Uncertainty Quantification of Large Language Models through Multiple Uncertainty Sources

ACL ARR 2026 January Submission4827 Authors

Keywords: LLM; Uncertainty Quantification

Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse domains. However, the reliability of responses from LLMs remains a question. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of LLMs is crucial for ensuring their reliability, especially in areas such as healthcare. Existing UQ methods, often designed around a single resource such as Natural Language Inference (NLI) or graph-based metrics, fail to capture the multifaceted nature of uncertainty in natural language generation. In this work, we propose MS-UQ, a novel Multi-Resource Uncertainty Quantification framework that integrates heterogeneous uncertainty signals into a unified measure. Our approach concatenates matrices from diverse resources and employs tensor decomposition to orthogonally disentangle unique and shared information. To ensure scalability, we construct an adaptive ensemble of outputs from different decomposition methods, enabling the incorporation of new uncertainty sources. Experiments on CoQA, NQ_Open, and HotpotQA demonstrate that MS-UQ consistently outperforms existing methods, offering a comprehensive and scalable solution for uncertainty estimation in black-box LLMs and a more robust framework for enhancing LLM reliability in high-stakes applications. Our code can be accessed at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MDUQ-First-202E/README.md.

Paper Type: Long

Research Area: Interpretability and Analysis of Models for NLP

Research Area Keywords: calibration/uncertainty

Contribution Types: Model analysis & interpretability

Languages Studied: English

Submission Number: 4827