Epistemic Uncertainty in Conformal Scores: A Unified Approach

Luben Miguel Cruz Cabezas, Vagner Silva Santos, Thiago Ramos, Rafael Izbicki

Keywords: Uncertainty Quantification, Prediction Sets, Conformal Prediction, Epistemic Uncertainty, Epistemic Modelling

TL;DR: Integrating epistemic uncertainty into conformal scores to refine predictive regions.

Abstract:

Conformal prediction methods create prediction bands with distribution-free guarantees but do not explicitly capture epistemic uncertainty, which can lead to overconfident predictions in data-sparse regions.
Although recent conformal scores have been developed to address this limitation, they are typically designed for specific tasks, such as regression or quantile regression. Moreover, they rely on particular modeling choices for epistemic uncertainty, restricting their applicability. We introduce $\texttt{EPICSCORE}$, a model-agnostic approach that enhances any conformal score by explicitly integrating epistemic uncertainty. Leveraging Bayesian techniques such as Gaussian Processes, Monte Carlo Dropout, or Bayesian Additive Regression Trees, $\texttt{EPICSCORE}$ adaptively expands predictive intervals in regions with limited data while maintaining compact intervals where data is abundant. As with any conformal method, it preserves finite-sample marginal coverage.
Additionally, it also achieves asymptotic conditional coverage. Experiments demonstrate its good performance compared to existing methods. Designed for compatibility with any Bayesian model, but equipped with distribution-free guarantees, $\texttt{EPICSCORE}$ provides a general-purpose framework for uncertainty quantification in prediction problems.

Code Link: https://github.com/Monoxido45/EPICSCORE

Readers: auai.org/UAI/2025/Conference, auai.org/UAI/2025/Conference/Area_Chairs, auai.org/UAI/2025/Conference/Reviewers, auai.org/UAI/2025/Conference/Submission464/Authors, auai.org/UAI/2025/Conference/Submission464/Reproducibility_Reviewers

Submission Number: 464