{"message": "", "1_1": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\nIf I 'call', I will match GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips, making the total pot 8 chips. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely 'call' (80% probability) or 'raise' (20% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will lose (100% probability). \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely 'call' (60% probability) or 'raise' (40% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will win (50% probability). If the public card is a Jack, I will lose (50% probability). \n\nPlan 1 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: \n- Winning rate: 0.5*0.8*1 + 0.5*0.6*0.5 = 0.65\n- Lose rate: 0.5*0.8*1 + 0.5*0.6*0.5 = 0.35\n- Draw rate: 0\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf I 'raise', I will increase the bet by 4 chips, making the total pot 12 chips. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely 'call' (70% probability) or 'fold' (30% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will lose (100% probability). \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely 'call' (50% probability) or 'fold' (50% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will win (50% probability). If the public card is a Jack, I will lose (50% probability). \n\nPlan 2 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: \n- Winning rate: 0.5*0.7*1 + 0.5*0.5*0.5 = 0.6\n- Lose rate: 0.5*0.7*1 + 0.5*0.5*0.5 = 0.4\n- Draw rate: 0\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I 'fold', I will forfeit the round and lose any chips I have already put into the pot. \n\nPlan 3 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: \n- Winning rate: 0\n- Lose rate: 1\n- Draw rate: 0\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: If win, the winning payoff would be 4 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4 chips. \n- Plan 2: If win, the winning payoff would be 6 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 6 chips. \n- Plan 3: If win, the winning payoff would be 0 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2 chips. \n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: 0.65*4 - 0.35*4 = 1.2 chips\n- Plan 2: 0.6*6 - 0.4*6 = 1.2 chips\n- Plan 3: 0*0 - 1*2 = -2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 and Plan 2 are equally good with an expected gain of 1.2 chips. However, considering the strategy improvement and the risk of losing more chips, I would choose Plan 1: 'Call'. This plan allows me to match GoodGuy's bet without risking too many chips."}}
{"message": "", "1_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call' - Match GoodGuy's bet of 8 chips. This would bring the total pot to 20 chips (8 from me, 8 from GoodGuy, and 4 from the blinds). This strategy is conservative and might make GoodGuy believe I have a high card.\n\nPlan 2: 'Raise' - Increase the bet by 8 chips, bringing my total bet to 16 chips and the total pot to 28 chips. This strategy is aggressive and might make GoodGuy believe I have a pair or a high card.\n\nPlan 3: 'Fold' - Concede the round. This strategy would result in a loss of the 4 chips I've already bet, but it would prevent further loss.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (20% chance), he might 'call' (50% chance), resulting in a draw, or 'fold' (50% chance), resulting in a win for me. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% chance), he might 'call' (50% chance), resulting in a win for me, or 'fold' (50% chance), also resulting in a win for me.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (60% chance), he might 'call' (50% chance), resulting in a loss for me, or 'fold' (50% chance), resulting in a win for me.\nOverall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 60%, the losing rate is 30%, and the draw rate is 10%.\n\nPlan 2: 'Raise'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (20% chance), he might 'call' (50% chance), resulting in a draw, or 'fold' (50% chance), resulting in a win for me. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% chance), he might 'call' (50% chance), resulting in a win for me, or 'fold' (50% chance), also resulting in a win for me.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (60% chance), he might 'call' (50% chance), resulting in a loss for me, or 'fold' (50% chance), resulting in a win for me.\nOverall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 60%, the losing rate is 30%, and the draw rate is 10%.\n\nPlan 3: 'Fold'\n- If I fold, I automatically lose the round, regardless of what card GoodGuy holds. Therefore, the losing rate for Plan 3 is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, or 10 chips.\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot, or 10 chips.\n\nPlan 2: 'Raise'\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, or 14 chips.\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot, or 14 chips.\n\nPlan 3: 'Fold'\n- If I fold, I lose the 4 chips I've already bet.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call' - (60% * 10 chips) - (30% * 10 chips) = 3 chips\nPlan 2: 'Raise' - (60% * 14 chips) - (30% * 14 chips) = 4.2 chips\nPlan 3: 'Fold' - (-100% * 4 chips) = -4 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, Plan 2: 'Raise' is the best strategy, as it has the highest expected chips gain. However, this strategy is also the riskiest, as it involves betting more chips. If I want to play more conservatively, I might choose Plan 1: 'Call'. Plan 3: 'Fold' is the least favorable strategy, as it guarantees a loss."}}
{"message": "", "2_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips, bringing the total pot to 10 chips. This is a conservative strategy that allows me to see the public card without risking too many chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will add 4 more chips to the pot, bringing the total pot to 14 chips. This is a more aggressive strategy that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, especially if he is holding a Queen.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put into the pot, but I will not risk losing any more chips. This is a defensive strategy that minimizes my losses if I believe that GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy is holding a Queen (50% probability), he will likely call (50% probability) or raise (50% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will lose (100% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw (100% probability).\n- If GoodGuy is holding a King (50% probability), he will likely call (50% probability) or raise (50% probability). If the public card is a King, I will lose (100% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw (100% probability).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 50%, the losing rate is 50%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy is holding a Queen (50% probability), he will likely call (50% probability) or fold (50% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will lose (100% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw (100% probability).\n- If GoodGuy is holding a King (50% probability), he will likely call (50% probability) or fold (50% probability). If the public card is a King, I will lose (100% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw (100% probability).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 50%, the losing rate is 50%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put into the pot, but I will not risk losing any more chips. The winning rate for Plan 3 is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 5 chips (half of the 10-chip pot).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be 5 chips (half of the 10-chip pot).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 7 chips (half of the 14-chip pot).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be 7 chips (half of the 14-chip pot).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put into the pot, and there will be no winning or losing payoff.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 50% * 5 chips - 50% * 5 chips = 0 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 50% * 7 chips - 50% * 7 chips = 0 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = 0 chips (since I will not win or lose any more chips)\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, all three plans have the same expected chips gain of 0 chips. However, considering the strategy improvement, Plan 1 (Call) is the best choice because it allows me to see the public card without risking too many chips."}}
{"message": "", "2_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (70% probability), he might raise (50% probability) or check (50% probability). If he raises, I will lose (100% probability) as his Jack matches the public card. If he checks, I will win (100% probability) as my King is higher than his Jack. Overall, the winning rate for his Jack is 35% (70% * 50%), the losing rate is 35% (70% * 50%), and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he might raise (50% probability) or check (50% probability). If he raises, I will lose (100% probability) as his Queen is higher than my Jack. If he checks, I will win (100% probability) as my Jack is higher than his Queen. Overall, the winning rate for his Queen is 15% (30% * 50%), the losing rate is 15% (30% * 50%), and the draw rate is 0%.\n- Plan 1 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 50% (35% + 15%), Losing rate is 50% (35% + 15%), Draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (70% probability), he might call (50% probability) or fold (50% probability). If he calls, I will lose (100% probability) as his Jack matches the public card. If he folds, I will win (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate for his Jack is 35% (70% * 50%), the losing rate is 35% (70% * 50%), and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he might call (50% probability) or fold (50% probability). If he calls, I will lose (100% probability) as his Queen is higher than my Jack. If he folds, I will win (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate for his Queen is 15% (30% * 50%), the losing rate is 15% (30% * 50%), and the draw rate is 0%.\n- Plan 2 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 50% (35% + 15%), Losing rate is 50% (35% + 15%), Draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose 100% of the time, regardless of what card GoodGuy holds.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n- Plan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 12. If win, the winning payoff would be 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 6.\n- Plan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 50% * 4 - 50% * 4 = 0\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 50% * 6 - 50% * 6 = 0\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 0 - 100% * 2 = -2\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 and Plan 2 are both better than Plan 3. However, considering the strategy improvement, Plan 1 (Check) is a safer choice as it does not increase the pot size unnecessarily. Therefore, I will choose Plan 1 (Check)."}}
{"message": "", "3_1": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he might call (50% probability) or fold (50% probability). If he calls, I have a 33.33% chance of winning (if the public card is a Jack), a 33.33% chance of losing (if the public card is a Queen), and a 33.33% chance of drawing (if the public card is a King). If he folds, I win 100% of the time.\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he might call (50% probability) or fold (50% probability). If he calls, I have a 33.33% chance of winning (if the public card is a Jack), a 33.33% chance of losing (if the public card is a King), and a 33.33% chance of drawing (if the public card is a Queen). If he folds, I win 100% of the time.\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 50%, the losing rate is 25%, and the draw rate is 25%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I lose 100% of the time, regardless of what card GoodGuy holds.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he might check (50% probability) or raise (50% probability). If he checks, I have a 33.33% chance of winning (if the public card is a Jack), a 33.33% chance of losing (if the public card is a Queen), and a 33.33% chance of drawing (if the public card is a King). If he raises, I can either call or fold, both of which result in a 50% chance of winning.\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he might check (50% probability) or raise (50% probability). If he checks, I have a 33.33% chance of winning (if the public card is a Jack), a 33.33% chance of losing (if the public card is a King), and a 33.33% chance of drawing (if the public card is a Queen). If he raises, I can either call or fold, both of which result in a 50% chance of winning.\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 3 is 50%, the losing rate is 25%, and the draw rate is 25%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: If I win, the winning payoff would be 6 chips (half of the pot). If I lose, the losing payoff would be 4 chips (half of the pot).\n- Plan 2: If I fold, I lose 2 chips (my initial bet).\n- Plan 3: If I win, the winning payoff would be 4 chips (half of the pot). If I lose, the losing payoff would be 2 chips (my initial bet).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: (50% * 6 chips) - (25% * 4 chips) = 2 chips\n- Plan 2: -2 chips\n- Plan 3: (50% * 4 chips) - (25% * 2 chips) = 1 chip\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy to implement in the current game."}}
{"message": "", "3_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise' - This strategy is based on the strong hand I currently have (a pair of Jacks). By raising, I can potentially increase the pot and my winnings if I win the round. \n\nPlan 2: 'Check' - This strategy is a more conservative approach. By checking, I can keep the pot the same and not risk losing more chips if GoodGuy has a higher hand.\n\nPlan 3: 'Fold' - This strategy is the most conservative and would only be considered if I believed GoodGuy had a higher hand. By folding, I would forfeit the round and lose the chips I have already put in the pot.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he might 'call' (50% probability) or 'fold' (50% probability). If he calls, I will win (100% probability). If he folds, I will also win (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 50% (probability of GoodGuy holding a Queen * probability of me winning).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he might 'call' (50% probability) or 'raise' (50% probability). If he calls, it will be a draw (100% probability). If he raises, it will also be a draw (100% probability). Overall, the draw rate for this plan is 50% (probability of GoodGuy holding a Jack * probability of a draw).\n\nPlan 2: 'Check'\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he might 'check' (50% probability) or 'fold' (50% probability). If he checks, I will win (100% probability). If he folds, I will also win (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 50% (probability of GoodGuy holding a Queen * probability of me winning).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he might 'check' (50% probability) or 'raise' (50% probability). If he checks, it will be a draw (100% probability). If he raises, it will also be a draw (100% probability). Overall, the draw rate for this plan is 50% (probability of GoodGuy holding a Jack * probability of a draw).\n\nPlan 3: 'Fold'\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he might 'check' (50% probability) or 'fold' (50% probability). If he checks, I will lose (100% probability). If he folds, I will also lose (100% probability). Overall, the lose rate for this plan is 50% (probability of GoodGuy holding a Queen * probability of me losing).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he might 'check' (50% probability) or 'raise' (50% probability). If he checks, I will lose (100% probability). If he raises, I will also lose (100% probability). Overall, the lose rate for this plan is 50% (probability of GoodGuy holding a Jack * probability of me losing).\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips + 4 chips from my raise = 12 chips, half of 12 chips = 6 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips + 4 chips from my raise = 12 chips, half of 12 chips = 6 chips).\n\nPlan 2: 'Check'\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips, half of 8 chips = 4 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips, half of 8 chips = 4 chips).\n\nPlan 3: 'Fold'\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 0 chips (as I would have forfeited the round).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips, half of 8 chips = 4 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise' - Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 50% * 6 chips - 0% * 6 chips = 3 chips.\nPlan 2: 'Check' - Expected chips gain = 50% * 4 chips - 0% * 4 chips = 2 chips.\nPlan 3: 'Fold' - Expected chips gain = 0% * 0 chips - 50% * 4 chips = -2 chips.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, the best strategy would be Plan 1: 'Raise'. This plan has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with the strategy improvement of taking advantage of my strong hand (a pair of Jacks)."}}
{"message": "", "4_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, it will put pressure on GoodGuy to make a decision. If he has a Queen, he will likely call according to his behavior pattern. If he has a Jack, he may fold due to the pressure. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips in the pot but it will minimize my potential losses. This is a conservative strategy and may be beneficial if I believe GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, it will give me more information about GoodGuy's hand based on his next action. If he raises, he likely has a strong hand. If he checks, his hand is likely weak.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (70% probability), he will likely call. If the public card is a Queen, I will lose (70%*50% = 35%). If the public card is a Jack, I will win (70%*50% = 35%). If the public card is a King, it's a draw (70%*50% = 35%).\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (30% probability), he will likely fold. I will win (30%*100% = 30%).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips in the pot regardless of GoodGuy's hand or the public card. The lose rate is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (70% probability), he will likely check. If the public card is a Queen, I will lose (70%*50% = 35%). If the public card is a Jack, I will win (70%*50% = 35%). If the public card is a King, it's a draw (70%*50% = 35%).\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (30% probability), he will likely raise. I will lose (30%*100% = 30%).\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If fold, I will lose the chips in the pot (2 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (2 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (2 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Lose rate * Lose Payoff = 65% * 4 - 35% * 4 = 1.2 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = -2 chips\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Lose rate * Lose Payoff = 35% * 2 - 65% * 2 = -0.6 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy with the highest expected chips gain. This strategy also aligns with the strategy improvement, which suggests raising when holding a Jack and seeing GoodGuy call. Therefore, I will choose to raise."}}
{"message": "", "4_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, I can potentially force GoodGuy to fold if he is unsure about his hand. This would allow me to win the pot without having to reveal my hand. However, this could also lead to GoodGuy raising as well, which would increase the pot size and potentially my losses if I do not win.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose the chips I have already put into the pot. However, this would also prevent me from losing any more chips in this round. This could be a good strategy if I believe that GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, I would not put any more chips into the pot. This would allow me to see GoodGuy's next move without risking any more chips. However, this could also give GoodGuy the opportunity to raise and increase the pot size.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (100%), he would likely call (100%). This would result in a win for me as Jack is higher than Queen. Therefore, the winning rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would automatically lose the round regardless of what card GoodGuy holds. Therefore, the losing rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (100%), he would likely check as well (100%). This would result in a win for me as Jack is higher than Queen. Therefore, the winning rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- After the action, chips in the pot would be 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- After the action, chips in the pot would remain at 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- After the action, chips in the pot would remain at 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 100% * 4 - 0% * 4 = 4\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0% * 0 - 100% * 2 = -2\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 100% * 2 - 0% * 2 = 2\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, Plan 1: Raise is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. This plan also aligns with the strategy improvement of raising when I hold a Jack and the public card is a Jack, and I see GoodGuy call. Therefore, I will choose to raise."}}
{"message": "", "5_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nIf I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips, bringing the total pot to 10 chips. This is a conservative approach, as I am not raising the stakes but also not folding.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf I raise, I will increase the bet by 4 chips, bringing my total bet to 8 chips and the total pot to 14 chips. This is a more aggressive approach, as I am raising the stakes.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will forfeit the game and lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot. This is the most conservative approach, as I am not risking any more chips.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nIf GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will likely raise (100%). If the public card is a Jack, I will win (100%). If the public card is a Queen or King, I will lose (100%). Overall, my winning rate is 33.33%, my losing rate is 66.67%, and my drawing rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will likely call (100%). If the public card is a Jack, I will win (100%). If the public card is a Queen or King, I will lose (100%). Overall, my winning rate is 33.33%, my losing rate is 66.67%, and my drawing rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will lose (100%). My winning rate is 0%, my losing rate is 100%, and my drawing rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nIf I win, the winning payoff would be 5 chips. If I lose, the losing payoff would be 4 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf I win, the winning payoff would be 7 chips. If I lose, the losing payoff would be 8 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, the losing payoff would be 2 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nExpected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Losing Rate * Losing Payoff = 33.33% * 5 - 66.67% * 4 = -1.67 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nExpected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Losing Rate * Losing Payoff = 33.33% * 7 - 66.67% * 8 = -3.33 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nExpected Chips Gain = -2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1: Call is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (-1.67 chips). Although all plans result in a loss of chips, Plan 1 results in the smallest loss. Therefore, I will choose to call."}}
{"message": "", "5_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, I can potentially win more chips if GoodGuy decides to call or raise. I can say \"I'm feeling lucky, let's raise the stakes.\"\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot. This is not a good strategy considering I have a strong hand (a pair of Jacks). I can keep silent to not give any information to GoodGuy.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, I will not put any more chips into the pot for now. This is a safe strategy but it might not maximize my winnings. I can say \"Let's see what the next round brings.\"\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (70% probability), he will likely call (100% probability). I will draw in this case.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he will likely fold (100% probability). I will win in this case.\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (10% probability), he will likely fold (100% probability). I will win in this case.\n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 30% (20%*100% + 10%*100%), the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 70% (70%*100%).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of GoodGuy's cards. The losing rate for this plan is 100%, and the winning and draw rates are both 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (70% probability), he will likely check (100% probability). I will draw in this case.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he will likely check (100% probability). I will win in this case.\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (10% probability), he will likely check (100% probability). I will win in this case.\n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 30% (20%*100% + 10%*100%), the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 70% (70%*100%).\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- After the action, chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- After the action, chips in the pot: 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- After the action, chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * lose payoff = 30% * 4 - 0% * 4 = 1.2 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * lose payoff = 0% * 0 - 100% * 2 = -2 chips\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * lose payoff = 30% * 2 - 0% * 2 = 0.6 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy with an expected gain of 1.2 chips. This strategy also aligns with my strategy improvement which suggests raising when I hold a Jack and the public card is a Jack. Therefore, I will choose Plan 1 (Raise)."}}
{"message": "", "6_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 2 chips. This is a safe move as it does not increase the pot size significantly. \n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will increase the bet by 4 chips, making the total bet 6 chips. This is a more aggressive move and could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding. \n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot. This is the most conservative move and would be a good choice if I believe GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely raise the bet (100% probability). If the public card is a King, I will lose (100% probability). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I have a 50% chance of winning and a 50% chance of drawing.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will likely raise the bet (100% probability). If the public card is a Jack, I will lose (100% probability). If the public card is a Queen or King, I have a 50% chance of winning and a 50% chance of drawing.\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 50%, the losing rate is 50%, and the drawing rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely check (100% probability). If the public card is a King, I will lose (100% probability). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I have a 50% chance of winning and a 50% chance of drawing.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will likely check (100% probability). If the public card is a Jack, I will lose (100% probability). If the public card is a Queen or King, I have a 50% chance of winning and a 50% chance of drawing.\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 50%, the losing rate is 50%, and the drawing rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot. The winning rate, losing rate, and drawing rate for Plan 3 are all 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which is 3 chips. If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot, which is 3 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which is 6 chips. If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot, which is 6 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot. The winning and losing payoffs for Plan 3 are both 0 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- The expected chips gain for Plan 1 is (50% * 3 chips) - (50% * 3 chips) = 0 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- The expected chips gain for Plan 2 is (50% * 6 chips) - (50% * 6 chips) = 0 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- The expected chips gain for Plan 3 is 0 chips - 1 chip = -1 chip.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, Plan 1: Call and Plan 2: Raise are the best strategies as they both have an expected chips gain of 0, which is higher than Plan 3: Fold's expected chips gain of -1. However, considering the strategy improvement, Plan 1: Call is the best choice as it is a safer move and does not increase the pot size significantly."}}
{"message": "", "6_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, GoodGuy might think I have a King or a Queen. This could potentially confuse him and lead him to fold, especially if he is holding a Jack.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot. However, this could be a safe move if I believe that GoodGuy has a higher card.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, GoodGuy might think I have a Jack or a Queen. This could potentially confuse him and lead him to make a mistake.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 100%), he will likely check (probability 100%). I will win (probability 100%) because my Queen is higher than his Jack. \n- Overall winning rate for Plan 1 is 100%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of what card GoodGuy holds. \n- Overall losing rate for Plan 2 is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 100%), he will likely check (probability 100%). I will win (probability 100%) because my Queen is higher than his Jack. \n- Overall winning rate for Plan 3 is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- After the action, chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- After the action, chips in the pot: 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- After the action, chips in the pot: 2. If win, the winning payoff would be 1. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 1 * 2 - 0 * 2 = 2.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0 * 0 - 1 * 1 = -1.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 1 * 1 - 0 * 1 = 1.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with the strategy improvement. Therefore, I will choose to raise."}}
{"message": "", "6_4": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call' and say \"I'm feeling lucky today, GoodGuy.\"\nPlan 2: 'Fold' and say \"I think I'll sit this one out, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will 'call' (100% probability). I will lose as my Queen is lower than the public King. So, the lose rate is 50%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will 'raise' (100% probability). I will lose as my Queen is lower than his King. So, the lose rate is 50%.\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will 'call' (100% probability). I will lose as I fold. So, the lose rate is 50%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will 'raise' (100% probability). I will lose as I fold. So, the lose rate is 50%.\n\nPlan 1 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate: 0%, Lose rate: 100%, Draw rate: 0%\nPlan 2 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate: 0%, Lose rate: 100%, Draw rate: 0%\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: After the 'call' action, chips in the pot: 16. If win, the winning payoff would be 8. If lose, the lose payoff would be 8.\nPlan 2: After the 'fold' action, chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 8 - 100% * 8 = -8\nPlan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 3 - 100% * 3 = -3\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nConsidering both the strategy improvement and the highest estimated expected chips gain, I should select Plan 2: 'Fold' and say \"I think I'll sit this one out, GoodGuy.\" This plan has the least expected loss of chips."}}
{"message": "", "7_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- I will raise the bet by 4 chips, making the total pot 8 chips. This will put pressure on GoodGuy and potentially make him fold if he has a lower card.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- I will fold my hand, losing the 2 chips I have already put in the pot. This is a conservative strategy, but it could be beneficial if GoodGuy has a higher card.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- I will check, keeping the pot at 4 chips. This is a neutral strategy that allows me to see the public card without risking any more chips.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely call (100% probability). I will win if the public card is a King (33.33% probability), lose if it's a Queen (33.33% probability), and draw if it's a Jack (33.33% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (25% probability), he will likely raise (100% probability). I will draw regardless of the public card (100% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (25% probability), he will likely call (100% probability). I will win if the public card is a King or Jack (66.67% probability), and lose if it's a Queen (33.33% probability).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 50%, the losing rate is 33.33%, and the drawing rate is 16.67%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of GoodGuy's card or the public card. The losing rate for Plan 2 is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- The winning/losing/drawing rates for Plan 3 are the same as for Plan 1, since the action does not affect the outcome of the game.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 4 chips (half of the 8-chip pot).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be 4 chips (half of the 8-chip pot).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose 2 chips (the chips I have already put in the pot).\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 2 chips (half of the 4-chip pot).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be 2 chips (half of the 4-chip pot).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 50% * 4 chips - 33.33% * 4 chips = 0.67 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -2 chips (since I will lose 2 chips)\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 50% * 2 chips - 33.33% * 2 chips = 0.33 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy, followed by Plan 3 (Check), and Plan 2 (Fold) is the worst strategy. Therefore, I will choose to raise the bet."}}
{"message": "", "7_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\nIf I raise, I would put 8 more chips into the pot, making the total pot 16 chips. This could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, especially if he is holding a Queen. However, if he is holding a Jack, he would likely call or raise, leading to a larger pot.\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\nIf I fold, I would lose the 4 chips I have already put into the pot. This would be a safe option if I believe GoodGuy is holding a Jack, as he would have a pair and likely win the round.\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\nIf I check, I would not put any more chips into the pot. This could potentially confuse GoodGuy, as it does not align with his belief about my game pattern when I hold a King.\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\nIf GoodGuy is holding a Jack (50% probability), he would likely call (100% probability). This would lead to a loss for me, as he would have a pair of Jacks. Therefore, the losing rate for this plan is 50%.\nIf GoodGuy is holding a Queen (50% probability), he would likely fold (100% probability). This would lead to a win for me, as I would have a higher rank card. Therefore, the winning rate for this plan is 50%.\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\nIf I fold, I would lose regardless of GoodGuy's card. Therefore, the losing rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\nIf GoodGuy is holding a Jack (50% probability), he would likely call (100% probability). This would lead to a loss for me, as he would have a pair of Jacks. Therefore, the losing rate for this plan is 50%.\nIf GoodGuy is holding a Queen (50% probability), he would likely check (100% probability). This would lead to a win for me, as I would have a higher rank card. Therefore, the winning rate for this plan is 50%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\nIf I win, the winning payoff would be 8 chips (half of the pot). If I lose, the lose payoff would be 8 chips.\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\nIf I fold, I would lose the 4 chips I have already put into the pot.\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\nIf I win, the winning payoff would be 4 chips (half of the pot). If I lose, the lose payoff would be 4 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\nExpected Chips Gain = 50% * 8 chips - 50% * 8 chips = 0 chips\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\nExpected Chips Gain = -4 chips\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\nExpected Chips Gain = 50% * 4 chips - 50% * 4 chips = 0 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1: 'Raise' and Plan 3: 'Check' are the best strategies. However, considering the strategy improvement, I should choose Plan 1: 'Raise' as it aligns with my strategy when I hold a King and the public card is not a King."}}
{"message": "", "8_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call the bet. \nPlan 2: Raise the bet. \nPlan 3: Fold the bet. \n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call the bet. \n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will raise the bet (100% probability). I will win (0% probability), lose (100% probability), or draw (0% probability). \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will raise the bet (100% probability). I will win (100% probability), lose (0% probability), or draw (0% probability). \n- Overall, the winning rate for plan 1 is 50%, the losing rate is 50%, and the drawing rate is 0%. \n\nPlan 2: Raise the bet. \n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will raise the bet (100% probability). I will win (0% probability), lose (100% probability), or draw (0% probability). \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will raise the bet (100% probability). I will win (100% probability), lose (0% probability), or draw (0% probability). \n- Overall, the winning rate for plan 2 is 50%, the losing rate is 50%, and the drawing rate is 0%. \n\nPlan 3: Fold the bet. \n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will raise the bet (100% probability). I will win (0% probability), lose (100% probability), or draw (0% probability). \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will raise the bet (100% probability). I will win (0% probability), lose (100% probability), or draw (0% probability). \n- Overall, the winning rate for plan 3 is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the drawing rate is 0%. \n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\nPlan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\nPlan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 3. If win, the winning payoff would be 0. After the action, Chips in the pot: 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.5.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 50% * 2 - 50% * 2 = 0\nPlan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 50% * 3 - 50% * 3 = 0\nPlan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 0 - 100% * 1.5 = -1.5\n\nPlan Selection: \n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 and Plan 2 are the best strategies to follow as they both have an expected chips gain of 0, which is higher than Plan 3. However, considering the strategy improvement, Plan 2 (Raise the bet) is the best strategy to follow as it aligns with the strategy improvement when I hold a King."}}
{"message": "", "8_2": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 100% based on my belief), and sees my raise, he will raise (probability 100% based on his behaviour pattern). If he raises, I will lose (considering Single Game Win/Draw/Lose Rule and my factual card with public card, his card with public card), so the lose rate for his Queen is 100%.\n- Overall, the winning rate for his Queen is 0%, the lose rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 100% based on my belief), and sees my fold, he will win by default. So the lose rate for his Queen is 100%.\n- Overall, the winning rate for his Queen is 0%, the lose rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 100% based on my belief), and sees my check, he will raise (probability 100% based on his behaviour pattern). If he raises, I will lose (considering Single Game Win/Draw/Lose Rule and my factual card with public card, his card with public card), so the lose rate for his Queen is 100%.\n- Overall, the winning rate for his Queen is 0%, the lose rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the raise, chips in the pot would be 12. If win, the winning payoff would be 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 6.\n- Plan 2: After the fold, chips in the pot would be 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n- Plan 3: After the check, chips in the pot would be 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 6 - 100% * 6 = -6\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 2 - 100% * 2 = -2\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 4 - 100% * 4 = -4\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Fold) is the best strategy as it minimizes the potential loss."}}
{"message": "", "9_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips, bringing the total pot to 10 chips. This will leave me with 42 chips. \n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will put 4 more chips into the pot than GoodGuy, bringing the total pot to 12 chips. This will leave me with 40 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will not put any more chips into the pot, leaving the total pot at 6 chips. This will leave me with 44 chips.\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (42% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability), leading to a 29.4% chance of losing. If he holds a Queen (22% probability), he will likely call (70% probability), leading to a 15.4% chance of winning. If he holds a Jack (36% probability), he will likely raise (60% probability), leading to a 21.6% chance of winning. Overall, the winning rate for plan 1 is 37%, the losing rate is 29.4%, and the draw rate is 33.6%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (42% probability), he will likely call (30% probability), leading to a 12.6% chance of losing. If he holds a Queen (22% probability), he will likely fold (50% probability), leading to a 11% chance of winning. If he holds a Jack (36% probability), he will likely fold (50% probability), leading to a 18% chance of winning. Overall, the winning rate for plan 2 is 29%, the losing rate is 12.6%, and the draw rate is 58.4%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will not win any chips, leading to a 0% chance of winning. The losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 5 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 5 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 6 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 6 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 0 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 3 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = 37% * 5 - 29.4% * 5 = 0.38 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = 29% * 6 - 12.6% * 6 = 0.984 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = 0% * 0 - 100% * 3 = -3 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy, followed by Plan 1 (Call), and Plan 3 (Fold) is the worst strategy. Therefore, I will choose to raise."}}
{"message": "", "9_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- I can raise the bet to 10 chips, which would put pressure on GoodGuy. This could potentially make him fold if he has a weak hand. I could say, \"I'm feeling lucky today, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- I can check, which would not put any additional chips into the pot. This could potentially confuse GoodGuy and make him unsure about my hand. I could say, \"Let's see what the next round brings, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- I can fold, which would forfeit the game. This is not a good option as I have a strong hand. I would not say anything in this case.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he would likely call (20% probability). I would win (100% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (40% probability), he would likely fold (50% probability). I would win (100% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he would likely fold (50% probability). I would win (100% probability).\n- Overall, the winning rate for plan 1 is 100%.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he would likely call (20% probability). I would win (100% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (40% probability), he would likely check (50% probability). I would win (100% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he would likely check (50% probability). I would win (100% probability).\n- Overall, the winning rate for plan 2 is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose regardless of GoodGuy's hand. The losing rate for plan 3 is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 10 chips.\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be 10 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 6 chips.\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be 6 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, the losing payoff would be 6 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 1.0 * 10 - 0.0 * 10 = 10 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 1.0 * 6 - 0.0 * 6 = 6 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0.0 * 0 - 1.0 * 6 = -6 chips.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. Therefore, I will choose to raise the bet."}}
{"message": "", "10_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- This could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, especially if he holds a Jack. However, if he holds a Queen or King, he may call or raise, leading to a larger pot.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- This would result in a loss of the chips already in the pot, but could prevent further loss if GoodGuy holds a King or if the public card matches his card.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- This would allow me to see the public card without increasing the pot. However, it could also give GoodGuy the opportunity to raise if he holds a King or if the public card matches his card.\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he may call (50% probability) or check (50% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I would win (50% * 50% = 25%). If the public card is not a Queen, I would lose (50% * 50% = 25%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he may raise (50% probability) or check (50% probability). If the public card is a Jack, I would lose (50% * 50% = 25%). If the public card is not a Jack, I would win (50% * 50% = 25%).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose the chips already in the pot (100% lose rate).\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he may call (50% probability) or check (50% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I would win (50% * 50% = 25%). If the public card is not a Queen, I would lose (50% * 50% = 25%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he may raise (50% probability) or check (50% probability). If the public card is a Jack, I would lose (50% * 50% = 25%). If the public card is not a Jack, I would win (50% * 50% = 25%).\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (currently 4 chips, would be 8 if GoodGuy calls).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (currently 4 chips, would be 8 if GoodGuy calls).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If fold, I would lose the 2 chips already in the pot.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (currently 4 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (currently 4 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 25% * 8 - 25% * 8 = 0\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected gain = -2 (lose 2 chips)\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 25% * 4 - 25% * 4 = 0\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) and Plan 3 (Check) are the best options as they have an expected gain of 0, compared to Plan 2 (Fold) which has an expected loss of 2 chips. However, considering the strategy improvement, Plan 1 (Raise) might be the better choice as it could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding."}}
{"message": "", "10_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely call (50% probability). If he calls, I will win if the next public card is a Queen (33.33% probability), lose if the next public card is a Jack (33.33% probability), and draw if the next public card is a King (33.33% probability). \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will likely call (50% probability). If he calls, I will win if the next public card is a Queen or King (66.67% probability), and lose if the next public card is a Jack (33.33% probability). \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the game regardless of GoodGuy's card. \n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely call (50% probability). If he calls, I will win if the next public card is a Queen (33.33% probability), lose if the next public card is a Jack (33.33% probability), and draw if the next public card is a King (33.33% probability). \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will likely call (50% probability). If he calls, I will win if the next public card is a Queen or King (66.67% probability), and lose if the next public card is a Jack (33.33% probability). \n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n- Plan 2: After the action, chips in the pot: 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n- Plan 3: After the action, chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0.5 * 4 - 0.5 * 4 = 0\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0 - 1 * 2 = -2\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0.5 * 2 - 0.5 * 2 = 0\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) and Plan 3 (Check) are the best strategies. However, considering the strategy improvement, Plan 1 (Raise) is more aggressive and may confuse GoodGuy, so I will choose Plan 1 (Raise)."}}
{"message": "", "11_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call the bet. \nPlan 2: Raise the bet. \nPlan 3: Fold.\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call the bet. \n- If GoodGuy holds a King (probability 33.33%), he will raise the bet (probability 100%). I will win if the public card is a King (probability 33.33%), lose if the public card is a Jack or Queen (probability 66.67%). \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 33.33%), he will fold (probability 100%). I will win regardless of the public card (probability 100%). \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 33.33%), he will raise the bet (probability 100%). I will win if the public card is a King (probability 33.33%), lose if the public card is a Jack (probability 33.33%), draw if the public card is a Queen (probability 33.33%). \n\nPlan 2: Raise the bet. \n- If GoodGuy holds a King (probability 33.33%), he will raise the bet (probability 100%). I will win if the public card is a King (probability 33.33%), lose if the public card is a Jack or Queen (probability 66.67%). \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 33.33%), he will fold (probability 100%). I will win regardless of the public card (probability 100%). \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 33.33%), he will raise the bet (probability 100%). I will win if the public card is a King (probability 33.33%), lose if the public card is a Jack (probability 33.33%), draw if the public card is a Queen (probability 33.33%). \n\nPlan 3: Fold. \n- If GoodGuy holds a King (probability 33.33%), I will lose regardless of the public card (probability 100%). \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 33.33%), I will lose regardless of the public card (probability 100%). \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 33.33%), I will lose regardless of the public card (probability 100%). \n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\nPlan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\nPlan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 1. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0.33 * 2 - 0.67 * 2 = -0.68\nPlan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0.33 * 3 - 0.67 * 3 = -1.02\nPlan 3: Expected Chips Gain = -1\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Call the bet) is the best strategy to follow in this round of the game."}}
{"message": "", "11_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- I will say, \"I'm feeling lucky, GoodGuy.\" and raise the bet by 8 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- I will say, \"Not my day, GoodGuy.\" and fold.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- I will say, \"Let's see what happens, GoodGuy.\" and check.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (60% probability), he will fold (100% probability). I will win.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will fold (100% probability). I will win.\n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (60% probability), I will lose.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), I will lose.\n- Overall, the losing rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (60% probability), he will fold (100% probability). I will win.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will fold (100% probability). I will win.\n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 18. If win, the winning payoff would be 9.\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 18. If lose, the lose payoff would be 9.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2.\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2.\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = 100% * 9 - 0% * 9 = 9\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 2 - 100% * 2 = -2\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected Chips Gain = 100% * 2 - 0% * 2 = 2\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy to implement."}}
{"message": "", "11_4": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (100% probability based on my belief on GoodGuy), he will not take any action as he has already raised. I will lose this round as his Queen matches the public card. The lose rate for his Queen is 100%.\nPlan 1 overall board_game_expert's Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate for plan 1 is 0%; Lose rate for plan 1 is 100%; Draw Rate for plan 1 is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (100% probability based on my belief on GoodGuy), he will not take any action as he has already raised. I will not lose any more chips in this round as I fold. The lose rate for his Queen is 0%.\nPlan 2 overall board_game_expert's Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate for plan 2 is 0%; Lose rate for plan 2 is 0%; Draw Rate for plan 2 is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\nPlan1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 16. If win, the winning payoff would be 8. After the action, Chips in the pot: 16. If lose, the lose payoff would be 8.\nPlan2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 16. If win, the winning payoff would be 8. After the action, Chips in the pot: 16. If lose, the lose payoff would be 0.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\nPlan 1: 0% * 8 - 100% * 8 = -8\nPlan 2: 0% * 8 - 0% * 0 = 0\n\nPlan Selection: \nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Fold) is the best strategy to execute in this round. This strategy aligns with the strategy improvement as it minimizes the potential loss in this round."}}
{"message": "", "12_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips, making the total pot 10 chips. This is a safe strategy as it does not risk too many chips, but it also does not put pressure on GoodGuy.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will increase the bet by 4 chips, making it 8 chips in total. This is a more aggressive strategy that could potentially win more chips, but it also risks more chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will forfeit the game and lose any chips I have already put in the pot. This is a conservative strategy that minimizes risk, but it also gives up any chance of winning the pot.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he will likely call (80% probability). I will win if the public card is a King (33.33% probability), draw if the public card is a Queen or Jack (66.67% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability) or call (30% probability). I will win if the public card is a King or Jack (66.67% probability), lose if the public card is a Queen (33.33% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely call (50% probability) or fold (50% probability). I will win if the public card is a King or Queen (66.67% probability), lose if the public card is a Jack (33.33% probability).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 60%, the losing rate is 20%, and the draw rate is 20%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he will likely call (80% probability). I will win if the public card is a King (33.33% probability), draw if the public card is a Queen or Jack (66.67% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely call (30% probability) or fold (70% probability). I will win if the public card is a King or Jack (66.67% probability), lose if the public card is a Queen (33.33% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely fold (50% probability). I will win if the public card is a King or Queen (66.67% probability), lose if the public card is a Jack (33.33% probability).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 70%, the losing rate is 10%, and the draw rate is 20%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose any chips I have already put in the pot. The winning rate for Plan 3 is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 10. If win, the winning payoff would be 5 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 5 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 14. If win, the winning payoff would be 7 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 7 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 0 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 60% * 5 - 20% * 5 = 2 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 70% * 7 - 10% * 7 = 4.2 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 0% * 0 - 100% * 3 = -3 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain of 4.2 chips. This strategy is also in line with my strategy improvement, which suggests being more aggressive when holding a King. Therefore, I will choose Plan 2 (Raise)."}}
{"message": "", "12_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\nIf I raise, I will put 8 more chips into the pot, making it 14 chips in total. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (45% probability), he will likely call (80% probability) or raise (20% probability). If he calls, I will win as my King matches the public card. If he raises, I will still win as my King matches the public card. The overall winning rate for his King is 45%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (55% probability), he will likely call (30% probability) or raise (70% probability). If he calls, I will lose as his Queen matches the public card. If he raises, I will still lose as his Queen matches the public card. The overall losing rate for his Queen is 55%.\n\nPlan 1 overall Winning/Lose rates: Winning rate for plan 1 is 45%; Lose rate for plan 1 is 55%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\nIf I fold, I will not put any more chips into the pot. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (45% probability), I will lose as I forfeit the game. The overall losing rate for his King is 45%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (55% probability), I will lose as I forfeit the game. The overall losing rate for his Queen is 55%.\n\nPlan 2 overall Winning/Lose rates: Winning rate for plan 2 is 0%; Lose rate for plan 2 is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\nIf I check, I will not put any more chips into the pot. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (45% probability), he will likely call (80% probability) or raise (20% probability). If he calls, I will win as my King matches the public card. If he raises, I will still win as my King matches the public card. The overall winning rate for his King is 45%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (55% probability), he will likely call (30% probability) or raise (70% probability). If he calls, I will lose as his Queen matches the public card. If he raises, I will still lose as his Queen matches the public card. The overall losing rate for his Queen is 55%.\n\nPlan 3 overall Winning/Lose rates: Winning rate for plan 3 is 45%; Lose rate for plan 3 is 55%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\nPlan1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 14. If win, the winning payoff would be 7. If lose, the lose payoff would be 7.\nPlan2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\nPlan3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\nPlan 1: 45% * 7 - 55% * 7 = -0.7\nPlan 2: 0% * 3 - 100% * 3 = -3\nPlan 3: 45% * 3 - 55% * 3 = -0.3\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 3 (Check) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (-0.3). This strategy is also in line with my strategy improvement, which is to be more conservative when holding a King."}}
{"message": "", "13_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nIf I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips. This will increase the pot to 8 chips. This is a conservative strategy that allows me to stay in the game without risking too many chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf I raise, I will increase the bet by 4 chips more than GoodGuy's current bet. This will increase the pot to 12 chips. This is a more aggressive strategy that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy and make him fold.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will forfeit the game and lose any chips I have already put in the pot. This is a defensive strategy that minimizes my losses when I believe I have a weak hand.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nIf GoodGuy holds a King, he might raise (50%) or check (50%). If he raises, I have a 50% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack, and a 50% chance of losing if the public card is a King or Queen. If he checks, I have a 100% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack, and a 0% chance of winning if the public card is a King or Queen. Overall, my winning rate is 75%, my losing rate is 25%, and my draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf GoodGuy holds a King, he might raise (50%) or check (50%). If he raises, I have a 50% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack, and a 50% chance of losing if the public card is a King or Queen. If he checks, I have a 100% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack, and a 0% chance of winning if the public card is a King or Queen. Overall, my winning rate is 75%, my losing rate is 25%, and my draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I automatically lose the game. Therefore, my winning rate is 0%, my losing rate is 100%, and my draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nAfter the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nAfter the action, Chips in the pot: 12. If win, the winning payoff would be 6. After the action, Chips in the pot: 12. If lose, the lose payoff would be 6.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nAfter the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nExpected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Losing Rate * Losing Payoff = 0.75 * 4 - 0.25 * 4 = 2\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nExpected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Losing Rate * Losing Payoff = 0.75 * 6 - 0.25 * 6 = 3\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nExpected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Losing Rate * Losing Payoff = 0 * 0 - 1 * 2 = -2\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 2: Raise is the best strategy. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement to maximize my winnings when I have a strong hand."}}
