Deep Learning Based Multistep Solar Forecasting for PV Ramp-Rate Control Using Sky Images

Haoran Wen, Yang Du, Xiaoyang Chen, Enggee Lim, Huiqing Wen, Lin Jiang, Wei Xiang

Abstract: Solar forecasting is one of the most promising approaches to address the intermittent photovoltaic (PV) power generation by providing predictions before upcoming ramp events. In this article, a novel multistep forecasting (MSF) scheme is proposed for PV power ramp-rate control (PRRC). This method utilizes an ensemble of deep ConvNets without additional time series models (e.g., recurrent neural network (RNN) or long short-term memory) and exogenous variables, thus more suitable for industrial applications. The MSF strategy can make multiple predictions in comparison with a single forecasting point produced by a conventional method while maintaining the same high temporal resolution. Besides, stacked sky images that integrate temporal-spatial information of cloud motions are used to further improve the forecasting performance. The results demonstrate a favorable forecasting accuracy in comparison to the existing forecasting models with the highest skill score of 17.7%. In the PRRC application, the MSF-based PRRC can detect more ramp-rates violations with a higher control rate of 98.9% compared with the conventional forecasting-based control. Thus, the PV generation can be effectively smoothed with less energy curtailment on both clear and cloudy days using the proposed approach.