Data-Guided Discovery of Ocean Dynamics

Qi-fan Wu, Dion Häfner, Roman Nuterman, Guido Vettoretti, Markus Jochum

Keywords: Data-Driven, Climate Dynamics

Abstract: From paleoclimate records we know that during the last 100,000 years parts of the North Atlantic ocean circulation have collapsed and recovered frequently. Only recently has the climate community been able to reproduce these Dansgaard-Oeschger events with numerical simulations of Earth System Models. However, simulations are computationally expensive and since an analytical framework for this circulation is missing, it is not yet clear what causes recovery or collapses. Here, we use sparse regression framework to build a set of stochastic differential equations that emulate the Earth System Models' behavior and use it to show that collapses are deterministic, but recoveries are stochastically forced.

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Submission Number: 14