# GPT-4o-based Agent with ReAct and Single Function Action

## Query Details and Agent Final Status
- **Query Quadruplet**: (2023-11-03, AUS, ?, CHN)
- **Number of Steps**: 12
- **End State**: Final Answer
- **Final Answer**:
  ```json
  {
    "04": ["040", "042", "043", "046"],
    "03": ["036"],
    "06": ["061"]
  }
  ```
- **Ground Truth Answer**:
  ```json
  {
    "03": ["036"],
    "04": ["042"],
    "17": ["172"]
  }
  ```

## Query Prompt
Please forecast the relations that Australia will take towards China on November 03, 2023 based on historical information up to November 02, 2023. I.e. forecast the relation CAMEO codes in query event Event(date=2023-11-03, head_entity=ISOCode(AUS), relation=CAMEOCode(?), tail_entity=ISOCode(CHN)).

## System Prompt
You are an expert in forecasting future events based on historical data. The database contains news articles from January 1, 2023 to the current date _November 02, 2023_ and the events extracted from these articles. The events are in the form of (date, subject country, relation, object country), where the countries are represented by ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 codes and the relations are represented by the CAMEO codes defined in the 'Conflict and Mediation Event Observations' ontology. The relations are hierarchical: first-level relations are general parent relations represented by two-digit CAMEO codes, while second-level relations are more specific child relations represented by three-digit CAMEO codes. Child relations have the same first two digits as their parent relations. For example, '01' is a first-level relation, and '010' and '011' are some of its second-level relations. The relations in the database are represented in the second-level form.

Your task is to forecast the future relations between two entities in a given query. You have access to a defined Python API that allows you to query the database for historical events and statistics, and to get precise information about the ISO country codes and CAMEO relation codes.

The defined API is described as follows:  
[api_description_full](../../APIs/api_description_full.py)

You will use an iterative approach, interleaving 'Thought', 'Action', and 'Observation' steps to collect information and perform the forecast. You may perform up to _20_ iterations. The steps are as follows:

- 'Thought': Analyze the current information and reason about the current situation, and predicts which API you want to use (try to use different APIs to collect diverse information) or make a decision that you want to make a final answer.
- 'Action': Use the API to gather more information or provide the final forecast.
    - If using the API: the action must be only one single line of exactly one function call from the API with appropriate inputs, without additional code, explanations, or natural language descriptions.
    - If making the final forecast: the action must start immediately with 'Final Answer:', and follow with the results in the expected JSON format.
- 'Observation': Return the output of the called function.

To make a reasonable forecast, you should collect both news and relational evidence to support your prediction. When you are fully confident that you accumulate enough information to make the final forecast, you should start the 'Thought' with your reasoning using the news and structural information to make the prediction, and then start the 'Action' step with 'Final Answer:' followed by the answer in the expected JSON format. The answer should be a JSON dictionary where the keys are the forecasted two-digit first-level CAMEO codes and the values are lists of forecasted three-digit second-level CAMEO codes that are child relations of the key. For example, 'Action: Final Answer: {"01": ["010", "011", "012"], "02": ["020", "023"]}'.

The final answer will be evaluated based on the precision and recall of the forecasted first-level and second-level relations, so only include confident first-level and second-level CAMEO codes in your final forecast.

Try to use different APIs to collect diverse information (including multi-hop relations), such as the precise meaning of CAMEO codes, insights from news content, relational data, and statistical analyses to support your forecasts. Consider not only the frequency of the relations but also the temporal aspects of the data when making your forecast.



## Agent ReAct Process
1. **Thought**:
   To forecast the relations that Australia (AUS) will take towards China (CHN) on November 03, 2023, I will start by gathering historical data on the interactions between these two countries. This will include the types of relations, their frequencies, and the context in which they occurred. I will use the following steps:

   1. Retrieve the distribution of second-level relations between Australia and China.
   2. Analyze the distribution to identify the most common types of interactions.
   3. Examine recent news articles to understand the context and any ongoing trends or events that might influence future relations.

