Smoothing-Based Conformal Prediction for Balancing Efficiency and Interpretability

Mingyi Zheng, Hongyu Jiang, Yizhou Lu, Jiaye Teng

Keywords: Conformal Prediction, Smoothing, Interpretability

TL;DR: SCD-split integrates smoothing into conformal prediction to produce more interpretable prediction sets.

Abstract: Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free framework for constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets. While popular variants such as CD-split improve CP’s efficiency, they often yield prediction sets composed of multiple disconnected subintervals, which are difficult to interpret. In this paper, we propose SCD-split, which incorporates smoothing operations into the CP framework. Such smoothing operations potentially help merge the subintervals, thus leading to interpretable prediction sets. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that SCD-split balances the interval length and the number of disconnected subintervals. Theoretically, under specific conditions, SCD-split provably reduces the number of disconnected subintervals while maintaining comparable coverage guarantees and interval length compared with CD-split.

Primary Area: probabilistic methods (Bayesian methods, variational inference, sampling, UQ, etc.)

Submission Number: 10481