The association between intersystem prison transfers and COVID-19 incidence in a state prison system

Lauren Brinkley-Rubinstein, Katherine LeMasters, Phuc Nguyen, Kathryn Nowotny, David Cloud, Alexander Volfovsky

Abstract:

Prisons are the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Media reports have focused on
whether transfers of incarcerated people between prisons have been the source of out-
breaks. Our objective was to examine the relationship between intersystem prison transfers
and COVID-19 incidence in a state prison system. We assessed the change in the means of
the time-series of prison transfers and their cross-correlation with the time-series of COVID-
19 tests and cases. Regression with automatic detection of multiple change-points was
used to identify important changes to transfers. There were over 20,000 transfers between
the state’s prisons from January through October 2020. Most who were transferred (82%),
experienced a single transfer. Transfers between prisons are positively related to future
COVID-19 case rates but transfers are not reactive to current case rates. To mitigate the
spread of COVID-19 in carceral settings, it is crucial for transfers of individuals between
facilities to be limited.