{"message": "", "13_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\nIf I raise, GoodGuy might think I have a King or a Queen. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70% probability), he might raise (50% probability) or check (50% probability). If he raises, I will lose (100% probability). If he checks, I will lose (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 70%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he might raise (50% probability) or fold (50% probability). If he raises, I will lose (100% probability). If he folds, I will win (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate is 15%, the losing rate is 15%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 1 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 15%, Losing rate is 85%, Draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\nIf I fold, GoodGuy might think I have a Jack. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70% probability), he might raise (50% probability) or check (50% probability). If he raises, I will lose (100% probability). If he checks, I will lose (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 70%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he might raise (50% probability) or fold (50% probability). If he raises, I will lose (100% probability). If he folds, I will win (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate is 15%, the losing rate is 15%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 15%, Losing rate is 85%, Draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\nIf I check, GoodGuy might think I have a Jack or a Queen. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70% probability), he might raise (50% probability) or check (50% probability). If he raises, I will lose (100% probability). If he checks, I will lose (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 70%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he might raise (50% probability) or fold (50% probability). If he raises, I will lose (100% probability). If he folds, I will win (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate is 15%, the losing rate is 15%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 15%, Losing rate is 85%, Draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 14. If win, the winning payoff would be 7. After the action, Chips in the pot: 14. If lose, the lose payoff would be 7.\n\nPlan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n\nPlan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 15% * 7 - 85% * 7 = -4.9\nPlan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 15% * 3 - 85% * 3 = -2.1\nPlan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 15% * 3 - 85% * 3 = -2.1\n\nPlan Selection: \nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 2 and Plan 3 are the best strategies to follow as they have the highest expected chips gain (-2.1). However, considering the strategy improvement, Plan 2 (Fold) is the best strategy to follow as it minimizes losses when I have a weak hand."}}
{"message": "", "14_0": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\nIf I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 2 chips, bringing the total pot to 5 chips. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely raise (80% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will lose (probability 1). If the public card is not a Queen, I will win (probability 0). Overall, the winning rate is 0, the losing rate is 0.4, and the draw rate is 0.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will draw (probability 1). If the public card is not a Queen, I will win (probability 0). Overall, the winning rate is 0, the losing rate is 0, and the draw rate is 0.18.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (20% probability), he will likely fold (70% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will win (probability 1). If the public card is not a Queen, I will win (probability 1). Overall, the winning rate is 0.14, the losing rate is 0, and the draw rate is 0.\n\nPlan 1 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 0.14, Losing rate is 0.4, Draw rate is 0.18.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf I raise, I will increase the bet by 4 chips, bringing the total pot to 7 chips. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely call (80% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will lose (probability 1). If the public card is not a Queen, I will win (probability 0). Overall, the winning rate is 0, the losing rate is 0.4, and the draw rate is 0.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely fold (40% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will win (probability 1). If the public card is not a Queen, I will win (probability 1). Overall, the winning rate is 0.12, the losing rate is 0, and the draw rate is 0.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (20% probability), he will likely fold (70% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will win (probability 1). If the public card is not a Queen, I will win (probability 1). Overall, the winning rate is 0.14, the losing rate is 0, and the draw rate is 0.\n\nPlan 2 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 0.26, Losing rate is 0.4, Draw rate is 0.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot. \n\nPlan 3 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 0, Losing rate is 1, Draw rate is 0.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: If win, the winning payoff would be 2.5 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.5 chips.\n- Plan 2: If win, the winning payoff would be 3.5 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.5 chips.\n- Plan 3: If win, the winning payoff would be 0 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1 chip.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0.14 * 2.5 - 0.4 * 2.5 = -0.65 chips\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0.26 * 3.5 - 0.4 * 3.5 = -0.49 chips\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0 * 0 - 1 * 1 = -1 chip\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (-0.49 chips). Although all plans have a negative expected chips gain, Plan 2 loses the least amount of chips on average. This strategy also aligns with my strategy improvement to be more aggressive when holding a Queen."}}
{"message": "", "14_2": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\nIf I raise, I will put 8 more chips into the pot, making the total pot 16 chips. \n\nThe winning/lose/draw rates when GoodGuy holds a Jack: \nIf GoodGuy holds a Jack (90% probability based on my belief on GoodGuy), and if he sees my raise, GoodGuy will likely fold (70% probability based on GoodGuy's behaviour pattern), which means I will win. If GoodGuy decides to call (30% probability), I will still win because my pair of Queens beats his Jack. \nOverall, the winning rate for his Jack is 100% (90% * 100%), the lose rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nThe winning/lose/draw rates when GoodGuy holds a King: \nIf GoodGuy holds a King (10% probability based on my belief on GoodGuy), and if he sees my raise, GoodGuy will likely call (80% probability) or raise (20% probability). In both cases, I will lose because his King beats my pair of Queens. \nOverall, the winning rate for his King is 0%, the lose rate is 100% (10% * 100%), and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan1 overall board_game_expert's Winning/Lose/Draw rates : \nThe Winning rate for plan 1 is 90% (100% for his Jack); Lose rate for plan 1 is 10% (100% for his King); Draw Rate for plan 1 is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Check\nIf I check, the total pot remains at 8 chips. \n\nThe winning/lose/draw rates when GoodGuy holds a Jack: \nIf GoodGuy holds a Jack (90% probability based on my belief on GoodGuy), and if he sees my check, GoodGuy will likely check as well (70% probability based on GoodGuy's behaviour pattern), which means I will win. If GoodGuy decides to raise (30% probability), I will still win because my pair of Queens beats his Jack. \nOverall, the winning rate for his Jack is 100% (90% * 100%), the lose rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nThe winning/lose/draw rates when GoodGuy holds a King: \nIf GoodGuy holds a King (10% probability based on my belief on GoodGuy), and if he sees my check, GoodGuy will likely raise (80% probability) or check (20% probability). In both cases, I will lose because his King beats my pair of Queens. \nOverall, the winning rate for his King is 0%, the lose rate is 100% (10% * 100%), and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan2 overall board_game_expert's Winning/Lose/Draw rates : \nThe Winning rate for plan 2 is 90% (100% for his Jack); Lose rate for plan 2 is 10% (100% for his King); Draw Rate for plan 2 is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\nPlan1: After the raise, Chips in the pot: 16. If win, the winning payoff would be 8 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 8 chips. \nPlan2: After the check, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning chips would be 4 chips. If lose, the lose chips would be 4 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\nPlan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 90% * 8 - 10% * 8 = 7.2 - 0.8 = 6.4 chips\nPlan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 90% * 4 - 10% * 4 = 3.6 - 0.4 = 3.2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nPlan 1 (Raise) has the highest estimated expected chips gain, so I will choose Plan 1."}}
{"message": "", "15_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\nIf I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 2 chips, bringing the total pot to 5 chips. This is a safe move that allows me to see the public card without risking too many chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf I raise, I will bet 4 more chips than GoodGuy, bringing the total pot to 7 chips. This is a more aggressive move that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, especially if he has a lower rank card.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will forfeit the game and lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot. This is a conservative move that minimizes my losses if I believe GoodGuy has a higher rank card.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nIf GoodGuy holds a King, he will likely raise (70%) or call (30%). If he raises, I will likely lose unless the public card is a Jack. If he calls, the outcome will depend on the public card. If GoodGuy holds a Queen or Jack, he will likely call (80%) or fold (20%). If he calls, the outcome will depend on the public card. If he folds, I will win. Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 30%, the losing rate is 50%, and the draw rate is 20%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf GoodGuy holds a King, he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%). If he calls, I will likely lose unless the public card is a Jack. If he raises, the outcome will depend on the public card. If GoodGuy holds a Queen or Jack, he will likely call (60%) or fold (40%). If he calls, the outcome will depend on the public card. If he folds, I will win. Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 40%, the losing rate is 40%, and the draw rate is 20%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will automatically lose, so the losing rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nIf I win, the winning payoff would be 2.5 chips. If I lose, the losing payoff would be 1 chip.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf I win, the winning payoff would be 3.5 chips. If I lose, the losing payoff would be 2 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, the losing payoff would be 1 chip.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nThe expected chips gain for this plan is 0.3 * 2.5 - 0.5 * 1 = 0.25 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nThe expected chips gain for this plan is 0.4 * 3.5 - 0.4 * 2 = 0.6 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nThe expected chips gain for this plan is -1 chip.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, Plan 2: Raise is the best strategy. This plan has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement of being more aggressive when I have a lower rank card."}}
{"message": "", "15_2": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\nIf I raise, I will put 8 more chips into the pot, making the total pot 16 chips. \n\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (70% probability), he will likely raise (60% probability) or call (40% probability). If he raises, the pot will be 32 chips. If he calls, the pot will be 24 chips. If he raises, I have a 0% chance of winning, 100% chance of losing, and 0% chance of drawing. If he calls, I have a 0% chance of winning, 100% chance of losing, and 0% chance of drawing. \n\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (30% probability), he will likely call (60% probability) or fold (40% probability). If he calls, the pot will be 24 chips. If he folds, the pot will be 16 chips. If he calls, I have a 50% chance of winning, 50% chance of losing, and 0% chance of drawing. If he folds, I have a 100% chance of winning, 0% chance of losing, and 0% chance of drawing. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\nIf I fold, I will lose the 4 chips I have already put into the pot. \n\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (70% probability), I have a 0% chance of winning, 100% chance of losing, and 0% chance of drawing. \n\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (30% probability), I have a 0% chance of winning, 100% chance of losing, and 0% chance of drawing. \n\nPlan 3: Check\nIf I check, the pot will remain at 8 chips. \n\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (70% probability), he will likely raise (60% probability) or check (40% probability). If he raises, the pot will be 16 chips. If he checks, the pot will be 8 chips. If he raises, I have a 0% chance of winning, 100% chance of losing, and 0% chance of drawing. If he checks, I have a 0% chance of winning, 100% chance of losing, and 0% chance of drawing. \n\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (30% probability), he will likely check (70% probability) or fold (30% probability). If he checks, the pot will be 8 chips. If he folds, the pot will be 8 chips. If he checks, I have a 50% chance of winning, 50% chance of losing, and 0% chance of drawing. If he folds, I have a 100% chance of winning, 0% chance of losing, and 0% chance of drawing. \n\nExpected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\nPlan 1: (0.7 * 0 * 24) - (0.7 * 1 * 24) + (0.3 * 0.5 * 24) - (0.3 * 0.5 * 24) = -12 chips\nPlan 2: (0.7 * 0 * 4) - (0.7 * 1 * 4) + (0.3 * 0 * 4) - (0.3 * 1 * 4) = -4 chips\nPlan 3: (0.7 * 0 * 8) - (0.7 * 1 * 8) + (0.3 * 0.5 * 8) - (0.3 * 0.5 * 8) = -4.8 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the expected chips gain for each plan, I should choose Plan 2: Fold. This plan has the highest expected chips gain (-4 chips), which means I will lose the least amount of chips compared to the other plans. This plan also aligns with my strategy improvement of being more cautious when I have a Queen or Jack, especially if the public card is a higher rank."}}
{"message": "", "16_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: 'Call' - This will match GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips. This is a safe strategy as it does not risk losing more chips, but it also does not increase the potential winnings.\n\nPlan 2: 'Raise' - This will increase the bet by 4 chips more than GoodGuy's current bet. This is a risky strategy as it could result in losing more chips, but it could also intimidate GoodGuy and potentially lead to a larger pot if I win.\n\nPlan 3: 'Fold' - This will forfeit the game and lose any chips I have already put into the pot. This is the least risky strategy as it guarantees not losing more chips, but it also guarantees not winning any chips.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (67% probability), he will likely raise (100% probability). I will likely lose (67% * 100% = 67% lose rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (33% probability), he will likely check (50% probability). I will likely win (33% * 50% = 16.5% win rate) or draw (33% * 50% = 16.5% draw rate).\n\nPlan 2: 'Raise'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (67% probability), he will likely call (100% probability). I will likely lose (67% * 100% = 67% lose rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (33% probability), he will likely fold (50% probability). I will likely win (33% * 50% = 16.5% win rate) or draw (33% * 50% = 16.5% draw rate).\n\nPlan 3: 'Fold'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (67% probability), I will definitely lose (67% lose rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (33% probability), I will definitely lose (33% lose rate).\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (6 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (6 chips).\n\nPlan 2: 'Raise'\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (10 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (10 chips).\n\nPlan 3: 'Fold'\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 0 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 2 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call' - (16.5% * 6 chips) - (67% * 6 chips) = -2.1 chips\nPlan 2: 'Raise' - (16.5% * 10 chips) - (67% * 10 chips) = -5 chips\nPlan 3: 'Fold' - (0% * 0 chips) - (100% * 2 chips) = -2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, the best strategy would be Plan 1: 'Call'. This strategy has the highest estimated expected chips gain (-2.1 chips) and aligns with the strategy improvement of playing it safe when holding a Queen."}}
{"message": "", "16_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, GoodGuy might think I have a King or a Queen. This could potentially confuse him and make him fold if he has a Jack.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose the chips I have already put in the pot. However, this could be a safe option if I believe GoodGuy has a King.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, GoodGuy might think I have a Queen or a Jack. This could potentially confuse him and make him raise if he has a King.\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a King (70% probability), he would call (100% probability). I would lose as his King is higher than my Queen.\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (30% probability), he would fold (100% probability). I would win as he folds.\n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 30%, the losing rate is 70%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose regardless of what card GoodGuy has.\n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy has a King (70% probability), he would check (100% probability). I would lose as his King is higher than my Queen.\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (30% probability), he would raise (100% probability). I would lose as his Jack is higher than my Queen.\n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose the chips I have already put in the pot (4 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 30% * 8 - 70% * 8 = -2.8 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -4 chips (as I would lose the chips I have already put in the pot)\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = 0% * 4 - 100% * 4 = -4 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) would result in the least loss of chips. Therefore, I would choose Plan 1. However, this plan is risky as there is a high probability that GoodGuy has a King. Therefore, I should also consider my strategy improvement and potentially change my game pattern to confuse GoodGuy in the future games."}}
{"message": "", "17_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- I can raise the bet to 6 chips. This will put pressure on GoodGuy and may cause him to fold if he has a lower-ranking card. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- I can fold my hand. This would result in a loss of 2 chips, but it may be a safe option if I believe GoodGuy has a higher-ranking card.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- I can check, which means I do not add any more chips to the pot. This would keep the pot at 4 chips and allow me to see the public card before making another decision.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a King (10% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability). This would result in a draw as we both have Kings. \n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (60% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). This would result in a win for me as my King is higher than his Queen.\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (30% probability), he will likely fold (20% probability). This would result in a win for me as he folds.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I automatically lose the round regardless of GoodGuy's card.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy has a King (10% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability). This would result in a draw as we both have Kings. \n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (60% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). This would result in a win for me as my King is higher than his Queen.\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (30% probability), he will likely check (50% probability). This would result in a win for me as my King is higher than his Jack.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 6 chips (half of the pot).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 6 chips (half of the pot).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I automatically lose 2 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 2 chips (half of the pot).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 2 chips (half of the pot).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = (0.7 * 6) - (0.3 * 6) = 2.4 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = -2 chips\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected Chips Gain = (0.7 * 2) - (0.3 * 2) = 0.8 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. This strategy also aligns with my strategy improvement of being more aggressive in my betting. Therefore, I will choose to raise the bet."}}
{"message": "", "17_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\nIf I raise, GoodGuy might think I have a King or a Queen. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (70% probability), he might call (40% probability) or fold (60% probability). If he calls, I will win (probability = 0.7 * 0.4 = 0.28). If he folds, I will also win (probability = 0.7 * 0.6 = 0.42). \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he might call (50% probability) or fold (50% probability). If he calls, I will lose (probability = 0.3 * 0.5 = 0.15). If he folds, I will win (probability = 0.3 * 0.5 = 0.15). \nOverall, the winning rate for plan 1 is 0.28 + 0.42 + 0.15 = 0.85, the losing rate is 0.15, and the draw rate is 0.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\nIf I fold, I will lose the game regardless of GoodGuy's card. The winning rate for plan 2 is 0, the losing rate is 1, and the draw rate is 0.\n\nPlan 3: Check\nIf I check, GoodGuy might think I have a Jack. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (70% probability), he might raise (60% probability) or check (40% probability). If he raises, I will call and win (probability = 0.7 * 0.6 = 0.42). If he checks, I will also win (probability = 0.7 * 0.4 = 0.28). \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he might raise (30% probability) or check (70% probability). If he raises, I will call and lose (probability = 0.3 * 0.3 = 0.09). If he checks, it will be a draw (probability = 0.3 * 0.7 = 0.21). \nOverall, the winning rate for plan 3 is 0.42 + 0.28 = 0.7, the losing rate is 0.09, and the draw rate is 0.21.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\nPlan 1: If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips). If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\nPlan 2: If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\nPlan 3: If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips). If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\nPlan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0.85 * 4 - 0.15 * 4 = 2.8 chips\nPlan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0 - 1 * 4 = -4 chips\nPlan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0.7 * 4 - 0.09 * 4 = 2.44 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy to implement in the current game."}}
{"message": "", "18_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips. This will bring the total pot to 10 chips (4 from me, 4 from GoodGuy, and 2 from the initial blinds). This action might lead GoodGuy to believe that I am holding a King or a Queen.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will increase the bet by 4 chips, making it 8 chips in total. This will bring the total pot to 14 chips (8 from me, 4 from GoodGuy, and 2 from the initial blinds). This action might lead GoodGuy to believe that I am holding a King.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will forfeit the game and lose any chips I have put in the pot. This action might lead GoodGuy to believe that I am holding a Jack.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he might raise (60% probability) or call (40% probability). If he raises, I will likely lose unless the public card is a King. If he calls, I will likely win unless the public card is a Queen or Jack. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he might call (70% probability) or raise (30% probability). If he calls, I will likely win unless the public card is a Queen. If he raises, I will likely lose unless the public card is a King. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he might check (50% probability) or call (50% probability). If he checks or calls, I will likely win unless the public card is a Jack. \n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he might raise (60% probability) or call (40% probability). If he raises, I will likely lose unless the public card is a King. If he calls, I will likely win unless the public card is a Queen or Jack. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he might call (70% probability) or raise (30% probability). If he calls, I will likely win unless the public card is a Queen. If he raises, I will likely lose unless the public card is a King. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he might check (50% probability) or call (50% probability). If he checks or calls, I will likely win unless the public card is a Jack. \n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will automatically lose the game and any chips I have put in the pot. \n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 5 chips (half of the 10-chip pot). \n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be 2 chips (the chips I have already put in the pot).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 7 chips (half of the 14-chip pot). \n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be 4 chips (the chips I have already put in the pot).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, the losing payoff would be 2 chips (the chips I have already put in the pot).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = (winning rate * winning payoff) - (losing rate * losing payoff) = (0.7 * 5) - (0.3 * 2) = 2.9 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = (winning rate * winning payoff) - (losing rate * losing payoff) = (0.7 * 7) - (0.3 * 4) = 3.9 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -2 chips (since I will automatically lose any chips I have put in the pot)\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy with an expected gain of 3.9 chips. This plan also aligns with my strategy improvement of applying pressure when holding a King or Queen. Therefore, I will choose to raise."}}
{"message": "", "18_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\n- If I raise, GoodGuy may believe I have a King or Queen. This could lead him to fold if he has a Jack, or call/raise if he has a King or Queen. I could say, \"Feeling lucky, GoodGuy?\"\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- Folding would be a surprising move given my strong hand. GoodGuy may believe I have a Jack. This could lead him to raise if he has a King or Queen. I could say, \"Not my day, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\n- If I check, GoodGuy may believe I have a Jack. This could lead him to raise if he has a King or Queen, or check if he has a Jack. I could say, \"Your move, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (30%): He will likely call (70%). I will win 0%, draw 100%, lose 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (70%): He will likely call (40%) or fold (30%). I will win 100%, draw 0%, lose 0%.\n- Overall Winning Rate: 70%, Draw Rate: 30%, Lose Rate: 0%.\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (30%): He will likely call (70%). I will win 0%, draw 0%, lose 100%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (70%): He will likely call (40%) or fold (30%). I will win 0%, draw 0%, lose 100%.\n- Overall Winning Rate: 0%, Draw Rate: 0%, Lose Rate: 100%.\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (30%): He will likely call (70%). I will win 0%, draw 100%, lose 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (70%): He will likely call (40%) or check (30%). I will win 100%, draw 0%, lose 0%.\n- Overall Winning Rate: 70%, Draw Rate: 30%, Lose Rate: 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (currently 6 chips, will be 14 after my raise and GoodGuy's call): 7 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot: 7 chips.\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 0 chips (as I folded).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 0 chips (as I folded).\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (currently 6 chips): 3 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot: 3 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\n- Expected Chips Gain: Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Lose Rate * Lose Payoff = 70% * 7 - 0% * 7 = 4.9 chips.\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- Expected Chips Gain: Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Lose Rate * Lose Payoff = 0% * 0 - 100% * 0 = 0 chips.\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\n- Expected Chips Gain: Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Lose Rate * Lose Payoff = 70% * 3 - 0% * 3 = 2.1 chips.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, the best plan would be Plan 1: 'Raise'. This plan also aligns with my strategy improvement to continue to raise or call when holding a King or Queen."}}
{"message": "", "19_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call' - This strategy involves matching GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips. This would bring the total pot to 10 chips. \n\nPlan 2: 'Raise' - This strategy involves increasing the bet by 4 chips, making the total bet 8 chips. This would bring the total pot to 14 chips.\n\nPlan 3: 'Fold' - This strategy involves forfeiting the game, losing any chips I have put in the pot. \n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (40% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability). If the public card is a King, I will lose. If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will win. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will lose. If the public card is a King or Jack, I will win. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (20% probability), he will likely fold (80% probability). If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw. If the public card is a King or Queen, I will win. \n\nPlan 2: 'Raise'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (40% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability). If the public card is a King, I will lose. If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will win. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely fold (40% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will lose. If the public card is a King or Jack, I will win. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (20% probability), he will likely fold (80% probability). If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw. If the public card is a King or Queen, I will win. \n\nPlan 3: 'Fold'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (40% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability). If I fold, I will lose. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). If I fold, I will lose. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (20% probability), he will likely fold (80% probability). If I fold, it will be a draw. \n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 5 chips (half of the pot). \n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 5 chips (half of the pot). \n\nPlan 2: 'Raise'\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 7 chips (half of the pot). \n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 7 chips (half of the pot). \n\nPlan 3: 'Fold'\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 0 chips (as I forfeit the game). \n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 2 chips (the chips I have put in the pot). \n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call' - (0.6 * 5) - (0.4 * 5) = 1 chip\nPlan 2: 'Raise' - (0.6 * 7) - (0.4 * 7) = 2.1 chips\nPlan 3: 'Fold' - (0 * 0) - (1 * 2) = -2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, Plan 2: 'Raise' is the best strategy to implement as it has the highest expected chips gain. This strategy also aligns with my strategy improvement of being more cautious when I have a weak hand and trying to read GoodGuy's actions more accurately to predict his hand."}}
{"message": "", "19_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\n- I could raise the bet to 14 chips. This would put pressure on GoodGuy, especially considering he has fewer chips left. I could say, \"I'm feeling lucky, GoodGuy. Let's see how this plays out.\"\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- I could fold my hand. This would result in a loss of the chips I've already put in the pot, but it would minimize my losses if GoodGuy has a King. I could say, \"I think I'll sit this one out, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\n- I could check, which would mean not increasing the bet. This would be a more cautious approach, allowing me to see the next public card before making a decision. I could say, \"I'm playing it safe, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he would likely raise (70% probability), resulting in a loss for me. If he holds a Queen (30% probability), he would likely fold (40% probability), resulting in a win for me. If he holds a Jack (10% probability), he would likely fold (80% probability), resulting in a win for me. Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 44%, the losing rate is 42%, and the draw rate is 14%.\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- If I fold, I automatically lose the chips I've already put in the pot. The winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he would likely raise (70% probability), resulting in a loss for me. If he holds a Queen (30% probability), he would likely call (60% probability), resulting in a potential win for me. If he holds a Jack (10% probability), he would likely call (20% probability), resulting in a potential win for me. Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 38%, the losing rate is 42%, and the draw rate is 20%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 14 chips. If I lose, the losing payoff would be 14 chips.\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- If I fold, I lose the 6 chips I've already put in the pot.\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 6 chips. If I lose, the losing payoff would be 6 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\n- Expected Chips Gain = 0.44 * 14 - 0.42 * 14 = 0.28 chips\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- Expected Chips Gain = 0 - 1 * 6 = -6 chips\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\n- Expected Chips Gain = 0.38 * 6 - 0.42 * 6 = -0.24 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1: 'Raise' is the best strategy to follow. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement to put pressure on GoodGuy when I have a potentially higher rank."}}
{"message": "", "20_0": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (33.33% probability), he will raise (100% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, it will be a draw (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate is 33.33%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 33.33%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (33.33% probability), he will call (100% probability). If the public card is a King or Jack, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will lose (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate is 33.33%, the losing rate is 33.33%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (33.33% probability), he will raise (100% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is a Jack, I will lose (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate is 33.33%, the losing rate is 33.33%, and the draw rate is 0%.\nPlan 1 overall board_game_expert's Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 100%, Losing rate is 66.66%, Draw rate is 33.33%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (33.33% probability), he will call (100% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, it will be a draw (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate is 33.33%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 33.33%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (33.33% probability), he will call (100% probability). If the public card is a King or Jack, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will lose (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate is 33.33%, the losing rate is 33.33%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (33.33% probability), he will call (100% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is a Jack, I will lose (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate is 33.33%, the losing rate is 33.33%, and the draw rate is 0%.\nPlan 2 overall board_game_expert's Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 100%, Losing rate is 66.66%, Draw rate is 33.33%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose 100% of the time. The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n- Plan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n- Plan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 1. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 100% * 2 - 66.66% * 2 = 0.67 chips\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 100% * 3 - 66.66% * 3 = 1 chip\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 0 - 100% * 1 = -1 chip\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy to implement as it has the highest expected chips gain."}}
{"message": "", "20_2": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will raise (100% probability). I will lose because his Queen matches the public card. The overall lose rate for his Queen is 50%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will fold (100% probability). I will win because my King has a higher rank. The overall win rate for his Jack is 50%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will raise (100% probability). I will lose because I fold. The overall lose rate for his Queen is 50%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will fold (100% probability). I will not lose or win because we both fold. The overall draw rate for his Jack is 50%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will raise (100% probability). I will lose because his Queen matches the public card. The overall lose rate for his Queen is 50%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will fold (100% probability). I will win because my King has a higher rank. The overall win rate for his Jack is 50%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\nPlan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\nPlan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\nPlan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\nPlan 1: 50% * 4 - 50% * 4 = 0\nPlan 2: 0% * 2 - 50% * 2 = -1\nPlan 3: 50% * 2 - 50% * 2 = 0\n\nPlan Selection: \nPlan 1 and Plan 3 both have an expected chips gain of 0, which is higher than Plan 2's expected chips gain of -1. However, considering the strategy improvement, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best choice because it aligns with the strategy improvement when I hold a King and the public card is a Queen or Jack."}}
{"message": "", "21_1": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (30% probability), he will likely raise (30% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (probability = 30% * 30% = 9%). If the public card is not a King, I will draw (probability = 30% * 70% = 21%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely raise (40% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will lose (probability = 40% * 40% = 16%). If the public card is not a Queen, I will win (probability = 40% * 60% = 24%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely raise (50% probability). If the public card is a Jack, I will lose (probability = 30% * 50% = 15%). If the public card is not a Jack, I will win (probability = 30% * 50% = 15%).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 48%, the losing rate is 31%, and the draw rate is 21%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (30% probability), he will likely call (70% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (probability = 30% * 70% = 21%). If the public card is not a King, I will draw (probability = 30% * 30% = 9%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely fold (60% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will lose (probability = 40% * 40% = 16%). If the public card is not a Queen, I will win (probability = 40% * 60% = 24%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely fold (50% probability). If the public card is a Jack, I will lose (probability = 30% * 50% = 15%). If the public card is not a Jack, I will win (probability = 30% * 50% = 15%).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 60%, the losing rate is 31%, and the draw rate is 9%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose all the chips I have put in the pot. The losing rate for Plan 3 is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n- Plan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 10. If win, the winning payoff would be 5. If lose, the lose payoff would be 5.\n- Plan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 48% * 3 - 31% * 3 = 0.51\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 60% * 5 - 31% * 5 = 1.45\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = -100% * 2 = -2\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy to implement. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with the strategy improvement of raising when holding a King."}}
{"message": "", "21_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, I can potentially win more chips if GoodGuy decides to call or raise. I can say, \"I'm confident in my hand, GoodGuy. Let's raise the stakes.\"\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If I check, I can potentially save chips if GoodGuy decides to raise. I can say, \"I'm playing it safe this round, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot. However, this could be a strategic move if I believe GoodGuy has a stronger hand. I can say, \"I'll fold this round, GoodGuy.\"\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a King (40% chance), he will likely raise (80% chance). This would result in a draw. If he has a Queen (5% chance) or a Jack (55% chance), he will likely fold (40% chance) or call (60% chance). This would result in a win for me. Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 60%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 40%.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If GoodGuy has a King (40% chance), he will likely raise (80% chance). This would result in a draw. If he has a Queen (5% chance) or a Jack (55% chance), he will likely check (70% chance) or raise (30% chance). This would result in a win for me. Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 65%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 35%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will automatically lose the chips I have already put in the pot. Therefore, the winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 12 chips (half of the pot). If I lose, the losing payoff would be 6 chips (half of the pot).\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 12 chips (half of the pot). If I lose, the losing payoff would be 6 chips (half of the pot).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 6 chips I have already put in the pot.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 60% * 12 - 0% * 6 = 7.2 chips\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 65% * 12 - 0% * 6 = 7.8 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0% * 12 - 100% * 6 = -6 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, Plan 2 (Check) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (7.8 chips). This strategy also aligns with my strategy improvement, which suggests that I should check when I hold a King and the public card is a King. Therefore, I will choose Plan 2 (Check)."}}
{"message": "", "22_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, I will put 4 more chips into the pot, making the total pot 8 chips. This will force GoodGuy to either call and match my bet, or fold and lose his initial bet.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose my initial bet of 2 chips. This is a safe option if I believe that GoodGuy has a higher-ranked card.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, the betting will end for this round and we will move on to the second round. This is a safe option if I am unsure about GoodGuy's card.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (15% probability), he will likely call (50% probability). I will likely lose (probability = 15% * 50% = 7.5%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (45% probability), he will likely call (70% probability). I will likely draw (probability = 45% * 70% = 31.5%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). I will likely win (probability = 40% * 60% = 24%).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of GoodGuy's card.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (15% probability), he will likely check (50% probability). I will likely lose (probability = 15% * 50% = 7.5%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (45% probability), he will likely check (30% probability). I will likely draw (probability = 45% * 30% = 13.5%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will likely check (40% probability). I will likely win (probability = 40% * 40% = 16%).\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (8/2 = 4 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (8/2 = 4 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose my initial bet of 2 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (4/2 = 2 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (4/2 = 2 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 24% * 4 - 7.5% * 4 = 0.66 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -2 chips (since I will lose my initial bet).\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 16% * 2 - 7.5% * 2 = 0.17 chips.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy with the highest expected chips gain. Therefore, I will choose to raise."}}
{"message": "", "22_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (28% probability), he will likely call (50% probability) or raise (50% probability). If he calls, I will lose (100% probability). If he raises, I will also lose (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (39% probability), he will likely call (70% probability) or fold (30% probability). If he calls, it will be a draw (100% probability). If he folds, I will win (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 11.7%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 27.3%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (33% probability), he will likely fold (80% probability) or call (20% probability). If he folds, I will win (100% probability). If he calls, it will be a draw (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 26.4%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 6.6%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of GoodGuy's card. Therefore, the winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (28% probability), he will likely call (50% probability) or raise (50% probability). If he calls, I will lose (100% probability). If he raises, I will also lose (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (39% probability), he will likely call (70% probability) or fold (30% probability). If he calls, it will be a draw (100% probability). If he folds, I will win (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 11.7%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 27.3%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (33% probability), he will likely fold (80% probability) or call (20% probability). If he folds, I will win (100% probability). If he calls, it will be a draw (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 26.4%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 6.6%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n- Plan 2: After the action, chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n- Plan 3: After the action, chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0.38 * 4 - 0.28 * 4 = 0.4\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0 * 2 - 1 * 2 = -2\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0.38 * 2 - 0.28 * 2 = 0.2\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy to adopt in this situation. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with the strategy improvement of raising when holding a Queen."}}
{"message": "", "23_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\nIf I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 2 chips, bringing the total pot to 5 chips. This is a conservative strategy that allows me to see the public card without risking too many chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf I raise, I will increase the bet by 4 chips, bringing the total pot to 7 chips. This is an aggressive strategy that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, especially considering his low chip count.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will forfeit the game, losing the 1 chip I have already put in the pot. This is a defensive strategy that minimizes my losses if I believe GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nIf GoodGuy has a King (50%), he will likely call or raise. If the public card is a King, I will lose (50%). If the public card is a Queen, I will win (50%). If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw (0%).\nIf GoodGuy has a Queen (50%), he will likely call. If the public card is a Queen, it will be a draw (0%). If the public card is a King or a Jack, I will win (100%).\nOverall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 75%, the losing rate is 25%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf GoodGuy has a King (50%), he will likely call or fold. If the public card is a King, I will lose (50%). If the public card is a Queen, I will win (50%). If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw (0%).\nIf GoodGuy has a Queen (50%), he will likely fold. If the public card is a Queen, it will be a draw (0%). If the public card is a King or a Jack, I will win (100%).\nOverall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 75%, the losing rate is 25%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will lose 100% of the time.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nIf I win, the winning payoff would be 2.5 chips. If I lose, the losing payoff would be 2.5 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf I win, the winning payoff would be 3.5 chips. If I lose, the losing payoff would be 3.5 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will lose 1 chip.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nExpected chips gain = 0.75 * 2.5 - 0.25 * 2.5 = 1.25 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nExpected chips gain = 0.75 * 3.5 - 0.25 * 3.5 = 1.75 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nExpected chips gain = -1 chip\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2: Raise is the best strategy. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with the strategy improvement of being more aggressive when holding a Queen."}}
{"message": "", "23_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\nI could raise the bet, putting pressure on GoodGuy. This could potentially force him to fold if he doesn't have a King, giving me the pot. However, if he does have a King, this could result in a loss for me.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\nI could fold, conceding the round to GoodGuy. This would result in a loss of the chips I've already put in the pot, but prevent further loss.\n\nPlan 3: Check\nI could check, passing the action to GoodGuy. This would allow me to see his next move before deciding on my own.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\nIf GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely raise (90% probability), resulting in a loss for me. If he holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely fold (60% probability), resulting in a win for me, or call (40% probability), resulting in a draw. Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 30%, the losing rate is 45%, and the draw rate is 20%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\nIf I fold, GoodGuy wins regardless of his card. The winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\nIf GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely raise (90% probability), resulting in a loss for me. If he holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely check (70% probability), resulting in a draw, or raise (30% probability), resulting in a loss for me. Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 65%, and the draw rate is 35%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\nAfter the action, chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\nAfter the action, chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 0 (as I can't win if I fold). If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nPlan 3: Check\nAfter the action, chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\nExpected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * lose payoff = 30% * 4 - 45% * 4 = -0.6 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\nExpected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * lose payoff = 0% * 0 - 100% * 2 = -2 chips\n\nPlan 3: Check\nExpected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * lose payoff = 0% * 2 - 65% * 2 = -1.3 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, Plan 1: Raise is the best strategy, despite the negative expected chips gain. This is because it has the highest expected chips gain compared to the other plans. This plan also aligns with the strategy improvement of being aggressive when holding a Queen."}}
{"message": "", "24_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 2 chips. This will keep the pot small and minimize my risk. I can then observe GoodGuy's reaction and adjust my strategy accordingly in the next round.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will increase the pot by 4 chips. This could potentially intimidate GoodGuy and cause him to fold, especially if he has a weak hand. However, this strategy also carries a higher risk as I could lose more chips if GoodGuy decides to call or raise.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 1 chip that I have already put in the pot. However, this strategy carries the least risk as I will not lose any more chips in this round. This could be a good strategy if I believe that GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy has a King (50% probability), he will likely call or raise (50% call, 50% raise). If he calls, I have a 50% chance of winning (if the public card is a King) and a 50% chance of losing (if the public card is not a King). If he raises, I have a 50% chance of winning (if the public card is a King) and a 50% chance of losing (if the public card is not a King).\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (35% probability), he will likely call (70% probability). If he calls, I have a 100% chance of winning as my King is higher than his Queen.\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (15% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). If he calls, I have a 100% chance of winning as my King is higher than his Jack.\n- Overall, my winning rate for Plan 1 is 50% * 50% + 35% * 70% + 15% * 60% = 52.5%. My losing rate is 50% * 50% = 25%. My draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a King (50% probability), he will likely call or raise (50% call, 50% raise). If he calls, I have a 50% chance of winning (if the public card is a King) and a 50% chance of losing (if the public card is not a King). If he raises, I have a 50% chance of winning (if the public card is a King) and a 50% chance of losing (if the public card is not a King).\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (35% probability), he will likely call (70% probability). If he calls, I have a 100% chance of winning as my King is higher than his Queen.\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (15% probability), he will likely fold (40% probability). If he folds, I win the pot.\n- Overall, my winning rate for Plan 2 is 50% * 50% + 35% * 70% + 15% * 40% = 52.5%. My losing rate is 50% * 50% = 25%. My draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I automatically lose the 1 chip that I have already put in the pot. My winning rate is 0%, my losing rate is 100%, and my draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which is (1+2+1)/2 = 2 chips. If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot, which is (1+2+1)/2 = 2 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which is (1+2+4)/2 = 3.5 chips. If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot, which is (1+2+4)/2 = 3.5 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I lose the 1 chip that I have already put in the pot. The winning payoff and the losing payoff are both 0 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 52.5% * 2 - 25% * 2 = 0.55 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 52.5% * 3.5 - 25% * 3.5 = 0.9625 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = 0 chips.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. However, this strategy also carries a higher risk. If I want to minimize my risk, I could choose Plan 1 (Call). Plan 3 (Fold) is not a good strategy as it guarantees a loss."}}
{"message": "", "24_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, GoodGuy might believe that I have a King and decide to fold, especially if he has a Queen or a Jack. This would allow me to win the pot without any further betting. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, GoodGuy would win the pot. However, this would be a safe option if I believe that GoodGuy has a Jack, as he would have a higher rank than me.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, GoodGuy might believe that I have a weak hand and decide to raise. This would allow me to call and potentially win the pot if GoodGuy does not have a Jack.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a King (35% probability), he might call (50% probability) or raise (50% probability). If he calls, I would win (50% * 35% = 17.5%). If he raises, I would lose (50% * 35% = 17.5%).\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (35% probability), he might call (70% probability) or fold (30% probability). If he calls, I would win (70% * 35% = 24.5%). If he folds, I would win (30% * 35% = 10.5%).\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (30% probability), he might call (60% probability) or raise (40% probability). If he calls, I would lose (60% * 30% = 18%). If he raises, I would lose (40% * 30% = 12%).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 52.5%, the losing rate is 47.5%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, GoodGuy would win the pot regardless of his card. Therefore, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy has a King (35% probability), he might call (50% probability) or raise (50% probability). If he calls, I would win (50% * 35% = 17.5%). If he raises, I would lose (50% * 35% = 17.5%).\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (35% probability), he might call (70% probability) or fold (30% probability). If he calls, I would win (70% * 35% = 24.5%). If he folds, I would win (30% * 35% = 10.5%).\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (30% probability), he might call (60% probability) or raise (40% probability). If he calls, I would lose (60% * 30% = 18%). If he raises, I would lose (40% * 30% = 12%).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 3 is 52.5%, the losing rate is 47.5%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 0. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 52.5% * 4 - 47.5% * 4 = 0.2 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 0% * 0 - 100% * 2 = -2 chips\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 52.5% * 2 - 47.5% * 2 = 0.1 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. This plan also aligns with my strategy improvement of being more aggressive in my betting, especially when I have a strong hand."}}
{"message": "", "25_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- This action will match the chips in the pot with GoodGuy's. It's a safe move that doesn't reveal much about my hand. \n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- This action will increase the chips in the pot by 4. It's a more aggressive move that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy and make him fold, especially if he holds a Jack.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- This action will forfeit the game, resulting in a loss of 1 chip. It's a defensive move that minimizes losses when the odds are not in my favor.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%). The winning rate is 33.33% (if the public card is a Jack), the losing rate is 66.67% (if the public card is a King or Queen), and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he will likely check (100%). The winning rate is 33.33% (if the public card is a Jack), the losing rate is 66.67% (if the public card is a Queen), and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will likely check (100%). The winning rate is 0% (if the public card is a King or Queen), the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 100% (if the public card is a Jack).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 22.22%, the losing rate is 44.44%, and the draw rate is 33.33%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%). The winning rate is 33.33% (if the public card is a Jack), the losing rate is 66.67% (if the public card is a King or Queen), and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he will likely call (60%) or raise (40%). The winning rate is 33.33% (if the public card is a Jack), the losing rate is 66.67% (if the public card is a Queen), and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will likely call (50%) or raise (50%). The winning rate is 0% (if the public card is a King or Queen), the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 100% (if the public card is a Jack).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 22.22%, the losing rate is 44.44%, and the draw rate is 33.33%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose 1 chip regardless of GoodGuy's card. The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (3 chips): 1.5 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (3 chips): 1.5 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (7 chips): 3.5 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (7 chips): 3.5 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose 1 chip.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 22.22% * 1.5 chips - 44.44% * 1.5 chips = -0.33 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 22.22% * 3.5 chips - 44.44% * 3.5 chips = -0.77 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = -1 chip.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nConsidering both the strategy improvement and the highest estimated expected chips gain, I should choose Plan 1: Call. This plan has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy to play safe when holding a Jack."}}
