Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on essential health services: a comparison of interrupted time series analysis using Prophet and Poisson regression models

William Ogallo, Irene Wanyana, Girmaw Abebe Tadesse, Catherine Wanjiru, Victor Akinwande, Steven Kabwama, Sekou Lionel Remy, Charles Wachira, Sharon Okwako, Susan Kizito, Rhoda Wanyenze, Suzanne Kiwanuka, Aisha Walcott-Bryant

Abstract: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) altered healthcare utilization patterns. However, there is a dearth of literature comparing methods for quantifying the extent to which the pandemic disrupted healthcare service provision in sub-Saharan African countries.