Free solar PV for Everyone to Meet Annual Climate Targets: Timing the Break-Even

Keywords: Climate change mitigation, Solar PV, Zero-capex deployment, Greenhouse gas emissions, Renewable energy policy, Social cost of carbon, Achieving climate targets

TL;DR: This paper shows that a global zero-capex solar PV program could accelerate the 1.5 °C climate break-even by five years while remaining fiscally and economically viable.

Abstract:

This paper tests a dual hypothesis: if solar PV is deployed at zero up-front cost and scaled with grid and storage build-out, can this strategy (i) deliver the annual mitigation flow required for a 1.5 °C pathway within a practical timeframe, and (ii) do so with positive social net benefit once avoided climate damages are valued?
We define the climate-target break-even as the first year in which new annual PV abatement meets the required mitigation flow. Under central assumptions, today’s record PV additions of about 0.6 TW per year imply a break-even in the late 2030s. Raising average annual additions to roughly 0.9–1.0 TW shortens this to the early 2030s, a five-year acceleration. Complementary measures such as wind, efficiency, or methane abatement bring the break-even earlier still.
On the fiscal side, we derive explicit conditions for budget neutrality that link program unit costs, discounting, and the per-tonne value of avoided damages. A policy design that dedicates carbon-linked revenues to contracts for difference can turn avoided emissions into bankable cash flows while capping fiscal risk.
The framework is transparent, reproducible, and auditable: climate and fiscal feasibility are assessed jointly from the outset, yielding clear thresholds for when zero-capex PV can close the annual mitigation gap in time and on budget. While the analysis abstracts from governance and distributional challenges, the results highlight where equity and institutional capacity will determine real-world implementation.

Submission Number: 118