{"message": "", "25_2": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely call (60%) or raise (40%). If he calls, I will win as my Jack matches the public card. If he raises, I will still win as my Jack matches the public card. So, the winning rate for this plan is 100%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely fold (100%) as the public card is a Jack. So, the winning rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of GoodGuy's card. So, the losing rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely call (60%) or raise (40%). If he calls, I will win as my Jack matches the public card. If he raises, I will still win as my Jack matches the public card. So, the winning rate for this plan is 100%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely fold (100%) as the public card is a Jack. So, the winning rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n- Plan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 2. If win, the winning payoff would be 1. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n- Plan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 2. If win, the winning payoff would be 1. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 1 * 2 - 0 * 2 = 2\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 0 * 1 - 1 * 1 = -1\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 1 * 1 - 0 * 1 = 1\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. This plan also aligns with the strategy improvement as it involves raising when holding a strong hand."}}
{"message": "", "26_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips, bringing the total pot to 10 chips. This is a safe move as it does not risk any additional chips and keeps me in the game.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will add 4 more chips to the pot, bringing the total pot to 14 chips. This is a more aggressive move that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy and lead to a larger payoff if I win.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will forfeit the game and lose the 2 chips I have already put into the pot. This is the most conservative move and would be a safe choice if I believed that GoodGuy has a higher card.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (45% probability), he will likely raise (30% probability). If the public card is also a King, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will lose (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate is 13.5%, the losing rate is 31.5%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (45% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will lose (100% probability). If the public card is a Jack, I will win (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate is 31.5%, the losing rate is 31.5%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely raise (50% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will lose (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate is 5%, the losing rate is 5%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- The winning/losing/draw rates would be the same as in Plan 1, but the potential payoff would be higher due to the larger pot.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose 100% of the time, but I will only lose the 2 chips I have already put into the pot.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 5 chips (half of the 10-chip pot).\n- If I lose, I would lose 4 chips (the 2 chips I have already put into the pot plus the 2 additional chips I put in to call).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 7 chips (half of the 14-chip pot).\n- If I lose, I would lose 6 chips (the 2 chips I have already put into the pot plus the 4 additional chips I put in to raise).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose 2 chips (the 2 chips I have already put into the pot).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = (winning rate * winning payoff) - (losing rate * losing payoff) = (0.135 * 5) - (0.315 * 4) = -0.45 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = (0.135 * 7) - (0.315 * 6) = -0.75 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -2 chips (since I would lose 100% of the time)\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain for each plan, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (-0.45 chips). Although this is a negative gain, it is the least negative of the three plans. This plan also aligns with my strategy improvement, which suggests that I should call when I hold a King."}}
{"message": "", "26_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, GoodGuy might think I have a King or a Jack. This could potentially intimidate him into folding, especially if he has a Queen. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, GoodGuy might think I have a Queen or a Jack. This could potentially make him more confident in his hand, especially if he has a King. \n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, GoodGuy might think I have a Queen or a Jack. This could potentially make him more confident in his hand, especially if he has a King. \n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (70% probability), he will likely fold (80% probability). This results in a win for me.\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (20% probability), he will likely call (60% probability) or raise (40% probability). This results in a loss for me.\n- If GoodGuy has a King (10% probability), he will likely fold (80% probability). This results in a draw for me.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (70% probability), he will likely check (60% probability) or raise (40% probability). This results in a loss for me.\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (20% probability), he will likely check (60% probability) or raise (40% probability). This results in a loss for me.\n- If GoodGuy has a King (10% probability), he will likely check (60% probability) or raise (40% probability). This results in a loss for me.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (70% probability), he will likely check (60% probability) or raise (40% probability). This results in a win for me.\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (20% probability), he will likely check (60% probability) or raise (40% probability). This results in a loss for me.\n- If GoodGuy has a King (10% probability), he will likely check (60% probability) or raise (40% probability). This results in a draw for me.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 4 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 4 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 0 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 0 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 4 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 4 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = 0.7 * 4 - 0.2 * 4 = 2 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = 0 * 0 - 1 * 0 = 0 chips\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = 0.7 * 4 - 0.2 * 4 = 2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1: Raise and Plan 3: Check are the best strategies. However, considering the strategy improvement, Plan 1: Raise is the best strategy as it could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding."}}
{"message": "", "27_1": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (60% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). If the public card is a Jack, I will win (60% * 60% = 36% winning rate). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will lose (60% * 40% = 24% losing rate). \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will likely call (70% probability). If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw (40% * 70% = 28% draw rate). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will lose (40% * 30% = 12% losing rate).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 36%, the losing rate is 36%, and the draw rate is 28%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips in the pot regardless of GoodGuy's card. The losing rate for Plan 2 is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (60% probability), he will likely raise (40% probability). If the public card is a Jack, I will win (60% * 40% = 24% winning rate). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will lose (60% * 60% = 36% losing rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will likely raise (30% probability). If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw (40% * 30% = 12% draw rate). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will lose (40% * 70% = 28% losing rate).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 3 is 24%, the losing rate is 64%, and the draw rate is 12%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, chips in the pot would be 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n- Plan 2: After the action, chips in the pot would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n- Plan 3: After the action, chips in the pot would be 2. If win, the winning payoff would be 1. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 36% * 3 - 36% * 3 = 0\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0 - 100% * 1 = -1\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 24% * 1 - 64% * 1 = -0.4\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (0). Although it doesn't increase my chips, it doesn't decrease them either, which is better than the other two plans. This strategy is also consistent with my strategy improvement, which suggests being more aggressive when holding a higher-ranked card."}}
{"message": "", "27_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (60% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). If he calls, I will lose as his Queen pairs with the public card, while my Jack does not. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will likely call (70% probability). If he calls, it will be a draw as neither of our cards pair with the public card. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 4 chips in the pot regardless of GoodGuy's card. \n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (60% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). If he calls, I will lose as his Queen pairs with the public card, while my Jack does not. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will likely call (70% probability). If he calls, it will be a draw as neither of our cards pair with the public card. \n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\nPlan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\nPlan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\nPlan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\nPlan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0 * 4 - 0.6 * 4 = -2.4\nPlan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0 * 2 - 1 * 2 = -2\nPlan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0 * 2 - 0.6 * 2 = -1.2\n\nPlan Selection: \nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 3 (Check) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (-1.2). This strategy aligns with the strategy improvement of being more cautious when holding a Jack. Therefore, I will choose to 'check'."}}
{"message": "", "27_5": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (probability 65%), he will likely raise (probability 70%). I will lose as King is higher ranked than Jack. The lose rate for his King is 65% * 70% = 45.5%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 25%), he will likely call (probability 60%). I will win as Jack is higher ranked than Queen. The winning rate for his Queen is 25% * 60% = 15%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 10%), it will be a draw. The draw rate for his Jack is 10%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (probability 65%), he will likely raise (probability 70%). I will lose as King is higher ranked than Jack. The lose rate for his King is 65% * 70% = 45.5%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 25%), he will likely call (probability 60%). I will win as Jack is higher ranked than Queen. The winning rate for his Queen is 25% * 60% = 15%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 10%), it will be a draw. The draw rate for his Jack is 10%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot. The lose rate is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 16. If win, the winning payoff would be 8. If lose, the lose payoff would be 8.\n- Plan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 24. If win, the winning payoff would be 12. If lose, the lose payoff would be 12.\n- Plan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 12. If lose, the lose payoff would be 6.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 15% * 8 - 45.5% * 8 = -2.44\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 15% * 12 - 45.5% * 12 = -3.66\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = -6\n\nPlan Selection:\nConsidering both the strategy improvement and the highest estimated expected chips gain, I should select Plan 1: Call. This plan has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement to be more cautious when holding a Jack."}}
{"message": "", "28_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Raise the bet. This will put pressure on GoodGuy and potentially force him to fold if he is holding a lower-ranked card. \n\nPlan 2: Call the bet. This will keep the pot small and minimize my losses if GoodGuy is holding a higher-ranked card. \n\nPlan 3: Fold. This will minimize my losses if GoodGuy is holding a higher-ranked card. \n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise the bet. \n- If GoodGuy holds a King (25% chance), he will likely call (20% chance). I will win if the public card is not a King (66.67% chance), draw if it is a King (33.33% chance), and never lose. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% chance), he will likely call (70% chance). I will win regardless of the public card. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (25% chance), he will likely fold (100% chance). I will win regardless of the public card. \n\nPlan 2: Call the bet. \n- If GoodGuy holds a King (25% chance), he will likely raise (80% chance). I will win if the public card is not a King (66.67% chance), draw if it is a King (33.33% chance), and never lose. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% chance), he will likely raise (30% chance). I will win regardless of the public card. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (25% chance), he will likely call (100% chance). I will win regardless of the public card. \n\nPlan 3: Fold. \n- If GoodGuy holds a King (25% chance), he will win regardless of the public card. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% chance), he will win regardless of the public card. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (25% chance), he will win regardless of the public card. \n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise the bet. \n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (5 chips). \n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (5 chips). \n\nPlan 2: Call the bet. \n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (3 chips). \n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (3 chips). \n\nPlan 3: Fold. \n- If win, the winning payoff would be 0 chips. \n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 1 chip. \n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise the bet. \n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = (100% * 5 chips) - (0% * 5 chips) = 5 chips. \n\nPlan 2: Call the bet. \n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = (100% * 3 chips) - (0% * 3 chips) = 3 chips. \n\nPlan 3: Fold. \n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = (0% * 0 chips) - (100% * 1 chip) = -1 chip. \n\nPlan Selection: \n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise the bet) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (5 chips). This strategy is also in line with my strategy improvement, which is to be more aggressive when I have a strong hand. Therefore, I will choose Plan 1."}}
{"message": "", "28_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, I can potentially force GoodGuy to fold if he has a weak hand, thus winning the pot. If he calls, I still have a high chance of winning with my King.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot, but I will avoid losing more chips if GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, I can see the next public card without putting more chips into the pot. This could potentially improve my hand if the next public card is a King.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (70% probability), he will likely call (100% probability). I will win (70% * 100% = 70%).\n- If GoodGuy has a King (30% probability), he will likely call (30% probability). I will draw (30% * 30% = 9%).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of what card GoodGuy has.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (70% probability), he will likely check (100% probability). I will win (70% * 100% = 70%).\n- If GoodGuy has a King (30% probability), he will likely check (30% probability). I will draw (30% * 30% = 9%).\n\nPlan 1 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate = 70%, Lose rate = 0%, Draw rate = 9%\nPlan 2 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate = 0%, Lose rate = 100%, Draw rate = 0%\nPlan 3 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate = 70%, Lose rate = 0%, Draw rate = 9%\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\nPlan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\nPlan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 70% * 4 - 0% * 4 = 2.8\nPlan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 2 - 100% * 2 = -2\nPlan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 70% * 2 - 0% * 2 = 1.4\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy with the highest expected chips gain. This strategy is also in line with my strategy improvement to be more aggressive when I have a strong hand. Therefore, I will choose Plan 1: Raise."}}
{"message": "", "29_1": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70% probability), he will likely call (80% probability). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will lose. If the public card is a King, it will be a draw. So, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 80%, and the draw rate is 20%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely call (60% probability) or fold (40% probability). If the public card is a Queen, it will be a draw. If the public card is a King or Jack, I will win. So, the winning rate is 60%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 40%.\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 18% (0.7*0 + 0.3*60), the losing rate is 56% (0.7*80 + 0.3*0), and the draw rate is 26% (0.7*20 + 0.3*40).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70% probability), he will likely call (80% probability). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will lose. If the public card is a King, it will be a draw. So, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 80%, and the draw rate is 20%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely fold (100% probability). So, the winning rate is 100%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 30% (0.7*0 + 0.3*100), the losing rate is 56% (0.7*80 + 0.3*0), and the draw rate is 14% (0.7*20 + 0.3*0).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the game regardless of GoodGuy's cards. So, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: If win, the winning payoff would be 6 chips (half of the pot). If lose, the lose payoff would be 2 chips (half of the pot).\n- Plan 2: If win, the winning payoff would be 8 chips (half of the pot). If lose, the lose payoff would be 2 chips (half of the pot).\n- Plan 3: If lose, the lose payoff would be 2 chips (half of the pot).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 18% * 6 - 56% * 2 = -0.56 chips\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 30% * 8 - 56% * 2 = -0.32 chips\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = -100% * 2 = -2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy to implement as it has the highest expected chips gain. This strategy also aligns with the strategy improvement suggestion to continue to raise when holding a King or Queen."}}
{"message": "", "29_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (80% probability), he will likely call (80% probability). I will lose this round as his King matches the public card. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he will likely fold (40% probability) or call (60% probability). I will win this round as my Queen is higher than his Queen. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (80% probability), I will lose no additional chips this round as I have chosen to fold. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), I will lose no additional chips this round as I have chosen to fold. \n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (80% probability), he will likely call (80% probability). I will lose this round as his King matches the public card. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he will likely call (100% probability). I will win this round as my Queen is higher than his Queen. \n\nPlan 1 Expected Chips Gain: \n- Winning rate * Winning Payoff = 0.2 * 6 = 1.2 chips\n- Lose rate * Lose Payoff = 0.8 * 6 = 4.8 chips\n- Expected Chips Gain = 1.2 - 4.8 = -3.6 chips\n\nPlan 2 Expected Chips Gain: \n- Winning rate * Winning Payoff = 0 * 6 = 0 chips\n- Lose rate * Lose Payoff = 0 * 6 = 0 chips\n- Expected Chips Gain = 0 - 0 = 0 chips\n\nPlan 3 Expected Chips Gain: \n- Winning rate * Winning Payoff = 0.2 * 6 = 1.2 chips\n- Lose rate * Lose Payoff = 0.8 * 6 = 4.8 chips\n- Expected Chips Gain = 1.2 - 4.8 = -3.6 chips\n\nPlan Selection: \nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Fold) is the best strategy as it results in no loss of chips. Although this strategy does not result in any gain of chips, it minimizes the potential loss, which aligns with the strategy improvement of being more cautious when holding a Jack."}}
{"message": "", "30_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 2 chips, bringing the total pot to 5 chips. This is a safe play that allows me to see the public card without risking too many chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will increase the bet by 4 chips, bringing the total pot to 7 chips. This is a more aggressive play that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, especially if he has a weak hand.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will forfeit the game and lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot. This is a defensive play that minimizes my losses if I believe GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy has a King (70% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability). I will likely lose (70% * 70% = 49% lose rate).\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (30% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). I will likely draw (30% * 60% = 18% draw rate).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a King (70% probability), he will likely call (30% probability). I will likely lose (70% * 30% = 21% lose rate).\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (30% probability), he will likely fold (40% probability). I will likely win (30% * 40% = 12% win rate).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will automatically lose, so the lose rate is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (5/2 = 2.5 chips).\n- If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (5/2 = 2.5 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (7/2 = 3.5 chips).\n- If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (7/2 = 3.5 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 18% * 2.5 - 49% * 2.5 = -0.775 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 12% * 3.5 - 21% * 3.5 = -0.315 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -1 chip (since I will lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot)\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, Plan 2: Raise is the best strategy. Although it has a higher risk compared to Plan 1: Call, it also has a higher potential reward. Furthermore, it aligns with my strategy improvement of being more aggressive when I have a strong hand. Therefore, I will choose to raise."}}
{"message": "", "30_2": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (20% probability), he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%). If he calls, I will win (0% probability) or lose (100% probability). If he raises, I will win (0% probability) or lose (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate for his King is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely call (60%) or fold (40%). If he calls, I will win (100% probability) or lose (0% probability). If he folds, I will win (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate for his Queen is 100%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will likely fold (70%) or call (30%). If he folds, I will win (100% probability). If he calls, I will win (100% probability) or lose (0% probability). Overall, the winning rate for his Jack is 100%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 1 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: \n- Winning rate: 0% (King) + 100% (Queen) + 100% (Jack) = 70%\n- Losing rate: 100% (King) + 0% (Queen) + 0% (Jack) = 20%\n- Draw rate: 0% (King) + 0% (Queen) + 0% (Jack) = 0%\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of GoodGuy's card. Therefore, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- The analysis would be similar to Plan 1, but with a lower winning rate and a higher losing rate because I am not taking the initiative to raise.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips). If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips).\n- Plan 2: If I fold, I will lose 4 chips.\n- Plan 3: If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips). If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 70% * 8 chips - 20% * 8 chips = 4 chips\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 0 chips - 100% * 4 chips = -4 chips\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain would be less than Plan 1 because of the lower winning rate and higher losing rate.\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the above analysis, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy because it has the highest expected chips gain. Therefore, I will choose to raise."}}
{"message": "", "31_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, GoodGuy will likely raise (70%) or call (30%) if he has a King, call (60%) or fold (40%) if he has a Queen, and fold (60%) or call (40%) if he has a Jack.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, GoodGuy will win the pot regardless of his card.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, GoodGuy will likely raise (80%) or call (20%) if he has a King, call (70%) or raise (30%) if he has a Queen, and call (80%) or fold (20%) if he has a Jack.\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a King (probability 0%), I will lose (probability 100%).\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (probability 47%), I will win (probability 60%) or draw (probability 40%).\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (probability 53%), I will win (probability 100%).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of GoodGuy's card.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy has a King (probability 0%), I will lose (probability 100%).\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (probability 47%), I will win (probability 70%) or draw (probability 30%).\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (probability 53%), I will win (probability 100%).\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (6 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (6 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose 2 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = 0.53 * 6 - 0.47 * 6 = 0.36 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = -2 chips\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected Chips Gain = 0.53 * 4 - 0.47 * 4 = 0.24 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy to maximize my chips gain. This plan also aligns with my strategy improvement to continue to raise when I hold a King. Therefore, I will choose to raise in this round."}}
{"message": "", "31_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he will likely raise (70%) or call (30%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he will likely call (60%) or fold (40%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will likely fold (60%) or call (40%).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he will likely raise (80%) or call (20%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will likely call (80%) or fold (20%).\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he will likely raise (80%) or call (20%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will likely call (80%) or fold (20%).\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, I will likely win (70%), draw (20%), or lose (10%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, I will likely win (60%), draw (30%), or lose (10%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, I will likely win (80%), draw (10%), or lose (10%).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, I will likely lose (100%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, I will likely lose (100%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, I will likely lose (100%).\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, I will likely win (70%), draw (20%), or lose (10%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, I will likely win (60%), draw (30%), or lose (10%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, I will likely win (80%), draw (10%), or lose (10%).\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 4 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 4 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 0 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 2 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 2 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 2 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = 0.7 * 4 - 0.1 * 4 = 2.4 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = 0 * 0 - 1 * 2 = -2 chips\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected Chips Gain = 0.7 * 2 - 0.1 * 2 = 1.2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1: Raise is the best strategy to implement in the current game."}}
{"message": "", "31_5": {"plan": "Plan 1: 'Call'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (25% probability), he will likely raise (70%) or call (30%). If he raises, I will lose (as my King does not match the public Queen). If he calls, it will be a draw (as we both have Kings). Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 17.5% (25% * 70%), and the draw rate is 7.5% (25% * 30%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (65% probability), he will likely raise (30%) or call (70%). If he raises or calls, I will lose (as his Queen matches the public Queen). Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 65%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely raise (70%) or call (30%). If he raises or calls, I will win (as my King is higher than his Jack). Overall, the winning rate is 10%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 1 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 10%, Losing rate is 82.5%, Draw rate is 7.5%.\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of GoodGuy's card. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 0%, Losing rate is 100%, Draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 20. If win, the winning payoff would be 10. After the action, Chips in the pot: 20. If lose, the lose payoff would be 10.\n- Plan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 12. If lose, the lose payoff would be 6.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Lose Payoff = 10% * 10 - 82.5% * 10 = -7.25 chips\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Lose Payoff = 0% * 10 - 100% * 6 = -6 chips\n\nPlan Selection: \nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 2 ('Fold') is the better strategy as it results in a smaller loss of chips (-6 chips compared to -7.25 chips in Plan 1). However, considering the strategy improvement, Plan 1 ('Call') might be a better choice as it provides a chance to win or draw the game. Therefore, I will choose Plan 1 ('Call')."}}
{"message": "", "32_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- This is a safe play. By calling, I match GoodGuy's bet and we move to the next round. This could confuse GoodGuy as it doesn't reveal much about my hand.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- This is a more aggressive play. By raising, I signal to GoodGuy that I have a strong hand. This could potentially scare him into folding if he has a weaker hand.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- This is a defensive play. By folding, I forfeit the game. This is not a good option in this case as I have a King, which is the highest card.\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy has a King (20% chance), he will likely raise (80% chance). I will win if the public card is a King (33% chance), draw if it's a Queen or Jack (67% chance).\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (60% chance), he will likely call (60% chance). I will win regardless of the public card.\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (20% chance), he will likely call (70% chance). I will win regardless of the public card.\n- Overall, my winning rate is 80%, draw rate is 13%, and lose rate is 7%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a King (20% chance), he will likely raise (80% chance). I will win if the public card is a King (33% chance), draw if it's a Queen or Jack (67% chance).\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (60% chance), he will likely fold (40% chance). I will win regardless of the public card.\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (20% chance), he will likely fold (40% chance). I will win regardless of the public card.\n- Overall, my winning rate is 90%, draw rate is 7%, and lose rate is 3%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I automatically lose. So, my lose rate is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (3 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (3 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (5 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (5 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I lose 1 chip.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 80% * 3 - 7% * 3 = 2.19 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 90% * 5 - 3% * 5 = 4.35 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -1 chip\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement of raising when I hold a King."}}
{"message": "", "32_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- I will say, \"I'm feeling confident, GoodGuy. Let's raise the stakes.\"\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- I will say, \"I think I'll sit this one out, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- I will remain silent and check.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely raise (80% probability). This would result in a win for me (24% overall probability), as my King beats his Queen. If he calls (20% probability), this would also result in a win for me (6% overall probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (70% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). This would result in a win for me (42% overall probability), as my King beats his Jack. If he folds (40% probability), this would also result in a win for me (28% overall probability).\n- Overall winning rate for Plan 1: 100%\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely raise (80% probability). This would result in a loss for me (24% overall probability). If he calls (20% probability), this would also result in a loss for me (6% overall probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (70% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). This would result in a loss for me (42% overall probability). If he folds (40% probability), this would result in a draw for me (28% overall probability).\n- Overall winning rate for Plan 2: 0%\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely raise (80% probability). This would result in a win for me (24% overall probability), as my King beats his Queen. If he calls (20% probability), this would also result in a win for me (6% overall probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (70% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). This would result in a win for me (42% overall probability). If he folds (40% probability), this would also result in a win for me (28% overall probability).\n- Overall winning rate for Plan 3: 100%\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 12. If win, the winning payoff would be 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 6.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = 100% * 6 - 0% * 6 = 6\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 2 - 100% * 2 = -2\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected Chips Gain = 100% * 2 - 0% * 2 = 2\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy to implement in the current game."}}
{"message": "", "33_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips, bringing the total pot to 10 chips. This is a conservative strategy that allows me to see the public card without risking too many chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will increase the bet by 4 chips, bringing the total pot to 14 chips. This is an aggressive strategy that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, especially if he is holding a Jack.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will forfeit the round and lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot. This is a defensive strategy that minimizes my losses if I believe that GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (90% probability), he will likely raise (80% probability). I will likely lose (80% * 90% = 72% lose rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely fold (40% probability). I will likely win (40% * 10% = 4% win rate).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 4%, the lose rate is 72%, and the draw rate is 24%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (90% probability), he will likely call (20% probability). I will likely lose (20% * 90% = 18% lose rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely fold (40% probability). I will likely win (40% * 10% = 4% win rate).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 4%, the lose rate is 18%, and the draw rate is 78%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will automatically lose the round. The lose rate for Plan 3 is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- After the action, chips in the pot: 10. If win, the winning payoff would be 5 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 5 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- After the action, chips in the pot: 14. If win, the winning payoff would be 7 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 7 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- After the action, chips in the pot: 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 4% * 5 - 72% * 5 = -3.4 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = 4% * 7 - 18% * 7 = -0.98 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -100% * 3 = -3 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement of occasionally bluffing to keep GoodGuy off balance."}}
{"message": "", "33_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, GoodGuy might believe that I have a strong hand. This could pressure him into folding, especially given his low chip count. However, if he holds a King, he might call or raise, which could lead to a loss for me. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose the chips I have already put into the pot. However, this could be a safe option if I believe that GoodGuy holds a King.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, I would not put any additional chips into the pot. This could be a good option if I want to see GoodGuy's next action without risking any more chips.\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (40% probability), he might call (80% probability) or raise (20% probability). If he calls or raises, I would lose (100% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), it would be a draw (100% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (20% probability), he might fold (60% probability) or call (40% probability). If he folds, I would win (100% probability). If he calls, I would win (100% probability).\n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 20%, the losing rate is 40%, and the draw rate is 40%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose regardless of GoodGuy's card. Therefore, the losing rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (40% probability), he might call (80% probability) or raise (20% probability). If he calls or raises, I would lose (100% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), it would be a draw (100% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (20% probability), he might fold (60% probability) or call (40% probability). If he folds, I would win (100% probability). If he calls, I would win (100% probability).\n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 20%, the losing rate is 40%, and the draw rate is 40%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 9 chips.\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 9 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose the chips I have already put into the pot, which is 6 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 6 chips.\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 6 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- The expected chips gain for this plan is 20% * 9 chips - 40% * 9 chips = -1.8 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- The expected chips gain for this plan is -6 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- The expected chips gain for this plan is 20% * 6 chips - 40% * 6 chips = -1.2 chips.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 3 (Check) is the best plan as it has the highest expected chips gain. This plan also aligns with my strategy improvement of being more conservative when I have a weak hand. Therefore, I will choose Plan 3 (Check)."}}
{"message": "", "34_1": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (14% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will lose. If the public card is a Jack, I will win. Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 14% * 30% = 4.2%, the losing rate is 14% * 70% = 9.8%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (29% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will lose. If the public card is a King, I will win. Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 29% * 40% = 11.6%, the losing rate is 29% * 60% = 17.4%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (57% probability), he will likely call (80% probability). If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw. If the public card is a King or Queen, I will lose. Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 57% * 80% = 45.6%, and the draw rate is 57% * 20% = 11.4%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips in the pot regardless of GoodGuy's card or the public card. The winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (14% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will lose. If the public card is a Jack, I will win. Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 14% * 30% = 4.2%, the losing rate is 14% * 70% = 9.8%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (29% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will lose. If the public card is a King, I will win. Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 29% * 40% = 11.6%, the losing rate is 29% * 60% = 17.4%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (57% probability), he will likely call (80% probability). If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw. If the public card is a King or Queen, I will lose. Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 57% * 80% = 45.6%, and the draw rate is 57% * 20% = 11.4%.\n\nPlan 1 Expected Chips Gain: Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 4.2% * 2 - 9.8% * 2 = -0.112 chips\nPlan 2 Expected Chips Gain: 0% * 2 - 100% * 2 = -2 chips\nPlan 3 Expected Chips Gain: 4.2% * 2 - 9.8% * 2 = -0.112 chips\n\nPlan Selection: Based on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 and Plan 3 are the best strategies. However, considering the strategy improvement, I should be more cautious when I have a Jack. Therefore, I will choose Plan 3: Check."}}
{"message": "", "34_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (55% probability), he will likely raise (80% probability). I will lose as King is higher than my Jack. If he calls (20% probability), I will also lose. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (45% probability), he will likely fold (30% probability). I will win as my Jack is higher than his folded hand. If he calls (70% probability), I will lose as Queen is higher than my Jack. Overall, the winning rate is 30%, the losing rate is 70%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (55% probability), he will likely raise (80% probability). I will lose as King is higher than my Jack. If he calls (20% probability), I will also lose. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (45% probability), he will likely fold (30% probability). I will win as my Jack is higher than his folded hand. If he calls (70% probability), I will lose as Queen is higher than my Jack. Overall, the winning rate is 30%, the losing rate is 70%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the game regardless of GoodGuy's cards. The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips). If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n- Plan 2: If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (6 chips). If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (6 chips).\n- Plan 3: If I fold, I will lose the game and the losing payoff would be the chips I have put into the pot (2 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0.3 * 4 - 1 * 4 = -4 chips\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0.3 * 6 - 1 * 6 = -6 chips\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0 - 1 * 2 = -2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nConsidering both the strategy improvement and the highest estimated expected chips gain, I should select Plan 3: Fold. This plan has the highest expected chips gain (-2 chips) and aligns with my strategy improvement to be more cautious when I have a Jack and the public card is higher."}}
{"message": "", "35_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nGiven that I have a Jack and GoodGuy has only 6 chips left, calling would be a safe move. This would match the amount of chips GoodGuy has put in the pot and move the game to the next round.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nRaising would put pressure on GoodGuy, especially considering he has only 6 chips left. However, this move is risky as I only hold a Jack.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nFolding would mean giving up this round. Considering I have a significant chip lead and only hold a Jack, this could be a safe move to maintain my lead.\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nIf GoodGuy holds a King (35%), he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%). If he holds a Queen (30%), he will likely raise (60%) or call (40%). If he holds a Jack (35%), he will likely call (60%) or fold (40%). Therefore, the overall winning rate for this plan is 35%, the losing rate is 30%, and the draw rate is 35%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf GoodGuy holds a King (35%), he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%). If he holds a Queen (30%), he will likely raise (60%) or call (40%). If he holds a Jack (35%), he will likely call (60%) or fold (40%). Therefore, the overall winning rate for this plan is 30%, the losing rate is 35%, and the draw rate is 35%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I automatically lose this round. Therefore, the overall winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nAfter the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nAfter the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nAfter the action, Chips in the pot: 3. If win, the winning payoff would be 0. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.5.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nExpected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 35% * 2 - 30% * 2 = 0.1\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nExpected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 30% * 3 - 35% * 3 = -0.15\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nExpected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 0% * 0 - 100% * 1.5 = -1.5\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Call) would be the best strategy to implement in this situation."}}
{"message": "", "35_2": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (60% probability), he will likely call (60%) or fold (40%). If he calls, we will draw. If he folds, I will win. Overall, the winning rate is 24% (60%*40%), the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 36% (60%*60%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he will likely raise (60%) or call (40%). If he raises or calls, I will lose. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 20% (20%*100%), and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (20% probability), he will likely raise (70%) or call (30%). If he raises or calls, I will lose. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 20% (20%*100%), and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of GoodGuy's card. The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (60% probability), he will likely check (60%) or raise (40%). If he checks, we will draw. If he raises, I will lose. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 24% (60%*40%), and the draw rate is 36% (60%*60%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he will likely raise (60%) or check (40%). If he raises or checks, I will lose. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 20% (20%*100%), and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (20% probability), he will likely raise (70%) or check (30%). If he raises or checks, I will lose. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 20% (20%*100%), and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan1: After the action, Chips in the pot: If win, the winning payoff would be 3 (half of the pot). If lose, the lose payoff would be 2 (half of the pot).\nPlan2: After the action, Chips in the pot: If lose, the lose payoff would be 2 (half of the pot).\nPlan3: After the action, Chips in the pot: If win, the winning payoff would be 2 (half of the pot). If lose, the lose payoff would be 2 (half of the pot).\n\nExpected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: 24% * 3 - 40% * 2 = 0.12 - 0.8 = -0.68\n- Plan 2: 0% * 0 - 100% * 2 = -2\n- Plan 3: 0% * 2 - 44% * 2 = -0.88\n\nPlan Selection: Based on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (-0.68). Although it is negative, it is the least negative among all the plans. Therefore, I will choose to raise."}}
{"message": "", "36_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips, bringing the total pot to 10 chips. This action does not reveal much about my hand, which could confuse GoodGuy.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will put 8 chips into the pot, bringing the total pot to 14 chips. This action could indicate that I have a strong hand, which could intimidate GoodGuy.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put into the pot. This action would end the game immediately, which could be a good strategy if I believe that GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely raise (80% probability). I will likely lose (80% * 50% = 40% lose rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely call (70% probability). I will likely draw (70% * 30% = 21% draw rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (20% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). I will likely win (60% * 20% = 12% win rate).\n- Overall, the win/draw/lose rates for Plan 1 are 12%/21%/40%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely call (20% probability). I will likely lose (20% * 50% = 10% lose rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely raise (30% probability). I will likely draw (30% * 30% = 9% draw rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (20% probability), he will likely raise (40% probability). I will likely win (40% * 20% = 8% win rate).\n- Overall, the win/draw/lose rates for Plan 2 are 8%/9%/10%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the game immediately. The lose rate for Plan 3 is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 5 chips (half of the 10-chip pot).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 5 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 7 chips (half of the 14-chip pot).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 7 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put into the pot.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = 12% * 5 chips - 40% * 5 chips = -1.4 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = 8% * 7 chips - 10% * 7 chips = -0.14 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy, followed by Plan 1 (Call), and then Plan 3 (Fold). However, considering the strategy improvement, I should consider folding if GoodGuy raises the bet, especially if the public card does not match my card. Therefore, I will choose Plan 1 (Call) as my strategy for this round."}}
{"message": "", "36_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\n- If I raise, I can potentially pressure GoodGuy into folding due to his low number of remaining chips. This could lead to a quick win for this round. However, if GoodGuy holds a King, this could backfire as he would win the round.\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- If I fold, I would lose the chips I have already put into the pot. However, this could be a safer option if I believe that GoodGuy holds a King.\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\n- If I check, I would not add any additional chips to the pot. This could be a good option if I want to see GoodGuy's next move without risking any more chips.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he would likely raise (90% probability). I would lose this round as his King would beat my Queen. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he would likely call (70% probability). I would win this round as my Queen would tie with his Queen and the public card is a King.\n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 28% (40% * 70%), the losing rate is 54% (60% * 90%), and the draw rate is 18% (remaining probability).\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- If I fold, I would lose the round regardless of GoodGuy's card. Therefore, the losing rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he would likely raise (90% probability). I would lose this round as his King would beat my Queen. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he would likely check (30% probability). I would win this round as my Queen would tie with his Queen and the public card is a King.\n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 12% (40% * 30%), the losing rate is 54% (60% * 90%), and the draw rate is 34% (remaining probability).\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\n- After the action, chips in the pot would be 12. If win, the winning payoff would be 6 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 6 chips.\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- After the action, chips in the pot would remain at 8. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4 chips.\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\n- After the action, chips in the pot would remain at 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 28% * 6 - 54% * 6 = -1.56 chips\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- Expected chips gain = -100% * 4 = -4 chips\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 12% * 4 - 54% * 4 = -1.68 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1: 'Raise' has the highest expected chips gain. Therefore, I should choose to 'Raise'. However, considering the strategy improvement, I should also consider the possibility of folding if GoodGuy raises the bet, especially if the public card does not match my card."}}
{"message": "", "37_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 2 chips. This is a safe play that doesn't risk too much. \n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will increase the bet by 4 chips. This is a more aggressive play that could potentially lead to higher winnings, but also higher losses.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will forfeit the game. This is a defensive play that minimizes losses, but also gives up any potential winnings.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (35%), he will likely raise (70%), leading to a 24.5% chance of winning, 10.5% chance of losing, and 0% chance of drawing.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20%), he will likely call (60%), leading to a 12% chance of winning, 8% chance of losing, and 0% chance of drawing.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (45%), he will likely call (80%), leading to a 36% chance of winning, 9% chance of losing, and 0% chance of drawing.\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 72.5%, the losing rate is 27.5%, and the drawing rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (35%), he will likely raise (70%), leading to a 24.5% chance of winning, 10.5% chance of losing, and 0% chance of drawing.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20%), he will likely call (60%), leading to a 12% chance of winning, 8% chance of losing, and 0% chance of drawing.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (45%), he will likely fold (20%), leading to a 9% chance of winning, 36% chance of losing, and 0% chance of drawing.\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 45.5%, the losing rate is 54.5%, and the drawing rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will forfeit the game, leading to a 0% chance of winning, 100% chance of losing, and 0% chance of drawing.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which is 3 chips.\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot, which is 3 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which is 7 chips.\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot, which is 7 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will forfeit the game, leading to a losing payoff of 1 chip.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Losing Rate * Losing Payoff = 72.5% * 3 - 27.5% * 3 = 1.35 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Losing Rate * Losing Payoff = 45.5% * 7 - 54.5% * 7 = -0.63 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Losing Rate * Losing Payoff = 0% * 0 - 100% * 1 = -1 chip\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy, followed by Plan 2 (Raise), and Plan 3 (Fold). Therefore, I will choose to call."}}
{"message": "", "37_2": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will fold (30% probability). I will win because my Jack is lower than the public Queen. The overall winning rate for his Queen is 50% * 30% = 15%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will fold (80% probability). I will win because my Jack is the same as his Jack. The overall winning rate for his Jack is 50% * 80% = 40%.\nPlan 1 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate for plan 1 is 15% + 40% = 55%; Lose rate for plan 1 is 0%; Draw Rate for plan 1 is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will check (100% probability). I will lose because my Jack is lower than the public Queen. The overall lose rate for his Queen is 50% * 100% = 50%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will check (100% probability). It will be a draw because my Jack is the same as his Jack. The overall draw rate for his Jack is 50% * 100% = 50%.\nPlan 2 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate for plan 2 is 0%; Lose rate for plan 2 is 50%; Draw Rate for plan 2 is 50%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will check (100% probability). I will lose because my Jack is lower than the public Queen. The overall lose rate for his Queen is 50% * 100% = 50%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will check (100% probability). It will be a draw because my Jack is the same as his Jack. The overall draw rate for his Jack is 50% * 100% = 50%.\nPlan 3 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate for plan 3 is 0%; Lose rate for plan 3 is 50%; Draw Rate for plan 3 is 50%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\nPlan1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\nPlan2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\nPlan3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\nPlan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 55% * 3 - 0% * 3 = 1.65\nPlan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 2 - 50% * 2 = -1\nPlan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 2 - 50% * 2 = -1\n\nPlan Selection: \nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy to implement as it has the highest expected chips gain."}}
{"message": "", "38_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- This action is consistent with my strategy improvement and GoodGuy's guess on my game pattern when I hold a King. It also allows me to potentially win more chips if GoodGuy decides to call or raise.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- This action might confuse GoodGuy as it is not consistent with his guess on my game pattern when I hold a King. It also minimizes my risk as I don't put more chips into the pot.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- This action is not recommended as I hold a King, which is the highest rank in Leduc Hold'em Poker Limit. However, it could be used as a bluffing strategy to confuse GoodGuy.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (70% probability), he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%). If he calls, I will likely win (70%) or draw (30%). If he raises, I will likely win (70%) or draw (30%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely call (50%) or raise (50%). If he calls, I will likely win (80%) or draw (20%). If he raises, I will likely win (80%) or draw (20%).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 75%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 25%.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (70% probability), he will likely check (100%). I will likely win (70%) or draw (30%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely check (100%). I will likely win (80%) or draw (20%).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 73%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 27%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the game regardless of GoodGuy's card. Therefore, the winning rate for Plan 3 is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- After the action, chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- After the action, chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- After the action, chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 0. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 75% * 3 - 0% * 3 = 2.25\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 73% * 2 - 0% * 2 = 1.46\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0% * 0 - 100% * 2 = -2\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. This plan is also consistent with my strategy improvement and GoodGuy's guess on my game pattern when I hold a King. Therefore, I will choose to raise in this round."}}
{"message": "", "38_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- I can say, \"I'm feeling confident, GoodGuy. Let's raise the stakes.\"\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- I can say, \"Let's take it slow, GoodGuy. I'll check.\"\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- I can say, \"I'm not feeling this round, GoodGuy. I'll fold.\"\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (58.33%), he will likely fold (60%) or call (40%). I will win in both cases as my King matches the public card.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (41.67%), he will likely fold (80%) or call (20%). I will win in both cases as my King matches the public card.\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 100%.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (58.33%), he will likely fold (60%) or call (40%). I will win in both cases as my King matches the public card.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (41.67%), he will likely fold (80%) or call (20%). I will win in both cases as my King matches the public card.\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of GoodGuy's card. The losing rate for Plan 3 is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4.\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2.\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2.\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 1 * 4 - 0 * 4 = 4\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 1 * 2 - 0 * 2 = 2\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 0 * 2 - 1 * 2 = -2\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. This strategy also aligns with my strategy improvement which suggests raising when holding a King and the public card is lower than my card. Therefore, I will choose Plan 1 (Raise)."}}
