which could lead them to maintain the ceasefire. Strength: 7/10.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the factors pointing towards a "No" answer seem more significant, but the prisoner exchange aspect and Hamas's desire for stability might provide a strong foundation for the ceasefire to hold. However, the history of previous ceasefires and Hamas's past actions suggest that the agreement might not last long.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems relatively neutral, considering the mixed reasons for both "Yes" and "No." However, this might not be cautious enough, given the history of failed ceasefires between Hamas and Israel. A more conservative approach might be warranted, considering the base rate of failed ceasefires in this context.

7. Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the total number of times the word "China" (including its plural and possessive forms, such as "Chinese" is not included) is said by the candidates during the 2nd RNC primary debate scheduled for September 27, 2023, be 15 or more? If the debate is cancelled or delayed beyond October 27, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No." 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- The debate may not be focused heavily on international trade or foreign policy, reducing the likelihood of the word "China" being mentioned frequently. (Strength: 6/10)
- The candidates may not want to draw attention to the topic of China, potentially reducing the number of mentions. (Strength: 5/10)
- The debate format and time constraints may limit the number of times candidates can speak, reducing the opportunity for mentions of China. (Strength: 7/10)
- The candidates may choose to focus on domestic issues rather than international topics, reducing the likelihood of mentions of China. (Strength: 6/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- The ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical competition between the US and China make it a highly relevant and timely topic. (Strength: 9/10)
- The candidates may want to appeal to voters concerned about China's economic and security influence, leading to increased mentions of the country. (Strength: 8/10)
- The debate may focus on economic issues, and China is a significant player in the global economy, increasing the likelihood of mentions. (Strength: 8/10)
- The candidates may use China as a scapegoat for domestic issues, leading to increased mentions of the country. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" outcome, it seems that the factors pointing towards a "yes" outcome are stronger. The ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical competition between the US and China make it a highly relevant topic, and the candidates may want to appeal to voters concerned about China's influence. However, the debate format and time constraints, as well as the potential for domestic-focused discussions, may limit the number of mentions.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the answer being "yes" at 70.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability seems relatively confident, but not excessively so. The factors pointing towards a "yes" outcome are strong, but the debate format and time constraints could still limit the number of mentions. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of the word "China" being mentioned at least 15 times in a debate) is difficult to estimate, but it's likely relatively low.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will any of the candidates participating in the Republican National Committee (RNC) primary debate on August 23, 2023, mention or reference the word "Bitcoin" at any point during the debate, including in a pluralized or possessive form, according to the live video of the debate, and in the case of ambiguity, official transcripts and/or credible reporting? If the debate is cancelled or delayed beyond September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, 5 being the strongest):
- The RNC primary debate might focus more on domestic policy issues, with less emphasis on cryptocurrency or finance (strength: 4).
- The candidates might not see Bitcoin as a significant or relevant topic for the primary debate (strength: 4).
- The debate format might be too structured or time-constrained to allow for in-depth discussions of cryptocurrency (strength: 3).
- The candidates might be hesitant to discuss Bitcoin due to its association with controversy or uncertainty (strength: 3).
- The debate might be heavily moderated, limiting the opportunity for candidates to freely discuss various topics, including Bitcoin (strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, 5 being the strongest):
- Bitcoin has gained significant attention and popularity in recent years, making it a plausible topic for discussion (strength: 4).
- Some candidates might see Bitcoin as a relevant issue for their platform, especially those with a libertarian or free-market leaning (strength: 4).
- The debate might include questions or topics related to financial regulation, technology, or economic policy, which could lead to mentions of Bitcoin (strength: 3).
- Some candidates might use Bitcoin as an example or analogy to discuss broader economic or financial issues (strength: 3).
- The debate might be watched by a large audience, and candidates might be eager to appeal to younger or tech-savvy voters who are interested in cryptocurrency (strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both "yes" and "no", it seems that the debate might not be a significant opportunity for candidates to discuss Bitcoin, given the potential focus on more traditional domestic policy issues. However, the growing popularity of Bitcoin and its relevance to economic and financial discussions might still lead to some mentions. The strength of the "no" reasons seems slightly higher, but the "yes" reasons are not negligible.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the initial probability of a candidate mentioning Bitcoin during the debate to be around 40%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively low, considering the potential relevance of Bitcoin to economic and financial discussions. However, the "no" reasons seem stronger, and the debate's focus on domestic policy issues might limit the opportunity for candidates to discuss cryptocurrency. The base rate of candidates mentioning Bitcoin in debates is unknown, but it's likely to be relatively low. Considering these factors, the initial probability might be slightly too high.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the LK-99 room temperature, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before August 15, 2023, considering the potential for a high volume of attempts given the relatively low cost of the materials used and their availability on Amazon, which may lead to a faster-than-usual rate of replication attempts? The resolution criteria for this question are not provided.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength of each reason: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- The materials used in the paper might be more challenging to work with than expected, even if they are cheaper and more available (strength: 6).
- Replication attempts might be hindered by the complexity of the experimental setup and the need for specialized equipment (strength: 8).
- The research community might be cautious about the claims made in the paper, leading to a slower-than-expected pace of replication attempts (strength: 4).
- The authors of the original paper might not provide sufficient information for a reliable replication, hindering the replication process (strength: 7).
- The high volume of replication attempts might not necessarily lead to successful replications, as many attempts may fail (strength: 5).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength of each reason: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- The low cost and availability of the materials used in the paper will indeed lead to a high volume of replication attempts (strength: 9).
- The community's excitement and interest in the discovery will drive a rapid pace of replication attempts (strength: 8).
- The materials used in the paper are relatively simple to obtain and work with, making it easier for researchers to attempt replication (strength: 6).
- The pre-print nature of the paper will facilitate rapid dissemination of information and collaboration among researchers, potentially leading to a faster replication rate (strength: 7).
- The scientific community's desire to validate or refute the claims made in the paper will drive a high volume of replication attempts (strength: 9).

4. Aggregated considerations: 
Considering the strength of each reason, it seems that the factors pointing towards a "yes" are stronger than those pointing towards a "no." However, the complexity of the experimental setup and the potential for the authors to not provide sufficient information for a reliable replication are significant concerns. The high volume of replication attempts is likely to lead to at least some successful replications, but the pace and quality of these attempts will be crucial in determining the outcome.

5. Initial probability: 60
Given the considerations above, I would initially estimate a 60% chance that the LK-99 room temperature, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before August 15, 2023.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% might be considered relatively high, given that the factors pointing towards a "no" are significant. However, the excitement and interest in the discovery, combined with the low cost and availability of the materials, suggest that a high volume of replication attempts will occur. Considering the base rate of successful replications in the field, it's not excessively high, but it might be considered somewhat optimistic.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the trial of Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), including the sentencing, conclude before the end of 2023, given the following criteria for a "YES" answer: 
- Acquittal within 2023
- Conviction and sentencing within 2023
- Plea deal within 2023
The criteria for a "NO" answer include:
- Mistrial
- Postponement of the trial
- Dropping of charges
- SBF's death or incapacity
- Trial ongoing or awaiting sentencing at the end of 2023

2. Reasons why the answer might be NO (and their strength):
- Reason 1: The trial might be complex, involving multiple charges and extensive evidence, which could lead to a lengthy trial process. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 2: SBF's defense team might request a delay or postponement, which could push the trial beyond 2023. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 3: The prosecution might need more time to prepare or present evidence, potentially leading to a delay. (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 4: The court might need to consider additional factors, such as the impact of SBF's trial on other related cases, potentially delaying the conclusion. (Strength: 4/10)
- Reason 5: The US court system is often congested, and the availability of a judge and courtroom might be limited, leading to delays. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be YES (and their strength):
- Reason 1: The US justice system has a reputation for being efficient, with many trials concluding within a reasonable timeframe. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: SBF's high-profile case might receive priority treatment, with the court aiming to resolve the matter as quickly as possible. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 3: The prosecution might be eager to conclude the trial and sentencing to demonstrate the effectiveness of their case. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 4: The defense team might be motivated to reach a plea deal or conclude the trial quickly to minimize the negative impact on SBF. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons for a "NO" answer are mostly related to the complexities and potential delays within the court system, while the reasons for a "YES" answer focus on the efficiency of the US justice system and the motivations of the parties involved. However, the strength of the "NO" reasons seems slightly higher due to the inherent complexities of the court system.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the trial concluding before the end of 2023 to be around 40.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability might be considered not confident enough, given the high stakes and high-profile nature of the case. The US justice system's efficiency and the motivations of the parties involved might lead to a more optimistic outcome. However, the complexities and potential delays within the court system should not be underestimated.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the high stakes and the potential for delays, I would adjust the probability to a more conservative estimate. The final prediction is: *0.55*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Hamas lose control of the majority of the Gaza Strip before December 31, 2024? The question resolves Yes if, at any point between October 7, 2023, and December 31, 2023, the consensus of credible reports is that Hamas no longer has de facto control of the majority of the Gaza Strip. It resolves No in all other cases, including if the consensus of credible reports is that control of Gaza is disputed, or if there is no consensus of credible reports.

Reasons why the answer might be No (Strength: 8/10):
1. Hamas has maintained control over Gaza since 2007, despite various conflicts and military operations. Their ability to adapt and maintain control suggests they may continue to do so. (Strength: 7/10)
2. The Gaza Strip is a relatively small and isolated area, making it easier for Hamas to maintain control. (Strength: 5/10)
3. Hamas has a strong presence in Gaza and a significant number of supporters, which could help them maintain control. (Strength: 6/10)
4. The international community's focus on other conflicts and issues in the region might distract from efforts to undermine Hamas's control in Gaza. (Strength: 4/10)

Reasons why the answer might be Yes (Strength: 6/10):
1. The Israeli government has been conducting military operations in Gaza, which could potentially weaken Hamas's control. (Strength: 7/10)
2. Economic conditions in Gaza are dire, and a humanitarian crisis could lead to instability and potentially undermine Hamas's control. (Strength: 6/10)
3. The Palestinian Authority's efforts to exert control over Gaza could lead to a power struggle and potentially lead to Hamas losing control. (Strength: 5/10)
4. International pressure and diplomatic efforts could lead to a resolution that undermines Hamas's control. (Strength: 4/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both possibilities, it seems that Hamas's ability to maintain control is the most likely scenario. However, there are potential factors that could lead to a change in control, such as military operations, economic conditions, and international pressure.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation:
The calculated probability seems relatively low, but it's essential to consider the base rate of the event. Hamas has maintained control over Gaza for a long time, and significant changes are often preceded by a series of events. The probability might be too low, given the complexity of the situation and the various factors at play.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will credible sources report that a novel pathogen is responsible for the pneumonia cases occurring in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023? This question resolves as Yes if, before December 15, 2023, there is a credible announcement from a reputable scientific or health organization that the pneumonia cases in Beijing or Liaoning have been identified as being caused by a previously unknown pathogen. This does not necessarily imply that the pathogen has been fully characterized or that its transmission dynamics are well understood.

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Lack of reported outbreaks in Beijing or Liaoning**: If there have been no reported cases of pneumonia in Beijing or Liaoning, it's less likely that a novel pathogen would be identified. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Existing known pathogens**: The pneumonia cases might be caused by a known pathogen, such as influenza or SARS-CoV-2, which could reduce the likelihood of identifying a novel pathogen. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Diagnostic challenges**: Identifying a novel pathogen can be a complex and time-consuming process, which might delay the announcement of a new pathogen. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Lack of funding or resources**: Limited resources or funding might hinder the ability of researchers to identify a novel pathogen. (Strength: 4/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Recent history of emerging pathogens**: The COVID-19 pandemic has shown that novel pathogens can emerge and spread rapidly, increasing the likelihood of identifying a new pathogen. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Advancements in genomic sequencing**: The rapid development of genomic sequencing technologies has improved the ability to identify new pathogens quickly. (Strength: 9/10)
3. **Increased surveillance and monitoring**: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to increased surveillance and monitoring of respiratory illnesses, which might facilitate the identification of a novel pathogen. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Global collaboration and sharing of data**: International collaboration and data sharing have improved the ability to identify and respond to emerging pathogens. (Strength: 8/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the factors above, I think the likelihood of identifying a novel pathogen is relatively high, given the recent history of emerging pathogens and advancements in genomic sequencing. However, the lack of reported outbreaks and existing known pathogens are also significant factors to consider.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of confidence:
My initial probability might be too low, given the rapid advancements in genomic sequencing and global collaboration. However, the lack of reported outbreaks and existing known pathogens are significant concerns. Considering the base rate of emerging pathogens, I think my initial probability is relatively conservative.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the LK-99 room temperature, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before the end of September 2023, considering the pre-print available on arXiv (XXXX) and the companion paper describing the synthesis (XXXX)? Given the resolution criteria are not applicable/available for this question, I will rely on publicly available information and my understanding of the topic to make an informed prediction.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- **Reason 1: Replication requires rigorous testing and validation** (Strength: 4): Replicating a scientific discovery often involves multiple experiments and thorough validation to ensure the results are consistent and reliable. The initial pre-print may not be enough to guarantee replication.
- **Reason 2: Potential flaws in the initial experiment** (Strength: 3): The initial experiment might have contained flaws or errors that could be difficult to replicate, which could hinder the replication process.
- **Reason 3: Limited understanding of the synthesis process** (Strength: 2): The companion paper provides a description of the synthesis process, but it might not be enough to fully understand the intricacies of the process, making it challenging to replicate.
- **Reason 4: Time constraints** (Strength: 1): The question is asking for replication before the end of September 2023, which might be an ambitious timeline, given the complexity of the experiment and the need for thorough validation.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- **Reason 1: The pre-print provides a clear description of the experiment** (Strength: 4): The pre-print on arXiv provides a detailed description of the experiment, which could facilitate replication by other researchers.
- **Reason 2: The companion paper provides a detailed synthesis process** (Strength: 4): The companion paper describing the synthesis process could help other researchers understand and replicate the experiment more easily.
- **Reason 3: The scientific community's interest in superconductivity** (Strength: 3): The discovery of room temperature, ambient pressure superconductivity is a significant breakthrough, and the scientific community might be eager to replicate and build upon this discovery.
- **Reason 4: The potential for rapid progress in materials science** (Strength: 2): The field of materials science is rapidly advancing, and researchers might be able to build upon the initial discovery and replicate it quickly.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I weigh the strengths of each reason. The reasons for a "no" answer seem more significant, with a total strength of 10 (4+3+2+1), while the reasons for a "yes" answer have a total strength of 13 (4+4+3+2). However, the strengths of the reasons are not the only factors to consider. The fact that the scientific community is interested in superconductivity and the potential for rapid progress in materials science could lead to a more rapid replication process.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I estimate the initial probability of replication before the end of September 2023 to be 40%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 40% seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident. The base rate of replication in scientific research is relatively low, and the complexity of the experiment and the need for thorough validation could lead to a lower probability. Additionally, the time constraint of replicating the experiment before the end of September 2023 might be overly ambitious.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

What is the probability that the crew and passengers of the missing Titanic explorer submarine will be found safely by the end of the week, meaning that the submarine is located with some chance of rescue, and there is a possibility for the crew and passengers to be rescued before their air supply runs out, by Sunday UK time (the end of the week), given the current search efforts and the information available up to June 19, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- **Reason 1:** The search area is vast, and the submarine's last known location is unclear, which might make it challenging to locate the submarine in time (strength: 4).
- **Reason 2:** The submarine's communication equipment may have failed, making it difficult for the crew to send distress signals or their location (strength: 3).
- **Reason 3:** The submarine's life support systems may have malfunctioned or are running low on power, increasing the risk of a catastrophic outcome (strength: 4).
- **Reason 4:** Weather conditions in the North Atlantic can be severe, which might hinder search efforts or make it harder for a rescue team to reach the submarine (strength: 3).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- **Reason 1:** The search effort is ongoing, and multiple assets are involved, including naval vessels and aircraft, which increases the chances of locating the submarine (strength: 5).
- **Reason 2:** The crew and passengers of the submarine are likely well-trained and equipped to handle emergency situations, which might improve their chances of survival (strength: 4).
- **Reason 3:** The submarine's design and construction are likely to provide a safe environment for the crew and passengers, at least for a certain period (strength: 4).
- **Reason 4:** The search area is being monitored by satellite and sonar, which might help locate the submarine even if communication equipment has failed (strength: 4).

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" outcome, I weigh the strengths of each reason. The reasons for a "yes" outcome are stronger, with an average strength of 4.25, while the reasons for a "no" outcome have an average strength of 3.5. This suggests that the chances of the crew and passengers being found safely are higher.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of the crew and passengers being found safely by the end of the week to be around 70%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:

The initial probability of 70% seems reasonable, but it might be considered not confident enough, given the severity of the situation and the potential consequences of a "no" outcome. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of successful rescue operations in similar situations, which is generally high. This might slightly increase the confidence in the initial probability.

7. Final prediction:

*0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the ongoing Writers Guild of America (WGA) strike, which involves both the Writers Guild of America West (WGAW) and the Writers Guild of America East (WGAE), end by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, according to official information from the WGA (WGAW: XXXX; WGAE: XXXX) and a consensus of credible reporting?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- **Complex negotiations**: The WGA strike has been ongoing for a while, and negotiations might be complex, involving multiple parties and issues, which could lead to a prolonged strike. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Industry pushback**: The strike has already caused significant disruptions in the entertainment industry, and some parties might resist concessions or be unwilling to meet the WGA's demands, prolonging the strike. (Strength: 5/10)
- **WGA's demands**: The WGA's demands for better pay, residuals, and working conditions might be too ambitious, leading to an extended strike as the industry tries to find a balance between meeting the union's demands and maintaining profitability. (Strength: 7/10)
- **External factors**: External factors like the upcoming elections or other industry events might distract from the negotiations, leading to a prolonged strike. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- **WGA's bargaining power**: The WGA has been gaining momentum and support from the public, which could give them the leverage to negotiate a favorable deal and end the strike soon. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Industry's desire for resolution**: The entertainment industry is likely eager to return to normal operations, and a resolution to the strike would allow for a swift return to production and minimize losses. (Strength: 9/10)
- **Previous strike precedents**: Past WGA strikes have ended relatively quickly, suggesting that the industry and the union have a history of finding mutually beneficial solutions. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Pressure from studios and networks**: Major studios and networks might be willing to meet the WGA's demands to avoid further disruptions and maintain a smooth production schedule. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The strike has been ongoing for a while, and negotiations are complex, which might lead to a prolonged strike. However, the WGA's bargaining power, the industry's desire for resolution, and previous strike precedents suggest that a resolution is possible. External factors and the WGA's demands might also play a role.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I estimate the probability of the strike ending by September 30, 2023, to be around 45%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability might be too optimistic, considering the complexity of the negotiations and the WGA's demands. The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a strike ending within the given timeframe) is difficult to estimate, but it's likely lower than 50%. The initial probability should be adjusted to reflect this.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) grant a launch license to SpaceX for a second integrated flight test of the Starship-Superheavy vehicle from Boca Chica, Texas, before November 16th, 2023? This license would authorize a near-orbital flight, potentially modifying the existing license "VOL 23-129" that currently only permits the first flight test. The license modification or a new license document will be considered valid if it appears on the FAA's licenses page or is reported by reliable media sources before November 16th.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No (with strength ratings):**

1. **Regulatory Delays (Strength: 60%):** The FAA has a history of taking time to review and approve licenses for SpaceX's Starship-Superheavy program. Delays in the review process could prevent the license from being issued before November 16th.
2. **Additional Regulatory Requirements (Strength: 30%):** Although the market resolves only on an FAA license, SpaceX may still need to meet additional regulatory requirements before launching the second flight test. These requirements could cause a delay in the issuance of the license.
3. **Lack of Transparency (Strength: 10%):** The FAA's licensing process can be opaque, and it's possible that the agency may not publicly announce the issuance of the license before November 16th, even if it has been granted.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes (with strength ratings):**

1. **FAA's Previous Experience (Strength: 80%):** The FAA has already issued a license for the first Starship-Superheavy flight test, which suggests that they are familiar with the program and can process the license for the second flight in a timely manner.
2. **SpaceX's Experience and Planning (Strength: 70%):** SpaceX has a track record of successfully launching complex vehicles, and they have likely planned and prepared for the second flight test. This experience and planning could help ensure that the license is issued without significant delays.
3. **FAA's Goal to Support Commercial Spaceflight (Strength: 50%):** The FAA has stated its commitment to supporting the growth of commercial spaceflight, which could motivate them to issue the license in a timely manner.

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Considering the strengths of the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I would estimate that the FAA is likely to grant the license before November 16th. The FAA's previous experience with the program, SpaceX's experience and planning, and the agency's goal to support commercial spaceflight all suggest a high likelihood of a timely license issuance. However, the potential for regulatory delays and additional requirements could still cause a delay.

**Initial Probability:** 85

**Evaluation of Confidence:**

Upon reviewing my considerations, I realize that my initial probability of 85 may be excessively confident. While the reasons for a "yes" answer are strong, the reasons for a "no" answer are not negligible. I should consider a more conservative estimate to account for the potential risks and uncertainties.

**Final Prediction:** *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will 'Oppenheimer' (2023) gross more than $1 billion worldwide before January 1, 2024, according to the Box Office Mojo reported numbers? The question will resolve as 'yes' if 'Oppenheimer' reaches a worldwide box office total of over $1 billion on or before January 1, 2024, and 'no' if it does not reach this milestone by then. The provided information includes a link to the Box Office Mojo page for the film 'Oppenheimer' (2023), which tracks its box office performance.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The film's genre, a biographical drama, might not appeal to a broad audience, potentially limiting its box office potential (Strength: 4).
- The competition from other summer blockbusters and big-budget films might have affected its initial box office performance (Strength: 3).
- The film's runtime of 3 hours and 5 minutes might deter some viewers who prefer shorter films (Strength: 2).
- The film's complex subject matter and historical context might make it less accessible to a general audience (Strength: 2).
- The film's release date, which might be considered late in the summer season, could impact its box office performance (Strength: 1).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The film has received widespread critical acclaim, which can positively impact box office performance (Strength: 5).
- Cillian Murphy's performance and the film's direction by Christopher Nolan are likely to attract a dedicated audience (Strength: 4).
- The film's unique subject matter and historical context might appeal to a niche audience interested in science and history (Strength: 3).
- The film's marketing campaign and promotion might have generated significant buzz and interest in the film (Strength: 3).
- The film's runtime, while potentially a drawback for some, might be seen as a benefit by some viewers who appreciate the depth and complexity of the subject matter (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the film's critical acclaim, unique subject matter, and dedicated audience might contribute to its box office success. However, the competition from other films, runtime, and potential accessibility issues might hinder its performance. The strength of the reasons for a 'yes' outcome seems to outweigh those for a 'no' outcome, but the uncertainty surrounding the film's box office potential remains.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of 'Oppenheimer' (2023) grossing over $1 billion worldwide before January 1, 2024, to be 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, considering the mixed factors affecting the film's box office performance. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the film's critical acclaim and dedicated audience. On the other hand, it also does not excessively overestimate the film's box office potential. The base rate of films grossing over $1 billion worldwide is relatively low, which might suggest that the initial probability should be adjusted downward.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the initial probability and the evaluation, I would adjust the probability to 55, taking into account the uncertainty surrounding the film's box office performance and the relatively low base rate of films grossing over $1 billion worldwide.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the discovery of a room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor, as claimed in the paper "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" (arXiv:2307.12008), be replicated by October 1st, 2023? Replication will be confirmed if a peer-reviewed publication is published, or if there is a general expert consensus that the result is real, marked by a flood of independent research results on the arXiv or other scientific platforms, discussed and analyzed on social media without significant backlash or criticism from the scientific community.

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Difficulty in replicating superconducting materials**: The discovery of superconducting materials is a challenging task, requiring precise control over the material's composition and structure. The likelihood of successfully replicating the exact conditions and material properties described in the paper might be low. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Limited understanding of the underlying mechanisms**: The paper's authors claim to have discovered a new class of superconducting materials, but the underlying mechanisms behind this phenomenon are not well understood. It may take significant additional research to fully comprehend the properties of these materials, making replication difficult. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **High bar for publication in top-tier journals**: The scientific community is highly skeptical of claims of room-temperature superconductors, and top-tier journals may require rigorous testing and verification before accepting a paper for publication. This could slow down the replication process. (Strength: 8/10)
4. **Potential for experimental error or contamination**: The paper's results might be the result of experimental error or contamination, which could be difficult to detect without further investigation. (Strength: 5/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **The paper's authors have a track record of innovative research**: The authors of the paper have a history of conducting innovative research and making significant contributions to the field of superconductivity. This suggests that they may have a deep understanding of the underlying mechanisms and a high degree of expertise in the field. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **The paper's results are consistent with theoretical predictions**: The paper's results are consistent with theoretical predictions and simulations, which could indicate that the discovery is genuine. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **The scientific community is eager for breakthroughs in superconductivity**: The discovery of room-temperature superconductors has the potential to revolutionize various fields, including energy storage and transmission. The scientific community may be motivated to verify the results and build upon them. (Strength: 9/10)
4. **The paper's claims are not entirely unprecedented**: While the discovery of room-temperature superconductors at ambient pressure is a remarkable claim, there have been previous reports of similar phenomena, although they were later disputed or retracted. However, the current paper's claims may be more robust and well-supported. (Strength: 6/10)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for and against, I weigh the strengths of each argument. The reasons against replication (difficulty in replicating superconducting materials, limited understanding of the underlying mechanisms, high bar for publication, and potential for experimental error) are significant, but the reasons for replication (the authors' track record, consistency with theoretical predictions, the scientific community's eagerness for breakthroughs, and the paper's claims not being entirely unprecedented) are also substantial. I assign a moderate confidence level to the possibility of replication.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of the initial probability:

The initial probability of 40% seems reasonable, given the mixed bag of reasons for and against replication. However, I consider the base rate of breakthroughs in superconductivity, which is relatively low. The scientific community has been searching for room-temperature superconductors for decades, and the discovery of such a phenomenon is a rare event. This might make the initial probability too low.

Considering the base rate and the fact that the paper's authors have a track record of innovative research, I adjust the probability upward.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Lionel Messi join Inter Miami in 2023, given that the question is currently in 2023, with a deadline of July 15th, 2023, to confirm the move? What are the factors that might influence his decision to join Inter Miami, and what are the potential reasons why he might not join the team?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Strength: 6/10
   Messi has expressed his loyalty to Barcelona and the Argentine national team, indicating a strong emotional attachment to his current clubs. This attachment might make it difficult for him to leave.
- Strength: 5/10
   Messi's current contract with Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) might have a significant buyout clause or other obligations that could make it difficult for him to join Inter Miami without severe financial implications.
- Strength: 4/10
   Messi has been linked to other clubs in the past, but ultimately chose to join PSG. This might indicate that he prioritizes other factors, such as the league or personal relationships, over joining a specific team like Inter Miami.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Strength: 8/10
   Inter Miami has been actively pursuing Messi, and the team's owner, David Beckham, has been involved in the negotiations. This indicates a strong interest from the club and a willingness to make the necessary moves to secure his signature.
- Strength: 7/10
   Messi has been open to the idea of playing in the United States in the past, and the MLS has been actively promoting itself as a viable destination for top players. This might make Inter Miami an attractive option for Messi.
- Strength: 6/10
   Messi's age and the fact that he has already achieved most of his goals in Europe might lead him to seek new challenges and a change of scenery, which Inter Miami could provide.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that the likelihood of Messi joining Inter Miami is influenced by both positive and negative factors. While the club's interest and Messi's openness to the idea are significant, his emotional attachment to his current clubs and potential contractual obligations might make it difficult for him to make the move.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Messi joining Inter Miami to be 40.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems reasonable given the mixed factors at play. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of high-profile players joining MLS teams, which is relatively low. This might indicate that the probability should be lower. On the other hand, the fact that Inter Miami is a well-funded club with a strong owner and a desire to attract top talent might make the probability slightly higher.

7. Final prediction:
*0.32*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.32
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will there be a high-credibility spurious replication of the LK-99 room temperature superconductors before 2024, similar to the spurious replications observed during the cold fusion craze, where a substantial fraction of the scientific community accepts the replication, but it is later shown to be mistaken or retracted? This replication must be published or pre-printed in 2023, and the debunking may occur later, with a possible resolution until 2025 if uncertain. The replication should not be deemed crankish, and a degree of subjectivity in evaluating this criterion is acknowledged.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 7/10**: The scientific community has become more cautious and rigorous in evaluating claims of superconductivity, especially after the cold fusion debacle. This increased scrutiny may make it more difficult for a spurious replication to gain traction.
- **Strength: 6/10**: The LK-99 room temperature superconductors are a relatively new and specific area of research, which might limit the number of replication attempts and the potential for a high-credibility spurious replication.
- **Strength: 5/10**: The scientific community has developed more effective methods for detecting and debunking false claims, which might reduce the likelihood of a spurious replication gaining widespread acceptance.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 8/10**: The history of science has shown that it is possible for a spurious replication to gain traction, even with the best of intentions and rigorous methods. The cold fusion example is a notable case.
- **Strength: 6/10**: The pressure to publish and the desire for breakthroughs in the field of superconductivity might lead some researchers to be more willing to accept a replication, even if it is flawed.
- **Strength: 5/10**: The rapid advancement of technology and experimental methods might make it easier for researchers to overlook or misinterpret data, leading to a spurious replication.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the points above, the likelihood of a high-credibility spurious replication of LK-99 room temperature superconductors before 2024 seems to be relatively low, but not impossible. The increased scrutiny and rigor in the scientific community, combined with the specific nature of the research area and the effectiveness of debunking methods, make it more challenging for a spurious replication to gain traction. However, the history of science and the pressure to publish and make breakthroughs suggest that it is not entirely impossible.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I would estimate the initial probability of a high-credibility spurious replication of LK-99 room temperature superconductors before 2024 to be around 20.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 20 might be considered not confident enough, given the relatively low base rate of spurious replications in the scientific community. However, the specific nature of the research area and the increased scrutiny make it a more challenging prediction. Considering the base rate, it is essential to be cautious and not overestimate the likelihood of a spurious replication.

7. Final prediction:
*0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will #1 Michigan beat #2 Washington in the 2024 College Football Playoff (CFP) National Championship game, which is scheduled to take place on January 8th, 2024, at 7:30 PM ET in Houston, Texas? This question assumes that the rankings of #1 Michigan and #2 Washington remain the same at the time of the championship game.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strong to weak):
- **Strong (8/10):** Michigan's offense, which heavily relies on its running game and quarterback J.J. McCarthy's ability to extend plays, might struggle against Washington's stout defense, which has shown the ability to limit opponents' scoring opportunities.
- **Medium (6/10):** Washington's offense, led by quarterback Michael Penix Jr., has the potential to put up a lot of points, but their ability to maintain a high-scoring pace throughout the game might be inconsistent. If they fail to score, Michigan's defense might capitalize on their mistakes.
- **Weak (4/10):** Washington's team might be fatigued from their previous games, potentially affecting their performance in the championship game.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strong to weak):
- **Strong (9/10):** Michigan's defense, led by its stout secondary and pass rush, has been one of the best in the country, and they might be able to contain Washington's high-powered offense.
- **Medium (7/10):** Michigan's running game, led by Blake Corum, has been a key factor in their success, and if they can establish a strong ground game, it could limit Washington's chances of scoring.
- **Weak (3/10):** Michigan's coaching staff, led by Jim Harbaugh, has experience in big games and might be able to make the necessary adjustments to outmaneuver Washington's coaching staff.

4. Aggregated considerations:
The factors that lean towards a "no" answer are the potential struggles of Michigan's offense against Washington's defense and the possibility of Washington's fatigue. However, the factors that lean towards a "yes" answer are Michigan's strong defense and their ability to control the ground game.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I would give Michigan a 62% chance of beating Washington in the CFP National Championship game.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 62% seems relatively confident, but it's not excessively so. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is the general probability of an underdog (Washington) beating a favorite (Michigan) in a high-stakes game. This base rate is typically low, which might suggest that my initial probability is not confident enough.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the closing price of Bitcoin on September 1, 2023, be higher than $29,695, considering the price on August 1, 2023, was $29,695? This question aims to predict the future direction of Bitcoin's price movement over a one-month period. The question's resolution criteria are not explicitly stated, which may impact the accuracy of the prediction.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-10 for strength, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- **Reason 1: Historical Volatility** (6/10): Bitcoin's price has historically been highly volatile, with significant fluctuations in short periods. This volatility might lead to a decline in price, making it challenging to predict a steady increase.
- **Reason 2: Economic Uncertainty** (8/10): Global economic conditions, such as inflation, interest rates, and government policies, can significantly impact the cryptocurrency market. If these factors deteriorate, they might lead to a decrease in Bitcoin's price.
- **Reason 3: Regulatory Environment** (4/10): Governments and regulatory bodies might introduce policies that negatively affect the cryptocurrency market, potentially leading to a decline in Bitcoin's price.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-10 for strength, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- **Reason 1: Increased Adoption** (7/10): Growing adoption of cryptocurrencies by institutions and individuals might lead to increased demand, driving the price up.
- **Reason 2: Limited Supply** (9/10): The total supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million, which can lead to scarcity and, consequently, higher prices as demand increases.
- **Reason 3: Technological Advancements** (5/10): Improvements in scalability, security, and usability of the Bitcoin network might attract more users and investors, contributing to a price increase.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the factors pointing towards a price decrease (Reasons 1-3) seem to have a slightly higher combined strength (18/20) than those pointing towards a price increase (Reasons 1-3, 12/20). However, it is essential to note that these are just a few of the many factors influencing the cryptocurrency market.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of Bitcoin closing above $29,695 on September 1, 2023, to be around 40.

6. Evaluation of confidence:
The initial probability of 40% might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the potential impact of various market and economic factors. A more conservative approach might be warranted.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Chinese President Xi Jinping visit the United States by the end of 2023, following his meeting with Bill Gates in Beijing, in which he expressed a more conciliatory tone towards the US and discussed potential collaborations in areas such as artificial intelligence? This visit would likely involve a trip to Microsoft's headquarters in Redmond, Washington, as an invitation from Bill Gates is implied. All US visits by Xi Jinping will be counted towards the resolution of this question.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The US-China relations have been strained in recent years, and a visit from Xi Jinping might be seen as a sign of weakness or a concession by the Chinese government. (Strength: 3)
- Xi Jinping's previous visits to the US have been met with significant controversy and protests, which might make him hesitant to visit again. (Strength: 2)
- The Chinese government might be cautious about allowing Xi Jinping to visit the US due to concerns about his safety and potential protests. (Strength: 2)
- Xi Jinping's meeting with Bill Gates might have been a one-time gesture of goodwill, and he might not follow up with a visit to the US. (Strength: 4)
- The Chinese government might have other priorities or scheduling conflicts that would prevent Xi Jinping from visiting the US by the end of 2023. (Strength: 1)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Xi Jinping's meeting with Bill Gates suggests a willingness to engage with the US and explore areas of cooperation. (Strength: 4)
- The Chinese government might see a visit from Xi Jinping as an opportunity to improve relations with the US and promote Chinese interests. (Strength: 3)
- The US and China have a significant economic relationship, and a visit from Xi Jinping could help to strengthen ties and promote trade. (Strength: 3)
- Xi Jinping's visit to the US would be a significant event that could help to improve public perception of the US-China relationship. (Strength: 2)
- Bill Gates' invitation to Xi Jinping implies that a visit to Microsoft's headquarters in Redmond is a possibility. (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against a visit from Xi Jinping, I would rate the strength of the arguments as follows:
- Reasons for a visit: 3.4 (average of 4 + 3 + 3 + 2 + 5)
- Reasons against a visit: 2.2 (average of 3 + 2 + 2 + 4 + 1)
The overall balance of evidence suggests that a visit from Xi Jinping is more likely than not.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of a visit from Xi Jinping by the end of 2023 at 62%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 62% seems reasonable, but it might be on the lower side given the strength of the reasons for a visit. I did not consider the base rate of US-China visits, which might be relatively low. However, I did consider the strained relations between the two countries, which could make a visit less likely.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the USD/RUB exchange rate exceed 100 for a continuous period of 30 days in 2023, as displayed on the Google Finance monthly chart, from October 2023 to December 2023? This question is contingent on the exchange rate consistently being above 100 for 30 consecutive days within this timeframe, based on the available data points from the Google Finance chart. The exchange rate has been steadily rising throughout 2023, with recent fluctuations in October. The question aims to determine the likelihood of this trend continuing, potentially reaching the 100 threshold and sustaining it for an extended period.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- **Reason 1: Historical Volatility**: The USD/RUB exchange rate has been highly volatile in the past, particularly in response to international sanctions and monetary policy decisions. This volatility might cause the rate to drop below 100, disrupting the 30-day streak. (Strength: 4)
- **Reason 2: Economic Sanctions**: Ongoing international sanctions against Russia might continue to impact the country's economy, potentially leading to a decrease in the value of the RUB and causing the exchange rate to drop below 100. (Strength: 4)
- **Reason 3: Central Bank Intervention**: The Russian Central Bank might intervene in the foreign exchange market to control the exchange rate, potentially lowering it below 100 to stabilize the economy. (Strength: 3)
- **Reason 4: Global Economic Factors**: Global economic trends, such as a potential recession or a strengthening US dollar, might negatively impact the RUB and cause the exchange rate to drop below 100. (Strength: 3)
- **Reason 5: Data Limitations**: The Google Finance chart might not accurately reflect the current market conditions or might have limitations in displaying the data, which could affect the assessment of the 30-day streak. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- **Reason 1: Rising Trend**: The USD/RUB exchange rate has been steadily increasing throughout 2023, indicating a potential upward trend that could continue and reach the 100 threshold. (Strength: 4)
- **Reason 2: Economic Fundamentals**: The Russian economy has been adapting to international sanctions, and the RUB has shown resilience. This could indicate a strong underlying economic foundation that might support a sustained exchange rate above 100. (Strength: 3)
- **Reason 3: Central Bank Policy**: The Russian Central Bank might continue to implement policies that support a stronger RUB, potentially leading to a sustained exchange rate above 100. (Strength: 3)
- **Reason 4: Limited Global Economic Impact**: If global economic trends do not significantly impact the RUB, the exchange rate might continue to rise and remain above 100. (Strength: 2)
- **Reason 5: Market Expectations**: Market participants might be expecting the exchange rate to rise, which could lead to self-fulfilling expectations and a sustained exchange rate above 100. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that the factors pointing towards a "no" answer are stronger. The historical volatility, economic sanctions, and potential central bank intervention could all contribute to a drop in the exchange rate below 100. However, the rising trend, economic fundamentals, and central bank policy might support a sustained exchange rate above 100. Given the current data and the steadily increasing trend, it seems that the "yes" factors have a slight edge, but the "no" factors are still significant.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate an initial probability of 45% that the USD/RUB exchange rate will exceed 100 for a continuous period of 30 days in 2023.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 45% might be considered not confident enough, given the potential strength of the "yes" factors. However, it's also essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is relatively low. The USD/RUB exchange rate has not consistently been above 100 for an extended period in the past, making this event less likely. Additionally, the base rate of the event (the probability of the exchange rate exceeding 100 for 30 consecutive days) is not explicitly known, but it's likely to be low.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Nvidia's share price break $500 by the end of 2023, given the current market conditions and trends, and considering various factors that could influence the stock's performance? The answer to this question will be determined by the market's performance up to August 24, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The current economic uncertainty and potential recession might negatively impact Nvidia's stock price. (Strength: 4)
- The company's reliance on the gaming market, which might not be as strong as in the past due to the rise of cloud gaming and other competing technologies. (Strength: 3)
- Nvidia's high valuation and potential for a correction in the market. (Strength: 4)
- Competition from other companies in the field, such as AMD and Intel, might erode Nvidia's market share and impact its stock price. (Strength: 3)
- Regulatory challenges and potential supply chain disruptions could negatively impact Nvidia's business. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Nvidia's strong position in the artificial intelligence (AI) and data center markets, which are growing rapidly. (Strength: 5)
- The company's recent acquisitions and investments in emerging technologies, such as graphics processing units (GPUs) and autonomous vehicles. (Strength: 4)
- Nvidia's strong brand and reputation in the industry, which could lead to continued demand for its products. (Strength: 3)
- The potential for Nvidia to benefit from the growth of the metaverse and other emerging technologies. (Strength: 3)
- The company's history of innovation and ability to adapt to changing market trends. (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that Nvidia's strong position in the AI and data center markets, as well as its recent acquisitions and investments, are significant factors that could contribute to its stock price breaking $500. However, the current economic uncertainty, competition from other companies, and potential regulatory challenges could also impact its performance. A balanced view suggests that Nvidia's stock price has a good chance of breaking $500, but it's not a certainty.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Nvidia's share price breaking $500 by the end of 2023 to be around 65%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 65% seems reasonable, but it might be too confident given the uncertainty of the market and the various factors that could impact Nvidia's stock price. It's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is the general likelihood of a stock price breaking a specific threshold. In this case, the base rate is not explicitly known, but it's generally rare for a stock to break a specific price threshold. Therefore, the initial probability might be adjusted downward to account for this.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Logan Paul defeat Dillon Danis in their scheduled boxing match at Manchester Arena on October 14, 2023? The market will resolve to YES if Logan Paul wins. If Dillon Danis wins or the fight is a draw, the market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or declared a No Contest on the night, the market will resolve to N/A.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Dillon Danis is a skilled Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner with a background in mixed martial arts, which could give him an advantage in a boxing match. (Strength: 4)
- Logan Paul's boxing skills are largely untested against a professional boxer, whereas Danis has faced opponents with more extensive boxing experience. (Strength: 4)
- Danis has a strong wrestling background, which could allow him to control the pace of the fight and potentially wear down Paul. (Strength: 3)
- Paul's performance in his previous boxing matches has been inconsistent, raising concerns about his ability to perform at a high level in a competitive fight. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Logan Paul has a significant social media following and a strong promotional machine behind him, which could give him an edge in terms of training and preparation. (Strength: 3)
- Paul has shown improvements in his boxing skills in his previous fights, particularly against KSI, and may have learned from those experiences. (Strength: 4)
- Danis is relatively new to professional boxing and may struggle to adapt to the demands of a high-level boxing match. (Strength: 4)
- Paul's size and reach could be an advantage in the ring, allowing him to keep Danis at a distance and land powerful shots. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the main factors working in favor of a Logan Paul win are his potential to capitalize on his size and reach, as well as his improved boxing skills. However, Dillon Danis's background in mixed martial arts and wrestling could give him an edge in terms of grappling and controlling the pace of the fight. The strength of these factors is relatively evenly matched, making it a closely contested matchup.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of Logan Paul beating Dillon Danis at around 55%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon further consideration, I realize that my initial probability may be too high. The base rate of upsets in boxing matches, particularly those between a social media influencer and a professional mixed martial artist, is relatively high. Additionally, Danis's skills in grappling and wrestling could be a significant factor in the fight. Therefore, I should adjust my probability downwards to reflect these considerations.

7. Final prediction:
*0.40*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the Bank of England increase the UK's interest rate at their 14th December meeting, which is scheduled to occur after the publication of key economic indicators, including the UK's CPI inflation figure on 15th November, the UK's monthly GDP figure on 10th November, and possibly other relevant data? The market will resolve YES if the Bank of England raises the rate by any amount from the current level. The market will resolve NO if they maintain the rate or lower it.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):

- The Bank of England has been cautious in the past when considering interest rate hikes, especially in the face of economic uncertainty. (Strength: 6/10)
- The UK's economic growth has been slow, and the Bank of England might be hesitant to raise rates too quickly, fearing it could exacerbate the economic downturn. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Bank of England has been monitoring the UK's inflation rate closely, and if it falls below 7% or 6%, they might decide to keep the interest rate steady or even lower it. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Bank of England might prioritize supporting economic growth over fighting inflation, especially if the UK's GDP growth is positive. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):

- The UK's inflation rate has been high, and the Bank of England has a mandate to control inflation, which might lead them to raise interest rates. (Strength: 9/10)
- The Bank of England has been gradually increasing interest rates over the past year, and a further hike is consistent with this trend. (Strength: 8/10)
- The UK's economic indicators, such as the GDP growth and inflation rate, might suggest that the economy is strong enough to withstand a rate hike. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Bank of England might want to act pre-emptively to prevent inflation from rising further. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:

The Bank of England's primary goal is to control inflation, and the current inflation rate is high. However, the Bank of England is also cautious and might prioritize economic growth. The positive GDP growth and potential for inflation to fall below 7% or 6% might influence their decision. The gradual increase in interest rates over the past year also suggests that a further hike is possible.

5. Initial probability:

Given the considerations above, I would initially estimate the probability of the Bank of England raising the interest rate at 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

My initial probability seems somewhat cautious, but it's based on the available information and the potential for the Bank of England to prioritize economic growth over inflation control. However, the high inflation rate and the Bank of England's mandate to control it might lead to a more significant probability of a rate hike.

7. Final prediction:

*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Tesla deliver its first Cybertruck in the third quarter of 2023, meeting the production expectations it has set for this timeline? Given the background that there is a related question about Tesla producing more than 1500 Cybertrucks, what are the chances that Tesla will meet its Q3 2023 production target for the Cybertruck?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reason 1: Supply chain disruptions and production issues: Tesla has faced production challenges in the past, and supply chain disruptions could impact the delivery of the Cybertruck. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: Competition from other electric pickup trucks: The electric pickup truck market is becoming increasingly competitive, and other manufacturers might offer similar products that could draw attention away from the Cybertruck. (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 3: Tesla's production ramp-up challenges: Tesla has faced difficulties in scaling up production for new models, which might impact the Cybertruck's Q3 delivery target. (Strength: 7/10)
- Reason 4: Regulatory and certification issues: The Cybertruck might face regulatory hurdles or certification issues that could delay its production and delivery. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Reason 1: Tesla's history of meeting production targets: Tesla has a track record of meeting its production targets, and it has been working towards the Q3 delivery timeline for the Cybertruck. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: Tesla's experience with electric vehicles: Tesla has extensive experience with electric vehicle production, which could help it meet the Cybertruck's production target. (Strength: 9/10)
- Reason 3: Tesla's focus on the Cybertruck: Tesla has been actively working on the Cybertruck, and it has a strong focus on delivering the vehicle to customers. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 4: Tesla's ability to adapt to production challenges: Tesla has shown its ability to adapt to production challenges and overcome them. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the strength of the reasons for a "yes" outcome outweighs the strength of the reasons for a "no" outcome. The reasons for a "yes" outcome are more compelling, especially given Tesla's experience with electric vehicle production and its focus on the Cybertruck. However, the potential production challenges and supply chain disruptions are significant concerns that could impact the delivery timeline.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of Tesla delivering its first Cybertruck in Q3 2023 as 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems relatively moderate, considering the reasons for a "yes" outcome are stronger. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of Tesla meeting its production targets, which is generally high. This could suggest that the initial probability might be on the lower end.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Mega Millions jackpot of $1.25 billion be won on the next drawing, which is scheduled for Friday, August 4, 2023, given that the question is being asked before the question's close date of August 6, 2023, and the current date is August 2, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

- The Mega Millions drawing is a random event, and the outcome is not influenced by external factors. (Strength: 8/10)
- The probability of winning the jackpot remains the same for each drawing, and it's a relatively low chance of winning. (Strength: 9/10)
- The drawing is independent of the previous drawings, and past results do not affect the outcome. (Strength: 8.5/10)
- The large number of possible combinations and the relatively small number of tickets sold make it difficult to predict a win. (Strength: 8/10)
- The drawing is a complex event with many variables, making it challenging to forecast the outcome accurately. (Strength: 8.5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

- There is no information provided that would indicate the drawing is rigged or unfair. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Mega Millions drawing is a well-established and widely recognized lottery with a large player base. (Strength: 5/10)
- The jackpot is extremely large, which may attract more players, potentially increasing the chances of a win. (Strength: 6/10)
- The drawing is a random event, and it's possible for a player to win the jackpot. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that the reasons for the answer being "no" are stronger than the reasons for the answer being "yes." The drawing is a random event, and the probability of winning the jackpot remains the same for each drawing. The large number of possible combinations and the relatively small number of tickets sold make it difficult to predict a win.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be 20.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability of 20 might be too low, considering the large jackpot and the potential increase in player participation. However, the reasons for the answer being "no" are still stronger, and the drawing is a random event. The base rate of the event (winning the jackpot) is extremely low, and it's essential to consider this when evaluating the probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will there be a major school shooting in the United States with four or more fatal victims before the end of 2023? This will be resolved to YES if a shooting in a school in the US occurs with four or more people murdered with a gun before December 31, 2023. The resolution of this question will be based on the definition of a "mass shooting" used by the FBI, which is any incident in which at least four people are murdered with a gun. The question will resolve to NO if no such shooting occurs in a school in the US with four or more fatal victims before the end of 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

*   Decrease in school shootings: There has been a decrease in mass shootings in schools in the US in recent years, which could indicate a trend towards fewer such incidents. (Strength: 3)
*   Increased focus on school safety: Many schools in the US have implemented stricter safety measures, such as metal detectors, increased security personnel, and emergency response plans, which could reduce the likelihood of a major school shooting. (Strength: 4)
*   Improved mental health resources: There has been an increased focus on providing mental health resources to students and staff in schools, which could help prevent individuals from becoming violent. (Strength: 2)
*   Increased awareness and prevention efforts: The US has seen increased awareness and efforts to prevent school shootings through initiatives such as the Gun-Free Schools Act and the Safe Schools Improvement Act. (Strength: 3)
*   General trend of decreasing crime rates: Crime rates in the US have been decreasing in recent years, which could indicate a broader trend of decreasing violence. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

*   Continued availability of firearms: The US has a high rate of gun ownership, which makes it easier for individuals to access firearms and potentially carry out a school shooting. (Strength: 5)
*   Mental health concerns: Mental health issues, such as depression and anxiety, are prevalent among students and can contribute to violent behavior. (Strength: 4)
*   Social media influence: Social media platforms can facilitate the spread of extremist ideologies and provide a platform for individuals to plan and coordinate violent acts. (Strength: 3)
*   History of school shootings: The US has a history of school shootings, which suggests that the risk of such incidents is ongoing. (Strength: 4)
*   Limited effectiveness of safety measures: While schools have implemented various safety measures, these may not be foolproof, and individuals determined to carry out a shooting may find ways to circumvent them. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that there are both factors that suggest the answer might be yes and factors that suggest the answer might be no. However, the factors suggesting a higher likelihood of a school shooting (availability of firearms, mental health concerns, social media influence, and history of school shootings) seem to outweigh the factors suggesting a lower likelihood (decrease in school shootings, increased focus on school safety, improved mental health resources, and general trend of decreasing crime rates).

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of a major school shooting in the US with four or more fatal victims before the end of 2023 to be around 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable given the factors considered, but it may be too low considering the history of school shootings in the US. The base rate of school shootings is relatively low, but the potential consequences are severe, making it a high-stakes event. This might warrant a higher initial probability.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the evaluation above, I would revise the initial probability upwards to account for the high-stakes nature of the event and the potential for severe consequences. A final prediction of *0.65* seems reasonable, acknowledging the uncertainty and potential for both positive and negative factors to influence the outcome.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and expanded question:**

Will the Bank of England increase the UK's base interest rate from its current level of 5.25% at their monetary policy meeting scheduled for 2nd November, which is the next opportunity for the Bank of England to adjust interest rates after the given market data points (UK's CPI inflation figure published on 15th November and the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 10th November)?

The market will resolve YES if they raise the rate by any amount from the current level of 5.25%. The market will resolve NO if they maintain the rate or lower it.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.5
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Claudine Gay remain as the president of Harvard University until the end of 2024, given that her tenure as the university's president began in 2023 and the question deadline is January 2, 2024? Considering the information provided, what are the factors that might influence her decision to stay or leave the position by the end of 2024?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- Claudine Gay might decide to step down due to personal reasons, such as health concerns or family obligations, which could be a strong factor (Strength: 6/10).
- Harvard University might be facing significant challenges or scandals that could lead to her resignation or removal (Strength: 4/10).
- Claudine Gay might have a planned retirement or career transition in mind, which could be a strong reason for her departure (Strength: 7/10).
- She might be involved in a high-profile controversy or scandal that could lead to her resignation (Strength: 3/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- Claudine Gay has not publicly announced any plans to leave the position, which suggests that she intends to remain as president (Strength: 8/10).
- Harvard University has a strong tradition of long-term leadership, and presidents often serve for multiple terms (Strength: 9/10).
- There is no publicly available information suggesting that Claudine Gay is planning to leave the position or has any immediate plans to do so (Strength: 9/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons why the answer might be no are relatively weak, with the strongest reason being Claudine Gay's potential retirement or career transition (Strength: 7/10). On the other hand, the reasons why the answer might be yes are much stronger, with the strongest reasons being Harvard's tradition of long-term leadership and the lack of public information suggesting her departure (Strength: 9/10). Considering these factors, it seems more likely that Claudine Gay will remain as the president of Harvard University until the end of 2024.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Claudine Gay remaining as the president of Harvard University until the end of 2024 to be around 85%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively high, considering that there is no concrete evidence to suggest that Claudine Gay will leave the position. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of presidential turnover in universities and the potential for unexpected events that could lead to her departure. This might suggest that the initial probability is slightly too high.

7. Final prediction:
*0.8*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.8
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will the closing price of Bitcoin on June 30th, 2023, at 11:59 PM EST, be above $27,500, as per the median of Coinmarketcap, Coingecko, and the BTC/BUSD spot market on Binance? Given the current date of June 1st, 2023, and considering the resolution criteria that the answer will be determined based on the median price from these three sources, I will assess the likelihood of Bitcoin's price surpassing $27,500 on the specified date.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No (and their strength):**

1. **Historical Volatility**: Bitcoin's price has been known to fluctuate significantly, and past trends do not guarantee future performance. The price might drop due to various market factors, such as economic downturns, regulatory changes, or security concerns. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Market Sentiment**: Market sentiment can shift rapidly, and a decrease in investor confidence could lead to a price drop. If investors become risk-averse or lose faith in Bitcoin, the price might fall below $27,500. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Regulatory Uncertainty**: Governments and regulatory bodies might introduce policies that negatively impact the cryptocurrency market, causing a price decrease. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Global Economic Factors**: Economic downturns, inflation, or other global events could affect the price of Bitcoin. (Strength: 6/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes (and their strength):**

1. **Growing Adoption**: As more institutions and individuals invest in Bitcoin, its adoption and price might increase. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Technological Advancements**: Improvements in scalability, security, and usability could attract more users and investors, driving up the price. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Limited Supply**: The total supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million, which could lead to increased demand and, consequently, a higher price. (Strength: 8/10)
4. **Investor Optimism**: If investors remain optimistic about Bitcoin's potential, they might continue to invest, driving up the price. (Strength: 6/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Considering the reasons above, I believe the likelihood of Bitcoin's price being above $27,500 on June 30th, 2023, is influenced by a mix of factors. The strength of the reasons for a "yes" answer seems to outweigh those for a "no" answer, but the cryptocurrency market is inherently unpredictable.

**Initial Probability:** 55

**Evaluation of Initial Probability:**

Upon reviewing my initial probability, I realize it might be too low. The reasons for a "yes" answer seem more significant, and the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of Bitcoin's price being above $27,500 on a given day) is likely low, but not zero. However, I did not consider the potential for a significant market correction or a sudden shift in investor sentiment, which could affect the outcome.

**Final Prediction:** *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will Ethereum's price be above $1850 on June 30th, 2023, at 11:59 PM EST, based on the median of CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, and the ETH/BUSD spot market, considering the current date is June 1st, 2023, and the question is to be resolved on July 1st, 2023? The resolution criteria are not applicable or available for this question.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **Ethereum's Historical Price Volatility**: Ethereum's price has historically been subject to significant fluctuations, which could lead to a decline in price by June 30th. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Regulatory Uncertainty**: Regulatory changes or announcements affecting the cryptocurrency market could negatively impact Ethereum's price. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Global Economic Factors**: Economic downturns, inflation, or other global economic factors could lead to a decrease in demand for Ethereum, causing its price to drop. (Strength: 4/10)
4. **Market Sentiment**: A shift in market sentiment towards risk aversion could lead to a decline in Ethereum's price. (Strength: 3/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **Increasing Adoption**: Growing adoption of Ethereum and its applications, such as decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), could lead to increased demand and higher prices. (Strength: 7/10)
2. **Technical Improvements**: Ongoing development and improvements to the Ethereum network, such as the transition to proof-of-stake (PoS), could enhance its scalability and security, potentially increasing its value. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Investor Confidence**: Increased investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market and Ethereum specifically could lead to higher prices. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Market Trends**: Historical trends and market momentum could continue to drive Ethereum's price upward. (Strength: 4/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Considering the reasons provided, the main factors influencing Ethereum's price are its historical volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and global economic factors, which could lead to a decline in price. However, the increasing adoption of Ethereum, technical improvements, investor confidence, and market trends could drive its price upward. The strength of the reasons for a potential decline is slightly higher than the reasons for a potential increase.

**Initial Probability:**

Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of Ethereum's price being above $1850 on June 30th, 2023, at 11:59 PM EST to be 40.

**Evaluation of Initial Probability:**

The initial probability of 40 seems relatively low, considering the potential for increasing adoption and technical improvements. However, the historical volatility and regulatory uncertainty associated with the cryptocurrency market may still pose significant risks. The base rate of the event is unknown, but it's essential to consider that the cryptocurrency market is known for its unpredictability.

**Final Prediction:**

*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $27,000 on June 30th, 2023, at 11:59 PM EST, based on the median price values from Coinmarketcap, Coingecko, and the BTC/BUSD spot market on Binance? The resolution criteria for this question are not applicable or available, and the question is to be resolved on the specified date and time.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No (and their Strength):**

1. **Regulatory Uncertainty**: Ongoing regulatory changes and debates around cryptocurrencies, such as the proposed SEC regulations in the US, could lead to market volatility and potentially lower prices. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Economic Downturn**: The global economy is experiencing a slowdown, which could negatively impact investor confidence and cryptocurrency prices. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Increased Competition from Other Cryptocurrencies**: Other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum and stablecoins, are gaining popularity, which could lead to decreased demand for Bitcoin and lower prices. (Strength: 4/10)
4. **Market Sentiment**: Market sentiment can be unpredictable, and a shift in investor sentiment could lead to a decrease in Bitcoin's price. (Strength: 3/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes (and their Strength):**

1. **Increased Adoption**: Growing institutional investment and adoption of Bitcoin, such as by companies like Tesla and MicroStrategy, could lead to increased demand and higher prices. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Limited Supply**: The total supply of Bitcoin is limited, which could lead to increased demand and higher prices as more investors seek to invest in the cryptocurrency. (Strength: 9/10)
3. **Store of Value**: Bitcoin is often seen as a store of value, similar to gold, and its price could increase as investors seek safe-haven assets. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Technological Advancements**: Improvements in scalability and usability of the Bitcoin network could lead to increased adoption and higher prices. (Strength: 6/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

After considering the reasons for and against, I believe that the factors in favor of a higher price (limited supply, increased adoption, store of value, and technological advancements) outweigh the factors against (regulatory uncertainty, economic downturn, increased competition, and market sentiment). However, the strength of these factors is not evenly distributed, and the outcome is uncertain.

**Initial Probability:**

Based on my aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Bitcoin's price being above $27,000 on June 30th, 2023, at 11:59 PM EST as 62%.

**Evaluation of Confidence:**

Upon reevaluation, I realize that my initial probability might be too high. The factors against a higher price, such as regulatory uncertainty and economic downturn, are significant and could potentially impact the market. Additionally, the base rate of the event (Bitcoin's price being above $27,000) is not provided, which could affect the overall probability. Therefore, I should be more cautious in my estimate.

**Final Prediction:**

*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Given the information provided, I will attempt to answer whether the price of Ethereum (ETH) will be above $2200 on June 30th, 2024, at 11:59 PM EST. The resolution criteria is not applicable or available, and the current date is June 1st, 2023. I will rely on my knowledge of the world and the topic to provide a prediction based on the median of CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, and the ETH/BUSD spot market prices on or before July 1st, 2024.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

* Reason 1: Market volatility is a significant factor in cryptocurrency prices. The price of Ethereum can fluctuate rapidly due to various market forces, which might lead to a decline below $2200 by June 30th. (Strength: 4)
* Reason 2: Economic downturns or global economic instability can negatively impact cryptocurrency prices, including Ethereum. If a recession or economic downturn occurs, it might cause a decrease in investor confidence, leading to lower prices. (Strength: 4)
* Reason 3: Regulatory changes or announcements can affect the price of Ethereum. If there are any negative regulatory developments or announcements, it might lead to a decline in price. (Strength: 3)
* Reason 4: Competition from other cryptocurrencies or technological advancements can erode Ethereum's market share and lead to a decline in price. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

* Reason 1: Growing adoption and increasing use of Ethereum in various applications, such as decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), can drive up the price. (Strength: 4)
* Reason 2: Improvements in Ethereum's scalability and efficiency through upgrades, such as the transition to proof-of-stake (PoS), can increase its appeal and lead to higher prices. (Strength: 4)
* Reason 3: Increasing institutional investment and interest in cryptocurrencies can drive up demand and prices, including Ethereum. (Strength: 3)
* Reason 4: Positive sentiment and hype around Ethereum's potential for long-term growth and adoption can lead to price increases. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the market forces and external factors might be more likely to influence Ethereum's price in a downward direction. However, the growth and adoption of Ethereum, as well as potential upgrades and improvements, might drive the price up. The strength of the reasons for a decline seems slightly higher, but the overall picture is complex and uncertain.

5. Initial probability:

Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of Ethereum's price being above $2200 on June 30th, 2024, at 11:59 PM EST to be around 40%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:

My initial probability of 40% seems relatively cautious, considering the potential growth and adoption of Ethereum. However, the market is inherently unpredictable, and the factors that might lead to a decline in price seem more significant. I should consider the base rate of the event, which is that the price of Ethereum might not be above $2200 on June 30th, 2024. This base rate might be around 50% or higher, considering the market's volatility and the potential for various factors to influence the price.

7. Final prediction:

Given the considerations and evaluation above, my final prediction is *0.42*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2000 on June 30th, 2024, at 11:59 PM EST, according to the median of Coinmarketcap, Coingecko, and the ETH/BUSD spot market on Binance? This question will be resolved based on the closing price on the specified date and time, considering the available data from the mentioned sources.

Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Global Economic Downturn**: A potential global economic downturn could negatively impact cryptocurrency prices, including Ethereum, making it less likely for the price to reach $2000. (Strength: 4)
2. **Regulatory Uncertainty**: Ongoing regulatory challenges and potential changes in laws or regulations could negatively impact Ethereum's price. (Strength: 3)
3. **Market Volatility**: Cryptocurrency markets are known for their volatility, and a significant downturn in the market could prevent Ethereum from reaching $2000. (Strength: 4)
4. **Competition from Alternative Cryptocurrencies**: Other cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin or new emerging players, might gain traction and attract investors, reducing Ethereum's market value. (Strength: 2)
5. **Technical Issues**: Technical issues with the Ethereum network, such as scalability problems or security concerns, could negatively impact investor confidence and the price. (Strength: 2)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Increasing Adoption**: Growing adoption of Ethereum in various industries, such as DeFi, NFTs, and gaming, could drive up demand and price. (Strength: 4)
2. **Improved Scalability**: Ongoing developments in Ethereum's scalability, such as the transition to Ethereum 2.0, could increase its appeal and value. (Strength: 4)
3. **Investor Sentiment**: Positive investor sentiment, driven by increasing institutional investment and media attention, could contribute to a price increase. (Strength: 3)
4. **Limited Supply**: The limited supply of Ethereum, combined with increasing demand, could drive up the price. (Strength: 5)
5. **Historical Trends**: Ethereum has shown significant price growth in the past, and some analysts predict continued growth. (Strength: 3)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for a "no" and "yes" answer, it seems that the factors pointing towards a "no" answer are more significant, with a strong global economic downturn and market volatility being major concerns. However, the factors pointing towards a "yes" answer, such as increasing adoption and improved scalability, are also substantial.

Initial probability: 45

Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 45 seems relatively moderate, considering the potential factors that could influence the price. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of the price reaching $2000 without any specific knowledge of the future). Without additional information, it's challenging to estimate this base rate. To be more conservative, I'll adjust the probability to account for the uncertainty.

Final prediction: *0.4*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, cease all combat operations in Ukraine by the end of July 2023, according to multiple reliable sources? This includes a complete halt in operations without any temporary halts for recuperation. The resolution will be based on information available up to August 1, 2023, and any resumption of operations prior to this date will be considered a temporary halt and result in a "no" answer.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the strongest reason):

- Reason 1: The Wagner Group's leadership and financing structure are complex and difficult to track, making it challenging to confirm a complete cessation of operations. (Strength: 6)
- Reason 2: The Wagner Group has a history of operating in Ukraine, and their involvement may be more extensive than initially reported. (Strength: 5)
- Reason 3: The Russian government might still be supporting the Wagner Group, even if they are not directly involved in combat operations. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 4: The Wagner Group's actions in Ukraine might be part of a larger strategy, and a temporary halt in operations does not necessarily mean they will stop entirely. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the strongest reason):

- Reason 1: Multiple reliable sources have reported that the Wagner Group is not involved in combat operations in Ukraine, indicating a possible complete cessation of activities. (Strength: 9)
- Reason 2: The Wagner Group's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has been critical of the Russian government, which might lead to a reevaluation of their involvement in Ukraine. (Strength: 8)
- Reason 3: The international community's increased scrutiny of the Wagner Group might make it difficult for them to continue operating in Ukraine. (Strength: 7)
- Reason 4: The Wagner Group's involvement in Ukraine might be limited to specific areas or operations, and a complete halt in all activities is possible. (Strength: 6)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the strength of the reasons for a "yes" answer seems to outweigh those for a "no" answer. The multiple reliable sources indicating the Wagner Group's lack of involvement in combat operations in Ukraine (Reason 1 in the "yes" section) is a strong indicator that they might cease all operations. However, the complexity of the Wagner Group's leadership and financing structure (Reason 1 in the "no" section) and the possibility of temporary halts in operations (Reason 4 in the "no" section) might affect the outcome.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the Wagner Group ceasing all combat operations in Ukraine by the end of July 2023 to be around 85%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively high, considering the complexity of the situation and the potential for temporary halts in operations. However, the strength of the reasons for a "yes" answer, particularly the multiple reliable sources indicating the Wagner Group's lack of involvement in combat operations, suggests that a high probability is warranted. The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of the Wagner Group ceasing operations in Ukraine) is not explicitly stated, but it is likely low given the group's history of involvement in Ukraine.

7. Final prediction:
*0.85*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.85
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Ethereum's price be above $1950 on June 30th, 2024, at 11:59 PM EST, according to the median of Coinmarketcap, Coingecko, and the ETH/BUSD spot market on Binance? Given the current date is June 1st, 2023, and the question's resolution criteria are not applicable/available for this question, I will consider various factors that might influence Ethereum's price by June 30th, 2024.

Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-10 for strength, 10 being the strongest):

1. **Regulatory uncertainty**: Regulatory changes or increased scrutiny from governments could negatively impact Ethereum's price. (Strength: 6)
2. **Economic downturn**: A global economic recession or downturn could reduce investor confidence and decrease Ethereum's price. (Strength: 8)
3. **Increased competition from alternative cryptocurrencies**: Growing competition from other cryptocurrencies or decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms might reduce Ethereum's market share and price. (Strength: 5)
4. **Technological advancements**: Alternative blockchain technologies or innovations could potentially replace or surpass Ethereum, affecting its price. (Strength: 4)
5. **Market volatility**: Cryptocurrency markets are known for their volatility, and a sudden downturn could cause Ethereum's price to drop below $1950. (Strength: 9)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-10 for strength, 10 being the strongest):

1. **Increasing adoption**: Growing adoption of Ethereum in various industries, such as gaming, finance, and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), could increase its price. (Strength: 7)
2. **Improved scalability**: Ethereum's upcoming upgrades, such as Ethereum 2.0, could enhance its scalability and usability, potentially increasing its price. (Strength: 6)
3. **Investor sentiment**: Positive sentiment among investors and the broader market could drive up Ethereum's price. (Strength: 5)
4. **Limited supply**: Ethereum's limited supply and increasing demand could contribute to a higher price. (Strength: 8)
5. **Historical trends**: Ethereum's price has shown an upward trend in the past, which could continue. (Strength: 4)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons provided, the most significant factors influencing Ethereum's price are regulatory uncertainty (Strength: 6), economic downturn (Strength: 8), market volatility (Strength: 9), and limited supply (Strength: 8). These factors have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market and Ethereum's price. However, the potential for increasing adoption, improved scalability, and investor sentiment could also contribute to a higher price.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of the initial probability:

The initial probability of 40 seems reasonable, given the balanced mix of positive and negative factors. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as some of the negative factors (e.g., market volatility and economic downturn) have a high strength rating. It's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is not explicitly stated. Assuming a base rate of 50% (i.e., the probability of Ethereum's price being above $1950 on June 30th, 2024, is 50%), the initial probability of 40 might be considered too low.

Final prediction: *0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the main LK-99 market reach 6,000 traders by December 14, 2023, considering its current growth rate and market conditions, given that it has 4,000 traders as of August 1, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* The market might not be able to sustain its current growth rate, which could be influenced by various factors such as competition, user engagement, and overall market trends (Strength: 3).
* The LK-99 market might not be able to attract enough new traders to reach the 6,000 milestone, possibly due to a lack of awareness or interest in the market (Strength: 2).
* The market's growth could be hindered by regulatory or technical issues, such as changes in market rules or platform maintenance (Strength: 1).
* The market's current size of 4,000 traders might be an anomaly, and the growth rate might slow down as it approaches the 6,000 mark (Strength: 2).
* The question's resolution criteria are not applicable, which could indicate that the market's growth is not well-defined or predictable (Strength: 1).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* The market has shown a steady growth rate, and if it continues at a similar pace, it is likely to reach 6,000 traders by December 14, 2023 (Strength: 4).
* The market's current size of 4,000 traders is a significant achievement, and it is reasonable to expect further growth as more people become aware of the market (Strength: 3).
* The market's growth could be driven by increasing interest in the underlying asset or topic, which could lead to a sustained growth rate (Strength: 3).
* The market's growth might be influenced by the actions of a small group of influential traders or promoters, which could lead to a rapid increase in the number of traders (Strength: 2).
* The market's current growth rate is relatively high, and it is possible that it could continue to grow at a similar rate until December 14, 2023 (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided above, the main factors that could affect the market's growth are its current growth rate, user engagement, and market trends. The market has shown a steady growth rate, and it is reasonable to expect further growth as more people become aware of the market. However, there are also some potential risks, such as a slow-down in growth or regulatory issues. Overall, the evidence suggests that the market is likely to reach 6,000 traders by December 14, 2023.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the market reaching 6,000 traders by December 14, 2023, as 70.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 70 might be considered somewhat confident, but it is still a reasonable estimate given the available information. However, it is essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is the likelihood of a market reaching 6,000 traders in a similar timeframe. Without more information about the base rate, it is challenging to estimate it accurately.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the S&P 500 close at 4507.66 or higher on 2023-09-29, considering the historical closing prices from January to September 2023 (4076.60, 3970.15, 4109.31, 4169.48, 4179.83, 4450.38, 4588.96, 4507.66, 4288.05), and taking into account the recent trend and overall market conditions?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength rating out of 10):
- The S&P 500 has shown a downward trend in the past few months, with a decline from 4588.96 to 4288.05, indicating a possible continuation of the downtrend (Strength: 6)
- The recent decline in the S&P 500 might be a sign of a broader market correction, which could continue in September (Strength: 7)
- The overall market conditions, including economic indicators and global events, might be unfavorable for the S&P 500 in September (Strength: 4)
- Historical data might not accurately predict future market movements, and the S&P 500 could experience an unexpected surge (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength rating out of 10):
- The S&P 500 has shown resilience in the past and could bounce back from the recent decline (Strength: 5)
- The market has historically experienced upward movements in September, with the S&P 500 often showing a "September effect" (Strength: 6)
- The overall market conditions, including economic indicators and global events, might be favorable for the S&P 500 in September (Strength: 4)
- The S&P 500 has already reached a high of 4588.96 in August, indicating a possible upward trend (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the historical trend, recent market movements, and overall market conditions, the S&P 500 is more likely to experience a continuation of the downtrend rather than a significant upward movement. However, the "September effect" and the market's resilience could contribute to a possible bounce back.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the S&P 500 closing at 4507.66 or higher on 2023-09-29 to be around 30.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 30 might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the "September effect" and the market's potential resilience. However, it also does not overestimate the likelihood of a significant upward movement.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the ongoing Writers Guild of America (WGA) strike, involving both the Writers Guild of America West (WGAW) and the Writers Guild of America East (WGAE), end by October 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, based on official information from the WGA and a consensus of credible reporting?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Complexity of negotiations** (Strength: 8/10): The WGA strike has been ongoing for some time, and negotiations between the guild and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) may be complex and difficult to resolve. This could lead to a prolonged strike.
- **Reason 2: Industry impact** (Strength: 6/10): The strike has already had a significant impact on the entertainment industry, and studios and producers may be reluctant to give in to the WGA's demands, potentially prolonging the strike.
- **Reason 3: Historical context** (Strength: 4/10): Past WGA strikes have often been prolonged, which could indicate a pattern of difficulty in resolving these negotiations.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Pressure from advertisers** (Strength: 9/10): Advertisers have been affected by the strike, and their pressure on the industry to resolve the dispute could lead to a swift resolution.
- **Reason 2: Public support** (Strength: 8/10): The WGA has received significant public support, which could give them leverage in negotiations and encourage a quicker resolution.
- **Reason 3: Industry's financial interests** (Strength: 7/10): The entertainment industry's financial interests may align with a quick resolution to the strike, as prolonged strikes can have significant financial consequences.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the strike's complexity and historical context suggest a prolonged strike, while the pressure from advertisers, public support, and industry financial interests suggest a quicker resolution. The strength of these reasons is relatively balanced, but the pressure from advertisers and public support are more significant factors.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the initial probability of the WGA strike ending by October 15, 2023, to be 42.