   **Action**:
      ```python
      get_relation_distribution(head_entities=[ISOCode("AUS")], tail_entities=[ISOCode("CHN")])
      ```
   **Observation**:
      ```json
    {CAMEOCode(code='042'): 32,
     CAMEOCode(code='036'): 30,
     CAMEOCode(code='040'): 17,
    CAMEOCode(code='061'): 16,
    CAMEOCode(code='046'): 12, 
   CAMEOCode(code='043'): 11, 
   CAMEOCode(code='010'): 6, 
   CAMEOCode(code='020'): 5, 
   CAMEOCode(code='173'): 5, 
   CAMEOCode(code='012'): 5, 
   CAMEOCode(code='051'): 4, 
   CAMEOCode(code='163'): 3, 
   CAMEOCode(code='128'): 2, 
   CAMEOCode(code='050'): 2, 
   CAMEOCode(code='084'): 2, 
   CAMEOCode(code='090'): 2, 
   CAMEOCode(code='174'): 1, 
   CAMEOCode(code='112'): 1, 
   CAMEOCode(code='130'): 1, 
   CAMEOCode(code='160'): 1, 
   CAMEOCode(code='172'): 1, 
   CAMEOCode(code='192'): 1, 
   CAMEOCode(code='190'): 1, 
   CAMEOCode(code='060'): 1, 
   CAMEOCode(code='030'): 1, 
   CAMEOCode(code='035'): 1, 
   CAMEOCode(code='138'): 1, 
   CAMEOCode(code='071'): 1, 
   CAMEOCode(code='031'): 1}
      ```
2. **Thought**:
   The distribution of second-level relations between Australia and China shows a variety of interactions, with some relations being more frequent than others. The most common interactions include:

   - `042` (Consult): 32 occurrences
   - `036` (Express intent to cooperate): 30 occurrences
   - `040` (Assure): 17 occurrences
   - `061` (Cooperate economically): 16 occurrences
   - `046` (Praise or endorse): 12 occurrences
   - `043` (Apologize): 11 occurrences

   These frequent interactions suggest a trend towards diplomatic and cooperative engagements. However, to make a more informed forecast, it is essential to understand the context and any recent developments that might influence future relations. 

   Next, I will retrieve recent news articles involving Australia and China to gather insights on the current context and any ongoing trends or events.

   **Action**:
   ```python
   get_news_articles(date_range=DateRange(start_date=Date("2023-10-01"), end_date=Date("2023-11-02")), head_entities=[ISOCode("AUS")], tail_entities=[ISOCode("CHN")])
   ```
   **Observation**:
   ```json
   [(Date(date='2023-11-02'), 'No quick fix to remaining tariffs ahead of China visit'),
    (Date(date='2023-11-02'), 'China’s aggression in Indo-Pacific leads to ‘concern and angst’: Peter Dutton, Australia’s leader of opposition'), 
    (Date(date='2023-11-02'), 'China not a ‘trustworthy partner’, Taiwan warns PM'),
    (Date(date='2023-11-02'), 'Australia and China eye new ways to heal old wounds'), 
    (Date(date='2023-11-02'), 'Albanese must aim beyond bilateral outcomes on Beijing visit'),
    (Date(date='2023-11-02'), 'Anthony Albanese must show Xi Jinping he is ‘intelligent’, ‘personable’ to build on Australia’s recent diplomatic successes with China'),
    (Date(date='2023-11-02'), 'Western Australian Premier Announces Visit to China'),
    (Date(date='2023-11-02'), "Australian PM's China visit will help normalize relations, says ex-trade minister"),
    (Date(date='2023-11-02'), 'Albanese to raise human rights and trade with Xi in first China visit by Australian PM since 2016'),
    (Date(date='2023-11-02'), 'Nicholas Moore on how to get in early on the next big growth story'),
    (Date(date='2023-11-02'), 'PM’s China trip cements new era for ties'),
    (Date(date='2023-11-02'), "Albanese's visit to China offers propaganda for Xi Jinping as Beijing seeks to mend western ties"),
    (Date(date='2023-11-02'), 'PM to take a hard line on trade with China'),
    (Date(date='2023-11-01'), "China's top military official vows 'absolutely no mercy' for Taiwan independence movement, warns against US interference"),
    (Date(date='2023-11-01'), 'Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to raise imprisoned democracy blogger during China visit')]
   ```
3. **Thought**:
   The recent news articles indicate a mix of diplomatic, economic, and security-related interactions between Australia and China. Key themes include:

   - Diplomatic engagements and efforts to normalize relations, as seen in articles about the Australian Prime Minister's visit to China and efforts to heal old wounds.
   - Economic cooperation and trade discussions, including addressing tariffs and trade issues.
   - Security concerns and criticisms, particularly related to China's actions in the Indo-Pacific region and human rights issues.

   Given these themes, it is likely that the future relations between Australia and China will involve a combination of diplomatic assurances, economic cooperation, and some critical statements or actions related to security and human rights. 

   Next, I will retrieve detailed descriptions of the most frequent second-level relations to ensure accurate mapping and understanding of these interactions.

   **Action**:
   ```python
   map_cameo_to_relation(CAMEOCode("042"))
   ```
   **Observation**:
   ```json
   Relation(cameo_code=CAMEOCode('042'), name='Make a visit', description='Travel to another location for a meeting or other event.')
   ```
4. **Thought**:
   The relation `042` (Make a visit) involves traveling to another location for a meeting or other event, which aligns with the recent news about the Australian Prime Minister's visit to China. This suggests that diplomatic visits are a significant aspect of the interactions between Australia and China.

