Estimating the impact of the Russian invasion on the displacement of graduating high school students in Ukraine

Tetiana Zakharchenko, Andrew Bell, Nazarii Drushchak, Oleksandra Konopatska, Falaah Arif Khan, Julia Stoyanovich

Abstract: On 24 February 2022, Russia began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The war has dramatically impacted every area of life in Ukraine, including education. In this paper, we curate a uniquely comprehensive dataset of standardized exam outcomes used for admissions to higher education institutions in Ukraine—analogous to the Standardized Aptitude Test (SAT) in the United States—to provide strong estimates of student displacement and the first analysis of student drop-off, or decline of participation in the Ukrainian education system, following the Russian full-scale invasion. We conducted descriptive statistical analysis, which included computing and comparing means across groups of students, conditioned on geographic location, migration pattern, and demographics, coupled with data visualization. We found that, among the graduating Ukrainian high school students in 2022, approximately 36,500 (16%) were...