Uncertainty analysis and interval prediction of LEDs lifetimes

Roberto Rocchetta, Zhouzhao Zhan, Willem D. van Driel, Alessandro Di Bucchianico

Abstract: Highlights•Novel framework for LED lifetime prediction and uncertainty quantification.•New database for LED durability analysis comprising accelerated degradation data.•KM and P-boxes quantify the uncertainty in low-magnitude lumen maintenance failures.•Physics-informed IPM are introduced and offer interval-valued Lp predictions.•Epistemic uncertainty quantified via bounds on the IPM error probability.