The global conditions of China’s economic development: how does globalisation affect China and China globalisation?

Miklós Dr. Losoncz

Keywords: Globalisation, China, middle-income trap.

TL;DR: The paper analyses the impact of globalisation on China's future economic development from the point of view of avoiding the middle-income trap.

Abstract: In the past few years, not only China’s economic development has undergone significant changes but due to the recent non-economic shocks such as the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war against Ukraine, its global external environment as well. The primary objective of this paper is to identify the future trends in globalisation and their impact on the prospects for China’s economy and the room for manoeuvring of its economic policy. The driving principle is to what extent the external economic environment support or restrains avoiding the middle-income trap in China. The analysis comprises issues and areas such as the softening of the rules-based world order, security and trade policy, sanctions, export and import controls, trade in goods and services, capital flows including foreign direct investments, commodity prices, etc. Since China is not only a rule-taker but simultaneously a rule-maker, the secondary objective is to identify China’s probable impact on globalisation. The nature of the paper is impact analysis based on quantitative and qualitative methods. The conclusions are future-oriented. It is assumed that there is a research gap in the systematic mapping of the external economic environment on China’s development from the point of view of the middle-income trap.