Designing Discontinuities

Ibtihal Ferwana, Suyong Park, Ting-Yi Wu, Lav R. Varshney

Keywords: quantization theory, causal inference, discontinuity regression, dynamic programming, reinforcement learning

Abstract: Discontinuities can be fairly arbitrary but also cause a significant impact on outcomes in social systems. Indeed, their arbitrariness is why they have been used to infer causal relationships among variables in numerous settings. Regression discontinuity from econometrics assumes the existence of a discontinuous variable that splits the population into distinct partitions to estimate causal effects. Here we consider the \emph{design} of partitions for a given discontinuous variable to optimize a certain effect. To do so, we propose a quantization-theoretic approach to optimize the effect of interest, first learning the causal effect size of a given discontinuous variable and then applying dynamic programming for optimal quantization design of discontinuities that balance the gain and loss in the effect size. We also develop a computationally-efficient reinforcement learning algorithm for the dynamic programming formulation of optimal quantization. We demonstrate our approach by designing optimal time zone borders for counterfactuals of social capital.

Submission Number: 22