Supervised-CityProphet: Towards Accurate Anomalous Crowd Prediction

Soto Anno, Kota Tsubouchi, Masamichi Shimosaka

Abstract: Forecasting anomalies in urban areas is of great importance for the safety of people. In this paper, we propose Supervised-CityProphet (SCP), an anomaly score matching-based method towards accurate prediction of anomalous crowds. We re-formulate CityProphet as a regression model via data source association with mobility logs and transit search logs to leverage user's schedules and the actual number of visitors. We evaluate Supervised-CityProphet using the datasets of real mobility and transit search logs. Experimental results show that Supervised-CityProphet can predict anomalous crowds 1 week in advance more accurately than baselines.