6. Evaluation of confidence:
My initial probability seems relatively conservative, given the significant pressure from advertisers and public support. However, the complexity of negotiations and historical context suggest that there are valid reasons for concern. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the frequency of WGA strikes), it's not uncommon for them to last several months. This might make my initial probability too optimistic.

7. Final prediction:
*0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and expanded question:**
Will the YouTube channel "Destiny" reach exactly 701,000 subscribers by the end of August 2023, given that it has not reached 701,000 subscribers in August and has reached 700,000 subscribers in August, but not 701,000, and has not reached 703,000, 706,000, 725,000, or 750,000 subscribers in August?

**Reasons why the answer might be no:**

1. **Lack of growth momentum**: The channel has not reached 701,000 subscribers in August, which suggests a lack of growth momentum. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Historical trends**: The channel's subscriber growth rate may not be consistent enough to reach 701,000 subscribers by the end of August. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Competing content**: The YouTube landscape is highly competitive, and the channel may face challenges in attracting new subscribers amidst the competition. (Strength: 4/10)

**Reasons why the answer might be yes:**

1. **Recent growth**: The channel has reached 700,000 subscribers in August, indicating a recent growth trend. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Consistency in subscriber growth**: The channel has consistently grown its subscriber base over time, suggesting a stable and potentially increasing growth rate. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Potential for continued growth**: The channel's growth rate may be underestimated, and it could reach 701,000 subscribers by the end of August. (Strength: 6/10)

**Aggregated considerations:**
Considering the reasons above, I believe the probability of the channel reaching 701,000 subscribers by the end of August is relatively low, but not impossible. The recent growth trend and consistency in subscriber growth are positive indicators, but the lack of growth momentum and historical trends suggest a more cautious approach.

**Initial probability:**
I estimate the probability of the channel reaching 701,000 subscribers by the end of August to be around 30%.

**Evaluation of initial probability:**
Upon reflection, I realize that my initial probability might be too low, given the recent growth trend and consistency in subscriber growth. I may have underestimated the channel's potential for continued growth.

**Final prediction:**
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Baldur's Gate 3 remain the highest-rated game of all time on OpenCritic by the end of August 2023, given that it is currently ranked as the highest scoring game on the platform? 

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
1. New games are released: New games are being released every month, and some of them might receive high ratings that could potentially surpass Baldur's Gate 3's score (strength: 4).
2. Critic and user reviews are subject to change: Opinions on games can change over time, and some critics or users might revise their reviews, which could affect Baldur's Gate 3's overall score (strength: 3).
3. OpenCritic's algorithm and user base can influence rankings: The OpenCritic algorithm and its user base can influence the ranking, and a shift in user preferences or algorithm updates could affect the ranking of Baldur's Gate 3 (strength: 2).
4. Other games might receive updates or patches that improve their scores: Games can receive updates or patches that improve their overall experience, which could lead to increased ratings (strength: 2).
5. OpenCritic's data might be incomplete or biased: OpenCritic's data might be incomplete or biased, which could affect the accuracy of the rankings (strength: 1).

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
1. Baldur's Gate 3 has received widespread critical acclaim: Baldur's Gate 3 has received overwhelmingly positive reviews from critics, which could make it difficult for other games to surpass its score (strength: 5).
2. It is a highly anticipated game: The game has been highly anticipated, and its release might have garnered a large amount of attention from critics and users, which could contribute to its high ranking (strength: 4).
3. Its genre is highly competitive: The RPG genre is highly competitive, and Baldur's Gate 3's high score might be a result of its exceptional quality, making it harder for other games to surpass it (strength: 4).
4. It has a strong developer reputation: Larian Studios has a reputation for creating high-quality games, which could contribute to Baldur's Gate 3's high ranking (strength: 3).
5. The game's release is relatively recent: Baldur's Gate 3 was released recently, and its score might be more stable compared to older games that have had more time for opinions to change (strength: 2).

Aggregated considerations:
Taking into account the reasons for both yes and no, I consider the following:

* Baldur's Gate 3's high critical acclaim and its developer's reputation are strong factors in its favor.
* The possibility of new games being released and receiving high ratings is a significant threat to its ranking.
* The influence of OpenCritic's algorithm and user base is a potential wild card that could affect the ranking.

Initial probability: 70

Evaluation:
My initial probability of 70% might be excessively confident, given that there are several factors that could affect the ranking, including new game releases and changes in critic and user opinions. However, Baldur's Gate 3's high critical acclaim and its developer's reputation provide a strong foundation for its ranking.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars defeat the New Orleans Saints in their upcoming NFL game on a date between October 19th and October 21st, 2023? The resolution criteria for this question are not explicitly stated, and the current date is October 19th, 2023. Given this context, I will consider the teams' past performances, current standings, and any other relevant factors to provide a prediction.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have struggled with consistency throughout the season, and their performance has been inconsistent. (Strength: 3)
- The New Orleans Saints have a strong offense, which could pose a challenge for the Jaguars' defense. (Strength: 4)
- The Saints have a better record in their division and a stronger overall record compared to the Jaguars. (Strength: 5)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Jaguars have shown improvement in their defense, which could help them contain the Saints' offense. (Strength: 3)
- The Saints have struggled with injuries to key players, which could impact their performance. (Strength: 4)
- The Jaguars have a strong home-field advantage, which could give them an edge in the game. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the Saints' strong offense and better overall record are significant concerns for the Jaguars. However, the Jaguars' improved defense and the Saints' injuries could provide opportunities for the Jaguars to win. The home-field advantage is also a factor, but its impact is less significant compared to the other factors.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Jaguars defeating the Saints at 45%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 45% seems reasonable, given the mixed factors at play. However, it is essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is not explicitly provided. Assuming that the base rate of the Jaguars defeating the Saints is around 40-50%, the initial probability seems to be in line with this range. However, it is essential to note that the base rate might be higher or lower, which could impact the final probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft record of 16:38:37 before November 2023? Considering Forsen's current progress and past performance, what are the chances he will surpass this record within the given timeframe? This question assumes that Forsen is actively attempting to beat the record.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Forsen might not be actively trying to beat the record, which would make it unlikely for him to achieve it before November 2023 (Strength: 4).
- xQc's record is extremely challenging, and Forsen might not have the necessary skills or time to improve significantly to beat it (Strength: 5).
- Forsen's progress might be hindered by factors like burnout, health issues, or other personal problems (Strength: 3).
- The community and Forsen himself might not be aware of the current record, which could affect his motivation to attempt it (Strength: 2).
- There might be other Minecraft players who are also working on beating the record, which could make it harder for Forsen to achieve (Strength: 1).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Forsen is a skilled Minecraft player with a strong track record of achievements (Strength: 4).
- He has the potential to improve significantly with practice and dedication (Strength: 4).
- Forsen has a strong community and resources that could support his attempt to beat the record (Strength: 3).
- He might have a competitive drive to beat xQc's record, which could motivate him to put in the necessary time and effort (Strength: 3).
- Forsen has experience with speedrunning and might have developed strategies to optimize his gameplay (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations: 
Taking into account the reasons provided above, it seems that Forsen has a decent chance of beating the record, but it's not a certainty. The strong points in favor of Forsen (his skills, potential for improvement, and community support) are somewhat balanced by the strong points against him (the difficulty of the record and the potential for external factors to hinder his progress).

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of initial probability: The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident given the strong points against Forsen. Considering the base rate of speedrunning records being broken, it's not a common occurrence, which might affect the forecast. Additionally, the timeframe of November 2023 is relatively close, which could impact Forsen's ability to prepare and improve.

7. Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will 'Starfield' be announced as a nominee for the Game of the Year category at The Game Awards 2023? Given the question's criteria, this market will resolve to YES if 'Starfield' is announced as a nominee, and it will resolve to NO if it is not. The resolution criteria are not applicable/available for this question. The question is set to close on November 13, 2023. We are currently on August 27, 2023, which means we have approximately 2.5 months before the resolution. 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 7/10**: The Game Awards 2023 nominees are typically announced in mid-November, and the voting process might not allow for last-minute entries or additions, potentially making it challenging for 'Starfield' to be included as a nominee.
- **Strength: 6/10**: The voting process for The Game Awards might prioritize games that have been released closer to the nomination announcement date, and since 'Starfield' is expected to be released in 2023, it might not have a significant presence in the gaming community at the time of nominations.
- **Strength: 5/10**: The nominees for Game of the Year are often chosen based on a game's overall impact, critical acclaim, and commercial success, and 'Starfield' might not meet these criteria if it is released too close to the nomination date.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 9/10**: Bethesda Game Studios, the developer of 'Starfield,' has a history of creating highly acclaimed games, such as 'The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim' and 'Fallout 4.' 'Starfield' is expected to be a flagship title, and its quality might earn it a nomination.
- **Strength: 8/10**: 'Starfield' is a highly anticipated game, and its release in 2023 could generate significant buzz, potentially leading to a strong presence in the gaming community and increased chances of a nomination.
- **Strength: 7/10**: The Game Awards often recognize games that push boundaries and innovate in their respective genres, and 'Starfield' is expected to be a sci-fi RPG that could potentially fit this category.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Taking into account the reasons provided, it seems that the 'Starfield' has a moderate to high chance of being nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023. The strength of the reasons for 'yes' outweighs those for 'no,' with the possibility of 'Starfield' being a highly anticipated and innovative game in the sci-fi RPG genre.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially predict a 60% chance of 'Starfield' being nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems moderate and takes into account the uncertainty of the situation. However, it might be worth considering the base rate of games being nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards. Historically, a significant number of games are nominated, but only a few receive the award. This might indicate that the base rate of being nominated is relatively high, which could impact the probability of 'Starfield' being nominated.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Cruise successfully relaunch its driverless taxi operations in San Francisco by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, following the California DMV's suspension due to safety concerns on October 24, 2023? This market resolves to "Yes" if Cruise resumes its driverless taxi operations in San Francisco by the given deadline, indicating a full-scale operational return, not mere tests or demonstrations. The resolution source will be information from Cruise, in addition to credible media reporting. This question considers the company's ability to address the safety concerns raised by the California DMV and its capacity to meet the necessary requirements for a successful relaunch.

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No" (with strength ratings):
- The California DMV's suspension indicates significant safety concerns, which Cruise needs to address before a relaunch. (Strength: 8/10)
- The company may face regulatory hurdles in meeting the DMV's requirements, potentially leading to delays. (Strength: 6/10)
- Cruise might need to invest substantial resources in revamping its safety protocols, which could take time. (Strength: 7/10)
- Public trust and confidence in the technology could be a challenge for Cruise to overcome after the suspension. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes" (with strength ratings):
- Cruise has the resources and expertise to address the safety concerns and implement necessary changes. (Strength: 8/10)
- The company has experience with autonomous vehicle testing and may have learned from previous incidents. (Strength: 6/10)
- Cruise might be able to negotiate with the California DMV to address their concerns and meet the requirements for a relaunch. (Strength: 5/10)
- A successful relaunch could boost public confidence in autonomous technology, benefiting Cruise and the industry as a whole. (Strength: 4/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both "Yes" and "No," it seems that Cruise's ability to address safety concerns and meet regulatory requirements will be crucial. The company's resources, expertise, and experience could be assets in overcoming the challenges. However, the public's perception and the DMV's requirements pose significant hurdles. The strength of the "Yes" reasons is slightly higher, but the "No" reasons are still substantial.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially predict a 60% chance of Cruise relaunching its driverless taxi operations in San Francisco by December 31, 2023.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems relatively conservative, considering the strengths of the "Yes" reasons. However, it also acknowledges the significant challenges Cruise faces in addressing safety concerns and meeting regulatory requirements. The base rate of successful relaunches for companies like Cruise is not well-defined, but the industry's rapid progress and Cruise's resources suggest that a 60% probability might be too low. Considering this, the initial probability might be excessively cautious.

7. Final prediction:
Given the reevaluation, I would adjust the probability to *0.65*. This reflects a slightly higher confidence in Cruise's ability to relaunch its driverless taxi operations in San Francisco by December 31, 2023, while still acknowledging the challenges the company faces.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Kevin McCarthy remain Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives without interruption from September 13, 2023, through October 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This market will resolve to "Yes" if he continues to hold the position without any changes in leadership or votes of no confidence during this period. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Kevin McCarthy or his representative. A consensus of credible reporting will also be considered sufficient for resolution. The question will close on October 3, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):

- **Reason 1: Party infighting and potential leadership challenges**: There is a possibility of internal conflicts within the Republican Party, which could lead to a challenge to Kevin McCarthy's leadership. Strength: 60%
- **Reason 2: External factors and pressure from other parties**: External events or pressure from other parties could lead to a loss of confidence in Kevin McCarthy's leadership, potentially resulting in a vote of no confidence. Strength: 40%
- **Reason 3: Personal scandals or controversies**: Kevin McCarthy could be involved in a personal scandal or controversy that could damage his reputation and lead to a loss of support from his party. Strength: 20%

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):

- **Reason 1: Kevin McCarthy's control over the House**: As Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy has significant power and influence, which could help him maintain his position. Strength: 80%
- **Reason 2: Party loyalty**: Many Republicans may be loyal to Kevin McCarthy and support him in his position, making it difficult for others to challenge him. Strength: 70%
- **Reason 3: Lack of viable alternatives**: There may not be a strong, viable alternative to Kevin McCarthy as Speaker, making it difficult for others to challenge him. Strength: 60%

4. Aggregated considerations:
Taking into account the reasons provided, it seems that the likelihood of Kevin McCarthy remaining Speaker of the House without interruption is relatively high, with a strong likelihood of party loyalty and Kevin McCarthy's control over the House working in his favor. However, there are potential risks, such as party infighting and external factors, that could lead to a loss of confidence in his leadership.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Kevin McCarthy remaining Speaker of the House without interruption from September 13 to October 15, 2023, as 85.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 85 seems relatively high, but it is not excessively confident. However, it's worth noting that the base rate of Speaker changes is relatively low, and Kevin McCarthy has already survived a significant challenge to his leadership. This could suggest that the probability might be slightly higher than initially estimated.

7. Final prediction:
*0.85*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.85
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will 'Super Mario Bros. Wonder' be nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023, which is typically held in December? If 'Super Mario Bros. Wonder' is announced as a nominee for the Game of the Year category at The Game Awards 2023, this market will resolve to YES. If the nominees are announced and 'Super Mario Bros. Wonder' is not one of them, this market will resolve to NO. The Game Awards 2023 nominees are usually announced in November 2023. As of October 25, 2023, we are about 19 days away from the potential nominees announcement, which is on or before November 13, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- The Game Awards 2023 nominees have not been officially announced yet, and Nintendo might not prioritize 'Super Mario Bros. Wonder' for this award. (Strength: 6/10)
- The game might not meet the Game Awards' criteria for the Game of the Year category, which typically requires games to be released in the eligible time frame and have a significant impact on the gaming industry. (Strength: 7/10)
- Nintendo has a history of focusing on their own awards and recognition, such as the Nintendo Game Awards, rather than external awards like The Game Awards. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- 'Super Mario Bros. Wonder' is a highly anticipated game from a renowned franchise, and Nintendo often receives significant recognition from The Game Awards. (Strength: 8/10)
- The game's innovative gameplay and potential impact on the gaming industry could make it a strong contender for the Game of the Year award. (Strength: 8.5/10)
- Nintendo has a history of winning Game of the Year awards at The Game Awards, and 'Super Mario Bros. Wonder' could be a strong candidate for this recognition. (Strength: 9/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Game Awards 2023 nominees have not been announced yet, but based on the reasons provided, it seems that 'Super Mario Bros. Wonder' has a good chance of being nominated. The strength of the reasons for a 'yes' answer outweighs those for a 'no' answer, suggesting a higher likelihood of nomination.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the initial probability of 'Super Mario Bros. Wonder' being nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023 to be around 70%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 70% seems reasonable, given the available information. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is typically around 10-20% for most Game of the Year nominees. This means that 'Super Mario Bros. Wonder' might face strong competition from other games, and the actual probability might be lower than initially estimated.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the competition and the base rate of the event, I adjust the initial probability to *0.55*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Mahmoud Abbas remain in power as the President of the State of Palestine and the Palestinian National Authority until 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2023, as confirmed by reliable sources such as verified news outlets or official Palestinian government statements, without any interruption or departure from the office due to death, resignation, or removal?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 8/10** Mahmoud Abbas' age (he was born in 1935) and health issues might lead to his inability to continue serving as the President, potentially resulting in his resignation or incapacitation.
- **Strength: 6/10** Abbas' leadership has been criticized, and there could be internal or external pressures for a change in leadership, potentially leading to his removal from office.
- **Strength: 4/10** Abbas' term as President is not explicitly defined, and there might be a power struggle or constitutional issues that could lead to a change in leadership.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 9/10** Mahmoud Abbas has been in power for over 15 years, and there is no clear indication of a strong opposition or a viable alternative candidate who could challenge him for the presidency.
- **Strength: 7/10** Abbas has maintained his position despite various challenges and conflicts, suggesting he might continue to hold onto power.
- **Strength: 3/10** Abbas has shown a willingness to negotiate and make concessions, which might lead to a continued tenure as President.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the most significant factor is Mahmoud Abbas' age and potential health issues, which could lead to his departure from office. However, his ability to maintain power for over 15 years and the lack of a clear alternative candidate suggest that he might continue to hold onto power.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the mixed factors at play. However, it might be slightly conservative, as the factors suggesting Abbas' continued tenure (his ability to maintain power and lack of a clear alternative) seem more substantial than the factors indicating his departure (his age and health issues). Considering the base rate of the event, it's worth noting that many world leaders have continued to hold power well into old age, so this factor should not be overemphasized.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will 'Lies of P' be nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023? Given that the nominees for Game of the Year are typically chosen by a combination of industry experts, media outlets, and a public vote, what is the likelihood that 'Lies of P' will be selected as a nominee for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023, considering the game's reception, critical acclaim, and overall impact in the gaming community? If 'Lies of P' is announced as a nominee for the Game of the Year category at The Game Awards 2023, this market will resolve to YES. If the nominees are announced and 'Lies of P' is not one of them, this market will resolve to NO.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1 to 10 for strength, with 10 being the strongest):

- Reason 1: 'Lies of P' might not have received widespread critical acclaim or commercial success, which could impact its chances of being nominated. (Strength: 6)
- Reason 2: The Game Awards might have a strong preference for other games that have received more attention and hype. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 3: The nomination process might be heavily influenced by the preferences of the industry experts and media outlets, which could overlook 'Lies of P'. (Strength: 5)
- Reason 4: The game might not fit the typical mold of a Game of the Year contender, which could make it less likely to be nominated. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1 to 10 for strength, with 10 being the strongest):

- Reason 1: 'Lies of P' has received positive reviews and has a dedicated fan base, which could contribute to its nomination. (Strength: 7)
- Reason 2: The game's unique blend of elements from 'Puppeteer' and 'Sweeney Todd' could make it stand out and increase its chances of being nominated. (Strength: 6)
- Reason 3: The Game Awards might recognize 'Lies of P' for its innovative gameplay mechanics and storytelling. (Strength: 8)
- Reason 4: The game's developer, Neowiz Games, might have a strong relationship with the Game Awards organizers, which could help 'Lies of P' get nominated. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, it seems that the game's reception, critical acclaim, and innovative gameplay mechanics are in its favor. However, the nomination process and the preferences of industry experts and media outlets might work against it. Overall, the chances of 'Lies of P' being nominated for Game of the Year seem plausible but not extremely high.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems reasonable, as it reflects the mixed considerations of both the positive and negative factors. However, it might be worth considering the base rate of games being nominated for Game of the Year, which is typically around 10-20%. This might make the initial probability seem too high. On the other hand, 'Lies of P' has received positive reviews and has a dedicated fan base, which could increase its chances.

7. Final prediction: *0.32*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.32
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will 'Dave the Diver' be nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023? Given the information provided, I will consider the following factors:
- The game 'Dave the Diver' must be officially announced as a nominee for the Game of the Year category at The Game Awards 2023.
- The announcement of nominees will take place before the question's close date (November 13, 2023).
- The Game Awards 2023's nomination process and criteria for the Game of the Year category will be followed.
- The nominees for the Game of the Year category will be chosen from eligible games released in 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength of each reason):
- The game 'Dave the Diver' might not meet the Game Awards 2023's eligibility criteria for the Game of the Year category (6/10).
- 'Dave the Diver' might not be a highly acclaimed or popular game in the gaming community (8/10).
- The Game Awards 2023's nomination committee might have a different vision or preferences for the Game of the Year category (7/10).
- Other games might have more significant marketing, critical, or commercial success, overshadowing 'Dave the Diver' (9/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength of each reason):
- 'Dave the Diver' has received positive reviews and attention from the gaming community (5/10).
- The game's unique concept or gameplay might appeal to the Game Awards 2023's nomination committee (4/10).
- 'Dave the Diver' has a dedicated fan base or developer reputation that could influence the nomination (3/10).
- The nomination process might prioritize diversity and representation, and 'Dave the Diver' could fit into this criteria (2/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the provided information and the reasons listed above, the game 'Dave the Diver' faces significant competition and has limited factors in its favor. The reasons against its nomination are stronger, but not insurmountable.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of 'Dave the Diver' being nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023 to be around 20.

6. Evaluation and refinement:
Upon further reflection, I consider that the base rate of games being nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023 is likely low, given the competition and the number of eligible games. This might make the event of 'Dave the Diver' being nominated less likely. Additionally, the strength of the reasons against its nomination (e.g., other games having more significant marketing, critical, or commercial success) might be underestimated. Considering these factors, I might be too optimistic with the initial probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the results of the paper titled "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" (XXXX) be successfully replicated at least two times by independent researchers unaffiliated with the authors of this paper by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, as verified by a consensus of credible sources and experts? If no such replication is achieved by December 31, 2023, or if there is ambiguity regarding the credibility of replications, and no publication of replication results in a reputable journal is achieved by July 31, 2024, the market will resolve to "No."

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength ratings):

* The scientific community has a history of being cautious when it comes to groundbreaking claims, and the concept of a room-temperature superconductor is particularly challenging to verify. (Strength: 6/10)
* The replication process involves multiple variables and steps, and even small errors or inconsistencies can lead to failed attempts. (Strength: 7/10)
* The authors of the original paper may have had access to resources, expertise, or specific conditions that are not readily available to other researchers, making it difficult to replicate the results. (Strength: 5/10)
* The scientific community has been fooled by false positives in the past, and the pressure to publish high-impact results can lead to errors or exaggerations. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength ratings):

* The original paper presents a clear and well-documented method for synthesizing the superconducting material, which could be easily followed by other researchers. (Strength: 8/10)
* The authors of the original paper have provided a detailed description of their synthesis method in a companion paper (XXXX), which could help facilitate replication. (Strength: 9/10)
* The potential implications of a room-temperature superconductor are significant, and the scientific community may be motivated to verify the results to advance the field. (Strength: 6/10)
* The existence of a room-temperature superconductor would be a major breakthrough, and the scientific community may be more likely to invest resources and effort into verifying the results. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, I believe that the likelihood of successful replication is higher than the likelihood of failure. The clear documentation of the synthesis method and the potential implications of a room-temperature superconductor suggest that researchers may be motivated to verify the results. However, the scientific community's history of caution and the potential for errors or inconsistencies in the replication process should not be underestimated.

5. Initial probability:
Based on my considerations, I would estimate the probability of successful replication at around 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability may be too low, given the significant potential implications of a room-temperature superconductor. The scientific community's enthusiasm for verifying the results could lead to a higher success rate than I initially estimated. Additionally, the base rate of breakthroughs in materials science is relatively low, but the potential impact of a room-temperature superconductor is so significant that it may be worth revising my estimate upwards.

7. Final prediction:
*0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will 'Sea of Stars' be announced as a nominee for the Game of the Year category at The Game Awards 2023? Given the information that the question will resolve to YES if 'Sea of Stars' is announced as a nominee and NO if it's not, I will consider various factors that might influence its chances of being nominated, such as the game's reception, its developer's reputation, the competition in the Game of the Year category, and any other relevant information available up to the question's close date of 2023-11-13.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- The game's release date might be too late to be considered for the Game of the Year category, as it typically favors games released in the previous year. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Game of the Year category often favors games with high commercial success, and 'Sea of Stars' might not have reached the same level of commercial success as other nominees. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Game Awards committee might have a different vision for the Game of the Year category, focusing on other games that better fit their criteria. (Strength: 5/10)
- The nomination process might be subjective, and the committee might not consider 'Sea of Stars' a strong contender. (Strength: 8/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- 'Sea of Stars' has received positive reviews from critics and players, which could increase its chances of being nominated. (Strength: 8/10)
- The game's developer, Sabotage Studio, has a good reputation in the gaming industry, which might work in its favor. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Game of the Year category often includes a mix of critically acclaimed and commercially successful games, and 'Sea of Stars' could fit into this mold. (Strength: 7/10)
- The nomination process might be more open to indie games, and 'Sea of Stars' is an indie title. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I believe that the nomination of 'Sea of Stars' for Game of the Year is not a certainty but has a reasonable chance. The game's positive reception, its developer's reputation, and the category's openness to indie games are in its favor. However, the late release date, commercial success, and subjective nature of the nomination process are working against it.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of 'Sea of Stars' being nominated for Game of the Year at 55%.

6. Evaluation and refinement:
Upon further consideration, I realize that the base rate of games being nominated for Game of the Year is relatively low, and the competition is fierce. This might make my initial probability of 55% overly optimistic. Additionally, I might have overestimated the impact of the game's positive reception and the developer's reputation. Taking these factors into account, I adjust my probability downward.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the military coup in Niger successfully consolidate power and maintain control over the country within the next month, avoiding both infighting among the coup leaders and a potential civil war, as of August 26, 2023? The question will resolve to yes if the military coup is able to establish a stable and secure government, with reasonable political power, within the specified timeframe.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The military coup might face internal power struggles and infighting among the coup leaders, potentially leading to a power vacuum (strength: 4).
- The international community might impose economic sanctions or diplomatic isolation on Niger, making it difficult for the coup leaders to maintain control (strength: 3).
- The coup might not have the support of the general population, leading to widespread protests and resistance (strength: 4).
- The military might not have the necessary resources or expertise to effectively govern the country, leading to a collapse of the government (strength: 3).
- External actors, such as neighboring countries or international organizations, might intervene to restore democracy and stability in Niger (strength: 4).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The military coup might have the support of a significant portion of the population, particularly those who are dissatisfied with the previous government (strength: 3).
- The coup leaders might be able to establish a transitional government that is widely accepted by the international community (strength: 2).
- The military might have a clear plan for governance and economic development, which could help to stabilize the country (strength: 2).
- The coup might be a response to a genuine crisis in the government, such as corruption or human rights abuses, which could lead to a more stable and legitimate government (strength: 3).
- The military might be able to use their control over the country's resources and infrastructure to maintain power (strength: 4).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against the success of the coup, it seems that the balance of power is slightly in favor of the coup leaders. The military might have the support of a significant portion of the population, and they have the resources and infrastructure to maintain control. However, the potential for internal power struggles, international sanctions, and external intervention could still pose significant challenges.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the coup succeeding as 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 might be slightly too confident, as there are many uncertainties and variables at play. The base rate of successful coups is relatively low, and the international community's response to the coup could be unpredictable. Additionally, the potential for external intervention or internal power struggles could still pose significant challenges to the coup leaders.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Miami Dolphins win the game against the New England Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium on October 29, 2023, at 10:00 PDT? The game will take place in the middle of the NFL season, and a win for the Dolphins would be a significant outcome. A game ending in a tie will be considered as a "no" outcome, and any game that does not have a clear winner will be considered as "N/A." Uncontemplated edge cases will be resolved based on the spirit of the question.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Miami Dolphins have had inconsistent performances in previous games, which might affect their chances against the Patriots (strength: 3). 
- The Patriots have a strong history of competing with the Dolphins, and their experience might give them an edge (strength: 4).
- The Dolphins' injuries and player absences might impact their ability to win the game (strength: 2).
- The Patriots' home-field advantage is a significant factor in their performance, and playing at Hard Rock Stadium might be challenging for the Dolphins (strength: 4).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Dolphins have shown improvement in their recent games, which might give them confidence to win against the Patriots (strength: 3).
- The Dolphins have a strong offense, and their ability to score points might be enough to overcome the Patriots' defense (strength: 4).
- The Dolphins' home-field advantage at Hard Rock Stadium could give them an edge, especially if they can contain the Patriots' offense (strength: 4).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the Dolphins' inconsistent performances and injuries might be a concern, but their recent improvement and strong offense could give them an edge. The Patriots' experience and home-field advantage are also significant factors. However, the Dolphins' ability to win at home and their strong offense might be enough to overcome these challenges.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of the Dolphins winning as 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, but it might be too high considering the Patriots' experience and home-field advantage. The Dolphins' inconsistent performances and injuries also raise concerns. However, their recent improvement and strong offense are positive factors. To adjust for these considerations, I might reduce the initial probability to 55.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will there be a successful coup d'état in an African nation in the next three months (from August 2, 2023, to November 20, 2023), excluding Niger, characterized by the removal of the former leader, significant military support or neutrality, a transitional leader, and persistence for at least one week? Success is defined by these four criteria, and the event will be considered a coup if these conditions are met.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* The stability of many African countries has improved in recent years due to democratic reforms and international pressure (Strength: 4). 
* The African Union and other international organizations have strengthened their stance against coups, making it more difficult for coup plotters to succeed (Strength: 4).
* Many African countries have strong, well-established institutions that can resist coup attempts (Strength: 3).
* The international community is likely to impose economic sanctions on countries that experience coups, making it harder for the new government to survive (Strength: 3).
* The presence of strong, charismatic leaders in some African countries makes it less likely for a coup to occur (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* There are ongoing political tensions and instability in several African countries, creating an environment conducive to coup attempts (Strength: 4).
* The military in some African countries has become increasingly assertive, potentially leading to coup attempts (Strength: 4).
* Economic instability and poverty can create an environment in which coups are more likely to occur (Strength: 3).
* The rise of non-state actors and extremist groups in some African countries can create power vacuums that may be filled by the military (Strength: 3).
* The history of coups in Africa suggests that they can occur at any time, and the next one could happen in the next three months (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, I note that the stability of African countries, international pressure, and strong institutions are working against a successful coup. However, ongoing political tensions, assertive militaries, economic instability, and the rise of non-state actors create an environment in which coups are possible. The history of coups in Africa also suggests that they can occur at any time.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I estimate the probability of a successful coup in an African nation in the next three months at 40.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems reasonable, but it may be too high considering the stability of many African countries and the efforts of international organizations to prevent coups. The base rate of coups in Africa is relatively low, and most coups are unsuccessful. Therefore, I may need to adjust the probability downward to account for these factors.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the current mysterious pneumonia outbreak in China, characterized by a novel or significantly mutated pathogen, spread beyond China in a significant way by December 31st, 2023, resulting in more than 1000 confirmed or highly likely confirmed cases outside of China?

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
1. **Stringent Chinese quarantine measures**: China has a history of imposing strict quarantine measures to contain outbreaks, which might be effective in limiting the spread of the disease. (Strength: 3)
2. **Global surveillance and monitoring**: The international community is likely to be on high alert for any signs of a new outbreak, and global surveillance and monitoring efforts might detect and contain the spread of the disease early on. (Strength: 3)
3. **Limited transmission**: If the pathogen is not highly contagious or has a short incubation period, the number of cases outside of China might remain low. (Strength: 2)
4. **Effective contact tracing**: China has experience with contact tracing, which could help identify and isolate infected individuals, reducing the risk of further transmission. (Strength: 2)
5. **Lack of evidence of human-to-human transmission**: If there is no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission, the spread of the disease might be limited. (Strength: 4)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
1. **Highly contagious pathogen**: If the pathogen is highly contagious and has a long incubation period, it could spread rapidly around the world before being detected and contained. (Strength: 5)
2. **Global air travel**: With the increasing ease of global travel, it's possible that infected individuals could spread the disease to other countries, even with stringent quarantine measures in place. (Strength: 4)
3. **Similarity to COVID-19**: The fact that the pneumonia outbreak in China shares some similarities with COVID-19, which spread rapidly around the world, raises concerns that this new pathogen might also spread globally. (Strength: 4)
4. **Limited preparedness**: While China has experience with outbreaks, other countries might not be as prepared to handle a new and potentially highly contagious disease. (Strength: 3)
5. **Mutation and adaptation**: If the pathogen is a mutation of an existing pathogen, it could adapt quickly to new environments, making it more likely to spread. (Strength: 3)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the most significant factors contributing to the spread of the disease are the potential for human-to-human transmission, the contagiousness of the pathogen, and the global air travel network. However, the stringent quarantine measures in China, global surveillance and monitoring, and effective contact tracing efforts might mitigate the spread of the disease.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems relatively cautious, given the potential risks associated with a highly contagious and rapidly spreading disease. However, it also takes into account the stringent quarantine measures in China and the global efforts to monitor and contain the outbreak.

Considerations that might affect the forecast:
The base rate of global pandemics is relatively low, but when they do occur, they can have significant consequences. The fact that this is a novel or significantly mutated pathogen adds an element of uncertainty, making it more challenging to predict the outcome.

Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will 2023 be the hottest year on record globally, based on the average global temperature, as measured by reliable and widely accepted climate datasets, by the time the year 2024 has ended and the necessary data is available for analysis? 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 4/10**: Natural climate variability can cause fluctuations in global temperatures, and it's possible that 2023 might experience a cooling trend due to natural climate patterns such as El Niño or La Niña events.
- **Strength: 6/10**: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that the rate of global warming will slow down in the coming years due to various factors, including the decline of greenhouse gas emissions and the increasing role of aerosol cooling effects.
- **Strength: 3/10**: The year 2023 might experience a particularly strong volcanic eruption, which can temporarily cool the planet by releasing aerosols into the atmosphere.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 9/10**: The long-term trend of global warming is expected to continue due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and it's likely that 2023 will be another year of rising global temperatures.
- **Strength: 7/10**: The year 2022 was the fifth-hottest year on record, and it's possible that 2023 will be even hotter due to the persistence of climate change.
- **Strength: 5/10**: The Arctic is warming at a faster rate than the rest of the planet, which can lead to a higher global average temperature due to the redistribution of heat from the Arctic to the rest of the planet.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that the long-term trend of global warming is likely to continue, but there are some natural factors that could potentially influence the temperature in 2023. However, these factors are not strong enough to outweigh the overall trend of climate change.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate that the probability of 2023 being the hottest year on record is 60.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability of 60 seems relatively high, considering that it's a relatively short-term prediction and there are many factors that can influence global temperatures. However, the long-term trend of climate change suggests that it's more likely than not that 2023 will be a hot year. The base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of a year being the hottest on record) is relatively low, but it's difficult to estimate this rate accurately.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Will the S&P 500 close at or above 4552.7366 on September 29, 2023, given its historical closing prices from January to September 2023? The historical closing prices for the S&P 500 from January to September 2023 are as follows: 4076.60, 3970.15, 4109.31, 4169.48, 4179.83, 4450.38, 4588.96, 4507.66, and 4288.05.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **Historical Trends:** The S&P 500 has had a relatively flat to slightly declining trend from January to September 2023, with only one month (July) showing a significant increase. This might indicate that the market is experiencing a correction or a period of consolidation, which could lead to a decline in the index. Strength: 6/10
2. **Economic Indicators:** The US economy has been experiencing a slowdown, with rising inflation, a potential recession, and a decline in consumer confidence. This could lead to a decrease in investor confidence and a subsequent decline in the S&P 500. Strength: 7/10
3. **Geopolitical Uncertainty:** Ongoing global conflicts, trade tensions, and economic sanctions could lead to market volatility and a decline in the S&P 500. Strength: 5/10
4. **Interest Rates:** The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates to combat inflation, which could lead to a decrease in investor sentiment and a decline in the S&P 500. Strength: 6/10

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **Historical Volatility:** The S&P 500 has experienced significant volatility in the past, with rapid increases and declines. This could lead to a potential rebound in the index. Strength: 8/10
2. **Economic Fundamentals:** Despite the economic slowdown, the US economy is still growing, and the S&P 500 has historically been a leading indicator of the overall economy. Strength: 7/10
3. **Central Bank Support:** The Federal Reserve has been signaling that it will continue to support the economy, which could lead to a stabilization or increase in the S&P 500. Strength: 6/10
4. **Technical Analysis:** The S&P 500 has been trading in a range-bound pattern, and a break above the current level could lead to a significant increase in the index. Strength: 5/10

**Aggregated Considerations:**

Considering the historical trends, economic indicators, geopolitical uncertainty, and interest rates, there are more reasons to expect a decline in the S&P 500. However, the potential for a rebound due to historical volatility, economic fundamentals, central bank support, and technical analysis cannot be ignored.

**Initial Probability:** 40%

**Evaluation of Confidence:**

The initial probability of 40% seems relatively low, considering the potential for a rebound in the S&P 500. However, the historical trends and economic indicators suggest that the market is experiencing a correction, which could lead to a decline. The base rate of the event is not explicitly stated, but it is assumed to be around 50% (i.e., a 50% chance of the S&P 500 closing at or above 4552.7366).

**Final Prediction:** *0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Tai Tuivasa defeat Alexander Volkov in their upcoming fight scheduled for September 9th, 2023, at a UFC event in Sydney, Australia? This market will resolve to YES if Tai Tuivasa wins, and NO if Alexander Volkov wins or if the fight is a draw. If the fight is pulled from the event or declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Strength: 6/10
Alexander Volkov has a significant amount of experience in the heavyweight division and has fought against top-level opponents, which might give him an edge over Tai Tuivasa.
- Strength: 7/10
Tai Tuivasa has had inconsistent performances in the past, and his fighting style might not be well-suited to counter Volkov's powerful striking.
- Strength: 8/10
Volkov has a strong record in the UFC, with notable wins over top opponents, which could indicate his overall skill level and ability to perform under pressure.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Strength: 5/10
Tai Tuivasa has shown impressive knockout power in the past, which could give him an advantage in a fight against Volkov.
- Strength: 6/10
Tai Tuivasa has a strong home-field advantage, fighting in front of his native Australian crowd, which might boost his performance and motivation.
- Strength: 8/10
Tai Tuivasa has a relatively recent win over Sergey Spivak, which could indicate that he is in good form and ready to take on a top opponent like Volkov.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Taking into account the reasons for both a yes and no answer, it seems that the fight is relatively evenly matched, with both fighters having strengths and weaknesses. However, the reasons for a no answer seem slightly more compelling, as Volkov's experience and past performances against top opponents give him an edge.

5. Initial probability:
60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems relatively moderate and takes into account the balanced nature of the fight. However, it might be considered not confident enough, given the significant advantages that Volkov has. Considering the base rate of the event, it's essential to note that underdogs often perform well in fights, and Tuivasa has the potential to pull off an upset.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Bitcoin's price reach $40,000 or more before the end of November 2023, based on historical trends and current market conditions as of October 24, 2023, considering the stock price data available on Google Finance?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Economic uncertainty and recession fears might lead to a decrease in investor confidence, causing a decline in Bitcoin's price. (Strength: 4)
- Regulatory changes or increased scrutiny from governments could negatively impact Bitcoin's adoption and value. (Strength: 3)
- Bitcoin's price has been historically volatile, and it's possible that it could drop below $40,000 due to market fluctuations. (Strength: 4)
- The global economic situation, including inflation, interest rates, and currency fluctuations, might not favor Bitcoin's growth. (Strength: 3)
- Bitcoin's current price (as of October 24, 2023) is around $20,000, which is already close to the target, and it might not have enough room for growth. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Bitcoin has shown resilience and adaptability in the past, and it could continue to grow despite market fluctuations. (Strength: 4)
- The increasing adoption of cryptocurrencies and the growing interest in decentralized finance (DeFi) could lead to an increase in demand for Bitcoin. (Strength: 4)
- The limited supply of Bitcoin (21 million) could lead to increased demand and, subsequently, higher prices. (Strength: 5)
- The current market conditions, including low interest rates and inflation, might be favorable for Bitcoin's growth. (Strength: 3)
- Bitcoin's price has shown a history of rapid growth, and it's possible that it could reach $40,000 or more before the end of November. (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the factors pointing to a potential decline in Bitcoin's price (economic uncertainty, regulatory changes, market fluctuations, and global economic situation) are somewhat balanced by the factors pointing to a potential increase in price (resilience, adoption, limited supply, favorable market conditions, and historical growth). However, the reasons pointing to a potential decline seem to have a slight edge.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Bitcoin reaching $40,000 or more before the end of November 2023 at 40%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems to be somewhat cautious, given the potential for Bitcoin's price to increase due to its resilience and the growing interest in cryptocurrencies. However, considering the factors pointing to a potential decline, the initial probability might be slightly conservative.

7. Final prediction:
*0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a hostage deal be successfully brokered with Hamas for the release of one or more hostages held by the organization by 11:59 PM ET on November 1, 2023? The deal must be verifiable through credible reporting or the respective governments of the hostages and can be brokered by any entity. This includes but is not limited to, governments, international organizations, non-governmental organizations, or other entities. The hostages may be from any country. If such a deal is brokered before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. If no deal is brokered by November 1, 2023, the market will resolve to "No".

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Hamas's past history of hostage-taking and reluctance to negotiate (Strength: 4)
- The complexity and sensitivity of negotiations involving Hamas, a designated terrorist organization (Strength: 4)
- The ongoing conflict in the region and potential for continued violence (Strength: 3)
- The difficulty in verifying the release of hostages and ensuring their safety (Strength: 2)
- The potential for external factors, such as international politics or regional instability, to hinder negotiations (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The international community's efforts to broker a deal and secure the release of hostages (Strength: 4)
- The potential for a humanitarian crisis to prompt action from governments and organizations (Strength: 3)
- The possibility of a localized or regional agreement that could lead to the release of hostages (Strength: 2)
- The role of mediators or third-party organizations in facilitating negotiations (Strength: 3)
- The potential for a breakthrough in negotiations due to a change in Hamas's leadership or priorities (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" outcome, it seems that the factors pointing towards a successful deal are somewhat balanced by those indicating a lack of progress. However, the international community's efforts and the potential for a humanitarian crisis might push the negotiations forward. The complexity and sensitivity of the situation, as well as Hamas's past behavior, are significant obstacles.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would initially estimate the probability of a successful deal being brokered by November 1, 2023, to be around 40%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon reevaluation, I consider my initial probability to be somewhat too optimistic, given the complexity and history of the situation. The base rate of successful hostage deals with Hamas is low, and the various obstacles mentioned earlier suggest that a successful outcome is not guaranteed. I should have been less confident in my initial assessment.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Writers Guild of America (WGA) strike resolve before the end of 2023, considering the ongoing labor dispute centered around residuals from streaming media, the use of artificial intelligence (AI) tools like ChatGPT, and the historical context of the longest WGA strike lasting 154 days in 1988? Given the current strike began on May 2nd, 2023, and the longest strike would last at least 244 days if it extends into 2024, what are the chances of a resolution before December 31st, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* The WGA's demands for residuals from streaming media may be difficult to negotiate, given the AMPTP's (Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers) resistance to increasing payouts. (Strength: 4)
* The use of AI tools like ChatGPT could be a contentious issue, with the WGA seeking to limit its use in replacing human writers, which might not be feasible for the AMPTP. (Strength: 4)
* The strike has been ongoing for over 3 months, and the parties might need more time to reach a compromise. (Strength: 3)
* The AMPTP might not be willing to make significant concessions, given the financial implications of increased residuals and AI regulations. (Strength: 4)
* The WGA's unity and negotiation strategy might not be effective in achieving their goals. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* The WGA has been vocal about their demands and has maintained a united front, which could increase their bargaining power. (Strength: 4)
* The use of AI tools like ChatGPT is still a relatively new development, and the WGA might be able to negotiate regulations that benefit writers without completely halting its use. (Strength: 3)
* The AMPTP might be willing to make concessions to avoid a prolonged strike, which could have negative consequences for the entertainment industry. (Strength: 4)
* The WGA has a strong track record of negotiating successful contracts in the past, which could indicate their ability to reach a resolution. (Strength: 4)
* The strike has already gained significant public attention, which could put pressure on the AMPTP to negotiate a resolution. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the strike's resolution before the end of 2023 seems uncertain. The WGA's demands for residuals and AI regulations might be difficult to negotiate, but the union's unity and the AMPTP's potential willingness to make concessions could lead to a resolution. The strike's duration and the entertainment industry's reliance on writers make a resolution essential. I would rate the likelihood of a resolution before the end of 2023 as moderate.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 55 seems reasonable, given the mixed signals from the WGA and AMPTP. However, it might be slightly overconfident, as the strike's outcome depends on various factors, including the parties' negotiation strategies and the public's perception of the strike. The base rate of the event (i.e., the average length of strikes in the entertainment industry) is not explicitly mentioned, but it is essential to consider that the WGA's strike is ongoing, and its duration is already significant.

7. Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Israel Adesanya defeat Sean Strickland at the scheduled UFC 293 event in Sydney, Australia on September 9th, 2023? This market will resolve to YES if Israel Adesanya wins the fight, and to NO if Sean Strickland wins or if the fight is a draw. If the fight is pulled from the event or declared a No Contest on the night, the market will resolve to N/A. 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Sean Strickland has shown resilience in his past fights, with a strong chin and ability to withstand adversity. (Strength: 6/10)
- Strickland's unorthodox fighting style might give Adesanya trouble, as he is accustomed to facing more traditional strikers. (Strength: 5/10)
- Adesanya has had some close calls in the past, particularly against Robert Whittaker, which might indicate vulnerability. (Strength: 7/10)
- Strickland's experience in the Octagon, with 24 fights, might give him an edge over Adesanya's 24 fights. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Israel Adesanya is a well-rounded fighter with a strong record, including victories over top contenders in the middleweight division. (Strength: 9/10)
- Adesanya's striking skills, including his kicking game, are highly regarded in the MMA community. (Strength: 8.5/10)
- Adesanya's experience in the Octagon, with a strong record in the UFC, might give him an edge over Strickland. (Strength: 8/10)
- Adesanya's ability to adapt to different fighting styles and opponents could help him overcome Strickland's unorthodox approach. (Strength: 7.5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations: 
The aggregated considerations weigh heavily in favor of Israel Adesanya's victory, with a strong record, well-rounded skills, and experience in the Octagon. While Sean Strickland's resilience and unorthodox style might pose some challenges, they do not seem to outweigh Adesanya's advantages. The close calls in Adesanya's past and Strickland's experience are notable concerns, but do not significantly alter the overall assessment.

5. Initial probability: 
Given the considerations above, the initial probability of Israel Adesanya beating Sean Strickland at UFC 293 is 85.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 85 seems relatively high, considering the potential challenges posed by Strickland's unorthodox style and Adesanya's close calls in the past. However, Adesanya's overall skills and experience make him a strong favorite in this fight. The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of Adesanya winning) is also not particularly low, given his strong record and reputation in the MMA world.

7. Final prediction:
*0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Bitcoin's price reach or surpass $30,000 at least once in a 30-minute Coingecko candle during the month of September 2023 in the Eastern Time (ET) timezone? The question will be resolved if at least one 30-minute candle closes with a high of $30,000 or more within the specified timeframe.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, with 1 being the weakest and 5 being the strongest):
   - Historical price fluctuations: Historically, Bitcoin's price has been highly volatile, with significant price drops and increases. This volatility might lead to a price drop below $30,000, making it unlikely to reach the target price. (Strength: 4)
   - Market sentiment and overall economic conditions: The global economy and market sentiment can significantly impact Bitcoin's price. If the overall economic conditions are unfavorable or there's a negative market sentiment, it's less likely that Bitcoin will reach $30,000. (Strength: 4)
   - Regulatory changes and government policies: Governments and regulatory bodies have been increasingly scrutinizing cryptocurrencies, which can lead to price fluctuations. If there are any significant regulatory changes or announcements that negatively impact the market, it might prevent Bitcoin from reaching $30,000. (Strength: 3)
   - Competition from other cryptocurrencies: The cryptocurrency market is highly competitive, with many other cryptocurrencies vying for attention and investment. If other cryptocurrencies gain significant traction or investors shift their focus away from Bitcoin, it might not reach $30,000. (Strength: 2)
   - Seasonal trends and historical patterns: Analyzing historical data might show that Bitcoin's price tends to follow certain seasonal patterns or trends. If there's a pattern indicating a price drop or stagnation in September, it could contribute to the answer being no. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, with 1 being the weakest and 5 being the strongest):
   - Increasing adoption and investment: As more people and institutions invest in Bitcoin, its price might increase, potentially reaching $30,000. (Strength: 4)
   - Limited supply and growing demand: Bitcoin's supply is capped, and growing demand could drive the price up. If the demand for Bitcoin continues to increase, it might reach $30,000. (Strength: 5)
   - Positive market sentiment and overall economic conditions: A favorable market sentiment and economic conditions could drive the price of Bitcoin up. If the overall market is optimistic, it's more likely that Bitcoin will reach $30,000. (Strength: 4)
   - Potential for a price rebound: If Bitcoin's price has been dropping or stagnant, there's a possibility of a rebound, which could drive the price up to $30,000. (Strength: 3)
   - Speculation and hype: The cryptocurrency market is often driven by speculation and hype. If there's significant hype or speculation surrounding Bitcoin, it might drive the price up to $30,000. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the main factors influencing the outcome are the historical price fluctuations, market sentiment and overall economic conditions, limited supply and growing demand, and potential for a price rebound. The strength of these factors is relatively balanced, with limited supply and growing demand being the strongest reason for a positive outcome.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be around 40%.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
The initial probability of 40% seems relatively moderate, considering the balanced strengths of the factors influencing the outcome. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is relatively low, given the historical volatility of Bitcoin's price. Additionally, it's essential to be aware of any potential biases in the analysis, such as overemphasizing recent trends or underestimating the impact of external factors.

7. Final prediction:
*0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will a Democrat win the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election scheduled for November 7, 2023, as the final state election authority certification or other official determination of the election results confirms the winner? A candidate will be considered a Democrat if they are the nominee or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of the Democratic Party. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the winner of the election represents the Democratic Party and "No" otherwise.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The Republican Party has historically performed well in Kentucky gubernatorial elections, with a strong track record of winning the state's gubernatorial seat. (Strength: 4)
- The state's voting trends and demographics might favor Republican candidates, given the state's conservative leanings. (Strength: 3)
- The Democratic candidate might face challenges in mobilizing support among rural voters, a crucial demographic in Kentucky. (Strength: 2)
- The Republican candidate might have a strong campaign and a well-established base, making it difficult for the Democrat to gain traction. (Strength: 4)
- The state's electoral history and current trends might not favor a Democratic victory. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The Democratic Party has made significant strides in recent years in Kentucky, with some victories in state and local elections. (Strength: 3)
- The Democratic candidate might have a strong campaign, a well-organized team, and a compelling message that resonates with voters. (Strength: 4)
- The state's demographics, including growing urban areas and a younger population, might favor a Democratic candidate. (Strength: 3)
- The Republican Party might be facing internal divisions or challenges that could affect their chances in the election. (Strength: 2)
- The Democratic candidate might have a strong fundraising effort and be able to outspend their Republican opponent. (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the historical performance of the Republican Party in Kentucky, the state's conservative leanings, and the challenges the Democratic candidate might face in mobilizing rural voters, the initial inclination is that the answer might be no. However, the Democratic Party's recent progress, a strong Democratic candidate, and the state's demographic changes suggest that the outcome is not a foregone conclusion. The Republican Party's potential internal divisions and the Democratic candidate's fundraising efforts also play a role in the equation.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, the initial probability is 30. This is a relatively low probability, reflecting the historical trends and the challenges the Democratic candidate might face.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:

The calculated probability might be too low, given the Democratic Party's recent progress and the state's demographic changes. Additionally, the base rate of Democratic gubernatorial wins in Kentucky is not excessively low, suggesting that a Democratic victory is not a highly improbable event.

7. Final prediction:

*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a second Barbie movie, which could be a sequel, prequel, or a different installment in the Barbie franchise, be officially announced or green-lit by a major film production company or studio by the end of 2023? This announcement could be made by Warner Bros. Pictures, Mattel, or any other production company involved in the production of the first Barbie film, which is scheduled to be released in 2023. The announcement could be made through various channels, including press releases, social media, or official statements from the production companies.

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. **Uncertainty around the first film's performance**: The first Barbie film is scheduled to be released in 2023, and its box office performance may not be certain. If the film underperforms, it may not be a priority to announce a sequel. (Strength: 4)
2. **Production company priorities**: The production companies involved in the first film may have other projects that take priority over a potential sequel. (Strength: 3)
3. **Script development and casting**: Developing a script and casting for a sequel can be a time-consuming process, and it's possible that the production companies may not have a clear plan for a sequel by the end of 2023. (Strength: 4)
4. **Franchise strategy**: The production companies may not have a clear strategy for the Barbie franchise, and may not want to announce a sequel until they have a better understanding of the franchise's direction. (Strength: 3)
5. **Industry trends**: The film industry is constantly changing, and trends may shift over the course of the year, potentially affecting the decision to announce a sequel. (Strength: 2)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. **Marketing strategy**: Announcing a sequel can be a marketing strategy to generate buzz and excitement for the first film. (Strength: 5)
2. **Franchise potential**: The Barbie franchise has significant potential for sequels and spin-offs, and announcing a sequel can be a way to capitalize on this potential. (Strength: 5)
3. **Studio commitments**: The production companies involved in the first film may have already committed to a sequel, and announcing it by the end of 2023 would be a way to fulfill those commitments. (Strength: 4)
4. **Fan demand**: Fans of the first film may be eager for a sequel, and announcing one by the end of 2023 could be a way to satisfy that demand. (Strength: 3)
5. **Industry trends**: The film industry often prioritizes franchise filmmaking, and announcing a sequel can be a way to fit into this trend. (Strength: 4)

Aggregated considerations:
The reasons why the answer might be no are relatively strong, with a total strength of 19. The reasons why the answer might be yes are also relatively strong, with a total strength of 21. However, the strength of the reasons why the answer might be yes is slightly higher, suggesting that a sequel announcement is more likely.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation:
The initial probability of 60 may be too low, considering the strength of the reasons why the answer might be yes. However, it's also possible that the production companies may not have a clear plan for a sequel by the end of 2023, which would support a lower probability. Considering the base rate of sequel announcements in the film industry, it's not uncommon for sequels to be announced within a year of the first film's release.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will a new F-Zero game, published and/or developed by Nintendo, with the title "F-Zero" in it, be released before January 1st, 2030, in any timezone, as a completely new game (not a port, remake, or remaster)? This question will resolve to YES if such a game is released before the specified date, and NO otherwise.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

* **Reason 1: Lack of official announcements (Strength: 8/10)**: There has been a significant gap of nearly 20 years since the release of the last mainline F-Zero game, and there have been no official announcements from Nintendo regarding a new F-Zero game. This lack of communication suggests that Nintendo might not be prioritizing the series.
* **Reason 2: Shift in Nintendo's focus (Strength: 6/10)**: Nintendo has shifted its focus towards other popular franchises like Mario, Zelda, and Pokémon, and it's unclear if they have the resources or interest to invest in a new F-Zero game.
* **Reason 3: Changing gaming landscape (Strength: 4/10)**: The gaming industry has evolved significantly since the release of the last F-Zero game, and Nintendo might be hesitant to invest in a new game that may not appeal to modern gamers.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

* **Reason 1: Nintendo's history of reviving classic franchises (Strength: 9/10)**: Nintendo has a history of reviving classic franchises, such as the Metroid and Kid Icarus series, and has shown a willingness to revisit old IPs. This suggests that they might consider reviving F-Zero as well.
* **Reason 2: Fan demand and nostalgia (Strength: 7/10)**: F-Zero has a dedicated fan base, and the series has maintained a cult following over the years. A new game could tap into this nostalgia and appeal to both old and new fans.
* **Reason 3: Nintendo's commitment to innovation (Strength: 6/10)**: Nintendo is known for pushing the boundaries of gaming innovation, and a new F-Zero game could potentially offer a fresh and exciting experience that showcases their innovative spirit.

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, I weigh the strengths of each argument. The lack of official announcements and Nintendo's shifting focus are significant concerns, but the company's history of reviving classic franchises and commitment to innovation provide a counterbalance. Fan demand and nostalgia also play a role, but their impact is less clear. Overall, I assess the situation as a toss-up, with a slight leaning towards a yes.

5. Initial probability:

Based on my aggregated considerations, I assign an initial probability of 55 to the answer being yes.

6. Evaluation of confidence and base rate:

My initial probability seems reasonably cautious, given the lack of clear indicators from Nintendo. However, I might be underestimating the potential for a surprise announcement or a change in Nintendo's priorities. The base rate of new game releases from Nintendo is relatively high, as they regularly release new games across various franchises. This should be taken into account when evaluating the probability.

7. Final prediction:

Considering my initial probability and the base rate of new game releases from Nintendo, I adjust my final prediction to *0.65*. This reflects a moderate confidence in the possibility of a new F-Zero game being released before 2030.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will President Biden travel to Israel in October 2023, based on reliable media sources and/or official White House reports? This market resolves YES if President Biden is in Israel (or Israeli Occupied Territories) at any point between the launch of this market and 11:59 pm (23:59) local Israeli time (IST) on October 31st, 2023. A Biden visit to an Israeli embassy or consulate will NOT cause the market to resolve YES. Reliable media sources for this market include BBC News, NYTimes, CNN, Fox News, AP, Reuters, Haaretz, Times of Israel, and WSJ.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- **Reason 1: Unannounced visits are rare**: Historically, presidential visits to foreign countries are often well-planned and publicly announced. The lack of an official announcement might suggest that a visit is unlikely. (Strength: 4)
- **Reason 2: Busy schedule**: President Biden has a packed schedule, and a trip to Israel might be difficult to fit in. (Strength: 3)
- **Reason 3: Middle East tensions**: The Middle East is a complex and volatile region, and a presidential visit might be seen as a distraction or a provocation. (Strength: 2)
- **Reason 4: Domestic priorities**: The Biden administration might prioritize domestic issues over international travel. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- **Reason 1: Diplomatic efforts**: The Biden administration has been actively engaging in diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, and a visit to Israel might be part of these efforts. (Strength: 4)
- **Reason 2: Israeli-American relations**: The US and Israel have a strong alliance, and a presidential visit could be an opportunity to strengthen ties. (Strength: 4)
- **Reason 3: Public announcement**: If a visit is planned, the White House would likely announce it, which would increase the likelihood of the market resolving YES. (Strength: 5)
- **Reason 4: Security cooperation**: The US and Israel cooperate on security issues, and a visit could be related to these efforts. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I weigh the likelihood of a presidential visit to Israel in October 2023. While there are valid reasons to doubt the visit (busy schedule, Middle East tensions, and domestic priorities), the diplomatic efforts and strong alliance between the US and Israel make a visit more plausible. The lack of an official announcement is a significant factor, but it's not a decisive one, as unannounced visits can happen.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
My initial probability of 40 might be too low, given the strong alliance between the US and Israel and the ongoing diplomatic efforts in the region. I might have overemphasized the potential risks and uncertainties. Considering the base rate of presidential visits to foreign countries, which is relatively high, I might have been too cautious.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the national champion of the 2023 National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Football (NCAAF) finish with a perfect 15-0 record in the 2023-2024 season, culminating in the national championship game on Monday, January 8, 2024, at 6:30 PM Central Standard Time (CST)? 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- Injuries to key players: A team's chances of going undefeated are significantly reduced if they suffer injuries to their star players, particularly those in critical positions such as quarterback, running back, or defensive linemen (Strength: 4).
- Tough opponents: The NCAAF season features many strong teams, and even a single loss to a top-ranked opponent can prevent a team from finishing undefeated (Strength: 4).
- Upsets in conference championships: Teams that lose in their conference championships often have a chance to still finish with a strong record, but it might not be perfect (Strength: 3).
- Overreliance on a single player: If a team heavily relies on a single player, such as a quarterback or running back, and that player gets injured or experiences a slump, it could impact the team's chances of finishing undefeated (Strength: 3).
- Coaching decisions: Poor coaching decisions, such as conservative play-calling or mismanaging timeouts, can also contribute to a loss and prevent a team from finishing undefeated (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- Strong team depth: Teams with a deep roster and multiple players who can contribute to the team's success are more likely to withstand injuries and maintain their undefeated record (Strength: 5).
- Experienced coaching: Coaches with a proven track record of success and the ability to make sound strategic decisions are more likely to guide their teams to a perfect season (Strength: 5).
- Balanced offense and defense: Teams with a balanced offense and defense are less likely to have a single loss due to their ability to adapt to different opponents (Strength: 4).
- Strong team culture: Teams with a strong team culture and a cohesive unit are more likely to perform well and maintain their undefeated record (Strength: 3).
- Scheduling: A favorable schedule can help a team avoid tough opponents and maintain their undefeated record (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I believe that the chances of a team finishing with a 15-0 record are relatively low. While there are several reasons why a team might achieve this feat, there are also many potential pitfalls that could prevent it. However, I do think that a strong team with a deep roster, experienced coaching, and a balanced offense and defense has a good chance of finishing undefeated.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of a team finishing with a 15-0 record at 20%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon further consideration, I realize that the base rate of a team finishing with a 15-0 record is extremely low, as it has only happened a few times in NCAAF history. This suggests that my initial probability might be too high. Additionally, there are many variables that could affect a team's chances of finishing undefeated, and it's difficult to accurately predict which teams will be able to achieve this feat.

7. Final prediction:
*0.05*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.05
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Cleveland Browns beat the San Francisco 49ers in their NFL Week 6 game, scheduled to take place at Cleveland Browns Stadium on October 15, 2023, at 10:00 PDT?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The Cleveland Browns have struggled with consistency in recent years and have a history of underperforming in high-pressure games. (Strength: 3)
- The San Francisco 49ers have a strong defense and a solid team overall, which could pose a challenge for the Browns. (Strength: 4)
- The Browns might struggle with injuries or player absences, which could impact their performance. (Strength: 2)
- The 49ers have a strong home-field advantage, which could give them an edge in a close game. (Strength: 3)
- The Browns have not shown significant improvement in their passing game this season. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The Browns have made significant improvements to their team in the offseason and have a strong offense. (Strength: 4)
- The Browns have a home-field advantage, which could give them an edge in a close game. (Strength: 3)
- The 49ers have been inconsistent in their performance this season, which could make them vulnerable. (Strength: 4)
- The Browns have a strong running game, which could help them control the tempo of the game. (Strength: 3)
- The Browns have a solid coaching staff that could make adjustments to exploit the 49ers' weaknesses. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, I believe that the game will be closely contested. The Browns have made significant improvements, but the 49ers have a strong defense and a solid team overall. The home-field advantage could also play a role in the game. However, the Browns' strong running game and solid coaching staff could give them an edge.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of the Browns beating the 49ers at 55%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
My initial probability might be slightly too confident, as there are many factors that could influence the outcome of the game. However, considering the Browns' recent performance and the 49ers' inconsistency, I believe that my initial probability is reasonable.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Washington Commanders win the NFL game against the Chicago Bears at FedExField on October 5, 2023, at 17:15 PDT? This prediction does not consider any potential tie or inconclusive outcome, as the question will resolve to 'NO' in such cases. 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* The Chicago Bears have a strong defense that might limit the Commanders' scoring opportunities (Strength: 4)
* The Commanders have struggled with consistency and may not be able to maintain a strong performance throughout the game (Strength: 3)
* The Bears' offense, led by quarterback Justin Fields, might be able to capitalize on the Commanders' defensive weaknesses (Strength: 3)
* The Commanders are dealing with injuries or other internal issues that could impact their performance (Strength: 2, unknown at this time)
* The Bears are playing at FedExField, which might give them an advantage in terms of crowd noise and home-field advantage (Strength: 1)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* The Commanders have a strong offense led by quarterback Sam Howell, which could outscore the Bears (Strength: 4)
* The Bears' defense has struggled against the run, and the Commanders have a solid running game (Strength: 3)
* The Commanders have a more experienced coaching staff and might be able to make strategic decisions to outmaneuver the Bears (Strength: 2)
* The Bears are still adjusting to their new coaching staff and system, which could lead to some growing pains (Strength: 2)
* The Commanders have a strong home-field advantage at FedExField, which could give them an edge (Strength: 1)

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, it seems that the game will be closely contested. However, the Commanders' offense and home-field advantage might give them a slight edge. The Bears' defense and Justin Fields' potential to capitalize on the Commanders' weaknesses could make it a competitive game.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of initial probability: The initial probability of 55 seems reasonable, as it reflects the uncertainty and competitiveness of the game. However, it might be too low, given the Commanders' home-field advantage and strong offense. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of the Commanders winning any given game) is not explicitly considered in the initial probability.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Judge Tanya Chutkan recuse herself from the January 6 case involving Donald Trump, as confirmed by an official statement or report, by January 1, 2024?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reason 1: Judge Tanya Chutkan might not see a clear conflict of interest in the case, which would prevent her from needing to recuse herself. (Strength: 4/10)
- Reason 2: The judge might be committed to presiding over the case and feel a sense of responsibility to see it through to its conclusion, rather than stepping aside. (Strength: 3/10)
- Reason 3: There might not be any public statements or reports indicating that Judge Chutkan plans to recuse herself, which could suggest that she intends to remain on the case. (Strength: 6/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Reason 1: Judge Tanya Chutkan might have a personal or professional conflict of interest in the case that would necessitate her recusal. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: The judge might have previously expressed concerns or reservations about presiding over the case, which could lead to her recusal. (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 3: There could be a public statement or report from a credible source indicating that Judge Chutkan plans to recuse herself from the case. (Strength: 9/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the most significant factor is the potential for a public statement or report confirming Judge Chutkan's recusal (Reason 3 in both lists). This is the most impactful reason, with a strength rating of 9/10. The other reasons, while possible, have lower strength ratings and are less likely to influence the outcome.

5. Initial probability: 60
Based on the aggregated considerations, I believe there is a 60% chance that Judge Tanya Chutkan will recuse herself from the January 6 case involving Donald Trump, as confirmed by an official statement or report, by January 1, 2024.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, given the uncertainty surrounding the situation. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the potential impact of a public statement or report confirming Judge Chutkan's recusal. The base rate of recusal in similar cases is also not explicitly considered in this forecast.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
After reevaluating the initial probability, I believe a more accurate prediction would be 65%. This takes into account the potential for a public statement or report confirming Judge Chutkan's recusal, while also acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding the situation.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Apple stock (AAPL) reach or exceed a price of $200 by the end of October 31, 2023, during any regular Nasdaq trading session (09:30-16:00 ET)? This question is based on the publicly-quoted intraday high price, adjusted for any future stock splits. The reference price for this market will be the post-split price corresponding to the current $200, which would be $100 in the case of a 2:1 split. However, for the sake of this question, we will consider the original $200 as the reference point, and adjust for splits if they occur.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strongest to weakest):
- **Reason 1: Historical volatility and market conditions (Strength: 8/10)**: Apple's stock price has experienced fluctuations in the past, and the current market conditions, including interest rates, global economic trends, and competition, might not favor a significant price increase.
- **Reason 2: Technical analysis and resistance levels (Strength: 6/10)**: Apple's stock price has faced resistance at certain levels in the past, and a significant price increase might be hindered by these technical barriers.
- **Reason 3: Company-specific factors (Strength: 4/10)**: Apple's financial performance, product releases, and management decisions might not align with a significant price increase.
- **Reason 4: External factors (Strength: 3/10)**: External factors such as global events, economic downturns, or regulatory changes might negatively impact Apple's stock price.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strongest to weakest):
- **Reason 1: Fundamental analysis and growth prospects (Strength: 9/10)**: Apple's strong financial performance, innovative products, and growing services segment might lead to a significant price increase.
- **Reason 2: Market trends and momentum (Strength: 8/10)**: The tech industry's growth and Apple's market dominance might drive the stock price upward.
- **Reason 3: Investor sentiment and expectations (Strength: 6/10)**: Positive investor sentiment and high expectations for Apple's future performance might contribute to a price increase.
- **Reason 4: Speculation and market speculation (Strength: 4/10)**: Market speculation and hype might drive the stock price upward, even if it's not based on fundamental analysis.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the balance of evidence slightly favors a positive outcome. However, the strength of the reasons varies, and external factors might influence the outcome.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Apple's stock reaching or exceeding $200 by the end of October 31, 2023, as 55.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 55 might be considered not confident enough, given the strong reasons why the answer might be yes. However, the reasons why the answer might be no also have some merit, and the base rate of the event is unknown. To balance this, I will consider the base rate of significant stock price increases in the tech industry, which is relatively high. This might suggest that the initial probability should be adjusted upward.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the game against the Tennessee Titans at Acrisure Stadium on November 2, 2023, at 17:15 PDT, given the current date is September 11, 2023? The resolution criteria for this question are not applicable or available. In the event of a tie, the answer will be NO, and if the game does not have a winner, the answer will be N/A. I will use my best judgment for any uncontemplated edge cases.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have struggled with consistency and injuries throughout their recent seasons (Strength: 3)
- The Tennessee Titans have a strong offense led by Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill (Strength: 4)
- The Steelers' defense has been vulnerable to passing attacks (Strength: 3)
- The Titans have a home-field advantage, but the game is taking place at Acrisure Stadium, which is the Steelers' home stadium (Strength: 2)
- The Steelers have a tough schedule leading up to the game, which might affect their team's morale and performance (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The Steelers have a strong defense led by T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick (Strength: 4)
- The Steelers have a balanced offense with a solid running game and a capable quarterback in Kenny Pickett (Strength: 3)
- The Titans have struggled with injuries to key players in the past, which might affect their performance in this game (Strength: 3)
- The Steelers have a strong home-field advantage at Acrisure Stadium (Strength: 4)
- The Steelers have a good track record against the Titans in recent years (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations: 
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Steelers' defense and home-field advantage are significant advantages. However, the Titans' strong offense and potential injuries to Steelers players might affect the outcome. The Steelers' recent struggles with consistency and injuries to key players are also a concern. Overall, it's a closely matched game, but the Steelers' strengths might give them an edge.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 55% seems reasonable, considering the balanced strengths and weaknesses of both teams. However, it might be slightly too confident, given the unpredictability of NFL games. The base rate of the Steelers winning this game is not available, but we can consider the average win-loss record of the Steelers and Titans in recent years. The Steelers have a slightly better record, which might influence the outcome.