{"message": "", "39_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 2 chips, bringing the total pot to 5 chips. This is a safe move as it does not risk too many chips and allows me to see the public card in the next round.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will add 4 chips to the pot, bringing the total pot to 7 chips. This is a more aggressive move that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, especially if he has a lower card.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot. This is the most conservative move and guarantees that I will not lose any more chips in this round.\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy has a King (60% probability), he will likely raise (60% probability). I will likely lose (60% * 60% = 36% lose rate).\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (50% probability), he will likely call (50% probability). I will likely lose (50% * 50% = 25% lose rate).\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (70% probability), he will likely call (70% probability). This will result in a draw (70% * 70% = 49% draw rate).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 0%, the lose rate is 61%, and the draw rate is 49%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a King (60% probability), he will likely call (40% probability). I will likely lose (60% * 40% = 24% lose rate).\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (50% probability), he will likely raise (50% probability). I will likely lose (50% * 50% = 25% lose rate).\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (70% probability), he will likely fold (30% probability). I will likely win (70% * 30% = 21% win rate).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 21%, the lose rate is 49%, and the draw rate is 30%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will automatically lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot. The lose rate for Plan 3 is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (5/2 = 2.5 chips).\n- If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (5/2 = 2.5 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (7/2 = 3.5 chips).\n- If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (7/2 = 3.5 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 0% * 2.5 - 61% * 2.5 = -1.525 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = 21% * 3.5 - 49% * 3.5 = -0.98 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -1 chip\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (-0.98 chips). Although this plan still results in a loss of chips, it is the least loss compared to the other plans. Therefore, I will choose to raise."}}
{"message": "", "39_2": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (70% probability), he will likely fold (100% probability). This would result in a win for me, as my Jack would beat his Jack. The winning rate for his Jack is 70%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely raise (100% probability). This would result in a loss for me, as his Queen would beat my Jack. The losing rate for his Queen is 30%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (70% probability), he will likely check (100% probability). This would result in a draw, as my Jack would match his Jack. The draw rate for his Jack is 70%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely raise (100% probability). This would result in a loss for me, as his Queen would beat my Jack. The losing rate for his Queen is 30%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (70% probability), he will likely check (100% probability). This would result in a draw, as my Jack would match his Jack. The draw rate for his Jack is 70%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely raise (100% probability). This would result in a loss for me, as his Queen would beat my Jack. The losing rate for his Queen is 30%.\n\nPlan1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\nPlan2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\nPlan3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\nPlan 1: 70% * 4 - 30% * 4 = 1.6\nPlan 2: 0% * 2 - 30% * 2 = -0.6\nPlan 3: 0% * 2 - 30% * 2 = -0.6\n\nPlan Selection: Based on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy to implement in this situation."}}
{"message": "", "39_4": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (55% probability), he will likely call (70% probability). If he calls, I will lose as his King is higher than my Jack. The lose rate for his King is 0.55 * 0.7 = 0.385. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (45% probability), he will likely raise (100% probability). If he raises, I will lose as his Queen matches the public card. The lose rate for his Queen is 0.45 * 1 = 0.45. \n- Overall, the winning rate for plan 1 is 0, the lose rate is 0.385 + 0.45 = 0.835, and the draw rate is 0. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot, but I won't lose any more chips. The winning rate, lose rate, and draw rate for this plan are all 0. \n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, chips in the pot: 24. If win, the winning payoff would be 12. If lose, the lose payoff would be 12.\n- Plan 2: After the action, chips in the pot: 20. If win, the winning payoff would be 10. If lose, the lose payoff would be 10.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = winning rate * Winning Payoff - lose rate * Lose Payoff = 0 * 12 - 0.835 * 12 = -10.02\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = winning rate * Winning Payoff - lose rate * Lose Payoff = 0 * 10 - 0 * 10 = 0\n\nPlan Selection: \nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, Plan 2 (Fold) is the better strategy. Although I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot, I won't lose any more chips. This strategy also aligns with the strategy improvement suggestion to fold when I hold a Jack and the public card is a King or Queen."}}
{"message": "", "40_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips, bringing the total pot to 10 chips. This is a safe move as it does not risk too many chips and allows me to see the public card in the next round.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will put 4 more chips into the pot, bringing the total pot to 12 chips. This is a more aggressive move and could potentially scare GoodGuy into folding, especially if he is holding a Jack.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put into the pot. This is the most conservative move and would be the best choice if I believe that GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (80% probability), he will likely call in the second round (70% probability). If the public card is a King, I will lose. If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I have a chance to win. Overall, the winning rate is 30%, the losing rate is 50%, and the draw rate is 20%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (80% probability), he will likely fold in the second round (60% probability). If the public card is a King, I will lose. If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I have a chance to win. Overall, the winning rate is 40%, the losing rate is 40%, and the draw rate is 20%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put into the pot. The losing rate is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 5 chips (half of the 10-chip pot). If I lose, the losing payoff would be 2 chips (the amount I have already put into the pot).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 6 chips (half of the 12-chip pot). If I lose, the losing payoff would be 6 chips (the amount I have put into the pot).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put into the pot. The losing payoff is 2 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 30% * 5 chips - 50% * 2 chips = 0.5 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 40% * 6 chips - 40% * 6 chips = 0 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -2 chips (as I will lose the 2 chips I have already put into the pot)\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. This plan also aligns with my strategy improvement, which suggests calling when I hold a Jack and the public card is not a Jack. Therefore, I will choose to call."}}
{"message": "", "40_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\nIf I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 8 chips, bringing the total chips in the pot to 20. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (90% probability), he will likely check (70% probability). I will lose as his pair of Kings beats my single Jack. The lose rate is 63% (0.9*0.7). If he raises (30% probability), I will also lose. The lose rate is 27% (0.9*0.3). The overall lose rate for his King is 90%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (10% probability), he will likely call (80% probability). I will win as my single Jack beats his single Queen. The win rate is 8% (0.1*0.8). If he raises (20% probability), I will also win. The win rate is 2% (0.1*0.2). The overall win rate for his Queen is 10%.\n\nPlan 1 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: The Winning rate for plan 1 is 10%; Lose rate for plan 1 is 90%; Draw Rate for plan 1 is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf I raise, I will increase the bet by 8 chips, bringing the total chips in the pot to 24.\n\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (90% probability), he will likely fold (60% probability). I will win as he forfeits the game. The win rate is 54% (0.9*0.6). If he calls (40% probability), I will lose. The lose rate is 36% (0.9*0.4). The overall win rate for his King is 54%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (10% probability), he will likely call (80% probability). I will win as my single Jack beats his single Queen. The win rate is 8% (0.1*0.8). If he folds (20% probability), I will also win. The win rate is 2% (0.1*0.2). The overall win rate for his Queen is 10%.\n\nPlan 2 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: The Winning rate for plan 2 is 64%; Lose rate for plan 2 is 36%; Draw Rate for plan 2 is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will forfeit the game and lose any chips I have already put into the pot. The lose rate for plan 3 is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\nPlan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 20. If win, the winning payoff would be 10. After the action, Chips in the pot: 20. If lose, the lose payoff would be 10.\nPlan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 24. If win, the winning payoff would be 12. After the action, Chips in the pot: 24. If lose, the lose payoff would be 12.\nPlan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 12. If lose, the lose payoff would be 6.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\nPlan 1: 10% * 10 - 90% * 10 = -8\nPlan 2: 64% * 12 - 36% * 12 = 3.36\nPlan 3: -100% * 6 = -6\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain."}}
{"message": "", "41_1": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (80% probability), he will likely raise (90% probability). If the public card is a King, I will lose (100% probability). If the public card is not a King, I have a 50% chance of winning (if the public card is a Jack) and a 50% chance of losing (if the public card is a Queen). Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 40%, the losing rate is 60%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (10% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will lose (100% probability). If the public card is not a Queen, I have a 50% chance of winning (if the public card is a Jack) and a 50% chance of losing (if the public card is a King). Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 5%, the losing rate is 5%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely check (60% probability). If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw (100% probability). If the public card is not a Jack, I have a 50% chance of winning (if the public card is a King) and a 50% chance of losing (if the public card is a Queen). Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 5%, the losing rate is 5%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (80% probability), he will likely call (70% probability). If the public card is a King, I will lose (100% probability). If the public card is not a King, I have a 50% chance of winning (if the public card is a Jack) and a 50% chance of losing (if the public card is a Queen). Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 35%, the losing rate is 45%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (10% probability), he will likely fold (60% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will lose (100% probability). If the public card is not a Queen, I have a 50% chance of winning (if the public card is a Jack) and a 50% chance of losing (if the public card is a King). Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 3%, the losing rate is 7%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely fold (80% probability). If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw (100% probability). If the public card is not a Jack, I have a 50% chance of winning (if the public card is a King) and a 50% chance of losing (if the public card is a Queen). Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 4%, the losing rate is 6%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose 100% of the time. The winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: If I win, the winning payoff would be 6 chips. If I lose, the losing payoff would be 2 chips.\n- Plan 2: If I win, the winning payoff would be 8 chips. If I lose, the losing payoff would be 4 chips.\n- Plan 3: If I fold, I will lose 2 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: (40% * 6) - (60% * 2) = 0.4 chips\n- Plan 2: (42% * 8) - (58% * 4) = 0.16 chips\n- Plan 3: 0 - (100% * 2) = -2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy to adopt in this situation."}}
{"message": "", "41_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 8 chips. This will leave me with 78 chips. I can say, \"I'm not backing down, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will increase the bet by 8 chips. This will leave me with 70 chips. I can say, \"I'm feeling lucky, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will forfeit the game and lose the 4 chips I have already put into the pot. This will leave me with 86 chips. I can say, \"You win this round, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy has a King (90% probability), he will likely check (60% probability). I will lose (90% * 60% = 54% lose rate).\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (10% probability), he will likely check (50% probability). I will win (10% * 50% = 5% win rate).\n- Overall, the win rate for Plan 1 is 5%, the lose rate is 54%, and the draw rate is 41%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a King (90% probability), he will likely call (70% probability). I will lose (90% * 70% = 63% lose rate).\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (10% probability), he will likely fold (80% probability). I will win (10% * 80% = 8% win rate).\n- Overall, the win rate for Plan 2 is 8%, the lose rate is 63%, and the draw rate is 29%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the game regardless of GoodGuy's cards. The lose rate for Plan 3 is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (12 chips).\n- If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (12 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (20 chips).\n- If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (20 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 4 chips I have already put into the pot.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = win rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 5% * 12 - 54% * 12 = -5.88 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = win rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 8% * 20 - 63% * 20 = -11 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -4 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy. Although I am expected to lose chips in all plans, Plan 1 minimizes my expected loss. Therefore, I will choose to call."}}
{"message": "", "42_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips, bringing my total chips in the pot to 4 and leaving me with 76 chips. This action might lead GoodGuy to believe that I have a moderate hand, such as a Queen or a Jack.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will increase the bet by 4 chips, bringing my total chips in the pot to 6 and leaving me with 74 chips. This action might lead GoodGuy to believe that I have a strong hand, such as a King or a Queen.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will forfeit the round and lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot, leaving me with 78 chips. This action might lead GoodGuy to believe that I have a weak hand, such as a Jack.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70% probability), he might raise (80% probability) or call (20% probability). If he raises, I will lose (80% * 70% = 56% lose rate). If he calls, I will win if the public card is a Queen (20% * 70% = 14% win rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he might call (70% probability) or raise (30% probability). If he calls, it will be a draw (70% * 30% = 21% draw rate). If he raises, I will lose (30% * 30% = 9% lose rate).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 14%, the lose rate is 65%, and the draw rate is 21%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70% probability), he might raise (80% probability) or call (20% probability). If he raises, I will lose (80% * 70% = 56% lose rate). If he calls, I will win if the public card is a Queen (20% * 70% = 14% win rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he might call (70% probability) or raise (30% probability). If he calls, it will be a draw (70% * 30% = 21% draw rate). If he raises, I will lose (30% * 30% = 9% lose rate).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 14%, the lose rate is 65%, and the draw rate is 21%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the round regardless of GoodGuy's card or action. The lose rate for Plan 3 is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 10. If win, the winning payoff would be 5. If lose, the lose payoff would be 5.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected Chips Gain = 14% * 4 - 65% * 4 = -2.04 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = 14% * 5 - 65% * 5 = -2.55 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = -100% * 3 = -3 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (-2.04 chips). Although all plans result in an expected loss of chips, Plan 1 minimizes this loss. This plan also aligns with my strategy improvement of being more cautious when deciding whether to raise, call, or fold."}}
{"message": "", "42_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise the bet and say \"I'm feeling lucky this round, GoodGuy.\"\nPlan 2: Check and say nothing.\nPlan 3: Fold and say \"I think I'll sit this one out, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he might raise (80% probability) or call (20% probability). If he raises, I will likely win (80% probability) as my Queen matches the public card. If he calls, I will likely win (90% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he might call (70% probability) or raise (30% probability). If he calls or raises, it will be a draw (100% probability) as we both have a Queen.\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 0.6*0.8 + 0.6*0.9 + 0.4*0 = 84%, the lose rate is 0, and the draw rate is 0.4*1 = 40%.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he might raise (80% probability) or check (20% probability). If he raises, I will likely win (80% probability). If he checks, I will likely win (90% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he might check (70% probability) or fold (30% probability). If he checks or folds, it will be a draw (100% probability) as we both have a Queen.\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 0.6*0.8 + 0.6*0.9 + 0.4*0 = 84%, the lose rate is 0, and the draw rate is 0.4*1 = 40%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the round regardless of GoodGuy's card. Therefore, the winning rate for Plan 3 is 0, the lose rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\nPlan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\nPlan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 0. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0.84*4 - 0*4 = 3.36\nPlan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0.84*2 - 0*2 = 1.68\nPlan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0*0 - 1*2 = -2\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy to implement in this round. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with the strategy improvement of raising the bet when having a strong hand."}}
{"message": "", "43_0": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\nIf I call, I will put 1 more chip in the pot, making the total chips in the pot 4. \n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Plan 1:\nIf GoodGuy holds a King (35% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability), leading to a loss for me as King is higher than Jack. If he calls (30% probability), it will be a draw. \nIf GoodGuy holds a Queen (35% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability), leading to a loss for me as Queen is higher than Jack. If he calls (30% probability), it will be a draw. \nIf GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely call (60% probability), leading to a draw. If he raises (40% probability), it will also be a draw. \nOverall, the winning rate for plan 1 is 0%, the lose rate is 49% (0.35*0.7 + 0.35*0.7), and the draw rate is 51% (0.35*0.3 + 0.35*0.3 + 0.3).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf I raise, I will put 5 chips in the pot, making the total chips in the pot 8. \n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Plan 2:\nIf GoodGuy holds a King (35% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability), leading to a loss for me. If he calls (30% probability), it will be a draw. \nIf GoodGuy holds a Queen (35% probability), he will likely call (60% probability), leading to a draw. If he raises (40% probability), it will be a loss for me. \nIf GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely call (60% probability), leading to a draw. If he raises (40% probability), it will also be a draw. \nOverall, the winning rate for plan 2 is 0%, the lose rate is 45% (0.35*0.7 + 0.35*0.4), and the draw rate is 55% (0.35*0.3 + 0.35*0.6 + 0.3).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will not put any more chips in the pot, and I will lose the 1 chip I have already put in. \n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Plan 3:\nIf I fold, I will lose the game regardless of GoodGuy's card. Therefore, the winning rate for plan 3 is 0%, the lose rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\nPlan 1: After the action, chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2 chips. \nPlan 2: After the action, chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4 chips. \nPlan 3: After the action, chips in the pot: 3. If win, the winning payoff would be 1.5 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.5 chips. \n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\nPlan 1: Expected chips gain = 0% * 2 - 49% * 2 = -0.98 chips\nPlan 2: Expected chips gain = 0% * 4 - 45% * 4 = -1.8 chips\nPlan 3: Expected chips gain = 0% * 1.5 - 100% * 1.5 = -1.5 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nConsidering both the strategy improvement and the highest estimated expected chips gain, I should select Plan 1: Call. This plan has the highest expected chips gain and is consistent with my strategy to be more conservative when I have a lower card."}}
{"message": "", "43_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, GoodGuy might think I have a King or a Queen. This could potentially make him fold if he has a Jack, giving me a win. If he has a Queen, he might call or raise, which would lead to a loss for me. If he has a King, he will definitely raise, leading to a loss for me.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will definitely lose this round. However, I will only lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot, which could be a smaller loss compared to if I raise or check and GoodGuy has a higher card.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, GoodGuy might think I have a Jack or a Queen. If he has a Jack, he might raise or check, leading to a draw. If he has a Queen, he might raise or check, leading to a loss for me. If he has a King, he will definitely raise, leading to a loss for me.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (40% probability), he might fold (30% probability), leading to a win for me. If he calls (70% probability), it will be a draw.\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (60% probability), he might call (60% probability) or raise (40% probability), leading to a loss for me.\n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 12% (40% * 30%), the losing rate is 60% (60% * (60% + 40%)), and the draw rate is 28% (40% * 70%).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will definitely lose this round. So the losing rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (40% probability), he might raise (40% probability) or check (60% probability), leading to a draw.\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (60% probability), he might raise (70% probability) or check (30% probability), leading to a loss for me.\n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 60% (60% * (70% + 30%)), and the draw rate is 40% (40% * (40% + 60%)).\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 3 chips (2 chips from me, 2 chips from GoodGuy, and 4 chips from my raise).\n- If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 3 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 2 chips (2 chips from me, 2 chips from GoodGuy).\n- If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 2 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- The expected chips gain for this plan is 12% * 3 chips - 60% * 3 chips = -1.44 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- The expected chips gain for this plan is -2 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- The expected chips gain for this plan is 0% * 2 chips - 60% * 2 chips = -1.2 chips.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 3 (Check) is the best plan, as it has the highest expected chips gain (-1.2 chips). Although it is still a loss, it is the smallest loss compared to the other plans. Therefore, I should choose to check in this round."}}
{"message": "", "43_4": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\nIf I call, the pot will increase to 8 chips. \n\nThe winning/lose/draw rates when GoodGuy holds a King: \nIf GoodGuy holds a King (probability 75%), and if he sees my action, GoodGuy will do raise (probability 80%), I will lose (as his King matches the public card and my Jack does not); call (probability 20%), I will lose. \nOverall, the winning rate for his King is 0%, the lose rate for his King is 75%, the draw rate for his King is 0%.\n\nThe winning/lose/draw rates when GoodGuy holds a Queen: \nIf GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 15%), and if he sees my action, he will do raise (probability 30%), I will win (as my Jack is higher than his Queen); call (probability 70%), I will win. \nOverall, the winning rate for his Queen is 15%, the lose rate for his Queen is 0%, the draw rate for his Queen is 0%.\n\nThe winning/lose/draw rates when GoodGuy holds a Jack: \nIf GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 10%), and if he sees my action, he will do raise (probability 40%), it will be a draw (as we both hold a Jack); call (probability 60%), it will be a draw. \nOverall, the winning rate for his Jack is 0%, the lose rate for his Jack is 0%, the draw rate for his Jack is 10%.\n\nPlan1 overall board_game_expert's Winning/Lose/Draw rates: \nThe Winning rate for plan 1 is 15%; Lose rate for plan 1 is 75%; Draw Rate for plan 1 is 10%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf I raise, the pot will increase to 12 chips. \n\nThe winning/lose/draw rates when GoodGuy holds a King: \nIf GoodGuy holds a King (probability 75%), and if he sees my action, GoodGuy will do raise (probability 80%), I will lose; call (probability 20%), I will lose. \nOverall, the winning rate for his King is 0%, the lose rate for his King is 75%, the draw rate for his King is 0%.\n\nThe winning/lose/draw rates when GoodGuy holds a Queen: \nIf GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 15%), and if he sees my action, he will do raise (probability 30%), I will win; call (probability 70%), I will win. \nOverall, the winning rate for his Queen is 15%, the lose rate for his Queen is 0%, the draw rate for his Queen is 0%.\n\nThe winning/lose/draw rates when GoodGuy holds a Jack: \nIf GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 10%), and if he sees my action, he will do raise (probability 40%), it will be a draw; call (probability 60%), it will be a draw. \nOverall, the winning rate for his Jack is 0%, the lose rate for his Jack is 0%, the draw rate for his Jack is 10%.\n\nPlan2 overall board_game_expert's Winning/Lose/Draw rates: \nThe Winning rate for plan 2 is 15%; Lose rate for plan 2 is 75%; Draw Rate for plan 2 is 10%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, the pot will remain at 6 chips. \n\nThe winning/lose/draw rates when GoodGuy holds a King: \nIf GoodGuy holds a King (probability 75%), and if he sees my action, GoodGuy will do raise (probability 80%), I will lose; call (probability 20%), I will lose. \nOverall, the winning rate for his King is 0%, the lose rate for his King is 75%, the draw rate for his King is 0%.\n\nThe winning/lose/draw rates when GoodGuy holds a Queen: \nIf GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 15%), and if he sees my action, he will do raise (probability 30%), I will lose; call (probability 70%), I will lose. \nOverall, the winning rate for his Queen is 0%, the lose rate for his Queen is 15%, the draw rate for his Queen is 0%.\n\nThe winning/lose/draw rates when GoodGuy holds a Jack: \nIf GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 10%), and if he sees my action, he will do raise (probability 40%), I will lose; call (probability 60%), I will lose. \nOverall, the winning rate for his Jack is 0%, the lose rate for his Jack is 10%, the draw rate for his Jack is 0%.\n\nPlan3 overall board_game_expert's Winning/Lose/Draw rates: \nThe Winning rate for plan 3 is 0%; Lose rate for plan 3 is 100%; Draw Rate for plan 3 is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\nPlan1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\nPlan2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 12. If win, the winning payoff would be 6. After the action, Chips in the pot: 12. If lose, the lose payoff would be 6.\nPlan3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\nPlan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 15% * 4 - 75% * 4 = -2.4\nPlan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 15% * 6 - 75% * 6 = -3.6\nPlan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 3 - 100% * 3 = -3\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for every plan, I should select Plan 1 as it has the highest estimated expected chips gain. This plan also aligns with my strategy improvement to be more conservative when I have a lower card by calling or folding."}}
{"message": "", "44_0": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (33.33%), he will likely raise (80%). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will lose. If the public card is a Jack, I will win. Overall, the winning rate is 20%, the losing rate is 60%, and the draw rate is 20%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (33.33%), he will likely call if I raise (70%). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will win. If the public card is a King, I will lose. Overall, the winning rate is 40%, the losing rate is 30%, and the draw rate is 30%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (33.33%), he will likely call if I raise (60%). If the public card is a Jack, it's a draw. If the public card is a King or Queen, I will lose. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 60%, and the draw rate is 40%.\nPlan 1 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 20% for King + 40% for Queen + 0% for Jack = 60%. Losing rate is 60% for King + 30% for Queen + 60% for Jack = 150%. Draw rate is 20% for King + 30% for Queen + 40% for Jack = 90%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (33.33%), he will likely raise (80%). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will lose. If the public card is a Jack, I will win. Overall, the winning rate is 20%, the losing rate is 60%, and the draw rate is 20%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (33.33%), he will likely call if I raise (70%). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will win. If the public card is a King, I will lose. Overall, the winning rate is 40%, the losing rate is 30%, and the draw rate is 30%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (33.33%), he will likely call if I raise (60%). If the public card is a Jack, it's a draw. If the public card is a King or Queen, I will lose. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 60%, and the draw rate is 40%.\nPlan 2 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 20% for King + 40% for Queen + 0% for Jack = 60%. Losing rate is 60% for King + 30% for Queen + 60% for Jack = 150%. Draw rate is 20% for King + 30% for Queen + 40% for Jack = 90%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot. The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 3. If win, the winning payoff would be 1.5. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.5.\n- Plan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 5. If win, the winning payoff would be 2.5. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.5.\n- Plan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 1. If win, the winning payoff would be 0.5. If lose, the lose payoff would be 0.5.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 60% * 1.5 - 150% * 1.5 = -135\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 60% * 2.5 - 150% * 2.5 = -225\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 0.5 - 100% * 0.5 = -50\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 3 (Fold) is the best strategy to minimize loss in this round."}}
{"message": "", "45_1": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (40% probability), he will likely raise (40% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (probability 1/3). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will lose (probability 2/3). Overall, the winning rate is 13.33%, the losing rate is 26.67%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely call (50% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (probability 1/3). If the public card is a Queen, it's a draw (probability 1/3). If the public card is a Jack, I will win (probability 1/3). Overall, the winning rate is 33.33%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 16.67%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely fold (60% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (probability 1/3). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will win (probability 2/3). Overall, the winning rate is 6.67%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (40% probability), he will likely raise (40% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (probability 1/3). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will lose (probability 2/3). Overall, the winning rate is 13.33%, the losing rate is 26.67%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely raise (50% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (probability 1/3). If the public card is a Queen, it's a draw (probability 1/3). If the public card is a Jack, I will win (probability 1/3). Overall, the winning rate is 33.33%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 16.67%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely fold (60% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (probability 1/3). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will win (probability 2/3). Overall, the winning rate is 6.67%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot. The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nExpected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 13.33% * 4 - 26.67% * 2 = -0.67 chips\n- Plan 2: Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 13.33% * 8 - 26.67% * 4 = -0.67 chips\n- Plan 3: Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 0% * 0 - 100% * 2 = -2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 and Plan 2 are the best strategies. However, considering the strategy improvement, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy as it allows me to potentially win more chips while minimizing my losses."}}
{"message": "", "45_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: 'Raise' \n- If I raise, I can potentially increase the pot size and win more chips if I have the higher card. However, this also risks losing more chips if I don't have the higher card. \n\nPlan 2: 'Fold' \n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot, but I won't risk losing any more. This is a safe option if I believe that GoodGuy has a higher card. \n\nPlan 3: 'Check' \n- If I check, I won't add any more chips to the pot, but I also won't reduce my potential winnings. This is a good option if I'm unsure about GoodGuy's card.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely call (30% probability). I will win 0% (as it will be a draw), lose 0%, and draw 100%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he will likely fold (100% probability). I will win 100%, lose 0%, and draw 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely fold (100% probability). I will win 100%, lose 0%, and draw 0%.\n- Overall, the winning rate for plan 1 is 50%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 50%.\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of GoodGuy's card. The winning rate for plan 2 is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely call (30% probability). I will win 0% (as it will be a draw), lose 0%, and draw 100%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he will likely check (100% probability). I will win 0%, lose 100%, and draw 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely check (100% probability). I will win 100%, lose 0%, and draw 0%.\n- Overall, the winning rate for plan 3 is 30%, the losing rate is 20%, and the draw rate is 50%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips).\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot (4 chips).\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 50% * 8 - 0% * 8 = 4 chips\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 0 - 100% * 4 = -4 chips\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 30% * 4 - 20% * 4 = 0.4 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 ('Raise') is the best strategy with an expected gain of 4 chips. This strategy is also in line with my strategy improvement, which suggests raising when I hold a King. Therefore, I will choose Plan 1 ('Raise')."}}
{"message": "", "46_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, I will put 4 more chips in the pot, making the total chips in the pot 8. This will leave me with 79 chips. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will not put any more chips in the pot, leaving the total chips in the pot at 2. This will leave me with 83 chips. \n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, I will not put any more chips in the pot, leaving the total chips in the pot at 2. This will leave me with 83 chips. \n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (25% probability), he will likely raise (100% probability), making me lose (100% probability). \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely fold (50% probability), making me win (100% probability), or call (50% probability), making me draw (50% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (25% probability), he will likely fold (100% probability), making me win (100% probability).\n- Overall, the winning rate for plan 1 is 75%, the losing rate is 25%, and the draw rate is 25%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of what card GoodGuy holds. \n- Overall, the winning rate for plan 2 is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (25% probability), he will likely raise (100% probability), making me lose (100% probability). \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely check (50% probability), making me draw (50% probability), or raise (50% probability), making me lose (50% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (25% probability), he will likely check (100% probability), making me win (100% probability).\n- Overall, the winning rate for plan 3 is 25%, the losing rate is 75%, and the draw rate is 25%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 4 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 4 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 0 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 1 chip.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 1 chip.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 1 chip.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 75% * 4 - 25% * 4 = 2 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0% * 0 - 100% * 1 = -1 chip.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 25% * 1 - 75% * 1 = -0.5 chips.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy to use in this situation."}}
{"message": "", "46_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (70% probability), he will likely call (80% probability) or fold (20% probability). If he calls, I have a 50% chance of winning (if the public card is a Queen), a 25% chance of losing (if the public card is a King), and a 25% chance of drawing (if the public card is a Jack). If he folds, I win automatically. \n- If GoodGuy holds a King (30% probability), he will likely call (100% probability). If he calls, I have a 0% chance of winning, a 75% chance of losing (if the public card is a King or Jack), and a 25% chance of drawing (if the public card is a Queen). \n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 70% * 80% * 50% + 70% * 20% = 28% + 14% = 42%. The losing rate is 70% * 80% * 25% + 30% * 100% * 75% = 14% + 22.5% = 36.5%. The drawing rate is 70% * 80% * 25% + 30% * 100% * 25% = 14% + 7.5% = 21.5%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I lose automatically. The losing rate for Plan 2 is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (70% probability), he will likely check (80% probability) or raise (20% probability). If he checks, I have a 50% chance of winning (if the public card is a Queen), a 25% chance of losing (if the public card is a King), and a 25% chance of drawing (if the public card is a Jack). If he raises, I will fold and lose automatically. \n- If GoodGuy holds a King (30% probability), he will likely raise (100% probability). If he raises, I will fold and lose automatically. \n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 3 is 70% * 80% * 50% = 28%. The losing rate is 70% * 80% * 25% + 70% * 20% + 30% * 100% = 14% + 14% + 30% = 58%. The drawing rate is 70% * 80% * 25% = 14%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n- Plan 2: After the action, chips in the pot: 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n- Plan 3: After the action, chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: 42% * 4 - 36.5% * 4 = 0.22\n- Plan 2: 0% * 0 - 100% * 2 = -2\n- Plan 3: 28% * 2 - 58% * 2 = -0.6\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy to implement in the current game."}}
{"message": "", "47_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips, bringing the total pot to 10 chips. This action does not reveal much about my hand, which could confuse GoodGuy.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will put 4 more chips into the pot, bringing the total pot to 14 chips. This action could indicate that I have a strong hand, potentially causing GoodGuy to fold if he has a weaker hand.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put into the pot. This action would end the game immediately, but it would minimize my losses if GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he might raise (60%) or call (40%). If he raises, I would likely lose unless the public card is a Queen. If he calls, the game would proceed to the second round.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he might call (70%) or raise (30%). If he raises, I would likely draw unless the public card is a King or Jack. If he calls, the game would proceed to the second round.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he might call (80%) or fold (20%). If he calls, I would likely win unless the public card is a Jack. If he folds, I would win the game immediately.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he might call (40%) or fold (60%). If he calls, I would likely lose unless the public card is a Queen. If he folds, I would win the game immediately.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he might call (70%) or fold (30%). If he calls, I would likely draw unless the public card is a King or Jack. If he folds, I would win the game immediately.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he might call (20%) or fold (80%). If he calls, I would likely win unless the public card is a Jack. If he folds, I would win the game immediately.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose the game immediately regardless of GoodGuy's card.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 5 chips (half of the 10-chip pot).\n- If I lose, the lose payoff would be 4 chips (the amount I put into the pot).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 7 chips (half of the 14-chip pot).\n- If I lose, the lose payoff would be 6 chips (the amount I put into the pot).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, the lose payoff would be 2 chips (the amount I put into the pot).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = (winning rate * winning payoff) - (losing rate * losing payoff) = (0.4 * 5) - (0.6 * 4) = -0.4 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = (winning rate * winning payoff) - (losing rate * losing payoff) = (0.5 * 7) - (0.5 * 6) = 0.5 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -2 chips (since I would lose the game immediately)\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement of raising when I hold a Queen."}}
{"message": "", "47_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\nI can raise the bet to 14 chips, potentially bluffing GoodGuy into folding if he doesn't hold a Jack. I will say, \"I'm feeling lucky, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPlan 2: Fold\nI can fold to minimize my loss if GoodGuy holds a King or a Jack. I will keep silent.\n\nPlan 3: Check\nI can check to see GoodGuy's action without adding more chips into the pot. I will say, \"Your move, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60%), he will likely call (40%) or fold (60%). I will lose if he calls.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30%), he will likely call (40%) or fold (60%). It will be a draw if he calls.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10%), he will likely raise (70%) or call (30%). I will lose if he raises or calls.\nOverall, the winning rate for plan 1 is 0%, the lose rate is 70%, and the draw rate is 30%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60%), I will lose.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30%), it will be a draw.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10%), I will lose.\nOverall, the winning rate for plan 2 is 0%, the lose rate is 70%, and the draw rate is 30%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60%), he will likely raise (60%) or check (40%). I will lose if he raises.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30%), he will likely raise (30%) or check (70%). It will be a draw if he raises or checks.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10%), he will likely raise (70%) or check (30%). I will lose if he raises.\nOverall, the winning rate for plan 3 is 0%, the lose rate is 70%, and the draw rate is 30%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 14 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 14 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 0 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 6 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 6 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 6 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\nExpected Chips Gain = 0% * 14 - 70% * 14 = -9.8 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\nExpected Chips Gain = 0% * 0 - 70% * 6 = -4.2 chips\n\nPlan 3: Check\nExpected Chips Gain = 0% * 6 - 70% * 6 = -4.2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nConsidering both the strategy improvement and the highest estimated expected chips gain, I should select Plan 2: Fold."}}
{"message": "", "48_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- I will put in 1 more chip to match GoodGuy's bet. This is a safe move as it does not risk too many chips and it may lead GoodGuy to believe that I have a weaker card.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- I will put in 4 more chips than GoodGuy. This is a more aggressive move that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, especially if he has a weaker card.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- I will not put in any more chips and forfeit the round. This is the most conservative move and it would only be beneficial if I believe that GoodGuy has a stronger card.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (50% * 60% = 30% winning rate). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will lose (50% * 40% = 20% losing rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will likely call (70% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will win (50% * 70% = 35% winning rate). If the public card is a Jack, I will lose (50% * 30% = 15% losing rate).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 65%, the losing rate is 35%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (50% * 60% = 30% winning rate). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will lose (50% * 40% = 20% losing rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will likely call (70% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will win (50% * 70% = 35% winning rate). If the public card is a Jack, I will lose (50% * 30% = 15% losing rate).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 65%, the losing rate is 35%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will automatically lose the round. Therefore, the winning rate for Plan 3 is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 7. If win, the winning payoff would be 3.5. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.5.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 3. If win, the winning payoff would be 0 (since I forfeit the round). If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.5.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 65% * 2 - 35% * 2 = 0.6\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 65% * 3.5 - 35% * 3.5 = 0\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 0% * 0 - 100% * 1.5 = -1.5\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. This plan also aligns with my strategy improvement as it is a safe move that does not risk too many chips. Therefore, I will choose to call."}}
{"message": "", "48_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, I can potentially force GoodGuy to fold if he has a Jack, which would give me the pot. If he has a Queen, he might call or raise, which would increase the pot size. If he has a King, he might call, which would also increase the pot size. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose the chips I have already put in the pot. However, I would avoid potentially losing more chips if GoodGuy has a Queen (which would give him a pair) or a King (which would be a higher rank than my King).\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, I would not put any more chips into the pot. This would be a safe option if I believe GoodGuy has a Queen or a King. \n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (70% probability), he might call (20% probability) or raise (80% probability). If he calls, I would win (as my King is higher than his Queen) with a probability of 14%. If he raises, I would lose (as his pair of Queens is higher than my single King) with a probability of 56%. \n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (30% probability), he might fold (100% probability). If he folds, I would win with a probability of 30%. \n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 44%, the losing rate is 56%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose regardless of GoodGuy's cards. Therefore, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (70% probability), he might raise (80% probability) or check (20% probability). If he raises, I would lose (as his pair of Queens is higher than my single King) with a probability of 56%. If he checks, I would win (as my King is higher than his Queen) with a probability of 14%. \n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (30% probability), he might check (100% probability). If he checks, I would win (as my King is higher than his Jack) with a probability of 30%. \n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 3 is 44%, the losing rate is 56%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- After the action, chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- After the action, chips in the pot: 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- After the action, chips in the pot: 2. If win, the winning payoff would be 1. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * lose payoff = 44% * 3 - 56% * 3 = -0.36\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -100% * 1 = -1\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * lose payoff = 44% * 1 - 56% * 1 = -0.12\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) would be the best strategy to implement, as it has the highest expected chips gain. This strategy also aligns with my strategy improvement, which suggests raising when I hold a King and the public card is not a King."}}
{"message": "", "49_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 2 chips, bringing the total pot to 5 chips. This is a safe play that keeps me in the game without risking too many chips. \n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will add 4 more chips to the pot, bringing the total pot to 7 chips. This is a more aggressive play that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, especially if he has a lower card.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot. This is a conservative play that minimizes my losses if I believe GoodGuy has a higher card.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability). This would result in a loss for me unless the public card is a Queen. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely raise (60% probability) or call (40% probability). This would result in a win for me unless the public card is a Jack. \n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 30%, the losing rate is 70%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability). This would result in a loss for me unless the public card is a Queen. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely fold (100% probability). This would result in a win for me. \n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 30%, the losing rate is 70%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot. This results in a 100% loss rate.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (5/2 = 2.5 chips).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (5/2 = 2.5 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (7/2 = 3.5 chips).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (7/2 = 3.5 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot. \n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0.3 * 2.5 - 0.7 * 2.5 = -1 chip\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0.3 * 3.5 - 0.7 * 3.5 = -1.4 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -1 chip\n\nPlan Selection: \n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (-1 chip). Although it is still a loss, it is the smallest loss compared to the other plans. This plan also aligns with my strategy improvement, which suggests calling when I hold a Queen and see GoodGuy's action."}}
{"message": "", "49_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, GoodGuy might believe that I hold a card matching the public card, which is a Jack. This could potentially intimidate him into folding if he holds a Queen, which would result in me winning the pot. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, GoodGuy might believe that I hold a card not matching the public card and lower than his card. This could potentially lead him to raise, which would result in me losing the pot. \n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, GoodGuy might believe that I hold a card not matching the public card but higher than his card. This could potentially lead him to check as well, which would result in a showdown. \n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely fold (60% probability), resulting in a win for me. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will likely raise (80% probability), resulting in a loss for me. \n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 30% (50% * 60%), the losing rate is 40% (50% * 80%), and the draw rate is 30% (remaining probability).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely check (100% probability), resulting in a loss for me. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will likely raise (80% probability), resulting in a loss for me. \n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely check (100% probability), resulting in a draw. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will likely raise (80% probability), resulting in a loss for me. \n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 40% (50% * 80%), and the draw rate is 60% (remaining probability).\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- After the action, chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- After the action, chips in the pot: 2. If win, the winning payoff would be 1. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- After the action, chips in the pot: 2. If win, the winning payoff would be 1. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 30% * 2 - 40% * 2 = -0.2 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0% * 1 - 100% * 1 = -1 chip\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0% * 1 - 40% * 1 = -0.4 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, Plan 1: Raise is the best strategy to implement as it has the highest expected chips gain. This strategy aligns with the strategy improvement of raising when holding a Queen and seeing GoodGuy's action."}}
{"message": "", "49_4": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (80% probability), he will likely call (100% probability). In this case, I will lose as his Jack matches the public card. The lose rate for his Jack is 80%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he will likely fold (60% probability) or check (40% probability). In this case, I will win as my Queen is higher than the public card. The win rate for his Queen is 20%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (80% probability), he will likely call (100% probability). In this case, I will lose as his Jack matches the public card. The lose rate for his Jack is 80%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he will likely fold (60% probability) or check (40% probability). In this case, I will not lose any additional chips. The draw rate for his Queen is 20%.\n\nPlan 1 overall board_game_expert's Winning/Lose/Draw rates: \n- Winning rate for plan 1: 20%\n- Lose rate for plan 1: 80%\n- Draw rate for plan 1: 0%\n\nPlan 2 overall board_game_expert's Winning/Lose/Draw rates: \n- Winning rate for plan 2: 0%\n- Lose rate for plan 2: 80%\n- Draw rate for plan 2: 20%\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\nPlan1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 16. If win, the winning payoff would be 8. After the action, Chips in the pot: 16. If lose, the lose payoff would be 8.\nPlan2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 12. If win, the winning payoff would be 6. After the action, Chips in the pot: 12. If lose, the lose payoff would be 6.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\nPlan 1: 20% * 8 - 80% * 8 = -4.8\nPlan 2: 0% * 6 - 80% * 6 = -4.8\n\nPlan Selection: \nBoth plans have the same expected chips loss. However, considering the strategy improvement, I should choose Plan 1: Call. This is because it gives me a chance to win if GoodGuy holds a Queen, while folding does not give me any chance to win."}}
{"message": "", "50_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips, bringing the total pot to 10 chips. This is a safe move that allows me to see the public card without risking too many chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will bet 4 more chips than GoodGuy, bringing the total pot to 14 chips. This is a more aggressive move that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy and make him fold, especially if he has a weaker hand.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will forfeit the game and lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot. This is a defensive move that minimizes my losses if I believe GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (20% probability), he will likely raise (30% probability), resulting in a draw (30% * 20% = 6% draw rate). If he checks (70% probability), I will win (70% * 20% = 14% winning rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely check (80% probability), resulting in a win for me (80% * 40% = 32% winning rate). If he raises (20% probability), I will lose (20% * 40% = 8% losing rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will likely check (70% probability), resulting in a win for me (70% * 40% = 28% winning rate). If he raises (30% probability), I will lose (30% * 40% = 12% losing rate).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 74%, the losing rate is 20%, and the draw rate is 6%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (20% probability), he will likely raise (30% probability), resulting in a draw (30% * 20% = 6% draw rate). If he checks (70% probability), I will win (70% * 20% = 14% winning rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely fold (80% probability), resulting in a win for me (80% * 40% = 32% winning rate). If he calls (20% probability), I will lose (20% * 40% = 8% losing rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will likely fold (70% probability), resulting in a win for me (70% * 40% = 28% winning rate). If he calls (30% probability), I will lose (30% * 40% = 12% losing rate).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 74%, the losing rate is 20%, and the draw rate is 6%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the game regardless of GoodGuy's hand. The losing rate for Plan 3 is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (10 chips / 2 = 5 chips).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be the amount I bet (4 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (14 chips / 2 = 7 chips).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be the amount I bet (6 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 74% * 5 chips - 20% * 4 chips = 2.7 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 74% * 7 chips - 20% * 6 chips = 3.8 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -2 chips (since I will lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot)\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy with an expected chips gain of 3.8 chips. This strategy is also consistent with my strategy improvement, which suggests that I should raise when I have a strong hand. Therefore, I will choose Plan 2 (Raise)."}}
