Bitcoin price forecasting: A perspective of underlying blockchain transactions

Haizhou Guo, Dian Zhang, Siyuan Liu, Lei Wang, Ye Ding

Abstract: Highlights•We study Bitcoin price forecasting from the perspective of the underlying blockchain transactions.•We propose a novel framework to examine the volatility of Bitcoin prices and forecast its price at different time scales.•We find the trading volumes between big and small exchanges of the cryptocurrency can impact the Bitcoin price forecasting performance.•We find our proposed model can detect different trends with high forecasting performance, and we also study the impact of our model components on performance improvement.