A Predictive Optimization Framework for Hierarchical Demand Matching

Naoto Ohsaka, Tomoya Sakai, Akihiro Yabe

Abstract: Predictive optimization is a framework for designing an entire data-analysis pipeline that comprises both prediction and optimization, to be able to maximize overall throughput performance. In practical demand analysis, a knowledge of hierarchies, which might be geographical or categorical, is recognized as useful, though such additional knowledge has not been taken into account in existing predictive optimization. In this paper, we propose a novel hierarchical predictive optimization pipeline that is able to deal with a wide range of applications including inventory management. Based on an existing hierarchical demand prediction model, we present a stochastic matching framework that can manage prediction-uncertainty in decision making. We further provide a greedy approximation algorithm for solving demand matching on hierarchical structures. In experimental evaluations on both artificial and real-world data, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed hierarchical-predictive-optimization pipeline.