Adaptive Traffic Forecasting on Daily Basis: A Spatio-Temporal Context Learning Approach

Xiaoyu Li, Yitian Zhang, Guodong Long, Yupeng Hu, Wenpeng Lu, Meng Chen, Chengqi Zhang, Yongshun Gong

Abstract: Traffic forecasting plays a crucial role in establishing an Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) by providing essential insights. Existing traffic forecasting relies on the assumption that there is a hidden invariant spatial-temporal pattern in the large-scale dataset. However, the traffic patterns are easily influenced by many unpredictable external factors, such as policy interventions and climate changes. Due to the dynamic nature of these exogenous factors, the traffic network’s spatial-temporal patterns are also changed, thus impacting the performance of traffic forecasting models. Thus, there is an urgent need to rethink the traffic forecasting model in a fast-adaptive manner. To solve this challenge, this paper proposes an Adaptive Spatio-Temporal Context Learning framework named ASTCL, which achieves desired forecasting accuracy using daily basis traffic data collected from dozens of sensors. ASTCL constructs adaptive spatio-temporal contexts for target locations in the traffic network and generates dynamic sequence graphs based on semantic similarities. The adaptive contexts aggregate valuable information from available data, while the graphs reveal dynamic trends in traffic properties. Further, ASTCL introduces a joint convolution and attention mechanism to model intricate spatio-temporal relationships from multiple perspectives. Extensive experiments conducted on four real-world datasets demonstrate that ASTCL achieves remarkable fast adaptability and outperforms other state-of-the-art methods by a significant margin.

External IDs:dblp:journals/tkde/LiZLHLCZG25