Label Correlation Biases Direct Time Series Forecast
Keywords: Time series, Long-term Forecast
TL;DR: Learning to forecast in the frequency domain significantly enhances forecasting performance.
Abstract: Time series modeling is uniquely challenged by the presence of autocorrelation in both historical and label sequences. Current research predominantly focuses on handling autocorrelation within the historical sequence but often neglects its presence in the label sequence. Specifically, emerging forecast models mainly conform to the direct forecast (DF) paradigm, generating multi-step forecasts under the assumption of conditional independence within the label sequence. This assumption disregards the inherent autocorrelation in the label sequence, thereby limiting the performance of DF-based models. In response to this gap, we introduce the Frequency-enhanced Direct Forecast (FreDF), which bypasses the complexity of label autocorrelation by learning to forecast in the frequency domain. Our experiments demonstrate that FreDF substantially outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods and is compatible with a variety of forecast models. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/FreDF-0FB1.
Primary Area: learning on time series and dynamical systems
Code Of Ethics: I acknowledge that I and all co-authors of this work have read and commit to adhering to the ICLR Code of Ethics.
Submission Guidelines: I certify that this submission complies with the submission instructions as described on https://iclr.cc/Conferences/2025/AuthorGuide.
Reciprocal Reviewing: I understand the reciprocal reviewing requirement as described on https://iclr.cc/Conferences/2025/CallForPapers. If none of the authors are registered as a reviewer, it may result in a desk rejection at the discretion of the program chairs. To request an exception, please complete this form at https://forms.gle/Huojr6VjkFxiQsUp6.
Anonymous Url: I certify that there is no URL (e.g., github page) that could be used to find authors’ identity.
No Acknowledgement Section: I certify that there is no acknowledgement section in this submission for double blind review.
Submission Number: 13602
Loading