Hierarchical Bayesian inference for concurrent model fitting and comparison for group studies

Payam Piray, Amir Dezfouli, Tom Heskes, Michael J. Frank, Nathaniel D. Daw

Abstract: Author summary Computational modeling of brain and behavior plays an important role in modern neuroscience research. By deconstructing mechanisms of behavior and quantifying parameters of interest, computational modeling helps researchers to study brain-behavior mechanisms. In neuroscience studies, a dataset includes a number of samples, and often the question of interest is to characterize parameters of interest in a population: Do patients with attention-deficit hyperactive disorders exhibit lower learning rate than the general population? Do cognitive enhancers, such as Ritalin, enhance parameters influencing decision making? The success of these efforts heavily depends on statistical methods making inference about validity and robustness of estimated parameters, as well as generalizability of computational models. In this work, we present a novel method, hierarchical Bayesian inference, for concurrent model comparison, parameter estimation and inference at the population level. We show, both theoretically and experimentally, that our approach has important advantages over previous methods. The proposed method has implications for computational modeling research in group studies across many areas of psychology, neuroscience, and psychiatry.