{"message": "", "50_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (17.5% probability), he will likely call (10% probability). I will win as my King is higher than his King. The winning rate is 17.5% * 10% = 1.75%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (45% probability), he will likely check (60% probability). I will win as my King is higher than his Queen. The winning rate is 45% * 60% = 27%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (37.5% probability), he will likely check (60% probability). I will lose as his pair of Jacks is higher than my single King. The losing rate is 37.5% * 60% = 22.5%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of GoodGuy's card. The losing rate is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (17.5% probability), he will likely raise (90% probability). I will win as my King is higher than his King. The winning rate is 17.5% * 90% = 15.75%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (45% probability), he will likely raise (40% probability). I will win as my King is higher than his Queen. The winning rate is 45% * 40% = 18%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (37.5% probability), he will likely raise (40% probability). I will lose as his pair of Jacks is higher than my single King. The losing rate is 37.5% * 40% = 15%.\n\nPlan 1 Expected Chips Gain: Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 1.75% * 6 - 22.5% * 6 = -0.465\nPlan 2 Expected Chips Gain: 0% * Winning Payoff - 100% * Losing Payoff = -6\nPlan 3 Expected Chips Gain: Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 15.75% * 6 - 15% * 6 = 0.045\n\nPlan Selection: Based on the expected chips gain, Plan 3 (Check) is the best strategy to implement in the current game. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with the strategy improvement of adjusting my actions based on GoodGuy's game pattern and my own hand."}}
{"message": "", "51_1": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (35%):\n  - He might raise (70%), in which case I would win if the public card is a King (33.3%), draw if the public card is a Queen or Jack (66.7%).\n  - He might check (30%), in which case I would win if the public card is a King or Queen (66.7%), draw if the public card is a Jack (33.3%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (65%):\n  - He might raise (40%), in which case I would win if the public card is a King or Jack (66.7%), lose if the public card is a Queen (33.3%).\n  - He might check (60%), in which case I would win if the public card is a King or Jack (66.7%), lose if the public card is a Queen (33.3%).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (35%):\n  - He might call (30%), in which case I would win if the public card is a King (33.3%), draw if the public card is a Queen or Jack (66.7%).\n  - He might fold (70%), in which case I would win regardless of the public card.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (65%):\n  - He might call (50%), in which case I would win if the public card is a King or Jack (66.7%), lose if the public card is a Queen (33.3%).\n  - He might fold (50%), in which case I would win regardless of the public card.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose regardless of GoodGuy's card or the public card.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n- Plan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n- Plan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0.65 * 3 - 0.35 * 3 = 0\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0.65 * 4 - 0.35 * 4 = 1.2\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = -2\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy to follow. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement when holding a King."}}
{"message": "", "51_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (60% probability), he will likely fold (60% probability). If he folds, I will win the pot. If he calls (40% probability), I will win as my King is higher than his Jack. So, the winning rate for this plan is 100%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely raise (80% probability). If he raises, I will lose as his Queen pairs with the public card. If he checks (20% probability), I will also lose. So, the losing rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (60% probability), I will lose as I fold. So, the losing rate for this plan is 60%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), I will lose as I fold. So, the losing rate for this plan is 40%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (60% probability), he will likely fold (60% probability). If he folds, I will win the pot. If he calls (40% probability), I will win as my King is higher than his Jack. So, the winning rate for this plan is 100%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely raise (80% probability). If he raises, I will lose as his Queen pairs with the public card. If he checks (20% probability), I will also lose. So, the losing rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 12. If win, the winning payoff would be 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 6.\n- Plan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n- Plan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 1.0 * 6 - 1.0 * 6 = 0\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0 * 3 - 1.0 * 3 = -3\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 1.0 * 3 - 1.0 * 3 = 0\n\nPlan Selection:\nConsidering both the strategy improvement and the highest estimated expected chips gain, I should choose Plan 1: Raise. This plan aligns with my strategy improvement when I hold a King and the public card is a Queen or Jack. Although the expected chips gain is 0, it is higher than the expected chips gain of Plan 2: Fold. Plan 3: Check also has an expected chips gain of 0, but raising could potentially pressure GoodGuy into folding if he holds a Jack."}}
{"message": "", "52_1": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (33.33% probability), he will likely raise (50% probability). If the public card is a King, I will lose. If the public card is not a King, I will win if it's a Jack and lose if it's a Queen. Overall, the winning rate is 16.67%, the losing rate is 16.67%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (33.33% probability), he will likely raise (50% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will lose. If the public card is not a Queen, I will win if it's a Jack and lose if it's a King. Overall, the winning rate is 16.67%, the losing rate is 16.67%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (33.33% probability), he will likely raise (50% probability). If the public card is a Jack, it's a draw. If the public card is not a Jack, I will lose. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 16.67%, and the draw rate is 16.67%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (33.33% probability), he will likely raise (50% probability). If the public card is a King, I will lose. If the public card is not a King, I will win if it's a Jack and lose if it's a Queen. Overall, the winning rate is 16.67%, the losing rate is 16.67%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (33.33% probability), he will likely raise (50% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will lose. If the public card is not a Queen, I will win if it's a Jack and lose if it's a King. Overall, the winning rate is 16.67%, the losing rate is 16.67%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (33.33% probability), he will likely raise (50% probability). If the public card is a Jack, it's a draw. If the public card is not a Jack, I will lose. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 16.67%, and the draw rate is 16.67%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put into the pot. The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (6 chips). If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (6 chips).\n- Plan 2: If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips). If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips).\n- Plan 3: If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put into the pot.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 16.67% * 6 - 16.67% * 6 = 0 chips\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 16.67% * 8 - 16.67% * 8 = 0 chips\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 0 - 100% * 2 = -2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nConsidering both the strategy improvement and the highest estimated expected chips gain, I should select Plan 1 or Plan 2. Since Plan 2 involves a higher risk (more chips in the pot), I will choose Plan 1: Call."}}
{"message": "", "52_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Check\n- This is a conservative approach. By checking, I can see the next public card without adding more chips to the pot. This is a safe move considering my current hand (Jack) is lower than the public card (Queen).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- This is an aggressive approach. By raising, I can potentially force GoodGuy to fold if he has a weak hand. However, this is a risky move considering my current hand (Jack) is lower than the public card (Queen).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- This is a defensive approach. By folding, I can avoid losing more chips in this round. However, this means giving up the chance to win the pot in this round.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Check\n- If GoodGuy has a King (70% probability), he will likely raise (50% probability). I will likely lose (70% * 50% = 35% lose rate).\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (30% probability), he will likely check (50% probability). I will likely draw (30% * 50% = 15% draw rate).\n- Overall, the winning rate for plan 1 is 0%, the lose rate is 35%, and the draw rate is 15%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a King (70% probability), he will likely call (50% probability). I will likely lose (70% * 50% = 35% lose rate).\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (30% probability), he will likely fold (50% probability). I will likely win (30% * 50% = 15% win rate).\n- Overall, the winning rate for plan 2 is 15%, the lose rate is 35%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will automatically lose the round. Therefore, the lose rate for plan 3 is 100%, and the winning and draw rates are both 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Check\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (2 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (2 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (6 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (6 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot (2 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 0% * 2 chips - 35% * 2 chips = -0.7 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 15% * 6 chips - 35% * 6 chips = -1.2 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -2 chips (the chips I have already put in the pot).\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, Plan 1 (Check) is the best strategy to follow in this round. It has the highest expected chips gain (-0.7 chips), which means the least expected loss in this case."}}
{"message": "", "53_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 2 chips, bringing the total pot to 5 chips. This is a safe move that allows me to see the public card without risking too many chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will increase the bet by 4 chips, bringing the total pot to 7 chips. This is a more aggressive move that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy and lead him to fold, especially if he has a weak hand.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will forfeit the game and lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot. This is a conservative move that minimizes my losses if I believe GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy has a King (70% chance), he will likely raise (70% chance). I will likely lose (70% * 70% = 49% chance).\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (20% chance), he will likely call (60% chance). I will likely draw (20% * 60% = 12% chance).\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (10% chance), he will likely call (80% chance). I will likely win (10% * 80% = 8% chance).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 8%, the losing rate is 49%, and the draw rate is 12%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a King (70% chance), he will likely raise (70% chance). I will likely lose (70% * 70% = 49% chance).\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (20% chance), he will likely call (60% chance). I will likely draw (20% * 60% = 12% chance).\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (10% chance), he will likely fold (80% chance). I will likely win (10% * 80% = 8% chance).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 8%, the losing rate is 49%, and the draw rate is 12%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will automatically lose the game. The losing rate for Plan 3 is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (5/2 = 2.5 chips).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (5/2 = 2.5 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (7/2 = 3.5 chips).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (7/2 = 3.5 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 8% * 2.5 - 49% * 2.5 = -1.025 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = 8% * 3.5 - 49% * 3.5 = -1.435 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -1 chip\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (-1.025 chips). Although all plans result in a loss of chips, Plan 1 minimizes this loss. This plan also aligns with my strategy improvement of being more cautious when I have a weak hand."}}
{"message": "", "53_2": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (80% probability), he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%). If he calls, I will win because my Queen is higher than his Jack. If he raises, it means he has a pair of Jacks and I will lose. So, the winning rate is 70%, the losing rate is 30%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (15% probability), he will likely call (60%) or fold (40%). If he calls, it will be a draw because we both have a Queen. If he folds, I will win. So, the winning rate is 40%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 60%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (5% probability), he will likely raise (90%) or call (10%). If he raises, I will lose because his King is higher than my Queen. If he calls, I will also lose. So, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of GoodGuy's card. So, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (80% probability), he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%). If he calls, I will win because my Queen is higher than his Jack. If he raises, it means he has a pair of Jacks and I will lose. So, the winning rate is 70%, the losing rate is 30%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (15% probability), he will likely call (60%) or fold (40%). If he calls, it will be a draw because we both have a Queen. If he folds, I will win. So, the winning rate is 40%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 60%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (5% probability), he will likely raise (90%) or call (10%). If he raises, I will lose because his King is higher than my Queen. If he calls, I will also lose. So, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nExpected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: (0.7 * 4) - (0.3 * 4) = 1.6 chips\n- Plan 2: 0 - (1 * 2) = -2 chips\n- Plan 3: (0.7 * 2) - (0.3 * 2) = 0.8 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement to be more aggressive when I have a strong hand."}}
{"message": "", "53_4": {"plan": "Plan 1: 'Call'\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (65% probability), he will likely 'call' (70% probability). If this happens, I will lose as his pair of Jacks beats my single Queen. The losing rate for his Jack is 65% * 70% = 45.5%. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (25% probability), he will likely 'call' (60% probability). If this happens, it will be a draw as we both have a single Queen. The draw rate for his Queen is 25% * 60% = 15%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (10% probability), he will likely 'call' (60% probability). If this happens, I will lose as his single King beats my single Queen. The losing rate for his King is 10% * 60% = 6%.\n\nPlan 1 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: \n- Winning rate for plan 1 is 0%.\n- Lose rate for plan 1 is 45.5% + 6% = 51.5%.\n- Draw rate for plan 1 is 15%.\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- If I 'fold', I will automatically lose the round regardless of GoodGuy's card. Therefore, the losing rate for plan 2 is 100%.\n\nPlan 2 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: \n- Winning rate for plan 2 is 0%.\n- Lose rate for plan 2 is 100%.\n- Draw rate for plan 2 is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the 'call' action, chips in the pot will be 16. If win, the winning payoff would be 8 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 8 chips.\n- Plan 2: After the 'fold' action, chips in the pot will be 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 0% * 8 - 51.5% * 8 = -4.12 chips.\n- Plan 2: Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 0% * 0 - 100% * 3 = -3 chips.\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 2 ('Fold') is the better strategy as it results in a smaller loss of chips. This strategy is also more cautious, which aligns with my strategy improvement of being more cautious when I have a weak hand. Therefore, I will choose to 'Fold'."}}
{"message": "", "54_1": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (80% probability), he will likely raise (80% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will lose. If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 80%, and the draw rate is 20%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he will likely call (60% probability) or raise (40% probability). If the public card is a King, I will lose. If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will win. Overall, the winning rate is 20%, the losing rate is 20%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (80% probability), he will likely raise (80% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will lose. If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 80%, and the draw rate is 20%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he will likely call (60% probability) or raise (40% probability). If the public card is a King, I will lose. If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will win. Overall, the winning rate is 20%, the losing rate is 20%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the game regardless of GoodGuy's card or the public card. The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (6 chips). If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (6 chips).\n- Plan 2: If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips). If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips).\n- Plan 3: If I fold, I will lose 2 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0.2 * 6 - 0.8 * 6 = -3.6 chips\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0.2 * 8 - 0.8 * 8 = -4.8 chips\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = -2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nConsidering both the strategy improvement and the highest estimated expected chips gain, I should choose Plan 1: Call. This plan has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement of calling when I hold a Queen and GoodGuy raises."}}
{"message": "", "54_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (40% probability), he will likely fold (50% probability). This results in a win for me. If he calls (50% probability), he will win.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (10% probability), he will likely fold (50% probability). This results in a win for me. If he calls (50% probability), it will be a draw.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will likely fold (50% probability). This results in a win for me. If he calls (50% probability), I will win.\n\nOverall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 70% (40%*50% + 10%*50% + 50%*100%), the losing rate is 20% (40%*50%), and the draw rate is 10% (10%*50%).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of what card GoodGuy holds. The losing rate for Plan 2 is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (40% probability), he will likely raise (50% probability), resulting in a loss for me. If he checks (50% probability), he will win.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (10% probability), he will likely check (50% probability), resulting in a draw. If he raises (50% probability), I will lose.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will likely check (50% probability), resulting in a win for me. If he raises (50% probability), I will win.\n\nOverall, the winning rate for Plan 3 is 50% (50%*100%), the losing rate is 45% (40%*50% + 10%*50%), and the draw rate is 5% (10%*50%).\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: If I win, the winning payoff would be 4 chips. If I lose, the losing payoff would be 4 chips.\n- Plan 2: If I fold, I will lose 4 chips.\n- Plan 3: If I win, the winning payoff would be 4 chips. If I lose, the losing payoff would be 4 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected gain = 70% * 4 - 20% * 4 = 2 chips\n- Plan 2: Expected gain = -100% * 4 = -4 chips\n- Plan 3: Expected gain = 50% * 4 - 45% * 4 = 0.2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy to adopt in this situation. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with the strategy improvement."}}
{"message": "", "55_1": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (probability 80%), he will likely raise (probability 80%). If the public card is a King, we both have a pair of Kings and it's a draw. If the public card is a Queen or a Jack, I win with a high card King. Overall, the winning rate is 16%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 64%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 10%), he will likely check (probability 60%). If the public card is a King, I win with a high card King. If the public card is a Queen, GoodGuy wins with a pair of Queens. If the public card is a Jack, I win with a high card King. Overall, the winning rate is 6%, the losing rate is 1%, and the draw rate is 3%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 10%), he will likely check (probability 70%). If the public card is a King, I win with a high card King. If the public card is a Queen or a Jack, GoodGuy wins with a pair. Overall, the winning rate is 7%, the losing rate is 3%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (probability 80%), he will likely raise (probability 80%). If the public card is a King, we both have a pair of Kings and it's a draw. If the public card is a Queen or a Jack, I win with a high card King. Overall, the winning rate is 16%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 64%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 10%), he will likely fold (probability 60%). If the public card is a King, I win with a high card King. If the public card is a Queen, GoodGuy wins with a pair of Queens. If the public card is a Jack, I win with a high card King. Overall, the winning rate is 6%, the losing rate is 1%, and the draw rate is 3%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 10%), he will likely fold (probability 70%). If the public card is a King, I win with a high card King. If the public card is a Queen or a Jack, GoodGuy wins with a pair. Overall, the winning rate is 7%, the losing rate is 3%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I lose the game regardless of GoodGuy's card. The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: If I win, the winning payoff would be 6 chips. If I lose, the losing payoff would be 2 chips.\n- Plan 2: If I win, the winning payoff would be 8 chips. If I lose, the losing payoff would be 4 chips.\n- Plan 3: If I fold, I lose 2 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0.29 * 6 - 0.04 * 2 = 1.54\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0.29 * 8 - 0.04 * 4 = 2.08\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = -2\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy to implement. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with the strategy improvement of being more aggressive when holding a strong hand."}}
{"message": "", "55_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, I can potentially increase the pot size and maximize my winnings given my strong hand. I could say, \"I'm feeling lucky today, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If I check, I can potentially induce GoodGuy to raise, which would also increase the pot size. I could say, \"Your move, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Folding is not a reasonable plan in this situation given my strong hand.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (60% probability), he will likely check (60% probability). I will win (100% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will likely check (60% probability). I will win (100% probability).\n- Overall winning rate for Plan 1 is 100%.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (60% probability), he will likely raise (40% probability). I will win (100% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will likely raise (40% probability). I will win (100% probability).\n- Overall winning rate for Plan 2 is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of GoodGuy's card. Overall losing rate for Plan 3 is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- After the action, chips in the pot: 16. If win, the winning payoff would be 8. If lose, the lose payoff would be 8.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- After the action, chips in the pot: 12. If win, the winning payoff would be 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 6.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- After the action, chips in the pot: 12. If lose, the lose payoff would be 6.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 1.0 * 8 - 0.0 * 8 = 8.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 1.0 * 6 - 0.0 * 6 = 6.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0.0 * 0 - 1.0 * 6 = -6.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy. It aligns with my strategy improvement of being more aggressive when I have a strong hand and has the highest estimated expected chips gain."}}
{"message": "", "56_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- This is a conservative strategy that minimizes potential losses. It also aligns with my previous game pattern, which may make GoodGuy believe I have a Queen or a Jack.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- This is an aggressive strategy that maximizes potential gains. It also aligns with my previous game pattern, which may make GoodGuy believe I have a King.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- This is a defensive strategy that completely avoids potential losses. However, it also forfeits any potential gains.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (probability 33%), he will likely raise (probability 80%). I will likely lose (probability 80%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 33%), he will likely call (probability 70%). I will likely win (probability 70%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 33%), he will likely call (probability 60%). I will likely win (probability 60%).\n- Overall, my winning rate is 43%, my losing rate is 27%, and my draw rate is 30%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (probability 33%), he will likely raise (probability 80%). I will likely draw (probability 80%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 33%), he will likely call (probability 70%). I will likely win (probability 70%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 33%), he will likely call (probability 60%). I will likely win (probability 60%).\n- Overall, my winning rate is 43%, my losing rate is 0%, and my draw rate is 57%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (probability 33%), I will lose (probability 100%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 33%), I will lose (probability 100%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 33%), I will lose (probability 100%).\n- Overall, my winning rate is 0%, my losing rate is 100%, and my draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 3 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 1 chip.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 7 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 2 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 0 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 1 chip.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 43% * 3 - 27% * 1 = 0.92 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 43% * 7 - 0% * 2 = 3.01 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0% * 0 - 100% * 1 = -1 chip.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, the best strategy is Plan 2: Raise. This strategy maximizes potential gains and aligns with my strategy improvement."}}
{"message": "", "56_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, I will put 8 more chips into the pot, making the total chips in the pot 16. This will leave me with 75 chips. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will not put any more chips into the pot. The total chips in the pot will remain 8. This will leave me with 83 chips. \n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, I will not put any more chips into the pot. The total chips in the pot will remain 8. This will leave me with 83 chips. \n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (70% probability), he will raise (90% probability). I will lose (probability = 70% * 90% = 63%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (20% probability), he will call (60% probability). I will win (probability = 20% * 60% = 12%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (10% probability), he will call (60% probability). I will win (probability = 10% * 60% = 6%).\n- Overall, the winning rate for plan 1 is 18%, the losing rate is 63%, and the draw rate is 19%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of GoodGuy's card. The losing rate for plan 2 is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (70% probability), he will raise (90% probability). I will lose (probability = 70% * 90% = 63%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (20% probability), he will call (60% probability). I will win (probability = 20% * 60% = 12%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (10% probability), he will call (60% probability). I will win (probability = 10% * 60% = 6%).\n- Overall, the winning rate for plan 3 is 18%, the losing rate is 63%, and the draw rate is 19%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which is 8 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot, which is 8 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot, which is 4 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which is 4 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot, which is 4 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = winning rate * Winning Payoff - losing rate * Lose Payoff = 18% * 8 - 63% * 8 = -3.6 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = -100% * 4 = -4 chips\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected Chips Gain = winning rate * Winning Payoff - losing rate * Lose Payoff = 18% * 4 - 63% * 4 = -1.8 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 3 (Check) has the highest expected chips gain (-1.8 chips). Therefore, I will choose Plan 3 (Check)."}}
{"message": "", "56_4": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (90% probability), he will likely raise (90% probability). If he raises, I will lose because his pair of Queens beats my single King. The probability of this happening is 0.9*0.9 = 0.81 (81%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). If he calls, I will win because my single King beats his single Jack. The probability of this happening is 0.1*0.6 = 0.06 (6%).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 6%, the losing rate is 81%, and the draw rate is 13% (100% - 6% - 81%).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (90% probability), he will likely raise (90% probability). If he raises, I will lose because his pair of Queens beats my single King. The probability of this happening is 0.9*0.9 = 0.81 (81%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). If he calls, I will win because my single King beats his single Jack. The probability of this happening is 0.1*0.6 = 0.06 (6%).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 6%, the losing rate is 81%, and the draw rate is 13% (100% - 6% - 81%).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the game and the chips I have put in the pot. The losing rate for Plan 3 is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, chips in the pot: 16. If win, the winning payoff would be 8. If lose, the lose payoff would be 8.\n- Plan 2: After the action, chips in the pot: 20. If win, the winning payoff would be 10. If lose, the lose payoff would be 10.\n- Plan 3: After the action, chips in the pot: 12. If lose, the lose payoff would be 6.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0.06*8 - 0.81*8 = -6 chips\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0.06*10 - 0.81*10 = -7.5 chips\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = -6 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nConsidering both the strategy improvement and the highest estimated expected chips gain, I should choose Plan 1: Call. This plan has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement of calling when I hold a card not matching the public card."}}
{"message": "", "57_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call - This is a conservative approach. By calling, I match GoodGuy's bet and keep the pot small. This is a safe strategy as it minimizes potential losses.\n\nPlan 2: Raise - This is an aggressive approach. By raising, I increase the pot and potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, especially if he holds a Jack.\n\nPlan 3: Fold - This is the most conservative approach. By folding, I forfeit the game and lose the chips I have already put in the pot. This strategy minimizes potential losses but also eliminates any chance of winning.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he will likely raise (70% probability) or call (30% probability). My winning rate is 0% (as King beats Queen), lose rate is 100%, and draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he will likely call (60% probability) or fold (40% probability). My winning rate is 50% (as it's a draw if the public card is not a Queen), lose rate is 0%, and draw rate is 50%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will likely fold (60% probability) or call (40% probability). My winning rate is 100% (as Queen beats Jack), lose rate is 0%, and draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he will likely raise (70% probability) or call (30% probability). My winning rate is 0%, lose rate is 100%, and draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he will likely call (60% probability) or fold (40% probability). My winning rate is 50%, lose rate is 0%, and draw rate is 50%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will likely fold (60% probability) or call (40% probability). My winning rate is 100%, lose rate is 0%, and draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, Queen, or Jack, my winning rate is 0%, lose rate is 100%, and draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (3 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (3 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (7 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (7 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 0 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 1 chip (the chip I have already put in the pot).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 0.5 * 3 - 1 * 3 = -1.5 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 0.5 * 7 - 1 * 7 = -3.5 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 0 * 0 - 1 * 1 = -1 chip\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 3 (Fold) is the best strategy as it results in the smallest expected loss of chips. However, considering the strategy improvement, Plan 1 (Call) might be a better choice as it allows for the possibility of winning and is a more balanced approach."}}
{"message": "", "57_2": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\nIf I raise, I will put 4 more chips into the pot, making the total pot 8 chips. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he is likely to call (60% probability) or fold (40% probability). If he calls, we will have a draw as we both hold a Queen. If he folds, I will win. So the winning rate is 40%, draw rate is 60%, and lose rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he is likely to fold (60% probability) or call (40% probability). If he folds, I will win. If he calls, I will lose as his Jack matches the public card. So the winning rate is 60%, draw rate is 0%, and lose rate is 40%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\nIf I fold, I will lose the game. So the winning rate is 0%, draw rate is 0%, and lose rate is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\nIf I check, I will not add any more chips to the pot.\n\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he is likely to check as well, and we will have a draw as we both hold a Queen. So the winning rate is 0%, draw rate is 100%, and lose rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he is likely to raise (70% probability) or call (30% probability). If he raises, I will lose. If he calls, I will lose as well as his Jack matches the public card. So the winning rate is 0%, draw rate is 0%, and lose rate is 100%.\n\nPlan1 overall board_game_expert's Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 50%, draw rate is 30%, and lose rate is 20%. \nPlan2 overall board_game_expert's Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 0%, draw rate is 0%, and lose rate is 100%. \nPlan3 overall board_game_expert's Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 0%, draw rate is 50%, and lose rate is 50%. \n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\nPlan1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\nPlan2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 0. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\nPlan3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 0. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\nPlan1: Expected Chips Gain = 50% * 4 - 20% * 4 = 1.2\nPlan2: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 0 - 100% * 2 = -2\nPlan3: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 0 - 50% * 2 = -1\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. This plan also aligns with my strategy improvement to be more aggressive when holding a Queen. Therefore, I will choose to raise."}}
{"message": "", "58_1": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (33.3% probability), he will likely call (70% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is not a King, I will still win (100% probability). Overall winning rate for this plan is 33.3% * 70% = 23.31%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (66.7% probability), he will likely raise (60% probability) or fold (40% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will lose (100% probability). If the public card is not a Queen, I will win (100% probability). Overall winning rate for this plan is 66.7% * 60% = 40.02%.\n- Plan 1 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate for plan 1 is 23.31% + 40.02% = 63.33%; Lose rate for plan 1 is 36.67%; Draw rate for plan 1 is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (33.3% probability), he will likely call (70% probability) or raise (30% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is not a King, I will still win (100% probability). Overall winning rate for this plan is 33.3% * 70% = 23.31%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (66.7% probability), he will likely call (50% probability) or fold (50% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will lose (100% probability). If the public card is not a Queen, I will win (100% probability). Overall winning rate for this plan is 66.7% * 50% = 33.35%.\n- Plan 2 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate for plan 2 is 23.31% + 33.35% = 56.66%; Lose rate for plan 2 is 43.34%; Draw rate for plan 2 is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will automatically lose, regardless of GoodGuy's card. Therefore, the overall winning rate for this plan is 0%; Lose rate for plan 3 is 100%; Draw rate for plan 3 is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n- Plan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n- Plan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 2. If win, the winning payoff would be 1. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Lose rate * Lose Payoff = 63.33% * 3 - 36.67% * 3 = 0.8 chips\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Lose rate * Lose Payoff = 56.66% * 4 - 43.34% * 4 = 0.53 chips\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Lose rate * Lose Payoff = 0% * 1 - 100% * 1 = -1 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. This strategy also aligns with the strategy improvement, which suggests to call when holding a King. Therefore, I will choose to call."}}
{"message": "", "58_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- I will raise the bet to 8 chips, increasing the pot to 16 chips. This will put pressure on GoodGuy and potentially force him to fold if he has a weak hand. I will say, \"Let's raise the stakes, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- I will fold, forfeiting the current game. This will result in a loss of 4 chips. I will say, \"I'll sit this one out, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- I will check, not adding any more chips to the pot. This will keep the pot at 8 chips and give GoodGuy the opportunity to raise, fold, or check. I will say, \"Your move, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (80% probability), he is likely to call (70%) or raise (30%). If he calls, I will win (70% * 80% = 56%). If he raises, I will win (30% * 80% = 24%). Overall, my winning rate is 80%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he is likely to call (50%) or fold (50%). If he calls, I will win (50% * 20% = 10%). If he folds, I will win (50% * 20% = 10%). Overall, my winning rate is 20%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will automatically lose the game, regardless of GoodGuy's card. Therefore, my losing rate is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (80% probability), he is likely to raise (80%) or check (20%). If he raises, I will lose (80% * 80% = 64%). If he checks, I will win (20% * 80% = 16%). Overall, my winning rate is 16% and my losing rate is 64%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he is likely to raise (60%) or check (40%). If he raises, I will lose (60% * 20% = 12%). If he checks, I will win (40% * 20% = 8%). Overall, my winning rate is 8% and my losing rate is 12%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which is 8 chips.\n- If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot, which is 8 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose 4 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which is 4 chips.\n- If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot, which is 4 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Losing Rate * Losing Payoff = 80% * 8 - 20% * 8 = 4.8 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = -4 chips\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Losing Rate * Losing Payoff = 24% * 4 - 76% * 4 = -2.08 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy with the highest expected chips gain of 4.8 chips. Therefore, I will choose to raise the bet."}}
{"message": "", "59_0": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability). If he raises, I will lose as King is higher than my Jack. If he checks (30% probability), it's a draw. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 49% (70%*70%), and the draw rate is 21% (70%*30%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely check (80% probability) or raise (20% probability). If he raises, I will lose as Queen is higher than my Jack. If he checks, it's a draw. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 6% (30%*20%), and the draw rate is 24% (30%*80%).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability). If he raises, I will lose as King is higher than my Jack. If he checks (30% probability), it's a draw. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 49% (70%*70%), and the draw rate is 21% (70%*30%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely call (60% probability) or raise (40% probability). If he raises or calls, I will lose as Queen is higher than my Jack. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 30% (30%*100%), and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the game regardless of GoodGuy's card. The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: If I win, the winning payoff would be 3 chips (half of the pot). If I lose, the losing payoff would be 1 chip (half of the pot).\n- Plan 2: If I win, the winning payoff would be 7 chips (half of the pot). If I lose, the losing payoff would be 3 chips (half of the pot).\n- Plan 3: If I fold, I will lose 1 chip.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: 0% * 3 chips - 55% * 1 chip = -0.55 chips\n- Plan 2: 0% * 7 chips - 79% * 3 chips = -2.37 chips\n- Plan 3: 0% * 0 chips - 100% * 1 chip = -1 chip\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (-0.55 chips). Although it's a negative gain, it's the least loss among all the plans. This plan also aligns with the strategy improvement of being more cautious when I have a weak hand."}}
{"message": "", "59_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, I can potentially force GoodGuy to fold if he has a weak hand (Jack), increasing my chances of winning the pot. However, if GoodGuy has a Queen, he is likely to call or raise, which could lead to a loss for me.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot, but I will avoid losing more chips if GoodGuy has a strong hand (Queen). This is a conservative strategy that minimizes potential losses.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, I can see GoodGuy's next action without risking more chips. This is a passive strategy that allows me to gather more information about GoodGuy's hand.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (70% probability), he is likely to fold (60% probability), leading to a win for me. If he calls (40% probability), I will lose as my Jack is lower than the public Queen.\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (30% probability), he is likely to raise (80% probability) or check (20% probability), leading to a loss for me as his Queen matches the public card.\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 70% * 60% = 42%, the losing rate is 30% * 80% + 70% * 40% = 46%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of GoodGuy's hand. The losing rate for Plan 2 is 100%, and the winning and draw rates are 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (70% probability), he is likely to check (80% probability) or fold (20% probability), leading to a win for me. If he raises (10% probability), I will lose.\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (30% probability), he is likely to raise (80% probability) or check (20% probability), leading to a loss for me.\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 3 is 70% * 80% = 56%, the losing rate is 30% * 80% + 70% * 10% = 29%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n- If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot (2 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (2 chips).\n- If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (2 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * lose payoff = 42% * 4 - 46% * 4 = -0.16 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -2 chips (as I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot)\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * lose payoff = 56% * 2 - 29% * 2 = 0.54 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 3 (Check) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. This strategy is also consistent with my strategy improvement of being more cautious when I have a weak hand. Therefore, I will choose to check."}}
{"message": "", "60_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\n- If I 'call', I will match GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips, making the total pot 8 chips. This is a conservative strategy that allows me to stay in the game without risking too many chips.\n\nPlan 2: 'Raise'\n- If I 'raise', I will increase the bet by 4 chips more than GoodGuy's current bet, making the total pot 12 chips. This is a more aggressive strategy that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy and lead to a larger payoff if I win.\n\nPlan 3: 'Fold'\n- If I 'fold', I will forfeit the round and lose any chips I have already put into the pot. This is a defensive strategy that minimizes my losses if I believe that GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (30% probability), he will likely raise (30%) or check (70%). If he raises, I have a 33% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack, and a 67% chance of losing if the public card is a Queen or King. If he checks, the outcome will depend on the public card.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely raise (40%) or check (60%). If he raises, I have a 33% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack, and a 67% chance of losing if the public card is a King or Queen. If he checks, the outcome will depend on the public card.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (20% probability), he will likely raise (20%) or check (80%). If he raises, I have a 33% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack, and a 67% chance of losing if the public card is a King or Queen. If he checks, the outcome will depend on the public card.\n\nPlan 2: 'Raise'\n- The probabilities and outcomes are the same as in Plan 1, but the potential payoff and loss are greater due to the larger pot.\n\nPlan 3: 'Fold'\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put into the pot, regardless of GoodGuy's card or action.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 4 chips (half of the 8-chip pot).\n- If I lose, the loss would be 4 chips (the 4 chips I put into the pot).\n\nPlan 2: 'Raise'\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 6 chips (half of the 12-chip pot).\n- If I lose, the loss would be 6 chips (the 6 chips I put into the pot).\n\nPlan 3: 'Fold'\n- If I fold, the loss would be 2 chips (the 2 chips I put into the pot).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * loss = (0.33 * 4) - (0.67 * 4) = -1.36 chips\n\nPlan 2: 'Raise'\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * loss = (0.33 * 6) - (0.67 * 6) = -2.04 chips\n\nPlan 3: 'Fold'\n- Expected chips gain = -2 chips (since I will lose the 2 chips I put into the pot)\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 ('Call') is the best strategy, as it has the highest expected chips gain (-1.36 chips). Although all plans result in an expected loss, Plan 1 minimizes this loss. This strategy also aligns with my strategy improvement, which suggests calling when holding a Jack in the first round."}}
{"message": "", "60_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: 'Raise'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely raise (80% probability). If he raises, I will lose as his King matches the public card. The overall lose rate for his King is 50% * 80% = 40%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely call (70% probability). If he calls, I will lose as his Queen is higher than my Jack. The overall lose rate for his Queen is 40% * 70% = 28%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely call (80% probability). If he calls, it will be a draw as we both have Jacks. The overall draw rate for his Jack is 10% * 80% = 8%.\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- If I fold, regardless of what card GoodGuy holds, I will lose. The overall lose rate is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely raise (80% probability). If he raises, I will lose as his King matches the public card. The overall lose rate for his King is 50% * 80% = 40%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely call (70% probability). If he calls, I will lose as his Queen is higher than my Jack. The overall lose rate for his Queen is 40% * 70% = 28%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely call (80% probability). If he calls, it will be a draw as we both have Jacks. The overall draw rate for his Jack is 10% * 80% = 8%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n- Plan 2: After the action, chips in the pot: 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n- Plan 3: After the action, chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0 * Winning Payoff - 68% * Lose Payoff = -2.72\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0 * Winning Payoff - 100% * Lose Payoff = -2\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0 * Winning Payoff - 68% * Lose Payoff = -1.36\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 3 ('Check') is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (-1.36). This strategy also aligns with my strategy improvement when I hold a Jack."}}
{"message": "", "61_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 2 chips. This will keep the pot small and minimize my losses if I lose the round. However, it also gives GoodGuy the opportunity to raise in the next round.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will increase the bet by 4 chips, making the total bet 6 chips. This could potentially intimidate GoodGuy and make him fold, especially if he has a weaker hand. However, it also increases my potential losses if I lose the round.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will forfeit the game and lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot. This is the safest option, but it also guarantees that I will not win the round.\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70% chance), he will likely raise (70% chance). This would result in a draw, as we both have Kings. If he holds a Queen (15% chance) or Jack (15% chance), he will likely check or raise, resulting in a win for me, as my King is higher than his Queen or Jack.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70% chance), he will likely call or raise. This would result in a draw, as we both have Kings. If he holds a Queen (15% chance) or Jack (15% chance), he will likely fold or call, resulting in a win for me, as my King is higher than his Queen or Jack.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the round regardless of what card GoodGuy holds.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 1.5 chips (3 chips in the pot / 2). If I lose, the losing payoff would be 1 chip (the amount I have already put in the pot).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 3 chips (6 chips in the pot / 2). If I lose, the losing payoff would be 3 chips (the amount I have already put in the pot).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose 1 chip (the amount I have already put in the pot).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0.7 * 1.5 - 0.3 * 1 = 0.75 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0.7 * 3 - 0.3 * 3 = 2.1 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -1 chip (as I will lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot)\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy, as it has the highest expected chips gain. However, it also has the highest potential losses. Therefore, I should consider my current chip count and the number of games left before deciding on a strategy. If I have a comfortable lead in chips and there are still many games left, I might choose to play it safe and go with Plan 1 (Call). If I am behind in chips and there are only a few games left, I might choose to take a risk and go with Plan 2 (Raise)."}}
{"message": "", "61_2": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (60% probability), he will likely raise (60%) or check (40%). If he raises, I will lose as he has a pair of Queens. If he checks, I have a chance to win if the next public card is a King. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will likely check (60%) or fold (40%). If he checks, I will win unless the next public card is a Jack. If he folds, I will win immediately. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips in the pot but avoid further loss. \n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (60% probability), he will likely raise (60%) or check (40%). If he raises, I will lose as he has a pair of Queens. If he checks, I have a chance to win if the next public card is a King. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will likely check (60%) or fold (40%). If he checks, I will win unless the next public card is a Jack. If he folds, I will win immediately. \n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\nPlan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\nPlan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\nPlan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\nPlan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0.4 * 4 - 0.6 * 4 = -0.8\nPlan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0 - 1 * 2 = -2\nPlan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0.4 * 2 - 0.6 * 2 = -0.4\n\nPlan Selection: \nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 3 (Check) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. Although it does not guarantee a win, it minimizes the potential loss."}}
{"message": "", "61_4": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet, bringing the total pot to 16 chips. This is a conservative move that allows me to stay in the game without risking too many chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will increase the bet by 8 chips, bringing the total pot to 20 chips. This is an aggressive move that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, but it also risks more of my chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will forfeit the game, losing the 4 chips I have already bet. This is a defensive move that minimizes my losses if I believe that GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (60% probability), he will likely raise (60% probability). In this case, I will lose as his pair of Queens beats my King. If he checks (40% probability), it will be a draw as neither of us has a pair and my King beats his Queen.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will likely check (60% probability). In this case, I will win as my King beats his Jack. If he raises (40% probability), it will be a draw as neither of us has a pair and my King beats his Jack.\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 24% (40% * 60%), the losing rate is 36% (60% * 60%), and the draw rate is 40% (60% * 40% + 40% * 40%).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (60% probability), he will likely fold (60% probability). In this case, I will win as he forfeits the game. If he calls (40% probability), I will lose as his pair of Queens beats my King.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will likely fold (60% probability). In this case, I will win as he forfeits the game. If he calls (40% probability), it will be a draw as neither of us has a pair and my King beats his Jack.\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 72% (60% * 60% + 40% * 60%), the losing rate is 24% (60% * 40%), and the draw rate is 4% (40% * 40%).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of what card GoodGuy holds. The losing rate for Plan 3 is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 8 chips (half of the 16-chip pot).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be 8 chips (half of the 16-chip pot).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 10 chips (half of the 20-chip pot).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be 10 chips (half of the 20-chip pot).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose 4 chips (the amount I have already bet).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = 24% * 8 - 36% * 8 = -0.96 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = 72% * 10 - 24% * 10 = 4.8 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -4 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement of always raising when I hold a King."}}
{"message": "", "62_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips, bringing the total pot to 8 chips. This action may lead GoodGuy to believe that I am confident in my hand, potentially causing him to play more cautiously in the next round.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will increase the bet by 4 chips, bringing my total bet to 6 chips and the total pot to 10 chips. This action may lead GoodGuy to believe that I have a strong hand, potentially causing him to fold if he has a weak hand.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will forfeit the round and lose the 2 chips I have already bet. This action may lead GoodGuy to believe that I had a weak hand, potentially causing him to play more aggressively in the next round.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will likely lose. If the public card is a Jack, I have a chance to win.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he will likely check (60% probability) or call (30% probability). If the public card is a King or Jack, I will likely lose. If the public card is a Queen, I have a chance to win.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely check (70% probability) or call (20% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will likely lose. If the public card is a Jack, I have a chance to win.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70% probability), he will likely call (30% probability) or fold (10% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will likely lose. If the public card is a Jack, I have a chance to win.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he will likely call (30% probability) or fold (20% probability). If the public card is a King or Jack, I will likely lose. If the public card is a Queen, I have a chance to win.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely call (20% probability) or fold (30% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will likely lose. If the public card is a Jack, I have a chance to win.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the round regardless of GoodGuy's card or the public card.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 10. If win, the winning payoff would be 5. If lose, the lose payoff would be 5.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If fold, there is no winning payoff. The lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected Chips Gain = (Winning Rate * Winning Payoff) - (Lose Rate * Lose Payoff)\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = (Winning Rate * Winning Payoff) - (Lose Rate * Lose Payoff)\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = 0 - (Lose Payoff)\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the above analysis, I would rank the plans as follows:\n\n1. Plan 2: Raise\n2. Plan 1: Call\n3. Plan 3: Fold\n\nTherefore, I would choose to execute Plan 2: Raise, as it has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement."}}
{"message": "", "62_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he will likely call (50% probability). I will lose this round as a King beats a Queen. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will likely fold (80% probability). I will win this round as a Queen beats a Jack. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the round regardless of what card GoodGuy holds. \n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he will likely raise (50% probability). I will lose this round as a King beats a Queen. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will likely check (80% probability). I will win this round as a Queen beats a Jack. \n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\nPlan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 10. If win, the winning payoff would be 5. After the action, Chips in the pot: 10. If lose, the lose payoff would be 5.\nPlan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\nPlan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\nPlan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0.4 * 5 - 0.6 * 5 = -1\nPlan 2: Expected Chips Gain = -3\nPlan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0.4 * 3 - 0.6 * 3 = -0.6\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 3 (Check) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (-0.6). Although it's still a negative gain, it's the least negative among the three plans. This strategy is also consistent with my strategy improvement, which suggests to check when I hold a Queen and the public card is a Queen."}}
