FairTP: A Prolonged Fairness Framework for Traffic Prediction

Jiangnan Xia, Yu Yang, Jiaxing Shen, Senzhang Wang, Jiannong Cao

Abstract: Traffic prediction is pivotal in intelligent transportation systems. Existing works focus mainly on improving overall accuracy, overlooking a crucial problem of whether prediction results will lead to biased decisions by transportation authorities. In practice, the uneven deployment of traffic sensors in different urban areas produces imbalanced data, making the traffic prediction model fail in some urban areas and leading to unfair regional decision-making that eventually severely affects equity and quality of residents’ life. Existing fairness machine learning models struggle to maintain fair traffic prediction over prolonged periods. Although these models might achieve fairness at certain time slots, this static fairness will break down as traffic conditions change. To fill this research gap, we investigate prolonged fair traffic prediction, introducing two novel fairness metrics, i.e., region-based static fairness and sensor-based dynamic fairness, tailored to fairness fluctuations over time and across areas. An innovative prolonged fairness traffic prediction framework, namely FairTP, is then proposed. FairTP achieves prolonged fairness by alternating between “sacrifice” and “benefit” the prediction accuracy of each traffic sensor or area, ensuring that the number of these two actions are balanced over time. Specifically, FairTP incorporates a state identification module to discriminate whether the traffic sensors or areas are in a “sacrifice” or “benefit” state, thereby enabling prolonged fairness-aware traffic predictions. Additionally, we devise a state-guided balanced sampling strategy to select training examples to further enhance prediction fairness by mitigating the performance disparities among areas with uneven sensor distribution over time. Extensive experiments in two real-world datasets show that FairTP significantly improves prediction fairness without causing significant accuracy degradation.