Optimizing Blood Transfusions and Predicting Shortages in Resource-Constrained Areas

El Arbi Belfarsi, Sophie Brubaker, Maria Valero

Abstract: Our research addresses the critical challenge of managing blood transfusions and optimizing allocation in resource-constrained regions. We present heuristic matching algorithms for donor-patient and blood bank selection, alongside machine learning methods to analyze blood transfusion acceptance data and predict potential shortages. We developed simulations to optimize blood bank operations, progressing from random allocation to a system incorporating proximity-based selection, blood type compatibility, expiration prioritization, and rarity scores. Moving from blind matching to a heuristic-based approach yielded a 28.6% marginal improvement in blood request acceptance, while a multi-level heuristic matching resulted in a 47.6% improvement. For shortage prediction, we compared Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Linear Regression, and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, trained on 170 days of historical data. Linear Regression slightly outperformed others with