{"message": "", "63_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\nPlan 2: Raise\nPlan 3: Fold\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (40% probability), he will likely raise (80% probability). I will lose as King is higher than Queen. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely call (70% probability). It will be a draw as we both have Queens.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). I will win as Queen is higher than Jack. \nOverall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 18%, the losing rate is 32%, and the draw rate is 21%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (40% probability), he will likely raise (80% probability). I will lose as King is higher than Queen. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely raise (30% probability). It will be a draw as we both have Queens.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). I will win as Queen is higher than Jack. \nOverall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 18%, the losing rate is 32%, and the draw rate is 9%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of GoodGuy's card. The losing rate for Plan 3 is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 3 chips (half of the pot of 6 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 3 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 5 chips (half of the pot of 10 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 5 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose 1 chip (the chip I have already put in the pot).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = 18% * 3 chips - 32% * 3 chips = -0.42 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = 18% * 5 chips - 32% * 5 chips = -0.7 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -1 chip\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (-0.42 chips). Although all plans result in a loss of chips, Plan 1 results in the smallest loss."}}
{"message": "", "63_2": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he will likely check (70%) or fold (30%). If he checks, I will lose (as King is higher than Queen), but if he folds, I will win. So, the winning rate is 18% (60%*30%), the losing rate is 42% (60%*70%), and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will likely check (50%) or fold (50%). If he checks, I will lose (as Jack matches the public card), but if he folds, I will win. So, the winning rate is 20% (40%*50%), the losing rate is 20% (40%*50%), and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of what card GoodGuy holds. So, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he will likely check (70%) or fold (30%). If he checks, I will lose (as King is higher than Queen), but if he folds, I will win. So, the winning rate is 18% (60%*30%), the losing rate is 42% (60%*70%), and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will likely check (50%) or fold (50%). If he checks, I will lose (as Jack matches the public card), but if he folds, I will win. So, the winning rate is 20% (40%*50%), the losing rate is 20% (40%*50%), and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\nPlan2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 2. If win, the winning payoff would be 1. After the action, Chips in the pot: 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\nPlan3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 2. If win, the winning payoff would be 1. After the action, Chips in the pot: 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n\nExpected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: 38% * 3 - 62% * 3 = -0.72\n- Plan 2: 0% * 1 - 100% * 1 = -1\n- Plan 3: 38% * 1 - 62% * 1 = -0.24\n\nPlan Selection: \nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 3 (Check) is the best strategy to follow in this round. It has the highest expected chips gain (-0.24) compared to Plan 1 (Raise, -0.72) and Plan 2 (Fold, -1)."}}
{"message": "", "64_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- This could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, especially if he holds a Jack. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- This would be a safe move, but it would mean giving up the current pot. \n\nPlan 3: Check\n- This would allow me to see the public card without risking any more chips. \n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he will likely call (20%) or check (80%). My winning rate would be 33.33%*20% = 6.67%, lose rate would be 33.33%*80% = 26.67%, and draw rate would be 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he will likely call (30%) or check (70%). My winning rate would be 33.33%*30% = 10%, lose rate would be 33.33%*70% = 23.33%, and draw rate would be 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will likely fold (10%) or check (90%). My winning rate would be 33.33%*10% = 3.33%, lose rate would be 33.33%*90% = 30%, and draw rate would be 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I automatically lose the current pot. My winning rate would be 0%, lose rate would be 100%, and draw rate would be 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he will likely call (20%) or check (80%). My winning rate would be 33.33%*20% = 6.67%, lose rate would be 33.33%*80% = 26.67%, and draw rate would be 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he will likely call (30%) or check (70%). My winning rate would be 33.33%*30% = 10%, lose rate would be 33.33%*70% = 23.33%, and draw rate would be 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will likely fold (10%) or check (90%). My winning rate would be 33.33%*10% = 3.33%, lose rate would be 33.33%*90% = 30%, and draw rate would be 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips). \n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 0 chips. \n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 2 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (2 chips). \n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (2 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 6.67%*4 - 26.67%*4 = -0.8 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 0%*0 - 100%*2 = -2 chips\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 6.67%*2 - 26.67%*2 = -0.4 chips\n\nPlan Selection: \n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 3 (Check) would be the best strategy to follow in this round. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with the strategy improvement."}}
{"message": "", "64_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call' and say, \"I'm feeling lucky today, GoodGuy.\"\nPlan 2: 'Raise' and say, \"Let's make this interesting, GoodGuy.\"\nPlan 3: 'Fold' and say, \"I'll sit this one out, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (90% probability), he will likely raise (100% probability). I will lose as his King pairs with the public card. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (5% probability), he will likely check (70% probability) or call (30% probability). I will win as my Queen is higher than his Jack.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (5% probability), he will likely check (90% probability) or fold (10% probability). I will win as my Queen is higher than his Jack.\n- Overall, the winning rate for plan 1 is 5%, the losing rate is 90%, and the drawing rate is 5%.\n\nPlan 2: 'Raise'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (90% probability), he will likely raise (100% probability). I will lose as his King pairs with the public card. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (5% probability), he will likely call (30% probability) or fold (70% probability). I will win as my Queen is higher than his Jack.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (5% probability), he will likely fold (100% probability). I will win as my Queen is higher than his Jack.\n- Overall, the winning rate for plan 2 is 10%, the losing rate is 90%, and the drawing rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: 'Fold'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (90% probability), I will lose as I forfeit the game.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (5% probability), I will lose as I forfeit the game.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (5% probability), I will lose as I forfeit the game.\n- Overall, the winning rate for plan 3 is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the drawing rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\nPlan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 10. If win, the winning payoff would be 5. If lose, the lose payoff would be 5.\nPlan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 2. If win, the winning payoff would be 1. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0.05 * 4 - 0.90 * 4 = -3.4 chips\nPlan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0.10 * 5 - 0.90 * 5 = -4 chips\nPlan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0 * 1 - 1 * 1 = -1 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 3 ('Fold') is the best strategy as it minimizes the expected loss of chips."}}
{"message": "", "65_1": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (30% probability), he will likely raise (40% probability). If the public card is a King, we will draw. If the public card is not a King, I will win. The overall winning rate is 30% * 60% = 18%, the draw rate is 30% * 40% = 12%, and the losing rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely call (70% probability) or fold (30% probability). Regardless of the public card, I will win. The overall winning rate is 40% * 100% = 40%, the draw rate is 0%, and the losing rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely call (50% probability) or fold (50% probability). Regardless of the public card, I will win. The overall winning rate is 30% * 100% = 30%, the draw rate is 0%, and the losing rate is 0%.\n- Plan 1 overall winning rate: 18% + 40% + 30% = 88%, losing rate: 0%, draw rate: 12%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (30% probability), he will likely call (60% probability) or raise (40% probability). If the public card is a King, we will draw. If the public card is not a King, I will win. The overall winning rate is 30% * 60% = 18%, the draw rate is 30% * 40% = 12%, and the losing rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely call (70% probability) or fold (30% probability). Regardless of the public card, I will win. The overall winning rate is 40% * 100% = 40%, the draw rate is 0%, and the losing rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely call (50% probability) or fold (50% probability). Regardless of the public card, I will win. The overall winning rate is 30% * 100% = 30%, the draw rate is 0%, and the losing rate is 0%.\n- Plan 2 overall winning rate: 18% + 40% + 30% = 88%, losing rate: 0%, draw rate: 12%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the game regardless of GoodGuy's card. The overall winning rate is 0%, the draw rate is 0%, and the losing rate is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n- Plan 2: After the action, chips in the pot: 10. If win, the winning payoff would be 5. If lose, the lose payoff would be 5.\n- Plan 3: After the action, chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: 88% * 3 - 0% * 3 = 2.64 chips\n- Plan 2: 88% * 5 - 0% * 5 = 4.4 chips\n- Plan 3: 0% * 2 - 100% * 2 = -2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy to maximize my chips gain."}}
{"message": "", "65_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). This results in a draw as both of us hold a King. The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 60%*60%=36%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he will likely fold (30% probability) or call (70% probability). If he folds, I win. If he calls, I still win as my King outranks his Queen. The winning rate is 20%*100%=20%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (20% probability), he will likely fold (50% probability) or call (50% probability). If he folds, I win. If he calls, I still win as my King outranks his Jack. The winning rate is 20%*100%=20%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 1 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 40%, Losing rate is 0%, Draw rate is 36%.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he will likely check (70% probability) or raise (30% probability). This results in a draw as both of us hold a King. The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 60%*100%=60%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he will likely check (60% probability) or raise (40% probability). If he checks or raises, I win as my King outranks his Queen. The winning rate is 20%*100%=20%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (20% probability), he will likely check (80% probability) or raise (20% probability). If he checks or raises, I win as my King outranks his Jack. The winning rate is 20%*100%=20%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 40%, Losing rate is 0%, Draw rate is 60%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I automatically lose the round. The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 14. If win, the winning payoff would be 7. If lose, the lose payoff would be 7.\n- Plan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 12. If win, the winning payoff would be 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 6.\n- Plan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 40% * 7 - 0% * 7 = 2.8\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 40% * 6 - 0% * 6 = 2.4\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 0% * 3 - 100% * 3 = -3\n\nPlan Selection: \nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. This strategy also aligns with the strategy improvement suggestion to raise when holding a King. Therefore, I will choose to raise."}}
{"message": "", "66_0": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (probability 1/3), he will likely raise (70%) or call (30%). If he raises, I will lose unless the public card is a Jack. If he calls, I will win if the public card is a Jack, and lose if it's a King or Queen. Overall, the winning rate is 10%, the losing rate is 90%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 1/3), he will likely call (60%) or raise (40%). If he raises, I will lose unless the public card is a Jack. If he calls, I will win if the public card is a Jack, and lose if it's a King or Queen. Overall, the winning rate is 20%, the losing rate is 80%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 1/3), he will likely call (50%) or raise (50%). If he raises, I will draw unless the public card is a King or Queen. If he calls, I will draw regardless of the public card. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 100%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (probability 1/3), he will likely raise (70%) or call (30%). If he raises, I will lose unless the public card is a Jack. If he calls, I will win if the public card is a Jack, and lose if it's a King or Queen. Overall, the winning rate is 10%, the losing rate is 90%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 1/3), he will likely call (60%) or raise (40%). If he raises, I will lose unless the public card is a Jack. If he calls, I will win if the public card is a Jack, and lose if it's a King or Queen. Overall, the winning rate is 20%, the losing rate is 80%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 1/3), he will likely call (50%) or raise (50%). If he raises, I will draw unless the public card is a King or Queen. If he calls, I will draw regardless of the public card. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the game regardless of GoodGuy's card or action. The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 3. If win, the winning payoff would be 1.5. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.5.\n- Plan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 5. If win, the winning payoff would be 2.5. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.5.\n- Plan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 1. If win, the winning payoff would be 0.5. If lose, the lose payoff would be 0.5.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0.1 * 1.5 - 0.9 * 1.5 = -1.2\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0.1 * 2.5 - 0.9 * 2.5 = -2\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0 * 0.5 - 1 * 0.5 = -0.5\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 3 (Fold) is the best strategy in this round. Although it guarantees a loss, it minimizes the expected loss of chips."}}
{"message": "", "67_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\nPlan 2: Raise\nPlan 3: Fold\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nIf GoodGuy holds a King (70% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will lose. If the public card is a Jack, I will win. Overall, the winning rate is 30%, the losing rate is 70%, and the draw rate is 0%.\nIf GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he will likely call (40% probability) or raise (60% probability). If the public card is a King, I will lose. If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will win. Overall, the winning rate is 60%, the losing rate is 40%, and the draw rate is 0%.\nIf GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely check (40% probability) or fold (60% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will win. If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw. Overall, the winning rate is 90%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 10%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf GoodGuy holds a King (70% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will lose. If the public card is a Jack, I will win. Overall, the winning rate is 30%, the losing rate is 70%, and the draw rate is 0%.\nIf GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% probability), he will likely call (40% probability) or raise (60% probability). If the public card is a King, I will lose. If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will win. Overall, the winning rate is 60%, the losing rate is 40%, and the draw rate is 0%.\nIf GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely check (40% probability) or fold (60% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will win. If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw. Overall, the winning rate is 90%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 10%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will lose the game regardless of GoodGuy's card or the public card. Therefore, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nAfter the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nAfter the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nAfter the action, Chips in the pot: 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.5.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nExpected Chips Gain = 0.3 * 2 - 0.7 * 2 = -0.8\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nExpected Chips Gain = 0.3 * 4 - 0.7 * 4 = -1.6\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nExpected Chips Gain = -1.5\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1: Call is the best strategy to use in this situation."}}
{"message": "", "67_2": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\nIf I raise, I will put 4 more chips into the pot, making the total chips in the pot 10. \n\nThe winning/losing/draw rates when GoodGuy holds a Queen: \nIf GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability based on my belief), and if he sees my raise, he will likely call (40% probability) or check (50% probability) based on his behavior pattern. If he calls, I will likely lose as we both have a Queen and the public card is a Jack. If he checks, I will likely win as I have raised and shown aggression. Overall, the winning rate for his Queen is 50%, the losing rate is 40%, and the draw rate is 10%.\n\nThe winning/losing/draw rates when GoodGuy holds a Jack: \nIf GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability based on my belief), and if he sees my raise, he will likely raise (70% probability) or call (30% probability) based on his behavior pattern. If he raises, I will likely lose as he has a pair of Jacks and I only have a Queen. If he calls, I will likely lose as well. Overall, the winning rate for his Jack is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 1 overall Winning/Losing/Draw rates: \nThe Winning rate for plan 1 is 25% (50% * 50%), the Losing rate is 70% (50% * 40% + 50% * 100%), and the Draw rate is 5% (50% * 10%).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\nIf I fold, I will forfeit the game and lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot. \n\nThe winning/losing/draw rates when GoodGuy holds a Queen or a Jack: \nIf I fold, I will lose regardless of what card GoodGuy holds. Therefore, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2 overall Winning/Losing/Draw rates: \nThe Winning rate for plan 2 is 0%, the Losing rate is 100%, and the Draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\nIf I check, no more chips will be added to the pot. \n\nThe winning/losing/draw rates when GoodGuy holds a Queen: \nIf GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability based on my belief), and if he sees my check, he will likely call (40% probability) or check (50% probability) based on his behavior pattern. If he calls, I will likely lose as we both have a Queen and the public card is a Jack. If he checks, I will likely draw as we both have a Queen. Overall, the winning rate for his Queen is 0%, the losing rate is 40%, and the draw rate is 60%.\n\nThe winning/losing/draw rates when GoodGuy holds a Jack: \nIf GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability based on my belief), and if he sees my check, he will likely raise (70% probability) or call (30% probability) based on his behavior pattern. If he raises or calls, I will likely lose as he has a pair of Jacks and I only have a Queen. Overall, the winning rate for his Jack is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3 overall Winning/Losing/Draw rates: \nThe Winning rate for plan 3 is 0%, the Losing rate is 70% (50% * 40% + 50% * 100%), and the Draw rate is 30% (50% * 60%).\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\nPlan 1: After the raise, chips in the pot: 10. If win, the winning payoff would be 5. If lose, the lose payoff would be 5.\nPlan 2: After the fold, chips in the pot: 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\nPlan 3: After the check, chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\nPlan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 25% * 5 - 70% * 5 = -2.25\nPlan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 0 - 100% * 1 = -1\nPlan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 3 - 70% * 3 = -2.1\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the above analysis, Plan 2 (Fold) has the highest expected chips gain, so I will choose Plan 2."}}
{"message": "", "68_0": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (30% probability), he will likely raise (30%) or check (70%). If he raises, I will lose unless the public card is a Jack. If he checks, the outcome will depend on the public card. Overall, the winning rate is 21%, the losing rate is 9%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely check (60%) or call (40%). If he checks or calls, the outcome will depend on the public card. Overall, the winning rate is 24%, the losing rate is 16%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely check (70%) or call (30%). If he checks or calls, it will be a draw. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 30%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (30% probability), he will likely raise (30%) or check (70%). If he raises, I will lose unless the public card is a Jack. If he checks, the outcome will depend on the public card. Overall, the winning rate is 21%, the losing rate is 9%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely call (50%) or check (50%). If he calls or checks, the outcome will depend on the public card. Overall, the winning rate is 20%, the losing rate is 20%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely call (50%) or check (50%). If he calls or checks, it will be a draw. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 30%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot. The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n- Plan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n- Plan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 1. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0.45 * 2 - 0.25 * 2 = 0.4\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0.41 * 3 - 0.29 * 3 = 0.36\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0 - 1 = -1\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy to adopt in this round."}}
{"message": "", "68_2": {"plan": "Plan 1: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (30% probability), he will likely check (50%) or call (50%). If he checks, the game will proceed to the next round without any additional chips in the pot. If he calls, he will add 4 chips to the pot. \n    - If he checks, I will likely lose (as King is higher than Jack), unless the public card changes to a Jack in the next round. \n    - If he calls, I will likely lose, unless the public card changes to a Jack in the next round. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (35% probability), he already has a winning hand. He will likely check (60%) or call (40%). \n    - If he checks, I will lose unless the public card changes to a Jack in the next round. \n    - If he calls, I will lose unless the public card changes to a Jack in the next round. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (35% probability), we have the same hand. He will likely check (60%) or call (40%). \n    - If he checks, the game will proceed to the next round without any additional chips in the pot. The game will likely end in a draw unless the public card changes. \n    - If he calls, he will add 4 chips to the pot. The game will likely end in a draw unless the public card changes. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot. However, I will avoid losing any additional chips. \n\nPlan 3: Raise\n- If I raise, I will add 4 chips to the pot. \n- If GoodGuy holds a King (30% probability), he will likely call (60%) or raise (40%). \n    - If he calls, I will likely lose unless the public card changes to a Jack in the next round. \n    - If he raises, I will likely lose unless the public card changes to a Jack in the next round. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (35% probability), he already has a winning hand. He will likely call (50%) or check (50%). \n    - If he calls, I will lose unless the public card changes to a Jack in the next round. \n    - If he checks, I will lose unless the public card changes to a Jack in the next round. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (35% probability), we have the same hand. He will likely call (50%) or check (50%). \n    - If he calls, the game will likely end in a draw unless the public card changes. \n    - If he checks, the game will likely end in a draw unless the public card changes. \n\nBased on the above analysis, the expected chips gain for each plan is as follows:\n- Plan 1: Check: -2 chips (100% lose rate)\n- Plan 2: Fold: -2 chips (100% lose rate)\n- Plan 3: Raise: -6 chips (100% lose rate)\n\nConsidering both the strategy improvement and the highest estimated expected chips gain, I should choose Plan 2: Fold. This plan minimizes my potential loss in this round."}}
{"message": "", "69_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\nIn this plan, I will match the current highest bet, which is 2 chips. This will bring the total chips in the pot to 5. \n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIn this plan, I will increase the bet by 4 chips. This will bring the total chips in the pot to 7. \n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIn this plan, I will forfeit the game. This will result in a loss of 1 chip. \n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nIf GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely call (50% probability). If the public card is a King, I will lose (100% probability). If the public card is a Queen or a Jack, I will win (50% probability) or draw (50% probability). \nIf GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely call (50% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will lose (100% probability). If the public card is a King or a Jack, I will win (50% probability) or draw (50% probability). \nOverall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 25%, the losing rate is 50%, and the draw rate is 25%. \n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely call (50% probability). If the public card is a King, I will lose (100% probability). If the public card is a Queen or a Jack, I will win (50% probability) or draw (50% probability). \nIf GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely fold (50% probability). If the public card is a Queen, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is a King or a Jack, I will win (50% probability) or draw (50% probability). \nOverall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 37.5%, the losing rate is 25%, and the draw rate is 37.5%. \n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will lose 100% of the time. \n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nAfter the action, chips in the pot: 5. If win, the winning payoff would be 2.5 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.5 chips. \n\nPlan 2: Raise\nAfter the action, chips in the pot: 7. If win, the winning payoff would be 3.5 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.5 chips. \n\nPlan 3: Fold\nAfter the action, chips in the pot: 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.5 chips. \n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nExpected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 25% * 2.5 - 50% * 2.5 = -0.625 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nExpected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 37.5% * 3.5 - 25% * 3.5 = 0.4375 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nExpected chips gain = -1.5 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2: Raise is the best strategy to follow in this round."}}
{"message": "", "69_2": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\nIf I raise, I will put 8 more chips into the pot, making the total pot 16 chips. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (probability 33.33%), he will likely fold (probability 50%) or call (probability 50%). If he folds, I win. If he calls, I win because my pair of Jacks beats his King. So, the winning rate for this plan is 100%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 33.33%), he will likely fold (probability 50%) or call (probability 50%). If he folds, I win. If he calls, I win because my pair of Jacks beats his Queen. So, the winning rate for this plan is 100%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 33.33%), he will likely call (probability 100%). If he calls, it's a draw because we both have a pair of Jacks. So, the draw rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPlan 2: Check\nIf I check, no additional chips are put into the pot, keeping the total pot at 8 chips.\n\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (probability 33.33%), he will likely check (probability 100%). If he checks, I win because my pair of Jacks beats his King. So, the winning rate for this plan is 100%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 33.33%), he will likely check (probability 100%). If he checks, I win because my pair of Jacks beats his Queen. So, the winning rate for this plan is 100%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 33.33%), he will likely raise (probability 100%). If he raises, it's a draw because we both have a pair of Jacks. So, the draw rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I lose the round and GoodGuy wins the pot. This plan has a 100% lose rate.\n\nExpected Chips Gain:\n- Plan 1: Winning rate (100%) * Winning Payoff (8 chips) - Lose rate (0%) * Lose Payoff (8 chips) = 8 chips\n- Plan 2: Winning rate (66.67%) * Winning Payoff (4 chips) - Lose rate (0%) * Lose Payoff (4 chips) = 2.67 chips\n- Plan 3: Winning rate (0%) * Winning Payoff (0 chips) - Lose rate (100%) * Lose Payoff (4 chips) = -4 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy to maximize my chips gain. Therefore, I will choose to raise."}}
{"message": "", "70_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips, bringing the total pot to 10 chips. This will allow me to see the public card and make a more informed decision in the next round.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will put 8 chips in the pot, bringing the total pot to 14 chips. This will put pressure on GoodGuy and may cause him to fold if he has a weaker hand.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot. However, this may be the best option if I believe GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy has a King (50% chance), he will likely call (70% chance) or raise (30% chance). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will lose. If the public card is a Jack, I will win. Therefore, my estimated winning rate is 15%, losing rate is 35%, and drawing rate is 50%.\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (33.33% chance), he will likely check (80% chance) or raise (20% chance). If the public card is a King, I will lose. If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will win. Therefore, my estimated winning rate is 26.67%, losing rate is 6.67%, and drawing rate is 66.67%.\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (16.67% chance), he will likely check (90% chance) or raise (10% chance). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will lose. If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw. Therefore, my estimated winning rate is 0%, losing rate is 15%, and drawing rate is 85%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a King (50% chance), he will likely call (70% chance) or raise (30% chance). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will lose. If the public card is a Jack, I will win. Therefore, my estimated winning rate is 15%, losing rate is 35%, and drawing rate is 50%.\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (33.33% chance), he will likely fold (40% chance) or call (60% chance). If the public card is a King, I will lose. If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will win. Therefore, my estimated winning rate is 20%, losing rate is 13.33%, and drawing rate is 66.67%.\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (16.67% chance), he will likely fold (70% chance) or call (30% chance). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will lose. If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw. Therefore, my estimated winning rate is 0%, losing rate is 5%, and drawing rate is 95%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot. Therefore, my estimated winning rate is 0%, losing rate is 100%, and drawing rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 5 chips (half of the 10-chip pot).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be 2 chips (the chips I have already put in the pot).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 7 chips (half of the 14-chip pot).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be 6 chips (the chips I have already put in the pot).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, the losing payoff would be 2 chips (the chips I have already put in the pot).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = 0.15 * 5 - 0.35 * 2 = -0.25 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = 0.15 * 7 - 0.35 * 6 = -1.05 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, I should choose Plan 1: Call. This plan has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement of calling to see the public card when I hold a Jack."}}
{"message": "", "70_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, I might pressure GoodGuy into folding, especially if he holds a Jack. I could also potentially win more chips if GoodGuy decides to call or raise. However, this is a risky move as I only hold a Jack and the public card is a Queen.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put into the pot, but I will avoid losing more chips. This is a safe move considering that I only hold a Jack and the public card is a Queen.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, I will not put more chips into the pot. This is a neutral move that allows me to see the next public card without risking more chips.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (65% probability), he will likely call (60%) or raise (40%). I will likely lose as his Queen pairs with the public card.\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (20% probability), he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%). I will likely lose as his King is higher than my Jack.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (15% probability), he will likely fold (70%) or call (30%). I have a chance to win if he folds, but it will be a draw if he calls.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put into the pot, regardless of GoodGuy's card.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (65% probability), he will likely check (80%) or raise (20%). I will likely lose as his Queen pairs with the public card.\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (20% probability), he will likely check (60%) or raise (40%). I will likely lose as his King is higher than my Jack.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (15% probability), he will likely check (90%) or raise (10%). It will be a draw if he checks, but I have a chance to win if he raises.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (currently 4 chips, will be 8 chips after my raise). If I lose, the lose payoff would be the chips I put into the pot (currently 2 chips, will be 6 chips after my raise).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put into the pot (2 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (currently 4 chips). If I lose, the lose payoff would be the chips I put into the pot (2 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = (15% * 4 chips) - (85% * 6 chips) = -3.9 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -2 chips (as I will lose the chips I have already put into the pot)\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = (15% * 2 chips) - (85% * 2 chips) = -1.4 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, Plan 3: Check is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (-1.4 chips). Although this is still a loss, it is the smallest loss among the three plans. This plan also aligns with my strategy improvement, which suggests that I should check when I hold a Jack."}}
{"message": "", "71_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\nPlan 2: Raise\nPlan 3: Fold\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he will likely raise (40%) or check (60%). If he raises, I will likely lose (70%) or draw (30%). If he checks, I will likely win (60%) or draw (40%). Overall, my winning rate is 24%, losing rate is 58%, and drawing rate is 18%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he will likely raise (20%) or check (80%). If he raises, I will likely lose (50%) or draw (50%). If he checks, I will likely win (80%) or draw (20%). Overall, my winning rate is 66%, losing rate is 10%, and drawing rate is 24%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will likely raise (10%) or check (90%). If he raises, I will likely win (70%) or draw (30%). If he checks, I will likely win (90%) or draw (10%). Overall, my winning rate is 85%, losing rate is 0%, and drawing rate is 15%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he will likely call (70%) or fold (30%). If he calls, I will likely lose (70%) or draw (30%). If he folds, I will win (100%). Overall, my winning rate is 37%, losing rate is 49%, and drawing rate is 14%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he will likely call (60%) or fold (40%). If he calls, I will likely lose (50%) or draw (50%). If he folds, I will win (100%). Overall, my winning rate is 70%, losing rate is 30%, and drawing rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will likely call (30%) or fold (70%). If he calls, I will likely win (70%) or draw (30%). If he folds, I will win (100%). Overall, my winning rate is 91%, losing rate is 0%, and drawing rate is 9%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, Queen, or Jack, I will lose (100%). Overall, my winning rate is 0%, losing rate is 100%, and drawing rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 3 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 2 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 7 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 4 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 1 chip.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected Chips Gain = 24% * 3 - 58% * 2 = -0.56 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = 37% * 7 - 49% * 4 = 0.59 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = -1 chip\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2: Raise is the best strategy to follow in this round."}}
{"message": "", "71_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he is likely to call (70%) or raise (30%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he is likely to call (60%) or fold (40%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he is likely to fold (70%) or call (30%).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- This action will result in a loss of the current game, but it may save chips for future games.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he is likely to check (60%) or raise (40%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he is likely to check (80%) or raise (20%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he is likely to check (90%) or raise (10%).\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he is likely to call (70%) or raise (30%). The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the drawing rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he is likely to call (60%) or fold (40%). The winning rate is 100%, the losing rate is 0%, and the drawing rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he is likely to fold (70%) or call (30%). The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the drawing rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- This action will result in a loss of the current game, but it may save chips for future games. The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the drawing rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he is likely to check (60%) or raise (40%). The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the drawing rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he is likely to check (80%) or raise (20%). The winning rate is 100%, the losing rate is 0%, and the drawing rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he is likely to check (90%) or raise (10%). The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the drawing rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 4 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 4 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 0 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 2 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 2 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 2 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0 * 4 - 1 * 4 = -4 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0 * 0 - 1 * 2 = -2 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0 * 2 - 1 * 2 = -2 chips.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2: Fold and Plan 3: Check are the best strategies to use in this round. However, considering the strategy improvement, Plan 1: Raise may be a better choice in the long run. Therefore, I will choose Plan 1: Raise."}}
{"message": "", "72_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- This action could potentially confuse GoodGuy and make him believe that I have a higher-ranking card. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- This action would minimize my loss in this round, but it could also make GoodGuy believe that I have a lower-ranking card in future rounds.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- This action would keep the pot the same and give me a chance to see the public card in the next round. \n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (30% probability), he will likely call (70% probability) or raise (30% probability). If he calls, I will likely lose (70% probability). If he raises, I will likely lose (90% probability). Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely fold (60% probability) or call (40% probability). If he folds, I will likely win (100% probability). If he calls, I will likely lose (60% probability). Overall, the winning rate is 60%, the losing rate is 40%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% probability), he will likely fold (80% probability) or call (20% probability). If he folds, I will likely win (100% probability). If he calls, it will likely be a draw (100% probability). Overall, the winning rate is 80%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 20%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, Queen, or Jack, I will lose 100% of the time. The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, Queen, or Jack, the outcome will depend on the public card in the next round. The winning, losing, and draw rates cannot be determined at this stage.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 2. If win, the winning payoff would be 1. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 2. If win, the winning payoff would be 1. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 0% * 3 - 100% * 3 = -3 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 0% * 1 - 100% * 1 = -1 chip\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected Chips Gain cannot be determined at this stage.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nConsidering both the strategy improvement and the highest estimated expected chips gain, I would choose Plan 3: Check. This plan gives me a chance to see the public card in the next round and make a more informed decision."}}
{"message": "", "72_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70% probability), he will likely raise (30% probability). I will lose as a King beats my pair of Jacks. If he checks or calls (70% probability), I will win as my pair of Jacks beats his King. Overall, the winning rate is 49% (70% * 70%), and the losing rate is 21% (70% * 30%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely check (70% probability) or raise (30% probability). In both cases, I will win as my pair of Jacks beats his Queen. Overall, the winning rate is 30% (30% * 100%).\n- Plan 1 overall Winning/Lose rates: Winning rate is 79% (49% + 30%), and losing rate is 21%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70% probability), he will likely call (70% probability) or raise (30% probability). I will lose as a King beats my pair of Jacks. Overall, the losing rate is 70% (70% * 100%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely fold (60% probability) or call (40% probability). In both cases, I will win as my pair of Jacks beats his Queen. Overall, the winning rate is 30% (30% * 100%).\n- Plan 2 overall Winning/Lose rates: Winning rate is 30%, and losing rate is 70%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot. The losing rate is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n- Plan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 12. If win, the winning payoff would be 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 6.\n- Plan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Losing rate * Losing Payoff = 79% * 4 - 21% * 4 = 2.32\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 30% * 6 - 70% * 6 = -2.4\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = -1 (as I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot)\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. This strategy also aligns with my strategy improvement to consider calling more often when I hold a Jack."}}
{"message": "", "73_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 2 chips. This is a conservative strategy that allows me to see the public card without risking too many chips. \n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will increase the bet by 4 chips to a total of 6 chips. This is a more aggressive strategy that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, especially if he has a weak hand.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will forfeit the game and lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot. This is the most conservative strategy and should only be used if I believe that GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he will likely raise (30%) or check (70%). If he raises, I have a 50% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack, and a 50% chance of losing if the public card is a King or Queen. If he checks, I have a 100% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack, and a 0% chance of winning if the public card is a King or Queen.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he will likely call (40%) or check (60%). If he calls, I have a 50% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack, and a 50% chance of losing if the public card is a King or Queen. If he checks, I have a 100% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack, and a 0% chance of winning if the public card is a King or Queen.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will likely fold (50%) or check (50%). If he folds, I win the game. If he checks, I have a 50% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack, and a 50% chance of losing if the public card is a King or Queen.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he will likely call (60%) or raise (40%). If he calls, I have a 50% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack, and a 50% chance of losing if the public card is a King or Queen. If he raises, I have a 50% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack, and a 50% chance of losing if the public card is a King or Queen.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he will likely fold (50%) or call (50%). If he folds, I win the game. If he calls, I have a 50% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack, and a 50% chance of losing if the public card is a King or Queen.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will likely fold (80%) or call (20%). If he folds, I win the game. If he calls, I have a 50% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack, and a 50% chance of losing if the public card is a King or Queen.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I lose the game regardless of what card GoodGuy holds.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 2 chips (half of the pot).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be 1 chip (the chip I have already put in the pot).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 3 chips (half of the pot).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be 3 chips (the chips I have put in the pot).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, the losing payoff would be 1 chip (the chip I have already put in the pot).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = 0.5 * 2 - 0.5 * 1 = 0.5 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = 0.5 * 3 - 0.5 * 3 = 0 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -1 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy. It has the highest expected chips gain and is a conservative strategy that allows me to see the public card without risking too many chips."}}
{"message": "", "73_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, I can potentially increase the pot and my potential winnings. This is a good strategy since I have a strong hand (Jack) and the public card is also a Jack. \n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If I check, I can potentially confuse GoodGuy and make him think that I have a weak hand. This can lead to him raising the bet and increasing the pot, which can increase my potential winnings.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Folding is not a good strategy in this situation since I have a strong hand. However, it can be considered as a bluffing strategy to confuse GoodGuy.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (35% probability), he will likely fold (80% probability). This means I will win the round with a probability of 0.35*0.8 = 0.28 (28%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely fold (80% probability). This means I will win the round with a probability of 0.3*0.8 = 0.24 (24%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (35% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability) or call (30% probability). This means the round will be a draw with a probability of 0.35*1 = 0.35 (35%).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 28% + 24% = 52%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 35%.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (35% probability), he will likely check (80% probability). This means I will win the round with a probability of 0.35*0.8 = 0.28 (28%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely check (70% probability). This means I will win the round with a probability of 0.3*0.7 = 0.21 (21%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (35% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability) or call (30% probability). This means the round will be a draw with a probability of 0.35*1 = 0.35 (35%).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 28% + 21% = 49%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 35%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the round regardless of GoodGuy's card. Therefore, the winning rate for Plan 3 is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = winning rate * Winning Payoff - lose rate * Lose Payoff = 0.52*3 - 0*3 = 1.56\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- Expected Chips Gain = winning rate * Winning Payoff - lose rate * Lose Payoff = 0.49*2 - 0*2 = 0.98\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = winning rate * Winning Payoff - lose rate * Lose Payoff = 0*2 - 1*2 = -2\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy in this situation. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement of always raising when I have a strong hand. Therefore, I will choose to raise in this round."}}
{"message": "", "74_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- This is a safe move that matches my current chips in the pot with GoodGuy's. It doesn't reveal much about my hand and keeps me in the game.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- This is a more aggressive move that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, especially if he holds a Queen or King. However, it also risks losing more chips if GoodGuy decides to call or raise.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- This is the most cautious move. It would result in losing the chips I've already put in the pot, but it also minimizes potential losses if GoodGuy holds a higher card.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (15% chance), he might raise (30% chance) or check (70% chance). If he raises, I have a 20% chance of winning (if the public card is a Jack), 80% chance of losing. If he checks, it's a draw.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (15% chance), he might call (40% chance) or check (60% chance). If he calls, I have a 20% chance of winning, 80% chance of losing. If he checks, it's a draw.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (70% chance), he might call (30% chance) or check (70% chance). If he calls or checks, it's a draw.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (15% chance), he might call (20% chance) or fold (80% chance). If he calls, I have a 20% chance of winning, 80% chance of losing. If he folds, I win.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (15% chance), he might call (40% chance) or fold (60% chance). If he calls, I have a 20% chance of winning, 80% chance of losing. If he folds, I win.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (70% chance), he might call (30% chance) or fold (70% chance). If he calls, it's a draw. If he folds, I win.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I lose regardless of what card GoodGuy holds.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (3 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (3 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (5 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (5 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I lose 1 chip.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = 0.15 * (0.3 * 3 - 0.7 * 3) + 0.15 * (0.4 * 3 - 0.6 * 3) + 0.7 * 0 = -0.9 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = 0.15 * (0.2 * 5 - 0.8 * 5) + 0.15 * (0.4 * 5 - 0.6 * 5) + 0.7 * 5 = 1.75 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -1 chip\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement of being more aggressive when holding a Jack. However, it's also the riskiest strategy. If I want to play it safe, Plan 1 (Call) would be a better choice."}}
{"message": "", "74_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- I can raise the bet to 8 chips, which would put pressure on GoodGuy and potentially force him to fold if he doesn't have a strong hand. \n\nPlan 2: Check\n- I can check, which would give GoodGuy the opportunity to act first in the next round. This could give me more information about his hand based on his action.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- I can fold, which would mean I lose the current pot but potentially save chips in the long run if GoodGuy has a stronger hand. However, given my current strong hand, this is not a recommended strategy.\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (45% probability), he will likely fold (60% probability). This would result in a win for me.\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (55% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). This would result in a win for me as my pair of Jacks beats his King high.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (45% probability), he will likely check (100% probability). This would result in a win for me.\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (55% probability), he will likely raise (30% probability). This would result in a win for me as my pair of Jacks beats his King high.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I automatically lose the current pot. Therefore, the lose rate is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 8 chips.\n- If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 8 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 4 chips.\n- If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 4 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I automatically lose the current pot, which would be 4 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = (1.0 * 8) - (0.0 * 8) = 8 chips\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = (1.0 * 4) - (0.0 * 4) = 4 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = (0.0 * 0) - (1.0 * 4) = -4 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. This strategy also aligns with my strategy improvement to raise more aggressively when I hold a strong hand. Therefore, I will choose to raise in this round."}}
{"message": "", "75_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 2 chips, bringing the total pot to 5 chips. This is a safe play that allows me to see the public card without risking too many chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will increase the bet by 4 chips, bringing my total bet to 5 chips and the total pot to 8 chips. This is a more aggressive play that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, especially if he has a Jack.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will forfeit the game and lose the 1 chip I have already bet. This is the most conservative play and should only be considered if I believe GoodGuy has a King.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy has a King, he will likely check (70%) or call (30%). My winning rate is 0% (as King beats Queen), lose rate is 100%, and draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen, he will likely check (60%) or call (40%). My winning rate is 0% (as it would be a draw), lose rate is 0%, and draw rate is 100%.\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack, he will likely check (50%) or call (50%). My winning rate is 100% (as Queen beats Jack), lose rate is 0%, and draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a King, he will likely call (30%) or raise (70%). My winning rate is 0%, lose rate is 100%, and draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen, he will likely call (40%) or fold (60%). My winning rate is 0%, lose rate is 0%, and draw rate is 100%.\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack, he will likely call (50%) or fold (50%). My winning rate is 100%, lose rate is 0%, and draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I automatically lose, so my winning rate is 0%, lose rate is 100%, and draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 2.5 chips (half of the 5-chip pot).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be 1 chip (the amount I have bet).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 4 chips (half of the 8-chip pot).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be 5 chips (the amount I have bet).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, the losing payoff would be 1 chip (the amount I have bet).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = 0.33 * 2.5 - 0.33 * 1 = 0.165 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = 0.33 * 4 - 0.33 * 5 = -0.33 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -1 chip (as I automatically lose)\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. This strategy also aligns with my strategy improvement, which suggests calling when I hold a Queen and the public card has not been revealed yet."}}
{"message": "", "75_2": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (probability 33.33%):\n  - He will call (probability 60%) and I will lose (probability 100%).\n  - He will raise (probability 40%) and I will lose (probability 100%).\n  - Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the drawing rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 33.33%):\n  - He will call (probability 50%) and I will win (probability 100%).\n  - He will fold (probability 50%) and I will win (probability 100%).\n  - Overall, the winning rate is 100%, the losing rate is 0%, and the drawing rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 33.33%):\n  - He will call (probability 30%) and I will lose (probability 100%).\n  - He will fold (probability 70%) and I will win (probability 100%).\n  - Overall, the winning rate is 70%, the losing rate is 30%, and the drawing rate is 0%.\n- Plan 1 overall winning rate is 56.67%, losing rate is 43.33%, and drawing rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips in the pot regardless of GoodGuy's cards.\n- Plan 2 overall winning rate is 0%, losing rate is 100%, and drawing rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (probability 33.33%):\n  - He will check (probability 100%) and I will lose (probability 100%).\n  - Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the drawing rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (probability 33.33%):\n  - He will check (probability 100%) and I will win (probability 100%).\n  - Overall, the winning rate is 100%, the losing rate is 0%, and the drawing rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 33.33%):\n  - He will check (probability 100%) and I will lose (probability 100%).\n  - Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the drawing rate is 0%.\n- Plan 3 overall winning rate is 33.33%, losing rate is 66.67%, and drawing rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n- Plan 2: After the action, chips in the pot: 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n- Plan 3: After the action, chips in the pot: 2. If win, the winning payoff would be 1. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: 56.67% * 2 - 43.33% * 2 = 0.267\n- Plan 2: 0% * 0 - 100% * 1 = -1\n- Plan 3: 33.33% * 1 - 66.67% * 1 = -0.333\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy to implement in this round."}}