7. Final prediction: *0.5*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.5
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on Tuesday, 3rd October, than it did on Monday, 2nd October, at the end of the market trading session (16:30 UK time), considering the possibility of slight delays or discrepancies in real-time data from unofficial sources such as Google, and the fact that the official source of truth (the official FTSE 100 page) is delayed by around 15 minutes?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- **Reason 1: Global economic downturn**: There might be a global economic downturn or a significant market correction, leading to a decline in the FTSE 100. (Strength: 60%)
- **Reason 2: Market volatility**: The FTSE 100 is known for its volatility, and market fluctuations can be unpredictable. A sudden downturn in the market could result in a lower close on 3rd October. (Strength: 70%)
- **Reason 3: Unforeseen events**: Unforeseen events such as a major company announcement, a global crisis, or a surprise interest rate change could negatively impact the market. (Strength: 40%)
- **Reason 4: Delays or discrepancies in data**: The unofficial sources used to track the FTSE 100 might be delayed or provide incorrect data, which could lead to a lower close on 3rd October. (Strength: 30%)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- **Reason 1: Market trends**: The FTSE 100 has been trending upward in the past, and there is no clear indication of a significant downturn. (Strength: 50%)
- **Reason 2: Economic indicators**: The UK economy has shown signs of growth, and the FTSE 100 has historically responded positively to economic growth. (Strength: 40%)
- **Reason 3: Investor confidence**: Investor confidence in the UK market has been relatively high, which could lead to a higher close on 3rd October. (Strength: 30%)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The aggregated considerations are as follows: 
Reasons for no: 60% (60 + 70 + 40 + 30) / 4 = 50%
Reasons for yes: 40% (50 + 40 + 30) / 3 = 46.67%

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, the initial probability is 46.67%, which translates to 46.67.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively low, considering the uncertainty and unpredictability of the market. It might be worth considering the base rate of the event, which is that the FTSE 100 will close higher or lower on a given day. The base rate is around 50%. However, given the specific context of this question, it's difficult to assign a precise base rate.

7. Final prediction:
*0.4667*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4667
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the 2023 film 'Barbie' gross over $150 million at the domestic box office on its opening weekend, spanning from July 21 to July 23? This question will be resolved based on the actual domestic weekend box office data available on the 'Domestic Weekend' tab of XXXX by July 24, 2023. If final data is not available by July 31, 2023, at 11:59:59 PM ET, another credible source will be used for resolution. The question focuses on the domestic box office performance of 'Barbie' during its initial three-day opening weekend.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1 to 10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- The film's marketing campaign might not be strong enough to generate significant buzz and attract a large audience, leading to lower box office earnings (Strength: 4).
- Competition from other summer releases and established franchises could draw viewers away from 'Barbie', impacting its box office performance (Strength: 6).
- The film's tone and themes might not resonate with a broad audience, potentially limiting its appeal and earnings (Strength: 5).
- Historical data on opening weekends for other films in the same genre or with similar marketing budgets might suggest a lower earnings potential for 'Barbie' (Strength: 7).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1 to 10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- 'Barbie' has a well-established brand with a dedicated fan base, which could translate to strong opening weekend earnings (Strength: 9).
- The film features a star-studded cast, including Margot Robbie, Ryan Gosling, and Will Ferrell, which can attract a broad audience (Strength: 8).
- The film's marketing campaign has been extensive, with a strong social media presence and promotional tie-ins, potentially generating significant interest and excitement (Strength: 8).
- The film's release during the summer season, a peak time for blockbuster movies, could lead to higher earnings due to the typical increase in moviegoers during this period (Strength: 6).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the main factors influencing the outcome are the film's marketing campaign, competition, and its ability to resonate with a broad audience. The presence of a strong brand, a star-studded cast, and a well-executed marketing campaign are likely to contribute to higher earnings, while competition and potential audience disconnect might hinder its performance. Given these factors, a balanced view suggests that the film has a good chance of exceeding $150 million in its opening weekend.

5. Initial probability: 65

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems to be on the higher side, given that there are potential challenges, such as competition and audience resonance, that could impact the film's earnings. However, the film's strong brand, cast, and marketing campaign provide a solid foundation for a successful opening weekend. Considering the base rate of films exceeding $150 million in their opening weekend, which is relatively high, the initial probability might be adjusted to account for this.

7. Final prediction: *0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
What is the likelihood that the Liberal Democrat candidate will win the upcoming by-election in the Mid-Bedfordshire constituency, which is being held due to Nadine Dorries's sudden resignation as the MP for the area?

Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strongest to weakest):
1. **Strong**: The Conservative Party has traditionally held this seat, and Nadine Dorries has been the MP for the area since 2005. The party may still have a strong local presence and voter loyalty. (Strength: 60%)
2. The Liberal Democrats have historically struggled to gain traction in this constituency, and it's uncertain whether they can mobilize enough support to win. (Strength: 30%)
3. The by-election is being held in a relatively short timeframe, which might not give the Liberal Democrats sufficient time to campaign and build momentum. (Strength: 10%)
4. The local political landscape may be influenced by national trends, and if the Conservative Party is perceived as being in a strong position, it could affect the outcome. (Strength: 5%)
5. The Liberal Democrats might not have a strong local candidate or campaign, which could impact their chances of winning. (Strength: 5%)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strongest to weakest):
1. **Strong**: The Labour Party candidate winning the seat is more likely, as indicated in another question (Strength: 60%)
2. The Liberal Democrats have been gaining popularity in recent years, and if they can capitalize on this trend, they might perform better than expected. (Strength: 20%)
3. A by-election can sometimes lead to a higher turnout and increased voter engagement, which could benefit the Liberal Democrats. (Strength: 10%)
4. Local factors, such as specific issues or candidate personalities, might not be in favor of the Conservative Party, potentially giving the Liberal Democrats an opportunity. (Strength: 5%)
5. The Liberal Democrats might be able to attract disaffected Conservative voters or those dissatisfied with the current political landscape, which could help their chances. (Strength: 5%)

Aggregated considerations:
Given the reasons above, the likelihood of the Liberal Democrat candidate winning the seat seems low. While there are some potential factors that could work in their favor, the Conservative Party's historical presence and the Labour Party's stronger likelihood of winning (according to another question) make it less likely for the Liberal Democrats to succeed.

Initial probability: 15%

Evaluation:
Considering the base rate of by-election outcomes, which often favor the incumbent party or the party in power, the calculated probability might be too low. However, given the specific circumstances of this by-election, including Nadine Dorries's sudden resignation and the Liberal Democrats' historical struggles in the constituency, the probability seems reasonable.

Final prediction: *0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will the Seattle Seahawks win their Week 8 NFL game against the Cleveland Browns, which is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2023, at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington, at 13:05 PDT?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

   a. The Cleveland Browns have a strong offense, which could potentially outscore the Seattle Seahawks, leading to a Browns victory. (Strength: 6/10)
   b. The Browns have a history of surprising teams, and this could be a game where they pull off an upset. (Strength: 4/10)
   c. The Seahawks might be struggling with injuries or other internal issues that could impact their performance. (Strength: 7/10)
   d. The Browns have a strong home record, and playing on the road in Seattle might be challenging for them. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

   a. The Seahawks have a strong home-field advantage at Lumen Field, which could give them an edge in the game. (Strength: 8/10)
   b. The Seahawks have a solid defense that could contain the Browns' offense and limit their scoring opportunities. (Strength: 7/10)
   c. The Seahawks' quarterback, Geno Smith, has been playing well this season and could lead his team to a victory. (Strength: 6/10)
   d. The Browns have struggled with consistency this season, which could lead to a Seahawks victory. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations: The Seahawks have a strong home-field advantage, a solid defense, and a decent offense led by Geno Smith. However, the Browns have a strong offense and a history of surprising teams. The Seahawks' potential injuries or internal issues could also impact their performance.

5. Initial probability: 55%

6. Evaluation: The initial probability of 55% seems reasonable, but it might be too confident given the unpredictability of NFL games. The Browns have shown the ability to surprise teams, and the Seahawks' potential injuries or internal issues could significantly impact the game's outcome. Considering the base rate of NFL games (i.e., the likelihood of any given game being a close or competitive game), it's possible that the actual probability is lower than 55%. However, without more information, it's difficult to adjust the probability significantly.

7. Final prediction: *0.475*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.475
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Israeli soldiers perform a significant ground invasion in south Gaza (south of Deir al-Balah) before December 5, 2024, given the current situation where the focus of the IDF ground operation is in north Gaza, and citizens are requested to move to the south? The question will be resolved as 'Yes' if a military force of more than 200 soldiers enters south Gaza.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strongest to weakest):

- **Strongest (8/10):** The IDF has primarily focused on the north Gaza operation, and a significant ground invasion in the south might not be a priority at this stage, given the current military objectives and strategies. (Reason: IDF's current focus and military strategy)
- **Moderate (6/10):** The Israeli government and military might be cautious about escalating the conflict in south Gaza, considering the potential consequences and international reactions. (Reason: Israeli government and military caution)
- **Weaker (4/10):** The Hamas militant group in south Gaza might not be as strong or well-entrenched as in the north, making a ground invasion less necessary or desirable. (Reason: Hamas strength in south Gaza)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strongest to weakest):

- **Strongest (9/10):** The citizens' evacuation from south Gaza to the north might be a tactical move by the Israeli military to concentrate their forces and prepare for a potential ground invasion in the south, given the increased military presence in the area. (Reason: Israeli military tactics and strategy)
- **Moderate (7/10):** The Israeli military might be preparing for a wider operation in Gaza, and a ground invasion in the south could be part of this strategy, especially if the current operation in the north is not yielding the desired results. (Reason: Israeli military strategy and operation scope)
- **Weaker (3/10):** The Israeli government and military might be seeking to demonstrate their military capabilities and presence in south Gaza, potentially leading to a ground invasion as a show of force. (Reason: Israeli military show of force)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the balance of evidence suggests that the answer is more likely to be 'no' due to the IDF's current focus on the north and the potential consequences of escalating the conflict in south Gaza. However, the possibility of a ground invasion cannot be ruled out entirely, especially if the Israeli military is preparing for a wider operation or seeks to demonstrate its capabilities.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of a ground invasion in south Gaza before December 5, 2024, to be around 20.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability might be considered not confident enough, given the potential for significant military operations and the complexity of the situation. The base rate of ground invasions in Gaza is relatively low, but the current context and the reasons provided suggest that the answer is more likely to be 'no'. However, the possibility of a ground invasion cannot be entirely ruled out.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Worldcoin have scanned 3 million irises by the end of August 2023, as shown by the number of unique humans on Worldcoin/World ID sign-ups at XXXX? This question requires assessing the progress of Worldcoin's iris scanning efforts within a specific timeframe. To better answer this, I'll need to consider the rate at which Worldcoin has been adding unique users, the efficiency of their iris scanning process, and any potential challenges or obstacles that might hinder their progress.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- **Reason 1:** Worldcoin might face technical difficulties or bugs in their iris scanning software, slowing down the scanning process (Strength: 6/10).
- **Reason 2:** The number of unique users signing up for Worldcoin might not be increasing at a rate that would allow them to reach 3 million scanned irises by the end of August (Strength: 7/10).
- **Reason 3:** Worldcoin might not have sufficient resources (e.g., funding, personnel) to maintain a high scanning rate (Strength: 5/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- **Reason 1:** Worldcoin has been actively promoting their service, which could lead to a significant increase in sign-ups and, consequently, iris scans (Strength: 8/10).
- **Reason 2:** The technology behind Worldcoin's iris scanning is likely efficient, allowing them to scan a large number of irises within a short period (Strength: 9/10).
- **Reason 3:** The Worldcoin team might have a well-planned strategy to reach their goal, with a clear timeline and sufficient resources (Strength: 8/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the provided information and my analysis, it seems that the reasons for a "yes" answer are stronger than those for a "no" answer. The technology and promotion efforts are likely to contribute to a high scanning rate, but potential technical difficulties and resource constraints might slow down the process.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of Worldcoin scanning 3 million irises by the end of August 2023 to be around 80.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability might be excessively confident, as I have not considered the base rate of the event (i.e., how common it is for organizations to achieve such a goal). I also didn't take into account any potential external factors that could impact Worldcoin's progress, such as changes in government regulations or global events.

7. Final prediction:
*0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the U.S. successfully rescue at least one American hostage currently held by Hamas by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, through a rescue operation or negotiation that results in the release and safe return of the hostage, and can this rescue be attributed to the U.S. and verified through reliable sources, such as verified news outlets or official U.S. government statements?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- **Reason 1: Complex negotiations and potential lack of leverage (Strength: 6/10)**: The U.S. may not have sufficient leverage or a clear strategy to negotiate the release of American hostages from Hamas, which could hinder a successful rescue operation.
- **Reason 2: Geopolitical tensions and potential obstacles (Strength: 7/10)**: The current geopolitical climate may create obstacles for the U.S. to conduct a successful rescue operation, such as diplomatic tensions with countries that could potentially assist in the rescue or restrictions on military action.
- **Reason 3: Hamas's ability to hide and protect hostages (Strength: 8/10)**: Hamas may have well-established networks and methods to hide and protect their hostages, making it difficult for the U.S. to locate and rescue them.
- **Reason 4: Limited information and uncertainty (Strength: 5/10)**: There may be limited information available about the hostages' location, condition, and circumstances, making it challenging for the U.S. to plan a successful rescue operation.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- **Reason 1: U.S. military capabilities and resources (Strength: 8/10)**: The U.S. has a well-equipped military with advanced capabilities and resources that could be used to conduct a successful rescue operation.
- **Reason 2: International cooperation and support (Strength: 7/10)**: The U.S. may be able to secure international cooperation and support from countries that could assist in the rescue operation, such as Israel or other allies.
- **Reason 3: Previous successful hostage rescue operations (Strength: 6/10)**: The U.S. has a history of successfully rescuing hostages in the past, which could indicate a potential for success in this case as well.
- **Reason 4: U.S. diplomatic efforts and negotiations (Strength: 9/10)**: The U.S. may be engaging in diplomatic efforts and negotiations with Hamas or other parties to secure the release of the hostages, which could lead to a successful outcome.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the U.S. has both advantages and disadvantages in terms of rescuing American hostages from Hamas. The U.S. has a strong military and resources, but Hamas may have the upper hand in hiding and protecting their hostages. The U.S. may also be able to secure international cooperation and support, but diplomatic tensions and limited information could hinder the rescue operation. Overall, it seems that the U.S. has a moderate chance of successfully rescuing at least one American hostage from Hamas by October 31.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the U.S. rescuing at least one American hostage from Hamas by October 31 as 40.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems to be relatively low, considering the U.S. military capabilities and resources. However, the complexity of the situation and the potential obstacles mentioned earlier may justify a more cautious approach. The base rate of successful hostage rescue operations by the U.S. is not explicitly provided, but it is generally known that such operations are challenging and often involve a high degree of uncertainty.

7. Final prediction:
*0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Cincinnati Bengals in their NFL Week 11 game on November 16, 2023, at M&T Bank Stadium at 5:15 PST? This question does not consider the score or margin of victory but only the outcome of the game, which can end in either a win, loss, or tie for the Ravens. A game ending in a tie will resolve as "no," while a game that otherwise does not have a clear winner (e.g., due to a disputed or incomplete game) will resolve as "N/A."

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
   - The Bengals have a strong offense, which could allow them to outscore the Ravens. (Strength: 6/10)
   - The Ravens have struggled with injuries to key players in previous seasons, and it's possible that they could be dealing with similar issues this season. (Strength: 5/10)
   - The Bengals have a strong home record against the Ravens in recent years, which could give them an advantage in this matchup. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
   - The Ravens have a strong defense, which could limit the Bengals' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 8/10)
   - The Ravens have a solid running game, which could help them control the clock and limit the Bengals' possessions. (Strength: 7/10)
   - The Bengals have struggled with consistency in their performance this season, which could lead to a letdown in this game. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Ravens' strong defense and solid running game give them an initial advantage. However, the Bengals' strong offense and home record against the Ravens are factors that could potentially counteract this advantage. Overall, the balance of these factors makes it a competitive matchup.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of initial probability: The initial probability of 55 seems reasonable, given the competitive nature of the matchup and the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. However, it's worth considering the base rate of NFL games, which is roughly 50%. This means that the probability should be adjusted downward to account for the fact that the Ravens and Bengals are evenly matched. Additionally, the initial probability should also be adjusted for the home-field advantage, which could give the Bengals a slight edge.

7. Final prediction: *0.53*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.53
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the New York Giants win the NFL game against the New York Jets on October 29, 2023, at MetLife Stadium, which starts at 10:00 PDT? The game's outcome will determine the final answer, considering a tie will result in a "NO" and an unfinished game will be classified as "N/A." Any unforeseen circumstances not covered by this criteria will be evaluated based on the question's intent.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The New York Jets have a strong team this season, with a talented young quarterback and a solid defense. (Strength: 4)
- The Giants have struggled with injuries to key players, which could impact their performance. (Strength: 3)
- The Jets have a home-field advantage at MetLife Stadium, which could give them an edge. (Strength: 2)
- The Giants have a history of inconsistent performance, which might affect their ability to win. (Strength: 1)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Giants have a strong offense led by their quarterback, which could help them score points. (Strength: 4)
- The Giants have a solid defense that could contain the Jets' offense. (Strength: 3)
- The Giants have a good record in their division and might be motivated to win. (Strength: 2)
- The Jets' young quarterback might struggle with the Giants' defense. (Strength: 1)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Giants have a slight edge in offense, but the Jets have a strong young quarterback and a solid defense. The home-field advantage at MetLife Stadium might also play a role. However, the Giants' history of inconsistency and injuries to key players are concerns.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the Giants' chances of winning at 55%.

6. Evaluation and adjustments:
Upon further consideration, I realize that the initial probability might be too low, given the Giants' strong offense and the Jets' inexperience. However, the Jets' young quarterback and solid defense still pose a significant threat. Considering the base rate of NFL games being competitive, I adjust the initial probability to 60%.

7. Final prediction:
*0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Aaron Rodgers play in at least one NFL game between September 12, 2023, and December 31, 2023? The resolution of this market will be based on whether Aaron Rodgers is on the field through the completion of at least one down in an NFL game within the specified time frame. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aaron Rodgers plays in any NFL game between September 12, 2023, PM ET and December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, and to "No" if he does not meet this criterion.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reason 1: Aaron Rodgers' age and injury history - As a 39-year-old NFL quarterback, Aaron Rodgers has experienced various injuries throughout his career. His age and injury history might increase the likelihood of him getting injured, which could prevent him from playing in the specified time frame. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: Team performance and coaching decisions - If the Green Bay Packers or Aaron Rodgers himself decides to bench him or limit his playing time, he might not meet the criteria for this market. (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 3: Aaron Rodgers' own decisions and preferences - Rodgers might choose to retire or take a break from the NFL, which would prevent him from playing in any games during the specified time frame. (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Reason 1: Aaron Rodgers' past performance and work ethic - Despite his age, Aaron Rodgers has consistently demonstrated a high level of physical fitness and a strong work ethic, which could enable him to continue playing at a high level. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: Team expectations and contract obligations - As the starting quarterback for the Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers has a significant role to play in the team's success. He is likely to be involved in games throughout the season, given his contract and the team's expectations. (Strength: 9/10)
- Reason 3: Aaron Rodgers' recent statements and actions - Rodgers has expressed his commitment to playing in the NFL for the foreseeable future. His recent actions and statements suggest that he intends to continue playing. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the factors pointing towards a "yes" outcome seem more significant and robust than those pointing towards a "no" outcome. Aaron Rodgers' past performance, team expectations, and recent statements and actions all suggest that he is likely to play in at least one NFL game between September 12, 2023, and December 31, 2023.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of Aaron Rodgers playing in at least one NFL game between September 12, 2023, and December 31, 2023, to be 85.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 85 seems reasonably confident, but it might be slightly too high considering the uncertainty associated with Aaron Rodgers' age and injury history. However, the team's expectations, Rodgers' work ethic, and recent statements and actions provide a strong foundation for this estimate.

7. Final prediction:
*0.80*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.8
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will Manchester United score more goals than Luton Town at the end of regular time plus stoppage time in their Premier League match on Saturday, November 11, 2023, at 15:00 UTC?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

* Luton Town has been performing well in the Premier League, and their defense has shown resilience in recent matches (Strength: 6/10). They might be able to hold Manchester United to a draw or even score more goals.
* Manchester United has had inconsistent form in the league, and their recent performances have been patchy (Strength: 7/10). This inconsistency might affect their ability to score more goals than Luton.
* Luton Town has a strong home record in the Premier League, and their fans' support might give them an edge in this match (Strength: 5/10). A strong home crowd could make it difficult for Manchester United to score more goals.
* Luton Town's manager, Rob Edwards, has shown tactical acumen in previous matches, and he might be able to outsmart Manchester United's manager, Erik ten Hag (Strength: 6/10). This could lead to Luton scoring more goals than Manchester United.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

* Manchester United has a more experienced and skilled squad, with players like Marcus Rashford, Anthony Martial, and Bruno Fernandes (Strength: 8/10). This experience and skill might give them an edge in scoring more goals.
* Manchester United has a strong attacking record in the Premier League, with many goals scored in recent matches (Strength: 8/10). This suggests that they have the capability to score more goals.
* Luton Town has struggled to score consistently in the Premier League, and their goalscoring record has been poor (Strength: 7/10). This might make it difficult for them to score more goals than Manchester United.
* Manchester United has a strong team spirit and a desire to win, which might drive them to score more goals (Strength: 6/10). This motivation could lead to a stronger performance from the team.

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, it seems that Manchester United's experience, skill, and attacking record give them an edge. However, Luton Town's resilience, home record, and tactical acumen might make it a challenging match. The strength of Manchester United's squad and their desire to win might ultimately give them the advantage.

5. Initial probability: 62%

6. Evaluation: The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident. Manchester United's inconsistency and Luton Town's resilience make it a close match. Additionally, the base rate of Manchester United scoring more goals than Luton Town in a Premier League match is not extremely high, as both teams have shown inconsistent form.

7. Final prediction: *0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $40,000.00 before January 1st, 2024, according to the data available on CoinMarketCap, considering that if the price hits $40,000.00 and then goes back down, it will still be considered a "yes" for the purpose of this question? This question will be resolved on December 4th, 2023, based on the closing price on that date.

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. Historical volatility: Bitcoin's price has been known to be highly volatile, with significant price swings in a short period. This volatility might lead to a decrease in price before January 1st, 2024. (Strength: 4)
2. Regulatory pressures: Governments and regulatory bodies might impose stricter regulations on cryptocurrency, which could negatively impact the price of Bitcoin. (Strength: 3)
3. Economic uncertainty: Economic downturns, inflation, or other global economic factors might lead to a decrease in the value of Bitcoin. (Strength: 4)
4. Competition from other cryptocurrencies: Other cryptocurrencies might gain popularity, reducing the demand for Bitcoin and causing its price to drop. (Strength: 2)
5. Market sentiment: A shift in investor sentiment, such as a decrease in confidence in the cryptocurrency market, could lead to a decrease in price. (Strength: 3)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. Growing adoption: Increased adoption of Bitcoin as a form of payment and store of value could lead to an increase in demand and, subsequently, price. (Strength: 4)
2. Limited supply: The total supply of Bitcoin is limited, which could lead to a decrease in supply and an increase in price. (Strength: 5)
3. Institutional investment: Institutional investors might continue to invest in Bitcoin, driving up the price. (Strength: 4)
4. Technological advancements: Improvements in the technology underlying Bitcoin, such as increased scalability and security, could increase its appeal and drive up the price. (Strength: 3)
5. Speculation: Some investors might speculate on a potential increase in price, driving up the price through market momentum. (Strength: 2)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the main factors that could influence the price of Bitcoin are its volatility, regulatory pressures, economic uncertainty, and market sentiment. However, the limited supply of Bitcoin and growing adoption could drive up the price. Institutional investment and technological advancements might also contribute to an increase in price. The strength of the reasons for a decrease in price (4 and 3) is relatively balanced with the strength of the reasons for an increase in price (5 and 4).

Initial probability: 55

Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability of 55 might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the potential impact of the reasons for a decrease in price. However, it also does not excessively overestimate the probability of an increase in price. Considering the base rate of the event (the price of Bitcoin being above $40,000.00 before January 1st, 2024), it is relatively low, which might justify a lower probability.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the New York Times file a lawsuit against OpenAI over copyright infringements by December 31, 2023, according to a reputable source? The market resolves to 'yes' if there is a confirmed report from a trustworthy source stating that the New York Times has filed a lawsuit against OpenAI for copyright infringement before the end of 2023. If no such lawsuit is filed by December 31, 2023, the market resolves to 'no'. This question considers the actions and intentions of the New York Times and OpenAI, as well as any potential legal precedents or conflicts that may have led to a lawsuit.

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. **Lack of public information**: There is no public information or credible sources indicating that the New York Times plans to file a lawsuit against OpenAI. (Strength: 4)
2. **OpenAI's licensing agreements**: OpenAI has partnerships with various media outlets, including the New York Times, for the use of their content in AI models. This could indicate that they have a mutually beneficial agreement in place, reducing the likelihood of a lawsuit. (Strength: 3)
3. **Copyright law complexities**: Copyright law is complex, and it's possible that OpenAI's use of copyrighted content is within the bounds of fair use or other exemptions. (Strength: 2)
4. **New York Times' focus on other issues**: The New York Times has been focused on various other issues, such as reporting on current events and investigative journalism, which might take priority over pursuing a lawsuit against OpenAI. (Strength: 2)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. **Copyright infringement allegations**: There have been allegations of copyright infringement against OpenAI, and the New York Times might be considering taking action. (Strength: 4)
2. **Growing scrutiny of AI companies**: As AI companies like OpenAI face increasing scrutiny over their use of copyrighted content, the New York Times might be more likely to file a lawsuit to set a precedent. (Strength: 4)
3. **New York Times' history of enforcing copyright**: The New York Times has a history of enforcing its copyright and taking action against those who infringe on its content. (Strength: 3)
4. **Potential financial motivations**: A lawsuit could potentially result in significant financial compensation for the New York Times if they win, which might be a motivating factor. (Strength: 2)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the likelihood of the New York Times filing a lawsuit against OpenAI by December 31, 2023, seems uncertain. The lack of public information and OpenAI's licensing agreements with the New York Times might suggest that a lawsuit is less likely, but the allegations of copyright infringement and the New York Times' history of enforcing copyright suggest that it's possible.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems reasonable given the mixed reasons for and against a lawsuit. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of lawsuits filed by the New York Times and the general likelihood of companies like OpenAI facing copyright infringement allegations.

Final prediction: *0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at EverBank Stadium on December 4, 2023, at 5:15 PST?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- The Cincinnati Bengals have a strong offense and a good defense, which could give the Jaguars a tough challenge. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Bengals have a history of performing well against the Jaguars, which might be a concern for the Jaguars' chances. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Jaguars have struggled with consistency this season, which could lead to them losing to a strong opponent like the Bengals. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Bengals' quarterback, Joe Burrow, has shown improvement in recent games and might lead his team to a win. (Strength: 6/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- The Jaguars have a strong defense that could potentially shut down the Bengals' offense. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Jaguars have a home-field advantage at EverBank Stadium, which could give them an edge. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Bengals have struggled with injuries this season, which might affect their performance against the Jaguars. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Jaguars have a solid running game, which could help them control the tempo of the game. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the key factors seem to be the Bengals' strong offense and defense, the Jaguars' consistency issues, and the home-field advantage. The Jaguars' strong defense and solid running game could potentially counterbalance the Bengals' strengths, but the Bengals' overall performance and history against the Jaguars are concerning.

5. Initial probability: 42

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 42 seems relatively moderate, considering the mixed factors at play. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of NFL games, where the home team wins around 50-60% of the time. This might suggest that the initial probability is not excessively confident or not confident enough. Additionally, the Jaguars' recent performance and the Bengals' injuries could be factors that might influence the outcome.

7. Final prediction: *0.475*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.475
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in their NFL Week 18 game at M&T Bank Stadium on January 5, 2024, at 10:00 AM PST? Given the information that I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending) and occasionally subsidize them, I will provide a resolution for this question as soon as possible after the game ends. If the game does not have a clear winner or ends in a tie, the resolution will be "N/A." The resolution criteria for this question are not applicable or available.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

- The Pittsburgh Steelers have historically had a strong rivalry with the Baltimore Ravens, often performing well in head-to-head matchups. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Steelers' defense has shown significant improvement in the 2023 season, which could pose a challenge for the Ravens' offense. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Ravens have struggled with injuries throughout the season, which could impact their performance in this game. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

- The Ravens have a strong offense, led by Lamar Jackson, which has consistently performed well throughout the season. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Ravens have a solid home-field advantage at M&T Bank Stadium, which could give them an edge in this game. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Steelers have struggled with consistency in the 2023 season, which could impact their performance in this game. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, I believe that the Ravens' strong offense and home-field advantage give them an initial advantage. However, the Steelers' improved defense and the Ravens' injury concerns could potentially impact the outcome. I will need to weigh these factors to determine a probability.

5. Initial probability: 62

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability seems somewhat cautious, given the Ravens' strong offense and home-field advantage. However, the Steelers' improved defense and Ravens' injury concerns do provide some uncertainty. I should also consider the base rate of the event, which is a relatively common occurrence in the NFL. This might suggest that my initial probability is not excessively confident.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Chandrayaan-3 lunar lander successfully land on the moon and transmit telemetry data back to Earth within the scheduled landing period, which is considered a success, or will it fail to do so, resulting in radio silence? The success of the mission is defined as the lander successfully touching down on the moon's surface and sending back telemetry data, while failure is defined as the loss of communication after the scheduled landing period.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings out of 10):

*   Technical issues during launch or ascent phase (6/10): There is a possibility of technical malfunctions during the launch or ascent phase that could impact the lander's trajectory or communication systems, leading to a failure.
*   Navigation and communication system errors (7/10): The Chandrayaan-3 mission relies heavily on precise navigation and communication systems to reach the moon and establish contact. Errors in these systems could result in the lander missing its target or losing communication.
*   Harsh lunar environment (8/10): The lunar surface is a harsh environment with extreme temperatures, radiation, and lack of atmosphere, which could cause damage to the lander's systems or impact its ability to communicate with Earth.
*   Human error or unexpected events (3/10): Human error or unexpected events, such as a sudden solar flare or a malfunctioning component, could also contribute to the failure of the mission.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings out of 10):

*   India's successful track record in space exploration (9/10): India has a proven track record of successfully launching and operating spacecraft, including the previous Chandrayaan-1 and Chandrayaan-2 missions.
*   Thorough testing and validation (8/10): The Chandrayaan-3 mission has undergone extensive testing and validation to ensure its systems are functioning correctly, reducing the likelihood of technical issues.
*   Experience with lunar missions (7/10): India has gained experience with lunar missions, including the Chandrayaan-2 mission, which although failed to land, provided valuable insights for the Chandrayaan-3 mission.
*   Robust communication systems (6/10): The Chandrayaan-3 mission is equipped with advanced communication systems, which should enable it to establish a stable connection with Earth and transmit data back.

4. Aggregated considerations:
The aggregated considerations take into account the strength of each reason for both the yes and no possibilities. The weighted average of the reasons for a yes outcome is higher, indicating a more favorable outlook. However, the reasons for a no outcome are not negligible and should not be discounted.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would assign an initial probability of 70 to the Chandrayaan-3 lunar lander successfully landing on the moon and transmitting telemetry data back to Earth.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 70 seems reasonable, given the strengths of both the yes and no reasons. However, it may be considered slightly overconfident, as the reasons for a no outcome are not entirely negligible. Considering the base rate of space mission failures, which is relatively high, the initial probability might be adjusted downward.

7. Final prediction:
After reevaluating the initial probability, I would adjust it to *0.60*. This reflects a more conservative estimate, taking into account the potential risks and uncertainties associated with space missions.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**
Will a new F-Zero game, with the title "F-Zero" and published and/or developed by Nintendo, be released before January 1st, 2028, in any timezone, excluding ports, remakes, and remasters? The question is based on the history of the F-Zero series, which has seen six mainline games released between 1990 and 2004. Given the time gap since the last mainline F-Zero game, the question assesses the likelihood of a new installment being released before the specified date.

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):**

1. **Lack of official announcements or hints**: There have been no official announcements or hints from Nintendo about a new F-Zero game, which suggests that the series might not be a priority for the company. (Strength: 4)
2. **Nintendo's focus on other franchises**: Nintendo has been focusing on other successful franchises like Mario, Zelda, and Pokémon, which might have taken resources away from the F-Zero series. (Strength: 3)
3. **Shift in gaming trends**: The gaming industry has evolved significantly since the last F-Zero game, and Nintendo might be hesitant to invest in a series that may not appeal to modern gamers. (Strength: 2)
4. **Development challenges**: Creating a game that meets the high standards of the F-Zero series can be a significant undertaking, and Nintendo might be cautious about investing in a new game. (Strength: 2)
5. **No clear reason to revive the series**: There is no apparent reason for Nintendo to revive the F-Zero series, which might make it less likely for a new game to be released. (Strength: 1)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):**

1. **Nintendo's history of reviving dormant franchises**: Nintendo has a history of reviving dormant franchises, such as the Metroid and Kid Icarus series. (Strength: 4)
2. **Potential for a new audience**: The F-Zero series has a dedicated fan base, and a new game could attract a new audience interested in high-speed racing games. (Strength: 3)
3. **Advancements in technology**: The advancements in gaming technology could provide new opportunities for the F-Zero series to be reimagined and improved. (Strength: 3)
4. **Nintendo's willingness to experiment**: Nintendo has shown a willingness to experiment with new ideas and franchises, which could lead to a new F-Zero game. (Strength: 2)
5. **Fan demand**: The F-Zero series has a dedicated fan base that has been requesting a new game for years, which could put pressure on Nintendo to release a new installment. (Strength: 2)

**Aggregated Considerations:**
Considering the reasons for and against a new F-Zero game, it seems that the lack of official announcements and Nintendo's focus on other franchises are significant hurdles. However, the company's history of reviving dormant franchises and the potential for a new audience suggest that a new game is not entirely impossible. The strength of the reasons against a new game outweighs the reasons for, but there is still a possibility that Nintendo might surprise fans.

**Initial Probability:** 20

**Evaluation of Initial Probability:**
The initial probability of 20 might be considered not confident enough, given the dedicated fan base and Nintendo's history of reviving franchises. However, the lack of official announcements and Nintendo's focus on other franchises make it difficult to assign a higher probability.

**Final Prediction:** *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will US President Joe Biden visit Israel by the end of 2023? Given that the question is being asked on 2023-10-12 and the resolution criteria are not available, we are looking for a prediction based on publicly available information up to this point in time. We will consider various factors, including current events, geopolitical tensions, and the president's schedule, to make an informed prediction.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 6/10**: The US has a complex relationship with Israel, and the current situation in the Middle East might not be conducive to a presidential visit. Ongoing conflicts, such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, could make a visit challenging or even risky.
- **Strength: 4/10**: President Biden's schedule might be too packed to accommodate a visit to Israel by the end of 2023. The president has a busy schedule, and other international trips or domestic priorities might take precedence.
- **Strength: 3/10**: There have been no official announcements or indications from the White House about a planned visit to Israel in 2023. This lack of information suggests that a visit might not be in the works.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 8/10**: President Biden has a strong relationship with Israel and has visited the country in the past. He might prioritize a visit to maintain and strengthen this relationship, especially given the current regional dynamics.
- **Strength: 7/10**: The US and Israel cooperate closely on various issues, including defense and counter-terrorism. A visit by the president could be an opportunity to reinforce these ties and address any pressing issues.
- **Strength: 5/10**: The Biden administration has been actively engaged in the Middle East, and a visit to Israel could be part of a broader effort to promote regional stability and security.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the above points, it seems that there are more reasons to suggest a visit might happen than not. However, the lack of official announcements and the complexity of the US-Israel relationship introduce some uncertainty.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would assign an initial probability of 60 to the event.

6. Evaluation and refinement:
Upon further reflection, I realize that the base rate of presidential visits to foreign countries is relatively high. This suggests that my initial probability might be too low. Additionally, the fact that there are no official announcements does not necessarily mean a visit won't happen. I should consider the possibility of a last-minute announcement or a change in circumstances that might make a visit more feasible.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the above refinements, I adjust my initial probability to *0.70*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the announcement for the next World of Warcraft expansion include a new playable race, which is a distinct, separate entity from the existing races, including the Allied races, and not a customization option for existing races? The announcement should be made at Blizzcon 2023 (November 3-4th) or shortly after. This question will be resolved based on the initial announcement details, and the resolution will not be dependent on the actual release of the expansion.

Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. **Historical precedent of expansions not introducing new playable races**: World of Warcraft expansions have occasionally introduced new playable classes or professions, but not new playable races. The last new playable race, the Draenei and the Blood Elf, was introduced in The Burning Crusade expansion in 2007. This might indicate a pattern of not introducing new playable races in expansions. (Strength: 4)
2. **Blizzard's focus on other features**: Blizzard has been focusing on other aspects of the game, such as the Shadowlands expansion's Covenant system and the upcoming Dragonflight expansion's features. Introducing a new playable race might not be a priority. (Strength: 3)
3. **Development and testing time**: Developing and testing a new playable race would require significant resources and time. This might be a challenging task for the development team, and they might opt for other features. (Strength: 4)
4. **Community feedback and demand**: The community's demand for new playable races might not be high enough to justify the development time and resources. (Strength: 2)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. **Rumors and leaks**: There have been rumors and leaks suggesting that a new playable race might be introduced in the next expansion. (Strength: 4)
2. **Expansion cycle**: The Dragonflight expansion is expected to be a significant one, and introducing a new playable race could be a way to revitalize the game and attract new players. (Strength: 5)
3. **Blizzard's desire to innovate**: Blizzard has a history of innovating and surprising players with new features. Introducing a new playable race could be a way to do so. (Strength: 4)
4. **Player demand and feedback**: The community has been requesting new playable races for a while, and Blizzard might finally decide to cater to this demand. (Strength: 3)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the main factors influencing the answer are the historical precedent of expansions not introducing new playable races, the focus on other features, and the development and testing time required. However, the rumors and leaks, the expansion cycle, and the community's desire for innovation and new playable races are also significant factors.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems reasonable, given the mixed signals from the reasons above. However, it's worth noting that the base rate of new playable races being introduced in expansions is low, which might affect the overall confidence in the prediction.

Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the #4 Alabama Crimson Tide defeat the #1 Michigan Wolverines in their upcoming College Football Playoff (CFP) Semifinal match in the 2024 Rose Bowl, scheduled to take place on January 1, 2024, at 5 PM ET in Pasadena, California, with Michigan favored by 1.5 points? Given the current date of December 3, 2023, and the question's close date of January 2, 2024, we are considering the probability of Alabama's victory in this specific matchup.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- Michigan's strong regular season performance and top-ranked status might give them an edge over Alabama. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Wolverines' defense has shown the ability to contain high-powered offenses, which could limit Alabama's scoring opportunities. (Strength: 6.5/10)
- Michigan's offense, led by quarterback J.J. McCarthy, has been impressive, and their ability to move the ball against Alabama's defense could be a significant factor. (Strength: 8/10)
- Alabama's inconsistent performance in certain games during the regular season might raise concerns about their ability to perform under pressure in the playoffs. (Strength: 5.5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- Alabama's rich history of success in big games, including multiple national championships, suggests they have the experience and resilience to perform well in high-pressure situations. (Strength: 8.5/10)
- The Crimson Tide's offense, led by quarterback Jalen Milroe, has shown the ability to adapt and make adjustments, which could help them counter Michigan's defense. (Strength: 7.5/10)
- Alabama's defense has been solid this season, and their ability to contain Michigan's offense could be a key factor in their victory. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Crimson Tide's experience in the playoffs, including their recent successes, might give them an edge over Michigan in a high-stakes game. (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, it seems that Michigan's regular season performance and strong defense might give them an initial edge. However, Alabama's experience in big games and ability to adapt could help them counter Michigan's offense. The Crimson Tide's inconsistent performance in certain games is a concern, but their experience in the playoffs and ability to contain Michigan's offense might be enough to secure a victory.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would initially estimate the probability of Alabama beating Michigan at 55%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too low given Alabama's experience in big games and their ability to adapt. However, considering the strong performance of Michigan's defense and offense, a 55% probability might be a fair assessment. Another factor to consider is the base rate of the event, which is a College Football Playoff Semifinal game. This type of game is often closely contested, with many outcomes possible.

7. Final prediction:
*0.57*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.57
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the ongoing Writers Guild of America (WGA) strike end by November 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This question requires both the Writers Guild of America West (WGAW) and Writers Guild of America East (WGAE) to officially end the strike. The primary sources for this information will be the official websites of the WGA (WGAW: XXXX; WGAE: XXXX) and credible reporting. The question will be resolved based on the strike's status as of November 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET.

Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strongest to weakest):

1. **Negotiation complexities**: The WGA strike involves complex negotiations between the WGA and major studios, which can be time-consuming and may lead to a prolonged strike. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Industry resistance**: The strike has already caused significant disruptions in the entertainment industry, and studios may be resistant to making concessions to the WGA. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Lack of clear resolution path**: The strike has been ongoing for some time, and it's unclear if a clear resolution path has been established. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Potential for WGA internal divisions**: The WGA has faced internal divisions in the past, which could impact the strike's outcome. (Strength: 3/10)
5. **External factors**: External factors, such as the 2024 US presidential election or economic changes, could distract from the strike and delay a resolution. (Strength: 2/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strongest to weakest):

1. **Increased public awareness**: The strike has raised public awareness about the WGA's issues and may pressure studios to make concessions. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **WGAE's support**: The Writers Guild of America East (WGAE) has been a strong supporter of the strike, and their continued support could help maintain momentum. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **WGAW's negotiation strategy**: The Writers Guild of America West (WGAW) has a strong negotiation team, and their strategy may lead to a successful resolution. (Strength: 6/10)
4. **Industry pressure to resolve**: The strike has already caused significant disruptions in the entertainment industry, and studios may be motivated to resolve the strike to minimize further losses. (Strength: 5/10)
5. **WGAW's previous experience**: The WGAW has experience with successful negotiations in the past, which could indicate a positive outcome. (Strength: 4/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the strike's outcome is uncertain. However, the reasons suggesting a "no" outcome are more prominent, with negotiation complexities, industry resistance, and lack of a clear resolution path being the most significant factors. On the other hand, increased public awareness, WGAE's support, and WGAW's negotiation strategy provide some hope for a resolution.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 may be too low, considering the reasons suggesting a "yes" outcome. The strike's outcome is uncertain, and the initial probability should reflect this. However, the reasons suggesting a "no" outcome are more prominent, which may justify a lower initial probability.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Buffalo Bills in their NFL Week 12 game scheduled to take place on November 26, 2023, at Lincoln Financial Field, with a start time of 1:25 PST?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
   - The Buffalo Bills have a strong offense led by Josh Allen, who has shown the ability to perform well under pressure. (Strength: 6/10)
   - The Bills have a solid defense that can potentially limit the Eagles' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 5/10)
   - The Eagles might be dealing with injuries or fatigue from their previous games, which could affect their performance. (Strength: 4/10)
   - The Bills have a history of performing well in big games and might be motivated to pull off an upset. (Strength: 3/10)
   - The Eagles' defense might struggle to contain the Bills' running game, which could lead to a high-scoring game. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
   - The Eagles have a strong home-field advantage at Lincoln Financial Field, which could give them an edge in the game. (Strength: 8/10)
   - The Eagles have a more experienced quarterback in Jalen Hurts, who has shown the ability to perform well under pressure. (Strength: 7/10)
   - The Eagles' defense has been improving throughout the season and might be able to contain the Bills' offense. (Strength: 6/10)
   - The Eagles have a well-rounded team with a strong running game, which could help them control the clock and limit the Bills' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 7/10)
   - The Eagles have a history of performing well in big games and might be motivated to win. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, it seems that the Eagles have a slight advantage due to their home-field advantage and more experienced quarterback. However, the Bills' strong offense and defense make them a formidable opponent. The Eagles' ability to control the clock and limit the Bills' scoring opportunities could be crucial in determining the outcome of the game.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Eagles beating the Bills at around 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident. The Bills have shown the ability to perform well in big games, and their strong offense and defense make them a legitimate contender. It's also worth considering the base rate of the event, which is a win for the Eagles. However, since this is a specific game, the base rate is less relevant.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the ongoing Writers Guild of America (WGA) strike, which involves both the Writers Guild of America West (WGAW) and the Writers Guild of America East (WGAE), end by December 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, according to official information from the WGA (WGAW: XXXX; WGAE: XXXX) and a consensus of credible reporting?

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, 5 being the strongest):
1. **Negotiation complexity**: The WGA strike involves complex negotiations between multiple parties, including the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) and the WGA. These negotiations can be lengthy and difficult to resolve, making it challenging to meet the December 15 deadline. (Strength: 4)
2. **Past experience**: Previous WGA strikes have often lasted for several months, with the 2007-2008 strike lasting for 100 days and the 2008-2009 strike lasting for 100 days. This history suggests that WGA strikes can be protracted. (Strength: 4)
3. **Industry pushback**: The AMPTP and other industry stakeholders may resist concessions to the WGA's demands, potentially leading to a prolonged strike. (Strength: 3)
4. **Union divisions**: There may be divisions within the WGA, with some members supporting a more aggressive approach to negotiations, while others may be more cautious. This internal conflict could slow down the negotiation process. (Strength: 2)
5. **External factors**: External events, such as the upcoming awards season or the 2024 presidential election, may not provide sufficient pressure to force a resolution. (Strength: 2)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, 5 being the strongest):
1. **Increased public support**: The WGA strike has gained significant public attention and support, which could pressure the AMPTP to make concessions. (Strength: 4)
2. **Economic pressure**: The strike is already affecting the entertainment industry, with some productions halted or delayed. This economic pressure may encourage the AMPTP to reach a deal. (Strength: 4)
3. **WGA's bargaining position**: The WGA has a strong bargaining position, with a unified membership and a clear set of demands. This could give them leverage to negotiate a favorable deal. (Strength: 4)
4. **Previous agreements**: The WGA has reached agreements in the past, and there is a precedent for successful negotiations. (Strength: 3)
5. **Time constraints**: The WGA and AMPTP may be motivated to reach a deal by December 15 to avoid further disruptions to the industry. (Strength: 3)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I believe that the strike is more likely to end than not. However, the complex negotiation process, past experience, and industry pushback create uncertainty. The increased public support, economic pressure, WGA's bargaining position, and previous agreements suggest that a deal is possible.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of confidence:
My initial probability of 60 may be too high, given the complexity of the negotiations and the potential for external factors to influence the outcome. I may be underestimating the challenges involved in reaching a deal.

Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Washington Commanders beat the Philadelphia Eagles in their Week 8 NFL game on October 29, 2023, at FedExField, which starts at 10:00 PDT? This question does not consider any potential tie or incomplete game scenarios. The answer will be a definitive "yes" if the Commanders win the game, and "no" if they lose. If there is insufficient information to determine a winner, the answer will be "N/A".

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Philadelphia Eagles' strong performance in the NFC East** (Strength: 8/10): The Eagles are a strong team in the NFC East, and their performance may be difficult for the Commanders to overcome. The Eagles have a strong offense and defense, which could lead to a Commanders loss.
- **Reason 2: Commanders' inconsistent season start** (Strength: 6/10): The Commanders have had an inconsistent start to the season, with some strong performances followed by weaker ones. This inconsistency may make it difficult for them to consistently compete against strong teams like the Eagles.
- **Reason 3: Home-field disadvantage** (Strength: 4/10): The Commanders are playing at FedExField, which may not provide them with the same level of support as the Eagles' home stadium. This could affect their performance and lead to a loss.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Commanders' strong home record** (Strength: 7/10): The Commanders have a strong home record at FedExField, which may give them an advantage in this game.
- **Reason 2: Eagles' potential vulnerability on the road** (Strength: 5/10): While the Eagles are strong at home, they may be vulnerable on the road, which could give the Commanders an opportunity to win.
- **Reason 3: Commanders' potential to capitalize on Eagles' mistakes** (Strength: 3/10): If the Eagles make mistakes, the Commanders may be able to capitalize on them and gain an advantage.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Commanders' inconsistent season start, and the Eagles' strong performance in the NFC East, I believe the Eagles have a slight advantage. However, the Commanders' strong home record and potential to capitalize on Eagles' mistakes may give them a chance to win.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially predict a 40% chance that the Washington Commanders will beat the Philadelphia Eagles.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability may be too confident, as there are many factors that could influence the outcome of the game. The Commanders' inconsistency and the Eagles' strength in the NFC East may make it difficult for the Commanders to win. However, the Commanders' home record and potential to capitalize on Eagles' mistakes may give them a chance. I may need to consider the base rate of the event, which is that the home team wins around 50% of the time in the NFL.

7. Final prediction:
*0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Carolina Panthers defeat the Green Bay Packers in their NFL Week 16 game scheduled to take place at Bank of America Stadium on December 24, 2023, at 10:00 PST?

Considering the question's specific context, I will assume that the resolution criteria are not applicable or available, and the focus is on predicting the game's outcome based on the given information.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- The Green Bay Packers have a strong offense, which could give them an advantage in this matchup. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Packers have a more experienced quarterback, which can be a significant factor in the NFL. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Panthers might struggle with their defense, which could allow the Packers to score easily. (Strength: 4/10)
- The Packers have a better record and might be more confident going into this game. (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- The Panthers have a strong home-field advantage at Bank of America Stadium. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Panthers' defense has shown improvement this season and might be able to contain the Packers' offense. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Panthers have a talented young quarterback who could make plays and lead their team to a win. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Packers might be looking ahead to their next game or have a letdown after a recent win. (Strength: 4/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the Panthers' home-field advantage and the Packers' potential letdown might balance out the Packers' stronger offense and quarterback experience. The Panthers' improved defense and young quarterback could also be a significant factor.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially predict a 55% chance that the Carolina Panthers will defeat the Green Bay Packers.

6. Evaluation and final thoughts:
My initial probability might be too low, considering the Panthers' home-field advantage and their potential to contain the Packers' offense. However, the Packers' stronger offense and quarterback experience might give them an edge. I also need to consider the base rate of NFL games, where upsets are common. Taking these factors into account, I might need to adjust my initial probability upwards.

7. Final prediction:
*0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and Expanded Question:**

Given that Nadine Dorries has stood down as an MP with immediate effect, leading to an imminent by-election in the Mid-Bedfordshire constituency, what is the likelihood that the Conservative Party candidate will win the seat?

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be No:**

1. **Recent Unpopularity of the Conservative Party**: The Conservative Party has been experiencing a decline in popularity in recent months, which could lead to a weaker performance in the by-election. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Nadine Dorries's Controversial Stance**: Nadine Dorries has been known for her polarizing views, which might have alienated some Conservative voters. Her departure could lead to a backlash against the Conservative Party. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Labour Party's Strong Performance in Local Elections**: The Labour Party has performed well in local elections in the region, indicating a strong grassroots presence and potential for a good showing in the by-election. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Liberal Democrats' Potential to Gain**: The Liberal Democrats have a history of performing well in by-elections, especially when the incumbent party is unpopular. They might capitalize on the Conservative Party's weakness. (Strength: 6/10)

**Reasons Why the Answer Might be Yes:**

1. **Conservative Party's Strong Local Presence**: The Conservative Party has a strong local presence in Mid-Bedfordshire, with a well-organized party machinery and a loyal voter base. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Nadine Dorries's Legacy**: Nadine Dorries has been a prominent Conservative MP in the area, and her departure might not necessarily harm the Conservative Party's chances, especially if the new candidate is well-chosen. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Low Turnout in By-Elections**: By-elections often have lower turnout rates compared to general elections, which can benefit the Conservative Party, as their voters are more likely to turn out. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Conservative Party's National Strategy**: The Conservative Party might deploy a strong national campaign strategy to support the local candidate, which could help to boost their chances. (Strength: 6/10)

**Aggregated Considerations:**

After weighing the reasons for and against the Conservative Party winning the seat, I consider the following factors:

* The Conservative Party's recent unpopularity and Nadine Dorries's controversial stance might hurt their chances.
* The Labour Party's strong performance in local elections and the Liberal Democrats' potential to gain ground are significant threats.
* However, the Conservative Party's strong local presence, Nadine Dorries's legacy, and the potential for a low turnout in the by-election might still give them an edge.

**Initial Probability:** 45

**Evaluation of Initial Probability:**

My initial probability of 45% might be considered relatively cautious, given the Conservative Party's strong local presence and Nadine Dorries's legacy. However, the recent unpopularity of the Conservative Party and the strong performance of the Labour Party in local elections suggest that the outcome is far from certain.

**Final Prediction:** *0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will Lionel Messi score 5 or more goals in the month of October 2023, considering all goals scored in club and country matches played between October 1st and October 31st, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
   - Messi's recent performance might be off, and he might be going through a goal-scoring drought (Strength: 4/10).
   - The quality of opponents in October might be higher than usual, making it difficult for Messi to score multiple goals (Strength: 3/10).
   - Messi's team might not be playing in as many high-scoring games in October, reducing the opportunities for him to score multiple goals (Strength: 2/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
   - Messi has a history of scoring goals consistently throughout his career, and it's unlikely he will suddenly stop (Strength: 8/10).
   - Messi has been playing at an elite level for his club and country in recent years, and October is likely to be no exception (Strength: 7/10).
   - Messi's team might be playing in several high-scoring games in October, providing him with opportunities to score multiple goals (Strength: 5/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:
   - Messi's recent performance and the quality of opponents might be a concern, but his overall consistency and history of scoring goals make him a strong candidate to score 5 or more goals in October.
   - The number of high-scoring games his team plays in October could be a crucial factor in determining the outcome.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
   - The initial probability of 60 might be considered not confident enough, given Messi's impressive track record and the potential for high-scoring games in October.
   - Another consideration is that Messi has a history of scoring goals in big games and tournaments, which might increase the likelihood of him scoring 5 or more goals in October.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Sweden beat the United States in the Women's World Cup? Considering the current form of both teams, their past performances in major tournaments, and any other relevant factors, what is the likelihood that Sweden will emerge victorious in their matchup at the Women's World Cup?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is strongest):
- The United States has historically been a strong contender in the Women's World Cup, with a higher overall ranking and more experience in major tournaments. (Strength: 5)
- The US team has a more established squad with many skilled players who have performed well in past World Cups. (Strength: 4)
- Sweden's performance in recent tournaments has been inconsistent, and they may struggle to match the US team's level of skill and experience. (Strength: 3)
- The US team has a strong team dynamic and chemistry, which could give them an edge in high-pressure situations. (Strength: 4)
- Sweden's squad may be more prone to injuries or player absences, which could weaken their chances. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is strongest):
- Sweden has a strong squad with skilled players who have performed well in recent tournaments. (Strength: 4)
- The US team has faced some challenges in recent matches, and Sweden may be able to capitalize on their opponents' weaknesses. (Strength: 3)
- Sweden's team has a strong defense, which could help them contain the US team's offense. (Strength: 4)
- The US team may struggle to adapt to Sweden's tactics and style of play, which could give Sweden an advantage. (Strength: 3)
- Sweden's coach has experience in international competitions and may be able to outmaneuver the US team's coach. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Taking into account the reasons provided above, it seems that the US team has a slight advantage due to their historical performance and experience in major tournaments. However, Sweden's strong squad and potential to capitalize on the US team's weaknesses could make them a competitive opponent. The key factor will be how well both teams perform on the day of the match.

5. Initial probability: 60
Based on the considerations above, I would initially estimate that the US team has a 60% chance of beating Sweden.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon reflection, I realize that my initial probability may be too high. While the US team has a strong record, Sweden's potential to capitalize on their weaknesses and adapt to the US team's tactics could make them a more competitive opponent than initially thought. Additionally, the base rate of the US team beating Sweden is not extremely high, as they have not dominated Sweden in recent matches. Therefore, I may need to adjust my initial probability downward.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Baldur's Gate 3 remain one of the top 5 highest rated games of all time on OpenCritic at the end of 2023, considering the current ranking and the potential for new game releases and reviews between August 2023 and December 2023? This question assumes that the ranking on OpenCritic will be based on the average critic and user review scores at the end of 2023, and that the game will not be removed from the list during this time period. The question will be resolved as YES if Baldur's Gate 3 is ranked in the top 5 highest rated games on OpenCritic at the end of 2023 in any timezone.

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. New game releases: Several highly anticipated games are scheduled to be released between August 2023 and December 2023, which could potentially receive high ratings and push Baldur's Gate 3 out of the top 5. (Strength: 4)
2. Changing gaming landscape: The gaming landscape is constantly evolving, and new trends, genres, or gameplay mechanics might emerge, causing players and critics to reevaluate and adjust their rankings. (Strength: 3)
3. Review score inflation: As the gaming industry grows, review scores might become less stringent, leading to an increase in average scores across the board, potentially pushing Baldur's Gate 3 out of the top 5. (Strength: 2)
4. Critic and user review fatigue: As more games are released, critics and users might become desensitized to high-quality games, leading to lower review scores and a decrease in Baldur's Gate 3's ranking. (Strength: 1)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. Strong critical acclaim: Baldur's Gate 3 has received widespread critical acclaim, and its high review scores are likely to be sustained throughout 2023. (Strength: 5)
2. Fan loyalty: The Baldur's Gate series has a dedicated fan base, and fans are likely to continue supporting the game and maintaining its high ranking. (Strength: 4)
3. Limited competition: While new games will be released, the competition for the top 5 spots on OpenCritic might be limited, giving Baldur's Gate 3 a relatively stable position. (Strength: 3)
4. Continued updates and support: Larian Studios, the developer of Baldur's Gate 3, has committed to post-launch support, which could lead to further improvements and refinements, maintaining the game's high ranking. (Strength: 2)

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons for both yes and no, I believe that the factors favoring a yes outcome (strong critical acclaim, fan loyalty, limited competition, and continued updates and support) outweigh the factors favoring a no outcome (new game releases, changing gaming landscape, review score inflation, and critic and user review fatigue). However, the strength of the no factors is not insignificant, and there is a possibility that new games could challenge Baldur's Gate 3's ranking.

Initial probability: 70

Evaluation of initial probability:

Upon reflection, I realize that my initial probability might be too high, as the factors favoring a no outcome are not negligible. I should consider the base rate of games being able to maintain their high ranking over time, which is likely low. This might suggest that the initial probability should be lower.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the New Orleans Saints win their Week 13 NFL game against the Detroit Lions, which will take place at Caesars Superdome on December 3, 2023, at 10:00 PST? 

This rephrased question maintains all the information from the original question, including the location, date, and time of the game, as well as the resolution criteria. It also clarifies the specific question being asked, which is whether the Saints will win the game.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Saints have been inconsistent this season, with some strong performances followed by disappointing losses (strength: 4).
- The Lions have shown improvement in recent weeks, which could make them a more competitive opponent (strength: 4).
- The Saints' defense has struggled to contain strong offenses, which could be a concern against the Lions' offense (strength: 3).
- The Lions have a relatively weak schedule leading up to this game, which might make them more rested and prepared (strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Saints have a strong home-field advantage at Caesars Superdome, which could give them an edge (strength: 5).
- The Saints have a more experienced quarterback in Derek Carr, who has a history of performing well in big games (strength: 4).
- The Saints have a more well-rounded offense, which could help them outscore the Lions (strength: 4).
- The Lions have struggled on the road this season, which could make it difficult for them to win at the Saints' home stadium (strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, it seems that the Saints have a slight advantage, mainly due to their home-field advantage and more experienced quarterback. However, the Lions' recent improvement and the Saints' inconsistency make this a closer game than it initially seems. The Saints' defense also remains a concern, as they have struggled to contain strong offenses.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Saints winning the game to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident. Considering the unpredictability of NFL games and the potential for upsets, it's possible that the actual probability is lower. Additionally, the base rate of the Saints winning this specific game is not particularly high, as they are not one of the top teams in the league. However, they do have a history of performing well at home.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: Will Russian President Vladimir Putin visit Turkey in August 2023 as claimed by Turkish President Erdogan during a press conference on July 8, 2023?

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Unpredictability of international relations**: The current state of international relations between Russia and Turkey can be unpredictable, and there might be unforeseen developments that could lead to the cancellation of the visit. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Previous cancellations**: Putin has cancelled visits to Turkey in the past due to various reasons, including scheduling conflicts and unexpected events. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Ukraine conflict**: The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine might lead to a deterioration in relations between Russia and Turkey, making a visit less likely. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Domestic issues in Russia**: Putin might have domestic priorities that take precedence over international visits, such as the upcoming elections in Russia. (Strength: 4/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Erdogan's statement**: Erdogan's statement at the press conference on July 8, 2023, suggests that the visit is planned, and Erdogan might have been informed about the visit. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Improved relations between Russia and Turkey**: Despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russia and Turkey have maintained relatively good relations, and a visit could be a sign of their continued cooperation. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Economic interests**: Turkey and Russia have significant economic interests in each other, and a visit could be an opportunity for both sides to discuss trade and economic cooperation. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Diplomatic efforts**: Putin and Erdogan have a history of meeting and discussing regional and international issues, and a visit could be part of their ongoing diplomatic efforts. (Strength: 7/10)

Aggregated considerations: Considering the reasons for and against the visit, I weigh the strengths of each argument. The unpredictability of international relations and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine are significant concerns, but Erdogan's statement and the improved relations between Russia and Turkey suggest that the visit might still take place. I also consider the economic interests and diplomatic efforts of both countries.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of the initial probability: My initial probability of 60% might be overly optimistic, considering the unpredictability of international relations and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. However, Erdogan's statement and the improved relations between Russia and Turkey suggest that the visit might still take place.

Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Sean O'Malley defeat Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292 on August 19th, 2023, in Boston, USA? If Sean O'Malley wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Aljamain Sterling wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A. Considering the skills, past performances, and potential factors that might influence the outcome of the fight, what is the likelihood of Sean O'Malley emerging victorious?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- Aljamain Sterling is the current Bantamweight champion and has a strong record, which could give him an advantage over Sean O'Malley. (Strength: 8)
- Sterling has experience in fighting against top-level opponents and has shown the ability to adapt to different fighting styles. (Strength: 7)
- Sean O'Malley has a tendency to start strong but often tires in the later rounds, which could be exploited by Sterling's endurance. (Strength: 6)
- Sterling has a more well-rounded skillset, including wrestling and grappling, which could give him an edge over O'Malley's more aggressive striking style. (Strength: 8)
- O'Malley has faced criticism for his performance in his last fight against Pedro Munhoz, which might indicate a decline in his skills. (Strength: 5)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- Sean O'Malley has shown incredible knockout power and speed, which could catch Sterling off guard. (Strength: 9)
- O'Malley has a strong striking game and has been working on his wrestling skills, which could help him neutralize Sterling's grappling advantages. (Strength: 7)
- O'Malley has a significant reach advantage over Sterling, which could allow him to keep the fight at a distance and land quick jabs. (Strength: 8)
- O'Malley has been training with top coaches and has shown significant improvement in his skills, which could give him an edge over Sterling. (Strength: 6)
- Sterling has been criticized for his performance in his last fight against Henry Cejudo, which might indicate a decline in his skills. (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that the fight is relatively evenly matched, with both fighters having strengths and weaknesses. However, Sterling's experience and well-rounded skillset give him a slight advantage. On the other hand, O'Malley's knockout power and speed could be game-changers. Overall, I would rate the likelihood of O'Malley winning as slightly lower than Sterling.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Sean O'Malley defeating Aljamain Sterling at 45%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 45% seems relatively neutral, considering the evenly matched nature of the fight. However, it might be too low, given O'Malley's impressive knockout power and speed. Additionally, the base rate of underdogs winning in the UFC is relatively high, which might suggest that O'Malley's chances are underestimated.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the game against the Washington Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field on October 1, 2023, at 10:00 PDT?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-10, with 10 being the strongest reason):

* The Philadelphia Eagles have a tough schedule this season, and their recent performance might be affected by fatigue. (Strength: 6)
* The Washington Commanders have been improving their team, and their defense might be able to contain the Eagles' offense. (Strength: 7)
* The Eagles' quarterback, Jalen Hurts, has been dealing with injuries, which might impact their performance. (Strength: 5)
* The Commanders' running back, Brian Robinson, has been performing well, and their running game might be able to control the clock and limit the Eagles' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 8)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-10, with 10 being the strongest reason):

* The Eagles have a strong offense led by Jalen Hurts, and their passing game might be able to exploit the Commanders' defense. (Strength: 9)
* The Eagles' defense has been solid this season, and they might be able to contain the Commanders' offense. (Strength: 8)
* The Eagles have a strong home-field advantage at Lincoln Financial Field, and their crowd might be able to energize their team to a win. (Strength: 6)
* The Eagles' head coach, Nick Sirianni, has been making adjustments to their game plan, which might give them an edge over the Commanders. (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, it seems that the Eagles have a slight edge due to their strong offense and home-field advantage. However, the Commanders' improving defense and the Eagles' potential fatigue might be a concern.

5. Initial probability: 62

6. Evaluation:
My calculated probability seems reasonable, but I should consider the base rate of the event. In the NFL, upsets are common, and teams often have varying levels of performance throughout the season. I should also consider that the Eagles and Commanders are division rivals, which might lead to a competitive game. However, my initial probability is not excessively confident or not confident enough, as it reflects the uncertainty of the game.

7. Final prediction: *0.625*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.625
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will a candidate not affiliated with the Conservative Party, the Labour Party, or the Liberal Democrats win the Mid-Bedfordshire by-election, which is expected to take place following Nadine Dorries's sudden resignation as the MP for the constituency? This by-election will likely occur before the next general election. The resolution criteria are not applicable for this question. The question will resolve to "yes" if a candidate from outside the three main parties wins the seat, and it will resolve to "no" if a candidate from one of the three main parties wins. If there is no by-election before the next general election, the question will resolve to "N/A".

Reasons why the answer might be no (rated 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Historical trends**: The Conservative Party has traditionally dominated the Mid-Bedfordshire constituency, and the party has a strong presence in the area. (Strength: 4)
2. **Local factors**: The constituency is a safe Conservative seat, and the party is likely to field a strong candidate who will have a significant advantage in the by-election. (Strength: 4)
3. **Lack of opposition**: The Labour Party and Liberal Democrats may not have a strong presence in the constituency, which could make it difficult for a candidate from one of these parties to win. (Strength: 3)
4. **Local politics**: The constituency has a history of electing Conservative MPs, and the party's local organization is likely to be well-established. (Strength: 4)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Disillusionment with the main parties**: There may be a significant number of voters in the constituency who are dissatisfied with the main parties and may be open to voting for a candidate from outside the three main parties. (Strength: 3)
2. **Independent candidates**: The by-election could attract independent candidates who have a strong local profile or a compelling message that resonates with voters. (Strength: 2)
3. **Brexit and politics**: The Brexit debate has led to a fragmentation of the political landscape, and some voters may be looking for alternative options outside the main parties. (Strength: 4)
4. **Local issues**: The by-election could focus on local issues that are not well-represented by the main parties, creating an opportunity for a candidate from outside the three main parties to win. (Strength: 3)

Aggregated considerations:

While the Conservative Party has a strong presence in the constituency, there are factors that could contribute to a candidate from outside the three main parties winning the by-election. The Brexit debate has created an opportunity for alternative voices, and local issues may not be well-represented by the main parties. However, the historical trends and local factors suggest that the Conservative Party is likely to have an advantage.

Initial probability: 20

The initial probability is relatively low, reflecting the historical trends and local factors that favor the Conservative Party. However, the possibility of a candidate from outside the three main parties winning the by-election is not entirely ruled out.

Evaluation of initial probability:

The initial probability may be too low, given the potential for a candidate from outside the three main parties to win the by-election. The Brexit debate and local issues may create an opportunity for alternative voices to emerge. However, the historical trends and local factors suggest that the Conservative Party is likely to have an advantage.

Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the United States House of Representatives elect a new Speaker before October 18th, 2023, following the ousting of Kevin McCarthy on October 3rd, 2023, and the adjournment after the Republican caucus nominated Steve Scalise for Speaker on October 11th, 2023? The original plan was to hold the election on October 11th, but it was postponed. Given the current date is October 12th, and the question's close date is October 19th, we are considering the likelihood of a Speaker being elected before October 18th.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 60%** - The Republican caucus has struggled to come to a consensus on a Speaker, with Kevin McCarthy being ousted and Steve Scalise being nominated but not yet elected. This internal party conflict might hinder the timely election of a new Speaker.
- **Strength: 30%** - The House of Representatives has a history of contentious and drawn-out Speaker elections, which could lead to further delays and potential adjournments.
- **Strength: 10%** - The upcoming deadline of October 18th is not extremely close, and the House might not feel pressured to rush the election, potentially leading to a delayed decision.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 80%** - The House of Representatives typically follows a regular schedule, and with the original plan to hold the Speaker election on October 11th, it's likely that they will stick to their schedule or make up for lost time.
- **Strength: 15%** - The Republican caucus has already nominated a candidate, Steve Scalise, which could indicate that they are close to a decision and might elect a new Speaker soon.
- **Strength: 5%** - The House of Representatives has the power to elect a Speaker at any time, and they might choose to do so before the October 18th deadline.

4. Aggregated considerations:
The House of Representatives has a history of contentious Speaker elections, but they also tend to follow their schedule. The nomination of Steve Scalise indicates some progress, but the conflict within the Republican caucus remains a significant obstacle. Considering these factors, I would rate the likelihood of a new Speaker being elected before October 18th as moderate.

5. Initial probability: 40%

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 40% seems reasonable, considering the conflicting factors. However, it might be slightly too low, as the House of Representatives often finds ways to resolve their internal conflicts. On the other hand, the probability might be too high, given the history of contentious Speaker elections.

7. Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Inter Miami make the MLS 2023 playoffs by the end of the regular season, which concludes on October 7, 2023, given the current date is June 17, 2023, and considering the team's performance, schedule, and other factors that may influence their chances?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 6/10** Inter Miami has a relatively new team, and it may take time for them to establish a strong foundation and chemistry among their players. This could hinder their performance in the latter part of the season.
- **Strength: 4/10** Inter Miami has had a mixed performance in their previous matches, with some impressive wins but also some disappointing losses. This inconsistency might make it challenging for them to maintain a high level of performance throughout the season.
- **Strength: 3/10** The MLS is a competitive league with many strong teams, and Inter Miami may struggle to compete with established teams like LA Galaxy, Seattle Sounders, or NYCFC, which could limit their chances of making the playoffs.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 8/10** Inter Miami has some talented players, including Lionel Messi, who has the potential to significantly impact the team's performance and lead them to victories.
- **Strength: 7/10** The team has a relatively favorable schedule in the second half of the season, which could give them an opportunity to accumulate more points and make a strong push for the playoffs.
- **Strength: 5/10** Inter Miami has shown improvement in their performance over time, and if they can maintain this trend, they may be able to secure a spot in the playoffs.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that Inter Miami has a decent chance of making the MLS 2023 playoffs, but there are also some concerns that might hinder their performance. The presence of Lionel Messi is a significant advantage, but the team's inconsistency and the competitiveness of the league are potential drawbacks.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Thoughts on confidence and base rate:
My initial probability of 60 seems relatively moderate, considering the reasons provided. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of teams making the playoffs in the MLS. In recent years, around 7-8 teams have made the playoffs, which means that Inter Miami has a decent chance of making it, but it's not a guaranteed outcome. Additionally, the fact that the question is asked in June, with the season still in progress, means that there's still a significant amount of time for Inter Miami to improve or decline.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Green Bay Packers defeat the Chicago Bears in their NFL Week 18 game on January 5, 2024, at Lambeau Field, which is scheduled to start at 10:00 PST? This prediction will be based on the team's performance and various factors such as their recent wins, losses, and overall performance throughout the season. The game's resolution criteria state that if the game ends in a tie, the answer will be NO, and if the game does not have a winner, it will be N/A.

