Parameter estimation in stochastic differential equations with Markov chain Monte Carlo and non-linear Kalman filtering

Isambi S. Mbalawata, Simo Särkkä, Heikki Haario

Abstract: This paper is concerned with parameter estimation in linear and non-linear Itô type stochastic differential equations using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The MCMC methods studied in this paper are the Metropolis–Hastings and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithms. In these kind of models, the computation of the energy function gradient needed by HMC and gradient based optimization methods is non-trivial, and here we show how the gradient can be computed with a linear or non-linear Kalman filter-like recursion. We shall also show how in the linear case the differential equations in the gradient recursion equations can be solved using the matrix fraction decomposition. Numerical results for simulated examples are presented and discussed in detail.

External IDs:dblp:journals/cstat/MbalawataSH13