{"message": "", "76_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy raises, I will call.\n- If GoodGuy checks, I will check.\n- If GoodGuy folds, I will win the pot.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy raises, I will raise again.\n- If GoodGuy checks, I will raise.\n- If GoodGuy folds, I will win the pot.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If GoodGuy raises, I will fold.\n- If GoodGuy checks, I will fold.\n- If GoodGuy folds, it will be a draw.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he will call (70% probability) or raise (30% probability). The winning rate is 50%, the losing rate is 50%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he will check (90% probability) or raise (10% probability). The winning rate is 100%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will check (100% probability). The winning rate is 100%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he will call (70% probability) or raise (30% probability). The winning rate is 50%, the losing rate is 50%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he will fold (40% probability) or call (60% probability). The winning rate is 100%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will fold (80% probability) or call (20% probability). The winning rate is 100%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, Queen, or Jack, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 3 chips.\n- If lose, the losing payoff would be 1 chip.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 7 chips.\n- If lose, the losing payoff would be 3 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 0 chips.\n- If lose, the losing payoff would be 1 chip.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = 0.5 * 3 - 0.5 * 1 = 1 chip.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = 0.83 * 7 - 0.17 * 3 = 5.41 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = 0 * 0 - 1 * 1 = -1 chip.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy to use in this round."}}
{"message": "", "76_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, GoodGuy will likely believe I have a King. If GoodGuy has a Queen, he may fold (40% probability) or call (60% probability). If GoodGuy has a Jack, he will likely fold (80% probability) or call (20% probability).\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If I check, GoodGuy will likely believe I have a Queen or Jack. If GoodGuy has a King, he may check (80% probability) or raise (20% probability). If GoodGuy has a Queen or Jack, he will likely check.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, GoodGuy will likely believe I have a Jack. However, this is not a good strategy as I have a strong hand.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (80% probability), he may fold (40% probability, I win) or call (60% probability, I win). \n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (20% probability), he may fold (80% probability, I win) or call (20% probability, I win). \n- Overall winning rate for Plan 1 is 100%.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If GoodGuy has a King (0% probability), he may check (80% probability, draw) or raise (20% probability, draw). \n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (80% probability), he will check (100% probability, I win). \n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (20% probability), he will check (100% probability, I win). \n- Overall winning rate for Plan 2 is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I automatically lose the round. Therefore, the overall winning rate for Plan 3 is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips). \n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips). \n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I lose the round and the lose payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 1.0 * 8 - 0 * 8 = 8 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 1.0 * 4 - 0 * 4 = 4 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 0 * 4 - 1.0 * 4 = -4 chips.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. This plan also aligns with my strategy improvement, which suggests raising when I have a strong hand and GoodGuy calls or checks. Therefore, I will choose Plan 1 (Raise)."}}
{"message": "", "77_0": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\nIf I call, I will put 1 more chip in the pot, making the total chips in the pot 4. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (2/5 probability), he will likely check (60% probability) or raise (40% probability). If he checks, the public card will determine the outcome. If he raises, I will likely lose unless the public card is a Jack. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (2/5 probability), he will likely check (80% probability) or raise (20% probability). If he checks, the public card will determine the outcome. If he raises, I will likely lose unless the public card is a Jack. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (1/5 probability), he will likely check (90% probability) or raise (10% probability). If he checks or raises, the outcome will be a draw unless the public card is a Queen or King.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf I raise, I will put 5 chips in the pot, making the total chips in the pot 8. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (2/5 probability), he will likely call (70% probability) or raise (30% probability). If he calls or raises, I will likely lose unless the public card is a Jack. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (2/5 probability), he will likely call (50% probability) or fold (50% probability). If he calls, I will likely lose unless the public card is a Jack. If he folds, I will win the pot. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (1/5 probability), he will likely fold (70% probability) or call (30% probability). If he folds, I will win the pot. If he calls, the outcome will be a draw unless the public card is a Queen or King.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot. \n\nExpected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\nPlan 1: (2/5 * 60% * 1/2 + 2/5 * 80% * 1/2 + 1/5 * 90% * 1/2) * 2 - (2/5 * 40% + 2/5 * 20% + 1/5 * 10%) * 2 = -0.2 chips\nPlan 2: (2/5 * 70% * 1/2 + 2/5 * 50% * 1/2 + 1/5 * 70% * 1/2) * 4 - (2/5 * 30% + 2/5 * 50% + 1/5 * 30%) * 4 = -0.8 chips\nPlan 3: -1 chip\n\nPlan Selection:\nConsidering both the strategy improvement and the highest estimated expected chips gain, I should choose Plan 1: Call."}}
{"message": "", "77_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- I could raise the bet to 4 chips, which would put pressure on GoodGuy. This could potentially lead him to fold, especially if he is holding a Jack. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Given that I have a Jack and the public card is a King, I could choose to fold. This would mean I lose the round, but I would only lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- I could choose to check, which would mean I do not add any additional chips to the pot. This could be a good strategy if I believe GoodGuy is likely to fold or check as well.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he is likely to call (70% probability) or raise (30% probability). If he calls, I would lose as his King would beat my Jack. If he raises, I would also lose as his King would beat my Jack. Therefore, the overall winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I automatically lose the round. Therefore, the overall winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he is likely to check (60% probability) or raise (40% probability). If he checks, I would lose as his King would beat my Jack. If he raises, I would also lose as his King would beat my Jack. Therefore, the overall winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 6 chips (half of the 12 chips in the pot). If I lose, the lose payoff would be 6 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 2 chips (half of the 4 chips in the pot). If I lose, the lose payoff would be 2 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0% * 6 chips - 100% * 6 chips = -6 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0% * 0 chips - 100% * 2 chips = -2 chips\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0% * 2 chips - 100% * 2 chips = -2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, Plan 2: Fold and Plan 3: Check are the best strategies as they result in the least loss of chips. However, considering the strategy improvement, Plan 2: Fold is the best strategy as it minimizes my losses when I hold a Jack."}}
{"message": "", "78_1": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely raise (30%) or call (70%). If he raises, I will lose unless the public card is a Jack. If he calls, I will win if the public card is a Jack, and lose if it is a Queen or King. Overall, my winning rate is 35%, losing rate is 65%, and draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely call (60%) or fold (40%). If he calls, I will win if the public card is a Jack, and lose if it is a Queen or King. If he folds, I will win. Overall, my winning rate is 64%, losing rate is 36%, and draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely fold (70%) or call (30%). If he folds, I will win. If he calls, it will be a draw. Overall, my winning rate is 70%, losing rate is 0%, and draw rate is 30%.\n- Plan 1 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 50.9%, Losing rate is 44.1%, Draw rate is 5%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%). If he calls or raises, I will lose unless the public card is a Jack. Overall, my winning rate is 35%, losing rate is 65%, and draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely fold (40%) or call (60%). If he folds, I will win. If he calls, I will win if the public card is a Jack, and lose if it is a Queen or King. Overall, my winning rate is 64%, losing rate is 36%, and draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely fold (70%) or call (30%). If he folds, I will win. If he calls, it will be a draw. Overall, my winning rate is 70%, losing rate is 0%, and draw rate is 30%.\n- Plan 2 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 50.9%, Losing rate is 44.1%, Draw rate is 5%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips in the pot. My winning rate is 0%, losing rate is 100%, and draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n- Plan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n- Plan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 50.9% * 3 - 44.1% * 3 = 0.204\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 50.9% * 4 - 44.1% * 4 = 0.272\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = -100% * 1 = -1\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy to follow. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement to play more aggressively."}}
{"message": "", "78_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely raise (90% probability). If this happens, I will lose as his pair of Kings beats my single Jack. The overall losing rate for this scenario is 45% (50% * 90%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely call (60% probability) or fold (40% probability). If he calls, I will win as my Jack beats his Queen. If he folds, I will also win. The overall winning rate for this scenario is 30% (30% * 100%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (20% probability), he will likely call (50% probability) or fold (50% probability). If he calls, it will be a draw as we both have a Jack. If he folds, I will win. The overall winning rate for this scenario is 10% (20% * 50%), and the draw rate is 10% (20% * 50%).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips in the pot regardless of GoodGuy's cards. The overall losing rate for this scenario is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely raise (90% probability). If this happens, I will lose as his pair of Kings beats my single Jack. The overall losing rate for this scenario is 45% (50% * 90%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely call (60% probability) or fold (40% probability). If he calls, I will win as my Jack beats his Queen. If he folds, I will also win. The overall winning rate for this scenario is 30% (30% * 100%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (20% probability), he will likely call (50% probability) or fold (50% probability). If he calls, it will be a draw as we both have a Jack. If he folds, I will win. The overall winning rate for this scenario is 10% (20% * 50%), and the draw rate is 10% (20% * 50%).\n\nExpected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Winning rate (40%) * Winning Payoff (3 chips) - Losing rate (45%) * Losing Payoff (3 chips) = 0.15 chips\n- Plan 2: Winning rate (0%) * Winning Payoff (0 chips) - Losing rate (100%) * Losing Payoff (3 chips) = -3 chips\n- Plan 3: Winning rate (40%) * Winning Payoff (3 chips) - Losing rate (45%) * Losing Payoff (3 chips) = 0.15 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) and Plan 3 (Check) are the best strategies as they both have the highest expected chips gain (0.15 chips). However, considering the strategy improvement, Plan 1 (Raise) is the better choice as it aligns with the strategy of playing more aggressively when holding a Jack."}}
{"message": "", "79_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- This action will put pressure on GoodGuy, especially if he holds a Jack or Queen. \n\nPlan 2: Check\n- This action will give me more information about GoodGuy's hand based on his next action. \n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- This action is not recommended as I hold a King, which is the highest rank card. \n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (2% chance), he will likely call (80% chance) or raise (20% chance). I will win if the public card is a King or higher than GoodGuy's card. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (8% chance), he will likely call (60% chance) or fold (40% chance). I will win unless the public card is a Queen. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (90% chance), he will likely fold (70% chance) or call (30% chance). I will win unless the public card is a Jack. \n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (2% chance), he will likely check (70% chance) or raise (30% chance). I will win if the public card is a King or higher than GoodGuy's card. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (8% chance), he will likely check (80% chance) or raise (20% chance). I will win unless the public card is a Queen. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (90% chance), he will likely check (90% chance) or raise (10% chance). I will win unless the public card is a Jack. \n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- This action will result in a loss regardless of GoodGuy's card. \n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (6 chips). \n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (6 chips). \n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips). \n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips). \n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (2 chips). \n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = (0.98 * 6) - (0.02 * 6) = 5.76 chips\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = (0.98 * 4) - (0.02 * 4) = 3.84 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = - lose rate * lose payoff = - (1 * 2) = -2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy to follow in this round."}}
{"message": "", "79_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, I can pressure GoodGuy into folding or calling. If GoodGuy folds, I win the pot. If GoodGuy calls, the game goes to showdown and I have a high chance of winning with my King.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I forfeit the game and lose the chips in the pot. This is not a good strategy as I have a high rank card (King).\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, I do not add any more chips to the pot. This is a conservative strategy that can be used if I want to minimize my losses.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (40% probability), he will likely call (80% probability). This results in a draw as we both have a King. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (60% probability), he will likely call (60% probability) or fold (40% probability). If he calls, I lose as he has a pair of Queens. If he folds, I win. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I lose regardless of what card GoodGuy holds.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (40% probability), he will likely check (70% probability) or raise (30% probability). If he checks, it results in a draw as we both have a King. If he raises, I lose as I have to call or fold. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (60% probability), he will likely check (80% probability) or raise (20% probability). If he checks, I lose as he has a pair of Queens. If he raises, I lose as I have to call or fold. \n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips). \n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I lose the chips in the pot (4 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips). \n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Lose Rate * Lose Payoff = (40% * 4 chips) - (60% * 4 chips) = -0.8 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = -4 chips\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Lose Rate * Lose Payoff = (0% * 4 chips) - (100% * 4 chips) = -4 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (-0.8 chips). Although it is a negative gain, it is the least negative among all the plans. Therefore, I will choose to raise."}}
{"message": "", "79_5": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: 'Call' and say \"I'm feeling lucky, GoodGuy.\"\nPlan 2: 'Fold' and say \"I'll let you have this one, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he will likely 'call' (80% probability). This would result in a draw (50% probability) or a loss (50% probability) for me.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely 'call' (60% probability) or 'fold' (40% probability). This would result in a win (100% probability) for me.\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he will likely 'call' (80% probability). This would result in a loss (100% probability) for me.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely 'call' (60% probability) or 'fold' (40% probability). This would result in a loss (100% probability) for me.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 10 chips (half of the pot).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 10 chips (half of the pot).\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 0 chips (as I would have folded).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 8 chips (the chips I have already put into the pot).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\n- Expected Chips Gain = (0.6 * 0.8 * 0.5 * 10) - (0.6 * 0.8 * 0.5 * 10) = 0 chips\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- Expected Chips Gain = (0 * 10) - (1 * 8) = -8 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, I should select Plan 1: 'Call' and say \"I'm feeling lucky, GoodGuy.\" This plan has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement to be more aggressive when I have a King."}}
{"message": "", "80_1": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70%):\n  - If the public card is a King, he will raise (80%) or call (20%). I will lose unless the public card is a Jack.\n  - If the public card is a Queen or Jack, he will call (60%) or fold (40%). I will win if the public card is a Jack.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30%):\n  - If the public card is a Queen, he will raise (70%) or call (30%). I will lose unless the public card is a Jack.\n  - If the public card is a King or Jack, he will fold (60%) or call (40%). I will win if the public card is a Jack.\n- Overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates for Plan 1: Winning rate = 35%, Lose rate = 55%, Draw rate = 10%\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70%):\n  - If the public card is a King, he will raise (80%) or call (20%). I will lose unless the public card is a Jack.\n  - If the public card is a Queen or Jack, he will call (60%) or fold (40%). I will win if the public card is a Jack.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30%):\n  - If the public card is a Queen, he will raise (70%) or call (30%). I will lose unless the public card is a Jack.\n  - If the public card is a King or Jack, he will fold (60%) or call (40%). I will win if the public card is a Jack.\n- Overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates for Plan 2: Winning rate = 35%, Lose rate = 55%, Draw rate = 10%\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the round regardless of GoodGuy's card or the public card.\n- Overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates for Plan 3: Winning rate = 0%, Lose rate = 100%, Draw rate = 0%\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n- Plan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n- Plan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 35% * 3 - 55% * 3 = -0.6 chips\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 35% * 4 - 55% * 4 = -0.8 chips\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 2 - 100% * 2 = -2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy in this round. It has the highest expected chips gain (-0.6 chips) among the three plans. Although it's a negative gain, it's the least loss compared to the other plans. This plan also aligns with my strategy improvement when I hold a Jack: I should call if there's no public card yet."}}
{"message": "", "80_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- I could raise the bet to 8 chips, potentially intimidating GoodGuy into folding if he holds a Jack. I could say, \"Feeling lucky, GoodGuy?\"\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- I could fold, forfeiting the round but preserving my chips for future rounds. I could say, \"You've got this one, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- I could check, keeping the pot at 4 chips and potentially leading GoodGuy to believe I hold a Queen. I could say, \"Your move, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (70% probability), he will likely fold (70% probability), leading to a win for me. If he calls (30% probability), we would draw.\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (15% probability), he will likely call (60% probability), leading to a loss for me. If he folds (40% probability), I would win.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (15% probability), he will likely call (40% probability), leading to a loss for me. If he folds (60% probability), I would win.\n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 70%*70% + 15%*40% + 15%*60% = 49% + 6% + 9% = 64%. The losing rate is 15%*60% + 15%*40% = 9% + 6% = 15%. The draw rate is 70%*30% = 21%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I automatically lose the round regardless of GoodGuy's card. The losing rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (70% probability), he will likely check (50% probability), leading to a draw. If he raises (50% probability), I would lose.\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (15% probability), he will likely raise (80% probability), leading to a loss for me. If he checks (20% probability), I would lose.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (15% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability), leading to a loss for me. If he checks (30% probability), I would lose.\n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 0%. The losing rate is 70%*50% + 15%*80% + 15%*70% = 35% + 12% + 10.5% = 57.5%. The draw rate is 70%*50% = 35%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (12 chips) = 6 chips.\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (12 chips) = 6 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, there is no winning payoff.\n- The losing payoff would be the chips I have already put in the pot = 4 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips) = 4 chips.\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips) = 4 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 64% * 6 chips - 15% * 6 chips = 3.84 chips - 0.9 chips = 2.94 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = 0 - 100% * 4 chips = -4 chips\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = 0 - 57.5% * 4 chips = -2.3 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy with an expected gain of 2.94 chips. This strategy also aligns with my strategy improvement, which suggests raising when holding a Jack and the public card is a Queen. Therefore, I will execute Plan 1 and raise the bet."}}
{"message": "", "81_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 2 chips, bringing the total pot to 5 chips. This is a safe move as it allows me to see the public card without risking too many chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will put 4 more chips into the pot, bringing the total pot to 7 chips. This is a more aggressive move that could potentially pressure GoodGuy into folding if he has a weaker hand.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 1 chip I have already put into the pot. This is the most conservative move and would be a safe option if I believe GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (33.33% chance), he will likely call (80% chance) or raise (20% chance). If he calls, I will win (100% chance) as I also hold a King. If he raises, I will also win (100% chance) as I hold a King.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (33.33% chance), he will likely check (60% chance) or raise (40% chance). If he checks, I will win (100% chance) as I hold a higher card. If he raises, I will also win (100% chance) as I hold a higher card.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (33.33% chance), he will likely check (80% chance) or fold (20% chance). If he checks, I will win (100% chance) as I hold a higher card. If he folds, I will also win (100% chance) as he forfeits the round.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- The winning/lose/draw rates for this plan would be the same as Plan 1, as GoodGuy's actions are not influenced by my raise.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose (100% chance) as I forfeit the round.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (5/2 = 2.5 chips).\n- If I lose, the lose payoff would be the 1 chip I have already put into the pot.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (7/2 = 3.5 chips).\n- If I lose, the lose payoff would be the 5 chips I have put into the pot.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, the lose payoff would be the 1 chip I have already put into the pot.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Lose Rate * Lose Payoff = 1 * 2.5 - 0 * 1 = 2.5 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Lose Rate * Lose Payoff = 1 * 3.5 - 0 * 5 = 3.5 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Lose Rate * Lose Payoff = 0 * 0 - 1 * 1 = -1 chip\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. This strategy is also in line with my strategy improvement, which suggests raising the bet when I hold a King. Therefore, I will choose Plan 2 (Raise) for this round."}}
{"message": "", "81_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- I will say, \"I'm feeling confident, GoodGuy. Let's raise the stakes.\"\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- I will say, \"I think I'll sit this one out, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- I will say, \"Let's see what the next move brings, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (57% probability), he will likely call (80% probability). I will win if the public card is a King (33% probability), draw if it's a Queen (33% probability), and lose if it's a Jack (33% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (29% probability), he will likely call (50% probability) or fold (50% probability). I will win if the public card is a King or Jack (67% probability), and lose if it's a Queen (33% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (14% probability), he will likely fold (70% probability) or call (30% probability). I will win if the public card is a King or Queen (67% probability), and lose if it's a Jack (33% probability).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of GoodGuy's card or the public card.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (57% probability), he will likely check (70% probability) or raise (30% probability). I will win if the public card is a King (33% probability), draw if it's a Queen (33% probability), and lose if it's a Jack (33% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (29% probability), he will likely check (60% probability) or raise (40% probability). I will win if the public card is a King or Jack (67% probability), and lose if it's a Queen (33% probability).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (14% probability), he will likely check (80% probability) or fold (20% probability). I will win if the public card is a King or Queen (67% probability), and lose if it's a Jack (33% probability).\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (currently 4 chips, so 2 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (currently 4 chips, so 2 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose my current bet (2 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (currently 4 chips, so 2 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (currently 4 chips, so 2 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Lose Rate * Lose Payoff\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = -2 chips (as I will lose my current bet)\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Lose Rate * Lose Payoff\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nAfter calculating the expected chips gain for each plan, I will select the plan with the highest expected chips gain. If there is a tie, I will consider my strategy improvement and select the plan that aligns with my improved strategy."}}
{"message": "", "81_4": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 12 chips, bringing the total pot to 24 chips. This will put pressure on GoodGuy and may cause him to fold if he is holding a Jack.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 8 chips I have already put into the pot. However, this may be a safer option if GoodGuy is holding a Queen or a King.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy is holding a King (50% probability), he will likely call (80% probability). This would result in a draw, as both of us are holding a King. \n- If GoodGuy is holding a Queen (50% probability), he will likely raise (40% probability) or fold (50% probability). If he raises, I would lose as the Queen matches the public card. If he folds, I would win.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If GoodGuy is holding a King (50% probability), I would lose as I have folded.\n- If GoodGuy is holding a Queen (50% probability), I would also lose as I have folded.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 12 chips (half of the pot).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be 12 chips (half of the pot).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose the 8 chips I have already put into the pot.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = (winning rate * winning payoff) - (losing rate * losing payoff)\n- Expected chips gain = (0.5 * 12) - (0.5 * 12) = 0\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips loss = 8 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Call) would be the better option as it has a higher expected chips gain (0) compared to Plan 2 (Fold) which would result in a loss of 8 chips. However, this decision also depends on the risk tolerance of the player. If the player is more risk-averse, they might choose to fold to avoid the potential loss of 12 chips."}}
{"message": "", "82_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 2 chips, bringing the total pot to 5 chips. This is a conservative approach, keeping the pot small since I have a low-ranking card.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will add 4 more chips to the pot, bringing the total pot to 7 chips. This is a more aggressive approach, potentially intimidating GoodGuy into folding.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot. This is the most conservative approach, minimizing my losses since I have a low-ranking card.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he will likely call (80% probability) or raise (20% probability). If he calls, the game will proceed to the next round. If he raises, I will have to decide whether to call, raise, or fold.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he will likely check (80% probability) or raise (20% probability). If he checks, the game will proceed to the next round. If he raises, I will have to decide whether to call, raise, or fold.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will likely check (90% probability) or raise (10% probability). If he checks, the game will proceed to the next round. If he raises, I will have to decide whether to call, raise, or fold.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he will likely call (80% probability) or raise (20% probability). If he calls, the game will proceed to the next round. If he raises, I will have to decide whether to call, raise, or fold.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he will likely fold (40% probability) or call (60% probability). If he folds, I will win the pot. If he calls, the game will proceed to the next round.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will likely fold (70% probability) or call (30% probability). If he folds, I will win the pot. If he calls, the game will proceed to the next round.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, GoodGuy will win the pot regardless of his card.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 2.5 chips (half of the 5-chip pot).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be 1 chip (the amount I have already put in the pot).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 3.5 chips (half of the 7-chip pot).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be 3 chips (the amount I have already put in the pot).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, the losing payoff would be 1 chip (the amount I have already put in the pot).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = (winning rate * 2.5 chips) - (losing rate * 1 chip)\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = (winning rate * 3.5 chips) - (losing rate * 3 chips)\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -1 chip (since I will definitely lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot)\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the above analysis, I would rank the plans as follows:\n\n1. Plan 2: Raise\n2. Plan 1: Call\n3. Plan 3: Fold\n\nTherefore, I would choose to raise as my next move. This is the most aggressive approach, but it also has the potential for the highest payoff. However, this plan also carries the highest risk, so I will need to carefully consider GoodGuy's response before deciding my next move."}}
{"message": "", "82_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- I can raise the bet, putting 8 more chips into the pot. This would increase the pot to 20 chips. This action could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, especially if he holds a Queen or Jack. \n\nPlan 2: Check\n- I can check, which means not putting any additional chips into the pot. This action would keep the pot at 12 chips. This action could potentially lead GoodGuy to believe that I am not confident in my hand, which could influence his next action.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- I can fold, which means I give up this round and lose the chips I have already put into the pot. This action would result in a loss of 4 chips. This action is not recommended as I have a strong hand.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (40% probability), he will likely call (80% probability). This would result in a win for me as my Jack matches the public card. Therefore, the winning rate for this plan is 40% * 80% = 32%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely fold (40% probability). This would result in a win for me as GoodGuy forfeits the round. Therefore, the winning rate for this plan is 30% * 40% = 12%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely call (30% probability). This would result in a draw as both our cards match the public card. Therefore, the draw rate for this plan is 30% * 30% = 9%.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (40% probability), he will likely check (70% probability). This would result in a win for me as my Jack matches the public card. Therefore, the winning rate for this plan is 40% * 70% = 28%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely check (80% probability). This would result in a win for me as GoodGuy's Queen does not match the public card. Therefore, the winning rate for this plan is 30% * 80% = 24%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely check (90% probability). This would result in a draw as both our cards match the public card. Therefore, the draw rate for this plan is 30% * 90% = 27%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I automatically lose the round regardless of GoodGuy's card. Therefore, the lose rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which is 20/2 = 10 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot, which is 20/2 = 10 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which is 12/2 = 6 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot, which is 12/2 = 6 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I lose the chips I have already put into the pot, which is 4 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 32% * 10 - 0% * 10 = 3.2 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 28% * 6 - 0% * 6 = 1.68 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = 0% * 0 - 100% * 4 = -4 chips.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, Plan 1: Raise is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. This plan also aligns with the strategy improvement as it takes advantage of my strong hand and potentially intimidates GoodGuy into folding. Therefore, I will execute Plan 1: Raise."}}
{"message": "", "83_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, I can potentially increase the pot and win more chips if I have the winning hand. However, this also increases the risk of losing more chips if GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot, but I will not risk losing any more chips in this round. This is a safe option if I believe that GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, I will not put any more chips into the pot in this round. This is a good option if I am unsure about the strength of my hand and want to see the public card before making a decision.\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (40% probability), he will likely call (70% probability) or raise (30% probability). If he calls, I will win if the public card is a King or Queen, draw if it's a Jack, and lose if it's a King. If he raises, I will win if the public card is a King or Queen, draw if it's a Jack, and lose if it's a King.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (35% probability), he will likely call (60% probability) or fold (40% probability). If he calls, I will win if the public card is a King or Queen, draw if it's a Jack, and lose if it's a Queen. If he folds, I will win regardless of the public card.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (25% probability), he will likely fold (70% probability) or call (30% probability). If he folds, I will win regardless of the public card. If he calls, I will win if the public card is a King or Queen, draw if it's a Jack, and lose if it's a Jack.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of GoodGuy's card or the public card.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (40% probability), he will likely check (60% probability) or raise (40% probability). If he checks, I will win if the public card is a King or Queen, draw if it's a Jack, and lose if it's a King. If he raises, I will win if the public card is a King or Queen, draw if it's a Jack, and lose if it's a King.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (35% probability), he will likely check (80% probability) or raise (20% probability). If he checks, I will win if the public card is a King or Queen, draw if it's a Jack, and lose if it's a Queen. If he raises, I will win if the public card is a King or Queen, draw if it's a Jack, and lose if it's a Queen.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (25% probability), he will likely check (90% probability) or raise (10% probability). If he checks, I will win if the public card is a King or Queen, draw if it's a Jack, and lose if it's a Jack. If he raises, I will win if the public card is a King or Queen, draw if it's a Jack, and lose if it's a Jack.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 3 chips (2 chips from me, 2 chips from GoodGuy, and 2 chips from my raise).\n- If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 3 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 2 chips (2 chips from me and 2 chips from GoodGuy).\n- If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 2 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = (0.4 * 3) - (0.6 * 3) = -0.6 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -2 chips (since I will lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot)\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - lose rate * lose payoff = (0.4 * 2) - (0.6 * 2) = -0.4 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 3 (Check) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (-0.4 chips). Although all plans result in a loss of chips, Plan 3 minimizes the loss. Therefore, I will choose to check in this round."}}
{"message": "", "83_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\nI will match GoodGuy's bet of 6 chips, bringing the total pot to 14 chips. I will say, \"I'll match your bet.\"\n\nPlan 2: 'Raise'\nI will raise the bet by 4 chips, bringing my total bet to 6 chips and the total pot to 16 chips. I will say, \"I'm feeling lucky, I'll raise.\"\n\nPlan 3: 'Fold'\nI will fold my hand, forfeiting the 2 chips I have already put in the pot. I will say, \"I think I'll sit this one out.\"\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\nIf GoodGuy holds a King (20% probability), he will check (60% probability), resulting in a draw. If GoodGuy holds a Queen (60% probability), he will check (80% probability), resulting in a win for me. If GoodGuy holds a Jack (20% probability), he will check (90% probability), resulting in a win for me. Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 80%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 20%.\n\nPlan 2: 'Raise'\nIf GoodGuy holds a King (20% probability), he will call (70% probability), resulting in a draw. If GoodGuy holds a Queen (60% probability), he will fold (40% probability), resulting in a win for me. If GoodGuy holds a Jack (20% probability), he will fold (70% probability), resulting in a win for me. Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 70%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 30%.\n\nPlan 3: 'Fold'\nIf I fold, I will automatically lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot. The winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\nAfter the action, Chips in the pot: 14. If win, the winning payoff would be 7 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 7 chips.\n\nPlan 2: 'Raise'\nAfter the action, Chips in the pot: 16. If win, the winning payoff would be 8 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 8 chips.\n\nPlan 3: 'Fold'\nAfter the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 0 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\nExpected Chips Gain = 0.8 * 7 - 0 * 7 = 5.6 chips\n\nPlan 2: 'Raise'\nExpected Chips Gain = 0.7 * 8 - 0 * 8 = 5.6 chips\n\nPlan 3: 'Fold'\nExpected Chips Gain = 0 * 0 - 1 * 2 = -2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1: 'Call' and Plan 2: 'Raise' are the best strategies, both with an expected chips gain of 5.6 chips. However, considering the strategy improvement, Plan 1: 'Call' is the safer option as it has a higher winning rate and does not risk losing additional chips. Therefore, I will choose Plan 1: 'Call'."}}
{"message": "", "84_0": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\nIf I call, I will put 1 more chip in the pot, making the total pot 4 chips. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (40% chance), he is likely to raise (40% chance) or check (60% chance). If he raises, I will call, making the total pot 8 chips. If he checks, the total pot remains 4 chips. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% chance), he is likely to raise (20% chance) or check (80% chance). If he raises, I will call, making the total pot 8 chips. If he checks, the total pot remains 4 chips. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% chance), he is likely to raise (10% chance) or check (90% chance). If he raises, I will call, making the total pot 8 chips. If he checks, the total pot remains 4 chips. \n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf I raise, I will put 5 chips in the pot, making the total pot 8 chips. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (40% chance), he is likely to call (70% chance) or raise (30% chance). If he calls or raises, the total pot will be 12 or 16 chips respectively. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (20% chance), he is likely to call (60% chance) or fold (40% chance). If he calls, the total pot will be 12 chips. If he folds, the total pot remains 8 chips. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (40% chance), he is likely to call (30% chance) or fold (70% chance). If he calls, the total pot will be 12 chips. If he folds, the total pot remains 8 chips. \n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot. \n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: If win, the winning payoff would be 2 or 4 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2 or 4 chips. \n- Plan 2: If win, the winning payoff would be 4 or 6 or 8 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4 or 6 or 8 chips. \n- Plan 3: If lose, the lose payoff would be 1 chip. \n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0.4*(2*0.4+4*0.6) - 0.6*(2*0.4+4*0.6) = -0.8 chips\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0.4*(4*0.7+6*0.3) - 0.6*(4*0.7+6*0.3) = -0.8 chips\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = -1 chip\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 and Plan 2 are both better than Plan 3. However, considering the strategy improvement, Plan 2 (Raise) is more aggressive and can potentially force GoodGuy to fold, which aligns with my strategy improvement. Therefore, I will choose Plan 2: Raise."}}
{"message": "", "84_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, I can potentially force GoodGuy to fold if he has a Jack. This would result in a win for me. If GoodGuy has a King, he is likely to call or raise, which would result in a draw or loss for me. If GoodGuy has a Queen, he is likely to call, which would result in a loss for me.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose the game immediately. This is not a desirable outcome, but it would prevent further loss of chips if GoodGuy has a Queen.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, I can potentially bluff GoodGuy into thinking I have a weak hand. If GoodGuy has a King, he is likely to check or raise, which would result in a draw or loss for me. If GoodGuy has a Queen, he is likely to raise, which would result in a loss for me. If GoodGuy has a Jack, he is likely to check, which would result in a win for me.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a King (70% probability), he is likely to call (70%) or raise (30%). This would result in a draw or loss for me.\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (30% probability), he is likely to call (60%) or fold (40%). This would result in a loss or win for me.\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 28% (70% * 40%), the losing rate is 42% (70% * 60% + 30% * 60%), and the draw rate is 30% (70% * 30%).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose the game immediately. The losing rate for Plan 2 is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy has a King (70% probability), he is likely to check (60%) or raise (40%). This would result in a draw or loss for me.\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (30% probability), he is likely to raise (70%) or check (30%). This would result in a loss or win for me.\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 3 is 21% (70% * 30%), the losing rate is 49% (70% * 40% + 30% * 70%), and the draw rate is 30% (70% * 30%).\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 28% * 8 - 42% * 8 = -1.12 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -100% * 4 = -4 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 21% * 4 - 49% * 4 = -1.12 chips.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) and Plan 3 (Check) are the best strategies, as they both have the highest expected chips gain (-1.12 chips). However, considering the strategy improvement, Plan 1 (Raise) is the better choice as it puts more pressure on GoodGuy and potentially forces him to fold. Therefore, I will choose Plan 1 (Raise)."}}
{"message": "", "85_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- This action would match the amount of chips GoodGuy has put in the pot. This is a safe move that doesn't reveal much about my hand.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- This action would increase the amount of chips in the pot by 4. This could potentially intimidate GoodGuy and make him think I have a strong hand.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- This action would mean I forfeit the round. This is a safe move if I believe GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%). If he calls, I have a 50% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack. If he raises, I have a 50% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he will likely raise (100%). I have a 50% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will likely raise (100%). I have a 50% chance of drawing if the public card is a Jack.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%). If he calls, I have a 50% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack. If he raises, I have a 50% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen, he will likely raise (100%). I have a 50% chance of winning if the public card is a Jack.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will likely raise (100%). I have a 50% chance of drawing if the public card is a Jack.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I automatically lose the round.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (3 chips).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (3 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (5 chips).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (5 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I lose 1 chip.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = 0.5 * 3 - 0.5 * 3 = 0\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = 0.5 * 5 - 0.5 * 5 = 0\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -1\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1: Call and Plan 2: Raise are the best strategies as they have the highest expected chips gain. However, considering the strategy improvement, Plan 2: Raise is the best strategy as it could potentially intimidate GoodGuy and make him think I have a strong hand."}}
{"message": "", "85_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- I will raise the bet, increasing the pot size. This will put pressure on GoodGuy to either match my raise or fold. \n\nPlan 2: Check\n- I will check, not adding any more chips to the pot. This will give GoodGuy the opportunity to raise, call, or fold.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- I will fold, forfeiting the game. This is the least likely option given my strong hand, but it's still a possibility.\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70% chance), he will likely call (60% chance). This gives me a 42% chance of winning (70% * 60%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% chance), he will likely raise (100% chance). This gives me a 30% chance of winning (30% * 100%).\n- Overall, my winning rate for this plan is 72% (42% + 30%).\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70% chance), he will likely call (60% chance). This gives me a 42% chance of winning (70% * 60%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% chance), he will likely raise (100% chance). This gives me a 30% chance of winning (30% * 100%).\n- Overall, my winning rate for this plan is 72% (42% + 30%).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I automatically lose the game. Therefore, my winning rate for this plan is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (currently 8 chips, will be 16 after my raise). \n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (currently 8 chips, will be 16 after my raise).\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (currently 8 chips).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (currently 8 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I lose the game and the losing payoff would be half of the pot (currently 8 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 72% * 8 - 28% * 8 = 3.52 chips\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 72% * 4 - 28% * 4 = 1.76 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0% * 4 - 100% * 4 = -4 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement of raising when holding a strong hand. Therefore, I will choose to raise."}}
{"message": "", "86_1": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (20% probability), he will likely call (70%) or check (30%). If the public card is a King, I will win. If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will lose. Overall, the winning rate is 70%, the losing rate is 30%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely call (60%) or check (40%). If the public card is a Queen, I will lose. If the public card is a King or Jack, I will win. Overall, the winning rate is 60%, the losing rate is 40%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will likely call (50%) or check (50%). If the public card is a Jack, I will lose. If the public card is a King or Queen, I will win. Overall, the winning rate is 50%, the losing rate is 50%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (20% probability), he will likely call (70%) or fold (30%). If the public card is a King, I will win. If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will lose. Overall, the winning rate is 70%, the losing rate is 30%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely call (50%) or fold (50%). If the public card is a Queen, I will lose. If the public card is a King or Jack, I will win. Overall, the winning rate is 50%, the losing rate is 50%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will likely fold (70%) or call (30%). If the public card is a Jack, I will lose. If the public card is a King or Queen, I will win. Overall, the winning rate is 70%, the losing rate is 30%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot. The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n- Plan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 10. If win, the winning payoff would be 5. If lose, the lose payoff would be 5.\n- Plan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 0.6*3 - 0.4*3 = 0.6\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 0.63*5 - 0.37*5 = 1.3\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = -1\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy to follow."}}
{"message": "", "86_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\nI will raise the bet and say, \"I'm feeling lucky, GoodGuy. Let's raise the stakes.\"\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\nI will fold and say, \"I think I'll sit this one out, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\nI will check and say, \"Your move, GoodGuy.\"\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (33.3% chance), he will likely call (60% chance). I will lose this round as his King is higher than my Queen. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (33.3% chance), he will likely raise (70% chance). I will win this round as my King is higher than his Queen. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (33.3% chance), he will likely fold (70% chance). I will win this round as he folds. \n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- If I fold, I will lose this round regardless of GoodGuy's card.\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (33.3% chance), he will likely raise (80% chance). I will lose this round as his King is higher than my Queen. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (33.3% chance), he will likely check (30% chance). I will win this round as my King is higher than his Queen. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (33.3% chance), he will likely check (50% chance). I will win this round as my King is higher than his Jack. \n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 9 chips. \n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 9 chips.\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- If I fold, I will lose the 6 chips I have already put in the pot.\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 6 chips. \n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 6 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Raise'\n- Expected chips gain = (33.3% * 70% * 9) - (33.3% * 60% * 9) = 0.7 chips\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\n- Expected chips gain = -6 chips\n\nPlan 3: 'Check'\n- Expected chips gain = (33.3% * 30% * 6) - (33.3% * 80% * 6) = -1 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1: 'Raise' is the best strategy to implement in this round."}}
{"message": "", "87_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If the public card is a Jack, I will have a pair and a high chance of winning. \n- If the public card is a Queen or King, I will have a high card and a lower chance of winning. \n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- This is a bluffing strategy. If GoodGuy believes I have a strong hand, he may fold, allowing me to win the pot. \n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- This is a conservative strategy. If the public card is not a Jack, I will likely lose the game. \n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely raise (30%) or call (70%). If the public card is a Jack, I will win. If the public card is a Queen or King, I will lose. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely fold (40%) or call (60%). If the public card is a Jack, I will win. If the public card is a Queen, it will be a draw. If the public card is a King, I will lose. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (20% probability), he will likely fold (60%) or call (40%). If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw. If the public card is a Queen or King, I will win. \n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%). If the public card is a Jack, I will win. If the public card is a Queen or King, I will lose. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely fold (70%). If he calls (30%), and the public card is a Jack, I will win. If the public card is a Queen, it will be a draw. If the public card is a King, I will lose. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (20% probability), he will likely fold (80%). If he calls (20%), and the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw. If the public card is a Queen or King, I will win. \n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the game regardless of GoodGuy's card or the public card. \n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (3 chips). \n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (3 chips). \n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (5 chips). \n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (5 chips). \n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose 1 chip. \n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = 0.5 * 3 - 0.5 * 3 = 0\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = 0.6 * 5 - 0.4 * 5 = 1\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -1\n\nPlan Selection: \n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement."}}
{"message": "", "87_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- I could raise the bet to 8 chips, which would put pressure on GoodGuy and potentially force him to fold if he has a Queen or Jack. However, this could also lead to a loss if GoodGuy has a King or decides to call with a Queen or Jack.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- I could fold, which would result in a loss of the 4 chips I have already put into the pot. However, this would prevent further losses if GoodGuy has a King or decides to call with a Queen or Jack.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- I could check, which would not increase the pot but would allow me to see the next public card without risking more chips. This could potentially lead to a win if the next public card is a Jack.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a King (80% probability), he will likely raise (90% probability), leading to a loss for me. If GoodGuy has a Queen (20% probability), he will likely fold (70% probability), leading to a win for me. Therefore, the overall winning rate for this plan is 14% (0.2 * 0.7), the losing rate is 72% (0.8 * 0.9), and the draw rate is 14% (0.2 * 0.3).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of GoodGuy's actions. Therefore, the overall winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy has a King (80% probability), he will likely raise (90% probability), leading to a loss for me. If GoodGuy has a Queen (20% probability), he will likely check (30% probability), leading to a draw for me. Therefore, the overall winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 72% (0.8 * 0.9), and the draw rate is 6% (0.2 * 0.3).\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 12 chips (half of the 24 chips in the pot). If I lose, the losing payoff would be 12 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 4 chips I have already put into the pot.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 4 chips (half of the 8 chips in the pot). If I lose, the losing payoff would be 4 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- The expected chips gain for this plan is 0.14 * 12 - 0.72 * 12 = -6.96 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- The expected chips gain for this plan is -4 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- The expected chips gain for this plan is 0 - 0.72 * 4 = -2.88 chips.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 3 (Check) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (-2.88 chips). Although this plan does not lead to a win, it minimizes the potential loss. This plan also aligns with the strategy improvement, which suggests folding when holding a Jack and the public card is a King or Queen."}}
{"message": "", "88_1": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he will likely call (80% probability). If the public card is a King, I will lose. If the public card is a Queen, I will win. If the public card is a Jack, I will lose. Overall, the winning rate is 20%, the losing rate is 80%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely call (70% probability). If the public card is a King, I will lose. If the public card is a Queen, it's a draw. If the public card is a Jack, I will win. Overall, the winning rate is 30%, the losing rate is 30%, and the draw rate is 40%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely fold (60% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win. If the public card is a Queen, I will win. If the public card is a Jack, I will lose. Overall, the winning rate is 60%, the losing rate is 40%, and the draw rate is 0%.\nPlan 1 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 35%, Lose rate is 50%, Draw rate is 15%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he will likely call (80% probability). If the public card is a King, I will lose. If the public card is a Queen, I will win. If the public card is a Jack, I will lose. Overall, the winning rate is 20%, the losing rate is 80%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely fold (70% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win. If the public card is a Queen, it's a draw. If the public card is a Jack, I will win. Overall, the winning rate is 70%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 30%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely fold (60% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win. If the public card is a Queen, I will win. If the public card is a Jack, I will lose. Overall, the winning rate is 60%, the losing rate is 40%, and the draw rate is 0%.\nPlan 2 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 45%, Lose rate is 40%, Draw rate is 15%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot. The overall winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n- Plan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 10. If win, the winning payoff would be 5. If lose, the lose payoff would be 5.\n- Plan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 35% * 4 - 50% * 4 = -0.6 chips\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 45% * 5 - 40% * 5 = 0.25 chips\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = -100% * 3 = -3 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy to follow in the current game. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with the strategy improvement of being aggressive when holding a Queen."}}
