Efficient Behavior-consistent Calibration for Multi-agent Market Simulation

Tianlang He, Keyan Lu, Chang Xu, Yang Liu, Weiqing Liu, S.-H. Gary Chan, Jiang Bian

Abstract: Order-driven market simulation mimics the trader behaviors to generate order streams to support interactive studies of financial strategies. In market simulator, the multi-agent approach is commonly adopted due to its explainability. Existing multi-agent systems employ heuristic search to generate order streams, which is inefficient for large-scale simulation. Furthermore, the search-based behavior calibration often leads to inconsistent trader actions under the same general market condition, making the simulation results unstable and difficult to interpret. We propose CaliSim, the first search-free calibration approach multi-agent market simulator which achieves large-scale efficiency and behavior consistency. CaliSim uses meta-learning and devises a surrogate trading system with a consistency loss function for the reproducibility of order stream and trader behaviors. Extensive experiments in the market replay and case studies show that CaliSim achieves state-of-the-art in terms of order stream reproduction with consistent trader behavior and can capture patterns of real markets.