2. Reasons why the answer might be NO (rated from 1 to 10 for strength):
- The Green Bay Packers have had inconsistent performances throughout the season, which might affect their chances of winning. (Strength: 6)
- The Chicago Bears have shown improvements in their team, potentially making them a stronger opponent. (Strength: 7)
- Injuries to key players can significantly impact a team's chances of winning, and the Packers might be dealing with injuries. (Strength: 8)
- The Packers have had a tough schedule in recent weeks, which might have taken a toll on their performance. (Strength: 5)

3. Reasons why the answer might be YES (rated from 1 to 10 for strength):
- The Packers have a strong home-field advantage at Lambeau Field, which can give them a significant boost in morale and performance. (Strength: 9)
- The Packers have a well-established quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, who has a history of performing well in high-pressure situations. (Strength: 8)
- The Bears might struggle with consistency, which could give the Packers an opportunity to capitalize on their mistakes. (Strength: 6)
- The Packers have a strong team defense, which could help them contain the Bears' offense. (Strength: 7)

4. Aggregated considerations: 
Considering the reasons for both a YES and NO answer, the Packers' home-field advantage and strong quarterback play are significant strengths. However, their inconsistent performances and potential injuries are significant weaknesses. The Bears' improvements and potential for inconsistency also make them a challenging opponent.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation: 
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the balanced strengths and weaknesses of both teams. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of NFL games, which is around 50%. This means that the Packers have a slight advantage, but it's not a guarantee. Additionally, the Packers' inconsistent performances and potential injuries might affect their chances.

7. Final prediction: *0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the game against the Baltimore Ravens on October 29, 2023, at State Farm Stadium at 13:25 PDT? The game outcome is crucial, and any result other than an Arizona Cardinals win will resolve to NO. A game ending in a tie or not having a clear winner (e.g., Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve to N/A. Given the current date is September 11, 2023, we have some time to analyze the teams' performance and make an informed prediction. The question will close on October 30, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be NO (rated from 1 to 10 for strength):
- The Ravens have a strong defense, which could limit the Cardinals' scoring opportunities (Strength: 8).
- Lamar Jackson, the Ravens' quarterback, has a history of performing well against tough opponents (Strength: 6).
- The Cardinals have struggled with injuries to key players, which might impact their performance (Strength: 5).
- The Ravens have a more experienced coaching staff, which could give them an edge (Strength: 4).

3. Reasons why the answer might be YES (rated from 1 to 10 for strength):
- The Cardinals have a strong offense led by Kyler Murray, who has shown the ability to make plays (Strength: 9).
- The Cardinals have a solid home-field advantage at State Farm Stadium (Strength: 7).
- The Ravens have been inconsistent this season, which could lead to a letdown performance (Strength: 6).
- The Cardinals' defense has shown improvement in recent games, which could help them contain the Ravens' offense (Strength: 5).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the balance of power seems to be relatively even. However, the Cardinals' strong offense and home-field advantage might give them a slight edge. On the other hand, the Ravens' defense and experience could pose a challenge. Given the time left before the game, it's essential to monitor the teams' performances and any injuries that might impact the outcome.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of the Cardinals winning at around 55%.

6. Evaluation and adjustment:
Considering the initial probability, it seems relatively balanced. However, it's essential to remember that the NFL is known for its unpredictability. The Ravens' inconsistency and the Cardinals' injury concerns might impact the outcome. Additionally, the base rate of the event (a team winning a single game) is relatively high, which should be considered when evaluating the probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.57*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.57
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Manon Fiorot emerge victorious in her fight against Rose Namajunas at the scheduled UFC event in Paris, France on September 2nd, 2023? If Manon Fiorot wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Rose Namajunas wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength of each reason):
- Rose Namajunas has experience fighting at the top level in the UFC, having held the women's strawweight title. Her experience and skillset might give her an edge over Manon Fiorot. (Strength: 6/10)
- Rose Namajunas has a strong wrestling background, which could be an advantage in a fight against Manon Fiorot, who might rely more on striking. (Strength: 5/10)
- Manon Fiorot might struggle to adapt to Rose Namajunas's fighting style, which could lead to a loss. (Strength: 4/10)
- The pressure of fighting in front of a home crowd in Paris might affect Manon Fiorot's performance, making her more likely to lose. (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength of each reason):
- Manon Fiorot has shown impressive skills and victories in the UFC, which could indicate her ability to compete with top-level opponents. (Strength: 7/10)
- Manon Fiorot has a strong striking game, which could be an advantage against Rose Namajunas, who might struggle to defend against a skilled striker. (Strength: 6/10)
- Manon Fiorot's recent performances have been promising, suggesting she is on an upward trajectory and could potentially beat Rose Namajunas. (Strength: 5/10)
- The home crowd advantage in Paris could give Manon Fiorot an emotional boost, helping her perform better than expected. (Strength: 4/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, I weigh the strengths of each reason. The reasons for a yes answer seem slightly stronger, with Manon Fiorot's skills and recent performances giving her an edge. However, Rose Namajunas's experience and wrestling background are significant factors that could swing the fight in her favor.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of Manon Fiorot beating Rose Namajunas at 62%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability might be slightly too confident, as it's difficult to accurately predict the outcome of a fight, especially given the factors mentioned. I should consider the base rate of the event (i.e., the overall win rate of Manon Fiorot in the UFC) and the specific context of the fight, including the location and the fighters' recent performances.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the uncertainty and the factors that could influence the outcome, I will slightly adjust my initial probability to account for the base rate and the context of the fight. My final prediction is *0.57*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.57
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Chicago Bears defeat the Carolina Panthers in their Week 10 NFL game at Soldier Field on November 9, 2023, at 5:15 PST, with a game ending in a tie resolving as "NO" and a game without a winner resolving as "N/A"? Considering all available information up to September 20, 2023, what is the likelihood of the Bears winning the game?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* The Carolina Panthers have shown improvement in their team performance and have a strong offense, which could give them an advantage over the Bears (strength: 4).
* The Bears have struggled with injuries to key players and have been inconsistent throughout the season, which could impact their performance (strength: 4).
* The Panthers have a strong home record, but since the game is at Soldier Field, this advantage is neutralized (strength: 2).
* The Bears' defense has been vulnerable to high-powered offenses, and the Panthers' offense could exploit this weakness (strength: 4).
* The Panthers have a strong quarterback in their lineup, which could give them an edge over the Bears (strength: 5).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* The Bears have a strong defense that could limit the Panthers' scoring opportunities (strength: 4).
* The Bears have a solid running game, which could help them control the clock and limit the Panthers' possessions (strength: 3).
* The Panthers have struggled with injuries to key players, which could impact their performance (strength: 4).
* The Bears have a strong home-field advantage at Soldier Field, which could give them a boost (strength: 3).
* The Bears have a good chance of forcing turnovers, which could swing the game in their favor (strength: 4).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Panthers' strong offense and quarterback, and the Bears' inconsistent performance and injuries, it's a close game. However, the Bears' strong defense and home-field advantage could give them an edge. The Panthers' injuries and the Bears' ability to force turnovers could also impact the game.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident. The Panthers' strong offense and quarterback could give them an edge, and the Bears' injuries and inconsistent performance are significant concerns. However, the Bears' strong defense and home-field advantage could still give them a chance to win. Considering the base rate of NFL games, which is around 50% for the home team, the probability might be slightly too high.

7. Final prediction: *0.52*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.52
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Amanda Lemos win the UFC Strawweight Championship against Zhang Weili at UFC 292 on August 19th, 2023, in Boston, USA?

Given the information provided, this question is focused on predicting the outcome of a specific fight. To better answer this question, we should consider the following factors:
- Amanda Lemos' performance in previous fights, particularly in the UFC.
- Zhang Weili's performance in previous fights, including her title defenses.
- The skills and fighting styles of both fighters, including their strengths and weaknesses.
- Any relevant injuries or health concerns that might impact their performance.
- The context of the fight, including the location and any potential home-field advantage.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- Zhang Weili is the current champion and has a strong record in the UFC, with a high level of experience in title fights. (Strength: 4)
- Zhang Weili has previously defeated several top-ranked opponents, including Joanna Jedrzejczyk. (Strength: 4)
- Amanda Lemos may struggle to match Zhang Weili's speed and aggression in the fight. (Strength: 3)
- Zhang Weili has a strong chin and has shown resilience in past fights, which could help her withstand Lemos' attacks. (Strength: 3)
- Amanda Lemos may be a bit of an underdog in this fight, which could affect her confidence and performance. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- Amanda Lemos has shown impressive knockout power in her previous fights, which could be a game-changer in this bout. (Strength: 5)
- Lemos has a strong wrestling background, which could help her take the fight to the ground and potentially submit Zhang Weili. (Strength: 4)
- Amanda Lemos has been on a winning streak in the UFC, which could indicate a high level of confidence and momentum. (Strength: 3)
- Zhang Weili may be vulnerable to a strong striker like Lemos, who has shown the ability to finish fights with strikes. (Strength: 3)
- Amanda Lemos has a strong motivation to win the title, which could drive her to perform at her best. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both fighters, as well as the context of the fight, it seems that Zhang Weili's experience and skillset give her an initial advantage. However, Amanda Lemos' knockout power and wrestling background make her a formidable opponent. The outcome of the fight is difficult to predict, but it seems that Zhang Weili's experience and skills may give her a slight edge.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Amanda Lemos beating Zhang Weili at UFC 292 to be around 30%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 30% may be a bit low, considering that Amanda Lemos has a strong record and has shown the ability to finish fights with strikes. However, Zhang Weili's experience and skillset give her a significant advantage, which should not be underestimated. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of a fighter winning a title fight) is difficult to estimate, but it is likely to be relatively low.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Minnesota Vikings beat the Detroit Lions in their Week 16 NFL game on December 24, 2023, at U.S. Bank Stadium, starting at 10:00 PST, given that a game ending in a tie will resolve the question as "NO" and any other type of game without a winner will resolve as "N/A"?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Vikings have had inconsistent performances throughout the season, which might affect their ability to secure a win (Strength: 3)
- Detroit Lions have shown potential in recent games, and their offense might be able to challenge the Vikings' defense (Strength: 4)
- The Lions have a decent home record, and playing at U.S. Bank Stadium might not provide a significant home-field advantage for the Vikings (Strength: 2)
- Injuries to key players on the Vikings' roster could impact their performance (Strength: 3)
- The Lions' defense has shown improvements in recent games, which might make it harder for the Vikings to score (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Vikings have a strong home record at U.S. Bank Stadium, which could give them an advantage (Strength: 4)
- The Vikings have a more experienced and consistent quarterback compared to the Lions (Strength: 5)
- The Vikings have a well-rounded team with a strong offense and defense, which could help them secure a win (Strength: 5)
- The Lions have struggled with consistency throughout the season, which might affect their ability to win (Strength: 3)
- The Vikings have a better overall record than the Lions, which could give them an edge (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations: 
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Vikings' home-field advantage, and the Lions' recent improvements, it seems that the Vikings have a slight edge in this game. However, the Lions' potential to challenge the Vikings' defense and their own improvements make this a closer game than initially expected.

5. Initial probability: 62

6. Evaluation of initial probability: 
The initial probability seems to be a reasonable estimate, considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. However, it might be slightly too confident, as there are several factors that could affect the outcome of the game. The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of the Vikings beating the Lions) is not explicitly stated, but it's essential to consider that NFL games are often closely contested and unpredictable.

7. Final prediction: *0.58*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.58
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Volkan Oezdemir emerge victorious in his upcoming fight against Bogdan Guskov on September 2nd, 2023, at the UFC event in Paris, France? If Volkan Oezdemir wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Bogdan Guskov wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A. I will consider various factors such as the fighters' past performances, skills, and any relevant injuries or circumstances that may affect the outcome of the fight.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (NO):

- **Reason 1: Bogdan Guskov's recent performance and experience (Strength: 6/10)**: Although I don't have specific information on Bogdan Guskov's recent performance, it's possible that he has been improving and gaining experience in the UFC, which could give him an edge over Volkan Oezdemir.
- **Reason 2: Volkan Oezdemir's inconsistent performance (Strength: 7/10)**: Volkan Oezdemir has had a mixed record in the UFC, with some impressive wins but also some losses. This inconsistency may make it difficult to predict his performance in this fight.
- **Reason 3: Home advantage for Bogdan Guskov (Strength: 4/10)**: Although the fight is taking place in Paris, France, it's not a significant advantage for Bogdan Guskov, as Volkan Oezdemir is a well-traveled fighter and may not be significantly affected by the home crowd.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (YES):

- **Reason 1: Volkan Oezdemir's experience and skill (Strength: 9/10)**: Volkan Oezdemir is a well-established fighter with a strong record in the UFC, including a stint as the interim light heavyweight champion. He has the skills and experience to take down Bogdan Guskov.
- **Reason 2: Volkan Oezdemir's recent performance (Strength: 8/10)**: Although I don't have specific information on Volkan Oezdemir's recent performance, it's possible that he has been training hard and is looking to bounce back from any previous losses.
- **Reason 3: Bogdan Guskov's relatively unknown status (Strength: 5/10)**: Bogdan Guskov is not a well-known fighter, which may make it difficult for him to match the level of Volkan Oezdemir's experience and skill.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, I think that Volkan Oezdemir's experience and skill give him a significant advantage over Bogdan Guskov. However, Bogdan Guskov's potential improvement and home advantage may give him a slight chance. Volkan Oezdemir's inconsistent performance is also a concern. Overall, I think Volkan Oezdemir has a slight edge, but it's not a guaranteed win.

5. Initial probability: 62

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 62 seems reasonable, as it reflects the uncertainty surrounding the fight. However, I may have underestimated the potential impact of Bogdan Guskov's home advantage and his potential improvement. I should also consider the base rate of the event, which is a UFC fight, and the fact that Volkan Oezdemir is a well-established fighter.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Ciryl Gane defeat Serghei Spivac in their upcoming UFC fight scheduled for September 2nd, 2023, in Paris, France? If Ciryl Gane wins the fight, this market will resolve to YES. If Serghei Spivac wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.

2. Reasons why the answer might be NO (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

   a. Serghei Spivac has a significant striking advantage, which could allow him to counter Ciryl Gane's wrestling attacks (Strength: 3).
   b. Serghei Spivac has shown resilience in his previous fights, bouncing back from adversity, which might make him a more formidable opponent (Strength: 2).
   c. Ciryl Gane's wrestling skills might be neutralized if Serghei Spivac is able to take the fight to the ground (Strength: 4).
   d. Serghei Spivac's experience in the heavyweight division could give him an edge over Ciryl Gane (Strength: 3).

3. Reasons why the answer might be YES (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

   a. Ciryl Gane has a significant advantage in wrestling, which could allow him to take the fight to the ground and control Serghei Spivac (Strength: 5).
   b. Ciryl Gane has shown impressive power in his previous fights, which could lead to a knockout or TKO victory (Strength: 4).
   c. Ciryl Gane's experience in the heavyweight division is comparable to Serghei Spivac's, which could neutralize any potential advantage (Strength: 3).
   d. Ciryl Gane has been training in various martial arts disciplines, including Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Muay Thai, which could give him an edge in the fight (Strength: 4).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the advantages and disadvantages of both fighters are relatively evenly matched. However, Ciryl Gane's wrestling skills and power in his previous fights give him a slight edge. Additionally, Serghei Spivac's resilience and striking advantage could make the fight competitive, but ultimately, Ciryl Gane's well-rounded skills might be too much for him.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would initially predict that Ciryl Gane will defeat Serghei Spivac with a probability of 65.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 65% seems relatively confident, but considering the competitive nature of the fight and the evenly matched advantages and disadvantages of both fighters, it might be slightly too confident. However, without more information or data, it's difficult to adjust the probability significantly.

7. Final prediction:
*0.6*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the National Football League (NFL) game against the San Francisco 49ers on October 23, 2023, at U.S. Bank Stadium, with a scheduled start time of 17:15 PDT? Given that a game ending in a tie will resolve to "NO" and a game without a winner will resolve to "N/A," what is the likelihood that the Minnesota Vikings will emerge victorious in this matchup?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-10 for strength):
- The San Francisco 49ers have a strong defense, which could potentially limit the Vikings' scoring opportunities (Strength: 8/10).
- The Vikings have struggled with injuries to key players in the past, which might affect their performance (Strength: 6/10).
- The 49ers have a more experienced quarterback, which could give them an advantage (Strength: 7/10).
- The Vikings might be facing a tough schedule, which could affect their momentum going into this game (Strength: 5/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-10 for strength):
- The Vikings have a strong offense, which could allow them to put up a high number of points (Strength: 9/10).
- The Vikings have a solid home-field advantage at U.S. Bank Stadium, which could boost their performance (Strength: 8/10).
- The 49ers have struggled with consistency this season, which might affect their ability to perform well (Strength: 6/10).
- The Vikings have a strong running game, which could help them control the clock and limit the 49ers' scoring opportunities (Strength: 7/10).

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, it seems that the Vikings have a slight advantage, but the 49ers' strong defense and experience could make this a competitive game. The home-field advantage and Vikings' strong offense are significant factors, but the 49ers' consistency issues and Vikings' injury concerns could impact the outcome.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of initial probability: The initial probability seems relatively moderate, considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of NFL games, which is roughly 50% chance of the home team winning. This might make the initial probability slightly too low.

7. Final prediction: *0.58*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.58
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Los Angeles Rams defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers in their NFL Week 7 game on October 22, 2023, at SoFi Stadium, given the current date is September 11, 2023, and the game's resolution criteria specify that a tie will result in a "NO" outcome and a game without a winner will result in an "N/A" outcome?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The Pittsburgh Steelers have a strong defense and have historically been able to contain strong offenses. (Strength: 4)
- The Steelers have a more consistent quarterback in Kenny Pickett compared to the Rams' Matthew Stafford, who has struggled with injuries in the past. (Strength: 3)
- The Rams are coming off a tough schedule and might be fatigued, while the Steelers are on a relatively easier schedule. (Strength: 2)
- The Steelers have a strong running game, which could help control the clock and limit the Rams' opportunities. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The Rams have a more explosive offense with Cooper Kupp and other talented receivers, which could outscore the Steelers. (Strength: 5)
- The Rams have a strong defensive line that can pressure the Steelers' quarterback and disrupt their offense. (Strength: 4)
- The Rams have a more experienced head coach in Sean McVay compared to the Steelers' Mike Tomlin. (Strength: 3)
- The Rams have a strong home-field advantage at SoFi Stadium, which could give them an edge in the game. (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Rams' explosive offense and strong defensive line give them an initial advantage. However, the Steelers' strong defense and running game could potentially neutralize the Rams' offense. The Rams' home-field advantage and experience of their head coach also give them an edge. Overall, the Rams seem to have a slight advantage, but the Steelers' defense and running game make this a competitive matchup.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the Rams' chances of beating the Steelers at around 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon further reflection, I realize that my initial probability might be too high. The Steelers' strong defense and running game give them a significant chance of winning or at least keeping the game close. Additionally, the Rams' inconsistent quarterback play and tough schedule could affect their performance. Considering these factors, I might need to adjust my initial probability downward.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Tony Ferguson win the fight against Bobby Green at UFC 291 on July 29th, 2023, in Salt Lake City, Utah? If Tony Ferguson wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Bobby Green wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A. I will consider various factors, including the fighters' past performances, current form, fighting styles, and any relevant injuries or other factors that may impact the outcome of the fight.

2. Reasons why the answer might be NO (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is a weak reason and 5 is a strong reason):

- Reason 1: Bobby Green's recent performances have been inconsistent, but he has shown resilience and can adapt to different fighting styles (Strength: 3)
- Reason 2: Green has a background in wrestling, which could give him an advantage on the ground and potentially neutralize Ferguson's striking (Strength: 4)
- Reason 3: Green has faced and defeated several top-level opponents, including Rafael Fiziev and Jim Miller (Strength: 4)
- Reason 4: Ferguson has been dealing with injuries and has not fought in over a year, which may affect his performance (Strength: 3)
- Reason 5: Green's aggressive fighting style might be able to push Ferguson back and limit his opportunities to land significant strikes (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be YES (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is a weak reason and 5 is a strong reason):

- Reason 1: Tony Ferguson is a former interim lightweight champion with a strong background in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and wrestling (Strength: 5)
- Reason 2: Ferguson has shown the ability to finish fights with his striking and submissions (Strength: 4)
- Reason 3: Ferguson's experience in the UFC and his ability to perform under pressure could give him an edge over Green (Strength: 4)
- Reason 4: Ferguson's reach and striking ability might allow him to keep Green at a distance and land significant strikes (Strength: 3)
- Reason 5: Ferguson has a strong record against top-level opponents, including Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a YES and NO outcome, I believe that Tony Ferguson's experience, skillset, and past performances give him an advantage over Bobby Green. However, Green's resilience, wrestling background, and ability to adapt to different fighting styles make him a formidable opponent. The fact that Ferguson has been dealing with injuries and has not fought in over a year is a concern, but it is not a decisive factor.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of Tony Ferguson winning the fight at 60%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, but it might be too high considering the factors that could affect Ferguson's performance, such as his injuries and lack of recent fighting experience. Additionally, the base rate of fighters winning their first fight back after a long layoff is generally lower than the base rate of fighters winning overall.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Baltimore Ravens defeat the Seattle Seahawks in their Week 9 NFL game scheduled for November 5, 2023, at M&T Bank Stadium at 10:00 PST? The resolution criteria state that the game must have a clear winner; a tie or a game without a winner (e.g., Bills-Bengals in 2022) will result in a "N/A" answer. Given the information provided, I will consider the teams' current performances, their head-to-head history, and any other relevant factors to make an informed prediction.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Ravens' inconsistent defense, which has struggled to contain strong offenses this season, might be vulnerable to the Seahawks' high-powered attack. (Strength: 3)
- The Seahawks have a relatively strong home record, and playing at M&T Bank Stadium might not be a significant advantage for the Ravens. (Strength: 2)
- Lamar Jackson, the Ravens' quarterback, has been dealing with injuries and might not be at full strength, which could impact the team's performance. (Strength: 4)
- The Seahawks have a decent record and have shown resilience in close games, which might help them stay competitive against the Ravens. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Ravens have a strong overall record and a top-ranked offense, which could give them an edge in this matchup. (Strength: 5)
- The Seahawks have struggled against top-tier defenses this season, and the Ravens have a solid defense that could exploit their weaknesses. (Strength: 4)
- Lamar Jackson has a history of performing well in big games, and if he's healthy, he could lead the Ravens to a victory. (Strength: 4)
- The Ravens have a strong home record, and playing at M&T Bank Stadium might give them an advantage in terms of crowd support and familiarity with the environment. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I will weigh the strengths of each point. The Ravens' strong offense and potential for a home-field advantage are significant advantages, while the Seahawks' strong home record and the Ravens' defensive struggles might be countered by the Ravens' overall record and Lamar Jackson's past performances in big games.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would initially predict a 62% chance that the Ravens will beat the Seahawks.

6. Evaluation and refinement:
Upon further consideration, I realize that my initial probability might be too high, given the Ravens' defensive struggles and the Seahawks' resilience in close games. I also consider the base rate of NFL games, which is roughly 50-50. Taking these factors into account, I might adjust my probability downward to reflect a more nuanced assessment of the matchup.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the NFL game against the Los Angeles Chargers on October 22, 2023, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, which starts at 13:25 PDT? This prediction is contingent on the game not ending in a tie and not having any unresolved outcome, such as the 2022 Bills-Bengals game. The resolution criteria for this question are not applicable.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

   - The Kansas City Chiefs have a strong offense, but their defense has been inconsistent, which might allow the Chargers to score enough points to win (Strength: 6/10).
   - The Chargers have been improving their team performance, and their quarterback, Justin Herbert, has shown significant growth (Strength: 7/10).
   - The game is taking place at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, which is considered a challenging environment for visiting teams (Strength: 8/10).
   - Injuries or other unforeseen circumstances might affect the Chiefs' performance (Strength: 4/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

   - The Kansas City Chiefs have a strong offense, led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is a highly skilled and experienced player (Strength: 9/10).
   - The Chiefs have a solid team record and a strong home-field advantage (Strength: 8/10).
   - The Chargers have struggled on the road, which might give the Chiefs an advantage (Strength: 7/10).
   - The Chiefs' coaching staff and team dynamics are well-established, which could provide an edge in critical situations (Strength: 6/10).

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the reasons above, the Kansas City Chiefs have several advantages, including a strong offense, home-field advantage, and a well-established coaching staff. However, the Chargers have been improving, and their quarterback has shown growth. The inconsistent defense of the Chiefs and the challenging environment of GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium are also factors to consider.

5. Initial probability: 65

6. Evaluation: The initial probability of 65 seems reasonable, considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. However, it might be slightly on the conservative side, as the Chiefs have a strong home-field advantage and a more established team. The base rate of the event (a team winning at home in the NFL) is around 60-70%, which might also influence the prediction.

7. Final prediction: *0.68*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.68
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the next Speaker of the House be someone other than Kevin McCarthy, Tom Emmer, Patrick McHenry, Hakeem Jeffries, Jim Jordan, or Steve Scalise? The market resolves YES if anyone other than these six individuals is the next Speaker of the House. It resolves NO if one of the six individuals is the next Speaker. The question is to be resolved by October 25, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Republican Party holds a narrow majority in the House, and these six individuals are all prominent members of the party. This suggests that one of them might have a strong claim to the Speakership (Strength: 4).
- Kevin McCarthy has been a strong contender for the Speakership in the past and has a good relationship with the Republican leadership (Strength: 4).
- The Republican Party often selects its Speaker from within its own ranks, and these six individuals are all well-established members (Strength: 4).
- The House Republican leadership has a history of sticking with their own, and these six individuals have all been part of the leadership team in the past (Strength: 4).
- The lack of a clear alternative to these six individuals might make it difficult for someone outside the group to emerge as a viable candidate (Strength: 3).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Republican Party has a history of internal conflicts and power struggles, which could lead to an unexpected candidate emerging as the next Speaker (Strength: 4).
- The narrow Republican majority in the House creates an opportunity for a dark horse candidate to emerge and win the Speakership (Strength: 4).
- The unpredictability of the Speaker's election process and the potential for last-minute alliances or defections could lead to an unexpected outcome (Strength: 4).
- Some of the six individuals mentioned might face challenges or controversies that could damage their chances of becoming Speaker (Strength: 3).
- The possibility of a compromise candidate or a coalition building among different factions within the Republican Party could lead to an unexpected outcome (Strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the factors mentioned above, it seems that the likelihood of someone outside the six individuals mentioned becoming the next Speaker of the House is not extremely low, but it's also not extremely high. The Republican Party's tendency to select its Speaker from within its own ranks and the strong contenders among the six individuals make it less likely for an outsider to emerge. However, the history of internal conflicts and power struggles within the party, the narrow majority, and the unpredictability of the election process create an opportunity for an unexpected outcome.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of someone outside the six individuals mentioned becoming the next Speaker of the House as 20.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 20 seems relatively low, considering the potential for internal conflicts and power struggles within the Republican Party. However, the party's history of selecting its Speaker from within its own ranks and the strong contenders among the six individuals mentioned suggest that an outsider might face significant challenges. The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of someone outside the six individuals becoming Speaker) is difficult to estimate, but it's likely to be low given the party's history.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the closing price of Bitcoin (BTC) on September 30th be higher than its opening price on September 1st, given its opening price on September 1st was $25,927? Considering the timeframe from September 1st to September 30th, what are the factors that might influence the price movement of Bitcoin, and how do these factors impact the likelihood of the closing price being higher than the opening price?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- **Market volatility**: Bitcoin's price can fluctuate rapidly due to various market and economic factors, which might cause the closing price to be lower than the opening price. (Strength: 8)
- **Global economic uncertainty**: Economic downturns, interest rate hikes, or other global events can negatively impact the price of Bitcoin. (Strength: 6)
- **Regulatory changes**: Changes in regulations or laws affecting cryptocurrencies can lead to a decline in the price. (Strength: 4)
- **Technical analysis indicators**: If technical analysis indicators, such as moving averages or RSI, suggest a downtrend, it could indicate a lower closing price. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- **Investor sentiment**: Positive investor sentiment, increased adoption, or a growing interest in cryptocurrencies can drive the price up. (Strength: 7)
- **Institutional investment**: Increased investment from institutional investors can lead to a price increase. (Strength: 6)
- **Technological advancements**: Improvements in blockchain technology, scalability, or usability can boost investor confidence and drive the price up. (Strength: 5)
- **Seasonal trends**: Historically, Bitcoin's price has shown an upward trend during the second half of the year. (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the factors mentioned above, the overall trend seems to be leaning towards a higher closing price. However, the strength of the reasons for a higher price (7, 6, 5, and 4) is not as strong as the reasons for a lower price (8, 6, and 4). The market volatility factor is a significant concern, which might outweigh the positive factors.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the initial probability of the closing price being higher than the opening price as 45.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems to be relatively low, considering the historical trend of Bitcoin's price increasing during the second half of the year. However, the market volatility factor is a significant concern, and the strength of the reasons for a lower price is relatively high. This might suggest that the initial probability is not excessively confident.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Indianapolis Colts beat the Cleveland Browns in their Week 7 game at Lucas Oil Stadium on October 22, 2023, at 10:00 PDT? A game ending in a tie will result in a "NO" answer, while a game that does not have a clear winner (e.g., due to weather conditions or other unforeseen circumstances) will result in an "N/A" answer. I will consider the teams' past performances, current form, and any other relevant factors to make an informed prediction.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength of each reason in parentheses):
- The Cleveland Browns have a strong defense that might be able to contain the Indianapolis Colts' offense (8/10). 
- The Colts have struggled with injuries to key players in the past, which could impact their performance (6/10).
- The Browns have a solid home record and might gain an advantage from playing at Lucas Oil Stadium (7/10).
- The Colts' quarterback might not be able to perform well against the Browns' defense (7/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength of each reason in parentheses):
- The Indianapolis Colts have a strong offense, which could lead to a high-scoring game and potentially a win (9/10).
- The Browns have struggled with consistency in their performance this season (8/10).
- The Colts' running back has been performing well, which could help the team gain an advantage on the ground (8/10).
- The Colts have a strong coaching staff that could help them adjust their strategy to counter the Browns' defense (6/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, it seems that the Colts have a slight advantage due to their strong offense. However, the Browns' defense and home field advantage could make the game competitive. The Colts' injuries and quarterback performance are also factors to consider.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of the Colts beating the Browns as 62.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability seems to be moderately confident, but I may not have considered the full range of factors that could influence the game. For example, I might have underestimated the impact of the Browns' home field advantage or overestimated the Colts' offense. Additionally, the base rate of the Colts beating the Browns in this specific game is not provided, which could be an important consideration.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers defeat the Jacksonville Jaguars in their Week 8 NFL game on October 29, 2023, at Acrisure Stadium, starting at 10:00 PDT, resulting in a definitive win for the Steelers? If the game ends in a tie or does not have a winner, the answer will be 'Not Applicable/Available.'

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The Steelers have had inconsistent performances this season, which might affect their ability to secure a win. (Strength: 3)
- Jacksonville has shown potential as a competitive team, and their defense might be able to contain the Steelers' offense. (Strength: 4)
- The Jaguars have a strong running game, which could give the Steelers' defense trouble. (Strength: 3)
- The Steelers might struggle with their passing game, allowing the Jaguars to capitalize on turnovers and gain an advantage. (Strength: 2)
- Jacksonville has been improving throughout the season and might be due for a big win. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The Steelers have a strong defense that could shut down the Jaguars' offense. (Strength: 5)
- Pittsburgh's quarterback, Kenny Pickett, has shown improvement in recent games and might be able to lead the team to a win. (Strength: 3)
- The Steelers have a solid running game that could control the clock and limit the Jaguars' opportunities. (Strength: 4)
- The Steelers have a home-field advantage at Acrisure Stadium, which could give them a boost in energy and morale. (Strength: 2)
- The Jaguars have struggled with consistency this season, which might affect their ability to secure a win. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, both teams have valid points for and against them. However, the Steelers' strong defense and home-field advantage give them an edge. The Jaguars' potential to capitalize on turnovers and their improving performance throughout the season make them a competitive opponent.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations, I would estimate the Steelers' chance of beating the Jaguars at around 60%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. However, it might be worth considering the base rate of NFL games being close, with many outcomes being influenced by a variety of factors. This might suggest that the actual probability is slightly lower, around 55-58%.

7. Final prediction:
*0.575*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.575
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars defeat the Baltimore Ravens in their NFL Week 15 game at EverBank Stadium on December 17, 2023, at 5:20 PST? A game ending in a tie will resolve as NO, and a game without a clear winner (e.g., due to a tie or other irregularities) will resolve as N/A. Given the current date is September 20, 2023, and the question's resolution criteria, I will assess the likelihood of the Jaguars winning the game based on general knowledge and available information up to this point.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have struggled with consistency throughout the season. (Strength: 3)
- The Baltimore Ravens have a strong defense, which could hinder the Jaguars' offense. (Strength: 4)
- The Ravens have a more experienced quarterback, which might give them an edge. (Strength: 2)
- The Jaguars have faced challenges in away games this season. (Strength: 3)
- The Ravens have a strong home-field advantage. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Jaguars have shown improvement in their offense this season. (Strength: 3)
- The Ravens have struggled with injuries to key players. (Strength: 4)
- The Jaguars have a strong running game, which could exploit the Ravens' defense. (Strength: 3)
- The Jaguars have been competitive in recent games. (Strength: 2)
- The Jaguars have a strong team morale, which could give them an edge. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the balance of factors suggests that the game is relatively even. However, the Ravens' strong defense and home-field advantage give them a slight edge. On the other hand, the Jaguars' improvement in offense and strong running game could help them compete. Taking into account the Ravens' injuries and the Jaguars' competitive spirit, the game is likely to be closely contested.

5. Initial probability: 42

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability seems to be somewhat conservative, given the factors that favor the Jaguars. However, considering the Ravens' strong defense and home-field advantage, it's not excessively confident. I should also consider the base rate of NFL games, which tends to favor the home team. This might slightly increase the probability of the Ravens winning.

7. Final prediction: *0.52*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.52
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the LK-99 room temperature, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before the end of October 2023? Specifically, will a new pre-print or publication be submitted to a reputable scientific journal by October 31, 2023, demonstrating that LK-99 exhibits the hallmarks of traditional superconductivity, including the Meissner effect, R = 0 behavior below the critical temperature (Tc) with a resistivity below 10^-11 Ohm*cm, or a phase change consistent with superconductivity, without relying on superconductor-insulator transitions or any modifications to the original synthesis or characterization of LK-99, such as replacing Cu with Au or Ag, or removing impurities like CuS?

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. The original synthesis and characterization of LK-99 were already challenging, and replicating the conditions exactly might be difficult (strength: 4).
2. The superconductivity of LK-99 is still not well understood, and it's unclear if it's a traditional superconductor or exhibits 1D superconductivity in an insulating matrix (strength: 3).
3. The scientific community might be cautious about publishing a pre-print or paper that claims to replicate LK-99's superconductivity due to concerns about the reproducibility of the results (strength: 2).
4. The time frame of October 31, 2023, is relatively short, and researchers might need more time to replicate the results (strength: 2).
5. The original papers might have been flawed or incorrect, and the superconductivity of LK-99 might not be replicable (strength: 1).

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. The original papers reported convincing evidence of superconductivity in LK-99, including a phase change and decreasing resistivity with temperature (strength: 4).
2. The synthesis and characterization of LK-99 have been described in detail, making it possible for other researchers to replicate the results (strength: 4).
3. The scientific community is eager to understand the superconductivity of LK-99, and researchers might be motivated to replicate the results (strength: 3).
4. The development of new synthesis methods or materials might facilitate the replication of LK-99's superconductivity (strength: 2).
5. The pre-print and companion paper provide a clear description of the synthesis and characterization of LK-99, making it easier for other researchers to replicate the results (strength: 2).

Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, I think the likelihood of replicating LK-99's superconductivity before October 31, 2023, is moderate. The original papers reported convincing evidence of superconductivity, and the synthesis and characterization of LK-99 have been described in detail. However, the superconductivity of LK-99 is still not well understood, and the scientific community might be cautious about publishing a pre-print or paper that claims to replicate the results.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of the calculated probability:

My initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, but it might be too low. The original papers reported convincing evidence of superconductivity, and the scientific community is eager to understand the superconductivity of LK-99. Additionally, the development of new synthesis methods or materials might facilitate the replication of LK-99's superconductivity.

Final prediction: *0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the #3-ranked Texas Longhorns defeat the #2-ranked Washington Huskies in the 2023 College Football Playoff (CFP) Semifinal Sugar Bowl, which is scheduled to take place in January 2024? Considering the teams' rankings, their past performances, and potential team dynamics, what are the chances that Texas will emerge victorious?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rating the strength of each reason from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- **Washington's strong defense**: Washington has a solid defense that has consistently ranked high in the nation, which could pose a significant challenge to Texas's offense. (Strength: 8)
- **Texas's inconsistency**: Texas has shown inconsistency in their performances throughout the season, which might affect their ability to maintain a high level of play in a high-stakes game. (Strength: 6)
- **Washington's homegrown talent**: Washington has a strong roster with many players who are familiar with the team's system and each other, which could give them an edge in terms of cohesion and teamwork. (Strength: 7)
- **Inexperience in big games**: Texas might not have as much experience playing in high-pressure games like the CFP Semifinal, which could impact their performance under stress. (Strength: 5)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rating the strength of each reason from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- **Texas's strong offense**: Texas has a potent offense that has consistently scored high points throughout the season, which could give them an advantage in a high-scoring game. (Strength: 9)
- **Washington's vulnerability on defense**: While Washington's defense is strong, they have shown some vulnerabilities in certain areas, which Texas might be able to exploit. (Strength: 7)
- **Texas's experience in big games**: While Texas might not have as much experience as some other teams, they have still played in several high-pressure games this season, which could help them prepare for the CFP Semifinal. (Strength: 6)
- **Coaching advantage**: Texas's coach, Steve Sarkisian, has a strong track record of preparing his teams for big games, which could give them an edge in terms of game planning and strategy. (Strength: 8)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, it seems that the game will be closely contested. Washington's strong defense and experience in big games are significant advantages, but Texas's potent offense and coaching experience could give them an edge. However, Texas's inconsistency and inexperience in big games are concerns that might impact their performance.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Texas beating Washington at around 55%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability might be too high, as it doesn't fully account for the significant challenges that Texas faces in terms of experience and consistency. Additionally, the base rate of teams beating a higher-ranked opponent in the CFP Semifinal is relatively low.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will the Atlanta Falcons beat the Minnesota Vikings in their Week 9 NFL game on November 5, 2023, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, starting at 10:00 PST? The resolution of this question depends on the outcome of the game, with a Falcons win resulting in a "yes" answer, a tie resulting in a "no" answer, and a game without a winner resulting in a "N/A" answer.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength of each reason: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

   - The Falcons have struggled with consistency this season, which might impact their performance in this game. (Strength: 3)
   - The Vikings have a strong defense, which could limit the Falcons' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 4)
   - The Falcons might be underprepared for the Vikings' high-powered offense, led by quarterback Kirk Cousins. (Strength: 3)
   - The Vikings have a more experienced team, which could give them an edge in a close game. (Strength: 4)
   - The Falcons have a history of struggling against top teams in the NFL. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength of each reason: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

   - The Falcons have shown flashes of brilliance this season, particularly on offense, which could carry them to a win. (Strength: 4)
   - The Vikings have been inconsistent this season, which might make them vulnerable to an upset. (Strength: 3)
   - The Falcons have a strong home-field advantage at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which could give them a boost. (Strength: 4)
   - The Vikings have struggled on the road this season, which could make it difficult for them to win in Atlanta. (Strength: 3)
   - The Falcons have a talented young quarterback in Desmond Ridder, who could make key plays to secure a win. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, it seems that the Falcons have a decent chance of beating the Vikings. However, the Vikings' strong defense and experience give them an edge. The Falcons' home-field advantage and the Vikings' inconsistency also play a role. Overall, it's a close game, but the Falcons might have a slight advantage.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation: My initial probability might be too confident, considering the close nature of the game and the strengths of both teams. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of the Falcons beating the Vikings) is not explicitly provided, but it's likely low given the Vikings' overall strength. To be more conservative, I should consider a lower probability.

7. Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Buffalo Bills win the NFL game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Highmark Stadium on October 26, 2023, at 17:15 PDT, given the information available up to September 11, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a strong defense and a well-balanced team, which could pose a challenge for the Bills' offense. (Strength: 6/10)
- Josh Allen, the Bills' quarterback, has had inconsistent performances in the past, which might affect the team's chances. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Bills are playing on the road, which could be a disadvantage, especially considering the Buccaneers' home-field advantage. (Strength: 7/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- The Bills have a strong offense led by Josh Allen, which has been performing well this season. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Bills have a solid defense that can contain the Buccaneers' offense, which has struggled in some games this season. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Bills are at home, which could give them an advantage, especially considering their strong fan support. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the home-field advantage, and the performances of key players, the game is likely to be competitive. However, the Bills' strong offense and solid defense might give them an edge.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Bills winning as 62.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 62 seems reasonable, but it might be influenced by the Bills' strong offense. However, it's essential to consider the Buccaneers' defense and the Bills' inconsistent performances in the past. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the Bills winning) is not provided, but it's essential to consider the overall strength of the teams and their past performances.

7. Final prediction:
*0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Denver Broncos defeat the Green Bay Packers in their NFL Week 7 game on October 22, 2023, at Empower Field at Mile High, starting at 13:25 PDT?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strongest to weakest):
- The Green Bay Packers have a strong offense, which could lead to a high-scoring game and potentially favor them. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Denver Broncos might struggle with their passing game, which could be exploited by the Packers' defense. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Packers have a relatively easier schedule leading up to this game, which could help them build momentum. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Broncos have had inconsistent performances this season, which could affect their ability to win a close game. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Packers have a strong quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, who could lead his team to victory. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strongest to weakest):
- The Broncos have a strong defense that could limit the Packers' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 9/10)
- The Broncos have a home-field advantage at Empower Field at Mile High, which could boost their morale and performance. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Broncos have a solid running game, which could help control the clock and wear down the Packers' defense. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Packers have struggled with injuries to key players this season, which could impact their performance. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Broncos have a relatively easy schedule leading up to this game, which could help them build momentum. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Broncos' home-field advantage, and the Packers' injuries, it seems that the game could be a close and competitive matchup. However, the Broncos' strong defense and the Packers' inconsistent performances this season give the Broncos a slight edge.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of the Broncos beating the Packers at 55%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively moderate, considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of NFL games, which is roughly 50%. Given that the Broncos are at home and have a strong defense, the initial probability might be slightly too low. Additionally, the Packers' injuries and inconsistent performances this season might be underemphasized.

7. Final prediction:
*0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Nasdaq Composite index close at or above 13,775 on July 14, 2023, given the current market trends and conditions as of July 10, 2023? This question considers the potential future performance of the Nasdaq Composite index over the next few days, taking into account various factors that may influence stock market movements, such as economic indicators, global events, investor sentiment, and market volatility.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reason 1: Market correction: The stock market can experience sudden corrections due to various factors such as economic downturns, geopolitical tensions, or unexpected events, which could cause the Nasdaq Composite to drop below 13,775. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: Economic indicators: Weak economic indicators, such as declining GDP growth or rising inflation, could negatively impact investor confidence and lead to a decline in the Nasdaq Composite. (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 3: Market volatility: The stock market can be highly volatile, and short-term price movements can be unpredictable, making it challenging to predict the Nasdaq Composite's performance. (Strength: 7/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Reason 1: Bullish sentiment: If investor sentiment remains bullish, and market participants continue to be optimistic about the future, the Nasdaq Composite could continue to rise and potentially close above 13,775. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: Earnings season: If companies report strong earnings and revenue growth, it could boost investor confidence and lead to an increase in the Nasdaq Composite. (Strength: 9/10)
- Reason 3: Central bank policies: If central banks maintain accommodative monetary policies, it could support the stock market and lead to a continued rise in the Nasdaq Composite. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that the factors favoring a rise in the Nasdaq Composite (Reasons 1-3 in step 3) are stronger than those favoring a decline (Reasons 1-3 in step 2). However, market volatility and unpredictable short-term price movements make it challenging to predict the Nasdaq Composite's performance.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would assign an initial probability of 62 to the event that the Nasdaq Composite closes at or above 13,775 on July 14, 2023.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon reviewing my initial probability, I realize it might be slightly too confident, considering the high level of market volatility and the unpredictability of short-term price movements. I should also consider the base rate of the event, which is the likelihood of the Nasdaq Composite closing above 13,775 on any given day. This base rate is likely to be low, as the stock market is subject to various random fluctuations.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Chan Sung Jung (The Korean Zombie) defeat Max Holloway in their upcoming UFC fight scheduled for August 26th, 2023, in Singapore? If Jung wins, the market will resolve to YES. If Holloway wins or the fight ends in a draw, the market will resolve to NO. If the fight is cancelled or declared a No Contest on the night, the market will resolve to N/A. What is the likelihood of Chan Sung Jung winning the fight?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (NO):

- Reason 1: Max Holloway's recent performance: Max Holloway has been performing well in his previous fights, winning the majority of them. He has a strong track record in the UFC and has shown resilience in tough matches. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 2: Jung's age: Chan Sung Jung is 38 years old, which is relatively old for an active UFC fighter. Age can be a factor in determining a fighter's performance, especially in high-intensity sports like MMA. (Strength: 4/10)
- Reason 3: Jung's past losses: Jung has lost to top-tier opponents in the past, including current or former champions. This could indicate that he might struggle against a strong opponent like Holloway. (Strength: 5/10)
- Reason 4: Holloway's experience: Max Holloway has more experience in the UFC and has fought against top-level opponents. This experience could give him an edge over Jung. (Strength: 7/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (YES):

- Reason 1: Jung's striking skills: Chan Sung Jung is known for his aggressive striking style, which has given him an advantage in past fights. He might be able to use this to his advantage against Holloway. (Strength: 8/10)
- Reason 2: Jung's determination: Jung has shown his determination and grit in past fights, often going the distance and pushing his opponents to their limits. This determination could help him stay competitive against Holloway. (Strength: 6/10)
- Reason 3: Holloway's vulnerability: Max Holloway has shown vulnerabilities in his past fights, including being knocked out in a previous bout. Jung might be able to capitalize on these vulnerabilities to secure a win. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that Max Holloway has a slight advantage due to his recent performance, experience, and potential vulnerabilities in Jung's past losses. However, Jung's striking skills and determination could make the fight competitive.

5. Initial probability: 45

6. Evaluation:
Upon re-evaluation, I realize that my initial probability might be too low, considering Jung's skills and determination. However, Holloway's recent performance and experience give him an edge. I should also consider the base rate of the event, which might be around 50% given the unpredictability of MMA fights. This makes my initial probability too low.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Indianapolis Colts win against the Houston Texans in their NFL Week 18 game on January 5, 2024, at Lucas Oil Stadium, starting at 10:00 PST?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- The Houston Texans have a history of competitiveness against the Colts, often making the game close. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Colts may struggle with injuries or player absences, which could impact their performance. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Texans have shown improvements in their team dynamics and coaching, which might give them an edge. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- The Colts have a strong offense led by quarterback Sam Ehlinger, which could dominate the Texans' defense. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Colts have a more experienced coaching staff and a better overall team record, giving them an advantage. (Strength: 9/10)
- The Texans' recent performances have been inconsistent, which could lead to a letdown in this game. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Colts' offense and coaching staff seem to have an edge. However, the Texans' potential for competitiveness and recent improvements cannot be ignored. The Colts' potential for injuries or player absences also poses a risk.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the Colts' chances of winning as 72%.

6. Evaluation of confidence:
My initial probability of 72% seems reasonable, given the available information. However, I might have underestimated the Texans' potential for a strong performance. The Colts' injury situation and the Texans' recent improvements could impact the game's outcome. Considering the base rate of NFL games (where the home team wins around 50-60% of the time), I might have been too confident in the Colts' chances.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will the Chicago Bears defeat the Washington Commanders in their Thursday Night Football (TNF) game on October 5, 2023? The outcome of this question is determined by the result of the game, with a "YES" answer if the Bears win, and a "NO" answer if the Commanders win or the game ends in a tie.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strong to weak):
   - The Washington Commanders have a relatively strong defense, which could limit the Bears' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 6/10)
   - The Commanders' offense has shown some improvement in recent games, which could help them keep pace with the Bears. (Strength: 5/10)
   - The Bears have struggled with consistency throughout the season, which might affect their performance in this game. (Strength: 4/10)
   - The Commanders have home-field advantage, which could give them a slight edge in the game. (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strong to weak):
   - The Bears have a strong running game, which could help them control the tempo of the game and wear down the Commanders' defense. (Strength: 7/10)
   - The Commanders have struggled with injuries to key players, which could impact their ability to compete with the Bears. (Strength: 6/10)
   - The Bears have a solid defense, which could limit the Commanders' scoring opportunities and help the Bears win. (Strength: 5/10)
   - The Bears have been playing better in recent games, which could give them the momentum to win this game. (Strength: 4/10)

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Bears' running game and defense could give them an advantage. However, the Commanders' strong defense and home-field advantage might make it a competitive game. The Bears' inconsistency and the Commanders' improved offense also add uncertainty to the outcome.

5. Initial probability: Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of the Bears winning as 62%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability: The initial probability might be slightly too confident, as there are several factors that could affect the outcome of the game, such as the Commanders' injuries and the Bears' consistency. However, the Bears' running game and defense do give them an advantage. The base rate of the event is not particularly relevant in this case, as it's a specific game outcome.

7. Final prediction: *0.58*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.58
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the United Launch Alliance's (ULA) first Vulcan Centaur launch, scheduled to take place in the near future, be successful? Considering the historical performance of ULA, the reliability of the Vulcan Centaur rocket, and any other relevant factors, what are the chances of a successful launch?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- **Reason 1: Unforeseen technical issues (Strength: 60%):** Despite thorough testing and preparation, there's always a chance of unexpected technical problems arising during the launch, which could lead to a failure.
- **Reason 2: Human error (Strength: 30%):** A single mistake by a launch team member or a miscalculation could cause the launch to fail.
- **Reason 3: External factors (Strength: 10%):** Weather conditions, launch site issues, or other external factors could potentially impact the success of the launch.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- **Reason 1: ULA's experience and expertise (Strength: 80%):** United Launch Alliance has a long history of successful launches, and the team behind the Vulcan Centaur has extensive experience with rocket development and launch operations.
- **Reason 2: Thorough testing and validation (Strength: 70%):** ULA has conducted extensive testing and validation of the Vulcan Centaur, which increases the likelihood of a successful launch.
- **Reason 3: Improved reliability of modern rockets (Strength: 50%):** Modern rockets, like the Vulcan Centaur, are designed with numerous redundancies and safety features, making them more reliable than older models.

4. Aggregated considerations:
While there are valid reasons for both a successful and unsuccessful launch, the weight of evidence suggests that the ULA's experience, thorough testing, and the improved reliability of modern rockets make a successful launch more likely. However, unforeseen technical issues and human error cannot be entirely ruled out.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of a successful ULA Vulcan Centaur launch to be around 85%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability and additional considerations:
Upon reevaluation, I consider the base rate of successful rocket launches to be high, with ULA having a strong track record. However, the relatively new nature of the Vulcan Centaur and the complexity of modern rocket launches might lead to a slightly lower probability. I also consider the fact that the question does not provide specific information about the launch date, which could be a factor in the success of the launch.

7. Final prediction:
*0.78*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.78
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the NFL game against the Baltimore Ravens on November 26, 2023, at SoFi Stadium at 5:20 PST, considering all relevant factors, including team performance, injuries, weather conditions, and any other relevant information available up to November 27, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Chargers have struggled with consistency this season, with a record of 6-4, and have shown vulnerability in their defense, which might be exploited by the Ravens' offense. (Strength: 4)
- The Ravens have a strong running game, led by J.K. Dobbins, and a stout defense that could limit the Chargers' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 4)
- The Chargers might be without key players due to injuries, which could weaken their chances of winning. (Strength: 3)
- The Ravens have a better record (8-2) and a stronger team performance overall, which could give them an edge in the game. (Strength: 5)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Chargers have a potent offense, led by Justin Herbert, which could outscore the Ravens' defense. (Strength: 4)
- The Chargers have been improving their defense in recent games, which could help them contain the Ravens' running game. (Strength: 3)
- The game is being played at SoFi Stadium, which could give the Chargers a home-field advantage. (Strength: 2)
- The Chargers might be motivated to win this game to stay in the playoff hunt. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Chargers' inconsistent performance, and the Ravens' strong record and running game, it seems that the Ravens have an advantage in this game. However, the Chargers' potent offense and improving defense could still make this a competitive game.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Chargers winning at 40%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40% seems reasonable, but it might be on the higher side considering the Ravens' strong record and performance. A more conservative estimate might be 30-35%. However, without more information on the specific lineups, injuries, and other factors, it's difficult to make a more accurate prediction.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Félix "xQc" Lengyel successfully beat the Minecraft record previously held by Forsen by the end of 2023? The resolution criteria for this question are not explicitly stated, but based on the context, it appears that the resolution is binary, with a "YES" answer if xQc claims the record title at any point before 00:00 GMT on January 1st, 2024, and a "NO" answer if he does not achieve this by then.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):

* xQc's gaming performance in Minecraft might not be as consistent or exceptional as Forsen's, which could make it difficult for him to break the record (Strength: 6/10).
* The Minecraft record is a challenging achievement, and it may require a significant amount of time, effort, and dedication to accomplish, which xQc might not be able to commit to (Strength: 5/10).
* xQc might not be actively focusing on Minecraft at this time or might have other priorities in his gaming career, which could hinder his ability to pursue the record (Strength: 4/10).
* Forsen's record might be too high, and xQc might not be able to surpass it, even with significant effort (Strength: 7/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):

* xQc is a skilled gamer with a strong background in various games, including Minecraft, which could give him an advantage in attempting to break the record (Strength: 8/10).
* xQc has a strong track record of competing at a high level and achieving success in gaming competitions, which suggests he has the ability to push himself to achieve difficult goals (Strength: 9/10).
* xQc might have a strong support team, including streamers, analysts, and other gamers, that could help him prepare and strategize for the record attempt (Strength: 6/10).
* xQc has a strong motivation to succeed and a desire to be the best, which could drive him to put in the time and effort necessary to break the record (Strength: 8/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that xQc's skills, experience, and motivation are strong factors in his favor. However, the difficulty of the Minecraft record and the potential for Forsen's record to be too high are significant challenges that could hinder xQc's progress. Overall, the balance of factors suggests that xQc has a good chance of beating the record, but it's not a certainty.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of xQc beating Forsen's Minecraft record by the end of 2023 to be around 62%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 62% seems relatively moderate and takes into account the various factors that could influence xQc's ability to beat the record. However, it's worth considering the base rate of xQc beating the record, which is not explicitly stated but could be relatively low given the difficulty of the record. This might make the initial probability too high. On the other hand, xQc's strong skills and motivation could justify a higher probability. To balance these factors, the initial probability could be adjusted to 55%.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party in Germany reach or exceed 20% in opinion polls for the Bundestagswahl (German federal election) by the end of 2023, given that as of June 30th, 2023, they are at 19% in the latest available "Sonntagsfrage" (Sunday question) polls from @Wahlen_DE?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 6/10**: The AfD has faced internal conflicts and controversies in the past, which might lead to a decline in public support. If these issues persist, it could hinder their ability to gain more support.
- **Strength: 5/10**: The German political landscape is complex, with multiple parties vying for attention. The AfD might struggle to maintain their current level of support in the face of competition from other parties.
- **Strength: 4/10**: The German economy has been performing relatively well, which could lead to a decrease in support for populist or nationalist parties like the AfD, as voters might become more focused on economic issues.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 8/10**: The AfD has a dedicated and passionate base of supporters, and they have shown an ability to mobilize their voters in the past. If they can maintain their current level of enthusiasm, they might be able to reach or exceed 20%.
- **Strength: 7/10**: The current political climate in Germany is characterized by a sense of uncertainty and discontent with the established parties. The AfD might be able to capitalize on this sentiment and gain more support.
- **Strength: 6/10**: The AfD has been able to tap into issues like immigration and national identity, which remain salient topics in German politics. If they can effectively communicate their message on these issues, they might be able to attract more voters.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, it seems that the AfD has a dedicated base of supporters and has been able to tap into salient issues in German politics. However, they also face internal conflicts and competition from other parties. The German economy has been performing well, which could lead to a decrease in support for populist parties. Overall, it seems that the AfD has a decent chance of reaching or exceeding 20% in opinion polls by the end of 2023.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the AfD reaching or exceeding 20% in opinion polls by the end of 2023 to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems relatively high, considering that the AfD is currently at 19% and would need to gain an additional 1% to reach the threshold. This might be overly optimistic, given the challenges they face. A more conservative estimate might be warranted.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Argentina defeat Peru in their upcoming World Cup Qualifier match, scheduled to take place between October 2, 2023, and October 18, 2023? This question is dependent on the outcome of the match, with Argentina winning being the affirmative response and Peru winning or drawing being the negative response.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, 5 being the strongest):
- Peru has shown resilience in past World Cup Qualifiers, often pulling off upsets against top teams. (Strength: 4)
- Argentina might be experiencing team cohesion issues or injuries, which could affect their performance. (Strength: 3)
- Peru has a strong home advantage, which could give them a psychological boost. (Strength: 2)
- Argentina's recent performances have been inconsistent, with some matches showing signs of vulnerability. (Strength: 4)
- Peru has a skilled team with talented players who could potentially outmaneuver Argentina. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, 5 being the strongest):
- Argentina has a strong squad with top-notch players, including Lionel Messi, who can make a significant impact on the game. (Strength: 5)
- Argentina has a more experienced team with a proven track record in World Cup Qualifiers. (Strength: 5)
- Argentina has a more developed team chemistry and cohesion compared to Peru. (Strength: 4)
- Argentina has a more effective team strategy and tactics, which could give them an edge over Peru. (Strength: 4)
- Argentina has a strong home advantage, which could provide them with a significant boost. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Argentina has a strong squad with top players, a more experienced team, and a more developed team chemistry. However, Peru has shown resilience in the past and has a skilled team with talented players. Additionally, Peru has a home advantage, which could give them a psychological boost.

5. Initial probability (prediction):
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially predict a 65% chance of Argentina beating Peru.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability might be slightly overconfident, as it does not fully account for the home advantage of Peru and the team's past upsets. Additionally, the base rate of Argentina beating Peru in World Cup Qualifiers is not provided, which could be a factor in the outcome.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the US Department of Defense (DoD) announce the Biden Administration's forty-third drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine by July 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the announcement is made, and it will resolve to "No" if it is not. The resolution criteria for this question are not applicable or available.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- **Reason 1: Congressional opposition**: There might be opposition from some members of the US Congress to providing additional aid to Ukraine, which could delay or prevent the announcement of the forty-third drawdown. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 2: Budget constraints**: The US government might face budget constraints or prioritize other spending areas, leading to a delay or reduction in aid to Ukraine. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 3: Diplomatic efforts**: The US might be engaged in diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict in Ukraine through other means, reducing the need for additional military aid. (Strength: 4/10)
- **Reason 4: Logistical challenges**: The process of announcing and implementing the drawdown might be delayed due to logistical challenges, such as coordinating with international partners or ensuring the safe transportation of equipment. (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- **Reason 1: Continued US support for Ukraine**: The US has consistently provided aid to Ukraine since the start of the conflict, and it is likely that this support will continue. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 2: Ongoing conflict**: The conflict in Ukraine remains ongoing, and the US might continue to provide aid to support Ukraine's military efforts. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 3: International pressure**: The international community, including NATO and the EU, has expressed support for Ukraine, and the US might feel pressure to maintain its aid commitments. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 4: Biden administration's stance**: The Biden administration has been a strong supporter of Ukraine, and it is likely that they will continue to provide aid to the country. (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and a "no" answer, I think that the most significant factors are the US's continued support for Ukraine and the ongoing conflict. These factors suggest that the answer is likely to be yes. However, the possibility of congressional opposition, budget constraints, and logistical challenges might reduce the likelihood of an announcement by July 31.

5. Initial probability:
Based on my aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of the US Department of Defense announcing the Biden Administration's forty-third drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine by July 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, to be 70.

6. Evaluation of confidence and base rate:
My initial probability might be considered moderately confident, but it is not excessively confident. The base rate of the event is not directly relevant in this case, as the question is focused on a specific event (the announcement of the forty-third drawdown) rather than a general phenomenon (e.g., the rate of aid provision to Ukraine).

7. Final prediction:
*0.70*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Velikiy Tokmak railway station in Tokmak (47.234273433498416, 35.71907485774982) on January 1, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War's map, which assesses the control of the territory surrounding the railway station? If the ISW ceases to publish this information or changes the naming conventions for the assessed territory, then Metaculus will decide based on information provided by ISW or other credible sources. If the railway station is no longer standing at its current location or is fully destroyed by January 1, 2024, the resolution will be based on control of the area where the building was located on the 21st of February 2022, according to the latest available Google Earth image.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Ukraine's military has faced significant challenges in the region, with ongoing battles in the Zaporizhzhia region (Strength: 4). The railway station might still be under Russian control due to these ongoing battles.
- Russian forces have maintained a strong presence in the region, and it's possible that they could retain control of the railway station (Strength: 4).
- The Institute for the Study of War's map might not accurately reflect the current situation on the ground, leading to a false assumption of Ukrainian control (Strength: 2).
- The railway station could be heavily damaged or destroyed, making it difficult for Ukraine to maintain control (Strength: 3).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Ukraine has made significant gains in the region, and it's possible that they could maintain control of the railway station (Strength: 4).
- The Institute for the Study of War's map has accurately reflected the situation on the ground in the past, increasing the likelihood of Ukrainian control (Strength: 4).
- Ukrainian forces have been pushing back against Russian advances in the region, which could lead to them maintaining control of the railway station (Strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the balance of evidence suggests that Ukraine might have a slight advantage in maintaining control of the railway station. However, the ongoing battles in the region and the strong Russian presence make it a challenging situation to predict with certainty.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Ukraine having de facto control of the railway station on January 1, 2024, to be around 60.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 60 might be considered somewhat conservative, given the Ukrainian military's recent gains in the region. However, the ongoing battles and Russian presence make it a complex situation, and it's difficult to assign a higher probability without more information.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Giga Chikadze win against Alex Caceres at the UFC event in Singapore scheduled for August 26th, 2023? This market will resolve to YES if Giga Chikadze wins. If Alex Caceres wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A. We will be evaluating the likelihood of Giga Chikadze emerging victorious based on the available information up to August 20th, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Giga Chikadze has faced tougher opponents in the past, such as Brian Kelleher and Raoni Barcelos, and may not have the same level of experience against a fighter like Alex Caceres. (Strength: 3)
- Alex Caceres has a long and varied career in the UFC, with a background in wrestling, which could give him an edge in grappling situations. (Strength: 4)
- Caceres has shown resilience in his career, often bouncing back from losses and performing well in fights against tough opponents. (Strength: 3)
- Giga Chikadze's past performances may not be indicative of his current skill level, as fighters can improve or decline over time. (Strength: 2)
- Caceres has a significant size and reach advantage over Chikadze, which could be a factor in the fight. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Giga Chikadze has shown impressive skills in his past performances, with a strong record in the UFC and a variety of victories over different opponents. (Strength: 5)
- Chikadze has demonstrated his ability to finish fights with knockouts, which could be a significant factor in this matchup. (Strength: 4)
- Chikadze's striking skills are well-suited to the modern era of MMA, and he may be able to exploit Caceres's vulnerabilities in this area. (Strength: 3)
- Caceres has faced a variety of opponents in the past, but may not have the same level of experience against a fighter like Chikadze who is known for his quickness and agility. (Strength: 3)
- Chikadze has been training and preparing for this fight, and may be in the best shape of his career. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, it seems that Giga Chikadze has some advantages, such as his impressive skills and experience, but also faces some challenges, such as Caceres's wrestling background and size advantage. However, the reasons in favor of a yes answer seem slightly stronger, as Chikadze's skills and experience are more directly relevant to the fight.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Giga Chikadze beating Alex Caceres at 62%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively confident, but considering the uncertainty and unpredictability of MMA fights, it may be slightly too confident. Additionally, it's worth noting that the base rate of upsets in the UFC is relatively high, so it's possible that Caceres could pull off an upset. However, based on the information available, the initial probability seems reasonable.

7. Final prediction:
*0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Taylor Swift announce the release of Reputation (Taylor's Version), including the cover and release date, by January 2nd, 2024, or before that date? What are the chances of Taylor Swift making an official announcement about the release of Reputation (Taylor's Version) by the start of 2024?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Taylor Swift might be focusing on her current tour or other projects, and announcing Reputation (Taylor's Version) might not be a priority (Strength: 3).
- There's no official confirmation from Taylor Swift or her team about the release of Reputation (Taylor's Version) (Strength: 4).
- Taylor Swift might be waiting for a more strategic time to announce the release, such as during a major event or a specific date with symbolic meaning (Strength: 4).
- Taylor Swift might be working on re-recording other albums before Reputation (Taylor's Version) (Strength: 3).
- The announcement might not fit within her planned marketing strategy or timeline (Strength: 3).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Taylor Swift has been re-releasing her older albums as "Taylor's Version," which suggests a pattern of releasing these versions in a certain order (Strength: 4).
- The re-release of Reputation (Taylor's Version) might be a part of her plan to complete her re-recording project (Strength: 5).
- Taylor Swift has a history of announcing new projects and releases on her social media and website, which could indicate that an announcement is imminent (Strength: 4).
- The re-release of Reputation (Taylor's Version) might be a way to coincide with her current tour or a specific event (Strength: 3).
- Taylor Swift might be preparing for a big release and wants to build hype before the announcement (Strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that Taylor Swift's history of re-releasing her albums as "Taylor's Version" and her pattern of announcing new projects on her social media and website are strong indicators that she might announce Reputation (Taylor's Version) by the start of 2024. However, the lack of official confirmation and her current focus on other projects might also be a factor.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Taylor Swift announcing Reputation (Taylor's Version) by the start of 2024 as 60.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, but it might be on the lower side considering the strength of the indicators pointing towards an announcement. However, the lack of official confirmation and the uncertainty surrounding Taylor Swift's plans are valid reasons to temper the probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the cost of the GPT-4 API decrease by the end of 2023? This question refers to the pricing of the GPT-4 API, which is the API service offered by OpenAI that allows developers to integrate the GPT-4 model into their applications. The question is focused on whether the price per 1,000 prompt tokens or output tokens of any version of GPT-4 will decrease below certain thresholds by the end of 2023. The thresholds are $0.03 for prompt tokens and $0.06 for output tokens. If the price does not meet these thresholds, but a version of GPT-4 with a max text context length of 32K tokens or higher meets the $0.06 threshold for prompt tokens or $0.12 for output tokens, the question resolves partially. The question resolves to "N/A" if it is unclear whether a model meets the criteria or if OpenAI has not confirmed the pricing for a specific model. The question resolves to "NO" if none of the above conditions are met.

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **OpenAI's business model**: As a for-profit company, OpenAI may prioritize revenue over price reductions, especially for a high-demand product like GPT-4. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Investor expectations**: OpenAI has received significant investments, and investors may expect a certain level of revenue from the GPT-4 API. Reducing prices could negatively impact investor returns. (Strength: 5/10)
3. **Competition**: While OpenAI is a leader in the AI market, it still faces competition from other AI providers. However, OpenAI's GPT-4 model is highly regarded, and competitors may not be able to match its capabilities, making price reductions less necessary. (Strength: 4/10)
4. **Cost structure**: Developing and maintaining a large language model like GPT-4 is expensive. OpenAI may need to balance pricing with the costs of maintaining and improving the model. (Strength: 7/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Sam Altman's statement**: Sam Altman, OpenAI's CEO, has stated that "Cheaper and faster GPT-4" is a top priority. This suggests that OpenAI is committed to making the GPT-4 API more accessible and affordable. (Strength: 9/10)
2. **Market pressure**: The AI market is rapidly evolving, and OpenAI may need to stay competitive by reducing prices to maintain market share. (Strength: 8/10)
3. **Growth and adoption**: As more developers and companies adopt the GPT-4 API, OpenAI may need to reduce prices to accommodate growing demand and make the service more attractive to new users. (Strength: 8/10)
4. **OpenAI's mission**: OpenAI's mission is to ensure that AI benefits humanity. Reducing the cost of the GPT-4 API could make AI more accessible to a wider range of users, aligning with this mission. (Strength: 7/10)

Aggregated considerations:

The main factors influencing the outcome are OpenAI's business model, investor expectations, cost structure, and Sam Altman's statement. While there are valid reasons to expect price reductions, the company's need to balance revenue with costs and investor expectations may limit the extent of price decreases.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation:

The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the mixed signals from OpenAI's statements and business needs. However, it may be too conservative, as Sam Altman's statement and market pressure could drive more significant price reductions. On the other hand, OpenAI's costs and investor expectations may limit the extent of price decreases.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the New York Jets win their Week 1 matchup against the Buffalo Bills in the 2023 NFL season, marking a strong start to their season with the addition of quarterback Aaron Rodgers and last year's two Rookies of the Year? Given the Bills' recent dominance in the AFC East and their experience with quarterback Josh Allen, can the Jets overcome their challenges and secure a victory on Monday Night Football?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* The Bills have been a consistent force in the AFC East, winning the division title multiple times in the past few seasons. (Strength: 4)
* Josh Allen's experience and leadership will be a significant factor in the game. (Strength: 4)
* The Bills have a strong team defense that has consistently ranked high in the league. (Strength: 4)
* The Jets are entering a new season with significant roster changes, which can lead to growing pains and uncertainty. (Strength: 3)
* Aaron Rodgers may take time to adjust to the Jets' system and his new teammates. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* The addition of Aaron Rodgers, a proven quarterback, can significantly boost the Jets' offense. (Strength: 5)
* The Jets' two Rookies of the Year from last season, Sauce Gardner and Garrett Wilson, will be looking to build on their impressive rookie campaigns. (Strength: 4)
* The Bills' defense may struggle to contain the Jets' high-powered offense, especially with Rodgers at the helm. (Strength: 4)
* The Jets have a strong defensive unit that can potentially limit the Bills' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 4)
* The Bills' recent success may have created complacency, which the Jets can exploit. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strong points on both sides, it's essential to weigh the factors. The Bills' experience and consistent success in the AFC East are significant advantages. However, the addition of Aaron Rodgers and the Jets' Rookies of the Year can be a game-changer. The Jets' defense also has the potential to limit the Bills' scoring. Overall, while the Bills have an edge, the Jets' new additions and strengths on both sides of the ball make this a competitive matchup.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I estimate the probability of the Jets winning their Week 1 matchup against the Bills as 42%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
My initial probability of 42% seems relatively cautious, considering the significant advantages the Jets have with Aaron Rodgers and the Rookies of the Year. However, the Bills' consistent success and strong defense should not be underestimated. I may have been too quick to discount their experience and cohesion. Upon further reflection, I should consider the Bills' home-field advantage and the potential for the Jets to struggle with the transition to a new season.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the worldwide box office total of the Barbie film reach $1.4 billion by the end of 2023, considering it has already grossed $1.03 billion and has a 95% chance of hitting $1.2 billion according to Manifold users, as per the data on Box Office Mojo, and given that the question will resolve to YES if the worldwide total hits $1.4 billion by the end of the year, and NO otherwise? 

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Limited time frame**: The film has already grossed $1.03 billion and has a high chance of reaching $1.2 billion, but there is a relatively short time frame left in 2023 for it to reach $1.4 billion. This might limit the film's ability to accumulate the additional revenue needed. (Strength: 6/10)
2. **Potential decline in box office performance**: The film's box office performance might start to decline as the novelty wears off, and new releases or other movies might attract audiences away from Barbie. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Competition from other movies**: The end of 2023 might see the release of other highly anticipated films that could draw audiences away from Barbie and limit its box office potential. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Inflation and global economic factors**: Economic conditions, inflation, or other global factors might negatively impact box office revenue and limit the film's ability to reach $1.4 billion. (Strength: 4/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Strong brand recognition and marketing**: Barbie has a well-established brand and marketing efforts that could continue to drive interest and attract audiences. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Positive word-of-mouth and reviews**: The film has received positive reviews and word-of-mouth, which could help sustain its box office performance and attract new viewers. (Strength: 9/10)
3. **Holidays and special events**: The film's release coincides with the holiday season, which often sees increased box office activity and could provide a boost to its revenue. (Strength: 6/10)
4. **Potential re-releases or special events**: The film might be re-released or participate in special events, such as IMAX or 3D showings, which could generate additional revenue. (Strength: 5/10)

Aggregate considerations: Considering the factors above, the film's strong brand recognition, positive word-of-mouth, and the potential for holiday boosts and special events could offset the concerns about the limited time frame and potential decline in box office performance. However, the competition from other movies and global economic factors might still impact its ability to reach $1.4 billion.

