Active Risk Estimation

Christoph Sawade, Niels Landwehr, Steffen Bickel, Tobias Scheffer

Abstract: We address the problem of evaluating the risk of a given model accurately at minimal labeling costs. This problem occurs in situations in which risk estimates cannot be obtained from held-out training data, because the training data are unavailable or do not reflect the desired test distribution. We study active risk estimation processes in which instances are actively selected by a sampling process from a pool of unlabeled test instances and their labels are queried. We derive the sampling distribution that minimizes the estimation error of the active risk estimator when used to select instances from the pool. An analysis of the distribution that governs the estimator leads to confidence intervals. We empirically study conditions under which the active risk estimate is more accurate than a standard risk estimate that draws equally many instances from the test distribution.