A Bayesian Interpretation of the Monty Hall Problem with Epistemic Uncertainty

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Cristina E. Manfredotti, Paolo Viappiani

Published: 2021, Last Modified: 30 Jan 2026MDAI 2021EveryoneRevisionsBibTeXCC BY-SA 4.0
Abstract: The Monty Hall problem is a classic puzzle that, in addition to intriguing the general public, has stimulated research into the foundations of reasoning about uncertainty. A key insight to understanding the Monty Hall problem is to realize that the specification of the behavior of the host (i.e. Monty) of the game is fundamental. Here we go one step further and reason, in Bayesian way, in terms of epistemic uncertainty about the behavior of host, assuming subjective probabilities.