Initial probability: 65

Evaluation of confidence: The calculated probability seems somewhat conservative, given the film's strong performance so far and the positive factors in its favor. However, the potential risks and uncertainties, such as competition and global economic factors, should not be underestimated. 

Final prediction: *0.70*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Anthony Smith defeat Ryan Spann in their upcoming fight scheduled for August 26th, 2023, at the UFC event in Singapore? If Anthony Smith wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Ryan Spann wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- Ryan Spann's wrestling skills might give Anthony Smith trouble, as Spann has a background in wrestling and has used this skill to gain submissions in past fights. (Strength: 6/10)
- Anthony Smith has had inconsistent performances in the past, which might make it difficult for him to secure a win against a skilled opponent like Ryan Spann. (Strength: 7/10)
- Ryan Spann has shown the ability to finish fights with his strikes, which could be a concern for Anthony Smith if he's unable to take him down or defend against Spann's strikes. (Strength: 8/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- Anthony Smith has a significant reach advantage over Ryan Spann, which could allow him to keep Spann at a distance and land strikes. (Strength: 8/10)
- Anthony Smith has shown the ability to finish fights with strikes in the past, which could be a concern for Ryan Spann if he's unable to take the fight to the ground. (Strength: 7/10)
- Anthony Smith has a strong background in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, which could allow him to take the fight to the ground and secure a submission or decision win. (Strength: 9/10)

4. Aggregated considerations: 
The aggregated considerations are based on the strength of each reason provided. The reasons that favor a "no" outcome have a total strength of 21/30, while the reasons that favor a "yes" outcome have a total strength of 24/30. This suggests that the aggregated considerations are slightly in favor of Anthony Smith winning the fight.

5. Initial probability: 
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially predict that Anthony Smith has a 60% chance of winning the fight.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable given the aggregated considerations. However, it's worth noting that the base rate of fighters winning their fights is typically around 50-60%, so Anthony Smith's initial probability is slightly above the average. Additionally, it's worth considering that the fight is scheduled to take place in Singapore, which might affect the fighters' performance due to the time zone and travel fatigue.

7. Final prediction: 
*0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Arsenal score more goals than Burnley than Burnley does by the end of regular time on Saturday, November 11, 2023, at 15:00 UTC in the Premier League match between Arsenal and Burnley?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength of each reason: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- Burnley has a strong defensive record this season (Strength: 4)
- Arsenal has been inconsistent in their recent performances (Strength: 3)
- Burnley has a solid team with experienced players (Strength: 4)
- Home advantage might not be enough for Arsenal to secure a win (Strength: 2)
- Burnley's counter-attacking strategy could catch Arsenal off guard (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength of each reason: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- Arsenal has a strong attacking lineup with skilled players (Strength: 5)
- Arsenal's home ground advantage at the Emirates Stadium (Strength: 4)
- Burnley has struggled on the road this season (Strength: 4)
- Mikel Arteta's tactical approach has been effective in recent matches (Strength: 4)
- Arsenal's recent form has been improving (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Arsenal's strong attacking lineup, home ground advantage, and improving form are significant advantages. However, Burnley's solid defense, experienced team, and counter-attacking strategy pose a challenge. Considering these factors, the probability of Arsenal scoring more goals than Burnley by the end of regular time seems higher.

5. Initial probability: 65

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 65 seems reasonable considering the strengths of both teams. However, it might be slightly too confident, given the unpredictability of football matches. The base rate of teams scoring more goals than their opponents in a single match is around 50%. This might suggest that the probability should be adjusted downward.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Tesla's vehicle deliveries in Q4 2023 exceed 500,000 units, considering the company's production capacity, demand, and guidance provided? The question takes into account the last five quarters of deliveries: Q3 2022 (343,820), Q4 2022 (405,278), Q1 2023 (422,875), Q2 2023 (466,140), and Q3 2023 (435,059). Additionally, it considers the recent price reductions, production capacity at various factories, and Elon Musk's statements on production pace and demand. The question also explores the possibility of Tesla's 2023 guidance of 1.8 million vehicles being a conservative estimate or a "sandbagged" number, given the company's ability to produce near 440,000 units in Q1 and Q2 2023. The resolution criteria do not apply in this case, and the question is open until January 2, 2024.

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. **Production capacity constraints**: Tesla's Fremont and Shanghai factories might be operating at or near capacity limits, which could limit the number of vehicles they can produce in Q4 2023. (Strength: 4)
2. **No significant growth in Q3 2023**: Tesla's Q3 2023 deliveries were lower than Q2 2023, which might indicate that the company is facing production or demand challenges. (Strength: 3)
3. **Price reductions might not stimulate demand enough**: While price reductions can help stimulate demand, they might not be enough to drive significant growth in Q4 2023, especially if consumers are not responding as expected. (Strength: 2)
4. **Production shutdowns and upgrades**: Tesla might have production shutdowns or upgrades in Q4 2023, which could reduce the number of vehicles delivered during that quarter. (Strength: 2)
5. **Base rate of exceeding 500,000 deliveries**: Historically, Tesla's Q4 deliveries have been lower than Q3 deliveries, so there is a base rate of not exceeding 500,000 deliveries in Q4 2023. (Strength: 1)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. **Recent production ramp-up at Berlin and Texas**: Tesla's Berlin and Texas factories are ramping up production, which could lead to increased deliveries in Q4 2023. (Strength: 4)
2. **Potential for exceeding 1.8 million deliveries in 2023**: Tesla's Q1 and Q2 2023 deliveries were near 440,000 and 480,000 units, respectively, which suggests that the company has the capacity to produce more than 1.8 million vehicles in 2023. (Strength: 5)
3. **Elon Musk's comments on production pace**: Elon Musk has stated that production is running at full pace, which could indicate that Tesla is not throttling back production to meet demand. (Strength: 4)
4. **Historical Q4 growth**: Tesla has historically seen growth in Q4 deliveries compared to Q3, which could indicate that Q4 2023 deliveries will be higher than Q3 2023. (Strength: 3)
5. **Demand for Tesla's vehicles**: Tesla's vehicles are in high demand, which could lead to increased deliveries in Q4 2023. (Strength: 3)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the main factors that will determine whether Tesla's Q4 2023 deliveries will exceed 500,000 units are the production capacity at various factories, the demand for Tesla's vehicles, and the potential for exceeding 1.8 million deliveries in 2023. While there are some challenges, such as production capacity constraints and potential production shutdowns, the recent production ramp-up at Berlin and Texas factories, Elon Musk's comments on production pace, and the potential for exceeding 1.8 million deliveries in 2023 suggest that Tesla has the capacity to deliver more than 500,000 units in Q4 2023.

Initial probability: 72

Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 72 is based on the aggregated considerations above. However, it might be considered not confident enough, given the strength of the reasons why the answer might be yes. The recent production ramp-up at Berlin and Texas factories, Elon Musk's comments on production pace, and the potential for exceeding 1.8 million deliveries in 2023 are strong indicators that Tesla has the capacity to deliver more than 500,000 units in Q4 2023.

Final prediction: *0.85*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.85
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (ToTK) win the Game of the Year (GOTY) award at The Game Awards 2023, which will be announced on a date between 2023-12-06 and 2023-12-08? Given the current information available up to 2023-08-02, I will assess the likelihood of ToTK winning the GOTY award at The Game Awards 2023.

Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
1. **Competition from other games**: The Game Awards 2023 will feature numerous highly acclaimed games, which could potentially be strong contenders for the GOTY award, thereby reducing ToTK's chances. (Strength: 4)
2. **Release timing**: The release date of ToTK is not specified, but if it's released close to the GOTY award date, it might not have enough time for critics and the general public to fully appreciate and review the game, which could affect its chances of winning. (Strength: 2)
3. **Other factors influencing the GOTY award**: The GOTY award is often influenced by factors such as marketing, industry trends, and the preferences of the voting body, which could work against ToTK. (Strength: 3)
4. **Historical precedent**: Past winners of the GOTY award often have a strong marketing campaign and a significant following. If ToTK doesn't have a strong marketing campaign or a significant following, it might be at a disadvantage. (Strength: 4)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
1. **Critical acclaim**: The Legend of Zelda series is known for its high-quality games, and ToTK is expected to be no exception. If critics and the gaming community praise ToTK highly, it could increase its chances of winning the GOTY award. (Strength: 5)
2. **Fan base**: The Legend of Zelda series has a dedicated and passionate fan base, which could contribute to ToTK's chances of winning the GOTY award. (Strength: 4)
3. **Innovative gameplay**: If ToTK introduces innovative gameplay mechanics or features that set it apart from other games, it could increase its chances of winning the GOTY award. (Strength: 4)
4. **Nintendo's influence**: As a first-party Nintendo game, ToTK might benefit from Nintendo's influence and marketing muscle, which could give it an edge in the competition. (Strength: 3)

Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons provided, the strength of the reasons for ToTK winning the GOTY award seems to be slightly stronger than the reasons against it. However, the competition from other games and the influence of factors such as marketing and industry trends should not be underestimated.

Initial probability: 60

Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable given the information available. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is the general probability of a game winning the GOTY award. This base rate is difficult to estimate, but it's likely to be around 1-5% (1 in 20-100 games). Considering this base rate, the initial probability of 60 might be excessively confident.

Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Bob Menendez announce his resignation from his position as United States Senator from New Jersey before or at the end of 2023, considering his current term is set to expire between September 22 and December 31, 2023? This question will resolve to "Yes" if he announces his resignation immediately or at any point before December 31, 2023. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1 to 10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- Menendez has not shown any public intentions to resign, and he has not faced any significant scandals or controversies that would prompt his resignation (Strength: 4).
- The current term of Menendez is still in effect, and there is no indication that he plans to step down early (Strength: 8).
- Resignation would require significant personal or professional reasons, which are not publicly known at this time (Strength: 6).
- Menendez's age and health are not publicly known to be a concern, which could be a factor in his decision to resign (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1 to 10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- There is ongoing investigation into Menendez's actions, which could potentially lead to charges or other consequences that might prompt his resignation (Strength: 7).
- Resignation might be a strategic move to avoid further scrutiny or potential impeachment proceedings (Strength: 5).
- Menendez's health or family reasons could be private concerns that lead to his resignation (Strength: 3).
- The increasing polarization in politics could lead to Menendez deciding to step down for the good of the party or the country (Strength: 4).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both "yes" and "no" possibilities, I weigh the strength of each argument. While there are some potential reasons for Menendez to resign, the current lack of public indication of his intention to do so, and the ongoing nature of his term, make a resignation less likely. The ongoing investigation is a significant concern, but it's uncertain whether it will lead to charges or consequences that would prompt resignation.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations, I estimate the probability of Menendez announcing his resignation by the end of 2023 to be around 20%.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
The calculated probability might be considered not confident enough, given the ongoing investigation and potential consequences that could arise from it. However, without more information about Menendez's personal or professional circumstances, it's challenging to assign a higher probability. The base rate of politicians resigning due to scandals or investigations is relatively low, which might affect the forecast.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Marlon Vera win against Pedro Munhoz at UFC 292, which is scheduled to take place on August 19th, 2023, in Boston, USA? If Marlon Vera wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Pedro Munhoz wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A. We have information that the fight is scheduled to happen, but we do not have information on the current odds or past performance of the fighters. Given the information available, we need to make an informed prediction about the outcome of the fight.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (NO):
- Pedro Munhoz has a strong background in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and wrestling, which could give him an advantage in a grappling-heavy fight. (Strength: 6/10)
- Marlon Vera's performance in his last few fights has been inconsistent, which might indicate a lack of focus or a decline in skills. (Strength: 5/10)
- Pedro Munhoz has a significant amount of experience in the UFC and has fought against top-level opponents, which could give him an edge in terms of experience and ring awareness. (Strength: 7/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (YES):
- Marlon Vera has shown impressive striking skills and power in his previous fights, which could give him an advantage in a stand-up fight. (Strength: 8/10)
- Vera has been on a three-fight winning streak and has been looking sharp in his recent performances. (Strength: 7/10)
- Vera's youth and athleticism could give him an advantage in terms of endurance and speed. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both YES and NO, it seems that Marlon Vera has some advantages in terms of striking and youth, but Pedro Munhoz has a strong background in grappling and experience in the UFC. However, Vera's recent performances have been impressive, and his youth and athleticism could give him an edge.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of Marlon Vera beating Pedro Munhoz at UFC 292 to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability seems to be relatively high, considering that Pedro Munhoz has a strong background in grappling and experience in the UFC. I might have overestimated the impact of Vera's youth and recent performances. A more conservative estimate might be around 55%.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will July 6th (2023) be the hottest day for the week from July 6th to July 12th? This question requires analyzing the daily temperature data from July 7th to July 12th to determine if any day surpasses the temperature of July 6th (17.23°C) according to the provided data source (XXXX). The goal is to assess the likelihood that July 6th remains the hottest day for the specified period.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

- **Reason 1: Temperature variability**: Temperatures can fluctuate significantly within a short period, and it's not uncommon for warmer days to occur after a cooler day. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 2: Weather patterns**: Local weather patterns, such as high-pressure systems or temperature inversions, can bring warmer temperatures, potentially making a day warmer than July 6th. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 3: Regional climate**: The region's climate and geographical features can influence temperature patterns, potentially leading to warmer days. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

- **Reason 1: Cooler temperatures after a peak**: If the region has experienced a recent heatwave, it's possible that temperatures will decrease or stabilize, making July 6th the hottest day for the week. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 2: Stable high-pressure systems**: If a high-pressure system dominates the region, it can maintain stable temperatures, making it less likely for a warmer day to occur. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 3: Temperature trends**: If the region has been experiencing a cooling trend, it's more likely that July 6th remains the hottest day. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the most significant factors are the potential for temperature variability and the possibility of a stable high-pressure system. However, the strength of these reasons is relatively moderate, and there is no strong indication that a significantly warmer day will occur.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems reasonable, as there are valid reasons for both the answer being yes and no. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as the reasons for a no answer seem more plausible. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of July 6th being the hottest day) is not explicitly known, which might affect the forecast.

7. Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a hurricane with a name (i.e., a storm classified as a hurricane by the National Hurricane Center) make landfall in New York and/or New Jersey during the 2023 hurricane season, which typically runs from June 1 to November 30, and specifically, before the close date of December 3, 2023? The resolution criteria for this question are that the storm must be classified as a hurricane when it makes landfall, and it must have a name.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

   a. The 2023 hurricane season has not yet reached its peak, which is typically in mid-to-late September, and hurricanes are more likely to occur during this period (strength: 4).
   b. New York and New Jersey are located in the Mid-Atlantic region, which is less prone to direct hurricane landfalls compared to the Gulf Coast or Southeastern states (strength: 3).
   c. The North Atlantic Ocean is still relatively cool due to the ongoing La Niña event, which can suppress hurricane activity (strength: 2).
   d. There is no significant El Niño event, which can enhance hurricane activity (strength: 1).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

   a. The 2023 hurricane season has already seen an early start, with the first named storm (African Easterly Wave) forming in early June, indicating potential for an active season (strength: 4).
   b. The Atlantic Ocean is still warm, which can contribute to hurricane development (strength: 4).
   c. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been in a negative phase, which can lead to a more meridional flow and potentially enhance hurricane activity (strength: 3).
   d. The hurricane season is still in its active phase, with many weeks remaining before the official end date (strength: 4).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the above factors, it seems that the 2023 hurricane season is likely to be active, but the North Atlantic region, where New York and New Jersey are located, is less prone to direct hurricane landfalls. However, the early start to the season and the warm Atlantic Ocean suggest that there is still a possibility of a hurricane making landfall.

5. Initial probability:
Given the above considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of a hurricane making landfall in New York and/or New Jersey during the 2023 hurricane season as 40%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 40% seems reasonable, considering the factors mentioned above. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of hurricane landfalls in the region, which is relatively low. The probability might be too high, given the low base rate. A more conservative estimate might be warranted.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Cory Sandhagen emerge victorious in his upcoming fight against Rob Font on August 5th, 2023, at the UFC event in Nashville, Tennessee? If Cory Sandhagen wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Rob Font wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- Rob Font has been in the UFC for a longer period and has more experience in the organization, which might give him an edge over Cory Sandhagen. (Strength: 6/10)
- Cory Sandhagen has had a few losses in his UFC career, which could indicate some vulnerabilities in his fighting style. (Strength: 5/10)
- Rob Font is known for his aggressive fighting style, which might allow him to outmaneuver Cory Sandhagen. (Strength: 4/10)
- Cory Sandhagen might be coming into the fight with some ring rust, having not fought in a while. (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- Cory Sandhagen has shown impressive skills in his previous fights, including a highlight-reel knockout victory. (Strength: 8/10)
- He has a strong striking game, which could give him an advantage over Rob Font. (Strength: 7/10)
- Cory Sandhagen has been training well and has a good camp behind him, which could give him an edge. (Strength: 5/10)
- He has the potential to catch Rob Font with a big shot and finish the fight early. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations: 
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both fighters, I believe that Cory Sandhagen has a slight advantage in terms of skills and potential. However, Rob Font's experience and aggression could give him a chance to win. I'm leaning towards Cory Sandhagen winning, but it's a close call.

5. Initial probability:
60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability seems a bit high, considering that Cory Sandhagen has had some losses in his career and Rob Font has a lot of experience. I should probably adjust it downwards to reflect the uncertainty of the fight.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Denver Broncos defeat the Kansas City Chiefs in their NFL Week 8 game on October 29, 2023, at Empower Field at Mile High, which is scheduled to start at 13:25 PDT? The game's resolution will determine the outcome as a yes (Broncos win), no (Chiefs win), or not applicable (game ends in a tie). Given the information provided, we cannot access the current odds, team statistics, or injury reports, which might impact the game's outcome.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1 to 10 for strength, 1 being the weakest and 10 the strongest):
- The Kansas City Chiefs have a strong team with a high-powered offense and a solid defense. (Strength: 8)
- The Chiefs have a history of rivalry with the Broncos and often perform well against them. (Strength: 6)
- The Broncos might struggle to contain the Chiefs' quarterback, Patrick Mahomes. (Strength: 7)
- The Broncos' defense has shown some weaknesses this season, which could be exploited by the Chiefs. (Strength: 6)
- The Broncos might be underdogs, which could affect their performance and confidence. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1 to 10 for strength, 1 being the weakest and 10 the strongest):
- The Broncos have a strong defense that could potentially contain the Chiefs' offense. (Strength: 7)
- The Broncos have shown resilience and adaptability in their previous games this season. (Strength: 5)
- The Broncos might be able to exploit the Chiefs' weaknesses on defense. (Strength: 6)
- The Broncos have a home-field advantage at Empower Field at Mile High, which could boost their performance. (Strength: 8)
- The Broncos have a strong running game that could help control the tempo of the game. (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Broncos have a strong home-field advantage, a solid defense, and a resilient team performance. However, the Chiefs have a powerful offense and a history of success against the Broncos. The Chiefs' quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, is a significant factor in their success, and the Broncos might struggle to contain him. The Broncos' defense has shown some weaknesses, which the Chiefs could exploit. Overall, the game is likely to be closely contested, but the Chiefs' offense might give them an edge.

5. Initial probability: 42
The initial probability is around 42% because the Broncos have some strengths, but the Chiefs' powerful offense and history of success against the Broncos give them an advantage.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability might be too low, considering the Broncos' home-field advantage and their resilient performance this season. However, the Chiefs' offense and history against the Broncos might offset these advantages. The base rate of the Broncos winning against the Chiefs is not readily available, but given their past performances, it's likely to be lower than average.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Chinese President Xi Jinping attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in San Francisco in November 2023? Given the information available up to 2023-07-28, what are the factors that might influence his attendance, and what is the likelihood of him attending the event?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

* **Reason 1: Sino-US relations**: The current state of Sino-US relations could be tense, which might lead to China's reluctance to send high-level representatives, including President Xi Jinping, to APEC meetings in the US. (Strength: 6/10)
* **Reason 2: Domestic priorities**: Xi Jinping might prioritize domestic issues, such as the upcoming Chinese Communist Party Congress, over international events like APEC. (Strength: 5/10)
* **Reason 3: COVID-19 concerns**: The US might still have strict COVID-19 protocols in place, which could make it difficult for Xi Jinping to attend the meeting, especially if he is still cautious about international travel. (Strength: 4/10)
* **Reason 4: Personal preferences**: Xi Jinping might simply choose not to attend the meeting due to personal reasons or a desire to avoid the diplomatic obligations that come with it. (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

* **Reason 1: Diplomatic efforts**: China might see APEC as an opportunity to engage in diplomatic efforts with other countries, including the US, and therefore send a high-level representative like Xi Jinping. (Strength: 8/10)
* **Reason 2: Economic interests**: As a key player in the Asia-Pacific region, China might want to maintain a strong presence at APEC to promote its economic interests and engage with other member economies. (Strength: 7/10)
* **Reason 3: Protocol and symbolism**: As the leader of China, Xi Jinping's attendance at APEC would be a significant symbolic gesture, and he might feel obligated to attend to maintain China's reputation and influence in the region. (Strength: 6/10)
* **Reason 4: Official announcements**: The Chinese government might officially announce Xi Jinping's attendance at APEC, making it more likely that he will attend. (Strength: 9/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the balance of evidence suggests that Xi Jinping is likely to attend the APEC meeting in San Francisco. The reasons in favor of his attendance (Reasons 1-4 in step 3) have stronger weights, while the reasons against his attendance (Reasons 1-4 in step 2) have relatively weaker weights.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially predict a 70% chance that Xi Jinping will attend the APEC meeting in San Francisco.

6. Evaluation and refinement:
Upon further reflection, I consider the base rate of Chinese leaders attending APEC meetings to be relatively high, which might make my initial prediction overly confident. I also note that the reasons against his attendance are relatively weak, which might make the 70% probability too low. Considering these factors, I might adjust my initial prediction to a more moderate 60-80% range.

7. Final prediction:
*0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Australia defeat England in the semi-finals of the Women's World Cup 2023? Given the context of the tournament, this question will resolve as YES if Australia wins their semi-finals match against England and advances to the next round. The question will resolve as NO if England wins the match. In the event that the match does not occur due to unforeseen circumstances other than a forfeit, the market will resolve as N/A. The question is relevant to the Women's World Cup 2023, and the resolution criteria are not applicable at this time. The question is currently open until August 16, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- England's team has a strong squad with skilled players, including experienced goalkeepers, defenders, midfielders, and forwards (Strength: 4).
- England has a good track record in international competitions, having won several titles in the past (Strength: 4).
- Australia might struggle with England's defensive strategy, which could limit their scoring opportunities (Strength: 3).
- Australia has had some inconsistent performances throughout the tournament, which might impact their confidence and momentum (Strength: 3).
- England has a strong team dynamic and cohesion, which could give them an edge over Australia (Strength: 4).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Australia has a talented young team with a strong attacking style of play, which could create scoring opportunities against England (Strength: 4).
- Australia has shown resilience and adaptability in previous matches, which could help them overcome England's defense (Strength: 4).
- England might be under pressure to perform well, which could affect their mental state and decision-making on the field (Strength: 3).
- Australia has a good understanding of England's strengths and weaknesses, which could help them develop a effective game plan (Strength: 4).
- The semi-finals are a high-pressure environment, and Australia might be able to handle the stress better than England (Strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, it seems that England has a slight edge due to their experience, defensive strategy, and team cohesion. However, Australia's young and talented team, along with their resilience and adaptability, make them a formidable opponent. The pressure of the semi-finals could also play a significant role in the outcome.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of Australia defeating England in the semi-finals as 40%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 40% seems relatively conservative, considering Australia's strong performance in the tournament so far. However, I have considered the strengths of both teams and the high-pressure environment of the semi-finals. Upon further reflection, I think I may have underestimated the potential impact of Australia's young and talented team. The base rate of the event is not directly relevant in this case, as it's a specific match between two teams.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the National Football League (NFL) game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Levi's Stadium on October 29, 2023, at 13:25 PDT? This question assumes that a tie is not possible, and the game will have a definitive winner. 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rating the strength of each reason on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The Bengals have a strong offense and a solid defense, which could give them an advantage over the 49ers. (Strength: 4)
- The 49ers might be dealing with injuries or fatigue from previous games, affecting their performance. (Strength: 3)
- The Bengals' quarterback, Joe Burrow, has shown exceptional leadership and skills in high-pressure situations, which could be crucial in a close game. (Strength: 4)
- The 49ers' defense might struggle to contain the Bengals' running back, Joe Mixon, who has been performing well this season. (Strength: 3)
- The Bengals have been improving their team performance over the past few weeks, which could translate to a win against the 49ers. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rating the strength of each reason on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The 49ers have a strong home-field advantage at Levi's Stadium, which could give them a boost in energy and motivation. (Strength: 4)
- The 49ers' quarterback, Brock Purdy, has been playing well this season and has shown the ability to make clutch plays. (Strength: 4)
- The 49ers' defense has been solid this season, and they might be able to contain the Bengals' offense. (Strength: 3)
- The 49ers have a good record this season, indicating their overall strength and consistency. (Strength: 4)
- The Bengals might struggle with turnovers and penalties, which could give the 49ers an opportunity to take control of the game. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the home-field advantage, and the performance of key players, it seems that the 49ers have a slight edge in this game. However, the Bengals have been improving and have a strong offense, which makes this game competitive. The 49ers' defense and Brock Purdy's clutch plays might be the deciding factors in this game.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. However, it might be too confident, as there are many variables that can affect the outcome of the game. The base rate of the 49ers winning at home is also relatively high, which should be taken into account.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Detroit Lions defeat the Las Vegas Raiders in their Week 8 NFL game on October 30, 2023, at Ford Field, which is scheduled to start at 17:15 PDT?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1 to 10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- The Las Vegas Raiders have a relatively strong defense, which might limit the Detroit Lions' offense (Strength: 6). 
- The Raiders have a more experienced quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, who has played in more high-pressure situations (Strength: 8).
- The Lions have struggled with injuries to key players this season, which could affect their performance (Strength: 5).
- The Raiders have a better record and more wins in their division, which might give them an edge (Strength: 7).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1 to 10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- The Lions have a strong running game led by Jahmyr Gibbs, which could help control the clock and wear down the Raiders' defense (Strength: 8).
- The Lions' defense has shown improvement this season, particularly in their ability to generate turnovers (Strength: 7).
- The Raiders have struggled on the road this season, which could be a factor in their performance at Ford Field (Strength: 6).
- The Lions have a strong home-field advantage at Ford Field, which could give them a boost (Strength: 9).

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Las Vegas Raiders have a strong defense and a more experienced quarterback, which are significant advantages. However, the Detroit Lions have a strong running game and a home-field advantage, which could help them counter the Raiders' strengths. The Lions' defense has also shown improvement, and the Raiders have struggled on the road.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of the Detroit Lions beating the Las Vegas Raiders as 42.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability of 42% seems relatively conservative, given the Lions' strengths. However, it also takes into account the Raiders' advantages, which could be significant. The base rate of the event (i.e., the Lions beating the Raiders) is not particularly relevant, as it's a single game outcome. However, it's worth noting that the Lions have not had a strong record in recent years, which might affect the overall confidence in their ability to win.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will there be a significant and involuntary change in the government of any country, resulting in the overthrow or dissolution of the government, due to internal political upheaval, external military intervention, or other unforeseen circumstances, as confirmed by credible sources such as news organizations or official government statements, between July 10 and September 1, 2023? This includes, but is not limited to, a military coup, political impeachment, a popular uprising, or a foreign invasion. Additionally, a significant and involuntary change in government will also be considered if a sitting prime minister or president dissolves the government and calls for new elections due to internal political upheaval or other unforeseen circumstances.

Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Stability of current governments**: Most countries have relatively stable governments, with many having strong institutions and a history of peaceful transfers of power. This stability reduces the likelihood of a significant and involuntary change in government. (Strength: 4)
2. **Lack of clear triggers for unrest**: There are no apparent, widely recognized triggers for unrest or instability in any major countries that could lead to a significant change in government. (Strength: 3)
3. **Global economic trends**: The global economy is currently experiencing a period of relative stability, which may reduce the likelihood of widespread unrest or instability. (Strength: 2)
4. **Deterrent effect of international institutions**: International institutions, such as the United Nations and the European Union, often provide a framework for resolving conflicts and preventing the overthrow of governments. (Strength: 3)
5. **Government responses to potential threats**: Governments are often proactive in addressing potential threats to their stability, such as through security measures or diplomatic efforts. (Strength: 2)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

1. **Global economic uncertainty**: The global economy is facing various challenges, including inflation, supply chain disruptions, and the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This uncertainty could lead to widespread discontent and potential unrest. (Strength: 4)
2. **Rise of populist movements**: Populist movements have been gaining traction in various countries, which could lead to instability and potentially even the overthrow of governments. (Strength: 3)
3. **Regional conflicts**: Ongoing regional conflicts, such as in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, could escalate and lead to a significant change in government. (Strength: 4)
4. **Climate change and environmental concerns**: The growing awareness of climate change and environmental concerns could lead to widespread protests and potential instability. (Strength: 2)
5. **Unforeseen global events**: The world is inherently unpredictable, and unforeseen events, such as a global pandemic or a major natural disaster, could lead to a significant change in government. (Strength: 5)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I would rate the likelihood of a significant and involuntary change in government as follows:

* The stability of current governments and the lack of clear triggers for unrest suggest a lower likelihood of a significant change in government.
* The global economic trends, deterrent effect of international institutions, and government responses to potential threats suggest a moderate likelihood of stability.
* The global economic uncertainty, rise of populist movements, regional conflicts, climate change and environmental concerns, and unforeseen global events suggest a moderate to high likelihood of a significant change in government.

Initial probability: 30

Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 30 may be considered not confident enough, given the potential for unforeseen events and the rise of populist movements. However, the stability of current governments and the deterrent effect of international institutions suggest a lower likelihood of a significant change in government.

Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Detroit Lions win against the Minnesota Vikings in their Week 18 NFL game on January 5, 2024, at Ford Field at 10:00 PST? The game ending in a tie will result in a "NO" answer, and if the game does not have a clear winner, it will result in a "N/A" answer. Given the current date of September 20, 2023, and the question's close date of January 7, 2024, I will make an assessment based on my knowledge of the NFL and its teams.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

- The Detroit Lions have struggled historically against the Minnesota Vikings, often facing difficulties in their matchups. (Strength: 4)
- The Lions have had inconsistent performances throughout the season, which might affect their chances of winning against a strong opponent like the Vikings. (Strength: 3)
- The Vikings have a strong offense and a solid defense, which could pose a challenge for the Lions. (Strength: 4)
- The Lions are playing at home, but their home field advantage might not be enough to secure a win against a tough opponent like the Vikings. (Strength: 2)
- The Lions' quarterback, Jared Goff, has had some struggles with injuries and inconsistent play, which could impact their chances of winning. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

- The Lions have shown improvement in their season, and their team's chemistry might be better than expected. (Strength: 3)
- The Vikings have had some injuries to key players, which could impact their performance in the game. (Strength: 4)
- The Lions' running back, D'Andre Swift, has been playing well and could provide a strong ground game for the team. (Strength: 3)
- The Vikings' defense has struggled against the run this season, which could give the Lions an advantage. (Strength: 4)
- The Lions' coaching staff has made some adjustments that could help them prepare for the Vikings' strong offense. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, I think the Vikings' strong offense and defense, combined with the Lions' inconsistent performances and historical struggles against the Vikings, make it a challenging game for the Lions. However, the Vikings' injuries and the Lions' improvement throughout the season give the Lions a slight chance of winning. I will weigh these factors and make an initial prediction.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of the Lions beating the Vikings as 45%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
My initial probability of 45% seems reasonable, given the balanced assessment of the teams' strengths and weaknesses. However, I did not consider the base rate of the event, which is the overall probability of the Lions beating the Vikings in a regular-season game. This base rate is likely around 40-50%, given the teams' historical matchups. Considering this, my initial probability might be slightly too high.

7. Final prediction:
*0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will England win the women's World Cup semi-final match against Australia, which is scheduled to take place between August 10th and August 16th, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-10 for strength, with 10 being the strongest):

- England's performance in the group stages might not be enough to carry them through to the final, as they may face stiff competition from Australia. (Strength: 6)
- Australia has a strong team with experienced players, which could give them an edge over England. (Strength: 8)
- England's players may be under pressure to perform, which could affect their mental state and overall gameplay. (Strength: 4)
- Australia's familiarity with the tournament format and playing conditions might give them an advantage. (Strength: 7)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-10 for strength, with 10 being the strongest):

- England has a talented team with skilled players who have been performing well in the tournament so far. (Strength: 9)
- England's coach has shown strategic expertise in previous matches, which could help them make key decisions during the semi-final. (Strength: 8)
- England has a strong team dynamic and camaraderie, which could give them an edge over Australia. (Strength: 6)
- England's players have been in good form and have shown consistency in their performances throughout the tournament. (Strength: 9)

4. Aggregated considerations:
England has a strong team with skilled players, a talented coach, and a good team dynamic. However, Australia is a formidable opponent with experience and familiarity with the tournament format. England's performance in the group stages may not be enough to carry them through to the final, and the pressure to perform may affect their mental state. Considering these factors, the outcome is uncertain.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable given the considerations above. However, it may be slightly too high, as the factors working against England are significant. The base rate of England winning the semi-final is not provided, but considering the strength of the teams involved, it's likely to be a close match.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Alternative for Germany (AFD) receive the second-largest share of the votes in the upcoming Bavarian state election, scheduled to take place around October 8, 2023, and currently, the Green Party is leading the polls? Considering the time frame between now (July 27, 2023) and the election date (October 8, 2023), is it plausible for the AFD to catch up and surpass the current second-placed party in the polls to secure the second-largest share of the votes? What factors might influence this outcome, and how likely is it that the AFD will achieve this?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The AFD's popularity has been declining in recent years, which might indicate a lack of momentum to catch up with other parties (Strength: 4).
- The Green Party has historically been strong in Bavaria, and they might maintain their lead due to their existing support base and environmental policies that are popular in the region (Strength: 4).
- The AFD has been associated with controversy and polarization, which might limit their appeal to a broader audience (Strength: 3).
- The upcoming election is relatively close, and it might be challenging for the AFD to gain significant traction and catch up with the current front-runners in a short period (Strength: 5).
- The AFD's focus on national issues might not resonate as strongly with Bavarian voters, who often prioritize regional concerns (Strength: 3).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The AFD has a strong presence in Bavaria and has been gaining support in the region (Strength: 4).
- The current economic situation in Germany might be a concern for voters, and the AFD's anti-establishment and economic policies could appeal to those dissatisfied with the current government (Strength: 4).
- The AFD has been working to rebrand themselves and appeal to a broader audience, which might lead to increased support (Strength: 3).
- The Bavarian state election is a relatively local contest, and the AFD might be able to focus on regional issues that resonate with voters (Strength: 3).
- The AFD has a strong grassroots organization in Bavaria, which could help them mobilize support and catch up with other parties (Strength: 4).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that the AFD has a plausible chance to catch up with the current second-placed party in the polls. However, the factors working against them, such as their declining popularity and potential polarization, are significant. The AFD's strong presence in Bavaria, rebranding efforts, and local focus might help them gain traction, but it's uncertain whether it will be enough to secure the second-largest share of the votes.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would initially estimate the probability of the AFD receiving the second-largest share of the votes at around 30%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability might be too low, considering the AFD's strong presence in Bavaria and their rebranding efforts. However, the factors working against them, such as their declining popularity and potential polarization, should not be underestimated. The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of the AFD receiving the second-largest share of the votes) is difficult to estimate, but it's likely relatively low, given the AFD's national and regional performance in recent years.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel in 2023, given the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the current geopolitical climate? The question is relevant as of October 11, 2023, and the deadline for consideration is January 1, 2024.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Ongoing conflict in Ukraine** (Strength: 8/10): The war between Ukraine and Russia might make it difficult for Zelenskyy to travel, and Israel might not want to risk being seen as taking sides or provoking Russia. (Rating: 8/10)
- **Reason 2: Scheduling conflicts** (Strength: 6/10): Zelenskyy might have prior commitments or scheduling conflicts that prevent him from visiting Israel in 2023. (Rating: 6/10)
- **Reason 3: Israel's delicate relations with Russia** (Strength: 7/10): Israel has been trying to maintain good relations with Russia, and a visit by Zelenskyy might strain these relations, potentially harming Israel's interests. (Rating: 7/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Israel's support for Ukraine** (Strength: 9/10): Israel has been a vocal supporter of Ukraine and has provided military aid, which might make a visit by Zelenskyy a way for Israel to show its solidarity and support. (Rating: 9/10)
- **Reason 2: Diplomatic efforts** (Strength: 8/10): A visit by Zelenskyy could be part of diplomatic efforts to strengthen ties between Ukraine and Israel, or to address specific issues like trade or security cooperation. (Rating: 8/10)
- **Reason 3: Zelenskyy's international travel** (Strength: 6/10): As the President of Ukraine, Zelenskyy has been traveling internationally to rally support for Ukraine, and a visit to Israel might be part of this effort. (Rating: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons for a "no" answer (Reasons 1-3) have a combined strength of 21/10. The reasons for a "yes" answer (Reasons 1-3) have a combined strength of 23/10. This suggests that the likelihood of Zelenskyy visiting Israel in 2023 is slightly higher than the likelihood of him not visiting.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Zelenskyy visiting Israel in 2023 to be around 55.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
The initial probability of 55 seems reasonable given the mixed reasons for and against a visit. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of world leaders visiting other countries, which is relatively high. Additionally, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the geopolitical climate might lead to unexpected developments that could affect the likelihood of a visit. Considering these factors, the initial probability might be slightly too low.

7. Final prediction:
*0.58*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.58
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the US Department of Defense (DoD) announce the Biden Administration's forty-third drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine by July 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET? If this happens, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The drawdown is a specific action that has been a part of the US's ongoing support for Ukraine since August 2021.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strongest to weakest):

* 7/10: The drawdown announcement might be delayed due to bureaucratic reasons, such as internal disagreements within the US government or the need for further deliberation on the scope and scale of the aid. 
* 5/10: The US government might be reassessing its foreign policy priorities, potentially leading to a reduction in aid to Ukraine or a delay in announcing the drawdown.
* 3/10: The US Department of Defense might be facing logistical challenges in preparing and shipping the equipment, causing a delay in the announcement.
* 2/10: The US government might be experiencing a change in leadership or personnel, which could lead to a delay in decision-making processes.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strongest to weakest):

* 8/10: The US has consistently provided aid to Ukraine since 2021, and it's likely that this trend will continue, making it probable that the drawdown will be announced.
* 6/10: The US has maintained a strong stance in supporting Ukraine against Russia's invasion, and the drawdown announcement is a part of this continued support.
* 4/10: The drawdown has been a regular occurrence, and the US might be preparing for the next announcement, making it likely that it will happen on schedule.
* 2/10: The US has a history of providing timely aid to Ukraine, and it's possible that the drawdown will be announced as scheduled.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the likelihood of the drawdown announcement is moderate to high. The strongest reasons for a "yes" (8/10 and 6/10) outweigh the reasons for a "no" (7/10 and 5/10). The weaker reasons (3/10, 2/10, and 4/10) do not significantly impact the overall assessment.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would assign an initial probability of 70 to the drawdown announcement happening.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident. The reasons for a "no" are not insignificant, and there are potential external factors that could influence the US government's decision. However, the strong reasons for a "yes" provide a solid foundation for the initial probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Republican Representative George Santos serve out a full term in office as a U.S. Representative for New York's 3rd congressional district? Considering the current situation and available information up to October 2023, what are the chances that he will not be forced to leave office through a resignation, expulsion, or conviction by the end of his term, which is subject to change based on various factors including but not limited to, investigations, elections, and potential impeachment proceedings?

Reasons why the answer might be no (rating strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. **Ongoing investigations and potential charges**: There are multiple ongoing investigations into Representative Santos' past, including allegations of campaign finance irregularities, tax issues, and potential identity theft. The outcome of these investigations could lead to charges, which might force him to leave office. (Strength: 4)
2. **Expulsion proceedings**: If the House of Representatives votes to expel Santos, he will be forced to leave office. Given the bipartisan nature of the investigations and the growing calls for his resignation, there is a possibility that the House might take action to expel him. (Strength: 3)
3. **Loss of party support**: Representative Santos has already lost the support of many of his Republican colleagues and the party leadership, which might lead to a loss of resources and influence, making it difficult for him to serve out his term. (Strength: 2)
4. **Election challenges**: If Santos faces a primary challenge or a general election challenge, he might be forced to leave office if he loses. However, this is a less direct path to his removal. (Strength: 1)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (rating strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

1. **No clear majority for removal**: While there are calls for his resignation, it's unclear if there is a clear majority in the House or among his constituents to remove him from office. (Strength: 4)
2. **Lack of concrete evidence**: Despite the investigations, there is no concrete evidence to prove wrongdoing, which might make it difficult to build a case for removal. (Strength: 3)
3. **Support from some constituents**: Representative Santos still has some support from his constituents, which might make it difficult to muster the necessary votes for removal. (Strength: 2)
4. **Potential for Santos to clear his name**: If the investigations clear his name or find no wrongdoing, he might be able to serve out his term without issue. (Strength: 1)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the ongoing investigations, the potential for expulsion, and the loss of party support, there are valid reasons to believe that Representative Santos might not serve out his term. However, the lack of concrete evidence and the potential for him to clear his name or maintain support from some constituents suggests that there is still a chance he might serve out his term.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of confidence:
The initial probability of 40 seems relatively low, considering the potential consequences of the investigations and the loss of party support. However, the lack of concrete evidence and the potential for Santos to clear his name or maintain support from some constituents suggests that there is still a significant chance he might serve out his term.

Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will the Philadelphia Eagles defeat the San Francisco 49ers in their Week 13 NFL game on December 3, 2023, at Lincoln Financial Field, which starts at 1:25 PST? This question will be resolved if the Eagles win, and it will resolve to "NO" if the 49ers win. If the game ends in a tie or has no winner (like the Bills-Bengals game last year), the resolution will be "N/A." I will consider all available information and knowledge up to September 20, 2023, when making my prediction.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

   - The San Francisco 49ers have a strong offense with a high-powered quarterback in Brock Purdy, which could lead to a high-scoring game and a potential Eagles loss. (Strength: 4)
   - The Eagles have struggled with injuries to key players in the past, and it's possible they might be dealing with injuries heading into this game. (Strength: 3)
   - The 49ers have a strong home record, and playing at Lincoln Financial Field might not give them the same advantage they have at home. (Strength: 2)
   - The Eagles have been inconsistent this season, and a letdown game is possible. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

   - The Eagles have a strong defense that has been able to contain top offenses in the past. (Strength: 5)
   - The 49ers have struggled with injuries to key players, which could affect their performance. (Strength: 4)
   - The Eagles have a strong home-field advantage, which could give them an edge in this game. (Strength: 4)
   - The Eagles have a more well-rounded team with a balanced offense and defense. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Eagles' strong defense and home-field advantage are significant advantages. However, the 49ers' high-powered offense and potential injuries to key players are significant concerns. The Eagles' inconsistency and the 49ers' strong home record also need to be considered.

5. Initial probability: Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the Eagles beating the 49ers at 62%.

6. Evaluation: The initial probability seems relatively cautious, considering the Eagles' strong defense and home-field advantage. However, the 49ers' high-powered offense and potential injuries to key players might still affect the outcome. The base rate of the event is not directly applicable in this case, as it's a specific game prediction. However, it's essential to consider the general performance of the teams and the NFL season so far.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Buffalo Bills win the NFL game against the Dallas Cowboys on December 17, 2023, at Highmark Stadium, which is scheduled to start at 1:25 PST? 

The game outcome will determine the answer to this question. If the game ends in a tie, the answer will be NO. If the game does not have a clear winner, the answer will be N/A. The question will be closed on December 18, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength rating from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- The Bills have struggled with injuries to key players throughout the season, which could impact their performance. (Strength: 6)
- The Cowboys have a strong offense, led by quarterback Dak Prescott, which could give the Bills' defense trouble. (Strength: 8)
- The Bills have historically struggled in games against top-tier teams, often losing to strong opponents. (Strength: 5)
- The Cowboys have a strong home record, which could give them an advantage if the game were played in their home stadium. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength rating from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- The Bills have a strong team defense, which has been a key factor in their success this season. (Strength: 9)
- Josh Allen, the Bills' quarterback, has been playing well this season and has the ability to make plays with his legs and arm. (Strength: 8)
- The Bills have a strong running game, led by Josh Allen and James Cook, which could help control the clock and wear down the Cowboys' defense. (Strength: 7)
- The Bills have a solid home record at Highmark Stadium, which could give them an advantage in this game. (Strength: 6)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Cowboys' strong offense and the Bills' injury concerns are significant factors to consider. However, the Bills' strong defense and Josh Allen's ability to make plays could give them an edge. The home-field advantage at Highmark Stadium also plays in their favor. Overall, it's a closely contested matchup, but the Bills' strengths might give them a slight advantage.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of the Bills winning as 62%.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
My initial probability might be slightly too confident, as there are many factors that could affect the outcome of the game. However, considering the Bills' strengths and the Cowboys' weaknesses, I believe my initial probability is a reasonable estimate. One additional consideration is that the Bills have been inconsistent this season, which could impact their performance in this game.

7. Final prediction:
*0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Carolina Panthers in their NFL Week 13 game on December 3, 2023, at Raymond James Stadium, which starts at 10:00 PST?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- The Buccaneers have a tough schedule this season, and the Panthers might be a strong team that could capitalize on their fatigue. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Panthers have a good offense, and their quarterback might be able to outperform the Buccaneers' defense. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Buccaneers have had some inconsistent performances this season, which could lead to a loss against a strong opponent. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Panthers have a solid defense that could limit the Buccaneers' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 8/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- The Buccaneers have a strong offense led by Tom Brady, which could outscore the Panthers. (Strength: 9/10)
- The Buccaneers have a solid defense that could contain the Panthers' offense. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Buccaneers have home-field advantage at Raymond James Stadium, which could give them an edge. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Buccaneers have been improving their performance in recent weeks and might be on a hot streak. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Buccaneers have a strong offense and a solid defense, but the Panthers have a good offense and defense as well. The Buccaneers' inconsistent performances and tough schedule are concerns, but their home-field advantage and recent improvements might give them an edge.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of the Buccaneers beating the Panthers at 60%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. However, it might be too high, given the Panthers' strong defense and the Buccaneers' inconsistent performances. Additionally, the Panthers have been improving their record in recent weeks, which could be a concern for the Buccaneers.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the evaluation, I would adjust the initial probability to *0.55*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Sacramento Kings win the NBA game against the Los Angeles Lakers on October 29, 2023, at 6:00 pm PDT? This question will be resolved based on the final result of the game. If the game does not have a winner, the result will be N/A. If the game is rescheduled, the result will be based on the rescheduled game. If a winner is declared but the NBA orders a replay of some game time due to a mistake, a new market will be created to track the result of the replayed game. The question will be closed on October 30, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-10 for strength):
- The Los Angeles Lakers have a stronger team with more experienced players, which could give them an advantage in the game. (Strength: 8)
- The Sacramento Kings have had inconsistent performance in previous seasons, which might affect their chances of winning. (Strength: 6)
- The Lakers have a strong home-court advantage, which could impact the game's outcome. (Strength: 7)
- The Kings might struggle to contain the Lakers' star player, LeBron James, who has a history of dominating games. (Strength: 9)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-10 for strength):
- The Sacramento Kings have made significant roster changes and improvements during the offseason, which could boost their chances of winning. (Strength: 5)
- The Kings have a strong young core of players who could potentially outperform the Lakers' team. (Strength: 4)
- The Lakers have had some lineup issues and injuries, which could affect their performance in the game. (Strength: 6)
- The Kings have a good record in their last few games, which could indicate a strong momentum. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the Sacramento Kings have some advantages, such as a strong young core and recent momentum, but the Los Angeles Lakers have several disadvantages, including a stronger team and home-court advantage. The Lakers' star player, LeBron James, is also a significant concern for the Kings. However, the Kings' offseason improvements and recent performance might give them a slight edge.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems reasonable considering the balanced advantages and disadvantages of both teams. However, it might be too low considering the Lakers' overall strength and home-court advantage. The base rate of the Kings winning is not provided, but in general, home teams have a higher win rate in the NBA.

7. Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase at 11:59 PM EST on December 31, 2023 be higher than $35,000? Given the current date of November 7, 2023, we are making a prediction about a future event that will be resolved on January 1, 2024, as the question is closed on that date. We will assess various factors that could influence the price of Bitcoin and provide a probability of it exceeding $35,000 at the specified time.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength of each reason):

- **Reason 1: Market Volatility**: Bitcoin's price is known for its volatility, and it can fluctuate rapidly due to various market and economic factors. This volatility could lead to a decline in price, making it less likely to exceed $35,000. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 2: Regulatory Changes**: Governments and regulatory bodies may introduce stricter regulations or policies that negatively impact the cryptocurrency market, potentially leading to a decrease in Bitcoin's price. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 3: Economic Downturn**: A global economic downturn or recession could lead to a decrease in investor confidence, causing a decline in the price of Bitcoin. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 4: Competition from Alternative Cryptocurrencies**: Other cryptocurrencies may gain popularity, potentially drawing investors away from Bitcoin and causing its price to decline. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength of each reason):

- **Reason 1: Increased Adoption**: Wider adoption of Bitcoin by mainstream institutions, such as companies and governments, could lead to increased demand and a subsequent price increase. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 2: Limited Supply**: The limited supply of Bitcoin (21 million) could lead to increased demand and a higher price as more people become interested in investing in the cryptocurrency. (Strength: 9/10)
- **Reason 3: Improving Infrastructure**: Advances in technology and infrastructure, such as faster transaction processing and improved security, could make Bitcoin more appealing to investors and lead to a price increase. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 4: Speculation and FOMO**: Investor speculation and fear of missing out (FOMO) could drive up the price of Bitcoin as more people become interested in investing in the cryptocurrency. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that the factors pointing towards a higher price are more significant, particularly the limited supply and potential increased adoption. However, the market's volatility, regulatory changes, and economic downturn could still impact the price. A balanced assessment suggests that the probability of Bitcoin exceeding $35,000 is not extremely high but not extremely low either.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be around 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems relatively moderate, considering the factors that could influence the price of Bitcoin. However, it may not fully account for the potential impact of unforeseen events, such as a significant regulatory change or a global economic crisis. The base rate of the event (Bitcoin price exceeding $35,000) is not explicitly known, but it is likely to be relatively low, given the cryptocurrency market's volatility.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the New Orleans Saints beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in their NFL Week 7 game on October 19, 2023, at Caesars Superdome, starting at 17:15 PDT? The game will determine the winner directly, and a tie will result in a "No" answer. However, if the game does not have a winner, the answer will be "N/A." Given the current date is September 11, 2023, and the question's deadline is October 20, 2023, we have some time to analyze the teams' past performances and other relevant factors.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The Jaguars have a strong defense, which might limit the Saints' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 4)
- The Saints have struggled with injuries in the past season, and it's possible that key players might be missing on October 19. (Strength: 3)
- The Jaguars have shown improvement in their passing game, which could pose a challenge for the Saints' secondary. (Strength: 4)
- The Saints have a tough schedule leading up to the game, which might affect their performance on October 19. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The Saints have a strong offense led by their quarterback, which could exploit the Jaguars' defense. (Strength: 5)
- The Saints have a solid home-field advantage at Caesars Superdome, which might give them an edge. (Strength: 4)
- The Jaguars have struggled with consistency in their offense, which could lead to mistakes that the Saints can capitalize on. (Strength: 4)
- The Saints have a good track record against the Jaguars in recent years. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Saints have a strong offense, but the Jaguars have a solid defense. The Saints have a home-field advantage, but the Jaguars have shown improvement in their passing game. The Saints have struggled with injuries, but the Jaguars have struggled with consistency. Considering these factors, it seems that the game will be competitive, but the Saints' offense might have an edge.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the Saints beating the Jaguars as 60.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too low given the Saints' strong offense and home-field advantage. However, it's also possible that the Jaguars' defense and the Saints' injuries might affect the outcome. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of the Saints beating the Jaguars in a typical game), I would adjust the initial probability slightly upward.

7. Final prediction:
Given the considerations above, I would adjust the initial probability to *0.65*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Baltimore Ravens defeat the Los Angeles Rams in their NFL Week 14 game at M&T Bank Stadium on December 10, 2023, at 10:00 PST, given the current date of September 20, 2023? The game ending in a tie will resolve as a "no," while a game without a clear winner will resolve as "N/A." The resolution criteria are not applicable or available for this question.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating out of 10):
   - The Los Angeles Rams have a strong offense led by Matthew Stafford, and their ability to score points could be difficult for the Ravens to match. (Strength: 8/10)
   - The Ravens have struggled with injuries to key players in the past, which could impact their performance in this game. (Strength: 6/10)
   - The Rams have a solid defense that could potentially limit the Ravens' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 7/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating out of 10):
   - The Ravens have a strong running game led by J.K. Dobbins, which could wear down the Rams' defense. (Strength: 8/10)
   - Lamar Jackson is a skilled quarterback who can make plays with his legs, which could be difficult for the Rams to defend against. (Strength: 9/10)
   - The Ravens have a solid defense that could potentially shut down the Rams' offense. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Rams' strong offense and solid defense are significant factors to consider, as are the Ravens' potential injuries and the strength of their running game. However, Lamar Jackson's abilities as a quarterback and the Ravens' defense could give them an edge.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable given the factors mentioned above. However, it may be slightly conservative, as the Ravens have a strong team overall and Lamar Jackson's abilities are a significant advantage. Considering the base rate of NFL games, which is roughly 50-50, the initial probability may be too low.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Arizona Cardinals beat the Seattle Seahawks in their Week 18 game on January 5, 2024, at State Farm Stadium, which is scheduled to start at 10:00 PST? The game's outcome will determine whether the answer is "yes" or "no." If the game ends in a tie, the answer will be "no." In the event of a game without a clear winner, the answer will be "N/A."

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The Arizona Cardinals have struggled with consistency throughout the season, which might impact their performance in this game (strength: 4).
- The Seattle Seahawks have a strong defense, which could limit the Cardinals' scoring opportunities (strength: 5).
- The Cardinals have had issues with injuries to key players, which could further affect their chances of winning (strength: 3).
- The Seahawks have experience playing in high-pressure games, which might give them an edge (strength: 4).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The Cardinals have shown flashes of brilliance in their offense, which could translate to a strong performance in this game (strength: 4).
- The Seahawks have struggled with consistency in their offense, which might be exploited by the Cardinals' defense (strength: 4).
- The Cardinals have a strong home-field advantage at State Farm Stadium, which could boost their morale and performance (strength: 5).
- The Seahawks might be looking ahead to the playoffs, which could lead to a lack of focus and motivation in this game (strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that the game will be closely contested. The Cardinals' inconsistency and injuries might be countered by their strong home-field advantage and the Seahawks' potential lack of focus. However, the Seahawks' strong defense and the Cardinals' struggles with scoring could also impact the outcome.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the Cardinals beating the Seahawks at 55%.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
The initial probability seems relatively moderate, considering the uncertainty surrounding the game. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is a general estimate of the probability of an event occurring. In this case, the base rate of the Cardinals beating the Seahawks is not readily available. Additionally, it's worth noting that the NFL is known for its unpredictable nature, with many games having unexpected outcomes. This might suggest that the initial probability should be adjusted to account for the inherent uncertainty.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the initial probability, the need for a more nuanced estimate, and the unpredictability of the NFL, I would adjust the probability to *0.58*. This reflects a moderate confidence level, acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding the game while still leaning slightly towards the Cardinals winning.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.58
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Season 1 of the Golden Bachelor conclude with the final rose ceremony resulting in an engagement, as is traditional in the Bachelor franchise, where the last person standing receives a ring and a proposal from the Bachelor/Bachelorette? Considering the specific context of the Golden Bachelor, which is a spin-off of the popular Bachelor series, and the fact that it is Season 1, there might be some differences in format or execution. The question remains whether the show will adhere to the traditional format and present an engagement to the winner.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The Golden Bachelor is a spin-off, and the showrunners might choose to deviate from the traditional format to differentiate it from the original series (Strength: 3).
- The show may focus more on the unique aspects of the "golden" theme, potentially altering the traditional rose ceremony format (Strength: 2).
- The show could be designed to create more drama or suspense by not providing an engagement at the end, keeping viewers engaged for future seasons (Strength: 4).
- The production team might want to keep the outcome open-ended, allowing for more flexibility in future seasons or spin-offs (Strength: 3).
- The show's format might be influenced by the Bachelor's recent changes, such as the introduction of a "Bachelor in Paradise" style twist, which could potentially alter the engagement outcome (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The Golden Bachelor is a spin-off of the traditional Bachelor series, which has a long history of ending with an engagement (Strength: 4).
- The show's marketing and promotional materials might hint at a traditional engagement ceremony, creating viewer expectations (Strength: 3).
- The format of the Golden Bachelor is likely to be closely tied to the original series, making it likely to include a traditional engagement (Strength: 5).
- The show's producers might want to create a sense of closure and finality for the contestants and viewers, which an engagement would provide (Strength: 4).
- The Golden Bachelor's theme might not be as significant in altering the traditional format as other factors, such as the show's tone or the contestants (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons for a "no" outcome are relatively strong, particularly the potential for the showrunners to deviate from the traditional format, create suspense, or keep the outcome open-ended. However, the reasons for a "yes" outcome are stronger, with the format being closely tied to the original series and the producers wanting to create a sense of closure.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of the Golden Bachelor ending in an engagement at 60.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability might be considered not confident enough, as the reasons for a "yes" outcome are stronger than those for a "no" outcome. Considering the base rate of the event, the Bachelor series has a long history of ending with an engagement, which might increase the likelihood of the Golden Bachelor following suit.

7. Final prediction:
*0.80*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.8
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will Aaron Rodgers participate in at least one snap in a regular season game for the New York Jets by the end of the 2023-2024 NFL regular season, given the current date is October 16th, 2023, and the resolution criteria of participation is defined as playing in at least one snap in a regular season game, with the question closing on January 8th, 2024?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

    a. Aaron Rodgers' injury history and age (Strength: 3): As an NFL quarterback, Rodgers has had his share of injuries, and at 39 years old, he might be more prone to injuries, which could prevent him from playing by the end of the season.
    b. Team dynamics and coaching changes (Strength: 2): The Jets have made significant changes to their coaching staff and roster, which might affect Rodgers' comfort level and performance, potentially leading to him sitting out games.
    c. Personal reasons or retirement (Strength: 1): Rodgers has been known to be particular about his playing style and team dynamics. If he's not satisfied with the team's direction or has personal reasons, he might choose to retire or sit out the remainder of the season.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

    a. Rodgers' past performance and competitive drive (Strength: 5): As a highly competitive and accomplished quarterback, Rodgers has consistently shown his ability to perform at a high level, even in his 30s.
    b. Current Jets team performance (Strength: 3): The Jets have shown some promise this season, which could motivate Rodgers to stay and contribute to the team's success.
    c. Rodgers' contract and financial incentives (Strength: 4): As one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league, Rodgers has significant financial incentives to perform and stay healthy, which might encourage him to play through any potential injuries or discomfort.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "no" and "yes" answer, I weigh the strength of each point. Rodgers' past performance and competitive drive (Strength: 5) are significant factors in his favor, as is his contract and financial incentives (Strength: 4). However, his injury history and age (Strength: 3) and team dynamics (Strength: 2) might work against him. Personal reasons or retirement (Strength: 1) are less likely, given his history and financial situation.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
My initial probability of 60 seems relatively moderate, considering the factors at play. However, I might be underestimating the impact of Rodgers' competitive drive and financial incentives. Additionally, the base rate of NFL players returning from injury or sitting out due to team dynamics is relatively high. Considering these factors, I might be too cautious.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 US Grand Prix, considering the current state of the Formula 1 season, his performance in previous races, and the characteristics of the Circuit of The Americas track? What are the key factors that might influence his chances of winning, and how do they impact his likelihood of success?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

* Red Bull Racing's car performance: The team's car might not be optimized for the Circuit of The Americas track, which could hinder Verstappen's chances of winning. (Strength: 6/10)
* Competition from other drivers: Verstappen will face stiff competition from other top drivers, such as Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton, who might have a better understanding of the track or a more competitive car. (Strength: 7/10)
* Unpredictability of racing: Formula 1 is inherently unpredictable, and a single mistake or unexpected event could cost Verstappen a chance at winning. (Strength: 8/10)
* Weather conditions: Inclement weather could affect the track conditions, making it difficult for Verstappen to maintain a competitive pace. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

* Verstappen's past performance: Max Verstappen has a strong record of success in Formula 1, including multiple wins and a World Drivers' Championship title. (Strength: 9/10)
* Red Bull Racing's car performance: Despite potential issues with the car's optimization for the Circuit of The Americas, Red Bull Racing has shown impressive speed and consistency throughout the season. (Strength: 8/10)
* Verstappen's experience and adaptability: As a seasoned driver, Verstappen has demonstrated his ability to adapt to different tracks and conditions, which could help him navigate the challenges of the Circuit of The Americas. (Strength: 8/10)
* Home advantage: Although not a significant factor in this case, Verstappen's familiarity with the track and the support of the Dutch fans might give him an psychological edge. (Strength: 4/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for and against Verstappen winning the 2023 US Grand Prix, it seems that his past performance, Red Bull Racing's car performance, and his experience and adaptability are significant advantages. However, the competition from other drivers, the unpredictability of racing, and potential issues with the car's optimization for the track are notable challenges. Overall, the factors in favor of Verstappen winning seem to outweigh the factors against him, but the margin is relatively close.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Max Verstappen winning the 2023 US Grand Prix to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon reflection, I realize that my initial probability might be too low, given the strength of Verstappen's advantages. The base rate of Verstappen's success in Formula 1 is relatively high, and his past performance and experience suggest that he is a strong contender for the win. However, the competition from other drivers and the potential issues with the car's optimization for the track could still affect his chances. To balance these factors, I might adjust my initial probability upwards, but not excessively so, as the competition is still fierce.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) be approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by January 15th, 2024, considering the current regulatory environment, the SEC's past decisions on similar ETF proposals, and any recent developments in the cryptocurrency market? The question is based on the assumption that the SEC's decision is the primary factor influencing the approval of a spot BTC ETF.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

   a. The SEC's history of rejecting spot BTC ETF proposals: The SEC has consistently rejected spot BTC ETF proposals in the past, citing concerns about market manipulation and lack of regulation in the cryptocurrency market. (Strength: 4)
   b. Regulatory uncertainty: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is still evolving, and the SEC might need more time to develop clear guidelines for spot BTC ETFs. (Strength: 3)
   c. Potential opposition from institutional investors: Some institutional investors might be hesitant to invest in a spot BTC ETF due to concerns about market volatility and lack of regulation. (Strength: 2)
   d. SEC's focus on investor protection: The SEC's primary concern is investor protection, and the agency might be cautious about approving a spot BTC ETF that could potentially expose investors to significant risks. (Strength: 4)
   e. SEC's recent actions: The SEC has taken a more cautious approach to cryptocurrency regulation in recent months, which might indicate a higher likelihood of rejecting a spot BTC ETF proposal. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

   a. Growing institutional investment in cryptocurrencies: Institutional investors are increasingly investing in cryptocurrencies, which might lead the SEC to approve a spot BTC ETF to facilitate this trend. (Strength: 4)
   b. SEC's recent approvals of other ETFs: The SEC has approved several ETFs in the past year, which might indicate a more favorable regulatory environment for new products. (Strength: 3)
   c. Increased public support for cryptocurrency regulation: The growing popularity of cryptocurrencies has led to increased public support for regulation, which might put pressure on the SEC to approve a spot BTC ETF. (Strength: 2)
   d. Potential benefits for the U.S. economy: A spot BTC ETF could attract more investment in the U.S. economy, which might lead the SEC to approve it as a way to promote economic growth. (Strength: 3)
   e. SEC's chairman's comments: SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has expressed openness to approving a spot BTC ETF, which might indicate a more favorable regulatory environment. (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons for a "no" outcome are stronger, with a total strength rating of 20 (4+3+2+4+3), while the reasons for a "yes" outcome have a total strength rating of 16 (4+3+2+3+4). This suggests that the regulatory environment and the SEC's past decisions are more likely to influence the outcome.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of a spot BTC ETF being approved by January 15th, 2024, as 30.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 30 might be considered not confident enough, given the potential for institutional investors to drive the approval of a spot BTC ETF. However, the base rate of the event is relatively low, as the SEC has consistently rejected spot BTC ETF proposals in the past.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Cincinnati Bengals beat the Minnesota Vikings in their NFL Week 15 game scheduled for December 14, 2023, at Paycor Stadium, starting at 5:15 PST? The game will determine the outcome of the match, and if it ends in a tie, the answer will be "NO". If the game does not have a clear winner, the answer will be "N/A". The current date is September 20, 2023, and the question will be closed on December 16, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be NO (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The Bengals have had inconsistent performance this season, and their recent form might not be strong enough to beat a competitive team like the Vikings (Strength: 3).
- The Vikings have a solid defense, which might limit the Bengals' offense and make it difficult for them to score (Strength: 4).
- The Bengals' quarterback situation might be a concern, and if they struggle with quarterback play, it could affect their chances of winning (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be YES (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The Bengals have a talented offense led by Joe Burrow, who has shown the ability to perform well in big games (Strength: 5).
- The Vikings might be struggling with injuries to key players, which could weaken their chances of winning (Strength: 3).
- The Bengals have a strong home-field advantage at Paycor Stadium, which could give them an edge in the game (Strength: 4).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, as well as the factors mentioned, it seems that the Bengals have a slight edge in this game. Their talented offense and home-field advantage might be enough to overcome the Vikings' strong defense and the Bengals' inconsistencies.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of the Bengals beating the Vikings as 62%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
Upon re-evaluation, I realize that my initial probability might be too low, considering the Bengals' strong offense and home-field advantage. However, I also need to consider the Vikings' solid defense and the Bengals' inconsistent performance. I should also take into account the base rate of the event, which is that NFL games are often closely contested and can go either way.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Max Verstappen lead for more than 43/53 laps at the 2023 Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix (Monza) at any point during the race? This question assesses Max Verstappen's dominance at the Italian Grand Prix, focusing on his ability to lead the race for a significant portion of the 53 laps. The goal is to determine if he will be in the lead position when crossing the racing line at the sector 3 to 1 transition at 43 or more laps, indicating sustained dominance throughout the event.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

- **Reason 1: High competition and unpredictable nature of Formula 1 racing**: The Italian Grand Prix often features tight racing and unpredictable weather conditions, which can lead to unexpected events that may impact Max Verstappen's performance. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 2: Other strong drivers and teams**: Other top Formula 1 drivers, such as Charles Leclerc, Fernando Alonso, and Sergio Pérez, might be able to challenge Verstappen and potentially take the lead. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 3: Mechanical issues or accidents**: Verstappen or his team might experience mechanical issues or accidents that could cause him to fall behind or lose the lead. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 4: Strategic decisions and pit stops**: Strategic decisions regarding pit stops and tire management might impact Verstappen's position in the race. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

- **Reason 1: Max Verstappen's past performance**: Verstappen has shown impressive dominance in previous races, indicating his ability to lead and maintain a strong position. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 2: Red Bull Racing's competitive edge**: Red Bull Racing has been a top-performing team this season, with Verstappen driving for the team. (Strength: 9/10)
- **Reason 3: Monza's track characteristics**: Monza's track layout, with its high-speed straights and challenging corners, might favor Verstappen's driving style and the Red Bull Racing car. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 4: Verstappen's experience and adaptability**: Verstappen has extensive experience in Formula 1 and has shown his ability to adapt to different racing conditions. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, I would rate the overall strength of the arguments as follows:
- Yes: 7.6/10
- No: 4.4/10

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be 70%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability seems relatively high, considering the competition and unpredictability of Formula 1 racing. However, Verstappen's past performance and Red Bull Racing's competitive edge are significant factors that contribute to my initial assessment. I will take a more cautious approach in my final prediction.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Nasdaq Composite index reach or surpass the level of 13775 or higher by the end of trading on or before July 14, 2023, considering the current information available up to July 12, 2023, and the recent trading data provided (Nasdaq Composite close on July 7, 2023: 13660.72, high on July 7, 2023: 13804.51)? The resolution criteria for this question are not available.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Reason 1: Market volatility can be unpredictable and might lead to a downturn before the target date. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 2: Economic indicators and global events might negatively impact the stock market, causing a decline in the Nasdaq Composite. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 3: Historically, the stock market has experienced corrections and downturns, which might occur before the target date. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Reason 1: The recent high on July 7, 2023, of 13804.51 suggests a strong upward trend, which might continue. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 2: The Nasdaq Composite has shown resilience and growth in the past, indicating a potential for continued growth. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 3: Positive economic indicators and global events might support the growth of the stock market. (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the provided information and the reasons listed above, it seems that the reasons for the Nasdaq Composite reaching or surpassing 13775 are somewhat balanced by the potential for market volatility and downturns. However, the recent high and the resilience of the Nasdaq Composite suggest a slight inclination towards a positive outcome.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would initially predict a 55% chance of the Nasdaq Composite reaching or surpassing 13775 by the end of trading on or before July 14, 2023.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 55% might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the potential for significant market fluctuations and downturns. However, it is also not excessively confident, as it acknowledges the recent positive trend and resilience of the Nasdaq Composite.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the evaluation above, I would adjust the initial probability to a more cautious yet still optimistic stance. *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Buffalo Bills beat the Denver Broncos in their Week 10 game, which is scheduled to take place at Highmark Stadium on November 13, 2023, at 5:15 PM PST? The game will have a definitive winner, and a tie will resolve to 'NO.' However, if the game does not have a winner (e.g., due to a draw or other unforeseen circumstances), it will resolve to 'N/A.' Given the current date is September 20, 2023, and the question's close date is November 14, 2023, we will consider various factors to make an informed prediction.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, with 5 being the strongest reason):
- The Denver Broncos have a strong defense, which could limit the Bills' offense. (Strength: 4)
- The Broncos' quarterback, Russell Wilson, has experience in big games and might lead his team to a win. (Strength: 3)
- The Bills have struggled with consistency in the past, which could affect their performance in this game. (Strength: 2)
- The Broncos have been improving throughout the season and might have gained momentum. (Strength: 3)
- The Bills might be overconfident due to their previous success, leading to a potential letdown. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, with 5 being the strongest reason):
- The Bills have a strong offense led by Josh Allen, which could outscore the Broncos. (Strength: 5)
- The Bills have been performing well this season, with a strong team chemistry. (Strength: 4)
- The Broncos have struggled with injuries and might be missing key players in this game. (Strength: 4)
- The Bills have a solid home-field advantage at Highmark Stadium. (Strength: 3)
- The Broncos might be facing a tough schedule, which could affect their performance in this game. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the factors mentioned above, the Bills' strong offense, home-field advantage, and the Broncos' potential injuries and tough schedule might give the Bills an edge. However, the Broncos' strong defense and Russell Wilson's experience could make this a competitive game. The Bills' consistency issues and potential overconfidence also pose a risk.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Bills beating the Broncos as 62%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 62% seems reasonable, given the balanced analysis. However, it might be slightly too confident, as there are several factors that could affect the outcome of the game. The base rate of the event is not explicitly mentioned, but considering the NFL's competitive nature, it's likely that the Bills will win some games and lose others.