   To further refine the forecast, I will retrieve detailed descriptions for the other most frequent second-level relations: `036`, `040`, `061`, `046`, and `043`.

   **Action**:
   ```python
   map_cameo_to_relation(CAMEOCode("036"))
   ```
   **Observation**:
   ```json
   Relation(cameo_code=CAMEOCode('036'), name='Express intent to meet or negotiate', description='Offer, promise, agree to, or otherwise indicate willingness or commitment to meet, visit, or engage in talks or negotiations.')
   ```
5. **Thought**:
   The relation `036` (Express intent to meet or negotiate) involves indicating a willingness or commitment to meet, visit, or engage in talks or negotiations. This aligns with the ongoing diplomatic efforts and discussions mentioned in the recent news articles.

   Next, I will retrieve detailed descriptions for the relations `040`, `061`, `046`, and `043` to further understand the context of these interactions.

   **Action**:
   ```python
   get_parent_relation(CAMEOCode("040"))
   ```
   **Observation**:
   ```json
   Relation(cameo_code=CAMEOCode('04'), name='Consult', description='All consultations and meetings.')
   ```
6. **Thought**:
   The parent relation `04` (Consult) encompasses all consultations and meetings, which is consistent with the frequent diplomatic interactions between Australia and China. The specific relation `040` (Assure) likely involves providing assurances during these consultations.

   To further refine the forecast, I will retrieve detailed descriptions for the relations `061`, `046`, and `043`.

   **Action**:""

   **Observation**: No feedback from the environment due to the null action.
7. **Thought**:
   I will continue retrieving detailed descriptions for the relations `061`, `046`, and `043` to further understand the context of these interactions.

   **Action**:""

   **Observation**: No feedback from the environment due to the null action.
8. **Thought**:
   It seems there was an issue with my previous actions. I will now proceed to retrieve the detailed descriptions for the remaining frequent second-level relations: `061`, `046`, and `043`.
   **Action**:
   ```python
   map_cameo_to_relation(CAMEOCode("061"))
   ```
   **Observation**:
   ```json
   Relation(cameo_code=CAMEOCode('061'), name='Cooperate economically', description='Initiate, resume, improve, or expand economic exchange or cooperation.')
   ```
9. **Thought**:
   The relation `061` (Cooperate economically) involves initiating, resuming, improving, or expanding economic exchange or cooperation. This aligns with the recent news articles discussing trade issues and economic cooperation between Australia and China.

   Next, I will retrieve detailed descriptions for the relations `046` and `043`.
   
   **Action**:
   ```python
   map_cameo_to_relation(CAMEOCode("046"))
   ```
   **Observation**:
   ```json
   Relation(cameo_code=CAMEOCode('046'), name='Engage in negotiation', description='Negotiate or bargain with others.')
   ```
   
10. **Thought**:
   The relation `046` (Engage in negotiation) involves negotiating or bargaining with others. This is consistent with the ongoing discussions and negotiations mentioned in the news articles, particularly regarding trade and diplomatic issues.

   Next, I will retrieve the detailed description for the relation `043`.

   **Action**:""

   **Observation**: No feedback from the environment due to the null action.

11. **Thought**:
   It seems there was an issue with my previous actions. I will now proceed to retrieve the detailed description for the relation `043` to complete the understanding of the most frequent interactions between Australia and China.
   
   **Action**:
   ```python
   map_cameo_to_relation(CAMEOCode("043"))
   ```
   **Observation**:
   ```json
   Relation(cameo_code=CAMEOCode('043'), name='Host a visit', description='Host or receive a visitor at residence, office or home country.')
   ```
   
12. **Thought**:
    The relation `043` (Host a visit) involves hosting or receiving a visitor at a residence, office, or home country. This aligns with the diplomatic visits and engagements mentioned in the recent news articles.

    Based on the detailed descriptions and the recent news context, the most frequent interactions between Australia and China involve diplomatic visits, economic cooperation, negotiations, and assurances. These interactions suggest a trend towards diplomatic and cooperative engagements, with some critical statements or actions related to security and human rights.

    Given this information, I am confident in forecasting the following relations between Australia and China on November 03, 2023:

    - Diplomatic visits and engagements (`042`, `043`, `036`)
    - Economic cooperation (`061`)
    - Negotiations (`046`)
    - Assurances (`040`)

    **Action**:
    Final Answer: {"04": ["040", "042", "043", "046"], "03": ["036"], "06": ["061"]}

The process stops when detecting the Final Answer.