Predicting seagrass decline due to cumulative stressors

Matthew P. Adams, Edwin J. Y. Koh, Maria P. Vilas, Catherine J. Collier, Victoria M. Lambert, Scott A. Sisson, Matias Quiroz, Eve McDonald-Madden, Len J. McKenzie, Katherine R. O'Brien

Abstract: Highlights•Easy-to-use program to predict cumulative light and temperature stress on seagrass.•Software predictions made from a new process-based model of tropical seagrass decline.•Model suggests net carbon loss rate controls shoot density decline rate in seagrass.•Model calibrated to data via two posterior-computation methods for Bayesian inference.•New generalisable cumulative stress index forecasted by model, including uncertainty.