7. Final prediction:
*0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Latvia win against Canada in their group stage match at the 2023 FIBA World Cup on August 29, 2023? Given the information available up to August 27, 2023, what is the likelihood of Latvia emerging victorious in this game?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-10 for strength, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- Latvia's overall team performance in the tournament could be unpredictable, and they might struggle to find their rhythm (Strength: 4)
- Canada has a stronger basketball tradition and a more established team with more experienced players (Strength: 8)
- Latvia might face difficulties in defending against Canada's offense, which could lead to a high-scoring game (Strength: 6)
- Latvia's team chemistry and cohesion might not be as strong as Canada's, affecting their performance (Strength: 5)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-10 for strength, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- Latvia has shown potential in previous international competitions, and their team could surprise Canada (Strength: 7)
- Latvia's players might have an advantage in terms of speed and agility, which could give them an edge over Canada (Strength: 5)
- Latvia's coach has a solid strategy, and their team might be well-prepared for the match (Strength: 6)
- Latvia's team has a strong home crowd support, which could give them an emotional boost (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" outcome, it seems that Canada's stronger basketball tradition and more experienced players give them an initial advantage. However, Latvia's potential, team speed, and coach's strategy could make the game competitive. The home crowd support might also play a role. The overall strength of the "no" reasons seems slightly higher than the "yes" reasons, but Latvia's potential for an upset cannot be ruled out.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would initially estimate the probability of Latvia winning at around 25%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 25% might be considered relatively low, as it does not fully account for Latvia's potential for an upset. However, it also does not overestimate their chances based on Canada's stronger team profile. Considering the base rate of upsets in sports, it's essential to be cautious when predicting outcomes. The initial probability seems to strike a balance between these factors.

7. Final prediction:
*0.30*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.3
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will a new F-Zero game, with the title "F-Zero" and published and/or developed by Nintendo, be released before January 1st, 2027, in any timezone? The question is based on the history of the F-Zero series, which has seen six mainline games released since 1990, with the most recent one in 2004. The question will resolve as "YES" if such a game is released before the specified date and "NO" otherwise.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- Reason 1: Lack of recent F-Zero releases and updates (Strength: 8/10). The last mainline F-Zero game was released in 2004, and there have been no significant updates or announcements about a new game in the series since then. This suggests a lack of interest or focus on the series from Nintendo.
- Reason 2: Nintendo's focus on other franchises (Strength: 6/10). Nintendo has a wide range of popular franchises, such as Mario, Zelda, and Pokémon, which might be taking priority over F-Zero. This could mean that resources and attention are being directed towards other projects.
- Reason 3: Industry trends and competition (Strength: 4/10). The gaming industry is highly competitive, and Nintendo might be focusing on other genres or franchises that are more popular or profitable. This could lead to a lack of investment in the F-Zero series.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- Reason 1: Nintendo's commitment to classic franchises (Strength: 9/10). Nintendo has a history of reviving and updating classic franchises, such as Super Mario and The Legend of Zelda. Given the F-Zero series' cult following and nostalgic value, it's possible that Nintendo might choose to revive it.
- Reason 2: Potential for new gameplay mechanics and innovations (Strength: 7/10). The F-Zero series has a unique blend of high-speed racing and futuristic settings, which could be updated and innovated upon to appeal to modern gamers.
- Reason 3: Fan demand and community engagement (Strength: 5/10). The F-Zero series has a dedicated fan base, and social media and online platforms can make it easier for fans to express their interest and demand a new game.

4. Aggregated considerations:

- The lack of recent F-Zero releases and updates is a significant concern, but Nintendo's commitment to classic franchises and potential for new gameplay mechanics and innovations provide a counterbalance.
- Industry trends and competition are a factor, but Nintendo's ability to adapt and innovate has allowed it to succeed in the past.
- Fan demand and community engagement are important, but they might not be enough to overcome the other factors.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:

- The initial probability of 40 seems reasonable given the mixed signals and factors at play.
- However, it's worth considering the base rate of new game releases in the F-Zero series. Given the history of the series, it's not extremely low, but it's also not extremely high.
- The calculated probability might be on the conservative side, given the potential for Nintendo to surprise and innovate.

7. Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Fabiano Caruana successfully defend his title as the US Chess Champion in the 2023 US Chess Championship, which is scheduled to take place between October 5-18, 2023? The tournament will determine the winner based on the number of points earned from the 11-round tournament. The market may close or resolve early if Caruana clinches the title with rounds to spare, if he is mathematically eliminated, or if he withdraws from the tournament. Given the information provided, what is the likelihood that Fabiano Caruana will emerge as the champion for a second consecutive year?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Reason 1: Strong competition from other players (4/5): The US Chess Championship features a strong field of chess players, and Caruana may face stiff competition from other talented opponents. This could make it challenging for him to defend his title.
- Reason 2: Caruana's recent performance (3/5): While Caruana has been a strong player in the past, his recent performance may not have been as impressive. This could indicate a decline in his skills, making it harder for him to win the championship.
- Reason 3: Injuries or health issues (2/5): Chess players often require a high level of physical and mental fitness to perform at their best. If Caruana is experiencing any health issues or injuries, it could negatively impact his performance and chances of winning the championship.
- Reason 4: Overconfidence or complacency (1/5): As a previous champion, Caruana may feel confident or complacent, which could lead to a decrease in his focus and performance. This might make it easier for other players to challenge him for the title.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Reason 1: Caruana's past performance (5/5): As a previous champion, Caruana has already demonstrated his ability to perform well in the US Chess Championship. This experience and familiarity with the tournament format could give him an edge over his competitors.
- Reason 2: Caruana's skills and experience (5/5): Fabiano Caruana is a highly skilled chess player with extensive experience in international competitions. His knowledge and expertise would be valuable assets in the US Chess Championship.
- Reason 3: Preparation and training (4/5): Caruana has likely been preparing and training for the championship, which would help him to refine his skills and strategies. This preparation could give him a significant advantage over his opponents.
- Reason 4: Home-field advantage (3/5): As a US-based player, Caruana may have an advantage due to familiarity with the tournament environment and local conditions.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons provided, it seems that Caruana's past performance, skills, and experience are significant advantages in his favor. However, the strong competition, his recent performance, and potential health issues are potential drawbacks. The reasons for a "yes" answer seem stronger than those for a "no" answer.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the initial probability of Fabiano Caruana winning the US Chess Championship as 65.

6. Evaluation and refinement:
Upon reflection, I realize that the initial probability might be too high, considering the strong competition and potential drawbacks. The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of Caruana winning the championship) is not explicitly provided, but it's likely to be low given the number of participants and the difficulty of the tournament. Additionally, the fact that the market may close or resolve early if Caruana clinches the title with rounds to spare or is mathematically eliminated suggests that the outcome is not entirely certain. Considering these factors, I would adjust the initial probability downward.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Kansas City Chiefs defeat the Miami Dolphins in their NFL Week 9 game on November 5, 2023, at Deutsche Bank Park, which starts at 06:30 PST? The game's outcome will determine whether the answer is yes or no. A tie will result in a no, while a game without a winner will result in N/A.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The Miami Dolphins have a strong defense, which might be able to contain the Kansas City Chiefs' high-powered offense (Strength: 4). 
- The Chiefs have had inconsistent performances this season, which might affect their ability to win against a tough opponent (Strength: 4).
- The Dolphins have been improving their team's performance, and this could be a turning point in their season (Strength: 3).
- The game will be played at Deutsche Bank Park, which might not favor the Chiefs (Strength: 2).
- The Chiefs might be looking ahead to their next game, which could affect their focus (Strength: 1).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The Kansas City Chiefs have a strong offense, led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has a history of performing well under pressure (Strength: 5).
- The Chiefs have a more experienced team and a well-established system, which could give them an advantage (Strength: 4).
- The Dolphins have struggled on the road this season, which might make it difficult for them to win at Deutsche Bank Park (Strength: 3).
- The Chiefs have a strong home record, which could give them an edge in their own stadium (Strength: 3).
- Patrick Mahomes has a good track record of performing well in high-pressure situations, which could help the Chiefs win (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Kansas City Chiefs have a strong offense and a well-established system, which gives them an advantage. However, the Miami Dolphins have a strong defense and have been improving their team's performance. The Chiefs' inconsistent performances this season and the Dolphins' ability to contain the Chiefs' offense are also concerns. Considering these factors, the Chiefs have a slight advantage, but the game could go either way.

5. Initial probability: 62

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability is based on the aggregated considerations. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully capture the potential impact of the Dolphins' improving performance and the Chiefs' inconsistency. The base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of the Chiefs winning any game) is not significantly different from the initial probability.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the game against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season, which is scheduled to take place on November 30, 2023, at AT&T Stadium, starting at 5:15 PST? The resolution criteria state that the answer will be 'NO' if the game ends in a tie, and 'N/A' if the game does not have a winner. However, since the resolution criteria for a tie are provided, we will assume that the game will have a winner.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1 to 5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Reason 1: The Seattle Seahawks have a strong defense, which could limit the Cowboys' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 2: The Cowboys have struggled with consistency throughout the season, which might affect their performance in this game. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 3: The game is taking place in a neutral location (AT&T Stadium), which might not favor the Cowboys as much as their home stadium. (Strength: 2)
- Reason 4: The Seahawks have a good record against the Cowboys in recent years. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1 to 5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Reason 1: The Cowboys have a strong offense led by quarterback Dak Prescott, which could exploit the Seahawks' defense. (Strength: 5)
- Reason 2: The Cowboys have a good record at home, which might give them an advantage in this game. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 3: The Seahawks have struggled with injuries to key players this season, which could affect their performance. (Strength: 3)
- Reason 4: The Cowboys have a strong running game, which could help them control the clock and wear down the Seahawks' defense. (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons provided, the Cowboys have a slight advantage due to their strong offense and home record. However, the Seahawks' strong defense and recent success against the Cowboys are factors that could impact the game. The aggregated considerations suggest that the game is relatively evenly matched, but the Cowboys might have a slight edge.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Cowboys winning as 62%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 62% seems reasonable given the evenly matched teams and the factors that could affect the game. However, it's worth considering the base rate of NFL games, which is roughly 50%. This means that the probability of the Cowboys winning is slightly higher than the base rate, which is consistent with the aggregated considerations.

7. Final prediction:
*0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Los Angeles Rams defeat the New Orleans Saints in their Week 16 matchup at SoFi Stadium on December 21, 2023, at 5:15 PST? If the game ends in a tie, the answer will be NO. If the game does not have a declared winner (e.g., due to a cancellation or an unresolved outcome), the answer will be N/A. Given the current date is September 20, 2023, and the question's deadline is December 22, 2023, we will evaluate the likelihood of the Rams beating the Saints based on available information up to the question's deadline.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

- The Saints have a strong offense, which might allow them to outscore the Rams. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Saints have a solid defense that could potentially limit the Rams' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Rams might be struggling with injuries or team cohesion, which could impact their performance. (Strength: 4/10)
- The Saints have a history of competing well against the Rams, making this a competitive matchup. (Strength: 7/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

- The Rams have a strong defense that could limit the Saints' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Rams have a talented offense, led by quarterback Matthew Stafford, which could outscore the Saints. (Strength: 9/10)
- The Rams have home-field advantage at SoFi Stadium, which could give them an edge. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Saints might be struggling with injuries or team cohesion, which could impact their performance. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Rams' strong offense and home-field advantage are significant factors. However, the Saints' solid defense and offense, as well as their history of competing well against the Rams, make this a competitive matchup. The Rams' potential struggles with injuries or team cohesion also add uncertainty to the outcome.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially predict that the Rams will beat the Saints with a probability of 62%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the competitive nature of the matchup and the potential impact of injuries or team cohesion on both teams. However, it also does not overestimate the Rams' chances, considering the Saints' strengths.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will a drone attack occur at any building in Moscow between August 1st, 2023, and August 7th, 2023, before 12:00 AM Moscow time?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- **Reason 1: Lack of recent drone attacks in Moscow** (Strength: 3): There have been no recent reports of drone attacks in Moscow, which might indicate a low likelihood of another attack occurring soon.
- **Reason 2: Russian military presence** (Strength: 4): Moscow is a heavily militarized city with a strong air defense system, which could deter potential drone attacks.
- **Reason 3: Limited drone capabilities** (Strength: 2): The capabilities and range of drones used in previous attacks might be limited, making it difficult for them to reach Moscow.
- **Reason 4: Geographical challenges** (Strength: 3): Moscow is a large city with a complex geography, which could make it difficult for drones to navigate and reach their targets.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- **Reason 1: Ongoing conflict in Ukraine** (Strength: 5): The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to increased tensions and potential for retaliation, which could result in drone attacks.
- **Reason 2: Previous drone attacks in Russia** (Strength: 4): There have been previous drone attacks in Russia, indicating that the capability to launch such attacks exists.
- **Reason 3: Global drone technology advancements** (Strength: 3): Advances in drone technology have made it easier and more accessible for various groups to acquire and use drones for attacks.
- **Reason 4: Potential retaliation for recent events** (Strength: 4): Recent events, such as the Wagner Group's mutiny, could lead to retaliation from various groups, including potential drone attacks.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the likelihood of a drone attack in Moscow between August 1st and August 7th, 2023, seems to be moderate. The presence of strong reasons both for and against the event makes it challenging to predict with certainty.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would initially estimate the probability of a drone attack in Moscow between August 1st and August 7th, 2023, to be around 40%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively low, considering the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the previous drone attacks in Russia. This might be due to overemphasizing the deterrent effect of Moscow's military presence and underestimating the potential for retaliation or the capabilities of various groups. The base rate of drone attacks in Moscow is also not explicitly known, which could affect the forecast.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Indianapolis Colts beat the Los Angeles Rams in their Week 4 NFL game on October 1, 2023, at Lucas Oil Stadium, which starts at 10:00 PDT? The game will not have a winner if it ends in a tie. I need to consider the team's current performances, injuries, and past head-to-head matchups, as well as any other relevant factors that might influence the outcome.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The Los Angeles Rams have a strong defense, which could limit the Colts' scoring opportunities (Strength: 4).
- The Rams have a more experienced quarterback, Matthew Stafford, who has a history of performing well in big games (Strength: 3).
- The Colts have struggled with consistency in their offense, which might make it difficult for them to score enough points to beat the Rams (Strength: 3).
- The Rams have a strong home-field advantage, which could give them an edge in the game (Strength: 2).
- The Colts might be facing a tougher schedule, which could affect their overall performance and preparation (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The Colts have a strong running game, which could help them control the clock and wear down the Rams' defense (Strength: 4).
- The Colts' quarterback, Gardner Minshew, has shown flashes of brilliance in his career, and he might be able to outplay Matthew Stafford (Strength: 3).
- The Rams have struggled with injuries to key players, which could affect their overall performance (Strength: 3).
- The Colts have a strong defensive line, which could help them put pressure on the Rams' quarterback and limit their scoring opportunities (Strength: 2).
- The Colts have a good track record of performing well in big games, which could give them an edge (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, I would say that the Rams have a slight advantage due to their strong defense and experienced quarterback. However, the Colts have a strong running game and a good defensive line, which could help them keep the game close. I would also consider the Rams' injuries and the Colts' ability to perform well in big games.

5. Initial probability:
Based on my aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Colts beating the Rams at around 40%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability seems relatively low, considering the Colts' strengths and the Rams' weaknesses. However, I am also considering the Rams' strong defense and experienced quarterback, which could be a significant factor in the game. I might be underestimating the Rams' chances. Additionally, I should consider the base rate of the Colts beating the Rams, which is around 50% based on their past head-to-head matchups.

7. Final prediction:
*0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States be elected before October 14, 2023?

Given the current date of October 8, 2023, and the question's close date of October 15, 2023, I will consider the likelihood of the Speaker of the House being elected before the close date. This involves analyzing the typical procedures and timelines for electing a Speaker in the US House of Representatives.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (weak reasons):
- The election of a Speaker can be delayed due to disagreements among lawmakers, which might lead to a prolonged process. (Strength: 2/10)
- There may be unexpected events or circumstances that could hinder the election process, such as a member's sudden resignation or a party leadership change. (Strength: 2/10)
- The House of Representatives has not always strictly adhered to a specific timeline for electing a Speaker in the past. (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strong reasons):
- The Speaker election typically occurs shortly after the House of Representatives convenes, usually at the beginning of each new Congress. (Strength: 8/10)
- The current Speaker election is likely to follow the standard procedure, given that there are no known major obstacles or disputes among lawmakers. (Strength: 7/10)
- The US House of Representatives has a well-established process for electing a Speaker, which involves a majority vote among the members. (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the typical procedures and timelines for electing a Speaker, the standard process, and the lack of known obstacles, the likelihood of the Speaker being elected before the close date seems high. However, the possibility of unexpected events or disagreements among lawmakers cannot be entirely ruled out.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of the Speaker being elected before October 14, 2023, to be 85.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 85% might be considered moderately confident. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of Speaker elections, which typically occur without major issues. The base rate might influence the final probability, making it more likely that the Speaker will be elected on time.

7. Final prediction:
*0.9*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.9
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Fernando Alonso win his 33rd Formula 1 (F1) race in the 2023 season, given that he has won 32 F1 races in his entire career, with the last one being in 2013, and he has won six F1 podiums this year, which is a significant improvement over his performance since 2014? With 10 F1 races left in the 2023 season out of a total of 24, what are the chances that Alonso will achieve his 33rd F1 win this year?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Alonso's last F1 win was in 2013, and he has not been able to replicate that success since. (Strength: 4)
- Alonso has won six F1 podiums this year, but winning a race is a different challenge altogether, and he may not be able to convert his podiums into a win. (Strength: 3)
- The competition in F1 is extremely high, and it's possible that other drivers may perform better and make it difficult for Alonso to win. (Strength: 5)
- Alonso's team, Aston Martin, may not have the fastest car this year, which could hinder his chances of winning. (Strength: 3)
- Alonso's age (he was born in 1981) may be a factor, as he may not be as competitive as he was in his younger years. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Alonso has shown significant improvement this year with six podiums, which suggests that he may be able to win a race. (Strength: 4)
- Alonso has a strong driving record, and it's not impossible for him to win his 33rd F1 race. (Strength: 3)
- With 10 F1 races left, Alonso has plenty of opportunities to win, and he may be able to capitalize on one of these chances. (Strength: 4)
- Alonso's experience and skill may allow him to adapt to any changes in the car or track conditions, which could give him an edge over his competitors. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons for a "no" answer are more significant, with a total strength rating of 17 (4+3+5+3+2). The reasons for a "yes" answer have a total strength rating of 14 (4+3+4+3). However, it's essential to consider that Alonso's recent improvement and his strong driving record may offset some of the factors working against him.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Fernando Alonso winning his 33rd F1 race this year as 25%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability of 25% may be considered not confident enough, given the significant improvement Alonso has shown this year. However, it's also essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is extremely low, given Alonso's last win was in 2013. The calculated probability should be adjusted to reflect this.

7. Final prediction:
*0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Barcelona score more goals than Celta Vigo during regular time on Saturday, September 23, 2023, in their La Liga match?

Given the information provided:
- Date: Saturday, September 23, 2023
- Start Time (UTC): 16:30
- Competition: La Liga
- Market Resolution: The market resolves to YES if Barcelona has more goals than Celta Vigo at the end of regular time plus stoppage time. It resolves to NO if both teams have an equal number of goals or Celta Vigo has more goals.
- Market Closing Time: The market will close automatically 180 minutes after kickoff, but it may resolve before the closing time if the resolution criteria are met.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rating strength 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- Celta Vigo has a decent defense and might be able to contain Barcelona's attack (Strength: 6). 
- Celta Vigo has shown resilience in previous matches, often coming back from behind to draw or win (Strength: 7).
- Barcelona might struggle to find their rhythm and scoring form, especially after a recent dip in performance (Strength: 5).
- Celta Vigo has a solid home record and might be able to take advantage of the home crowd (Strength: 8).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rating strength 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- Barcelona is a strong attacking team with many skilled players, including Robert Lewandowski and Ansu Fati (Strength: 9).
- Barcelona has a good record in La Liga and has been performing well in recent matches (Strength: 8).
- Celta Vigo might struggle to contain Barcelona's pace and pressure, which could lead to scoring opportunities (Strength: 6).
- Barcelona has a strong squad depth and might be able to rotate players to keep their energy levels high (Strength: 7).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the home advantage of Celta Vigo, and Barcelona's recent form, I believe that the match is likely to be competitive. However, Barcelona's attacking prowess and recent performances give them an edge. I would rate the likelihood of Barcelona scoring more goals than Celta Vigo during regular time as 65%.

5. Initial probability: 65

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability might be too confident, as it doesn't fully account for the uncertainty and unpredictability of football matches. Additionally, the home advantage of Celta Vigo and their resilience in previous matches might be underweighted in my initial assessment. I should also consider the base rate of the event, which is around 50% (since the market is essentially a coin flip). However, given the differences in team strength and recent form, I believe my initial probability is reasonable.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Chicago Bears defeat the Minnesota Vikings in their NFL Week 6 game on October 15, 2023, at Soldier Field, which starts at 10:00 PDT? The game outcome is required to determine the resolution of the question. If the game ends in a tie, the answer will be "NO." If the game does not have a clear winner, the answer will be "N/A." The question will be resolved based on the actual outcome of the game.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

* The Chicago Bears have struggled in the past few seasons, and their recent performance might indicate they are not a strong contender in the league (Strength: 6).
* The Minnesota Vikings have a strong offense and a decent defense, which could give them an advantage over the Bears (Strength: 8).
* The Bears' quarterback might not be performing well, which could impact the team's overall performance (Strength: 5).
* The Vikings have a good track record against the Bears in recent years (Strength: 9).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

* The Bears have made some significant roster changes and improvements during the offseason, which could give them an edge (Strength: 7).
* The Vikings might be facing injuries to key players, which could weaken their team (Strength: 6).
* The Bears have a strong defensive line, which could help them contain the Vikings' offense (Strength: 8).
* The home-field advantage at Soldier Field could give the Bears an extra boost (Strength: 4).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that the Vikings have a slight edge over the Bears due to their strong offense and past performance against the Bears. However, the Bears' recent roster changes and home-field advantage could give them a chance to win. The key factors to watch will be the performance of the quarterbacks and the impact of any injuries to key players.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of the Bears beating the Vikings as 55.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 55 seems reasonable, considering the factors mentioned above. However, it might be on the lower side, given the Bears' recent improvements and home-field advantage. The base rate of the event (i.e., the Bears beating the Vikings) is not explicitly known, but it's likely to be around 40-50% based on their past performance. This suggests that the initial probability might be slightly conservative.

7. Final prediction:
*0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Miami Dolphins win the NFL game against the Carolina Panthers at Hard Rock Stadium on October 15, 2023, at 10:00 PDT, resulting in a definitive winner and not a tie, considering the current date is September 11, 2023, and the game ending in a tie or without a winner will resolve to 'N/A'.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rating strength: 1-5, 5 being the strongest):
- The Miami Dolphins have a relatively young and developing team, which might struggle against more experienced opponents. (Strength: 3)
- The Panthers have a strong defense and could potentially limit the Dolphins' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 4)
- The Dolphins might struggle with consistency, which could lead to a loss against a competitive team like the Panthers. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rating strength: 1-5, 5 being the strongest):
- The Dolphins have shown some impressive performances this season, which indicates they have the potential to beat a team like the Panthers. (Strength: 4)
- The Panthers have struggled with injuries and inconsistent play this season, which could give the Dolphins an advantage. (Strength: 4)
- The Dolphins have a strong home-field advantage at Hard Rock Stadium, which could boost their chances of winning. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, both teams have valid arguments for winning. The Dolphins' potential, Panthers' injuries, and home-field advantage are countered by the Panthers' strong defense and the Dolphins' youth and inconsistency. It's essential to consider the current season's performance and team dynamics.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of the Dolphins beating the Panthers at around 55%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability might be considered somewhat confident, but it's essential to consider the unpredictability of NFL games and the potential for upsets. The base rate of the event (a team winning a single game) is relatively high, but the specific matchup and factors involved might influence the outcome.

7. Final prediction:
*0.58*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.58
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Yahya Sinwar continue to act as the Chief of Hamas in the Gaza Strip by January 1, 2024? This question will resolve as Yes if, by January 1, 2024, credible sources report that Yahya Sinwar is still holding his position as the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and there is no credible reporting of his replacement, capture by Israel, or death. The question will resolve as No if, by January 1, 2024, credible sources report that Yahya Sinwar has stepped down, been replaced, captured, or died.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- Reason 1: Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip could lead to Sinwar's capture or death (Strength: 6/10). Israel has a history of targeted killings and military operations in Gaza, which could potentially lead to Sinwar's demise.
- Reason 2: Hamas internal power struggles could lead to Sinwar's removal (Strength: 4/10). Hamas has a history of internal power struggles, and it's possible that Sinwar could be replaced by a more hardline or moderate faction.
- Reason 3: International pressure and diplomatic efforts could lead to Sinwar's ouster (Strength: 3/10). The international community has been critical of Hamas's actions, and there may be efforts to pressure Sinwar to step down or be replaced.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

- Reason 1: Sinwar's leadership has been relatively stable, and there is no indication of any major challenges to his position (Strength: 8/10). Sinwar has been the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip since 2017, and there have been no major reports of internal power struggles or challenges to his leadership.
- Reason 2: Hamas's military strength and control over the Gaza Strip make it difficult for Israel to remove Sinwar (Strength: 9/10). Hamas has a strong military presence in the Gaza Strip, and Israel may be reluctant to launch a military operation that could lead to a wider conflict.
- Reason 3: Sinwar's age and health could lead to his eventual retirement or incapacitation (Strength: 2/10). Sinwar is in his 60s, and it's possible that he may retire or become incapacitated due to health reasons, leading to a change in leadership.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Taking into account the reasons above, I believe that the most significant factors are Sinwar's stable leadership and Hamas's military strength, which make it difficult for Israel to remove him. However, the potential for Israeli military operations and internal power struggles within Hamas cannot be ruled out entirely.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the initial probability of the answer being yes to be 70.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
My initial probability of 70% may be too high, considering the potential for Israeli military operations and internal power struggles within Hamas. The base rate of leadership changes in Hamas is also relatively low, as leaders tend to hold their positions for extended periods. However, the specific circumstances of Sinwar's leadership and Hamas's military strength make it difficult to predict with certainty.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the San Francisco 49ers defeat the Seattle Seahawks in their Week 14 matchup at Levi's Stadium on December 10, 2023, at 1:05 PST, considering all relevant factors and possible outcomes, including a tie or a game without a winner due to unforeseen circumstances?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Seattle Seahawks have shown resilience in the past and might pull off an upset. (Strength: 3)
- The 49ers' performance might be affected by injuries or fatigue from previous games. (Strength: 2)
- The Seahawks have a strong defense, which could hinder the 49ers' offense. (Strength: 4)
- The 49ers might struggle with consistency and make mistakes that the Seahawks could capitalize on. (Strength: 2)
- The Seahawks have a history of performing well against the 49ers in recent years. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The 49ers have a strong offense, led by quarterback Brock Purdy, which could outscore the Seahawks. (Strength: 5)
- The 49ers have a solid defense, which could contain the Seahawks' offense. (Strength: 4)
- The 49ers have home-field advantage at Levi's Stadium, which could give them an edge. (Strength: 3)
- The Seahawks might struggle with consistency and make mistakes that the 49ers could capitalize on. (Strength: 2)
- The 49ers have a strong running game, which could wear down the Seahawks' defense. (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the 49ers' offense and defense appear to have an edge. However, the Seahawks' resilience and strong defense could make this a competitive game. The home-field advantage and the 49ers' running game also give them an advantage. The probability of an upset is possible but not highly likely.

5. Initial probability: 70

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 70 might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the 49ers' strong offense and home-field advantage. However, it also does not overestimate the Seahawks' chances of an upset. Considering the base rate of the event, which is a regular season NFL game, the probability should be adjusted accordingly.

7. Final prediction: *0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Oregon Ducks defeat the Washington Huskies in their upcoming 2023 college football matchup at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington on October 14, 2023, at 12:30 PM PDT?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-10, 10 being the strongest):

* The Oregon Ducks might struggle with their passing game, which could give the Washington Huskies an advantage (Strength: 6)
* Washington's home-field advantage at Husky Stadium could boost their team's morale and performance (Strength: 7)
* Oregon might be dealing with injuries or suspensions that could weaken their lineup (Strength: 4)
* The Huskies have a strong defense, which could limit Oregon's scoring opportunities (Strength: 8)
* Oregon's offense might take time to adjust to the Huskies' defensive strategy (Strength: 5)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-10, 10 being the strongest):

* Oregon has a strong running game, which could help them control the clock and wear down the Huskies' defense (Strength: 9)
* The Ducks have a solid passing game with a talented quarterback, which could exploit the Huskies' secondary (Strength: 8)
* Washington's offense might struggle to keep up with Oregon's high-powered attack (Strength: 6)
* Oregon's defense has been improving throughout the season, which could help them contain the Huskies' offense (Strength: 7)
* The Ducks have a strong team morale and coaching, which could give them an edge in a tough matchup (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Taking into account the reasons provided, it seems that the matchup is relatively balanced. However, Oregon's strong running game and passing attack give them a slight edge. The Huskies' home-field advantage and strong defense will make it a challenging game for the Ducks.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 55 seems reasonable, but it might be too low considering Oregon's strong offense. Additionally, the base rate of Oregon winning this game is not provided, but it's likely that they have a higher winning percentage in this matchup. Considering these factors, the initial probability might be too conservative.

7. Final prediction: *0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Adobe complete its acquisition of Figma by the end of 2024, considering the ongoing antitrust investigation by the U.S. Justice Department and Adobe's removal of its competing product Adobe XD from its product lineup? 

    Given the September 2022 agreement for a $20 billion USD acquisition, the U.S. Justice Department's potential antitrust lawsuit to block the deal, and Adobe's decision to discontinue its competing product Adobe XD, I will analyze the likelihood of Adobe acquiring Figma by the end of 2024.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
    a. The U.S. Justice Department's antitrust lawsuit to block the deal (Strength: 8/10): If the lawsuit is successful, it would prevent Adobe from acquiring Figma, making it impossible to complete the acquisition by the end of 2024.
    b. Uncertainty and potential delays in regulatory approval (Strength: 6/10): Even if the lawsuit is not successful, there may be other regulatory hurdles that could delay or prevent the acquisition from being completed by the end of 2024.
    c. Discontinuation of Adobe XD (Strength: 4/10): While Adobe's removal of Adobe XD from its product lineup suggests a potential shift in strategy, it may not be a direct indicator of the acquisition's success or failure.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
    a. Adobe's initial agreement and investment (Strength: 9/10): Adobe has already agreed to purchase Figma for $20 billion USD, demonstrating a significant commitment to the acquisition.
    b. Removal of competing product (Strength: 8/10): By discontinuing Adobe XD, Adobe may be reducing competition and creating a more favorable environment for the acquisition to proceed.
    c. Potential benefits for Adobe (Strength: 7/10): Acquiring Figma could bring significant benefits to Adobe, such as expanding its product offerings and increasing its market share in the design and collaboration space.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that the acquisition is still a strong possibility, but the U.S. Justice Department's antitrust lawsuit and potential regulatory delays pose significant risks. The discontinuation of Adobe XD may be a strategic move to reduce competition, but it is not a direct indicator of the acquisition's success.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, given the competing factors at play. However, it may be overly cautious, as Adobe has already invested heavily in the acquisition and has removed a competing product from its lineup. On the other hand, the antitrust lawsuit and regulatory delays are significant risks that could still prevent the acquisition from being completed.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Seattle Seahawks win their NFL Week 7 game against the Arizona Cardinals, which will take place at Lumen Field on October 22, 2023, at 13:05 PDT? 

Considerations for answering this question include the teams' past performances, their current team statistics, any recent injuries or suspensions, and any other relevant factors that might influence the outcome of the game.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The Seattle Seahawks have had inconsistent performances in recent years, which might indicate a lack of stability in their team dynamics (Strength: 3).
- The Arizona Cardinals have a strong offense, which could give them an advantage in scoring points (Strength: 4).
- The Seahawks have struggled with injuries to key players in the past, which could impact their performance (Strength: 3).
- The Cardinals have a good home record in recent years, which might give them an edge in this game (Strength: 2).
- The Seahawks' defense has been vulnerable to the run, which could be exploited by the Cardinals' running game (Strength: 4).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The Seahawks have a strong home record at Lumen Field, which could give them an advantage in this game (Strength: 4).
- The Cardinals have struggled with consistency in their performances, which might make it difficult for them to win (Strength: 3).
- The Seahawks have a solid defense that has been improving in recent weeks, which could help them contain the Cardinals' offense (Strength: 5).
- The Seahawks' quarterback has been playing well, which could give them an edge in terms of leadership and playmaking ability (Strength: 4).
- The Cardinals have a relatively weak secondary, which the Seahawks' passing game could exploit (Strength: 3).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, it seems that the Seahawks have a slight edge in terms of home-field advantage, defense, and quarterback play. However, the Cardinals' strong offense and potential for a good performance on the road could make this a competitive game. Overall, the Seahawks seem to have a slight advantage.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the Seahawks winning as 62.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems to be fairly confident, but it's possible that there are other factors that could influence the outcome of the game. Considering the base rate of NFL games, it's worth noting that upsets are common, and any team can have a good or bad day. However, the Seahawks' home-field advantage and recent improvements in their defense might give them an edge.

7. Final prediction:
*0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Indianapolis Colts win against the Pittsburgh Steelers in their Week 15 game at Lucas Oil Stadium on December 16, 2023, at 5:15 PST?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have a strong defense, ranking among the top in the league in several categories, which could limit the Colts' offense and make it difficult for them to score. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Colts have struggled with injuries throughout the season, particularly on their offense, which could impact their performance in this game. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Steelers have a more experienced quarterback, Kenny Pickett, who has shown improvement in recent weeks, which could give them an edge over the Colts' defense. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Colts have a tough schedule leading up to this game, with several close losses and a short week to prepare, which could affect their energy and focus. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- The Colts have a strong running game led by Jonathan Taylor, which could help control the clock and wear down the Steelers' defense. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Colts' defense has shown improvement in recent weeks, particularly against the run, which could help them contain the Steelers' offense. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Steelers have struggled with turnovers this season, which could give the Colts opportunities to score and gain an advantage. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Colts have a strong home-field advantage at Lucas Oil Stadium, which could help them gain momentum and energy in this game. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Colts' running game and defense could be key factors in this game. However, the Steelers' strong defense and experienced quarterback could also pose a challenge. The Colts' recent struggles with injuries and a tough schedule leading up to this game are also concerns.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Colts winning at around 55%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident given the uncertainties involved. The Colts' injuries and tough schedule could have a significant impact, and the Steelers' defense and quarterback could be more effective than anticipated. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the average team winning percentage in the NFL), a more conservative estimate might be warranted.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Carolina Panthers win the National Football League (NFL) game against the Houston Texans at Bank of America Stadium on October 29, 2023, at 10:00 PDT, given the current information available up to September 11, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

- The Carolina Panthers have struggled in their recent performances, and their current form might not be strong enough to beat the Houston Texans. (Strength: 4)
- The Houston Texans have a relatively balanced offense and defense, which could pose a challenge for the Panthers. (Strength: 4)
- The Panthers' defense has been inconsistent in the past, which could lead to a high-scoring game and potentially favor the Texans. (Strength: 3)
- The Panthers have a tough schedule ahead, and they might be under a lot of pressure, which could affect their performance. (Strength: 2)
- The game is being played at Bank of America Stadium, which could be a neutral site, but the Panthers might not have the same home-field advantage as they would in their own stadium. (Strength: 1)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

- The Panthers have a strong offense led by their quarterback, which could help them score points against the Texans. (Strength: 4)
- The Texans have struggled on the road this season, which could give the Panthers an advantage. (Strength: 4)
- The Panthers have a solid defense that could contain the Texans' offense. (Strength: 3)
- The Panthers have been improving their defense in recent games, which could help them secure a win. (Strength: 3)
- The Panthers have a good track record against the Texans in the past, which could give them an edge. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations: 
Considering the reasons above, the Panthers' offense and defense have both shown potential, but their consistency has been a concern. The Texans have a balanced team, but they have struggled on the road. The Panthers have a neutral site advantage, which could be beneficial. Overall, it seems like a close game, but the Panthers' offense might have an edge.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be a bit too low. The Panthers' offense has shown potential, and their quarterback is a strong asset. However, their defense has been inconsistent, and the Texans have a balanced team. Considering the Panthers' recent struggles and the Texans' road struggles, the initial probability might be a bit too high. However, it's also worth considering the base rate of the event, which is a win for the Panthers. In the NFL, teams typically win around 50% of their games, so the Panthers' chances are slightly above average.

7. Final prediction: *0.58*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.58
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will the Jacksonville Jaguars defeat the Atlanta Falcons in their NFL Week 4 game at Wembley Stadium on October 1, 2023, at 06:30 PDT?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
   - The Jaguars have struggled in the past against the Falcons, with a 2-14 record in their last 16 meetings. (Strength: 8/10)
   - The Falcons have a strong offense, ranking among the top in the league in terms of scoring and passing yards. (Strength: 7/10)
   - The Jaguars have had issues with consistency and defense, which could be exploited by the Falcons' offense. (Strength: 6/10)
   - The Falcons have a slight advantage in terms of home-field performance, although this game is taking place at Wembley Stadium. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
   - The Jaguars have shown improvement in their defense, ranking among the top 10 in the league in terms of yards allowed. (Strength: 8/10)
   - The Falcons have struggled with injuries, particularly on their offense, which could impact their performance. (Strength: 7/10)
   - The Jaguars have a strong running game, which could help control the clock and limit the Falcons' opportunities. (Strength: 6/10)
   - The Jaguars have a more experienced coach and a more cohesive team, which could give them an edge in terms of strategy and execution. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations: The Jaguars have some strengths, including a strong defense and running game, but the Falcons have a potent offense and a history of success against the Jaguars. The Falcons' injuries and the Jaguars' improvement in defense are significant factors to consider.

5. Initial probability: 45

6. Evaluation of confidence: The initial probability of 45 seems relatively neutral, reflecting the balanced strengths and weaknesses of both teams. However, considering the base rate of NFL games, which typically have a 50% chance of a home team winning, and the fact that the Falcons have historically struggled at Wembley Stadium, the probability might be slightly lower. Additionally, the Jaguars' past struggles against the Falcons and the Falcons' strong offense might warrant a slightly lower probability.

7. Final prediction: *0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Denver Broncos in their NFL Week 6 game, scheduled to take place at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on October 12, 2023, at 17:15 PDT? The game will not be considered a win for the Chiefs if it ends in a tie or if it does not have a clear winner.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-10, 10 being the strongest):

- The Denver Broncos have a strong defense and have been improving throughout the season. (Strength: 6)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have been inconsistent in their performances this season, and it's possible they might struggle against a tough opponent like the Broncos. (Strength: 7)
- The Broncos have a good chance of pulling off an upset, given their recent improvements and the Chiefs' inconsistent form. (Strength: 5)
- Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs' star quarterback, might be injured or have an off-game, which could significantly impact the team's performance. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-10, 10 being the strongest):

- The Kansas City Chiefs have a strong offense and a good team overall, which should give them an advantage against the Broncos. (Strength: 9)
- The Chiefs have a home-field advantage at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, which could boost their morale and performance. (Strength: 8)
- The Broncos might struggle to contain the Chiefs' high-powered offense, leading to a Kansas City victory. (Strength: 7)
- The Chiefs have a more experienced team and a better record than the Broncos, which could give them an edge in the game. (Strength: 6)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the home-field advantage, and the Chiefs' overall performance, the aggregated consideration is that the Kansas City Chiefs have a slight edge in this game. However, the Broncos' recent improvements and the Chiefs' inconsistency make this a competitive matchup.

5. Initial probability: 62

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. However, it might be slightly too confident, given the unpredictability of NFL games. It's essential to consider the base rate of upsets in the NFL, which is relatively high. This might suggest that the probability should be lower, around 55-60%.

7. Final prediction:
*0.58*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.58
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Angola score more goals than Mozambique during regular time (90 minutes) on Friday, October 13, 2023, at 14:00 UTC in their friendly match? The market will resolve to YES if Angola has more goals at the end of regular time plus stoppage time. It will resolve to NO if both teams have an equal number of goals or Mozambique scores more goals. Extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution. This market will automatically close 180 minutes after kickoff, but it may resolve earlier once the resolution criteria are met.

2. Reasons why the answer might be NO (Angola does not score more goals):
   - **Reason 1 (Strength: 3/10)**: Mozambique has a relatively strong team, and they might be able to hold off Angola's attacks and secure a draw or even win.
   - **Reason 2 (Strength: 6/10)**: Angola has a relatively weak defense, which could lead to Mozambique scoring more goals and ultimately winning the match.
   - **Reason 3 (Strength: 4/10)**: The friendly nature of the match might not motivate Angola to play at their best, potentially leading to a less competitive game and a draw.

3. Reasons why the answer might be YES (Angola scores more goals):
   - **Reason 1 (Strength: 7/10)**: Angola has a strong offense and has shown the ability to score goals in previous matches.
   - **Reason 2 (Strength: 5/10)**: Mozambique's defense might struggle to contain Angola's attacking players, leading to a higher goal count for Angola.
   - **Reason 3 (Strength: 3/10)**: Angola might be motivated to win the match and prove themselves against a relatively weaker opponent.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths of each reason, it seems that the reasons supporting a "YES" outcome are slightly stronger. However, the reasons supporting a "NO" outcome are still relevant and should not be ignored.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially predict a 55% chance that Angola will score more goals than Mozambique during regular time.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
Upon further reflection, I realize that my initial probability might be too high. A 55% chance seems overly confident, given the relatively low strength of some of the reasons supporting a "YES" outcome. Additionally, the base rate of Angola scoring more goals than Mozambique in a friendly match is likely low. Considering these factors, I should adjust my probability downward.

7. Final prediction:
*0.40*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Labour Party candidate win the Mid-Bedfordshire by-election, which is expected to take place following Nadine Dorries's sudden resignation as the MP for Mid-Bedfordshire with immediate effect? If there is no Labour Party candidate standing in this by-election, this market resolves to NO. If there is no by-election between now and the next General Election, this market will resolve to N/A. The question is to be resolved on the 20th of October 2023, and as of the 9th of June 2023, the current date is considered.

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **Conservative Party's strong presence in the area**: Mid-Bedfordshire is a Conservative-held seat, and the party has a strong presence in the area. This might make it challenging for the Labour Party to win the seat. (Strength: 7/10)
2. **Nadine Dorries's popularity**: Although Nadine Dorries has resigned, she has been a prominent figure in the Conservative Party, and her resignation might not necessarily translate to a Labour win. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Local factors and constituency dynamics**: The local factors and constituency dynamics in Mid-Bedfordshire might not favor the Labour Party, making it difficult for them to win the seat. (Strength: 5/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **Labour Party's national momentum**: The Labour Party has been gaining momentum nationally, and a by-election could provide an opportunity for them to capitalize on this momentum and win the seat. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Anti-government sentiment**: The Conservative Party's performance in government might be unpopular with some voters, which could lead to a backlash and a Labour win in the by-election. (Strength: 7/10)
3. **Local Labour Party candidate strength**: A strong local Labour Party candidate could potentially win the seat, especially if they are well-known and well-liked in the constituency. (Strength: 6/10)

Aggregated considerations:
Considering the factors mentioned above, the Labour Party's chances of winning the seat are relatively high, but not guaranteed. The Conservative Party's strong presence in the area and Nadine Dorries's popularity are significant challenges for the Labour Party. However, the Labour Party's national momentum and potential anti-government sentiment could work in their favor.

Initial probability: 45%

Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 45% seems reasonable, considering the factors mentioned above. However, it might be slightly too optimistic, as the Conservative Party's strong presence in the area and Nadine Dorries's popularity could still pose significant challenges for the Labour Party.

Final prediction: *0.4*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Chris Christie suspend his presidential campaign before the first Republican presidential primary or caucus is held on January 15, 2024, in Iowa? Given the historical context of the 2016 Republican presidential primaries, where several candidates suspended their campaigns before the first primaries and caucuses, what are the chances that Chris Christie will follow a similar path? This question will resolve to YES if Christie suspends his campaign before the Iowa caucuses on January 15, 2024, and to NO if his campaign is still ongoing on that day.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Christie has been a well-known figure in the Republican Party for years, with a strong track record as the former Governor of New Jersey and a former Chairman of the Republican Governors Association. This could provide him with a level of name recognition and credibility that might help him stay in the race (Strength: 4).
- Christie has been actively campaigning and participating in debates, which suggests that he is committed to his candidacy (Strength: 3).
- Christie has a dedicated team and resources, which could help him sustain his campaign (Strength: 3).
- Christie's campaign has been gaining some traction, albeit slowly, and he has secured some key endorsements (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The 2016 Republican primary saw several candidates drop out before the first primaries and caucuses, and Christie might be weighing his chances of success in a crowded field (Strength: 4).
- Christie's campaign has been struggling to gain momentum, and he has not secured any major victories in the polls or debates (Strength: 4).
- The Republican primary is expected to be highly competitive, and Christie might be facing an uphill battle to secure a spot among the top contenders (Strength: 3).
- Christie's campaign might be running low on funds, which could make it difficult for him to sustain his campaign (Strength: 2).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided above, it seems that Christie's chances of suspending his campaign before the Iowa caucuses are relatively high. While he has some strengths, such as his name recognition and campaign team, his lack of momentum and struggles in the polls suggest that he might be at a disadvantage. The historical context of the 2016 Republican primary also suggests that Christie might be more likely to drop out early.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate that the probability of Chris Christie suspending his campaign before the Iowa caucuses is around 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, but it might be too confident. The base rate of candidates suspending their campaigns before the first primaries and caucuses is relatively high, as seen in the 2016 Republican primary. However, this does not necessarily mean that Christie will follow the same path. Additionally, there are many factors that could affect his campaign, such as his debate performances, fundraising, and endorsements.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will Travis King, the US soldier who crossed into North Korea, return to the United States by the end of 2023, as reported by reliable media sources? This question requires consideration of various factors, including diplomatic efforts, North Korean intentions, and the soldier's own desires and circumstances. Given the current date is July 20, 2023, and the question's close date is September 28, 2023, the timeframe for return is approximately 2-3 months. This question's resolution will be confirmed if Travis King is physically in the US at any point before the end of 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

* North Korea's history of holding American citizens for extended periods for various reasons, such as espionage or military actions, might indicate a reluctance to release Travis King. (Strength: 7/10)
* The diplomatic relationship between the US and North Korea is strained, which could hinder negotiations for King's release. (Strength: 6/10)
* North Korea might use Travis King as leverage in future negotiations or to gain concessions from the US. (Strength: 8/10)
* The US might not be willing to engage in negotiations or provide concessions for King's release, which could delay or prevent his return. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

* The US government might negotiate with North Korea for King's release, potentially using diplomatic channels or other means to secure his return. (Strength: 8/10)
* The international community, including the US, might pressure North Korea to release King, citing humanitarian concerns or human rights. (Strength: 7/10)
* Travis King might be released as a gesture of goodwill or as part of a broader agreement between the US and North Korea. (Strength: 6/10)
* The US and North Korea might reach a mutually beneficial agreement that includes King's release, such as a prisoner swap or a relaxation of sanctions. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the factors working against Travis King's return are stronger than those in favor of his return. The history of North Korea holding American citizens, the strained diplomatic relationship, and the potential use of King as leverage all contribute to a more challenging situation. However, the possibility of US-North Korean negotiations, international pressure, and a mutually beneficial agreement cannot be ruled out. A balanced assessment suggests that while there are valid reasons to doubt King's return, there are also plausible scenarios that could lead to his release.

5. Initial probability: 30

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 30 seems somewhat conservative, considering the potential for diplomatic efforts and negotiations to secure King's release. However, the factors working against his return, such as North Korea's history and the strained relationship, should not be underestimated. The base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of a US soldier being released from North Korea) is not explicitly known, but it is likely relatively low.

7. Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Tennessee Titans beat the Indianapolis Colts in their NFL Week 13 game on December 3, 2023, at Nissan Stadium? The game is scheduled to start at 10:00 PST. 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

- The Titans have struggled with consistency throughout the season, which might affect their performance in this game. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Colts have shown resilience and ability to bounce back from losses, which could make them a tough opponent. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Titans' defense has had issues with allowing big plays, which the Colts' offense might exploit. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Colts have a strong running game, which could give the Titans' defense trouble. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Titans are playing on their home turf, which might give them an advantage, but it's not a guarantee. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

- The Titans have a strong offense led by quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who has a good track record of performing well in big games. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Titans' defense has shown improvement in recent weeks, which could help them contain the Colts' offense. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Colts have struggled with injuries to key players, which could affect their performance in this game. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Titans have a good home-field advantage, which could give them an edge in this game. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Colts have had inconsistent quarterback play, which could be a liability in a big game. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Titans' offense and defense have the potential to outperform the Colts'. However, the Colts' resilience and strong running game could make them a tough opponent. The Titans' home-field advantage and the Colts' quarterback inconsistency are also factors to consider.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of the Titans beating the Colts as 62.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability might be a bit too confident, as there are many factors that could affect the outcome of the game. The Colts have shown resilience in the past, and the Titans' consistency has been a concern. Additionally, the Colts' strong running game could be a challenge for the Titans' defense. I should consider a more conservative estimate.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Dallas Cowboys win against the Philadelphia Eagles in their Week 14 NFL game on December 10, 2023, at AT&T Stadium, which starts at 5:20 PM PST?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- The Eagles have a strong defense, which might limit the Cowboys' offense. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Cowboys have struggled with injuries to key players this season, which could impact their performance. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Eagles have a strong home-field advantage, and the game is being played at AT&T Stadium, which might not be as intimidating for the Eagles. (Strength: 4/10)
- The Cowboys have had inconsistent performances this season, and it's difficult to predict their level of motivation. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- The Cowboys have a strong offense led by quarterback Dak Prescott, which could exploit the Eagles' defense. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Cowboys have a good track record against the Eagles in recent years, with two wins in their last three meetings. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Eagles are dealing with their own injuries, particularly on the defensive side, which could weaken their overall performance. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Cowboys have a strong home-field advantage, which could give them an edge in the game. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Eagles' defense and the Cowboys' offense seem to be evenly matched. However, the Cowboys' inconsistent performances and injuries to key players are concerns. On the other hand, the Eagles' injuries and the Cowboys' recent success against them provide some optimism. Overall, it's a closely contested matchup, but the Cowboys' offense might have a slight edge.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Thoughts on initial probability:
My initial probability is relatively moderate, reflecting the uncertainty and close matchup between the two teams. However, I might be underestimating the impact of the Eagles' injuries and the Cowboys' inconsistent performances. Additionally, the home-field advantage for the Eagles could be a significant factor.

7. Final prediction: *0.58*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.58
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will at least 5,000 Wagner Group soldiers relocate to Belarus by the end of 2023, given the current geopolitical situation and historical context? This question assumes that the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, will be the primary source of the soldiers relocating to Belarus. The relocation will be considered successful if at least 5,000 Wagner soldiers are present in Belarus by December 31, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

* Reason 1: Limited information available: The question lacks specific information about the Wagner Group's plans or intentions regarding relocation to Belarus. This lack of information makes it difficult to accurately assess the likelihood of the event. (Strength: 6/10)
* Reason 2: Logistical challenges: Relocating a large number of soldiers would require significant logistical efforts, including transportation, accommodation, and supply chain management. These challenges might hinder the successful relocation of 5,000 soldiers. (Strength: 7/10)
* Reason 3: Potential Russian government restrictions: The Russian government might restrict the Wagner Group's activities or impose regulations that would prevent the relocation of a large number of soldiers. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

* Reason 1: Wagner Group's expansion plans: The Wagner Group has been expanding its presence in various regions, including Africa and the Middle East. It's possible that they might be planning to expand their operations to Belarus. (Strength: 8/10)
* Reason 2: Belarus-Russia relations: Belarus and Russia have close military and economic ties. Belarus might be willing to accommodate the Wagner Group's presence, making it easier for the group to relocate soldiers. (Strength: 8/10)
* Reason 3: Wagner Group's mercenary activities: The Wagner Group has been involved in various mercenary activities, and relocating soldiers to Belarus could be part of their business strategy to offer their services to the Belarusian government or other clients. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Taking into account the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I consider the following:
- The Wagner Group's expansion plans and mercenary activities provide a strong motivation for relocation.
- The close military and economic ties between Belarus and Russia could facilitate the relocation process.
- However, the lack of information and logistical challenges might hinder the successful relocation of 5,000 soldiers.
- The potential restrictions from the Russian government could also impact the relocation plans.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would initially estimate the probability of at least 5,000 Wagner soldiers relocating to Belarus by the end of 2023 as 40%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively low, considering the strong motivations for the Wagner Group to relocate soldiers to Belarus. However, the lack of information and logistical challenges might still hinder the successful relocation. To balance these factors, I might consider increasing the probability to around 55%.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Washington Commanders win their NFL Week 18 game against the Dallas Cowboys on January 5, 2024, at FedExField, which is scheduled to start at 10:00 PST (1:00 PM EST)? Please resolve this question based on the information available up to January 8, 2024. In case of a tie, the answer is NO. If the game does not have a clear winner due to some unforeseen circumstances, the answer will be N/A. 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strongest to weakest):
- The Dallas Cowboys have a strong offense and a good team record, which could give them an advantage over the Washington Commanders. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Washington Commanders' defense has struggled in certain areas, which could be exploited by the Cowboys' offense. (Strength: 7.5/10)
- The Cowboys have a more experienced quarterback, which could give them an edge in a high-pressure game. (Strength: 6.5/10)
- The Commanders might be dealing with injuries or team morale issues, which could affect their performance. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strongest to weakest):
- The Washington Commanders have been improving their team performance and have a good record recently. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Commanders' defense has shown the ability to shut down strong offenses in the past. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Cowboys might be underestimating the Commanders, which could lead to a surprising upset. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Commanders have home-field advantage at FedExField, which could give them a boost. (Strength: 5.5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the factors mentioned above, the Washington Commanders have a slight edge due to their recent performance and home-field advantage. However, the Dallas Cowboys' strong offense and experience give them a strong counterargument. The Commanders' defense and potential team morale issues also pose a risk.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of the Washington Commanders beating the Dallas Cowboys at 55%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively low, considering the Commanders' recent performance and home-field advantage. However, the Cowboys' strength and the Commanders' defensive struggles and potential team issues might be underappreciated. The base rate of NFL games being close or having unexpected outcomes is relatively high, which might affect the forecast.

7. Final prediction:
*0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will any permanent Speaker of the House of Representatives in the United States be elected without bipartisan support before 2025, given the current political climate and historical context?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength: 6/10):
- Bipartisan support has been a tradition in the House of Representatives, with the Speaker often being chosen through a consensus between the two major parties.
- The Speaker plays a crucial role in setting the legislative agenda, and a lack of bipartisan support could hinder the Speaker's ability to effectively lead the House.
- The current political climate is highly polarized, which might make it difficult for a Speaker to achieve bipartisan support, but it's not impossible.
- The Speaker is often chosen from the majority party, and the majority party has historically had a significant advantage in the House.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength: 8/10):
- The 2020 election saw a record number of Democratic and Republican seats flipped, resulting in a more evenly divided House, which might make it more challenging for either party to achieve a majority.
- The current Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, has faced opposition from within his own party, and it's possible that a future Speaker could be elected without bipartisan support if the party's internal divisions persist.
- The increasing polarization of the two major parties might lead to a more extreme Speaker who doesn't have broad bipartisan support.
- There have been instances in the past where Speakers have been elected without bipartisan support, such as when Speaker Tip O'Neill was elected in 1977 with only Democratic votes.

4. Aggregated considerations:
While there are valid points on both sides, the strength of the "yes" reasons seems to outweigh the "no" reasons. The increasing polarization of the two major parties and the recent trend of party divisions within the House suggest that a Speaker without bipartisan support is more plausible. However, the historical context and the Speaker's role in setting the legislative agenda might still make it challenging for a Speaker to be elected without some level of bipartisan support.

5. Initial probability: 62

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems to be somewhat conservative, given the strength of the "yes" reasons. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event and the potential for unexpected events that might affect the outcome. The base rate of Speakers being elected without bipartisan support is relatively low, which might suggest that the probability should be lower. On the other hand, the increasing polarization of the parties and the recent trend of party divisions within the House might make the event more plausible.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approve BlackRock's "iShares Bitcoin Trust" Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) application by June 30th, 2024, considering the company's submission on June 15, 2023, and the ongoing regulatory environment in the cryptocurrency industry?

Reasons why the answer might be no:

1. **SEC's cautious approach to cryptocurrency regulation**: The SEC has been slow to approve Bitcoin ETFs in the past, and its chairman, Gary Gensler, has expressed concerns about the lack of regulation in the cryptocurrency industry. (Strength: 8/10)
2. **Regulatory uncertainty**: The SEC's stance on cryptocurrency regulation is still evolving, and a change in administration or leadership could impact the approval process. (Strength: 6/10)
3. **Potential concerns about market manipulation**: The SEC might be hesitant to approve a Bitcoin ETF due to concerns about market manipulation and the potential for price volatility. (Strength: 5/10)
4. **Lack of precedent**: The SEC has not yet approved a Bitcoin spot ETF, and the approval process may be more complex than expected. (Strength: 7/10)

Reasons why the answer might be yes:

1. **BlackRock's influence and reputation**: As a leading asset management company, BlackRock's reputation and influence could help facilitate the approval process. (Strength: 9/10)
2. **Growing acceptance of cryptocurrency**: The cryptocurrency industry has gained significant traction in recent years, and the SEC may be more open to approving a Bitcoin ETF as a result. (Strength: 8/10)
3. **Collaboration with Coinbase**: BlackRock's partnership with Coinbase, a reputable cryptocurrency exchange, could provide additional assurance to the SEC about the security and stability of the Bitcoin ETF. (Strength: 7/10)
4. **Economic and market pressures**: The SEC may feel pressure from investors and market participants to approve a Bitcoin ETF, given the growing demand for cryptocurrency investments. (Strength: 6/10)

Aggregated considerations:
The SEC's cautious approach to cryptocurrency regulation and potential concerns about market manipulation are significant hurdles for the approval of the Bitcoin ETF. However, BlackRock's influence, growing acceptance of cryptocurrency, and collaboration with Coinbase are positive factors that could facilitate the approval process. The lack of precedent and regulatory uncertainty also play a role in the decision-making process.

Initial probability: 40

Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems relatively low, considering the positive factors in favor of approval. However, the SEC's cautious approach and regulatory uncertainty are significant concerns that need to be considered. The base rate of the event (approval of a Bitcoin ETF) is relatively low, given the SEC's history of rejecting similar applications.

Final prediction: *0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will the film "Barbie" have a Rotten Tomatoes critic score of 90% or higher on August 20th, 2023, exactly 30 days after its release on July 21st, 2023? The market will close on August 20th, 2023, at 11:59 PM ET, and the resolution criteria are not applicable for this question. We will use official data from Rotten Tomatoes to determine the outcome.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

* The film "Barbie" might not be a critical darling, and its score might not reach 90% or higher due to mixed reviews from critics. (Strength: 6/10)
* The film's score might be affected by various factors such as the quality of the movie, the audience's expectations, and the timing of its release. (Strength: 5/10)
* The 30-day window might be too short for a film to receive a significant number of reviews, potentially affecting the accuracy of the Rotten Tomatoes score. (Strength: 4/10)
* The film's genre, style, or target audience might not appeal to the critical masses, leading to a lower score. (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

* The film "Barbie" might receive widespread critical acclaim due to its unique blend of style, music, and cultural significance, leading to a high score. (Strength: 8/10)
* The film's star-studded cast, including Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling, might attract positive attention from critics, contributing to a high score. (Strength: 7/10)
* The film's marketing campaign might have generated significant buzz, setting high expectations for the movie's quality and leading to a high score. (Strength: 6/10)
* The film's director, Greta Gerwig, has a track record of critically acclaimed films, which might contribute to a high score for "Barbie". (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:

Considering the reasons above, the most significant factors influencing the outcome are the film's quality, its marketing campaign, and the director's track record. While there are valid reasons to believe the score might be lower, the potential for widespread critical acclaim and the film's unique blend of style and music might lead to a high score.

5. Initial probability:

Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of the film having a 90% or higher Rotten Tomatoes critic score on August 20th, 2023, to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:

The initial probability of 60% might be considered moderately confident, given the uncertainty surrounding the film's critical reception. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of films achieving high Rotten Tomatoes scores. While some films do achieve high scores, it's not a common occurrence, which might suggest that a 60% probability is actually quite high.

7. Final prediction:

Considering the base rate and the uncertainty surrounding the film's critical reception, I revise my initial probability to a more conservative estimate. *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Lebanon win against France in their group stage match at the 2023 FIBA World Cup on August 29, 2023? Considering the information available up to August 27, 2023, what is the likelihood of Lebanon emerging victorious in this game?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Lebanon's basketball team has historically struggled against top-ranked teams like France, with limited international experience and a lower ranking. (Strength: 8/10)
- France is a highly skilled team with a strong roster and a good coach, which could give them a significant advantage over Lebanon. (Strength: 9/10)
- Lebanon's team dynamics and chemistry might not be as well-established as France's, which could impact their performance in a high-pressure game. (Strength: 6/10)
- France has a more experienced and deeper bench, which could be a decisive factor in a closely contested game. (Strength: 8.5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Lebanon has been improving their basketball program in recent years, and their team might be more competitive than expected. (Strength: 5/10)
- France might be overconfident or complacent due to their high ranking, which could lead to a weaker performance. (Strength: 4.5/10)
- Lebanon has a strong home crowd advantage, which could give them a psychological boost and help them perform better. (Strength: 3/10)
- The 2023 FIBA World Cup format and rules might favor Lebanon's playing style or strategy, which could level the playing field. (Strength: 2/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Lebanon's historical struggles against top-ranked teams and France's strong roster and coaching are significant concerns. However, Lebanon's potential improvement and France's possible overconfidence could work in their favor. The home crowd advantage and the 2023 FIBA World Cup format might also play a role. Considering these factors, the probability of Lebanon winning seems low, but not impossible.

5. Initial probability: 12

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 12% might be too low, as it does not fully account for the potential advantages Lebanon might have. However, it also does not overestimate their chances given the significant differences in team strength and experience. Considering the base rate of underdog teams winning in international competitions, the initial probability might be on the right track. However, it is still on the lower end of the spectrum.

7. Final prediction: *0.15*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.15
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Cleveland Browns beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in their Week 14 game at Cleveland Browns Stadium on December 10, 2023, at 10:00 PST? If the game ends in a tie, the answer will be NO. If the game does not have a clear winner (e.g., due to a disputed or inconclusive outcome), the answer will be N/A. 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Cleveland Browns have had an inconsistent season, with some impressive wins but also several losses. (Strength: 3)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have a strong defense, which could potentially shut down the Browns' offense. (Strength: 4)
- The Browns' quarterback, Deshaun Watson, has been dealing with injuries and may not be at full strength. (Strength: 3)
- The Jaguars have a decent record and may be a tougher opponent than expected. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Browns have shown the ability to win games against strong opponents this season. (Strength: 4)
- The Jaguars have struggled on the road, which could give the Browns an advantage at home. (Strength: 3)
- The Browns have a strong running game, which could help them control the clock and wear down the Jaguars' defense. (Strength: 4)
- The Jaguars' offense has been inconsistent, which could make it difficult for them to keep up with the Browns. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, it seems that the Browns have a slight advantage, but the Jaguars' strong defense and inconsistent offense make the game a competitive one. The Browns' home-field advantage and strong running game could give them an edge, but the Jaguars' ability to shut down the Browns' offense and their own decent record make them a formidable opponent.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Browns beating the Jaguars as 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability seems relatively moderate, taking into account the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. However, it may be influenced by the Browns' home-field advantage and their recent performance. It's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is a football game, and the fact that the Browns have had an inconsistent season. This might suggest that the actual probability is lower than my initial estimate.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Dallas Cowboys win their NFL game against the Philadelphia Eagles on December 10, 2023, before the market closes at 9:00 PM Pacific Time on the same day, given that the resolution criteria for this question are not applicable/available? This question will be resolved based on the final game day score.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Strength: 6/10 - The Dallas Cowboys have had inconsistent performances this season, and their recent losses might affect their morale and confidence. 
- Strength: 5/10 - The Philadelphia Eagles have a strong defense, which could limit the Cowboys' scoring opportunities.
- Strength: 4/10 - The Cowboys have struggled with injuries to key players this season, and it's possible they might be without crucial players on December 10.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Strength: 8/10 - The Cowboys have a strong offense, led by quarterback Dak Prescott, who has shown the ability to perform well under pressure.
- Strength: 7/10 - The Cowboys have a good track record against the Eagles in recent years, winning 3 of their last 5 matchups.
- Strength: 6/10 - The Eagles have been inconsistent this season, and the Cowboys might be able to capitalize on their weaknesses.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Cowboys' inconsistent performances, the Eagles' strong defense, and the Cowboys' recent injuries, it's a close call. However, the Cowboys' strong offense and recent success against the Eagles give them an edge.

5. Initial probability:
60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, considering the factors involved. However, it might be slightly too low, given the Cowboys' strong offense and recent success against the Eagles. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of the Cowboys winning any given game) is not explicitly provided, but it's likely around 50%. This might influence the final probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the United States win the 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup, which is scheduled to take place from August 25 to September 10, 2023, in the Philippines and Japan? Given the current date of July 8, 2023, and the question's deadline of September 8, 2023, can the USA team emerge victorious in this international basketball tournament?

Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-10, with 1 being a weak reason and 10 being a strong reason):

1. **Global basketball competition has increased**: The FIBA World Cup has become more competitive over the years, with teams from around the world improving their skills and gaining experience. (Strength: 8)
2. The USA team might face strong opponents in the early rounds, which could affect their momentum and overall performance. (Strength: 6)
3. The team's chemistry and cohesion might not be as strong as other teams, leading to inconsistent play. (Strength: 5)
4. Injuries to key players could significantly impact the team's chances of winning. (Strength: 8)
5. The USA team's reliance on a few star players might make them vulnerable to upsets. (Strength: 7)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-10, with 1 being a weak reason and 10 being a strong reason):

1. The USA team has a strong basketball tradition and a long history of success in international competitions. (Strength: 9)
2. The team has a talented pool of players to choose from, with many top players in the NBA. (Strength: 9)
3. The USA team has a strong coaching staff and a well-structured training program. (Strength: 8)
4. The team's experience in playing in the NBA and other international competitions will help them adapt to the FIBA World Cup format. (Strength: 7)
5. The USA team's depth and bench strength could give them an advantage over other teams. (Strength: 6)

Aggregated considerations:
After weighing the pros and cons, I consider the USA team's strong basketball tradition, talented pool of players, and experienced coaching staff to be significant advantages. However, the increasing global competition, potential injuries, and the team's reliance on a few star players are concerns that could impact their chances of winning.

Initial probability: 60

Thoughts on confidence level: My initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, given the balanced pros and cons. However, I might be underestimating the USA team's chances due to their strong basketball tradition and talented players. On the other hand, I might be overestimating the impact of global competition and potential injuries.

Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

**Rephrased and expanded question:**

Will Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping conduct an in-person meeting between September 1st, 2023, and December 31st, 2023? Given the current geopolitical climate, what are the chances of a face-to-face encounter between the leaders of Russia and China within the specified timeframe? This question considers the potential for a summit, meeting, or other in-person interactions between the two leaders, excluding virtual or remote communications.

**Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):**

1. **Ongoing global tensions**: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries might create an unfavorable environment for a high-profile meeting between Putin and Xi. (Strength: 4)
2. **Xi's focus on domestic issues**: Xi Jinping has been consolidating power in China, and his focus might be on domestic issues, such as the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which could take priority over international meetings. (Strength: 3)
3. **Sino-Russian relations are not as close as they seem**: While Russia and China have strengthened their ties, their relationship is not without challenges, and a meeting might not be necessary or desirable for both parties. (Strength: 2)
4. **Personal factors**: Putin's health issues and Xi's increasing control over China's foreign policy might lead to a decrease in the likelihood of a meeting. (Strength: 1)
5. **Logistical challenges**: The complexity of arranging a meeting between two heads of state, especially considering their respective schedules and security requirements, might be a significant obstacle. (Strength: 2)

**Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):**

1. **Strategic partnership**: Russia and China have been strengthening their strategic partnership, and a meeting would be a natural step in deepening their cooperation. (Strength: 5)
2. **Economic interests**: Both countries have significant economic interests in each other, particularly in the energy sector, and a meeting could facilitate further cooperation. (Strength: 4)
3. **Geopolitical alignment**: Russia and China share a common goal of countering US influence, and a meeting would allow them to coordinate their efforts. (Strength: 4)
4. **Symbolic significance**: A meeting between Putin and Xi would be a significant symbolic gesture, demonstrating their commitment to their partnership and potentially boosting their global influence. (Strength: 3)
5. **Previous meetings**: The two leaders have met several times in the past, and a meeting in 2023 would be consistent with their established pattern of interaction. (Strength: 2)

**Aggregated considerations:**

Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that the likelihood of a meeting between Putin and Xi is influenced by a mix of geopolitical, strategic, and personal factors. While there are valid reasons to doubt the possibility of a meeting, the strength of the "yes" arguments, particularly the strategic partnership and economic interests, suggests that a meeting is more likely than not.

**Initial probability:**

Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of Putin and Xi conducting an in-person meeting between September 1st, 2023, and December 31st, 2023, to be around 60%.

**Evaluation of initial probability:**

The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, but it might be considered not confident enough, given the strength of the "yes" arguments. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is difficult to estimate without more information. The fact that Putin and Xi have met several times in the past suggests that a meeting is not an extraordinary event, but the current geopolitical climate might make it more challenging.

**Final prediction:**

*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Ilya Sutskever leave his position at Open AI before January 2nd, 2024? Given the current information, I am trying to assess the likelihood of Ilya Sutskever, a prominent figure in the AI community, leaving his position at Open AI, a leading AI research organization, within the next 5 months. The question does not provide any specific context or reasons for his potential departure, and I will consider various factors that might influence his decision.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Ilya Sutskever is a key figure in the development of Open AI's language models, and his departure might compromise the organization's progress (Strength: 4).
- Open AI has been working on high-profile projects, and Ilya Sutskever's expertise is crucial to their success (Strength: 4).
- The departure of a prominent figure like Ilya Sutskever might damage Open AI's reputation and credibility (Strength: 3).
- Ilya Sutskever might have a strong emotional investment in Open AI's mission and goals (Strength: 2).
- There is no publicly available information suggesting his intention to leave (Strength: 5).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Ilya Sutskever has been involved in high-profile controversies surrounding AI development (Strength: 3).
- The AI industry is rapidly evolving, and it's possible that Ilya Sutskever might be attracted to new opportunities (Strength: 2).
- Open AI's leadership and management might be facing challenges, which could lead to departures (Strength: 2).
- Ilya Sutskever has a strong academic background and might be considering a return to academia (Strength: 1).
- There is a general trend of people leaving their jobs due to burnout or dissatisfaction (Strength: 1).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, Ilya Sutskever's departure seems less likely due to his importance to Open AI's projects and the potential consequences of his departure. However, the lack of publicly available information and the rapidly evolving nature of the AI industry make it difficult to rule out the possibility of his departure.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Ilya Sutskever leaving Open AI before January 2nd, 2024, at 20.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively low, which might be due to the lack of publicly available information and the potential consequences of his departure. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of people leaving their jobs, which might be higher than expected. This could lead to a higher estimated probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Mitch McConnell, the current Senate Republican Leader and the longest-serving Party Leader in the Senate history, stop being the Senate Republican Leader by the end of 2023 due to resignation, ouster by his caucus, death, or any other reason that results in him losing his Party Leader status before the end of 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Strength: 7/10
Mitch McConnell's experience and longevity in the position have made him a skilled politician and leader. He has maintained his position despite various challenges, and it's possible that he may continue to do so.
- Strength: 5/10
McConnell's age is not necessarily a significant factor in his ability to continue as Senate Republican Leader, as many politicians have continued to serve effectively well into their 70s and 80s.
- Strength: 4/10
McConnell has maintained a strong relationship with his caucus and has managed to keep his position despite some challenges. This suggests that he may continue to have the support of his caucus.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Strength: 9/10
Mitch McConnell is 80 years old, which is relatively old for a politician, especially one in a demanding leadership position. His age may start to take a toll on his health and energy levels, making it difficult for him to continue as leader.
- Strength: 8/10
There have been rumors and speculation about potential successors to McConnell, which could indicate that his caucus is starting to look for alternatives. This could lead to him being ousted or pressured to resign.
- Strength: 6/10
McConnell has faced various challenges and controversies throughout his career, and it's possible that these could lead to his downfall or a loss of support from his caucus.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that the likelihood of McConnell stopping being the Senate Republican Leader before the end of 2023 is higher than the likelihood of him continuing. The age factor and potential succession rumors are significant concerns that could lead to his ouster or resignation.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it may be slightly too confident. Considering the base rate of leaders in similar positions, it's not uncommon for them to continue in their roles well into their 70s and 80s. Additionally, McConnell's experience and longevity make him a formidable politician who may find ways to maintain his position.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will it snow in New York's Central Park during the winter of 2023-2024, resulting in measurable, accumulating snowfall before June 1, 2024? This question will be resolved to YES if there is a recorded instance of snowfall in Central Park that meets the National Weather Service's definition of snowfall (at least 0.1 inches), and will be resolved to NO if no such snowfall occurs. The market will resolve to N/A if data stops being reported from Central Park.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

* Reason 1: It has been over 700 days since accumulating snow fell in several US East Coast cities, indicating a prolonged dry spell for the region. (Strength: 7/10)
* Reason 2: Little snow usually falls during El Niño years, and the current climate conditions suggest a moderate to strong El Niño event. (Strength: 6/10)
* Reason 3: The winter of 2023-2024 is expected to be warmer than average, which could reduce the likelihood of snowfall in the region. (Strength: 5/10)
* Reason 4: The Northeast US has experienced a trend of warmer winters in recent years, which could continue in the upcoming winter. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

* Reason 1: The Northeast US is known for its unpredictable and variable weather patterns, which can lead to unexpected snowfall events. (Strength: 8/10)
* Reason 2: The current climate models suggest a possibility of a cold snap or a nor'easter event that could bring snow to the region. (Strength: 6/10)
* Reason 3: The winter season is still young, and there is still time for a significant snowfall event to occur before June 1, 2024. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, it appears that the factors pointing towards a no answer (Reasons 1-4) have a slightly higher strength rating than the factors pointing towards a yes answer (Reasons 1-3). However, the unpredictability of the Northeast US weather and the possibility of a cold snap or nor'easter event could still lead to a significant snowfall event.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate an initial probability of 25 for the answer being yes.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability of 25 seems relatively low, given the potential for unpredictable weather patterns in the Northeast US. However, the factors pointing towards a no answer, such as the prolonged dry spell and expected warmer temperatures, do provide a strong case for a low probability. Considering the base rate of snowfall in the region, which is typically around 20-30 inches per year, the probability of no snowfall in a given winter is already relatively high. Therefore, the calculated probability seems reasonable.

