Monkeypox with Cross Infection Hypothesis via Epidemiological Mode

Tahir Khan, zhiqiang xu

Abstract: A new re-emerging infectious disease of monkeypox 2022 is structurally related to smallpox that is induced by the monkeypox viruses and has caused 59,606 active cases with 18 deaths up to September 15, 2022. To end this ongoing epidemic, there is a need for population-wide control policies like reducing social interaction by keeping social distance, treatment of infected individuals, and restriction on animals, etc. We forecast the progression of the epidemic and come up with an efficient control mechanism by formulating a mathematical model. The biological feasibility and dynamical behavior of the proposed model are then investigated together with sensitivity analysis to obtain the effect of various epidemic parameters mitigating the spread of the disease. Subsequently, by taking non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical intervention strategies as control measures, an optimal control theory is applied to mitigate the fatality of the disease to minimize the infectious population and reduce the cost of controls, we construct an objective functional and solve it by using Pontryagin’s maximum principle. Finally, extensive numerical simulations are performed to show the impact of the application of intervention mechanisms in controlling the transmission of the monkeypox epidemic.

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