Well-Calibrated Regression Uncertainty in Medical Imaging with Deep LearningDownload PDF

Published: 18 Apr 2020, Last Modified: 05 May 2023MIDL 2020Readers: Everyone
Keywords: bayesian approximation, variational inference
TL;DR: We recalibrate underestimated predictive uncertainty for different regression tasks in medical imaging.
Abstract: The consideration of predictive uncertainty in medical imaging with deep learning is of utmost importance. We apply estimation of predictive uncertainty by variational Bayesian inference with Monte Carlo dropout to regression tasks and show why predictive uncertainty is systematically underestimated. We suggest using $ \sigma $ scaling with a single scalar value; a simple, yet effective calibration method for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. The performance of our approach is evaluated on a variety of common medical regression data sets using different state-of-the-art convolutional network architectures. In all experiments, $ \sigma $ scaling is able to reliably recalibrate predictive uncertainty. It is easy to implement and maintains the accuracy. Well-calibrated uncertainty in regression allows robust rejection of unreliable predictions or detection of out-of-distribution samples.
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