A Kernel Independence Test for Random Processes

Kacper Chwialkowski, Arthur Gretton

Abstract: A non-parametric approach to the problem of testing the independence of two random processes is developed. The test statistic is the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC), which was used previously in testing independence for i.i.d. pairs of variables. The asymptotic behaviour of HSIC is established when computed from samples drawn from random processes. It is shown that earlier bootstrap procedures which worked in the i.i.d. case will fail for random processes, and an alternative consistent estimate of the p-values is proposed. Tests on artificial data and real-world forex data indicate that the new test procedure discovers dependence which is missed by linear approaches, while the earlier bootstrap procedure returns an elevated number of false positives.