The Scaling Law in Astronomical Time Series Data
Keywords: Astronomy, Time Series, GPT, Scaling Law
TL;DR: Autogressive generative modeling on time series of stellar brightness follows the scaling law, and is a strong representation learner.
Abstract: Analyzing time series of fluxes from stars, known as stellar light curves, can reveal valuable information about stellar properties. However, most current methods rely on extracting summary statistics, and studies using deep learning have been limited to supervised approaches. In this research, we investigate the scaling law properties that emerge when learning from astronomical time series data using self-supervised techniques. By employing the GPT-2 architecture, we show the learned representation improves as the number of parameters increases from $10^4$ to $10^9$, with no signs of performance plateauing. We demonstrate that a self-supervised Transformer model achieves 3-10 times the sample efficiency compared to the state-of-the-art supervised learning model when inferring the surface gravity of stars as a downstream task. Our research lays the groundwork for analyzing stellar light curves by examining them through large-scale auto-regressive generative models.
Submission Number: 94
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