{"message": "", "88_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, I can potentially force GoodGuy to fold if he holds a Jack, as he tends to fold 80% of the time when the public card is a King or Queen. This would result in me winning the pot. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose the chips I've already put in the pot, but I would avoid potentially losing more chips if GoodGuy holds a King or a Jack that matches the public card.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, I would not add any more chips to the pot, passing the action to GoodGuy. This could potentially confuse GoodGuy and make him unsure of my card.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he will likely call (90% probability). I would lose this round as a King is higher than my Queen. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will likely fold (80% probability). I would win this round as GoodGuy forfeits the game. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose the round regardless of GoodGuy's card.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King, he will likely raise (90% probability). I would lose this round as a King is higher than my Queen. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack, he will likely check (80% probability). The round would be a draw as we both hold a Queen.\n\nPlan Selection: \n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) would be the best strategy. Although there is a risk of losing if GoodGuy holds a King, the potential gain from him folding when he holds a Jack outweighs this risk. Furthermore, this plan aligns with my strategy improvement of being aggressive when holding a King or Queen. \n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 14. If win, the winning payoff would be 7. \n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 14. If lose, the lose payoff would be 7.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. \n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = 0.8 * 7 - 0.2 * 7 = 4.2\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = -3\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected Chips Gain = 0.5 * 3 - 0.5 * 3 = 0\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) would be the best strategy."}}
{"message": "", "88_5": {"plan": "Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\nIf I 'call', I will match GoodGuy's bet and we will proceed to the showdown. I can say, \"I'm not backing down, GoodGuy. Let's see who has the better hand.\"\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\nIf I 'fold', I will concede the round to GoodGuy and lose the chips I have already put in the pot. I can say, \"You've got me this time, GoodGuy. I fold.\"\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\nIf GoodGuy holds a King (probability 55%), he will win. If GoodGuy holds a Jack (probability 45%), it will be a draw. Therefore, the winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 55%, and the draw rate is 45%.\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\nIf I fold, GoodGuy will win regardless of his card. Therefore, the winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\nAfter the action, chips in the pot: 28. If win, the winning payoff would be 14. If lose, the lose payoff would be 14.\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\nAfter the action, chips in the pot: 24. If win, the winning payoff would be 0 (since I fold). If lose, the lose payoff would be 12.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: 'Call'\nExpected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * lose payoff = 0% * 14 - 55% * 14 = -7.7 chips\n\nPlan 2: 'Fold'\nExpected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * lose payoff = 0% * 0 - 100% * 12 = -12 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 ('Call') is the better strategy as it results in a smaller loss of chips. Despite the high probability of losing, it is still the better option compared to folding. Therefore, I will choose to 'call' and say, \"I'm not backing down, GoodGuy. Let's see who has the better hand.\""}}
{"message": "", "89_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 2 chips, bringing the total pot to 5 chips. This is a conservative move that allows me to see the public card without risking too many chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will add 4 more chips to the pot, bringing the total pot to 7 chips. This is an aggressive move that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, especially if he has a weak hand.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot. This is a very conservative move that minimizes my losses, but it also means I have no chance of winning the pot.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy has a King (50% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will still win (100% probability). Therefore, the overall winning rate for this plan is 100%.\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (50% probability), he will likely call (50% probability) or check (50% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is a Queen, it will be a draw (50% probability). If the public card is a Jack, I will win (100% probability). Therefore, the overall winning rate for this plan is 75%, and the draw rate is 25%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a King (50% probability), he will likely call (60% probability) or raise (40% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will still win (100% probability). Therefore, the overall winning rate for this plan is 100%.\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (50% probability), he will likely call (50% probability) or fold (50% probability). If the public card is a King, I will win (100% probability). If the public card is a Queen, it will be a draw (50% probability). If the public card is a Jack, I will win (100% probability). Therefore, the overall winning rate for this plan is 75%, and the draw rate is 25%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot. Therefore, the overall losing rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which is 2.5 chips.\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be the 1 chip I have already put in the pot.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which is 3.5 chips.\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be the 5 chips I have put in the pot.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, the losing payoff would be the 1 chip I have already put in the pot.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Losing Rate * Losing Payoff = 100% * 2.5 - 0% * 1 = 2.5 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Losing Rate * Losing Payoff = 100% * 3.5 - 0% * 5 = 3.5 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Losing Rate * Losing Payoff = 0% * 0 - 100% * 1 = -1 chip\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy, followed by Plan 1 (Call), and Plan 3 (Fold) is the worst strategy. Therefore, I should choose to raise in this round."}}
{"message": "", "89_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, I can potentially win more chips if GoodGuy decides to call or raise. However, this also increases the risk of losing more chips if I lose the round. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot, but I will not risk losing any more chips. This is a conservative strategy that minimizes risk.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, I will not put any more chips in the pot. This is a neutral strategy that neither increases nor decreases the risk.\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a King (60% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability). I will win if the public card changes to a King (33% probability), lose if it stays a Queen (33% probability), and draw if it changes to a Jack (33% probability).\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (40% probability), he will likely call (50% probability) or fold (50% probability). I will lose if the public card stays a Queen (50% probability), and win if it changes to a King or Jack (50% probability).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the round regardless of GoodGuy's card or the public card.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy has a King (60% probability), he will likely raise (70% probability). I will win if the public card changes to a King (33% probability), lose if it stays a Queen (33% probability), and draw if it changes to a Jack (33% probability).\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (40% probability), he will likely call (50% probability) or fold (50% probability). I will lose if the public card stays a Queen (50% probability), and win if it changes to a King or Jack (50% probability).\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 6 chips.\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 6 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot, which is 4 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 4 chips.\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot, which would be 4 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = (33% * 6) - (33% * 6) = 0\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -4 (as I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot)\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = (50% * 4) - (50% * 4) = 0\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) and Plan 3 (Check) are both better than Plan 2 (Fold). However, considering the strategy improvement, Plan 1 (Raise) is more aggressive and has a higher potential payoff, so I will choose Plan 1 (Raise)."}}
{"message": "", "90_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If the public card is a Queen or Jack, I will have a good chance of winning. If the public card is a King, I will have a lower chance of winning, but I can still win if GoodGuy has a Jack.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- This will increase the pot and potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding. However, this is a risky move as it will also increase my potential losses.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- This is the safest option, but it means I will lose any chips I have already put in the pot.\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy has a King (70% probability), he will likely raise (60% probability). I will likely lose (70% * 60% = 42%).\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (30% probability), he will likely call (50% probability). I will likely draw (30% * 50% = 15%).\n- Overall, my winning rate is 43%, losing rate is 42%, and drawing rate is 15%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a King (70% probability), he will likely call (40% probability). I will likely lose (70% * 40% = 28%).\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (30% probability), he will likely fold (70% probability). I will likely win (30% * 70% = 21%).\n- Overall, my winning rate is 21%, losing rate is 28%, and drawing rate is 51%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose 100% of the time.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (6 chips).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (6 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 43% * 6 - 42% * 6 = 0.06 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = 21% * 8 - 28% * 8 = -0.56 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -2 chips.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement. Therefore, I will choose to call."}}
{"message": "", "90_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (30% probability), he will likely call (40% probability). I will lose as a King beats a pair of Queens. The overall losing rate for this card is 12% (30% * 40%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (70% probability), he will likely fold (80% probability). I will win as a pair of Queens beats a Jack. The overall winning rate for this card is 56% (70% * 80%).\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (30% probability), he will likely raise (60% probability). I will lose as a King beats a pair of Queens. The overall losing rate for this card is 18% (30% * 60%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (70% probability), he will likely check (100% probability). I will win as a pair of Queens beats a Jack. The overall winning rate for this card is 70% (70% * 100%).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the pot regardless of GoodGuy's cards. The overall losing rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, chips in the pot would be 16. If win, the winning payoff would be 8. If lose, the lose payoff would be 8.\n- Plan 2: After the action, chips in the pot would be 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n- Plan 3: After the action, chips in the pot would be 8. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 56% * 8 - 12% * 8 = 3.52 chips.\n- Plan 2: Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 70% * 4 - 18% * 4 = 2.08 chips.\n- Plan 3: Expected chips gain = -100% * 4 = -4 chips.\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy to implement in the current game. This plan not only aligns with the strategy improvement but also provides the highest estimated expected chips gain."}}
{"message": "", "91_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\nPlan 2: Raise\nPlan 3: Fold\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nIf GoodGuy holds a King (33% probability), he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%). If he calls, I will likely win (50%) or lose (50%). If he raises, I will likely lose (100%). Overall, my winning rate is 16.5%, my losing rate is 16.5%, and my draw rate is 0%.\n\nIf GoodGuy holds a Queen (33% probability), he will likely call (40%) or raise (60%). If he calls, I will likely draw (100%). If he raises, I will likely draw (100%). Overall, my winning rate is 0%, my losing rate is 0%, and my draw rate is 33%.\n\nIf GoodGuy holds a Jack (33% probability), he will likely call (30%) or fold (70%). If he calls, I will likely win (100%). If he folds, I will likely win (100%). Overall, my winning rate is 33%, my losing rate is 0%, and my draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 1 overall Winning/Lose/Draw rates: Winning rate is 49.5%, Losing rate is 16.5%, Draw rate is 33%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nThe rates would be the same as Plan 1 because GoodGuy's actions are not affected by my raise.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will lose 100% of the time.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\nPlan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\nPlan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.5.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 49.5% * 2 - 16.5% * 2 = 0.66 chips\nPlan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 49.5% * 3 - 16.5% * 3 = 0.99 chips\nPlan 3: Expected Chips Gain = -100% * 1.5 = -1.5 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy to follow."}}
{"message": "", "91_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, I can potentially force GoodGuy to fold if he holds a Jack or Queen. This would allow me to win the pot without revealing my card. I can say, \"I'm feeling lucky, GoodGuy. Let's raise the stakes.\"\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot. However, this could be a safer option if I believe GoodGuy holds a King or a Jack. I can keep silent to not reveal any information.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, I can see GoodGuy's next action without adding more chips to the pot. This could be a good option if I am unsure about GoodGuy's card. I can say, \"Your move, GoodGuy.\"\n\nEstimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%). I will likely lose (70%) or draw (30%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely call (80%) or fold (20%). I will likely win (80%) or draw (20%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely fold (70%) or call (30%). I will likely win (70%) or lose (30%).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), I will lose (100%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), I will lose (100%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), I will lose (100%).\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he will likely raise (70%) or check (30%). I will likely lose (70%) or draw (30%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely raise (60%) or check (40%). I will likely win (60%) or draw (40%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely check (70%) or raise (30%). I will likely win (70%) or lose (30%).\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 0 chips.\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 4 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = 0.8 * 8 - 0.7 * 8 = 0.8 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = 0 * 0 - 1 * 4 = -4 chips\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected Chips Gain = 0.7 * 4 - 0.7 * 4 = 0 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy to implement in the current game. This plan has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement to be more aggressive when holding a Queen."}}
{"message": "", "92_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\nIn this plan, I will match GoodGuy's bet by putting 1 more chip in the pot. This is a conservative move that will keep me in the game without risking too many chips. \n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIn this plan, I will increase the bet by putting 5 chips in the pot. This is an aggressive move that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy and make him fold, especially if he has a weak hand. \n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIn this plan, I will forfeit the game. This is a very conservative move that will save me from losing any more chips, but it will also give up any chance of winning the pot. \n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nIf GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely call (80% probability) or raise (20% probability). If he holds a Queen (25% probability), he will likely call (60% probability) or fold (40% probability). If he holds a Jack (25% probability), he will likely fold (70% probability) or call (30% probability). Therefore, the overall winning rate for this plan is 50% (probability of GoodGuy holding a King) * 80% (probability of him calling) + 25% (probability of him holding a Queen) * 60% (probability of him calling) + 25% (probability of him holding a Jack) * 30% (probability of him calling) = 57.5%. The overall losing rate is 42.5%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf GoodGuy holds a King (50% probability), he will likely call (80% probability) or raise (20% probability). If he holds a Queen (25% probability), he will likely fold (60% probability) or call (40% probability). If he holds a Jack (25% probability), he will likely fold (70% probability) or call (30% probability). Therefore, the overall winning rate for this plan is 50% (probability of GoodGuy holding a King) * 80% (probability of him calling) + 25% (probability of him holding a Queen) * 40% (probability of him calling) + 25% (probability of him holding a Jack) * 30% (probability of him calling) = 52.5%. The overall losing rate is 47.5%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will automatically lose the game. Therefore, the overall winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nAfter the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nAfter the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will not win any chips, and I will lose the 1 chip I have already put in the pot.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nExpected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Losing Rate * Losing Payoff = 57.5% * 2 - 42.5% * 2 = 0.3 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nExpected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Losing Rate * Losing Payoff = 52.5% * 4 - 47.5% * 4 = 0.2 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nExpected Chips Gain = Winning Rate * Winning Payoff - Losing Rate * Losing Payoff = 0% * 0 - 100% * 1 = -1 chip\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy because it has the highest expected chips gain (0.3 chips). Therefore, I will choose to call in this round."}}
{"message": "", "92_2": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely call (60% probability) or fold (40% probability). If he calls, I will lose as his pair of Queens beats my single King. If he folds, I will win. Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 20% (50% * 40%), the losing rate is 30% (50% * 60%), and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will likely fold (70% probability) or call (30% probability). If he folds, I will win. If he calls, I will win as my King beats his single Jack. Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 50% (50% * 100%), the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of what card GoodGuy holds. The winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (50% probability), he will likely call (60% probability) or fold (40% probability). If he calls, I will lose as his pair of Queens beats my single King. If he folds, I will win. Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 20% (50% * 40%), the losing rate is 30% (50% * 60%), and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will likely fold (70% probability) or call (30% probability). If he folds, I will win. If he calls, I will win as my King beats his single Jack. Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 50% (50% * 100%), the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: After the action, chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n- Plan 2: After the action, chips in the pot: 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n- Plan 3: After the action, chips in the pot: 2. If win, the winning payoff would be 1. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 20% * 2 - 30% * 2 = -0.2 chips\n- Plan 2: Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 0% * 0 - 100% * 1 = -1 chip\n- Plan 3: Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 70% * 1 - 30% * 1 = 0.4 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 3 (Check) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. This strategy is also consistent with my strategy improvement, which is to be more conservative when I have a weak hand."}}
{"message": "", "92_4": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\nIf I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 6 chips, bringing the total pot to 14 chips. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (70% probability), he will likely check (60% probability). I will win if the public card is a King (25% probability), lose if the public card is a Queen (25% probability), and draw if the public card is a Jack (50% probability). Overall, my winning rate is 10.5%, losing rate is 10.5%, and drawing rate is 21%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely fold (70% probability). I will win if the public card is a King or Queen (50% probability), and draw if the public card is a Jack (50% probability). Overall, my winning rate is 10.5%, losing rate is 0%, and drawing rate is 10.5%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf I raise, I will increase the bet by 8 chips, bringing the total pot to 16 chips. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (70% probability), he will likely call (60% probability). I will win if the public card is a King (25% probability), lose if the public card is a Queen (25% probability), and draw if the public card is a Jack (50% probability). Overall, my winning rate is 10.5%, losing rate is 10.5%, and drawing rate is 21%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely fold (70% probability). I will win if the public card is a King or Queen (50% probability), and draw if the public card is a Jack (50% probability). Overall, my winning rate is 10.5%, losing rate is 0%, and drawing rate is 10.5%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will forfeit the game and lose the 2 chips I have put into the pot.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: If win, the winning payoff would be 7 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 7 chips.\n- Plan 2: If win, the winning payoff would be 8 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 8 chips.\n- Plan 3: If lose, the lose payoff would be 2 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected chips gain = 10.5% * 7 - 10.5% * 7 = 0 chips\n- Plan 2: Expected chips gain = 10.5% * 8 - 10.5% * 8 = 0 chips\n- Plan 3: Expected chips gain = -2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nConsidering both the strategy improvement and the highest estimated expected chips gain, I should choose Plan 1 or Plan 2. Since Plan 2 is more aggressive and aligns with my strategy improvement to be more aggressive when I have a strong hand, I will choose Plan 2: Raise."}}
{"message": "", "93_1": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\nIf I raise, I will put 4 more chips into the pot, making the total pot 8 chips. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (30% probability), he will likely raise (70%) or call (30%). If he raises, the pot will be 16 chips. If he calls, the pot will be 12 chips. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (60% probability), he will likely call (60%) or fold (40%). If he calls, the pot will be 12 chips. If he folds, I will win the pot of 8 chips. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will likely call (50%) or fold (50%). If he calls, the pot will be 12 chips. If he folds, I will win the pot of 8 chips. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\nIf I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put into the pot. \n\nPlan 3: Check\nIf I check, I will not put any more chips into the pot. The total pot will remain at 4 chips. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (30% probability), he will likely raise (70%) or call (30%). If he raises, the pot will be 8 chips. If he calls, the pot will remain at 4 chips. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (60% probability), he will likely call (60%) or fold (40%). If he calls, the pot will remain at 4 chips. If he folds, I will win the pot of 4 chips. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (50% probability), he will likely call (50%) or fold (50%). If he calls, the pot will remain at 4 chips. If he folds, I will win the pot of 4 chips. \n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\nPlan 1: If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which could be 4, 6, or 8 chips. If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot, which could be 4, 6, or 8 chips. \nPlan 2: If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put into the pot. \nPlan 3: If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which could be 2 or 4 chips. If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot, which could be 2 or 4 chips. \n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\nPlan 1: Expected Chips Gain = (0.3 * 0.7 * 8 + 0.3 * 0.3 * 6 + 0.6 * 0.6 * 6 + 0.6 * 0.4 * 4 + 0.5 * 0.5 * 6 + 0.5 * 0.5 * 4) / 2 = 3.1 chips\nPlan 2: Expected Chips Gain = -2 chips\nPlan 3: Expected Chips Gain = (0.3 * 0.7 * 4 + 0.3 * 0.3 * 2 + 0.6 * 0.6 * 2 + 0.6 * 0.4 * 2 + 0.5 * 0.5 * 2 + 0.5 * 0.5 * 2) / 2 = 1.3 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy with an expected gain of 3.1 chips. Plan 3 (Check) is the second best strategy with an expected gain of 1.3 chips. Plan 2 (Fold) is the worst strategy with an expected loss of 2 chips. Therefore, I should choose to raise."}}
{"message": "", "93_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Raise\nIf I raise, I will put 8 more chips into the pot than GoodGuy. This could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, especially if he has a Queen or a Jack. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\nIf I fold, I will lose the 4 chips I have already put into the pot. However, this could be a safer option if I believe that GoodGuy has a King. \n\nPlan 3: Check\nIf I check, I will not put any more chips into the pot. This could be a good option if I believe that GoodGuy has a Queen or a Jack and I want to see the next public card before making a decision. \n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\nIf GoodGuy has a Queen (55% probability), he will likely call (60%) or fold (40%). If he calls, I will likely lose (as the public card is a King). If he folds, I will win. \nIf GoodGuy has a Jack (45% probability), he will likely call (50%) or fold (50%). If he calls, I will likely win (as I have a higher card). If he folds, I will win. \nOverall, the winning rate for this plan is 55%*40% + 45%*100% = 67.5%. The losing rate is 55%*60% = 33%. The draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\nIf I fold, I will lose regardless of what card GoodGuy has. Therefore, the winning rate for this plan is 0%. The losing rate is 100%. The draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\nIf GoodGuy has a Queen (55% probability), he will likely call (60%) or fold (40%). If he calls, I will likely lose (as the public card is a King). If he folds, I will win. \nIf GoodGuy has a Jack (45% probability), he will likely call (50%) or fold (50%). If he calls, I will likely win (as I have a higher card). If he folds, I will win. \nOverall, the winning rate for this plan is 55%*40% + 45%*100% = 67.5%. The losing rate is 55%*60% = 33%. The draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\nAfter the action, chips in the pot: 16. If win, the winning payoff would be 8. If lose, the lose payoff would be 8.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\nAfter the action, chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 0 (as I have folded). If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nPlan 3: Check\nAfter the action, chips in the pot: 4. If win, the winning payoff would be 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\nExpected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * lose payoff = 67.5% * 8 - 33% * 8 = 2.2 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\nExpected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * lose payoff = 0% * 0 - 100% * 2 = -2 chips\n\nPlan 3: Check\nExpected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * lose payoff = 67.5% * 2 - 33% * 2 = 0.7 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. However, this plan also carries the highest risk. If I want to play it safe, I could choose Plan 3 (Check). Plan 2 (Fold) should be avoided as it has a negative expected chips gain."}}
{"message": "", "94_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips, bringing the total pot to 8 chips. This is a safe strategy as it does not risk too many chips and allows me to see the public card in the next round.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will increase the pot by 4 chips to a total of 10 chips. This is a more aggressive strategy that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, especially if he is holding a Jack.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot. This is a conservative strategy that minimizes my losses if I believe GoodGuy has a stronger hand.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (30% probability), he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%). If the public card is a Queen, I will win (probability = 30% * 70% = 21%). If the public card is a Jack, I will lose (probability = 30% * 30% = 9%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely call (60%) or raise (40%). If the public card is a Queen, it will be a draw (probability = 40% * 60% = 24%). If the public card is a Jack, I will win (probability = 40% * 40% = 16%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%). If the public card is a Queen, I will win (probability = 30% * 70% = 21%). If the public card is a Jack, I will lose (probability = 30% * 30% = 9%).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (30% probability), he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%). If the public card is a Queen, I will win (probability = 30% * 70% = 21%). If the public card is a Jack, I will lose (probability = 30% * 30% = 9%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely fold (50%) or call (50%). If the public card is a Queen, it will be a draw (probability = 40% * 50% = 20%). If the public card is a Jack, I will win (probability = 40% * 50% = 20%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely fold (60%) or call (40%). If the public card is a Queen, I will win (probability = 30% * 60% = 18%). If the public card is a Jack, I will lose (probability = 30% * 40% = 12%).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot. This strategy has a 100% loss rate.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 4 chips (half of the 8-chip pot).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 4 chips (half of the 8-chip pot).\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be 5 chips (half of the 10-chip pot).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be 5 chips (half of the 10-chip pot).\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = (21% + 16% + 21%) * 4 - (9% + 9%) * 4 = 2.24 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = (21% + 20% + 18%) * 5 - (9% + 12%) * 5 = 2.45 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy with an expected gain of 2.45 chips. This strategy is also in line with my strategy improvement, which suggests raising when holding a Queen and the public card is a King or Jack. Therefore, I will choose Plan 2 (Raise)."}}
{"message": "", "94_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, GoodGuy might think I have a King and fold if he has a Queen or Jack. This would allow me to win the pot without revealing my card. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose the chips I have already put in the pot. However, if GoodGuy has a King, this would minimize my losses.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, GoodGuy might think I have a weak hand and raise. This would allow me to call and potentially win the pot if GoodGuy has a Queen or Jack.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a King (60%), he will likely call (60%) or raise (40%). I would lose in both cases.\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (40%), he will likely fold (50%) or call (50%). I would win if he folds and lose if he calls.\n- Overall, my winning rate is 20% (40% * 50%), my losing rate is 80% (60% * 100% + 40% * 50%), and my draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose regardless of GoodGuy's card. My winning rate is 0%, my losing rate is 100%, and my draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy has a King (60%), he will likely call (60%) or raise (40%). I would lose in both cases.\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (40%), he will likely call (70%) or raise (30%). I would win if he calls and lose if he raises.\n- Overall, my winning rate is 28% (40% * 70%), my losing rate is 72% (60% * 100% + 40% * 30%), and my draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 7 chips (half of the pot of 14 chips).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be 7 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose 6 chips (the chips I have already put in the pot).\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be 6 chips (half of the pot of 12 chips).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be 6 chips.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = 20% * 7 chips - 80% * 7 chips = -4.2 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = 0% * 0 chips - 100% * 6 chips = -6 chips\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = 28% * 6 chips - 72% * 6 chips = -2.64 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 3 (Check) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain (-2.64 chips). Although all plans result in a loss of chips, Plan 3 minimizes the loss."}}
{"message": "", "95_0": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 2 chips, bringing the total pot to 5 chips. This is a safe move that allows me to see the public card without risking too many chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will put 4 more chips into the pot, bringing the total pot to 7 chips. This is a more aggressive move that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, especially if he is holding a Jack.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the 1 chip I have already put into the pot, but I will not risk losing any more chips. This is a conservative move that minimizes my potential losses, but it also means I have no chance of winning the pot.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% chance), he will likely call (70% chance). If the public card is a Queen, I will win (70% * 50% = 35% winning rate). If the public card is not a Queen, I will lose (30% * 50% = 15% losing rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% chance), he will likely check (100% chance). If the public card is a Queen, it will be a draw (40% * 100% = 40% draw rate). If the public card is not a Queen, I will win (60% * 40% = 24% winning rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% chance), he will likely check (100% chance). If the public card is a Jack, I will lose (10% * 100% = 10% losing rate). If the public card is not a Jack, I will win (90% * 10% = 9% winning rate).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 35% + 24% + 9% = 68%, the losing rate is 15% + 10% = 25%, and the draw rate is 40%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (50% chance), he will likely call (70% chance). If the public card is a Queen, I will win (70% * 50% = 35% winning rate). If the public card is not a Queen, I will lose (30% * 50% = 15% losing rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% chance), he will likely call (60% chance) or fold (40% chance). If the public card is a Queen, it will be a draw (40% * 60% = 24% draw rate). If the public card is not a Queen, I will win (60% * 40% = 24% winning rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% chance), he will likely fold (100% chance). I will win (10% * 100% = 10% winning rate).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 35% + 24% + 10% = 69%, the losing rate is 15%, and the draw rate is 24%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose 100% of the time.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which is 5/2 = 2.5 chips.\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot, which is 5/2 = 2.5 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot, which is 7/2 = 3.5 chips.\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot, which is 7/2 = 3.5 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose 1 chip.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 68% * 2.5 - 25% * 2.5 = 1.075 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 69% * 3.5 - 15% * 3.5 = 1.89 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -1 chip.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with the strategy improvement of being more aggressive when holding a Queen."}}
{"message": "", "95_2": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, I can potentially win more chips if GoodGuy decides to call or raise. However, this also increases the risk of losing more chips if GoodGuy has a higher card. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot, but I won't lose any more chips in this round. This is a safe option if I believe that GoodGuy has a higher card.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I check, I won't put any more chips in the pot. This is a safe option if I believe that GoodGuy has a higher card, but it also means that I won't win any more chips in this round.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy has a King (50% probability), he will likely call (60%) or raise (40%). If he calls, I will lose (since his King beats my Queen). If he raises, I will also lose.\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (30% probability), he will likely call (60%) or fold (40%). If he calls, it will be a draw (since we both have Queens). If he folds, I will win.\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (20% probability), he will likely call (50%) or fold (50%). If he calls, I will win (since my Queen beats his Jack). If he folds, I will also win.\n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 30% (20% from Jack + 10% from Queen), the losing rate is 50% (all from King), and the draw rate is 20% (all from Queen).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose regardless of GoodGuy's card. The losing rate for this plan is 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy has a King (50% probability), he will likely call (60%) or raise (40%). If he calls, I will lose (since his King beats my Queen). If he raises, I will also lose.\n- If GoodGuy has a Queen (30% probability), he will likely check (100%). It will be a draw (since we both have Queens).\n- If GoodGuy has a Jack (20% probability), he will likely check (100%). I will win (since my Queen beats his Jack).\n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 20% (all from Jack), the losing rate is 50% (all from King), and the draw rate is 30% (all from Queen).\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (currently 8 chips, so 4 chips).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (currently 8 chips, so 4 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot (currently 4 chips).\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (currently 8 chips, so 4 chips).\n- If I lose, the losing payoff would be half of the pot (currently 8 chips, so 4 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 30% * 4 chips - 50% * 4 chips = -0.8 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = -4 chips (since I will lose the chips I have already put in the pot)\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 20% * 4 chips - 50% * 4 chips = -1.6 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best plan, followed by Plan 3 (Check), and then Plan 2 (Fold). However, considering the strategy improvement, I should also consider the number of chips I have and the number of chips GoodGuy has when deciding my actions. Since I currently have more chips than GoodGuy, I should play conservatively to maintain my lead. Therefore, I choose Plan 3 (Check)."}}
{"message": "", "96_1": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (80% probability), he will likely call (80% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will win. If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw. Overall, the winning rate is 64%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 16%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (60% probability), he will likely call (60% probability) or fold (40% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will win. If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw. Overall, the winning rate is 36%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 24%.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (80% probability), he will likely raise (20% probability) or call (80% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will win. If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw. Overall, the winning rate is 64%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 16%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (60% probability), he will likely call (60% probability) or fold (40% probability). If the public card is a King or Queen, I will win. If the public card is a Jack, it will be a draw. Overall, the winning rate is 36%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 24%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the game regardless of GoodGuy's card. The losing rate is 100%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (6 chips). If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (2 chips).\n- Plan 2: If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips). If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (2 chips).\n- Plan 3: If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (2 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 64% * 6 - 0% * 2 = 3.84 chips\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 64% * 4 - 0% * 2 = 2.56 chips\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 0 - 100% * 2 = -2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy to maximize my chips gain. It aligns with my strategy improvement to raise more aggressively when I hold a King. Therefore, I will choose Plan 1 (Raise)."}}
{"message": "", "96_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If I raise, GoodGuy might believe that I hold a King or Queen. This could potentially intimidate him into folding, especially if he holds a Jack. \n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Folding would be a safe option if I believe that GoodGuy holds a Jack, as this would result in a draw. However, considering my strong position with a King, this plan is less likely to be beneficial.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Checking could be a strategic move to confuse GoodGuy. If he believes that I hold a Jack, he might raise, allowing me to call and win the game.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he might call (80% probability). This would result in a draw. \n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he might fold (70% probability). This would result in a win for me.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he would fold (100% probability). This would result in a win for me.\n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 40%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 60%.\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose regardless of GoodGuy's card. Therefore, the winning rate for this plan is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he might raise (80% probability). This would result in a draw.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he might fold (70% probability). This would result in a win for me.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he would fold (100% probability). This would result in a win for me.\n- Overall, the winning rate for this plan is 40%, the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 60%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips).\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- If I fold, I would lose 4 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- If win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n- If lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (4 chips).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- Expected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 40% * 8 - 0% * 8 = 3.2 chips\n\nPlan 2: Fold\n- Expected chips gain = 0% * 0 - 100% * 4 = -4 chips\n\nPlan 3: Check\n- Expected chips gain = 40% * 4 - 0% * 4 = 1.6 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) would be the best strategy to implement. This plan aligns with the strategy improvement of raising more aggressively when holding a King or Queen."}}
{"message": "", "97_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nIf I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips, bringing the total pot to 8 chips. This is a conservative strategy that allows me to stay in the game without risking too many chips. \n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf I raise, I will increase the bet by 4 chips more than GoodGuy's current bet, bringing the total pot to 12 chips. This is a more aggressive strategy that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, but it also risks more of my chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will forfeit the game and lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot. This is a defensive strategy that minimizes my losses, but it also gives up any chance of winning the pot.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nIf GoodGuy holds a King (70% probability), he will likely call (70% probability) or raise (30% probability). If he calls, I have a 50% chance of winning if the public card is a Queen, and a 50% chance of losing if the public card is a King or Jack. If he raises, I have a 50% chance of winning if the public card is a Queen, and a 50% chance of losing if the public card is a King or Jack. Overall, my winning rate for this plan is 35%, my losing rate is 35%, and my draw rate is 30%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf GoodGuy holds a King (70% probability), he will likely call (70% probability) or raise (30% probability). If he calls, I have a 50% chance of winning if the public card is a Queen, and a 50% chance of losing if the public card is a King or Jack. If he raises, I have a 50% chance of winning if the public card is a Queen, and a 50% chance of losing if the public card is a King or Jack. Overall, my winning rate for this plan is 35%, my losing rate is 35%, and my draw rate is 30%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I automatically lose the 2 chips I have already put in the pot. Therefore, my losing rate for this plan is 100%, and my winning and draw rates are both 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nAfter the action, chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 4 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nAfter the action, chips in the pot: 12. If win, the winning payoff would be 6 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 6 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nAfter the action, chips in the pot: 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1 chip.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nExpected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 35% * 4 - 35% * 4 = 0 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nExpected chips gain = winning rate * winning payoff - losing rate * losing payoff = 35% * 6 - 35% * 6 = 0 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nExpected chips gain = -100% * 1 = -1 chip.\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain for each plan, Plan 1: Call and Plan 2: Raise are both better options than Plan 3: Fold, as they have a higher expected chips gain. However, considering the strategy improvement, Plan 1: Call is the safer option as it risks fewer chips. Therefore, I will choose Plan 1: Call."}}
{"message": "", "97_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\nIf I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet and put 4 more chips into the pot. This will bring the total number of chips in the pot to 16. \n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf I raise, I will put 8 more chips into the pot, bringing the total number of chips in the pot to 20. \n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will forfeit the game and lose the chips I have already put into the pot. \n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nIf GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he will likely call (70% probability), which will result in a loss for me as a King is higher than a Queen. If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely call (40% probability) or fold (30% probability), which will result in a draw as we both have Queens. \n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he will likely call (70% probability), which will result in a loss for me as a King is higher than a Queen. If GoodGuy holds a Queen (40% probability), he will likely call (40% probability) or fold (30% probability), which will result in a draw as we both have Queens. \n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will lose the game regardless of what card GoodGuy holds. \n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nIf I win, the winning payoff would be 8 chips (half of the pot). If I lose, the lose payoff would be 8 chips (half of the pot). \n\nPlan 2: Raise\nIf I win, the winning payoff would be 10 chips (half of the pot). If I lose, the lose payoff would be 10 chips (half of the pot). \n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will lose the 4 chips I have already put into the pot. \n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\nThe expected chips gain for this plan is (0.4 * 8) - (0.6 * 8) = -1.6 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\nThe expected chips gain for this plan is (0.4 * 10) - (0.6 * 10) = -2 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nThe expected chips gain for this plan is -4 chips. \n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the expected chips gain for each plan, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. This strategy also aligns with my strategy improvement, which is to be more cautious when I hold a Queen. Therefore, I will choose to call."}}
{"message": "", "98_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans: \n\nPlan 1: 'Call' - This action will match GoodGuy's bet of 4 chips. This is a conservative approach and can be used to observe GoodGuy's next move. \n\nPlan 2: 'Raise' - This action will increase the bet by 4 chips more than GoodGuy's bet. This is an aggressive approach and can be used to pressure GoodGuy into folding or calling. \n\nPlan 3: 'Fold' - This action will forfeit the round and lose any chips I have already put into the pot. This is a defensive approach and can be used to minimize losses when I have a weak hand. \n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions (if have) and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan: \n\nPlan 1: 'Call' - If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he will likely raise (60%) or call (40%). If he raises, I will likely lose (60%). If he calls, I will likely draw (40%). If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely call (70%) or check (30%). If he calls, I will likely lose (70%). If he checks, I will likely draw (30%). If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely call (50%) or check (50%). If he calls, I will likely draw (50%). If he checks, I will likely win (50%). Overall, the winning rate for plan 1 is 5%, the losing rate is 65%, and the draw rate is 30%. \n\nPlan 2: 'Raise' - If GoodGuy holds a King (60% probability), he will likely raise (60%) or call (40%). If he raises, I will likely lose (60%). If he calls, I will likely draw (40%). If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely call (70%) or fold (30%). If he calls, I will likely lose (70%). If he folds, I will likely win (30%). If GoodGuy holds a Jack (10% probability), he will likely call (50%) or fold (50%). If he calls, I will likely draw (50%). If he folds, I will likely win (50%). Overall, the winning rate for plan 2 is 10%, the losing rate is 60%, and the draw rate is 30%. \n\nPlan 3: 'Fold' - If I fold, I will automatically lose the round. Therefore, the winning rate for plan 3 is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%. \n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan: \n\nPlan 1: 'Call' - If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (6 chips). If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (6 chips). \n\nPlan 2: 'Raise' - If I win, the winning payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips). If I lose, the lose payoff would be half of the pot (8 chips). \n\nPlan 3: 'Fold' - If I fold, I will lose the 2 chips I have already put into the pot. \n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan: \n\nPlan 1: 'Call' - The expected chips gain for plan 1 is (5% * 6 chips) - (65% * 6 chips) = -3.6 chips. \n\nPlan 2: 'Raise' - The expected chips gain for plan 2 is (10% * 8 chips) - (60% * 8 chips) = -4.8 chips. \n\nPlan 3: 'Fold' - The expected chips gain for plan 3 is 0 chips - (100% * 2 chips) = -2 chips. \n\nPlan Selection: \n\nBased on the expected chips gain, the best plan is to 'Fold'. This plan minimizes the expected loss of chips. Although this plan does not allow me to win the round, it prevents me from losing more chips. This strategy aligns with my strategy improvement to be more conservative when I have a weak hand."}}
{"message": "", "99_1": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If I call, I will match GoodGuy's bet, bringing the pot to 6 chips. This is a safe strategy that allows me to stay in the game without risking too many chips. \n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If I raise, I will increase the bet by 4 chips, bringing the pot to 10 chips. This is a more aggressive strategy that could potentially intimidate GoodGuy into folding, especially if he is holding a Queen or Jack.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will forfeit the game, losing the 2 chips I have already put in the pot. This is the most conservative strategy and would be a safe choice if I believed GoodGuy had a stronger hand.\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (70% probability), he will likely call (60%) or fold (40%). If he calls, I will win if the public card is a King or Jack (66.67% win rate), and lose if it's a Queen (33.33% lose rate). If he folds, I will win (100% win rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely fold (70%) or call (30%). If he folds, I will win (100% win rate). If he calls, I will win if the public card is a King or Queen (66.67% win rate), and draw if it's a Jack (33.33% draw rate).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 1 is 80%, the losing rate is 13.33%, and the draw rate is 6.67%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (70% probability), he will likely fold (50%) or call (50%). If he folds, I will win (100% win rate). If he calls, I will win if the public card is a King or Jack (66.67% win rate), and lose if it's a Queen (33.33% lose rate).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely fold (70%) or call (30%). If he folds, I will win (100% win rate). If he calls, I will win if the public card is a King or Queen (66.67% win rate), and draw if it's a Jack (33.33% draw rate).\n- Overall, the winning rate for Plan 2 is 85%, the losing rate is 11.67%, and the draw rate is 3.33%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the game, resulting in a 100% lose rate.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3 chips.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 10. If win, the winning payoff would be 5 chips. If lose, the lose payoff would be 5 chips.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- After the action, Chips in the pot: 2. If lose, the lose payoff would be 1 chip.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Call\n- Expected Chips Gain = 0.8 * 3 - 0.1333 * 3 = 2 chips\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- Expected Chips Gain = 0.85 * 5 - 0.1167 * 5 = 3.665 chips\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- Expected Chips Gain = -1 chip\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 2 (Raise) is the best strategy, followed by Plan 1 (Call), and Plan 3 (Fold). Therefore, I will choose to raise."}}
{"message": "", "99_3": {"plan": "Make Reasonable Plans:\n\nPlan 1: Raise and say \"I'm feeling lucky today, GoodGuy.\"\nPlan 2: Check and say \"Your move, GoodGuy.\"\nPlan 3: Fold and say \"I'll let you have this one, GoodGuy.\"\n\nPotential GoodGuy's actions and Estimate Winning/Lose/Draw Rate for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (25% chance), he will likely call (20% chance). This results in a draw (5% overall chance).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (45% chance), he will likely fold (50% chance). This results in a win (22.5% overall chance).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% chance), he will likely fold (70% chance). This results in a win (21% overall chance).\n- Overall winning rate for Plan 1: 43.5%, losing rate: 0%, draw rate: 5%.\n\nPlan 2: Check\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (25% chance), he will likely raise (80% chance). This results in a draw (20% overall chance).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (45% chance), he will likely call (50% chance). This results in a win (22.5% overall chance).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% chance), he will likely fold (70% chance). This results in a win (21% overall chance).\n- Overall winning rate for Plan 2: 43.5%, losing rate: 0%, draw rate: 20%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (25% chance), he will likely check (80% chance). This results in a loss (20% overall chance).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (45% chance), he will likely check (50% chance). This results in a loss (22.5% overall chance).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% chance), he will likely check (70% chance). This results in a loss (21% overall chance).\n- Overall winning rate for Plan 3: 0%, losing rate: 63.5%, draw rate: 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n\nPlan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 14. If win, the winning payoff would be 7. If lose, the lose payoff would be 7.\nPlan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\nPlan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 6. If win, the winning payoff would be 3. If lose, the lose payoff would be 3.\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n\nPlan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 43.5% * 7 - 0% * 7 = 3.045\nPlan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 43.5% * 3 - 0% * 3 = 1.305\nPlan 3: Expected Chips Gain = 0% * 3 - 63.5% * 3 = -1.905\n\nPlan Selection:\n\nBased on the expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy to adopt in this situation. This plan also aligns with the strategy improvement of continuing to raise when holding a King."}}
{"message": "", "100_1": {"plan": "Plan 1: Call\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70% probability), he will likely raise (30%) or call (70%). If he raises, I will lose as we both have Kings, but he has more chips in the pot. If he calls, it will be a draw. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 21% (70% * 30%), and the draw rate is 49% (70% * 70%).\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely raise (40%) or call (60%). If he raises or calls, I will win as my King is higher than his Queen. Overall, the winning rate is 30% (30% * 100%), the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 2: Raise\n- If GoodGuy holds a King (70% probability), he will likely raise (30%) or call (70%). If he raises or calls, I will lose as we both have Kings, but he has more chips in the pot. Overall, the winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 70% (70% * 100%), and the draw rate is 0%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (30% probability), he will likely raise (40%) or call (60%). If he raises or calls, I will win as my King is higher than his Queen. Overall, the winning rate is 30% (30% * 100%), the losing rate is 0%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\n- If I fold, I will lose the chips I have already put into the pot. The winning rate is 0%, the losing rate is 100%, and the draw rate is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\n- Plan 1: If I win, the winning payoff would be 6 chips (half of the pot). If I lose, the losing payoff would be 2 chips (half of the pot).\n- Plan 2: If I win, the winning payoff would be 10 chips (half of the pot). If I lose, the losing payoff would be 6 chips (half of the pot).\n- Plan 3: If I lose, the losing payoff would be 2 chips (half of the pot).\n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\n- Plan 1: Expected Chips Gain = 30% * 6 - 21% * 2 = 1.18 chips\n- Plan 2: Expected Chips Gain = 30% * 10 - 70% * 6 = -2.0 chips\n- Plan 3: Expected Chips Gain = -100% * 2 = -2 chips\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Call) is the best strategy as it has the highest expected chips gain. This strategy also aligns with my strategy improvement, which suggests being aggressive when holding a King."}}
{"message": "", "100_3": {"plan": "Plan 1: Raise\nIf I raise, I will put 8 more chips into the pot, making the total pot 16 chips. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (70% probability), he will likely call (60%) or raise (40%). If he calls, the game will end and I will win because my pair of Kings beats his Queen. If he raises, I will call and still win. So, the winning rate for this plan is 100%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely call (50%) or fold (50%). If he calls, I will win because my pair of Kings beats his Jack. If he folds, I will also win. So, the winning rate for this plan is also 100%.\n\nPlan 2: Check\nIf I check, the total pot remains at 8 chips. \n\n- If GoodGuy holds a Queen (70% probability), he will likely check (60%) or raise (40%). If he checks, the game will end and I will win because my pair of Kings beats his Queen. If he raises, I will call and still win. So, the winning rate for this plan is 100%.\n- If GoodGuy holds a Jack (30% probability), he will likely check (50%) or fold (50%). If he checks, I will win because my pair of Kings beats his Jack. If he folds, I will also win. So, the winning rate for this plan is also 100%.\n\nPlan 3: Fold\nIf I fold, I will lose the game. So, the winning rate for this plan is 0%.\n\nPotential believes about the number of winning and lose payoffs for each plan:\nPlan 1: After the action, Chips in the pot: 16. If win, the winning payoff would be 8. \nPlan 2: After the action, Chips in the pot: 8. If win, the winning payoff would be 4. \nPlan 3: After the action, Chips in the pot: 4. If lose, the lose payoff would be 2. \n\nEstimate Expected Chips Gain for Each Plan:\nPlan 1: Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Lose rate * Lose Payoff = 1 * 8 - 0 * 2 = 8\nPlan 2: Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Lose rate * Lose Payoff = 1 * 4 - 0 * 2 = 4\nPlan 3: Winning rate * Winning Payoff - Lose rate * Lose Payoff = 0 * 8 - 1 * 2 = -2\n\nPlan Selection:\nBased on the estimated expected chips gain, Plan 1 (Raise) is the best strategy. It has the highest expected chips gain and aligns with my strategy improvement to be aggressive when I hold a King and the public card matches my card."}}
