### Immediate (0–3 months)
- **Import-dependent firms (computers, autos, appliances)**
  - Draw down inventories; scramble to renegotiate supply and specs.
  - Margins compress sharply; low-margin OEMs delay launches, cut features, or cancel trims.
  - Production bottlenecks where chips are non-substitutable (notably autos), leading to line stoppages rather than smooth price hikes.
- **Consumer prices**
  - Rapid pass-through on items with high chip content and frequent repricing (PCs, GPUs, smartphones): retail prices up roughly 5–20% depending on model mix.
  - Vehicles: more quantity effects (shortages, longer wait times) and selective price hikes on high-tech trims; discounting evaporates.
- **Trade/partners**
  - Exporters seek carve-outs; re-routing via third countries rises (rules-of-origin scrutiny increases).
  - WTO complaint announced; allies lobby for exemptions.
- **Employment**
  - Tech: near-term hiring in policy, procurement, and some assembly/test; limited core fab jobs yet.
  - Downstream sectors (auto, electronics assembly, industrial equipment): temporary layoffs from production cuts.

### Short run (3–12 months)
- **Import-dependent firms**
  - Redesigns to use alternative/older nodes; increased multi-sourcing; more local inventory buffers.
  - Some shift assembly offshore to jurisdictions without the tariff, then re-import finished goods if tariff scope allows.
  - Smaller firms with weak bargaining power exit or consolidate.
- **Consumer prices**
  - Broader pass-through as contracts roll over; 60–100% of tariff cost shows up in shelf prices where chips are a sizable BOM share.
  - Electronics inflation remains elevated; vehicles stay supply constrained, with higher prices on advanced-driver-assist and infotainment packages.
- **Trade/partners**
  - Retaliatory tariffs on the country’s exports (machinery, agriculture, consumer goods) from affected chip exporters.
  - Tightening of export controls on semiconductor equipment/IP to the tariffing country by some partners, complicating domestic capacity build-out.
- **Employment**
  - Tech: construction and vendor jobs from accelerated domestic fab/OSAT investments; growth in chip design, EDA, and packaging roles.
  - Dependent sectors: net job losses where redesigns fail or volumes fall; service and retail electronics also trim staff as demand softens.

### Medium term (12–24 months)
- **Import-dependent firms**
  - Product portfolios bifurcate: “tariff-light” models with fewer/more mature-node chips vs premium models priced higher.
  - Greater reliance on refurbished/secondary-market components; some gray-market risk rises.
  - Financials stabilize for large OEMs; SMEs that survived operate with thinner lines and longer lead times.
- **Consumer prices**
  - Electronics: price level structurally higher (often 5–10% above pre-tariff for mainstream PCs/phones; wider for high-performance SKUs).
  - Vehicles: modest normalization if redesigns succeed, but tech-heavy trims remain expensive; average transaction prices stay elevated.
- **Trade/partners**
  - Partial trade diversion becomes sticky; friend-shoring of chip supply deepens.
  - If WTO case advances, either negotiated carve-outs or prolonged standoff; some partners embed reciprocal preferences that exclude the tariffing country.
- **Employment**
  - Tech: measurable gains in domestic semiconductor ecosystem (design, packaging, equipment maintenance, construction), but wafer output still limited—new fabs typically need 2–5+ years to ramp fully.
  - Dependent sectors: employment below counterfactual due to higher input costs and slimmer model ranges; some reshoring of simple electronics assembly offsets a portion.
  - Net effect: likely small positive employment in semiconductor-adjacent roles, outweighed or roughly offset by job losses/downshifts in autos, appliances, industrials, and retail—aggregate impact near-neutral to mildly negative over two years absent large subsidies.

### Key risks and mitigators
- **Risks**: higher and stickier core goods inflation; productivity drag from older-node substitutions; increased policy uncertainty; smuggling/compliance costs; retaliatory hits to unrelated export sectors.
- **Mitigators**: targeted exemptions (medical, defense, critical infrastructure); temporary drawback/FTZ schemes; accelerated subsidies for domestic fabs/equipment; international sourcing clubs to reduce retaliation.

### Bottom line
- **Year 1**: shortages and price spikes for chip-intensive goods, production cuts in autos/electronics, and retaliation risks; tech hiring mainly in construction/design, not output.
- **By Year 2**: some adaptation lowers acute pressures, but prices remain structurally higher; domestic chip ecosystem grows but is not yet large enough to offset economy-wide cost and employment headwinds in chip-dependent sectors.