C$^{2}$INet: Realizing Incremental Trajectory Prediction with Prior-Aware Continual Causal Intervention
Keywords: Trajectory Prediction, Causal Intervention, Variational Inference, Continual Learning
TL;DR: This paper analyzes the spurious correlations and proposes a plug-and-play Continual Causal Intervention framework for trajectory prediction. Meanwhile, we innovatively solve the problem of catastrophic forgetting in practical applications.
Abstract: Trajectory prediction for multi-agents in complex scenarios is crucial for applications like autonomous driving. However, existing methods often overlook environmental biases, which leads to poor generalization. Additionally, hardware constraints limit the use of large-scale data across environments, and continual learning settings exacerbate the challenge of catastrophic forgetting. To address these issues, we propose the Continual Causal Intervention (C$^{2}$INet) method for generalizable multi-agent trajectory prediction within a continual learning framework. Using variational inference, we align environment-related prior with the posterior estimator of confounding factors in the latent space, thereby intervening in causal correlations that affect trajectory representation. Furthermore, we store optimal variational priors across various scenarios using a memory queue, ensuring continuous debiasing during incremental task training. The proposed C$^{2}$INet enhances adaptability to diverse tasks while preserving previous task information to prevent catastrophic forgetting. It also incorporates pruning strategies to mitigate overfitting.
Comparative evaluations on three real and synthetic complex datasets against state-of-the-art methods demonstrate that our proposed method consistently achieves reliable prediction performance, effectively mitigating confounding factors unique to different scenarios. This highlights the practical value of our method for real-world applications.
Supplementary Material: zip
Primary Area: causal reasoning
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Submission Number: 10454
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