7. Final prediction:
*0.25*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.25
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the New York Jets win against the Washington Commanders in their Week 16 game on December 24, 2023, at MetLife Stadium, which starts at 10:00 PST?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Injuries to key players**: The Jets have a history of injuries to key players, which could impact their performance. Strength: 6/10
- **Reason 2: Washington Commanders' strong defense**: The Commanders have a solid defense that could potentially limit the Jets' scoring opportunities. Strength: 7/10
- **Reason 3: Jets' inconsistent performance**: The Jets have shown inconsistent performance throughout the season, which makes it difficult to predict their outcome. Strength: 5/10
- **Reason 4: Travel and fatigue**: The game is on December 24, which might affect the Jets' preparation and energy levels due to the holiday schedule. Strength: 4/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Jets' strong offense**: The Jets have a potent offense led by quarterback Aaron Rodgers, which could exploit the Commanders' defense. Strength: 8/10
- **Reason 2: Commanders' recent struggles**: The Commanders have faced challenges this season, including injuries and inconsistent performance, which could impact their ability to compete with the Jets. Strength: 6/10
- **Reason 3: Jets' home advantage**: Playing at MetLife Stadium could provide the Jets with a home-field advantage, boosting their morale and energy. Strength: 5/10
- **Reason 4: Jets' momentum**: The Jets have shown signs of improvement and momentum in recent games, which could carry over to this matchup. Strength: 7/10

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the Jets' strong offense and recent momentum might give them an edge. However, the Commanders' solid defense and the Jets' history of injuries and inconsistent performance could hinder their chances. The travel and fatigue factors due to the holiday schedule might also impact the Jets' performance.

5. Initial probability:
60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 might be too low, considering the Jets' strong offense and recent momentum. However, it's essential to consider the Commanders' solid defense and the Jets' history of injuries and inconsistent performance. The base rate of the event (the Jets winning) is not explicitly provided, but it's essential to consider the general probability of a team winning in the NFL.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Friday, 9th June 2023, at 16:30 UK time than it did on Thursday, 8th June 2023, at 16:30 UK time?

The market's performance on the FTSE 100 is influenced by a complex array of factors, including global economic trends, company-specific announcements, central bank policies, and geopolitical events. Given the information provided, we will analyze the potential reasons for the FTSE 100 to close higher or lower on Friday, 9th June.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (lower close):
- **Reason 1: Economic indicators**: If there are negative economic indicators, such as a decline in consumer spending or a decrease in manufacturing activity, it could lead to a decrease in investor confidence, causing the FTSE 100 to close lower. Strength: 6/10
- **Reason 2: Global market trends**: If there are negative trends in other major markets, such as the Dow Jones or the S&P 500, it could lead to a decrease in investor confidence and a lower close for the FTSE 100. Strength: 5/10
- **Reason 3: Central bank policies**: If the Bank of England announces a rate hike or other policy changes that are perceived as negative for the economy, it could lead to a decrease in investor confidence and a lower close for the FTSE 100. Strength: 4/10
- **Reason 4: Company-specific announcements**: If there are negative earnings reports or other company-specific announcements that are perceived as negative for the market, it could lead to a decrease in investor confidence and a lower close for the FTSE 100. Strength: 7/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (higher close):
- **Reason 1: Positive economic indicators**: If there are positive economic indicators, such as an increase in consumer spending or a rise in manufacturing activity, it could lead to an increase in investor confidence, causing the FTSE 100 to close higher. Strength: 8/10
- **Reason 2: Global market trends**: If there are positive trends in other major markets, such as the Dow Jones or the S&P 500, it could lead to an increase in investor confidence and a higher close for the FTSE 100. Strength: 6/10
- **Reason 3: Central bank policies**: If the Bank of England announces a rate cut or other policy changes that are perceived as positive for the economy, it could lead to an increase in investor confidence and a higher close for the FTSE 100. Strength: 5/10
- **Reason 4: Company-specific announcements**: If there are positive earnings reports or other company-specific announcements that are perceived as positive for the market, it could lead to an increase in investor confidence and a higher close for the FTSE 100. Strength: 8/10

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the analysis above, the main factors that could influence the FTSE 100's close on Friday, 9th June are economic indicators, company-specific announcements, and global market trends. The strength of the reasons for a higher close outweigh the reasons for a lower close, suggesting that the FTSE 100 is more likely to close higher.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the analysis above, I would estimate the probability of the FTSE 100 closing higher on Friday, 9th June than it did on Thursday, 8th June to be around 62%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 62% seems reasonable, but it may be too high given the complexity and unpredictability of the market. The base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of the FTSE 100 closing higher on any given day) is likely to be around 50%, given the random fluctuations in the market. I should consider this base rate when making my final prediction.

7. Final prediction:
*0.57*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.57
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will England reach the final of the Rugby World Cup 2023, which is currently taking place in France, given the information available up to October 12th, 2023, and considering the tournament's schedule, which concludes on October 28th, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

- Reason 1: England's inconsistent performance in recent international rugby matches (Strength: 6/10) - England has had some notable wins, but also experienced losses against top-ranked teams, which might indicate a lack of consistency and potential vulnerability in crucial matches.
- Reason 2: Strong competition in the tournament (Strength: 8/10) - The Rugby World Cup features a diverse and competitive pool of teams, including top-ranked sides like South Africa, New Zealand, and Ireland, which could pose a significant challenge for England.
- Reason 3: Potential injuries to key players (Strength: 4/10) - As with any sport, injuries to key players can significantly impact a team's performance, and England may face challenges in the event of injuries to their star players.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

- Reason 1: England's strong home record in major tournaments (Strength: 9/10) - England has a history of performing well in home and European soil, which might give them an advantage in the tournament.
- Reason 2: Recent improvements in the team's performance (Strength: 7/10) - England has shown improvements in their recent matches, which could indicate a growing confidence and cohesion within the team.
- Reason 3: England's experienced coaching staff (Strength: 8/10) - England's coaching staff has extensive experience in international rugby, which could help them make strategic decisions and adapt to the tournament's challenges.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the above points, it seems that the reasons for England not reaching the final are somewhat evenly balanced by the reasons for them reaching the final. However, the strength of the competition and England's inconsistent performance in recent matches might give a slight edge to the 'no' outcome.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of England reaching the final of the Rugby World Cup at 45%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems somewhat cautious, given the strengths of England's recent performance and their home record in major tournaments. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of teams reaching the final in the Rugby World Cup, which is typically around 20-30%. This might suggest that the initial probability is still somewhat conservative.

7. Final prediction:
*0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Arizona Cardinals defeat the San Francisco 49ers in their NFL Week 15 game taking place at State Farm Stadium on December 17, 2023, at 1:05 PST?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- The 49ers have a strong defense and a good record in the season, which might give them an advantage over the Cardinals. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Cardinals have struggled with injuries to key players throughout the season, which could impact their performance. (Strength: 6/10)
- The 49ers have a more experienced quarterback, Brock Purdy, who has shown ability to perform under pressure. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- The Cardinals have a strong offense led by quarterback Kyler Murray, who can make plays with his legs and arm. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Cardinals have been improving their defense over the course of the season, which could help them contain the 49ers' offense. (Strength: 7/10)
- The 49ers might be looking ahead to their upcoming games and could be vulnerable to an upset by the Cardinals. (Strength: 4/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The 49ers have a strong defense and a good record, which gives them an initial advantage. However, the Cardinals have a strong offense and have been improving their defense. The 49ers' potential vulnerability to an upset and the Cardinals' ability to make plays with Kyler Murray are also factors to consider.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Cardinals defeating the 49ers as 55.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, considering the strength of both teams. However, it might be too low, as the Cardinals have shown the ability to compete with top teams in the league. The base rate of the Cardinals winning this game is low, as they are underdogs, but it's not impossible.

7. Final prediction:
*0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will a rider from a Latin American country (specifically, Colombia, Ecuador, or Costa Rica) win at least one stage of the 2023 Tour de France? This question assumes that a "Latin American rider" refers to a cyclist who holds citizenship in one of these countries. The Tour de France typically takes place in July, and the given date is June 29th, which is before the event. The question's resolution criteria are not applicable at this time, as the event has not yet occurred. The question will be resolved when the 2023 Tour de France concludes on July 23rd.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-10, with 1 being weak and 10 being strong):
- Historically, Latin American riders have been underrepresented in the Tour de France. (Strength: 6)
- While Colombia has produced successful cyclists, such as Nairo Quintana, the country's riders have not had a significant presence in the Tour de France in recent years. (Strength: 4)
- The competition in the Tour de France is extremely high, with many top-tier riders from Europe and other parts of the world. (Strength: 8)
- The physical and mental demands of the Tour de France are intense, and it's challenging for riders from different regions to adapt to the conditions. (Strength: 5)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-10, with 1 being weak and 10 being strong):
- Colombia has a strong cycling tradition and has produced successful riders in the past. (Strength: 8)
- Riders like Egan Bernal and Nairo Quintana have shown that Latin American cyclists can compete at the highest level in the Tour de France. (Strength: 9)
- The 2023 Tour de France features a more diverse field than in previous years, with a greater representation of riders from various countries. (Strength: 6)
- Riders from Latin America have been gaining experience and improving their skills, which could lead to a breakthrough performance in the Tour de France. (Strength: 7)

4. Aggregated considerations:
- Historically, Latin American riders have been underrepresented in the Tour de France, but there are exceptions, such as Nairo Quintana and Egan Bernal, who have shown that it's possible for riders from this region to succeed.
- The competition is extremely high, and adapting to the physical and mental demands of the Tour de France can be challenging.
- The 2023 Tour de France features a more diverse field, which could create opportunities for Latin American riders to shine.
- The success of riders like Bernal and Quintana suggests that there is potential for Latin American cyclists to win stages in the Tour de France.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of a Latin American rider winning a stage in the 2023 Tour de France to be around 22%. This is a relatively low probability due to the high level of competition and the historical underrepresentation of Latin American riders.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 22% might be considered not confident enough, given the exceptions of riders like Bernal and Quintana. However, the high level of competition and the challenges faced by Latin American riders should also be taken into account.

7. Final prediction:
*0.28*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.28
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Carolina Panthers win the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 18 of the NFL season, which will take place at Bank of America Stadium at 10:00 AM EST (7:00 AM PST) on January 5, 2024? This market resolves as a "yes" if the Panthers win the game, "no" if they lose, and "N/A" if the game ends in a tie or does not have a winner (e.g., due to a tiebreaker or other unforeseen circumstances). 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):

- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have historically had a strong record against the Carolina Panthers, with a higher winning percentage in head-to-head matchups. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Buccaneers have a more experienced and established quarterback in Tom Brady, who has consistently performed well in high-pressure situations. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Panthers have struggled with consistency and injuries throughout the season, which could impact their ability to perform at their best. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Buccaneers have a strong defense that could potentially shut down the Panthers' offense. (Strength: 6/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):

- The Panthers have shown improvement in their offense and defense in recent weeks, which could give them an edge against the Buccaneers. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Buccaneers have been dealing with injuries to key players, which could impact their ability to perform at their best. (Strength: 4/10)
- The Panthers have a strong home-field advantage at Bank of America Stadium, which could give them a boost in energy and motivation. (Strength: 3/10)
- The Buccaneers may be looking ahead to the playoffs, which could lead to a lack of focus and motivation. (Strength: 2/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I believe that the Buccaneers' experience, historical advantage, and strong defense give them a slight edge. However, the Panthers' recent improvement and home-field advantage could potentially offset these advantages. I would rate the likelihood of a Panthers win as around 30%.

5. Initial probability: 30

6. Evaluation:
My initial probability seems relatively low, but it's possible that the Panthers' recent improvement and home-field advantage could give them a better chance than I initially thought. I also didn't consider the base rate of the Panthers winning games in general, which could be around 40-50% for an average NFL team. This might suggest that my initial probability is not excessively confident, but it's still on the lower side.

7. Final prediction: *0.32*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.32
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Buffalo Bills in their Week 14 game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on December 10, 2023, at 1:25 PST? The game's outcome will determine the resolution of this question. If the game ends in a tie, the answer will be NO. If the game does not have a winner (e.g., due to a tiebreaker or other unforeseen circumstances), the answer will be N/A. I resolve markets quickly, typically within an hour of the event's end, and sometimes subsidize them, making this market a good choice for those seeking fast resolution.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-10 for strength):

- The Buffalo Bills have a strong defense, which could potentially limit the Kansas City Chiefs' high-powered offense (Strength: 6/10). 
- The Bills have shown resilience in close games this season, which might help them pull off an upset (Strength: 5/10).
- The Chiefs might be dealing with injuries or fatigue, which could impact their performance (Strength: 4/10).
- The Bills' offense, led by Josh Allen, has been improving and could pose a significant threat to the Chiefs' defense (Strength: 7/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-10 for strength):

- The Kansas City Chiefs have a strong home-field advantage at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, which could give them an edge (Strength: 8/10).
- The Chiefs' offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, has been one of the most potent in the league, and they might be able to outscore the Bills (Strength: 9/10).
- The Chiefs have a more experienced team, which could help them handle the pressure and make key plays in a close game (Strength: 6/10).
- The Bills might struggle with the physicality and speed of the Chiefs' defense (Strength: 5/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Kansas City Chiefs' home-field advantage, and the potency of their offense, I lean towards the Chiefs having an edge. However, the Bills' strong defense and improving offense make this a competitive matchup. The key factor will be how well each team can execute on their strengths and mitigate their weaknesses.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I estimate the initial probability of the Kansas City Chiefs beating the Buffalo Bills as 70.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
My initial probability of 70 seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident. The Bills have shown resilience and have a strong defense, which could potentially limit the Chiefs' offense. However, the Chiefs' home-field advantage and potent offense give them an edge. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the likelihood of the Chiefs winning any given game), I should be more cautious and consider the possibility of a close game.

7. Final prediction:
*\0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.5
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Las Vegas Raiders defeat the Denver Broncos in their NFL Week 18 game on January 5, 2024, at Allegiant Stadium, with the game starting at 10:00 PST?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- The Denver Broncos have a strong defense, which could potentially limit the Raiders' offense and make it difficult for them to score enough points to win. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Raiders have struggled with injuries to key players throughout the season, which could impact their performance in this game. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Broncos have a good chance of being motivated to win, as a win could potentially secure a better playoff seeding for them. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- The Raiders have a strong offense, led by quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, which could exploit the Broncos' defense and score enough points to win. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Raiders have home-field advantage, playing at Allegiant Stadium, which could give them a boost in terms of energy and crowd support. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Broncos may be looking ahead to the playoffs, which could lead to a letdown performance in this game. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strength of both teams, the Raiders' offense, and the home-field advantage, the Raiders have a slight edge. However, the Broncos' strong defense and potential motivation to win could make this a close game.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 55 seems reasonable, given the close matchup and the factors that could influence the outcome. However, it may be worth considering the base rate of the event, which is that the Raiders are likely to win, given their home-field advantage and the strength of their offense. This could lead to a slightly higher probability.

7. Final prediction: *0.58*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.58
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Kevin McCarthy remain as the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives from September 13, 2023, to December 15, 2023, without interruption, as per the official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Kevin McCarthy or his representative? The market will resolve to "Yes" if he remains in the position until December 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The consensus of credible reporting will suffice as a primary resolution source. The question will close on October 3, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be "No" (rated from 1 to 10 for strength):
- Reason 1: Kevin McCarthy's leadership is facing opposition from a faction within the Republican Party. (Strength: 6)
- Reason 2: McCarthy has struggled to maintain party unity and has faced challenges in passing key legislation. (Strength: 7)
- Reason 3: The House of Representatives has a slim Republican majority, making it difficult for McCarthy to maintain his position without the support of a few Democratic votes. (Strength: 5)
- Reason 4: McCarthy has a history of making concessions to maintain his position, which might not be sustainable in the long term. (Strength: 4)
- Reason 5: External factors like scandals or personal issues could potentially lead to his resignation. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be "Yes" (rated from 1 to 10 for strength):
- Reason 1: Kevin McCarthy has managed to maintain his position as Speaker despite previous challenges, demonstrating his ability to adapt and negotiate with his party members. (Strength: 8)
- Reason 2: The Republican Party has a clear majority in the House, providing McCarthy with a stable foundation to operate from. (Strength: 9)
- Reason 3: McCarthy has shown a willingness to work with Democrats on key legislation, which could help maintain his support within the party. (Strength: 6)
- Reason 4: The House of Representatives has a relatively long session, allowing McCarthy to work on building his support and addressing potential challenges. (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the strength of the "Yes" arguments outweighs the "No" arguments. McCarthy's ability to maintain his position despite previous challenges and his willingness to work with Democrats suggest that he is likely to remain as Speaker until December 15, 2023.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Kevin McCarthy remaining as Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives from September 13, 2023, to December 15, 2023, without interruption to be around 80.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonably confident, but it might be slightly overconfident. The "No" arguments, although not extremely strong, still present potential challenges to McCarthy's leadership. It's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is difficult to estimate without more information. However, given the current context, the probability seems reasonable.

7. Final prediction:
*0.75*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.75
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will the Los Angeles Rams beat the Washington Commanders in their NFL Week 15 game on December 17, 2023, at SoFi Stadium, which starts at 1:05 PST? 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Strength: 7/10 - The Los Angeles Rams have struggled with injuries this season, particularly to key players like quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receiver Cooper Kupp. If they are not at full strength, it could impact their ability to win the game.
- Strength: 6/10 - The Washington Commanders have shown improvement this season, with a strong running game led by Brian Robinson and a solid defense. They could potentially give the Rams a tough challenge.
- Strength: 5/10 - The Rams have had inconsistent performances this season, and it's possible they may not be able to put together a complete game against the Commanders.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Strength: 9/10 - The Los Angeles Rams have a strong team overall, with a talented roster and a good coaching staff. They have the potential to dominate the game if they play to their capabilities.
- Strength: 8/10 - The Rams have a good home-field advantage at SoFi Stadium, which could give them an edge in the game.
- Strength: 6/10 - The Commanders have struggled on the road this season, and the Rams' defense could take advantage of this.

4. Aggregated considerations: 
- The Rams have a strong team overall, but they have struggled with injuries and inconsistency this season. The Commanders have improved and could give the Rams a tough challenge. However, the Rams have a good home-field advantage and a talented roster, which gives them an edge.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation: The initial probability seems reasonable, considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. However, it's worth noting that NFL games can be highly unpredictable, and upsets are common. Additionally, the base rate of the Rams beating the Commanders is not particularly high, as they are not significantly favored in this game. This might suggest that the actual probability is lower than 60.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the University of Oregon defeat the University of Utah in their 2023 college football game at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City, Utah on Saturday, October 28, 2023, at 1:30 PM MDT? 

Given the information provided, I will consider various factors that might influence the outcome of the game, including team performance, past results, coaching, and any other relevant factors.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-10 in terms of strength, with 10 being the strongest):

* Utah's home-field advantage: Playing at Rice-Eccles Stadium might give the Utah team an edge, as they are familiar with the environment and the crowd (Strength: 6)
* Utah's strong defense: Utah's defense has been performing well this season, which could make it challenging for Oregon to score (Strength: 7)
* Oregon's inconsistent offense: Oregon's offense has had its ups and downs this season, and they might struggle to maintain a high level of performance (Strength: 5)
* Utah's experience in big games: Utah has experience playing in high-stakes games, which could give them an edge in terms of mental toughness and composure (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-10 in terms of strength, with 10 being the strongest):

* Oregon's strong offense: Oregon has a potent offense, led by their quarterback, which could lead to a high-scoring game (Strength: 9)
* Utah's vulnerable offense: Utah's offense has struggled at times this season, which could give Oregon an opportunity to capitalize (Strength: 6)
* Oregon's recent success: Oregon has been performing well in recent weeks, which could carry over into this game (Strength: 7)
* Coaching advantage: Oregon's coach has a track record of success in big games, which could give them an edge (Strength: 8)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the factors mentioned above, I believe that the game will be closely contested, with both teams having their strengths and weaknesses. However, Oregon's strong offense and recent success give them an edge, while Utah's home-field advantage and strong defense make them a formidable opponent.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of Oregon defeating Utah at around 62%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability seems relatively high, considering that Utah is playing at home and has a strong defense. However, Oregon's offense is a significant factor that could swing the game in their favor. I might have underestimated the impact of Utah's home-field advantage and overestimated Oregon's ability to maintain their recent success.

7. Final prediction:
*0.58*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.58
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Ukrainian military launch a large-scale counter-offensive against Russian forces in Ukraine before July 2023, as indicated by a significant escalation of military operations, troop movements, or a coordinated attack on Russian-held territory?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 60%** Ukraine's military might be waiting for better equipment, training, and strategic planning before launching a large-scale counter-offensive, which could take several months to prepare.
- **Strength: 40%** The Ukrainian military might be focusing on a more gradual and asymmetric approach, using guerrilla tactics and sabotage to wear down the Russian army, rather than a large-scale, conventional counter-offensive.
- **Strength: 30%** The Ukrainian government might be prioritizing diplomacy and negotiations with Russia to achieve a peaceful resolution to the conflict, potentially delaying a large-scale counter-offensive.
- **Strength: 20%** The Ukrainian military might be constrained by a lack of resources, including troops, equipment, and logistics, making a large-scale counter-offensive impractical at this time.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 80%** The Ukrainian military has been preparing for a counter-offensive for months, and there have been reports of significant troop movements and equipment buildup along the front lines.
- **Strength: 50%** Ukraine has received significant military aid from its Western allies, including the US, UK, and EU, which could provide the necessary resources for a large-scale counter-offensive.
- **Strength: 30%** The Russian army has suffered significant losses and setbacks in the conflict, which could create an opportunity for Ukraine to launch a successful counter-offensive.

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Ukrainian military has been preparing for a counter-offensive, and there are signs of significant troop movements and equipment buildup along the front lines. However, the military might be waiting for better equipment, training, and strategic planning before launching a large-scale attack. Additionally, the Ukrainian government might be prioritizing diplomacy and negotiations with Russia. Considering these factors, the likelihood of a large-scale counter-offensive before July 2023 is uncertain.

5. Initial probability:
60

6. Evaluation:
The initial probability of 60% might be too confident, given the uncertainty surrounding the Ukrainian military's plans and the complexities of the conflict. The base rate of large-scale counter-offensives is relatively low, and the outcome is heavily influenced by factors such as military strategy, resource availability, and diplomatic efforts.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Tennessee Titans win the game against the Seattle Seahawks at Nissan Stadium on December 24, 2023, at 10:00 PST? The game's outcome will determine whether the answer is yes, no, or not applicable (N/A) in case of a tie. 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

- The Seattle Seahawks have a strong defense, which could limit the Titans' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Titans have struggled with consistency throughout the season, which might affect their performance in this game. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Seahawks' offense, led by quarterback Geno Smith, has shown improvement in recent games, potentially making them a more formidable opponent. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Titans might be facing a tough schedule and travel fatigue, which could impact their performance. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Seahawks have home-field advantage in their last game, which might not be a significant factor in this case since the game is at Nissan Stadium. (Strength: 3/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

- The Titans have a strong offense led by quarterback Ryan Tannehill, which could help them score points against the Seahawks. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Seahawks have struggled with injuries to key players, which might affect their performance in this game. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Titans have a solid defense that could contain the Seahawks' offense. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Titans have a recent history of success against the Seahawks, which might give them an edge. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Titans have been performing well in their recent games, which could indicate a strong momentum. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
After considering the reasons for both yes and no, it seems that the game is relatively evenly matched. The Seahawks' strong defense and offense, combined with the Titans' inconsistent performance and the potential impact of travel fatigue, make it a challenging game to predict. However, the Titans' strong offense and recent momentum, as well as the Seahawks' injuries, might give the Titans an edge.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of the Titans winning as 55%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 55% seems relatively moderate, considering the balanced nature of the teams. However, it might be slightly too low, given the Titans' recent performance and the Seahawks' injuries. The base rate of the event is not directly applicable in this case, as it's a specific game prediction.

7. Final prediction:
*0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Green Bay Packers defeat the Kansas City Chiefs in their Week 13 game on December 3, 2023, at Lambeau Field, which starts at 5:20 PST? If the game ends in a tie, the answer will be NO. If the game does not have a clear winner, the answer will be N/A. I resolve markets quickly, usually within an hour of the event ending, and create markets for every game, occasionally subsidizing them. In cases not explicitly covered, I will use my judgment to make a decision based on the spirit of the question. Technicalities like the game ending at 12:01 AM on December 4 will not be considered.

2. Reasons why the answer might be NO (with strength ratings from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- The Kansas City Chiefs have a strong offense led by Patrick Mahomes, which could overwhelm the Green Bay Packers' defense (Strength: 8)
- The Packers' defense has struggled against high-powered offenses this season (Strength: 7)
- The Chiefs have a more experienced and consistent team compared to the Packers (Strength: 6)
- The Packers might be facing a tough schedule stretch in the second half of the season (Strength: 5)
- The Chiefs have a strong home record, but the game is at Lambeau Field (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be YES (with strength ratings from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- The Packers have a strong home-field advantage at Lambeau Field, which could help them secure a win (Strength: 9)
- The Packers' defense has shown improvement in recent weeks, which could help them contain the Chiefs' offense (Strength: 8)
- The Chiefs might be vulnerable to a high-pressure game environment at Lambeau Field (Strength: 7)
- The Packers have a strong running game, which could help them control the clock and limit the Chiefs' possessions (Strength: 6)
- The Packers have experience playing in big games, which could give them an edge (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the home-field advantage of the Packers, and the Chiefs' vulnerability to a high-pressure game environment, I lean towards the Packers having a slight advantage. However, the Chiefs' strong offense and experience make them a formidable opponent. I will need to balance these factors to make a prediction.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I estimate the probability of the Packers beating the Chiefs as 55%.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
My initial probability might be slightly too confident, as there are many factors at play in a single game. However, I have considered the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, as well as the game environment. The base rate of the Packers beating the Chiefs in this game is relatively low, given the Chiefs' overall strength. I should be cautious not to overestimate the Packers' chances.

7. Final prediction:
*0.53*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.53
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will the Los Angeles Chargers beat the Kansas City Chiefs in their NFL Week 18 game scheduled to take place at SoFi Stadium on January 5, 2024, at 10:00 PST, considering all relevant factors such as team performance, past matchups, and any other relevant information up to the close date of January 8, 2024?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

* The Kansas City Chiefs have historically been a strong team in the AFC West, and their rivalry with the Los Angeles Chargers is intense, which could give them an edge. (Strength: 6/10)
* The Chargers have struggled with consistency throughout the season, which may impact their performance in a crucial game like this. (Strength: 5/10)
* Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs' quarterback, has a history of performing well under pressure and has led his team to several comeback victories. (Strength: 8/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

* The Chargers have shown improvements in their offense this season, which could give them a competitive edge against the Chiefs. (Strength: 7/10)
* The Chiefs have had some injuries to key players, which could impact their performance in this game. (Strength: 6/10)
* The Chargers have a strong defense, which could help them contain the Chiefs' high-powered offense. (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the strengths of both teams and the factors mentioned above, it seems that the game is relatively evenly matched. The Chiefs' historical dominance and Patrick Mahomes' clutch performances give them an edge, but the Chargers' improvements and strong defense make them a competitive opponent.

5. Initial probability: 42%

6. Evaluation: The initial probability seems relatively neutral, reflecting the balanced nature of the teams. However, considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the Chargers beating the Chiefs in a single game), the probability might be slightly lower. Additionally, the Chiefs' historical performance in this rivalry and Patrick Mahomes' abilities make them a more likely winner.

7. Final prediction: *0.38*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.38
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will the New York Giants defeat the Green Bay Packers in their NFL Week 14 matchup on December 11, 2023, at MetLife Stadium, which starts at 5:15 PM PST?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strong to weak):
   a. The Green Bay Packers have a strong offense led by quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has a history of performing well in big games. (Strength: 8/10)
   b. The Packers have a solid defense that can pressure the quarterback and limit opponents' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 7.5/10)
   c. The Giants may struggle to contain the Packers' running back, potentially allowing them to control the clock and limit the Giants' scoring chances. (Strength: 6.5/10)
   d. The Giants are still a relatively young team and may be more prone to mistakes, which could be exploited by the Packers. (Strength: 5.5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strong to weak):
   a. The Giants have a strong defensive line that can disrupt the Packers' passing game and pressure Aaron Rodgers. (Strength: 8.5/10)
   b. The Giants' offense, led by quarterback Daniel Jones, has shown improvement this season and may be able to move the ball effectively against the Packers. (Strength: 7.5/10)
   c. The Packers have been inconsistent this season, and a loss could be a possibility if they struggle to contain the Giants' offense. (Strength: 6.5/10)
   d. The Giants have home-field advantage at MetLife Stadium, which could give them an edge in terms of crowd support and familiarity with the playing surface. (Strength: 5.5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations: The Packers' strong offense and defense are balanced by the Giants' strong defensive line and improving offense. The Packers' inconsistency this season adds some uncertainty, but their overall talent and experience give them an edge.

5. Initial probability: 45

6. Evaluation: The initial probability seems reasonable, given the balance of factors. However, it's worth considering the base rate of NFL games, which is around 50% for the home team winning. This might suggest that the probability should be slightly higher, around 55-60%. Additionally, the Packers' recent performance and the Giants' youth might be underemphasized in the initial probability.

7. Final prediction: *0.58*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.58
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Cleveland Browns win the game against the Chicago Bears in their Week 15 matchup scheduled to take place at Cleveland Browns Stadium on December 17, 2023, at 5:15 PM PST (8:15 PM EST)? 

Given the original question's conditions, the rephrased and expanded question maintains all the necessary information, including the specific date, time, and location of the game. This expanded question allows for a more comprehensive analysis of the factors that might influence the outcome.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is the weakest and 5 is the strongest):

- The Chicago Bears have a strong defense, which could limit the Cleveland Browns' offense. (Strength: 4)
- The Cleveland Browns have struggled with consistency throughout the season, which might impact their performance in this game. (Strength: 3)
- The Bears have a slightly better record compared to the Browns, which could give them an edge in the matchup. (Strength: 2)
- The Browns have a tough schedule leading up to this game, which might affect their preparation and performance. (Strength: 3)
- The Bears have a strong home record, but since this game is at the Browns' stadium, this reason is less relevant. (Strength: 1)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is the weakest and 5 is the strongest):

- The Cleveland Browns have a strong home-field advantage, which could give them an edge in the game. (Strength: 4)
- The Browns have a more potent offense compared to the Bears, which could lead to a higher scoring output. (Strength: 4)
- The Browns have a more experienced quarterback, which might provide an advantage over the Bears' quarterback. (Strength: 3)
- The Browns have a solid running game, which could help control the tempo of the game. (Strength: 3)
- The Bears have struggled with injuries to key players, which might impact their performance in this game. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, the Cleveland Browns' home-field advantage, strong offense, and experience at quarterback seem to give them an edge. However, the Bears' strong defense and slight better record could counterbalance these advantages. The Browns' consistency issues and tough schedule leading up to the game also pose a risk.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Cleveland Browns winning the game to be around 62%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident. The factors that could influence the game are complex and numerous, and there is always a risk of unexpected events occurring. Considering the base rate of NFL games, it's essential to acknowledge that upsets can happen frequently. Therefore, the initial probability might be slightly overconfident.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Buffalo Bills defeat the New York Giants in their NFL Week 6 game on October 15, 2023, at Highmark Stadium, which starts at 17:20 PDT?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength of each reason):
- The Buffalo Bills have had inconsistent performances this season, with some strong wins and some close losses. (Strength: 6/10)
- The New York Giants have a strong running game, which could give the Bills' defense trouble. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Bills are on the road in this game, which could be a disadvantage for them. (Strength: 4/10)
- The Giants have a decent passing game and could exploit the Bills' secondary if they are not careful. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Bills have been dealing with injuries to key players this season. (Strength: 6/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength of each reason):
- The Bills have a strong offense, led by Josh Allen, which could overpower the Giants' defense. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Bills have a solid home-field advantage at Highmark Stadium, which could give them an edge. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Giants have struggled on the road this season, which could make it difficult for them to win. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Bills have a good chance of containing the Giants' running game, which would limit their scoring opportunities. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Bills have a strong defense, which could shut down the Giants' passing game. (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations: 
The Bills have a strong offense and defense, but have had inconsistent performances this season. The Giants have a strong running game and have struggled on the road. Considering these factors, it seems like the Bills have a slight edge, but it's not a clear-cut victory.

5. Initial probability: 62

6. Evaluation of initial probability: 
My initial probability of 62 seems reasonable, as it reflects the Bills' strengths and weaknesses, as well as the Giants' strengths and weaknesses. However, it's possible that I may have underestimated the Bills' inconsistency or the Giants' running game. I should also consider the base rate of NFL games, which is roughly 50% for home teams. However, the Bills are not the home team in this case.

7. Final prediction: *0.59*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.59
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the exchange rate of the Russian Ruble (RUB) against the US dollar (USD) fall below $0.00900 at any point between August 13, 2022, and December 31, 2023, 23:59, according to the exchange rates provided on XE.com? The exchange rate will be the resolution source for this question.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

- **Reason 1: Central Bank Intervention**: The Central Bank of Russia might intervene in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the Ruble and prevent a significant decline in value. (Strength: 6/10)
- **Reason 2: Economic Recovery**: Russia's economy might experience a recovery, driven by increased oil prices, sanctions relief, or other factors, which could lead to a strengthening Ruble. (Strength: 5/10)
- **Reason 3: Government Support**: The Russian government might implement policies to support the Ruble, such as increasing interest rates or imposing capital controls, to prevent a sharp decline. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

- **Reason 1: Sanctions Impact**: Ongoing international sanctions against Russia could continue to weaken the Ruble by limiting its access to foreign capital and trade. (Strength: 8/10)
- **Reason 2: Economic Contraction**: Russia's economy might contract due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, leading to a decline in the Ruble's value. (Strength: 7/10)
- **Reason 3: Capital Flight**: Investors might continue to flee the Russian market, leading to a decrease in the Ruble's value as a result of capital outflows. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the most significant factors influencing the Ruble's value are the ongoing sanctions and the economic impact of the conflict in Ukraine. While the Central Bank of Russia and the government might intervene to stabilize the currency, the likelihood of a significant decline in the Ruble's value seems higher due to the ongoing economic and geopolitical tensions.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Ruble falling below $0.00900 as 60.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively high, considering the base rate of the event is low (i.e., a significant decline in the Ruble's value is not a common occurrence). However, given the ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic challenges facing Russia, the probability seems reasonable.

7. Final prediction:
*0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win against the Miami Dolphins in their NFL Week 7 game scheduled to take place at Lincoln Financial Field on October 22, 2023, at 17:20 PDT?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-10, 10 being the strongest):
- The Eagles' offense has struggled to maintain consistency in their previous games, which might affect their performance against the Dolphins (strength: 6).
- The Dolphins have a strong defense, ranked among the top in the league, which could hinder the Eagles' scoring (strength: 8).
- The Eagles might be underestimating the Dolphins' team, leading to complacency and a lack of focus, which could result in a loss (strength: 4).
- The Dolphins have a relatively easier schedule leading up to this game, which might give them an advantage in terms of rest and momentum (strength: 5).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-10, 10 being the strongest):
- The Eagles have a strong home-field advantage, with Lincoln Financial Field being one of the toughest venues for opposing teams (strength: 9).
- The Eagles' quarterback, Jalen Hurts, has shown exceptional leadership and ability to perform under pressure, which could help the team overcome any challenges (strength: 8).
- The Dolphins have struggled on the road, with a poor record away from their home stadium (strength: 7).
- The Eagles have a well-rounded team with a strong defense and a balanced offense, which could give them an edge over the Dolphins (strength: 9).

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Eagles' home-field advantage and strong quarterback play are significant strengths, but the Dolphins' strong defense and the Eagles' inconsistent offense are significant concerns. The Eagles' ability to perform under pressure and their well-rounded team could give them an edge, but the Dolphins' road struggles and the Eagles' previous inconsistency might affect the outcome.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would initially estimate the probability of the Eagles winning at 60.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability might be slightly too confident, as there are many factors that could influence the outcome of the game. The Eagles' inconsistency and the Dolphins' strong defense are significant concerns that could lead to a loss. However, the Eagles' home-field advantage and strong quarterback play are significant strengths that could give them an edge.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Donald Trump participate in the First Republican Primary Debate on August 23rd, 2023? Given the information available up to July 20th, 2023, what are the likelihood and reasons for Donald Trump's participation in the debate, considering his past behavior, current presidential campaign status, and any relevant news or updates that might influence his decision?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-10 for strength):
- He has been known to be unpredictable and might decide not to participate at the last minute (Strength: 8)
- Trump has a history of skipping debates or events that he perceives as unfavorable to him (Strength: 7)
- The debate's format or moderators might not align with Trump's preferences (Strength: 5)
- Trump might be focusing on other campaign strategies, such as social media or rallies, instead of debates (Strength: 6)
- There might be internal party conflicts or disagreements that lead to his absence (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-10 for strength):
- Trump has a history of participating in debates, especially when he feels confident in his chances (Strength: 9)
- He might see the debate as an opportunity to gain momentum and visibility (Strength: 8)
- Trump often uses debates to attack his opponents and gain media attention (Strength: 8)
- He has a strong base of supporters who would be disappointed if he didn't participate (Strength: 6)
- Trump's campaign might have already confirmed his participation, but this information is not publicly available (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, it seems that the likelihood of Trump participating in the debate is high, but there are some factors that could lead to his absence. The strength of the reasons for him participating seems to outweigh the reasons for him not participating.

5. Initial probability: 70

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 70 seems reasonable, given the mixed signals from Trump's past behavior and the current campaign status. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of debates in general, which is typically high for presidential candidates. Additionally, the fact that the question is about a specific debate on a specific date might make it more challenging to predict with certainty.

7. Final prediction: *0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the New England Patriots win the NFL game against the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium on October 22, 2023, at 10:00 PDT?

The question is asking for a prediction of the outcome of a specific NFL game, with the Patriots being the home team. The game will take place on October 22, 2023, at 10:00 PDT at Gillette Stadium. The resolution criteria are not applicable/available for this question. The question will be resolved as "yes" if the Patriots win the game, "no" if the Bills win, and "N/A" if the game ends in a tie.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The Bills have a strong defense, which could limit the Patriots' offense. (Strength: 4)
- The Patriots are dealing with injuries to key players, which could impact their performance. (Strength: 3)
- The Bills have a strong running game, which could wear down the Patriots' defense. (Strength: 3)
- The Patriots' quarterback may struggle with turnovers, which could give the Bills opportunities to score. (Strength: 2)
- The Bills have a good record so far this season, indicating they are a strong team. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The Patriots have a strong home-field advantage at Gillette Stadium, which could give them an edge. (Strength: 4)
- The Patriots' quarterback has a history of performing well in big games. (Strength: 3)
- The Bills' defense may struggle to contain the Patriots' passing game. (Strength: 3)
- The Patriots have a good record so far this season, indicating they are a strong team. (Strength: 2)
- The Bills may be due for a letdown game after a recent win. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Patriots have a strong home-field advantage, but the Bills have a good defense and running game. The Patriots are dealing with injuries, but their quarterback has a history of performing well in big games. The Bills are a strong team, but may be due for a letdown game. Overall, it's a close game, but the Patriots' home-field advantage and quarterback's performance give them a slight edge.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially predict a 55% chance that the Patriots will win the game.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability is not excessively confident, but it may not be confident enough. The Patriots' home-field advantage and quarterback's performance are significant factors, but the Bills' defense and running game are also strong. Additionally, the Bills' recent performance and team record should not be underestimated. Considering these factors, I may want to adjust my probability to be slightly more conservative.

7. Final prediction:
*0.52*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.52
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will the Green Bay Packers defeat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their Week 15 NFL game on December 17, 2023, at Lambeau Field, starting at 10:00 PST? This question will resolve to "yes" if the Packers win the game, "no" if they lose, and "N/A" if the game ends in a tie. 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated by strength of reason):
   - The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a strong offense, which could give the Packers trouble (Strength: 6/10).
   - The Packers have had inconsistent performances this season, which might affect their ability to win against a strong opponent (Strength: 7/10).
   - The Buccaneers have a more experienced quarterback in Tom Brady, who has a history of performing well under pressure (Strength: 8/10).
   - The Packers might struggle to contain the Buccaneers' running back, which could give them an advantage (Strength: 5/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated by strength of reason):
   - The Packers have a strong home-field advantage at Lambeau Field, which could give them an edge (Strength: 8/10).
   - The Packers' defense has been improving throughout the season and might be able to contain the Buccaneers' offense (Strength: 7/10).
   - The Packers have a more well-rounded team with a strong running game and a solid defense (Strength: 6/10).
   - The Buccaneers have struggled on the road this season, which could give the Packers an advantage (Strength: 5/10).

4. Aggregated considerations: The Packers' home-field advantage, improving defense, and well-rounded team could give them an edge, but the Buccaneers' strong offense, experience with Tom Brady, and potential running game advantages might counterbalance these factors.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of initial probability: The initial probability seems reasonable, considering the Packers' strengths and the Buccaneers' weaknesses. However, it might be slightly too optimistic, given the Buccaneers' overall performance and experience. It's also worth considering the base rate of the Packers winning at home, which is around 60-70% for NFL teams.

7. Final prediction: *0.58*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.58
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Jordan win against the United States in their group stage match at the 2023 FIBA World Cup, which is scheduled to take place on August 30, 2023? Considering the teams' past performances, current team dynamics, and other factors that might influence the outcome, what is the likelihood of Jordan emerging victorious in this match?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and the strength of each reason):
- The United States has a strong basketball tradition and often has a competitive team at the FIBA World Cup, with many talented players. (Strength: 8/10)
- Jordan's basketball team might face difficulties in keeping up with the USA's pace and high-scoring offense. (Strength: 7/10)
- The USA has a significant advantage in terms of resources, talent pool, and coaching experience. (Strength: 9/10)
- Jordan's team might struggle with the pressure of playing against a strong opponent like the USA, which could lead to mental errors and decreased performance. (Strength: 6/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and the strength of each reason):
- Jordan has shown improvement in their basketball program in recent years, with a more competitive team and better coaching. (Strength: 5/10)
- The USA might not have a dominant team at the 2023 FIBA World Cup, which could give Jordan an opportunity to capitalize on their opponents' weaknesses. (Strength: 4/10)
- Jordan's team might have a strong home advantage, as the match is likely to be played in Jordan, which could boost their morale and energy. (Strength: 3/10)
- Jordan's team might employ a strategic game plan that exploits the USA's weaknesses, such as their defensive vulnerabilities. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the USA's advantages in resources, talent, and coaching experience are significant. However, Jordan's improvement in their basketball program and potential home advantage could give them a chance to compete against the USA. The likelihood of Jordan winning against the USA is low, but not impossible.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of Jordan winning against the USA as 15%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 15% might be considered not confident enough, given the USA's significant advantages. However, it's also possible that Jordan's improvement and home advantage could lead to an upset. Another consideration is the base rate of upsets in international basketball tournaments, which is relatively low. Considering these factors, the initial probability might be slightly too low.

7. Final prediction:
*0.20*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.2
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the NFL game against the Denver Broncos on December 10, 2023, at SoFi Stadium, which starts at 1:25 PST?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Injuries to key players**: The Chargers have had issues with injuries throughout the season, and if key players are injured, it could significantly impact their performance. (Strength: 60%)
- **Reason 2: Denver Broncos' recent improvement**: The Denver Broncos have shown improvement in their recent games, which could indicate a strong performance against the Chargers. (Strength: 40%)
- **Reason 3: Away team struggles**: The Chargers have struggled in away games this season, which could lead to a tough game against the Broncos at their home stadium. (Strength: 50%)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Chargers' home advantage**: Although the game is at SoFi Stadium, it's a neutral site for the Chargers, which could give them a slight advantage. (Strength: 30%)
- **Reason 2: Chargers' strong offense**: The Chargers have a strong offense, which could lead to a high-scoring game and potentially an advantage over the Broncos. (Strength: 70%)
- **Reason 3: Broncos' recent struggles**: The Broncos have struggled in recent games, which could indicate a weak performance against the Chargers. (Strength: 60%)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the Chargers have a slight advantage due to their strong offense and the Broncos' recent struggles. However, the Chargers' injury concerns and away team struggles could impact their performance. The neutral site and the Broncos' recent improvement also play a role in the balance.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Chargers winning as 65%.

6. Evaluation and adjustment:
Upon further consideration, I realize that the initial probability might be too confident. The NFL is a highly competitive league, and many factors can influence the outcome of a game. The base rate of the event (i.e., the Chargers winning) is not explicitly stated, but it's likely around 50% given the competitiveness of the league. I also consider that the initial probability might be biased towards the Chargers due to their strong offense. To adjust for this, I might reduce the initial probability to account for the uncertainty and competitiveness of the league.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the New York Knicks win their game against the Boston Celtics on October 25, 2023, at 4:00 pm PDT? This question is an experiment to gauge the performance of the NBA markets, and I will provide a prediction based on my understanding of the teams' past performances, current rosters, and any other relevant factors. If the game is rescheduled or if there's a replay due to a mistake, I will update my prediction accordingly. I will use my best judgment to resolve any unforeseen edge cases.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

- The Boston Celtics have a strong team with a good balance of offense and defense, which could give them an edge over the New York Knicks. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Knicks have undergone some roster changes and injuries in the off-season, which might affect their performance. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Celtics have a strong home-court advantage, and their fans might give them an extra boost in the game. (Strength: 4/10)
- The Knicks have struggled against the Celtics in recent years, with a losing record against them. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

- The Knicks have a strong young core, including players like Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett, who could lead the team to a win. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Celtics' roster has some question marks, particularly in the backcourt, which could be exploited by the Knicks. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Knicks have a good balance of offense and defense, which could help them compete with the Celtics. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Knicks have a strong home-road record, which might not be a significant factor in this game. (Strength: 3/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Celtics have a strong team with a good balance of offense and defense, but the Knicks have a strong young core and a good balance of offense and defense. The Celtics' home-court advantage and recent dominance over the Knicks are also factors to consider. However, the Knicks' roster changes and injuries might affect their performance.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the Knicks' chances of winning as 55%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be too high considering the Celtics' strong team and recent dominance over the Knicks. The base rate of the Knicks winning against the Celtics is relatively low, which might suggest a lower probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will China's Defense Minister Li Shangfu make a public appearance or issue a statement by October 15, 2023, as reported by official Chinese government websites, press releases, or major international news outlets? A public appearance is defined as any event, meeting, or function where Li Shangfu is seen and reported by major news outlets. A statement is defined as any official communication, interview, or announcement made by or on behalf of Li Shangfu. Social media posts, rumors, or unofficial sources will not be considered as valid evidence of a public appearance or statement. The resolution source is limited to official Chinese government websites, press releases, or major international news outlets.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Li Shangfu's relatively low profile**: As a new defense minister, Li Shangfu may not have a strong public presence, and his office might be cautious about public appearances or statements to avoid controversy or unwanted attention. Strength: 6/10
- **Reason 2: China's sensitive defense policies**: The Chinese government might be hesitant to make public statements or appearances by its defense minister, especially if they involve sensitive topics like military operations, territorial disputes, or relations with other countries. Strength: 8/10
- **Reason 3: Li Shangfu's background and experience**: As a relatively new defense minister, Li Shangfu might not have the same level of experience or familiarity with the international media and public expectations as his predecessors. This could lead to a more cautious approach to public appearances and statements. Strength: 5/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Official duties and responsibilities**: As the defense minister, Li Shangfu will likely have official duties and responsibilities that require him to make public appearances or issue statements, such as attending military parades, visiting military bases, or commenting on national security issues. Strength: 9/10
- **Reason 2: China's increasing global influence**: As China's global influence grows, its defense minister may be called upon to make public appearances or statements to promote China's military capabilities, defense policies, or international relations. Strength: 8/10
- **Reason 3: International events and summits**: Li Shangfu might be invited to attend international events, such as defense summits, conferences, or meetings with foreign leaders, which could provide opportunities for public appearances or statements. Strength: 7/10

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, it seems that the likelihood of Li Shangfu making a public appearance or issuing a statement by October 15, 2023, is relatively high. However, the cautious approach of the Chinese government and Li Shangfu's relatively low profile as a new defense minister might temper this likelihood.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be around 70%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 70% seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident. The reasons for a "no" answer, such as Li Shangfu's low profile and China's sensitive defense policies, are not negligible. A more conservative approach might be warranted.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Detroit Lions defeat the Denver Broncos in their NFL game on December 16, 2023, at Ford Field, which is scheduled to start at 5:15 PM PST (8:15 PM EST)? This question is asking for the outcome of a specific football game, and the resolution criteria are not applicable. The market will resolve as "yes" if the Lions win the game, "no" if they lose, and "N/A" if the game ends in a tie or does not have a clear winner due to other circumstances.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: The Detroit Lions have struggled with consistency and have a mediocre record (6-7).** (Strength: 6/10) The Lions have shown flashes of brilliance but have not been able to sustain a winning streak, which makes it difficult to predict a victory against a team like the Denver Broncos.
- **Reason 2: The Denver Broncos have a strong defense, which could limit the Lions' scoring opportunities.** (Strength: 7/10) The Broncos have a solid defense that has been able to shut down opponents' offenses, which could make it challenging for the Lions to score enough points to win the game.
- **Reason 3: The Lions have been plagued by injuries to key players, which could impact their performance.** (Strength: 5/10) The Lions have dealt with injuries to several key players throughout the season, and it's possible that these injuries could continue to affect their performance in the game against the Broncos.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: The Lions have a strong home-field advantage at Ford Field, which could give them an edge.** (Strength: 8/10) The Lions have played well at home this season, and Ford Field is known to be a challenging environment for opposing teams.
- **Reason 2: The Broncos have been inconsistent on the road, which could lead to a Lions victory.** (Strength: 6/10) The Broncos have struggled on the road this season, which could make it difficult for them to win in Detroit.
- **Reason 3: The Lions have a talented quarterback in Jared Goff, who has shown the ability to make big plays.** (Strength: 7/10) Goff has been able to make plays with his arm and legs, which could give the Lions a chance to win the game.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, I believe that the Detroit Lions have a slight advantage in this game. While the Broncos have a strong defense, the Lions have a strong home-field advantage and a talented quarterback in Jared Goff. Additionally, the Broncos have been inconsistent on the road, which could give the Lions an opportunity to win.

5. Initial probability:
Based on my aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Lions defeating the Broncos at 55%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 55% seems reasonable, but it may be too conservative. The Lions have a strong home-field advantage, and the Broncos have been inconsistent on the road. Additionally, the Lions have a talented quarterback in Jared Goff, which could give them a chance to win the game. However, the Broncos' strong defense is a significant factor to consider, and the Lions have struggled with consistency throughout the season.

7. Final prediction:
*0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Greece win against the USA in their upcoming group stage match at the 2023 FIBA World Cup on August 28, 2023, given that the game is happening the next day, and considering the current date is August 27, 2023? This question is a prediction based on the available information up to August 27, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 6/10**: The USA has a strong basketball team with a rich history of international success, including multiple Olympic gold medals and FIBA World Cup titles. Their team may have an advantage in terms of experience and talent.
- **Strength: 4/10**: The USA has a deep pool of talented players, with many professional players in the NBA, which could give them a significant edge in terms of skill and athleticism.
- **Strength: 3/10**: The USA team has a more established team culture and chemistry, having played together in various international competitions, which could help them perform better under pressure.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 2/10**: Greece has a strong basketball tradition and has produced successful teams in the past, including a FIBA EuroBasket title in 2005. They may have a good understanding of the game and team dynamics.
- **Strength: 1/10**: Greece has a few talented players who could potentially make a significant impact in the game, such as Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is an NBA star.
- **Strength: 1/10**: Greece's team might be well-prepared and motivated to face the USA, which could lead to an upset.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the USA seems to have a significant advantage due to their experience, talent, and team culture. Greece has some potential, but it's relatively limited compared to the USA. However, upsets can happen in basketball, especially in international competitions where teams may be more evenly matched.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of Greece winning against the USA at around 15%. This is a relatively low probability, reflecting the USA's overall strength and experience.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
The initial probability might be too low, given that Greece has a few talented players and a strong basketball tradition. It's also possible that the USA might not be as dominant as expected, especially if they're not fully prepared or motivated. However, the USA's overall strength and experience should still give them a significant advantage.

7. Final prediction:
*0.20*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.2
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Las Vegas Raiders beat the Minnesota Vikings in their Week 14 NFL game on December 10, 2023, at Allegiant Stadium, played at 1:05 PST? 

Given the above question, I will maintain all the information in the original question, including the resolution criteria, date, and market specifics.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- The Las Vegas Raiders have been inconsistent in their performance this season, with several close losses. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Minnesota Vikings have a strong defense, ranking high in the league in several categories, which could limit the Raiders' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Vikings have a more balanced offense compared to the Raiders, with a strong running game and a capable quarterback. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Raiders may struggle with injuries or other absences, which could impact their performance. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- The Raiders have a strong home-field advantage at Allegiant Stadium, which could give them an edge. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Raiders have a potent offense, led by quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who has shown the ability to perform well in key games. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Vikings may struggle with turnovers or other mistakes, which the Raiders could capitalize on. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Raiders have a strong team morale and motivation, which could give them an intangible boost. (Strength: 3/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Las Vegas Raiders have a slightly higher chance of winning due to their home-field advantage and potent offense. However, the Minnesota Vikings' strong defense and balanced offense make them a formidable opponent. The Raiders' inconsistency and potential injuries are also a concern. Overall, it's a close and competitive matchup.

5. Initial probability:
60

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, as both teams have a strong case, but the Raiders' home-field advantage and offense give them a slight edge. However, the Vikings' defense and balanced offense make it a close contest. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of the Raiders winning a random game), it's likely around 50%. Therefore, the calculated probability might be slightly too high.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Chicago Bears beat the Detroit Lions in their Week 14 game on December 10, 2023, at Soldier Field, which starts at 10:00 PST?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-10, where 1 is a weak reason and 10 is a strong reason):
- The Detroit Lions have a history of competitive games against the Chicago Bears, and this could lead to a close and potentially Lions' win (Strength: 6).
- The Lions have shown improvement in their team performance this season, which might translate to a better performance against the Bears (Strength: 5).
- The Bears have struggled with injuries to key players throughout the season, which could impact their performance (Strength: 8).
- The Lions have a relatively easier schedule compared to the Bears in the second half of the season, which might give them an edge (Strength: 4).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-10, where 1 is a weak reason and 10 is a strong reason):
- The Chicago Bears have a strong home-field advantage at Soldier Field, which could give them a boost in confidence and performance (Strength: 7).
- The Bears have a more experienced quarterback in Justin Fields compared to the Lions' Jared Goff (Strength: 6).
- The Bears have a solid defense, which has been a key factor in their wins this season (Strength: 9).
- The Lions have struggled with consistency throughout the season, which might affect their performance against the Bears (Strength: 5).

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Bears have a strong home-field advantage, a solid defense, and a more experienced quarterback. However, the Lions have shown improvement and have a relatively easier schedule. The Bears' injuries to key players and the Lions' consistency issues also need to be considered.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the Bears beating the Lions as 60.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems to be relatively high, considering the Lions' improvement and the Bears' injuries. However, the Bears' home-field advantage and strong defense might give them an edge. The base rate of the event is not explicitly given, but given the NFL's competitive nature, it's likely that the probability is around 50%. The initial probability might be slightly overconfident, considering the Lions' recent improvement.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Kevin McCarthy remain Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives without interruption from September 13, 2023, through November 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, according to official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Kevin McCarthy or his representative, or a consensus of credible reporting?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

* Reason 1: Kevin McCarthy's leadership is still relatively new and unstable, having taken office in January 2023. His leadership has been marked by internal conflicts and power struggles within the Republican Party (Strength: 6).
* Reason 2: There have been rumors and speculation about potential challenges to McCarthy's leadership, including from within his own party (Strength: 5).
* Reason 3: The Speaker of the House position is a key target for opposition parties and factions within the same party, and a challenge to McCarthy's leadership could be mounted by Democrats or Republicans dissatisfied with his performance (Strength: 8).
* Reason 4: The U.S. government has experienced recent instances of leadership changes, such as the January 6, 2021, storming of the Capitol, which could lead to increased instability and potential for leadership challenges (Strength: 7).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):

* Reason 1: Kevin McCarthy has a strong support base within the Republican Party, having won the Speaker election in January 2023 (Strength: 8).
* Reason 2: McCarthy has been working to maintain a balance of power within the House and has made concessions to various factions within his party (Strength: 7).
* Reason 3: The U.S. government has a tradition of stability in leadership positions, with Speakers typically serving out their full term (Strength: 9).
* Reason 4: McCarthy has a reputation for being a skilled politician and negotiator, which could help him navigate potential challenges to his leadership (Strength: 8).

4. Aggregated considerations:
The aggregated considerations suggest that while there are valid reasons for both a yes and no answer, the reasons for a yes answer seem to outweigh those for a no answer. The stability of the Speaker position, McCarthy's support base, and his reputation as a skilled politician all contribute to a favorable outlook for his continued leadership. However, the potential for internal conflicts, opposition from within his own party, and the history of leadership challenges in the U.S. government introduce uncertainty.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Kevin McCarthy remaining Speaker through November 15, 2023, as 75.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 75 seems reasonable, given the balance of reasons for a yes and no answer. However, it may be too confident, considering the potential for unexpected events or challenges to McCarthy's leadership. The base rate of leadership changes in the U.S. government is relatively low, but not zero.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Miami Dolphins win against the New York Jets in their NFL Week 15 game on December 17, 2023, at Hard Rock Stadium, which starts at 10:00 PST?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- The New York Jets have been improving in recent weeks, which might give them an edge in this game (Strength: 6/10)
- The Miami Dolphins have struggled with injuries to key players, which could impact their performance (Strength: 7/10)
- The Jets have a strong home-field advantage when playing against divisional opponents (Strength: 5/10)
- The Dolphins might be looking ahead to their next game or have a letdown after a big win, leading to a loss (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- The Dolphins have a strong offense, led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, which could give them an advantage (Strength: 8/10)
- The Dolphins have been playing well at home, with a strong record at Hard Rock Stadium (Strength: 7/10)
- The Jets have struggled on the road, which could give the Dolphins an edge (Strength: 6/10)
- The Dolphins have a strong defense, which could contain the Jets' offense (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, I think the Dolphins have a slight edge in this game. Their strong offense and defense should give them an advantage, but the Jets' improvement and home-field advantage could make it a competitive game.

5. Initial probability:
Based on my aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Dolphins winning as 65.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
My initial probability seems relatively moderate, but I might be underestimating the Jets' improvement and the Dolphins' potential letdown. However, I'm also considering the Dolphins' strong home record and their overall performance this season. The base rate of the Dolphins winning this game is not particularly high, as they are not a top-tier team in the NFL. However, they have been consistent and have a good chance of winning against a divisional opponent.

7. Final prediction:
*0.63*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.63
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will a hurricane make landfall in the State of Florida at any point during the month of September 2023? Given the current date of August 21, 2023, and the question's close date of October 1, 2023, we are looking to determine the likelihood of a hurricane impacting Florida within the next 40 days. The question does not provide any specific information about the background or resolution criteria, so we will rely on general knowledge and factors that influence hurricane activity in the region.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Reason 1: September is not the peak hurricane season in the Atlantic, which typically occurs in mid-to-late August and early September (Strength: 4). However, this does not necessarily mean September is an impossible month for hurricanes.
- Reason 2: The 2023 hurricane season has been relatively quiet so far, with no major hurricanes forming in the Atlantic (Strength: 3). This might suggest a possible lull in hurricane activity.
- Reason 3: The atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Atlantic may not be favorable for hurricane formation and intensification (Strength: 2). However, these conditions can change rapidly and are difficult to predict.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Reason 1: September is still within the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30 (Strength: 5). This means that the potential for hurricanes to form and affect Florida is still present.
- Reason 2: The Atlantic Ocean has been warmer than average this year, which can contribute to hurricane intensification (Strength: 4). Warmer ocean temperatures can provide the necessary energy for hurricanes to form and strengthen.
- Reason 3: The African easterly wave activity has been above average, which can lead to the development of tropical waves that can potentially become hurricanes (Strength: 3). These waves can move across the Atlantic and eventually affect Florida.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the above points, the likelihood of a hurricane hitting Florida in September 2023 is not low, but not extremely high either. The relatively quiet start to the season and the slightly less favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions might suggest a lower likelihood, but the fact that September is still within the hurricane season and the Atlantic Ocean has been warmer than average could contribute to a higher likelihood. Overall, the factors are relatively balanced, making it challenging to predict with high confidence.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 60 might be considered not confident enough, as it implies a relatively high likelihood of a hurricane hitting Florida in September 2023. However, considering the base rate of hurricanes in Florida (which is relatively high due to its location in a hurricane-prone area), this probability might be reasonable. Additionally, the base rate of hurricanes in the Atlantic is around 10-20% per year, which could influence our final prediction.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Golden State Warriors beat the Phoenix Suns in their NBA game on October 24, 2023, at 7:00 pm PDT? This question resolves to yes if the Warriors win the game, and no if they lose or the game ends in a draw. The market will track the result of the game and any potential rescheduled or replayed games due to mistakes. This market is part of an experiment to create markets for every NBA game and evaluate their performance.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1 to 10 for strength):
- The Warriors have a relatively new roster and may still be adjusting to each other's playing styles (Strength: 6)
- The Suns have a strong team with a good balance of offense and defense (Strength: 8)
- The Warriors have struggled in recent years with injuries to key players, which could impact their performance (Strength: 4)
- The Suns have a strong home-court advantage, and the game is taking place in their arena (Strength: 7)
- The Warriors have a relatively tough schedule leading up to this game, which might affect their energy and motivation (Strength: 5)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1 to 10 for strength):
- The Warriors have a strong team with a good balance of offense and defense (Strength: 9)
- The Warriors have a good coach and a strong team culture, which can help them perform well in big games (Strength: 7)
- The Suns have had some key player departures in the offseason, which might impact their performance (Strength: 6)
- The Warriors have a strong home-road record, and the game is taking place on the road for the Suns (Strength: 5)
- The Warriors have a strong bench, which can provide a significant advantage in a close game (Strength: 8)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Warriors have a strong team with a good balance of offense and defense, but the Suns also have a strong team with a good balance of offense and defense. The Warriors have a relatively new roster and may still be adjusting to each other's playing styles, which could impact their performance. The Suns have a strong home-court advantage, and the game is taking place in their arena. However, the Warriors have a strong coach and a good team culture, which can help them perform well in big games.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Warriors beating the Suns at around 55%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 55% seems reasonable, but it might be on the lower side considering the Warriors' strong team and coaching. The Warriors have a good balance of offense and defense, and their strong team culture can help them perform well in big games. However, the Suns have a strong team with a good balance of offense and defense, and their home-court advantage could be a significant factor. Additionally, the Warriors' relatively new roster and tough schedule leading up to this game might impact their performance.

7. Final prediction:
*0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Green Bay Packers defeat the Minnesota Vikings in their Week 8 matchup on October 29, 2023, at Lambeau Field, which starts at 10:00 PDT? The resolution of this question depends on the Packers winning the game outright, as a tie would result in a "no" answer. Any unforeseen circumstances that prevent a clear winner, such as a game ending in a draw, would be considered "N/A." The question is only resolvable on or before October 29, 2023.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The Packers' inconsistent performance this season, with a record of 4-2, may indicate they are not a dominant force in the league, making it harder to predict a win against a strong opponent like the Vikings. (Strength: 4)
- The Vikings have a strong defense and a solid offense, which could give the Packers trouble, especially if their offense struggles to score. (Strength: 4)
- The Packers' quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, has had some injuries and performance issues in the past, which could impact their chances of winning. (Strength: 3)
- The Vikings have a strong home record, and playing at Lambeau Field might not be enough to secure a win for the Packers. (Strength: 3)
- The Packers' recent history against the Vikings has been inconsistent, with a mix of wins and losses in recent years. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
- The Packers have a strong home-field advantage at Lambeau Field, which could give them an edge in the game. (Strength: 5)
- The Packers have a solid defense, which could help them contain the Vikings' offense and secure a win. (Strength: 4)
- The Vikings have had some injuries to key players, which could impact their performance in the game. (Strength: 4)
- The Packers have a strong running game, which could help them control the clock and wear down the Vikings' defense. (Strength: 3)
- The Packers' coach, Matt LaFleur, has shown the ability to make adjustments and come up with winning game plans. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a "yes" and "no" answer, it seems that the Packers have a slight edge in terms of home-field advantage and a strong defense. However, the Vikings' strong offense and recent performance could make it a competitive game. The Packers' inconsistent performance and Aaron Rodgers' injury concerns also raise some concerns.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Packers beating the Vikings at around 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, but it might be too confident given the competitive nature of the NFL and the many variables at play. The base rate of the event (i.e., the Packers winning a game) is not provided, but it's likely around 50% given their 4-2 record. Considering this, the initial probability might be too high. Additionally, there are many factors that could affect the game, such as weather conditions, injuries, and coaching decisions, which are not accounted for in the initial probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the U.S. Federal Reserve increase the federal funds rate by more than 1% by the end of 2023, as confirmed by the Federal Reserve's official Open Market Operations page, from the federal funds rate at the start of 2023? This question is based on the federal funds rate's historical trend, current economic conditions, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. The resolution will be determined by comparing the federal funds rate at the end of 2023 to the rate at the beginning of the year.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- **Reason 1:** The Federal Reserve has been cautious with interest rate hikes in recent years, and a significant increase of more than 1% might be too aggressive, considering the current economic situation. (Strength: 4)
- **Reason 2:** The inflation rate has been decreasing, and the Federal Reserve might not need to raise interest rates as much to control inflation. (Strength: 3)
- **Reason 3:** The economy might be experiencing a slowdown, and the Federal Reserve might not want to risk exacerbating the situation with large interest rate hikes. (Strength: 2)
- **Reason 4:** The Federal Reserve has been focusing on a "data-dependent" approach, and if the economic data does not justify a large increase, they might not raise interest rates by more than 1%. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- **Reason 1:** The Federal Reserve has been gradually increasing interest rates over the past few years to combat inflation and maintain economic growth. A further increase of more than 1% could be consistent with this trend. (Strength: 4)
- **Reason 2:** The labor market is still strong, and the Federal Reserve might want to maintain the momentum by keeping interest rates relatively high to prevent overheating. (Strength: 3)
- **Reason 3:** The Federal Reserve has signaled that they are committed to keeping inflation at 2%, and if inflation is still above target, they might need to raise interest rates more significantly. (Strength: 5)
- **Reason 4:** The Federal Reserve has been reducing their balance sheet, and this process might require higher interest rates to maintain the desired pace of reduction. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The reasons for a "no" are more focused on the Federal Reserve's cautious approach and the current economic situation, while the reasons for a "yes" are more focused on the Federal Reserve's historical trend and their commitment to maintaining economic growth and controlling inflation. However, the strength of the reasons for a "yes" is generally higher, especially considering the Federal Reserve's commitment to keeping inflation at 2%.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of the U.S. Federal Reserve increasing the federal funds rate by more than 1% by the end of 2023 to be around 60.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively high, considering the reasons for a "no" are not insignificant. However, the Federal Reserve's commitment to keeping inflation at 2% and their historical trend of gradually increasing interest rates make a significant increase more plausible. The base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates by more than 1% by the end of 2023) is likely relatively low, as the Federal Reserve has been cautious with interest rate hikes in recent years.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will the New England Patriots beat the Los Angeles Chargers in their Week 13 NFL game on December 3, 2023, at Gillette Stadium, which starts at 10:00 PST? Given the provided information, I will consider factors such as team performance, recent trends, injuries, and head-to-head matchups to make an informed prediction. I will also account for any potential edge cases or special circumstances that might affect the outcome of the game.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating out of 10):
   - The Los Angeles Chargers have a strong offense led by quarterback Justin Herbert, who has consistently shown his ability to perform under pressure. (Strength: 8)
   - The Chargers have a solid defense that has been improving throughout the season, which could pose a challenge to the Patriots' offense. (Strength: 7)
   - The Patriots might be facing a tough schedule in the second half of the season, and their performance might decline due to fatigue. (Strength: 6)
   - The Chargers have a better record and more momentum going into the game, which could give them an edge. (Strength: 8)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating out of 10):
   - The Patriots have a strong defense that has been one of the best in the league this season, which could limit the Chargers' offense. (Strength: 9)
   - The Patriots have a good home-field advantage at Gillette Stadium, where they have a strong record. (Strength: 7)
   - The Patriots' offense has been improving, and quarterback Mac Jones has been showing signs of growth. (Strength: 6)
   - The Chargers might be struggling with injuries to key players, which could affect their performance. (Strength: 5)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the factors mentioned above, it seems that the game will be closely contested. The Chargers' strong offense and improving defense make them a formidable opponent, while the Patriots' strong defense and home-field advantage give them an edge. However, the Patriots' offense has been improving, and the Chargers' potential injuries could impact their performance.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 55 seems reasonable given the balanced factors at play. However, it might be slightly too confident, as there are many variables that could affect the outcome of the game. The Patriots' recent performance and the Chargers' injuries might be more significant factors than initially considered.

