On Information-Theoretic Measures of Predictive Uncertainty

Kajetan Schweighofer, Lukas Aichberger, Mykyta Ielanskyi, Sepp Hochreiter

Keywords: Predictive Uncertainty, information-theory, cross-entropy

TL;DR: The paper proposes a unifying framework for information-theoretic predictive uncertainty measures, categorizing them based on the predicting model and true model approximation, and empirically evaluates their effectiveness across various tasks.

Abstract: Reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty is crucial for machine learning applications, particularly in high-stakes scenarios where hedging against risks is essential. Despite its significance, there is no universal agreement on how to best quantify predictive uncertainty. In this work, we revisit core concepts to propose a framework for information-theoretic measures of predictive uncertainty. Our proposed framework categorizes predictive uncertainty measures according to two factors: (I) The predicting model (II) The approximation of the true predictive distribution. Examining all possible combinations of these two factors, we derive a set of predictive uncertainty measures that includes both known and newly introduced ones. We extensively evaluate these measures across a broad set of tasks, identifying conditions under which certain measures excel. Our findings show the importance of aligning the choice of uncertainty measure with the predicting model on in-distribution (ID) data, the limitations of epistemic uncertainty measures for out-of-distribution (OOD) data, and that the disentanglement between measures varies substantially between ID and OOD data. Together, these insights provide a more comprehensive understanding of predictive uncertainty measures, revealing their implicit assumptions and relationships.

Code Link: https://github.com/ml-jku/uncertainty-measures

Readers: auai.org/UAI/2025/Conference, auai.org/UAI/2025/Conference/Area_Chairs, auai.org/UAI/2025/Conference/Reviewers, auai.org/UAI/2025/Conference/Submission493/Authors, auai.org/UAI/2025/Conference/Submission493/Reproducibility_Reviewers

Submission Number: 493