Optimized Configuration of Exponential Smoothing and Extreme Learning Machine for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Hao-Fan Yang, Tharam S. Dillon, Elizabeth Chang, Yi-Ping Phoebe Chen

Abstract: Traffic flow forecasting is a useful technology applied to solve traffic congestion problems and to improve transportation mobility. Neural networks related approaches have been applied to develop traffic forecasting models for more than two decades. Since neural networks are sensitivity in parameters selection, selecting appropriate modeling configuration is essential to improve the accuracy and efficiency of traffic flow prediction. However, this is usually conducted by the trial-and-error method, which is very time consuming while involving too many design factors. Therefore, this paper utilizes a robust and systematic optimization approach, the Taguchi method, for obtaining the optimized configuration of the proposed exponential smoothing and extreme learning machine forecasting model. The developed model is applied to real-world data collected from freeways and highways in the United Kingdom and is compared with three existing forecasting models. The results indicate that the Taguchi method is efficient and capable for the forecasting model design and the proposed model with the optimized configuration has superior performance in traffic flow forecasting with approximate 91% and 88% accuracy rate in freeway and highway in both peak and nonpeak traffic periods.