7. Final prediction: *0.475*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.475
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the New York Jets defeat the Miami Dolphins in their NFL Week 12 game on November 24, 2023, at MetLife Stadium, which starts at 12:00 PST? Given the information provided, I will resolve this question as 'yes' if the Jets win the game, 'no' if they lose, and 'N/A' if the game ends in a tie or is otherwise inconclusive. The resolution of this question will be based on the spirit of the question and my best judgment in case of any unforeseen edge cases. I will resolve this market quickly, typically within an hour of the event ending, and may create markets for every game, occasionally subsidizing them.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- The Jets have struggled in their previous games, particularly in terms of consistency and team performance, which might indicate a lack of momentum going into this game. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Dolphins have a strong defense that could potentially limit the Jets' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Jets may face challenges with their passing game, which could be exploited by the Dolphins' defense. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Jets' quarterback may struggle to perform under pressure, which could negatively impact the team's chances of winning. (Strength: 6/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- The Jets have shown flashes of improvement in their recent games, indicating potential for growth and a possible upset. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Dolphins have had some inconsistencies in their performance, which the Jets might be able to capitalize on. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Jets have a strong running game that could help them control the clock and limit the Dolphins' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Jets may be able to exploit the Dolphins' weaknesses in their secondary, which could lead to scoring opportunities for the Jets. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the key factors that will influence the outcome of this game are the Jets' consistency, the Dolphins' defense, and the Jets' ability to exploit the Dolphins' weaknesses. While the Jets have struggled in the past, they have shown potential for growth, and their strong running game could be a significant factor in this game. The Dolphins' defense is a concern, but the Jets' ability to capitalize on their weaknesses could be the deciding factor.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of the Jets defeating the Dolphins to be around 52%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
My calculated probability seems reasonable, but it might be on the conservative side given the Jets' potential for growth and the Dolphins' inconsistencies. Considering the base rate of NFL games, where the home team wins around 55-60% of the time, my initial probability might be slightly too low.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Novak Djokovic, a professional tennis player, successfully reach the semifinals of the 2023 US Open, a prestigious Grand Slam tennis tournament, given his current form, past performances, and any relevant factors affecting his chances? This question considers the context of the US Open 2023, which is scheduled to take place from August 28 to September 10, 2023. The resolution criteria are not explicitly stated, but it can be inferred that reaching the semifinals is the primary objective.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):

   a. Djokovic's age and potential decline: As Djokovic ages, his physical abilities may start to decline, affecting his performance on the court. (Strength: 6/10)
   b. Injuries and health issues: Djokovic has faced various injuries throughout his career, which could impact his performance in the US Open. (Strength: 7/10)
   c. Competition from younger players: The younger generation of tennis players, such as Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Holger Rune, may pose a significant challenge to Djokovic's chances of reaching the semifinals. (Strength: 8/10)
   d. Fatigue and travel: The US Open is a long tournament, and Djokovic may experience fatigue and travel-related issues that could affect his performance. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):

   a. Djokovic's past performances: Djokovic has a strong track record in the US Open, with multiple titles and a high level of consistency. (Strength: 9/10)
   b. His current form: Djokovic has been performing well in recent tournaments, which suggests he is in good form and confident. (Strength: 8/10)
   c. Experience and adaptability: Djokovic has extensive experience in Grand Slam tournaments and has shown his ability to adapt to different surfaces and conditions. (Strength: 8/10)
   d. His dominance on hard courts: Djokovic has a strong record on hard courts, which is the surface used in the US Open. (Strength: 9/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the strength of the reasons for a "no" answer is 26/40 (6+7+8+5), and the strength of the reasons for a "yes" answer is 34/40 (9+8+8+9). This suggests that the reasons for a "yes" answer are slightly stronger.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially predict that Novak Djokovic will reach the semifinals of the US Open 2023 with a probability of 72.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability may be considered slightly overconfident, given the potential risks associated with Djokovic's age, injuries, and competition from younger players. However, his past performances, current form, experience, and dominance on hard courts provide strong reasons for optimism.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 10, 2023, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which starts at 10:00 PST?

This question includes the specific date, time, location, and teams involved, providing a clear understanding of the event being asked about. The question also clarifies that a tie will result in a 'NO' answer, and a game without a winner will result in 'N/A'. Additionally, it highlights the advantages of betting on this market, including quick resolution and subsidies.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- The Atlanta Falcons have a struggling offense, which might impact their ability to score points and win the game (Strength: 6).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a strong defense, particularly in pass coverage, which could limit the Falcons' scoring opportunities (Strength: 8).
- The Falcons have had inconsistent performances throughout the season, which might make it difficult to predict their success in this game (Strength: 5).
- The Buccaneers have a more experienced quarterback, which could give them an edge in terms of leadership and decision-making (Strength: 7).
- The Falcons have struggled with injuries to key players, which could impact their overall performance (Strength: 4).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings from 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
- The Falcons have a strong running game, which could help them control the clock and wear down the Buccaneers' defense (Strength: 8).
- The Buccaneers have been inconsistent on the road, which might make it difficult for them to secure a win (Strength: 6).
- The Falcons have a solid defense, particularly against the run, which could limit the Buccaneers' scoring opportunities (Strength: 9).
- The Falcons have a more favorable schedule in the second half of the season, which could give them momentum heading into this game (Strength: 5).
- The Buccaneers have been dealing with injuries to key players, which could impact their overall performance (Strength: 4).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, it seems that the Buccaneers have a slight edge due to their strong defense and more experienced quarterback. However, the Falcons have a solid running game and a strong defense, which could help them keep the game close. The Buccaneers' inconsistent performances on the road and injuries to key players also give the Falcons a glimmer of hope.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the Falcons winning the game at 35%.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
The initial probability seems relatively low, considering the strengths of the Falcons' running game and defense. However, the Buccaneers' strong defense and more experienced quarterback give them a significant advantage. Additionally, the base rate of the Falcons winning this game is relatively low, given the Buccaneers' overall performance in the season. Considering these factors, the initial probability might be slightly too low.

7. Final prediction:
*0.32*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.32
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will the Carolina Panthers win the game against the Atlanta Falcons at Bank of America Stadium on December 17, 2023, at 5:15 PST? The game will take place in Week 15 of the 2023 NFL season. A game ending in a tie will resolve as "NO," while a game without a clear winner will resolve as "N/A." This question is offered with a resolution time of typically within one hour after the event's conclusion.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
    - The Carolina Panthers have struggled with consistency throughout the season, which might impact their performance in this game. (Strength: 6/10)
    - The Atlanta Falcons have shown improvement in recent games, potentially making them a stronger opponent for the Panthers. (Strength: 7/10)
    - Injuries to key players can significantly affect a team's performance, and if the Panthers have significant injuries, it might impact their chances of winning. (Strength: 8/10)
    - The Panthers might face challenges in adapting to the Falcons' defensive strategy, which could lead to difficulties in scoring points. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
    - The Panthers have a strong home-field advantage at Bank of America Stadium, which could give them an edge in this game. (Strength: 8/10)
    - The Panthers have a solid offense, and if they can maintain their form, they might be able to outscore the Falcons. (Strength: 7/10)
    - The Falcons' recent improvements might be a short-term trend, and the Panthers could capitalize on this by exploiting their weaknesses. (Strength: 6/10)
    - The Panthers have a good chance to exploit the Falcons' defense, which has shown vulnerabilities in previous games. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the Panthers' inconsistency, the Falcons' recent improvements, potential injuries, and home-field advantage, the factors seem to be evenly balanced. However, the Panthers' strong offense and potential to exploit the Falcons' defense give them an edge.

5. Initial probability: 52.5

6. Evaluation of initial probability: The initial probability seems reasonable, given the balanced factors. However, it might be slightly too conservative, as the Panthers' home-field advantage and potential to exploit the Falcons' defense could give them a higher chance of winning.

7. Final prediction: *0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Temu remain the top free iPhone app in the United States by the end of September 2023, considering its current position as the top free app in the App Store on August 27, 2023, and the potential factors that may influence its ranking over the next month?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* New app releases with better features or marketing strategies could attract more users (Strength: 4). As the month progresses, new apps might be released that surpass Temu in terms of features, user experience, or marketing efforts, potentially displacing it from the top spot.
* Changes in user preferences or trends might shift the market (Strength: 3). User preferences can change rapidly, and if a new trend or a shift in user behavior occurs, it could lead to a decline in Temu's popularity.
* Competition from established apps or brands (Strength: 3). Established apps or brands might launch new features or promotions that appeal to users, potentially stealing Temu's market share.
* Technical issues or app updates that affect user experience (Strength: 2). If Temu experiences technical issues or updates that negatively impact user experience, it could lead to a decline in its ranking.
* Seasonal fluctuations in app usage (Strength: 2). App usage can vary depending on the season, and if there are seasonal fluctuations, it could affect Temu's ranking.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

* Temu's current popularity and user base (Strength: 5). Temu's current position as the top free app suggests it has a strong user base and a well-executed strategy, which could help it maintain its ranking.
* Continuous marketing and updates (Strength: 4). Temu's developers might continue to update the app, release new features, and maintain a strong marketing strategy, which could help maintain its user base and ranking.
* User loyalty and retention (Strength: 4). Temu's users might be loyal and retain their interest in the app, which could help maintain its ranking.
* Limited competition in the current market (Strength: 3). The current market might not have many strong competitors in the free app category, making it easier for Temu to maintain its ranking.
* Brand recognition and reputation (Strength: 3). Temu's brand recognition and reputation might be strong enough to maintain its user base and ranking.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both possibilities, I think that Temu's current popularity, continuous marketing, user loyalty, and limited competition are strong factors in its favor. However, the potential for new app releases, changes in user preferences, and technical issues could pose challenges to its ranking. I would rate the likelihood of Temu remaining the top free iPhone app in the United States by the end of September 2023 as moderate to high.

5. Initial probability: 70

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 70 seems reasonable, but it might be slightly overconfident. The factors that could affect Temu's ranking are numerous, and it's difficult to predict the outcome with certainty. I should consider the base rate of apps changing their ranking over time, which is likely to be relatively high. This might make my initial probability too high.

7. Final prediction: *0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will regular Ukrainian forces successfully reach the city limits of Tokmak, a city in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ukraine, by the end of 2023? Considering the current military situation, the capabilities of Ukrainian forces, and the dynamics of the ongoing conflict in the region, what are the chances of Ukrainian forces achieving this objective by December 31, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-10 for strength):
- The ongoing conflict in the region is complex, with multiple parties involved, including Russian forces, separatist groups, and Ukrainian government forces. This complexity might hinder the ability of Ukrainian forces to make significant territorial gains. (Strength: 6)
- Tokmak is a strategic location, and Russian forces may prioritize defending it to maintain control over the surrounding area. (Strength: 7)
- Ukrainian forces have faced setbacks and challenges in their military operations, which might impact their ability to reach the city limits of Tokmak. (Strength: 5)
- The Russian military has a significant advantage in terms of artillery and air power, which could make it difficult for Ukrainian forces to advance. (Strength: 8)
- The Ukrainian military's focus on other areas, such as Bakhmut and Kherson, might divert resources away from the Tokmak front. (Strength: 4)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-10 for strength):
- Ukrainian forces have made significant gains in the region, and their momentum could carry them to the city limits of Tokmak. (Strength: 6)
- The Ukrainian military has received significant support from Western countries, including military aid and training, which could improve their capabilities. (Strength: 7)
- The Russian military has faced challenges in maintaining its supply lines and logistics, which might weaken its ability to defend the area around Tokmak. (Strength: 5)
- The Ukrainian military has demonstrated its ability to adapt and innovate in the face of adversity, which could help them overcome obstacles and reach the city limits of Tokmak. (Strength: 8)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, it seems that the strength of the opposing arguments is relatively balanced. However, the reasons for a no answer have a slightly higher total strength (30) compared to the reasons for a yes answer (25). This suggests that the initial probability might be slightly lower than 50%.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability to be around 40.

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations:
The initial probability seems relatively low, considering the Ukrainian military's recent gains and the challenges faced by the Russian military. However, the complexity of the conflict and the strength of the Russian military in the region might still pose significant obstacles. Considering the base rate of the event, which is difficult to estimate, I would say that the initial probability is not excessively confident but might be on the lower side. However, it's essential to consider that the situation on the ground can change rapidly, and new developments might impact the probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the New England Patriots beat the New York Jets in their Week 18 game on January 5, 2024, at Gillette Stadium, which starts at 10:00 PST? If the game results in a tie, the answer will be "NO". If the game does not have a clear winner (like the Bills-Bengals game in 2022), the answer will be "N/A". 

2. Reasons why the answer might be "no" (with strength rating):

- The New England Patriots have struggled with injuries to key players throughout the season, which could impact their performance. (Strength: 6/10)
- The New York Jets have shown improvement in recent weeks, and their offense might be able to keep up with the Patriots. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Patriots are playing at home, but the Jets have had some success in away games this season. (Strength: 4/10)
- The Patriots' defense might be vulnerable to the Jets' passing attack. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be "yes" (with strength rating):

- The Patriots have a strong home-field advantage at Gillette Stadium, which could give them an edge. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Patriots have a more experienced quarterback in Mac Jones, who has shown improvement throughout the season. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Patriots' defense has been solid this season, which could help them contain the Jets' offense. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Jets have struggled on the road this season, which could impact their performance at Gillette Stadium. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations: 
Considering the reasons above, the Patriots' home-field advantage, quarterback experience, and solid defense give them an edge. However, the Jets' improvement and the Patriots' injury issues are concerns. Overall, the Patriots seem to have a slight advantage, but it's not a clear-cut win.

5. Initial probability: 62

6. Evaluation of confidence and additional considerations: 
The initial probability of 62 seems reasonable, considering the mixed signals from the reasons above. However, it's worth noting that the base rate of the Patriots beating the Jets in this specific game is not available. Additionally, the NFL is known for its unpredictability, so it's possible that other factors could come into play.

7. Final prediction: *0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win their NFL Week 6 game against the New England Patriots on October 15, 2023, at Allegiant Stadium, which is scheduled to start at 13:05 PDT? The outcome of this question will be determined based on the final result of the game, excluding ties or non-decisive outcomes. 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- The Las Vegas Raiders have struggled with injuries to key players in previous seasons, which might impact their performance in this game (Strength: 6/10)
- The New England Patriots have a strong defense and might be able to limit the Raiders' scoring opportunities (Strength: 7/10)
- The Patriots' quarterback, Mac Jones, has shown improvement in recent games, which could lead to a strong performance (Strength: 5/10)
- The Raiders have had inconsistent performances in their past few games, which might affect their chances of winning (Strength: 6/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- The Raiders have a strong offense led by quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, which could lead to a high-scoring game (Strength: 8/10)
- The Raiders have a solid defense that could contain the Patriots' offense (Strength: 7/10)
- The Raiders are playing at home, which might give them an advantage in terms of crowd support and familiarity with the stadium (Strength: 5/10)
- The Patriots have struggled with injuries to key players, which might impact their performance in this game (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Taking into account the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Raiders' home-field advantage, and the recent performances of both teams, I believe that the Raiders have a slight edge in this game. However, the Patriots' strong defense and improving quarterback play make this a competitive matchup.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of the Raiders winning as 62%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability seems to be relatively moderate, taking into account the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. However, I may have underestimated the impact of the Patriots' improving quarterback play and the Raiders' recent inconsistency. I should also consider the base rate of the event, which is that the home team wins around 55-60% of the time in the NFL.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the factors mentioned above, I adjust my initial probability to account for the home-field advantage and the competitive nature of the matchup. I also consider the base rate of the event and the potential for the Raiders to capitalize on their strengths. My final prediction is: *0.58*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.58
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Charlotte FC beat Inter Miami CF in their upcoming MLS match scheduled for October 21, 2023? Given the current date is October 2, 2023, and the match is scheduled to take place within the next 20 days, I will consider various factors such as team performance, recent form, head-to-head records, and any other relevant information available up to the question's close date of October 22, 2023, to make an informed prediction.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- Inter Miami CF has a strong squad with experienced players, which might give them an edge over Charlotte FC (Strength: 6/10)
- Inter Miami CF has a home advantage, which can often lead to better performance and more wins (Strength: 5/10)
- Charlotte FC might struggle with consistency and have a harder time maintaining a strong performance throughout the season (Strength: 4/10)
- Inter Miami CF has a more established coach with more experience in MLS, which might give them an edge in terms of tactics and strategy (Strength: 3/10)
- Charlotte FC might be underdogs in this match, which can affect their team's morale and performance (Strength: 2/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- Charlotte FC has shown improvement in their recent performances and might be on an upward trajectory (Strength: 7/10)
- Charlotte FC has a young and dynamic team with a good balance of experience and youth, which can be an asset in a match against a more experienced team (Strength: 6/10)
- Charlotte FC has a strong home crowd support, which can give them an advantage in terms of energy and motivation (Strength: 5/10)
- Inter Miami CF has struggled with consistency and might be vulnerable to a strong performance from Charlotte FC (Strength: 4/10)
- Charlotte FC's coach has shown adaptability and ability to make tactical changes, which can be beneficial in a match against a strong opponent (Strength: 3/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the above points, it seems that both teams have their strengths and weaknesses. However, Inter Miami CF's experience and home advantage give them a slight edge. On the other hand, Charlotte FC's recent improvement and young dynamic team might make them a formidable opponent. Considering these factors, the match is likely to be competitive, and the outcome is uncertain.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of Charlotte FC beating Inter Miami CF as 45%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
My initial probability of 45% seems relatively moderate and takes into account the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. However, it might be slightly too confident, as there are many factors that can affect the outcome of a single match, such as team morale, weather conditions, and unexpected injuries. The base rate of Charlotte FC beating Inter Miami CF in their previous matches is not available, but it's essential to consider that this is just one match, and the outcome might be influenced by various factors.

7. Final prediction:
*0.40*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.4
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Doug Burgum, the incumbent Governor of North Dakota and potential Republican presidential candidate, make it onto the stage of an RNC (Republican National Committee) sanctioned debate during the Republican primaries? This question resolves to YES if he is invited to and attends the debate, and makes it onto the stage as a debate participant along with other candidates. The question is specific to the time frame between the question's creation date (2023-06-17) and the question's close date (2023-08-24).

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Strength: 8/10**: Doug Burgum has not yet officially announced his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination. Without a formal announcement, it's uncertain if he will be considered a viable candidate by the RNC, potentially excluding him from the debate stage.
- **Strength: 6/10**: The RNC has historically been selective in inviting candidates to debates, often prioritizing those with higher national recognition and polling numbers. Burgum's relatively low national profile might make it challenging for him to meet these criteria.
- **Strength: 4/10**: The Republican primary field is expected to be crowded, with several well-known candidates already announcing their bids. The RNC might focus on featuring more prominent candidates in debates, potentially leaving Burgum on the sidelines.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Strength: 9/10**: As a sitting governor and potential candidate, Burgum has a certain level of name recognition and political experience, which could be enough to secure an invitation to the debate stage.
- **Strength: 7/10**: The RNC has a history of inviting candidates with a strong track record of fundraising and grassroots support. If Burgum is able to build a robust campaign operation, he might meet this criterion and secure a spot in the debates.
- **Strength: 5/10**: The RNC might be willing to include a diverse range of candidates in debates to showcase different perspectives and backgrounds. As a governor from a smaller state, Burgum could potentially be seen as a representative of a different type of candidate.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the factors above, the likelihood of Doug Burgum making it onto the debate stage appears to be influenced by his candidacy status, national recognition, and the RNC's selection criteria. While there are valid reasons to doubt his inclusion, his experience as a governor and potential fundraising abilities might work in his favor.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I estimate the probability of Doug Burgum making it onto the debate stage at around 40%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be too conservative. The RNC's selection process is inherently uncertain, and Burgum's potential strengths as a candidate could still lead to an invitation. However, there are also several factors working against him, which could lead to a lower probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the New York Giants beat the Philadelphia Eagles in their NFL Week 18 game on January 5, 2024, at MetLife Stadium, which starts at 10:00 PST? 

Assuming the question is resolved based on the final score of the game, and not considering any potential tie or other irregularities. 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (with strength ratings):
- The Philadelphia Eagles have historically been a strong team in recent years, with a strong offense and a solid defense. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Eagles have a more experienced and well-established quarterback in Jalen Hurts compared to the Giants' Daniel Jones. (Strength: 7.5/10)
- The Eagles have a more balanced team with a strong running game and a reliable receiving corps. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Giants have struggled with injuries to key players in the past, which could impact their performance in the game. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Eagles have a strong home-field advantage, and playing at MetLife Stadium might not be as beneficial for the Giants. (Strength: 5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (with strength ratings):
- The Giants have shown improvement in their team performance in recent games, with a more balanced offense and a solid defense. (Strength: 7/10)
- Daniel Jones has the potential to make big plays and lead the Giants to an upset victory. (Strength: 6.5/10)
- The Eagles might be looking ahead to the playoffs, which could affect their motivation and focus in the game. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Giants have a strong defensive line that could pressure Jalen Hurts and disrupt the Eagles' offense. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Giants have a good track record of playing well in big games, which could give them an edge in this matchup. (Strength: 6/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, it seems that the Eagles have a slight edge in terms of overall team performance and experience. However, the Giants have shown improvement and have a strong defensive line that could cause problems for the Eagles. The potential for an upset is there, but it's not a clear favorite.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of the Giants beating the Eagles at around 35%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability might be a bit too conservative, given the potential for an upset. However, I'm also considering the Eagles' overall strength and experience, which gives them an edge in this matchup. I'm not taking into account the base rate of the event, as it's a specific game prediction rather than a general probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Carlos Alcaraz play in the 2023 US Open Finals? Given that the 2023 US Open is scheduled to take place from August 28 to September 10, and considering Carlos Alcaraz's current status and performance in tennis tournaments, what is the likelihood that he will participate in the US Open Finals?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1 to 10 for strength of reason, with 1 being the weakest and 10 being the strongest):
- Reason 1: Injury or illness (8/10): Carlos Alcaraz might have suffered an injury or illness that would prevent him from participating in the tournament. 
- Reason 2: Withdrawal due to personal reasons (6/10): Alcaraz might have personal reasons for withdrawing from the tournament, such as family or health issues not related to injury.
- Reason 3: Scheduling conflicts (4/10): Alcaraz might have scheduling conflicts that prevent him from participating in the US Open.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1 to 10 for strength of reason, with 1 being the weakest and 10 being the strongest):
- Reason 1: Current form and ranking (9/10): As the current world number one, Carlos Alcaraz has been in good form and has a strong ranking, increasing his chances of participating in the US Open Finals.
- Reason 2: Past performance (8/10): Alcaraz has a history of performing well in Grand Slam tournaments, including the US Open, which suggests he is likely to participate.
- Reason 3: No public announcements of withdrawal (5/10): There is no public information available that suggests Alcaraz has withdrawn from the tournament.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons provided, the likelihood of Alcaraz participating in the US Open Finals seems higher due to his strong current form and past performance. However, there is a possibility of injury or illness that could prevent him from participating.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Alcaraz playing in the US Open Finals to be around 80.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
Upon further consideration, I realize that the initial probability might be too high due to the potential for injury or illness. Additionally, the base rate of top tennis players withdrawing from tournaments is relatively low, which should be taken into account. A more conservative estimate might be warranted.

7. Final prediction:
*0.7*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.7
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will the Cincinnati Bengals win against the Indianapolis Colts in their Week 14 NFL game taking place at Paycor Stadium on December 10, 2023, at 10:00 PST?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating out of 10):

   a. The Bengals have struggled with consistency in their performance this season, which might impact their ability to secure a win. (Strength: 6/10)
   b. The Colts have shown improvement in their recent games, which could make them a more formidable opponent for the Bengals. (Strength: 7/10)
   c. The Bengals are playing on their home turf, but the Colts have had some success in road games this season. (Strength: 4/10)
   d. Injuries to key players can significantly impact a team's performance; if the Bengals have significant injuries, it might affect their chances of winning. (Strength: 9/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating out of 10):

   a. The Bengals have a strong offense, which could help them outscore the Colts. (Strength: 8/10)
   b. The Bengals have a good home-field advantage at Paycor Stadium, which might give them an edge. (Strength: 6/10)
   c. The Colts' recent improvement might be a short-term trend, and the Bengals could capitalize on this. (Strength: 5/10)
   d. The Bengals have a more experienced coaching staff, which might help them make strategic decisions during the game. (Strength: 4/10)

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, it seems that the Bengals have a slight edge due to their strong offense and home-field advantage. However, the Colts' recent improvement and the Bengals' consistency issues might make the game competitive. The injury factor is a significant concern for the Bengals, but without specific information about the current injury status, it's difficult to assess its impact.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of initial probability: The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident given the uncertainty surrounding the teams' performances and potential injuries. It's also essential to consider the base rate of NFL games, where upsets are common. A more conservative approach might be warranted.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:

Will Real Madrid score more goals than Valencia than Valencia scores against Real Madrid at the end of regular time plus stoppage time on Saturday, November 11, 2023, in their La Liga match?

Market resolution: This market will resolve to YES if, at the end of regular time plus stoppage time, Real Madrid has more goals than Valencia. It will resolve to NO if both teams have an equal number of goals or Valencia has more goals. Extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution.

2. Reasons why the answer might be NO (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Valencia's recent form has been decent, and they might be able to hold their ground against Real Madrid (Strength: 3). 
- Valencia has had some success against Real Madrid in the past, with a few draws and even a win (Strength: 2).
- Real Madrid's defense has been inconsistent this season, which could be exploited by Valencia's attacking players (Strength: 4).
- Valencia has a strong squad with experienced players who can cause problems for Real Madrid (Strength: 4).
- Real Madrid might underestimate Valencia, which could lead to a lack of focus and mistakes (Strength: 2).

3. Reasons why the answer might be YES (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- Real Madrid has a strong squad with many talented players, including Karim Benzema, Vinicius Jr., and Luka Modric (Strength: 5).
- Real Madrid has a good home record in La Liga and typically performs well at the Santiago Bernabeu (Strength: 5).
- Valencia has struggled with consistency this season, which could affect their performance against a strong team like Real Madrid (Strength: 3).
- Real Madrid's manager, Carlo Ancelotti, has a good track record of making tactical decisions that help his team win (Strength: 4).
- Real Madrid has a strong team cohesion and chemistry, which could give them an edge over Valencia (Strength: 4).

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the home advantage of Real Madrid, and the recent form of Valencia, I think Real Madrid has a slight edge in this match. However, Valencia's past successes against Real Madrid and their strong squad cannot be ignored. The key factor will be how well Valencia can contain Real Madrid's attacking players and capitalize on any mistakes made by the home team.

5. Initial probability:
Based on my analysis, I would estimate the probability of Real Madrid scoring more goals than Valencia at the end of regular time plus stoppage time as 62%.

6. Evaluation of confidence and base rate:
My initial probability seems reasonable, but I might be underestimating the potential of Valencia's attack. The base rate of Real Madrid winning or scoring more goals than their opponents in La Liga is around 60-70%. However, this is not directly applicable to this specific match, as it's a home game for Real Madrid. I should also consider the fact that this is a Saturday night match, which might affect the performance of both teams.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje fight at UFC 291 on July 29th, 2023, in Salt Lake City, Utah, go to a decision or a technical decision, given that it will resolve to YES if the fight goes to a decision or a technical decision, N/A if the fight is pulled from the event, or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, or if the fight ends in a DQ, and NO if the fight ends in a KO/TKO, submission, technical submission, retirement, or other stoppage?

Reasons why the answer might be NO (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
1. Both fighters have a history of finishing fights with knockouts or TKOs, with Dustin Poirier having 12 finishes in 26 fights and Justin Gaethje having 11 finishes in 28 fights. (Strength: 8)
2. Gaethje is known for his aggressive fighting style, which often leads to a high pace and a higher likelihood of a stoppage victory. (Strength: 6)
3. Poirier has shown resilience and the ability to push through adversity, but Gaethje's pressure and aggression might be too much for him to handle. (Strength: 5)

Reasons why the answer might be YES (strength rating: 1-10, where 1 is weak and 10 is strong):
1. Both fighters have a history of going the distance, with Poirier having 14 decisions in 26 fights and Gaethje having 17 decisions in 28 fights. (Strength: 9)
2. Poirier is known for his well-rounded skills and ability to adapt to different fighting styles, which could allow him to outmaneuver Gaethje and win a decision. (Strength: 7)
3. Gaethje has shown vulnerabilities in his wrestling and grappling, which Poirier could potentially exploit to control the fight and win a decision. (Strength: 6)

Aggregated considerations:
Both fighters have the potential to win a decision, but Poirier's ability to adapt and Gaethje's vulnerabilities in wrestling and grappling give him a slight advantage. However, Gaethje's aggressive fighting style and history of finishing fights make him a formidable opponent. The likelihood of a decision is moderate, but slightly skewed towards a Poirier victory.

Initial probability: 55

Evaluation:
The initial probability is moderate, considering the fighters' histories and styles. However, it might be too low, given Poirier's ability to adapt and Gaethje's vulnerabilities. The base rate of the event is not particularly relevant in this case, as the question is specific to this fight. The only potential factor that might affect the forecast is the fighters' current training camps and any injuries they may have sustained.

Final prediction: *0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will any of the 21 planned stages of the 2023 Tour de France be cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances such as extreme weather conditions, road blockages, or safety concerns between June 30, 2023, and July 23, 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Tour de France organizers and local authorities are well-prepared to handle various weather conditions and have contingency plans in place. (Strength: 4)
- The 2023 Tour de France has a well-established route and schedule, which has been extensively tested and reviewed to minimize potential risks. (Strength: 3)
- The Tour de France has a large team of experts and staff who closely monitor the weather and road conditions to ensure the event's smooth execution. (Strength: 4)
- The 2023 Tour de France has a significant economic and media impact, making it unlikely that the organizers would cancel a stage without exhausting all possible alternatives. (Strength: 5)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- Extreme weather conditions such as heavy rainfall, heatwaves, or severe storms could potentially force the cancellation of a stage. (Strength: 4)
- Road blockages due to protests, accidents, or other unforeseen events could also lead to stage cancellations. (Strength: 3)
- The Tour de France has faced cancellations in the past due to weather conditions or other factors, so it's not unprecedented. (Strength: 3)
- The 2023 Tour de France route passes through areas prone to extreme weather conditions, such as mountainous regions and coastal areas. (Strength: 4)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the points above, it seems that the likelihood of a stage being cancelled is relatively high due to the potential for extreme weather conditions and road blockages. However, the organizers' preparedness and the event's economic and media impact suggest that they would exhaust all possible alternatives before cancelling a stage.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of a stage being cancelled at 60.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, but it might be slightly overconfident given the complexity of the situation. There are many factors at play, and it's difficult to predict the likelihood of a stage cancellation with certainty. Considering the base rate of stage cancellations in the Tour de France, it's relatively low, which might suggest that the initial probability is too high.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. win the Democratic Primary and be a serious contender for President of the United States in the 2024 election, as suggested by some, and what are the factors that could influence his chances of success? 

    Background: The article from The Hill suggests that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has a strong potential to win the Democratic Primary due to his charisma, connections to the Kennedy family, and the dissatisfaction with the current Democratic Party establishment. However, there are various factors to consider that might impact his chances.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
    a. Lack of experience in politics: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has limited experience in politics, having never held public office before. This lack of experience might hinder his ability to effectively navigate the complexities of the presidency. (Strength: 8/10)
    b. Divisive views on vaccines: As an outspoken critic of vaccines, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. might alienate some voters who prioritize public health and vaccine mandates. This could harm his chances in the general election. (Strength: 7/10)
    c. Competition from more established candidates: The Democratic Party has a strong pool of candidates with more experience and recognition, such as Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg. These candidates might be more appealing to voters and make it difficult for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. to gain traction. (Strength: 9/10)
    d. Financial constraints: Running a presidential campaign is expensive, and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. might not have the same level of funding as more established candidates. This could limit his ability to effectively campaign and reach a wider audience. (Strength: 6/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
    a. Charisma and name recognition: As a member of the Kennedy family, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has a strong name recognition and charisma that could appeal to voters. (Strength: 8/10)
    b. Dissatisfaction with the establishment: The article suggests that some voters are dissatisfied with the current Democratic Party establishment, which could create an opening for an outsider like Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. to capitalize on this sentiment. (Strength: 7/10)
    c. Growing anti-vaccine movement: Despite the potential drawbacks of his views on vaccines, the anti-vaccine movement is growing, and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. might be able to tap into this sentiment and attract a dedicated following. (Strength: 6/10)
    d. Potential to appeal to independent voters: As an outsider, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. might be able to appeal to independent voters who are looking for a fresh perspective and are dissatisfied with the two-party system. (Strength: 7/10)

4. Aggregated considerations: 
Considering the reasons for and against Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.'s chances of winning the Democratic Primary and being a serious contender for President, it seems that the competition from more established candidates (Strength: 9/10) and lack of experience in politics (Strength: 8/10) are significant hurdles for him to overcome. However, his charisma, name recognition, and potential to appeal to independent voters might still give him a chance to succeed.

5. Initial probability: 25

6. Evaluation of initial probability: The initial probability of 25 might be too low, given the potential for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. to capitalize on voter dissatisfaction with the establishment and his charisma. However, the competition from established candidates and lack of experience in politics are significant concerns that need to be taken into account.

7. Final prediction: *0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.35
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the New Orleans Saints win against the Carolina Panthers in their Week 14 game on December 10, 2023, at Caesars Superdome, starting at 10:00 PST? 

This question can be further expanded by considering factors such as the Saints' recent performance, the Panthers' strengths and weaknesses, any injuries to key players, and any other relevant factors that might influence the outcome of the game.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
- The Saints have been inconsistent this season, with several close losses and a few blowout wins. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Panthers have shown improvement in recent weeks, which might give them an edge in this matchup. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Saints' defense has struggled to contain strong running backs this season, and the Panthers have a capable running back. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Saints might be dealing with injuries to key players, which could weaken their chances. (Strength: 4/10)
- The Panthers' quarterback has shown potential, and if he can perform well, it could be a tough game for the Saints. (Strength: 6/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
- The Saints have a strong offense, led by a talented quarterback, which could give them an advantage. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Saints have a solid home-field advantage at Caesars Superdome, which could boost their morale and performance. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Panthers have struggled on the road this season, which might make it difficult for them to win in New Orleans. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Saints have a well-established coach and a strong team culture, which could help them stay focused and motivated. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Saints have a strong running game, which could help them control the tempo of the game and wear down the Panthers' defense. (Strength: 8/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Saints' home-field advantage, and the Panthers' recent improvement, it seems that the Saints have a slight edge in this matchup. However, the Panthers' potential to exploit the Saints' weaknesses and their own recent progress make this a competitive game.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of the Saints winning as 62%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively moderate, considering the competitive nature of the NFL. However, it might be worth considering the base rate of the event, which is around 50% (i.e., a coin flip). This suggests that the initial probability might be on the lower side, but it's still a reasonable estimate given the considerations above.

7. Final prediction:
*0.625*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.625
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Orlando Magic win the game against the Houston Rockets on October 25, 2023, at 4:00pm PDT? Given that the game will take place at 4:00pm PDT on October 25, 2023, I will track the result of the game, including any potential rescheduled date, and any subsequent replayed game due to a mistake declared by the NBA more than one hour after the initial game's conclusion. I will resolve this market quickly, typically within an hour of the event ending, and may create new markets for the replayed game if necessary. I will also consider any unforeseen circumstances and make decisions based on the spirit of the question, avoiding technicalities.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The Orlando Magic have a history of struggling against the Houston Rockets, particularly in recent years. (Strength: 4)
- The Rockets have a strong roster with talented players who can dominate the Magic. (Strength: 4)
- The Magic are still in the early stages of their season, and it may take them some time to find their rhythm. (Strength: 3)
- The Rockets have a more experienced coach and may have an advantage in terms of team cohesion. (Strength: 3)
- The Magic have a tough schedule ahead of them, and this game may be a challenging start to their season. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):

- The Magic have a young and talented core of players who can potentially outscore the Rockets. (Strength: 4)
- The Rockets have been struggling with injuries and may not be at full strength for this game. (Strength: 4)
- The Magic have a strong home-court advantage, which could give them an edge in this game. (Strength: 3)
- The Rockets have a new coach and may be adjusting to their system, which could affect their performance. (Strength: 3)
- The Magic have a strong defense that could limit the Rockets' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, I would say that the Magic's young core and potential home-court advantage give them a slight edge, but the Rockets' strong roster and experience could still make them a formidable opponent. The Magic's history against the Rockets and the Rockets' potential injuries also create uncertainty. Overall, I would lean slightly towards the Magic winning, but with a moderate level of confidence.

5. Initial probability:
60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability of 60 seems moderate, but it may be too confident given the uncertainty surrounding the teams and the game. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of the Magic winning any given game), I would expect the probability to be lower, around 40-50%. However, the specific factors mentioned earlier, such as the Magic's young core and potential home-court advantage, could increase the probability.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Jordi Alba start in the US Open Cup final for Barcelona, given the information that the question is about the US Open Cup final and Jordi Alba is a professional soccer player, likely referring to the 2023-24 season. The question does not provide specific information about the team Jordi Alba plays for in the US Open Cup, but it is reasonable to assume it is related to his current team, Barcelona. The resolution criteria are not applicable, implying that the question is about whether Jordi Alba will start in the game or not, rather than a specific outcome like winning or losing.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- Reason 1: Jordi Alba's injury status: Jordi Alba might be injured or not fully fit, which could prevent him from starting in the US Open Cup final. (Strength: 60)
- Reason 2: Managerial decision: The coach of Barcelona might decide to rest Jordi Alba for the US Open Cup final to conserve energy for more important competitions, like La Liga or the Champions League. (Strength: 40)
- Reason 3: Competition from other players: Jordi Alba might face competition from other players in his position, and the coach might choose to start one of them instead. (Strength: 30)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- Reason 1: Jordi Alba's importance to the team: Jordi Alba is an important player for Barcelona, and the coach might decide to start him in the US Open Cup final to ensure a strong performance. (Strength: 80)
- Reason 2: Lack of information about other players' status: Without information about the injury status or form of other players in Jordi Alba's position, it is reasonable to assume that he will start in the US Open Cup final. (Strength: 70)
- Reason 3: Jordi Alba's experience in the competition: Jordi Alba has experience playing in the US Open Cup, and the coach might rely on his experience and skill to start him in the final. (Strength: 50)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Based on the reasons provided, it seems that Jordi Alba starting in the US Open Cup final is more likely than not. The reasons for a "yes" are stronger than the reasons for a "no." However, there is still a possibility that Jordi Alba might not start due to injury or managerial decisions.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of Jordi Alba starting in the US Open Cup final to be around 70.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 70 seems reasonable, but it might be too confident. There are many factors that could affect Jordi Alba's starting status, and the lack of information about other players' status and the coach's decisions makes it difficult to estimate the probability accurately. Additionally, the base rate of players starting in the US Open Cup final is not available, which might affect the forecast.

7. Final prediction:
*0.6*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the game against the Green Bay Packers at Acrisure Stadium on November 12, 2023, at 10:00 PST? This question is based on the information that the game will take place at Acrisure Stadium at 10:00 PST on November 12, 2023. A game ending in a tie will resolve to "NO," and a game without a winner will resolve to "N/A." The Steelers' chances of winning can be influenced by various factors, including their performance in previous games, the Packers' performance, and any potential injuries or suspensions affecting the teams.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength of each reason):

* The Packers have a strong offense led by quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has a history of performing well against top defenses. (Strength: 7/10)
* The Steelers have struggled with injuries to key players, including their star wide receiver, which could impact their ability to score points. (Strength: 6/10)
* The Packers have a strong home-field advantage, which could give them an edge in the game. (Strength: 5/10)
* The Steelers have a tough schedule leading up to the game, which could leave them fatigued and less prepared for the matchup. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength of each reason):

* The Steelers have a strong defense that has been able to contain top offenses in previous games. (Strength: 8/10)
* The Packers have struggled with injuries to their defense, which could make it easier for the Steelers to score points. (Strength: 7/10)
* The Steelers have a solid running game, which could help them control the clock and limit the Packers' opportunities. (Strength: 6/10)
* The Steelers have a good track record of performing well in big games, which could give them an edge in this matchup. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, I believe that the Steelers have a slight advantage due to their strong defense and the Packers' defensive injuries. However, the Packers' offense, led by Aaron Rodgers, is a significant threat, and their home-field advantage could give them an edge. The Steelers' injuries and tough schedule leading up to the game are also concerns. Overall, I think the Steelers have a 55% chance of winning the game.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
My initial probability seems relatively confident, but considering the uncertainty of football games, it might be too high. I should also consider the base rate of the Steelers winning games, which is around 50%. Additionally, I should consider the possibility of unexpected events, such as a major injury to a key player or an unexpected coaching decision, which could significantly impact the outcome of the game.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the New Orleans Saints win the game against the Atlanta Falcons at Caesars Superdome on January 5, 2024, at 10:00 PST? Given that a game ending in a tie resolves to "NO" and a game without a clear winner (like the Bills-Bengals game in 2022) resolves to "N/A", what is the likelihood that the Saints will emerge victorious? I resolve markets quickly, typically within an hour of the event ending, and occasionally subsidize them. Any edge cases not considered will be resolved using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strongest to weakest):
- The Saints have a relatively tough schedule and injuries could impact their performance (Strength: 8/10). 
- The Falcons have shown improvement in recent games, which could give them an edge over the Saints (Strength: 6/10).
- The Saints have struggled with consistency in their performance throughout the season (Strength: 5/10).
- The Falcons have a strong defense that could limit the Saints' scoring (Strength: 4/10).

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strongest to weakest):
- The Saints have a strong home-field advantage at Caesars Superdome (Strength: 9/10).
- The Saints have a more experienced quarterback, which could give them an edge over the Falcons (Strength: 8/10).
- The Saints have shown the ability to perform well under pressure in critical games (Strength: 7/10).
- The Falcons have struggled with consistency in their performance throughout the season (Strength: 5/10).

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Saints have a strong home-field advantage, a more experienced quarterback, and have shown the ability to perform well under pressure. However, they also have a tough schedule, injuries could impact their performance, and the Falcons have shown improvement and a strong defense. The Falcons' inconsistency and the Saints' struggles with consistency also play a role.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of the Saints winning at 62%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. However, it might be slightly biased towards the Saints due to their home-field advantage and more experienced quarterback. Additionally, the base rate of the event (i.e., the Saints winning a game) should be considered. Assuming a typical NFL team wins around 50% of their games, the Saints' home-field advantage and other factors might push their win rate to around 55-60%. Therefore, the initial probability might be slightly too low.

7. Final prediction:
*0.63*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.63
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will the Green Bay Packers win their Monday Night Football (MNF) game against the New York Giants on December 11, 2023, given the current date of November 28, 2023, and the resolution criteria of not being applicable/available for this question? This question will be resolved based on the game day score, and the market will close at 9:00 PM Pacific Time, irrespective of when the game ends.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:

* Reason 1: The Green Bay Packers have had inconsistent performances this season, which may affect their ability to secure a win against the New York Giants. Strength: 6/10
* Reason 2: The New York Giants have shown resilience and have been able to pull off close wins this season. This could make it challenging for the Packers to secure a victory. Strength: 7/10
* Reason 3: The Packers may struggle with injuries or key player absences, which could impact their performance and chances of winning. Strength: 5/10
* Reason 4: The Monday Night Football games often have high stakes and pressure, which can affect team performance. Strength: 4/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:

* Reason 1: The Green Bay Packers have a strong home-field advantage, which could give them an edge in their games at Lambeau Field. Strength: 8/10
* Reason 2: The Packers have a solid offense and a good quarterback, which could help them secure a win against the Giants. Strength: 9/10
* Reason 3: The Packers have shown the ability to adapt and adjust their strategy to suit their opponents, which could be beneficial against the Giants. Strength: 6/10
* Reason 4: The Packers have a strong team defense, which could help them contain the Giants' offense and secure a win. Strength: 8/10

4. Aggregated considerations: Based on the reasons provided, the Packers have a slight advantage due to their strong home-field advantage, solid offense, and good team defense. However, the Giants' resilience and the Packers' inconsistent performances this season are concerns that need to be considered.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation of the initial probability: The initial probability of 60% seems reasonable, but it might be too high considering the Giants' resilience and the Packers' inconsistent performances. It's also essential to consider the base rate of NFL games, which is around 50% chance of a win for any team.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: Will Apple's stock price close above $200 per share on or before December 30, 2023, given the current date of October 11, 2023? This question assumes that we are looking at the historical closing price of Apple's stock on the specified date.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated 1-5 for strength, 5 being the strongest):

   - The stock market is known for its volatility, and Apple's stock price can fluctuate significantly due to various market and economic factors. (Strength: 4)
   - Apple's stock price has been affected by various events such as supply chain disruptions, global economic downturns, and regulatory changes. (Strength: 4)
   - Historically, Apple's stock price has experienced periods of decline, and it may not be able to sustain a rise above $200. (Strength: 3)
   - The stock market may experience a downturn before the end of 2023, pulling Apple's stock price down. (Strength: 3)
   - Apple's competitors, such as Samsung and Google, may release products that negatively impact Apple's sales and stock price. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated 1-5 for strength, 5 being the strongest):

   - Apple has a strong brand and loyal customer base, which can drive sales and stock price growth. (Strength: 5)
   - Apple has a history of releasing innovative products that can drive sales and increase stock price. (Strength: 5)
   - The company has a strong financial position, with a large cash reserve and a history of generating significant profits. (Strength: 4)
   - The global demand for technology products, particularly smartphones and laptops, is likely to remain strong in the long term. (Strength: 4)
   - Apple has a strong track record of delivering positive earnings surprises, which can boost its stock price. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations: Considering the reasons above, it seems that Apple's strong brand, financial position, and innovative products provide a solid foundation for its stock price to grow. However, the stock market's volatility and potential global economic downturns pose significant risks. Overall, the balance of factors suggests a moderate likelihood of Apple's stock price closing above $200 by the end of 2023.

5. Initial probability: 60

6. Evaluation: The initial probability of 60 seems relatively moderate, considering the potential risks and benefits. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of Apple's stock price reaching $200, which is relatively high compared to its historical closing prices. Additionally, the time frame of a few months may be too short for such a significant price increase.

7. Final prediction: *0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Cincinnati Bengals beat the Cleveland Browns in their NFL Week 18 game on January 5, 2024, at Paycor Stadium, which starts at 10:00 PST?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Bengals might struggle with injuries to key players, which could significantly impact their performance. (Strength: 4)
- The Browns have a strong defense that could limit the Bengals' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 4)
- The Bengals might have a tough time containing the Browns' offense, allowing them to score more points than the Bengals. (Strength: 3)
- The Bengals' inconsistent performance throughout the season could lead to a subpar showing in this game. (Strength: 3)
- The Browns have a history of performing well against the Bengals in recent years. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated on a scale of 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Bengals have a strong offense that could outscore the Browns. (Strength: 5)
- The Bengals have a good chance of containing the Browns' offense, limiting their scoring opportunities. (Strength: 4)
- The Bengals have been improving throughout the season and could carry this momentum into the game. (Strength: 3)
- The Browns might struggle with injuries to key players, which could impact their performance. (Strength: 3)
- The Bengals have a strong home-field advantage at Paycor Stadium. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering both the reasons for and against the Bengals beating the Browns, it seems that the strengths of the Bengals' offense and their home-field advantage are significant factors in their favor. However, the Browns' strong defense and the Bengals' inconsistency throughout the season are potential roadblocks. The strengths of the Browns' offense and the Bengals' potential injuries also need to be considered.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would initially predict that the Bengals will beat the Browns with a probability of 55.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 55 seems to be a reasonable estimate, but it might be on the lower side considering the Bengals' strong offense and home-field advantage. However, the Browns' defense and the Bengals' inconsistency throughout the season could still impact the outcome. Additionally, the base rate of the Bengals beating the Browns in this specific game is not readily available, so this should be considered when evaluating the confidence in the prediction.

7. Final prediction:
*0.62*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.62
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Buffalo Bills win the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on October 8, 2023, at 06:30 PDT? Given that the question will resolve to "NO" if the game ends in a tie and "N/A" if the game does not have a winner, what is the likelihood that the Bills will emerge victorious?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength of each reason: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Bills have had inconsistent performances in the past few games, which might affect their confidence and momentum. (Strength: 3)
- Jacksonville has a strong defense, and their pass rush might be able to pressure the Bills' quarterback Josh Allen. (Strength: 4)
- The Bills have struggled with injuries to key players in the past, and it's possible that some of their key players might be injured going into this game. (Strength: 3)
- The Jaguars have been improving their team this season, and their offense might be able to keep up with the Bills. (Strength: 2)
- The Bills might struggle with the change of venue, as they are not familiar with playing at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength of each reason: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Bills have a strong offense, led by Josh Allen, and they have been able to score points consistently this season. (Strength: 5)
- The Bills have a solid defense that has been able to hold opponents to low scores. (Strength: 4)
- The Jaguars have struggled with consistency in their offense, which might make it difficult for them to keep up with the Bills. (Strength: 3)
- The Bills have a strong home-field advantage, but playing at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium might not be as big of a disadvantage as some think, given the Bills' experience playing in different environments. (Strength: 2)
- The Bills have a strong coaching staff, and they might be able to adapt to the Jaguars' strengths and weaknesses. (Strength: 2)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, it seems that the Bills have a slight advantage, but the Jaguars are not to be underestimated. The Bills' inconsistent performances, injuries, and unfamiliarity with the venue might work against them, while their strong offense, solid defense, and coaching staff might give them an edge. However, the Jaguars' improving team and strong defense make them a formidable opponent.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of the Bills winning as 62.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The calculated probability seems reasonable, given the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. However, it might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the Bills' inconsistent performances and the Jaguars' improving team. Additionally, the base rate of the Bills winning games is not provided, which might affect the forecast.

7. Final prediction:
*0.60*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.6
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Houston Texans win against the Denver Broncos in their Week 13 game at NRG Stadium on December 3, 2023, at 1:05 PM PST?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- The Denver Broncos have a strong defense, which could limit the Texans' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Broncos have a more experienced quarterback in Russell Wilson, who could exploit the Texans' secondary. (Strength: 5/10)
- The Texans have struggled with consistency this season, and their performance might suffer due to fatigue or mental lapses. (Strength: 4/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- The Texans have been improving their offense with the addition of new players and coaching adjustments. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Broncos have been inconsistent on offense, and the Texans' defense could capitalize on their mistakes. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Texans have a home-field advantage at NRG Stadium, which could boost their energy and motivation. (Strength: 5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Denver Broncos' strong defense and experienced quarterback are significant concerns for the Texans. However, the Texans' improving offense and the Broncos' inconsistency on offense could give them an edge. Additionally, the home-field advantage at NRG Stadium might help the Texans. Considering these factors, the Texans seem to have a slight advantage.

5. Initial probability:
60

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60 seems reasonable, as it reflects the relatively balanced strengths and weaknesses of both teams. However, it might be too confident, given the unpredictability of football games. There are many factors that can influence the outcome, and a more conservative approach might be warranted.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA game against the Atlanta Hawks on October 25, 2023, at 4:00pm PDT? This question will resolve to 'yes' if the Charlotte Hornets emerge victorious, and 'no' if they do not. If the game does not have a declared winner, the resolution will be 'N/A'. In case the game is rescheduled, this market will track the result of the rescheduled game. If a winner is declared but more than an hour later, the NBA orders some amount of the game time to be replayed due to a mistake, a new market will be created to track the result of the replayed game. This market is an experiment to test the demand for NBA markets, and it might be subsidized. 

Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
1. The Charlotte Hornets had a mediocre offseason, and their roster changes might not be enough to significantly improve their performance. (Strength: 3)
2. The Atlanta Hawks have a strong team with a good balance of offense and defense, which could give them an advantage over the Hornets. (Strength: 4)
3. The Hornets have struggled with injuries in the past, and it's possible that key players might be injured during the game. (Strength: 2)
4. The Hawks have a strong home-court advantage, and playing at home might give them an edge. (Strength: 3)
5. The Hornets have a young team and might not have the experience to handle a tough opponent like the Hawks. (Strength: 2)

Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1-5, where 5 is the strongest):
1. The Hornets have a talented young core, including LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges, who could lead the team to a win. (Strength: 4)
2. The Hawks have some key players who might be injured or struggling with consistency, which could give the Hornets an advantage. (Strength: 3)
3. The Hornets have a strong coach in Steve Clifford, who has a proven track record of getting the most out of his players. (Strength: 2)
4. The Hawks have been inconsistent in the past, and it's possible that they might struggle to find their rhythm. (Strength: 3)
5. The Hornets have a strong defensive team, which could help them contain the Hawks' offense. (Strength: 2)

Aggregated considerations:
The reasons for a 'yes' answer seem to outweigh the reasons for a 'no' answer, but the strength of the reasons is relatively balanced. The Hornets have a talented young core, a strong coach, and a good defense, which could give them an advantage. However, the Hawks have a strong team with a good balance of offense and defense, and they have a home-court advantage.

Initial probability: 55

Evaluation:
The initial probability seems to be moderately confident, but it might be too high considering the strength of the Hawks' team. The base rate of the event is not available, but it's likely that the home team wins more often than not. This might affect the forecast, making it more likely that the Hawks win.

Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Indiana Pacers win the game against the Washington Wizards on October 25, 2023, at 4:00pm PDT? This question is an experiment to gauge the performance of the Pacers and the Wizards in their upcoming match. The market will resolve quickly, typically within an hour of the event ending, and may be subsidized. 

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Injuries and Player Availability** (Strength: 60%) - The Pacers or Wizards might have key players injured or unavailable, affecting their performance.
- **Reason 2: Recent Performance** (Strength: 40%) - The Wizards might have shown improvement in their preseason or recent friendly matches, making them a stronger opponent than expected.
- **Reason 3: Coaching Strategy** (Strength: 30%) - The coaches of both teams might employ unorthodox strategies that hinder the Pacers' chances of winning.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Home Court Advantage** (Strength: 70%) - The Pacers might gain an advantage from playing at home, which can boost their morale and performance.
- **Reason 2: Team Chemistry** (Strength: 50%) - The Pacers might have a stronger team chemistry, which can lead to better communication and coordination on the court.
- **Reason 3: Preseason Preparation** (Strength: 40%) - The Pacers might have prepared well in the preseason, giving them an edge over the Wizards.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the Pacers have a slight advantage due to their home court and potential team chemistry. However, the Wizards' recent performance and coaching strategy could still pose a threat.

5. Initial probability:
Given the aggregated considerations, I would initially estimate the probability of the Pacers winning as 55%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively moderate, considering the Pacers' home court advantage and team chemistry. However, the Wizards' recent performance and coaching strategy might still affect the outcome. A more cautious approach might be warranted, considering the uncertainties involved.

7. Final prediction:
*0.55*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.55
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Miami Dolphins win against the Dallas Cowboys in their Week 16 game scheduled to take place at Hard Rock Stadium on December 24, 2023, at 1:25 PM PST? This question is specific to the outcome of a single game and is not affected by any tie or other scenarios that might prevent a winner from being determined. Given the information provided, I will attempt to provide a well-informed prediction based on my knowledge of the teams, their past performances, and other relevant factors.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The Dallas Cowboys have a strong offense and a well-established team with a high-powered offense, which could give them an advantage over the Dolphins. (Strength: 4)
- The Dolphins have struggled with consistency throughout the season, which might affect their performance in this game. (Strength: 3)
- The Cowboys have a strong home record, and playing at Hard Rock Stadium could give them an edge. (Strength: 3)
- The Dolphins' defense has been inconsistent, which could be exploited by the Cowboys' offense. (Strength: 3)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength rating: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):

- The Dolphins have shown improvement in their performance over the past few games, which might indicate a growing confidence and cohesion within the team. (Strength: 4)
- The Cowboys have struggled with injuries to key players, which could impact their performance in this game. (Strength: 4)
- The Dolphins have a strong home record, and playing at Hard Rock Stadium could give them an edge. (Strength: 3)
- The Dolphins' offense has shown the ability to score points, which could be enough to outdo the Cowboys. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, I believe that the game will be closely contested. The Cowboys' strong offense and home record are significant advantages, but the Dolphins' recent improvement and the Cowboys' injury concerns could level the playing field. I will need to weight these factors to determine a probability.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I estimate the probability of the Dolphins winning against the Cowboys to be around 35%.

6. Evaluation of confidence and base rate:
My initial probability seems relatively low, considering the Dolphins' recent improvement and the Cowboys' injury concerns. However, I need to consider the base rate of NFL games, which is typically around 50% for the home team winning. I also need to consider that my initial probability is based on a limited analysis, and there may be other factors that could influence the outcome.

7. Final prediction:
Given the considerations above, I will adjust my initial probability to a more conservative estimate, taking into account the base rate and the complexity of the game. My final prediction is: *0.42*.
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Given the context of Game 3 in the NBA finals, which team will score the most points in the fourth quarter? Considering the available information, we need to analyze the teams' past performances, player statistics, and any other relevant factors that might influence the outcome of the game. The information provided includes the following markets:
- 1st quarter score
- 2nd quarter score
- 3rd quarter score
- 4th quarter score
- Kevin Love playing more than 15 minutes
- Jokic having more than 8 assists
We will use this information to make an informed prediction about which team will score the most points in the fourth quarter.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (NO = Miami):

- **Reason 1: Miami's strong defense**: Miami has a strong defensive unit that has consistently performed well throughout the playoffs. They might be able to limit Denver's scoring opportunities in the fourth quarter, making it difficult for them to outscore Miami.
    Strength: 6/10
- **Reason 2: Miami's balanced offense**: Miami has a well-rounded offense with multiple players who can contribute to scoring. This balance might allow them to keep up with or even surpass Denver's scoring in the fourth quarter.
    Strength: 5/10
- **Reason 3: Denver's inconsistent fourth-quarter performances**: Denver has had some inconsistent performances in the fourth quarter throughout the playoffs, which might indicate that they struggle to maintain their momentum and scoring pace.
    Strength: 4/10

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (YES = Denver):

- **Reason 1: Jokic's dominant play**: Nikola Jokic is an exceptional player who can take over games and lead his team to victories. If he has more than 8 assists, it's likely that he'll be a key factor in Denver's scoring in the fourth quarter.
    Strength: 9/10
- **Reason 2: Denver's scoring ability**: Denver has a potent offense with multiple scoring threats, including Jokic, Jamal Murray, and others. They have the capability to outscore Miami in the fourth quarter.
    Strength: 8/10
- **Reason 3: Home-court advantage**: Denver is playing at home, which might give them an advantage in terms of crowd energy and familiarity with the court.
    Strength: 5/10

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the most significant factors in favor of Denver scoring the most points in the fourth quarter are Jokic's dominant play and Denver's scoring ability. However, Miami's strong defense and balanced offense are potential counterarguments. Given the available information, the initial prediction leans towards Denver.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the probability of Denver scoring the most points in the fourth quarter to be around 70%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability of 70% seems reasonable, but it might be slightly too confident. The reasons against Denver, such as Miami's strong defense and inconsistent fourth-quarter performances, should not be entirely dismissed. Additionally, the base rate of the event is not explicitly provided, but it's essential to consider that the fourth quarter is often a crucial period in basketball games, and many factors can influence the outcome.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the New York Jets win the game against the Houston Texans on December 10, 2023, at MetLife Stadium, which is scheduled to start at 10:00 PST?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from strongest to weakest):

- The New York Jets have struggled with consistency throughout the season, and their performance might not be strong enough to secure a win against the Texans. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Jets' defense has shown vulnerabilities in recent games, which could allow the Texans to score and potentially win the game. (Strength: 7.5/10)
- The Texans might have a slight advantage in terms of team morale and momentum, which could impact the outcome of the game. (Strength: 6.5/10)
- The Jets might face injuries or key player absences that could affect their performance and chances of winning. (Strength: 6/10)
- The Texans' offense might be able to capitalize on the Jets' weaknesses and secure a win. (Strength: 5.5/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from strongest to weakest):

- The Jets have shown improvement in their offense in recent games, which could give them an edge over the Texans. (Strength: 8.5/10)
- The Jets' defense has the potential to contain the Texans' offense and secure a win. (Strength: 8/10)
- The Texans might be struggling with injuries or key player absences, which could impact their performance and give the Jets an advantage. (Strength: 7.5/10)
- The Jets have a strong home-field advantage at MetLife Stadium, which could boost their chances of winning. (Strength: 7/10)
- The Jets' coach and players might have a better game plan to exploit the Texans' weaknesses and secure a win. (Strength: 6.5/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Taking into account the reasons provided above, the Jets' strengths and weaknesses, and their past performances, it seems that the game is relatively evenly matched. However, the Jets' recent improvement in offense and their home-field advantage might give them a slight edge over the Texans.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the aggregated considerations, I would estimate the initial probability of the Jets winning the game as 55%.

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 55% seems reasonable, considering the relatively even matchup and the various factors that could influence the outcome of the game. However, it's essential to consider the base rate of the event, which is a win for the Jets in this specific matchup. The Jets have not been a strong team this season, and their chances of winning might be lower than average.

7. Final prediction:
Considering the initial probability and the base rate of the event, I would adjust the probability to 48%. This takes into account the Jets' overall performance and the relatively even matchup, but also acknowledges the potential for the Texans to capitalize on the Jets' weaknesses.

*0.48*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.48
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the National Basketball Association (NBA) game against the Brooklyn Nets on October 30, 2023, at 4:00 pm PDT? The game will take place at a neutral venue, and the outcome of the game will determine the winner. If the game does not have a winner, the result will be considered N/A. In the event of a game reschedule, the market will track the result of the rescheduled game. If a winner is declared and more than one hour later, the NBA orders some amount of the game time to be replayed due to a mistake, a new market will be created to track the result of the replayed game. I will resolve this market quickly, typically within an hour of the event ending, and may create markets for every game, occasionally subsidizing them.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (strength of each reason in parentheses):

- The Charlotte Hornets have not performed well in their recent games, which may indicate a lack of team cohesion and strategy. (Medium)
- The Brooklyn Nets have a strong roster with experienced players, including Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, which could give them an advantage over the Hornets. (High)
- The Hornets have struggled with injuries in the past, and it's possible that key players may be missing from the lineup on October 30. (Medium)
- The Nets have a more established coach and a stronger team culture, which could help them perform better in high-pressure situations. (Medium)
- The Hornets have a tough schedule this season, with many difficult matchups against strong teams, which could affect their performance in the game. (Low)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (strength of each reason in parentheses):

- The Hornets have made significant offseason changes, including adding new players and coaches, which could improve their team dynamics and performance. (Medium)
- The Nets have struggled with consistency in the past, and their strong players may not always perform well together. (Medium)
- The Hornets have a young and energetic team, which could give them an advantage in terms of speed and agility. (Low)
- The Nets may be experiencing fatigue from their previous games, which could affect their performance in the game. (Low)
- The Hornets have a strong home crowd, and playing at a neutral venue could give them an advantage in terms of fan support. (Low)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Hornets' recent performance, and the Nets' roster and coaching, I would say that the Nets have a slight advantage in this matchup. However, the Hornets have made significant changes to their team, which could improve their performance. The Nets' consistency and experience may give them an edge, but the Hornets' youth and energy could make them a formidable opponent.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation of confidence:
My initial probability of 40 seems relatively low, considering the strengths of both teams. However, I am considering the Hornets' recent performance and the Nets' consistency. I may be underestimating the Hornets' potential improvement with their new roster and coaching. I would like to see more information about the teams' past performances and current lineups to make a more informed decision.

7. Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 0
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Indianapolis Colts in their Week 6 game scheduled to take place at EverBank Stadium on October 15, 2023, at 10:00 PDT?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have a relatively weak defense, which might struggle to contain the Colts' offense. (Strength: 3)
- The Colts have a strong passing game, and if their quarterback can maintain a high level of performance, it might be challenging for the Jaguars to keep up. (Strength: 4)
- The Jaguars' offense has been inconsistent this season, and if they fail to score enough points, it could lead to a loss. (Strength: 3)
- The Colts have a slightly better record this season, which might indicate a slight advantage in terms of team performance. (Strength: 2)
- The Jaguars have struggled on the road this season, and playing at home might not be enough to give them an edge. (Strength: 2)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (Strength: 1-5, where 1 is weak and 5 is strong):
- The Jaguars have a strong running game, which could help them control the clock and limit the Colts' scoring opportunities. (Strength: 4)
- The Jaguars' defense has shown improvement in recent games, and they might be able to contain the Colts' offense. (Strength: 4)
- The Colts have struggled on the road this season, which could give the Jaguars an advantage. (Strength: 3)
- The Jaguars have a strong pass rush, which could disrupt the Colts' passing game and create turnovers. (Strength: 4)
- The Jaguars have been playing well at home this season, and their fans' energy might give them an edge. (Strength: 3)

4. Aggregated considerations:
The Jaguars have a strong running game and pass rush, which could help them control the game and limit the Colts' scoring opportunities. However, the Colts have a strong passing game and a slightly better record this season, which could give them an advantage. The Jaguars' defense has shown improvement, but it's unclear if it will be enough to contain the Colts' offense.

5. Initial probability: 55

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability seems reasonable, but it might be too high considering the Colts' strong passing game and slightly better record. Additionally, the Jaguars' inconsistent offense and struggling defense on the road are concerns. The base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of the Jaguars beating the Colts) is difficult to estimate, but it's likely lower than 50% given the Colts' recent performance.

7. Final prediction: *0.45*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.45
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will the S&P 500 close at or above 4193.80 on 2023-11-30? Considering the historical data from January to October 2023, where the S&P 500 closed at 4076.60, 3970.15, 4109.31, 4169.48, 4179.83, 4450.38, 4588.96, 4507.66, 4288.05, and 4193.80, what are the chances that the S&P 500 will continue its upward trend and close at or above 4193.80 on 2023-11-30, given the overall trend and previous question answers indicating an increase in the S&P 500 for Q4 2023 and the entire year 2023?

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (rated from 1 to 5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

* The S&P 500 has already had a significant increase from 3970.15 in October to 4193.80 in the same month, which might indicate a potential correction or a decrease in the near future. (Strength: 3)
* The historical data shows a decrease from 4588.96 in August to 4193.80 in October, which might suggest a downward trend in the near future. (Strength: 4)
* The market can be unpredictable, and various global economic factors, such as inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical tensions, might cause a decrease in the S&P 500. (Strength: 2)
* The S&P 500 has been on an upward trend, but it's possible that the market has overcorrected and is due for a pullback. (Strength: 3)
* The question's resolution criteria are not applicable/available, which might indicate a lack of clear information to make an accurate prediction. (Strength: 1)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (rated from 1 to 5, where 5 is the strongest reason):

* The overall trend for Q4 2023 and the entire year 2023 indicates an increase in the S&P 500, which might continue into November. (Strength: 5)
* The S&P 500 has shown resilience and ability to recover from previous decreases, which might suggest a continued upward trend. (Strength: 4)
* The historical data shows that the S&P 500 has closed above 4193.80 in the past, which might indicate a potential for it to do so again. (Strength: 3)
* The market has been influenced by various economic factors, but the overall trend has been upward, which might continue into November. (Strength: 2)
* The question's background information suggests a positive outlook for the S&P 500, which might indicate a continued increase. (Strength: 1)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons for both a yes and no answer, it seems that the overall trend and previous question answers suggest a continued increase in the S&P 500. However, the historical data and potential for a correction or pullback might indicate a lower probability of the S&P 500 closing at or above 4193.80 on 2023-11-30.

5. Initial probability:
Given the considerations, I would estimate the probability of the S&P 500 closing at or above 4193.80 on 2023-11-30 to be around 60%.

6. Evaluation of initial probability:
The initial probability of 60% might be considered not confident enough, as it does not fully account for the overall trend and previous question answers indicating an increase in the S&P 500. However, it also does not fully consider the potential for a correction or pullback. The base rate of the event is not directly applicable in this case, as the question is specific to a particular date and time.

7. Final prediction:
*0.65*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.65
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question: 
Will the closing price of Bitcoin on CoinMarketCap hit or exceed $35,000.00 on or before January 1, 2024, considering the historical price data available on CoinMarketCap until the question's close date (October 24, 2023)? The resolution criteria is based on the price hitting $35,000.00 and then potentially dropping back down, and the answer will be considered 'yes' even if this occurs.

2. Reasons why the answer might be no (and their strength):
   a. The historical volatility of Bitcoin's price can lead to significant fluctuations, and a drop in price could prevent it from reaching $35,000.00 by the deadline. (Strength: 6/10)
   b. Regulatory changes or announcements from governments and financial institutions might negatively impact the price of Bitcoin, making it less likely to reach the target. (Strength: 5/10)
   c. The overall market sentiment and investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market could be a major factor, and a downturn in the market might prevent the price from reaching $35,000.00. (Strength: 7/10)
   d. The current economic climate, including inflation, interest rates, and global economic conditions, might not be favorable for a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin. (Strength: 8/10)

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes (and their strength):
   a. The increasing adoption of cryptocurrencies and the growing interest in digital assets could lead to an increase in the price of Bitcoin. (Strength: 4/10)
   b. The limited supply of Bitcoin and its potential for long-term growth could support a price increase. (Strength: 8/10)
   c. Positive developments in the field of blockchain technology and its applications could enhance the value of Bitcoin. (Strength: 5/10)
   d. The price of Bitcoin has shown a history of significant price swings, and a potential bull run could push the price above $35,000.00. (Strength: 9/10)

4. Aggregated considerations:
Given the above points, the main factors influencing the outcome seem to be the current economic climate (d), the historical volatility of Bitcoin's price (a), and the potential for a bull run (d). The increasing adoption and limited supply of Bitcoin (b) and positive developments in blockchain technology (c) could also play a role. However, their impact might be less significant in the short term.

5. Initial probability: 40

6. Evaluation of the calculated probability:
The initial probability of 40 seems relatively low, considering the potential for a bull run and the increasing adoption of cryptocurrencies. However, the current economic climate and historical price volatility might still pose significant challenges for the price to reach $35,000.00. It's also essential to consider the base rate of the event, which might be low due to the unpredictable nature of cryptocurrency markets.

7. Final prediction: *0.42*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.42
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

Raw text: MAKE SURE TO FORMAT IT CORRECTLY AND PLACE BETWEEN ASTERISKS.
    {{ Insert your answer }}assistant

1. Rephrased and expanded question:
Will Bitcoin's price reach $40,000 or more before January 1, 2024, considering the current market trends, global economic conditions, and regulatory factors that may influence its value? This question takes into account the time frame from the current date (November 18, 2023) to the specified date (January 1, 2024).

2. Reasons why the answer might be no:
- **Reason 1: Economic uncertainty and recession risk** (Strength: 6/10): The global economy is experiencing high inflation, and there's a risk of a recession, which could negatively impact the value of Bitcoin and other assets. If the economy enters a recession, investors might become risk-averse, causing a decrease in Bitcoin's price.
- **Reason 2: Regulatory challenges** (Strength: 5/10): Governments and regulatory bodies are increasing scrutiny on cryptocurrencies, which could lead to stricter regulations or even bans in certain countries. This might limit Bitcoin's adoption and decrease its value.
- **Reason 3: Market volatility** (Strength: 8/10): Cryptocurrency markets are known for their high volatility, and Bitcoin's price can fluctuate rapidly. A significant drop in price could make it difficult for it to reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024.
- **Reason 4: Competition from other cryptocurrencies** (Strength: 4/10): The rise of alternative cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum and others, might attract investors away from Bitcoin, potentially decreasing its market share and value.

3. Reasons why the answer might be yes:
- **Reason 1: Increased adoption and institutional investment** (Strength: 8/10): As more institutions and investors become interested in cryptocurrencies, the demand for Bitcoin might increase, driving its price up.
- **Reason 2: Limited supply and potential scarcity** (Strength: 7/10): Bitcoin's limited supply (21 million coins) and the increasing difficulty of mining might lead to a decrease in the supply of new coins, potentially causing an increase in value.
- **Reason 3: Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and government acceptance** (Strength: 6/10): The development of CBDCs and increased government acceptance of cryptocurrencies might lead to a decrease in regulatory risks and an increase in adoption, positively affecting Bitcoin's price.

4. Aggregated considerations:
Considering the reasons above, the most significant factors affecting Bitcoin's price are market volatility, economic uncertainty, and regulatory challenges. While there are valid arguments for both sides, the potential for increased adoption and institutional investment might outweigh the risks. However, the high volatility and economic uncertainty make it difficult to predict with certainty.

5. Initial probability:
Based on the considerations above, I would estimate the probability of Bitcoin reaching $40,000 or more before January 1, 2024, to be around 40%.

6. Evaluation of the initial probability:
The initial probability seems relatively low, given the potential for increased adoption and institutional investment. However, the high volatility and economic uncertainty make it challenging to predict with high confidence. Considering the base rate of the event (i.e., the probability of Bitcoin reaching $40,000 in any given time frame), it's essential to note that this is a relatively short-term prediction, and the base rate might be low. A more conservative approach would be to adjust the probability downward.

7. Final prediction:
*\0.35*
Accelerator Rank: 0
Extracted Prediction: 0.5
Actual Resolution: 1
--------------------------------------------------

