Performance evaluation method of cyber attack behaviour forecasting based on mitigation

Changhee Choi, Sunguk Shin, Chanho Shin

Abstract: Recently, most of the processes are being computerized, due to the development of information and communication technology. In proportion to this, cyber-attacks are also increasing, and state-sponsored cyber-attacks are becoming a great threat to the country. These attacks are often composed of stages and proceed step-by-step, so for defense, it is necessary to predict the next action and perform appropriate mitigation. To this end, the paper proposes a mitigation-based performance evaluation method. We developed the new true positive which can have a value between 0 and 1 according to the mitigation. The experiment result and case studies show that the proposed method can effectively measure forecasting results under cyber security defense system.