Modeling Presymptomatic Spread in Epidemics via Mean-Field Games

Sukru Yagiz Olmez, Shubham Aggarwal, Jin-Won Kim, Erik Miehling, Tamer Basar, Matthew West, Prashant G. Mehta

Abstract: This paper is concerned with developing mean-field game models for the evolution of epidemics. Specifically, an agent’s decision – to be socially active in the midst of an epidemic – is modeled as a mean-field game with health-related costs and activity-related rewards. By considering the fully and partially observed versions of this problem, the role of information in guiding an agent’s rational decision is highlighted. The main contributions of the paper are to derive the equations for the mean-field game in both fully and partially observed settings of the problem, to present a complete analysis of the fully observed case, and to present some analytical results for the partially observed case.