CARPG: Cross-City Knowledge Transfer for Traffic Accident Prediction via Attentive Region-Level Parameter Generation

Guang Yang, Yuequn Zhang, Jinquan Hang, Xinyue Feng, Zejun Xie, Desheng Zhang, Yu Yang

Abstract: Traffic accident prediction is a crucial problem for public safety, emergency treatment, and urban management. Existing works leverage extensive data collected from city infrastructures to achieve encouraging performance based on various machine learning techniques but cannot achieve a good performance in situations with limited data (i.e., data scarcity). Recent developments in transfer learning bring a new opportunity to solve the data scarcity problem. In this paper, we design a novel cross-city transfer learning framework named CARPG for predicting traffic accidents in data-scarce cities. We address the unique challenge of predicting traffic accidents caused by its two fundamental characteristics, i.e., spatial heterogeneity and inherent rareness, which result in the biased performance of the state-of-the-art transfer learning methods. Specifically, we build cross-city region connections by jointly learning the spatial region representations for both source and target cities with an inter-city global graph knowledge transfer process. Further, we design an efficient attention-based parameter-generating mechanism to learn region-specific traffic accident patterns, while controlling the total number of parameters. Built upon that, we ensure that only relevant patterns are transferred to each target region during the knowledge transfer process and further to be fine-tuned. We conduct extensive experiments on three real-world datasets, and the evaluation results demonstrate the superiority of our framework compared with state-of-the-art baseline models.