Lost in Prediction: Why Social Media Narratives Don't Help Macroeconomic Forecasting?
Blogpost Url: https://d2jud02ci9yv69.cloudfront.net/2025-04-28-lost-in-prediction-32/blog/lost-in-prediction/
Abstract: Can we predict the macroeconomy by analyzing the narratives people share on social media? We dove deep into the world of Narrative Economics, using NLP models to analyze millions of viral tweets and see if they could help us predict the fluctuations of macroeconomic indicators. 🚨 Spoiler alert: it's not that easy! Join us as we explore the interesting relationship between narratives, social media, and macroeconomy, and uncover the challenges of turning narratives into treasure.
Conflict Of Interest: The blogpost extends the discussion over results of a wide research that we worked on for 3 years. Over the years we did a lot of experiments, the technology changed all the time and we got a lot of negative results. We have a paper which is focused on the technical experiments and these negative results. In the blogpost, we discussed broader aspects that do not naturally fit in the paper, adding additional insights, perspectives and discussion.
Prior to the submission we made sure with the track organizers that there is no conflict between the paper and the blog.
To keep the submission anonymous, we did not cite the paper in the blogpost and wrote as a footnote that a citation will be added in the camera ready version.
Thank you
Submission Number: 36
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