Model-based Bayesian Seismic Monitoring

Nimar S. Arora

Abstract: Author(s): Arora, Nimar S. | Advisor(s): Russell, Stuart | Abstract: This thesis presents the underlying probabilistic model, the parameterestimation, and the inference algorithm of NET-VISA, NetworkProcessing Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis. NET-VISA is an OpenUniverse Probability Model (OUPM) for seismic events, the transmissionof seismic waves through the earth, and their detection (or misdetection) at stations, as well as a model for spurious detections.The probabilistic model allows for seamless integration of various disparate sources of information. Applied in the context of the International Monitoring System (IMS), a global sensor network developed for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), NET-VISA achieves a reduction of around 60% in the number of missed events compared to the currently deployed system. It also finds events that are missed by the human analysts who post-process the IMS output.