Simulating political and attack dynamics of the 2007 Estonian cyber attacks

Asmeret Bier Naugle, Michael L. Bernard, Itamara Lochard

Abstract: The Republic of Estonia faced a series of cyber attacks and riots in 2007 that seemed to be highly coordinated and politically motivated, causing short-lived but substantial impact to Estonia's cyber and economic systems. Short-term harm from these hybrid incidents led to long-term improvements and leadership by Estonia in the cyber arena. We created a causal model of these attacks to simulate their dynamics. The model uses the DYMATICA framework, a cognitive-system dynamics structure used to quantify and simulate elicited information from subject matter experts. This historical case study underscores how cyber warfare can be a major threat to modern society, and how it can be combined with information operations and kinetic effects to create further disruption. Given states' potential vulnerability to cyber attacks, a deeper understanding of how to analyze, prevent, defend, and utilize the aftermath of these for improvement to systems is critical, as is insight into the fundamental rationale of the outcomes.