Interactive Multi-Consumer Power Cooperatives with Learning and Axiomatic Cost and Risk Disaggregation

Abbas Ehsanfar, Babak Heydari

Abstract: This paper introduces a novel autonomous interactive learning cooperative (ILCP) who receives expected value and variance of load from consumers and participates in the electricity market on their behalf. Using an axiomatic approach, the share of each consumer’s payment as well as its weight in calculating the modification of total day-ahead load are formulated. This scheme applies double-seasonal smoothing exponential, a recent load forecasting technique, and a classifier for real-time to day-ahead price direction forecasting (Gaussian Nave Bayes). In addition to this, the ILCP employs interactive cooperative algorithms for both trading cooperative and consumer side. The ILCP scheme is investigated and its performance is compared to those of non-cooperative real-time pricing (RTP), LCP (non-interactive learning cooperative) and CP (non-interactive non-learning cooperative). The developed system was implemented using PJM(world’s largest wholesale electricity market) real-time and dayahead data for 2013 and half of 2014; real load profiles were selected from a set of 579 residential and commercial consumers, and weather data were applied to forecasting electricity price direction. We demonstrate the advantages of ILCP to lower the average electricity cost and to reduce unit price variations.