When Causal Dynamics Matter: Adapting Causal Strategies through Meta-Aware Interventions

Moritz Willig, Tim Tobiasch, Devendra Singh Dhami, Kristian Kersting

Keywords: Meta-Causality, Causal Dynamics, Decision-Making, Reflection

Abstract: Many causal inference frameworks rely on a staticity assumption, where repeated interventions are expected to yield consistent outcomes, often summarized by metrics like the Average Treatment Effect (ATE). This assumption, however, frequently fails in dynamic environments where interventions can alter the system's underlying causal structure, rendering traditional `static' ATE insufficient or misleading. Recent works on meta-causal models (MCM) offer a promising avenue by enabling qualitative reasoning over evolving relationships. In this work, we propose a specific class of MCM with desirable properties for explicitly modeling and predicting intervention outcomes under meta-causal dynamics, together with a first method for meta-causal analysis. Through expository examples in high-impact domains of medical treatment and judicial decision-making, we highlight the severe consequences that arise when system dynamics are neglected and demonstrate the successful application of meta-causal strategies to navigate these challenges.

Primary Area: Probabilistic methods (e.g., variational inference, causal inference, Gaussian processes)

Submission Number: 8181