Words That Unite The World: A Unified Framework for Deciphering Central Bank Communications

Agam Shah, Siddhant Sukhani, Huzaifa Pardawala, Saketh Budideti, Riya Bhadani, Rudra Gopal, Siddhartha Somani, Rutwik Routu, Michael Galarnyk, Soungmin Lee, Arnav Hiray, Akshar Ravichandran, Eric Kim, Pranav Aluru, Joshua Zhang, Sebastian Jaskowski, Veer Guda, Meghaj Tarte, Liqin Ye, Spencer Gosden et al. (7 additional authors not shown)

Keywords: Monetary Policy, Stance Detection, Temporal Orientation, Uncertainty Estimation, Transfer Learning, Human Evaluation, Geographical Diversity

Abstract:

Central banks around the world play a crucial role in maintaining economic stability. Deciphering policy implications in their communications is essential, especially as misinterpretations can disproportionately impact vulnerable populations. To address this, we introduce the World Central Banks (WCB) dataset, the most comprehensive monetary policy corpus to date, comprising over 380k sentences from 25 central banks across diverse geographic regions, spanning 28 years of historical data. After uniformly sampling 1k sentences per bank (25k total) across all available years, we annotate and review each sentence using dual annotators, disagreement resolutions, and secondary expert reviews. We define three tasks: Stance Detection, Temporal Classification, and Uncertainty
Estimation, with each sentence annotated for all three. We benchmark seven Pretrained Language Models (PLMs) and nine Large Language Models (LLMs) (Zero-Shot, Few-Shot, and with annotation guide) on these tasks, running 15,075 benchmarking experiments. We find that a model trained on aggregated data across banks significantly surpasses a model trained on an individual bank's data, confirming the principle *"the whole is greater than the sum of its parts."* Additionally, rigorous human evaluations, error analyses, and predictive tasks validate our framework's economic utility. Our artifacts are accessible through the HuggingFace and GitHub under the CC-BY-NC-SA 4.0 license.

Dataset URL: https://huggingface.co/datasets/gtfintechlab/all_annotated_sentences_25000

Code URL: https://github.com/gtfintechlab/WorldCentralBanks

Primary Area: Evaluation (e.g., data collection methodology, data processing methodology, data analysis methodology, meta studies on data sources, extracting signals from data, replicability of data collection and data analysis and validity of metrics, validity of data collection experiments, human-in-the-loop for data collection, human-in-the-loop for data evaluation)

Submission Number: 722